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Liam Hehir: Political Commentator on Chris Hipkins appears to distance himself from Te Pati Māori · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: More drama falls a party. Mardi Edu Kapakini. This is
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: the guy who led that big protest, big hikoy over
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: the treaty bill. He's cut ties with the party, saying
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: it's run like a dictatorship. Talks about it being ego driven.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Chris Sipkins of course not rolling out working with them
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: next year, but says they're a long way from government,
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  Speaker 1: needs to sort their act out. Liam here as political
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  Speaker 1: commentator with me this morning.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Liam, good morning and good morning here.
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  Speaker 1: Right, So is this good in some ways potentially good
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  Speaker 1: for labor on the Maori seats, but also bad in
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  Speaker 1: terms of forming a government.
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  Speaker 3: No, I think it's only bad. I don't think that
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  Speaker 3: these type of internal ructions really weaken the minor parties
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  Speaker 3: in the way that they weaken major parties in terms
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  Speaker 3: of how they go with the voters. You know, we've
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: seen in the past. You know, the Greens have had
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: a terrible couple of years, right, and the Greens have
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: had some internal ructions in the past. But because of
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: the dynamics of how the works of their voters and
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  Speaker 3: how their voters they imagery motivated by different things. Is
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: it seem to go down in the polls or perform
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  Speaker 3: any worse. As long as they basically hold together, they
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  Speaker 3: can have quite a lot of internal discord and still
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  Speaker 3: retain their voter base. So I think it's only bad
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  Speaker 3: for Labor given that Labor. There hasn't been a single polls.
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  Speaker 3: It's a general election showing Labor able to form a
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  Speaker 3: government at TPM. And the fact of the matter is
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  Speaker 3: that while TPM might not be materially damaged by this,
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: Labor will be because Labor will have the association and
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  Speaker 3: its Labor voters will be repelled by its not TPM voters.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: Which is why you're here to be saying this.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: I think Party Marty have got some internal issues of
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: their own to work through. They look like they're quite
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  Speaker 1: a long way away from being ready to play a
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  Speaker 1: constructive role in any future government. Is that basically like
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  Speaker 1: a kickoup the JACKSI they've still got time to turn
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  Speaker 1: their party around and be a credible partner for them.
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  Speaker 3: Well, it's not really within control. I don't think you know,
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  Speaker 3: talking about being if he's ruling them out with not
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  Speaker 3: if he's saying that they're a long way off of
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  Speaker 3: being a constrictive party in government with him. But he's
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  Speaker 3: essentially saying that he was to being government, right, So
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  Speaker 3: like perhaps it's a it's probably the strongest sort of
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  Speaker 3: statement that a labor leaders ever made about TVM in
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  Speaker 3: recent years, which just goes to show how reliant they
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  Speaker 3: are on TVM. It's pretty weak objectively, but ultimately if
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: that's the strongest kind of distancing you're going to get, well,
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  Speaker 3: you know, that's actually pretty weak.
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  Speaker 1: What about the Marty seats themselves? Do you think we
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  Speaker 1: could see support moving to because obviously the tide's been
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  Speaker 1: turning against labor. Could we see as a result of
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  Speaker 1: this break of the movement some more support for labor
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  Speaker 1: in the Marty seats?
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  Speaker 3: No, I don't think so, because all of this is
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  Speaker 3: all of us is inside baseball, right. It's not the
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  Speaker 3: type of thing that in those seats is going to
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  Speaker 3: make the difference. You've still got all the energy on
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  Speaker 3: the on the tpm's sort of side. And I think
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  Speaker 3: the best analogy is to the Scottish National Party, which
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  Speaker 3: has sort of wiped out labor in Scotland and which
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  Speaker 3: hasn't really been flown down in that regard by its
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  Speaker 3: own difficulties, internal breakdowns and arguments and factionalism, fun time,
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  Speaker 3: de time. The more dominant thing is that actually TPM
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  Speaker 3: is a more dynamic, more populist movement, and then the
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  Speaker 3: Mouldi electorates, which are a low turnout lecturates. It's actually
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  Speaker 3: that type of energy that matters a lot more. And
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  Speaker 3: I think that the by election written by election is
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  Speaker 3: really the sign of things to come right.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: I appreciate that analysis. Thank you. Liam Here with us
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  Speaker 2: political commentator.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge, Listen live
• 3:56
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• 3:59
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