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Fifteen More Week 3 Picks and Model Edges · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Well, we went through the 10 best games. Now we've
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: got to go through 15 more games for week three
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: of the 2026 college football season. Welcome in. This is
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Winning Cures Everything. It is a college football podcast. I'm
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: your host, Gary Seekers, at GaryWCE on all the different socials. Hopefully,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: you're already subscribed to this channel. If you haven't, what
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: are you waiting for? Go ahead and hit that button.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Jump into the comments. Let me know your picks. All
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: that good stuff. I want to know what you're doing
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: with it. Tell me what you're doing. All right. We're
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: going to see how quickly we can get through 15 games.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: I think we can do it in 45 minutes. But
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go through, give you my pick, give
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: you a couple of notes about the games, and then
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: we'll go from there. So we're going to talk about
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: the record right quick. Thus far on the season, 25
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: and 18 official show picks. The model picks are 26
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: and 17 in these official, the ones that I've put
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: on the show. How's that? Underdog picks, 10 and 11.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: I'm normally better with the dogs. Favorites have been wily
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: this year. I'll tell you that. Last week, 5 and
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: 5 on the show against the number. Model was 6
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: and 4. Dogs were only 4 and 5 last week.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: My numbers loved the dogs last week. Loved them. Loved them.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: This week, it's a little more favorites, but We'll get
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: the model tweaked. We'll get it there. All right, let's
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: not waste time. Let's get to game number one. All right,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Colorado at Northwestern starts us off. This one's Saturday, 6.30 p.m.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Central Time. This one is at Ryan Field. It is
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: the grand opening of the new stadium, and I think
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Northwestern fans are feeling pretty good about it. Northwestern favored
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: by 3.5, total of 47.5 on this one. It opened
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Northwestern minus 4.5 with a 45.5 total. half a point
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: or a full point to Colorado and two points up
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: on the total. Kind of surprised. Colorado 2-0 thus far
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: this season. They won 14-13 at Georgia Tech on the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Thursday opener. Then, of course, they beat Weber State last
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: week 52-21. Northwestern 1-0. They are coming off of a bye.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Their only bye of the season they had in week two.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: That is gross, but it could help them for this game.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: 34-18 win over South Dakota State in week one. Um,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Did nothing last week. Extra week of prep for a
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: team that's installing a new offense. That's probably good. The
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: new offense has Chip Kelly as the offensive coordinator. Aiden
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Childs is the Michigan State transfer that has come in
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: that's playing quarterback. David Braun is in year four. He's
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: 20-19 overall, coming off a 7-6 season. Included a road
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: win at Penn State last year. Colorado as a road
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: dog of three pluses, 3-5 against the spread. Northwestern is
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: a home favorite of 3-plus, is 5-3 against the spread.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Both of these are just eight-game samples, kind of small.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: They're over the last two years. Pretty noise adjacent, but
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: they do agree. This is interesting. If you like Northwestern,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: the question is whether Colorado's defense, only giving up 13
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: points to Georgia Tech in Week 1, does that defense travel?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: I tend to believe that it does. My number on this,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: the model has a Northwestern minus three. These are both
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: teams that are outside of the top 50 as far
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: as on three full roster talent, but number 53, number 59,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: it's kind of a wash as far as the overall
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: talent goes. So far, Northwestern, just in one game, is
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: playing better than Colorado, but they haven't played an FBS
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: team yet. So take that with a grain of salt,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: if you will. don't know exactly what to make of
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: this Northwestern team. Colorado, I think, surprised some people. They
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: went with a different philosophy with Transfer Portal this year.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: They brought in players that have proven production. Kind of surprised.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: They had production in other places, and now they're producing.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Who would have thought? Uh, This feels like a Northwestern
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: field goal win to me. I don't believe. I just
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: think three and a hook is too much. How's that?
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I trust the model here. I think Northwestern wins this
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: game by exactly three points. I think that is a
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: cover for Colorado. I think Northwestern gets the win, though. So,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: give me Colorado plus three and a half on this one.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Next game up, we've got a neutral site game with
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Virginia and West Virginia. This one in Charlotte, 6.30 p.m.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ACC Network. Virginia favored by 10 points here,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: a total of 54.5. It opened Virginia minus 8.5 and
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: has jumped up 50.5 total. Four points up on the total, 1.5
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: towards the Hoos here. Virginia beat NC State 34-18 in
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Charlottesville in Week 1. Sorry, 34-8. Did I say 18? Anyway,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: it was a beating. Absolute beating. And then 59-3 over
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Norfolk State. Tony Elliott started 11-23 in his first three
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: years of Virginia. He's now won 13 of his last 16.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Had 11 wins last year. They look pretty good. Look
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: pretty good thus far. West Virginia also 2-0, 31-24. Winners
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: over Coastal Carolina. And then last week, a 52-7 win
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: over UT Martin. The ground-and-pound operation is led by the
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: transfers Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook. The plan, I think,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: is pretty obvious. Like, shorten the game, keep Virginia's offense
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: on the sideline. That's what they want to do. Can
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: they do it? I don't know. Some interesting stuff going
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: on off the field for West Virginia. The former Mountaineers
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: running back, Noel Devine, was placed on leave after a
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: rest Sunday. Probably going to come up with the broadcast.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Just be ready for it. Be ready for it. West
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Virginia in non-conference games over the last two seasons won
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: 6-1 against the spread. It's ugly. Absolutely ugly. Virginia... This
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: one I thought was interesting. Because this total is sitting at, what, 54.5? Yeah, 54.5.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Virginia as a favorite is 3-10.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: So.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: 10 unders in 13 games as a favorite. That's pretty wild.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Rich Rod with a total of 54.5 or higher is
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: 7-11 as far as over-unders. So 11 unders, 7 overs.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: That's two trends that independently say the total is too high.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: The market moved it up four points anyway. I don't
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: know what to make of that. There's going to be
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: a lot of running here. I kind of like the under,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: but I'm here to pick sides. There's a lot of
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: hype for Virginia, and this just feels like the kind
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: of game where it kind of gets stuck in the
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: mud a little bit. Both teams are probably able to
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: run the ball a little bit, I would imagine. Although,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: I will tell you, West Virginia is going to have
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: a very difficult time stopping Virginia. I just don't think
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Virginia is going to score a lot of points. If
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: West Virginia gets some points up, they might be able
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: to hang within this. So I'll go with the Mountaineers
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: to cover the 10. Feels like a lot of points.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: The model has it, Virginia minus 9.6. So I'll trust
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: the model here. I'm going to go with the dog.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Give me West Virginia to keep this thing close. I
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: think Virginia still probably gets that win. But I don't
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: think it looks the same as what we saw against
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: NC State in Week 0. I think Virginia is a
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: good football team. I don't think they're great by any
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: stretch of the imagination. I just realized that my success
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: margin and whatnot isn't looking good. Got to figure out
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: what was going on with the spreadsheet on this. But, yeah,
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: I think this is just a touch too much hype
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: for Virginia on this. So I will take West Virginia
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: plus 10 in this one. Game number three, Miami at
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest. This one is a Friday night game, 6.30 p.m.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ESPN. And yes, Miami, a third straight
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: week where they are not playing on a Saturday. Weird.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Line currently has Miami favored by 22.5, a total of 55.5
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: on this. It opened Miami minus 19.5 with a 50.5 total.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: People are loving what Miami's offense is able to do.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, Darian Mensah and company are... scoring at will
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: on everybody. Can Jake Dickert and Scotty Hazleton find a
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: way to slow them down? I don't know that I
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: believe it. We'll see. We'll see. So far on the year,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Miami 2-0, 45-6 at Stanford, 77-7 over Florida A & M.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: National runner-up last year. Big-time stuff. Wake Forest also 2-0,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: 38-16 over Akron, then 38-36 at Purdue. They have not
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: covered either one of those lines. They went ugly. They
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: went close. This is not one of those kind of
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: games where they can afford to do that. Jake Dickert,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: as an underdog, is 6-4 against the spread. Miami, as
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: a favorite of 7-plus on the road, is just 3-5
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: against the spread. Obviously, one of those came against Stanford
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: this year, but in the last two years, 2-5 against
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: the number. That's a big trend. That's a really big trend.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: This number at 22 22.5, my model has it Miami
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: minus 15.6. I think Wake Forest can score at least
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Now, Corey Heatherman's doing amazing things with
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: his defense. Absolutely amazing stuff. Their success margin is number 3.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Their PPA margin, that's predicted points added margin, is number 2.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Their explosive margin is number 11. So they're not giving
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: up big plays, and they're creating their own, and they're
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: able to move the ball, and they're keeping everybody from
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: moving it. But Stanford and Florida A & M are
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: completely different than Wake Forest. I think Gio Lopez can
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of success here. I think they
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: can do some good things. This is a sold-out, small stadium.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: I don't think that Wake wins the game or even
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: has a chance to win the game, but you're telling
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: me that I can get them with, More than three touchdowns? Yeah,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I'll probably go that direction. Give me Wake Forest plus 22.5.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: I'm going another dog here, but it's a Friday night
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: home dog. I don't think it necessarily means that Miami
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: is going to do anything crazy. But, you know, 42
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: to 17? That's not going to give me a cover,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: is it? 42 to 20? Miami scores 38, 38 to 17, 38, 17.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: That's all I need. Boy, I don't feel great about it.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest plus 22 and a half is the show
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: play here. Michigan state travels to Notre Dame. This one,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: 6 30 PM central time on Saturday on NBC, Notre Dame,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: 29 and a half point favorites, total of 52 and
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: a half. Uh, it opened at 53 and a half.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: The total has dropped a little bit. Um, Notre Dame
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: 2-0 thus far on the year, 41-13 over Wisconsin on
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Sunday of week one. They didn't look great in that game,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: but 52-0 last week over Rice. They did what they
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: had to do, is what it is. Notre Dame has
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: now won 12 straight games, all of them by double digits.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: That is the longest streak by anybody since 2019. Granted,
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: they have played nobody of note in that time span.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Michigan State 2-0. Pat Fitzgerald era has started pretty well.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: 30-20 over Toledo in Week 1, probably should have been
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: more than that. 35-7 over Eastern Michigan last week. Nothing
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: about any of this tells you what they're going to
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: look like going to South Bend at all. Michigan State
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: has lost 12 straight games against AP Top 5 teams,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: all of them in blowout fashion. Michigan State has a
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: road dog of 10-plus, 5-0 against the spread in the
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: last two years, so Jonathan Smith was doing something to
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: cover those numbers. Small sample size, but 5-0 is 5-0.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame is a favorite of 14-plus at home, 7-3
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: against the spread. 7-3. They cover big numbers. Two trends,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: of course, in opposite directions. And I don't feel like
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: anybody really wants to lay this number. Does Marcus Freeman
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: keep his foot down? Like, what are we... I like
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Michigan State's special teams. I like their defense a little bit.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: I'm curious about the offensive line for Michigan State. Can
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: they hold up against Notre Dame's defensive line? There's some
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: interesting pieces on the Michigan State team. The model has
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: it Notre Dame minus 23.8. So I'm going to go
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: with the dog again. I think it's going to be slow.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: It's going to be plotting. It's going to be one
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: of those kind of games. I don't necessarily trust Notre
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Dame yet, and this will be the most difficult team
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: that they've played. They played Wisconsin, but they didn't look
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: great against Wisconsin. They had to have turnovers. Notre Dame
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: number three in turnover margin. They're number 104 in explosive margin.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: But Michigan State's number 123. in explosive margin as well
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: so another one of these teams super explosive they're not
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: great at creating explosive plays we'll say that I think
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Pat Fitzgerald can drag this one into the mud a
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: little bit I don't think it's going to be particularly
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: close but 29.5 is more than four touchdowns I don't
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: think Notre Dame just blows them out of the water
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: here I think Michigan State can hang around a little
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: bit so I will go with the dog yet again
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: that's four straight dogs to open up this show Michigan
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: State plus 29.5. Give me the Spartans. Give me the
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: fighting Pat Fitzgeralds. I think they can hang around for
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Let's make the trek over to Wembley
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Stadium in London. This is the Union Jack Classic. Big 12,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: what are we doing? What are we doing? Arizona State
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: and Kansas. 11 a.m. Central Time on FS1. Arizona State
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: a six-point favorite. Total of 52.5. It opened Arizona State
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: minus 5.5 with a 56.5 total. The total has dropped
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: four points. Four points. That's intriguing. Kansas is the designated
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: home team, but the game is at Wembley. Again, I
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: don't understand. I don't know why you would want to
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: move a college football game out of a college football stadium,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: but either way, Arizona State is 1-1. They had a
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: big win over Morgan State to start off 70-7, and
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: then a 48-20 loss at Texas A & M where
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: four turnovers, two of those being pick sixes, just blew
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: this thing wide open. I mean, it was a close ballgame.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: They really whipped Texas A & M on the scoreboard,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: as far as the box score goes. But points are
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: what matter. That's how you determine a winner. Kansas 1-1.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: On the year, 51-6 win over LIU, Long Island University.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: And then just got whipped in the second half against
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: Missouri on Friday night last week. 38-21 loss there. Kenny
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Dillingham straight up off a loss, or off of a
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: straight up loss. 11-2-1 against the spread. That's a 14-game
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: sample size. That's pretty good. Leipold as an underdog. 5-5-1
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: against the spread. Seems like Dillingham has the much better
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: trend here. My... So the model has Arizona State minus 4.1.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: The spread is 6. Arizona State has significantly more talent.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: Better success margin. The predicted points added margin is close.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Explosive margin. Arizona State, number 6. Kansas number 69. Both
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: of these teams outside the top 110 in turnover margin.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: So that part has not been great. I'm intrigued about this.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: I think Arizona State is better at the position units
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: that matter. But man, going through and looking at this,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Arizona State's defensive line is pretty good. The offensive line
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: is not great. by any stretch. I don't know that
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: that necessarily means that Kansas is going to be able
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: to stop them from running the football or stop Bowley
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: from being able to throw it. Uh, this trend is
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: so hard to not pay attention to. I'm going to
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: go with it. Uh, Arizona state left almost immediately and
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: went on over to London. I don't know what Kansas did.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Kansas did have an extra day there, but both of
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: these teams got kind of taken by the woodshed by
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: sec teams last week. Uh, I'm going to go against
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: the model. Give me the favorite here. Arizona State minus six.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: I think they're better than people are giving them credit for.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: I think this team will show up, and I think
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: they are better overall. You look at the full roster talent,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Arizona State number 34, Kansas number 65. I think they'll
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: show up here. Give me Arizona State minus the six.
• 18:32
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• 19:00
  Speaker 1: Game number six. This one is a Thursday night battle, 6.30 p.m.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ESPN. In ACC matchup, Pitt hosting the
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Syracuse Orange. Right now the line is Pitt minus 10.5.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Total of 51.5. The total open at 59.5. It has
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: fallen by 8 points. That is a huge, huge move.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Last week, Pitt beat UCF 12-7. I'm going to guess
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: that has something to do with it, but obviously that
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: had a lot to do with weather, etc. Just the
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: way it goes. Pitt is 2-0 thus far, 59-14 over Miami, Ohio.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, the 12-7 slog last week. Syracuse
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: 66-3 over New Hampshire, but then got beat 21-18 at...
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: home to Cal last week. Fran Brown's team led a
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: winnable one getaway, so for those that have the over 4.5
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: season win total, like myself, that one stung. That one stung.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: Pitt is a home favorite, is 8-2 against the spread. Syracuse,
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: of a road dog of seven or more, is four
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: and two against the spread. So both of these teams
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: are really good in this spot. I think everybody just
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: decided that these two offenses are broken. This is a
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: conference matchup Thursday night. Did the correction go too far?
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: I would kind of take the over here if I
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: was really thinking about it. Because... Syracuse, I don't know
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: if Steve Angeli has lost it. That's the quarterback for Syracuse.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: But I do know that Mason Heinschel for Pitt, when
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: he's playing against a not very good defense, which Syracuse
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: does have. The two defenses here are fantastic. Pat Narduzzi,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: obvious defensive mind. But then Vince Karras, who came over
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: from Toledo, I tend to trust what he can do
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: with Syracuse's defense. So we'll see. As far as plays
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: per minute, Syracuse number 32. And so their pace is
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: pretty quick. Pitt is number 88. I would expect that
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: to get better, get faster because Cade Bell, the offensive coordinator, uh,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: prefers that. So looking at this, um, I was a
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: little shocked at how big the, the number was, but
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Pitt is just better at pretty much every position group
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: and they're at home. Narduzzi tends to cover as a
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: home favorite, uh, And the model has Pitt minus 12.1.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: I'm going to side with the model. I think this
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: is closer to two touchdowns. I like Pitt. I like
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: backing the Nardog. Let's go with Pitt minus 10.5. Game
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: number seven. This is a fun G6 non-conference game. We
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: got Mountain West. We got Sunbelt. James Madison goes to
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: San Diego State. This one's Saturday, 9 p.m. Central Time.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: God's time zone on the CW. San Diego State a 1.5
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: point favorite right now. The total of 46.5. The line
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: is just frozen. It is sat here, which almost never happens.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: Nobody really has an opinion on this thing. James Madison,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: 20-13 win at Liberty, then 87-3 over Wagner last week.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: That was a beating of epic proportions last week, what
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: they did to Wagner. New coach, same expectations here. Like
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: Bob Chesney left James Madison. So first Kurt Cignetti leaves
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: James Madison. Then Bob Chesney leaves James Madison. Now they've
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: got Billy Napier back, who is known by everybody as
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: Sunbelt Billy, right? He was fired at Florida in October
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: of last year. He's got 50-plus new faces on the roster.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: They were still picked to repeat as Sunbelt champs because
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: they have got a pretty loaded roster for Sunbelt purposes anyway.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: San Diego State, one and one. Under Sean Lewis, 53-20
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: win over Portland State in the first game, but then
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: lost 28-10 at UCLA last week. Nothing to hang your
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: head about. They were in that game late. Yeah, there's
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: four trends here. First off, you see San Diego State
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: number 105 and on three full roster talent. James Madison
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: number 106. James Madison adjusted returning production number 136. That's
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: way low, but San Diego State number 32. It Based
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: on what they have done thus far this season, James Madison,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: number 33 in success margin, number 15 in PPA margin.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: That's predicted points added. San Diego State is number 125
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: and number 100 in those. Now, to be fair, only
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: one of these teams has played an actual breathing, living
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: football team. And that would be San Diego State last
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: week against UCLA. And they looked okay for parts of that.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: Offense couldn't really do anything, but still. But there's four
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: trends here. that we need to pay attention to in
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: this game. James Madison, 10-2 against the spread in the
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: last 12 non-conference games. James Madison as a road underdog,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: 3-0 against the spread. San Diego State as a home favorite,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: 6-2 against the spread. Sean Lewis as a favorite of
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: less than 14 at home, 5-1 against the spread. Other
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: thing to pay attention to, and some of this was
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: at Florida, but Billy Napier as a road underdog, 1-4
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: against the spread. The trends, for the most part, love
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: James Madison, the program. The coaching trends love San Diego State.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: I'm real curious. This is the late West Coast window
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: on Saturday night. I'm going to go with San Diego
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: State to get this thing done. Everybody loves James Madison.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: Everybody remembers they made the playoff last year, etc. San
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: Diego State is still a pretty good football team. And
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: while my model only has them winning by. 8 points,
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: I'm going to trust that Sean Lewis, favorite of less
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: than 14 at home, 5-1 against the spread. San Diego
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: State is a home favorite, 6-2 against the spread. I'm
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: going to trust that. I think they get this done.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: James Madison, it's been a while since they've had to
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: make a trip like this. I think it finally catches
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: up to them here. I think San Diego State gets
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: the win, and they cover the 1.5. So give me
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: the Aztecs, minus 1.5. Game number eight. When we're going
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: back to the SEC, Georgia heads to Arkansas Saturday. This one,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: 11 a.m. Central time. God's time zone on ABC. It's
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: in Fayetteville. Of course, Georgia, a 24 and a half
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: point road favorite total of 54 and a half. Uh,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: this one opened long time ago at Georgia minus 17
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: and a half. That's a big move. Big, big move. Um,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: But I get it, because Arkansas just got drilled last week,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: 43-10 at Utah in Week 2. This is... And they
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: didn't look great against North Alabama, either. Arkansas has not
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: looked good. Georgia, on the other hand, 63-3 over Tennessee State,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: 70-20 over Western Kentucky. I mean, this is a lot
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: of points. They lead the country in scoring right now,
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: averaging 66.5 points per game. Arkansas... 31 to 14 over
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: North Alabama in that week one game. Uh, and then
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: the Utah beat down last week was just abysmal. There's
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: some pretty loud trends here. Georgia is two and five
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: against the spread as a road favorite. Ryan Silverfield as
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: an underdog four and one against the spread, or well,
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: I guess four and two after last week, Arkansas as
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: a home dog of more than a touchdown, three and
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: one against the spread. Um, In the past two seasons. So,
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: the number moving seven points is pretty wild. I don't
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: add a whole lot for disposing of the teams that
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: you're supposed to. So that's why the model has this
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Georgia minus 18. But man, it's hard to go... It's
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: really hard to go against Georgia here knowing how bad
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Arkansas is. can be but you know noon kick in
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Fayetteville potentially hostile crowd maybe classic backdoor Georgia non-cover everything
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: on this points to Georgia at number two in full
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: roster talent Arkansas number 33 Georgia's number one in success
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: margin and PPA margin so far Arkansas's number 84 and
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: number 118 I cannot imagine there's anything that would work here.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's just nothing that I could envision. So
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: I am going to go with the home underdog here.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: And there's no reasoning behind it. No reasoning other than
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: I just can't get there from a point spread angle.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: So my number is 6.5 off. I'll trust the model here.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: I will go with Arkansas to cover 24.5 at home.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: I don't feel great about it. This team has not
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: looked good. But Georgia's got some really big games coming up.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: I don't expect them to continue to lay it on.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: So I would guess Arkansas will find a way to
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: sneak it to where maybe they only lose by 24. Again,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: I don't feel good about it. I wouldn't bet this game.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Arkansas plus 24.5. Game number nine, and we get to
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: deal with Oklahoma all over again after they looked absolutely
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: putrid against Michigan last week in the big house. They
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: are hosting New Mexico from another more than likely soon-to-be
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: Big Ten coach, Jason Eck, who has got New Mexico
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: playing really, really well right now. Like, really well. Oklahoma
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: is favored by 23.5. This one's 6.30 p.m. Central Time
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: on ESPN2, by the way. Oklahoma, 23.5 point favorites, total
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: of 48.5. It has not moved at all since Sunday.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma started off strong, 51-0 over UTEP. Then they lost
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: 17-10 at Michigan last week. They are still hanging around
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: in the top 25, but by a thread. Number 24 there.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: New Mexico is 2-0, even though they lost their starting quarterback, 38.5.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: at Central Michigan 70-7 over Mercyhurst they I mean it's
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: crazy Oklahoma off of a straight up loss under Brent
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: Venables well at least over the last two seasons I
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: believe it is 6-1-1 against the spread 86% that's 8
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: games it's pretty wild New Mexico as a road dog
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: of more than 21, 3-0 against the spread. Jason Eck
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: is 3-1 against the spread as a road dog of
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: three or more. That's pretty wild. This thing is 23.5.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: Benable's team does historically respond after a loss, and Oklahoma's
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: offense only put up 10 points in Ann Arbor. If
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: they don't hang 35 here, it's going to be interesting.
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: New Mexico is No. 5 in the country in success margin, No.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: 14 in PPA margin. Not the most explosive team, the No.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: 119 there. And they are pretty slow as far as
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: pace of play, No. 123 in place per minute. But
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: they're No. 1 in the country in turnover margin. And
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: you can bait that quarterback at Oklahoma into a few things.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: John Mateer, it does not appear that he has gotten
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: much better. But there's still a huge difference in talent here.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma number 14 in full roster talent, New Mexico number 108.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: And you start diving into position groups and whatnot, that
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: offensive line for New Mexico ain't great. They're going to
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: have trouble blocking Oklahoma's defensive line. And on the other side,
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma's offensive line isn't the best. They're number 26, but
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: New Mexico's defensive line number 78. So I... New Mexico,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: I think, is great. I think it's a really good
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: G6 team. I... I'm going to roll with the Lobos
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: to cover this number, even going against the trend there.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Give me New Mexico plus 23.5. I think they cover
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: on the road against Oklahoma. I don't think this Oklahoma
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: offense is very good, so I don't think you're going
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: to need a lot of points in order to stay
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: within the number. So, New Mexico plus 23.5. The model
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: says Oklahoma minus 20.2. We are going to side with
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: the model there. Game number 10, we've got a Big
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Ten tilt here, and Purdue is heading to UCLA. This
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: one 10 p.m. Saturday Central Time on the Big Ten Network.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: UCLA a 15.5 point favorite, total of 52.5. It opened
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: UCLA minus 14 with a 53.5 total. So it's moved
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: a point and a half in favor of the Bruins.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: I would imagine at some point this thing gets up
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: to like 16, 17 potentially. UCLA 2-0 thus far under
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: Bob Chesney to start off. came over from James Madison, right?
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Went 21 to five there. They went 45 to 24
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: over Cal in week one, then 28 to 10 over
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: San Diego state last week. This is not just competence.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: This looks like a good football team after they went
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: three and nine last year. Last year was just abysmal.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: Purdue one and one under Barry Odom, 44 to 19
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: winners over Indiana state in week one. Then they lost
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: 38 to 36 in overtime at home to wake forest
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: last week. Um, Blowing a home game to an ACC middleweight,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: probably not the way that Odom wanted to start this season,
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: but either way, they were in the game. It was
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: a close game, is what it is. Barry Odom as
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: a road dog of 10-plus is 1-2 against the spread
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: over the past three seasons. That would be this season,
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: last year, and 2024. Bob Chesney off of a spread
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: cover is 6-8 against the number. That's 14 games UCLA
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: did just cover against San Diego State. Kickoff in this
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: is 10 p.m. Is the Rose Bowl going to be
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: kind of empty? I'm curious. Purdue is flying three time
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: zones for a late window here. Kind of curious. Kind
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: of curious. This thing's up to 15.5. I would wait
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: and see if it gets any higher. But the model
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: has UCLA minus 13.4. Now, Do I think UCLA is
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: immensely more successful this year than they were last year? Absolutely.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: PPA margin still number 53 in the country. It's not great.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: Purdue is number 70 there. As far as success rate margin,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: UCLA number 28 and Purdue number 62. As far as
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: full roster talent, UCLA 36, Purdue number 67. And UCLA
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: better at pretty much every position group out there. Just
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: significantly better. And yet, I still think UCLA has bigger
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: fish to fry. I don't think they're so worried about
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: this game. I don't think that this is a Cignetti
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: situation where he's just trying to beat everybody's brains in.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Not to mention the model has it a little under
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: two touchdowns. So if we're getting 15.5, that's two points
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: of value on this. I'm going to roll with Barry Odom.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: I know it's not ideal by any stretch. Betting on
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: Purdue has not been great for bettors over the past
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: however long, but I don't think they're that bad, and
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I don't think UCLA is that good. So give me Purdue.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Give me the Boilermakers plus 15.5 on the road. We're
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: going to agree with the model on this one. We
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: got an ACC battle on Saturday, 3 p.m. Central Time
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: in Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. The Duke
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: Blue Devils taking on the Stanford Cardinal. And good gracious
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: on this one. Duke favored by 9.5. It opened 10.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Half point back to Stanford. But 50.5 on that total.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Kind of interesting. I'm surprised that anybody has bet Stanford
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: on this. I don't really get it. Because Duke has
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: looked absolutely friggin' awesome this year. Nate Shepard is a
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: But I guess when you start looking at success rate margin,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: you start looking at PPA margin, Duke is really explosive.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: They're good at not turning the ball over, but this
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: team feels really, really good. Like, really good. Stanford is
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: 1-1 on the year, 37-27 winners over Hawaii in Week 0.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: They got flattened by Miami in Week 1, 45-6. That
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: is the... I mean, God bless. It was just ugly. Ugly.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Duke is 2-0. 17-3 winners over Tulane in Week 1.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: 31-27 at Tulane at Illinois last week. That is one
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: of three ACC road wins over the Big Ten from
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: last week. Duke in conference games. 12-3-2 against the spread.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: That is 80% over 17 games. That is insane. Stanford
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: as a road underdog? 3-9 against the spread. That is
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: 25% in the last 12 games. That is ridiculous. As
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: far as the total goes, it's 50.5. Stanford with a
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: total under 50.5. 9-4 to the over. Duke with a
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: total of 50-54.5. 8-4 to the over. So I would
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: probably look at the over on this. But the model
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: has Duke minus 14.9. They have been playing outstanding football
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: this year. Like, I really like what Manny Diaz is doing.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: Tevita Pritchard, I think, will get it there for Stanford. But, oh,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: I kind of like it over. And I will take
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: the Blue Devils as the home favorites. Minus 9.5. Stanford
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: don't cover on the road. Duke always covers conference games.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: Give me the fight in Diaz's. Duke minus 9.5. 7 p.m.
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: Central Time in Austin, and the Longhorns have got to
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: get up off of the party mat. They've been partying
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: all week. They beat Ohio State. Let's go. Well, now
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: you get UTSA coming into town, and the Roadrunners are 30.5-point underdogs.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Total of 58.5. This thing opened at 29.5 with a
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: total of 57.5, so a point has gone towards Texas,
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: and a point has gone up on that total. Texas
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: 59-7 over Texas State in Week 1. We do have
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: a comparison game there. UTSA, it took everything they had
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: to come back and beat Texas State, and Texas just
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: walloped Texas State in Week 1. So, 24-23 over Ohio
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: State last week. Obviously, if you listened to the reaction show,
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: you know what happened there. Most of you probably watched
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: the game. It was fantastic. Arch Manning and his company
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: there are the new No. 1 team. They feel good.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: UTSA 2-0 as well, 45-16 over UT Rio Grande Valley,
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: then 30-26 at Texas State last week. UTSA closed last
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: year with a big win over FIU, so we know
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: that this offense can score in bunches against the right defense,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: and I don't know that Texas State has a great defense,
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: so they put up 30 there, but Texas certainly has
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: a good defense. They're all right. They're all right. Trends.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: UTSA off of a straight-up win, 4-8 against the spread.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Texas laying 28-plus at home, 5-3 against the spread. That
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: is 63%. It's a classic letdown spot for Texas. They
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: just played the game of the season on Saturday night
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: against Ohio State. Now they're hosting a G5 team on
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: SEC Network. This is the number already. respects all of this.
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: Does Sark's team show up here? That's what we're curious about.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: Texas number one in the country in roster talent. UTSA
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: number 66. And when you look at success margin and
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: stuff like that, UTSA number 50. Texas number 58. PPA margin.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: Texas number 73. UTSA is number 43. That's predicted points
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: added per play margin. But Texas obviously had to play
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: Ohio State. It's a big difference. It's a very, very
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: big difference. This is a do-you-want-to-run-it-up kind of game. And
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: Texas typically does, especially on these in-state teams. So UTSA,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: very similar to Texas State. And Texas State could not
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: get in the end zone. I wouldn't look for UTSA
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: to score more than, what, two touchdowns? So let's say
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: 14 points. Say they score 14 points. If you're going
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: to beat them by 31, you've got to have 45
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: on the board. I think Texas can get there. Yeah,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: why not? Let's lay it with the Longhorns. I don't
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: feel great about it, but looking at trends... Even though
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: it's a letdown spot, there's going to be a lot
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: of people already betting that letdown spot. The model has
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: it Texas minus 29.1. I'm going to go against the
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: model here. I will take the Longhorns minus 30.5. 45-14
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: gets me there. I'll roll with it. Hook'em, I guess,
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: is what they say, right? Hook'em Horns minus 30.5. West
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: Coast Big Ten all the way out to the East
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Coast in the Big Ten. 2.30 p.m. Central Time on CBS.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: This one in Piscataway, New Jersey. USC heads to Rutgers.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: USC a 24.5 point favorite. Total of 57.5 on this one.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: No real movement on it. Rutgers has looked bad. Like
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: so bad through the first couple weeks. It's just absurd.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: They are 0-2. 37-21 losers at home to UMass in
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: the Thursday opener. Then they go last week, lose at
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: Boston College, who is not a great team, but they
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: lose 28-21. Shiano, at this point, is kind of a topic. Like,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: is he going to last through this? Is he going
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: to be able to make this? Because I don't think
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: they're going to make a bowl game at this point. USC,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: 2-0 on the season, or 3-0 on the season thus far.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: 42-26 over San Jose State, 39-0 over Fresno, 49-30 over Louisiana.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: Which version of this team shows up? the one that
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: allowed 30 points to Louisiana and 26 to San Jose State,
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: or the one that shut out Fresno, right? Who knows?
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: What we do know is they're going to score some points.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: So this total of 57.5, I'm curious. I'm curious. USC,
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: as a road favorite, 1-7 against the spread. That's 13%.
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: And they especially do not do well in East Coast
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: games where they have to go multiple time zones. Luckily
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: for them, this one is at two 30. It's not
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: too early in the day. Um, Rutgers off of a
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: spread loss is eight and five against the spread. Obviously
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: they did not cover last week. So it was eight
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: and four. That was 67%. Now it's eight and five, uh,
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: total trends, both lean under on this Rutgers with the
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: wind total or with a total, excuse me, not a
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: wind total with a total under 57 and a half
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: 16 and six to the under, um, That's 73% on
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: a 22-game sample. And then USC with a total under 57.5,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: 10-6 to the under. That's 63% over 16 games. So
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: both of the trends like this under. I don't anticipate
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Rutgers being able to score a lot. And USC, when
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: they play on the East Coast, they just don't seem
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: to score a lot of points. But man, that USC
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: 1-7 against the spread as road favorites... That's hard to ignore.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: Toss in there the fact that my model has this
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: USC minus 19.5. This is a hold your nose and
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: just bet it because you got to roll with it.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Rutgers plus 24.5 is the way we're going to go
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: on the show. I don't feel good about it, but whew. Also,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: do you trust USC on the road? You've had no
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: reason to for a long, long time. Not to mention
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: the fact that USC has Oregon next week. Kind of
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: a big spot here. It's a look ahead. Let down
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: look ahead. I think that's what we'll call it. So,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: give me Rutgers to cover 24 and a half. I
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: don't think that it's... I don't think they're great. I
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: don't think they're going to win the game at any... Like,
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: there will be no reason for you to believe that
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: they could win this game. Can they keep it within
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: 24 and a half? Sure. Why not? Why not? Give
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: me Greg Ciano... Fighting back. Rutgers plus 24.5. The American
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: Athletic Conference against the Big 12. We got Tulane going
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: to the Little Apple. Kansas State. Saturday, 11 a.m. Central Time.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: God's time zone on ESPN2. Kansas State a 19.5 point favorite.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Total of 49.5. This one opened at 20.5. It's been
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: bought back down just a little bit. I would shop
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: this one around because I think you're going to have
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: plenty of options available. Kansas State. 71-3 over Nichols State
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: in Week 1. 34-7 over Washington State last week. Not
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: a real test yet, but they have certainly looked the
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: part thus far. Tulane 1-1. So far, they lost 17-3
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: at Duke in Week 1. Only three points against a
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: Power 4 defense. Now, I do think that Duke's defense
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: is probably better than Kansas State's right now, even still.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: And then Tulane turned around and beat South Alabama last week,
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: but the The box score, the stat sheet probably would
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: tell you that they shouldn't have won that ballgame. Just
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: go pay attention to it. Just go take a look. Tulane,
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: of course, new head coach Will Hall. They lost John Summerall.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: They lost some players to the portal, but nothing crazy.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: But their success margin this year is number 111. Their
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: PPA margin so far this year, predicted points added margin,
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: is number 87. Kansas State is number 12 and number 10, respectively,
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: in both of those. Both of these teams pretty good
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: as far as explosive plays. Explosive margin for Tulane, 38,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: for Kansas State, number 24. And turnover margin, neither one
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: of them is that great. They're both outside of the
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: top 60. Tulane, number 70, Kansas State, number 91. Kansas
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: State has an advantage at every position unit on the field. However,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: my model has this Kansas State minus 15.5 margin. And
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: that's four points of value here. Kansas State as a
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: home favorite of more than 10 is 1-5 against the spread. Well,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: now 2-5 against the spread because they did cover against
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: Washington State last week. Tulane as a road dog of 7+.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: 0-4 against the number. That's not great. Kansas State has
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: at least proven that they're a little bit better. But man. Like,
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: that one is rough. 11 a.m. Central in Manhattan against
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: a team that scored three points at Duke. Like, if
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: Kansas State is a real Big 12 contender, this is
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: a cover. I don't think Tulane's very good. I'm going
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: to go against the model here. I don't think Tulane
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: is good at all. Like, they hired Will Hall. I
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: don't know that many other places would have done that.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: And Colin Klein loves to put up points with his offense.
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: Certainly does. So I'm going to roll with Kansas State.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go against the model. But give me
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: the Wildcats. At home, minus 19.5. Again, the model is
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: minus 15.5. Four points difference, and I'm still going to
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: take it. Give me Kansas State, minus 19.5. Last game
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: of the show. This one, 6.30 p.m. Central Time. God's
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: time zone on CBS. It's in Fort Collins, and Colorado
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: State is hosting the BYU Cougars. BYU a 20.5 point
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: road favorite here. Total of 52.5. It opened at 21.
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: Been bought back down just a touch. Total is staying
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: in the exact same spot. BYU 2-0 thus far on
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: the season. 63-7 over Utah Tech. They won 28-17 over
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: Arizona last week in the Big 12 opener. The defense
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: did enough in that game. Looked pretty good. I feel
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: alright about it. Colorado State has been a genuine surprise.
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: I did not expect this from new coach Jim Mora.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: Probably should have because he tends to turn it around
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: anywhere he goes. But 35-13 over Wyoming in the border
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: war and then 58-24 over Southern Utah. This is quietly
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: a really nice start in Fort Collins for Colorado State.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: I don't anticipate them being able to win this game
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: and being a Mountain West championship contender by any stretch,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: but Still, this has looked pretty good. They're No. 46
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: in success rate margin, No. 29 in PPA margin, No.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: 2 in turnover margin, No. 28 in explosivity margin, and
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: they go fast. No. 16 in plays per minute. BYU No.
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: 17 in success margin, No. 12 in predicted points added margin, No.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: 5 in turnover margin. Neither one of these teams turns
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: the ball over. As far as trends, BYU in non-conference games,
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: 8-0 against the spread. in the last eight. On the
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: other side, Jim Mora as an underdog, 5-2 against the
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: spread since 2024. And Mora at home, and this is
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: over a longer amount of time, well, no, I guess
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: it's over the last two years, two plus, 10-3-1 against
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: the spread. 77% cover rate at home since 2024. That's wild. Um,
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: A Saturday night CBS window, like Mountain West team that's 2-0,
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: that feels good about themselves, and that place will be
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: slammed because they have wanted to believe for so long.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: So long. Something's got to give here with these two,
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: like BYU's non-conference spread record and then Mora's home spread record.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: If you can get... shop around on this number. See
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: if you can get a 21 out there. If not,
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: all right. But if you're a BYU fan, this thing
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: might come down even more. I, on the other hand,
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: am going to side with Jamora. I think BYU has
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: bigger fish to fry. I don't think they're going to
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: be as worried about this ballgame. The model has it
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: BYU minus 16.0. I'm going to side with Colorado State.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: Give me the Rams here. Plus 20.5. There's not any
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: position group or anything that would tell you that they
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: should be able to stay in this game. And yet, home,
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: night game, big-time spot, BYU not so worried about this game,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: probably has other games that they're more focused on. I
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: think Colorado State, really, I don't think they find a
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: way to win this game. I'm not looking at an
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: upset here. What I'm looking at is BYU wins this one. 30-17.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: Something like that. I think that makes sense. I think
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: that makes sense. So, with that said, we're going to
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: go with Colorado State plus 20.5. Give me the Rams.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: Give me the fighting Morris. Give me the fighting Morris. Oy, oy, oy.
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: All right. The recap and whatnot, I'm going to post
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: on BuyMeACoffee. So, if you're not already a member, go
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: and check it out. BuyMeACoffee.com slash winningcures. Along with that,
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the podcast. Going to have another show on Friday,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: so make sure that you are subscribed and that you
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: leave a nice five-star written review either on Apple Podcasts
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: or Spotify, whatever your favorite podcast app is. I would
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: appreciate that. I think that is going to do it
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: for today. What a fun week we got coming up.
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: This is going to be so much fun. The whole
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin thing, I'm stoked about what goes down in Oxford,
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: but I'm going to have all of the other screens
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: on fun games like BYU and Colorado State, et cetera, right?
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: So I'm excited about it. Jump in the comments. Let
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: me know your picks on these games. Let me know
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: your picks on other games as well because these are
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: not the only ones this week. I hit on 25
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: of them. There's 50-something games between FBS competition every week.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: So jump in and let me know what you think.
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: Like the video. Subscribe to the channel. And, of course,
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: share it out. Don't forget about Thursday. Coming up this Thursday,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: don't forget about the Web Store, all those wonderful things.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: With that said, I'm getting out of here. Take care
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: of yourself. Take care of each other. God bless college
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: football and hopefully all of your tickets cash this week.
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: review or comment. Follow at GaryWCE on X and check
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: out the web store.