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Government Re-Opening Rally?🚨Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The government set for a reopening. Could this spark a
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: rally into the crypto market today? We'll break it down
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: for you. I don't want to miss it. Let's get started.
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• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Kudos to them.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Let's go over to the first item I want to
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: hit on, and this is the US House of Representatives
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: now getting ready to vote on a bill to officially
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: end a forty three day government shutdown at seven pm today,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: if this happens, this will spark possibly some movement. I
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: want to go to this first clip. This we'll give
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: you guys a little bit of a breakdown of what
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: is up and what to expect.
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: Take a look, hey Carl, Well, yeah, you know the
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: House they're expected to be back to start the process
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: voting at four o'clock today. Final vote is probably not
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: going to come until a little bit later around seven o'clock,
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: and these are the final votes needed to reopen the government.
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: Once the bill is passed and signed, federal workers are
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: expected to get their paychecks as soon as possible, although
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: of course it could take a few days to process
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: those depending on which areas of the government that they
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: work in. For airports, that could take a little bit longer. Obviously,
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: you are going to have folks receiving pay, they are
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: being encouraged to come back to work. And as far
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: as data, look, there's been some data that that's been
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: ready to go now for the last forty some days
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: in terms of its job reports from September. But as
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: far as other things, a lot of the folks who
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: were collecting the data in the BLS or its CPI
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: and job numbers, they weren't there, they were furloughed, they
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: weren't collect things, and so we're going to kind of
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: see exactly when this data does come out. Is it
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: based on retroactive data? I think there are some questions
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: about how accurate it is based on what the format
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: and the data that they have, and some of that
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: could take a little bit longer to get started. But
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: we are expecting to get some more clarity once the
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: government reopens.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: All right, So government reopening likelihood holding on polymarket at
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: ninety seven percent between the twelfth and fifteen, so today
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: and through the end of the week. That looks like
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: it's going to happen. Now, the real question is what
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: does it do to the market. Many people would say, well,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: there may be some pent up demand here in terms
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: of the data, which could come in very negatively for
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: the market. And then also you could just look at
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: in general that this doesn't necessarily move the market because
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: there is so much you know, anticipation of where this
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: might change in terms of all these past paychecks they're
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: going to be hitting all these employees. So does that
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: mean that people might have a little extra cash because
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: they've been kind of holding back. Do they go into
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the market with it. Who knows where this is going
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: to go. But the key here is we are going
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: to have an open government other things. Right now you've
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: got poly Market partnering with Yahoo. This is not as
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: big of a thing I don't think now. Granted I
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: love poly Market. I think it's going to be one
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: of the biggest prediction markets out there. Don't necessarily think
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: y'aho is the perfect thing. I think they're going to
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: end up with a lot more partnerships that will be.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: Much more relevant.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: But one of them, of course, is what Shane's talking
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: about right here, and he's announcing a poly Market multi
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: year partnership with price Picks, which will get very interesting
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: because this will get into all sorts of betting that
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: will flow into this. Remember you've got a potential here
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: where poly Market could be setting up for just imagine
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: this they go IPO. I'm just thinking down the road,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: do an acquisition of draft Kings. That's the kind of
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: thing that could occur around where Polymarket is going. Lots
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: of growth opportunity for them. Bitcoin rally is stalling right
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: now as anamal and start warning of another drop before
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: a recovery. Let me know what you guys think. Do
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: you think we get another drop? We had a nice
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: little run here this week, but have retraced literally as
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: time of recording, back down to one oh one. So
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: what do you guys think? Drop some comments down below.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Let me know what you guys think in terms of
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: where bitcoin is going to be at the end of November.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: If you're not a subscriber, do that right now as well.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Let me go over here to this point because this
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: is one of the things that I think is another
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: bullish catalyst that could start the market to move a
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: little bit here. And this is seven out of twelve
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Federal Reserve governors who basically are supporting a fifty basis
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: rate point cut for December.
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: This would be huge because prior to this it was.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Just Mirron that was kind of shouting the fifty basis points.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Many people I've talked to have still said that it's
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: likelihood to get the quarter is probably the case. And
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: if you look at what the polymarket is on this
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: right now, all zoom on that the quarter is holding
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: it around seventy one percent the fifty. Look at that
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: two point two That is extremely low for seven different people,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: possibly on the verge of dissenting out of the twelve
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: So right now I would put much more weight in
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: a fifty basis point cut on December the tenth, So
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: be on the lookout of where that might look like
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: going forward. Bitcoin projected value at November's end right here
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: is the first pole that says by November, at the
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: end of November, we'll have a one hundred and twenty
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: k bitcoin price, and that is holding in a thirty
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: eight percent of that pole right there. But I still
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: love to see what you guys think. Are you in
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: line with this poll right here on one hundred and
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: twenty k by the end of November. Let me know
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: other things that are happening right now in DC. Of course,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: the industry wants more clarity on the Senate ag Market
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Structure draft. This is the draft that's coming through. They
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: are not necessarily in favor of it. There are a
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: few points to highlight here. Much of the block chain
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: related language remains in brackets, meaning it's just not there,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: signaling the lawmakers right now have yet to come to
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: a consensus, and the entire section on DeFi and anti
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: money laundering were left empty.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: This is not a good sign.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: This is probably going to push the Clarity Act back
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: even further. Now, will it pass this year? Maybe in December.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's coming by Thanksgiving at all right
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: now based on what we're seeing so far.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: But will it pass this year, that's the real question.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Let me jump to this tweet right here, because this
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: kind of is in align with what the Clarity Act
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: is talking about. And this is the SEC Commissioner talking
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: about that the token taxonomy to redefine crypto regulation is
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: now under way. He was unveiling this, and he doesn't
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: necessarily think that this is going to slow them down,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: and in fact, without the Market Structure Bill being in place,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: so they're already setting up for this, so it could
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: just be a formality before we actually see this.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: That's where the SEC is looking at it right now.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Timing on the Senate ADS Market Structure Bill markup right now,
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: John Boozman, he's pointing at this date right here, which
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: is potentially early December, so still before the end of
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: the year, and that is kind of where we are
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: right now. This again could be the right timing for
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: the markets to react to this, because I do think
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: this will be one of the catalysts they help lead
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: it forward. Other things that are hitting right now. Of
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: course Matt Hogan hits on this, and that is Coinbase
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: relaunching their icos and of course uniswap throws the fee switch.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: This is a new era for capital formation. I agree
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: with Matt Hogan on this. We talked about this yesterday
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: on the show. This is a big thing. Coinbase, of
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: course laid it out right here if you look at
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: over on their website. This is the breakdown of the
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: new standard for token sales. Not necessarily a masterful piece
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: here in terms of a lot of things you have
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: to do. Basically, it's filling up from the bottom. Their
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: request window is a little bit different and also putting
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: users first.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: So the clarity is right there.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Could we see though, others start to go in this
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: direction for a platform for icos, thinking about Robinhood maybe
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: going in this direction. So good news I think for
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: being able to raise capital. JPM of course launched some
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: interesting news. This was a statement that they put out
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: and this was all about JP Morgan now being able
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: to swap JP Morgan D for USDC on Base.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: Now the question will be where do the fees come from?
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Because this is starting to isolate a lot of activity
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: into zones right now that have been mostly populated by
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Base and Circle collecting those fees. Question is will this
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: be a transitionary period for JP Morgan or will they
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: be actually foregoing some of the fees in the market.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: That's an issue that I think is going to be
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: facing big banks in the near future, So get ready
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: for that. Other things I want to hit on right now,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: of course, Suey announced their big news and that is
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: its very own stable coin, and this of course is
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: coming under USD Suey. You guys of course can learn
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: and this is the first native, true native stable coin
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: that could be a big factor out there earning yield.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: And this will be a big factor, I think as.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: We see what sue is going to do with being
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: able to get it out there, because the biggest issue
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I think most stable coin suppliers have is distribution. Now
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Sue's got some and I think the audience probably when
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: I say the audience of a sue owner.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: Yes, but are they drawing in more users?
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: I think that's the real question that they have to
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: compete against others that are doing a fairly good job
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: on that, especially if you look at coinbas and Circle
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: and others that kind of go in this direction of
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: having good distribution. That's the key point here. But one
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: thing that will draw them in is going to be
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: this incentives. So this is the incentive's just got refreshed
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: across single asset vaults and they look pretty good right
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: here if you just look at sue USDT at nine
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: to three and then there's deep at twenty nine percent.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: So some pretty interesting things happening over on Kui Finance.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: You guys should check it out. It's an interesting platform.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Other things that are happening right now. You've got the
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Besant coming in talking about another two thousand dollars tariff
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: stimulus check that it's going to basically be available for
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Americans who make less than one hundred k a year,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: and of course that means people like in the because
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, really, if you think about it, for a
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: lot of people, especially in states like California that may
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: not even be considered in the right bracket. If you
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: take a look at this clip, this kind of breaks
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: down what else they're going to offer as a potential
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: stimulus to the economy.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: I'm also the IRS commissioner, so what I can see
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: is that with the President's signature campaign promises no tax
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on solid security,
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: auto deductibility of loans if you buy an American car.
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: Americans didn't change their withholding for twenty twenty five, so
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: we're going to see substantial refunds for working families at
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: the beginning in the first quarter twenty five, though chains
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: are withholding at the beginning of the year, and that
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: will be a natural real wage growth.
• 11:08
  Speaker 5: So two things the President's thrown out, and I'll just
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: tell you what he said to make it shorter. He said, Hey,
• 11:12
  Speaker 5: I'm thinking about two thousand dollars stimulus checks coming from
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: the tariffs to everybody, and fifty year mortgages first off
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: on the two thousand dollars stimulus checks. Isn't that like
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: paying using your overdraft to pay off your credit cards?
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: Or isn't it like, you know, taking money from a
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: credit card and paying off your bills. Do you think
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: that that's the most fin financially responsible thing to do.
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: Well, there are a lot of options here that the
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: President's talking about. It a two thousand dollars rebate, and
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: those that would be for families making less than say,
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: one hundred thousand dollars.
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: Have you decided on that yet?
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: We haven't, all right, so it seems still a little
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: bit uncertain as to win and if this is going
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: to happen. I noticed though, that in that clip Bessant
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: is doubling down on all these other you know, natural effects.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: He's even talking about changing with holding. Yes, I understand
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: that reduces your tax implication, but if you don't have
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: the deductions now he is saying that there are some
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: deductions that have been.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Awarded to that.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: That of course is almost like you know, a tax
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: rebate in essence that he's kind of doubling down. I
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: wonder if he's going to back into that being the
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: stimulus for the economy.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna be a little curious on this. Let
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: me go to another clip, because this is well as
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Fargo talking about where this market could go from here.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: Take a look, oh son, it's good to have you here.
• 12:36
  Speaker 6: Thanks, Rymy.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: You're calling for and everything rally in the year end.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: Tell me more.
• 12:40
  Speaker 6: Yeah, so we're targeting seventy one hundred by a year
• 12:42
  Speaker 6: end this year. Yeah, I think everything's gonna rally. The
• 12:45
  Speaker 6: market's gonna market is starting to broaden now, and we
• 12:48
  Speaker 6: see about five reasons why we think everything's scoring the valley.
• 12:52
  Speaker 6: Number One seasonality, especially for the Laggers. November, December, and
• 12:55
  Speaker 6: January are the most positive months for the Laggers. Number
• 13:00
  Speaker 6: to the APA Terris refund potential refund. We saw the
• 13:03
  Speaker 6: hearing last week. We expect the rulings sometime in December
• 13:07
  Speaker 6: or January. I think there's gonna be a reflation trade
• 13:10
  Speaker 6: into that event. Number Three, the texture turn. The tature
• 13:13
  Speaker 6: turn is going to be bigger this year because of
• 13:15
  Speaker 6: what beg curityful bill. We're talking about eight hundred dollars
• 13:18
  Speaker 6: per person on average versus last year, so that's going
• 13:21
  Speaker 6: to be another reflation event into next year. Earnings were
• 13:24
  Speaker 6: positive and potential government reopened sometimes this week hopefully. Our
• 13:29
  Speaker 6: central indicator actually triggered a by signal. It's the contrarian signal,
• 13:33
  Speaker 6: so sentiment act actually has gotten really negative as of
• 13:35
  Speaker 6: last Friday. So historically when our sentimentary by A signals triggered,
• 13:41
  Speaker 6: we saw the SMB five hundred rallying about seven and
• 13:44
  Speaker 6: a half percent over the next three months, being positive
• 13:47
  Speaker 6: ninety percent of the time. So this is a very
• 13:48
  Speaker 6: strong signal that we've got, all.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Right, some interesting signals on trad fi here. But if
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: you look at the crypto market here fear and greed,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: this may be the signal right now of where we
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: are because we are almost at the bottom again around
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: fear and greed.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: If you kind of look at where we have.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Come from, imagine right there, back in October we were
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: holding at a sixty two. Bitcoin price was one twenty
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: four at the time, and even if you go back
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: into the previous which was back in May, bitcoin was
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: still only at one oh seven. So this is an
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: intriguing scenario that could play out through November, December, and January.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: To Wells Fargo's analyst point right there is that sentiment
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: may be lifting in the market. Let me go to
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: one more thing right here, and of course this is
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: still bullish. This is for Ethereum. The Fusaka upgrade is coming,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: and it's coming on December fourth. I know this has
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: been moved, but looks like December fourth is going to
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: be the new day. Remember the last time this happened
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: with Petra, eighth jumped forty percent, So nice little move there.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Could this happen with Ethereum. Let me know what you
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: guys think. Let's dive over to the chart real quick,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: and I've got this marked out. This is the period
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: of when Pectra launched. In that seven day window, we
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: had about a fifty two percent move on ethereum, So
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: nice little move there. If you look at where we
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: are right now on e Let's go over and take
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: a look at this, because one thing to consider, do
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: we get that kind of move from where we're trading
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: right now at around thirty three eighty five, this would
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: be somewhere in the range of that five K window
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: that we've been kind of looking at for some time.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Could Fusaka be the catalyst that takes Ethereum to new
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: all time highs and into five K. It's going to
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: be a good one to let me know what you
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: guys think down in the comments. Of course, if you're
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: not part of the Diamond Circle, make sure and get
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: in on that. It's our own free group. It's absolutely
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: easy to join. Just click the link down below, follow
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: me out there on X and we'll catch you next
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: time right here on the Paul Barnshew