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Office Space Cost Will Have To Come Down: IWG Global · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Kind the Bloomberg Markets
• 0:13
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• 0:17
  Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Well, let us turn out
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: to commercial real estate is suffering, that's for sure. Let's
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: bring in somebody who knows a lot about it. He
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: is founder of International Workplace Group otherwise known as i
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: w G Global Marketings and joins us. Now, Mark, just
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: give us the lay of the land. First of all, Well,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: the lay of the land is not even The pandemic
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: has hit the metropolis city centers around the world. We
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: operate in a hundred twenty countries and that's been the
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: major impact. So in provincial locations countryside, we're up and
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: we're badly affected in down to down so people are
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: working close to where they live and they're working from home.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Our homework business has grown tenfold over the pandemic and
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: we're slightly hedged with that. So Mark, I guess one
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: of the questions that people are asking here is the
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  Speaker 1: future of the city center itself? And this is a
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  Speaker 1: I guess a global question. It's not just London in
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: New York. What is your view as we look towards
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: the other side of this pandemic about how the city
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: center as a work center will evolve. It changes forever.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: It's rapid evolution. Um, you know, the the cities will
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: never be the same again. We will take some time
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  Speaker 1: for the change to take place because people have to
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: get out of leases that they are already in. But
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: pretty much of all CEOs and leadership teams aren't now
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: positively in a mode of hybrid workings. Hybrid working means
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: the company saves lots of money, they can hire better talent,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: and they allow people to work either from home or
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: close to home, and they come into a sort of
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: headquarters when they need to or if they haven't got
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  Speaker 1: they live in the city itself. So, you know, hybrid
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  Speaker 1: working has such strong economic and environmental advantages. It's going
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: to happen, and it's what people want. They've whatever people say.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: For most the pandemic has gone on for too long,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: but they have been quite productive working on zoom teams
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: and the like. You know, companies. It has worked. It's
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  Speaker 1: an experiment that worked, and it will continue and it
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: will become the norm. So talk to us about occupancy rates.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Can you give us a sort of a percentage across
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: your portfolio and and also where you might be thinking
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: of getting out of commercial real estate the way it
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: is now changing it into something like storage or what
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: have you. Well, look for us. We we've we've got
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  Speaker 1: three and a half thousand buildings. We're in all sorts
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: of markets. So look, we are expanding in the countryside.
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  Speaker 1: We have been for a while actually because this change
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  Speaker 1: was occurring prethe The pandemic is just accelerated with it
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  Speaker 1: um and so we were expanding in the countryside. We
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: are adding more even in the cities. Because it's not
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: what companies are looking for a flexibility. They're looking for products.
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  Speaker 1: They don't you know, what companies don't want or want
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  Speaker 1: less of is a five or ten year least. They
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: want flexibility, they want products. So this for a company
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  Speaker 1: like ours, where we provide a fully operational office ready
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  Speaker 1: to use for a couple of people or for a
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  Speaker 1: thousand people, you know that that is what's being being
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: looked for. So we're working more with property owners who
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: at the other end of this, if they're long in
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: the market, they are looking for different ways to get
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: revenue and providing a finished product is a great way
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: to do that. So we are seeing some growth. We
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: are adding capacity in some cities. We would expect that
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: to continue. So it's more in the countryside, the cities,
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  Speaker 1: the provinces where people live, and in the cities themselves.
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  Speaker 1: Apart from adding inventory, we're having to adjust prices of
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: out our input prices. I with our partners, we're having
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  Speaker 1: to lower our costs in order to be more competitive
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  Speaker 1: because it's going to be a much more competitive marketplace
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  Speaker 1: because there's going to be less demand more supply. So
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  Speaker 1: marketing some of these big city centers and I just
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  Speaker 1: think the last time I was in London, there's cranes everywhere.
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  Speaker 1: What are some of these commercial real estate owners going
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  Speaker 1: to do with all this office space? Well, it's um,
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  Speaker 1: it's going to get repurposed. I mean, look, the real
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  Speaker 1: estate market is a market that's very fickle and I've
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  Speaker 1: I've started our business thirty one years ago and I've
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  Speaker 1: seen it go up and down, and it's it is
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  Speaker 1: markets like London that have more oscillation. The bigger the city,
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  Speaker 1: the more the move. But you know, in the future,
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  Speaker 1: you know, cities are going to have to reinvent themselves
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  Speaker 1: and become a more reasonably priced place to live. And
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  Speaker 1: you know, the cost of office place will have to
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  Speaker 1: come down over time, so it has to be economical
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  Speaker 1: for both for companies to be there. London, as an example,
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  Speaker 1: became extremely expensive per person to house someone and the
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: cost of living I you know, people finding an apartment
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  Speaker 1: close to where they live and not having to commute
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  Speaker 1: for two hours a day to get there. It's that combination.
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  Speaker 1: So there will be a repricing and I'm sure many
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  Speaker 1: cities will reinvent themselves with lower prices and a tramp
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  Speaker 1: favor back in. Hey, Mark, thank you so much for joining.
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  Speaker 1: It's just a fascinating discussion. We really appreciate your insight.
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  Speaker 1: Mark Dixon, founder and CEO of i w g A Global,
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: just giving us the view, the forecast, if you will,
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  Speaker 1: of real estate and urban centers, a major evolution taking place.
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  Speaker 1: Let's pivot to the consumer package goods business that's certainly
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  Speaker 1: seen some changes here as a result of the pandemic.
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  Speaker 1: We can do that with Jordan Gaspar Jordan's is managing
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  Speaker 1: partner and president of A f Ventures, joining us on
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  Speaker 1: the phone from Wellington, Florida. A Adventures is a women
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  Speaker 1: owned VC firm focusing on better for you consumer brands
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  Speaker 1: and categories including food and beverage, beauty and personnel care,
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  Speaker 1: health and wellness, and whole bunch of others. Jordan, thanks
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  Speaker 1: so much for joining us here. Talk to us about
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: the consumer package goods business. It seems, obviously as a
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: result of the pandemic be people are buying a lot
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  Speaker 1: more in the supermarket, going out less to eat. What
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  Speaker 1: are you seeing as some of these trends and how
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  Speaker 1: permanent might they be? Hi, thank you so much for
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: having me so UM. As you said, I imagining partner
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  Speaker 1: of Adventures, and we are a fund that exclusively invest
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: in consumer products across the verticals of food and beverage,
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  Speaker 1: personal care, pet, beauty, health and wellness UM and so
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  Speaker 1: of our over thirty five companies UM, thirty two of
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: them are food and beverage companies. And so it's been
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  Speaker 1: an an interesting year for us UM, particularly as all
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  Speaker 1: of our products are distributed UM at most of the
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  Speaker 1: major retailers as well as online. UM. You know two
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: thousand and twenty will mark the year of changing consumption patterns.
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  Speaker 1: You know, we saw um an increased emphasis of the
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  Speaker 1: consumer on self care products, UM, the rise of personalization,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: and just this general idea of food as health UM.
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  Speaker 1: You know, coming in formats like inguestible beauty. Beyond that,
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  Speaker 1: we saw the food itself, you know, continue to evolve
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  Speaker 1: as people we're focusing on you know, healthy living directed
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  Speaker 1: products like plant based alternatives. UM. But now with this
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  Speaker 1: new concept of the grab and stay option, you know,
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  Speaker 1: with so many people no longer going to eat out,
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  Speaker 1: people need to find solutions that were easily adopted in
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: their homes. UM. And so we'll see a lot of
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  Speaker 1: changes in two thousand and twenty one in terms of format,
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  Speaker 1: packaging and continents and self and and really playing into
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  Speaker 1: sort of a rise and sustainability in the space in general.
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  Speaker 1: Way to hear about some of that, but the first
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  Speaker 1: you have to give me an idea of what ingustible
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: beauty is. Yes, so inguestible beauty, I mean, you know,
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  Speaker 1: they're sort of a blurring of the line between personal care,
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  Speaker 1: beauty and food that have been occurring, and it had
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  Speaker 1: started in predated COVID, but you know, we've invested in
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: the company called a New Code, which is a line
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  Speaker 1: of products geared towards UM you know, you know, supporting skin, gut, mood, health,
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  Speaker 1: UM and covers you know, different needs states of sleep, immunity,
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  Speaker 1: focus and stress and comes in powder formats and capsules
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  Speaker 1: and tinctures and so the idea is that UM not
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: just going to be topicals that you put on your skin,
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  Speaker 1: but it's also going to be you know, things that
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  Speaker 1: you put inside your body. And so if you think
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  Speaker 1: about you know, some of the really big focus coming
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  Speaker 1: out of this year and exits in the space you know,
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  Speaker 1: v MS has been has had a really huge year
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  Speaker 1: in terms of people really thinking about how to take
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: care of themselves from within. So how are brands dealing
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  Speaker 1: UM Jordan's kind of much more of the of shopping,
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  Speaker 1: including consumer products moving to e commerce. How are they
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  Speaker 1: adopting to that. It's a new world for food and beverage, right,
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  Speaker 1: you know, we knew that we had Amazon and you know,
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  Speaker 1: detail in the form of Fresh directs UM. You know
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  Speaker 1: that we're already players in the market UM, but during COVID,
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  Speaker 1: click and collect UM and the ability for consumers to
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: be purchasing from Walmart and Target more easily. UM has
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: has really risen and and that will be a more
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  Speaker 1: permanent shift. You know, people will go back eventually UM
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: into producing shelves and brick and mortar, but there will
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  Speaker 1: be large spread adoption of some of these new UM
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: sort of sort omni distribution outlets. You know. Beyond that,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: you know, digital marketing itself is going to change. You know,
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: for the first time, we're seeing fresh and frozen food
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  Speaker 1: companies UM that are authentic young brands, developing DTWOC strategies,
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  Speaker 1: and so you know, we're going to see what comes
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  Speaker 1: out of this is just the true omni channel brands
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  Speaker 1: UM and that brands will be built expecting to be
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: sold in brick and mortar as well as directly to
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: their consumers. Jordan's how many times have you been approached
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: by SPACs in the last few months for your various
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: portfolio companies. It is it is a stack moment in
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: the summer, so UM. I think that there is an
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: enormous amount of stack activity in the market. UM And
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: and we do think that you know, SPACs will certainly
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: find some UM great partners in food and beverage in
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: particular but across consumer So go on how many times
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: are there are there portfolio companies that you might be
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: looking to go public with that way? UM, I think
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: that the public markets have really opened up for food
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: and beverage. And I think that we do see that
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: with the success of companies like Beyond and Tattooed Chef.
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  Speaker 1: There is no question, UM, there is now the strategy
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: for you know, liquidity, for these companies to not just
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: be private but also too you know in terms of
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: private act and sponsors, but to be increasingly in the
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: public markets. UM. And So There'll be a lot of
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: different outcomes, but there is it will be a big
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: year in food and beverage. So Jordan's our new products
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: coming to market during this pandemic or our consumer products
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: company saying our R and D our new product launches,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: We're gonna wait till after It depends on who you're
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: talking to. UM. So I think that from the Bantas
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: point of our portfolio, new products are certainly coming to market.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: There was you know a little bit of a brief
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: pause on innovation where pipelines were halted very temporarily early
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: on during COVID. For the UM the portfolio companies to
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: get their bearings and see, you know how things were
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: on full in retail, but that innovation was in process,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: and so there's innovation that's now in process to come
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: onto shelf and did through the back half of the
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  Speaker 1: year as well as in will in two thousand twenty
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: one because suppliers that were able to deliver and to
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: meet the expectations of their buyers were certainly allocated self space. UM.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Beyond that, there are new preferences that have been built
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: and so innovation lines are being developed off of changing
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: consumer preferences. So you know, we think innovation continues to thrive. UM.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: It will just be you know, sort of quality manufacturers
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: who have the ability to to really um properly stock
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: the shelves and to deliver in a way that people
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: can trust that the products are going to meet expectations
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: of both the retail partners and the consumer. Jordan's thank
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: you so much for joining us today. Will certainly given
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: touch of you throughout the year. No doubt there will
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: be activity among your companies. Jordan Gaspar is moniting partner
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: and president of a f Adventure is a very interesting
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: consumer and packaged goods and beauty company h venture fund.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Let's put it that way. This morning, a preceived another
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: job's claims a number frustratingly higher, much higher than expected,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: almost a million claims uh last month. Really putting pressure
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: on present like Biden too uh put through and propose
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: a much a significant fiscal stimulus plan to break it down.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: We welcome Carl Ricka Donna, Chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Carl,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: let's start with that jobless claim number. What's your takeaway? Well,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: there's good news and there's bad news, Paul. The bad
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: news is that nearly a million people filed for unemployment
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: insurance last week. But the good news is that a
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: million people will be receiving unemployment checks to support their
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: income during this difficult period for the economy and one
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: of the critical uh, you know, issues for the economy
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: of building a bridge loan until we can reopen. The
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: economy and a lot of households, whether we look at
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: the income trends or food stamp applications or other types
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: of signs of financial stress, are really in a difficult
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: period right now. So we do need to paper over
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: some of the pain, patch up some of the pain
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: with the aid in terms of food stamps, unemployment checks,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: and rebate checks from the government until we can get
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: to a post lockdown economy. In this week's data, we
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: see nearly more than two hundred thousand people more than
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: economists we're looking for claiming this week to January nine,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: which is an interesting sort of little detail in itself.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Each one of these people not a detail, of course,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: They're all human beings, and I'm curious as to why
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: economists might have got it so wrong. Are there more
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: people out there unemployed and underemployed that we're just not seeing? Well,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: I think a big factor here. There's been a little
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: bit of a mystery since early November, when lockdown measures
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: start to intensify. We really didn't see the fallout in
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: the unemployment filings data. So we we expected way back
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: by before Thanksgiving even to start to see the steady
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: move higher and jobless claims over the last really last
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: eight weeks or so. Uh, and it only happened to
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: a very limited degree, which seemed inconsistent with restaurants being
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: shut down, indoor dining bands, and all of the other
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: restrictions that are going into place. So while I hate
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: to be vindicated, Uh in looking for that that we
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: do see that showing up in today's data. So you know,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: at this time of year, there's very big seasonal factors
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: as people are laid off as cold weather sets in,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: if they had outdoor employment, for instance, or holiday related hiring,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: all of those things. Uh, they tend to distort the data.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: And this is certainly an atypical period we're in. So
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: using typical seasonal factors is hard to apply to the
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: current environment, but it's really the best we can do
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: as as statisticians. Uh. The other factor is, uh the
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: recent passage of the stimulus bill. Uh, those sweetened unemployment
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: checks and also stimulus checks. That does incentivize some people
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: who may be figured it wasn't worth filing for unemployment
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: to actually uh take the effort to do it now
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: that there will be a more enticing reward, uh if
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: their applications accepted. Carl, We're expected to hear from President
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: le Biden later today talking about perhaps fiscal stimulus plan.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: What do you really need to see in his plan? Well,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: there's the the pie in the sky version, and there's
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: the reality of a split Senate with the Vice President
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote, and so pie in
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: the sky stimulus, which could be green energy and infrastructure investment,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: and of course aid uh for uh uh you know
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: the current economic downturn. Uh. That would be great if
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: we could see that, and that was certainly force GDP
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: to a higher number. But I think the reality of
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: the situation is that we're going to see much more
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: limited stimulus. Already, Joe Mansion of West Virginia has expressed
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: some concerns about astronomical price tag, so I think the
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: reality will be we can talk about a two trillion
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: dollar plan, we're more likely to see six eight hundred billion. Carl.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Speaking of major speeches, today, we hear from Jerry J. Powell.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: Is he likely to say anything that will surprise the market?
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. J. Powell is giving speaking on
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: an academic lecture at the Princeton University Benheim Center for Finance,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: so I'm an alumni of that. So that's exciting in
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: that regard. But as an election, you know, as they
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: an opportunity to really steer the markets, this doesn't seem
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: like the right platform to be doing that. So at
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: best I think we might get some insight into how
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: he is thinking about the inflation and growth landscape, but
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: this is not the opportunity to really create a new
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: policy signal. Carl Rick Donna, thank you as always. Carl
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: is chief you as economist for Bloomberg Economics, and we
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: always appreciate his insights. Once again, that initial jobs claims
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: data coming out and just you know, sending chills down
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: our spines. Sixty five thousand people filing claims to the
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: week of January nine, and of course the week earlier
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: was revised, but only by five thousand. It's it's not
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: like we're not seeing what's in the data, or it's
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: not like yet the data or opaque or anything like that.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: We also got continuing claims obviously five point two seven
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: one million, which is more than we were anticipating as well.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: And it's on Wall Street time for Bloomberg Opinion Today
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: we're joined by at Lisa Martinouzi, Bloomberg Opinion columnists covering finance,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: and she has a fascinating column out today talking about
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: and analyzing the relationship between President Trump, his busin this
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: is and Deutsche Bank. At Leasta, thanks so much for
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: joining us here. It seems like we're seeing a lot
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: of corporations trying to back away and distance themselves from
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: the president and his companies. That's not going to be
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: so easy for Deutsche Bank to do, is it. Yes, Now,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: that's right, I think. Um. You know, what you have
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: to consider is that this is an ongoing and very
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: long standing lending relationship, one that has been going on
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: for decades um to begin with, but also one that
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: will linger. Because so we understand that Deutsche Bank has
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: now committed not to be doing any new business with
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump nor his companies or his entities, they are
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: still sitting on loans that Donald Trump owes um ow
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: s Deutsche Bank, and it's going to be a little
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: bit tricky to extricate themselves from that relationship for a
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: number of reasons. First and foremost, um, you know, may
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: not be easy to find any anyone willing to take
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: on that debt off them. But even if they did,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: this long standing relationship, we know it's going to be
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: on come under the microscope. We know is going to
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: be scrutinized. There are several investigations ongoing at various levels
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: that could well see douortship banks being dragged out. Not
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: so much because it's been necessarily accute of any wrongdoing,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: but certainly their business practices will come under the radar.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: There's a bit of a theory out there, and I
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: don't know how serious it is or if it's just
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: something that was floated that you know, people of a
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: democratic leaning bent, let's say, who might run credit jobs
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: or whatever it might pick this stuff up for a
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: very cheap and try to get something from Donald Trump. Yes, no,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: that that you know could could well happen. But in
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: terms of where doorship banks relationship goes and where doorship banks, um,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: you know, it's history hitherto in its relation with Donald
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Trump that will remain potentially under scrutiny. And you know
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: when it comes to their business practices. Um. You know,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: this is a bank that is you know, tried and
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: recently is very hard to um you know, rebuild. It's
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: the two improve controls, improved governance. After decades of exponential
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: growth that basically saw it, you know, taking on greater
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: and wat to risk and that's resulted in um, you know,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: allegations and and you know find for many, many billions
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: of dollars, and you know, this is just going to
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: reignite that interest in the businesses of Deutsche Bank and
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: how it goes about winning winning clients and winning business.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: At least, it's gonna be fascinating to see how the
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: president and his business uh fund themselves going forward, because
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: up until this point, there was no other money center
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: UH institution lending money to the Trump corporation that came
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: down to. Deutsche Bank was the only one. And it
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: wasn't even the corporate and investment bank at Deutsche Bank.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: It was the private bank. And now the private banker
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: for President Trump has left Deutsche Bank. So it it
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: really raises the questions how the Trump organization will capitalize
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: its business going forward. What do we know about that?
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: I think that's you know, extremely early to speculate on that. Um,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: you know, your wife they do you know, dutche Bankers
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: appeared to be the principal London, but you know, there
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: may be more that we learn about these finances going forward. UM.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: I think it's you know, a little bit too early
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: to speculate. I mean, clearly, UM, he will be a
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: you know he is and will remain a polarizing figure. Um.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: And and that will affect you know, his dealings and
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: the dealings of those who have been you know, enabling
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: him over the years. And of course we also had Signature,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: which is a much smaller, a boutique kind of bank,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: who might take over from them? Will anybody step up
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: to the place? As I said, I think I think
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit early to you know, to speculate
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: on all this. Um. I think what we do know
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: is that you know, obviously, um, you know a lot
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: of businesses, a lot of institutions have been distancing themselves
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: and vowing not to do business with Trump and his organizations. UM.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: From from including the City of New York, the p G,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: A and A and its golf tournaments, and that is
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: you know, undas peopill have repercussions on on his entourage
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: at least. How concerned is Deutsche Bank do you believe
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: about its reputation and maybe maybe the business risk it
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: faces from some of its customers saying we don't want
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: to do business with you. Are they concerned about or
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: how concerned are they about this going forward? I think
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: you know, this could be you know, a moment in
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: which you know, perhaps there's there's more support in in
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: in in in what in how Deutsch about me? Try
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: to um? You know, sever that relationship, UM, certainly more
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: support than it might have had, you know, you know
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: before last week. UM, I think what what is certainly
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: um the cases that you know, they are trying to
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: maintain the market share in the US. It's not growth
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: the market share in the US. It's still a very
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: important business for anyone, for for an investment bank such
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: as Deutsche Bank. Um, and it is one in which
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: you know that will draw headlines um which whichever where
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: you cut it, and you know that's not often not
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: often good for an about bank. You obviously, you know,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: look at all aspects of Deutsche Bank's reputation here and
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: point out in your column that institutional Shareholder Services rate
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Deutsche Bank D minus, which is the lowest score, and
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: I S S is extraordinarily well respected and also sort
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: of you know, bound by when it comes to institutional investing.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: So how long does it take for you know, a
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: major major institution like Deutsche Bank to sort of rehabilitate
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: its reputation. That's a good question. I think, you know,
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: the focus on on E s G is only increasing
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: as we speak, and investors are paying more attention to it,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: and um, you know it'll there is a long, long
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: list of situations that Deutsche Bank has been involved in
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: UM that have led to the school UM. And it
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: will certainly take time. I mean, this isn't something that
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: you fix UM in a year or so. This is
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: you know, this have to They'll have to demonstrate that
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: their controls and governance has improved UM and then you
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: know that that you know the type of for me,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: it takes you know, years, not months. At Lisa, how
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: important is the US market to Deutsche Bank. They obviously
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: have their challenges in their home market of Germany, but
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: they've really tried for decades to become a major player
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: here in the US with mixed results. I think you
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: know they're totally clear, are clearly are but there you know,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: they have a scale down strategy now for the investment banks,
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: they're not offering a broader a sweet of products or
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: some of the competitors. They're much more focused, especially in
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: the US. But you know, the America's still a count
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: for about a third of their investment banking revenue and
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: there are pockets of business where you know, being big
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: on Wall Street is absolutely essential. As you take UM I,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: p O s and spacks last year, you know, I
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: p O underwriting revenue was was the biggest among old
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: regions Deutsche Bank covers, So there are pockets of business
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: we absolutely have to be in the US and have
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: to be big. Very briefly, Eliza, how are the banks
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: in London contending with Briggs and these days? Well, we've
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: had you know, the most significant shift we've had so
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: far has been the one in show trading. You've seen
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: European shares now being almost exclusively traded on the continent,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: so away from London. That is a big shift for London.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: But we know we're going to be learning more as
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: the week's progressed, as we see more activity going to
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: the market. Yeah. Absolutely, and Elsa is all over it always.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Eliza Martin Utti is a Boomberg opinion columnist covering finance,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: and her latest is Deutsche Banks Trump links will prove sticky. Obviously,
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: Deutsche said that it wants to pull back and won't
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: do any further business with Donald Trump, but of course
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: it does already have business in the work. Thanks for
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: listening to the Boomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever a podcast
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Bonnie Quinn. And I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio