Latest / Commodity Week / May 29 | Commodity Week
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- cw260528 The May 28, 2026 edition of Commodity Week centers on the volatility and risk management challenges currently facing the agricultural sector. Analysts Naomi Blohm and Arlan Suderman emphasize that geopolitical tensions, specifically the conflict involving Iran and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are creating significant headline risk that could drastically impact crude oil and fertilizer prices for the 2027 crop year. Domestically and globally, unpredictable weather patterns—including hot and dry forecasts in the United States and potential production struggles in Brazil and India—are adding uncertainty to crop yields and input costs. With December corn and November soybeans testing key technical support and resistance levels, the panelists urge farmers to establish written marketing plans to mitigate emotional decision-making. Furthermore, shifting global trade dynamics, such as Brazil overtaking Argentina in soybean meal exports and ongoing USMCA negotiations with Canada and Mexico, underscore the critical need for producers to execute objective sales strategies during seasonal price highs. Panelists - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com - Arlan Suderman, StoneX.com announce: Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: Welcome to Commodity Week. I am Todd Gleason. Our panelists for the day include Arlan Suderman from StoneX out of Kansas City, Missouri, and Naomi Blohm at Total Farm Marketing out of West Bend, Wisconsin. Commodity Week, of course, is a production of Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand at willag.org. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason. Let's get a list of items that we should take up for the day. I think, Naomi Blohm, we'll start with you. What have you been thinking about this week? Naomi Blohm: Yeah, thinking about a lot of things as it pertains to the grain market. Prices testing support levels on charts, maybe getting a recovery bounce here as the forecast is shifting to hotter and drier. But then just reminding producers we are still in that seasonal window where a lot of times between Mother's Day and Father's Day, we can find that price high for the grain markets. So we want to be focused on that as well, just in regards to again focusing on those cash sales. Todd Gleason: Arlan Suderman, on your list? Arlan Suderman: Yeah, I think headline risk. We've got a lot of it in both directions. So what is the risk management plan that you have to manage that risk exposure? Because we could have China come in and buy, or we could not have them come in and buy. We could see this war kind of calm down and see the Strait of Hormuz open up, or stay closed. And the implications are significant for fuel costs and fertilizer, particularly fertilizer for 2027, fuel even for this year for getting this year's crops taken care of and for harvest later in the year. And then the price implications for the grains as well. So a lot of variables, and that just demands that we have some type of plan in place to take the emotion out of those decisions as we go through the next few months. Todd Gleason: So as we sit here on a Thursday afternoon recording, it is unclear what will be taking place as it's related to the Strait of Hormuz and the war with Iran. The President has said, I believe, that he'd like to have a couple of days to think about a memorandum of understanding that apparently has been penned. I am wondering, Arlan, what you think that headline risk is related to the war and the President's decision, and I suppose the continuation of violence and missiles being moved around in the Middle East. Arlan Suderman: Yeah, and I think the President is still weighing what his options are, and those options, none of the options are really good at this point. And if in fact he agrees to something that allows the Strait of Hormuz to open up, or that Iran says, okay, we'll allow it to be opened up, and first of all my bias is I don't think it's going to happen. I don't think the Strait of Hormuz, they may agree to something, but I just can't see Iran giving up that leverage with the Strait of Hormuz and they're far from agreeing on some of the critical matters needed to end this conflict. But you have to think what if it happens? First of all, the algos are going to drive this market lower. They're going to drive crude oil lower, and we've seen this pattern. When crude oil goes lower, it creates headwinds for the grain and oil seeds. And so that's a risk to the downside. And then if the crop ratings happen to come out better than expected and good over the next few weeks, we could see the funds really start to put some downward pressure on these grain and oil seed prices. That's the downside risk. On the other hand, we could see Trump saying, "Nah, I don't like this agreement, and in fact, I'm tired of negotiating. You're just trying to delay, delay, delay. So I'm going to turn it on again and we're going to start hitting Iran hard militarily." Energy prices surge, grain and oil seed prices go up. As Naomi said, the weather turns warmer and drier, and we could see that upside price risk. We don't know, we're not fortune tellers. If we knew what it was going to do, we wouldn't be talking to you today, we'd be on a beach someplace. But that is the risk that farmers face in their decisions and they need to find a way to mitigate that risk exposure because the implications for the farm are pretty significant. Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm, when you look at the supports, the technical side of this marketplace, the charts, what has it been telling you about the risk that is in it at the moment? Naomi Blohm: Well, it does piggyback off what Arlan said, to where anytime crude oil prices start to edge lower, the grain markets and oil seeds have started to follow lower as well. And the November beans yesterday actually flirted with this five-month uptrend line, broke support initially, but was able to finish above the upward channel. Prices had some follow-through action today. So it was very important that November beans yesterday held $11.75. Today they finished up near the $11.94 area, and $12.00 will continue to be a significant resistance area in the short term, especially heading into the weekend. And I would guess then when we come back on Sunday night for trade, to Arlan's point again, whatever might be happening in the Middle East could dictate market direction along with weather forecasts. And when you do that same correlation with December corn futures, December corn futures broke that five-month uptrend yesterday, but today just able to kind of climb back to finish on it, posting a bullish hook reversal. So corn is maybe trying to say, "Well, we're not quite ready to see a major marketplace price push to the downside, because we still have a lot of weather to get through." But still, December corn, even though it was able to finish near $4.82 today, has significant resistance up near that $5.00 handle. So in the coming days and weeks, if we can see those November beans get back up to $12.00, if we can see that December corn get back up to $5.00, that likely is a very good place to continue with some cash sales. And then building on what Arlan said, if by chance there's a dramatic flare-up in the Middle East or if the weather continues in a hot and dry pattern, we can look at ways for doing re-ownership strategies. But quickly and easily, if there is no flare-up in the Middle East, if the rain is forecast to come in the next couple of weeks, then prices could easily shift lower. So you do need to be ready for either scenario. Todd Gleason: Arlan, you mentioned that you're not convinced that there will be a memorandum of understanding that is signed. Part of that is that you don't believe the Iranians will give up the leverage that they have in the Strait of Hormuz. The President has said he would like that opened unconditionally, and I think I read that within 30 days to have the mines removed from the strait. I think that's probably where you come up with the real issue. That would be them just pulling the leverage out of the water, quite frankly. How do you see this moving forward? Arlan Suderman: Well, you've summarized some of the issues very well. The Strait of Hormuz is what they're using to create economic pain for the world, hoping that that will create political pressure on the United States in order to back off and withdraw its military forces. And also if they can delay the longer they can delay, hoping that high gas prices here in the United States ahead of the midterm elections will create political pressure on President Trump here to do the same. Frankly, that's their primary survival strategy that the Revolutionary Guard has right now. And if they were to say, okay, we're going to open up the Strait of Hormuz, anybody can go through it freely, and we get the thousand-some ships that are behind it able to get out and start to see some flow again, that would remove a tremendous amount of negotiating leverage that they have. And so even if they sign a memorandum of understanding, I don't expect it to go well. But in a best-case scenario, they sign it, everything opens up, it's going to take a while before we get any free flow of energy and fertilizer through the strait. And by that, I mean getting back up to pre-war levels. Probably talking about several months, if not several years, before we get to that level based on the infrastructure damage done, the wells that have been shut down and have to be restarted, etc. So it's not a panacea. The markets will initially react that way and then they'll bounce back up to kind of reflect reality. But again, I just don't think Iran, the Revolutionary Guard specifically, is going to give up that leverage, which is their biggest leverage that they have to try to get the United States to back off. Todd Gleason: So this, Naomi, is about managing risk related to price inputs potentially as much as it is related to pricing the grain that you expect to be able to market in the coming months. And I'm sure you've been having these conversations with your clientele about diesel fuel and nitrogen, particularly for the fall diesel, maybe all the way into the spring, even if things are settled. Maybe further all the way into the fall depending on how long it takes to backfill, I suppose, the needs of all the nations across the planet that have been using their surpluses and reserves. So what should farmers think about in both of those respects, both on input prices and pricing their crops? Naomi Blohm: I think of it from the standpoint of marketing the crop you have now and then thinking about even heading towards 2027. So let's kind of break it down here. So I think a lot of producers, for the most part, of course there were some that didn't have all of the anhydrous or the fertilizer needs met, but for the most part, I do feel that a good chunk of the Midwest American farmers had their input costs covered and they know their cost of production. So when they can get these opportunities for December corn to be near $5.00 and November beans to be near $12.00, there's some opportunity there for them. But the question does revolve around: should they book any additional fuel needs now just in case prices get worse throughout summer or stay high into harvest for what they would need for their harvest needs? And that is a question that clients have asked. And then we look at seasonals, and a lot of times seasonals would suggest that the price of crude oil or fuel will stay higher through 4th of July and then start to edge lower as we get closer to Labor Day in September. So it does make me wonder, will we see any sort of a seasonal pullback or not? Crude oil futures did post a bearish key reversal on weekly charts last week, so that might be a signal that things could be simmering down, so to speak, in the Middle East and prices could be starting to edge lower. But then I do think about 2027. And Arlan had alluded to that earlier in the show. And actually, for 2027, I'm becoming a little bit more bullish for prices and a little bit more nervous for those input costs because it is such an unknown right now for farmers, just for all of the various aspects of their input costs. And this is, I think, one of the biggest years, potentially since Russia invaded Ukraine a few years back, where we just don't have a good handle on what these inputs are going to be or potentially where prices could go. So I think for right now I would consider it like just taking things day by day, buying fuel inputs just as needed, not necessarily bulking up on a large amount. But definitely being mindful of the headlines in the Middle East, that will be definitely a driving factor between now and 4th of July. I'm hopeful that President Trump would want to see things with a little bit of a resolution before we get into 4th of July as we celebrate America's 250th, but there's definitely a lot of risk on the table. Todd Gleason: Arlan, your colleague Josh Linville follows, of course, the fertilizer industry very well. You and he are situated next to each other in the office space. I know you talk all the time. Related to nitrogen particularly, what are his thoughts and your thoughts about that 2027 crop year and fall anhydrous ammonia needs? Arlan Suderman: Yeah, this year, as Naomi said, everything's pretty well supplied. We did see lower application rates in Ukraine and parts of Eastern Europe. How much reduction in yield that's going to have is yet to be seen. They've got some fairly good soils there. Australia will be our first test as they put in the winter wheat crop there, and well, the winter wheat crop is going in now, but what kind of nitrogen gets put on there at these prices and availability, that is harvested in November-December. And then as we get into the fall, the fall application for next spring as well as on the winter wheat crop availability. I think we're certainly seeing reduced production, and we're going to see reduced production for quite some time after this ends as infrastructure is rebuilt. One of the key questions here is India. They produce about thirty-some million metric tons of their own nitrogen in addition to buying quite a bit of urea. How much their current production is curtailed because they can't get feedstock they need from the Middle East? How much is their production curtailed? They're going to pay what they need to pay because the government does the paying to make sure they can feed their people. So they're going to make sure they get their share of supply, and how far their domestic production is reduced that they have to buy depends on how much is left for much of the rest of the world and what that's going to cost. So the richest countries will basically be able to pay and have the supply at whatever price. The poorest countries will not. I think you look at what countries could be hurt the most, and that would be Brazil. Their soils are not very forgiving with the amount of rainfall they get on those soils in Center-West Brazil. And so if there's a reduction in application there, that's where you're likely to get the most significant yield loss. And of course, as you know, Brazil is a major exporter of grain and oil seeds. So that could significantly impact global production. Todd Gleason: And they have the next crop that has to come in play, not the corn crop until next February or thereabouts for their inputs. But they are, Arlan, also far more reliant than the United States is on outside sources. For instance, the FarmDoc team this week points out that only 6% of the nitrogen needs in the United States are supplied by the export market. Phosphate is about 13%, potassium is nearly everything coming out of Canada, but certainly not the case out of Brazil. Arlan Suderman: Yeah, you're exactly right there. They're very dependent upon that region of the world as well as Russia. And the other piece of this equation too is Ukraine has become more effective in striking at Russian refineries and fertilizer facilities. And that compounds it, but it's not been in the news because the news is focused on the Middle East, but things are really taking a toll with Ukraine making deeper strikes into Russia on some of these facilities as well. Todd Gleason: Now given all of that, Naomi, I wonder if one of the things—and this has been in the background but really not played out just yet in the marketplace—if there is a worry by the broader market at some point that will lift it based on lower yields across the planet for all crops. Do you think that is there along with, you know, all the weather things that we're worried about during the summertime in the United States? Naomi Blohm: We haven't even touched that in terms of price for markets. If that were to happen where there's lower production either due to weather or to lower fertilizer application, it is not at all in any capacity priced into these markets. And I'm glad that Arlan brought up India. I didn't realize that we actually have an American trade team heading over to India June 1st through the 4th. And earlier this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that India has committed—he used a specific tone of "has committed"—to purchasing $500 billion worth of American goods over the next five years, and it'll be energy, technology, agriculture. So I think India is really aware that all of the fertilizer that they need to input, you know, they are of course the number one population in the world, they are right now fifth or sixth in terms of global economic powerhouse, and they're needing to make sure that they have the food there. So there's even talk this week also that they had been able to export just a little bit of soybean meal, and now they're saying, "We're not going to export anything more for soybean meal," and they're actually looking to import some soybean meal from actually from some African countries. And we're looking to see, are they going to continue to import soybean meal? Their demand for soybean oil is growing. There's a possibility that they could even just import soybeans. So that is a big story. And with India, of course, they are a major grower of wheat in the world, and everything that they grow they use. So if they have a production loss issue, it's a big deal. And India, my understanding with how the weather pattern is going, is they're already pretty hot and dry and that trend could continue for summer. So that is a place in the world, not just the United States, but that is a global powerhouse and a major place where we need to watch food production for what they grow and keep an eye on them for any potential future import needs. Todd Gleason: Now I know I brought this particular topic up as it's related to total production across the planet, but ever the bear, I will point farmers and others at least on corn to the N-rate calculator online. The land grant system across the Midwest has put together—and it clearly points to the idea that farmers generally use 10 to 20% more nitrogen than they actually need to optimize yields for different price levels and points. They can manage to figure that out on their own. The number of pounds by the way that is presented in that calculator is total pounds. So it's the nitrogen you apply as nitrogen, but also the 28% and the DAP and the MAP and any other sources. So total pounds of N. Check that out: N-rate calculator. Now, I would like to stay in the policy issues with you, Arlan, this week. Jameson Greer was making some comments about the USMCA, those negotiations are underway. However, he was asked, and the negotiations with Mexico in the moment, there is a bilateral negotiating trade team there. And about Canada, he said, well there are things that we will want to make sure we negotiate, but beyond that not much. Is there a worry for agriculture there? He did probably—it was fertilizer inputs I'm sure—but ethanol as an export is enormous to that nation. Arlan Suderman: It really is. And I think Canada is probably the bigger concern. I think that President Trump and President Sheinbaum of Mexico have developed a working ability, working relationship that allows them to work together. I think President Sheinbaum has been pretty responsive anytime the United States has had a concern. And I would expect negotiations there to go much better. Canada is a different story. There's just been an antagonism there. And while President Sheinbaum has sought to try to get along, I'm not sure that's been the case north of the border. And in fact, Mark Carney's trip to China, to Beijing, where he signed some agreements that went really counter to US objectives and goals, were very frustrating to President Trump, and he does tend to remember those things and leverage those things. So that is a concern. We do need Canadian crude oil into the Midwest refineries. We need them to buy ethanol from us. There's other products as well that we trade, so that is a relationship we would like to maintain. But I think the conflict between Carney and Trump is a risk to that as we go forward. Todd Gleason: I think you were the one that told me that the Canadian crude oil is important because it is heavy and it produces diesel fuel for the United States. Arlan Suderman: Yeah, absolutely. Our refineries are pretty much all 50 years old or older here in the United States, designed for imported heavy crude. And much of what we produce in the shale oil fields is light crude. So we tend to export a lot of that while importing the heavy crude. And those refineries, of course, located along the Great Lakes states. So we'll have to watch that as well. Todd Gleason: You did mention you wanted to talk about price implications. We'll start with you and then move to Naomi on this one. What do you think price implications at this point are for the market? Arlan Suderman: Well, Naomi made a comment earlier that I tend to agree with as far as the possibility of better prices as we go into '27. That timing is a real question and when the funds would start trading that, will it be this year or will it be sometime next year? If we do see reduced global production, we're also seeing a move toward biofuel demand globally with a tighter fossil fuel supply. And I would anticipate that that will continue over the next one to two years regardless of when this war ends. And so that does give us a—let me put it this way, I feel like we have an elevated floor in the markets. That doesn't mean that we can't collapse them with the funds selling at some point, and I still want to manage risk, but I think the floor is certainly higher now than what it was a few months ago. Todd Gleason: What do you mean by manage risk? What risk are you managing? The input risk, the price risk for the end crop? Which one do you want to be more wary of? Arlan Suderman: Yeah, that's a good question. I'm probably most wary of my input risk at this point, and that would be diesel fuel because I think we're probably going to see things get worse before they get better. How much worse is difficult to say yet until we know how this is going to end and when this is going to end in the Middle East. The longer it goes, the greater the risk presented. Right now the world is living off of reserve supplies of crude oil, floating reserves that have been there sanctioned that's been released, as well as strategic petroleum reserves globally. But that is running, starting to run low, and so we really haven't felt the real shortages. Fertilizer is a longer-term story, the same thing. And we complain about high prices here, but that's largely because prices are much, much higher overseas. And so there's an arbitrage pull to export what we have here and we have to maintain high enough prices here to keep that from happening. And so input prices are probably my biggest concern as we go forward. Right now we have the crop in the ground, so now it becomes a harvest fuel needs that you have. Todd Gleason: And Naomi, your thoughts on price implications going forward? Naomi Blohm: I agree with what Arlan had said. And I remember years past when I thought prices were fundamentally so well supported that surely they could never go down, and I would get egg all over my face and be wrong. And so right now I'm just looking at a continuous weekly chart of December corn futures. And if this uptrend fails, if we do a simple 50% correction, that takes December futures back down to a price point of the $4.50 area. And then we would see if that holds as support or not. You know, there's always that risk that the funds exit long positions, but what if they decide to go short? And sometimes that exaggeration of going short and becoming sellers in the market pushes the futures prices lower than where we think they ought to go, so that's always a risk there. And that carries over with the new crop November beans as well. If we do a 50% correction on that, that'll take that marketplace back down towards $11.50 on the November price. So watch the funds, they're equally as important as the headlines, it's also as important as the weather. A lot of moving parts right now, definitely for sure. In the next three weeks to four weeks are probably going to be very volatile in the grains. Todd Gleason: Naomi, I would like to do a policy thing with you as well, a couple of things happening in the week. Brazil overtook Argentina, I saw a report at least in the first four months of this year, as the number one exporter of soybean meal. That's interesting, and plays, I think, fairly well with the announcements out of Brazil that it is going to dial back its 24% tax on soybean exports to 15%, but it won't start until January of 2027 and it'll take two years to do that. So just looking at that, biofuels in general, the RVOs that have been coming out of Washington D.C. supporting renewable diesel, biomass-based diesel, soy diesel, those things. The move across the planet to these fuels that are based on crops. What does that tell you if anything about the underlying fundamentals for soybeans across the planet? Naomi Blohm: Just reminds us that there's a lot of moving parts as far as where export demand falls, and that can change throughout the year. So to your point now, Brazil flexing towards Argentina to say, hey, we can export more soybean meal than you, is kind of a big deal. Obviously, their production in general of soybeans is larger than Argentina. But they're trying to step forward and say that they are competitive to the world. And as currency fluctuations change, there's times throughout the year where it's short-term demand, where a different country can be the big dog as far as exporting goes. And that can change throughout the year, of course, along with natural ebbs and flows of when harvested crops are available. I think it's a reminder that you can never assume that you're going to be the best country for exports, and there's always going to be competition. That competition, to your point, is based on policy. It can be shifted quickly based on tax policies, it can be shifted depending on values of currency fluctuations, and just so many moving parts to that. So I don't think anyone can rest on their laurels to say that they're going to always be the best exporter of a certain ag commodity. There's always competition and that competition is always out to win for their own individual efforts. Todd Gleason: Let's get some final thoughts from each of you now. Arlan Suderman at StoneX, thank you for joining us today. What are your final thoughts? Arlan Suderman: Yeah, as I kind of listen to the conversation we're having here, I'm thinking, okay, we've probably generated a lot of emotions and maybe some anxiety, and I certainly don't want to do that because that's one of the biggest enemies of solid marketing and planning. And I'd say you can kind of get a handle on those emotions by just writing down a plan. Work with your marketing advisor, or even your spouse—they tend to a lot of times have better ability to remove the emotions than what we do. And write down a plan. Write down what you think are good prices and good strategies and discuss how you might obtain that, what you might do if the price reaches those levels. You want to be able to do it and have something written down, and that tends to remove much of the emotion from the marketplace. And when the time comes to make a sale, do it and hope that you get more for the rest of what you sell. You don't have to sell the whole thing in one swoop. I certainly hope you don't. Todd Gleason: Those things that we have talked about present opportunities, also some issues, but if you have a plan as you've said and alluded to, Arlan, you can take advantage of those opportunities. I know that's probably what you're thinking as well, Naomi. What are your final thoughts as it's related to the marketplace? Naomi Blohm: Yeah, I love what Arlan said. And just building on that again, a reminder to the producers listening that we are in the seasonal window where the grain markets can find their summer price high. A lot of times it can be between Mother's Day and Father's Day. Father's Day weekend is also going to be a three-day holiday weekend with Juneteenth, the markets will be closed. So that can add some volatility. So moving forward, you know, just be aware that realistically for grain prices to go higher from here, it's got to take a combination of dramatic war flare-up in the Middle East and a hot and dry forecast that lingers into July. So we're kind of asking a lot for some sort of significant rally to occur. So be mindful of what's in front of you. I love what Arlan said about removing factors that create emotion in the marketplace and bring it down to the basics, bring it down to the numbers, keep an eye on what the funds are doing, and just don't lose sight of the value that's in front of you. Todd Gleason: A three-day weekend in the middle of June is June the 19th, that's Juneteenth, and then of course Father's Day on the Sunday following that Friday. We've been listening, of course, to Commodity Week from Illinois Public Media. You may hear the whole of the program anytime you'd like. You can do that on our website at willag.org. Our thanks go to our panelists this week including Naomi Blohm, she's at Total Farm Marketing out of West Bend, Wisconsin, and Arlan Suderman joined us from StoneX in Kansas City, Missouri. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.