Latest / Host Planet: Airbnb, Holiday Let, and Vacation Rental Insights / 2026 World Cup Host? Here's What You Need to Know About Pricing

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2026 World Cup Host? Here's What You Need to Know About Pricing · Host Planet: Airbnb, Holiday Let, and Vacation Rental Insights

0:00
If you manage vacation rentals in a FIFA World Cup house city,
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you're likely expecting massive demand this summer.
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But do you know how much to charge?
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And do you know what your minimum stay strategy should be?
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In this episode, we're breaking down how you should price, what
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your minimum stay tactics should be, and how you need to react as
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bookings come in. This is the first episode of STR
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Pricing Pulse. Welcome to STR Pricing Pulse, a
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new monthly series from Launch Base where we cut through the
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noise and focus on what the data is actually telling us about
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pricing and demand in the world of vacation rentals.
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I'm James Valley, the Co founder of Launch Base, which helps
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short term rental businesses with revenue management and
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marketing. If you would like a bespoke and
0:52
in depth Launch Base audit for your business, head to our
0:55
website to book a call Is launch base dot club now?
0:59
This series is powered by Beyond, our exclusive data
1:02
partner who provide the markets and pricing statistics behind
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every episode. And with me to digest the data
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is my Launch Base Co founder and revenue management guru, Zach
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Ali. How's it going, Zach?
1:15
It's going great. Thanks, James.
1:17
Good to be here. Good to be talking about all
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things data. It certainly is.
1:21
All right then, let's break it down.
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So the FIFA World Cup 2026 will be hosted across Canada, Mexico
1:29
and the United States, with matches spread across 16 host
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cities from the 11th of June to the 19th of July.
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Now, Zach, you've been crunching the numbers and looking at the
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2018 World Cup in Russia to give us a comparable benchmark.
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So tell us, what did you learn from the 2018 data and why does
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it matter today? Absolutely.
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So I think one sentence kind of like summarizes everything that
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happened in 2018 for the World Cup in Russia.
2:00
And I found that demand materialized across the host
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markets, but many operators were still underperforming massively.
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Now if we go into that a little bit more in terms of what I saw
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in the data, that wasn't necessarily due to the fact that
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demand didn't actually show up. It did, but it was more in line
2:24
with normal seasonal habits. So operators applied normal
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seasonal habits to abnormal events.
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And I think the same mistake appeared.
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Well, I saw in the data the same mistakes appeared again and
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again. So just to kind of like give you
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a few more points to that in terms of what I mean about the
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mistakes that appeared again and again, the 1st mistake I saw was
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the fact that the entire tournament window was priced the
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same, which is crazy. And then also at the same time
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minimum stays were applied too broadly if you like, and more
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importantly they were applied very early, completely missing
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the reaction window. Peak nights also sold too
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cheaply, whilst children nights basically failed to convert.
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And most importantly in what I saw in the data is that late
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panic discounting largely eroded the revenue that could simply
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not be recovered. Interesting.
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So the operators here are thinking, right, the World Cups
3:35
taking place for about a month, 5 weeks, we're going to be
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inundated with people every single night.
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And they're not taking into account that peak demand is
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going to be on match days or around match days, because
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there's going to be a lot of time during the tournament where
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you're not going to have matches in your city.
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So it's, it's silly really to expect wild demand for the
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entire tournament. You you need to kind of cherry
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pick the dates. That's right.
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Absolutely. We've talked about it a lot in
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other conversations we've held. What's the, the critical factor
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here is understanding what the reaction window is.
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So the reaction window is when are bookers really converting if
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you like. And that's a really important
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goal just generally when you're in revenue management, but more
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importantly when you are managing events, I think across
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past global events. And this is what I saw in the
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Beyond data, where I saw very clear three patterns that were
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constantly repeating. And the first pattern that I
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observed was the fact that demand concentrates largely
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around those match days. I mean, that's not breaking
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news, but that's obviously the obvious.
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But sometimes, unfortunately, operators tend to miss the
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obvious. It didn't concentrate around the
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entire tournament window. In addition to that, the booking
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behaviours shift especially around the dates that really
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matter the most. So it's really important to
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understand what the shift actually is before you actually
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go ahead and apply a universal strategy if you like.
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And then thirdly, what I saw in the data was the fact that the
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revenue gap between the confident operator and the
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reactive operator basically widened very quickly, very fast.
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We've spoken a lot in data and revenue management circles in
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the last few years about the Taylor Swift effect and more
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recently the Oasis effect. So the operators who were, who
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were operating in FIFA World Cup host cities need to think of
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match days as as kind of concert days and not expect that three
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days before and four days after they, they're going to have
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loads of demand. Exactly.
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Because what you have to remember, James, is the demand
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will show up. That's that's a given.
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Demand will show up at the moment that it's due to show up.
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It won't show up before, it won't show up after.
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The question that needs to be answered here is whether your
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pricing and your controls simply help to capture the demand
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that's going to show up or are you quietly going to leak the
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value. Now it comes back to what kind
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of problem is it that we're trying to resolve here?
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It's why. It's why I would call it
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execution and not demand. And that simply determines the
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outcome that you're going to achieve from an operator's point
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of view where you can really go ahead and capitalise that one
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call a day and achieve revenues, which is equivalent to that one
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hot week. That makes sense.
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OK, Then let's shift forward to 2026 with the help of Beyond.
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Of course, you've been looking at where the house cities stand
6:57
today versus the same time period last year.
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So what's the data telling you right now?
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Yeah, very interesting. Absolutely.
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Obviously we saw a spike in search beyond.
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Beyond offers search data, search insight, and obviously we
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saw what the spikes were like when the announcements actually
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happened. Now naturally that that that was
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a spike, A lot of people would generally see that spike in the
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search data and then react to that.
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I think that's where the power of search actually comes into
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the mix here that remember that's not confirmed demand.
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That's just more intentions and it kind of like explains to you,
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OK, how many people are interested, but it's, it's not
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confirmed in terms of what's actually happen.
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So you take that as a guidance to then be able to determine
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what kind of demand it is that you're working with.
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But in terms of the actual data that we saw, I mean looking at
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the World Cup host cities today, if you like, compared to the
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same point last year, we are already seeing clear movement in
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both occupancy rates, occupancy and rates, but not in a
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uniformed way if you like. So some cities are showing
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stronger on the books occupancies.
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For example, in the data I remember seeing Miami and
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Boston, which were up on average, I think it was around
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about 14% year on year. And others such as LA and
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Houston were seeing more rate movement ahead of volume.
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I think the average increase was something around about 150% year
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on year from what I saw in the data.
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But what was really interesting was the fact that there were
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some markets out there such as Kansas and Toronto which were
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seeing a more balanced approach. So the average occupancy
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increase was around 27 percent, 2527% and the ADR was I think
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over 300 percent, 350% in terms of the increase that we were
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seeing there and which was taking a more balanced approach.
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All right then. So we're a few months from the
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tournament kicking off. What do hosts and property
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managers need to do right now if they want to capture this
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demand? So I think your goal right now
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is fairly simple. You've got to protect your peak
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value without losing flexibility on the nights that really still
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need to convert normally. And in terms of if I were to
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give you actions right now in terms of operators, if you like,
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I think the first action I would give you is price match nights
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first, not the whole nights for the whole month all at once.
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So focus on the the match nights specifically keep the second
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option would be keep the connector and background nights
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bookable and visible. And then my next action would be
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watch for likely demand spikes, which more than likely would
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happen around March time when the key qualifier outcomes are
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confirmed. And intent, which is that search
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intent that we've spoken about becomes more concrete for many
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travellers. And I think in terms of my last
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practical action for now, it would be do not wait for your
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calendar to look full before you actually start to do something
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about it. So the best demand often books
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1st and be prepared for it. I think as a quick self check,
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if you like, from an operator's point of view, if you raised
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prices across you every night, then you've probably gone a
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little bit too far. But then at the same time, if
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you've done nothing or if you've, yeah, if you've done
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nothing at the moment, if you like for your match nights,
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you're most likely leaving value on the table.
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So let's look at this really practically then.
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So if you've got a match day, let's say you've got a match day
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on the 20th of June in your city, would it be 20th of June,
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19th of June, 21st of June that you're thinking, right.
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OK, these are the nights that I need to boost my rates a bit.
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And then the other nights, I'm going to kind of keep them level
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or maybe a little bit higher than normal, like very
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practically and simply like what would you be thinking of?
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I mean be led by be led by the data, right?
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See what the data tells you in terms of what is converting
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naturally we would say those connect to nights if you like
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could be priced a little bit higher than the match nights
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because more than likely you will pick up multiple night
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demand. But in terms of the additional
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nights, I think if you do go ahead and price those nights
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higher than you would just generally I think you will be
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pricing yourself out of the market and dropping on
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conversion specifically for the for for the other periods off
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the back of the fact that you might assume people will stay.
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I think it's really important to have a look at who is searching,
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what they are searching for initially, and then understand
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how that search activity or that search intent is converting into
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demand. OK.
12:16
So in terms of data, now actually is a good time to
12:19
mention Beyond who are our exclusive data partners.
12:23
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12:27
because their pricing of outdated or incomplete data.
12:31
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12:35
of data points from actual bookings.
12:37
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12:41
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12:44
outperform the competition by 20% or more in revenue.
12:48
So stop guessing and start pricing with data you can trust.
12:52
Visit beyondpricing.info/launch Base and turn better data into
12:58
better profit. If you're watching on YouTube,
13:01
you'll be able to scan the QR code on screen.
13:04
And if you're listening across our audio platforms, there's a
13:07
link in the show notes. OK then, Zach, So moving on,
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let's talk about minimum stay strategy.
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What it's your advice to hosts who wants to maximize revenue
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during the World Cup? And I'm thinking here,
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everything is kind of built around the match days and you're
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probably going to expect a lot of demand for these one and two
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night stays. But what what's, what's your
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take on it? OK.
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So I think a simple approach that would work for most
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operators. First things first, early phase,
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so protect your peak slightly and keep shoulders flexible.
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I think in addition to that you have to have a look at your
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pace. So as pace strengthens tighten
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really only where demand proves it actually deserves to be
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tightened. And then my last point or my in
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terms of the approach that would work is kind of like tied in
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with the first point, but it's actually all about remaining
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flexible across the across the season, across the period that
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you are impacted in terms of the event because flexibility
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remember will avoid gaps. If you have pride and you want
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to be very restrictive, remember it's not going to pay the bills.
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You are going to miss out on core opportunities that the
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World Cup will present. I'm sure you'll say, look at the
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data here, but there'll be some host cities which are more
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traditional vacation spots that will probably expect longer
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stays and and people are still going to be in the area going on
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holiday. Whereas some host cities,
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they're probably not going to get the usual influx of
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tourists. So they probably have to have a
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tighter minimum stay strategy or maybe a shorter minimum stay
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strategy. Where do you stand on that?
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I mean, there probably will be still some business that is
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going to come to the operators which isn't directly linked to
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the event. Absolutely.
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But yeah, you do need to look at the data, but at the same time
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you need to look at the active interest that you are getting
15:17
within your area. So it goes back to the whole
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search intent that we've spoken about.
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How many people are actively searching for those dates
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specifically for your area, for your property.
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That will naturally give you an understanding of how much demand
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you can expect to achieve for that period.
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Now if we know that supply is going to be greater than the
15:43
actual demand, then you have to take that into consideration
15:47
when you are setting your whole, but your your whole pricing
15:50
strategy and that's inclusive of the length of stays and
15:53
flexibility. If you know that general
15:57
transient LED demand, so holiday LED demand is going to be
16:00
stronger then naturally you don't want to miss out on that
16:03
opportunity. So it is about drawing that fine
16:06
line, but obviously you're led by the data and in addition to
16:11
the, the actual booking data, the search intent data, which is
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critical in, especially in times like this.
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You've mentioned the search intent data quite a lot, and I'm
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sure there are hosts and property managers out there
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thinking how do I track this? Like how do I find out?
16:27
What would your advice be to those people?
16:30
Yeah, of course. So with regards to the search
16:32
data then I mean there's lots of ways you can qualify who's
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actually searching for your property.
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Naturally, from the data that I've observed, obviously, I've
16:40
taken a look at Beyond Search Data now.
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They do a fantastic job in collecting the search data and
16:47
then supporting the price recommendations and behaviours
16:53
with that search data, which then helps the price
16:55
recommendations be a lot more accurate.
16:57
So you know, if for all those people who are using Beyond you
17:00
have that functionality available within your system.
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Now if you are using other tools, then I guess looking at
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your website performance, if you have a large amount of web
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traffic coming to your website is another area.
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Obviously the OTAs do give you some in some some search data,
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not as not to the extent that you might be able to get off
17:23
your website or that beyond, for example, can provide in terms of
17:27
the granularity, such as the dates that are being searched,
17:30
the length of stays that are being searched, all those
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things. So I I think realistically it
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comes back to the tools that you're actually using.
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But what's really important about the search data is not
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just looking at it and thinking, oh, OK, great.
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You know, this is another bit of data that I can see here.
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What does it actually mean? I think what's really important
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is for you to really drill down in that data to then determine
17:56
what it is that that data is actually telling you.
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So like I've said, what dates are being searched?
18:02
What's the length of stays that are being looked at?
18:04
Where are the searches coming from?
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You know how many, it tells you how many adults, what is the
18:11
actual customer mix if you like, you know those kind of things.
18:14
You need to take all that information into consideration
18:17
for then you to be able to define what the rights, revenue
18:20
strategy, the right pricing approach is going to be for you
18:24
specifically with this event. Makes sense.
18:28
So yeah, if you're not already using Beyond, check them out.
18:30
There's a lot of data at your fingertips.
18:33
All right, then, Zach, so let's imagine, let's give a scenario
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here. Let's imagine that your
18:38
calendar's looking pretty empty close to the big kickoff.
18:42
Imagine maybe we're in May time and you're looking at your
18:46
calendar and thinking, Oh my goodness, the World Cup's just
18:48
around the corner, and I haven't got anywhere near as many
18:51
bookings as I expected. What should you do in that
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scenario? Yeah, it's not a great position
18:56
to be in, is it? But what I'm going to say first
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of all is don't panic. You know, do not panic if that
19:02
is the situation generally empty does not mean that you've failed
19:07
in a mega event pattern because remember, and also we've seen it
19:11
in the 2018 data, late demand is very common.
19:16
I mean, late demand is generally very common in in this kind of
19:20
event, especially once the fixtures drive the real travel
19:25
decisions, given the fact that they will tell you, you know,
19:28
when that demand is due to come and then also at the same time
19:32
travellers stop browsing and start committing.
19:35
So focus on the late demand, don't be too panicky about it
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and don't go crazy and start dropping prices or, you know,
19:44
doing things that you really shouldn't be doing, which is
19:46
going to cause you to leave revenue on the table.
19:50
I think also just to add that if you are behind the the recovery
19:55
sequence matters a lot. So if it was myself and I was in
20:00
that situation, the way I would deal with it from an operator's
20:03
point of view. And probably in this specific
20:07
order is that I would actually reopen my connector nights first
20:12
because naturally that's where you can pick up demand without
20:15
diluting the peak value. And then at the same time, as a
20:20
.2, if you like, I would relax my restrictions before actually
20:24
going ahead and having to reduce the prices because what we've
20:27
seen in the data is the fact that rules often block
20:30
conversion more than rate does. So you've got to be really clear
20:34
in terms of what is the, the barrier to entry there.
20:37
I think from from a .3 point of view, after you've done those
20:41
two, then you can go ahead and adjust prices, but adjust them
20:45
surgically only on the specific nights that are actually
20:49
underperforming and not the whole window because that's
20:53
really where the revenue leak would happen, especially through
20:58
a stage of panic discounting across the entire period.
21:02
Yeah, really good point you make there about the visibility.
21:05
I mean, for example, if your rules are minimum three night
21:09
stay and everybody's searching for one or two nights, you're
21:12
just not going to get seen even if your rates are pretty
21:16
competitive, right? That's, that's exactly it.
21:19
But you know, more so rather than just on event dates, that's
21:22
that approach should be taken across your whole trading year.
21:27
You know, there's so many operators out there who are
21:29
restricted in terms of the length of stay that they do
21:32
offer. And that's really, I know you're
21:34
going to tell me I'm talking about search again, but it's
21:36
really powerful in terms of the data it tells you exactly it
21:40
answers those questions, right. So what you might be priced or
21:44
you might have a length of stay restriction of three nights, but
21:48
the search into your property into your area might be two
21:50
nights or even one nights within a different season, for example.
21:54
So before you set your restrictions, you need to be
21:57
absolutely certain that you understand your market in terms
22:01
of what the length of stay restriction is telling you
22:04
rather than you realistically, you know, setting those
22:08
unrealistic expectations for yourself.
22:11
Yeah. And you also made the point as
22:12
well that later on in the tournament there will be matches
22:16
taking place. I think it's the the last 32,
22:20
last 16 quarterfinals, semi finals final.
22:23
But we don't know which teams are going to be involved in
22:26
those matches because the group stage hasn't happened yet.
22:29
So most of the search intent at the moment is going to be
22:33
looking at those group stage matches because we know which
22:36
teams are going to be playing in which house cities.
22:39
And that's what you were talking about before with the later.
22:41
And that's when like if England make the semi finals, for
22:44
example, there's going to be a lot of fans from England
22:47
thinking, right, how can I get to the states?
22:49
How can I get a ticket and go to that host city?
22:51
So you've you've kind of got a half the tournament, you've got
22:56
the group stage where we kind of we know where everybody's going
22:59
just about we've got the final qualifiers coming up in March.
23:02
But then you've got the other half of the tournament where we
23:04
don't know yet. And that's why we're going to
23:05
see a lot of last minute demand for those knockout matches.
23:10
Absolutely. I think, you know, whether
23:12
you're a fan or not, you have to follow the event if you are one
23:17
of the host cities, especially because you know it will
23:20
definitely assist you in that intent in understanding exactly
23:25
what is going on. So yeah, absolutely follow the
23:27
event and set your expectations and your goals accordingly.
23:33
So then, I mean, if you were based in a World Cup host city
23:37
running a property management business, what do you think good
23:40
performance would look like? In terms of good performance
23:45
then, so I think well, the way I would approach it is good World
23:48
Cup revenue management is not about being aggressive, right?
23:52
It's about being correct. And I think there's a couple of
23:56
points that I would look at. So number one, I would look to
23:59
see my peaks are protected and you know, I've priced with a lot
24:03
confidence in that sense. I think also as a point #2 my
24:09
connector site, my connector nights stay flexible and
24:13
visible. Again, it's very important for
24:15
all the reasons we've mentioned. I think also in addition to
24:18
that, the background nights are allowed to behave like normal
24:24
summer demand would. Obviously we then want to ensure
24:28
that we are capitalizing on other customers, not just the
24:31
event customers. And then finally, I think you
24:34
know, decisions are made by pace and not by fear.
24:38
And I think that's really what why it's so important.
24:42
And something that I would continuously look at is to
24:44
understand the pace of the the business that's coming into your
24:49
property to then be able to really allow you to see, OK,
24:54
well, I know truly I'm doing good here in terms of being on
24:57
the curve. Makes a lot of sense, Zach.
25:01
It's been a real pleasure. Thanks for joining us on the
25:05
first episode of STR Pricing Pulse.
25:08
My pleasure. All right, fantastic to hear
25:10
from Zach there on the first episode of STR Pricing Pulse,
25:14
and we'd love to hear from you. If you're watching on YouTube,
25:17
drop a comment and tell us. Are you hosting in a World Cup
25:20
host city in 2026? And what's your biggest pricing
25:23
concern right now? We will tackle the most common
25:27
questions in a future so and if you found this useful, hit like
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and subscribe wherever you watch or listen.
25:35
New episodes will drop every single month.
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And if there's a topic you'd like us to cover, let us know in
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the comments or e-mail james@launchbase.com.
25:43
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Until next time, happy hosting.