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Inside the Data: Can The Eagles Stop A Jaguars Team That's Top-5 EPA On Offense AND Defense? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Hello, welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher. That is Sam Finkel. He's the man
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: with all the data and the analytics. And we are
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: going to preview this Eagles game across the pond against
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars in London in week five. And boy, this
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: has the makings of a real uphill battle for the Eagles,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: given all the injuries that they have. And it's never easy, Sam.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I've never been to London.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: Have you? I lived there, actually.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Oh, that's right. I remember you telling me that. You
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: lived there. So you know what it's like to get
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: on that flight and have to travel, and you're not
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: a professional athlete. You're not 6'8. You're saying I'm not
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: a professional athlete? I'm saying, I know, you were an athlete,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: just not a professional athlete. But I can only imagine
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: when you've got certain aches and pains what it's like
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: to be on that airplane for that long. Definitely. It
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: would be rough.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, and they were deciding to fly
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: out later, right? That was the strategy.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Well, earlier. No, no. Yeah, earlier. Friday, right after practice
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: is when they decided to fly out. Yeah. Sure. So
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: we'll see how that works. And, you know, Nick Sirianni
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: said he had studies, but we got our own studies.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: We are going to break down this game analytically as
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: we do every week.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: What a segue.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: I like that. I know, right? Perfect. So let's bring
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: up the charts and see what we got. As usual,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: we start off with the Monte Carlo model. that tells
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: us what the simulations say about who's going to win
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: and why. So what did you find out?
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: Well, first I found out that I'm probably going to
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: have to condense these because we're going to have a
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: different version each week. Maybe just do the highlights or
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: the percentage. But anyway, so the first model had it
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: at 58.1% equals win. And the iterations have changed and
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: now it's a 41.6% chance. Oh, just a 17% drop
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: in probability of win. That's all.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: And honestly, I think it should be lower. I really do.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: And we'll get into why, but I just, I, I
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: think this is a little optimistic.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah. You might be right. I mean, certainly this doesn't,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: it can't take into account the injury situation, correct?
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: It doesn't, it only takes into account, like, I guess
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: maybe part of it.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Well, it's sort of built in as in the Eagles
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: lost by a big margin against the Rams because they
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: had so many injuries. So, that loss margin factors in.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: Definitely. It factors in not directly, but it does indirectly.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: All right. Tell us about this Jaguars game against the Bengals.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Jaguars held their lowest win percentage in
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: the second quarter, 327, following a 10-yard pass from Joe Burrow.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: They were at a 47% chance of winning Jacksonville 6,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati 3. Burrow was then intercepted right after on the
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: same drive, flipping the game back in the Jaguars' favor.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Big, big interception there by Burrow.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he had two in the game, right?
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that one was the main one. Jags have been
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: good this year, 3-1. Didn't they have a win over
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: the Broncos, I think? So they've been pretty solid.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they have been. And, yeah, when we go to
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: the next segment, I mean, there's very few things– that
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: look optimistic.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I'll say, please do tell Sam.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, you look at the points per game
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: for one. I mean, the, the Jaguars are averaging 26
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: points per game. Eagles 18.8. You look, and then you
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: look at the point differential, which is even worse. Jaguars
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: plus 51, which is second in the league. And the
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: Eagles are minus 18, which is 23rd in the league.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Yikes.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: But then the gets even worse. I mean, we're going
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: to skip over record and close games. But average margin
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: of victory, 19.3 for the Jaguars, second in the league. Eagles, three, 25th.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: Then we talk about differential. Jaguars are plus six. Eagles
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: are minus three.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's Jaguars defense. We talked about laps. I mean,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: they're very well coached. They have good players. You know,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Travis Hunter is healthy. I saw you guys first pick
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. But like to your point
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: on the win margin, right? I think a lot of
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: people in week one were like, eh, okay, you beat
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: the Browns by 24. Like no big deal. And then
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: it's the Browns. Not only do the Browns actually have
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: a winning record, right? Or maybe they're 2-2. Either way,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: the Browns are better people.
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: I think they're on top of the– Yeah.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Then two weeks later, they smacked up the New
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: England Patriots. by 29 points. So like, or yeah, 29 points.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: So that's two pretty big blowouts there for them. So they're,
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: they're humming right now. Yeah.
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they are. And then you look at the Eagles
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: from an offensive standpoint from NFL pro they're passing efficiencies,
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: 28 rushing efficiency, 17th and their pressure rate allowing a
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: set 30th. And then the Jaguars defense flip side of that.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, their overall pass defense fifth, overall rush defense
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: 14th and pressure rate 14th.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Yikes. Yeah.
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Not great.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Movable force versus resistible object or irresistible object. Yeah.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, the thing is you look at their offense too,
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: and it's the same thing, just flip side, right? Their
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: overall passing efficiency and rushing efficiency are fifth and six,
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: relatively pressure rate 13. Look at the Eagles. It's 23rd,
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: 19th and 16th. So you see like a very average
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: Eagles defense versus a pretty elite Jaguars offense.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: So what you're telling me is there's not one single
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: category of these three, rushing, passing, and then pressure rate,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: that the Eagles' offense or defense is better than the
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Jags' offense or defense?
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you something worse. The next chart, which is
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: the advanced metrics, all also are that way. Oh, yikes.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: All right. Well, hey, the Jags are good, all right?
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: The Eagles are not so far. But let's go on
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: to those advanced metrics.
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's first talk about Eagles' offense versus Jags' defense, right?
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: EPA per play, Eagles are 27th with minus 0.18. Jaguars
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: are also– our defense is negative, which is a good thing, right,
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: on a defense, are minus 0.117. Then we look at
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: their pass offense. Eagles are tied for 28th. And by
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: the way, they're 30th. That fills up to the 30th spot.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: So they're tied for 28th, but there's only one or
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: two teams behind them. So I'm just saying that's not great.
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: You look at the Jaguars' pass defense, fit. I will
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: say that the rush defense, maybe there's a room. I mean,
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: they're both– the Eagles are tied for 17th in terms
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: of rushing offense, and the Jaguars are 17th in rush defense.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. It's not great. When we look
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: at DVOA, it gets significantly worse, which contextualizes it, which
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: is why I'm saying what I've been saying. You look
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: at the Eagles' offense for DVOA perspective. Minus 9.1%. They're
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: 19th in the league. You look at the Jaguars' defense.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: Minus 19.2%. Third in the league.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: It gets worse. I mean, again, when we're talking about
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: DVOA and passing and rushing, I talk about league rank.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: Eagles are 24th and 17th, respectively, in passing and rushing.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: So a bottom half team. You look at the Jaguars,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: they're 6th in passing DVOA, but 2nd in rushing DVOA.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: My God. When did Eagles-Jaguars become David versus Goliath? That's
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: what it is here.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, it could have been the other way. I mean,
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: a couple years.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Save the Bortles AFC championship run. Right. Yeah.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're humming there in Jacksonville. And it gets
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: just as bad when you flip it to the Eagles
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: defense versus the Jags offense. I mean, they're a top
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: four unit. They're top five unit in every statistic, but
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: in EPA, they're a top four unit, right? I mean,
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: they're third in EPA per play, third in EPA per pass,
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: and fourth in EPA per rush. Wow. Just in EPA. Eagles, 25th, 23rd, 26th.
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  Speaker 1: show and let them know we sent you. So you're
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: talking about a top five team in all these offensive
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: categories per EPA versus a bottom third team in all
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: these categories. That's damning.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: Yes. And then you look at the DVOA, which we
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: kind of like that statistic better because it's more contextual.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: Second in DVOA, third in passing DVOA, and fifth in
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: rushing DVOA. You look at the Eagles' defense, 22nd, 23rd, 19th. Yeah. Wow.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: You're right. I mean, the win percentage should probably be
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: a little lower.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying. It's definitely– look, the Eagles historically
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: have played up and down to the competition that they've
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: been playing. I feel like that's at least the sentiment
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: that I have and that most people have when they're
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: thinking of the Eagles. Sure. But this could scream danger.
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: For the Eagles season.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, honestly, the rankings and the statistics make
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: it appear as if the Eagles are walking into a buzzsaw.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: There's not one area, even with as good as the
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: defensive personnel that the Eagles have, there's not one area
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: where they have an advantage over the Jaguars.
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: Correct.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Kind of hard to believe. Wouldn't have thought that going
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: into the year.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: I would not have either. A little bit surprising. You know,
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: we didn't even factor in the injuries to either of
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: those statistics. Right.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: And the Jags, I think, are relatively healthy. There's not
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: even anything that you could say, well, at least the
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Jags won't have this guy or that guy.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no. This is– look, I mean, this might be
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: a game the Eagles win just because all odds defy them.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: But this is not a favorable matchup whatsoever. Yeah. And honestly,
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: I mean– Jaguars take over London, right? I think that's
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: their thing.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Oh, they're the London Jaguars, as you have in your
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: graph there with the little London background behind the Jaguars.
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: But the Eagles do travel well. So, I mean, who knows?
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: The neutral site is interesting to me. Because I think
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: if this game was in Jacksonville... But Eagles fans still
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: travel well. So it's hard to ever really give that
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: as much of an edge. But I just... This is
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: my least favorite one I've ever done. And it was
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: following that Rams game, which was the post-mortem of that
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: was my least favorite analysis. Yeah.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: All right. So what are the four keys from an
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: analytics standpoint to this matchup?
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, I probably, I wanted to keep that
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: template for like the future, but it's really just a
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: summary of what it is. I mean, look, it was
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: a 17% swing from the model, which originally had the
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: Eagles favored.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, the Eagles, Passing offense is minus 0.26 on
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: the season. And the Jaguars are fifth best. So it's
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: going to be– they're really good at creating turnovers. I mean,
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: that's something that we briefly discussed. But they're really good
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: at having turnovers. And the Eagles generally are pretty averse
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: to turnovers. But, I mean, we'll see what happens when–
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: we'll see what happens.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's maybe the best point as we
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: sum this up is that The Eagles stayed in the
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: game against the Rams because they created two early turnovers
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: that led to points for them. Took possessions away, led
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: to points for them, and that's what kept them in
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: the game because they were getting outplayed snap to snap
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: by the Rams. The Rams just were bad offensively, so
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: you give the Eagles defensive credit. But the Jaguars here
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: is the same thing. If you want to hang in
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: there with this team while you're undermanned and then try
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: to pull it out at the end like you had
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: a chance to do against the Rams, you cannot turn
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: the ball over because this is where they, this is
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: where the Jags thrive. This is how they win games.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: They create turnovers and create points off turnovers. So ugly
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: it up, but don't ugly it up from a favorable standpoint.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Try to get your run game going. Try to move
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: the ball methodically. Try to get your defense to show
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville some looks it hasn't seen and create some turnovers
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: to flip the field. Even if you turn them into
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: field goals and you get Jake Elliott out there four
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: or five times for 12 to 15 points, The point
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: is you're not giving the Jaguars free reign to just
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: go up and down the field all the time. Hey,
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  Speaker 2: And up Yeah. I mean, that being said, they have
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: been moving the ball really well on their own, but
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: don't give them any reason or shorter field and easier
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: chances to.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: So what is your prediction? Are you going to be
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: a coward again, Sam?
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: No, I'm not.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: I'm not.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: I think the Jags win this by a touchdown. I
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: think that maybe a little bit more, but touchdown Jags.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: I mean....
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: A 24-17 loss to the Jaguars, you might feel almost
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: like there's some progress, especially with the lighter part of
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: your schedule coming up. I don't know if I can
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: call the Panthers the light anymore. Not anymore.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: No.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: No, they can throw the ball around a little bit.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: And even the Cowboys are starting to do some– I mean,
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: they always give the Eagles trouble anyway, but their offense
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: is clicking. But it is still significantly lighter than when
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: you're facing the Rams and Jags and teams that are
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: considered top five.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: Top ten. And I know it's a little bit early
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: to talk playoffs, but most of the modeling has the
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: Cowboys winning the division right now, which just feels really bad.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: Even with the Giants at 3-1, they have the Cowboys favored,
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: which just feels awful. I hate to end a podcast
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: on that note.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: And what if the Giants win this week? I forget
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: who they're playing. I don't have it in front of me.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: I can look real quick. But they're at the top
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: of the division right now at 3-1. Right. And you
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: know they have a cupcake schedule in general because, you know,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: they were last place last year. In fact, if they win,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: they're playing the Commanders who have all sorts of.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: That's a huge game. That's a huge game for them. Yeah.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: This Commander's on their third string run? Oh, no, no.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: They might get Daniel's bat, right? Well, either way, it's
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: a winnable game no matter who because the Commanders aren't
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: very good either.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: So.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: You know what? We may have just stumbled upon a
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: nice little new segment, not new segment for every week,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: but for next week, what the probability is for each
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: team to win the division after five weeks.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that would be a really fun one
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: to throw in there next week.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: All right, sounds good. So you say the Eagles lose
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: by a touchdown. They are actually six-point underdogs, which is
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: I cannot remember the last time the Eagles were six-point
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: underdogs in any game. But that's the reality of the situation.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: The line might even keep going up based on more information.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: What do you think? I know you save it. I
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: know you save my pick, but you know, I picked
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: the Eagles to beat the Rams last week in the
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: pregame show. I was the only one. I don't know
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: why I'm patting myself on the back for that. I lost,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: but for a while there, I was like, I, I
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: who always get crap from my viewers and listeners for
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: always picking against the Eagles. Cause I will pick against
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: them from time to time, especially against a team that
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: you think that they're going, should be like, people get
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: upset for me for that, but then they'll wind up
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: losing the game and I'll look right. I picked the Rams.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: I just felt like something was going to happen, and
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: then it didn't happen. But I'll probably go with the
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Jags this week.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: I feel like that's– listen, I hate making that my analysis,
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: but I just– it's all the numbers suggest it's the–
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: and again, numbers don't play football. I'm sure we'll get
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: a comment or two to say that. And that's fair.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: They don't. Yeah. But I have to go off what
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: I've researched.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: Jaguars are rightfully so favored.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: They are. All right. We'll be back next week. That's
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: going to do it for this game preview edition of
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: Inside the Data. For Sam Finkel, I'm Jeff Mosher. Catch
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: you all on the next one.