Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - Wake & Bake: Bluebird 7 Confirmed on New Glenn, Tera Wave FUD

Transcript

Anpanman - Wake & Bake: Bluebird 7 Confirmed on New Glenn, Tera Wave FUD · AST SpaceMobile Podcast

• 0:06
  This is the AST Space mobile. Podcast.
• 0:11
  Just basically from the phone, be seamless, regardless of where
• 0:14
  you are. We don't want the user even to
• 0:16
  know that it's connected by satellite.
• 0:21
  Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
• 0:30
  Everyone, thanks for joining and good morning for another wake
• 0:33
  and bake. I actually like these formats
• 0:39
  because they're short. Often times if I if I don't have
• 0:42
  a time limit, then I just keep rambling.
• 0:43
  But but having these and having these quick updates on the daily
• 0:48
  basis or almost daily basis feels like the right type of
• 0:52
  format, at least for now, where it seems like especially as we
• 0:57
  have Catalyst season for Asds, it seems like having this type
• 1:01
  of format actually works quite well.
• 1:03
  But anyway, I did want to talk about some news that hit this
• 1:06
  morning. We officially are now launching
• 1:11
  Bluebird 7 aboard New Glen 3, Blue Origin, New Glen 3, which
• 1:15
  has been confirmed. And it looks like a more firm
• 1:19
  date will be set, but it's looking it like the end of
• 1:22
  February, which is great. And so I was just thinking about
• 1:27
  the timeline and how there's probably a pretty decent chance
• 1:30
  that Artemis is going to launch probably in the second-half
• 1:34
  February as well. And so we might be lucky as ASD
• 1:38
  space mobile shareholders to, you know, if, if Artemis goes up
• 1:42
  and then Blue Origin goes up within a 234 daytime frame, you
• 1:47
  might be able to see both, which is pretty amazing.
• 1:49
  And so seeing our first mission to the moon where I believe, and
• 1:54
  correct me if I'm wrong, I might be wrong on this, but I think
• 1:58
  we're sending some astronauts to go orbit the moon and come back.
• 2:01
  And then of course, the mission after that will be landing on
• 2:04
  the moon. But, but you'll have that on
• 2:07
  board. And then you've got New Glenn,
• 2:09
  which is Blue Origins, you know, pride and joy attempting its
• 2:13
  third launch. And it will be taking a special,
• 2:16
  special payload, which is Bluebird 7.
• 2:19
  As we all know, Bluebird 6, which is FM 1 and Bluebird 7,
• 2:24
  which is FM 2 are SDA Halo satellites.
• 2:28
  And so it makes sense that New Glen take up this satellite in
• 2:33
  particular, just given that New Glen is or Blue Origin is trying
• 2:37
  to get certified for Department of Defense work and this will be
• 2:40
  their third successful launch. They need to do one more in
• 2:43
  order to meet the the four launches for requirement.
• 2:47
  So this is a huge event 'cause you have a new launch vehicle,
• 2:53
  there's gonna be a lot of fanfare and you've got our new
• 2:55
  satellite going up as well. And so the company did mention
• 3:00
  that there will be a process as previously with the Block One
• 3:04
  launch, there probably will be a sign up and then they'll select
• 3:07
  few people. I'm not sure how that works, if
• 3:09
  it's a lottery or if they actually dig in and select who's
• 3:12
  coming. But for Block one launch, they
• 3:15
  pretty much, you know, it took several rounds, but they pretty
• 3:18
  much invited everybody who applied.
• 3:20
  I don't know of anybody who applied who didn't get an
• 3:24
  invite. But then I think for this
• 3:26
  launch, it will be a bit rationed.
• 3:29
  There's probably, my guess is that they'll probably be half
• 3:33
  the people from ASD Space Mobile there.
• 3:35
  And the reason why that is, is that for Block 1, you know, we
• 3:39
  were aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9. And because it's a very typical
• 3:46
  event for SpaceX folks, not many people show up from SpaceX.
• 3:50
  Whereas for this event, I would expect a tremendous number of
• 3:54
  Blue Origin guests, whether that's folks from the company
• 3:57
  or, you know, Department of Defense officials, government
• 4:00
  officials. So I think it's probably, my
• 4:04
  guess would be maybe a third Blue Origin folks and 2/3 space
• 4:09
  mob or it could be half, half. So we'll see.
• 4:12
  But as a reminder though, you don't need to go, you know, you
• 4:16
  don't need to be part of the formal event and, and have a
• 4:19
  seat at the, the viewing, the viewing area.
• 4:23
  You can go to anywhere in the Cape and you'll be able to see
• 4:27
  the rocket launch because it's visible for several miles.
• 4:30
  And so I'd encourage people, if you do have the time, there's
• 4:33
  nothing quite like it to see a launch, especially something
• 4:37
  where you're so heavily invested.
• 4:39
  It's, it's a, a weird mix or fun mix of excitement, joy, anxiety,
• 4:45
  and you know, a number of other things.
• 4:48
  But yeah, this, this launch will be pretty awesome event.
• 4:55
  And yeah, I'm looking forward to it.
• 4:59
  Oh, looks like all right. Sorry I had to, I had to turn
• 5:05
  off a message that I was getting.
• 5:07
  But I do want to do put a shout out to Space Mob.
• 5:12
  You know, I, I think this is just another demonstration of,
• 5:16
  of the unparalleled due diligence that that we have in
• 5:19
  the community. And so as early as I think it
• 5:24
  was early fourth quarter last year, based off of a number of,
• 5:28
  you know, different work that people were doing, we started to
• 5:32
  speculate that FM 2 was going to go aboard Blue Origin, New Glen
• 5:36
  3. And so and you know, our
• 5:39
  confidence factor went up over over the next few weeks and, and
• 5:42
  obviously by by the end of last year, we were almost 100%
• 5:47
  confident that was going to be New Glenn.
• 5:49
  And so it's great to see that our due diligence paid off and
• 5:52
  that satellite is going aboard New Glenn 3.
• 5:56
  And so, you know, I, I would say if you're an investor in ASD
• 6:01
  space mobile, it's important to become part of the community and
• 6:05
  be active because there's a tremendous amount of information
• 6:08
  and wealth of knowledge, whether that comes from Katsi or Kook or
• 6:13
  Tut or Kevin Chen, Tanner, Red Rum.
• 6:17
  I mean, there's a whole host of people actually, I was thinking
• 6:20
  maybe I'll put out a list of, you know, accounts to follow,
• 6:23
  which is not going to do it justice.
• 6:26
  But I think for new investors, it probably helps to have a list
• 6:30
  of various people to follow if you want to stay plugged in.
• 6:34
  But the reason why, you know, I mentioned this is that even as
• 6:38
  of yesterday, you know, we had which I think was partially AI
• 6:43
  slop driven, but you had this scare around Blue Origin terror
• 6:47
  wave where maybe some headlines got got picked up and then the
• 6:51
  stock starts selling off. I mean, obviously the space
• 6:53
  sector was off, but then the stock started becoming very,
• 6:56
  very heavy on concerns that somehow this Blue Origin, Terra
• 6:59
  Wave was going to be competitive at AST, which it clearly isn't.
• 7:04
  For those that don't know, Blue Origin announced that they are
• 7:07
  going to put up a consolation called Terra Wave and it's going
• 7:11
  to be focused on high end enterprise and data center and
• 7:14
  government customers. And so this is, you know, high,
• 7:18
  really high throughput satellites that are going to be
• 7:20
  in low Earth orbit and medium Earth orbit.
• 7:23
  And we're talking about symmetrical download and up
• 7:25
  split load speed. So symmetrical meaning exactly
• 7:28
  the same for, for their RF, which, you know, radio
• 7:31
  frequency, which they're using Q&V band, that's going to be 144
• 7:35
  gigabits per second. And then further optical links
• 7:39
  that will be 6 terabits, which is pretty crazy.
• 7:43
  So this product is actually positioned at the very high end.
• 7:46
  It's not, you know, utilizing QV band spectrum or optical that
• 7:52
  certainly cannot communicate to mobile phones, nor will it ever
• 7:56
  because QV bands you need the exact Direct Line of sight and
• 8:00
  high power to make that connection.
• 8:02
  And so it's not anywhere close to, you know, cellular spectrum
• 8:06
  or MSS spectrum. And then of course, optical.
• 8:10
  I don't foresee anyone using optical links from your phone to
• 8:14
  do a satellite that that would be pretty crazy too.
• 8:17
  I think. I think Mega Consolation wrote
• 8:19
  about this announcement yesterday saying that the way
• 8:23
  that the satellites are going to be architected and what they're
• 8:25
  claiming, at most you're going to only each satellite will only
• 8:29
  serve maybe a handful of customers at a time because
• 8:32
  that's a huge, tremendous amount of throughput.
• 8:34
  And So what I think this and Catsy started, you know, coming
• 8:38
  on to this pretty early because Catsy's Catsy be given that
• 8:42
  there will only be a handful of customers that connect to these
• 8:45
  satellites at any time. And that the satellite can
• 8:48
  communicate to a customer via QV band, which happens to be the
• 8:53
  exact bands we're using our satellites and our our antenna
• 8:59
  can actually that that stick out from the satellite that
• 9:02
  communicate with the ground stations.
• 9:05
  They can actually point back up into space.
• 9:07
  And so there is some speculation that is part of Golden Dome,
• 9:13
  maybe perhaps Terra wave, it will become kind of the backbone
• 9:16
  data layer. And then our satellites, whether
• 9:20
  it's the dual source, dual use case, you know, composite
• 9:24
  satellites or perhaps more specialized government
• 9:26
  satellites, they will interface with Terrawave and then
• 9:31
  obviously do their job on the defense application.
• 9:34
  So whether that's radar sensing to pick up missile that launches
• 9:39
  or detection or also, you know, following those missiles, but
• 9:43
  also, you know, doing PNT position navigation, timing.
• 9:47
  And then of course, the the ability to do electronic
• 9:54
  warfare, whether that's spoofing, jamming, you know, all
• 9:56
  those things. And then of course, you know,
• 9:58
  providing communications to war fighters on the ground, drones
• 10:02
  and other assets. So that speculation, you know,
• 10:06
  Cassie kind of put out there yesterday.
• 10:08
  And as I've mentioned before, never fade Cassie's due
• 10:12
  diligence because he's often times right in, you know,
• 10:17
  drawing lines between the dots and putting the puzzle pieces
• 10:21
  together. And so I thought that was a very
• 10:24
  interesting call out by him. And I think I encourage people
• 10:28
  to read his post about it. But but yeah, it's, I think to
• 10:33
  me when that news came out and they were talking about using
• 10:36
  optical links and QV band for feeder, and sorry, not for
• 10:41
  feeder, but for uplink and downlink, that really stood out
• 10:44
  to me because that that doesn't, you know, you're looking at
• 10:48
  customers on the ground needing a very strong antenna, one that
• 10:52
  can move to track the satellite for QV band.
• 10:55
  And so that seems like a pretty odd, you know, odd spectrum to
• 11:01
  use. However, if it's providing
• 11:04
  backbone connectivity to other satellites, that makes actually
• 11:08
  a ton of sense. So yeah, I encourage people to
• 11:11
  take a look and read Kathy's speculation on that.
• 11:15
  The other thing I, I will say, I was looking at the charts that I
• 11:21
  had laid out, I think it was in December, about how AST had been
• 11:24
  following, and I'm not a chart person, but AST had been
• 11:28
  following this like 123 impulse pattern where it would, it would
• 11:32
  spike up, it would come back a little bit and then would spike
• 11:34
  even higher and come back a little bit, spike back up, but a
• 11:37
  little lower level and then it would cool off.
• 11:39
  And so we had seen this like maybe four times before, which
• 11:44
  is pretty interesting that it was following this pattern.
• 11:47
  However, this current pattern has completely obliterated that,
• 11:52
  right? And so just taking a look here,
• 11:55
  if you look at the chart, we've already hit like 3-3 impulse,
• 12:02
  you know, I guess impulse moved up and then, but we keep moving
• 12:07
  higher, right? And so each one is bigger than
• 12:09
  the previous one. And so I'd mentioned this
• 12:11
  before, but I, I think because we're in this interesting period
• 12:15
  where one, we now are tasked with pursuing business for
• 12:20
  Golden Dome. So that changes the actually the
• 12:23
  entire story of the company, especially for people that are
• 12:26
  unfamiliar with it. And then on top of that, you've
• 12:29
  got now what previously was, you know, one launch and then you'd
• 12:32
  kind of have to wait for a few months or year for the next
• 12:37
  launch. Now we're in this sweet spot
• 12:40
  where we're having launches every month, month and 1/2,
• 12:45
  right? And so I think that that pattern
• 12:48
  that we had seen before is, is pretty much going to be or is
• 12:51
  broken. And, and I talked about this
• 12:54
  yesterday where I think the setup is pretty bullish for the
• 12:59
  rest of the next few months because we are now heading to
• 13:02
  this period where as some of you saw, you know, Elon Musk is now
• 13:06
  targeting for SpaceX to go public by July of this year.
• 13:11
  And so as people, you know, as institutional investors do their
• 13:16
  work and get smart around space ahead of that IPO, because no
• 13:21
  one's going to, you know, no one is going to participate in the
• 13:23
  IPO without having some level of research and, and understanding
• 13:27
  sector and competitive dynamics and who the players are.
• 13:31
  That's going to bring a whole swath of new investors and
• 13:33
  interest into space. And of course you're going to
• 13:35
  have speculators too, who, you know, the playbook is like you
• 13:39
  own the sector when the marquee company goes public, right?
• 13:43
  Because everything kind of appreciates just given that
• 13:45
  there's more interest and more investment dollars going into
• 13:48
  the sector. And so we've got this
• 13:51
  interesting mix where for ASD Space Mobile, we're on this path
• 13:54
  of commercial launch. We've got for the, you know,
• 13:58
  there's some people who've asked, does what does this mean
• 14:01
  that batch 1 and batch 2, you know, there's 33 Bluebirds that
• 14:06
  will go up on a Falcon 9 launch and then shortly after that
• 14:09
  another batch. I think there's actually a good
• 14:12
  chance that we might see one of those batches get shipped down
• 14:17
  to the Cape and get launched maybe simultaneously or, or
• 14:22
  pretty close to the origin New Glen.
• 14:25
  But we'll see. But I, I at least I think in
• 14:29
  this, I guess in, in this coming week or perhaps next, as late as
• 14:33
  next week, we'll probably see one of those batches of three
• 14:36
  shipped down to the the Cape. And I'd mentioned this before
• 14:40
  there, you know, SpaceX has a bit of a backup because I think
• 14:45
  there's only like 1 pad that's running right now.
• 14:47
  And so there's been a bit of a traffic jam to integrate new,
• 14:50
  new payloads into fairings. And so there is a little bit of
• 14:54
  a delay there. But after New Glen launches, I
• 14:57
  would expect that the first batch of three on SpaceX Falcon
• 15:01
  9 will probably go up shortly after, maybe a week or two
• 15:05
  after. And then after that you'll have
• 15:07
  another one right where I think we're probably going to be
• 15:10
  cutting it close for the companies target of five orbital
• 15:14
  launches by the end of March. You know now we're with this
• 15:18
  Blue Origin new Glen that's two and then you probably have
• 15:22
  another batch of two coming shortly thereafter.
• 15:25
  And so will they be able to get that fifth one in just prior to
• 15:28
  March end or or sometime shortly after?
• 15:30
  We'll see. But as we've always talked about
• 15:35
  a few weeks here and there, a few months here and there is not
• 15:37
  a big deal because it's inevitable, right?
• 15:41
  When we talk about ASD space, mobile and service rollout,
• 15:44
  it's, it's all a matter of time, but and it's inevitable.
• 15:49
  And so thinking about the dynamics of trading in the stock
• 15:55
  and the catalysts that are coming up heading into SpaceX
• 15:59
  $1.5 trillion IPO in July, I think it's setting up very well,
• 16:05
  right? You might have this perfect
• 16:09
  storm of ingredients where the company is going to be
• 16:13
  catapulting these satellites up into space.
• 16:17
  And so if you're short, that's that's bad, right, because
• 16:20
  you've got ongoing catalyst. You know, whether the company
• 16:25
  gets starts getting some Golden Dome awards through their
• 16:29
  through Shields or as we speculated and and don't fade
• 16:33
  space mob, but we speculated that they will get an award via
• 16:39
  noble as well, which is part of Golden Dome.
• 16:42
  And so you've got a number of different catalysts that are
• 16:44
  happening on top of the fact that interest in space is
• 16:48
  heating up. And so I do think there is this
• 16:52
  chance and I put on some risk yesterday to express this with a
• 16:57
  pullback in the stock. But I, I think there's a good
• 17:00
  chance that, that the stock price performs heading into
• 17:04
  July, you know, much better than any of us expected or can
• 17:10
  imagine, right? And so, you know, I talked about
• 17:13
  the end of the year possibly being, I think it was like 2 or
• 17:16
  $300 that could happen sooner than than we expect, right?
• 17:20
  Because of, again, those ingredients that go into, you
• 17:25
  know, the, the company's catalyst.
• 17:27
  And then you've got that IPO for SpaceX coming up, right?
• 17:31
  And so I think there is going to be a lot of interest and a ton
• 17:34
  of articles written. I've hinted at this before about
• 17:37
  one of the largest financial publications is currently
• 17:42
  writing a story about space mob in particular and AST space
• 17:46
  mobile. And so this type of stuff is
• 17:49
  going to, you know, this news is going to draw more attention and
• 17:54
  increase awareness and have a fun story.
• 17:57
  I, I bought a, a bit of real estate here in New York recently
• 18:03
  and I had closing, I guess it was 2 days ago.
• 18:06
  And the buying attorney, who I've known for a really long
• 18:10
  time, you know, but I haven't seen him in years.
• 18:13
  He showed up. And then of course the, the
• 18:15
  seller attorney showed up. The seller didn't show up
• 18:17
  because they had their attorney to execute the deal via power of
• 18:22
  attorney. But anyway, I was wearing my
• 18:23
  space mob jacket and then these two gentlemen who are older than
• 18:27
  me asked about it. And then, you know, I'd spent
• 18:30
  about 5 minutes talking about AST Space Mobile.
• 18:34
  And it was weird. Like they immediately understood
• 18:36
  it. They, they totally got it.
• 18:37
  And one of them actually had T-Mobile and said, hey, that
• 18:41
  we've had this satellite service, but it's, it's
• 18:43
  terrible. And so when I explained to him
• 18:45
  what AST Space Mobile is and how it's working with AT&T and
• 18:49
  Verizon and how it'll be seamless in this broadband, this
• 18:53
  gentleman is spends quite a bit of time out in Long Island and
• 18:57
  he's actually moving to Austin. And so so yeah, they both, they
• 19:01
  both were like asking me what the ticker was and, and I'm
• 19:05
  pretty sure like they probably ended up buying shares this
• 19:08
  week. So yeah, it's just kind of
• 19:11
  funny. Like you, you tell people about
• 19:13
  the and you know, I, I didn't discuss the defense use case at
• 19:17
  all. I just talked to the commercial
• 19:18
  side and immediately they understood and we're interested
• 19:21
  in buying shares. And so, so, yeah, I think that
• 19:23
  dynamic is going to be there for this, this what we'll call, you
• 19:28
  know, the endless rally for, for the months leading into summer.
• 19:32
  And so I'm pretty excited about that.
• 19:34
  And I think, you know, yesterday I, I, I rarely do this, but I
• 19:38
  shared like the fact that I bought 5000 shares when the
• 19:41
  stock dipped to 198 or, and 98 or so.
• 19:46
  That's, I think I bought some shares at 1:01 and then I bought
• 19:49
  the rest of it 98. And then I, I put on 250 of
• 19:53
  these July, I mean this is highly speculative and whenever
• 19:57
  you do options just assume that you've written them off to 0.
• 20:00
  But I bought 15180 call spreads And so those were I think I paid
• 20:06
  like $3.80 to as high as $4.20, but that's where a spread that's
• 20:13
  $30.00, right? And so if by expiry.
• 20:17
  The stock goes above 180 or so, you have the maximum profit
• 20:21
  potential of $30 X and then you got to take out, you know, what
• 20:24
  you paid, which is 3 to $4.00. But but yeah, over the next few
• 20:30
  months, like I'm probably going to look to add risk as we we
• 20:34
  pull back. You know, obviously the company
• 20:35
  is very volatile and if you have AI headlines or people pushing
• 20:40
  whatever narratives the stock or, you know, the stock just
• 20:43
  trades with the sector, you'll have opportunities to, you know,
• 20:48
  for me, I have a, a core holding that I never touched.
• 20:50
  But then there is a, a certain amount of capital that I set
• 20:54
  aside and I do more speculative trading because just given how
• 20:58
  volatile AST is and to keep myself entertained into some of
• 21:03
  these trades. So anyway, but yeah, that
• 21:05
  that's, that's what I did yesterday.
• 21:07
  But I, I do think as I said before, I, I do think we're
• 21:10
  setting up for a really great summer and the months leading
• 21:14
  into that are going to be tremendous.
• 21:15
  And so the key thing of course is for the company to execute.
• 21:18
  You know, it was disclosed recently in FCC filing that the
• 21:23
  company is now at a production cadence of $6 per month.
• 21:26
  And so, so yeah, this we, we are going to have a actually, let me
• 21:31
  take a look here when it's expected we'll have AQ four
• 21:37
  call. So we are going to have AQ four
• 21:40
  call probably at least Bloomberg's predicting early
• 21:44
  March, so March 3rd. Let me just see what it was last
• 21:47
  year. Yeah, so last year it was March
• 21:52
  3rd as well. And so that will be a great
• 21:55
  earnings update because you know obviously by then we probably
• 22:00
  will have one or two batches of three satellite chip down to the
• 22:04
  Cape for launch. And then by that time as well,
• 22:07
  we'll have had Blue Origin take up BB7.
• 22:12
  And so that earnings call will be jam packed with information.
• 22:17
  You know, I'll be discuss things around new Golden Dome and, and
• 22:22
  any and, and also probably by that time, my guess is we'll
• 22:25
  probably have another definitive agreement with the customer.
• 22:28
  So, so yeah, definitely looking forward to that.
• 22:30
  Anyway, I'm going to wrap up that part of this morning, which
• 22:34
  is AST Space Mobile, Avast Red Rum to, if he can, to put these
• 22:39
  in the podcast. So that first section is done.
• 22:42
  That's AST and we'll catch up again soon.
• 22:45
  I'm going to move over very quickly to T1 Energy.
• 22:48
  So if you're not interested, you can drop off now.
• 22:52
  Thanks for listening to the AST Space Mover podcast.
• 22:55
  If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the
• 22:58
  podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social
• 23:02
  media, or leave a rating and review.
• 23:04
  To catch all the latest news about AST Space Mobile, make
• 23:08
  sure to subscribe. Thanks again and I'll see you
• 23:11
  next time. We're doing something very, very
• 23:16
  big and I think with this technology we can really affect
• 23:19
  a billion lives. AST Space Mobile is the only
• 23:22
  company that has full technology to deliver several mobile
• 23:27
  connectivity directly from space to do everyday smartphone.
• 23:31
  People will just basically turn their phone be seamless,
• 23:35
  regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to
• 23:37
  know that it's connected by satellite.
• 23:40
  Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership
• 23:44
  with the MMO Listen. Waffles.