Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 15 with Scooch and Simon Hunter

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NFL Week 15 with Scooch and Simon Hunter · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast. I am the hottest
0:16
Speaker 1: better in the world, no joke, the hottest better in
0:20
Speaker 1: the world, having the greatest season in the history of betting.
0:25
Speaker 1: Uh that anyone has publicly talked about. I don't even
0:29
Speaker 1: know what to say. And if you aren't following me
0:32
Speaker 1: in two, are following two fifty six or bust in
0:37
Speaker 1: the Action Network Gap You can download it for free.
0:39
Speaker 1: Follow me you will see everything that I'm talking about.
0:43
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about this a lot during the show today.
0:45
Speaker 1: I can guarantee it, because I cannot stop thinking about it.
0:48
Speaker 1: Later on in the show, Simon Hunter is coming on.
0:51
Speaker 1: He's a professional better and he's been helping me and
0:53
Speaker 1: Darren Ravel all season long make our five picks for
0:56
Speaker 1: the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest, in which we're trying
0:58
Speaker 1: to win one point five million dollars. And I have
1:01
Speaker 1: not been paying attention to that. But Simon sillily, sillily
1:07
Speaker 1: texting me this weekend and said, listen, if we finished
1:10
Speaker 1: three and two for the rest of the year, Uh,
1:13
Speaker 1: we're going to finish in the money. And I said
1:15
Speaker 1: to him, do not tell me that I haven't checked
1:17
Speaker 1: all year one game, one pick at a time. That's
1:21
Speaker 1: how I live. Um, But now I know this in
1:24
Speaker 1: the back of my head, and it's gonna screw with me.
1:27
Speaker 1: We were four and one last week in the Super Contest.
1:29
Speaker 1: It's like, seriously, I am gold right now. I am
1:33
Speaker 1: not afraid to say it. I am not mush. You
1:36
Speaker 1: cannot stop me. Bob Scucci, bookmaker for the or Leans
1:39
Speaker 1: and all the boy gaming books around the world. He
1:41
Speaker 1: is the bookmaker of the world. He's joining us right now. Dude,
2:01
Speaker 1: I am honored to be on the show with the
2:03
Speaker 1: hottest better in the history of sports betting. You know
2:07
Speaker 1: you joke, you mock. I know you understand. You're on
2:12
Speaker 1: fire Man. Seriously, Seriously, here's the thing. I was six
2:17
Speaker 1: and ten the week before, and there was a point
2:21
Speaker 1: on Sunday when I was looking at these games. I'm
2:23
Speaker 1: watching Red Zone, and you know they they flash like
2:26
Speaker 1: the scoreboard for red Zone at the end of the
2:28
Speaker 1: first quarter when a lot of the games have reached
2:29
Speaker 1: the end of the first quarter. I forgot how many
2:31
Speaker 1: games they were. They're probably I don't know, probably nine
2:34
Speaker 1: or ten games early yesterday, maybe nine games on Sunday.
2:36
Speaker 1: I mean, and I looked and I think I was
2:39
Speaker 1: losing every game, and I'm like, oh, it's going to
2:42
Speaker 1: be such an ugly day. And then I turned it around,
2:45
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, I looked on like the
2:47
Speaker 1: games that I was really gonna lose, I had a
2:49
Speaker 1: chance to push. I had a chance to push. The
2:52
Speaker 1: Bucks game, I had, like even the Browns Bengals that
2:57
Speaker 1: I was under forty one in the final it I
3:00
Speaker 1: had a chance, you know it sixteen and then there
3:03
Speaker 1: was just some flukiness, but like I had a shot, yep, yep,
3:10
Speaker 1: And uh that's how they go. And that's why it's
3:13
Speaker 1: important to get that number you talking about, you know,
3:15
Speaker 1: the difference of taking three or two and a half
3:19
Speaker 1: and then game falls three. It makes all the difference,
3:21
Speaker 1: makes all the difference in the world. Do you think
3:24
Speaker 1: do you believe in most Do you believe in jinks?
3:26
Speaker 1: Do you believe in karma? Do you think I'm screwing
3:28
Speaker 1: it up by talking about it today? It's funny. I
3:32
Speaker 1: don't really believe in it. But I mean, I I
3:36
Speaker 1: wear the same pair of socks on the Super Bowl Sundays.
3:39
Speaker 1: I've got my favorite pairs, But yet I don't believe
3:42
Speaker 1: in it. Isn't that funny? There's a I love The
3:45
Speaker 1: West Wing, the show The West Wing. It's one of
3:46
Speaker 1: my favorite shows of all time, and I've watched probably
3:49
Speaker 1: every episode seven or eight times, just running through on
3:51
Speaker 1: a Netflix. And my older son, who's sixteen, for Father's Day,
3:57
Speaker 1: one of the gifts he gave me was he would
3:58
Speaker 1: watch five episodes The West Wing with me, and I
4:01
Speaker 1: knew if I got him for five, i'd get him
4:03
Speaker 1: for all of them. So of course we're cycling through
4:06
Speaker 1: and he's loving it, and um, there's a scene in
4:09
Speaker 1: one of the episodes where Jed Bartlett, who was played
4:12
Speaker 1: by Martin Sheen as the President, UM, is supposed to
4:16
Speaker 1: do a photo op with a guy who has shaken
4:18
Speaker 1: hands with every president since Herbert Hoover. And it just
4:22
Speaker 1: so happens that the president got in some news about
4:26
Speaker 1: a big company going belly up and it was going
4:28
Speaker 1: to have a massive impact on the stock market, and
4:30
Speaker 1: the market was always cratering. It was down like four
4:33
Speaker 1: or five points, and uh, the next day he needed
4:38
Speaker 1: it to open big, so like it didn't create her
4:41
Speaker 1: into a further recession for the economy. And this guy
4:45
Speaker 1: who shook Hoobert Hoover's hand, shook his hand, um, the
4:49
Speaker 1: day before the Great Depression began. And so right before
4:53
Speaker 1: the president is about to shake his hand, that's when
4:55
Speaker 1: he says he met Herbert Hoover was like before the
4:57
Speaker 1: depression began. So the president is about to shake his hand,
5:00
Speaker 1: and then he stops and he goes into the corner
5:02
Speaker 1: with his aid, uh named Charlie Young in the show,
5:06
Speaker 1: and um, he says to him, I can't believe I'm
5:11
Speaker 1: doing this, but this guy was Hoover's good luck charm
5:14
Speaker 1: and I need the stock market to do what I
5:16
Speaker 1: needed to do tomorrow. And then out loud, he's like,
5:18
Speaker 1: I can't even believe I'm saying this out loud. Of
5:20
Speaker 1: course I'm going to shake his hand, and Charlie goes,
5:22
Speaker 1: I can't believe you're considering shaking his hand at all,
5:24
Speaker 1: Like this is crazy. Put it off till tomorrow. It's funny,
5:29
Speaker 1: that's exactly it. You kind of believe in it, but
5:31
Speaker 1: you don't believe in it, but you kind of like
5:34
Speaker 1: what do you got to lose? You know what, I'm
5:36
Speaker 1: not going to believe in it, Like say it loud,
5:39
Speaker 1: say it proud. I'm fucking twelve, two and two this
5:41
Speaker 1: past week. I'm one eight, seven and two on the year,
5:44
Speaker 1: picking every game that's fifties. That's nearly That's about as
5:49
Speaker 1: good as you can get. I guess you can have
5:50
Speaker 1: phenomenal seasons, but that's I mean, that's really about as
5:53
Speaker 1: good as you can hope for. I've got forty eight
5:56
Speaker 1: games left. Forty eight games left, and I'm thirty thirty
6:00
Speaker 1: one games above five. Wow, that's fantastic. I And what
6:11
Speaker 1: do you need? You need to win of those? I
6:16
Speaker 1: don't know. You do the math, you're a bookmaker. You
6:19
Speaker 1: need to win those. I need to win twenty eight
6:23
Speaker 1: games to finish at No, to finish at because you're
6:28
Speaker 1: a fifty eight percent now right, so so to continue
6:32
Speaker 1: that needed? All right, I'm writing that down. Hold on,
6:40
Speaker 1: I gotta get the microphone out of the way so
6:41
Speaker 1: I can make a note of that I need to
6:43
Speaker 1: win more games. I'm just gonna quickly write that down.
6:49
Speaker 1: All right. That is insane. That seems doable to me. Yeah,
6:56
Speaker 1: given the streak. I'm on, Ye, what is that? That's
7:00
Speaker 1: that's a week, that's nine ten, it's it's a it's
7:04
Speaker 1: a nine nine ten combination. That's rough. Say it like that,
7:11
Speaker 1: and it's rough. I'm going nine and seven, nine and
7:17
Speaker 1: seven and then ten and six to any year I
7:23
Speaker 1: just took. I gotta move the Seahawks game. Not to
7:25
Speaker 1: interrupt this, I'm going from five and a half to
7:27
Speaker 1: six on the Seahawks nine change. All right, you know what,
7:33
Speaker 1: Let's just get to it. Let's stop talking about me
7:36
Speaker 1: and my brilliance. I mean, by the way, I should
7:38
Speaker 1: give some I've said this whole thing. I haven't given
7:40
Speaker 1: any credit to my buddy Matt from her in, who
7:45
Speaker 1: I entered into this with. And the truth is like
7:47
Speaker 1: I'll pick half the games, he picks half the games.
7:50
Speaker 1: And um, we just happened to both be on fire
7:53
Speaker 1: right now. Wow? Yeah, unbelievable. Ye, speaking of on fire,
8:01
Speaker 1: let's get to it. Scooch we both want scoocher let
8:03
Speaker 1: last week, so that'll be interesting. Um, we've got an
8:07
Speaker 1: on fire Baltimore Ravens team that is fifteen and a
8:11
Speaker 1: half point favorites right now. Fifteen and a half point favorites?
8:15
Speaker 1: Are you kidding me? They are a juggernaut. We just
8:21
Speaker 1: we just went to fourteen and a half. So we
8:24
Speaker 1: did take a couple of a couple of big bets
8:27
Speaker 1: on plus fifteen and a half. FI teams are dead numbers,
8:31
Speaker 1: so there's really no difference between fourteen and a half
8:33
Speaker 1: and fifteen and a half. Um. But yeah, we're like
8:37
Speaker 1: looking at this number saying, I mean, they're they're betting Ravens,
8:41
Speaker 1: and Ravens are covering every week, and you know, at
8:44
Speaker 1: what point on a on a high profile game, the
8:47
Speaker 1: Thursday night game, we know everybody that walks into the
8:50
Speaker 1: sports book is just going to take the Ravens. So
8:52
Speaker 1: I might as well just make them as high as possible. Wow,
8:56
Speaker 1: how do I not take the Jets in that spot?
8:59
Speaker 1: I have absolutely have to, absolutely have to. I mean
9:02
Speaker 1: it goes on, goes with every kind of sports betting rules.
9:06
Speaker 1: You know that the double digit underdogs and the I
9:10
Speaker 1: mean and the Jets, I mean, you look at their
9:12
Speaker 1: last three or four games, and uh, they're not playing bad.
9:17
Speaker 1: You know, you can take the throw throw the one
9:18
Speaker 1: game out that uh uh that they stuck it up.
9:21
Speaker 1: But I mean they're they're they're playing competitive. So to
9:25
Speaker 1: be getting fourteen and to have points, all they gotta
9:27
Speaker 1: do is keep it close. You're not asking them to
9:28
Speaker 1: win the game. No, not at all um and the
9:31
Speaker 1: rush defense is really good and that's something the Ravens
9:35
Speaker 1: do well. So like it's strength on strength there. Yep,
9:39
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Yep. We just gotta, you know,
9:42
Speaker 1: make sure checking on the weather on this one. But
9:44
Speaker 1: I mean, if it is kind of bad weather, it
9:46
Speaker 1: actually plays into the Jets favor a little bit. So
9:49
Speaker 1: what is the weather in this game? Do we know yet?
9:51
Speaker 1: It's a little little early on this one. Uh. I
9:55
Speaker 1: mean the wind is the thing that you gotta watch
9:59
Speaker 1: and that's really not people. We are not going to
10:01
Speaker 1: know that until closer to game time. No wind right now.
10:05
Speaker 1: The only wind I'm looking uh sports insights dot Action
10:09
Speaker 1: network dot com. It's a weather tool. Anyone can sign
10:12
Speaker 1: up to get it. Miami Dolphins at New York Giants
10:14
Speaker 1: going to have fifteen mile pro wins this weekend. But
10:16
Speaker 1: I don't have anything on the Ravens and the Jets. Yeah,
10:19
Speaker 1: a little early, remindered everyone. Everything I'm doing, everything is
10:23
Speaker 1: available in the free Action Network gap. Every piece of
10:25
Speaker 1: data I talk about, um in terms of uh, betting
10:29
Speaker 1: percentages on tickets, Uh, who's betting on what? All that
10:35
Speaker 1: kind of stuff. Action Network app. Also you can follow
10:38
Speaker 1: toft or bust get all my picks. You might want
10:41
Speaker 1: to start to fade me. Um, it's free money fading
10:44
Speaker 1: me right now, joke. But I've talked about it so
10:48
Speaker 1: much that you might want to do that, right. What
10:51
Speaker 1: do you think? Do you think people should fade me? Uh?
10:58
Speaker 1: I don't know part right here? I mean I against you.
11:07
Speaker 1: I wouldn't either, my friend step from the don't step
11:10
Speaker 1: in front of that train. No, I'm going to bet
11:12
Speaker 1: on the Jets this weekend. I'm just waiting. I need
11:14
Speaker 1: that number to move a little bit more. Tampa Bay
11:16
Speaker 1: visiting Detroit. You have this game off the board right
11:20
Speaker 1: now because we don't know who's playing quarterback, right, I
11:24
Speaker 1: mean we we had it up and down and it
11:26
Speaker 1: was anywhere from Tampa Bay minus three and a half
11:29
Speaker 1: to Tampa Bay four. So, I mean Winston played the
11:35
Speaker 1: Jameis Winston played most of that game last week with
11:38
Speaker 1: that some injury. Uh. As usual, he has a really
11:42
Speaker 1: good good moments and had some really bad moments. So
11:46
Speaker 1: but we're just going to keep an eye and see,
11:48
Speaker 1: uh see if he's playing this weekend. So we're just
11:50
Speaker 1: being on the safe side, keeping it all for now.
11:54
Speaker 1: I really liked this next game, and by the way,
11:57
Speaker 1: I want people to recognize you and I have talked
11:59
Speaker 1: about this, but last week we spent so much time
12:02
Speaker 1: both on and by the way, don't forget Scooch and
12:04
Speaker 1: I do our Action Network Countdown to Kickoff show every
12:08
Speaker 1: Sunday noon to one, and we got bets flying. We
12:10
Speaker 1: got bets for five thousand, ten thousand, fifty thousand dollars
12:13
Speaker 1: coming in in a real time. Scooch is moving the
12:16
Speaker 1: number as we break down every game. Uh and last
12:19
Speaker 1: week we were saying Jets Dolphins is going to be
12:22
Speaker 1: the most interesting game on the board, and it was
12:24
Speaker 1: like it was a fascinating game. As a better I
12:28
Speaker 1: feel the same way about this Eagles visiting the Redskins game.
12:31
Speaker 1: Redskins four and a half point favorites. Although you have
12:33
Speaker 1: it off the board right now, I don't know why
12:36
Speaker 1: Eagles Eagles favorite, you have another one. We were just
12:40
Speaker 1: going back and forth to put it on the board,
12:42
Speaker 1: off the board, just making sure we're getting all the
12:45
Speaker 1: latest information with uh al shot Jeffrey and a couple
12:49
Speaker 1: of couple of other guys on the Eagle side. I mean,
12:53
Speaker 1: they're pretty banged up, and UH, we just want to
12:56
Speaker 1: make sure that that we have all the latest information
12:58
Speaker 1: so it's not a new sual like on a Tuesday
13:01
Speaker 1: morning following a team that played on Monday night first,
13:04
Speaker 1: and just be a little bit more careful before keeping
13:07
Speaker 1: it up on the board. So we did put it
13:10
Speaker 1: up though at four, got a little Eagles money before
13:14
Speaker 1: we took it back down off the board. So uh,
13:18
Speaker 1: now I see most places have it up at four
13:20
Speaker 1: and a half. So I think the sharp guys will
13:23
Speaker 1: see a little bit of value with Washington, especially if
13:27
Speaker 1: they were able to draw anything from the Monday night
13:29
Speaker 1: game with the Giants, and uh, the Eagles were able
13:32
Speaker 1: to come back in that one, but the first half
13:35
Speaker 1: certainly looked like almost anybody could kind of do well
13:39
Speaker 1: against the Eagles. So I guess the Redskins that plus
13:42
Speaker 1: four and a half, especially if you look at their
13:44
Speaker 1: last performance against green Bay as as as huge underdogs
13:48
Speaker 1: and they got down to that four team nothing deficit,
13:52
Speaker 1: but they held green Bay after that and made that
13:56
Speaker 1: game pretty competitive. So here they are again with a
13:59
Speaker 1: team that's not as good as green Bay getting four
14:01
Speaker 1: and a half points at home. I think I see
14:03
Speaker 1: the value there, but nevertheless, I'm sure, we're gonna get
14:06
Speaker 1: a lot of public money on the Eagles. Do you
14:08
Speaker 1: think that line is going to move up before it
14:09
Speaker 1: moves down? Uh? I think it'll stay a four and
14:15
Speaker 1: to have most of the week and then uh, I
14:17
Speaker 1: think closer to game time it'll probably move down. No,
14:21
Speaker 1: I don't think it'll go up. Just try. We're saying
14:24
Speaker 1: about of the action on Philadelphia, but it's all it's
14:29
Speaker 1: all just kind of recreational bettors in the general public.
14:31
Speaker 1: So I don't see them really driving it up too much. Uh.
14:36
Speaker 1: Mitch Rubinsky and the Chicago Bears, the red hot Chicago
14:39
Speaker 1: Bears and the brilliant Mitch Drubisky visiting Green Bay where
14:45
Speaker 1: they are four and a half point underdogs right now.
14:48
Speaker 1: This is a hard game to cap for me. I really,
14:51
Speaker 1: I kind of have no read on it. The Packers
14:54
Speaker 1: have really underwhelmed for a month. Uh, and the Bears
14:59
Speaker 1: beat up on the lines team beat up in a
15:01
Speaker 1: Cowboys team in bad shape. I don't know who to
15:03
Speaker 1: believe they are right now? Yeah, now exactly. I mean,
15:08
Speaker 1: Chicago's finally win in a couple of games, but you
15:12
Speaker 1: know they're against kind of left instellar teams and the Packers,
15:15
Speaker 1: Like we were just talking about them with the struggling
15:17
Speaker 1: against the Redskins after getting out to a four team
15:20
Speaker 1: nothing lead. That's kind of been their m O all years.
15:22
Speaker 1: They get out to the early lead and then something
15:24
Speaker 1: happens to them, and then their offense just stalls in
15:27
Speaker 1: the in the second half, and they're, like I said,
15:30
Speaker 1: they're tenant three, They're not really an impressive ten in three,
15:33
Speaker 1: if that makes sense. So here they are laying four
15:37
Speaker 1: and a half. We actually opened this game five and
15:40
Speaker 1: some of the early bets from the professional handicappers around Chicago,
15:45
Speaker 1: so we're actually a little heavy on Chicago, and the
15:50
Speaker 1: public really hasn't weighed in as much yet. I'm sure
15:53
Speaker 1: they're going to be coming in on Green Bay, but
15:56
Speaker 1: so far the sharp guys around Chicago. So if I Chicago,
16:02
Speaker 1: I might want to jump in now at four and
16:05
Speaker 1: a half. If I like Green Bay, I might want
16:07
Speaker 1: to wait. Yeah, I'm actually I actually see this game
16:11
Speaker 1: going down to four, and then it might happen even
16:15
Speaker 1: even earlier before the weekend because there's just there's not
16:18
Speaker 1: enough public sentiment on the Packers to kind of keep
16:21
Speaker 1: the line, uh, you know, as high as we want
16:24
Speaker 1: to make it and Uh, and the sharp guys have
16:27
Speaker 1: already tipped their head which way they're going this next game? Scooch, Yeah,
16:36
Speaker 1: do you know what we're doing right now? What we're
16:38
Speaker 1: on this Cincinnattie and the New England Patriots. Look, Patriots
16:45
Speaker 1: at nine and a half, looking really bad, two weeks
16:47
Speaker 1: in a row, fighting with each other, videotaping the Bengals.
16:52
Speaker 1: Things are so bad they're videotaping the Bengals sideline. And
16:55
Speaker 1: you've got a Bengals team that for two weeks in
16:57
Speaker 1: a row has covered, albeit against bad teams. Um, can
17:02
Speaker 1: I trust the Patriots in their history or the history
17:10
Speaker 1: of teams that are nine ten point underdogs, which is
17:14
Speaker 1: a very specific metric, as well as teams that are
17:18
Speaker 1: big home underdogs, as well as teams that are getting
17:22
Speaker 1: less than the action as a home underdog. Like it's
17:26
Speaker 1: tilting towards Cincinnati here, absolutely, I mean Cincinnati at home
17:32
Speaker 1: getting almost ten points, are getting we're at nine and
17:34
Speaker 1: a half right now. We actually opened the game ten,
17:37
Speaker 1: took a couple of big bets on Cincinnati, Uh drove
17:41
Speaker 1: it to nine and a half. But I mean, look,
17:44
Speaker 1: it's hard to bet against the Patriots and we've said
17:46
Speaker 1: it all a year, but if there's a time to
17:47
Speaker 1: do it, it would be now. And I often say,
17:50
Speaker 1: you know, you can't read too much out of just
17:53
Speaker 1: one game, like if this team has a bad performance
17:56
Speaker 1: and they fall flat. But you're talking about the last
17:59
Speaker 1: five weeks. The Patriots have three losses, and this is
18:02
Speaker 1: the Patriot team that when they haven't lost at home
18:04
Speaker 1: in years, and you know, and here they are. They're
18:07
Speaker 1: not only losing, they're losing at home. They're not looking good.
18:11
Speaker 1: And now you're asking to cover double digits on the road.
18:14
Speaker 1: I mean, I know it's against the worst team in
18:16
Speaker 1: the league, but now here's a Cincinnati team that if
18:19
Speaker 1: they are playing, uh, if you pick a point in
18:21
Speaker 1: the season where they're playing their best, we could argue
18:24
Speaker 1: it is now. They had a couple of games in
18:26
Speaker 1: a row, even though last week it was kind of
18:28
Speaker 1: right around the number depending on what you got with
18:31
Speaker 1: the Browns. That line fluctuated between seven and nine throughout
18:34
Speaker 1: the week. So but but absolutely it's this is way
18:39
Speaker 1: more value on the Bengals than there is on New England.
18:42
Speaker 1: It's just always hard to bet against New England. Well, look,
18:45
Speaker 1: you've got the like The polarity couldn't be more exaggerated
18:50
Speaker 1: because it's the one team that defies every rule as
18:54
Speaker 1: a favorite and the one team that defies every rule
18:58
Speaker 1: as an underdog, right, like, yeah, this is a matchup
19:02
Speaker 1: made in heaven here, yeah, or a matchup made in
19:06
Speaker 1: hell and then and then you got to think, I
19:10
Speaker 1: mean the Patriots kind of the Bills next week, which
19:13
Speaker 1: is kind of for the division. So a lot of
19:17
Speaker 1: interesting kind of scenarios with this game. Jesus, why is
19:21
Speaker 1: um moving on? Why is Houston Tennessee getting so much
19:25
Speaker 1: attention right now? This is the most bad game we
19:27
Speaker 1: have on the board and our Action Network app with
19:30
Speaker 1: the most most tickets. Well, I mean talking about the division,
19:35
Speaker 1: I mean this game. This game is for the Pantheon
19:37
Speaker 1: Cup title, That's what I mean. So the Titans have
19:44
Speaker 1: drawn Here's why there's so much interest in the game.
19:47
Speaker 1: The Titans have drawn more action from the Sharp guys
19:50
Speaker 1: in the last three or four weeks than almost any
19:52
Speaker 1: other team on the board. They have been on them
19:55
Speaker 1: every week, So they're seeing the effectiveness of this offense.
20:00
Speaker 1: They're they're seeing um, you know, they're throwing out the
20:03
Speaker 1: first half of the year. Uh, and then at the
20:06
Speaker 1: same time, you have a Texans team that wins big
20:10
Speaker 1: games like beating the Patriots and then comes back and
20:12
Speaker 1: then lays an egg the following the week, plays super
20:15
Speaker 1: well against teams like the Saints, and then loses to
20:18
Speaker 1: you know, teams like the Colts, And so, I mean,
20:21
Speaker 1: this team is kind of interesting to watch because the inconsistency.
20:26
Speaker 1: So now here you have the two best teams in
20:28
Speaker 1: the division supposedly, and uh no surprise that they're only
20:33
Speaker 1: separated by the three point home field advantage, which is
20:36
Speaker 1: kind of most games that you see in that division.
20:39
Speaker 1: Just make the home team three points and you've got
20:41
Speaker 1: your line. Um, But we're actually seeing a little bit
20:46
Speaker 1: more sharp money coming in on the Texans, but not
20:49
Speaker 1: much so we went to minus three even money on
20:53
Speaker 1: Tennessee and uh uh, the public is slightly on the Titans,
21:00
Speaker 1: but the sharp guys are slightly on the Texans. So
21:02
Speaker 1: you might have to go to two and a half here,
21:05
Speaker 1: if anything, that's the direction we're going. I mean, and
21:07
Speaker 1: any figures like that said, when I've said it before,
21:10
Speaker 1: when you have like two really good teams a competitive
21:13
Speaker 1: matchup and they're only separated by the field goal, the
21:15
Speaker 1: general tendency is to go ahead and take the points, right,
21:20
Speaker 1: but if that line drops the two and a half,
21:22
Speaker 1: the tendency is to lay the points. Like, yeah, the
21:26
Speaker 1: difference of a half point when you're talking about, um,
21:30
Speaker 1: the margin of three, that key number. At two and
21:33
Speaker 1: a half, you've bet the Titans and at three to
21:36
Speaker 1: take a shop with the Texans. Like you said, how
21:38
Speaker 1: you got lucky with the Buccaneers. I mean so many
21:40
Speaker 1: games full three. Uh, there's just that tremendous value with
21:44
Speaker 1: that half point. All right, Seattle's going on the road
21:47
Speaker 1: getting truly beat up, losing Rashad Penny Uh, playing a
21:51
Speaker 1: really dreadful Carolina Panthers team that is just lost, like
21:54
Speaker 1: they don't know what they're doing. Um, you got the
21:58
Speaker 1: Panthers is a six and a half point ug That
22:01
Speaker 1: feels like a dangerous underdog to me. Dangerous. Actually, those
22:05
Speaker 1: are some dangerous cats. We're at six. We were at
22:11
Speaker 1: five and a half before the show started. This was
22:13
Speaker 1: the one at the top of the show that we
22:15
Speaker 1: actually took a couple of big bets from sharp guys
22:18
Speaker 1: on Seattle and we went to six just a matter
22:21
Speaker 1: of minutes ago. So the money is all on Seattle.
22:25
Speaker 1: A matter of fact, it's like Seattle money, and it's
22:29
Speaker 1: both from sharp guys and uh the general public. So
22:34
Speaker 1: if the Panthers are a dangerous dog, I really hope
22:36
Speaker 1: you're right, and I hope that winning percentage that you
22:39
Speaker 1: had carries over into this game. If you like the Panthers,
22:42
Speaker 1: because that's who we're gonna need. What do you think
22:45
Speaker 1: of this game? What would you take in this what
22:47
Speaker 1: side would you take the Well? I I like the
22:50
Speaker 1: Seahawks as well. I mean, the Panthers are done for
22:55
Speaker 1: the season, and I really liked uh last week. The
22:58
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons was was my scooch ulemtic and one of
23:03
Speaker 1: our shows. I know we do two of them, but
23:05
Speaker 1: I really liked Atlanta last week. I think Seattle is
23:10
Speaker 1: just every bit as good and the dangerous is as
23:13
Speaker 1: uh as the Falcons were last week. And then Seahawks
23:17
Speaker 1: coming off of that loss, I think they're going to
23:21
Speaker 1: come into this game and and and looking to put
23:23
Speaker 1: a thumping on Carolina. Why do you not have the
23:28
Speaker 1: Kids City Chiefs hosting the Denver Broncos on the board
23:31
Speaker 1: right now? We were Mahomes has got that injury. Now
23:38
Speaker 1: he's listed we actually had the game up. We opened
23:41
Speaker 1: the game up at eleven and a half, and uh,
23:44
Speaker 1: the first bet we took was ten thousand dollar bettert
23:48
Speaker 1: plus eleven and a half. When we went to eleven,
23:50
Speaker 1: then they took the eleven. Uh. And then it came
23:53
Speaker 1: out that that Mahomes was was questionable. Uh there. I
23:58
Speaker 1: mean they've since upgraded him to probable now. But it's
24:01
Speaker 1: just I mean, obviously it's just such a key piece
24:03
Speaker 1: of that offense. And we've talked about it before how
24:07
Speaker 1: much we've liked Denver as a covering team all year,
24:10
Speaker 1: and we don't want to be too high on the
24:12
Speaker 1: favorites against Denver, and Denver has been really good to
24:16
Speaker 1: to us this year. Um, I don't want to put
24:19
Speaker 1: ourselves in a position where we're taking too much on Denver.
24:22
Speaker 1: A't such a big note. What am I going to do?
24:26
Speaker 1: Because if it comes out that Mahomes is not going
24:29
Speaker 1: to start in this one, then this line drops down
24:32
Speaker 1: to you know, like seven and a half. It's almost
24:35
Speaker 1: like if you want to bet it, if you like Denver,
24:37
Speaker 1: you want to bet it now. Absolutely, I mean, either
24:41
Speaker 1: the way, even if my Homes starts, I still think
24:44
Speaker 1: that there's a little value there. We were just trying
24:46
Speaker 1: to you know this, between the Chiefs and the and
24:49
Speaker 1: the Ravens, those are the two teams right now that
24:51
Speaker 1: are drawing the absolute most parley money and the most
24:55
Speaker 1: tickets and most teaser bets and money lines and everything else.
24:58
Speaker 1: So we just tried to be as high as possible. Um,
25:01
Speaker 1: but I don't want to be high with an injured quarterback.
25:04
Speaker 1: You know, that's just a little too much uh too
25:07
Speaker 1: much value on on Denver. I'm in a pool, uh
25:12
Speaker 1: where each of the contestants put in a fair amount
25:17
Speaker 1: of money. Let's call it two thousand dollars. There's four
25:19
Speaker 1: of us, and um, we each choose eight teams to
25:23
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl, and the person who wins, the
25:27
Speaker 1: person whose team wins, wins the pot. And I had
25:30
Speaker 1: the number two pick. I really wanted to take the
25:34
Speaker 1: the Patriots, number one overall, someone got to them. I
25:38
Speaker 1: chose the Chiefs and number two overall. I'm feeling much
25:41
Speaker 1: better about my choice than the Patriots right now. Yeah,
25:46
Speaker 1: I'll say, alright, this next game is so much fun,
25:50
Speaker 1: especially if we think Eli Manning is playing Miami is
25:53
Speaker 1: visiting the New York Giants. Ryan Fitzpatrick against Eli Manning.
25:56
Speaker 1: Oh my god, if there's ever been a game that
25:59
Speaker 1: will make you feel sick to your stomach the entire
26:02
Speaker 1: time that you're betting at every single time one of
26:04
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks has the ball in his hand, it could
26:07
Speaker 1: be a touchdown or a pick six that like, those
26:11
Speaker 1: are the results, and you've got the Giants is three
26:15
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites right now. Yeah, this is
26:18
Speaker 1: a tough one and it looks like nobody knows what
26:21
Speaker 1: to do with it. When you have to, uh, two
26:23
Speaker 1: teams like like the Giants and the Dolphins, it's hard
26:26
Speaker 1: to have a lot of confidence in either of them.
26:28
Speaker 1: Although the Dolphins have just been kind of a covering
26:33
Speaker 1: machine the last five or six weeks um as much,
26:37
Speaker 1: you know, as much as they've been losing, and you know,
26:39
Speaker 1: as bad as that that the team is, they're always
26:41
Speaker 1: competitive and because of that first half of the year
26:44
Speaker 1: when they're their power rankings just sunk to such a
26:48
Speaker 1: such an all time low. Uh, you've got a lot
26:50
Speaker 1: of value on them in the next four or five games. So, uh,
26:54
Speaker 1: it's tough not to not to take the Dolphins with points,
26:57
Speaker 1: especially you know, three and a half. We just talked
26:59
Speaker 1: about that key number three. I think there's a lot
27:01
Speaker 1: of value in that hook here, so I would leave
27:04
Speaker 1: Dolphins in this one. All right, Listen, I lost to
27:09
Speaker 1: no I'm sorry. I a'most skip the game. The most
27:11
Speaker 1: exciting game the Sunday night game Buffalo visiting Pittsburgh. Josh
27:16
Speaker 1: Allen and Duck Hodges. I think you got a duck
27:19
Speaker 1: and dodge in this game, because who knows where the
27:23
Speaker 1: balls are gonna fly? Um, what's interesting to me that
27:26
Speaker 1: the Steelers are two and a half way favorites. You
27:29
Speaker 1: probably played the Steelers just because short home favorite, right,
27:32
Speaker 1: a law of averages? But the total is this the
27:35
Speaker 1: lowest total of the year. Counterpower is one of the
27:37
Speaker 1: guys who works in the social team here at the
27:38
Speaker 1: Action Network. We're talking about this game earlier today, and
27:42
Speaker 1: because that's what we do at the Action Network, we
27:43
Speaker 1: just talked about betting and he brought up that he
27:45
Speaker 1: thought this might be the lowest total of the year. Yeah.
27:50
Speaker 1: I don't remember anyone going down to thirty six and
27:53
Speaker 1: a half. There was one bad weather game that was
27:55
Speaker 1: right around thirty seven, but this is probably the lowest
27:58
Speaker 1: that we started out, and Buffalo has gone under I
28:01
Speaker 1: think more than any other teams. So uh, it makes
28:05
Speaker 1: sense that, uh, you know, we keep dropping the dropping
28:08
Speaker 1: the totals on on the Bills games. Uh, you know,
28:11
Speaker 1: the great defense and keep the games close. They're going
28:15
Speaker 1: up against one of the hottest teams. I mean, the
28:17
Speaker 1: Steelers just quietly have just been winning games and uh
28:21
Speaker 1: you know, they're they're talking about Tomlins being coach of
28:24
Speaker 1: the Year and one of the best coaching jobs he's
28:27
Speaker 1: ever done with this team. So um, and it looks
28:31
Speaker 1: like the wise guys are believing that because they're they're
28:33
Speaker 1: betting the Steelers as well. The public, though, is on
28:37
Speaker 1: the Bills, And this is kind of another case when
28:39
Speaker 1: I was talking about two good teams going up against
28:42
Speaker 1: each other, and the tendency is to just take the points,
28:45
Speaker 1: although there's not a whole lot of value in two
28:47
Speaker 1: and a half much rather take three points. But there's more.
28:52
Speaker 1: There's almost double the amount of tickets from general public
28:55
Speaker 1: on the Bills than there is the Steelers. But there
28:57
Speaker 1: is those big bets from the professionals. Uh, and they're
29:00
Speaker 1: definitely on the Steelers in this one. Pros are on
29:03
Speaker 1: the Steelers. Yeah. I think I would be too. You
29:08
Speaker 1: know why? Why? Why is that one of the two
29:15
Speaker 1: games I didn't win last weekend was Jacksonville, and you
29:17
Speaker 1: and I had a long conversation about the late move
29:20
Speaker 1: was on the Chargers. All the Wise guys were coming
29:22
Speaker 1: into the Chargers. I didn't get it, and then I
29:25
Speaker 1: got it, because boy, was this team just terrible. Yeah,
29:30
Speaker 1: it's a really strong move. I've often said when it's
29:33
Speaker 1: a there's a game on the board that nobody else
29:36
Speaker 1: really pays attention to, that nobody likes. But then you
29:39
Speaker 1: see the professional betters coming in just hand over fifth
29:43
Speaker 1: on that game, they usually see something that's not in
29:46
Speaker 1: the line. It's not swede in any way by any
29:49
Speaker 1: public bias or public money. It's just strictly a lot
29:53
Speaker 1: of sharp guys with an opinion, and that play has
29:55
Speaker 1: been pretty strong, especially when it comes in about twenty
29:58
Speaker 1: minutes before gametime, which kind of is what the Chargers
30:02
Speaker 1: move was last week. Um. And the one thing though
30:07
Speaker 1: that the Wise guys were off on last week is
30:10
Speaker 1: they also bet the Raiders last week. There was another
30:12
Speaker 1: late move in one of the rare instances where they
30:15
Speaker 1: were off on. So far, it looks like everybody's on
30:20
Speaker 1: the Raiders in this game. Both Sharp Guys and the public,
30:24
Speaker 1: we have almost nothing on the Jaguars, both in parlays
30:28
Speaker 1: or straight bets. It's just all one way. In this one.
30:31
Speaker 1: We opened six, we're at six and a half, probably
30:34
Speaker 1: going to see a seven in this game. So if
30:36
Speaker 1: you if you are going to let the Raiders in
30:38
Speaker 1: this one, might as well grab that six and a half. Now.
30:42
Speaker 1: I don't want to bet this game. It's a tough one,
30:46
Speaker 1: really is. There's too many points for a Raiders team
30:50
Speaker 1: to lay, so you're asking them to win by more
30:51
Speaker 1: than a touchdown. Uh, And there's absolutely no reason to
30:54
Speaker 1: bet Jacksonville right now. And actually I think I mentioned
30:58
Speaker 1: this last week as well. Jacksonville is one of those
31:01
Speaker 1: teams that the Sharp guys have been betting against. Three
31:04
Speaker 1: of the last four weeks they've been against them. So
31:07
Speaker 1: they they're betting the Titans every week, they're betting the
31:09
Speaker 1: Buccaneers every week when Jameis Winston is healthy, and they're
31:13
Speaker 1: betting against Jacksonville. Oh, the Pantheon Cup teams, that's where
31:19
Speaker 1: they're making their money. By the way, that says everything
31:22
Speaker 1: about our theory. All the teams from the Southeast that
31:25
Speaker 1: nobody's paying attention to that. Nobody bets on that's where
31:29
Speaker 1: they're finding the value. Yeah, exactly, Cleveland visiting Arizona, a
31:36
Speaker 1: team that used to be getting a lot of value.
31:38
Speaker 1: I was on the Steelers this past week. I kind
31:41
Speaker 1: of I feel like I've you know, Cliff Kingsbury was
31:44
Speaker 1: a novelty the first seven weeks of the year, ten
31:46
Speaker 1: weeks of the year, and I think he's been exposed
31:49
Speaker 1: a little bit in the last four or five weeks.
31:52
Speaker 1: So I've been off of Arizona, including this past weekend.
31:56
Speaker 1: But two and a half points at home against Eveland.
32:00
Speaker 1: Freddie Kitchens like, that's a different scenario. One of the
32:03
Speaker 1: wise guys doing. They're staying away from this one. We
32:07
Speaker 1: have almost nothing on this game. This might be this
32:09
Speaker 1: might be the corner TV game. I think there's probably
32:12
Speaker 1: going to be more interest in the Dolphins Giants than
32:15
Speaker 1: the Browns Cardinals. I think kind of, Uh you mentioned
32:19
Speaker 1: about the kind of fascination with this Cardinals team early
32:22
Speaker 1: on in the year. I think the public got burned
32:25
Speaker 1: on of too many times. I mean even, I mean
32:27
Speaker 1: they were competitive even last week, had a really good
32:29
Speaker 1: shot to uh, to cover against Pittsburgh. I mean the
32:33
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh had that kickoff return for a touchdown that had
32:36
Speaker 1: a couple of a couple of other key moments and
32:39
Speaker 1: that could have put the Cardinals in that game. Uh so,
32:42
Speaker 1: so they should be competitive in this one. But there's
32:44
Speaker 1: nothing in the point spread that gives really either side
32:46
Speaker 1: an edge. I mean you're just basically picking the team
32:49
Speaker 1: to win the game. The points spread isn't really coming
32:51
Speaker 1: into effect. And honestly, both teams have been kind of
32:53
Speaker 1: under performing. So Cleveland's playing a little bit better lately,
32:57
Speaker 1: but not by much. Yeah, San Francisco is an eleven
33:04
Speaker 1: point favorite against the Atlanta Falcons. Uh so, we tried
33:11
Speaker 1: to make this one as high as we could know
33:13
Speaker 1: and that the general public is going to be all
33:16
Speaker 1: over San Francisco. Even in San Francisco's losses, they've looked good,
33:20
Speaker 1: which is, you know, the sign of a great team
33:21
Speaker 1: that uh you know, there's no disgrace in losing by
33:25
Speaker 1: three to the Ravens and by getting edged out by
33:28
Speaker 1: Seattle and a close game and uh you know so
33:32
Speaker 1: and coming off of that that win that game wild
33:35
Speaker 1: game against New Orleans last week where I think that
33:39
Speaker 1: was the first time their defense was actually uh exposed
33:43
Speaker 1: a little bit. This This forty Niners defense is one
33:46
Speaker 1: of the best in the NFL. Kind of getting lit up.
33:50
Speaker 1: I think this is the Falcons defense has been playing
33:54
Speaker 1: the best that they've played all year. So I actually
33:57
Speaker 1: have been kind of liking the Falcon since the last
34:00
Speaker 1: few weeks. Um, And I know we we didn't like
34:04
Speaker 1: them early on, but I like them lately. And I
34:06
Speaker 1: think that this there's gonna be a lot of value
34:09
Speaker 1: when it's eleven points, even against a great team like
34:13
Speaker 1: like Seattle. I don't disagree, but I like how you
34:15
Speaker 1: said it almost sheepishly. What that I like the Falcon
34:23
Speaker 1: sheepest sheepestly, a little embarrassed to say it in front
34:27
Speaker 1: of me. Yeah, because well we know how we we
34:31
Speaker 1: felt about the Falcons over the last couple of years.
34:34
Speaker 1: But uh, they had been looking at you. You look
34:37
Speaker 1: at the two games they played against the Saints, and
34:41
Speaker 1: one of them they just rolled the Saints, and then
34:43
Speaker 1: the other one on Thanksgiving Day where they ended up
34:45
Speaker 1: not covering, but again they were right in it and
34:48
Speaker 1: could have covered. At the end of the game came
34:50
Speaker 1: down to one of the last plays, winning by twenty
34:53
Speaker 1: last week or their offense was putting up points. Just
34:56
Speaker 1: got to make sure that the receivers are all healthy
34:59
Speaker 1: and and that's what we're kind of keeping an eye
35:01
Speaker 1: on that. But that that might be a question if
35:04
Speaker 1: you see the line move later in the week. Uh,
35:07
Speaker 1: just making sure all of Atlanta's weapons are healthy. But
35:11
Speaker 1: but I think there's just a lot of value in
35:12
Speaker 1: those double digits there the resurgent Rams against the fading Cowboys.
35:18
Speaker 1: This give has been bouncing around pick minus one? Where
35:20
Speaker 1: are you at? What are people doing? We're at the
35:25
Speaker 1: Cowboys minus one? But everything sharp, guys, public, everybody's on
35:30
Speaker 1: the Rams. Um we I really liked the Rams last week,
35:35
Speaker 1: and you and I talked about a great spot against
35:39
Speaker 1: Seattle and the Rams are seemed to be getting their
35:42
Speaker 1: footing back from that great season they had last year.
35:46
Speaker 1: But it seems like every time you start believing in
35:49
Speaker 1: the Rams, they let you down. So but but the
35:52
Speaker 1: public seeing that game last week, the Rams are kind
35:55
Speaker 1: of right back in their mind. And the public has
35:57
Speaker 1: gotten burned by the Cowboys. Uh, you know since Thanksgivings
36:01
Speaker 1: and there there there's no interest in uh in betting
36:05
Speaker 1: the Cowboys again. So just right now, We've got about
36:07
Speaker 1: eight of the bets are on the rams. Of the
36:12
Speaker 1: money is on the rams. We have absolutely no support
36:16
Speaker 1: for the for the Cowboys in this one, and I
36:19
Speaker 1: kind of believe it myself. So I might move this line. Yeah,
36:25
Speaker 1: I think I'm going to move it. We talked to
36:27
Speaker 1: you into it right now. Line change, yep, you did. Hey, listen,
36:32
Speaker 1: I feel like Minnesota visiting the Chargers if the Chargers
36:35
Speaker 1: don't blow up the Jaguars this past weekend. Uh, this
36:40
Speaker 1: line is much bigger. What was the look aheadline on
36:42
Speaker 1: Minnesota at the Chargers three and a half to four,
36:46
Speaker 1: So now it's two and a half, So the big,
36:49
Speaker 1: big difference. That's only one point, but that's a huge difference.
36:54
Speaker 1: That screams take the Minnesota Vikings. Um, it really does
36:59
Speaker 1: because of the value there and the half a point.
37:02
Speaker 1: And I know the Chargers can really step up and
37:05
Speaker 1: win a game like but you can't can't look at
37:09
Speaker 1: the teams like Jacksonville as as being you know, impressive victories. Uh,
37:13
Speaker 1: Minnesota is a good team and you know, I know
37:16
Speaker 1: they struggled a little bit last week. I think a
37:19
Speaker 1: lot of people as has double digit favorites. Uh, they
37:23
Speaker 1: end up covering that game by a half a point
37:25
Speaker 1: depending on what line you got. They went by thirteen. Uh.
37:29
Speaker 1: A lot of people felt that they should have kind
37:31
Speaker 1: of more easily won that game by a larger margin.
37:35
Speaker 1: But this is this is a short road favorite that
37:39
Speaker 1: I would definitely take. I have no competence in the Chargers, none,
37:44
Speaker 1: and the Vikings have just looked really good. Like they
37:47
Speaker 1: look competent. They don't look like a team that's inconsistent
37:49
Speaker 1: right now. Yeah, all right, Jacoby Practi's on the road
37:55
Speaker 1: at the Saints. Taken the Colt to the Dome. Saints
37:59
Speaker 1: are nine point favorite Monday Night, Drew Brees with a
38:01
Speaker 1: chance to break the all time uh touchdown passing record
38:06
Speaker 1: in prime time. Nine point favorites, though, that is a
38:10
Speaker 1: big number. It is and uh, but when we're looking
38:14
Speaker 1: at kind of the cycles of the team and how
38:16
Speaker 1: they have both peaks and valleys, I wouldn't say that
38:19
Speaker 1: the Colts are playing their their best right now. They
38:21
Speaker 1: kind of had their kind of peak moment probably in
38:24
Speaker 1: the middle of the season when they were upsetting some
38:27
Speaker 1: teams straight up as as kind of six point underdogs. Uh. Now,
38:32
Speaker 1: I think, uh, the public is definitely going to be
38:35
Speaker 1: on the Saints and this one probably at about a
38:37
Speaker 1: seventy seventy rate, even at even at minus nine. Uh,
38:42
Speaker 1: not a whole lot of confidence in this Colts team.
38:44
Speaker 1: And even the sharp guys have jumped off them about
38:46
Speaker 1: three weeks ago. There was a time when they were
38:49
Speaker 1: on the Colts every week, but as we're about three
38:51
Speaker 1: weeks ago, they jumped off of this team. So they're
38:54
Speaker 1: not playing their best. That's why the nine point favorite,
38:56
Speaker 1: it's just a tough number. I mean for for a
38:59
Speaker 1: sharp guy to late nine. I don't see the sharp
39:02
Speaker 1: guys Wayne and on this one unless you get to ten. Scooch,
39:07
Speaker 1: I guess what it's time to dot. That's right, brother,
39:16
Speaker 1: we were both winners last week. Yeah, but I'm twelve,
39:21
Speaker 1: two and two and hitting at a clip on the
39:24
Speaker 1: year betting every game in the NFL, and you have
39:27
Speaker 1: excuses like thinking how much more money we could have
39:29
Speaker 1: made if I wasn't as good a bookmaker as I am.
39:31
Speaker 1: So I feel like I feel like I should go first,
39:37
Speaker 1: Go first, Which craptastic team am I going to bet on?
39:42
Speaker 1: Because that's what you gotta do, you gotta bet bad teams.
39:46
Speaker 1: I am gonna go with the Los Angeles Rams. You know,
39:54
Speaker 1: I love them myself. I'm just I know how teams
39:59
Speaker 1: kind of like to look ahead a little bit. You know,
40:01
Speaker 1: the Rams got the forty niners last week next week,
40:05
Speaker 1: so that's the only thing that kind of scares me
40:07
Speaker 1: off of this one. But but I like it. I
40:10
Speaker 1: was tossed between the Falcons and Rams myself. So since
40:13
Speaker 1: you already went with the Rams, I'm going to go
40:14
Speaker 1: with the Falcons. I was tossed between the Falcons and
40:17
Speaker 1: the Redskins. Oh okay, yeah, the Redskins. You mentioned that earlier.
40:22
Speaker 1: I like them too. I like to you know what,
40:24
Speaker 1: I want to change my pick. I'm gonna go to
40:25
Speaker 1: the Redskins. Okay, alright, I'm going to the Redskins. Going
40:30
Speaker 1: to the Redskins. You can't beat me. I am golden,
40:34
Speaker 1: don't fade, gold gold doesn't fade. Oh did you make
40:41
Speaker 1: that up T shirt? Right there? We got some merch.
40:46
Speaker 1: That's a momanism. Momanism Boom, Bob Scucci. Everyone can listen
40:50
Speaker 1: to us on Sundays New to one Radio, dot com
40:52
Speaker 1: radio dot com app, streaming on at Action Network HQ
40:56
Speaker 1: on Twitter. I will talk to you on Sunday, Brother. Alright,
40:59
Speaker 1: sound good, thanks man. We are back with professional better
41:04
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, who is carrying us through the Westgate Las
41:08
Speaker 1: Vegas Super Contest season. We're picking five games every week
41:12
Speaker 1: trying to win one point five million dollars. Normally, Darren
41:16
Speaker 1: Ravella's in the studio with me or on the phone
41:18
Speaker 1: because he is my nemesis and our anchor in this
41:21
Speaker 1: particular exercise. Darren's traveling last week with Darren, Simon and
41:26
Speaker 1: I somehow were able to get ourselves to a place
41:29
Speaker 1: where we went four and one, and Simon has texted
41:33
Speaker 1: me to let me know that we are very close
41:35
Speaker 1: to finishing in the money in this thing. We need
41:38
Speaker 1: three winning weeks and some other things to fall our
41:41
Speaker 1: way to get a chance to win some serious doe. Simon,
41:46
Speaker 1: my brother, my rainmaker. And now a word from a
41:54
Speaker 1: wise guy with Simon Hunter, Dude, what is going on?
42:00
Speaker 1: That was a great um. It was one of those
42:02
Speaker 1: moneys you wake up. We won. We killed him the
42:05
Speaker 1: super Contests. We won four and one, and a lot
42:07
Speaker 1: of my bets hit. I know a lot of your
42:09
Speaker 1: bets hit, a lot of Darren's bets it and you're
42:11
Speaker 1: just like man, so every Monday could just be this good.
42:14
Speaker 1: We just made every right decision and got every bounce. Yeah.
42:18
Speaker 1: I mean I've had a couple um like with with
42:21
Speaker 1: people really like betting these primetime games. Um so for
42:26
Speaker 1: people that I give out plays to, like clients, the
42:28
Speaker 1: biggest thing is these prime time games. That's what these
42:31
Speaker 1: these Joe schmos like. So in a week where you
42:34
Speaker 1: go three now on prime time, that's that's how you
42:37
Speaker 1: know you're having a really good week because those are
42:39
Speaker 1: really the hardest prime time games to pick. So we
42:41
Speaker 1: we had a great week. We had an amazing week.
42:47
Speaker 1: It was it was such a good week that Darren
42:48
Speaker 1: was skipping around a bar by himself. Honest to god,
42:51
Speaker 1: you saw that video when jumping into a pilot pillows
42:53
Speaker 1: in the corner of the bar. What bar has Everyone
42:56
Speaker 1: has to go to Darravel's Twitter feed to understand what
42:58
Speaker 1: we're talking about. But in his regular are weekly Points
43:01
Speaker 1: Bet week, his Points Bet promotion where you can fade vel.
43:05
Speaker 1: He had Darren, he had Eli manning under two hundred
43:07
Speaker 1: forty nine and a half yards and somehow Eli had
43:09
Speaker 1: a hundred and eighty in the first half and over
43:12
Speaker 1: the next two quarters plus overtime, could not get another
43:15
Speaker 1: seventy yards, so Darren won his bet, and UM was
43:20
Speaker 1: bouncing around the bar last night that some reason had
43:23
Speaker 1: pillows in it. I was very impressed on how good
43:26
Speaker 1: of a skipper Darren was. I'm not gonna lie deep
43:29
Speaker 1: down he might be coordinated athletes. Alright, well, let's talk
43:34
Speaker 1: about Darren for a second, because he's gonna be very upset.
43:36
Speaker 1: He's not on, but he is adamant that I that
43:39
Speaker 1: I share his picks before we dismissed them. Are you ready?
43:42
Speaker 1: I'm ready? Seattle minus six? Uh, chalk very chalky. But
43:51
Speaker 1: it could be a smart play in the sense that
43:54
Speaker 1: maybe the Panthers have completely given up and the Seahawks
43:57
Speaker 1: need need this game, and what they do really well
44:00
Speaker 1: is running. Is I mean, if you look getting the
44:02
Speaker 1: numbers of Panthers are one of the worst teams against
44:05
Speaker 1: the run. So that's not a terrible play with the Seahawks.
44:08
Speaker 1: But we can keep going through New England minus nine
44:10
Speaker 1: and a half against the Bengals. Uh. I get what
44:17
Speaker 1: he's thinking of the Patriots. It's like, what are the
44:20
Speaker 1: odds the Patriots don't cover four games in a row?
44:24
Speaker 1: But that's too high that long. I mean, Andy Doulton's terrible,
44:30
Speaker 1: but that's that's a high line nine and a half.
44:32
Speaker 1: So that's really saying that the defense is gonna be
44:35
Speaker 1: fans them here, because if you watch that game last week,
44:37
Speaker 1: and they had a lot of things go right with
44:40
Speaker 1: I know everyone's playing about the referees, but they had
44:42
Speaker 1: so many things. They did trick plays they're scoring off of,
44:46
Speaker 1: they had turnovers, they had block puns, black kicks. I mean,
44:50
Speaker 1: the Patriots always been those kind of games and they didn't.
44:52
Speaker 1: So this Patriots teams kind of scare me where this
44:55
Speaker 1: isn't This isn't our Dad's Patriots. These guys aren't the
44:58
Speaker 1: team they used to be. Not even close. Eagles minus
45:02
Speaker 1: four and a half against the Redskins. Hate this game,
45:05
Speaker 1: Yeah I would. I actually really like the Redskins too.
45:09
Speaker 1: The Eagles are down to practice squad receivers and in
45:15
Speaker 1: the NFL that that's a huge difference when once just
45:18
Speaker 1: has to keep force feeding tight ends where every defense
45:21
Speaker 1: knows that. So I think that's a bad that's a
45:23
Speaker 1: bad side to be on the Eagles. Not this week.
45:25
Speaker 1: I think not only that, I think you and I
45:27
Speaker 1: both just unanimously decided we're going to be on the Redskins.
45:32
Speaker 1: I'm cool with that. Okay, Arizona plus two and a
45:35
Speaker 1: half hate it. I'm done with Cliff Klingsburg. I think
45:37
Speaker 1: the value is out of this team. And it was horrible.
45:41
Speaker 1: We we We had the Cardinals last weekend. They get
45:44
Speaker 1: they give up that point, return to right the right there.
45:47
Speaker 1: We just took a touchdown off the board and then
45:50
Speaker 1: Murray started a close gaming through three interceptions. I can't
45:53
Speaker 1: back I can't out back the Cardinals again. I feel
45:56
Speaker 1: like this team, we we rung as much as we
45:58
Speaker 1: could out of this team. I'll season on. Yeah, we
46:02
Speaker 1: were I think the I think the books out on Calmrath.
46:05
Speaker 1: Are we too late? The Rams our pick or plus
46:10
Speaker 1: one against the Cowboys, And it's funny, I got that.
46:15
Speaker 1: I mean, as most most people that are waiting for
46:17
Speaker 1: those numbers be hung, they probably got the Rams plus three.
46:20
Speaker 1: So that that's crazy that Vegas already moved this four points.
46:25
Speaker 1: I mean that that's huge money then coming in on
46:28
Speaker 1: the Rams. So I like what he's thinking of here
46:31
Speaker 1: where the Rams. It's all these people who play trends.
46:34
Speaker 1: The Cowboys haven't been the team of the winning recording.
46:36
Speaker 1: The Rams have a winning record, but um, we might
46:40
Speaker 1: not be getting any good value here on the Rams.
46:42
Speaker 1: I think we're getting terrible value on the Rams. We
46:46
Speaker 1: might be, but I see the Rams winning this game
46:50
Speaker 1: there as much as the Cowboys are playing for, the
46:53
Speaker 1: Rams are playing for more. Because the Cowboys still know
46:55
Speaker 1: they can lose this game, it doesn't matter. They just
46:57
Speaker 1: have to beat the Eagles. All right. Well, then let's
47:00
Speaker 1: get to some games. Those are Darren's. We're putting a
47:03
Speaker 1: question Mare next to the Rams, ignoring the others. I
47:06
Speaker 1: don't hate Seattle. I'll put Seattle on our maybe list. Um,
47:12
Speaker 1: and we're definitely taking the Redskins. So we got one
47:15
Speaker 1: game in. Well, we probably promised them one, so we'll
47:19
Speaker 1: figure out which one that is. Jesus great, it's gonna
47:22
Speaker 1: be the Rams of the Seahawks. Yeah, okay, uh, here's
47:27
Speaker 1: what I'm thinking. You're ready. Um, I like Denver at
47:36
Speaker 1: plus eleven or plus ten. Yeah, if that if that
47:42
Speaker 1: number stays above time and a half. Um, it's not
47:45
Speaker 1: so much that we're really believe in it. I mean,
47:49
Speaker 1: I do think the QB is look good for the Broncos, um,
47:53
Speaker 1: but this is more of us just playing a number
47:55
Speaker 1: here where the chiefs this is. This was inflated to
47:57
Speaker 1: start with, So I do think as long as says
48:00
Speaker 1: a book ten, I take that le broncos, I like,
48:03
Speaker 1: what do you have that rated at? I actually have
48:07
Speaker 1: that at ten, so it came down a little bit.
48:10
Speaker 1: I just think it's hard to It's hard to make
48:13
Speaker 1: a number on this game because I don't know what's
48:15
Speaker 1: going on with Mahome's hand. Like they scored three points
48:19
Speaker 1: in the second half against the Patriots, and that wasn't
48:22
Speaker 1: all just because I know Patriots defense is incredible and
48:24
Speaker 1: adjustments and everything like that, but that was more than
48:26
Speaker 1: just protecting my homescott. I think something's going on with
48:28
Speaker 1: that hand. So I like that number a lot. So
48:30
Speaker 1: it's possible he could like if you didn't even play,
48:34
Speaker 1: then you're getting huge value if we get this line
48:36
Speaker 1: at ten a half or ten tomorrow night, right, And
48:38
Speaker 1: that's it's so great with West like the West Gates supercuts,
48:41
Speaker 1: they hang these lines early, they stay stay as this,
48:44
Speaker 1: so you can get really good value with that. I
48:46
Speaker 1: think I like Pittsburgh minus two and a half. I
48:49
Speaker 1: love that one too. I think it's funny where they
48:54
Speaker 1: they shouldn't have won that. I mean, they played that
48:56
Speaker 1: last week against the Cardinals, but this team has played
48:59
Speaker 1: very well at home, especially their defense, and watching Alan
49:02
Speaker 1: that week, I think that Baltimore the way they're playing
49:06
Speaker 1: and was really smart where they are containing where you
49:08
Speaker 1: couldn't get out because he's really good outside the pocket.
49:11
Speaker 1: And if you look at the Steelers line with Watt
49:13
Speaker 1: and a couple other linebackers, they're really fast. So I
49:16
Speaker 1: like this matchup a lot for the Steelers. I'm on
49:18
Speaker 1: that side to what do you haven't rated appen? I
49:21
Speaker 1: got the Steelers the minus three, so a lot of
49:24
Speaker 1: books right now I'm seeing one one and a half,
49:26
Speaker 1: so we're getting good value there. Definitely getting value, all right.
49:28
Speaker 1: We talked about the Rams the other game that I like.
49:32
Speaker 1: I do like Minnesota minus two and a half. I
49:36
Speaker 1: do too in the sense that it's the Chargers. I
49:41
Speaker 1: mean that the Jaguars there really are that. They were
49:45
Speaker 1: one of the worst teams I've seen this year. Like
49:46
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks they have completely fallen apart
49:48
Speaker 1: and given up, and the Chargers exploded on that was
49:51
Speaker 1: a lot of We know the Charges are a good team,
49:54
Speaker 1: but I think in this matchup. Everything really does favor
49:57
Speaker 1: the Vike teams. I mean they they're probably of a
50:00
Speaker 1: home crowd here at Charger Stadium, So I like that.
50:02
Speaker 1: Vikings number two, what did you rate it at? Not
50:07
Speaker 1: getting crazy good value? Vikings minus three and a half? Dude,
50:12
Speaker 1: you're over a key number at one point, like that
50:13
Speaker 1: was the look aheadline. The look aheadline was three and
50:15
Speaker 1: a half or four. So I feel like you're getting
50:18
Speaker 1: great value there, great value. You're getting great value. Uh.
50:22
Speaker 1: It's making me nervous though, that it's coming down, because
50:25
Speaker 1: that means my brother and the Sharps, they they were
50:28
Speaker 1: they were the ones taking the Chargers, so they're the
50:29
Speaker 1: ones that are bended down. Dude, I don't think so.
50:31
Speaker 1: I think this game reopened at two and a half.
50:33
Speaker 1: I think I don't think Uh yeah, I don't think
50:36
Speaker 1: people were betting it. I think it's just that's where
50:38
Speaker 1: that's how it reopened after the Chargers beat up the
50:41
Speaker 1: Jacks last week. Wow, it's actually really surprising here are
50:48
Speaker 1: here are six games go ahead? What do you want
50:50
Speaker 1: to say? I would say if we really liked I mean,
50:54
Speaker 1: with these big dogs, a team that I like, that's
50:58
Speaker 1: just a short favorite that. I know it's probably not
51:01
Speaker 1: the greatest spot just because I've been winning so much
51:04
Speaker 1: on the Titans and we haven't really been playing them.
51:07
Speaker 1: I do think it is another another spot where it's
51:11
Speaker 1: a divisional game and they're at home, So this is
51:14
Speaker 1: kind of game where you can back to Titans. But
51:18
Speaker 1: I know you're probably gonna say that they're not getting
51:20
Speaker 1: an value because it's already to minus three, so you're
51:22
Speaker 1: probably right, you probably lost that value. I think we
51:24
Speaker 1: totally lost it. I think we only play it if
51:26
Speaker 1: it gets back to two and a half. Yeah, I'm
51:29
Speaker 1: just look at that and I'm seeing it's update. It's
51:30
Speaker 1: minus three, so that's probably what they're gonna put in
51:32
Speaker 1: the contest. So yeah, we can pass on the Titans. Alright.
51:35
Speaker 1: So here's the games we got. We're definitely on the Redskins.
51:39
Speaker 1: We have to choose one from Darren Rams or Seattle.
51:46
Speaker 1: I personally, I'll feel I'll feel better about just doing
51:49
Speaker 1: Seattle because I think I think that they gave up.
51:52
Speaker 1: But we'll see what Darren wants to do when we
51:54
Speaker 1: talk to him. I think he prefers Seattle. Okay, so
52:00
Speaker 1: then we have Redskins in Seattle. So we have three
52:04
Speaker 1: and four to choose from Denver plus ten and a half,
52:08
Speaker 1: Steelers minus two and a half, Minnesota minus two and
52:11
Speaker 1: a half, Titans minus three. Let's let's do the tines off.
52:17
Speaker 1: Let's suck in the Steelers. That's that's probably my favorite
52:21
Speaker 1: sharp sharp line we have. Okay, and then we can
52:25
Speaker 1: do the chalk with the Vikings, because that's that's just
52:27
Speaker 1: that's a good number with them. As long as the
52:29
Speaker 1: stays under three. I'll take that, I agree. So then
52:31
Speaker 1: we got Denver plus ten and a half or Timber
52:33
Speaker 1: plus ten. Yeah, yeah, definitely definitely keep Denver and we'll
52:37
Speaker 1: monitor that, see what's going on the homes, because that
52:40
Speaker 1: that's a really good number. All right, So here's what
52:42
Speaker 1: we got, Redskins plus four and a half, Seattle minus six,
52:46
Speaker 1: Denver plus ten, ten and a half, Steelers minus two
52:49
Speaker 1: and a half, Minnesota minus two and a half. Well, alright, buddy,
52:54
Speaker 1: let's let's stay hot, keep it rolling. Simon Hunter, wise
52:56
Speaker 1: guy who was getting us in the money. You're the best.
52:59
Speaker 1: Talk to you next week. You're good man. All right.
53:02
Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Action Network. I
53:05
Speaker 1: am Chad Melman. Join us again next week as we
53:09
Speaker 1: continue to chase one point five million dollars and I
53:12
Speaker 1: continue to chase picking winners to bust. In the Action
53:19
Speaker 1: Network app, you can rate, review, subscribe from Apple Podcast,
53:23
Speaker 1: Download from Apple Podcast, download from radio dot Com, search
53:26
Speaker 1: the Favorites, or wherever you get your podcast. Until next time,
53:31
Speaker 1: I Love you,