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Which Shocking Team Will Steal A 2025 College Football Playoff Spot? · Buckeyes TomOrrow Morning

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  Speaker 1: Welcome to Buckeyes tomorrow morning for Friday August eight, im
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: your host Tom or the Texas game in twenty two days, Yes,
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  Speaker 1: just three weeks and one day away. The game against
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  Speaker 1: Michigan in one hundred and thirteen days. If you're planning
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  Speaker 1: vibes on today's show absolutely immaculate because it is one
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  Speaker 1: of my favorite shows. It's one of those shows where
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  Speaker 1: Tony Gerderman comes on and we have to do something
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  Speaker 1: that makes us both feel like just the dumbest idiots
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  Speaker 1: on earth. Because this is an exercise we did last year.
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  Speaker 1: We will have the accountability section up front, we revisit
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  Speaker 1: how it went last year, but this is an exercise
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  Speaker 1: that we started last year. It's based on a study
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  Speaker 1: by Ralph Russo, who was at that point of the AP.
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  Speaker 1: I think he's changed affiliations since then, but what he
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  Speaker 1: did is he went back ten years and found that
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  Speaker 1: based on the preseason polls, an average of four of
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  Speaker 1: the top five preseason teams would have made the twelve
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  Speaker 1: team college Football Playoff over that ten year span. So
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  Speaker 1: four teams out of the top five in the preseason poll,
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  Speaker 1: two of the teams from ranked from six to ten
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  Speaker 1: would have made it, two of the teams from eleven
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  Speaker 1: to twenty would have made it, one of the teams
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  Speaker 1: from twenty one to twenty five would have made it,
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  Speaker 1: and three teams that were unranked in the preseason ap
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  Speaker 1: pole would have made that twelve team college football Playoff
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  Speaker 1: field in an average year over that ten year span.
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  Speaker 1: So what we set out to do last year, of course,
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  Speaker 1: supposed to figure out, Okay, who are those teams going
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  Speaker 1: to be? And now we know, Tony, I was honestly
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  Speaker 1: shocked at looking at it now you know. We will
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  Speaker 1: get into our specific predictions in a minute, but the
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  Speaker 1: rule held pretty close to true last year.
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  Speaker 2: It's funny because as I'm doing this this year, I
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  Speaker 2: wanted to go back, like, well, how serious do I
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  Speaker 2: need to be about this? Because I'm sure it wasn't
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  Speaker 2: accurate last year, So like how crazy will this be?
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  Speaker 2: And I'm going back and it's like, well, that fits,
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  Speaker 2: that fits, and that fits all the way up until
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  Speaker 2: the second last bit of just one team from twenty
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  Speaker 2: one to twenty five that I don't think hit. So
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  Speaker 2: then there's four unranked teams. But those first three major
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  Speaker 2: slots in the top twenty were filled just the way
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  Speaker 2: the formula said. So that made me a little bit
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  Speaker 2: angry as I sat down to look at this year's
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  Speaker 2: top twenty five.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, you look at this last year and you think, oh,
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  Speaker 1: come on, like, certainly more of the higher ranked teams
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  Speaker 1: are going to make it than this. And as you said,
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  Speaker 1: you go through and know the only exception was that
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  Speaker 1: more of the unranked teams in the preseason made it.
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  Speaker 1: We'll just we'll do a real quick run through last
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  Speaker 1: year's predictions just to sort of show our work on this.
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  Speaker 1: Four of the top five teams in the preseason ap
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  Speaker 1: pole made it to the College Football Playoff last year.
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  Speaker 1: We both predicted the correct teams Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon,
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  Speaker 1: and Ohio State. We both picked Alabama to miss it
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  Speaker 1: among those teams, and Alabama missed it. So there you go.
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  Speaker 1: Check mark for both of us. Two of the teams
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  Speaker 1: ranked from six to ten in the preseason poll that
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  Speaker 1: was Penn State, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Michigan, and Florida State.
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  Speaker 1: Tony got one of the two. He picked Penn State
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  Speaker 1: and ole Miss. I picked Notre Dame in ole Miss.
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  Speaker 1: I had actually I had Notre Dame and Penn State
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  Speaker 1: and kind of talked myself out of it. So almost
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  Speaker 1: but not quite, so, you know, not bad we were in.
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  Speaker 1: You know, Ole Miss did not miss it by much,
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  Speaker 1: so we were not too far off there. Two of
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  Speaker 1: the teams ranked from eleven to twenty in the preseason poll.
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  Speaker 1: This is out of a group of Missouri, Utah, LSU, Clemson, Tennessee, Oklahoma,
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  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Miami, and Texas A and M.
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  Speaker 1: Tony picked Missouri and Clemson. He also mentioned Tennessee, so
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  Speaker 1: he was you know, you can give him one and
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  Speaker 1: a half there. Tennessee was kind of the next next
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  Speaker 1: one out for him. I picked Utah and Miami and
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  Speaker 1: mentioned how stupid I was for picking Miami because I
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  Speaker 1: knew what Miami was going to do, and mentioned I
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  Speaker 1: really should have picked cleums in but I didn't, So,
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  Speaker 1: you know, give me a half a point there. I
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  Speaker 1: guess from twenty one to twenty five, we had to
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  Speaker 1: pick one out of Arizona, Kansas, USC, North Carolina State,
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  Speaker 1: and Iowa. Tony initially picked USC, then changed his vote
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  Speaker 1: to Iowa. I picked Iowa. Obviously none of those teams
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  Speaker 1: were made it. So there you go. That wasn't our fault.
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  Speaker 1: That was listen, blame Kirk ference. It's not our fault.
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  Speaker 1: And then from the unranked teams among them, the four
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  Speaker 1: teams that made it Indiana, Arizona State, SMU, and Boise State.
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  Speaker 1: Both Tony and I had Boise State among our teams,
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  Speaker 1: but not any of the others, which you know, I'm
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  Speaker 1: sorry I picked. I picked Nebraska, so I had and
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  Speaker 1: I gave a long, impassioned speech about how this Big
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  Speaker 1: ten team that whereas Red and White, is going to
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  Speaker 1: ride a very very soft schedule into sort of waking
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  Speaker 1: into a shocking college football playoff. Broth Tony, I think
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  Speaker 1: I get like three quarters from a point for that, right,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, that's it's basically like Indiana West, right, Uh.
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  Speaker 2: Cream and Crimson is not Red and White, So I
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  Speaker 2: don't it's not even remote. They're not even in the
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  Speaker 2: same time zone most of the year.
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  Speaker 1: All right, well, all right, well that's it's a good thing.
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  Speaker 1: I get to keep the score here and you don't,
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  Speaker 1: so I want again, as always, don't go back and
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  Speaker 1: check the math. It's fine, but it was. It was
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  Speaker 1: really interesting because I had forgotten how painful this exercise
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  Speaker 1: is because you feel like the dumbest idiot on earth
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  Speaker 1: when you're going, oh, come on, Alabama's not going to
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  Speaker 1: make it, but Auburn is or Nebraska is absolutely and
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  Speaker 1: so you feel like a real dumb dumb. But as
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  Speaker 1: we saw last year, the rule did kind of hold.
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  Speaker 1: So we're going to go through this whole exercise, slightly
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  Speaker 1: painful exercise once again. We have a thread on our board,
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  Speaker 1: the huddle board presented by Jeff Ruby's Columbus at Buckey
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  Speaker 1: Huddle Dot, where we are sort of challenging our members
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  Speaker 1: to see if they can beat us. Good luck with
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  Speaker 1: all that, all right, So Tony, let's start with the
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  Speaker 1: first bucket. Top five teams, and we're using coaches poll
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  Speaker 1: this year because the ap pole is not out yet.
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  Speaker 1: So top five teams Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia,
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  Speaker 1: Notre Dame. This is a group that you look at
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  Speaker 1: it and you're like, well, I could make a very
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  Speaker 1: compelling case for all of these teams making it, but
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  Speaker 1: history indicates that one will not. So Tony, who is
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  Speaker 1: the odd team out? For you?
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  Speaker 2: A lot of this exercises me just going through the
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  Speaker 2: schedules and finding three losses and eliminating that team. And
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  Speaker 2: when I did this the first time, I eliminated Texas,
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  Speaker 2: and then I went back and I was like, Notre
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  Speaker 2: Dame doesn't need three losses to not make it, they
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  Speaker 2: just need two losses to not make it. So I
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  Speaker 2: ended up finding two losses for them, and I late change,
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  Speaker 2: I eliminated Notre Dame from this group, and I think
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  Speaker 2: that's maybe what most people will do, but it's not
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  Speaker 2: that simple.
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  Speaker 1: No, and I kind of did the same thing, and
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  Speaker 1: I also ended up with Notre Dame being out Texas.
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  Speaker 1: You know, I think Texas could have potentially three losses,
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  Speaker 1: but if they lose, you know, whoever loses that first
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  Speaker 1: game Texas at Ohio State, whoever wins it, to me
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  Speaker 1: is functionally in at that point. Whoever loses it. I
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  Speaker 1: think that's the kind of game that if you have
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  Speaker 1: two losses at the end of the year, or maybe
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  Speaker 1: even three in a soft year, that's the kind of
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  Speaker 1: loss that I think the committee might be willing to
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  Speaker 1: sort of overlook if it's a close game. So yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I went with Notre Dame as well. I just looked
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  Speaker 1: at their schedule. This is all the teams. These are
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  Speaker 1: some of the teams that are under schedule that they
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  Speaker 1: have to play before October twentieth at Miami, Texas A
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  Speaker 1: and m at Arkansas, Boise State, and USC. To me,
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  Speaker 1: that's five at least plausibly losable games in the front
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  Speaker 1: half of the schedule. Back half of the schedule is terrible.
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  Speaker 1: So if you lose a couple of games early, I
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  Speaker 1: think you might be you know, that might be a
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  Speaker 1: ten and two team that gets a lot left out
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  Speaker 1: if you're sort of three and two in those games
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  Speaker 1: by October twentieth and then your play it's like Navy
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  Speaker 1: and Stanford and Syracuse and it is a very unimpressive
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  Speaker 1: back half of the schedule, Pittsburgh, I think. So, I
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  Speaker 1: think Notre Dame may be the team that is the
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  Speaker 1: odd man out there. So okay, we have consensus there.
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  Speaker 1: Now this is where I think we probably break down
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  Speaker 1: very quickly. Two from this bucket of six to ten
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  Speaker 1: in the rankings, Clemson, Oregon, Alabama, LSU, and Miami. One
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  Speaker 1: thing that I did find somewhat instructive based on last
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  Speaker 1: year's show was we were going through and we were
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  Speaker 1: trying to be intelligent about, well, you know, there has
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  Speaker 1: to be an ACC team, there has to be a
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  Speaker 1: Big twelve team, there has to be a non Power
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  Speaker 1: five team, and you know, there it turned out there
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  Speaker 1: were two of you know, two of each of the
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  Speaker 1: of the ACC and Big twelve teams. But you know,
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  Speaker 1: I think that this is where I look at this,
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  Speaker 1: and that probably plays somewhat into my decision making process here.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I did the same thing. I'll give you my
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  Speaker 2: first one. I went with Clemson. Everybody's touting Clemson, so
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  Speaker 2: just go ahead and lock them in. That's like the
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  Speaker 2: free space of these five. But then I was going
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  Speaker 2: through and I think maybe Miami's not is the only
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  Speaker 2: team that I didn't have in. At some point, you know,
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  Speaker 2: you're really looking closely and it's like, well, how can
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  Speaker 2: you leave Oregona, how can you leave LSU out? Well,
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  Speaker 2: you know, LSU, if they lose right away, are they
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  Speaker 2: going to be If they lose right away, do they
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  Speaker 2: become last year's Clemson where they just you forget about them?
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  Speaker 2: And then boom, they pop back up. But an long answer, short,
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  Speaker 2: short answer, long time. I went with Clemson and LSU
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  Speaker 2: because I believe in Brian Kelly. I believe that Brian
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  Speaker 2: Kelly can get the job done. And again it was
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  Speaker 2: just going through looking for three losses, and you can
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  Speaker 2: find three losses on all five of these schedules. But
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  Speaker 2: I went with Clemson LSU. Interestingly, they opened the season
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  Speaker 2: against each other.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, they do. That feels like that's going to be
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  Speaker 1: It's sort of kind of in the same bucket as
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  Speaker 1: the Ohio State Texas game, but a little bit lower
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  Speaker 1: stakes magnitude kind of game. LSU keep finding a way
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  Speaker 1: to lose those games, but Clemson also feel finds a
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  Speaker 1: way to lose those games. So someone has to win
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: the Labor Day weekend game. This year, I went with Clemson,
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  Speaker 1: but I went with Alabama as my other team. There
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: had a couple of reasons for that. One is a
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: longtime front of the show. Brett sciancea of Pick six previews,
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  Speaker 1: has Alabama number four in the nation, so I feel
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  Speaker 1: like they might be a little bit of a value
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  Speaker 1: pick there for me. They also have two brand name
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  Speaker 1: non conference games that are also probably very winnable non
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  Speaker 1: conference games. They're at Florida State and then they play Wisconsin,
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  Speaker 1: so those they'll have two Power five conference wins out
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  Speaker 1: of the league. In the conference, they have to go
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  Speaker 1: to Georgia. That's probably a loss. Other than that. Vanderbilt
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  Speaker 1: at Missouri, Tennessee at home. They get Tennessee at home.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: At South Carolina, LSU they get at home. That was
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a tie breaker for me. Oklahoma
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  Speaker 1: they get at home, and then they're at Auburn. There's
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  Speaker 1: not outside of Georgia, there's not a game where I think, yeah,
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  Speaker 1: they're probably not going to win that one. They get
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: LSU at home. It just that to me. I think
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  Speaker 1: that kind of tips them over into the inn column
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  Speaker 1: for me over LSU. Organ's interesting. I think Oregon might
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  Speaker 1: be a year away. I think Oregon might be real,
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  Speaker 1: real good, Like twenty twenty six is their year. Twenty
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  Speaker 1: twenty five might be just a little bit of a
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: step back year. I probably should have four Big Ten
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  Speaker 1: teams in I don't, and Organ would probably be my
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: fourth Big Ten team in if I had the if
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  Speaker 1: I had the ability to keep them in a different bucket.
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  Speaker 1: But they are in here, so I'm leaving them out.
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  Speaker 1: So there you go. So I have Clemson and Alabama.
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  Speaker 1: Tony has Clemson and LSU.
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  Speaker 2: I did initially have Alabama, but then then I removed
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: them because of the bad losses last year. How do
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: we know there won't be another one this year? And
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  Speaker 2: that's that's where I went.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, so you go with someone safe like Brian Kelly stronger.
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  Speaker 1: All right, so what no Mario christophal respect, but this
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  Speaker 1: is boy. I gotta tell you. Rewatching last year's show
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: and seeing me do the Miami you thing to the
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: camera was just like, oh oh not not a great
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: moment in Buckey's Tomorrow Morning History.
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  Speaker 2: That's okay, all right, and you just did it again.
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  Speaker 1: I did well that I didn't pick them this year.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: This is you are going to the Pinstripe Bowl again.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: That's a different thing. Yes, So next up two out
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: of this next group of eleven to twenty. That group
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: is Arizona State, Illinois, South Carolina, Michigan, Ole, miss SMU, Florida, Tennessee, Indiana,
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  Speaker 1: and Kansas State. Now this is a group where you
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: had Arizona State make it, you had SMU make it,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: you had Tennessee make it. You had Indiana make it
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: last year, and Arizona State, SMU, and Indiana were all
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: among the unranked teams. So I looked at this and
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: I thought, boy, this feels like a little bit of
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  Speaker 1: a lag indicator where some of these teams are where
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: I'm probably crossing some of these out a little a
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  Speaker 1: little faster than some of the other groups. But it
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  Speaker 1: was also a group where I went, well, I don't
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  Speaker 1: absolutely think any of these teams are going to make it,
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  Speaker 1: but I also don't think any of these teams are
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: absolutely immediately out. So where did you land picking your
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  Speaker 1: two teams from this group?
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  Speaker 2: The first one I went with is it sounds like,
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: you know, recency bias, whatever. But SMU, because of their schedule,
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: they're at Clemson and that's obviously their toughest game. Everything
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: else is ACC. They get Miami at home, they do
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: have to go to you know, they play Baylor, and
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: they have to play at TCU. So these are some
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: rough Texas games for the old Southwestern Conference. But as
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: long as they stay where they need to be in
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: the ACC hunt, I think they can remain at two losses,
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: including maybe the ACC championship game, and if they make
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: it to the ACC Championship game, or is everything going
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: to hold the same way it did last year where
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: they both made it in of course, you know, we'll
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: see on that one. But I went with SMU, and
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: then I went with this team, and then it's like, no,
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: how about this one? And then it becomes Florida eliminating
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: like several of the teams that I wanted to take,
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: And now I'm choosing between Lane Kiffin and Joe Tennessee
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: quarterback Joey Aguilar, and well, you know what about South Carolina.
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: I just see too many losses there. I tried to
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: see what India. It's like, no, I'm not gonna I'm
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: not gonna go with Indiana. So I ended up and
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: I was hoping. I was like, let me look at
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Kansas State schedule and hopefully there's something there, and there's
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: there's not. So I went with SMU and Tennessee.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: All right, I mean it's okay, I don't I don't
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: hate it. We saw it last year. We saw it
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: last year with both of these teams. It's certainly possible.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: I went with two different teams, one of whom made
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: it last year. That was Arizona State Arizona State was
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: picked to finished life to the Big Twelve last year
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: and picked to finish first in the Big Twelve this year.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Someone from the Big twelve has to make it. So
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: I went with them. Their non conference schedule is not
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: particularly bad. You look at their schedule and it's just
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: kind of like, yeah, I could see them going twelve
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: and oh they're they're tough out of conference road games
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  Speaker 1: at Mississippi State, which is like, eh, not not the
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  Speaker 1: most challenging non conference game, and you can you could
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  Speaker 1: see them getting an argument for you know, hey, they
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: went on the road and won an SEC game, YadA, YadA, YadA.
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  Speaker 1: So I went with with Arizona State. First, I am
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: a big believer in Kenny Dillingham. I know they've got
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: to replace cam'skataboo, but you know, it is a it
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: is a talented team still, and I am a believer
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  Speaker 1: in Kenny Dillingham. The other one, Tony, last year I
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: picked Ole miss and I thought, well, that was stupid.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: I won't make that mistake again, Tony. I'm falling for
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the banana and the tailpipe for a second straight year. Tony. Certainly,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin can't screw this up. Right, I mean not again.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: They They were actually very very close to making it
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: last year. They lost three games by a combined like
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: I think it was fourteen points. They were very very
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: close last year. Their schedule this year is not particularly difficult,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: you know, all things considered, I can, I meant to
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: pull that up. I will, I have my I have Okay, yeah,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: go ahead and run run through the old miss Oh no, here,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: I have it right now. Georgia State at Kentucky, Arkansas, Tulane,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: LSU at home, Washington State at home at Georgia at
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma home for South Carolina, the Citadel home for Florida,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: and at Mississippi State. Your road games are at Mississippi
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: State at Kentucky. Those are about two of the easiest
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: games you could possibly get. At Oklahoma, which is in
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: mid tier, and then at Georgia. You're gonna lose the
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: at Georgia. Other than at Georgia, I don't see a
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: guaranteed loss on there. You get LSU at home where
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: you'd want them. That that feels real, real ten and
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: two to me, and ten and two as an SEC team,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: you're probably getting in.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: This. I was on the ole miss train as well.
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: I'm going through this and feel good about it. But
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: it's just the run of at Georgia, at Oklahoma, South
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: Carolina at home, then you get Citadel and then you've
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: got Florida. It feels like real good chance of more
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: than one loss there, assuming they'd be LSU. And yes,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: they do get LSU at home. But Tom, the way
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: you're talking up Old Miss, it's you have pretty much
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: guaranteed that they will be one in one after lost
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: at Kentucky and week two just say, you know.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: No, the way this goes wrong, and we've seen Ole
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: Miss seasons go wrong in just about every possible way.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: The way this goes wrong is they are nine and
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: two heading into the Egg Bowl and they go in
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: they have to play in Starkville and it's not a
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: very good Mississippi State team. Tony, it's the Egg Bowl.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: What could possibly go wrong?
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: It's nine and two versus two and nine. You know
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: what's going to go wrong.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: You know exactly how this is going to go wrong exactly.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: So all right, so now you need to pick one
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: out of the group from twenty one to twenty five.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: This is the one that did not hit last year.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M Iowa State BYU Texas Tech Boise State.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: This feels like if you have not picked a Big
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: twelve champion and you're doing you're playing along in the
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: home version, this is the place to find you're a
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Big twelve champion.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: But if you do that, then we're what group of five,
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: group of six champ are you going to go with?
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: So I wanting to pick Texas Tech. Having predicted Texas
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: Tech in a different series that I did, a written
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: series that I did this summer, I could not do
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: so here and so I went with Boise State. I
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: locked in my group of five group of six here
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: with Boise State. This is a very familiar playoffs from
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: last year. So you know, I would like to see
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: some different different teams, But right now Boise State gets
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: all of the most of the worst teams. The road
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: games are against the worst teams in the Mountain West,
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: say for air Force, so their schedule sets up well,
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: they do have the Notre Dame game, but you know
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: somebody's got to be that group of five team.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they do, and Boise State hit for both of
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: us last year. This one. I looked at this and
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: I thought, this is a value pick for me. I
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: went with Texas A and M Brett Siancia that from
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Pick six previews has them number twelve in the nation.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: I'm getting them in the twenty one to twenty five bucket.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to I'm going to just sort of
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: play the odds here and take Texas A and M
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: as the fourth SEC team in behind Texas, Georgia and Alabama.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: You're going to get four SEC teams in this year,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: so it's either going to be oh, sorry, I had
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: all miss so that'll be five, but we're going to
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: get You're gonna well, and I only have three Big
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: ten teams, so you know it's you're going to have
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: to have Just because of the way these teams are
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: sort of bracketed or bucketed, you're going to end up
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: with some weird ones. You know, this is going to
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: be tony. They the SEC got got you know, they
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: had so many teams narrowly miss out last year, you
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: can't possibly have them miss out again this year. Come on,
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: we all saw Indiana. How did the big SEC do
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: outside of you know, it doesn't matter, that doesn't matter.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: Let's just talk about how Indiana did last year where
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: they playing n SEC team what does that have to
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: do with anything? All right, Tony, But yes, I'm taking
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: I'm taking Texas A and M. I did strongly consider
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: taking a taking a Big twelve team in here. I
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: just I think Arizona State. I thought about punting Arizona
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: State and taking Texas Tech, frankly, but Arizona State just
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: feels a little a little more likely the whole Big twelve.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: I just was going to the whole Big twelve, and
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: it's like, how is everyone going to finish exactly five
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: hundred in conference? But it feels like that's kind of
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: how it's going to go this year. So all right,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: so there you go. So that's that one. Now onto
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: the unranked teams. We got to pick three from the
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: group of unranked teams, and theoretically you could pick anyone
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: from the unranked teams. I'll just read through the list
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: of the others receiving votes, which are presumably going to
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: be the most likely Oklahoma, Missouri, Louisville, USC, Utah, Baylor, Auburn, Iowa, Memphis, Army, Tulane,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech, TCU, Nebraska, Syracuse, Washington, Navy, Arkansas, Duke, Colorado, Minnesota,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: U NLV, Florida State, Kansas, Vanderbilt, and Buffalo are those
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: are the others receiving votes in this thing. But you
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: know you can if you want to pick Akron and like,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: go ahead. You can pick Akron or Kent State, either
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: one you you can choose, choose your own adventure. But Tony,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: where are you headed? With the three unranked teams.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: I'll start from the bottom of my list here because
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: they show up first in my fell Steel magazine. I
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: need another Big ten team and this is a Big
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: ten team that I think can get there, and because
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: of their schedule, and I went with Nebraska and because
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: not because you went with them and failed miserably list
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: year time. And I'm going to be the hero that
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: saves the day. Michigan at home, Michigan State at home,
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: at Maryland at Minnesota, Northwestern at home, USC at home
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: at UCLA at Penn State, Iowa home. There's one definite
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: loss on that schedule, and I know Nebraska and close
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: games have not gone well over the years. Matt rules
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: doing better. You know, they were seven and six last year.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: I like because we got to pick somebody, and there's
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: only been two Big ten teams selected, and I'm and
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: based on this time, there's a real good shot there
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: are only two Big Ten teams that make the playoffs
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: this year, which is crazy. So that's why I felt
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: like I had to go with somebody, and maybe maybe
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: Illinois gets in earlier and something like that, but I
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: went with Nebraska as my first one.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, I like the fact that you and I
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: are learning from our mistakes from last year, but not
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: learning from each other's mistakes, because you had USC until
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: the very end of the show and then you changed
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: your mind after I sort of talked to you into Iowa.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: I'm going to you, you were not going to learn
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: from my Nebraska mistake last year. I am not going
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: to learn from your USC mistake last year. This is
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: a manageable schedule. They have to You have Missouri State
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern at Purdue, Michigan State at Illinois. That's your
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: first potentially losable game. Michigan at home, potentially losable at
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame, losable at Nebraska, losable, Northwestern Iowa at home,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: potentially losable at Oregon. You've got You've got a bunch
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: of losable games. But there's not anything other than maybe
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: at Oregon that I look at and go, this is
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: definitely a loss. Maybe at Notre Dame you've everything else,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: it's it's manageable and it should be better this year.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: For USC, I'm not. I don't feel great about this,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: so they'll be real honest, I really don't feel great
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: about this, But I would not feel great about Nebraska either.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Nebraska's going to be better, but it just it feels
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: like better for Nebraska's like eight and four, nine and three,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: not ten and two. Better for USC feels like ten
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: and twos a possibility, but I don't love it. But
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: you know this is these are teams that are unranked
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: in the preseason. So yeah, you're you're not. This is
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: all teams that you don't feel great about. And you
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: know if we if one of us had said Indiana
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: last year, we'd still be recording because one of us
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: would still be laughing. So you like, this is these
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: are teams where you're going to have someone come like
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: way out of left field and make it. I sure, USC, why.
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: Not, Well, you're we've just guaranteed maybe Washington by I
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: could see that happening. But you know, in terms of USC,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: I wonder for putting giving Oregon too much credit. You
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: know great, you know, Audson is a really difficult place
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: to play. I wonder what these two teams look like
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: when they play November twenty second, because they're what does
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: USC look like at that point? How is the quarterback play?
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: What is the defense doing at that point? So I
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: I was looking at USC as well. I just didn't
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: like all of the toss ups, and that's why I
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: went with Nebraska with fewer toss ups in theory. My
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: second one, Tom, how about this Georgia Tech. Now, let
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: me tell you they opened the season at Colorado, then
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: they get Gardner Webb, Clemson at home, Temple at wake Forest,
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: Virginia take at home at Duke Syracuse at NC State
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: at Boston College, Pittsburgh at home, Georgia at home in Atlanta.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: So again, I like the schedule. I like Haines King. Now,
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: is it gonna last the entire season? I don't think so.
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I like that would be nice if
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: he did, or if at least shows up at the
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: end to h to get them there. But I can
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: see this being a ten to two team and them
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: getting the NOD over a nine to three sec team
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: based on you know, they're gonna they're gonna have what
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: did they do against Georgia, what did they do against Clemson?
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: They're they're gonna have the opportunity to show that they're strong.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I like this one a lot. And my second
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: pick was it's going to be one of these two.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: And I was going back and forth between Georgia Tech
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: and Louisville Wouisville and ended up picking the Cardinals. They
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: had They are literally twenty seven and twenty eight in
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: Pick six previews, and you know those are so that's
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: about as close as you can get. And they don't
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: play each other this year, so you don't have the
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: head to head to sort of decide it. I'll run
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: through their schedule. Eastern Kentucky James Madison, Bowling Green at
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: pitt Virginia at Miami. That's the first one that I
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: look at and go, yeah, that's a that's a real like,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: that's a likely loss. Home for Boston College at Virginia Tech,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: home for cal home for Clemson. That's a real opportunity
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: for a signature win if they can get it at
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: SMU and then home for Kentucky. Georgia Tech is probably
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: going to lose its season finale against Georgia, which is
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: you know, that'll slide you down on the polls a
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: little bit. If they can just split Clemson in at
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: SMU and then beat Kentucky, that probably pushes them up
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: just enough. I think they're top two, top three in
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: the ACC. And you have the opportunity to beat a Clemson,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: you have the opportunity to beat an SMU, you have
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: the opportunity to beat in Miami. You're playing the top
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: two teams projected in the ACC. If you split with
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: Clemson in Miami, you can lose someone, you lose one
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: somewhere else and still potentially get in. So I will
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: go with Louisville for my second, one of the unranked teams.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, we've been talking about this for years, the
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: ACC rivalry between Louisville and SMU, how that could shape
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. And this is exactly what we've been telling
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: you about. We've been warning you, we've been talking about it,
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: and here you're going to see it this year. Tom
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: My final one I need, as I scrolled through here,
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: I need a big twelve team.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: And so you have your choice of seventeen of them
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: or eighteen of them and they're all about equally likely
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: to hit, so good luck.
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: And this is where I get into the I won't
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: go into the thought that the Big Twelve Commission is
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: silly for winning the five plus eleven, because the Big
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: twelve is going to have a hard time getting more
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: than one in, certainly more than two in in most years.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: I'm going with Baylor to win the Big Twelve. They
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: do have smut on the road. They've got Auburn at
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: home to start the season, so, I mean, this is
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: a legit schedule. But all I have to do is
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: when at Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State's pretty bad. They're at TCU,
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: They're at Cincinnati, They're at Arizona. These are not great teams.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: They've got Arizona State at home. They've got Kansas State
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: at home. They've got Utah home, so they get the
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: better teams at home. Do I love it?
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: No?
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: Do I need to? Can they be nine and four?
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: They sure can with the Big Twelve conference championship win.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate it. I think frankly, I think
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: you could take just about any team out of the
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: Big Twelve, and I guy would kind of go like, yeah,
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: I mean I could see it. I mean, I don't.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: I don't hate it. I don't hate it is about
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: the best description of every Big twelve team. I don't
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: love it, but I don't hate it. And you know,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: you tell me Kansas State is the Big twelve rep
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: this year? Yeah, sure, I always State, Absolutely, fine, b Yu,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: sure absolutely, Cincinnati they're in the Big twelve, right, yeah, okay, sure, yeah, fine,
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: I can see that. Whatever. You could talk me into
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: just about anyone there. And so yeah, I don't I
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: don't have anything negative to say. Sure fine, Maybe I
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: need to pick my non Power five team, and I
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: had one written down and then boy, I almost talk
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: myself out of it. I am going to stick with Memphis,
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: the Memphis Tigers. They have Arkansas out of conference and
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: they get them at home in the Liberty Bowl. The
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: rest of the schedule very very manageable. Their road games
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: this year at Georgia State, at Troy, at Florida, Atlantic,
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: at UAB at Rice, at East Carolina, they get Tulane
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: at home, they get us F at home, they get
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Arkansas at home. It's it's a manageable schedule. They get
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: Navy at home to wrap up the season. So it's
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: a pretty manageable schedule for them, and they have been
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: one of those teams that's just sort of been knocking
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: on the door for so long and they haven't quite
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: gotten there. And the American is not quite as good
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: as it used to be. And you know, Memphis, Memphis
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: used to be, you know, the second level down in
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: the American and then all the teams from the top
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: level are now playing in the Big Twelve. And it's
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: just like, at some point it has to happen for
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: Ryan Silverfield there right like I thought. I thought it
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: was gonna happen last year. So I'm going to go
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: with Memphis, Tony. Let me tell you the other team
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: that we're going way off the board here, the UNLV
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: running Rebels. You know, you know who their coach is
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: right now?
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: I sure do. And I was looking forward to Dan
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: Mullen and he's got a couple of quarterbacks that can
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: run the ball, which he loves to have. And I
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: think Kevin Noon threw a thread on the board today
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: like which week zero games are you watching? And I'm like,
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: I want to see what that UNLV team looks like
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: and that'll be interesting. But I like that one. It's
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: it is off the board. They were right in it
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: last year. They were playing for the playoffs against the
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: Boise State last year, and even talking with Barry otom
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: at Big ten media days when I was asking him
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: about the four four two two one and the play
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: in games, like hey, man, I lived it. I want
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: it like I want it. I love the team, the
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: energy around the program and the team when you're still
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: in it and you're playing for the playoffs, like it's
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: there's nothing like it. So he's all for it. Memphis.
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: I do wonder if a thirteen to o Memphis does
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: that trump at twelve and one Boise State with the
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: loss to Notre Dame, because as you said, like Mountain
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: West is up here, and AAC or just the American
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: now a little is like down here. So I do
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: wonder even at I guess the thirteen and I would
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: have to look good and maybe not a seventeen to
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: sixteen win over Arkansas Arkansas, but even then, like hey,
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: it's a win over the SEC.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, if they've got to win over a power conference
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: team in Boise State, dozens and you could you could
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: sell me on that. We've seen Boise State look really good.
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: But Boise State last year with genty was kind of
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: non competitive with Penn State, and while that probably shouldn't
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: get held against them, it might get held against them
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: that you you know, we've seen Boise State against a
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: good team. Why why do we you know, why would
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: we want to do that again? They don't have their
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: their star player this year. So yeah, I think I
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: would honestly maybe even have made the choice to go
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: with UNLV, except they go to Boise on Saturday, October eighteenth,
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: and that's the week after they play Air Force and
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: you know how you kind of get beat up playing
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: a service Academy team, and that's two weeks after they
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: go have to go to Altitude in Wyoming. So it
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: just feels like that might be just a little too much.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: And if you lose to Arkansas, then you're you're really
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: kind of behind the eight ball and you really have
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: to run the table after that. So yeah, I'll I'm
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: gonna stick with Memphis. But I think it's you know,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: I think it's plausible that you you could see someone
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: like real off the board, like n I'll be sneaking in.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: So anything else, Tony, anything which one which one of
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: the picks either from you or for me, is the
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: most likely for us to be, you know, like laughably
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: out of it by like October fifth.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: I agree with your criticism of my third grouping of
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: SMU and Tennessee. It's like, well, those guys were there
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: last year, and are they going to hit again? But this, Hey,
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: we tell everybody out there, go do this. See how
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: you feel, see what you think about it, see how
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: happy you are with it, because you're going to make
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: some Sophie's choices in this where it's you can't believe
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: you're leaving somebody out, but you have to. And you
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: can't believe you're leaving three of these teams out, but
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: you have to. So I feel like I'm hoping Baylor, Georgia, Tech,
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: Nebraska all hit because I'm gonna be telling you about
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: it as long as I don't forget about it, and
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: I will soon forget about it. But yeah, I'm gonna
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: be looking for those three teams, and not that I'll
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: be rooting for any of these teams, but I'll be
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: rooting against some of your teams no time. I know
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: that for sure.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like the unranked teams you can sort
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: of handwave that and go, yeah, that's just basically, you're
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: just picking a lottery ticket. The group that I look
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: at and I'm like, man, I might go oh for
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: two here, Like there's a decent chance I go oh
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: for two. Here is Arizona State and Ole miss just
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: like there's a lot of ways that could go wrong
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: for me. So we'll see, we will, and we will
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: do our very best to remember to do an accountability
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: show this time next year to take a look at
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: how this all U, how this all played out? And
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: as Tony said, yeah, you're probably thinking these morons, how
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: would they pick these How could you possibly pick that team?
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: I would encourage you to do this exercise, and it
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: would encourage you to do it on the huddleboard presented
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: by Jeff Ruby's Columbus, where we can all look and
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: laugh at each other's picks together. Always always a good time,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: always a fun community. There. You can become a member
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: at bucke huddle dot com right now for just under
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: five bucks a month. For your first month, get access
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: to our whole team of insiders covering the Buckeyes, covering recruiting,
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: covering X's nose, and much much more that first month. Now,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: of course we'll cover that Texas game one versus two
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: in the nation should be a lot to talk about
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: there at bucke huddle dot com. That'll do it for today.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: Thank you guys all for joining us. Have a great day.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: We'll talk jenmorrow.