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Blue Jays/Reds MLB + WNBA Best Bets Wednesday 9/3/25 · Toadstool Sports

0:01
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
0:06
Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
0:09
Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
0:12
Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
0:15
Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that. I just
0:18
Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
0:21
Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
0:26
Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
0:30
Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends slump that
0:35
Speaker 1: I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a new peak. Actually,
0:40
Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my Bruins hack Man, I don't
0:43
Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape?
0:46
Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
0:48
Speaker 1: March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I don't
0:52
Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. But I don't even know
0:54
Speaker 1: what data is anymore. Man, back with you after the
0:58
Speaker 1: worst day that I could possibly have, Back with you
1:00
Speaker 1: as I always am until I die at least oh
1:04
Speaker 1: and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go well for me.
1:08
Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
1:12
Speaker 1: my eighteen years. Doing this. I don't know what to
1:14
Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. The slump yesterdays, the
1:17
Speaker 1: slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
1:23
Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
1:25
Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up? Everybody
1:34
Speaker 1: is sewed back with you? Better off dead? Wednesday, UH,
1:38
Speaker 1: September third, we were on a bad run, man run,
1:42
Speaker 1: one of the worst runs that I've had in quite
1:44
Speaker 1: a while. Here it's tanking. I mean, we do have
1:46
Speaker 1: swings up and down. We're swingers over here when we
1:51
Speaker 1: do sports betting. Yesterday, if you caught my comment in
1:55
Speaker 1: the UH on the video yesterday, the Toronto and sits
1:59
Speaker 1: an Ada game wound up being a no play because
2:02
Speaker 1: I don't really specify this most of the time, but
2:06
Speaker 1: when you play a baseball game, you want to specify
2:09
Speaker 1: both These listed starters must start in almost every case
2:12
Speaker 1: because you're putting a lot on the starting pitching matchup.
2:16
Speaker 1: So in the case of Toronto Cincinnati, Lodola wound up
2:19
Speaker 1: getting scratched. I don't know if he's hurt or what,
2:21
Speaker 1: but he did not appear in the game. So if
2:23
Speaker 1: you bet it with those starters must start, then that
2:26
Speaker 1: would push so it would be a no bet. So
2:30
Speaker 1: I counted that as nothing because I commented on and I
2:32
Speaker 1: was like, oh, they scratched him. They basically went with
2:35
Speaker 1: a bullpen game. I was like, that's not gonna be good,
2:37
Speaker 1: so let's take that. Yeah, like, that's gonna be a
2:40
Speaker 1: no play. Now. The other way to do it, of course,
2:43
Speaker 1: is if you specify action. It means that you're gonna
2:46
Speaker 1: have action on the game regardless of who the starters are.
2:48
Speaker 1: But that's dangerous that I would say, that's a rare scenario.
2:52
Speaker 1: I've given out plays like that before, but it's uncommon.
2:55
Speaker 1: There are certain situations where you want to do it.
2:57
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean fault you want to do starters
3:01
Speaker 1: must start, So just putting that out there. So that
3:04
Speaker 1: was a no play on that one. But the three
3:06
Speaker 1: plays that did happen yesterday went one and two. So
3:08
Speaker 1: it was not good Mets in Detroit. That one was
3:12
Speaker 1: looking okay, I mean it was. I think it was
3:14
Speaker 1: two to one into the fourth inning and then just
3:17
Speaker 1: all hell broke loose and the Mets scored a ton
3:19
Speaker 1: of runs in the top of the fourth and that
3:21
Speaker 1: was basically it like that game. I think there were
3:24
Speaker 1: only maybe two or three innings in the entire game
3:27
Speaker 1: where any runs are scored, but when the runs scored,
3:30
Speaker 1: there were a ton of runs scored. I think the
3:32
Speaker 1: Mets scored five in one inning and six in another inning,
3:36
Speaker 1: So I mean it almost had the makings like it
3:39
Speaker 1: looked like it could have been an undergame. It was
3:40
Speaker 1: just that again, like all hell broke loose in the
3:43
Speaker 1: innings where stuff happened. Cleveland Boston under was not even close.
3:46
Speaker 1: That was a loser, and then we did get the
3:49
Speaker 1: over in White Sox Minnesota as the bullpens helped us
3:53
Speaker 1: out in that one. Is the game wasn't terribly high
3:55
Speaker 1: scoring for a while, but that will wound up still
3:57
Speaker 1: going over. We'll move on to man, I really really
4:01
Speaker 1: hate the board today. I'm gonna have one baseball play
4:04
Speaker 1: and I'm not even sure how much I really love it.
4:06
Speaker 1: It's a starting pitching matchup. It's the calm before the
4:10
Speaker 1: storm today, man, because football begins, so we have the
4:14
Speaker 1: NFL starting tomorrow. I had my fantasy draft last night,
4:17
Speaker 1: and it seems like every single year I wind up
4:20
Speaker 1: with a bad wide receiver corps man on my fantasy team.
4:24
Speaker 1: I don't know why that's the case, just it seems
4:27
Speaker 1: like people over value receivers and I just wind up
4:29
Speaker 1: not getting good receivers. I don't get it. Like I'm
4:32
Speaker 1: usually pretty stacked at running back. This year, I have
4:35
Speaker 1: a pretty solid quarterback and tight end the way that
4:38
Speaker 1: the auction worked out, and my running backs are okay.
4:41
Speaker 1: But I just have like a ton of wide receivers
4:44
Speaker 1: and none of them are really that good. So it's
4:46
Speaker 1: gonna be a matter of like mixing and matching them
4:49
Speaker 1: and hoping I get good performances out of mediocre wide receivers.
4:53
Speaker 1: For the most part, I don't love that. I really don't.
4:57
Speaker 1: I don't love my team unfortunately my main league there.
5:01
Speaker 1: But anyway, NFL will start tomorrow. I don't know if
5:05
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have a play on tomorrow's game or not,
5:06
Speaker 1: but I will put it out there. Right now, I
5:08
Speaker 1: am considering the Dallas Cowboys plus the points, which it's
5:13
Speaker 1: well above seven and a half right now, So anywhere
5:16
Speaker 1: in that range between seven and a half and nine,
5:18
Speaker 1: I think that it's a teaser killer, really the books
5:21
Speaker 1: moving the number to nine. I'll talk about that more tomorrow. Though,
5:24
Speaker 1: but the books will basically throw the number up to
5:26
Speaker 1: nine from seven and a half just so that the
5:30
Speaker 1: recreational betters and even the professionals can't tease it down
5:33
Speaker 1: to below two and a half anymore, because there's huge
5:35
Speaker 1: value in getting it below that key number of three.
5:39
Speaker 1: So I think the books are teaser killing on that one.
5:41
Speaker 1: I don't think it's like an actual money move on
5:44
Speaker 1: the Eagles, if that makes sense. So I actually like
5:47
Speaker 1: the Cowboys plus the points in that game. Curtis, what's up, man,
5:52
Speaker 1: But I don't know if it'll be a player or
5:53
Speaker 1: not at this point. We will talk about it tomorrow though.
5:57
Speaker 1: Today we have two WNBA games. The first one is
6:01
Speaker 1: somewhat interesting LA at Atlanta. Both of these teams are
6:05
Speaker 1: fighting for playoff position, but in LA's case, they're actually
6:09
Speaker 1: still trying to make the playoffs because interestingly, LA is
6:13
Speaker 1: the only team that's outside of the playoff structure right
6:16
Speaker 1: now that is not eliminated yet. So you have I
6:20
Speaker 1: think three teams are eliminated. There are twelve teams in
6:22
Speaker 1: the league. Eight teams make the playoffs, and LA is
6:26
Speaker 1: sitting at ninth right now, and they're only like one
6:28
Speaker 1: or two games out of that last spot, so that
6:30
Speaker 1: which is the Indiana fief right now. So LA, they're
6:35
Speaker 1: in desperation mode, man. And sometimes when a team is
6:38
Speaker 1: desperate and the pressure is still like a little bit
6:40
Speaker 1: off of them in a way because they're a big underdog,
6:43
Speaker 1: not expected to win this game. If they have like
6:46
Speaker 1: that amount of motivation and they're huge underdogs, sometimes that's
6:49
Speaker 1: the way you want to look. So maybe a slight
6:51
Speaker 1: lean to LA in this one. Atlanta, I mean, they're
6:54
Speaker 1: still playing for something, but they have a decent lead
6:56
Speaker 1: in the Eastern Conference, but they're playing for seeding right
6:59
Speaker 1: now in the playoffs. They would like to get the
7:00
Speaker 1: two seed if they can, which I believe is definitely
7:04
Speaker 1: possible right now. So both teams do have something to
7:07
Speaker 1: play for. Atlanta's coming off beating a couple of door
7:10
Speaker 1: mats basically in Dallas and Connecticut. They are returning home
7:14
Speaker 1: from Connecticut, but it was only a one game trip,
7:16
Speaker 1: so it's not one of those long trips where you
7:19
Speaker 1: really get totally distracted. And LA is actually having a
7:22
Speaker 1: fly in from Seattle. I assume they had probably multiple
7:25
Speaker 1: days off here. I didn't look, but they are having
7:29
Speaker 1: to fly to the Eastern times on, so time zone
7:31
Speaker 1: shift could affect them a little bit negatively. And that
7:34
Speaker 1: was a big win for them over Seattle to a
7:36
Speaker 1: big upset. But they're gonna have to continue to be
7:38
Speaker 1: focused because it's trying to make the playoffs. So do
7:40
Speaker 1: with that information what you will. And then we have
7:43
Speaker 1: a battle of two teams. They are terrible and they're
7:45
Speaker 1: both eliminated, Connecticut and Chicago. I don't even know how
7:49
Speaker 1: to approach this game at all, to be honest, Chicago's
7:52
Speaker 1: lost four games in a row. They are returning home
7:54
Speaker 1: from going to Phoenix in Seattle, so it is technically
7:57
Speaker 1: a return home spot where you might be somewhat distracted,
8:01
Speaker 1: especially playing a team it's not very good like Connecticut.
8:04
Speaker 1: Connecticut's leaving home, so it's a little bit of a
8:07
Speaker 1: better spot for them in a way because they get
8:08
Speaker 1: to just get on a home and when that happens,
8:11
Speaker 1: you tend to just focus more on basketball. After they
8:14
Speaker 1: were losing, the money's kind of come in on Chicago
8:17
Speaker 1: from one and a half to two, and I'm not
8:18
Speaker 1: really sure I agree with that move. Would probably slightly
8:21
Speaker 1: lean to Connecticut to be honest, in that game, but
8:24
Speaker 1: those teams are both out of that. So do with
8:27
Speaker 1: that information what you will. As I always say, and
8:30
Speaker 1: this is the breakdown segment. By the way, well we'll
8:33
Speaker 1: talk about baseball as I have a breakdown baseball. I'm
8:41
Speaker 1: only gonna have one play today. Man. You can see
8:43
Speaker 1: it is on a decent game that does have implications
8:46
Speaker 1: as far as playoffs are concerned. Toronto Cincinnati. I think
8:49
Speaker 1: there is an angle to approach to. There's an angle
8:53
Speaker 1: to use in that game. Miami at Washington, Washington after
8:57
Speaker 1: breaking their long lost streak. I told you, man that
9:00
Speaker 1: it could start this new momentum thing. And I liked
9:02
Speaker 1: Washington in both of these games, and they actually did
9:05
Speaker 1: win both of them. Maybe I should have given it
9:07
Speaker 1: out as a play. Although I hate Washington's bullpen, but
9:12
Speaker 1: Washington they do have a big series against the Cubs
9:15
Speaker 1: up next, which that might be the type of series
9:17
Speaker 1: or a team that's done. Like Washington, they're not going
9:20
Speaker 1: anywhere since they've already won this series, even though I
9:22
Speaker 1: know it's a divisional series. It is possible they start
9:25
Speaker 1: looking ahead to Chicago because that is going to be
9:28
Speaker 1: one of the types of series that maybe they'll get
9:30
Speaker 1: up for nothing left to play. For Miami doesn't have
9:32
Speaker 1: a whole lot left to play for either, but they're
9:35
Speaker 1: trying to avoid a sweet peer man. I mean, they're
9:37
Speaker 1: trying to just avoid embarrassment here. They don't want to
9:40
Speaker 1: get swept by the last place team in the division,
9:43
Speaker 1: you know, So I think there is motivation there. Miami
9:46
Speaker 1: does have the better offense, I believe, and the better bullpen,
9:49
Speaker 1: and they rested. Miami has a lot of guys in
9:52
Speaker 1: their bullpen right now with September call ups, but their
9:54
Speaker 1: bullpen is more rested. They use one reliever yesterday and
9:57
Speaker 1: Washington used four, and I mean, excuse me, Miami's in
10:02
Speaker 1: the better, uh bullpen position by far as far as
10:06
Speaker 1: the hitting is concerned. I believe Miami has the better
10:08
Speaker 1: offense as well. Ah, yes, they do as far as ops.
10:12
Speaker 1: So Miami has advantages here, and I think they have
10:14
Speaker 1: the better starting pitcher as well, in Uri Perez. He's
10:18
Speaker 1: got a four point four ERA now in the season,
10:20
Speaker 1: which is in that good. One point four whip is
10:22
Speaker 1: pretty good. He is worse on the road, though, so
10:25
Speaker 1: five point four ninety IRA that's concerning, And his most
10:28
Speaker 1: recent start is certainly concerning because he only went two
10:32
Speaker 1: thirds of men in a just really inexplicable and gave
10:35
Speaker 1: up five and runs to the Mets. I know the
10:37
Speaker 1: Mets have been hitting really well recently, but that and
10:40
Speaker 1: beating my unders. But and I think I had an
10:43
Speaker 1: under in this game too. Actually, it's just brutal. So
10:47
Speaker 1: I don't know what happened there. Man With Perez, I mean,
10:50
Speaker 1: he's obviously nowhere near as bad as that, but he
10:52
Speaker 1: hasn't been that good this past month five point six
10:55
Speaker 1: ERA twenty four to twelve strike out walk ratio, so
10:58
Speaker 1: he's not in terrific four warm right now. Failing to
11:01
Speaker 1: go five innings in two of his last three starts,
11:04
Speaker 1: that's not great. Although yeah, I mean, I don't know
11:08
Speaker 1: what else to say about that. He was on a
11:09
Speaker 1: nice run before that, and he is a talented young pitcher.
11:12
Speaker 1: So does he bounce back here? He might because Washington
11:16
Speaker 1: does not hit him well in the past twenty five
11:19
Speaker 1: at bats. It's a small sample, but one twenty batting
11:21
Speaker 1: average four to thirty four ohps, so Perez might actually
11:25
Speaker 1: do better in this one. Mitchell Parker is pitching for Washington.
11:28
Speaker 1: He has not had a good season five point nine
11:31
Speaker 1: four ERA one point four to seven whip. He's a
11:34
Speaker 1: little bit better at home though, five point three to
11:36
Speaker 1: five RA at home. Which did I say with Perez's
11:39
Speaker 1: road numbers where I think they're both? Yeah, I think
11:41
Speaker 1: I did. So. The splits are actually in favor of
11:45
Speaker 1: Parker in this one, which is not great, which is
11:47
Speaker 1: why I'm gonna I'm staying off of this game. But
11:50
Speaker 1: Parker hasn't been good recently either, although his last start
11:53
Speaker 1: was pretty good against Tampa seven strikeouts, no walks, three
11:56
Speaker 1: or in runs allowed six and a third. But Washington's
11:59
Speaker 1: loss his last six starts. They've lost eight of his
12:03
Speaker 1: last nine. He has a twenty to eleven strike out
12:06
Speaker 1: walk ratio this month, ten point two twenty RA and
12:08
Speaker 1: nine home runs allowed in the past month. I should
12:11
Speaker 1: say that was in August. So he's not a good
12:14
Speaker 1: form right now either man. Even though he did have
12:16
Speaker 1: a good start his last time out, his numbers are
12:18
Speaker 1: pretty good against Miami in thirty eight at bats, seven
12:21
Speaker 1: to five strike out walk ratio. Both home runs that
12:24
Speaker 1: he's allowed were both by Augustin Ramirez. Augustin Ramirez, I
12:29
Speaker 1: don't know how you pronounced his name. To eleven banning
12:31
Speaker 1: average allowed to Miami as a team six ninety seven
12:36
Speaker 1: ops allowed to Miami's hitters, So I mean, based on
12:39
Speaker 1: the matchup numbers, it almost seems like there is potentially
12:43
Speaker 1: an argument for an under here, but the bull I
12:45
Speaker 1: would do it first five innings if I was gonna
12:47
Speaker 1: do that, because the bullpens. You don't want any part
12:49
Speaker 1: of the bullpens in my opinion. Seventy one percent of
12:52
Speaker 1: tickets and eight nine percent of the cash on the
12:54
Speaker 1: over though, and the total did go up to nine.
12:57
Speaker 1: Money line did move up on Miami for minus one
12:59
Speaker 1: twenty and he might as one thirty five eighty eight
13:01
Speaker 1: percent of tickets and cash on them though, so they
13:03
Speaker 1: are public. I definitely I do see the argument for Miami.
13:08
Speaker 1: Like I said, I think Perez he is the better pitcher,
13:11
Speaker 1: so his ceiling is way higher against Perez, so if
13:14
Speaker 1: he actually pitches well, Miami should win this game. It
13:17
Speaker 1: should mean that Miami does have the edge. Actually in
13:19
Speaker 1: every one of the three facets of this game. They
13:23
Speaker 1: have the hitting, the bullpen, and the starting pitching. So
13:27
Speaker 1: playing Miami on the money line actually does still make
13:29
Speaker 1: sense to me in this game as well. That might
13:31
Speaker 1: actually be the best way to look at that game
13:34
Speaker 1: Mets and Detroit, We're not going to try to play
13:37
Speaker 1: on this series again, man, watch the game go under today.
13:40
Speaker 1: Though Detroit's on the verge of getting swept here man
13:43
Speaker 1: and the Mets, it is possible they look ahead, even
13:46
Speaker 1: though both of these teams need to win. But the
13:49
Speaker 1: Mets do need to win a little bit more, as
13:51
Speaker 1: I pointed out, because the Mets are trying to make
13:53
Speaker 1: sure they hold serve like in the wildcard race, they
13:58
Speaker 1: want to make sure that they maintain a wildcards. They're
14:00
Speaker 1: trying to catch up to Philadelphia. Detroit has a bit
14:05
Speaker 1: more padding in their division here, so Detroit cauld kind
14:07
Speaker 1: of afford to slack off a little bit. But I
14:09
Speaker 1: think in this case, Detroit's trying to avoid the sweep.
14:12
Speaker 1: Detroit's a good home team, man, so I think Detroit
14:15
Speaker 1: might come out with some intensity in this game. The
14:17
Speaker 1: Mets actually could be potentially looking ahead because they do
14:21
Speaker 1: have a big game, big series up next against Cincinnati
14:24
Speaker 1: over the weekends. That's a series obviously with wildcard implications there,
14:29
Speaker 1: so they may look ahead to that looking at this game.
14:33
Speaker 1: As far as the bullpens are concerned, the Mets have
14:37
Speaker 1: the better bullpen right now, but it's pretty close in Bullpenyra.
14:40
Speaker 1: But the Mets I believe didn't use much of their
14:42
Speaker 1: bullpen yesterday. Yeah, they used herget And as a long
14:47
Speaker 1: relief man, so they basically pretty much saved all the
14:50
Speaker 1: rest of their bullpen yesterday after they used most of
14:52
Speaker 1: it the day before that. So good job by the
14:55
Speaker 1: Mets and their bullpen management. Yesterday, Detroit used more of
14:58
Speaker 1: their pen, So it looks like Detroit's bullpen is in
15:01
Speaker 1: a little bit worse shape here. So the Mets do
15:03
Speaker 1: have a bullpen edge here. Mets have been hitting well
15:06
Speaker 1: recently too, so the Mets have an offensive edge. Hear.
15:08
Speaker 1: They're actually back up to fourth in overall ops in
15:12
Speaker 1: all of the major leagues, so they have a hitting
15:15
Speaker 1: edge as well here. So Mets do have some edges here.
15:18
Speaker 1: Do they have the better starting pitcher? I would say
15:21
Speaker 1: they probably do. I don't like either of these starting
15:23
Speaker 1: pitchers that much. Clay Holmes is pitching for the Mets.
15:26
Speaker 1: Three point six ERA one point three to one whip
15:29
Speaker 1: is not that good. He's been a little bit better
15:31
Speaker 1: on the road. Three point three six roadyra this past month.
15:36
Speaker 1: Four point three two ERA twenty to ten strike at
15:38
Speaker 1: walk ratio very mediocre, but in his last three starts
15:42
Speaker 1: he allowed two or fewer runs, so that's pretty good
15:46
Speaker 1: when at least five innings and all three of those starts.
15:49
Speaker 1: He's pitching okay recently and up against Detroit, his numbers
15:54
Speaker 1: are also okay. In thirty three at bats fourteen strikeouts,
15:57
Speaker 1: one walk, that is pretty solid. Seventy three average allowed
16:01
Speaker 1: six twenty seven ops is pretty low. They haven't really
16:03
Speaker 1: hit him for power, so Holmes does have decent numbers
16:07
Speaker 1: against the Mats. He's up. It's Casey my so I
16:10
Speaker 1: think is overrated. I mean, I think both of these
16:13
Speaker 1: pitchers are overrated. I think mys might be more overrated.
16:16
Speaker 1: They've actually they're actually pretty similar, and then I think
16:19
Speaker 1: they're both overrated. They both have good eras and whips
16:22
Speaker 1: that would indicate that the three ras should be worse.
16:25
Speaker 1: Myz three point nine to five ERA, one point three
16:28
Speaker 1: to one whip. He's good at home though, three point
16:31
Speaker 1: six one ERA at home. He's been better at home
16:34
Speaker 1: last this past month. Pretty solid command numbers twenty three
16:37
Speaker 1: to six strike out walk ratio, but he's allowed five
16:40
Speaker 1: home runs and he has a five point eight one
16:42
Speaker 1: ERA over the past month, so he's allowed runs, even
16:46
Speaker 1: though his command numbers kind of indicate that he actually
16:48
Speaker 1: was pitching better than that. He's allowed three or more
16:51
Speaker 1: in runs in all but one of the starts, even
16:52
Speaker 1: though Detroit did go on a run of five wins
16:55
Speaker 1: in a row behind him four this month before losing
16:58
Speaker 1: his most recent outing, but you might give him a
17:00
Speaker 1: pass for that. It was his worst outing of August
17:03
Speaker 1: and it was at the A's Stadium, so it's a
17:06
Speaker 1: tough place to pitch, a very hitter friendly ballpark. So
17:10
Speaker 1: my is he's also pitching okay right now, and his
17:13
Speaker 1: numbers are fairly good against the Mats. Small sample size,
17:16
Speaker 1: twenty seven at bats five to four strike a walk
17:18
Speaker 1: ratio is not good, but to twenty two average six
17:22
Speaker 1: ninety three ops, that's pretty solid. So I mean again,
17:26
Speaker 1: it almost looks like there is the potential for an
17:29
Speaker 1: under in this game. Total drop from nine to eight
17:32
Speaker 1: and a half, although juice to the under to eight
17:34
Speaker 1: and a half, juice nine, juice to the under to
17:35
Speaker 1: eight and a half, juice to the over, not a
17:37
Speaker 1: huge move, but we see the public coming in only
17:40
Speaker 1: on the over. I mean, it's been a high scoring
17:42
Speaker 1: series the public knows both these teams can hit U
17:45
Speaker 1: seventy seven percent of tickets on the over fifty two
17:47
Speaker 1: percent of the cash though on the over, So it
17:50
Speaker 1: looks like the cash percentages again on the under, and
17:54
Speaker 1: again I wouldn't really disagree with that, And I think
17:56
Speaker 1: the bullpens are actually even maybe okay enough, and maybe
17:59
Speaker 1: this will be the one that goes under in the series. Man,
18:03
Speaker 1: after two really high scoring games. It would be crazy
18:06
Speaker 1: because I don't like either of these starting pitchers, but
18:10
Speaker 1: their matchup numbers are fairly good, so it is possible.
18:13
Speaker 1: And the money line moved on the Mets almost right away,
18:15
Speaker 1: up from plus one hundreds of minus one fifteen. They
18:18
Speaker 1: have fifty one percent of tickets with fifty one percent
18:20
Speaker 1: of the cash on Detroit. But fifty one percent to
18:23
Speaker 1: me doesn't mean a whole lot. I think the money
18:25
Speaker 1: line move is kind of the better indicator as far
18:28
Speaker 1: as how I read what's going on in the market here,
18:30
Speaker 1: So I think the Mets are actually the team that's
18:32
Speaker 1: getting the money again. Again, they do have a little
18:35
Speaker 1: bit more to play for here. I think it's kind
18:36
Speaker 1: of the same type of handicap that it has been
18:38
Speaker 1: throughout the series that and I think Holmes is actually
18:42
Speaker 1: probably the preferred pitcher over myes. And the Mets do
18:44
Speaker 1: have a bullpen edge and a hitting edge here, so
18:47
Speaker 1: things to keep in mind there. So maybe slightly into
18:49
Speaker 1: the Mets again there, Alex, what's up man? Thank you sir.
18:57
Speaker 1: It's like somewhere in between. So like I've been, I've
19:00
Speaker 1: been actually putting my money on this for nineteen years
19:03
Speaker 1: almost now, but it was like sort of a I
19:07
Speaker 1: was doing it like semi professional, like I was betting
19:10
Speaker 1: it's I was betting to win three hundred dollars per
19:13
Speaker 1: bet basically, and I actually won. I started doing this
19:16
Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight basically, and or two thousand
19:21
Speaker 1: and seven, two thousand and eight, somewhere in that range.
19:25
Speaker 1: And I actually won every single year except twenty fifteen
19:28
Speaker 1: until last year when I had a losing year. This
19:31
Speaker 1: year is going to be a losing year. Two man, Man,
19:33
Speaker 1: you have bad swings. Man, I'm telling you, I'm I'm
19:35
Speaker 1: on a bad run right now. My baseball is usually good,
19:39
Speaker 1: so I yeah, I mean, I'm frustrated by it. I
19:42
Speaker 1: can't tell you exactly what's going on right now, although
19:45
Speaker 1: I've not as of clarified. I've not been putting my
19:47
Speaker 1: money on these bets basically since I lost my job,
19:51
Speaker 1: my actual job, because it's like I just can't totally
19:54
Speaker 1: fund it right now because most of my money is
19:55
Speaker 1: not liquid right now, so I just can't really I
19:58
Speaker 1: don't have enough of a bank roll to it right now.
20:01
Speaker 1: So it's somewhere in between the two, if that makes sense.
20:05
Speaker 1: I appreciate that you like my analysis, man, I mean
20:07
Speaker 1: I think it should it should pay out in the
20:10
Speaker 1: long run. Man. Like I said, I mean, you do
20:11
Speaker 1: have these really really bad stretches sometimes though it's kind
20:14
Speaker 1: of the nature of the game. Then you have real
20:16
Speaker 1: hot streaks as well, so I mean it, yeah, it
20:20
Speaker 1: pisses me off. It's just it is just the way
20:22
Speaker 1: that it is though. WNBA, Yeah, I mean, I just
20:26
Speaker 1: haven't seen a very good angle in the WNBA for
20:28
Speaker 1: a while. But there will be some when the playoffs start,
20:31
Speaker 1: I would have to imagine, so there probably will be
20:33
Speaker 1: more WNBA picks and I'm gonna give out here. Yeah. Baseball,
20:38
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how many days you've been
20:39
Speaker 1: listening to me, but yeah, we're on a bad run
20:41
Speaker 1: over the past like week or so. And I was
20:43
Speaker 1: pretty hot in baseball for a little while prior to
20:46
Speaker 1: that too, And I hate it, man, because it it
20:48
Speaker 1: almost gets a race. But for the most part, the
20:51
Speaker 1: whole time I've been doing this, it's been like I mean,
20:55
Speaker 1: it's it's a game, man, where you have to win
20:57
Speaker 1: like fifty three percent of your bets essentially in that range.
21:00
Speaker 1: I'm wearing you're making bets like this and over the
21:03
Speaker 1: long run it does profit and it has for me
21:07
Speaker 1: in the long term, but unfortunately it's like me, it's
21:11
Speaker 1: almost like me doing the show like messes with my
21:14
Speaker 1: head or like I don't even know what the deal
21:15
Speaker 1: is here. But like I've been doing this show since
21:18
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, mid twenty twenty three, and I was
21:21
Speaker 1: great in twenty twenty three and people were able to
21:24
Speaker 1: ride that for like the rest of the year that
21:26
Speaker 1: was awesome. Last year wasn't very good. It was a
21:29
Speaker 1: slight losing year, and then this year's been bad too,
21:32
Speaker 1: So I don't know what the fuck is going on.
21:34
Speaker 1: Just extremely frustrating to me, man, And I will point
21:39
Speaker 1: out NBA has been my best sport over the entire time.
21:42
Speaker 1: For whatever reason, NBA I just have I'm really good
21:46
Speaker 1: at NBA for whatever reason, NBA playoffs especially then baseball though,
21:52
Speaker 1: has been my second best sport in the long term,
21:54
Speaker 1: so it's kind of ridiculous what's been going on. And
21:58
Speaker 1: then NHL has actually been my third best over the
22:01
Speaker 1: long term, and then probably NFL, and then it's it's
22:06
Speaker 1: been like the college sports have really fucked with me.
22:09
Speaker 1: College basketball was horrendous this past year. It was really
22:12
Speaker 1: really good. Like two years ago, college basketball was unbelievably good.
22:17
Speaker 1: So it's like, how can you have huge swings like this?
22:20
Speaker 1: I mean, again, it's the way that it is, but
22:22
Speaker 1: it's crazy, man. And then college football. I was really
22:25
Speaker 1: good in college football last year, and as you've seen,
22:28
Speaker 1: I was terrible in Week one in college football. So,
22:31
Speaker 1: I mean week one is difficult. Week one is not
22:34
Speaker 1: my best week ever in the footballs. But even so
22:39
Speaker 1: so I think it is gonna get better. I mean yeah,
22:42
Speaker 1: I just gotta basically have faith in that you know
22:45
Speaker 1: what you're doing, like, you know how to read the market,
22:47
Speaker 1: you know how to analyze this shit, and long term
22:50
Speaker 1: it should pay out. Occurtis, thank you, Thank you for
22:55
Speaker 1: putting positive vibes out there. It's not exactly what I
22:58
Speaker 1: do as the so Sidal better than I am here
23:02
Speaker 1: Texas at Arizona. These teams to split the first two
23:06
Speaker 1: games of the series. Arizona, I mean, they don't really
23:08
Speaker 1: have a whole lot left to play for as they're
23:11
Speaker 1: out of it, but I think this is the type
23:12
Speaker 1: of series that they're gonna kind of show up for
23:14
Speaker 1: because they're playing against a team that is fighting to
23:17
Speaker 1: make the playoffs, which Texas is. That does mean Texas motivation. However,
23:24
Speaker 1: Texas has they just lost a six game win streak,
23:27
Speaker 1: so I always say sometimes when you lose a long
23:29
Speaker 1: win streak like that, it can hang you over into
23:31
Speaker 1: the next game. You can essentially lose the game twice,
23:35
Speaker 1: so that is a factor there. So Texas maybe in
23:39
Speaker 1: a little bit of a difficult spot for that reason.
23:41
Speaker 1: Texas absolutely has the better bullpen. They used three relief
23:46
Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday Arizona used two. But Texas definitely has a
23:51
Speaker 1: better bullpen. Arizona has the better offense. This is again,
23:55
Speaker 1: this is a matchup. It's really pitching versus hitting. Texas
23:58
Speaker 1: has the better pitching, Arizona the better hitting, but the
24:00
Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup. You could debate that it's in favor
24:04
Speaker 1: of Arizona. Here. Jack Lighter is pitching for Texas three
24:08
Speaker 1: point seven to seventy RA one point three to one
24:10
Speaker 1: whip on the season, so his whip is a little
24:12
Speaker 1: bit high. He is worse on the road four point
24:15
Speaker 1: six to one Roady Ira. He was really good in
24:18
Speaker 1: his last two starts with a seventeen to two strikeout
24:20
Speaker 1: walker Ratio picked up wins in both outings, including one
24:24
Speaker 1: at the A's Stadium, which again is a very difficult
24:26
Speaker 1: stadium to pitch in. He only allowed two runs combined
24:29
Speaker 1: across those thirteen innings, both against the A's, so he's
24:33
Speaker 1: in really good for him across those last two starts,
24:36
Speaker 1: although in August he did walk too many guys. He
24:39
Speaker 1: had fourteen walks and thirty five strikeouts in twenty nine
24:42
Speaker 1: to third innings. Lighter, I mean, he's a power pitcher man.
24:45
Speaker 1: Unlike his father l Lighter, who was more of a
24:48
Speaker 1: location guy and off speed guy. Jack Lighter throws hard fastballs.
24:52
Speaker 1: He's way too wild at times. I did have a
24:55
Speaker 1: two point seven to sixty RA in August, though up
24:58
Speaker 1: against Arizona only fifteen at bats, so it's not a
25:02
Speaker 1: huge sample size there. Alexander does have a home run
25:06
Speaker 1: off him. They have two strikeouts, one walk, two sixty
25:08
Speaker 1: seven average eight eighty six ops, so his ops that
25:12
Speaker 1: he's allowed to Arizona is fairly high, and I actually
25:17
Speaker 1: think I might trust Zach Callan out of these two
25:19
Speaker 1: starters a little bit more man for Arizona. He's having
25:22
Speaker 1: a not a very good season. Four point nine four ERA,
25:25
Speaker 1: one point three to zero whip not great. He's a
25:28
Speaker 1: little bit worse at home five point two ERA, but
25:32
Speaker 1: he's been starting to pitch better man, as I've been saying.
25:35
Speaker 1: His career numbers indicate that like this has been kind
25:38
Speaker 1: of an outlier of a bad season for him, Like
25:40
Speaker 1: he's not usually this bad. Over the past month, though,
25:43
Speaker 1: he does have a two point five seven e RA
25:46
Speaker 1: twenty eight to nine strikeout walk ratio, and he allowed
25:49
Speaker 1: three or fewer earned runs in every outing, went six
25:52
Speaker 1: innings in all but one of those outings sol though
25:54
Speaker 1: it was against Texas, the one where he only went
25:57
Speaker 1: five and so his worst start of the past month
26:00
Speaker 1: was actually against this Texas team, and he only struck
26:03
Speaker 1: out one so and had two walks, So that's interesting.
26:06
Speaker 1: He didn't do that well. His numbers against Texas overall
26:09
Speaker 1: are dominant though ninety seven at bats thirty two to
26:12
Speaker 1: seven strikeout walk ratio one sixty five average allowed four
26:16
Speaker 1: in eighty nine ops, so Gallon actually does dominate them.
26:20
Speaker 1: I would have a slightly into Texas in this excuse
26:23
Speaker 1: me to Arizona in this game, but I would probably
26:24
Speaker 1: limit it to the first five innings because Texas does
26:27
Speaker 1: have a big bullpen advantage. Arizona's up down for minus
26:32
Speaker 1: one thirty five to minus one twenty five. They got
26:34
Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the cash on them, though sixty
26:37
Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets on Texas. Public kind of coming
26:40
Speaker 1: in on Texas because they have the better record and
26:42
Speaker 1: they're the underdog here, so I think the public perceives
26:45
Speaker 1: value on Texas there, and because Texas is in a
26:49
Speaker 1: spot where they need to win to try to make
26:51
Speaker 1: the playoffs, so sometimes that means you won't really necessarily
26:54
Speaker 1: get value on that team. But I think if you're
26:57
Speaker 1: gonna play Arizona, you do it in the first five
26:58
Speaker 1: innings because the on the money line because the bullpen,
27:03
Speaker 1: again Texas has a much better bullpen, the under is
27:06
Speaker 1: getting money in the under kind of makes sense to me.
27:09
Speaker 1: As well here because both pitchers are actually pitching pretty
27:12
Speaker 1: well right now over the last couple of starts, and
27:15
Speaker 1: they have good matchup numbers, so an under makes sense
27:18
Speaker 1: as well. If you go full game, you gotta worry
27:21
Speaker 1: about Arizona's bullpen though, so I mean you could go
27:24
Speaker 1: first five innings with it. If you go full game,
27:26
Speaker 1: you get under a key number of nine though, paying
27:28
Speaker 1: a little bit of extra juice, so you might want
27:30
Speaker 1: to do that. Fifty tickets eight to nine percent of
27:33
Speaker 1: the cash and the under. So yeah, generally I do
27:36
Speaker 1: agree with the under in that game as well, but
27:39
Speaker 1: it's a little bit difficult to do it at Chase
27:41
Speaker 1: Field because it is a hitter friendly ballpark. Baltimore at
27:44
Speaker 1: San Diego. San Diego, even though they're much better at
27:48
Speaker 1: home than they are on the road, they're on the
27:49
Speaker 1: version getting swept by a pretty bad Baltimore team, so
27:53
Speaker 1: that would be pretty embarrassing. But San Diego did face
27:56
Speaker 1: two pretty solid starters for Baltimore h that they weren't
27:59
Speaker 1: that familiar with. They think they faced Wells and Bradish,
28:03
Speaker 1: so they didn't get some of Baltimore's worst starters, and
28:06
Speaker 1: their starter that they're facing today is a little bit
28:08
Speaker 1: worse than that. San Diego. I think they're gonna come
28:10
Speaker 1: out motivated here. Man, they're good at home. You know,
28:14
Speaker 1: they're behind in the division by two and a half,
28:18
Speaker 1: so they're still fighting for the division. They're still fighting
28:21
Speaker 1: for a wildcard spot as well, trying to make the
28:24
Speaker 1: playoffs anyway that they can here of course, trying to
28:27
Speaker 1: break this losing momentum that they have here. But again,
28:31
Speaker 1: this still might be a starting pitching matchup where maybe
28:34
Speaker 1: they won't quite do that well, which I'll show that
28:36
Speaker 1: in a minute. Even I don't think Baltimore's starter is
28:38
Speaker 1: particularly good. San Diego used four relief pitchers yesterday. Remember
28:42
Speaker 1: Adam got injured the day before that, So San Diego
28:46
Speaker 1: they tend to use a lot of their relief pitchers
28:49
Speaker 1: per game. They just have so many good relief pitchers.
28:53
Speaker 1: So they're bullpen. I mean, it's still in good shape.
28:55
Speaker 1: They're still the better of the two bullpends. Baltimore has
28:58
Speaker 1: the better offense. Baltimore use four of their reliever relievers
29:02
Speaker 1: yesterday as well. Baltimore basically the advantage they have in
29:06
Speaker 1: the games the offense, but they might have a familiarity
29:09
Speaker 1: advantage against the starting pitcher, which is why maybe Baltimore
29:12
Speaker 1: might actually be able to pull off the sweet Pier potentially.
29:15
Speaker 1: But cade Povich is pitching for Baltimore, and he hasn't
29:18
Speaker 1: been that good. He's still young with some upside, but
29:21
Speaker 1: five point zero four ERA, one point four to three
29:24
Speaker 1: WHIP this year. He's been better on the road though,
29:26
Speaker 1: three point eight six ERA on the road this past month.
29:30
Speaker 1: Thirty two to nine strike a walk RACEIO. That's pretty solid,
29:34
Speaker 1: pretty good strikeout rate. Four point seven to eight ERA
29:37
Speaker 1: wasn't that good none. He wasn't really going too deep
29:39
Speaker 1: into games, and Baltimore lost all five starts that he
29:43
Speaker 1: had in August, but some of that was because they
29:45
Speaker 1: couldn't hit in some of those games. San Diego only
29:49
Speaker 1: has six at bats across only two batters against Povich.
29:54
Speaker 1: They're only one for six with two strikeouts, no walks.
29:57
Speaker 1: So Povich is unfamiliar to Sandy, so it is possible
30:01
Speaker 1: that he has a little bit of an advantage there
30:03
Speaker 1: because they're gonna have to figure him out while they're
30:05
Speaker 1: trying to hit him. Nessa Cortes is pitching for San Diego,
30:08
Speaker 1: and we know that Baltimore's at least somewhat familiar with
30:12
Speaker 1: him because he was on the Yankees for a bit.
30:14
Speaker 1: His numbers are not really good this year, but it's
30:16
Speaker 1: in a small sample size because he just came back
30:19
Speaker 1: from injury not that long ago. He's got a five
30:21
Speaker 1: point six ERA one point four to four WHIP. He's
30:24
Speaker 1: been way better at home though, I mean it's a
30:26
Speaker 1: very pitcher friendly ballpark. Two point oh four ERA at home, yeah,
30:31
Speaker 1: I got that right. Over the past month, which is
30:34
Speaker 1: when he was acquired by San Diego. He came back
30:37
Speaker 1: in August, had a three point seven to five ERA,
30:41
Speaker 1: which is pretty solid, allowed three or fewer earned runs
30:43
Speaker 1: and all but one start, although that one start was
30:46
Speaker 1: at home against a pretty bad San Francisco lineup, so interesting.
30:51
Speaker 1: He didn't pitch well against a bad offense there, and
30:53
Speaker 1: then he followed that up with a six inning shutout
30:55
Speaker 1: against the Dodgers, also at home. But he had a
30:58
Speaker 1: nineteen to ten strike out walk ratio over the month,
31:01
Speaker 1: which is not a good ratio. I mean, it's definitely
31:03
Speaker 1: too many walks. So not everything looks great for Cortes here.
31:08
Speaker 1: Baltimore is familiar with them, Like I said, they have
31:10
Speaker 1: sixty eight career at bats against him, but he has
31:12
Speaker 1: done well against them, twenty seven to seven strike a
31:15
Speaker 1: walk ratio one ninety one batting average, allowed five to
31:18
Speaker 1: seventy five ops. And by the way, my play that
31:24
Speaker 1: I have here is going to involve an offense being
31:27
Speaker 1: familiar with a pitcher that used to me in their division.
31:29
Speaker 1: By the way, but it's not this game. Cortes does
31:32
Speaker 1: actually have the better matchup numbers here, so and San Diego,
31:36
Speaker 1: I mean, they've got to come out motivated here as well.
31:38
Speaker 1: So the motivational aspect of this worries me as well.
31:41
Speaker 1: But san Diego is public. They're sitting at minus one
31:43
Speaker 1: fifty eight on the money line, ninety percent of tickets,
31:46
Speaker 1: only seventy four percent of the cash, So it looks
31:48
Speaker 1: like the cash percentage is fading san Diego here and
31:52
Speaker 1: coming in on Baltimore again at that price, which I
31:56
Speaker 1: wouldn't disagree with it. If you're gonna go with Baltimore,
31:59
Speaker 1: I think you got to do it in the five
32:00
Speaker 1: innings though, because their bullpen is at a disadvantage, the
32:05
Speaker 1: under is taking money and I wouldn't really disagree with
32:07
Speaker 1: that either. It flipped from eight and a half juice
32:09
Speaker 1: to the over eight and a half juice to the
32:10
Speaker 1: under ninety two percent of tickets on the over eighty
32:13
Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on the over, between the
32:15
Speaker 1: fact that Povich is unfamiliar to San Diego and Cortes
32:18
Speaker 1: does in fact have good numbers against Baltimore. I and
32:21
Speaker 1: it's a picture friendly park. You got one good bullpen.
32:24
Speaker 1: At least I could see that game going under. You
32:26
Speaker 1: could try to do an under first five innings as well,
32:30
Speaker 1: So it's interesting. It's not a game that I would
32:33
Speaker 1: want to have my money on though personally, but those
32:36
Speaker 1: are the ways that I probably would look at that game.
32:38
Speaker 1: I mean, basically, I'm just reading the market when it
32:40
Speaker 1: comes down to it, because when you have a game
32:41
Speaker 1: with a lot of conflicting factors, like sometimes I'll just
32:44
Speaker 1: use what's going on in the market as kind of
32:47
Speaker 1: the clincher. Because the professional I mean the guys that
32:50
Speaker 1: are putting their own money on at the professionals that
32:52
Speaker 1: are putting big money on it, there's a reason why
32:54
Speaker 1: they're putting big money on something, and they probably know
32:56
Speaker 1: more than you do in a lot of cases, So
32:58
Speaker 1: that's what you know. That's why the market read is
33:03
Speaker 1: fairly significant Dodgers at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh actually won the first
33:07
Speaker 1: game of the series yesterday, even though they were returning
33:10
Speaker 1: from a road trip. Pittsburgh, of course, doesn't have anything
33:12
Speaker 1: to play for except you know, this is the type
33:15
Speaker 1: of game they're probably gonna get up for, though with
33:17
Speaker 1: the Dodgers playing in their home stadium, you know Pittsburgh
33:20
Speaker 1: will get up for a game like this. But the Dodgers,
33:22
Speaker 1: after getting punched in the mouth yesterday and the fact
33:25
Speaker 1: that they need to continue to win to win their division,
33:28
Speaker 1: they're probably gonna show up as well. Pittsburgh actually has
33:32
Speaker 1: the better bullpen of the two. The Dodgers' bullpen is
33:34
Speaker 1: not very good, Pittsburgh's is slightly better. Dodgers also used
33:38
Speaker 1: more relief pitchers yesterday, five compared to three, so Dodgers
33:42
Speaker 1: bullpen not in great shape and they might have to
33:45
Speaker 1: use their bullpen for a decent amount of this game.
33:48
Speaker 1: Because show, hey, Otani is gonna start for the Dodgers here,
33:52
Speaker 1: they are ramping up his pitch count, though he did
33:54
Speaker 1: go five innings in his most recent start for the
33:56
Speaker 1: first time, because remember he hasn't pitched. He hadn't pitched
33:59
Speaker 1: before this year. For like a couple of years, he's
34:02
Speaker 1: been okay pitching this year four point one eight ERA,
34:05
Speaker 1: one point two to one WHIP. Of course he's pitching
34:07
Speaker 1: in I believe hitting in the same game. If I'm
34:10
Speaker 1: not mistaken, I think they because even though the NL
34:12
Speaker 1: has a DH now, I think you're allowed to just
34:15
Speaker 1: have the pitcher in your lineup and not have a DH.
34:18
Speaker 1: Otani hasn't been good on the road though, six point
34:21
Speaker 1: oh six ERA on the road. He did go five
34:23
Speaker 1: innings last time out, like I said, after two bad
34:25
Speaker 1: starts in a row on the road against Anaheim and Colorado.
34:29
Speaker 1: But granted, I mean Colorado cors Field. It's a difficult
34:32
Speaker 1: environment sometimes high elevation, the balls fly out of that ballpark.
34:36
Speaker 1: Although he didn't allow any of them runs in that one,
34:38
Speaker 1: he got hit hard Anaheim, they have a decent offense,
34:42
Speaker 1: did shut down the Reds though in his first five
34:45
Speaker 1: innings start he had nine strikeouts, two walks, two hits allowed,
34:48
Speaker 1: one and run aloud on a solo homer. So Otani
34:51
Speaker 1: did do better again in that last start. Overall, he
34:54
Speaker 1: wasn't great ERA wise in August five point seven to
34:58
Speaker 1: one ERA, but he had good command number, really high
35:01
Speaker 1: strikeout rate twenty seven strikeouts in seventeen a third innings,
35:04
Speaker 1: two walks, So his command numbers kind of indicate that
35:07
Speaker 1: he was pitching better than his ra would tell you.
35:09
Speaker 1: His numbers are not good against Pittsburgh, but only four
35:12
Speaker 1: of their hitters have faced him before. They only have
35:14
Speaker 1: eleven at bats often, but they do have two home runs,
35:17
Speaker 1: both from Henry Davis. So Davis is like Otani's kryptonite.
35:21
Speaker 1: Apparently he turns into Otani with the bat when he
35:25
Speaker 1: faces Otani. Overall, Pittsburgh has a three sixty four batting
35:29
Speaker 1: average one two seventy three ohps, three strikeouts, no walks.
35:33
Speaker 1: But that's those numbers are basically all because Davis has
35:36
Speaker 1: lit him up in that short sample size. So I'm
35:39
Speaker 1: not ready to say that Otani is not gonna pitch
35:42
Speaker 1: well here. I mean Pittsburgh's offense is still bad. Half
35:45
Speaker 1: of their lineup still has never faced him before. Dodgers
35:49
Speaker 1: obviously have the way better offense still here. Braxton Ashcraft
35:53
Speaker 1: is pitching for Pittsburgh. He's been pretty good this year,
35:56
Speaker 1: a two point five eighty R, one point one five whips.
36:00
Speaker 1: He's mostly been a reliever, but he's joined the starting
36:02
Speaker 1: rotation recently. Is he raised a little bit worse at
36:04
Speaker 1: home three point one to three, but that's still pretty good.
36:07
Speaker 1: In August he was good between relief appearances and starting
36:11
Speaker 1: appearances twenty five to three, strikeout walk ratim three point
36:15
Speaker 1: zero nine ERA, and it didn't really change when he
36:17
Speaker 1: started starting. He pitted. He has had three pretty good
36:21
Speaker 1: starts in a row, along one or fewer earned runs
36:23
Speaker 1: in all three, going at least five innings in all three.
36:26
Speaker 1: He's not a guy that's going out there throwing a
36:27
Speaker 1: ton of pitches, but he's very efficient, doesn't put a
36:30
Speaker 1: lot of guys on base, so he is pitching pretty well.
36:34
Speaker 1: And the Dodgers have actually never faced him before, so Ashcraft,
36:39
Speaker 1: he's out there getting the job done man, the Dodgers
36:41
Speaker 1: having not faced him before. I think that a first
36:44
Speaker 1: five inning under is probably the way to look at this.
36:46
Speaker 1: I know yesterday I liked the under as well, and
36:48
Speaker 1: it did not happen, but totals already dropped from eight
36:51
Speaker 1: and a half to eight A slight move there, but
36:53
Speaker 1: seventy six percent tickets on the over sixty percent of
36:56
Speaker 1: the couch on the under. I do think the under
36:58
Speaker 1: first five is the best way to look at this
37:00
Speaker 1: game and avoid the bullpends, especially the Dodgers' bullpen. Just
37:03
Speaker 1: go with both these starting pitches. Plus, you don't know
37:05
Speaker 1: how long Otani's gonna last, but he'll probably get you
37:07
Speaker 1: at least most of the way to five innings. And
37:10
Speaker 1: same with Ashcraft. You're looking at two starters that are
37:13
Speaker 1: probably going to go almost exactly five innings in this one.
37:17
Speaker 1: So the first five inning under does make a lot
37:19
Speaker 1: of sense to me. In this game, the Dodgers are
37:21
Speaker 1: up to minus one to seventy one, is the money
37:23
Speaker 1: line favorite on the road, eighty eight percent of tickets,
37:26
Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the cash on them, they're public.
37:28
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't really see much value in playing
37:30
Speaker 1: the Dodgers. Probably no value in playing them. I mean,
37:34
Speaker 1: it's the Dodgers. You know you're gonna be charged attacks
37:37
Speaker 1: for playing the Dodgers on the road, and there's probably
37:39
Speaker 1: an extra tax with Otani pitching as well. Toronto Cincinnati
37:43
Speaker 1: will be my only best bet of the day, so
37:45
Speaker 1: we'll skip that for now. Cleveland Boston unfortunately went way
37:48
Speaker 1: over the totally yesterday and making me look like a
37:51
Speaker 1: more on Red Sox on the verge of a sweet
37:53
Speaker 1: peer in the series. They've won three games in a row.
37:57
Speaker 1: Red Sox are in a heated battle right now where
37:59
Speaker 1: they can potentially still win the division. They're fighting against
38:02
Speaker 1: the Yankees and Toronto here. They have a day off
38:05
Speaker 1: tomorrow and then they start a road trip against Arizona.
38:08
Speaker 1: So will they overlook Cleveland in this last game? They might?
38:12
Speaker 1: I mean, Red Sox have had the upper hand of
38:14
Speaker 1: the series here, and we know the Red Sox have
38:16
Speaker 1: the much better offense, way better offense than Cleveland does.
38:19
Speaker 1: Red Sox offense is particularly good in Fenway Park as well.
38:23
Speaker 1: The Red Sox have the better bullpen as well, although
38:25
Speaker 1: that advantage is more slight. Cleveland's bullpen is pretty good.
38:30
Speaker 1: You can see both bullpens are actually in the top
38:33
Speaker 1: six in ERA on the season. And then starting pitching,
38:37
Speaker 1: though this is an interesting one. Maybere you basically have
38:41
Speaker 1: two pretty untrustworthy pitchers listed as the starters here, and
38:45
Speaker 1: the Red Sox starter isn't even a starter, he's an opener.
38:49
Speaker 1: Cleveland's starter is Joey Cantillo, who he at least kind
38:53
Speaker 1: of goes out there and gives you like a starter's
38:55
Speaker 1: workload of these, kind of a converted reliever. He's been
38:58
Speaker 1: mediocre this year. Three point nine three ERA, one point
39:01
Speaker 1: four to two whip. He's better on the road three
39:05
Speaker 1: point two eighty. I ran the road he went. I
39:08
Speaker 1: think they sent him down to the minors in mid August,
39:10
Speaker 1: and now September call ups they brought him back up.
39:13
Speaker 1: I mean, I think he is worth a roster spot
39:17
Speaker 1: on the major league roster. I mean he's not that bad.
39:20
Speaker 1: Hold on a second is over the past month, seventeen
39:24
Speaker 1: to eight strike at walk ratio and it's three starts
39:26
Speaker 1: in August. They were all starts. He went at least
39:28
Speaker 1: five innings in all of them. Seventeen to eight strike
39:32
Speaker 1: a walk ratio wasn't exactly that great. Too many walks,
39:37
Speaker 1: but he pitched okay. He allowed one on and run
39:40
Speaker 1: a piece in his last two outings. But Boston is
39:44
Speaker 1: a better offense than those three offenses that he faced
39:46
Speaker 1: Atlanta White Sox in Minnesota. So he is having a
39:49
Speaker 1: step up in class. Basically, his recent appearances where he's
39:53
Speaker 1: had a starters workload, he's pretty much faced all week
39:57
Speaker 1: offenses White Sox twice, bald More, Kansas City, Minnesota, Atlanta.
40:02
Speaker 1: Last time he faced a good offense or decent offense
40:05
Speaker 1: was Houston on the road, and he didn't do particularly
40:07
Speaker 1: well that outing back on July eighth. Four innings pitched,
40:11
Speaker 1: three on runs allowed. So I don't know if he's
40:14
Speaker 1: actually gonna do well in this game. Man, there's certainly
40:16
Speaker 1: a chance the Red Sox could hit him. Red Sox
40:19
Speaker 1: have seen some of him. I mean, most of the
40:22
Speaker 1: Red Sox hitters have at least faced him before. But
40:24
Speaker 1: they only have nine at bats against him, and they
40:26
Speaker 1: haven't really done well. Two strikeouts, no walks, two twenty
40:29
Speaker 1: two average eight sixty seven oh ps is a bit high.
40:32
Speaker 1: I mean, they do have a home run from Rafaela
40:35
Speaker 1: in the mix there against him. Overall, I mean, I'm
40:39
Speaker 1: not totally sold on Cantillo. I mean, he walks too
40:41
Speaker 1: many guys still, his whit is too high. But the
40:43
Speaker 1: Red Sox have Brendan Bernardino listed as their starter. He's
40:47
Speaker 1: only gonna go like one inning, maybe two. He's a
40:49
Speaker 1: relief pitcher, he's an opener. He actually pitched yesterday, So
40:54
Speaker 1: you know you're not gonna get a whole lot out
40:56
Speaker 1: of him here. He's probably gonna give you one inning
40:58
Speaker 1: as an opener, and the Red Sox pay here going
41:00
Speaker 1: with a bullpen game, and the Red Sox almost never
41:03
Speaker 1: do bullpen games, but they actually did one not too
41:06
Speaker 1: long ago with Bernardino. He does have good numbers this
41:10
Speaker 1: season for the most part, three point eight RA, one
41:13
Speaker 1: point two to five whip and he is a little
41:15
Speaker 1: bit worse at home, but three point twenty five RA
41:17
Speaker 1: is not exactly bad. He just faced Cleveland again because
41:21
Speaker 1: he pitched yesterday. He pitched one inning and it was
41:24
Speaker 1: just a clean inning with literally no stats. He didn't
41:27
Speaker 1: strike anybody out, nor did he put anybody on base,
41:30
Speaker 1: So he had a good inning yesterday against Cleveland. It
41:33
Speaker 1: doesn't really matter though. I don't even know which one
41:36
Speaker 1: of these appearances was his opener, and by the way,
41:38
Speaker 1: I think it was against Baltimore in August twenty fifth,
41:40
Speaker 1: I think was the game that he had an opener.
41:42
Speaker 1: He went one inning in that one, gave up one hit,
41:44
Speaker 1: and had two strikeouts, no walks, so it was a
41:47
Speaker 1: clean inning for him there pretty much as well. So
41:50
Speaker 1: again you're gonna get probably one inning out of him
41:53
Speaker 1: here and then the Red Sox will turn over to
41:54
Speaker 1: the bullpen, so over analyzing, I mean, yeah, you don't
41:58
Speaker 1: want to overanalyze Bernardino his role in this game, although
42:01
Speaker 1: he does have good numbers against Cleveland sixteen at bats,
42:04
Speaker 1: six' four straying a walk ratio is not, good but
42:06
Speaker 1: a one to twenty five average four twenty five. Ohps
42:09
Speaker 1: but you know you're getting A Red sox bullpen game.
42:11
Speaker 1: Here and, yes the bullpen is good and they are
42:14
Speaker 1: fairly well, rested and we're In september call up mode.
42:18
Speaker 1: Now The Red sox used three relief pitchers, yesterday Including,
42:21
Speaker 1: bernardino so some of the other guys are still available.
42:24
Speaker 1: Here Red sox also are no stranger to be using
42:28
Speaker 1: certain relievers multiple days in a. Row cleveland used four
42:31
Speaker 1: relief pitchers, yesterday and they use some of their better
42:34
Speaker 1: ish relievers yesterday, Too So cleveland's, bullpen their better leverage
42:39
Speaker 1: bullpen arms aren't really available in this. One so all
42:42
Speaker 1: that being, SAID i actually probably need to do an
42:44
Speaker 1: over in this, game and that's where the money is coming.
42:46
Speaker 1: IN i, know YESTERDAY i thought the complete opposite and
42:49
Speaker 1: it went, Over so you know that means this one's
42:51
Speaker 1: gonna go, under, Right But cleveland, UP i Mean excuseually
42:54
Speaker 1: the total is up about to nine with more heavy
42:57
Speaker 1: juice on the. Over if you play the over, here
42:59
Speaker 1: you want to try to get it over nine and
43:01
Speaker 1: not nine and a half, man because the key number is.
43:03
Speaker 1: Nine it's how you break a four to four. Tie
43:05
Speaker 1: we have sixty nine percent of, tickets ninety three percent
43:07
Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. Here Red sox have
43:11
Speaker 1: moved up for minus one thirty one forty five on
43:13
Speaker 1: the money, line eighty seven percent of, tickets ninety nine
43:16
Speaker 1: percent of the cash in, them WHICH i don't buy that,
43:18
Speaker 1: number But Red sox appear to have the money coming
43:21
Speaker 1: in on. Them BUT i prefer the over in that,
43:23
Speaker 1: game and you, know obviously it would be full. GAME i,
43:28
Speaker 1: mean not factoring in the bullpens doesn't really make a
43:31
Speaker 1: whole lot of sense when you know The Red sox
43:32
Speaker 1: are going with a bullpen game And cleveland you're probably
43:35
Speaker 1: only gonna get like five innings out of their starter
43:38
Speaker 1: at most, only but you're he's probably not gonna go
43:41
Speaker 1: further than five. Innings let's Say seattle At Tampa. Bay
43:44
Speaker 1: we know this, stadium Man Steinbrunner. Fields Tampa bay's a
43:49
Speaker 1: temporary home in The Yankee Spring Training. Stadium it's a
43:52
Speaker 1: very hitter friendly, park and that can affect These seattle
43:55
Speaker 1: pitchers because These seattle pitchers are really used to pitching
43:58
Speaker 1: one of the most pitcher friendly parks In, seattle and
44:00
Speaker 1: they're all worse on the. Road and that's kind of
44:04
Speaker 1: reared its head in this series As tampa's won both
44:06
Speaker 1: games in the series so. Far tampa's on a five
44:09
Speaker 1: game win. Streak even Though tampa while not mathematically eliminated
44:13
Speaker 1: and they aren't five hundred, now so they are playing
44:16
Speaker 1: with some motivation. Here they have a good team coming
44:18
Speaker 1: into their house, here But tampa they're pretty much out of.
44:22
Speaker 1: It So seattle does technically have more to play for.
44:24
Speaker 1: Here seattle they're, fading man, like they're still trying to
44:27
Speaker 1: battle for the. Division they're trying to battle just to
44:29
Speaker 1: make a wild card spot. Here SO i do Think
44:31
Speaker 1: seattle does have more motivation. Here they're trying to avoid
44:34
Speaker 1: a sweep here as. Well Tampa bay don't know if
44:38
Speaker 1: they're going to be looking ahead or. Not let me,
44:39
Speaker 1: SEE i looked at. Earlier i'm, like, OH i don't have. Anybody,
44:41
Speaker 1: yeah they Have cleveland up next starting, tomorrow SO i
44:44
Speaker 1: don't think that's really. Caused for a look, ahead both
44:48
Speaker 1: teams have decent. Bullpens, Here seattle has the better. OFFENSE
44:52
Speaker 1: i Think tampa has the better bullpen out of the.
44:55
Speaker 1: Tube But tampa used a lot of relief. Pitchers yes
44:57
Speaker 1: to say five relief. Pitchers, again it is you have
45:00
Speaker 1: more bullpen arms to work. With that's still a lot of.
45:02
Speaker 1: Relievers seattle did also use. Five, well they use a
45:05
Speaker 1: couple of them for very few, pitches so those guys
45:08
Speaker 1: might be available again. Here but, GENERALLY i Think seattle
45:12
Speaker 1: has the offensive edge Of tampa as the bullpen edge in,
45:15
Speaker 1: general but it is actually fairly. CLOSE i, think Although
45:17
Speaker 1: tampa is the top ten bullpenny ra, wise We're. Seattle actually,
45:22
Speaker 1: yeah they're Twelfth's actually they're pretty. Close and Then seattle
45:26
Speaker 1: as far as their offense is, Concerned, yeah they're actually
45:29
Speaker 1: pretty close as, well twelfth Versus tampa being fourteenth ops. Wise,
45:33
Speaker 1: now starting, pitching, GENERALLY i would Say seattle's starting pitcher
45:37
Speaker 1: is the better one At George, kirkby but he's really
45:40
Speaker 1: bad on the, road So i'm not so sure about that.
45:44
Speaker 1: Here his numbers are good on the season three point
45:46
Speaker 1: nine four one point one six. Whip, again he's not
45:50
Speaker 1: as good on the, road not really, bad but four
45:52
Speaker 1: point seven THREE era on the road is not. Good
45:56
Speaker 1: his worst start Over august was actually at, home surprising
45:59
Speaker 1: against Them. Matts he got lit up for seven, runs
46:02
Speaker 1: but if you exclude that, game he allowed two or
46:04
Speaker 1: fewer earned runs in every start In august besides that
46:08
Speaker 1: in in the two starts to End july as, well
46:10
Speaker 1: so six of his last seven starts he's allowed two
46:13
Speaker 1: or fewer earned. Runs so he is in good form right.
46:16
Speaker 1: Now three point five TWO era Over august twenty nine
46:19
Speaker 1: to eight strike a walk. Ratio he's been in good
46:21
Speaker 1: form over the past couple of. Months man So kirby
46:25
Speaker 1: is pitching, well but, again this is a difficult stadium
46:28
Speaker 1: to pitch. In he does have good numbers Against. Tampa
46:30
Speaker 1: it's a small sample, size but they're only three for
46:32
Speaker 1: twenty seven off, him one extra base hit a double From,
46:35
Speaker 1: daz eight, strikeouts two. Walks it's one to eleven average
46:39
Speaker 1: and three twenty one, ops so he does do well
46:42
Speaker 1: Against tampa in that sample. Size Adrian howser pitching For
46:46
Speaker 1: Tampa Coody ray on the season two point eight, five
46:49
Speaker 1: which includes u spending a lot of the season with
46:51
Speaker 1: The White sox where he was pitching pretty well for
46:54
Speaker 1: The White sox, man but hasn't been as good With.
46:57
Speaker 1: TAMPA i thought he was pitching a little bit over
46:59
Speaker 1: his head had with The White, sox like he was
47:01
Speaker 1: overperforming a, bit facing a lot of bad offenses in
47:05
Speaker 1: the mix. There he's got a one point three THREE,
47:07
Speaker 1: era so that indicates that his era is one point
47:10
Speaker 1: three to three Whip excuse? Me is that indicates that
47:12
Speaker 1: his era is a bit. Misleading he is better at
47:16
Speaker 1: home two point oh eighty r a at, home but
47:18
Speaker 1: that was all basically with The White. Sox, yes, sir thank, you.
47:22
Speaker 1: Sir have a good day at, Work curtis meetings sucked
47:27
Speaker 1: by the, way put your headphones, in sneak a, listen all, right,
47:32
Speaker 1: man have a good. Day but, yeah with With, Tampa
47:36
Speaker 1: houser hasn't been as good As he's only made one
47:38
Speaker 1: start in this, stadium and you, know pictures might have
47:42
Speaker 1: difficult to adapt into a stadium like, this, man because
47:44
Speaker 1: again it's a spring training stadium where the walls are really,
47:46
Speaker 1: close so it's a very hitter friendly. Ballpark and he
47:49
Speaker 1: didn't do well in his one start Against Saint. Louis
47:52
Speaker 1: here you have a fourign runs and six and a
47:54
Speaker 1: third one home, run two, strikeouts two. Walks, generally he
47:58
Speaker 1: just hasn't been that good With, tampa which has been
48:00
Speaker 1: the entirety of His august. Performance nineteen to nine strike
48:04
Speaker 1: at walk ratio four point eighty FIVE, era so not.
48:07
Speaker 1: Great up Against, seattle he doesn't have very good numbers,
48:13
Speaker 1: either seventy two at, bats ten to nine strike a
48:15
Speaker 1: walk ratio is really. Bad to seventy eight average, allowed
48:18
Speaker 1: eight to ninety four ohps also not. Good SO i,
48:22
Speaker 1: MEAN i could definitely see some arguments For seattle in
48:24
Speaker 1: this game because of the. MOTIVATION i, MEAN i Think
48:26
Speaker 1: kirby is the better picture Over. Tampa if you Do,
48:29
Speaker 1: seattle maybe you go first five innings with it instead
48:32
Speaker 1: and avoid the bullpen situation. There but we See seattle's
48:36
Speaker 1: public seventy percent of tickets On. Seattle we know The
48:39
Speaker 1: seattle team with the better, record so the public will
48:41
Speaker 1: be coming out and Playing. Seattle. Here the money is
48:45
Speaker 1: coming in On tampa, though fifty nine percent of the
48:47
Speaker 1: cash On. Tampa tampa's been one of the teams that
48:50
Speaker 1: gets a lot of the professional money. RECENTLY i think
48:53
Speaker 1: part of it is That tampa has a pretty good run,
48:55
Speaker 1: Differential like they're like plus at least thirty something and
48:59
Speaker 1: runs this year that's run scored versus ones, Allowed so
49:02
Speaker 1: the run differential is actually better than the record. Is
49:05
Speaker 1: they play in a tough, division, man it's just that's
49:07
Speaker 1: the way that it. Is tampa is a decent, team
49:10
Speaker 1: so that's part of the reason WHY i think the
49:12
Speaker 1: money's coming on In. TAMPA i could see an argument
49:15
Speaker 1: For seattle with the starting pitching matchup on the first,
49:17
Speaker 1: five BUT i THINK i actually prefer an over in this.
49:20
Speaker 1: Game you see fifty six percent to take his fifty
49:22
Speaker 1: seven percent of cash on the, over totals flip to
49:24
Speaker 1: eight and a half juice to the. OVER i Know
49:26
Speaker 1: kirby has the good matchup, numbers but he is worse
49:29
Speaker 1: than the, road AND i think both of these, pitchers
49:31
Speaker 1: not really used to pitching in the, stadium could, struggle
49:34
Speaker 1: and both teams have decent offenses, here so AGAIN i
49:37
Speaker 1: think it's maybe a product of the stadium. Here. Howser
49:41
Speaker 1: both pitchers are not necessarily as good as they look
49:43
Speaker 1: with their era in this particular, Spot Like kirby is,
49:47
Speaker 1: good but people probably don't realize that he's not that
49:49
Speaker 1: good on the road and he might struggle in this particular.
49:51
Speaker 1: Stadium houser his era makes them look way better than
49:55
Speaker 1: he actually. Is so that's WHY i think Maybe seattle
49:57
Speaker 1: first five innings and the over might be ways to
50:00
Speaker 1: look at that. Game anaheim At Kansas. City Kansas city lost,
50:06
Speaker 1: yesterday which was interesting BECAUSE i had pointed out THAT
50:09
Speaker 1: i kind of Liked Kansas city because it looked Like
50:11
Speaker 1: anaheim was going with a bullpen. Game we know their bullpen,
50:13
Speaker 1: stinks And lorenzen did pitch pretty well For Kansas. City
50:17
Speaker 1: but the thing was That anaheim actually decided to call Up.
50:21
Speaker 1: FARRIS i forget what his name, Is Mike, Ferris Matt Mitch,
50:25
Speaker 1: farris excuse, Me Mitch ferris made his major league debut
50:28
Speaker 1: and he actually did. WELL i, mean he was facing
50:31
Speaker 1: a pretty bad lineup with The royals. Here but IF
50:34
Speaker 1: i had known that at the, TIME i would have
50:36
Speaker 1: been considering an under in this, game because you Had,
50:39
Speaker 1: lorenzen who had been pitching a little bit, better has
50:41
Speaker 1: good numbers Against, anaheim up against a guy making his
50:44
Speaker 1: major league debut against a bad. Offense so unfamiliarity. THERE
50:48
Speaker 1: i probably would have been looking towards an under maybe
50:50
Speaker 1: at least in the first five, innings which did. Happen
50:52
Speaker 1: there was only one run scored across the entire entirety
50:55
Speaker 1: of the first. Five and Then anaheim actually wound up
50:58
Speaker 1: winning the bullpen, battle which is not what you would
51:01
Speaker 1: expect Because Kansas city has the better bullpen. Here anaheim
51:05
Speaker 1: has the better offense. Here as far as the bullpen used.
51:09
Speaker 1: Age we kind of just saw it WHEN i just
51:10
Speaker 1: looked at the box. Score four relievers For, anaheim only
51:13
Speaker 1: two For Kansas. City So Kansas city their bullpen is
51:17
Speaker 1: in the better rest situation as. Well anaheim Is kiden
51:20
Speaker 1: dana making the start, here and he's really really. Young
51:24
Speaker 1: he's twenty, one and there's a possibility that he's good
51:30
Speaker 1: and has high upside. HERE i don't know a whole
51:31
Speaker 1: lot about. HIM i think before his first, START i
51:33
Speaker 1: THINK i kind of analyzed who he, was BUT i
51:36
Speaker 1: forget what the analysis. Was but just looking at what
51:38
Speaker 1: he's done so, Far he's made two, starts one In
51:40
Speaker 1: april and one In, may and he hasn't been to
51:43
Speaker 1: The major since. Then they called him back up For.
51:45
Speaker 1: SEPTEMBER i haven't looked at what he was doing in
51:48
Speaker 1: the minors since then BECAUSE i was just not going
51:49
Speaker 1: to play this. Game but you want to take a
51:51
Speaker 1: look and see what his minor league numbers, were because
51:53
Speaker 1: there's a reason why they called him. Mop even though
51:55
Speaker 1: we Know anaheim's out of, It Kansas city is still
51:58
Speaker 1: fighting a potential to try to make the playoffs. Here
52:01
Speaker 1: So Kansas city does have more motivation, here and they
52:04
Speaker 1: did lose, yesterday so they might be in a little
52:06
Speaker 1: bit of a bounce back scenaro. Here but DANA i,
52:09
Speaker 1: mean there is the possibility that he is actually better
52:11
Speaker 1: than he. Looks his numbers haven't been good so. Far
52:13
Speaker 1: he went three innings in each of his starts so
52:15
Speaker 1: far at the major league, level had six, strikeouts five,
52:18
Speaker 1: walks and he didn't face good Offenses cleveland And, miami
52:21
Speaker 1: But Kansas city is not a good offense. Either but,
52:25
Speaker 1: overall seven point FIVE ra two. WHIP i, mean he
52:29
Speaker 1: wasn't good so, far but that doesn't mean that he isn't.
52:31
Speaker 1: Good it just means that he's not used to pitching
52:33
Speaker 1: in the. Majors yet you know they're growing pains. Whatever of,
52:36
Speaker 1: Course Kansas city has never seen him, before so he
52:38
Speaker 1: does have that edge of being unfamiliar To Kansas. City.
52:41
Speaker 1: Here don't know if we can fully trust him, though
52:44
Speaker 1: because he hasn't really shown the ability at the major
52:47
Speaker 1: league level. Yet Ryan bergere is pitching For Kansas. City
52:50
Speaker 1: he's the guy that got right around the trade, DEADLINE
52:53
Speaker 1: i presume From San. Diego he's got good numbers on
52:57
Speaker 1: the season two point six to SEVEN, yrra one point
52:59
Speaker 1: one one, whip a little bit worse at home three
53:03
Speaker 1: point FIVE, ra which is interesting because both of his
53:06
Speaker 1: teams that he's been with have good pitching, Parks San
53:09
Speaker 1: diego And Kansas. City this past month he's been pretty
53:12
Speaker 1: good twenty five to eight strike a walk. Ratio this
53:14
Speaker 1: was all With Kansas city two point five For. Era
53:17
Speaker 1: he allowed two or fewer ear runs two or one
53:20
Speaker 1: specifically in every single. Outing he's in pretty good for
53:23
Speaker 1: him right. Now he Doesn't, YEAH i, Mean i'm not
53:26
Speaker 1: sure that he's a huge strikeout pitcher, necessarily but he
53:29
Speaker 1: is pitching pretty well right. Now he's in good form
53:31
Speaker 1: And anaheim has barely seen him. Before Only peraza has
53:34
Speaker 1: ever seen him, before and he's zero for too, often
53:37
Speaker 1: So he's got an unfamiliarity edge as well, here so
53:40
Speaker 1: it is. INTERESTING i would have a slight lean To
53:44
Speaker 1: Kansas city in this, game but the money is disagreeing with.
53:46
Speaker 1: THAT i think they have the bullpen. EDGE i THINK
53:49
Speaker 1: i trust their starting pitcher more So. Anaheim really their
53:52
Speaker 1: edge is their, offense but, kids AND i like pitching over.
53:55
Speaker 1: Offense Kiss city down for my just one seventy one
53:58
Speaker 1: to minus one sixty eight ninety six tickets on them
54:00
Speaker 1: only eighty four percent of the, cash SO i kind of,
54:03
Speaker 1: hesitate and it's a huge price On Kansas. CITY i
54:05
Speaker 1: think that's part of the reason why the money's coming
54:07
Speaker 1: in Against Kansas. CITY i think you're paying attacks for
54:10
Speaker 1: them just based on who these what like what the
54:13
Speaker 1: starting pitchers eras are in the fact That Kansas city
54:16
Speaker 1: needs to. Win but then, Again, ANAHEIM i keep, saying
54:19
Speaker 1: is worse than the record even. Looks anaheim has a
54:21
Speaker 1: very bad run, differential like SOMEWHERE i think in the
54:24
Speaker 1: negative forties right, now which is like bottom five in
54:29
Speaker 1: all of. Baseball so somebody keep in mind. There BUT
54:32
Speaker 1: i don't think you really lay a price like this
54:34
Speaker 1: With Kansas city because their games tend to be. Close
54:36
Speaker 1: they don't score a, lot which is also the problem
54:39
Speaker 1: with laying a run line With Kansas, city and they
54:41
Speaker 1: might not bat in the ninth, inning so very difficult
54:44
Speaker 1: to do that. Too there is a possibility even under,
54:48
Speaker 1: him maybe you want to look at it first Five
54:50
Speaker 1: indians because you do have two starting pitchers that are,
54:52
Speaker 1: unfamiliar and Maybe dana will start doing better. HERE i
54:57
Speaker 1: mean it is definitely a risk because he hasn't been that.
54:59
Speaker 1: Good i'm more Withje so you could go even more
55:02
Speaker 1: like crazy and go you could Go anaheim under their team.
55:06
Speaker 1: Total in the full game between Burje air And Kansas
55:08
Speaker 1: city's a, bullpen they might be able to get the
55:10
Speaker 1: job done. There the totals high at nine and to,
55:13
Speaker 1: me a game In Kaufman stadium with a weak offense
55:17
Speaker 1: here With Kansas City Kansas city with decent pitching, here
55:20
Speaker 1: that seems like the total is too high to me
55:22
Speaker 1: though in, general so some ways to maybe think about
55:26
Speaker 1: that Game atlanta at The. Cubs cubs are still they're, fighting,
55:30
Speaker 1: Man they're trying to make the playoffs here potentially trying
55:35
Speaker 1: to catch up in their division at least trying to
55:37
Speaker 1: make wild card. Spot they have one four of their last,
55:39
Speaker 1: five and they're on the verge of potentially Sweeping. Atlanta
55:42
Speaker 1: though actually think they play tomorrow, too If i'm not. Mistaken,
55:45
Speaker 1: Nope i'm. Wrong they. Don't they have tomorrow off for some.
55:47
Speaker 1: REASON i thought this was a four game. Series so
55:49
Speaker 1: The cubs are on the version of Sweep. ATLANTA i,
55:52
Speaker 1: mean they're likely to show up in games like. This
55:54
Speaker 1: they're playing At Wrigley field against The. CUBS i Know
55:57
Speaker 1: atlanta is out of, it but The atlanta is better
56:00
Speaker 1: than the record looks. MAN i, mean the run differential
56:02
Speaker 1: is still indicative that they're a better team than. That
56:05
Speaker 1: they do have more talent than, that which is probably
56:07
Speaker 1: why the money's coming in Towards, atlanta which the professional
56:10
Speaker 1: money has been On atlanta a lot throughout the series.
56:12
Speaker 1: Too clubs eighty three percent of, tickets only seventy two
56:15
Speaker 1: percent of the cash are down for minus one fifty
56:17
Speaker 1: two to minus one forty eight on the money, line
56:20
Speaker 1: money coming on in the under as, well flipping or
56:23
Speaker 1: bringing the number down from eight and a half to
56:25
Speaker 1: eight and a half heavily juiced to the. Under sixty
56:27
Speaker 1: seven percent tickets on the, over fifty two percent of
56:29
Speaker 1: the cash on the. UNDER i see some arguments for
56:32
Speaker 1: the under, here and you want to check the weather
56:34
Speaker 1: report because the wind matters and. Regally but it seems
56:37
Speaker 1: to me if the total is not terribly, high it
56:39
Speaker 1: probably means the wind is not doing a whole lot
56:41
Speaker 1: in this. GAME i think it probably means it's not
56:43
Speaker 1: really blowing hard in or out. TODAY i could see
56:47
Speaker 1: the argument for the under in this, game but you
56:51
Speaker 1: have to worry About Bryce, elder pitcher for In. LANTA i,
56:54
Speaker 1: mean he's the big time question mark here because he's not.
56:57
Speaker 1: Good land only these three relieve pitchers, yesterday The cubs
57:00
Speaker 1: have the better offense and the better. Bullpen cubs only
57:04
Speaker 1: use three relief pitchers. Yesterday cubs get the bullpen edge
57:07
Speaker 1: and the hitting edge, here but their hitting is kind of.
57:09
Speaker 1: Uh it's been pretty lax over the last few, weeks
57:13
Speaker 1: so The cubs have had some issues hitting, recently which
57:16
Speaker 1: might lend itself more towards it's an under in this
57:18
Speaker 1: type of game as. Well atlanta's bullpen isn't that bad.
57:21
Speaker 1: Either both bullpens are. Okay if you look at the pitching,
57:24
Speaker 1: SATs cubs are at eleventh and bullpen e ra And atlanta.
57:28
Speaker 1: NINETEENTH i, mean their bullpen's not, great but it maybe
57:30
Speaker 1: might be decent enough to hold them in this. Game
57:32
Speaker 1: But Bryce elder is really the problem. Here you got
57:35
Speaker 1: to figure out if you think he's actually gonna pitch
57:37
Speaker 1: well in this. Game there are some indicators that he.
57:39
Speaker 1: MIGHT i, know his number. STINK i always say stinks
57:42
Speaker 1: on my. SHOW i don't think he's good five point
57:45
Speaker 1: eight FIVE era one point four to eight. Whip he
57:47
Speaker 1: pitches like an elder, Man SO i mean that's the
57:50
Speaker 1: joke we all. Make he is better on the, road,
57:52
Speaker 1: though so it's starting to, look, oh may, well wait a,
57:55
Speaker 1: minute maybe four point eight TWO era on the, road
57:57
Speaker 1: so he is more serviceable on the. Road two, starts,
58:01
Speaker 1: strangely were actually good against two good lineups in divisional
58:05
Speaker 1: matchups mets In. Philadelphia so does that mean he's pitching
58:09
Speaker 1: well right now and he might be stepping it up
58:10
Speaker 1: and it's good? Offenses? MAYBE i, mean that's pretty. Impressive
58:14
Speaker 1: he gave up two and one ear and run in
58:16
Speaker 1: each of those two. STARTS i went six innings seven
58:20
Speaker 1: innings in those two, starts only gave up six hits
58:22
Speaker 1: over that, span had a nine to four strike out walk, ratio,
58:25
Speaker 1: which of course it's not that, impressive but he didn't
58:28
Speaker 1: walk that many guys there over the course of the.
58:30
Speaker 1: Month four point eight TWO era twenty six to twelve
58:33
Speaker 1: strike out walk. Ratio that's not a good ratio, still
58:36
Speaker 1: but he at least was consistent in only walking two
58:39
Speaker 1: guys every. Outing he's not a huge strikeout, pitcher but
58:43
Speaker 1: he did pitch well in those last two games against good. Offenses,
58:45
Speaker 1: man his numbers actually are good against The cubs for
58:48
Speaker 1: the most. Part small sample, size though twenty four at
58:51
Speaker 1: bats they do have three walks and only one, strikeouts
58:53
Speaker 1: so that's not good for. Him but one sixty seven
58:56
Speaker 1: average and six thirty four, ohps he's done fairly well
59:02
Speaker 1: against The. Cubs and then on The cub, Side cubs
59:04
Speaker 1: have the better starting pitcher man With Cad, horton who
59:07
Speaker 1: is a young. GUY i think this might be his
59:09
Speaker 1: rookie season If i'm not, mistaken and he's having a good. Season,
59:13
Speaker 1: yes it is two point nine TWO era one point
59:16
Speaker 1: one to nine. WHIP i don't know if he's starting
59:19
Speaker 1: to really even wear. DOWN i, mean over the last,
59:21
Speaker 1: month The cubs won five to six starts and won
59:24
Speaker 1: six of his last seven, starts he only gave up
59:27
Speaker 1: four earned runs over the entire. Month he gave up
59:30
Speaker 1: two or fewer earned runs in every, outing one or
59:33
Speaker 1: zero in every out except the most recent, one which
59:35
Speaker 1: was At Course, field and he gave up a home
59:38
Speaker 1: run in that, one so you can kind of give
59:39
Speaker 1: him a pass for what he did. There one point
59:41
Speaker 1: two era over the Over august thirty one to nine
59:45
Speaker 1: strike out walk, ration only eighteen hits allowed in thirty.
59:47
Speaker 1: Innings horton has been on. Man horton not hearing WHO i,
59:53
Speaker 1: guess except that he didn't do very well Against. Milwaukee
59:56
Speaker 1: had kind of a short start, there threw too many,
59:58
Speaker 1: pitches only give one or, run but they kind of
1:00:01
Speaker 1: had to pull him because he was. Struggling whatever the case.
1:00:04
Speaker 1: Was The braves are very unfamiliar with. Him Only freeley
1:00:07
Speaker 1: has hit against him. Before he's zero for two against,
1:00:10
Speaker 1: him So horton does have unfamiliarity here and he is pitching. WELL.
1:00:15
Speaker 1: Jc what's up, Man thanks for hanging, Out. CURTIS i
1:00:18
Speaker 1: had to go to a. MEETING i don't know If
1:00:19
Speaker 1: alex is still hanging around or. Not Hopefully i'm not
1:00:22
Speaker 1: driving people away with my losses. RECENTLY i, Apologize, MAN i,
1:00:26
Speaker 1: Know i'm putting my name behind. IT i, DUDE i mean, again,
1:00:30
Speaker 1: Yeah i'm in a bad stretch right. Now it's just
1:00:32
Speaker 1: the way that it. Is every basically every handicap has
1:00:35
Speaker 1: to go through, it and, man various. Points i'm not
1:00:37
Speaker 1: SAYING i know everything, obviously and you know the nature
1:00:42
Speaker 1: of the, Businesses you're gonna lose a lot of. GAMES i,
1:00:45
Speaker 1: mean you have to, win LIKE i, said like fifty
1:00:47
Speaker 1: three fifty four percent maybe to actually profit in this
1:00:50
Speaker 1: business when you're laying minus one. Ten so, YEAH i,
1:00:53
Speaker 1: MEAN i Know i've been laying a little bit more
1:00:55
Speaker 1: than that in some of these baseball games because baseball
1:00:57
Speaker 1: is just a totally different type of, handicap because it's
1:01:00
Speaker 1: a money line sport with alternate ways of looking at the.
1:01:03
Speaker 1: Games i've been anyway in This cubs, game yet the,
1:01:05
Speaker 1: money LIKE i, said is coming in on the. UNDER i,
1:01:09
Speaker 1: MEAN i GUESS i would actually still lean that way
1:01:12
Speaker 1: surprisingly because you have to try to Dodge elder in
1:01:15
Speaker 1: this game as far as The cubs are. CONCERNED i,
1:01:18
Speaker 1: mean if you want to play on just The horton
1:01:21
Speaker 1: hype and the fact That horton's been. Good you could
1:01:22
Speaker 1: look To atlanta to go under their team. Total might
1:01:25
Speaker 1: be a good way to look at. This With horton
1:01:27
Speaker 1: plus The cubs solid bullpen, here that could be a
1:01:30
Speaker 1: potential way to look at this game as. Well it
1:01:32
Speaker 1: looks like the money's just fading The cubs, man and
1:01:34
Speaker 1: maybe it's too much of a price to look at
1:01:36
Speaker 1: The cubs side in the. Game White sox At minnesota,
1:01:41
Speaker 1: ugly ugly. Series, MINNESOTA i believe on the verge of
1:01:44
Speaker 1: getting swept unless one of these series had some teams
1:01:47
Speaker 1: that are playing, tomorrow though that was this. Series they
1:01:50
Speaker 1: actually played tomorrow. Too but it's been an ugly series
1:01:53
Speaker 1: For minnesota so, far so they might want to get
1:01:55
Speaker 1: back at The White sox and get a win. HERE i,
1:01:57
Speaker 1: mean these teams don't really have a whole lot to
1:01:59
Speaker 1: play for it, point but it's a divisional. Matchup they're
1:02:02
Speaker 1: playing for some divisional, PRIDE i guess not the gay.
1:02:05
Speaker 1: Kind both bullpens are not very, good both offenses are
1:02:10
Speaker 1: not very. Good minnesota has the slightly better. OFFENSE i
1:02:14
Speaker 1: actually think The White sox have this slightly better. Bullpen
1:02:17
Speaker 1: let me, See White sox have a really bad, offense
1:02:20
Speaker 1: so the third. Worst minnesota's is not great, though although
1:02:23
Speaker 1: they're actually up at eighteen so they're kind of a mid,
1:02:26
Speaker 1: offense So minnesotas is actually somewhat significantly. Better as far
1:02:30
Speaker 1: as the bullpens are, concerned, again neither of them are very.
1:02:33
Speaker 1: GOOD i don't even know Where minnesota is at this.
1:02:36
Speaker 1: Point they are twenty. Fourth pretty Bad White sox mid
1:02:40
Speaker 1: now bullpen, wise but STILL i don't really trust these.
1:02:43
Speaker 1: Bullpens White sox only use two relief pitchers yesterday though
1:02:46
Speaker 1: after they HAD i think a bullpen game the game
1:02:48
Speaker 1: prior to that of for the most part or something like,
1:02:51
Speaker 1: that they only use two relief, pitchers so they're bullpen
1:02:54
Speaker 1: is a little bit more rest is they do have
1:02:55
Speaker 1: a bullpen. Edge minnesota only used. Three they did Use
1:02:59
Speaker 1: hatch as a long leaf man, yesterday so the bullpens
1:03:02
Speaker 1: weren't really overworked, yesterday but still they're not. Trustworthy Jendris
1:03:06
Speaker 1: gomez is pitching for The White. Sox he's a guy
1:03:09
Speaker 1: who's BEEN i, think on multiple different teams this, year
1:03:11
Speaker 1: and he's not that. Good five point TWO era and
1:03:14
Speaker 1: one point five FOUR. Whip his career numbers are kind
1:03:17
Speaker 1: of in line with. That he's been particularly bad on
1:03:19
Speaker 1: the road this year eight point zero THREE. Era he
1:03:22
Speaker 1: was making bullpen. Appearances he was on The, yankees The,
1:03:25
Speaker 1: dodgers and then he was on The White. Sox he's
1:03:28
Speaker 1: been on The White sox Since, may but he was
1:03:31
Speaker 1: in the room the miners or he was injured and
1:03:33
Speaker 1: they brought him back up In. August In, august he
1:03:36
Speaker 1: was okay with a three point eight SIX. Era he
1:03:39
Speaker 1: was making, starts but twenty two to eleven strike out
1:03:42
Speaker 1: walk ratio is not very, good and he walked nine
1:03:44
Speaker 1: guys over his last two outings in nine and two thirds.
1:03:48
Speaker 1: Innings didn't make it five innings in. Either one one
1:03:51
Speaker 1: was against This minnesota. Team even though he didn't allow
1:03:53
Speaker 1: when he, runs he threw way too many. Pitches it
1:03:55
Speaker 1: wasn't a good start for him and walking six. GUYS
1:03:58
Speaker 1: i know it was against The. Yankees they're a good,
1:04:00
Speaker 1: offense but that's not good. Man that shows that you
1:04:03
Speaker 1: don't really have. Control SO i don't Think gomez is
1:04:06
Speaker 1: actually really that. Good HIS era over the past month
1:04:11
Speaker 1: makes him look better than he actually. Is his numbers
1:04:13
Speaker 1: Against minnesota are actually, good even even though that start
1:04:16
Speaker 1: didn't look that. Good the numbers are all, right sixteen at. Bats,
1:04:20
Speaker 1: again the three walks weren't very good, though but he's
1:04:23
Speaker 1: only allowed one extra base hit to them a double From,
1:04:25
Speaker 1: larnach six to three strike a walk ratio one to
1:04:29
Speaker 1: twenty five batting, average a lot of four to fifty
1:04:32
Speaker 1: one ops. Allowed so his numbers are actually fairly good Against.
1:04:34
Speaker 1: Minnesota BUT i still don't trust him In minnesota just
1:04:37
Speaker 1: saw him in that might have BEEN i think that
1:04:39
Speaker 1: was the first time basically that they saw. Him, so you,
1:04:41
Speaker 1: know the first time when you face a, pitcher sometimes
1:04:44
Speaker 1: you just can't hit him because you're too unfamiliar with.
1:04:46
Speaker 1: Him but now that they are familiar with, him they
1:04:48
Speaker 1: might be able to hit him better in this. Game,
1:04:50
Speaker 1: andrew what's up? Man, yes tits one of my favorite. Things.
1:04:54
Speaker 1: Man everybody knows That Zebbie. Matthews this pitching From. MINNESOTA
1:05:00
Speaker 1: i mean, again as far as these two pitchers are,
1:05:02
Speaker 1: CONCERNED i Think matthews has more. UPSIDE i think he
1:05:05
Speaker 1: is actually a pretty solid. Pitcher it just hasn't really
1:05:09
Speaker 1: come to fruition. YET i know his numbers are bad
1:05:11
Speaker 1: this year five point SIX, era one point four to eight.
1:05:14
Speaker 1: Whip he is better at home, though four point seventy
1:05:17
Speaker 1: r eight, home so he has the advantage of the
1:05:19
Speaker 1: home road. Splits he's been. Pitching he's been back pitching
1:05:24
Speaker 1: in The major since Mid, july basically month Of. August
1:05:27
Speaker 1: he was okay when the twenty eight to nine strike
1:05:29
Speaker 1: a walk ratio four point two SIXTY ira allowed three
1:05:33
Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs and all but one. Start but
1:05:35
Speaker 1: that was a start against The White. Sox at The White,
1:05:38
Speaker 1: sox he only lasted four to two, thirds got hit
1:05:41
Speaker 1: around man to give up eight it's four and, runs three,
1:05:44
Speaker 1: walks four. Strikeouts that wasn't Good So, MATTHEWS i, MEAN
1:05:50
Speaker 1: i think he actually doesn't have good numbers against The White.
1:05:52
Speaker 1: Sox that was a bad. Start whoops against The White, Sox,
1:05:57
Speaker 1: yeah sixteen at bats it might have all been. That one,
1:05:59
Speaker 1: start three, strikeouts two, walks three seventy five batting average
1:06:03
Speaker 1: Allow montgomery as a home run off him one thy
1:06:05
Speaker 1: sixty nine o. Ps The math doesn't do well against.
1:06:08
Speaker 1: Him so all that being, SAID i can't really trust
1:06:13
Speaker 1: either pitcher. HERE i do Trust. Math he's a little
1:06:15
Speaker 1: bit more Than gomez. Here, YEAH i, MEAN i think
1:06:20
Speaker 1: this game is an over in my opinion even than
1:06:22
Speaker 1: it looks like the total flip from eight and a
1:06:24
Speaker 1: half juice to the, over to juice to the. Under
1:06:26
Speaker 1: we've seen ninety percent of, tickets ninety four percent of
1:06:28
Speaker 1: the cash on the. Over it is a very public. Over,
1:06:31
Speaker 1: SURPRISINGLY i pointed out, YESTERDAY i gave it a play
1:06:33
Speaker 1: on the. Over that was the one WINNER i had
1:06:35
Speaker 1: yesterday and yesterday it seemed like the public kind of
1:06:37
Speaker 1: wanted the under because they know both of these teams can't.
1:06:41
Speaker 1: Hit BUT i don't think the public is really playing
1:06:43
Speaker 1: a total in this. Series. REALLY i don't think there's
1:06:45
Speaker 1: a lot of public action on the series at. All, so,
1:06:50
Speaker 1: yeah the over is public in this, one BUT i,
1:06:53
Speaker 1: mean it looks like to me it could be an
1:06:54
Speaker 1: over again in this. One we do have good matchup
1:06:57
Speaker 1: numbers on the side Of, gomez BUT i actually trust maths.
1:07:00
Speaker 1: More minnesota up for minus one sixty five to minus
1:07:03
Speaker 1: one seventy, three eighty two percent tickets on, them but
1:07:05
Speaker 1: eighty four percent of the cash coming in on The White.
1:07:08
Speaker 1: Sox so money coming in on The White. SOX i,
1:07:10
Speaker 1: MEAN i think part of that is Who's minnesota to
1:07:13
Speaker 1: really be favored by this much against anybody. REALLY i
1:07:16
Speaker 1: think that's kind of the, Thing like the line just
1:07:18
Speaker 1: looks too heavy of a price on A minnesota. Team
1:07:21
Speaker 1: probably they don't deserve to be favored by that. MUCH
1:07:25
Speaker 1: i would lead To minnesota earlier in the, game probably
1:07:27
Speaker 1: first five, innings maybe run, line But White sox full
1:07:30
Speaker 1: game might make more sense with their bullpen advantage than
1:07:33
Speaker 1: they might have. Here philadelphia At milwaukee one of the
1:07:36
Speaker 1: biggest games of the. Day milwaukee lost yesterday ten to
1:07:40
Speaker 1: eight or two days. Ago excuse, me these teams are off,
1:07:43
Speaker 1: yesterday which is odd that they had an off day
1:07:46
Speaker 1: on A. Tuesday usually the off days Are mondays And
1:07:49
Speaker 1: thursdays in, baseball SO i don't know if there was
1:07:52
Speaker 1: a scheduling. CONFLICT i don't know what was going on
1:07:54
Speaker 1: At Milwaukee stadium or, whatever but they had yesterday. Off
1:07:58
Speaker 1: So milwaukee lost the first game of this year two days.
1:08:00
Speaker 1: Ago after they had the lead early in the, game
1:08:02
Speaker 1: they blew it and lost ten to. Eight both teams still. Fighting.
1:08:06
Speaker 1: Man milwaukee wants to make sure they win THE Nl.
1:08:08
Speaker 1: Central they want to try to make sure they get
1:08:10
Speaker 1: the one. Seed philadelphia trying to wrap up THE Nl
1:08:13
Speaker 1: east and try to play for their seeding as. WELL
1:08:15
Speaker 1: i think they can get a first round by in
1:08:18
Speaker 1: the playoffs as. Well so these teams have something to play. For,
1:08:21
Speaker 1: Obviously milwaukee has the better of the two. Bullpens of,
1:08:24
Speaker 1: course the bullpen's. ARRESTED i don't even need to really.
1:08:27
Speaker 1: LOOK i, mean the bullpen's didn't get used. Yesterday philly's
1:08:30
Speaker 1: bullpen has struggled a bit this. Year they're one of
1:08:33
Speaker 1: the bottom third. Bullpens milwaukee is mediocre a they're actually
1:08:37
Speaker 1: back up in the top, ten basically almost in the top. Third,
1:08:40
Speaker 1: Again phillies had the better. Offense milwaukee's isn't too bad.
1:08:43
Speaker 1: Either both teams can. Hit we know. This philly is
1:08:46
Speaker 1: a top ten. Offense milwaukee and where are they at?
1:08:48
Speaker 1: Now why DON'T i See? Milwaukee where the hell are? They? Oh,
1:08:52
Speaker 1: yeah they're right. There both of them are top ten,
1:08:54
Speaker 1: Offenses milwaukee a little bit worse at home. Though, interestingly
1:08:58
Speaker 1: starting Pitching Aaron nola For. Philadelphia he's a, Guy he's
1:09:03
Speaker 1: a lot better than his. Numbers look this, year, man
1:09:05
Speaker 1: he's had a really injury plague. Season so at some
1:09:07
Speaker 1: POINT i think we're gonna see him return to his
1:09:10
Speaker 1: old form to some. Extent although it's tough to gauge
1:09:13
Speaker 1: when a guy like. HIM i think he's coming back
1:09:15
Speaker 1: From Tommy john, surgery so sometimes when you're in your,
1:09:17
Speaker 1: thirties it's really hard to come back from, that and
1:09:20
Speaker 1: it hasn't really worked out for him. Yet six point
1:09:22
Speaker 1: four to SEVEN, era one point five whip not good
1:09:25
Speaker 1: numbers this, year pretty limited, sample though he's slightly better
1:09:28
Speaker 1: on the. Road six point three to NINE era not
1:09:31
Speaker 1: good this. Month his command numbers have been, okay fourteen
1:09:35
Speaker 1: to five strike at walk. Ratio philly won all three
1:09:38
Speaker 1: of his, starts but seven point five to THREE, era
1:09:40
Speaker 1: that's not. Great did go six innings in each of
1:09:43
Speaker 1: his last two, starts but Against washington And. Atlanta still
1:09:49
Speaker 1: he allowed four or fewer in runs in both of.
1:09:51
Speaker 1: Them BUT i, mean, yeah you got to try to
1:09:54
Speaker 1: figure out what's going on with him. Here. Man he
1:09:56
Speaker 1: came back In august after having another. INJURY i think
1:09:59
Speaker 1: he came back from injury this, season was then injured
1:10:02
Speaker 1: again for a lot of this season and came. Back
1:10:04
Speaker 1: so at least he's not wearing down towards the end
1:10:07
Speaker 1: of the. Season but he's a. Veteran he's used to
1:10:08
Speaker 1: pitching long into a major league season at this, point
1:10:12
Speaker 1: some indicators maybe that he is kind of rounding back
1:10:15
Speaker 1: into form a little bit, here so he may at
1:10:17
Speaker 1: some point get. Better he does have good career numbers
1:10:19
Speaker 1: against The brewers one hundred and nine at, bats really,
1:10:22
Speaker 1: solid thirty to three strikeout walk ratio two twenty nine
1:10:25
Speaker 1: average a lot six eight. Ops not quite ready to
1:10:30
Speaker 1: bank on him, here but there are arguments that he
1:10:32
Speaker 1: may actually be the better of these two pitchers here
1:10:34
Speaker 1: at this. Point Jose quintana having a good season From
1:10:38
Speaker 1: milwaukee al though again he's a guy that's kind of
1:10:40
Speaker 1: a junk. Pitcher he's older Than nola as. Well he
1:10:44
Speaker 1: does locate his pitches pretty, well BUT i mean he's
1:10:47
Speaker 1: a guy THAT i think he's pretty hittable at. Times
1:10:49
Speaker 1: he's got a three point six to NINE, era one
1:10:51
Speaker 1: point two to nine whip, now so his whip is going.
1:10:54
Speaker 1: Up he's been pretty bad at home this year surprisingly
1:10:57
Speaker 1: five point zero FIVE era at, home not good this past,
1:11:00
Speaker 1: month twenty two to, ten strike, a walk ratio four
1:11:03
Speaker 1: point one EIGHTY ra really bad last time, out probably
1:11:06
Speaker 1: his worst start of the. Year six onned, runs a
1:11:08
Speaker 1: lot in three and two, thirds four walks two strikeouts Against.
1:11:12
Speaker 1: Arizona it's a good Offense. Arizona but is that gonna
1:11:16
Speaker 1: be a blip because that was kind of an outlier
1:11:18
Speaker 1: on the. Season that was his worst start of the.
1:11:20
Speaker 1: Season prior to, that he hadn't allowed more than three
1:11:22
Speaker 1: and runs in any start over the entire month Of.
1:11:25
Speaker 1: August so does that mean he's gonna bounce? Back, yeah it.
1:11:28
Speaker 1: MIGHT i, MEAN i don't think he's gonna be that
1:11:30
Speaker 1: bad again. Here But philly is a good. Offense his
1:11:32
Speaker 1: numbers are pretty good against, him, though but they are
1:11:34
Speaker 1: very familiar With kintana Because i'm pretty sure he was
1:11:36
Speaker 1: on The mets for a, while so he was in their.
1:11:38
Speaker 1: Division they have two hundred and forty eight at bats against,
1:11:41
Speaker 1: him fifty nine to thirteen strike a walk ratio is
1:11:44
Speaker 1: a pretty good ratio For. Kintana he has good numbers
1:11:46
Speaker 1: against him to twenty six average six nineteen oh ps against.
1:11:50
Speaker 1: Him so, interestingly both starting, pitchers, Man i'm not sure
1:11:54
Speaker 1: that they're totally trustworthy, here but they do have good matchup.
1:11:57
Speaker 1: Numbers if you think that you're gonna, get you, know
1:12:00
Speaker 1: some good version of both these starting pitchers. Here the
1:12:03
Speaker 1: money seems to be coming Into milwaukee a. Bit they're
1:12:05
Speaker 1: down for minus one to fifteen to minus one o
1:12:07
Speaker 1: nine sixty four percent to take a seventy eight percent
1:12:09
Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on, them thinking maybe they
1:12:11
Speaker 1: bounce back after they blew that first. Game seems like
1:12:14
Speaker 1: there's not a whole lot of trust In nola right,
1:12:16
Speaker 1: now and the money seems to be coming in towards
1:12:18
Speaker 1: the under a little bit total drop from nine and
1:12:21
Speaker 1: a half juiced to the over down to the. Nine
1:12:23
Speaker 1: if you go, under probably want to go under the nine.
1:12:26
Speaker 1: HERE i, MEAN i wouldn't really disagree with an. UNDER
1:12:28
Speaker 1: i think you do have two pictures that could potentially
1:12:30
Speaker 1: do well. Here they have decent matchup. Numbers you have rested,
1:12:33
Speaker 1: bullpens THOUGH i don't know how much you. Trusts philly's
1:12:35
Speaker 1: bullpen seems a little bit dangerous to. Me but the
1:12:38
Speaker 1: public is probably only gonna be on an over. Here
1:12:39
Speaker 1: we have eighty three percent of the public the tickets
1:12:41
Speaker 1: on the. Over don't really know where the money's coming
1:12:44
Speaker 1: yet on that total, though the percentage is obviously not
1:12:47
Speaker 1: one hundred, percent so like the number says, there so we'll.
1:12:51
Speaker 1: See but that's a game THAT i really don't have
1:12:54
Speaker 1: a good read on at. All. MAN i think if
1:12:57
Speaker 1: you get the best out of both of these, PICTURES
1:12:58
Speaker 1: i Think nola is the better these two. PITCHERS i
1:13:01
Speaker 1: hate this fucking emergency broadcast, message, man, like, seriously you,
1:13:06
Speaker 1: know get. Fucked it freaks me, out, man because you
1:13:09
Speaker 1: just hear this thing and you can't get rid of. It,
1:13:11
Speaker 1: GOD i hate. It a's are At Saint, louis and
1:13:14
Speaker 1: of COURSE i leaned to the under. Yesterday of course
1:13:16
Speaker 1: what happened the under. Happened Uh Severn reno pitched well
1:13:20
Speaker 1: on the road, again and then we had whatever happened
1:13:22
Speaker 1: With Saint. LOUIS i forget who their picture was, yesterday
1:13:25
Speaker 1: but they did well. Again whoever their pitcher was did well.
1:13:29
Speaker 1: Unfortunately uh, SO i mean at LEAST i was. Right
1:13:32
Speaker 1: oh it was Me. Colas yeah he's not, good but,
1:13:34
Speaker 1: YEAH i mean he had a good matchup for him.
1:13:36
Speaker 1: There SO i, SAID i leaned to the under in that,
1:13:38
Speaker 1: game and UNFORTUNATELY i didn't give it out as a
1:13:40
Speaker 1: play and it was an easy under in that game.
1:13:42
Speaker 1: Yesterday a's bullpen not exactly. Trustworthy that they've been better.
1:13:46
Speaker 1: Recently they're pretty well rested right now at Least Saint
1:13:49
Speaker 1: louis's bullpen is the better. Bullpen they're pretty rested as.
1:13:53
Speaker 1: Well The a's have the better offense of the. Too
1:13:54
Speaker 1: Saint louis's offense has been really. Struggling, UNFORTUNATELY i gave
1:13:59
Speaker 1: up the under in the first game of this. SERIES
1:14:00
Speaker 1: i think in the first five it was MAYBE i
1:14:03
Speaker 1: forget and it was just. Awful it was. Terrible this.
1:14:07
Speaker 1: Matchup interesting pitching matchup here as. Well Jeffrey springs pitching
1:14:11
Speaker 1: for The. A's he's having a pretty good, season especially
1:14:14
Speaker 1: considering that he pitches in that Ridiculous Sacramento. Ballpark it's
1:14:18
Speaker 1: very hit her. Friendly he's got a four point one
1:14:20
Speaker 1: SEVENTY r one point one to nine whip not. Bad
1:14:22
Speaker 1: he's better on the road away from that stadium three
1:14:25
Speaker 1: point six to SIX. R on the, Road he's been
1:14:29
Speaker 1: okay over the past. Month not, great twenty to eight
1:14:32
Speaker 1: strike a walk. Raceio The a's did lose four of
1:14:34
Speaker 1: his five, starts though uh five point oh four e ra.
1:14:38
Speaker 1: Mediocre did have a let me see His his better
1:14:43
Speaker 1: starts came on the, road though his two roads starts
1:14:45
Speaker 1: all over the. Month you only give a one er
1:14:47
Speaker 1: and run a piece in each of, Them so, again
1:14:49
Speaker 1: he's better outside of that Bad sacramento, stadium very small sample.
1:14:54
Speaker 1: Size ten at bats Against Saint. Louis Although scott has
1:14:57
Speaker 1: a home run off, him they have three to two
1:14:59
Speaker 1: strike aut walk, race you have four hundred batting average one,
1:15:01
Speaker 1: thousand three hundred. Ops So springs has bad numbers against.
1:15:05
Speaker 1: Them BUT i don't know how much you can really
1:15:06
Speaker 1: draw from that because it's such a small sample. Size
1:15:08
Speaker 1: Matthew libratory is pitching For Saint. Louis mediocre stuff from
1:15:13
Speaker 1: him this year four point three TWO, era one point
1:15:16
Speaker 1: three two. Whip he's actually worse at home four point
1:15:19
Speaker 1: five FIVE erra at home over the past, month not
1:15:22
Speaker 1: very good five point four E ra In august nineteen
1:15:25
Speaker 1: to ten strike out walk, ratio failed to go five
1:15:28
Speaker 1: innings in all but two of those, Starts so he's
1:15:30
Speaker 1: not exactly pitching very well right. Now up against The,
1:15:33
Speaker 1: a's his numbers are, bad although it's a small sample. Size,
1:15:36
Speaker 1: again eleven at, bats one, strikeout no, walks four to
1:15:39
Speaker 1: fifty five average one thousand. Ops i'm not ready to
1:15:43
Speaker 1: really Trust libratore, here and this is a GAME i
1:15:46
Speaker 1: don't really trust going undering this. Game the money line
1:15:50
Speaker 1: flipped on The a's from plus one hundred to minus
1:15:52
Speaker 1: one oh, six but they have eighty one percent of
1:15:54
Speaker 1: tickets only seventy five percent of the. Cash so, interestingly
1:15:57
Speaker 1: the public is actually coming in in The a's in this,
1:15:59
Speaker 1: game and it looks like the money is kind of
1:16:01
Speaker 1: fading them a little bit in this. Game BUT i
1:16:03
Speaker 1: THINK i would Trust springs more Than. Libratore he's in
1:16:07
Speaker 1: the better home road split, here he has the advantage
1:16:11
Speaker 1: of the, split and he's got the better recent, Numbers
1:16:14
Speaker 1: SO i think first five Innings a's might be the
1:16:16
Speaker 1: way to look in this. Game in my. OPINION i
1:16:18
Speaker 1: don't really want anything to do with their bullpend, though
1:16:21
Speaker 1: and the money does seem to be coming in on
1:16:23
Speaker 1: the over even though it's ninety four percent of the
1:16:24
Speaker 1: cash or ninety four percent of tickets excuse, me ninety
1:16:27
Speaker 1: nine percent of the. Cash very public over, here but
1:16:30
Speaker 1: it's crept up to eight and have heavily juiced to the,
1:16:32
Speaker 1: over it might hit. NINE i wouldn't really disagree with
1:16:36
Speaker 1: the over, him AND i could see potentially both starting
1:16:40
Speaker 1: pitchers winding up giving up some runs, there and then
1:16:42
Speaker 1: the bullpen's being mad in, that BUT i think PROBABLY
1:16:46
Speaker 1: i Prefer a's in the first five innings. There Surprisingly
1:16:49
Speaker 1: yankees At, Houston LIKE i, Said. Houston of, course the
1:16:54
Speaker 1: schedule makers Gave houston a bad spot yesterday Where houston
1:16:57
Speaker 1: had to play the day before then and The yankees,
1:16:59
Speaker 1: Didn't so of Course houston. Lost this is a big
1:17:03
Speaker 1: series for both teams across the A is In Saint.
1:17:05
Speaker 1: Louis by the, way they're both out of, it so
1:17:06
Speaker 1: there's nothing really to play for it for either team,
1:17:09
Speaker 1: there although The a's kind of seemed to be like
1:17:11
Speaker 1: the more remotivated team down the, stretch just a bunch
1:17:14
Speaker 1: of young guys trying to play out the stretch there
1:17:16
Speaker 1: having some. Fun Yankees houston obviously is a big, game
1:17:19
Speaker 1: and you're playing for, playoffs seating you're pretending you're trying
1:17:23
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs even to begin, with and trying
1:17:26
Speaker 1: to hold on to what you. Have, yesterday some frustrations
1:17:30
Speaker 1: came in From. Rivaldez this guy is a head case.
1:17:32
Speaker 1: Man if he didn't see what happened, yesterday he gave
1:17:35
Speaker 1: up a Grand slam and then he lost his mind
1:17:39
Speaker 1: and he threw a pitch after that which was a
1:17:42
Speaker 1: Wild it was almost a wild. Pitch it wasn't technically
1:17:45
Speaker 1: a wild, pitch but it was way outside off the.
1:17:47
Speaker 1: Plate it was some hard moving, fastball like off the.
1:17:50
Speaker 1: Plate and then the next pitch after, that it looked
1:17:53
Speaker 1: like he intentionally crossed up the catcher where it looked
1:17:56
Speaker 1: like the catcher called. Curveball he, said, yeah so ketcher
1:18:00
Speaker 1: thinks he's gonna throw a curveball and he throws a
1:18:03
Speaker 1: fastball on the inside corner that it looked like it
1:18:06
Speaker 1: was supposed to be a curve ball, Away so the
1:18:07
Speaker 1: catcher was set. Up, catcher you, know is a right handed,
1:18:10
Speaker 1: thrower so the catcher was. Set if you don't get
1:18:13
Speaker 1: What i'm, saying the catcher was set with his, glove you,
1:18:15
Speaker 1: know like, this if you can see What i'm, doing
1:18:17
Speaker 1: that like loan away down towards the. Outside so he's
1:18:19
Speaker 1: thinking it's gonna be a curve ball down, here and
1:18:22
Speaker 1: the city gets high heat on the inside so he
1:18:24
Speaker 1: can't move fast enough and hit him right in the.
1:18:26
Speaker 1: Elbow AND i think and he looked like he was,
1:18:29
Speaker 1: Pissed AND i Think valdez did that, intentionally man to
1:18:32
Speaker 1: his own, teammate like what the. Fuck it was like
1:18:35
Speaker 1: he was mad at the catcher for calling certain pitches
1:18:38
Speaker 1: or something that led to The Grand. SLAM i don't
1:18:40
Speaker 1: know what was going, on, Man valdez kind of an.
1:18:43
Speaker 1: ASSHOLE i don't know what was going on. There you
1:18:45
Speaker 1: can go find the clip of. It it's all Over
1:18:47
Speaker 1: twitter and. Stuff really really. Ridiculous but we don't have
1:18:50
Speaker 1: to worry About valdez pitching in this. Game The yankees
1:18:54
Speaker 1: just love the worst of the two. Bullpens. Here The
1:18:57
Speaker 1: yankees have the better offense of the two. Here yankees
1:19:01
Speaker 1: really really rested, bullpen though only Used Paul blackburn over
1:19:04
Speaker 1: the last two. Days BLACKBURN i didn't even realize he
1:19:07
Speaker 1: was on The, yankees to be, honest he. Was he's
1:19:09
Speaker 1: a journeyman. Pitcher he's been in and out of starting
1:19:12
Speaker 1: rotations for a. While he's kind of a long relief innings,
1:19:15
Speaker 1: eater junk pitcher type of. Guy he's not a great.
1:19:17
Speaker 1: Pitcher but basically all the rest of The yankees relievers
1:19:21
Speaker 1: are available. HERE i mean they. Are houston has three relief, pitchers,
1:19:24
Speaker 1: yesdey So houston's bullpend rests in era isn't, good which
1:19:27
Speaker 1: kind of negates the bullpen advantage That houston would normally
1:19:30
Speaker 1: have a little bit. Here as far as it's starting,
1:19:34
Speaker 1: Pitching Will warren is pitching for The. Yankees mediocre season for.
1:19:39
Speaker 1: HIM i think it's his rookie. Season he's shown some
1:19:42
Speaker 1: decent strikeout, stuff but he has struggled on the. Road
1:19:45
Speaker 1: he struggled with wildness of. Times he has a four
1:19:47
Speaker 1: point THREE, era one point four whip is definitely too.
1:19:50
Speaker 1: High LIKE i, said he's not very good on the.
1:19:52
Speaker 1: Road five point five EIGHTY r on the road over
1:19:55
Speaker 1: the past. Month good e ra two point eight FOUR
1:19:58
Speaker 1: era in All, august but he failed to go five
1:20:01
Speaker 1: innings in two of his last three. Starts twenty one
1:20:04
Speaker 1: to nine strike out walk ratio isn't exactly good over the,
1:20:07
Speaker 1: month SO i think he was kind of getting a
1:20:09
Speaker 1: little bit lucky in some cases over that past. Month
1:20:13
Speaker 1: better did better against some of the bad offenses that
1:20:16
Speaker 1: he Faced Texas Minnesota White, sox even in that with
1:20:20
Speaker 1: a field and kind of like just failed behind. Him
1:20:22
Speaker 1: but even in that he did walk multiple. Guys So
1:20:24
Speaker 1: i'm not ready to say That warren is exactly. Good
1:20:27
Speaker 1: But houston has basically never seen him before him Only
1:20:30
Speaker 1: eurius has ever seen him, before Or. URIUS i don't
1:20:33
Speaker 1: know how to pronounce his. Name he's zero for, four
1:20:35
Speaker 1: often with a strike. Up But warren at least does
1:20:38
Speaker 1: have a little bit of an unfamiliarity edge Against. Houston.
1:20:40
Speaker 1: Here George gastan's a. Pitch, awesome, Man George kastan's a
1:20:45
Speaker 1: pitching For houston against The. Yankees how amazing is? That?
1:20:49
Speaker 1: Man it's so much Of seinfeld going on, here because
1:20:53
Speaker 1: you Remember george when he was working for The yankees
1:20:56
Speaker 1: In seinfeld and he started having all those with The
1:21:00
Speaker 1: Houston astros guys that, were you, know those crude texting,
1:21:04
Speaker 1: guys you son of a, bitch and he, started you,
1:21:06
Speaker 1: know swearing with them and. Whatever it's, hilarious, man totally.
1:21:10
Speaker 1: Hilarious Jason alexander is pitching for The astros. Here his
1:21:13
Speaker 1: stats on the season don't look good four point six
1:21:16
Speaker 1: to one E, ra one point three to seven. Whip
1:21:20
Speaker 1: he's been worse at home five point FOUR, era but
1:21:23
Speaker 1: some of that was that he was pitching with oh
1:21:25
Speaker 1: with The, a's so he was pitching in that bad
1:21:27
Speaker 1: a stadium for a. While so he's actually been better
1:21:30
Speaker 1: since being acquired By, houston and this Month he's actually
1:21:33
Speaker 1: pretty much found his. Groove houston's won six straight starts
1:21:37
Speaker 1: of his five this, month including a six inning shutout
1:21:40
Speaker 1: against The. Yankees Oh man uh twenty six to six
1:21:44
Speaker 1: strike out walk Race yo this, month two point one
1:21:46
Speaker 1: SEVEN era over the past, MONTH i should, say so
1:21:49
Speaker 1: he's actually the pitcher that's in the better form right.
1:21:51
Speaker 1: Now he's pitching, well although The yankees did see, him
1:21:54
Speaker 1: so now that he pitched well against, them once that unfamiliarity,
1:21:57
Speaker 1: edgine he might have had a little bit. Gone now
1:22:00
Speaker 1: HE'S i, MEAN i still don't know if we can
1:22:02
Speaker 1: really trust that what he's doing over this past month
1:22:04
Speaker 1: is really what he, is because, like does a guy
1:22:06
Speaker 1: who's thirty two all of a sudden just become like
1:22:08
Speaker 1: a lights out? Pitcher, no not. Really yankees do have
1:22:13
Speaker 1: twenty six at bats against. HIM a lot of this
1:22:14
Speaker 1: was that previous. Start three to five strike a walk
1:22:17
Speaker 1: ratio is not good for, him but he's sell him
1:22:19
Speaker 1: to a one to fifteen average at five twenty seven.
1:22:21
Speaker 1: Ops it is possibly just well Again man And Will,
1:22:25
Speaker 1: warren though he did not Face houston during that, series
1:22:28
Speaker 1: by the, way So warren does have an unfamiliarity Edge
1:22:31
Speaker 1: yankees are a huge favorite or fairly sizeable. FAVOR i,
1:22:35
Speaker 1: mean you know that's gonna be the case with a
1:22:37
Speaker 1: no name pitcher Like alexander on the. Mound yankees are
1:22:40
Speaker 1: a heavier favorite than they were, yesterday interestingly because they
1:22:44
Speaker 1: Had Max freed on the mound. Yesterday yank is, rough
1:22:47
Speaker 1: but it was Against, frombervaldaz who's also pretty good all
1:22:50
Speaker 1: being an, asshole and he wasn't good. Yesterday yankees up
1:22:54
Speaker 1: for minus one o five to minus one twenty, three
1:22:56
Speaker 1: seventy five percent of, tickets only sixty percent of the,
1:22:58
Speaker 1: cash so the money used to actually be fading a
1:23:01
Speaker 1: public road Favorite yankees team, Here SO i might agree
1:23:05
Speaker 1: slightly Into houston. HERE i mean you could argue maybe
1:23:07
Speaker 1: going first five innings to avoid the fact That houston's
1:23:11
Speaker 1: bullpen is not. Rested But yankees will been not exactly good.
1:23:14
Speaker 1: Either money also appears to be coming in on the,
1:23:16
Speaker 1: over with the total juice less on the nine juice
1:23:19
Speaker 1: to the under seventy percent tickets nine percent of cash
1:23:22
Speaker 1: on the. OVER i can see the arguments for that.
1:23:25
Speaker 1: Too it's kind of like you get too untrustworthy. Pictures
1:23:28
Speaker 1: the bullpens could fail in this game, Potentially so those
1:23:31
Speaker 1: are some ways to look at that game, there just
1:23:34
Speaker 1: for my rooting. INTERESTS i hope The yankees, lose BUT
1:23:37
Speaker 1: i don't know if that's gonna. Happen and Then San Francisco.
1:23:39
Speaker 1: Colorado colorado's just playing out the, stretch but it's probably
1:23:43
Speaker 1: a game That colorado will try to. Win we've seen
1:23:46
Speaker 1: some heat in this in this, series. MAN i think
1:23:50
Speaker 1: there was a brawl either yesterday or the day before.
1:23:53
Speaker 1: That So colorado has showing up with motivation at least
1:23:56
Speaker 1: in this. Game it's a divisional. Series San francisco has
1:23:58
Speaker 1: been hot, recently but they still pretty much know they're
1:24:01
Speaker 1: not gonna make the. PLAYOFFS i, think even THOUGH i
1:24:02
Speaker 1: think they're still maybe trying to fight to make the,
1:24:05
Speaker 1: playoffs they're above five hundred. Again, colorado you know this
1:24:08
Speaker 1: is the type of game they will be focused. On
1:24:09
Speaker 1: though they did just take their one hundredth loss on the,
1:24:12
Speaker 1: season which is real. UGLY i think they're gonna be
1:24:14
Speaker 1: pissed off about. That colorado is the only team that's
1:24:17
Speaker 1: eliminated from the playoffs. Mathematically but you have one of
1:24:20
Speaker 1: your division rivals that you hate right now coming in
1:24:24
Speaker 1: to your. House and you're on the verge of potentially
1:24:25
Speaker 1: getting swept by. THEM i think you're gonna show up
1:24:28
Speaker 1: for that, Series San. FRANCISCO i don't know what they
1:24:30
Speaker 1: have up. Next let me Say San francisco Has Saint
1:24:34
Speaker 1: louis up, next which is not exactly a big, series
1:24:36
Speaker 1: but still you're on the verrgi of sweeping. Them even
1:24:39
Speaker 1: Though colorado fought, you you still might not totally show
1:24:44
Speaker 1: up for a series that you're on the verge of.
1:24:45
Speaker 1: Sweeping but we Know San francisco has the better. Bullpen
1:24:50
Speaker 1: they might actually have the better offense. Too that's just
1:24:52
Speaker 1: how Bad colorado's offense. Is, yes both too bad. Offenses
1:24:57
Speaker 1: San francisco's is slightly. Better San francisco is a huge
1:25:00
Speaker 1: boltpen edge, though and they only use three relief pitchers.
1:25:03
Speaker 1: Yesterday colorado used, four and they used them fairly. Extensively
1:25:07
Speaker 1: so there is definitely a bullpen edge For San francisco.
1:25:10
Speaker 1: Here they do have the better starter on the mound.
1:25:12
Speaker 1: Too With Robbie ray having a good season three point
1:25:15
Speaker 1: one eight E r one point one Six, whip he's
1:25:18
Speaker 1: actually slightly better on the road to three point h two.
1:25:21
Speaker 1: Era he's gonna have to pitch a course, field BUT
1:25:23
Speaker 1: i think he did once this. Year, yeah he. Did
1:25:26
Speaker 1: he actually didn't do well when he pitched a course
1:25:28
Speaker 1: field early this, year so he didn't really adapt that
1:25:30
Speaker 1: well to the, environment threw way too many, pitches only
1:25:33
Speaker 1: lasted four, Innings the fielding was bad behind. Him he
1:25:36
Speaker 1: only gave up two earned runs and two on urn,
1:25:38
Speaker 1: runs but gave up six, hits two, walks had five.
1:25:40
Speaker 1: Strikeouts it was not a great start for, him and
1:25:43
Speaker 1: he's gonna have to do it again. Here man Uh
1:25:45
Speaker 1: San francisco has been good behind him. Recently they won
1:25:48
Speaker 1: five of his last six, starts all In. August but
1:25:50
Speaker 1: he had a four point one WIN era in a
1:25:52
Speaker 1: twenty nine to twelve strikeout walk, Ratio so he wasn't
1:25:55
Speaker 1: exactly at his best in the month Of. August he was,
1:25:58
Speaker 1: mediocre a little bit worse than he has been on the.
1:26:00
Speaker 1: Season colorado does hit him pretty well in thirty eight at,
1:26:03
Speaker 1: bats thirteen to eight strike a walk racio two eighty nine,
1:26:06
Speaker 1: average seven to eighty one oh, ps So ray very
1:26:09
Speaker 1: well could struggle in this, game and he's going up
1:26:11
Speaker 1: Against Herman, marquez who just rejoined The colorado. Rotation his
1:26:16
Speaker 1: numbers are not good, obviously six point one FOUR, era
1:26:19
Speaker 1: one point six to NINE whip this, season worse at,
1:26:22
Speaker 1: HOME i mean course, field not very easy for any
1:26:25
Speaker 1: pitcher to pitch. In really six point three SIX era at.
1:26:28
Speaker 1: Home he was injured for about a, month and he
1:26:31
Speaker 1: came back and didn't do well against The cubs in course.
1:26:33
Speaker 1: Field The cubs lit them. Up cubs were a good,
1:26:36
Speaker 1: offense so that they hadn't been doing well around that,
1:26:38
Speaker 1: time which was last. Week he'd give up eight or
1:26:43
Speaker 1: in runs in that game in four to, third three,
1:26:45
Speaker 1: walks no, strikeouts And marquez is not in good form right.
1:26:48
Speaker 1: Now giants are pretty familiar with. Him fifty nine at.
1:26:51
Speaker 1: Bats he does have a fifteen to two fifteen to
1:26:53
Speaker 1: two strike a walk ratio against, them which is pretty,
1:26:56
Speaker 1: good but he's allowed five on the runs to. THEM
1:26:58
Speaker 1: a two fifty four average't, bad but an eight twenty
1:27:01
Speaker 1: one ohps is pretty, Bad So. Marquez his numbers aren't
1:27:04
Speaker 1: that good here. EITHER i think this game looks like an.
1:27:07
Speaker 1: Over you gotta go over like a high, total. Though
1:27:09
Speaker 1: you gotta worry About San francisco's. Bullpen but if both starters,
1:27:13
Speaker 1: struggle you're gonna get some of the worst like relief
1:27:16
Speaker 1: pitchers in the. Game. Potentially San francisco's actually dropped quite
1:27:20
Speaker 1: a bit on the money Line dewver minus two twenty
1:27:21
Speaker 1: minus one to ninety, six seventy six percent of, tickets
1:27:24
Speaker 1: only sixty five percent of the cash on, them so
1:27:26
Speaker 1: the money kind of coming in against. Them seventy nine
1:27:29
Speaker 1: percent of, tickets ninety eight percent of cash on the over,
1:27:31
Speaker 1: Though SO i think the better way to look at
1:27:33
Speaker 1: this is the. Over LIKE i, said it's already gone
1:27:35
Speaker 1: up from ten and a half juice to the over
1:27:37
Speaker 1: to eleven juice to the. Over if you want to go,
1:27:39
Speaker 1: over you gotta try to get it over, eleven, man
1:27:41
Speaker 1: because all these odd numbers are. Key it breaks the
1:27:43
Speaker 1: five to five. TIE i don't disagree with. THAT i
1:27:46
Speaker 1: do think that's the best way to play that. Game
1:27:48
Speaker 1: let's get to the best bet. HERE i hope it's a,
1:27:50
Speaker 1: winner and Then i'll leave you being only one play.
1:27:54
Speaker 1: TODAY i don't like this board, today, man and it
1:27:56
Speaker 1: is going to be The Toronto Blue jays a half
1:27:59
Speaker 1: a run on the run line in the first. Five
1:28:01
Speaker 1: you do have to lay a little bit of a
1:28:02
Speaker 1: price for, this because they're a pretty heavy favorite minus
1:28:05
Speaker 1: one a. Team But i'm isolating WHERE i Think toronto
1:28:07
Speaker 1: has the best edge in this, game AND i don't
1:28:11
Speaker 1: think that it's with the bullpens. HERE i think it's
1:28:13
Speaker 1: with the starting. Pitching So i'm going With. Toronto and of,
1:28:17
Speaker 1: COURSE i mean It's Shane, Bieber SO i MEAN i
1:28:19
Speaker 1: Think i'll put money on him in some fashion in every,
1:28:22
Speaker 1: game and he's pitched so, far and any think one
1:28:24
Speaker 1: of THEM i got totally screwed with an under THAT
1:28:27
Speaker 1: i think got blown up by the bullpens late in
1:28:30
Speaker 1: the game After bieber did, well AND i think one
1:28:32
Speaker 1: of THEM i did win on like A toronto run
1:28:34
Speaker 1: line or something With bieber pitching The. Beebes this is
1:28:38
Speaker 1: a big game for both. TEAMS i get. It toronto's
1:28:40
Speaker 1: trying to hang on to their, Division cincinnati's trying to
1:28:43
Speaker 1: fight to claw their way back through the wildcard. Race
1:28:46
Speaker 1: here these teams to split the first two games in
1:28:48
Speaker 1: the series as, Well But, toronto in a, way they
1:28:51
Speaker 1: are still the better team. Here they have the better
1:28:53
Speaker 1: starting pitcher on the. Mound they don't have the better
1:28:56
Speaker 1: bullpen right, now even though they've probably been the better
1:28:59
Speaker 1: bullpen at some point points during the, season neither bullpen
1:29:02
Speaker 1: is that trust. Worthy toronto's is actually worse Than cincinnati's
1:29:05
Speaker 1: now in the. Season toronto does have the better. Offense
1:29:08
Speaker 1: that's one of their bigger advantages. Here they're actually second in,
1:29:11
Speaker 1: ops so that's pretty. SOLID i, mean you knew at
1:29:14
Speaker 1: some point their offensive talent was gonna do. Something last.
1:29:17
Speaker 1: Year their offense really Underperformed cincinnati mediocre. Offense they're in
1:29:22
Speaker 1: the middle of the pack, offensively So toronto has a
1:29:24
Speaker 1: pretty big offensive edge as. Well their bullpen's been, struggling
1:29:28
Speaker 1: AND i want to keep their bullpen out of. It
1:29:29
Speaker 1: toronto used a lot of their bullpend yesterday. Too they
1:29:32
Speaker 1: use five relief pitchers, yesterday not a whole lot left
1:29:36
Speaker 1: for their bullpen right. Now very heavy bullpen, usage so
1:29:39
Speaker 1: we'll avoid that part of. It cincinnati fairly heavy on
1:29:42
Speaker 1: their part as well, though so the bullpen situation is
1:29:45
Speaker 1: kind of bad for both. Teams but we're just gonna
1:29:47
Speaker 1: look at the starting pitching. Here we Got Shane bieber.
1:29:50
Speaker 1: Pitching LIKE i, said For, toronto he Had Tommy john.
1:29:53
Speaker 1: SURGERY i think he missed all of last. Year he
1:29:55
Speaker 1: was really good when he was On cleveland and he's
1:29:58
Speaker 1: pretty much picked up right where he left. Off if
1:30:00
Speaker 1: he's basically Like Brandon. Woodriff both guys Had Tommy john
1:30:03
Speaker 1: right around the same, age had really good early parts
1:30:06
Speaker 1: to their, careers came back and started pitching really well.
1:30:09
Speaker 1: Again bieber's got a two point three eighty r and
1:30:12
Speaker 1: point six to two, whip really low. WHIP i, MEAN
1:30:15
Speaker 1: i know he can't really sustain, that but still that's really.
1:30:17
Speaker 1: Good one point five run the road so. FAR i
1:30:20
Speaker 1: know this is a different. Environment he's only made two
1:30:22
Speaker 1: starts so. Far LIKE i, said his one road start
1:30:25
Speaker 1: was dominant Against. Miami but even, SO i, Mean cincinnati
1:30:30
Speaker 1: is a hitter friendly, ballpark so he's gonna have to pitch.
1:30:33
Speaker 1: THERE i think he is used to pitching there, though
1:30:35
Speaker 1: Because cincinnati is the in state rival With, cleveland So
1:30:38
Speaker 1: i'm sure he's pitched. THERE i haven't looked at how
1:30:40
Speaker 1: he actually has pitched in this stadium. BEFORE i suppose
1:30:43
Speaker 1: maybe we. Should it's not gonna change my mind on this.
1:30:46
Speaker 1: Play but let's see last last year he actually made
1:30:49
Speaker 1: a couple of starts before he went. Injured let's see
1:30:51
Speaker 1: he Dominated cincinnati at home in twenty twenty. Three BUT
1:30:54
Speaker 1: i want to see his road starts Against, CINCINNATI i
1:30:56
Speaker 1: guess he didn't have. One let me say. Unfortunate SO
1:31:00
Speaker 1: espn does not let you look at everything as a.
1:31:03
Speaker 1: Whole it only lets you look at so he was At.
1:31:06
Speaker 1: Cincinnati he gave it three on runs in one start against,
1:31:09
Speaker 1: him in five and a third way back In april
1:31:12
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, two and not a whole lot to really
1:31:14
Speaker 1: take away from. That he pitched eight, innings gave it
1:31:17
Speaker 1: three on, runs and had thirteen strikeouts In april of
1:31:20
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one against, them so he had quite a
1:31:22
Speaker 1: good start in that one seven to two, thirds gave
1:31:25
Speaker 1: up two earned, runs eight, Strikeouts so he has actually
1:31:27
Speaker 1: pitched pretty well in this. Ballpark that was In august
1:31:30
Speaker 1: in twenty, twenty he pitched, there and then let's, say
1:31:36
Speaker 1: because again they face each other every, year he had
1:31:37
Speaker 1: an eight, inning two run before so the eight, strikeouts
1:31:40
Speaker 1: no walks In july twenty twenty against. Them so, again
1:31:43
Speaker 1: so basically every one of his starts except the most
1:31:45
Speaker 1: recent one At cincinnati has been quite good with a
1:31:48
Speaker 1: really high strike out rate except his first, one but
1:31:50
Speaker 1: you can give him a pass for his first time
1:31:53
Speaker 1: not doing well against. Him when he was The Cincinnati
1:31:55
Speaker 1: virgin The Great American Ballpark, vergin he went four to,
1:31:58
Speaker 1: third gave it threearned runs twenty, NINETEEN i think is
1:32:01
Speaker 1: when this was In. August five strikeouts to watch twenty. Eighteen,
1:32:04
Speaker 1: excus he's so the previous start THAT i mentioned was twenty.
1:32:06
Speaker 1: Nineteen but, yeah, generally besides his first, start he's been
1:32:10
Speaker 1: really good except his last. Start then he made At cincinnatis.
1:32:13
Speaker 1: Mediocre BUT i Like bieber Here man for all those.
1:32:16
Speaker 1: Reasons and then also again this year he's Been he
1:32:20
Speaker 1: hasn't even walked anybody. Yet he's a fifteen to zero
1:32:23
Speaker 1: strikeout walk racio on eleven and a third. In he's
1:32:25
Speaker 1: along seven, hits two arn. Runs he has a lot
1:32:27
Speaker 1: of two of them, runs so he's got to keep
1:32:29
Speaker 1: that in, check especially in this. Stadium but he's been,
1:32:32
Speaker 1: really really. Good his command has been right. On his
1:32:35
Speaker 1: numbers Against cincinnati are pretty. Good in thirty at, bats
1:32:38
Speaker 1: they only have one extra base. Hit Gavin lux with
1:32:41
Speaker 1: a double nine to two strike out walk, ratio two
1:32:44
Speaker 1: sixty seven average allowed six thirteen, obs so he's got
1:32:47
Speaker 1: good numbers. Here he's going to go up Against Zach
1:32:49
Speaker 1: lttel who is more familiar To toronto because he was
1:32:53
Speaker 1: With Tampa bay up until this. Year lttel's a guy
1:32:57
Speaker 1: he puts up some pretty solid, numbers including his and
1:33:00
Speaker 1: his strikeout walk, ratio but he's also a guy that's
1:33:03
Speaker 1: fairly hit. Able. MAN i think he's a guy who
1:33:05
Speaker 1: isn't as good as his numbers. Look usually three point
1:33:08
Speaker 1: six THREE era and one point one TWO whip that's
1:33:10
Speaker 1: good on the. Season he's good at home three point
1:33:13
Speaker 1: twenty FIVE, era which is surprising Because Tampa bay there
1:33:17
Speaker 1: home stadium is difficult to pitch, in and so Is.
1:33:19
Speaker 1: Cincinnati says he's been With, cincinnati he's been decent three
1:33:22
Speaker 1: point NINETY, ra twenty one and six strike out walk.
1:33:25
Speaker 1: Ratio he's made two starts here and they're both fairly.
1:33:29
Speaker 1: Decent six innings Against. Milwaukee that's a good. Sign but
1:33:32
Speaker 1: his most recent start wasn't quite as good Against Saint
1:33:34
Speaker 1: louis did last seven. Innings so, Yeah i'm not saying
1:33:37
Speaker 1: he's in bad form. Here he's. Not neither pitcher, is,
1:33:40
Speaker 1: obviously But bieber is still in the better form Over. Lttel.
1:33:43
Speaker 1: Here ON, lttel his numbers against The Blue jays are not.
1:33:48
Speaker 1: Good so this is kind of the crux here where
1:33:51
Speaker 1: we have the matchup numbers indicate On bieber on this
1:33:54
Speaker 1: one here he is already the better, pitcher but eighty
1:33:57
Speaker 1: two at bats for lattel Against they have a lot
1:34:00
Speaker 1: of familiarity with, him and they've done a lot of
1:34:02
Speaker 1: damage to. Him nine to five strike out walk racio
1:34:05
Speaker 1: three seventeen batting average allowed in eight to ninety three.
1:34:07
Speaker 1: Ops so he has not done well Against, toronto and
1:34:11
Speaker 1: has he pitched against him this? Year he. Has he
1:34:14
Speaker 1: did okay At, toronto went seven to a, third three
1:34:17
Speaker 1: n runs. Allowed that was a decent start for, him
1:34:19
Speaker 1: but that does Mean toronto has seen him this year
1:34:21
Speaker 1: And cincinnati has not Seen bieber this, year so there's
1:34:25
Speaker 1: more familiarity. There so we are gonna go With. Toronto
1:34:29
Speaker 1: in the first five innings in this, One toronto moved
1:34:33
Speaker 1: way up on the money. Line, MAN i understand the
1:34:35
Speaker 1: cash he's to be coming in against them, now which
1:34:38
Speaker 1: is on the full, game but they moved up for
1:34:40
Speaker 1: minus one thirty five to minus one fifty. SIX i
1:34:42
Speaker 1: don't really think that's a false move when the money
1:34:45
Speaker 1: line moves like that all the way up to that,
1:34:47
Speaker 1: degree although we do see sixty five percent and takes
1:34:49
Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the cash On toronto's their public road,
1:34:53
Speaker 1: favorite WHICH i don't. Love money coming in somewhat towards
1:34:56
Speaker 1: the under as, well and they moved up on the
1:34:58
Speaker 1: juice to the eight and a half on the, old
1:35:00
Speaker 1: but eighty six percent and take a seven to nine
1:35:02
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the, Over so the over
1:35:04
Speaker 1: is public as, well even Though toronto's a public road.
1:35:06
Speaker 1: Favorite this is just the first five inning. PLAY i
1:35:08
Speaker 1: think that's where we get the match up edge. Here
1:35:10
Speaker 1: the money line again did move quite far on, them
1:35:13
Speaker 1: and that's not gonna happen with just the public coming
1:35:16
Speaker 1: in on. Them so the professional money did. That it's
1:35:19
Speaker 1: just a matter of was that a set up just
1:35:21
Speaker 1: to get a better underdog price Of cincinnati OR i
1:35:24
Speaker 1: think more likely we have here as we have professionals
1:35:27
Speaker 1: disagreeing with each. OTHER i think we have some professionals
1:35:30
Speaker 1: that came in and pounded the line up On, toronto
1:35:33
Speaker 1: and then we have other professionals that disagree and are
1:35:35
Speaker 1: taking the what they think is value on The cincinnati.
1:35:38
Speaker 1: Underdog SO i think there's a difference of opinion on this.
1:35:41
Speaker 1: Game in my opinion because there's sometimes there's not a professional,
1:35:45
Speaker 1: side you know WHAT i. Mean the professionals will, disagree
1:35:47
Speaker 1: will disagree with each, other, right but you want to
1:35:49
Speaker 1: kind of find where's the majority of the professional money,
1:35:52
Speaker 1: At like where do more of the professionals line, up
1:35:55
Speaker 1: you know WHAT i. Mean that's gonna do. It that's
1:35:57
Speaker 1: the only, play SO i don't really have to. RecA
1:36:00
Speaker 1: i'll learn it tone On, twitter learn it tone On.
1:36:02
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1:36:05
Speaker 1: there better off dead like and subscribe to the channel
1:36:07
Speaker 1: man on, YouTube give me reviews on, Audio, Spotify, apple,
1:36:12
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1:36:15
Speaker 1: my ukulele project and YouTube you can check that out
1:36:17
Speaker 1: And patreon dot, com slash learn to toad you can
1:36:20
Speaker 1: give me some support. There it's mostly bonus yuke content right.
1:36:24
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1:36:27
Speaker 1: you get a you get prioritize requests at the highest.
1:36:31
Speaker 1: Level that's gonna do. It hopefully my voice starts getting
1:36:34
Speaker 1: a bit better and have a Good. Wednesday man hump.
1:36:37
Speaker 1: Day peace out for, now, Guys thanks for hanging out this.
1:36:39
Speaker 1: Morning