Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | July 13, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | July 13, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:05
Fall. System's going clear, the lifting, what is going on? Ben
0:38
Nate, everybody else watching and my man, Big Marley Friday. That means
0:43
talking some fights, Big Marley. It got even better. We just went
0:46
from at least I went from listening to Tambo and who talked some NFL Early
0:50
Bird special. You know we're talking NFL. It's somewhat close to here preseason
0:55
ball, like a month away, less than sixty days till the NFL season.
0:59
Very for that. Mm May is still going on, NASCAR, PGA,
1:03
MLB, lots of money still be made. The weather is very nice
1:07
as well. Nice time to enjoy it with the family. No one enjoying
1:11
it with the family tomorrow though, Baby Twelve fights in Denver live fans check
1:15
elevation. That always adds an interesting dynamic. But man, I think it's
1:19
a good DFS card, which I was scared about. So like DK only
1:23
had seven fights earlier in the week, so people were getting scared. It
1:26
was eleven they added Evan Elder Darius Flowers. Twelve fights is my magical number,
1:32
So I love that. Main events, I think you can get away
1:34
from it. Not one that's gonna be like ninety percent owned, only two
1:38
favorites above minus three fifty capped all twelve fights. At least everyone made weight
1:42
except Tracy Cortez, and she cuts some of her hair to get down to
1:47
one twenty six. It was one twenty six point five. Now one twenty
1:51
six should be good for all twelve fights. Seven pm Eastern Live fans.
1:55
I'm pumped, big money up top. How you doing to it? I'm
1:57
good. Yeah, I didn't even know they we added the twelve fight until
2:00
this morning, so I had to look into that a little bit. Didn't
2:04
know about the cut hair either. Gotta affect our game plan though, But
2:07
yeah, looking forward to this one. I think it's a good DFS card
2:08
as well, especially an MM card, because I feel like I can make
2:13
a case for every underdog on the card. But I think the mid range
2:15
is gonna be really important this week. Absolutely before we get into it,
2:20
of course, shout out our sponsor sponsoring the show, Drafters big merily and
2:23
already did our first best ball show. We'll be doing one a week.
2:28
Have a portion in the discord. Not sure that contest is gonna fill no
2:31
better time A two dollars and a fifteen dollars contested Drafters five hundred up top
2:36
in the big one five hundred k. That is, go to ship it
2:39
or go to drafters dot com, use that promo code chip it. They
2:43
will match one hundred percent up to one hundred dollars. And I also want
2:46
to show all this we do not have. We have a deal. It's
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NFL fifty for NFL packages right here. Just gonna do very briefly talking MMA
2:58
if you if you want to plan on joining us for the NFL season,
3:00
there's no better time to get in right now. NFL fifty is the code.
3:04
We'll get there in a sec. You can just see very briefly our
3:07
NFL packages what ours is. You can look at the colors, coordinate it
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however you think anyway, We are the cheapest by far for the NFL package
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right here. You go to the next one. Do we have an optimizer?
3:17
We do, and only one other of the competitors have an optimizer,
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so we don't have to add on if you are a member at chip it,
3:24
the NFL package two hundred ninety nine dollars and that is with promo code
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NFL fifteen twentdre ninety nine dollars, no add on for the optimizer. Total
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you're paying two hundred and ninety nine bucks. There is more. I'll get
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to that in a sec. The other companies four to twenty five with an
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optimizer, then you're adding three hundred almost six hundred bucks, and almost five
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hundred bucks just on top of the NFL content to get an optimizer you see
3:51
right there, three hundred bucks over you at chip a nation, up to
3:53
one thousand places at some other spots. Hey, the goal is to make
3:58
money. How you make money in DFL you need to play money in those
4:00
contests, pay less for content. You do still need content, projections,
4:05
ownership tools. Pretty really, it's pretty hard nowadays to succeed in DFS in
4:11
twenty twenty four without any of that. You need some baseline. But it's
4:15
hard to play one thousand bucks when you're only playing what fifty bucks a week
4:18
something like that, fifty bucks a night even and profit on that. Again,
4:24
consumers supply and demand. You guys are the consumers. You spend your
4:27
money however you want. I do like this little graft though, to show
4:30
not only are you paying the least amount with an optimizer and NFL content,
4:34
you also get, as you see down below, early bird access. You
4:39
sign up now free IMLB, MMA, PGA, all access to the site
4:45
discord. So you're buying NFL two months free of content all the way up
4:48
until that, and also you get college football will not be charged, so
4:53
college football is free go to other places. Two hundred three hundred bucks out
4:58
there. Again, we won't have an optimized for that. We'll have the
5:00
Stone Projections DGEN running that Smarty absolutely on fire. Check out the early Bird
5:05
special video. Hoop and Tambo just did hamble or Tambo who answered more questions
5:12
talked more in depth about it. But all you got to do is ship
5:15
a nation. You'll see a banner onner site. You can click that get
5:17
the two hundred and ninety nine dollars. Otherwise, if you go to ship
5:21
a Nation and join through the NFL like you're cooking three hundred and forty nine
5:26
dollars, make sure to use that promo code NFL fifty to get fifty dollars
5:29
off. That package includes the ship de Miser, three hundred bucks, NFL
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and two months of all access. Then you can't upgrade when that time comes
5:38
as well. You really just can't beat the deal. As you see,
5:41
compared to the rest of the industry. Big Marley thoughts on that thoughts on
5:45
this twelve fight card before we go fight by fight. Yeah, man,
5:48
I'm excited. I cannot wait for NFL season. We crushed it last year
5:51
and I haven't watched their show yet, but after the show, I'll be
5:55
going back and checking out Tambo and Hoop seeing what they have to say.
5:58
But I'm stoked about this in NFL season. So we got MMMA and NFL
6:01
coming up. Best time of the year. Yeah, no better time again.
6:04
Ship nation dot com check that out. Twenty k, mister, twenty
6:08
k tiers over there. We do have tiers, prime time content, the
6:12
niche of the niche as well. So much money. People always think Classic
6:15
Slates showdown. There is so much money and so many afternoon slates got one
6:18
hundred k's up. Top tiers got over twenty k. So much money to
6:23
be made. Fine. Where you have the edge, we try and give
6:26
you the best. We have education videos too, make a process, find
6:30
the niche of the niches. If you're a satellite guy, qualifier guy,
6:32
whatever it may be, ship a Nation has you covered. Yeah, fight
6:36
education courses. We'll have our MMA one next week. So if you guys
6:40
are in the MMA. We got it for you over there. Oh yeah,
6:43
we're very, very excited for that. So look on look on that.
6:46
That'll be on the horizon twelve Fights, Big Marley. Again, my
6:49
broad slate overview ownership is going to be spread out. We have nobody above
6:54
fifty percent, which I agree with, only two people we have over or
6:58
only two favorites over minus three fifty in that minus four to ten range.
7:02
You see minus four hundred lose in MMA, So there are no lots like
7:06
the Peyton Talbot of the World's main event plus two hundred to finish girls fights
7:12
as well. People might shy away a little bit. It's gonna get ownership,
7:15
but it's not gonna be ninety five combined ownership or ninety percent owned.
7:20
People will find fades in that, I think rightfully, So I'm not gonna
7:25
make any rules on this card. I got a couple x's and twenty in
7:29
below. If I'm playing one to fifty, I'm probably playing everyone on this
7:32
late though, I think it's a great card for dfs. You don't have
7:35
to get too too crazy. One of the better twelve fight cards is how
7:39
I see it. So what are your initial thoughts before we go fight by
7:42
fight, Yeah, no, all in fights for me, main event is
7:46
not a must. Mid Range is gonna be important, but it's just a
7:48
tough card to nail down the winners and have a really strong lean on all
7:53
these really tight, tight line fights anyway, So hopefully you can kind of
7:57
sway me one way or another. But look for breaking down what's up Eddie
8:01
Marquis and our man Rio Hope hope All y'all doing well out there, and
8:05
I do like your last point. Mid Range mid range is absolutely loaded.
8:09
Stars and scrubs will be more contrarian than the mid range this week, so
8:13
we'll keep that in mind. Fight by fight, twelve of them to talk
8:16
about bottom the top like usual. First fight of the nights Evan Elder Darius
8:22
Flowers. This was added on Wednesday. I've an ol their biggest favorite on
8:26
the car now minus four twenty six Darius Flowers plus three twenty six minus one
8:31
eighty for this fight to finish. Elder minus one twenty five Darius Flowers plus
8:37
four eighty Take it away, Big Marley, which you got. Yeah.
8:41
I think the only edge I can give to Flowers in this fight is just
8:46
punching power. So if he can knock out Elder, I think it's more
8:50
likely early. If he does get a knockout, he can absolutely break the
8:52
slate just with the first round knockout. But I think if Elder makes it
8:56
out of the first round, he's just gonna be more skilled everywhere. I
9:00
think he's the better minute winner on the feet. I think he's got the
9:01
better takedowns, better grappling, and I also think he's less likely to fade
9:05
throughout the fight. That we are at elevation here, so I imagine a
9:09
handful of people on this car can start to gas out, and I think
9:13
Flowers is more likely to do that than Elder. My issue with Elder is
9:16
that he's ninety four hundred dollars and he has to have a ceiling fight for
9:20
him to pay that off, and I don't know that I trust him to
9:24
do that. So this is a fight I'll probably look to get away from
9:26
rather than force it into any lineups. But I'm okay getting a little bit
9:31
of Flowers for that knockout potential at low ownership. And then Elder, he's
9:35
not super highly owned as as far as I can see, so I think
9:39
he's you could make a case to play him, but I would rather pay
9:41
less for a few other fighters, so I'll be looking at other fights more.
9:45
But this is one where I'll be okay if the ship Demiser throws in,
9:48
you know, twenty percent Elder, ten percent Flower, something like that,
9:50
but I'd prefer even less than that. Maybe if i'm handbuilding. Yeah,
9:56
I like this count comment Flowers. It's like a drug. But he
9:58
ass yeah. I mean I don't have too much more to argue with that,
10:03
so I won't be playing Flowers. I need fades. I got three
10:07
of them at twenty in below. I won't play any Flowers with twenty teams
10:09
or less. The Elder side, I'm going to play some because he's the
10:13
highest price fighter, the biggest favorite on the card. But you look at
10:16
our projected ownership and again it'll be a at schipennation dot com. After maybe
10:20
we'll say one or two, but it is premium content. You have to
10:24
be a member for ownership is pretty much the name of the game. When
10:28
it comes to MMA, He's going to be lower than bomb Theme and he's
10:31
gonna be lower than Juana Santo's. So if you play him up top instead
10:35
and even leave a couple hundred bucks on the table, one hundred bucks,
10:39
two hundred bucks. That is a way to get different with Evan Elder on
10:43
this card. And again it's gonna be We're not having multiple fighters over fifty
10:46
percent. Ownership is going to be pretty spread out on this card. A
10:50
lot of closely lined fights seven to twelve expected to finish. Evan Elder biggest
10:54
favorite on the card, minus won twenty five to finish, and you get
10:58
an ownership discount from other in his range when I don't think this is like
11:01
the tightest card in terms of salary. So I'm gonna be playing some Evan
11:05
Elder definitely my preferred side in this one. I got late finished for Evan
11:09
Elder two. Like I agree with you said, Flowers more dangerous early his
11:13
first fight in the UFC, very similar to this one short notice against Shake
11:16
Matthews up away class. Actually no, maybe it wasn't up a weight class,
11:20
so short notice at elevation in Utah, though I was there and he
11:24
literally talked about it in his tweet or Instagram posts a couple of days back.
11:28
Like I told myself I was gonna take another short notice fight, but
11:31
you gotta do what you gotta do. I'm ready for it, et cetera.
11:35
I think Elder with the cardio can put it on late. And if
11:37
he's given him a beatdown and he gets a late third round finish, you
11:41
know how many points can add up before that beatdown before they finally step in.
11:45
So yeah, I give me some Elder in this one. It will
11:46
not be playing Darius Flowers. Keep it rolling. Next fight on the card,
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closest line fight, because you can't get any closer to a pick on.
11:56
Actually minus one oh five minus one fifteen now, Joshua Friend, Andre
12:01
Petrowski. We have frem minus one oh five right now. Petrowski won fifteen
12:05
minus won sixty five for this fight to finish, Friend plus one fifty five,
12:09
Petroski plus two twenty five. Yeah, I mean we talked about this
12:13
mid tier. It's loaded starting eighty five hundred seventy seven hundred. That's Alissan
12:18
Cody Brundage, the most likely fight to finish on the card. The Klein
12:24
Jasmine fight isn't as good. Jasmin's seventy eight hundred and a favorite, so
12:28
she'll be popular. Then you get freend Petrowski right here, minus won sixty
12:33
five to finish, then you get dover Silva minus three hundred eighty two and
12:37
eight k. So this fight is going to get some ownership, but I
12:39
think it is a little lower owned than the Silva brundage fight. I think
12:43
it's a little lower owned than Alissan fights. But yeah, how do you
12:48
see it going expected to finish? Coin flip fight? What you got?
12:50
Yeah? I think it is a pretty good one. I do slightly favor
12:54
Petroski, but he's the one that's more likely to fade at elevation. But
13:00
he's somebody who like kind of gases out and fights, but still fights through
13:03
the fatigue, and when you think he's gassed out, he's finishing people in
13:07
the third round still, so I feel like he'll still be okay. But
13:09
I like him to have a big wrestling edge early in the fight, big
13:13
grappling edge early in the fight. Probably has the one punch power edge as
13:16
well, but frimmed, he's four hundred dollars more and now with the even
13:22
betting line, he should be lower owned in this fight and he is more
13:26
likely to finish according to Vegas at plus one fifty five compared to plus two
13:31
to twenty five for Petrowski. So I do think FRIMD makes some sense in
13:37
GPPs as well because of the lower lower ownership. He also has i'd say,
13:43
the better overall striking, probably more dangerous throughout the three rounds on the
13:48
feet, and then if Petrowski does start to gas out, he could have
13:50
the edge on the ground as well too. So I think, even though
13:54
I'm not picking him, I still want frimmed exposure just because of the lower
13:56
ownership. And then Petrowski, I just I think that wrestling grappling edge in
14:01
round one is gonna be if he decides to use it. I don't know
14:05
if I even trust him to go out there and wrestle like he should,
14:07
but if he does, I think he could finish the fight in the first
14:09
round and just break the slate right out of the gate. So I'll be
14:13
overweight to Patroski and probably close to the field, maybe slightly above on the
14:18
frim side. But I do feel like it's mostly front loaded on Petrowski because
14:22
he's the one I expect to slow down if it does go past, you
14:26
know, the first round and a half or so, and if he starts
14:28
to slow down, maybe friends could really put it on him. So if
14:31
you have a strong lean either way, I would say go overweight to that
14:33
person and then maybe around the field or under on the other one. But
14:37
I think this is a good one to target overall. Yeah, I like
14:39
your breakdown a lot. I think Petrowski is more front loaded. First round
14:43
finish I think would be Petrowski and wrestling grappling. Like, if someone's scoring
14:48
one to fifteen in this one, it's probably him, but it's not like
14:52
frem Can he scored over one hundred against Dumas. If he does, Petrowski
14:56
does slow down, it's at elevation, like from just so much more steady.
15:01
He's steady everywhere. He's fine on the map, he's fine on the
15:03
feet. He has some power. I do think he's the better striker in
15:07
this one, but Petrowski definitely the more dangerous grappler and more willing to wrestle.
15:13
But this was gonna come down to ownership for me, and I actually
15:16
hope Petronsky keeps taking money four hundred dollars cheaper now A slight favorite at minus
15:20
one fifteen, Velan gets like minus one twenty minus one twenty five. I
15:26
want to say that we have it right now I'll say this ownership Petrowski twenty
15:28
eight from nineteen give me friend at nine percent lower own in a coin flip
15:35
fight any day. So I'm gonna play the game theory there. But i
15:37
do want to say, as I've noticed probably the past like three months,
15:43
I'm amazed became way sharper. Like if you were playing a year ago,
15:46
even eight months ago, situations like this, you would get a Petrowski at
15:50
thirty two percent friend at eighteen percent. That's just wrong. People are playing
15:54
the let Like if you play poker, there's a level to level to level,
15:58
there's always level. When you're playing good players in poker, you have
16:02
to think how they're thinking play a different way because they gto strategy all that.
16:07
People here know, Okay, if it's really obvious Petroski is going to
16:11
be ten percent higher owned, the right play is friend. Well, there's
16:15
enough shark people mming putting in one hundred and fifty. They realize that now
16:18
they dictate ownership because they're going to go way more. Other side. Turns
16:22
out it's twenty six percent Petrowski twenty four Friend. Well, in that aspect,
16:26
I want Petrowski. So you have to really be thinking. It's tough.
16:30
I'm been struggling as of late. The levels to the level game you
16:34
do. Sometimes projected ownership people always use that, so they go based on
16:38
that projected ownership. You have to be thinking levels ahead. So I'm on
16:42
the front side because of that. But I would not be surprised, especially
16:47
if even if the line does widen, people get more confident that ownership will
16:51
go that way, and sometimes it doesn't. So I wanted to make that
16:55
point because it does fit on some of these some of these fights on this
16:57
card and just in general. We'll talk a little bit in the education video
17:02
as well, but I still like friend as the ownership discount. Right now?
17:07
What's going on, Siggy? How you doing? Man? Let's get
17:10
to the next fight on the car the second biggest favorite. We get the
17:12
biggest favorite and the second biggest favorite out of the way in the first three
17:15
fights. Actually best fight odds has that I don't know about. My sleigh
17:22
plan has Montel Jackson blackshere. Next we're gonna go Santos. Then will go
17:25
that one though, Lolano Santos Maria Agapova ninety two hundred Santos seven k is
17:30
Agapova, minus four to ten for Santos, plus three ten on the way
17:34
back for Agapova, minus one seventy for this fight to finish, minus one
17:38
fifty for Santos, plus eight hundred for Agapova. Very easy for me,
17:44
zero Agapova. Give me a lot of Santo's. Rumors on the street that
17:48
Agapova is homeless are gonna be homeless. She's been kicked out of her gym
17:52
in the past. She has no ground game. Santos has a ground game.
17:56
A power wrestler isn't homeless, has been training. The odds in this
18:02
one have absolutely gone all over the place. Obviously, I look at a
18:04
lot of steam and line movement. Santo's open minus three seventy five, got
18:11
all the way down to like minus one sixty range a couple days later on
18:15
June seventeenth, and just ever since then it has slowly but surely climbed,
18:19
And in this past week especially, it's been money's poured in on Santo's going
18:25
from like the minus two fifty range all the way down now to minus four
18:29
to ten. Give me line movements. She's gonna be high owned. But
18:33
I think there's big boy upside in this one, Yeah, I agree,
18:37
although I think Agapova has the first round striking edge in this fight and maybe
18:41
she could even knock Santos out early. She is aggressive, but the more
18:45
aggressive she is at altitude, she's a known gasser as it is, so
18:49
at altitude, I expect her to really fade throughout this fight, and then
18:53
she fades more when she's getting out grappled, and that's what Santos should look
18:57
to do here. If Santo's wrestles early, I think Akapova's in trouble and
19:00
maybe it's a matter of time before she gets submitted. But if Santos wrestles
19:06
aggressively or just hangs on to a lot of top control time, I don't
19:08
even think she needs a finish to score one hundred plus points in this fight.
19:12
So Santos is definitely my preferred play of the two, but she's gonna
19:17
be a lot more owned. I think Agapova is some what live to break
19:22
the slate with the first round finish, so I'll get a little bit of
19:25
exposure to her. She's similar to Darius Flowers for me, but I'll probably
19:30
be like around ten percent or so on her, and then Santos would be
19:33
closer to a core play rather than an underweight play, Like I'd be fine
19:38
getting up to like fifty percent Santos. To be honest with you, because
19:41
if she's wrestling early in this fight, I just really feel good about her
19:45
winning the fight because Agapov will slow down. I don't know that I expect
19:48
Santos to slow down. My worry for Santos is that she just keeps it
19:53
on the feet longer than she should. And if she goes out there and
19:56
wins a striking match, that's not good for us ninety two hundred dollars.
20:00
We need her to look for grappling and wrestling to pay off that price tag,
20:04
and not only pay off the price tag, but beat the other people
20:07
priced around her. I think she's gonna do it, so I do like
20:11
her, but that's my worry, and I have worries on every single fighter
20:14
on this card, though, So don't let me talk you off of her
20:18
for that reason. It's just that's that's how she doesn't make the optimal line
20:22
up. Yeah, Like, if I'm playing one hundred and fifty teams,
20:25
I'll probably play sam Aga Pova, one of the lowest owned fighters you get
20:29
leverage off of one of the highest owned fighters. It's just when I play
20:32
twenty teams or less. And again we're gonna talk about this in our education
20:36
video. People ask like how much of your processes props and lines versus like
20:41
tape and like you know ball as people like to say, well, it's
20:45
I definitely personal lean more on props and lines, but there is an I
20:48
know ball of tape. I watch them in MA every week. I want
20:52
some of my own opinion there. I just don't want lineup set or due
20:55
fifty plus times stuff like that. But when it comes to the fades,
20:57
like I think Santos clearly should take it to the matt and dominate her,
21:02
I need a lot more teams if I'm playing Agapova twenty teams unless I can't
21:07
get there. If she wins, though probably gonna be a unique winner or
21:11
very few dupes because the leverage it gives. But there's enough. There's enough
21:15
like closely ownership fights on this card, enough closely line fights, enough combinations
21:21
on a twelve fighter that I think you can play better teams without like Darius
21:26
Flowers, without Agapova and still have unique lineups in them because it is a
21:30
pretty good slate in terms of that, So no Agapova. I like Santos
21:34
a lot, but I am scared round one. I was surprised to see
21:37
plus twelve hundred for Agapova round one, Like I think that's almost all of
21:41
her win equity is early blitzing and getting a big shot there. But I
21:45
definitely will be hoping that does not happen. Keep it going. Next fight,
21:51
Montal Jackson Damian black Chear eighty six hundred for Jackson sixties or seventy six
21:57
hundred for black Chear. This fight is minus one fifty five on the Jackson
22:02
side, plus one thirty five on the Black Cheer side, plus one fifty
22:06
five for this fight to finish both guys, plus three twenty five inside the
22:11
distance. I'll throw it to you on this big Marley. We'll have one
22:15
of the most popular dogs in Black Chear, one of the lowest own favorites
22:18
in Jackson. But this line opened minus one fifteen for the fight to finish
22:23
and is now plus one fifty five, which is not something you love to
22:26
see as a backer of this fight. Does that do anything for you in
22:30
this one? And on what side do you like more? Yeah? I
22:33
mean, I actually I like the Jackson side of this fight, but not
22:37
really if it's gonna go the distance. I like him because I think he's
22:41
live for a knockout black Year. He's gonna have the grappling edge for sure,
22:48
and Jackson's issue is that he can get taken down and spend a little
22:53
bit too much time on his back. But that's like against good wrestlers,
22:57
and I don't know that Black Year is a good wrestler. I think he's
23:00
a better grappler than he is a wrestler, and we've seen him gas out
23:04
in the past. Now he's taken this fight on short notice at elevation,
23:10
and if he's gonna wrestle or attempt to wrestle aggressively, I think he's gonna
23:14
slow down as the fight moves along. If he doesn't slow down, or
23:18
if he is just able to get an early submission, he probably breaks the
23:21
slate. But I think the field's gonna be onto it already where he's high
23:25
enough owned where I'm just gonna kind of I might half the field on Black
23:30
Share, to be honest with you, just look to other underdogs instead,
23:32
because I think Jackson is the better wrestler of the two. I think he
23:37
could be okay in top control if he wants to go out there and get
23:40
a couple of takedowns. But I think he has a really big striking edge
23:42
in this fight, and maybe even more the longer the fight goes. I
23:47
think he's live to get a knock out in any round. Probably need it
23:51
to be first round or second round, especially if he's going to be spending
23:52
time on his back. But at lower ownership, I'm I'm definitely gonna be
23:57
overweight. On the Jackson side, I think you can knock come out in
24:00
the first round. I'm a big Jackson believer. I like this guy's striking
24:03
a lot, and black Year like he looks really good against guys that he
24:07
should look good against. But I don't know that he's gonna look really good
24:10
against a guy like Montel Jackson. So give me the favorite in this one.
24:12
He is my overweight play and I will be underweight to a chucky underdog
24:15
in this one. Yeah, definitely makes sense. I'm keeping Monta in my
24:21
pool and chalk your lineups. But again, it I think I can.
24:23
I don't love them because I think this fight goes a decision I think it's
24:26
relatively close. If that's the case, it's a lot harder for Jackson to
24:30
get to the optimal And again, the line movement pretty big. Line movement
24:34
on the inside the distance prop a lot more than usual plus one sixty five.
24:37
Jackson open up inside the distance now plus three twenty five, whereas Black
24:42
Cheer went from plus three sixty five to plus three twenty five. That one
24:47
k difference is just so much on this late And again, I do think
24:51
it's a good twelve fight card. There's you can there's a lot of different
24:55
combinations. As you're able to leave money on the table. You don't need
24:57
to go absolutely crazy. If it was an eleven fight card, my process,
25:02
i'd be talking. I'd have more Jackson probably than Black Year because you
25:06
have to get crazier feel a little better. On the twelve fight card,
25:10
I'll play Black Cheer in lineups that I have lower own pieces. I think
25:12
there's anough he'll probably be what we have twenty seven percent. That looks really
25:17
good to me. I'm find eating chalk Dog twenty seven percent, which is
25:21
chalky in some lineups because you can mix match, leave salary, build a
25:26
Montel Jackson lineup, take Jackson out, go Black Chear for one k less,
25:30
you're getting a plus one thirty dog taking off maybe thirty dupes. That's
25:33
something I'd be fine with doing as well. But at the end of the
25:37
day, I think this fight goes a decision. I think it's close,
25:41
and then it probably doesn't get there. Like winner probably scores eighty. Maybe
25:44
that's enough for Black Year. I doubt it is for Montel, But both
25:47
guys average over two takedowns per fifteen minutes, so there is possible takedowns,
25:52
reversals, top control in play in this one as well, and an elevation.
25:56
There's even more variance that goes into this because you might think they have
26:00
good cardio. One side absolutely dies completely gases out. Then you have three
26:04
points on the other side before a finish. So prefer Black Cheer side here
26:08
he will be higher own though Big Marley likes the lower own side. In
26:12
Montelle, Jackson on UH and Black Cheer's first fight against the Low. One
26:18
of my favorite moments was DC in I think the second round he's like,
26:22
wow, man, look out fresh, this guy looks and the last seconds
26:25
later he's like, oh no, he's gassed. He was gas gas in
26:27
that fight for sure. That was also a short notice fight. What ten
26:32
eight and then yeah he got ten aided in the third, So yeah,
26:34
he definitely could gas and if so, Montella's big upside at low ownership for
26:38
sure, keep it going. Next fight, another mid tier fight, Fatima
26:45
Klein making her UFC debut taking on Jazz and Jazz Divicius client coming in on
26:49
short notice. It's a double champ over here at Cage Fury. Yeah,
26:55
Cage Fury, double Champ. A lot of hype on this twenty three year
26:59
old was the favorite for a little while, and that's why she's priced at
27:02
eighty four hundred taking on Jasmine Jazz Duvicius UFC vet here. It's been pretty
27:07
good as of late as well. Eighty four hundred Cline seventy eight hundred Jasmine.
27:11
But you go look at the odds right now, Jasmine the six hundred
27:14
for cheaper is minus one twenty six cliin plus one zh six. This fight's
27:19
the most likely to go the distance on the card at plus two fifty Climb
27:23
the slight dog better inside the distance prop at plus four hundred, Jasmine at
27:27
plus five twenty five. So much going on in this one, Big Marley
27:33
open the fit or Cliin. Actually, I want to say open, like
27:36
minus Jasmin open the favorite minus two fifty immediately Clin got money. Was the
27:41
favorites for quite a bit of time until this week when the lines kind of
27:45
bounced back and forth. Like, I just can't really get too much Clin.
27:49
I'd rather play Montel Jackson for the same like, I think there's more
27:52
upside there. Climb at eighty four hundred is a slight dog. I just
27:56
don't see a hundred plus in the ram of possibilities. Too often she will
28:00
be low owned some leverage off of Jasmine. I still don't love it.
28:03
Jasmine eighty seven, Jasmine at seventy eight hundred. It's more of a question
28:07
though both these girls can wrestle. I think Jasmine will prefer wrestling, But
28:12
yeah, how do you see this going? Like on the feet, who
28:15
gets the advantage? Do you think Jasmine feels fine when she's on top?
28:18
Obviously she doesn't want to be on bottom. Is there enough upside in this
28:22
fight compared to these others in the mid tier? A lot to break down?
28:26
How do you see the line movement as well? I like this fight
28:29
a lot, just because I expect it to mainly take place on the ground.
28:33
I give Klein the overall striking edge, So if Jasmine is unable to
28:37
get takedowns and Klin wants to keep it standing, I think she could win
28:40
there and probably wouldn't score very well, but both of them are good on
28:44
the ground. I actually don't even know if I saw Klein fail any takedown
28:47
attempts on the regional scene. It look like she every single one she went
28:49
for she ended up getting, whether it's a double leg or she's power slamming
28:53
them to the ground. I was just really impressed with Klein, but it
28:56
is against much lower level competition. Then Jazz Udavicious is faced, so we
29:02
don't know how she's gonna look on short notice up aweight class at elevation against
29:06
a proven fighter. But I think for Jasmine to win this fight, she
29:10
has to get take down, she has to spend time in top control,
29:12
and if she wins, I expect her to score more than ten X.
29:17
But on the client side, I think she just has more ways to win.
29:18
I think she's probably the more dangerous grappler of the two. Maybe she's
29:22
even the better wrestler. I'm not sure, and I do think she's the
29:26
better striker, so I'm on the client side of this one. I do
29:29
want client exposure, especially now that I think ownership is gonna be less than
29:33
it would have been four days ago or something like that. And I think
29:37
she could choke you Jasmine out early. I think she could get a ground
29:41
of pound TKO. And I think she could wrestle enough to score well in
29:45
a decision too, so I'll be I might be overweight to both of them.
29:48
I just like this fight a lot. I don't think there's gonna be
29:52
a ton of striking in this one, mainly because if Jasmine's losing the striking,
29:56
I expect her to go for takedowns, and if she doesn't get it,
29:59
maybe Klein goes for the takedown gets it herself. But I think we're
30:03
gonna get a pretty decent score in this fight, unless it's so back and
30:06
forth that it's like a seventy five point win from the winner because the judges
30:11
don't even know who it is type deal. But I like this one,
30:14
and I think Kleine is the real deal man. She she looks solid,
30:17
so I'm I'm gonna side with her. And she should be lower owned at
30:21
this point as well, So fun one to target. Give me Klein.
30:25
Yeah, you're that might have convinced me. You did a good job.
30:27
You convinced me to like Clin more than Montel Jackson because I already didn't love
30:32
Jackson anyway. Both of them is underweights. But yeah, my thought was
30:36
just like, because I think Klein's the better striker, Like, why take
30:40
her down? If, like, because we've seen Jasmine get reversals, end
30:42
up on top, we know she's a good wrestler. Maybe like, if
30:47
Jasmine and her like tip the same striker, let's just say they're both get
30:52
landing some shots, eating some shots, nothing's happening, then maybe Klein wrestles
30:56
too. But again, I you're more you're confident that line could definitely spend
31:00
time on top multiple takedowns, And if that's the case, it's hard to
31:03
fade a low owned fighter who has that kind of upside and the better inside
31:07
the distance props. So yeah, I think I'm I would say she had
31:11
the striking edge in all of her regional scene fights as well, but she
31:14
went for takedowns and all of those fights, and where she looked best was
31:18
when she got those takedowns. She's really good in top control, so I
31:22
was just really impressed with what I saw from Kline. I hadn't really heard
31:25
of her before she opened at like plus two ten, and then I saw
31:30
all of Twitter jump on her and I was like, whoa man, this
31:32
girl must be something, so let me check her out. And I was
31:34
like, okay, okay, I can buy it. I like this girl,
31:37
but I missed out on the line, so I have no bet on
31:38
her. I'm not confident enough at even money when I already missed out on
31:42
the good line. But I do slightly favorite climb in this one, so
31:45
she's my preferred play at lower ownership. Yeah, definitely lower ownership for sure.
31:49
The dog at eighty four hundred. There you go. If you Montel
31:53
Jackson, you get some climb. Those are ways to get different where you
31:56
don't have to play Agapope, we don't have to play flowers. You can
32:00
leave zero dollars on the table and there will be some unique lineups and this
32:04
one big Marley like some of those sides, and you definitely talked me into
32:07
some more client than I initially was going to get. Let's keep it rolling
32:12
to another one of the fights the most likely to go the distance on the
32:15
card. Two primary strikers Joshua Van Charles Johnson. Minus two fifty is Van.
32:20
Plus two to ten is Charles Johnson. This fight's plus two to fifteen
32:23
to finish. Van plus three fifty Charles Johnson plus four to seventy five.
32:30
So I'm not gonna play Charles Johnson in twenty teams or less. I just
32:34
think the upside frims like eighty points. I see this fight playing out on
32:37
the feet. I think Van's the better striker. Van throws more volume.
32:42
Yeah, I just it feels like a really tough fight for Charles Johnson in
32:45
this one. I think his ceiling is probably eighty eighty five points. Of
32:49
course, it's mma, random stuff can happen, but I'm not getting to
32:52
Johnson. Van's interesting because you look at the inside of the distance PROP not
32:58
good at plus three seventy five. You look at his takedowns one takedown on
33:05
average. I don't expect them to wrestle too much, but man, this
33:07
dude throws volume for days, over nine significant strikes per minute. Only twenty
33:13
two years old, he put up one hundred and thirty piece one hundred and
33:15
thirty five piece last fight in a second round KO and one hundred sixty or
33:21
one hundred and six excuse me, one hundred sixty, one hundred and six
33:23
way different. One hundred and six points in a second fight, which was
33:28
a decision when one hundred and fifty six significant strikes he put up one hundred
33:31
and six DK points. You can sign me up. I'll be playing someone
33:36
that can put up one hundred and six DK points without landing more than one
33:39
takedown just because of volumes. So Van plenty of volume upside in this one.
33:45
It's at elevation. Both guys have solid cardio, but always a late
33:50
third round finishes in play for Van, and if he ever gets those,
33:52
it's gonna be big boy upside. So eighty seven hundred ownership and check.
33:58
I'm in. I like Van. I think he wins late finished decision,
34:01
probably a decision, but yeah, I'm on Van side. I'm gonna play
34:06
some in DFS. Yeah, I pretty much agree. I think Johnson's a
34:09
decent fade. If he does win, it's probably a split decision where he's
34:14
right around ten X. I don't think ten X is gonna cut it on
34:16
this card, so I'm okay fading Johnson and then Van. I like Van
34:22
as well. I think he's the better boxer. I think he's the higher
34:24
volume striker. I think he's less likely to slow down in this fight,
34:29
But I don't know if we're gonna get that same volume at elevation. I
34:31
mean, that's tough to throw that much volume, you know, five thousand
34:35
feet above sea level. So I would expect a little bit less just from
34:39
both sides when they're both typically high volume strikers, and at eighty seven hundred
34:44
dollars, especially if he's not looking for takedowns, we need that high volume
34:47
in this one. So I'll get a little bit on the Van side just
34:51
because I don't think he'll be too owned. But I would rather just get
34:54
away from this fight and look to other fights more. And I think Van
34:58
probably wins and scores around eighty five or so. Eighty five probably wouldn't cut
35:02
it, so I'll look to other spots. You like Montel more than Van
35:07
at lower ownership, I do, yeah, because I think he's getting a
35:10
knockout. If you told me they're both winning a decision, I think Van
35:13
scores more. You only have one percent different. You still like you still
35:17
like Jackson? Yeah, yeah, just because I'm picking him to get the
35:22
knockout for sure. Yeah, he gets a knock out. That makes sense.
35:24
I prefer Van slightly, but yeah, if the codes of the decision,
35:29
Van has a chance. It'd be hard to see Montel with the chance.
35:31
But Montel actually I would say a lot decent bit more likely, but
35:37
for a finish. But it is only plus three seventy five versus plus three
35:39
twenty five, so we differ a little bit there. But I wouldn't be
35:44
surprised to see Van five percent higher on than Montel. I do think he
35:46
gets overlooked a bit, especially because people want to go to the black shier
35:51
side as well. Keep it rolling. Most likely fight to finish on the
35:54
card of Duel Razak a Lassan taking on Cody Brundage minus one seventy for Alison
36:00
plus one forty five for Cody Brundage minus four fifty for this fight to finish
36:06
alis on minus one forty Cody Brundage plus two twenty five round one props in
36:12
this one Alison plus one eighty Cody Brundage plus five point fifty. I mean
36:19
man we have. We're talking about elevation with two guys that are not known
36:23
to go very long in fights. I want to say Alison is the cardio
36:27
advantage in this one, and that is a pure guess, and it's mainly
36:30
because, Hey, we never see Cody Bruntage go late and elis on again
36:35
the Buckley fight, while they both were completely gassed, he went all fifteen
36:38
minutes, and I don't think Brundage would have made it all fifteen minutes in
36:42
that one. More than likely, though, if these guys do start to
36:45
fatigue, someone probably takes the way out. I think Alison knocks Brundage out
36:51
at some point. I'm worried about the chin on Brundage, but I will
36:54
say, man, he has popped in his hands too. I think it's
36:59
discredit like Brundage can wrestle. People know that is guillotine, et cetera.
37:04
He's got more one shot pop though than I think people give him for.
37:07
But if he's playing kickboxing match here, Alison's a dangerous, dangerous dude.
37:12
But it comes down to ownership, Big Marley. I'm not gonna say the
37:15
ownership we have in this one, but I'm a little concerned Alison is taking
37:20
money throughout the week. It was just minus one forty five two days ago,
37:22
now minus one seven. He's minus onony forty to finish. Like people
37:28
like, people don't like playing Cody Brundage. You quit against Melcoon. It
37:31
could get to a point where it's like a thirty five percent or ten percent
37:35
difference or something in this one. And if that's the case, the cheaper
37:38
fighter easier to leave money on the table just as much. Upside. I
37:44
don't know. I want picking Alison, but it might come back to the
37:46
game theory. Why just close my eyes? I hate it and I just
37:50
go more Cody because I think that's the right game theory play. How do
37:52
you see this fight though? What are your thoughts on that? Yeah,
37:57
I haven't been the nicest to Brundage in the past year or so, but
38:01
he's actually my preferred play in this one. I do think al Hassan has
38:06
the higher ceiling because of his first round knockout potential, and he has three
38:10
quick win bonuses under the first minute where he's getting the knockout, and I
38:15
think he is live for a slate breaking thirty second knockout in this one,
38:20
But if Alison does not get the first round knockout at eighty five hundred dollars,
38:25
like he has to get it in the second round for him to even
38:28
make the optimal lineup. If he's not getting a first or second round knockout,
38:30
I don't even care if he wins a decision. I don't think he's
38:32
gonna cut it, and I do think Brundage is gonna be the better wrestler
38:37
in this one. You mentioned he has knockout power too. His hands look
38:39
good against the Brazilian jiu jitsu guy Vieira until he was an idiot and pulled
38:45
a guillotine against one of the better grapplers. But I think in this one
38:50
you could pull a guillotine on al Haissan and be okay. And I also
38:52
think that Brundige could land takedowns and spend as much time as he wants to
38:57
in top control, especially if Alissan's to slow down. I kind of favor
39:00
Brundage to have the cardio edge in this one. I think he lives in
39:05
Denver. He's a hometown guy in this one. Maybe Alisan does as well,
39:08
but I just don't think he's lived there as long, but yeah,
39:12
I think after round one it's brundage from round two and round three, And
39:15
I also think Brundage can make the optimal lineup in the decision where I just
39:21
don't see that being the case for al Hassan, So I'm actually picking brundage
39:24
in this one. I don't know if I've ever picked this guy before,
39:27
but this is the first time, and I've always been a big Alhissan fan,
39:30
but I'll just have a ton of this fight. This is my favorite
39:34
fight on the card. I think to target, I want it, and
39:37
I'd say at least three fourths of my total lineups, and maybe I'll be
39:40
even higher on Alison. I'm not sure what I'll do. I'll mostly be
39:43
building off the shipdemizer this week, So if it gives me forty percent Alissan
39:49
thirty five percent Brundage, I'd be okay with that. But I'd also be
39:52
okay with like forty five percent Brundage twenty percent al Hassan. So I have
39:57
a big range where I'd be okay with in this fight. But give him
40:00
brundage to survive the early storm and then wrestle his way to a decision win.
40:06
So you think he like he can keep that cardio wrestling for fifteen minutes.
40:09
I don't think he's like, you know, keeps Matt returning this guy,
40:13
but I think he can land a takedown and spend four minutes in toime
40:16
An just has nothing to get up and just lays there. And yeah,
40:21
yeah, yeah, And I again, I was leaning Bruntage more game theory
40:24
side, especially because I've been on the Chalk Donkey size the stone and our
40:29
guy, like Djens has like to say, like the Black Sheer fight and
40:31
stuff, I need to get on the different side in some fights. Yeah,
40:36
and again, like our ownership right now, I wouldn't be surprised if
40:39
this fight got a little more ownership combined ownership and haw Hassan was a little
40:44
wider as well, especially if this line keeps moving. People don't like playing
40:49
Cody Brunness. You're certain guys people love to click. There's certain guys people
40:52
hate to click, and Bruntage is one of those guys. So yeah,
40:54
we're both rolling. Rolling. Bruntage is the game theory play. I like
40:59
it, But again I'm I'm just like you, like if I have fifty
41:01
percent on Hassan. I love my teams and fifteen percent brundage. I'm totally
41:06
good. If it was fifty brundage fifteen Alison, maybe I would go like
41:09
forty five twenty and I try and scale back a bit, but I'm definitely
41:14
fine having a lot more bruontage than Alison either. I just know I want
41:16
some of both of them, and I want a good bit of this fight.
41:21
What's going on, Joanne, appreciate that. Good afternoon to you.
41:23
Hope you have a great weekend, and good luck to you this week as
41:27
well. Always see you in here. We appreciate it. Everyone out here
41:30
about fifty watching, do us a favor hit that like Bun for us helps
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watching on playback Friday night Saturday morning, like Bun still helps. Hope
41:43
everybody out there doing well. Drop a comic, Give me your favorite dog
41:46
of the week for DraftKings this week in the comments section. And of course
41:52
it just came out what an hour and a half ago tambo Hoop on the
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42:35
industry. Pay less for content, playing more in your contest to hopefully make
42:39
you more cheese and have more of that in your pockets. Doesn't Ali Sound
42:44
train elevation, Yeah, I think he does. That's what Big Marley was
42:46
saying as well. But Brundage has been doing it for you said he grew
42:51
up there. He's been doing it for years and years. Even though it
42:52
really doesn't show in his fights so much. It also doesn't really show an
42:55
Ali Sound's fight either. So yeah, to Cortes, your underdog pick,
43:00
we'll get there. Interesting. Jerome definitely gonna be one of the more popular
43:06
underdogs on this card. Next fight Christian Rodriguez JUICYJ. Julian Arosa minus two
43:13
forty minus two thirty five is Rodriguez plus two hundred is Arosa. This fight
43:17
is plus one hundred to finish Christian Rodriguez plus one fifty Juicy J plus excuse
43:24
me five twenty five. This is an interesting one because ownership is in check
43:30
because you look at Christian Rodriguez solid inside the disiness profit plus one fifty,
43:35
but you compare him to Rose for one hundred more. I think he'll be
43:38
more She'll be more popular. I think Santos will be more popular. I
43:42
think bomb theme will be more popular. Still, Rodriguez gonna get some ownership,
43:46
but not the highest in the upper tier. Juicy J. I think
43:51
Erosa or Tracy Cortez for a one hundred less is gonna be way more popular.
43:54
Last year is going to be more popular, Brundage is going to be
43:57
more popular. And this is gonna high pace fight. I like Juliana Rosa
44:01
fights. He brings it, pushes the pace. He has no chin,
44:05
so either is lying on his back dead or he's pushing the pace, scoring
44:09
a lot of points and forcing his opponents to do something. I like this
44:13
fight. It's tough for me. It's like, man, do I keep
44:16
riding the highth train and Christian Rodriguez when the line feels a little wide right
44:21
now? Or Juicy J the vet. If he doesn't get knocked out,
44:24
he's game. He's gonna be there for all fifteen minutes. Lion feels a
44:29
little wide. Looking at ownership right now makes me want to go Juicy J
44:32
side even more. Yeah, I probably will have to be more overweight to
44:37
Rosa in this fight than Rodriguez, but both sides have passed to be on
44:40
the optimal. Yeah. I kind of like Arosa in this one. Guy
44:47
has no chin. He's been knocked out eight times, including his Ultimate Fighter
44:52
exhibition match, so that's that's not good at all. But Rodrigue is not
44:58
really a power puncher, and if if you're not knocking out Erosa, then
45:02
he can hang around me. He's probably the better grappler. I mean,
45:06
he should be the better grappler in this one. And he's also a high
45:08
volume striker where I could see him just winning a three round striking match just
45:12
on volume alone. On the Rodriguez side, he's got four UFC wins.
45:20
He's averaging eight just under eighty one points in those wins. At his price,
45:25
that's not great Erosa seventy three hundred he has I believe, seven UFC
45:31
wins. He's averaging just over one hundred and three in those wins. So
45:36
he's our slave breaker most likely in this one. So my preferred play is
45:39
for Erosa just to survive, have his chin hold up, and I think
45:44
he can win this fight, and if he wins, I expect him to
45:45
score more than ten x, Whereas if Rodriguez wins, I don't even know
45:51
that he's gonna hit ten x in this one, especially if he's not looking
45:53
to grapple much. So give me Erosa as one of my favorite underdog plays
45:58
on the card. I also like that his ownership should stay low as well.
46:01
Uh. And then Rodriguez, I almost feel like he's got to get
46:07
a knockout in this one at his price, because if you're you could definitely
46:09
fight at a high pace against a Rosa and score well, but at elevation,
46:14
Like, how high of a price is he gonna I mean, how
46:16
high of a score is he really gonna be scoring when he has already been
46:22
overweight in like two of his fights. He's fighting up a weight class here
46:23
again, so I just don't trust him against a higher volume striker, a
46:28
better grappler, and a bigger guy in Arosa. So I think the line
46:30
is a little bit off as well, and I'll take the underductor. Yeah,
46:34
it all makes sense. The one pullback at a little and mine,
46:37
lik if Rodriguez a little more than you is just the opponents that he's gone
46:42
against. Roller Rosas Junior just wanted to get to the mat. He took
46:45
his back for like four minutes in the first round, couldn't score any points.
46:49
Next fight Cameron Simon, I mean, a solid fighter, back and
46:52
forth a little bit, but he negated some Again, he had, I
46:55
guess some wrestling presidence in that one. He had to be worried about Dougary
47:00
and you knew he was gonna come out wrestle from the get go, harder
47:02
to score points against guys like that. He's not. I don't think he's
47:07
gonna be worried as much about the takedowns coming from a Rosa. I think
47:09
it mainly plays out on the feet. Whoa, I don't know what that's
47:13
trying to tell me. Thumbs up, and I was talking. That mean,
47:15
But does that mean Rodriguez thumbs up Putton? Does that mean Rodriguez is
47:19
good, the Erosa is good? That might means something. I haven't seen
47:23
that either. Yeah, So yeah, on that note, Rodriguez, Yeah,
47:29
he's not fighting something that I think is gonna change takedowns where it's easier
47:31
to score against someone that's not shooting for takedowns twenty four to seven and you're
47:36
not worried about as much and you can let your hands go more. So
47:38
I think Rodriguez probably has more pop than he's shown so far. And yeah,
47:44
I guess how much pop do you need to put away in Rosa?
47:46
So I like Rodriguez a little more than you, but at ownership that we
47:50
have, I like Erosa for the discount sixteen hundred. You need to pick
47:53
dogs. I guess I'll tip my hand a little bit. I'll be underweight
47:58
on Tracy Cortes, so easy pivot right there in that range and big time
48:01
upside in a win. So yeah, I like this fight, but I
48:06
think a Rosa I'll probably be more overweight to keep it going. We got
48:09
three fights left on the card, four fights left. Excuse me, Gabriel
48:15
bomb theme on LUSA minus three fifty Bomb theme plus two to eighty five is
48:20
LUSA. This fight's minus two ten to finish bomb theme minus one seventy five
48:24
LUSA plus seven fifty inside the distance, and then we have bomb theme plus
48:30
one seventy five in round one. So if the Delby fight didn't happen against
48:37
bomb theme, and the LUSA fight didn't happen against Battle, a lot of
48:40
ifs. If that both went didn't happen, you probably wouldn't be getting this
48:45
booking. But if we somehow did, I think bomb fim would be like
48:47
minus six hundred bomb theme, very very highly touted. Coming off his first
48:52
loss dominated Delby in round one, Alby does what Alby does Cardio for days,
48:59
making a dog dog fight, bomb fiend gassed. They'll be finished with
49:02
them the second as LUSA never been finished. They like you walk into a
49:07
bar. You see one LUSA, you think he's undefeated, never gonna lose,
49:09
grown ass man, solid volume, solid wrestling, good durability. But
49:15
man, last fight, he was getting his ass kicked against Battle. Literally
49:19
had absolutely nothing for him. I poke, took the easy way out,
49:22
took the way I would have taken out. He had nothing for a battle.
49:25
He was gonna get finished. But man, not fun betting on someone
49:30
that quit just got his ass beat. Now, I don't know. Bomb
49:34
Fieme is just as dangerous as battle. His ceiling is higher, people like
49:37
him more. It feels like bomb Fiam should be round one. But again,
49:40
I'm probably saying a million things right now. I hope you're following.
49:45
Does Bombfiam come out with the same game plan like he just gassed, he's
49:47
fighting at elevation? Is this corner like, yo, let's be control,
49:52
Let's hold back a little bit, pick your shots, don't try and kill
49:55
him in round one. If that's the case, maybe that doesn't score enough
50:00
LUSA. I mean people were swearing them off in discord, like I'm never
50:04
playing this bum again. Blah blah blah. His ownership's gonna be really low.
50:07
I don't know why this like bunk keeps going. He's gonna be really
50:10
low on Bomb Theme's gonna get ownership so you get leverage, et cetera.
50:15
I'm gonna play some LUSA. I'm not playing Agapa, I'm not playing Flowers.
50:19
Playing some LUSA get the leverage playing some bomb theme as well. But
50:23
I said a million things, and you can tell him a little torn on
50:25
this fight, so help me out. Yeah, no, I'm in the
50:30
same boat, man. I don't know about Bondfeme. I just think in
50:34
round one he's gonna have a big edge. I think he is dangerous in
50:37
round one, whether it be on the feet or the ground. Lousa has
50:39
never been finished, but I could see Bonfme knocking him out. I could
50:43
see bomb Themes submitting them, especially in round one, maybe even the first
50:46
you know, two minutes of round two as well. But he gets out
50:52
pretty quick. I mean after like eight minutes in that last fight, and
50:55
then he was finished shortly afterwards. Now we're at elevation against a guy who
51:00
has never been finished, who can go all three rounds, and he's actually
51:05
scored loose. So this is has scored one hundred and twenty four and one
51:07
hundred and fifteen in decisions. Like that's my type of guy. And if
51:12
he wins this fight at all, he's gonna score more than sixty nine hundred.
51:15
But he has one hundred plus potential even in the decision, because I
51:19
would expect Bonfeme to slow down after the first seven and a half minutes of
51:22
this fight. But if this fight's gonna end in the first five minutes,
51:28
it's got to be bonfme and he could break the slate with one hundred and
51:30
ten hundred and twenty points or so. So I am gonna have a lot
51:35
of bond theme, but so is the field. So I don't know that
51:37
I'm gonna be too overweight to him. I'll probably be around fifty percent or
51:40
so, but I will for sure be overweight to Lusa because I don't think
51:45
the field will be on him as much, and he could absolutely break the
51:47
slate if he can make it out of that first round, He's probably gonna
51:51
be damn near a favorite even if he loses the first round going into that
51:54
second. So I'll probably double the field on Lusa, maybe put me around
52:00
thirty on him, fifty on Bondfime. This is one I want to target
52:02
heavily, but it's just that we don't know what to expect on the on
52:06
the bottom theme side at elevation. I just know he's one of my favorite
52:10
five minute fighters in the all of UFC. Like, this guy is fun
52:14
to watch. He's throwing bombs, he's aggressive, and he's got a meany
52:17
eighteen as well, So I just think he's got a good chance. They
52:21
finished in the fight early, being the first person to finish LUSA. But
52:25
be prepared to live bet this one. If Bonfeme is minus six hundred going
52:29
into round two. I think everybody's been touting that all week, but it's
52:32
definitely an angle you got to look at because Lisa can go off fifteen at
52:37
a decent pace. Maybe it'll slow down a bit, but he'll be there,
52:39
whereas Bonfeme will quit. We got we got a few quitters on this
52:43
card. We got bomb theme, we got LUSA, we got brandage man.
52:45
Somebody's gonna be quitting on this card and we'll see who it is.
52:49
Yeah, what are your thoughts on? Like Terrence McKinney and spelled bomb theme
52:52
fight the other bomb theme brother comes to mind where that was one fight McKenny
52:58
completely changed. I don't know if it was after the over fight, but
53:00
he didn't go all out and on one his coach was like try and be
53:05
maintained or whatever, and after the fight mckenny's like, yeah, never again,
53:07
Like I just can't fight like that. What are your thoughts on?
53:10
Maybe bomb theime going to the light kick just like taking it easy. I
53:15
mean, he wrestled in that fight, he had top control, like it
53:17
wasn't even exerting that that much energy. Just he just gassed and so Dalby
53:23
does. But do you think we get a more reserved Bond team by any
53:27
chance? I mean we could. I never really know, because I think
53:30
the best thing about Bonfime is his aggressiveness. So I would want to see
53:34
the same guy. And I mean, if you gassed it, then you
53:37
guess you're gonna lose the fight. But he could dominate round one. He
53:42
could ten eight round one and then also win the second round. He was
53:45
winning the first half of the second round against Dolby, and if he can
53:49
make it out of that second round, just don't get finished in the third.
53:52
I think he can win a decision here. It's just how much is
53:55
he really gonna slow down at elevation? I just have no idea. So
53:59
I would want to see him go for the kill. Let's change your fight
54:02
in the next one. But he's young enough where he could just work on
54:05
his cardio, his whole camp and hopefully he'll be better than he was last
54:08
time out if it does get extended. But just the way he fights is
54:14
gonna tire him out. Even if he has been working on nothing but Cardio,
54:16
just that aggressiveness, it's gonna tire him out. So I don't know,
54:20
man, I have no idea what to expect from this guy. But
54:22
I think he's gonna get a finish in the first I think his the first
54:24
one to finish LUSA, so I'll be heavy on him. Yeah, I
54:28
think he gets a finish too. He's just so much more skilled. I
54:30
think I got him by sub whether he gets his own takedown, he knocks
54:34
him down and follows him to the mat somehow, but I think that's the
54:37
biggest advantage on the map. What's up, Big Driggs. Appreciate you hanging
54:40
out, watching out playback. Hope you're doing well. Three fights left.
54:45
This is the closest priced and yeah, I guess almost line fight with next
54:51
to from Petrowski Drew Dober taking on Gen Silva Dover minus one oh four Jean
54:57
Silva minus one sixteen minus three hundred for this fight to finish, Silva plus
55:01
one ten inside the distance Drew do Dover plus one ad So another one where
55:07
we had the slight slightly higher priced fighter in Dover as the dog as very
55:13
slight dog gen Silva. Many of you probably are like Gene Silva. Why
55:16
does that sound familiar? Yeah, just last card USC three to zero three.
55:21
That's the Gene Silva who likes walking around with his hands down, licking
55:24
his lips when he gets popped. Very fun to watch, fun fighter.
55:29
Dude has absolute insane power man. Charles Jordaine felt his power probably two minutes
55:35
into that fight, and it was on his skates ever since then. And
55:38
Charles Jordain never been knocked out like it was clear as day when Silva hit
55:43
him, he felt it. When Jordaine hit Silva, he didn't feel it.
55:46
Now Dover he hits I would say harder than Charles Jordaine. I would
55:51
say harder one shot power. He's more technical, probably he's more compact Jordain.
55:57
Longer strikes come from different as good light kick from Dover, mean left
56:01
hand from Dover used to be known for a really good chin and I still
56:06
you could say that, but for Vola cold cock to him, and we've
56:09
seen him hurt multiple times. McKinney hurt him early as well. This is
56:14
another one where I want to go game theory. If I knew Silva would
56:17
be five percent on higher, ten percent on higher. I'd be on the
56:21
Dover side. Are people going to play the level to the level game and
56:24
the ownership comes in about even? Because if it's about even, I know
56:29
it's a step up in competition for Dover. But I'm picking Gene Silva because
56:32
I think eventually he's going to touch the chin and his power is legit.
56:37
His chin looks good again. This is another one one forty five. He
56:40
fought out two weeks ago. This is at one fifty five, so I'm
56:44
not worried about that weight cut nearly as much he just fought, which,
56:47
to be honest, I actually liked for him. He didn't take that much
56:51
damage. He just got a real life fight, not just sparring matches,
56:54
et cetera. Mean power. I think he touches the chin at some point,
56:59
but it comes down to ownership. Here play an ownership game. He's
57:02
cheaper as the favorite with the hype coming behind him. I guess what do
57:07
you think that gets to ownership? And what side do you like more?
57:10
Yeah, this is the fight. I really just have no idea on I
57:14
want to target it a decent amount, but I don't have a real lean
57:16
on who's gonna win this fight. I wanted to see Silva look good against
57:22
Jordaane before I really started backing this guy, and he did that, and
57:25
then some like he looks amazing, and then but now he's jumping up a
57:30
weight class against a guy with a better chin, against a guy who should
57:37
be throwing more volume, and in Dover's fighting in his backyard too, So
57:40
I think Dover's gonna be fine with the elevation, whereas Silva fighting on short
57:45
notice up a weight class, maybe he's more likely to slow down. So
57:47
the way I see it is Silva is more likely to get the knockout,
57:52
more likely to get a first round slate breaker. But I would favor Dober
57:55
in a decision here, especially in his hometown. And Dober has I think
58:00
thirteen UFC wins. He's only scored less than this eighty less than ten x
58:06
that is of this eighty two hundred dollars price tag one time, and that
58:10
was eighty so it's right there, and most of his wins are one hundred
58:14
plus. He has huge power as well. He could knock out Silva in
58:16
the first round, So I don't know what to do with this one.
58:20
I just want to target heavily on both sides, probably get at least twenty
58:24
five percent, i'd say, of both of them, hopefully, and just
58:28
kind of let the ship to Miser do his thing. I'll want to start
58:30
with Dober and if I need the two hundred bucks, I have no problem
58:32
going down to Silva if that gets me up to you know, a bond
58:37
Feme or a Santos something like that. So that's how I plan on doing
58:40
it, especially with my handbuilds. Dober will be in the lineup, we'll
58:44
mess around with it, then we'll go Silva. If if I have to
58:46
get rid of both of them to like the rest of my lineup, then
58:49
I'm fine doing that. But I think we have a good chance of the
58:52
winner scoring well in this one. I just don't. I have no idea
58:53
how this one's going to play out, but I expect fireworks. So looking
58:57
forward to this one. This is my favorite fight on the Yeah, and
59:00
that's timing, Like if you just listen to what he just broke down.
59:04
That's why we recommend five teams, ten teams, twenty teams at lower dollar
59:09
instead of one team at that same dollar. Amount, because good luck picking
59:13
the winner in this fight. Like you get that wrong, well, by
59:16
then you more than likely already have something wrong a loss in there. But
59:20
they're just like, give me both of them, hope for the right combinations.
59:23
It only takes one team at MMA, that's all you care about one
59:27
team first. All the other bubbles to me on the left, you're just
59:30
playing the one team, so diversifying, etc. And I do think I'm
59:34
not making a rule, Big Marley's not making a rule in this fight because
59:37
I don't think either side goes for takedowns. If this fight gets to the
59:40
third round, or this fight goes the decision, it might just be eighty
59:45
in a decision win. I would love to like if I knew this fight
59:49
scored eighty, I would have zero at ownership. The mid tier is absolutely
59:52
loaded. Eighty's probably not enough, so two primary strikers both at power at
59:58
elevation to finish minus three hundred, But it's not an all in fight for
1:00:02
me, and I do prefer Brunnage El Hassan because I think they're more likely
1:00:07
to gas and we get a finish than this one, and more likely for
1:00:10
it to go on the mat a little bit, so that's how I see
1:00:14
it. But again, great fights a target will get ownership, and yeah,
1:00:16
if I have forty percent to over twenty silva or vice versa, and
1:00:21
like my script, I'd go with that as well. Two fights left,
1:00:24
big marley comain event. Not really sure why this is a comin event,
1:00:29
but hey it is Santiago Pons and Ibio Muslim Salakov minus one eighty for Santiago
1:00:35
plus one fifty five on the way back for Salakov, minus one fifty for
1:00:39
this fight to finish Ponds plus one forty five inside the distance Salakov plus two
1:00:45
eighty. So this is one big marley. That is like you go back
1:00:49
and forth. You look at the props and then you, I know ball,
1:00:52
whatever props say ownership. You look at our ownership. It's low owned,
1:00:57
both sides low owned, minus one fifty to finish, plus one forty
1:01:00
five inside of it since plus two to eighty all the stats, and that
1:01:04
look good to play this fight in terms of ownership as well. Then you
1:01:08
go to like the I know ball, I know fights whatever. Well,
1:01:12
this very well could be a low volume fight. Salakov is always low volume.
1:01:16
Pon's a little more high volume. Both guys over the hill, though,
1:01:20
if we don't get a knockout, I highly doubt it gets to the
1:01:22
optimal But man, at this ownership and expected to finish, I think I'm
1:01:28
gonna play be overweight on this fight. I won't love it. I can
1:01:30
play it in chalk of your teams, but Salakov is a dog. Any
1:01:35
ko can get there. Ponds has the volume advantage plus one eighty five inside
1:01:39
the distance, like again, props and all that. Compared to ownership,
1:01:44
it's too good to be true. I'm gonna play it, even though in
1:01:45
my brain it's like, man, this fight gets past the second round,
1:01:50
it's probably dust. What do you see? Yeah, it's one of my
1:01:53
least favorite fights to target, just because it's knockout or bust for both guys
1:01:58
to make the optimal lineup. Either one of them throw great volume. I
1:02:00
really don't expect more than one or two takedowns from either one of them,
1:02:05
and i'd take the under on both. I think we're gonna get no takedowns
1:02:08
on this one. There should be a striking match for as long as it
1:02:10
lasts, and I do think it's going to a decision. I would give
1:02:15
sally Kov the slight wrestling edge, the slight one punch power knockout edge,
1:02:21
But I think Ponsinibbio's are a better minute winner, and he's also plus one
1:02:25
forty five inside the distance. They're giving him a forty percent chance to finish
1:02:30
this fight, so he is my preferred play in this one. But I
1:02:32
would just rather target other favorites who have more ways to score well where if
1:02:37
I mean Ponzinibia hasn't put up a good score in seven years, Like,
1:02:40
I just don't trust this guy. They're both past their prime, closer to
1:02:45
being done, and I could see him both slowing down at elevation, and
1:02:49
if they both slow down after round one, I think they the knockout is
1:02:52
less likely. I think they'll both just kind of have a sparring match for
1:02:54
the next two rounds, collect their paychecks, and get out of there.
1:02:58
So I'll be in hand builds looking to avoid this fight. I'm okay with
1:03:02
the Ship de Miser. The Ship de Miser are giving me really either one,
1:03:07
but I would want to like, I would want to limit my sallykov
1:03:09
where I'd be fine getting up to maybe thirty percent or so Ponzinibio. That'd
1:03:15
be high. I would really prefer to get less than that. But if
1:03:16
I liked all my other exposures and they had thirty percent poons Andibio, I
1:03:20
would I would roll with it. So he's my preferred play. I think
1:03:22
he's gonna get the win. I just think he's gonna win and score seventy
1:03:28
points and it won't even matter. So yeah, you and I see the
1:03:30
same like when we do our tape. When we watch fights, you and
1:03:34
I think it's going the same way. Props disagree with us, though,
1:03:37
and we have Ponzinibbia as the lowest owned in the upper tier. Salakov gonna
1:03:40
be low owned in the bottom tier as well. So fight's supposed to finish,
1:03:45
I'm gonna be overweight, mainly because of the props, and I can
1:03:49
mix it and chalk your lineups. But yeah, if I got into my
1:03:52
head, I'm more on Big Marley side. This fight's not gonna be on
1:03:53
the optimal ownership will reflect that though. Main of that time, Big marleyro
1:04:00
is nom The unis taking on Tracy Courtes. Cortes steps in for Macy Barber
1:04:04
on short notice minus two twenty five for Rose plus one ninety Courtes. This
1:04:10
fight's plus two hundred to finish Rose plus two forty inside the distance Rose plus
1:04:15
or plus two forty rows plus eight hundred for Cortes. So we have this
1:04:20
fight at eighty percent combined ownership. I think that is over owned plus two
1:04:27
hundred for this fight to finish. So assume it goes a decision like it's
1:04:30
supposed to one of the most likely. Let's assume that minus two to twenty
1:04:34
five favorite wins and rows, she everges less than four significant strikes per minute,
1:04:40
less than one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Everybody remembers that
1:04:44
Carlos bar is a fight where Big Marley would have landed more strikes then both
1:04:46
of those girls in there. There is clear clear pass where Rose wins,
1:04:50
and it's a decision that she's not on the optimal courts. A little harder
1:04:55
to say that about. If Cortes wins over for significant strikes per minute,
1:05:00
it over to takedowns eighty five is a lot easier to get there at seventy
1:05:03
two hundred than nine k. So if you think Cortez wins, I would
1:05:06
play a decent a bit of Cortes. If you think Rose wins the decision
1:05:11
like I do. I'm gonna be underweight. I think Elder will out score
1:05:15
Bomb theme Santo's. We talked about Ponds for half the ownership. Big Money
1:05:19
likes Montel Jackson, there's Rodriguez. Give me these non twenty five minute fights,
1:05:25
but they're most of these fights are expected to finish within fifteen, so
1:05:29
the extra ten minutes doesn't really do much if they're not throwing a lot of
1:05:31
volume. I think Rose wins. I'm gonna play some, but I'm gonna
1:05:35
cap both fighters at lower than their projected ownership that we have them at,
1:05:40
so I know I'm gonna be underweight. I'm not full fading. I'm gonna
1:05:44
play both of some of them. But if I was just playing one team,
1:05:47
I'm not playing this fight like. I don't love this main event unless
1:05:51
you think Cortez wins. Cortez wrestles a lot, but if Cortez gets a
1:05:55
takedown, it's really hard to control Rose down there. She's using more cardio
1:06:00
on short notice. At elevation, Rose the future champ like Rose by decision.
1:06:04
That's where I keep getting to landing the bigger shots, not on the
1:06:08
optimal But yeah, I don't know if that's a hot take or what ownership
1:06:12
will be up there. I think it's over owned. Yeah, I agree,
1:06:15
I'm gonna be underweight to the fight as a whole. On the Cortes
1:06:19
side, I mean, her striking looked super improved in her last fight,
1:06:26
but I don't think it's improved enough to where she's gonna beat Rose on the
1:06:30
feet. I think Rose is gonna have the clear better striking edge, especially
1:06:32
over the course of five rounds. But she had the striking edge over Esparza,
1:06:39
and let's just say she wins that fight. She scored fifty points in
1:06:42
a win in a five round fight. I mean it's pathetic. And if
1:06:45
she is getting held down in the first two rounds, that was gonna take
1:06:48
away from her scoring. And if she wins three through five, this's not
1:06:51
gonna be enough, especially at ninety at nine thousand. So yeah, I'm
1:06:57
looking to get away from this fight. Rose is I preferred play because she
1:07:00
had a full training camp. She's fighting in her backyard. She's dangerous with
1:07:04
submissions. She could get takedowns herself, and I just think she's the better
1:07:08
striker who is more likely to throw more volume. But she has to score
1:07:12
well at nine K, and her ceiling might be right around one hundred points,
1:07:15
and that still might not get us there. Whereas Cortes, if she
1:07:19
wins this fight, she's gonna have to mix in wrestling and she's gonna score
1:07:23
more than ten x at her price tag, so I think she's more likely
1:07:27
to break the slate. Like if you think Cortes wins, go overweight to
1:07:30
her, But I'm picking Rows to win a decision, probably score eighty five
1:07:34
ninety points and they just not get there. So I like other fights more.
1:07:39
I'll be underweight as a whole, And yeah, I would agree.
1:07:44
If I'm making one lineup, this isn't gonna be in there. If I'm
1:07:45
making ten lineups, I'm still trying to get away from this in more than
1:07:48
half of them, to be honest with you. So I'll probably limit my
1:07:51
exposure to like thirty five percent max and ideally get a little bit less than
1:07:59
that on both sides. But Rose will be the one that I see being
1:08:00
higher owned, unless I'm really struggling to find underdogs, which I don't think
1:08:03
is going to be the case because I mentioned I think you can make a
1:08:06
case for every single underdog on this card, so I would rather go to
1:08:11
one that's less owned than Cortes, who I have as our highest own underdog
1:08:15
on the card. So yeah, give me Rose just because she's prepared.
1:08:19
But if this was in a different state and Cortes had a full training camp,
1:08:25
I think it would be a lot closer, and I'd be much more
1:08:27
likely to pick Cortes and maybe go overweight to her underweight Rose. But this
1:08:31
is like the perfect setup for Rose. It looks like, Yeah, I
1:08:33
couldn't agree more. You and I were on the same page with a lot
1:08:36
of that. I'll have both of us, both fighters. But again,
1:08:40
I play a lot of lineups I will play if you only had him,
1:08:45
if you had fifty dollars to play in this week, instead of playing like
1:08:48
a ten entry or ten dollars single entry, twenty entries, twenty dollars and
1:08:53
you're up to three, four or five teams, I would play. I
1:08:57
think there's one dollar contest down there, fifty cents, twenty five cents.
1:09:00
I can't see it below three dollars, but even would rather play a three
1:09:03
dollars get twenty teams in there be like sixteen. I guess whatever comes out
1:09:09
to below fifty sixteen different teams in the three dollars instead of just four or
1:09:13
five teams total. A you get more money back long term because you can
1:09:18
diversify more. Have no one in your portfolio above fifty percent. Move your
1:09:23
men uniquees up. Get in the shift tomizer. If you're a member over
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here at schipination dot com, you can use the MMA shift demizer for free.
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August fifth, stuff will start being charged to shiptemizer. Still under one
1:09:33
hundred bucks for everything, but no better time. And again, if you
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know you'll be with us for the NFL season, no better time right now
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total for NFL, and you get if you sign up right now, MMA
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all the way up until first game, which is like September fifth, PGA,
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Big Major, next week showdown. Stuff going on right now, NASCAR,
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MLB, all of the content on the site until NFL season, and
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The banner right in the front two hundred ninety nine dollars. Click that you'll
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That is the easiest way to go about It's Big Marley. Final thoughts.
1:10:40
Yeah, I mean no brainer. Sign up there, get over there,
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sign up now shippingnation dot com. All my notes are posted over at shipping
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Nation. For MMA, we got rankings for best ball, cannot wait for
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an NFL season, and yeah, we'll have that MMA education course next week,
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so looking forward to this card. Good luck to you, title,
1:10:56
good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Yeah, good luck to
1:10:58
you, good luck to everybody. Like you said, let's make some cheese
1:11:00
seven pm Eastern in Denver, season Ship and Nation logos up top for Big
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Marley um titled town, have a good weekend, make some money, be safe,