Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 162 - 11/13/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 162 - 11/13/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 162 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
0:37
week. The beat rolls on, the drum
0:40
rolls on. What's that phrase?
0:41
I can't even get it right. But anyway, guys, a lot to get
0:43
to on today's podcast. I typically always say a lot to
0:47
get to, but we really do have a lot to get to.
0:48
I have a 7 pack of sweats for you.
0:51
You know, when you go to the the liquor store, the packy as we
0:54
like to call in New England, the package store and maybe get a
0:56
six pack and then maybe there's like a nip or like maybe some
0:59
like small little, I don't know, fireball little little extra
1:03
there that you want to add your 6 pack.
1:04
That's what we got tonight. So 7 bets overall.
1:07
Excited to break them down with you guys.
1:09
We're going to look at 1 college football game.
1:11
I know there's three tonight, but there's one total here that
1:14
really caught my eye. So I'm hoping we get some points
1:16
in this one. Then right back to the college
1:18
basketball court because we're going to have 3 low bet, obscure
1:23
sharp line moves with three teams that I don't know if
1:26
you've ever bet before, but we're going to play in here
1:28
tonight as well as two bets in the NHL.
1:31
One really good rest first tired.
1:33
Another angle here, a larger favorite.
1:34
Hoping they can come through for us with a big sharp line move
1:37
and then a late night NBA sweat. I'm looking at a total.
1:41
Hoping to get a high scoring game in this one as we've seen
1:43
this total go up with some good indicators here that we could
1:46
have some offense. Overall, A7 pack of sweats, one
1:50
college football, 3 college hoops, 2 NHL, one NBA.
1:54
You guys know the drill. We got 7.
1:55
Let's try to get four or more tonight.
1:58
Now looking back to her last night, unfortunately we've been
2:00
red hot for about a week. Didn't get the brakes last
2:03
night. 2 and 4 -, 2.2 units. Had a couple good hits early
2:07
with Fairfield getting it done there against UNH in college
2:10
hoops and then the Ball State over.
2:12
I'm kicking myself. I should have taken Ball State
2:14
in the points. I took the over, which is which
2:16
is good. We catch that one, but that's
2:18
where our luck pretty much dried up because Toledo over 51 1/2,
2:22
that landed 47, they were on pace and then they completely
2:26
dried up second-half scoring. And then same thing, Western
2:29
Michigan, Bowling Green over 57 1/2, I don't think they scored
2:32
it all there in the fourth quarter.
2:33
So a couple of those came up a little bit short.
2:36
And then the frustrating ones in college hoops, Monmouth, they
2:38
got rolled. Sometimes that happens.
2:40
Sharp move dog to fave on the road.
2:42
But Cal Baptist, Cal Baptist, we get that one.
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We're three and three. We just eat a little bit of
2:47
juice instead. Cal Baptist is pretty much up
2:50
all game. They're up 8 at the half or
2:51
seven at the half. They blow it late.
2:53
They have a chance to win it at the buzzer.
2:55
And was frustrating to me is that these two guys who if you
2:58
watch this game and again, I can't recommend enough ESPN plus
3:01
you can watch all these obscure games, but they were down by
3:04
one. They got a block.
3:06
They had the the last shot of the game.
3:08
They come up and down the court. Two of their best scorers don't
3:11
touch the ball. Instead, their top point guard
3:14
who led the team in points kicks it to a guy out for a three
3:17
pointer, a guy who is a bench player who doesn't have a very
3:20
good free throw percentage. Of course, he misses it when he
3:22
lose the game. So like you're in the bonus, can
3:24
you go to the rim, get fouled, win it on a couple of free
3:26
throws. Anyway, Cal Baptist was
3:28
frustrating as he came up a little bit short.
3:30
So 2 and 4 -, 2.2 units. We're going to see if we can
3:34
start a new winning streak here for today.
3:36
Now before we get to our plays for today, I wanted to make a
3:39
kind of cool announcement. I tweeted this out from the All
3:42
Systems Go Twitter page. If you haven't done it yet and
3:45
you want to support the All Systems Go podcast here, all you
3:49
got to do in terms of the Twitter page is go to at under
3:54
score ASG under score podcast. You can just search All Systems
3:58
Go pod. I always tweet the pod out from
4:00
there. But I've been working with Juice
4:03
Reel, who's one of my favorite sports betting apps and my buddy
4:05
Ricky Gold, who I know very well, who does a great job
4:09
creating and maintaining and growing the Juice Reel app.
4:12
He said, you know what, Josh, I got this thing in Juice Reel
4:14
where basically you can post your bets and then people can
4:17
follow you and you can set a price for, you know, if you want
4:21
to sell your plays. I know it sounds a little bit
4:24
touty, but and the important thing here is if you want to
4:27
support the pod, if you want to track the bets, if you miss a
4:30
pod and you want to get the plays, all the plays from the
4:32
All Systems Go pod are now on the Juice Reel app.
4:35
So all you got to do is click the bottom right button.
4:38
It says social. Once you click social, you can
4:41
search for a public display name.
4:42
The public display name is ASG under score podcast and Ricky
4:47
said, hey, set up set a price here.
4:49
You know, some people are, you know, 100 bucks a week, 200
4:52
button like that's too much. I made it 499 a week.
4:55
So consider this may be a tip or if you want to support the pod,
4:59
if you want to track the bets 499 a week, it's literally $5.
5:02
I mean, actually I went to, it's funny, I love Dunkin' Donuts.
5:06
My, my wife loves Starbucks and she's like, OK, I brought my, my
5:10
dog Meadow, the pup. Usually we go to dunks.
5:13
I get a coffee, I get a, a doughnut and I get her a pop
5:16
cup. My wife said, Hey, can you pick
5:18
up a Starbucks coffee for me? A Starbucks coffee, the Bente
5:21
mocha, yadda, yadda, yadda. I don't even know.
5:23
I'm not, I'm just not a Starbucks guy.
5:25
But it was $7.00 for a coffee. So if you want to support the
5:28
pod and get these plays, you can now get them for 499 a week.
5:32
Literally, you know, 5 bucks here.
5:35
Again, the goal isn't to sell plays to you.
5:37
I think it's more of to support the pod.
5:40
And if you enjoy the pod, you know, everything is free.
5:42
It'll still be free on Spotify and all the different platforms.
5:45
But Ricky really wanted me to kind of show people that you can
5:49
bet on yourself. If you're a good capper and you
5:52
feel like your plays are worth following for other people, you
5:55
can post them. You can let other people follow
5:57
them, and they can pay you to get access to your bets.
6:00
So from now on, you can always get the ASG pod plays on the
6:04
Juice Reel app again, public display name, ASG under score
6:07
podcast. It'll be 499 a week.
6:10
And then also, I tweeted out from the ASG Twitter account,
6:14
but also tweet it from my account.
6:16
There's a link right there if you want to follow and get those
6:18
plays each day. So I just want to mention that
6:20
it's pretty cool. It's a feature from Juice Real
6:22
that maybe you can use to your advantage as well.
6:25
But anyway, guys, with that being said, let's get right back
6:27
to doing what we love to do, monitoring the market, picking
6:31
up on constant context clues, having a sharp contrarian
6:34
philosophy, and trying to pick out some winners.
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So I want to start off with some college football after kind of a
6:40
frustrating night last night. Again, 3 totals, only one of
6:43
them went over, but I'm going to look at a total here and hope
6:46
that this one goes over. Of all three games today, this
6:49
one caught my eye. Eastern Michigan and Ohio now
6:52
big game here in the Mac. These are two of the better
6:54
teams in the Mac Ohio's six and three.
6:56
Eastern Michigan's 5:00 and 4:00.
6:58
Eastern Michigan had two straight losses, just lost to
7:01
Toledo and Akron. OH's 1-2 in a row just blew out
7:04
Kent and Buffalo. Now I did see a line move here
7:07
toward Ohio. They open like -8 they're all
7:09
the way up to -1111 1/2. So you've seen some movement
7:13
here in favor of Ohio. But I also noticed some good
7:16
sharp money on this over. Now what I've seen is this total
7:20
opened around 48 1/2 and it's been bet up all the way now to
7:25
51 1/2. Some books are even creeping up
7:27
like it may get to 52. So open to current.
7:30
There's been nothing but consistent movement on the over
7:33
now the overs getting around 70% of bets, but nearly 80% of
7:37
dollars. So kind of public, but also some
7:40
respected smart money moving that number.
7:42
Now, Eastern Michigan, one thing I want to bank on is they are
7:45
very fast-paced. You probably wouldn't expect
7:47
this, but they're #2 in the entire nation in place per game.
7:52
So if we're going to obviously take an over here, you know, I
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think one of the problems last night with some of those overs
7:57
is, you know, those dogs just didn't put up enough points.
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Central Michigan only scored 10. Western Michigan only scored 13.
8:03
We're going to need a dog to hopefully put up some points on
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their own in Eastern Michigan is second fastest team in the
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country. They're averaging 29 points per
8:11
game, giving up 26 and Ohio can put up points on their side as
8:15
well. They're averaging 27 points per
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game, giving up 21. Now aside from this line move to
8:20
the over pro and Joe Bet split to the over fast-paced lot of
8:24
offense. You know giving up some points
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defensively. There's also a perfect weather
8:29
night. If you look at the forecast here
8:32
in Ohio, it's going to be partly cloudy, about 50°, about five
8:36
mile per hour winds at Peden Stadium.
8:38
I've never heard of that stadium before.
8:40
But anyway, weather should not be a factor at all.
8:43
It's not windy, it's not cold, it's not rainy, None of that
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perfect football weather. And then if you add a little bit
8:48
of an angle here in terms of those matching overs, which
8:50
again, they were one and two yesterday, but let's not let one
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night kind of, you know, take away from the fact that and they
8:56
have been a good bet all year long.
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Mac overs are still even after a one and two night last night,
9:02
they're 21 and 1068% with a 28% ROI.
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So these Mac games have gone over.
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We've seen the total rise. We got a pro and Joe bets split
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to the over. We have a fast-paced Eastern
9:12
Michigan team. We got perfect weather.
9:14
We got a dog who can put up points and a favorite who can
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put up points. So add it all up here, guys.
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Let's see if we can get a little revenge from last night.
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I'm going to go Eastern Michigan, Ohio over 51 1/2.
9:26
Now let's go over to some college basketball.
9:29
I have a early game for you. This is a 5:00 game, which kind
9:33
of creeps up on you. But this is Dartmouth at home
9:36
against Albany and this is a 5:00 game.
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Game three O 655-930-6560. Why is that important?
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Because that means it's an added game, extra game.
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You know, again, the public's, you know, ready for a big
9:48
matching night. There's a lot of NBA which we'll
9:50
get to. There's NHL.
9:51
There's a lot going on. So is the public jazzed for a
9:54
5:00 added extra game between Albany and Dartmouth?
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No, they could care less about this one.
10:00
Yet with those obscure sharp line moves, even though the
10:03
public may not care, wise guys have taken a position if they're
10:06
moving these obscure numbers. So anyway, Dartmouth opened at
10:09
around to pick them. They're about to pick them at
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home. Dartmouth is now all the way up
10:14
to -3 -, 3 1/2, some books even going to four.
10:18
So it's pretty clear here in a low back game that the public
10:21
doesn't care about that wise guys have taken a position on
10:23
Dartmouth. Now this is a pretty good
10:25
schedule spot for Dartmouth, by the way.
10:27
They're two and O and two and O at home.
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This is their third straight home game.
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This is Albany one and one. They're O and one on the road.
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This is their second Rd. game. It's a sandwich game.
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They're on the road at home and now on the road again.
10:39
So kind of a tough schedule spot, but I got a money line
10:43
play here on Dartmouth. I got it at -160 Now I just saw
10:47
him creep up some shops 3 and after four, so it's probably
10:49
closer to like -170 right now, but a big advantage offensively.
10:53
Dartmouth is averaging over 100 points a game versus 74 for
10:57
Albany. Better field goal percentage,
10:59
better rebounding margin. I also did a little bit of
11:01
research. I noticed that this is probably
11:03
why you're seeing the line go so big to to Dartmouth is 2 of the
11:07
better players on Albany are out with injuries.
11:10
So a kid named Marshall in Reddish Reddick reddish.
11:14
Both out for this game. Both.
11:16
I think they're upperclassmen. They've been pretty good
11:19
contributors. Both out for this one for
11:21
Albany, so probably why we're seeing again this game go to
11:24
Dartmouth now. Our friends at Rhythm are
11:26
predicting Dartmouth -2.7, but they have a prediction here on
11:30
the money line of a Dartmouth win 76.2 to 73.5 S added obscure
11:36
game. We got injuries on Albany lines
11:38
going to Dartmouth. We have a Rhythm edge.
11:40
We have a schedule spot, better offense, rebounding, and field
11:43
goal percentage. Sounds like a Dartmouth Big
11:46
Green play to me. So again, I got Dartmouth money
11:49
line -160 again, it's creeping up now.
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You're probably closer to around -170 at this point.
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Next one for you. Another 7:00 or 7:00 game here.
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Wofford and Presbyterian, who's excited for this one?
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Another added game, extra game here, but I really like this
12:07
spot for Wofford. I used to call them Wofford.
12:09
I think they're Wofford. But anyway, game three O
12:13
656-930-6570. Wofford comes in one and one,
12:18
Presbyterian is one and two. Both teams are coming off a
12:21
loss, but we've seen an opener here of Wofford -3 and now
12:25
they're up to 3 1/2 and they're juiced up like they may even go
12:28
to four. So another added extra game,
12:30
obscure game with the line move toward Wofford.
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Now I got Wofford on the money line again.
12:35
I'm willing to pay a little more juice to protect myself from
12:38
Wofford winning by 1-2 or three. I lose a 3 1/2 versus winning a
12:41
money line. You may disagree.
12:43
You may want to save the juice and just lay the 3 1/2.
12:45
The totally up to you, but this is what I'd like to do.
12:47
I just try to grind out short money line favorites.
12:51
But anyway, good angle here with Wofford.
12:53
They're only getting 72% of bets, but 91% of dollars.
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Low bet, higher dollar bet split.
13:01
Now Ken Palm has Wofford winning by 5 S pretty good.
13:04
Ken Palm edges got him ranked way higher 132 in the country
13:08
versus 266. They also have a big advantage
13:12
here, rebounding 47 a game versus 36.
13:15
And our friends at Rhythm, they're even higher on Wofford.
13:18
They have Wofford -6.7 in one system match and another one is
13:22
-4.3. So even if you take the 4.3,
13:25
again, that's some good cushion here for the money line.
13:27
The money line prediction at Rhythm is 76.1 to 69.4, so
13:34
around a six point win there. So add it all up.
13:37
We got a low bet obscure sharp Rd. line move.
13:40
We have an added game extra gameplay.
13:42
We got Ken Palm winning by 5 rhythm winning by 4 or 6 or even
13:46
7. Good bet split.
13:48
I'm going Wofford here guys on the money line.
13:50
I got him at -165 at Bet MGM now next one for you.
13:55
This one is interesting because this is a team that I don't know
13:59
if I've ever remembered betting on or against them before, but
14:03
we have the Texas or sorry, East Texas A&M Lions.
14:07
You guys ever heard of this team before?
14:10
Add a game. Extra game 7:30 PM tonight
14:12
against Southern. Now first thing you notice about
14:15
this one is a move towards Southern on the road.
14:18
Southern by the way, comes in O and two.
14:21
East Texas comes in O and three. So both teams aren't very good
14:24
yet. We see the opener of southern -3
14:27
on the road. Now Southern is -3 1/2 - 4.
14:30
So pretty good movement in favor of Southern.
14:32
Again, added game. Extra game.
14:33
Obscure sharp line move. But here's where it gets
14:36
interesting. Ken Palm has Southern winning by
14:38
6, which is good edge on a a money line if you're money
14:42
lining a -, 3 1/2 - 4. He's got him ranked higher 259
14:45
versus 358. And it's funny.
14:48
Have you guys ever, if you go to the Ken Pom page, like the Ken
14:52
Pom page you're going to use the most is the fan match page
14:55
that's going to give you all the predictions for all the
14:57
different games tonight. But if you just go to the home
14:59
page, it'll give you all the teams ranked.
15:02
So like #1 team in the country, according to Ken Pom would be
15:05
Auburn, Houston #2 Gonzaga 3, Connecticut 4, Duke 5, yadda,
15:09
yadda, yadda. But when I saw East Texas A&M
15:13
Lions at rank 358, I'm like, Jesus, that's got to be low.
15:17
There aren't a lot of, I don't think there's more than like 358
15:20
teams in college hoops. Well, guess what, there's 364.
15:24
So Texas A&M Commerce is the 123456 seventh worst team in all
15:31
of college basketball. The only teams that are worse
15:33
are Arkansas, Pine Bluff, IUND, Stonehill, Maryland, Eastern
15:38
Shore COP, and State. In the worst team is Mississippi
15:40
Valley State. So we're talking about the dregs
15:43
of the dregs with East Tennessee or sorry, East Texas A&M Lions.
15:47
To make it even better, we have a couple good rhythm edges.
15:50
Rhythm has Southern winning by OR has them predicted minus 8.8,
15:55
so Ken Palms got them by 6. Rhythms got them closer to 9.
15:59
Rhythm Money line prediction here is 78.4 to 69.6.
16:03
And if you look at some of these stats, you have Southern better
16:06
scoring 76 a game versus 68, better field goal percentage,
16:09
better rebounding percentage. And this is again, kind of more,
16:13
maybe more of a fate of East Texas than it is a play on
16:16
Southern. But either way, you're giving me
16:18
a good rhythm edge, good Ken Palm edge, good line move.
16:22
I got to go Southern here, guys. I got Southern on the money line
16:25
-165 at Bet MGM. So Dartmouth, Wofford and
16:29
Southern, all money line bets. Let's try to get 2 out of 3.
16:33
Now let's go over to the NHL because I don't want to give up
16:35
on the NHL. Sometimes I get frustrated with
16:37
the NHL and I'm like, oh, I got to take a day off because again,
16:41
you'll have like a really sharp favorite that'll lose out,
16:43
right? And I'm like, Jesus, what's
16:44
going on? But I don't want to give up on
16:45
it because we have some good system matches and hopefully we
16:48
can take advantage of them. So the first one I noticed for
16:51
tonight, Toronto Maple Leafs and the Washington Capitals.
16:54
I'm going Capitals here, guys on the money line.
16:57
I got the Caps at -140 at Ben MGM, but the caps coming in this
17:02
one, they're ten and four. Toronto is 9/6 and two.
17:05
But this game open Washington -125 now they're up to -140 even
17:10
-145 S really good sharp line movement in favor of Washington.
17:14
Now this is also a really good system match favorite versus a
17:18
team on the second leg of a back-to-back because the
17:20
Washington Capitals have not played since the 9th.
17:23
They've been off since Saturday. Toronto's on the second leg of a
17:26
back-to-back. They were at home against Ottawa
17:28
last night. Now they got to travel and play
17:29
Washington. When you're looking at playing a
17:32
favorite against the team on a second leg of a back-to-back,
17:35
that system is 27 and 1171% this year, 8% ROI.
17:40
And if you look since 2021, it's 69 percent, 7% ROI.
17:44
So it's pretty consistently right at where it's been over
17:47
the last few years. So we had a rest first tired.
17:49
We have a line move toward the Caps offensively.
17:53
Caps big advantage here. 4.2 goals a game versus 3.
17:56
Now Austin Matthews don't have to worry about him.
17:59
He's injured so he's not expected to play.
18:01
Goaltending matchup. Not a huge, you know, edge one
18:05
way or the other. Jacob Wall has been decent. 2.27
18:09
goals against, nine O, 5 save percentage.
18:11
Logan Thompson's been pretty decent as well. 255 goals
18:14
against, 9/10 save percentage. But I will put a little stock
18:18
into this home home versus Rd. because Toronto on the year is
18:21
only 2-3 and two on the road. Caps are seven and two at home,
18:25
so we have a fade. Toronto back-to-back.
18:28
You have a rest first. Tired on Washington again.
18:31
Washington's been off since Saturday.
18:33
They just picked up Lars Eller in a trade.
18:34
I don't know if he's going to play tonight or not, but better
18:36
offense, No Austin Matthews good home Rd. splits.
18:40
I'm going Caps here guys. I got Washington at -140 next
18:44
one for you. 9:00 game tonight, Carolina Hurricanes against the
18:49
Utah Hockey Club. It was like I forgot what was
18:52
Utah's name? I think they should be called
18:54
the Yeti, the Utah Yeti. That'll be badass.
18:57
But anyway, Hurricanes and Utah 9:00 tonight, ESPN Plus.
19:01
This is kind of a big number, but I think it's a big number
19:03
for a reason. And then we've seen a really
19:04
sharp line move. Give me Carolina here, guys.
19:07
I got Carolina at -195 it's it's up there.
19:10
And remember, all these games, all these money lines, the
19:13
spreads are always betting to risk, not betting to win.
19:16
So if you're playing hurt Carolina with me -195 tonight,
19:19
you're risking one unit to get a little more than 1/2 unit back.
19:22
You're not risking 1.95 units to win one unit.
19:25
That's when you get in trouble, when you start to bet to win
19:27
versus risk on money line favorites.
19:30
But anyway, I got Keynes -195 they actually opened at like
19:33
-180 -, 185. So you've seen about a 10/15
19:37
cent steam move in favor of Carolina.
19:39
Now Carolina here, couple advantages.
19:42
First one I noticed was goaltending.
19:43
They're expected to start Pierre or Peter Kochekov, who was
19:48
really good young stud goalies. 8 and one 2.45 goals against
19:52
with a nine O2 save percentage and I want to fade.
19:56
Carol Vermil Vermilka. The Melka Vermilka has struggled
20:01
O and three this year. 2.75 goals against only an 899 save
20:06
percentage. A lot of system matches on
20:08
Carolina Rd. Favorite who made the postseason
20:11
the previous year. Those teams are 41.
20:13
And 2463 percent, 4% ROI. Rest of the road favorite at
20:17
least two days between your last game, 64 percent, 6% ROI Rd.
20:22
favored off a win, favored off a win versus opponent.
20:25
Missed the postseason. Those around 62 to 66% as well,
20:29
all matching on Carolina. Offensively, Carolina 4.2 goals
20:33
a game versus 2.7. They're only giving up 2.6
20:36
versus 3.4 for Utah. And special teams power play is
20:41
22% versus 15% in favor of Carolina and a better PK penalty
20:46
kill 83% versus 77%. And oh, by the way, Hurricanes
20:51
have been good on the road, 6 and two on the road.
20:53
So it's a big number. We got system matches.
20:56
We got line movement. Hopefully we got an advantage
20:58
here in net. I got Carolina at -195 at ESPN
21:02
bet. Now the caboose for tonight.
21:05
Bringing up the rear. Let's look at a late night NBA
21:08
game. I'm looking at the Memphis
21:09
Grizzlies in the LA Lakers. Now, this one's interesting for
21:13
a couple reasons #1 if you look at the line movement, it's been
21:16
a little bit toward the Lakers. Lakers open this one around a -,
21:21
6 1/2 point favorite. They've been bet up to around -7
21:25
but I'm going to focus on the total here because the total
21:27
really popped to me. I think there's a lot of reasons
21:29
to root for points tonight. This total open at 2:31.
21:33
We've now seen it get bet up to 232.
21:36
You might be able to shop around and find a 231 1/2, but there's
21:40
a lot of 230 twos as well. I even saw one book at 232 now,
21:44
so again, shop around. If you can find over 231 1/2,
21:47
that's obviously your best number, but let's just call it a
21:50
3rd 2:32 because that's probably the most widely available.
21:53
The first thing I notice about this one is a really good bet
21:57
split. The over is only getting 58%
21:59
bets but 78% of dollars. So again, I think the public
22:03
says, OK, we got John Morant, we got, you know, LeBron, you know
22:07
this probably high scoring, but 232 is a little bit high.
22:10
Maybe they're a little bit nervous to play that over yet
22:14
only 58% bets, but nearly 80% dollars and this line has ticked
22:18
up. So pretty good bets for here.
22:20
It's not like the over is getting 80%.
22:22
The public's relatively split. You also look at the over refs
22:25
for tonight, all three refs. I've been pretty good to the
22:28
over historically, Scott Twardowski, Josh Tiven, Jason
22:31
Goldenberg between, let's see, 51 and 55% to the over.
22:37
So let's get some fouls, let's blow the whistle, let's get guys
22:40
to the line, let's make our free throws.
22:42
The other angle I like with this over is that both teams are
22:45
really rested. Both teams have not played since
22:48
the 10th of November. That was back on Sunday, so
22:51
they've had a few days off here. So hopefully you're rested,
22:53
ready to go now. These teams played each other
22:56
for the first time in the year. They've only played one game
22:58
head to head. It was back about a week ago,
23:01
but the Grizzlies won 1:31 to 1:14.
23:04
So this matchup produced a lot of points.
23:07
And if you look at some angles here, I like to go to ESPN
23:11
Hollinger, you can just Google it.
23:13
But it's kind of like the Ken Palm, not predictions, but good
23:15
data analytics. Memphis is number one in terms
23:18
of pace this year. They're the fastest paced team
23:21
in the NBA. Fast pace is good for an over.
23:24
More possessions, more opportunities to score.
23:26
Lakers, even though they're older, or at least you think
23:28
with LeBron, they're #11 in terms of pace.
23:31
So both fast-paced teams good for an over.
23:34
Both really good offensive efficiency.
23:36
Both are top 10. Memphis is number 9.
23:38
Lakers are #7 so if we got good offense and bad defense, Lakers
23:43
are only #24 defensive efficiency.
23:46
By the way, rhythm. I saw a prediction here of
23:48
232.5, so if you can get a 231 1/2, boom, that's going to be
23:53
your best number. If not, I'll go 232, but I'm
23:56
rooting for another high scoring game.
23:58
Let's try to get both teams, you know, close to close to 120
24:02
points each. How about that?
24:04
And this is a ESPN game, 10:00 tonight, so let's get some
24:07
points here. So there you have it guys.
24:09
Grizzlies, Lakers over Hurricanes, Capitals, Southern
24:13
Wofford, Dartmouth, Eastern Michigan, Ohio over.
24:17
Those are the plays I will be sweating tonight.
24:19
You're welcome to join me. You're welcome to tail, you're
24:21
welcome to fade. You're welcome to pick and
24:23
choose. But that is what I will be
24:24
sweating tonight. Which again, you can find all
24:27
these plays now moving forward on the Juice Reel app under the
24:30
ASG under score podcast public display name.
24:33
But that about does it, guys. Another pod here in the books.
24:35
This is part of the pod where we wrap things up.
24:38
And I start by first buttering you up, saying thank you so much
24:41
for taking the time out of your day to pull up a chair to the
24:43
virtual bar to listen to some sharp betting breakdowns.
24:47
But now, once I kind of grease you up, now I'm going to ask you
24:49
a favor. Could you please help me grow
24:51
this podcast by doing one very simple, easy thing?
24:55
Could you give this pod a five star review on Spotify or
24:58
iTunes? Simple, easy, quick, relatively
25:01
painless, I would say. But getting those five star
25:03
reviews may not seem that important to you, but they're
25:05
important to me because the more we get, the more we rise up the
25:08
charts, the more we grow the pod, the more listens, the more
25:11
eyeballs and ears we get. So it's just an easy way to
25:14
continue to grow the pod. And if you enjoy the pod, boom,
25:17
that's one easy thing you can do to help me grow the podcast.
25:21
Secondly, if you enjoy this style of bedding, again, there's
25:24
different ways to skin a cat. I learned, I don't know, 12
25:28
years ago. It's been a while, No even
25:30
longer than that. Jesus, like 15 years ago.
25:33
The data-driven model is what speaks to me.
25:35
And I've seen the the fruits of the labor.
25:37
Will you become a millionaire overnight?
25:39
No, sports betting is difficult, but it teaches you a way to
25:42
grind your way to profitability and hopefully turn in a hobby
25:45
into an investment. So if this style of betting,
25:48
maybe you've helped you kind of learn a different way to
25:51
approach betting and now you're very interested in looking at
25:54
line movement, bet splits, system matches, dog to fave line
25:59
moves, money lining, short favorites, all the little things
26:01
that we look at flat bedding. Of course, you notice there's no
26:05
mention of the P word parlays because they're hand out to the
26:07
books. But anyway, you enjoy the pod.
26:10
You want to learn more about data-driven betting or you want
26:12
to just make money, Let me know you appreciate the hard work
26:14
that I put in grinding in the arena each day producing this
26:17
pod for free. Then guess what?
26:19
You can go buy my book. Just go to Amazon.com and type
26:22
in the everything Guide to Sports betting.
26:25
Pick up a copy for you or a friend.
26:26
It's got everything I've learned in the industry, whether it's
26:29
looking at line movement, learning how to read line
26:32
movement, looking how to go contrarian, how to place a bet
26:35
in person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
26:38
a bankroll management plan, chapters on all the major
26:40
sports. It's all included in the
26:42
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
26:43
So buy copy. Holidays are coming up here.
26:46
If you need a stocking stuffer for your uncle or your dad or
26:50
your daughter, your wife, your stepson.
26:52
I don't know, whoever may be a colleague you work with, maybe
26:54
someone in a newly legalized state, maybe your uncle who
26:57
lives in Missouri who's about to legalize betting, wherever it
27:02
may be. Again, you can pick it up on on
27:04
Amazon. And if you want to bring it to
27:06
the sports book, I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer
27:08
and we'll sweat some sharp plays together next.
27:11
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or
27:14
Rhythm yet? Well, if you haven't, now's the
27:17
time to do it. We got all the different sports
27:18
going on right now. Juice Reel is fantastic for
27:21
their Robo Jackson best bet picks that come out each day.
27:25
Again, I mentioned today that you can now follow the ASG plays
27:28
from the social tab. If you want to look at arbitrage
27:31
opportunities, look at sharp mush indicators, get actual bets
27:34
and dollars from people. Have a juice Reel app on each on
27:38
each game. Make sure you sync up your
27:39
sports books as well. But all those great features are
27:42
available with Juice Reel and Rhythm of course does a
27:45
fantastic job powering this pod. Rhythm is the best I would argue
27:50
for AI backed models and predictions for both game bets
27:53
and player props. So please go download both and
27:56
do it in a specific way. Go to the custom links that are
27:59
located in the bio description of this podcast.
28:01
So go to the podcast description like today's.
28:05
It'll say something like an episode.
28:07
What are we at 162? Josh dishes out a 7 pack of
28:10
sweats for for Wednesday. OK, scroll scroll below that.
28:13
Go go down a little bit. There should be a link for
28:15
rhythm and a link for juice rail.
28:17
It's important you click those links so that they know that I
28:19
sent you because I want them to know I'm doing my part to help
28:22
help both these great apps to continue to grow.
28:26
But that about does it, everybody.
28:27
Again, another pot in the books. But as always, I'm going to
28:30
leave you with two things. One, whether I see you at the
28:32
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
28:35
of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut,
28:38
at the Encore in Boston or Plainridge Park Casino or MGM
28:41
Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
28:43
Massachusetts. Or out in the desert where the
28:45
true grinders get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
28:47
number runners. Where the lowest juice possible
28:49
is found at the South Point. Or Sweat and sharp contrarian
28:52
plays, jumping in the stadium swim pool when they cash a big
28:55
ticket at Circa, wherever it may be.
28:58
You can show me a couple tickets.
28:59
Fairfield, the ball stayed over, But Cal Baptist, man, I still
29:03
can't get over that. That would have turned A2 and
29:05
four to a three and 3:00 and basically broke even.
29:07
But hey, sometimes it happens in sports.
29:10
You get a great backdoor cover. Sometimes you get a bad beat.
29:13
But I know one thing, guys, if we can continue to stick to the
29:16
model, not get too high, not get too low, stay consistent.
29:20
If we can bet with our head and not our heart.
29:21
If we can learn to read the market and pick up on the clues
29:24
that the market is telling us, if we can bet against the public
29:27
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get
29:31
some closing line value. If we can do that long term, I'm
29:34
confident we're going to be successful sports vetters.
29:36
So have a fantastic Wednesday night, everybody.
29:39
Again, a lot of sweats here for tonight.
29:41
Let's see if we can find a way to get four or maybe even five
29:44
of these. I'll be the goal.
29:45
But as always, let's look to hopefully cash some tickets
29:48
because a wise man once said cashing tickets is what it's all
29:51
about. I would agree with him
29:52
wholeheartedly, but have a great Wednesday and everybody, we'll
29:55
be back at it tomorrow on a big Thirsty Thursday.
29:58
What do you guys think? I'm already looking at this
30:01
game. Washington, Philly, Philly's
30:03
around a 3 1/2 point favorite totals around 48 1/2.
30:06
I'll give you some thoughts on that one tomorrow.
30:08
Maybe we'll have a player prompt, but I'll see you
30:10
tomorrow for episode 163 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
30:14
podcast powered by Rhythm. Have a great night, everybody.
30:18
Good luck.