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Super Bowl LX Expected Line Moves, Parlay of the Day, Sharp Action & More! · Best Betting Show Ever

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All right, welcome into the best Betting show ever.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: As we inch a little bit closer to the big
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: game on Sunday, Joan area alongside Art does Caesar Steve Merrill.
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: Coming up a little bit later here in the show,
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: we're going to run down the latest on the Super
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: Bowl market as well as the prop betting market. Art's
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: going to have a few more of those, shall we say,
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: big bet.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Props coming in there for you, so get ready.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: Well, also, let you know what's happening in the other markets,
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: college basketball, NBA, NHL and a parlay of the day,
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: some best bets and we'll do our rundowns for you
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: and Art come before the storm, right. Olympics already under
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: the way, I believe the USA women's hockey team getting
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: ready to go as the men have one more night
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: in the NHL, and then of course after that they'll
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: be flying out to take on hopefully Canada at some
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: point here. But it should be a lot of fun.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: But in the meantime, what is the latest going on
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: at the Westgate here? What do we need to know
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: about the Super Bowl market?
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: Five and forty five and a half, Joe, we have
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: not budged off that it feels like we've been there
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: for the last week. You know, we've probably started to
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: see a little bit more New England money than we
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: have over this you know, first week or so, we're
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: still you know, five to one ticket count on Seattle.
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: So we're still buried ticket wise on Seattle. You know,
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: as we look at this game, you know, as I
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: mentioned early, I think last week, we do really well
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: in New England. In the future market do pretty well
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: in Seattle. But New England is a really really good
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: win for us. If they do win the Super Bowl,
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: We're gonna need New England in the game. It feels like,
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: unless something really dramatically changes here, because like I said,
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: it feels like the sharps and the public are both
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: lined up on Seattle. People are still not nibbling on
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: our money line, the highest out there plus two dollars.
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: So listen, a lot can change. You know, we could
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: be sitting here Sunday morning and a lot changes. But
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: as we're sitting here Thursday morning, not much has changed
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: here in these last three or four.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Days, you know.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: And I love when the leagues come out and the
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: reports you know, by parliam and everyone else, like, oh
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: we got a million dollar bet on Seattle. We got
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: a million dollar bet on the Patriots, and yet I'm
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: looking at the going, well.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: That didn't move very much. Huh uh.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: That's we got million dollar bets, six figure bets coming
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: in left and right, art and nothing's moving.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I'm like, wait a minute, but what does that mean?
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: What is that?
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: Well, it means art once again, and it's bears repeating
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: just because you're coming up to the window with you know,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: six seven figure bets. Yeah, it doesn't mean you're gonna
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: be influencing the market in any way, shape or form.
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: No, that's true.
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: I mean when it comes to the super Bowl, outside
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: of maybe a couple of names who are going to
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: make that bet, the super Bowl, a line's really not
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: going to be influenced much, you know.
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: I mean it's not Week six, correct.
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: You know, It's not like when someone comes up and
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: that's fifty k, you know, on a Week six game,
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: then you really are like, okay, we got to put
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: you know, the super Bowl.
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: It's hard to say, like we're.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: Booking to this action because there's just so much action
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: and the majority of its public. So it's just such
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: a different game and such a different exercise to book
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: a super Bowl compared to anything else.
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, don't get caught up with the oh dude put
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: a million dollars down, like yeah, okay, so what nobody
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: cares here, But we do anticipate volume will begin to increase,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: probably later today into tomorrow ART, So we'll have a
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: final look tomorrow see if there's anything coming in that's
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: going to move the needle one way or the other side.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: You're still laying to a beating four and a half. Five.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: It is what it is. Total.
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: We do still anticipate ART that we're gonna get maybe
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: a little more over money is certainly over tickets, So
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: one way or the other, we're likely not gonna land
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: forty five. Would you bet on that?
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: I would.
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: And like I said, the our forty five was there
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: for a little bit. Now we're forty five and a half,
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: I really expect us to go up. I think we'll
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: get you know, maybe we could get back to our
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: opening number of forty six and a half, but I
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: definitely think we're gonna see forty six at some point.
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: And you know, it's just one of those.
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: Things where you're gonna get so much public money on
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: the over that you're not gonna be worried if a
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: sharp guy comes and hit you on under forty six,
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: because they're gonna be overwhelmed by the public money on
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: the over. So it's gonna be fine to kind of
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: book it that way.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Love it all right, So we've got side and total. Now,
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: of course, time to talk about the big prop moves here.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Art.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: You've been giving us a handful of each day that
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: you're seeing rolling in. So what do you got for
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: us today in the prop betting margin?
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: This is gonna be the Hunter Henry day. He is
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: very popular with the Sharps. They took over thirty eight
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: and a half yards. They took over sixteen and a
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: half his longest reception. And then we have some matchup props, Joe,
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: which are a lot of fun. So we have Henry
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: versus Cooper Cup. They laid three and a half yards
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: and five and a half yards. That's up all the
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: way to nine and a half yards. That is a
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: prop where you are laying nine and a half yards
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: with Henry against Cup to have more yards and Cup
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: they did the same thing with Hunter Henry versus Kenneth Walker.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: They laid eleven and a half they laid thirteen and
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: a half. We're now nineteen and a half on that.
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: So Hunter Henry very popular with the Sharps and he's
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: been pretty popular actually with the public too. For any
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: time touchdowns, to be the first touchdown scorer, to be
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: the first Patriots touchdown scorer. And then I'm gonna give
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: you another kicking prop, Myers, the Seattle kicker. To have
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: a fifty plus yard field goal.
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: Wow.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: They took him at plus two fifty. We're now under
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: two dollars on that. Plus one ninety to have a
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: fifty yard plus field goal made in the game.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Wow. All right, So there you go.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: And we've always said it, Art, We've been talking about that,
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: that they may be the special teams props. Certainly from
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: a kicking perspective. We're going to be very interesting moving forward,
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: just simply because something tells me both these coaches they
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: won't be throwing caution into win. Take the damn points
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl, all right, and don't be going
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: for it on fourth and four all the time. So
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: how about Art. We did get some questions in the
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: chat room, what are you seeing as far as the
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: two quarterbacks go?
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Any any action on the passing.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: Do guys believe we're gonna get, you know, a big
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: passing number passing yards over?
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Are we getting unders there?
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: What are we seeing any sort of action regarding the
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: quarterbacks and throwing the ball?
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, the quarterback stuff has been kind of quiet,
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: to be honest with you, as far as the throwing.
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: You know, as I mentioned yesterday, I believe.
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: Or maybe even the day before, Drake May very popular
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: and is over rushing yards rushing attempts. So May's been
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: popular with his legs. Donald's been popular under with his legs.
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: But yeah, you know, the passing stuff is gonna be.
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: Public stuff for the most part.
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: They're gonna bet both quarterbacks over, both quarterbacks to throw,
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: you know, over their touchdowns, and then you're gonna get
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: into the index props where you could pick the exact
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: amount of yards where you're like, okay, here's the range
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: three hundred or three twenty two eighty two, Like you
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: kind of have like a twenty yard range in these
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: index props that you can bet you get nice odds
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: on that same thing with the touchdowns, like well, Donald
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: throw exactly three touchdowns.
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: Things of that nature.
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: If anything, the sharps go into those index props and
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: they'll bet like zero. They'll be like, Okay, Sam Darnold
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: zero touchdowns or Drake may zero touchdowns because they're just
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: looking for a price, which they know the public's not
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: gonna bet zero. The public's not interested in betting the
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: quarterbacks that throw zero because that's not the type of
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: game the public wants to see.
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: Ever.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: They always want to see high scoring, you know, all
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: that type of stuff. So yeah, you know what, I'll
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: dive into a little bit more and if there are
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: some passing props that I can mention tomorrow, I'll try
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: to do that.
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: I you know, you mentioned Hunter and Henry getting a
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: little bit of love here. You know, I've heard two
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: different schools of thought, and I'm wondering what you're seeing
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: regarding Varner on the other side of a J. Bonner
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: on the other side, because the tight ends, I mean,
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: you're talking about Bobo and we almost fell off the
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: chair laughing yesterday.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: It's hysterical that that's coming in.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: But what about it, I mean outside of you know
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: JSN for Seattle or is Cooper Kupp is the tight
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: end getting any love here?
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Or is everyone just folk on.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: JSN on the Seattle side because he's the guy. Certainly
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: the public, I would imagine it's just going to continue
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: to bet him like he's going to be you know,
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: Jerry Rice in the MVP across the board.
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know who the public is really all over.
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: They're betting Cooper Cup like he's the rams.
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: You know, I want to say, and I'll give you
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: the full numbers tomorrow. I think right now on our
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: anytime touchdown score, just ticket count, Cup is like in
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: the top two or three. Wow, And listen, he's not
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: a crazy Yeah, he's not a crazy It's not like
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: he's twenty to one, right, you know, it's not like
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: he's a crazy number. But the name Cooper Cup outside
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: of you know, JSN tob A anytime touchdown score or
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: you know, I don't know, Stevenson's getting some love for
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: the Patriots, Cup is right there with ticket count. He's
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: been very popular with the public. Yeah, I mean Cooper Cup.
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: And even if you see a little bit of people
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: sprinkling on him to win the MVP.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Ah, I love that. I love that a lot.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Here are you are those starting does the public dive
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: into MVP That MVP of the game is because it's
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: almost always a quarterback. We know that, but are we
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: seeing love outside the quarterback? Possibly in this game since
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: it's such a low total too.
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: What really happens with the MVP is, of course you're
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: gonna get your tickets on both quarterbacks, but you really
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: start to see everyone.
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: Take shots with the long shots long shots, you.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: Know, and it's all five, ten, fifteen to twenty dollars bets.
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: I mentioned this last week.
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: Every defensive guy becomes popular, yep, because.
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: They're all at long odds.
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: You know, there's a lot of guys at one hundred,
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: two hundred and three hundred to one.
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: I've mentioned before.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: There's always a kicker that gets love, and this year
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: will be the Seattle kicker. There's always a kicker that
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: gets love in the MVP market. Obviously, a kicker has
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: never won the MVP of the game. Obviously, defensive guys
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: have won the thing that you don't see anymore because
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: it hasn't happened since Terrell Davis. The running backs never
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: win any yep, so they don't really get much love
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: in the market. I mean, obviously, if Stevenson had like
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: three touchdowns of the game, he would obviously have to
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: be in the conversation here.
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: But that's the one thing.
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: You see the ticket count on the running backs to
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: win the MVP very low.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: Up there, you go, all right, worth taking a flyer here.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: Anything is possible, that is for sure, Art to Caesar
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: here and Art. In addition, of course, in a big
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: game on Sunday, the prop betting market, we still got
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: college hoops, we still got NBA.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Will Jannis be traded? Will he not?
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: I bet you John Moran is going to be traded
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: though before, maybe even before this show is over here.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Art, But how about the moves today?
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: You're getting a little less action because of all the
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: uncertainty in the NBA, because yesterday was just over the top.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: You know, the market was moving left and right with
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: the announcements going on. It's you know, usually I try
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: to back off on days like this because the uncertainty
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: is over the top.
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: Art, the uncertainty is over the top. But no, we
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: have some NBA moves. You know.
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: We took some Mavericks money at plus seven and a
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: half this morning they're playing the Spurs that's now six
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: and a half. Took some money on the Hornets at
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: plus three and a half for now two and a half.
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: Took some good over money on the Hawks very high
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: total two forty two. We're now two forty four and
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: a half. So you've seen a two and a half
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: point move there. When you go to the college basketball
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: ton of action this morning, they took Idaho at plus four.
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: They took cal riverside plus five and a half. They
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: took Abilene Christian plus thirteen and a half. They laid
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: three and a half with Marineck. They also took the
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: over in the Memphis game over one fifty three, the
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: under in the Denver game won sixty and a half,
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: and the under in the Campbell game one forty three and.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: A half, one forty three and a half.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: There you go, all right, some college basketball, NBA, NHL action.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: All right, Art, You and I got destroyed in our
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: partway of today.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Yesterday I knew I was. I was at the Panther game.
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: I should have just taken the Panthers last night to
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: won a great one in a shootout, but they tonight
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: you mentioned it. The Bruins were getting sharp love yesterday.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: Now they gotta hop on the road the Panthers and
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: go up to Tampa, a pretty big game. It's always
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: big between those two teams. You're getting any love one
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: way or the other. Are we fading the Panthers again tonight?
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: I mean Tampa will be very popular in the moneyline parlays.
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: And you know, outside of when we get our sharp
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: NHL action, most of our general public action in the
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: NHL is parlays. There's a lot of parlays, a lot
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: of people taking the two or three biggest favorites of
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: the day parlaying them with maybe the two or three
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: biggest favorites in the NBA.
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: So you get a lot of that.
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: You know what happens too if you know Tampa is
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: that type of favorite, maybe there's a little bit of
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: love of the three way. Yes, you know the sixty
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: minute so you know, obviously you pay a cheaper price there,
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: so maybe someone comes in and looks to take Tampa
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: on that type of angle.
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: What you should be doing is looking for the biggest
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: dogs of the night is what you should be doing,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: because inevitably you're gonna hit make some money on those.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: All right, parley of the day here art, So kick
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: us off? Here are you going?
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: NHL College hoops, NBA? What's your play for us here today?
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: I'm going NHL.
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna lay a minus one thirty five road favorite.
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: Ottawa goes to Philly to end this little stretch for
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: for the Olympics. Ottawa gets it done tonight.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: Wo Ottawa getting it done here tonight. All right, I
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: don't mind that one art actually at all.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: It's funny.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the NBA here tonight. You mentioned
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: the Hornets are getting some love, and they should be,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: although they just traded for some guys and all of
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: a sudden, you know, you got a winning streak and
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: now you got new faces in the locker room. That's
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: interesting there. But I agree also with the market on
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: the MAVs here because I do think the spar second
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: of a back to back never easy playing old case,
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: even though they've rested everybody. So I'm gonna follow suit.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the MAVs here tonight against the Spurs.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: I'll grab the points and Cooper Flagg is dropping thirty
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: five forty points a game like he knows what he's
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: doing here. Art should be very interesting moving forward. All right,
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: we are a set here art ready to roll. Of course,
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: we'll be back again tomorrow. You'll give us that final
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: installment for the Super Bowl odds. We'll see if anything
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: moves any of the big prop bet moves as well,
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: So enjoy it. Art, always a pleasure, the calm before
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: the storm. Get ready to pull that hair out, brother,
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: because you know they're all showing up there over the
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: next forty eight hours.
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: Yes, sir, listen, we'll have plenty to do tomorrow with
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: the obviously the Super Bowl, a lot more props, and
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: we are going to talk a little bit of MLB
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: win totals. We have seen some moves off of our
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: opening numbers, so we'll definitely do that tomorrow as well.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: All always a pleasure art this Caesar again. We'll see
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: him tomorrow with the final look into what's happening at
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: the book for the big Game on Sunday. More props,
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: of course, and all the latest information you need to know.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: Make sure you hit that like button, hit that subscribe
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: button if you haven't done so already. And of course
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: knowledge is power, which is what it is all about.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: And speaking of knowledge, let's bring in our good friend
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: mister double R one.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: L Steve Merrill in the house.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: Ready to go, All right, Steve, we got one more
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: leg of a parlay of the day. We need to
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: get from you. You were money on yours yesterday. Aren't
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: and I sucked. But he's got an NHL game, I
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: got an NBA game.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: What are you going to make a third leg with
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: for us here today?
• 16:51
  Speaker 5: Well, we'll go with the college basketball game to mix
• 16:53
  Speaker 5: it up a little bit show and I'm gonna look
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: at my neck of the woods. The CAA, the Colonial,
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: not the Colonial, the Coastal Athletic Siation still the CIA,
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: though as all their games not on Thursdays, they often do.
• 17:04
  Speaker 5: And I think the best team of the conference might
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: be Hostro. They were the highest rated team coming into
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: conference play and they just haven't performed as well as expected.
• 17:12
  Speaker 5: In fact, they had a five game losing streak that
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: they finally snapped with a sixteen point road win on
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: Saturday at Momoth. I think that might be the by
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: sign with Hofstra terrible Northeastern defensive squad. Tonight, I looked
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: for Hostra with a double digit win, lay the nine
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: and a half with Hofstra at that's at seven Eastern.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Woo, get it done.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: The pride getting it going here tonight. So there you
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: got it, guys. A little parlay of the day, we'll
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: drop in some of our favorite best bets of the day.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: We'll run down the NBA and college basketball for you
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: on this Thursday, but Merril, a couple of days away
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: from the big game, of course, Locked loaded over at
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: wager talk dot com. What do you got going on
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: for everyone here tonight? In fact, as in honor of
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: the press, it's always time for a little business.
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: Here, time for some business business in the front. It
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: can only imagine what the party in the back looks
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: like in that photo. Beware, beware what you asked for?
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: He said he's going to bring out other costumes when
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: he returns from his ski trip. That looks like a
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: ski bib a ste when it's like fifty or sixty degrees.
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: So hopefully he's got some nice cold weather because it's
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: better for skiing, but more importantly, it's better for the
• 18:23
  Speaker 5: other skiers not to have to see that outfit. We
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: do have a strong best bet tonight in the NBA,
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: also a strong college hoops play, and my Super Bowl
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: sixty best bet is locked and load. It's been up
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: there now for a week and there's still excellent line
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: value in my top play for Super Bowl sixties don't
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: sleep on that college basketball, Pro basketball, and the NFL
• 18:41
  Speaker 5: three plays tonight. Now you can buy him a la carte,
• 18:44
  Speaker 5: or of course you can get the super Bowl to
• 18:46
  Speaker 5: super Bowl special and get tonight free, and get Friday
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  Speaker 5: free and Saturday free, because when you buy the super
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: Bowl to Super Bowl you get the rest of this
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: week in advance for free. That works out to about
• 18:55
  Speaker 5: a dollar a play for every football, basketball and baseball
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: best bet for the next year plus. And oh, by
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: the way, Joe, we won again last night in the
• 19:02
  Speaker 5: NBA over a sixty two percent run the past couple months,
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: number one all the time in the NBA, justus smoking them.
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: I think it's now forty and twenty four run the
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: last couple months in the Association. Oh by the way, Joe,
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: bonus free play, which I'm not giving out here on
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: the show, a bonus free college basketball play for tonight
• 19:19
  Speaker 5: on Thursday on my page, So that reason alone to
• 19:21
  Speaker 5: go there. Get the daily free play, check out the
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: best bets and the special offers. Is also a by
• 19:26
  Speaker 5: ten days for the price of seven. If you want
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: something a little bit smaller, Steve Merrillwager Talk dot com
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: WT dot slash sm.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: Is the way to do it, Steve, All right, lockloaded guys,
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: four percent NBA, four percent college basketball, and our five
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: percent super Bowl max bet is available up at wager
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: talk dot com. Included a whole bunch of prop bets
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: that I like that you can go grab in that
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: play as well. But like Steve said, take advantage of
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: you know, the ten days for I mean the deals
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: they got going on at wage and Talk right now,
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: even super Bowl to super Bowl for ninety nine bucks
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: a month. It's all about a long term investment, guys.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: That's what it's always about here if you want to
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: go ahead and profit on a consistent basis. So we've
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: got plays locked and loaded ready to go there tonight, Marill,
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: why don't we start with a couple of best bets
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: we like to night? And something tells me you might
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: head back to your alma monta Cia. There, Am I correct?
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: Here? Where are you going for a best bet here today?
• 20:35
  Speaker 6: Yeah?
• 20:35
  Speaker 5: We're gonna stick in my neck of the woods with
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: more CAAA action here. And this is another situation in
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: which I think we get the better team, but unlike
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: the Hawks are playing, which I think we're getting a
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: team that's maybe gonna break out, got to win by
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: double digits. I'm gonna look at a better team focused
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: spot in a basic straight up win situation, and that's
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: what the Phoenix of Elon Elon University minus the one
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: one and a half see a little bit of a
• 20:59
  Speaker 5: two out.
• 21:00
  Speaker 6: There's some other ones one and a half.
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: So we'll say Elon minus one and a half is
• 21:03
  Speaker 5: the consensus number at Hampton seven o'clock Eastern. This really
• 21:06
  Speaker 5: is in my neck of the woods, closest game for
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: me tonight, and Hampton is mediocre at best. They're able
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: to hold their own occasionally in CAA action. But Elon's
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: the superior team here and this should be a focused spot.
• 21:18
  Speaker 5: As they're coming off a bad loss at home against
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: Stony Brook on Saturday. Keep in mind though they had
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: beaten Willm and Mary a couple nights earlier, big upset
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: home dog win against the Tribe, a game which they
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: trailed the majority of the game came from behind to win.
• 21:31
  Speaker 5: I think they just came in a little bit flat
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: last Saturday against Stony Brook. I look for them to
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: get back on track now well rested, short road trip
• 21:38
  Speaker 5: over the state border up to Virginia to play Hampton,
• 21:41
  Speaker 5: and there's also a matchup edge I like in this game,
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: which I'll talk about here with Elon. Elon's weakness is
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: they give up a lot of three pointers. First of all,
• 21:49
  Speaker 5: they're three point they give up almost as much as
• 21:51
  Speaker 5: any team in the country. About half the opponent's shots
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: come from three point range, and they don't defend it
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: well either. But Hampton is one of the worst three
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: point shooting teams in the country. It's not an understatement.
• 22:00
  Speaker 5: There are three hundred and sixty five teams in Division
• 22:03
  Speaker 5: one basketball and Hampton is shooting twenty eight percent from
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: three point range. That ranks three hundred and fifty sixth
• 22:10
  Speaker 5: out of three sixty five. So they are as bad
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: shooting the ball as anybody in the country. So I
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: don't think they can take advantage of Elon's weakness. Elon
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: the much better offensive team here, and I always like
• 22:20
  Speaker 5: good offenses on the road because they can score. And
• 22:23
  Speaker 5: I think Elon will be able to score at will
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: in this game from bus two and three point range
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: and they'll be focused tonight. Hey, straight up win situation,
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: good matchup with the better team. I like Elon minus
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: one and a half at seven Eastern.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: Woo elon getting it done here tonight. Love that, of course,
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: i'd want to say, as William and Mary Tribe are
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: also in tonight here bots. I am also going to
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: go Steve, I think in the college basketball direction, and
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: I am going to take a look at how about
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: Northern Arizona right now getting seven and a half. It's
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: a battle for the bottom of the Big Sky Conference.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: Huh watch a lot of Big Sky do you know
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: you don't Northern Arizona taking on Idaho State. Northern Arizona
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: sitting at eight and fifteen and oh yeah, by the way,
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: oh and nine in road games, however, they have been
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: an ATM machine. They have covered eleven games here in
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: Idaho State, by the way, is not killing people. Ten
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: and thirteen on a season. They are six and three
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: at home, but they've lost their last five games, and
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: the last four of them, by.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: The way, coming on the road here, hintint.
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: These two teams already played last month in Flagstaff, with
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: Idaho State barely winning eighty one to seventy nine. Bus
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: didn't cover the four and a half spread, So I'm
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: not quite sure exactly where we're getting this number from.
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: But shooting is not a problem for Northern Arizona. They
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: had forty seven percent from the field. They're almost close
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: to thirty eight percent from three point range.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: Now, I'll take the points Arizona.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: They may not win, but they are likely going to
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: keep this a very close game against Idaho State here tonight, Merril, huh, well,
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: big sky action, what do you think?
• 24:11
  Speaker 6: Yeah?
• 24:11
  Speaker 5: I like where you're going there, And it's funny. I
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: look at these two teams. They are two of the
• 24:15
  Speaker 5: worst defensive teams in the country in the three hundreds
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: in efficiency, and both offenses are actually like middle of
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: the packs. And like you said, they're not terrible offenses.
• 24:24
  Speaker 5: Yet the totals held steady around one two and a half.
• 24:27
  Speaker 5: You're thinking, oh, maybe an over. But then you look
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: at the tempo ratio of these two teams, Joe, they're
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: both in the three thirties. They're two of the slowest
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: half court teams in the country, so they both like
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: to play this slow style. They both have terrible defenses,
• 24:40
  Speaker 5: so makes sense why that total hasn't moved by to night.
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: So I think you're probably better off, as you said,
• 24:44
  Speaker 5: looking at the side. One thing I will point out,
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: Idaho State gets a lot of their points from the
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: free throw line and Northern Arizona. The one thing they
• 24:52
  Speaker 5: do well is not putting their opponent on the charity stripe, right,
• 24:55
  Speaker 5: So that does bode well for you as the big
• 24:57
  Speaker 5: dogs night.
• 24:57
  Speaker 6: Also, yeah, I'll.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: Take the points all day.
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: They guys, got a couple of best bets here for today.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: Don't forget to hit that like button, end to subscribe
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: button for you, Meryl. Before we dive into the NBA
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: college basketball rundowns, we'll cover a couple of games here
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: on the board the Super Bowl. Talk to Art earlier,
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: they are still holding strong.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: Four and a half and five.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: We are still He's up to forty five and a
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: half now for the total, still a lot of forty fives.
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: It appears not only Art, but a lot of the
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: guys in the risk rooms they feel over money is
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: still coming in here, but over the next twenty four
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: to forty eight hours. I guess the big question is
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: are we really getting over four and a half for five?
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, is it likely to go closer to New England,
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: closer to Seattle or are we looking at four and
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: a half or five one way or the other at this.
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: Point, Well, bet three six five, at least according to
• 25:58
  Speaker 5: the Odds Logic screen, is dealing a five five and
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: a half. Well, they're a little bit of a public book,
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: you know, so that's not a surprise, and they also
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: have been known to limit winners from what I've heard.
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: I don't want to disparage them here, but that's what
• 26:08
  Speaker 5: I've been told, so you know, that tells me once
• 26:11
  Speaker 5: again that Seattle is the public side, because the best
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: number I can find out here on the odds Logic screen.
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: By the way, I anybody like to try odds Logic
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: for free for seven days is a free link on
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: my page at wager talk dot com, and they do
• 26:22
  Speaker 5: have the props and everything, So it might be a
• 26:23
  Speaker 5: good weekend to try that free seven day trial because
• 26:26
  Speaker 5: you can look at all these numbers that Joe and
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: I are looking at. But I do see a five
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: and a half at bet three sixty five, which is
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: kind of the outlier of the Westgate. You know, Arts
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: mentioned that they're getting a lot of Seattle money. They
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: are standing at five, but a lot of books around
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: the world, including FanDuel and DraftKings, are four and a half,
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: but they're juiced minus one twelve minus one fifteen. So
• 26:43
  Speaker 5: if you like Seattle, the four and a half looks
• 26:45
  Speaker 5: like the way to go. And it's really actually hard
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: to find a four and a half flat anymore. There's
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: a lot of fives out there. Four and a half
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: juice if you like the Patriots. Probably not in a
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: hurry right now, maybe grab that five and a half.
• 26:56
  Speaker 5: But five is kind of a dead number, right So
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: do you possibly see a six with us outlier book,
• 27:01
  Speaker 5: you know, on Sunday? I guess it's possible. So I
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: think you played Seattle sooner than later. You played New
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: England later, And same thing with the over under. We're
• 27:09
  Speaker 5: seeing a few forty fives out there. The circa in Vegas,
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: a fairly sharp book, does have a forty five. Everybody
• 27:15
  Speaker 5: else pretty much has forty five and a halves. Hard
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: for me to imagine the public won't come in a
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: little bit on the over although, Joe, these are two
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: of the top defensive teams in the NFL, so I
• 27:24
  Speaker 5: don't know how that plays in the equation. Obviously, everybody
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: realizes that New England Denver game was kind of a junk,
• 27:29
  Speaker 5: low scoring game because you had a backup quarterback, you
• 27:32
  Speaker 5: had snow. The Seattle ram game was fairly open with
• 27:35
  Speaker 5: the scoring. I would expect that total to rise back up.
• 27:38
  Speaker 5: I think forty five will be the lowest total we
• 27:40
  Speaker 5: see any point this week.
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you. I think that's it. It
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: ain't gonna go any lower than that in this one here,
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: all right, guys, we got much more to get to here.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: We're going to start, of course with the n B
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: A Meryl and the NBA. Of course we are coming
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: up on at three o'clock Eastern time deadline.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: Where well, if.
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: You're still on the team at three on one Eastern,
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: while you're gonna be on the team, and it looks
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: like you're honest, will remain a Milwaukee Buck here, Meryll,
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: not not moving. I don't think he actually sees the
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: court again this season. I think they'll just shut him
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: down with the calf injury moving forward. But John Moran
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: still looks to be on a team here, Meryl, And
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: I'm shocked at Memphis hasn't been able to get rid
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: of them, because they have been shopping him for a while,
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: but they've lowered the asking price. Do you think he
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: remains in Memphis here after they've gotten rid of everyone else.
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: Why don't they package James Harden and John Moran. You
• 28:42
  Speaker 5: can have the worst two some trade in the history
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: of the NBA. I just don't get it. One thing
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: things jump out to me. Know, as handicappers, we look
• 28:48
  Speaker 5: at things differently, Joan, When you and I used to
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: do the NBA Show all the time a few years ago,
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: you know, Moran was hurt for half that season with
• 28:54
  Speaker 5: the Grizzlies, and the Grizzlies had a better record. They
• 28:56
  Speaker 5: were over seventy percent that year with him out of
• 28:59
  Speaker 5: the lineup on like thirty some games, right, So that's
• 29:02
  Speaker 5: a red flag for me. And you know, it's the
• 29:04
  Speaker 5: same thing like in college football. I remember, you know,
• 29:07
  Speaker 5: like RG three wins the Heisman at Baylor, he goes
• 29:10
  Speaker 5: to the NFL. He has a great rookie season, but
• 29:11
  Speaker 5: then the new quarterback at Baylor breaks all the records
• 29:14
  Speaker 5: or comes close or whatever. That makes you think it's
• 29:16
  Speaker 5: the system, right and not the player. And I've always
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: said Harden is vastly overrated for the same reason. We
• 29:21
  Speaker 5: joked about that yesterday, Like go have them Cleveland, you're
• 29:24
  Speaker 5: a contender team. I know they have to shake things up.
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: The Caves have underperformed this year, But Harden's not the answer.
• 29:30
  Speaker 5: The guy's all offense, no defense, and now he's aging,
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: his defense isn't getting better. And in playoff playoff time, Hey,
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: the Oklahoma City's under the best team in the NBA
• 29:38
  Speaker 5: defensively the last couple of years. We saw how dominant
• 29:40
  Speaker 5: they were last year. So I think Moran falls into
• 29:43
  Speaker 5: that same category. A great, flashy offensive guy, not a
• 29:45
  Speaker 5: good defensive guy. And there wasn't a lot of drop
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: off when he's been out over the years, So not
• 29:50
  Speaker 5: a surprise to me that they're having a difficult time
• 29:53
  Speaker 5: moving them. And I think there's also a little bit
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: of a concern with the mindset there as well. It
• 29:58
  Speaker 5: feels like he's wanted to be out of Memph for
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: several years, and I think that concerns what every team
• 30:02
  Speaker 5: picks him up, is he gonna want to be away
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: from your team, just like Harden kind of seems to
• 30:06
  Speaker 5: want to be away from his team every other year.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he is not a locker room guy. I mean,
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: it doesn't shock me at all that why would you
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: try to bring him in at this point in the
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: season if you're a contender. Good luck with that here.
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: But we do have some games that have seen quite
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: a bit of movement. We're also seeing a whole lot
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: of games here merrill with a huge, huge spread. So
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: let's go ahead and started off with that game up
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: at the top of the board with Brooklyn at Orlando. Listen,
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: Orlando at this point can't hit water if they fell
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: out of a boat.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: They are a hot mess, to say the least.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: But they are taking on a Nets team that specializes
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: in getting blown out here most of the week. It
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: opened up at eleven and a half. It's down to
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: nine and a half to total is creeping up a
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: little bit. Two fifteen's available. I can't think of a
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: worse team than the Magic to hope to cover by
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: margin here, not with my money. And the Pistons red
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: hot here, but they're laying two touchdowns against whatever the
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: Wizards are doing. I have no idea. All they're doing
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: is collecting a bunch of aging, overpriced veterans who can't
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: play it because they're hurt.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: Good luck with that.
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: But Detroit opened up as a seventeen point favorite, down
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: to fourteen and a half. You got the bulls who
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: made some trades there. Looking at the Raptors. Raptors, second
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: night of a back to back, tough loss for them
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: last night. They are laying eight and a half here tonight,
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: but no way, I'm sweating out an under in that game,
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: one way or the other. Jazz and the Hawks, Merril,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: we got the Hawks getting nothing but money here today.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: They're also laying close to double digits. They opened up
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: as a ten point favorite, but it looks like it's
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: creeped down a little bit. I'm seeing nines against that
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: new look Jazz team. Charlotte at Houston, it's kind of
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: gone back and forth. You're getting Charlotte money, you got
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: Houston money. Opened up in Houston at five. Now we're
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: seeing fours here. Charlotte red hot, Houston, second of a
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: back to back, third game in four nights. Not a
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: great spot for Houston. San Antonio and Dallas. We're starting
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: to see nothing but San Antonio money. Up to seven,
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. Why San Antonio just played OKC
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: last night. I like the way Cooper Flag is going
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: Golden State and Phoenix five and a half. Who's playing
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: for Golden State? To have no idea would be Phoenix
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: sur passed and the Lakers can't beat teams over five
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: hundred Merril, so I have absolutely no intention of betting
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: them tonight against the over five hundred Philadelphia seventy sixers.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: So which one of these games surprised you the most?
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: Some of these numbers Merril seventeen points for Detroit opened
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: up overnight is absurd.
• 32:54
  Speaker 5: Yeah, So I'm gonna do a double video here later
• 32:56
  Speaker 5: this afternoon, get as close to the trade deadline as
• 32:59
  Speaker 5: Possible'll probably put it a little bit before to make
• 33:01
  Speaker 5: sure nothing happens. But I will have two of those
• 33:02
  Speaker 5: national TV ands with the later games. I'll have a
• 33:04
  Speaker 5: Spurs Mavericks preview and also a Warrior Sun's preview on Prime.
• 33:08
  Speaker 5: People want me to do the Prime Games Joe on
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: Thursday because we went sixteen and three in the NFL,
• 33:12
  Speaker 5: so they're going to I'll do a video for that
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: Warriors Suns game. But, like you said, difficult to handicap
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: a lot of these games tonight, so I'll have some
• 33:18
  Speaker 5: info on that. Some of the other games you mentioned,
• 33:21
  Speaker 5: we'll look at those Wizards plus the fourteen and a
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: half fifteen. You know, they were so bad out of
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: the gate and they went on that run. They've still
• 33:26
  Speaker 5: covered for their last six and the Pistons are coming
• 33:29
  Speaker 5: off a win, so you know, it's not exactly a
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: huge focused spot for him. So not surprised to see
• 33:34
  Speaker 5: that line drop from the opener of seventeen. You mentioned
• 33:37
  Speaker 5: Orlando Brooklyn. That's such a low total. It's the lowest
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: total on the board, along with the Golden State Phoenix
• 33:42
  Speaker 5: game to fourteen and a half two to fifteen. But
• 33:44
  Speaker 5: what jumps out to me about that game Both Brooklyn
• 33:47
  Speaker 5: and Orlando they're playing terrible defense. Both have given up
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: over fifty percent in almost every one of their games
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: over the last couple of weeks, and yet the Magic
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: are on like a four to one underrun. Just wondering
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: if maybe we're getting some reverse ve value now with
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: the over in that game. So I'd actually take a
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: look at over two fifteen between Brooklyn and Orlando, two
• 34:06
  Speaker 5: bad defenses and live very low barrier to get up
• 34:09
  Speaker 5: and over And kind of talked about this yesterday. You know,
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: this time of the week, with the trade deadline approach
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: in the NBA All Star Game around the corner, got
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: to be careful for some of these games. When teams
• 34:17
  Speaker 5: aren't focused, I think that leads to less defense. More
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: offense and a playground mentality, so always looking for reasons
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: of playovers in some of these games. I think that
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: Brooklyn Orlando one might be a game that gets a
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: little higher score than people expect.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, even for Orlando, who who been a
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: rough go for them for sure. Meryl College basketball interesting
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: hard here tonight and it starts. I guess the biggest
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: name teams are going to be Penn State and Michigan, right,
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: but I mean twenty five and a half points and
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: hasn't really done much against Penn State tonight won sixty
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: one and a half, won sixty two. I know it's
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: a lot of points. I not exactly great and big
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: ten play, but my goodness, I mean Michigan just coming
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: off of at Michigan State win they beat Nebraska last week.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: Are we running to the wind out of late twenty
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: five and a half even against Penn State?
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: Steve, Yeah, Penn State's a really bad team this year
• 35:17
  Speaker 5: and they've obviously struggled to compete.
• 35:18
  Speaker 6: But it does look like a big number.
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: And here again, does Michigan care about winning by twenty
• 35:22
  Speaker 5: three or twenty seven?
• 35:23
  Speaker 6: Right?
• 35:23
  Speaker 5: It makes no difference to them, and they are coming
• 35:26
  Speaker 5: off the huge win against Michigan State last Friday night
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: National TV Top ten Battle on the Road and oh,
• 35:33
  Speaker 5: don't look now, but they've got Ohio State on the
• 35:35
  Speaker 5: road this Sunday. So this is a huge sandwich spot.
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: I'm not in a hurry to play bad teams, Joe,
• 35:41
  Speaker 5: and I think you know, they could easily win this
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: game by over thirty, and that's what kept me off
• 35:46
  Speaker 5: the game tonight. I'm not going to back Penn State.
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: They're a terrible team, but situationally, this does not look
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: like a great spot for Michigan. The concern though with
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: Michigan is they might not be able to help a
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: win by thirty because they had the number one two
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: point shooting offense and the number two two point defense
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: and Penn State has the tenth worst two point defense
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: in the country. Yep, So I mean Michigan State's gonna
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: be able to score it will down low here.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: Again.
• 36:10
  Speaker 5: I know people don't always have access to team totals,
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: but I think there's such a great way to play
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: college hoops, and there's a reason half the books don't
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: offer them because they're soft. Yep, I mean Michigan's team
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: totals around ninety three and a half in this game,
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: you know they probably cover if they get over ninety
• 36:25
  Speaker 5: three and a half. I guess Penn State's at like
• 36:27
  Speaker 5: sixty eight. But yeah, it's a terrible scheduling spot. But
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: I still want nothing to do with Penn State based
• 36:31
  Speaker 5: on this matchup.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: No, no, you can't. It's very hard to even consider
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: Penn State here. Say listen, Ohio State taking on Maryland.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: Same situation, Meryl. I've seen nothing but tickets on Ohio State.
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: But yet it's not moved a whole lot here right,
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: still seeing seven seven and a half, So little reverse
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: line freeze here is what we've got. I mean, somebody's
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: got to be backing Maryland. Otherwise this line I thought
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: would have been the eight and a half by now.
• 37:01
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I felt seven is kind of like the fair
• 37:03
  Speaker 5: number in this game. As I mentioned, Ohio State's got
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: that big look ahead to Michigan on Sunday, so we'll
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: see how they do in this one with that game.
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: They are coming off of loss to Wisconsin last Saturday, though,
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: so I think on the road once again AF a loss,
• 37:16
  Speaker 5: that should be a pretty focused spot. I don't think
• 37:18
  Speaker 5: they overlook this Maryland squad. Maryland's got one of the
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: worst three point defenses in the country. Ohio sted as
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: one of the best, but be careful with that. It's
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: kind of like turnover margins, you know, turnovers to side
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: football games. Three point shooting decides basketball games, and I
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: always feel like there's a little bit of random variance
• 37:34
  Speaker 5: with turnovers. Obviously, fumbles are very random interceptions. You know
• 37:38
  Speaker 5: some teams better than others. But I still think three
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: point shooting is a little bit of a random variable.
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: And you got the road team with the better three
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: point d only thirty percent of the year. They're probably
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: due to regress at some point, whereas Maryland has been
• 37:51
  Speaker 5: terrible all year, but they're at home. So here Again,
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: a little bit of a contrarian call maybe on Maryland,
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: but it's hard to make a case for them on paper.
• 37:57
  Speaker 5: They're definitely the weaker team at both ends of the court.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they are not good and one of the one
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: of Steve's all time favorites is listened. Low totals are
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: low for a reason. High totals are high for a reason,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: and the highest total lot of board tonight Meryll out
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: West with Northridge against cal Poly SLEW one seventy six
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: and a half won seventy seven. And it's high for
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: a reason because these two teams have never met a game.
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: They don't love to run up and down the court
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: and chuck it up there. But it's interesting because it's
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: almost a pick and price. Northridge is a slight road
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: favorite here against cal Poly.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: But the one thing we know, Merrill.
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: There are going to be possessions in this game, a
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: lot of them. There's gonna be a ton of shots
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: being chucked up. Yeah, at the high.
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: Don't be afraid of the high totals, right, They're high
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: for a reason.
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean that's why they go by cal Poly,
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: not cal Poly slow or because they play so fast.
• 38:55
  Speaker 5: You can't call them that. As I said earlier, three
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: hundred and sixty five teams in Division one men's basketball
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: crazy cal Poly second, cal State Northwidge third. These are
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: two of the three fastest up tempo teams in the country.
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: This total should be higher. This's a perfect example of that, Joe,
• 39:12
  Speaker 5: where I think that you know, the highest totals are
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: not high enough. There is zero chance this is not
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: a track meet. These are two of the top three
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: taste teams in the country, So it's not like one
• 39:21
  Speaker 5: of them is going to slow down the other one.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 39:24
  Speaker 5: And then you look at the matchup. Home teams normally
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: shoot the three better.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: YEP.
• 39:27
  Speaker 5: I don't necessarily like cal Poly in this game, but
• 39:29
  Speaker 5: they do have the fifth best three point They take
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: the fifth most three pointers in the country. Over half
• 39:34
  Speaker 5: their shots are from three point range, and cal State
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: Northridge gives up a ton of threes. They give up
• 39:39
  Speaker 5: almost half their shots from three, whereas cal State scores
• 39:43
  Speaker 5: more from two point range. So I think both teams
• 39:45
  Speaker 5: are getting their preferred offensive matchup as well. Yeah, I
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: definitely like the over in this one.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: If it ain't broke, don't fix it, are guys, it's
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: high for a raison. These two teams are going to
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: be flying up and down the court here tonight. So
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: they got a a couple of college hoops games for
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: you to keep an eye on, not the biggest names
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: on the card, but another big weekend just ahead in
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: college basketball, and of course Sunday as well. There Merrill,
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: you're gonna have a couple of NBA videos folks can
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: seek out here and check out on the on Wager
• 40:19
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• 40:23
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• 40:26
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• 40:29
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• 40:32
  Speaker 2: this up and ready to go. In the meantime, merrill
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: once again at your page at wager talk dot com,
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: lockedanloaded with what here tonight.
• 40:42
  Speaker 5: Yeah, we got that advanced super Bowl best better then
• 40:44
  Speaker 5: also one college one pro basketball. We cashed again in
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: the NBA last night on over a sixty two percent run,
• 40:50
  Speaker 5: number one all time in the NBA. So one college,
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: one pro and the Super Bowl play can get them
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: all individually tonight. But the best deal seven days, ten
• 40:58
  Speaker 5: days for the price of seven. It's like seven, but
• 41:00
  Speaker 5: you get ten ninety nine dollars. Or how about getting
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: a full month for ninety nine every month for just
• 41:05
  Speaker 5: ninety nine with the super Bowl to Super Bowl special
• 41:07
  Speaker 5: plus the rest of this week for free. Doesn't matter
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  Speaker 5: which package you choose. One day, one week, one year.
• 41:12
  Speaker 5: Everybody gets my personal best bets each day. Then that
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: way Joe for almost thirty years. This August will be
• 41:17
  Speaker 5: my thirtieth anniversary. This is a full time professional capper
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: and handicapper and sports better August of nineteen ninety six.
• 41:24
  Speaker 6: Joe Rniary is just finishing elementary school again thirty years ago,
• 41:29
  Speaker 6: and I looked it up.
• 41:29
  Speaker 5: Joe, how appropriate The traditional thirtieth anniversary gift.
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: Is pearls, Merle the pearl.
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: The modern there's a modern gift is diamond I mean,
• 41:37
  Speaker 5: how appropriate is that?
• 41:39
  Speaker 6: Right? That's what we're talking about.
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: It's taking money to buy some pearls and diamonds. Best
• 41:44
  Speaker 5: bets at wager talk dot com.
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: Get your pearls and you get your diamonds going here, guys, outstanding,
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: Happy anniversary, Meryl. I think I was just graduating in
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: the second grade, So that's impressive stuff there. Well done, guys,
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: don't forget. We'll be back again tomorrow a very special
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: Friday edition. Merril will be back. Art will be back
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: as well. We'll give you all the latest information you
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: need to know on all the sharp line moves, updates
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: across the board, on what's happening with the Super Bowl
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: odds and prop bets. In the meantime, guys, have a
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: hell of a night, enjoy it, Go get those best
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: bets up over at wager talk dot com, and we'll
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: see you again tomorrow on the Best betting show ever