Latest / The President's Daily Brief / PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 1st, 2026: Iran Is Preparing for a Much Wider War & Hezbollah’s Secret Syria Meeting

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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 1st, 2026: Iran Is Preparing for a Much Wider War & Hezbollah’s Secret Syria Meeting · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:13
  It's Thursday,
• 0:14
  the first of October.
• 0:15
  Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin.
• 0:18
  I'm Mike Baker,
• 0:19
  your eyes and ears
• 0:20
  on the world stage,
• 0:21
  still kicking about on the road.
• 0:24
  All right,
• 0:24
  let's get briefed.
• 0:25
  First up,
• 0:26
  new reporting says Iran is preparing for a harder,
• 0:29
  more aggressive retaliation
• 0:31
  if the US strikes again,
• 0:33
  even as negotiations supposedly continue
• 0:36
  through Qatari mediators.
• 0:38
  Later in the show we'll take a look at reports that Hezbollah
• 0:41
  has secretly met with Syria's new government,
• 0:44
  marking a remarkable turn
• 0:46
  after years spent fighting to keep former strongman Assad in power.
• 0:51
  But first,
• 0:52
  today's afternoon spotlight.
• 0:54
  Iran is preparing for the possibility
• 0:56
  that the current diplomacy fails,
• 0:58
  and according to new reporting,
• 1:00
  the regime wants the next round of fighting
• 1:02
  to look very different from the last one.
• 1:05
  Reuters reports that senior Iranian commanders are now
• 1:08
  reviewing plans for a broader and more forceful response
• 1:12
  if the US resumes large scale attacks.
• 1:14
  Now no final decision has been made,
• 1:16
  but officials familiar with the discussions
• 1:19
  say the planning has intensified as neither Washington nor Tehran
• 1:23
  shows a willingness to compromise.
• 1:25
  Iranian officials say commanders are looking beyond American-linked assets
• 1:29
  and considering countries that support US military operations.
• 1:33
  Some scenarios could even involve targets outside the Middle East.
• 1:37
  Tehran has also reportedly instructed allied groups in Lebanon,
• 1:41
  Yemen,
• 1:41
  and Iraq
• 1:42
  to prepare to support Iran if another major American campaign begins.
• 1:47
  Well,
• 1:47
  that is honestly nothing new for this regime.
• 1:50
  They've already had the Houthis attacking Saudi
• 1:53
  interests and further disrupting global energy markets.
• 1:57
  One source described the concept as a
• 1:59
  coordinated response stretching from the Strait of Hormuz
• 2:02
  to US interests across the region and potentially beyond it.
• 2:05
  Of course,
• 2:06
  for Iran,
• 2:07
  making plans and issuing threats and then actually carrying them out,
• 2:10
  well,
• 2:10
  those are two very different things.
• 2:12
  7 months of war have degraded Iranian military capabilities,
• 2:16
  and the regime's ability to coordinate a wider regional response
• 2:21
  would depend in part on allied proxy
• 2:23
  groups that have been under pressure themselves.
• 2:26
  So the ambition of these plans doesn't necessarily tell us
• 2:29
  what Iran could successfully execute.
• 2:32
  But what is interesting here is the thinking behind those plans.
• 2:36
  The regime appears determined not to answer another American
• 2:40
  attack with a limited or largely symbolic response.
• 2:43
  Instead,
• 2:44
  Iranian leaders believe they need to go big and
• 2:46
  escalate more aggressively in order to reestablish deterrence,
• 2:50
  essentially
• 2:51
  convincing Washington that
• 2:52
  another major round of strikes would come with much higher costs.
• 2:56
  But that creates its own problems for the regime because
• 2:59
  another major war is also something Iran has,
• 3:02
  well,
• 3:02
  strong reasons to avoid.
• 3:05
  The US blockade
• 3:06
  has severely restricted Iranian oil exports.
• 3:09
  That's a critical source,
• 3:10
  of course,
• 3:10
  of government revenue.
• 3:12
  The riyal has fallen sharply.
• 3:14
  It's close to the region of 2.5 million riyal to the dollar currently.
• 3:19
  Years of sanctions have already weakened the economy,
• 3:21
  and Iranian officials are also reportedly worried
• 3:24
  about the possibility of renewed unrest at
• 3:26
  home as economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
• 3:30
  So Iran is preparing for a wider fight.
• 3:34
  At the same time that the pressure on the regime should,
• 3:37
  one would think,
• 3:38
  discourage them from engaging in one,
• 3:40
  but that is not the logic train
• 3:42
  that the Iranian regime is on.
• 3:44
  Meanwhile,
• 3:45
  on the diplomatic front,
• 3:46
  we're learning that the recent round of talks may have
• 3:48
  been closer to completely falling apart than initially reported.
• 3:52
  Axios reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio
• 3:55
  ordered Iran's delegation to the UN to leave the US Monday evening
• 3:59
  after negotiations reached a stalemate.
• 4:02
  According to the report,
• 4:03
  American officials had begun the day believing that
• 4:06
  there might be some progress,
• 4:08
  because,
• 4:08
  well,
• 4:08
  frankly,
• 4:09
  the optimistic,
• 4:09
  hopeful thinking in the face of evidence to the contrary
• 4:13
  knows no bounds with envoys and mediators and the State Department types.
• 4:18
  By later that afternoon,
• 4:19
  those hopes had faded,
• 4:21
  and Rubio decided the Iranian delegation had,
• 4:23
  in the words of one US official,
• 4:25
  quote,
• 4:26
  overstayed their welcome.
• 4:28
  Well,
• 4:29
  you could say that the regime has been overstaying its welcome since,
• 4:32
  I don't know,
• 4:33
  1979.
• 4:34
  Now there is an important bit of context here.
• 4:37
  Another source told Axios that Foreign Minister Abbasarakchi was
• 4:40
  already scheduled to leave New York that night,
• 4:43
  so this was not necessarily a dramatic expulsion
• 4:46
  in the way that the phrase might suggest.
• 4:49
  But the diplomatic message was clear.
• 4:51
  Washington believed the talks had hit a wall.
• 4:54
  Within hours,
• 4:55
  Arakchi traveled to Doha,
• 4:56
  where Qatar continued trying to keep the negotiations alive.
• 5:00
  The following day,
• 5:01
  Qatari mediators delivered the latest US response to Iran,
• 5:05
  and the regime's leadership,
• 5:06
  whoever that may be,
• 5:08
  is now reportedly reviewing it.
• 5:11
  So the diplomatic channel has not closed,
• 5:14
  reportedly,
• 5:15
  at least according to the ever hopeful mediators and diplomats,
• 5:18
  but the talks do appear to be on life support.
• 5:21
  Iranian officials privately told Reuters that even if
• 5:24
  Tehran does not reject the American response outright and
• 5:27
  indirect negotiations continue,
• 5:30
  they do believe an agreement remains unlikely,
• 5:32
  at least in the near term,
• 5:34
  and that helps explain why Iranian commanders
• 5:37
  are spending so much time
• 5:38
  preparing for what comes next.
• 5:41
  All right.
• 5:42
  Coming up next,
• 5:43
  Syria's new government and Hezbollah are
• 5:45
  quietly testing whether they can coexist,
• 5:48
  despite years of conflict and bloodshed.
• 5:50
  I'll be right back.
• 5:53
  Mike Baker here with a word about personal health and weight loss.
• 5:56
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• 8:00
  Welcome back to the PDB afternoon bulletin.
• 8:03
  Hezbollah once sent fighters into Syria
• 8:06
  to help keep then dictator Bashar al-Assad in power,
• 8:09
  but last month
• 8:10
  the Iran-backed group
• 8:12
  sent representatives to Turkey for secret talks
• 8:14
  with the very government that replaced him
• 8:17
  with the goal of easing regional tensions,
• 8:20
  supposedly,
• 8:20
  because,
• 8:20
  of course,
• 8:21
  Hezbollah and Iran
• 8:23
  are all about easing regional tensions.
• 8:25
  That revelation comes from an exclusive Reuters report
• 8:28
  citing 6 sources briefed on the talks.
• 8:31
  They say the two sides met at least once in September
• 8:33
  in their first known face to face meeting.
• 8:36
  Those sources included 2 Syrian officials,
• 8:39
  a US official,
• 8:39
  and a senior Lebanese security source supposedly close to Hezbollah.
• 8:44
  All spoke anonymously because of the sensitivity of the discussions.
• 8:48
  Now,
• 8:48
  to understand how they got here,
• 8:50
  you have to consider how much Hezbollah lost when Assad fell.
• 8:54
  A lightning rebel offensive toppled him in late 2024,
• 8:58
  leaving Hezbollah facing a new leadership that accused the Iranian-backed terror
• 9:02
  group of continuing to move weapons to the Syrian territory.
• 9:07
  Washington had also encouraged Syria's military
• 9:09
  to send forces into Lebanon
• 9:11
  to fight Hezbollah.
• 9:13
  But in July,
• 9:14
  Syria's foreign minister said Damascus was open to meeting Hezbollah.
• 9:18
  A month later,
• 9:19
  Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem said in a televised address
• 9:22
  that his group had no objection to meeting Syria's leadership.
• 9:26
  The Lebanese security source told Reuters that the contact between
• 9:29
  the two sides through Turkey began about 2 months ago.
• 9:33
  Now Turkey is an ally of Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharah,
• 9:37
  and they want a leading role in rebuilding and stabilizing Syria
• 9:41
  under President Erdogan.
• 9:43
  They've also sought to facilitate regional dialogue.
• 9:45
  3 sources told Reuters that Ankara pushed for the meeting to be directly involved.
• 9:51
  Turkish security and intelligence agencies extended the invitation,
• 9:55
  bringing Hezbollah representatives together with
• 9:57
  officials from Syria's intelligence service
• 9:59
  and Foreign ministry.
• 10:01
  According to the US official,
• 10:03
  the Syrian officials,
• 10:04
  and the Lebanese source,
• 10:05
  the discussions went well and focused on
• 10:07
  resolving the points of tension between them.
• 10:10
  So
• 10:11
  what were they asking of each other?
• 10:13
  Hezbollah wanted assurances against a Syrian attack inside Lebanon,
• 10:17
  as the Lebanese security source put it,
• 10:19
  quote,
• 10:19
  Hezbollah wants to protect its flank.
• 10:22
  One Syrian official said both sides agreed
• 10:24
  they held no hostility toward one another,
• 10:27
  and Damascus assured Hezbollah
• 10:29
  it would not intervene militarily in Lebanon
• 10:32
  to disarm the group.
• 10:33
  But Damascus had demands of its own.
• 10:36
  Syrian officials asked the group to help stop cross-border weapons smuggling
• 10:40
  and dismantle its alleged remaining sleeper cells.
• 10:44
  And then on Tuesday Syrian authorities announced
• 10:47
  that they had captured what they described
• 10:49
  as a Hezbollah cell preparing to launch rockets in southern Syria.
• 10:53
  If accurate,
• 10:54
  that would mean that Hezbollah was seeking restraint from Damascus
• 10:58
  while also at the same time preparing to fuel further instability
• 11:02
  inside Syria.
• 11:03
  I cannot imagine that the Iran-backed Hezbollah would
• 11:06
  speak out of both sides of its mouth.
• 11:08
  Hezbollah denied involvement Wednesday,
• 11:10
  saying it has no presence whatsoever on Syrian territory.
• 11:14
  And has no involvement in any security or military activity there,
• 11:18
  end quote.
• 11:19
  At the meeting,
• 11:20
  Hezbollah's representatives promised not to interfere in Syria's affairs.
• 11:23
  Well,
• 11:23
  that's nice,
• 11:24
  but did not directly answer its security requests,
• 11:27
  the Syrian official
• 11:28
  said.
• 11:29
  Even with those questions unresolved,
• 11:31
  the Lebanese source who had direct knowledge of the meeting and its outcomes,
• 11:35
  said the two sides made a lot of progress on security issues,
• 11:39
  end quote.
• 11:40
  But progress did not produce a deal,
• 11:42
  and the Lebanese security source pointed to Iran,
• 11:45
  which wasn't in the room.
• 11:47
  Hezbollah attended with the regime's knowledge,
• 11:50
  but reportedly Iran was disappointed at being left out of direct participation.
• 11:54
  Al Sharah had also rejected direct ties with Iran for now.
• 11:59
  The Lebanese security source
• 12:00
  said Iran's disappointment was the main reason
• 12:03
  that no final agreement emerged and no announcement followed.
• 12:06
  The Syrian official also confirmed
• 12:08
  that there was no agreement
• 12:10
  and that no announcement had been planned.
• 12:12
  And that my friends is the PDB afternoon bulletin
• 12:16
  for Thursday,
• 12:16
  the 1st of October.
• 12:17
  Now,
• 12:17
  if you have any questions or comments,
• 12:19
  and I hope you do,
• 12:19
  just reach out to me at PDB@thfirsttv.com
• 12:23
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• 12:30
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• 12:33
  I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow.
• 12:34
  Until then,
• 12:36
  stay informed,
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  stay safe,
• 12:38
  stay cool.
• 12:52
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