Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 433 - 1/15/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 433 - 1/15/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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  54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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  welcome to episode 433 of the all systems go sports betting
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  podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host, Josh Applebaum.
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  What's going on everyone? Happy Thirsty Thursday.
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  We are halfway through the month of January.
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  But more importantly, guys, it is a Thursday.
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  So you know what that means. It is another edition of the
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  Rhythm Rundown tonight streamed live on Twitter.
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  If you don't follow me yet, give me a follow at Josh under score
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  Insights right at 6:00 tonight, my buddy Kate Harper and myself
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  will go live. We're going to go through all of
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  the NFL postseason matchups for this weekend, as well as little
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  talk about the national championship game.
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  Indiana is up to 8 1/2. They open seven and a half.
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  Do we go with the move toward Indy or do we buy low and go
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  contrarian with the Miami Hurricanes there?
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  So either way, guys want to thank everyone who's tuned in
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  all year long to the rhythm rundown.
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  Remember the rhythm rundown? The whole goal of it is to
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  highlight how I and Cade and different people use rhythm to
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  their advantage. So we're going to go through the
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  system, plays the models, get any questions answered.
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  But always excited for a big Thursday rhythm rundown stream
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  live on Twitter. So I'll see you guys there. 6:00
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  to 7:00 PM Eastern Time tonight streamed live on Twitter.
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  Now mentioning the NFL postseason.
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  I told you guys yesterday, my first bet was Bears +4.
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  Remember, that line was around 3 1/2.
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  Four. There were some books offering
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  the four love that there's a 22% sharp mush edge from our friends
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  at juice reel on the bears. And then remember rhythm had
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  bears plus 2.5 + 1.7 or even a pick em game.
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  And I gave you those crazy stats yesterday in terms of how much
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  Stafford has struggled in the cold.
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  Remember their Dome team coming into a very very cold, very cold
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  environment there in and looks like could be windy and snowy as
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  well in Chicago. But as I was kind of, you know,
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  looking over some stuff last night, looking over the lines,
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  look, getting ready from the Rhythm Rundown show tonight, I
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  said, you know what, it's time to fire on all these games.
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  So there's a four pack overall. Remember we got two games on
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  Saturday, 2 games on Sunday. I gave you the Bears.
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  Well, now I'm going to give you the other 3 plays and two of
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  them might be obvious, 1 might be a bit of a surprise, but all
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  these these matchups here, we're going to try to incorporate some
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  line moves, some rhythm edges, some sharp mush edges, and then
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  some other factors as well. So if you're wondering, you know
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  where I'm going to go here with these other games, well, guess
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  what you're going to find out today on the second-half of the
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  pod. Now in terms of sweats for
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  today, guys going to get right back to college basketball.
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  I got a three pack overall, so we're going to see if some of
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  these dogs can bark with some good rhythm edges as well.
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  But we do we'll be looking for hopefully A2 in one night to eke
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  out a winning night in college hoops.
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  So it's going to be college hoops NFL postseason.
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  That's going to be the pod for today.
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  Looking back toward yesterday, guys 1 and 2 -, 1.12 units had a
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  great hit with a Texas Longhorns hook em Remember that line was
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  dropping toward Texas even though public was all over the
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  undefeated Vanderbilt Commodores in Texas.
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  We said, hey, that's just like Kansas the other night against
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  Iowa State, same exact thing, undefeated team, Publix all over
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  that high ranked undefeated team, but the line was dropping
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  to that home dog. So it's great to see Texas come
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  through, but unfortunately it's been a couple nights in a row
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  here where we're getting a huge hit, but then we're not getting
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  that other game to give us a 2IN1 winning night.
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  So unfortunately Auburn, who was a faded Trinity dog play, stayed
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  minus one 1 1/2. Even though public was Mizzou,
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  they really just didn't put up much of a fight to end up losing
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  by I think like 10 made it interesting down by 5 late, but
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  Auburn was disappointing and then the other team who was just
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  dead to me again, what a pathetic performance high point,
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  not only do we beat the closing line, did you guys see where
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  high point closed? They went from plus 1 1/2 to -1
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  1/2, but they actually closed at -2 1/2.
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  So an example once again of us doing our job, beating the
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  closing line, making a sharp play, but the team on on the
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  court doesn't come through for us because high point, I think
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  they're down by like 30 points at halftime, then up losing by,
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  I don't know, 20 points or so, but just a pathetic, pathetic
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  performance team that's they were 16 and three had a sharp
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  move, but just did not even show up against Winthrop.
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  So high point, you are the weakest link.
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  Goodbye. But either way, guys can be
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  right back at it today. So let's kick off the pod
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  getting right back into some college hoops because it's a big
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  slate about 50 games overall. And I got a few games here that
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  I'm excited to share with you. So without further ado, let's
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  look at a 7:00 game tonight, Oakland against Milwaukee.
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  Setting the stage here, we got Oakland coming in nine and nine
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  just saw the three-game win streak however come to an end.
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  They lost to Wright State 9484 lost outright as a 4 1/2 point
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  home favorite. Meanwhile, Milwaukee 8 and 10
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  just snapped A4 game losing skid however, by beating IU
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  Indianapolis 95 to 83 covered as an 8 1/2 point home favorite.
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  So what is seen across the market here?
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  Well, this game opened with Oakland listed around a 2 1/2
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  point Rd. favorite, and early in the day we saw Oakland creep all
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  the way up to -3 1/2. So if you looked earlier, this
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  was, I don't know, around like 9:10 AM Eastern Time when I was
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  writing the Sharp report for visa.com.
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  It's like OK, Lions going Oakland.
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  However, once it got to 3 1/2, that's when you saw a ton of big
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  money come back on Milwaukee at home.
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  So Milwaukee went from plus 3 1/2 down to plus 3 some shops, a
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  lot of shops now down to 2 1/2. So the important thing here to
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  me is that we open 2 1/2 Oakland and we're still 2 1/2.
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  It did tick up and came back down.
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  But this would indicate a line freeze because if you look at
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  it, the public is all over Oakland.
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  If you remember Oakland, was it last year or the year before
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  they went deep in the NCAA tournament?
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  Maybe that's just a reminder there, but it's one of your
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  early games pretty heavily bet. And right now, 70% of spread
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  bats at DraftKings are going with Oakland.
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  So the fact that Oakland open -2 1/2, it is now still 2 1/2 again
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  ticked up to 3 1/2. Three came back down once again
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  tells me a bit of a line freeze where respected money.
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  And again, this is a little tactic that the great Billy
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  Walters would do. We'd call it a head fake where
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  you would hit one side at a low limit number early in the day to
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  make the sharps think you like them just to move that number up
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  so you can come back on the side that you really liked at a
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  greater price and a better, a bigger payout as limits get
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  raised. So I'm not saying that like, you
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  know, sharps love Milwaukee the whole time.
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  They hit Oakland early, brought that line up, brought it back
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  down. Maybe they did, maybe they
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  didn't. But it just is kind of sneaky to
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  me that it went up early. But then all money since has
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  been pouring in on Wisconsin Milwaukee.
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  So Milwaukee again. I jumped on Milwaukee plus 3
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  1/2. Bet it a little bit earlier
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  today. Another shameless plug.
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  If you want to follow the the ASG, all systems go best, but
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  picks from Juice Reel for $4.99 a week.
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  But you still can get +3 at Caesar's.
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  Why is that important? Because most other books are
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  down to 2 1/2. So at least try to get the three
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  if you want to take Milwaukee with me.
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  But aside from the the really sharp buyback, the line freeze,
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  you're in a good contrarian spot as oak as Wisconsin.
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  Milwaukee only getting 30% of tickets.
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  Also really good split at Circa out in Vegas.
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  Only 50% bet 67% dollars are on Milwaukee.
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  So another sharp split in their favor.
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  Now Ken Palm does have Oakland winning by 266 or sorry, 86 to
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  84. So if you can still get that
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  three or at least the 2 1/2, try to get the three if you can, a
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  little bit of an edge there in favor of Milwaukee.
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  Oh, by the way, home Rd. Milwaukee, seven and two at
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  home. Oakland is 3 and seven on the
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  road. Rhythm does have Milwaukee plus
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  1.8. So another reason why, again, at
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  least getting the three hopefully is a decent edge.
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  And then, oh, by the way, our friends at Juice Reel, a 26%
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  sharp mush edge in favor of Milwaukee.
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  So a game that initially went up to Oakland, but it's crashing
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  back down in Milwaukee. Rhythm edge, sharp mush edge.
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  Ken Palms got a 2 point game. Good split, good home Rd.
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  advantage. I went Milwaukee plus 3 1/2
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  again. At least try to get the three
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  now because a lot of books are down to 2 1/2.
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  But you know what, Milwaukee? How about you win the game
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  outright, make everybody happy. Wouldn't that be nice?
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  Next game on the board, 8:00 Eastern Time.
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  Let's take a look at Arc State at South Alabama.
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  Now Arkansas State comes in 12 and five.
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  They've won two in a row, just beat Texas State 8382.
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  Didn't cover, though, as an 11 1/2 point home favorite.
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  On the other hand, South Alabama 12 and five, same record.
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  They've won three of their last four.
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  They just beat Georgia Southern 87 to 71 easily covered as a 1
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  1/2 point home favorite. So.
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  What do you see across the market here?
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  Will this game open? Arkansas State listed around a 3
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  1/2 or 4 point favorite. And really all movement
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  liability has kind of been on the side of South Alabama
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  because a lot of books, you're seeing some books still show a
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  four right now. But it was mostly liability on
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  South Alabama because they went from 4 down to 3 1/2.
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  But they even got down to three earlier today and a lot of the
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  books were juiced up on the South Alabama side.
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  Plus 3 1/2 -, 115. Now that has evened out a little
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  bit here. You can definitely get the 3
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  1/2. You might even be able to get
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  the four. But it showed me that all
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  movement liability has been pretty much on the side of South
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  Alabama at home getting the points now.
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  I like the splits on South Alabama. 57% bets, 84% dollars
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  at DraftKings. So very, very slight public
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  support, but also heavy smart money here pouring in on the
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  South Alabama Jaguars. Ken Palm has arc State winning
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  by 277 to 75. So if you can get that four or
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  definitely the 3 1/2, that's a pretty decent edge off of A2
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  point prediction here from Ken Palm.
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  Now South Alabama has some advantages, better offensive
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  efficiency, 151st in the country verse 218th for Arkansas State,
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  better three-point shooting, 236 in the country versus 294 and
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  they take better care of the ball, don't turn it over.
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  They rank 77th and turnover percentage committed versus 300
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  and 22nd for Arkansas State. South Alabama also only giving
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  up 67 points a game. Arkansas gives up 78 points per
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  game. Lastly, when you look at two
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  teams in the sunbelt playing each other and conference play,
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  take the dog. It's a decent system. 19 and 16
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  against the spread this year. 54% with a 4% ROI.
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  So you open around Arc state -4 three and a half.
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  You can probably still get the four, but a lot of books are
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  down to 3 1/2. There's been liability on this
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  home dog we have Ken Palm St. should be a 2 point game.
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  I was able to. I jumped on our South Alabama
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  plus 3 1/2. A little bit annoyed because I'm
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  seeing some fours pop up, but if you do want to play it, you
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  can't get that for now. So let's see if South Alabama
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  can bark as a dog tonight. I got South Alabama here again.
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  3 1/2 or even A4 last game of the night.
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  Heavily bet one on ESPN Plus or sorry ESP ESPN2 I should say.
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  9:00 eastern Eastern Time the Wichita State Shockers visiting
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  the FAU Owls now. Wichita State comes in 10 and
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  seven on the year. Just snapped.
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  However, A2 game losing streak and beat North Texas 7867
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  covered as an 8 1/2 point home favorite.
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  On the other hand, Ford Atlantic 11:00 and 6:00 on the year.
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  They've won two in a row and just held off.
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  Memphis 89 to 78 covered easily as a 1 1/2 point home favorite.
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  So what you've seen across the market here?
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  Well, this game opened, FAU listed around a 5 1/2 point home
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  favorite and the public is leaning slightly toward FAU.
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  They got a little bit better of a record 11 and 6 versus 10 and
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  7. They got homecourt advantage.
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  And was it last year, the year before?
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  Again, you got to think about it, guys.
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  Like, you know, we're getting, we're not quite to March
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  Madness, but it's also not that far away with football winding
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  down. You're getting more people,
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  recreational betters that are getting into college hoops.
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  So they're going to remember, oh, FAU, they took that long
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  deep run, right? Yeah, they did a couple years
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  ago. So maybe that's partly why
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  you're seeing the public lean Florida Atlantic as well.
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  But even though about 55% of spread bets are laying it with
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  the Owls, the open -5 1/2, they're down to 4 1/2.
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  Some books even down to 4. I'm seeing a couple books now
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  down to 3 1/2. So I jumped on Wichita State
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  plus 4 1/2 at DraftKings a little bit earlier today.
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  I still think DraftKings in the score at 4 1/2, but Caesar's is
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  at 4 and every other book is down to 3 1/2.
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  But the whole point being here is it's a heavily bet ESPN 2
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  game Publix leaning FAU. This line is dropping toward
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  Wichita State. So it tells me smart money going
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  with Wichita State at circa 43% bets, but 61% of dollars on
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  Wichita State. So further evidence of that big
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  pro money out in the desert. Also going with the Shockers.
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  Ken Palm has FAU winning by 377 to 74.
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  So again, we can still get that 4 1/2 hopefully at DraftKings or
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  the score or at least a four little bit of an edge off of a
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  three-point predicted victory. Ken Palm does have Wichita State
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  actually ranked technically higher, 101 in the country
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  versus 102. Shockers do have the better
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  offensive rebound percentage, 8th in the country versus 112th.
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  They have the better three-point shooting, 86 versus 109th.
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  They limit their opponents to a better effective field goal
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  percentage, 36 versus 100 and 78th.
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  Wichita State also does a bet better job of not turning it
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  over. They ranked 54th in the country
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  and turnovers committed versus 229th for FAU.
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  So publics leaning FAU, but the lines dropping in Wichita, Oh,
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  by the way, rhythm has let's see, Wichita plus 3.3 and there
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  is a 25% sharp mush edge for friends at Juice Reel on Wichita
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  State. So add it all up here guys.
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  Public FAU line dropping a Wichita State ESPN 2 game
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  contrarian good split steam system matches.
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  I'm on the Shockers again. Try to get that 4 1/2.
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  If not, at least get that four. So Milwaukee, South Alabama and
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  Wichita State, let's get 2 out of these three to cover tonight.
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  Now, without further ado, let's talk about the other remaining
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  NFL divisional round games that we haven't hit on.
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  So I start off, you know, reminding you guys yesterday's
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  pod. I am take committed got the got
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  the ticket in my pocket or technically my the bet slip for
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  my my online sports betting app on the Chicago Bears, Chicago
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  Bears da Bears +4. Now I'm going to pop open my app
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  to see if there's stills A4 out there.
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  Yep, you can get plus 4 still at Caesar's in Fanatics.
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  Every other book is down to 3 1/2.
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  So if you want to play Bears with me again, you got to get
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  that 4. But here's the thing, Rhythm has
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  Bears plus 2.5 a pick even or plus 1.722% sharp mush edge on
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  the Bears at Juice Reel and really cool game where we can
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  fade a Dome team, a warm weather team, and Stafford who struggled
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  in the cold. So I like the the Bears their
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  +4. Now let's talk about the other
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  games. Let's start with the first one
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  here. This is your 430 game coming up
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  on Saturday, which is only two days away.
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  It's getting close here, But Buffalo and Denver, Now, we've
• 15:28
  seen a bit of a shift in this number, and we've seen this line
• 15:31
  move toward the Denver Broncos. We open this game, most shops,
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  Buffalo -1 -? 1 1/2 on the road.
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  And the public is leaning Buffalo.
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  Maybe they're just saying I ain't betting against Josh
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  Allen, which, again, I can't. I can't argue with you, however,
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  even though you're getting 60% of spread bets at DraftKings on
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  Buffalo, we've actually hopped the fence and gone to Denver -1
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  -, 1 1/2. This is a really late evolving
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  dog to fave line move that's taking place over the last 24
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  hours. I think really mostly after
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  yesterday's pot. So with that dog to fave line
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  move, you can go Denver as technically now a contrarian
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  favorite fade, the trendy dog only getting 40% of spread bets.
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  If we look at the splits that are taking place at Circa, if I
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  can pull those up, let's see if I can get those.
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  Refreshing my page. You were only getting 38% of
• 16:22
  spread bets on Denver. So we're against the public and
• 16:26
  heavily bet game and we're with the dog to fave line move.
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  So I'm going Broncos money line guys again, I'm not going to lay
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  A1 1 1/2 win by 1 and and push or lose my bet.
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  So I got Broncos money line at -112.
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  I think that was at Bally bet, but you can definitely get a -,
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  115. Some books are -120 rhythm as
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  Broncos -1.5 S pretty much, you know, right there.
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  There is a 6% sharp mush edge on the Broncos from our friends at
• 16:52
  Juice Reel, but I'll layer this in as well.
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  Rest first tired. Denver's off a bye.
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  Buffalo had to play a really physical game where Josh Allen
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  really got beat up again. You end up winning the game.
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  The guy's an absolute warrior. But rested versus a really
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  physical game. Buffalo just had in
• 17:08
  Jacksonville, but also second straight Rd. game for the Bills.
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  That's kind of a tough spot at Jacksonville at Denver.
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  I want to bet against that. Also, there are a bunch of wide
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  receiver injuries. I noticed that Gabe Davis tours
• 17:23
  ACL against the Jags and Tyrell Shavers.
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  I believe Torres ACL as well. So not that that's you know, you
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  know, I don't know true. That's not like Jerry Rice and
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  you know, Terrell Owens tearing their ACL.
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  But still those are starting contributing guys who are no
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  longer going to be playing here. I think Shavers is a special
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  teamer as well and I did notice at Rhythm.
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  Rhythm has Broncos -1.5 but Rhythm also has a smart signal.
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  Sharp recommendation on the Broncos money line so we can bet
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  against the public and be contrarian by taking the
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  Broncos. Buffalo is a trendy dog.
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  Dog to fave line move toward Denver.
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  Rest first. Tired injuries.
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  Really good defense going up against Josh Allen who is now
• 18:07
  short handed. I played Denver money line to
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  win the damn game again. It's always hard to go 2 Mile
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  High as well, but I got the -112 you can get Denver if you want
• 18:16
  to play with me around -115 Now next bet San Fran and Seattle.
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  Now I was debating yesterday guys, whether to to throw this
• 18:26
  one out out to you because I'm like, man, that seven half looks
• 18:29
  like it's getting down to 7. So it told me that, hey, if you
• 18:32
  like San Fran, you know, you better jump on that now before
• 18:36
  it before it drops because if you lose by 7:00, you want to
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  cash with the hook. So I decided to jump on 49ers
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  plus 7 1/2. Now, if you look at the splits
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  here for the 49ers, you're getting over 80% of spread bets
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  in dollars from Circa on the Niners.
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  So that tells me a big majority of sharp betters out in Vegas
• 18:55
  have also taken San Fran. I don't love that it's a little
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  bit of a public play at DraftKings.
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  Again, I want to bet against the public if I can, but I have so
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  many system matches on San Fran. Playoff dog missed the playoffs
• 19:08
  the previous year. 3 and O 8 TS this season. 71% since 2020.
• 19:13
  Divisional round dogs 65% ATS since 2020.
• 19:16
  Prime time dog, that is system. 55% in the postseason since
• 19:21
  2020. Fading A divisional round
• 19:24
  favorite off a buy that is also a 59% system.
• 19:29
  Let's see, Playoff dog both missed the playoffs the previous
• 19:32
  year. That is a 77% system since 2024
• 19:37
  or 2020 I believe. Then we get to also a divisional
• 19:42
  dog. Again built in familiarity,
• 19:44
  loves the playing field. We get to rhythm, get a load of
• 19:46
  this rhythm has San Fran plus 3.1 + 0.8 and plus 3.4.
• 19:53
  Also we have the Niners. Little bit of a revenge.
• 19:55
  Remember they had that game to decide who was going to be the
• 19:58
  one seed and they lost what was it 13 to three.
• 20:01
  I was fine by us cuz I remember we had what was it?
• 20:04
  We had Seattle money line there. But you're a divisional dog with
• 20:07
  a lot of system matches and the seven AFS are getting down to 7,
• 20:11
  so it tells me that 22 the trains leaving the station for
• 20:14
  the hook. So I did find a book yesterday
• 20:17
  that was offering 7 1/2. I got plus 7 1/2 at -114 that
• 20:22
  was at, I believe Ballybet. There are not too many books
• 20:26
  offering the hook anymore, but you do have some books that are
• 20:29
  like plus 7 + 100 or plus 7 - 1 O2.
• 20:33
  If you did want to buy it up, you could get around plus seven
• 20:36
  F -, 120. So if you want to wait it out,
• 20:38
  that's fine. But if you can get access to a
• 20:40
  hook, I'm going to go San Fran here, divisional dog with with a
• 20:44
  lot of rhythm edges telling us to play San Fran because again,
• 20:48
  rhythms got closer to a three-point game.
• 20:51
  Then we get to the big one, the big boy Houston Texans and my
• 20:56
  New England Patriots. Now, I can tell you having you
• 21:00
  know, being in Boston and there's a you've heard me say it
• 21:03
  before, but I'm I'm a weirdo who loves talk radio.
• 21:06
  Not not political talk radio, sports talk radio.
• 21:09
  OK, don't get don't get it twisted out there, but I love a
• 21:12
  show called Felger and Maz. A lot of my friends hate it.
• 21:14
  I think it's great. And the topic of conversation
• 21:18
  today is strength of schedule. As I was getting ready to do the
• 21:21
  pot and the debate was OK, Patriots had the easiest
• 21:25
  strength of schedule this year, ranked 32nd in the NFL.
• 21:28
  Texans had the number one strength to schedule.
• 21:31
  So again, you know, what does that tell you?
• 21:33
  Do you want a good record beating up on not great
• 21:35
  competition, or do you respect the team that has a slightly
• 21:38
  worse record but played a lot of really good teams?
• 21:41
  That's just kind of a topic of conversation.
• 21:43
  Anyway, here's my play for you. And this is the game that I said
• 21:46
  might surprise you. I got to take the the Texans as
• 21:49
  a dog, right? And get a + 3.
• 21:50
  I'm actually going to go the other way here, guys.
• 21:53
  I'm going patriots -3 Here's my angle.
• 21:56
  Yes, I'm a Pats fan, but I hope you would, you know, respect and
• 21:59
  trust me when I say I'm not going to ever tell you to take
• 22:02
  my favorite team just cuz they're my favorite team.
• 22:04
  It's a cardinal sin. You never want to do it.
• 22:06
  But I'm just seeing market liability on New England.
• 22:08
  And wait till you hear what rhythm has for this game.
• 22:11
  A lot of books open patriots -2 1/2, two and a halfs got up to
• 22:15
  three and all the threes are juiced toward New England -3 -,
• 22:19
  120. So if we just cover up the names
• 22:21
  of the teams, the line is moving toward New England, whether it's
• 22:25
  3 getting juiced up to maybe 3 1/2.
• 22:27
  I think one book is that 3 1/2 or the 2 1/2 up to three.
• 22:31
  Again, it's not like it's down to 2 1/2 or two.
• 22:34
  It's only been gravitating toward New England.
• 22:36
  Then if we look at the splits, this might surprise you at
• 22:40
  DraftKings, 55% of spread bets, but 76% of spread dollars are on
• 22:46
  New England. So you might say, oh, New
• 22:47
  England's a trendy favorite. No, they're not.
• 22:49
  They're actually barely, you know, a coin flip here, 55% but
• 22:53
  heavy smart money in their favor.
• 22:55
  Then we get into some other factors.
• 22:56
  One, Texans are on a short week. Texans played the Steelers on
• 23:01
  Monday. Now they have to play a three
• 23:03
  o'clock game on Sunday on a short week.
• 23:05
  Remember, Patriots played Sunday night.
• 23:07
  So they're they have a rest advantage.
• 23:09
  It's the second straight Rd. game for the Texans, similar to
• 23:13
  the Bills. That's just, that's just a tough
• 23:14
  spot historically, playing two games in a row on the road,
• 23:17
  especially on a short week. Meanwhile, Pat's had their
• 23:19
  second straight home game #2 no Nico Collins as of yet.
• 23:24
  Remember in that game against the Steelers, he hit his head on
• 23:27
  the ground. Well, he hasn't practiced and
• 23:29
  reports are he's very doubtful to play this game.
• 23:32
  On the other hand, Christian Gonzalez had a concussion
• 23:36
  against the Chargers and there was a question, will he play or
• 23:38
  not? Well, he's practicing.
• 23:40
  So it's like Gonzalez is in and Nico Collins is out.
• 23:43
  Advantage, Patriots. But then we get to the big one.
• 23:47
  Here we have Patriots 11% sharp mush edge from Juice Reel.
• 23:52
  I forgot to mention, I don't know if I did or not, but San
• 23:54
  Francisco has an 18% sharp mush edge from Juice Reel.
• 23:58
  But here's the kicker. When I popped open Rhythm, I was
• 24:01
  expecting Rhythm to tell me, you know, take, take, you know,
• 24:04
  Texans, you know, take the points here.
• 24:07
  But Rhythm is actually saying this is a good number to put to
• 24:10
  back New England because Rhythm has the patriots -4.5 -, 3.6 and
• 24:17
  -4.8. So Rhythm has this closer to A4
• 24:20
  or A5 point game. And a couple of these are green
• 24:23
  star smart signal plays. So I was saying to myself, you
• 24:26
  know what, don't you don't have to, you know, beat me over a
• 24:29
  feather to take a dog in the postseason.
• 24:31
  That's what I typically love doing.
• 24:34
  But the market is low bits, higher dollars, line movement,
• 24:37
  juice, liability toward New England.
• 24:39
  New England is in a better schedule spot, maybe no Nico
• 24:42
  Collins most likely. And Rhythm has it closer to a
• 24:45
  four or five point game. Guys, I laid it with the
• 24:47
  Patriots. I laid -3 with New England.
• 24:51
  I'm going to, you know, sink or swim with my favorite team.
• 24:53
  So it's going to be a very interesting sweat for me.
• 24:56
  But you can get Patriots. I got the -3 at -113 I believe
• 25:02
  that was at Caesar's yesterday. You can still get -3 -, 113.
• 25:07
  But again, some, most books are -3 -, 120 - 115.
• 25:11
  And Fanatics is up to 3 1/2. So again, you, you win by three.
• 25:15
  We push this bet, but if hopefully rhythm comes through
• 25:18
  and they win by, you know, four or five, you know, it's kind of
• 25:20
  an off number. But I'm going to, I'm going to,
• 25:22
  I'm going to back the sharp play here, which appears to be the
• 25:25
  Patriots. So I got Pats -3 so Bears plus
• 25:28
  four, Broncos, money line, San Fran plus 7 1/2 Pats -3 let's at
• 25:34
  least get 2. Let's try to get three if we
• 25:35
  can. That would make for a very, very
• 25:38
  successful and awesome divisional round weekend.
• 25:41
  So that about does it guys, for episode 433 of the All Systems
• 25:45
  Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm, Of course.
• 25:48
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
• 25:50
  always start first by saying thank you.
• 25:52
  Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
• 25:55
  taking the time out of your day, out of your busy lives.
• 25:58
  I know you got a lot going on. When you tune in, you grind
• 26:00
  these sharp plays with me. That means the world to me.
• 26:03
  So thank you, thank you, thank you for your support.
• 26:05
  If you do enjoy the pod, you value the insights, you find
• 26:08
  them interesting. Hopefully they're a part of your
• 26:10
  daily handicap, at least getting the the insights here on on what
• 26:13
  what the market is saying because that's my specialty.
• 26:16
  But if that's the case, you want to help me grow this pod, please
• 26:18
  give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
• 26:22
  The all systems go pod. If you want to click the follow
• 26:24
  button or retweet the pod when I put it out or recommend the pod
• 26:27
  to a friend, that'll also be very much appreciated.
• 26:30
  Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
• 26:34
  sharp contrarian betting, focusing on what the market the
• 26:36
  numbers are telling us, not what our bias and our gut is telling
• 26:39
  us. This style of betting has shown
• 26:42
  you a blueprint of how to attack the market and make some sharp
• 26:45
  bets. Then maybe you maybe you want to
• 26:47
  learn more about data-driven betting.
• 26:48
  Maybe you want to support the team.
• 26:49
  Maybe there's someone in your life who wants to get into
• 26:52
  betting and doesn't know how it works or they bet a lot, but
• 26:55
  they don't even they couldn't even tell.
• 26:56
  Oh, why'd you take this team? Well, I just liked them tonight.
• 26:59
  OK, well, what a line open at, you know, again, what provide a
• 27:02
  blueprint to people, hopefully make bets of their head and not
• 27:05
  their heart. If that's the case, I would love
• 27:07
  for you to go to Amazon.com, type in the NFL sharp betting
• 27:11
  playbook. Which by the way, I wanted to
• 27:13
  mention this because there is a very, very sharp buddy of mine
• 27:18
  who who tweeted me and again, the DMS are always open, so you
• 27:22
  can always come come on down. But I want to give a shout out
• 27:24
  to my guy at Adam MMA, one of the sharpest guys I know.
• 27:28
  And he wanted to say one thing I noticed quote when you promote
• 27:32
  your book, you should mention that it's also available on
• 27:34
  Audible. I'm not the strongest reader
• 27:36
  admittedly lol. So having an audio book version
• 27:39
  available was big for me. I think you should get the word
• 27:41
  about it out there. So thank you to my guy Adam MMA.
• 27:44
  And I did want to mention, as Adam just reminded me, you can't
• 27:48
  get this book on Audible. So if you don't want to read it,
• 27:51
  you can listen to it. Either way, you're supporting
• 27:53
  the NFL sharp betting playbook. So grab it that book or the
• 27:57
  everything guy to sports betting.
• 27:58
  Bring them to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
• 28:00
  I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
• 28:02
  Sweat some of these games together.
• 28:04
  Next you have a live odds page. Well, if you don't have one, you
• 28:07
  need one. Got to be able to track the
• 28:08
  market in real time. Figure out what the line opened
• 28:11
  at, where is it now, how is it move, pull up line history, get
• 28:14
  the sharp signals, Shop for the best price.
• 28:17
  Find that book giving you San Fran plus 7 1/2 with the hook
• 28:20
  when every other book is at 7. All the advantages here that I'm
• 28:24
  mentioning as well as in game wagering.
• 28:26
  Live odds all available to you when you give a shot to Odds
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  Logic. The best live odds page around.
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  I'm a proud affiliate of Odds Logic.
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  All you got to do is go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
• 28:39
  That'll give you a 7A free trial, 50% off your first month.
• 28:42
  And remember, it's got to be Odds logic.com/josh 123 next.
• 28:48
  Have you downloaded Rhythm in Juice Reel yet?
• 28:50
  My two favorite sports betting apps, Rhythm for their AI backed
• 28:52
  models and predictions for game bets and player props.
• 28:55
  Reminder, we have a Rhythm rundown tonight.
• 28:57
  Very much looking forward to that 6:00 PM Eastern Time.
• 28:59
  Stream live on Twitter and then Juice Reel.
• 29:02
  A lot of great advantages with Juice reel.
• 29:03
  First off, if you'd like to support the pod tip your podcast
• 29:06
  host get the plays as soon as I make them.
• 29:09
  You can get them from the juice reel tab and it's all you got to
• 29:13
  do is search ASG under score podcast.
• 29:15
  But it cost you $4.99 a week. So 5 bucks for seven days of
• 29:20
  plays and you can support the team, which would mean a lot to
• 29:23
  me and get the plays earlier. Hopefully beat beat some closing
• 29:26
  lines. You also get the robo Jackson
• 29:28
  best bet picks, sharp mush indicators.
• 29:30
  The arbitrage plays the shop for the best line features all of
• 29:33
  that when you download juice reel.
• 29:35
  So download juice reel, download rhythm, give them a five star
• 29:38
  review in the App Store. Lastly, have you downloaded
• 29:42
  novig yet? Novig is a sports betting
• 29:44
  exchange. It's not a sports book, it's an
• 29:46
  exchange. So you're going to get way
• 29:47
  better juice prices. You're going to get -1 O 5 plus
• 29:50
  one O 2 -, 1 O3, not the -115 minus one 20s that the odds
• 29:54
  makers forced you to pay because you're in an exchange.
• 29:57
  We're going up against other betters who have bet the other
• 30:00
  side of what you want to bet. So as a result, the house, there
• 30:03
  is no house. Basically the house is all you
• 30:06
  and your your fellow betting buddies.
• 30:08
  But you can went the same rate but make more money because you
• 30:11
  are risking less juice. So download Novig and when you
• 30:13
  fund your account, put in Josh 123 and I'll tack on an extra 25
• 30:18
  bucks for you to play with. So what does it guys?
• 30:20
  As always, two final thoughts. One whether I see you at the
• 30:23
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 30:26
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 30:29
  Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park Casino
• 30:32
  MGM Springfield, the Nash and my neck of the woods on the border
• 30:36
  of National New Hampshire and Massachusetts.
• 30:38
  Out in the desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy
• 30:40
  Walters sends his number runners, where the lowest juice
• 30:43
  possible is found at the South Point.
• 30:44
  Or sweating sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
• 30:47
  swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
• 30:49
  Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
• 30:52
  You're going to show me a nice hook em All right, all right,
• 30:56
  all right. Texas Longhorns ticket first
• 30:58
  one's on me. Next one's on you will post
• 30:59
  about the book Sweat some sharp contrarian plays all night long.
• 31:03
  So as always, guys coming off a one and two or a two and one, an
• 31:06
  O and three or a three and OA winning night, a losing night, a
• 31:09
  hot streak, a cold streak. When everything is going our way
• 31:12
  or nothing's going our way. We just got to stick to the
• 31:14
  model flat betting, taking that even keeled approach and play
• 31:19
  the system matches when they pop up.
• 31:20
  Those games are the ones that are against the public with the
• 31:24
  house, with the pros flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
• 31:27
  If we can do that, we're going to come out on top and be
• 31:29
  successful sports betters. So have a great Thirsty
• 31:32
  Thursday, everybody. Let's even get a couple winners
• 31:34
  on the college basketball hard court.
• 31:36
  And of course, I will see you tonight, 6:00 PM Eastern Time
• 31:39
  for the Rhythm Rundown. Very much looking forward to
• 31:42
  that. So good luck everybody, and I'll
• 31:43
  see you tomorrow for episode 434 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 31:47
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 31:50
  Good luck everybody and have a great Thursday night.