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Which workers will AI hurt the most? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada,
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Speaker 1: and Mark VANDETI.
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Speaker 2: Chuck, Mark and Tucker with you here.
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Speaker 3: And market's fairly quiet today, actually very quiet today, not
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Speaker 3: much movement at all. The DOAO is off ninety points
1:19
Speaker 3: right now, less than a quarter percent. The SP five
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Speaker 3: hundred is up one point, not one percent, but one point.
1:26
Speaker 3: The Nasdaq is up twenty four points, about an eighth
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Speaker 3: of a percent. So major US stock indices not moving
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Speaker 3: a ton. Yesterday we had a very modest down day,
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Speaker 3: stocks down anywhere from about three quarters to one percent,
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Speaker 3: depending on the index you we're looking at this after
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Speaker 3: the Trump administration sent out letters to fourteen different countries Japan, Korea,
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Speaker 3: South Africa, Kazakhstan, Laois, Malaysia, miandmar Tunisia, Bosnia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia,
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Speaker 3: and Thailand, indicating that they would begin paying teriff rates
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Speaker 3: of between twenty five and forty percent.
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Speaker 2: As of August first.
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Speaker 3: Just a few minutes ago, the President sent out a
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Speaker 3: post on truth social that I will now quote for
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Speaker 3: you as per letters sent to various countries yesterday, in
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Speaker 3: addition to letters that will be sent today, tomorrow, and
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Speaker 3: for the next short period of time. So market does
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Speaker 3: sound like more are coming. Tariffs will start being paid
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Speaker 3: on August first, twenty twenty five. There has been no
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Speaker 3: change to this date, and there will be no change.
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Speaker 3: In other words, all money will be duehen payable starting
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Speaker 3: August first, twenty twenty five. No extensions will be granted.
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Speaker 3: Thank you for your attention to this matter. Yesterday afternoon,
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Speaker 3: around six pm, the President had said in a spoken
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Speaker 3: interview that that date was you know, potentially movable and
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Speaker 3: not final. But it does sound like this is a
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Speaker 3: more final thing here. But market's not really moving on this.
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Speaker 3: And this gets it two things which are a to
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Speaker 3: this point, even with you know, previous tariff announcements, they
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Speaker 3: have oftentimes represented the peak of the tariff rate and
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Speaker 3: then they have subsequently come down or been walked back.
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Speaker 3: The second piece is that even with the tariffs that
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Speaker 3: have been put in place to this point, the economic
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Speaker 3: data has not shifted a ton yet. And so I
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Speaker 3: think markets are also kind of taking away and see
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Speaker 3: approach where they're starting to focus more on the economic
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Speaker 3: data and on earnings as opposed to reacting so heavily
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Speaker 3: to each announcement, just because quite honestly, reacting to each
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Speaker 3: announcement has not really been a worthwhile strategy for this year.
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Speaker 2: By and large, No.
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Speaker 4: I think that's the logical explanation of markets reaction. They're
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Speaker 4: not taking these threats seriously because every threat that has
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Speaker 4: been made since Liberation Day and before has been walked back,
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Speaker 4: so the economic damage could be limited. It engenders, It
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Speaker 4: inserts uncertainty into agents thinking. You talked in the last
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Speaker 4: hour eloquently about someone you know who's been forced to
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Speaker 4: rethink processes right, and effectively everything's up in the air.
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Speaker 4: I try to liken it to because I can't relate
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Speaker 4: to purchasing managers being vexed by this. I tried to
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Speaker 4: relate it to the government changing the marginal tax rate
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Speaker 4: every month and then dinging you if you didn't withhold enough,
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Speaker 4: or to your locality changing the speed limit once a week.
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Speaker 4: You wouldn't know how fast to drive, or in the
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Speaker 4: previous analogy, how much to have withheld from your paycheck.
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Speaker 4: At some point, either people are going to get out
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Speaker 4: of the business that they're in because they can't profitably
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Speaker 4: run it if everything's changing all the time, or they're
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Speaker 4: just going to ignore it and accept increased earnings volatility.
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Speaker 4: And this is I think the key point for equity markets,
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Speaker 4: earnings will be more volatile that you translated into more
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Speaker 4: volatile stock prices. More volatile stock prices have a lower
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Speaker 4: average average. By that, I mean change day over day
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Speaker 4: or month over month, So it's probably not good for
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Speaker 4: capital markets, Chuck, and the returns investors are expecting to
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Speaker 4: meet whatever their goals happened to be.
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Speaker 3: In addition to what we're seeing in equity markets, day
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Speaker 3: bonds continuing their recent selloff from the last week or so,
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Speaker 3: Tenure treasury back up above four point four percent sent
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Speaker 3: today to four point four to one nine, up two
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Speaker 3: point four basis points.
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Speaker 2: Oil hanging out in the.
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Speaker 3: High sixty still up fourteen cents a barrel on West
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Speaker 3: Texas Intermediate to sixty eight oh seven. The TRIPAA national
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Speaker 3: average for gas prices also moving up six tens of
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Speaker 3: aercent to three fourteen and nine tenths, so kind of
5:17
Speaker 3: back into that three ten to three twenty range after
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Speaker 3: the brief period above it following the conflict between.
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Speaker 2: Israel and Iran.
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Speaker 3: And then we've got gold today down thirty seven seventy
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Speaker 3: announced to thirty three oh five and ten cents, and
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Speaker 3: so gold another one that's just kind of been hanging out.
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Speaker 3: Like if you look at where gold prices have been,
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Speaker 3: it feels an awful lot like what we've been seeing
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Speaker 3: from oil, where it's just kind of coiling up here
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Speaker 3: right now, and there's going to be a move at
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Speaker 3: some point. Which direction, I don't know, but gold's basically
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Speaker 3: been sitting between thirty two hundred and thirty four hundred
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Speaker 3: for the last two months now, just kind of in
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Speaker 3: a pretty narrow like five to six percent trading range,
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Speaker 3: and you get the sense there's another coming in the
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Speaker 3: second half of the year because gold doesn't usually just
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Speaker 3: sit still for very long. It tends to move, oftentimes
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Speaker 3: fairly explosively in one direction or another. But it's been
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Speaker 3: pretty calm for the last couple of weeks after running
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Speaker 3: up significantly in the first few months of the year.
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Speaker 3: I want to talk about this piece from CNBC. Let's
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Speaker 3: Tayle the Big Beautiful Bill may help some seniors on
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Speaker 3: Social Security, but it does not eliminate taxes on benefits.
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Speaker 3: And basically the big thing is that because of the
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Speaker 3: way that rules are in place around how reconciliation bills
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Speaker 3: are allowed to be passed, one of which is pretty
6:40
Speaker 3: much don't touch social Security. You're not allowed to touch
6:43
Speaker 3: social Security through a reconciliation bill. The bill that passed
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Speaker 3: last week cannot actually just go and say, hey, we're
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Speaker 3: removing all taxes on Social Security benefits. So instead the
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Speaker 3: workaround is that there is an additional deduction four senior
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Speaker 3: citizens of up to six thousand dollars for people aged
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Speaker 3: sixty five and over. So this is also where things
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Speaker 3: start to get a little more complicated, because it's not
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Speaker 3: just a straight six thousand dollars benefit. Taxpayers with up
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Speaker 3: to seventy five thousand in modified adjusted gross income or
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Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty thousand if filing jointly receive the
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Speaker 3: full deduction. But then above that it starts to phase out.
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Speaker 3: And so there is a window in there where it
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Speaker 3: can effectively you know, you could say it's reducing your
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Speaker 3: Social Security tax to zero. It's really just you know,
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Speaker 3: reducing more income tax payments down. You know, whether it's
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Speaker 3: from Social Security or from other earned income, it doesn't
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Speaker 3: really matter. You don't have to have Social Security income
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Speaker 3: in order to claim this. But it's something where basically
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Speaker 3: the estimates, and this is according to the Urbans Brooking
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Speaker 3: Tax Policy Center says the people that are going to
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Speaker 3: benefit from this, They generally have between fifty and two
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Speaker 3: hundred thousand dollars in annual income. Below that you're typically
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Speaker 3: not paying tax on Social Security anyways, and above that
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Speaker 3: you would be hit by the phase outs.
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Speaker 2: Your thoughts mark.
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Speaker 4: My thoughts on all of these handouts to placate specific
8:20
Speaker 4: interest groups, and I don't mean to diminish seniors as
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Speaker 4: an interest group. If I were collecting Social Security, and
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Speaker 4: someday hopefully I'll get there, I would want to pay
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Speaker 4: fewer taxes on it too.
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Speaker 2: I get that.
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Speaker 4: I just wouldn't expect much in terms of a macroeconomic bang.
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Speaker 4: By that, I mean an increase to consumption certainly, not
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Speaker 4: an increase in the trend rate of growth is Some
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Speaker 4: of the proponents of these changes are claiming my whole
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Speaker 4: for most of my life, and I'm in my early fifties,
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Speaker 4: so for most of my life. The tax code was
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Speaker 4: made simpler starting in nineteen eighty six. Flatter, simpler, close
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Speaker 4: the loopholes, make it easier for people to comply, reduce
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Speaker 4: the gimmicks and handouts. They just convolute things and make
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Speaker 4: more work for accountants. No disrespect to accountants.
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Speaker 2: You can disrespect the accountants.
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Speaker 4: But what they do, okay, Chuck, thank you. What they
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Speaker 4: do is what an economist would call rent seeking. They're
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Speaker 4: not adding to the pie, they're not growing it. And
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Speaker 4: a lot of us rent seek. And that's two words.
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Speaker 4: Rent seeking. I don't mean rent is in the rent
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Speaker 4: you pay, although it's derived from the way that term
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Speaker 4: used to be used. I mean it encourages people to
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Speaker 4: lobby or take action or position themselves to get a
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Speaker 4: bigger slice of a static or even shrinking pie, rather
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Speaker 4: than undertake activity that grows the pie. My whole life,
9:40
Speaker 4: politicians really in both parties talked about ways to grow
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Speaker 4: the pie. It's sad to me that we've abandoned that
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Speaker 4: growth mentality where and both parties have abandoned it. They
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Speaker 4: want to close us off to the world. Just a
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Speaker 4: question of how to implement tariffs and how high they'll be.
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Speaker 4: I think we'd be in the same tariff situation, maybe
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Speaker 4: with a little less drama if we had a Democrat president.
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Speaker 4: I think this out of think it matters who's running things, Chuck.
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Speaker 4: We've shifted from a growth to a bunker mentality. That
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Speaker 4: to me is sad. It means slower growth and by
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Speaker 4: that I mean in the last century growth growth about
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Speaker 4: three percent. In this century, I'm talking real GDP, not
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Speaker 4: per head, but just GDP, and reale means after inflation.
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Speaker 4: This century growth has grown two percent for a lot
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Speaker 4: of different reasons. But if you don't think that matters,
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Speaker 4: let this soak in. We'd be forty percent richer had
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Speaker 4: we grown at the pace of the last century. It's
10:30
Speaker 4: nobody's fault. It's just the way certain things have fallen out.
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Speaker 4: Productivity slowed, been hit by a couple of big recessions.
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Speaker 4: But the compounding power of economic growth, even small differences,
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Speaker 4: is dramatic over longer periods of time. So it will
10:43
Speaker 4: be a little bit poorer than we otherwise would have
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Speaker 4: been in the long runs as a result of all
10:47
Speaker 4: these distortions trade and tax distortions that we're imposing on
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Speaker 4: the economy.
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Speaker 2: Yeah.
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Speaker 3: The piece that is interesting here is you look at
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Speaker 3: the twenty seventeen Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and the
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Speaker 3: big thing that that did was it simplified and streamed
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Speaker 3: on the tax code for.
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Speaker 2: A ton of fops.
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Speaker 3: That's right, it was a huge simplification of the tax code.
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Speaker 3: The interesting thing is that this bill, again I'm I'm
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Speaker 3: not passing like a judgment on whether the overall thing
11:16
Speaker 3: is good, bad, or ugly. But this bill is a
11:19
Speaker 3: significant complication of the tax code. I mean the things
11:22
Speaker 3: that are going in. So you get this six thousand
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Speaker 3: dollars extra deduction if you are over age sixty five,
11:28
Speaker 3: but that's only available for four years twenty twenty five
11:31
Speaker 3: through twenty eight. Will they extend it, Probably because generally
11:34
Speaker 3: that's how things go, the salt deduction goes up. That's
11:38
Speaker 3: not really a complication, it's just a changing of it.
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Speaker 3: So I guess that's not a thing. Here's another one
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Speaker 3: that I thought was just interesting, like interesting, is basically
11:47
Speaker 3: again something that is going to result in, you know,
11:49
Speaker 3: CPA is having to do more work. It limits the
11:52
Speaker 3: value of itemized deductions to thirty five cents on the
11:55
Speaker 3: dollar for taxpayers in the top brackets. So the top
11:57
Speaker 3: tax bracket's thirty seven percent. But if you itemizing deductions,
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Speaker 3: you're itemizing only gets you a thirty five percent deduction,
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Speaker 3: not thirty seven Okay, So like it's basically getting like
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Speaker 3: a ninety three percent itemization.
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Speaker 4: Chuck, can I pass judgment on it? I know you
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Speaker 4: you you're more reserved than I am. Sure it's stupid.
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Speaker 4: We shouldn't be doing it. We should be, as you said,
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Speaker 4: simplifying the code, or maybe as I said, and I'm
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Speaker 4: putting it in your mouth, but simplifying the code, reducing
12:28
Speaker 4: costs of compliance. That's how you change the trend in
12:31
Speaker 4: economic growth.
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Speaker 3: Other things in here and again like it just opens
12:34
Speaker 3: up opportunities for you know, abuse, twenty five thousand dollars
12:38
Speaker 3: in tip income is deductible for individuals and traditionally and
12:41
Speaker 3: customarily tipped industries. But the deduction then phases out at
12:45
Speaker 3: a ten percent rate when AGI exceeds one hundred and
12:47
Speaker 3: fifty thousand dollars.
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Speaker 4: Oh, well, that clears it up.
12:52
Speaker 3: You know, temporarily making auto loan interest deductible for vehicles
12:57
Speaker 3: with final assembly in the US for taxiers to twenty
13:00
Speaker 3: through twenty eight. So we're gonna have people policing whether
13:03
Speaker 3: the car was made enough in the US now to
13:06
Speaker 3: qualify for the deduction. Like, this is the stuff that like,
13:10
Speaker 3: technically it creates work, but is it useful work.
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Speaker 4: It's not trend changing work. It's rent seeking. It doesn't
13:17
Speaker 4: induce a generative behavior. It induces people to position to
13:22
Speaker 4: benefit from policy, right.
13:25
Speaker 3: The one I always like to go back to is
13:26
Speaker 3: in theory. Look, you could have everyone employed if you
13:29
Speaker 3: paid people to dig holes. If half the people dig
13:31
Speaker 3: holes all day and half the people filled them in,
13:34
Speaker 3: does it produce anything useful? Not really, And I'm not
13:37
Speaker 3: saying that there's like not something that's potentially useful here.
13:42
Speaker 3: And to a certain extent, I even look like the
13:44
Speaker 3: auto loan thing was kind of interesting to me on
13:46
Speaker 3: one level because Mark, were you a fan of the.
13:49
Speaker 2: Cash for conquers plan?
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Speaker 4: Hated it?
13:51
Speaker 2: Hated it?
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Speaker 4: So I we talking about that on the other side
13:55
Speaker 4: because I don't want to just leave it at that
13:56
Speaker 4: and without an explanation.
13:58
Speaker 2: But okay, they're a bigger issue. But okay, let's take
14:01
Speaker 2: a quick break.
14:01
Speaker 3: When we come back, we've got talker, We've got trivia, right, yeah, okay,
14:06
Speaker 3: let's do some trivia and then we're talking about loans
14:08
Speaker 3: for clunkers after this.
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14:49
Speaker 2: All right.
14:50
Speaker 5: Time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange. And yesterday
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Speaker 5: it was announced that Knagra Brands sold Chef boy rdta
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Speaker 5: hometown food Company for six one hundred million dollars. Chef
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Speaker 5: Boyard was created by chef and restaurant owner Hector Borard
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Speaker 5: at his restaurant in nineteen twenty eight. So trivia question today,
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Speaker 5: what city was Chef Boyard founded in? Once again, what
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Speaker 5: city was Chef boyar D founded in? Be the fifth
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15:37
Speaker 2: Mark segment.
15:39
Speaker 3: We were talking about the provision in the new tax
15:43
Speaker 3: bill that makes autolone interest deductible if you're itemizing up
15:48
Speaker 3: to ten thousand dollars a year on vehicles made in
15:51
Speaker 3: the United States.
15:53
Speaker 2: And I mentioned, just off handling, did you like cash
15:54
Speaker 2: for Congress? And you said no?
15:56
Speaker 3: And I want to dig in on that for a second,
15:57
Speaker 3: because I want to get to you know again, just
16:00
Speaker 3: like thoughts onlike.
16:02
Speaker 2: When we talk about making yes.
16:04
Speaker 1: Yes.
16:05
Speaker 3: You and I talked back when the Inflation Reduction Act passed,
16:08
Speaker 3: and we had many conversations on the show where we said, look, ultimately,
16:14
Speaker 3: if you want to build electric vehicles, that's fine. Do
16:18
Speaker 3: we want the government subsidizing seventy five hundred dollars per vehicle?
16:22
Speaker 3: Is this a need given the limited fiscal resources that
16:25
Speaker 3: we have. And we ultimately said no, just because of
16:29
Speaker 3: a multitude of different reasons. There could be better technologies
16:32
Speaker 3: that maybe we're preempting. There could be other things we
16:35
Speaker 3: could spend that money on, lots of different reasons. We
16:37
Speaker 3: said no, we don't like that ev credit there because
16:42
Speaker 3: it didn't make sense in the context of the overall
16:45
Speaker 3: economic approach.
16:47
Speaker 2: Cash for clunkers. Talk to me about why you didn't.
16:49
Speaker 4: Like it's not worth getting off on too much of
16:51
Speaker 4: a tangent about that. If you brought up a more
16:53
Speaker 4: interesting question. But we destroyed a lot of wealth. What
16:56
Speaker 4: was it a million cars or something that we just
16:58
Speaker 4: shirk off the streets that pushed the price of used
17:01
Speaker 4: cars was one of the arguments at the time, and
17:03
Speaker 4: there was some evidence for that. It was not that
17:07
Speaker 4: it was a second or third best way to your
17:09
Speaker 4: to the point you just made of actually helping the environment.
17:13
Speaker 4: And I'll segue I don't want to get sidetracked on
17:16
Speaker 4: policy from twenty years ago, which you'll.
17:17
Speaker 2: Know it's fine, never again, but oh, let's do that.
17:20
Speaker 4: It does relate to the to recent Green New Deal
17:27
Speaker 4: type policies, which are also second best. From an economist
17:30
Speaker 4: I think point of view, they'd say, just tax carbon.
17:33
Speaker 4: If you make gas more expensive, people will substitute away,
17:37
Speaker 4: choosing other technologies based on their own preferences. Don't put
17:40
Speaker 4: all your eggs in the EV basket. Look at what's
17:43
Speaker 4: happening to the EV basket. It's it's now all freed
17:47
Speaker 4: and is arguably not where you want to be. If
17:49
Speaker 4: you invested a lot of money in a charger or something,
17:53
Speaker 4: or had plans to those plans, hopes for that have
17:57
Speaker 4: been dashed. So if the if the political climate could change,
18:02
Speaker 4: and it effectively nullifies all the investments that were made
18:06
Speaker 4: over the past few years, that was money wasted. So
18:10
Speaker 4: there are a first best the larger point here, I
18:12
Speaker 4: don't want to get bogged down in the specifics. There's
18:15
Speaker 4: a larger point, which is there are first and second
18:17
Speaker 4: best solutions to problems typically, and you always have to ask,
18:21
Speaker 4: is this the best, most efficient or least cost in
18:24
Speaker 4: exchange for your in a bang for your buck sense
18:27
Speaker 4: way to achieve whatever it is you're trying to achieve.
18:31
Speaker 3: The other piece is, Okay, let's say that you've got
18:34
Speaker 3: this thing in place now where you can deduct you know,
18:36
Speaker 3: some interest on your car loan.
18:39
Speaker 2: If you buy an.
18:39
Speaker 3: American made car now, Mark, does that make it cheaper
18:43
Speaker 3: to build a car in the US.
18:45
Speaker 4: Does increasing the demand for American made cars?
18:48
Speaker 2: Yes?
18:48
Speaker 4: And I sound like I sound like they're sarcasm, but
18:51
Speaker 4: I'm thinking out loud here. No, I think all else equal.
18:53
Speaker 4: If you're increasing the demand for something without taking measures
18:57
Speaker 4: to expand the supply of it, the price should go up.
19:00
Speaker 4: And your point is it may make cars on the
19:02
Speaker 4: margin less not more affordable.
19:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of have.
19:07
Speaker 3: I'm seeing I'm seeing signs of the American healthcare and
19:10
Speaker 3: education systems now in the auto you know industry.
19:13
Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, we're gonna do that. Not quite.
19:16
Speaker 3: It's it's different based on you know, how they work,
19:18
Speaker 3: and there's obviously, you know, big differences in the specifics
19:22
Speaker 3: of the industries. But I just I don't love the
19:26
Speaker 3: idea that, hey, let's just throw money at it and
19:28
Speaker 3: it'll make it more affordable. No, that's not usually how
19:30
Speaker 3: it actually works. Quick Break here, Trivia Answer and Wall
19:34
Speaker 3: Street Watch next.
19:40
Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day.
19:44
Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:50
Speaker 1: Time now for Wall Street Watch. A complete look at
19:54
Speaker 1: what's moving markets so far today right here on the
19:57
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:00
Speaker 5: Following Monday's modest selloff, Marcus today are now in slightly
20:04
Speaker 5: negative territory. Yesterday, President Trump sent letters to several nations
20:08
Speaker 5: outlining terror freights they would pay if trade deals were
20:11
Speaker 5: not agreed upon, and extended the deadline from July ninth
20:15
Speaker 5: to August first. This morning, President Trump posted that no
20:19
Speaker 5: extensions will be given to that August first deadline. Right now,
20:24
Speaker 5: DAW is off by three tenths of one percent, or
20:26
Speaker 5: one hundred and forty one points, SMP five hundred is
20:30
Speaker 5: dipping by four points now five points, and the Nasdaq
20:33
Speaker 5: is off by only two points. Russell two thousand is
20:36
Speaker 5: up eight tenths of one percent, ten year treasure Real
20:39
Speaker 5: up two basis points at four point four to one percent,
20:43
Speaker 5: and crude oil is up about a third of a
20:45
Speaker 5: percent higher today trading just above sixty eight dollars a barrel.
20:50
Speaker 5: Several solar stocks, including sun Run and Phase Energy, and
20:53
Speaker 5: First Solar, seeing losses after the White House said it
20:56
Speaker 5: would enforce the halt to clean Electricity tax credit faster
21:01
Speaker 5: than expected. Sun Run down by eleven percent, while both
21:05
Speaker 5: in Phase Energy and First Solar are seeing losses of
21:08
Speaker 5: three percent. Meanwhile, Amazon Prime Day has officially begun and
21:12
Speaker 5: this year will extend to four days instead of two. However,
21:15
Speaker 5: according to Momentum Commerce, which manages fifty brands in a
21:19
Speaker 5: variety of product categories, said Prime sales fell almost fourteen
21:24
Speaker 5: percent in the first four hours of the event compared
21:27
Speaker 5: with the start of last year's sale. Amazon shares are
21:30
Speaker 5: now down nearly two percent. Elsewhere, Meta is continuing their
21:35
Speaker 5: aggressive AI recruitment for its super intelligence division, now hiring
21:40
Speaker 5: a top AI researcher from Apple. Both Meta and Apple
21:44
Speaker 5: stocks are flat Today. HSBC downgraded major banks JP, Morgan, Chase, Goldman, Sachson,
21:50
Speaker 5: Bank of America ahead of their second quarter earnings next week.
21:53
Speaker 5: Those stocks are down by about two percent, and Boeing
21:56
Speaker 5: delivered sixty airplanes in June, the most December of twenty
22:01
Speaker 5: twenty three. Boeing stock is down by one percent. I'm
22:05
Speaker 5: Talkinger Silvan. That is Wall Street Watch and in the
22:08
Speaker 5: previous segment we asked the trivia question what city was
22:11
Speaker 5: Chef Boyard founded in? That would be Cleveland, Ohio. Eric
22:16
Speaker 5: from Derry, New Hampshire is our winner today taking on
22:19
Speaker 5: the Financial Exchange Show t shirt. Congrats to Eric and
22:22
Speaker 5: we play trivia every day here in the Financial Exchange.
22:26
Speaker 5: See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
22:30
Speaker 3: Mark I want to talk about a couple pieces with
22:33
Speaker 3: regards to artificial intelligence, One from the New York Times
22:38
Speaker 3: which workers will AI hurt most, the young or the experienced?
22:41
Speaker 2: And one from the Wall Street Journal. CEO starts saying
22:44
Speaker 2: the quiet part out loud. AI will wipe out jobs.
22:48
Speaker 3: And let's tackle the New York Times when first in
22:52
Speaker 3: terms of which workers will AI hurt the most young
22:57
Speaker 3: or experienced? I think is the wrong way to look
23:01
Speaker 3: about this, look at this because it's basically saying like, Okay,
23:05
Speaker 3: is this you know something where we're going to get
23:06
Speaker 3: rid of the cheap workers or the ones with you know,
23:10
Speaker 3: lots of institutional knowledge.
23:12
Speaker 2: And I think ultimately.
23:15
Speaker 3: It's going to be different in different industries depending on
23:18
Speaker 3: where the real value lies. I know that's kind of
23:21
Speaker 3: a cop out, but it's just how it usually is.
23:24
Speaker 3: It's not usually one or the other. It's usually one
23:26
Speaker 3: and the other. Your thoughts.
23:28
Speaker 4: I'll make a really bold prediction here. Yeah, this new
23:31
Speaker 4: technology will reduce employment in some industries while increasing employment
23:38
Speaker 4: resulting in other industries resulting in more jobs overall. Why
23:42
Speaker 4: do I say that because that's been the result every
23:45
Speaker 4: time a new technology has been introduced, from steam to
23:49
Speaker 4: petroleum to electricity and all the little follow on technologies
23:54
Speaker 4: that resulted from those. And you could pick your favorite example.
23:58
Speaker 4: The light bulb put handle makers out of business eventually,
24:02
Speaker 4: et cetera, but created far more jobs at utility companies,
24:07
Speaker 4: et cetera. So Chuck, yeah, some people will be displaced.
24:10
Speaker 4: Maybe I'll be displaced by AI. I have my doubts
24:13
Speaker 4: there after seeing it perform in some areas that I
24:16
Speaker 4: have an interest in. But eventually maybe Sorry, that was
24:21
Speaker 4: the end of my thought.
24:22
Speaker 2: I thought, there's gonna be something, because.
24:24
Speaker 4: Normally you don't have a sentence with maybe maybe maybe
24:28
Speaker 4: I am more replaceable than I thought.
24:30
Speaker 3: And this was our first demonstration of Mark FANDETTAI on
24:34
Speaker 3: air live. So here's the thing that I always come
24:39
Speaker 3: back to on this is, ultimately, to a certain extent,
24:44
Speaker 3: we want jobs to be displaced by new technology because
24:48
Speaker 3: it means that we're getting more efficient and actually seeing
24:52
Speaker 3: gains in our real standard of living. As an example,
24:56
Speaker 3: when we moved from you know, having to harve every
25:00
Speaker 3: book into you know, stone tablets to the printing press.
25:04
Speaker 3: I know there were some technologies in between, obviously, but
25:07
Speaker 3: we didn't say, oh, those poor stone tablet makers you
25:11
Speaker 3: know here, let's let's keep giving them jobs because we
25:14
Speaker 3: need to keep them employed. No, Ultimately it was, hey,
25:18
Speaker 3: we can make way more books, way more cheaply by
25:22
Speaker 3: using this technology. To anyone in the construction industry, would
25:27
Speaker 3: you do your job without power tools? Probably not, but
25:33
Speaker 3: that effectively is something where we were able to do
25:37
Speaker 3: two things. Number One, in the short term, probably didn't
25:39
Speaker 3: need as many people working in construction, but number two,
25:42
Speaker 3: the ones who you know were still there could build
25:44
Speaker 3: way more stuff, way more cheaply, because it was much
25:48
Speaker 3: faster to do. So, you know, no one sits there
25:51
Speaker 3: and says, gee, you know what, I would prefer to
25:55
Speaker 3: just use, you know, a nice little handsaw to do
25:57
Speaker 3: everything as opposed to anything you know, using electricity. No, like,
26:00
Speaker 3: give me the electricity, let me let me build faster.
26:03
Speaker 3: So when it comes to AI displacing Mark me, Tucker
26:08
Speaker 3: or anyone else, because I do think that this actually
26:11
Speaker 3: the intersection of AI and robotics is now a place where,
26:14
Speaker 3: in the next few years, for the first time ever,
26:16
Speaker 3: I'm starting to feel that trades people are not entirely safe.
26:20
Speaker 4: That may be true, but they'll be repositioned and that's
26:23
Speaker 4: like they will be a cold and clinical way to
26:25
Speaker 4: describe somebody perhaps losing their their livelihood. There will be
26:29
Speaker 4: something but to your point, that happens every day technology.
26:33
Speaker 3: Mark, Ultimately, we should all hope that all of our
26:36
Speaker 3: jobs are because because this gets to the question of, look,
26:40
Speaker 3: if one person can wake up each morning and press
26:43
Speaker 3: one button and the whole world runs itself, don't we
26:46
Speaker 3: actually have more freedom to actually do what we want,
26:48
Speaker 3: even if what we're doing is still working, but just
26:51
Speaker 3: on different things or for our own enjoyment as opposed
26:55
Speaker 3: to whatever else. Yes, you want that easier life, No
26:59
Speaker 3: one actually sits there like make my life harder, like
27:02
Speaker 3: you don't want that. Do we have things societally that
27:05
Speaker 3: we're going to have to reckon with as we navigate
27:08
Speaker 3: what this could look like? Absolutely? Do I have any
27:11
Speaker 3: evidence that we can do that successfully?
27:13
Speaker 1: Not?
27:13
Speaker 3: Really, That might be the hard part is navigating each
27:15
Speaker 3: other more than navigating the robots and stuff like that.
27:19
Speaker 3: But this is something based on what I'm starting to
27:22
Speaker 3: see out there that I now think is a three
27:25
Speaker 3: to five year thing, not a fifteen to twenty year thing.
27:28
Speaker 3: So there's something coming here, and I don't think it's
27:33
Speaker 3: gonna be the generative AI stuff that's actually the media's
27:36
Speaker 3: piece of this, like generative AI writing haikus and giving
27:40
Speaker 3: you know, pictures of cats writing dinosaurs.
27:44
Speaker 2: I don't think that's where the meat is on this.
27:47
Speaker 3: I think quite Honestly, robotics is going to be something
27:50
Speaker 3: that is hugely transformative in the next decade. And I,
27:55
Speaker 3: for one, welcome our new robot overlords. I just want
27:59
Speaker 3: them to know that, you know, publicly a few times. Anyways,
28:05
Speaker 3: this is all something that is really interesting over the
28:08
Speaker 3: next five to ten years. But if you're thinking about
28:10
Speaker 3: AI right now and hey, like, how does this work
28:13
Speaker 3: with you know, my financial plan? The good news is
28:16
Speaker 3: that the Armstrong Advisory Group has a guide this month
28:19
Speaker 3: on this exact topic. It's titled AI and Your Financial
28:23
Speaker 3: Plan and specifically talking about the AI tools that are
28:26
Speaker 3: out there right now, budgeting ones, investment strategies, just understanding
28:32
Speaker 3: how AI can fit into you know, the world of
28:35
Speaker 3: finance and how it may or may not affect your
28:38
Speaker 3: personal portfolio and your financial plan. The guide is titled
28:43
Speaker 3: AI and Your Financial Plan and it's available by calling
28:47
Speaker 3: eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one. A
28:52
Speaker 3: lot of meat in here, a lot of things that
28:53
Speaker 3: you can think about as far as you know, Hey,
28:55
Speaker 3: are there places where AI can help and maybe what
28:58
Speaker 3: are some of the risks of using AI I with
29:00
Speaker 3: my financial plan? Because it's not always perfect. Again, the
29:04
Speaker 3: guide is titled AI in your financial plan, and you
29:06
Speaker 3: can request it by calling eight hundred three nine three
29:10
Speaker 3: for zero zero one.
29:13
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
29:15
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
29:18
Speaker 1: Armstrong Guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
29:21
Speaker 1: your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
29:23
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
29:27
Speaker 1: advisory services.
29:29
Speaker 3: I want to talk a little bit about Prime Week
29:33
Speaker 3: from Amazon, which used to be used to be Prime Day,
29:36
Speaker 3: and it's now Prime Week. It's running today through third
29:41
Speaker 3: through Friday of this week, so it literally is almost
29:44
Speaker 3: the whole week. And I got this piece here from
29:48
Speaker 3: the Wall Street Journal.
29:49
Speaker 2: Quote from it.
29:50
Speaker 3: The sale, which kicks off Tuesday, is expected to bring
29:52
Speaker 3: in a record twelve point nine billion in the US,
29:54
Speaker 3: a fifty three percent from last year, according to research
29:57
Speaker 3: firm E Marketer. So it's you know, longer. And then
30:00
Speaker 3: they also have all these other sales and this and
30:02
Speaker 3: that that they're doing now. But here's the thing that
30:07
Speaker 3: we have at least early on, and again I know
30:09
Speaker 3: that it is early on at this point, so we'll
30:12
Speaker 3: have to see where this goes. But according to early data.
30:18
Speaker 3: Right now, Prime Day sales are apparently down fourteen percent
30:22
Speaker 3: so far to start the day discuss.
30:26
Speaker 5: I chalk that up to just people realizing it's four
30:29
Speaker 5: days and they're not rushing. I think it's as simple
30:32
Speaker 5: as that, because I'm not like, I'm gonna be keeping
30:35
Speaker 5: an eye out for stuff. But I know it's only
30:38
Speaker 5: it's now four days instead of two. So I'm not
30:40
Speaker 5: like sprinting to get it done.
30:42
Speaker 1: Uh huh.
30:43
Speaker 5: I think it's as simple as that. Maybe I'm wrong.
30:45
Speaker 2: I don't know, Tucker.
30:47
Speaker 3: I've I know you've tended to focus on Prime Day
30:50
Speaker 3: more than I have. What what kinds of things are
30:53
Speaker 3: you looking for? And where do you see deals out
30:55
Speaker 3: there that you might be interested in? This are the
30:58
Speaker 3: things where you're seeing them?
30:59
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean in the past, I have purchased a vacuum,
31:02
Speaker 5: a Shark vacuum, which is a tremendous vacuum.
31:05
Speaker 2: They're fantastic. They're fantastic, But I saved like fifty bucks.
31:09
Speaker 5: I mean, I always had my eye out on anything
31:12
Speaker 5: kitchen related, love the cook and.
31:14
Speaker 2: Everything like that.
31:15
Speaker 5: I'm seeing if there might be an air compressor available
31:18
Speaker 5: because I discovered I needed one over the weekend when
31:21
Speaker 5: I was trying to blow up this sprinkler thing for
31:24
Speaker 5: the kids, and we had like a car thing car
31:27
Speaker 5: was in the backyard. It was a whole thing. So
31:29
Speaker 5: I am in the market for an air compressor.
31:32
Speaker 2: Picturing you're just trying to blow it up. You know.
31:34
Speaker 5: We literally had to put the car in the backyard
31:37
Speaker 5: to do this because we only had the one that
31:39
Speaker 5: hooked up to the car, not one to an outlet,
31:42
Speaker 5: so it was a whole oy.
31:43
Speaker 4: Do make converters, you know?
31:45
Speaker 2: We couldn't.
31:45
Speaker 5: We didn't have one.
31:47
Speaker 4: Amazon sells them, that's why.
31:50
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I have not seen anything. But I mean,
31:53
Speaker 5: I mean, wirecutters are fantastic source for looking at the
31:57
Speaker 5: best possible deals out there.
31:59
Speaker 3: I've said before, but looking at I'm just on Amazon
32:02
Speaker 3: looking at vacuum prices right now. I don't understand how
32:06
Speaker 3: vacuum repair people stay in business because it's literally cheaper
32:10
Speaker 3: to buy a new vacuum today than to like ship
32:13
Speaker 3: your old one off to fix it.
32:16
Speaker 5: Well, I mean, if you look at the show Breaking Bad,
32:18
Speaker 5: you can understand why.
32:19
Speaker 3: Well, yes, yes, but there's only you know, so many
32:23
Speaker 3: of those services that can exist in anyone location. You know,
32:27
Speaker 3: In any case, let's take a quick break. When we
32:29
Speaker 3: come back, we'll do a little bit of stack roulettes.
32:33
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32:36
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32:39
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33:12
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33:39
Speaker 4: What do you got for me for stack roule at Chuck,
33:40
Speaker 4: I know how much you love private credit as an
33:43
Speaker 4: asset classes an investment.
33:45
Speaker 2: Ah right, it's like your favorite.
33:47
Speaker 4: I thought i'd give you something to maybe grind your
33:50
Speaker 4: gears good. And there's an article in the Financial Times
33:53
Speaker 4: was not among today's top stories about innovations in the
33:56
Speaker 4: vehicles that allow vehicles like an TF or a mutual
34:00
Speaker 4: funds just a wrapper that allow investors. It could be
34:03
Speaker 4: a high net worth investor, it could be an every
34:05
Speaker 4: day schmuck like me, that allow you to buy things
34:08
Speaker 4: like private assets non publicly traded equity ownership that is,
34:13
Speaker 4: and credit loans that is that historically have only been
34:18
Speaker 4: available to sophisticated pension funds. And I guess the caveat here,
34:23
Speaker 4: this is a much broader and more interesting topic which
34:25
Speaker 4: is going to scratch the surface. The caveat here is
34:28
Speaker 4: whenever an investment manager says we're trying to democratize something,
34:33
Speaker 4: I think our house view on the phrase we're going
34:36
Speaker 4: to democratize this or that, Chuck is sort of run
34:38
Speaker 4: for the hills because they're actually trying to fleece you. Yes,
34:41
Speaker 4: and we're trying to unload this on unload that's what
34:44
Speaker 4: that's that's the verb I was going to use. They're
34:45
Speaker 4: trying to unload something on you. They couldn't unload on
34:48
Speaker 4: something more sophisticated. Nothing inherently wrong, right, Chuck with with
34:51
Speaker 4: private equity, some great companies that are owned privately, Dollar General,
34:55
Speaker 4: Staples of Petco and other so nothing inherently wrong with it.
35:01
Speaker 4: Or private credit, which is just the flip side that
35:03
Speaker 4: they make loans generally to private equity companies that in
35:07
Speaker 4: turn infuse it into some of the companies and others,
35:11
Speaker 4: some of those that I mentioned and others. So nothing
35:12
Speaker 4: inherently wrong with it, but usually for very sophisticated investors,
35:16
Speaker 4: not at all convinced. This is something that you make
35:18
Speaker 4: an appearance, for example, in four oh one K plans.
35:20
Speaker 4: But something I suspect we'll be talking a lot more about.
35:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's something where.
35:27
Speaker 3: My dislike for just the term private credit, even before
35:31
Speaker 3: we get to what it actually is, stems from the
35:33
Speaker 3: fact that a it doesn't really mean anything. I mean,
35:36
Speaker 3: private credit can be anything from like hey, I'm lending
35:39
Speaker 3: a company ten million dollars so it can run its
35:42
Speaker 3: operations to I lent someone money based on the value of.
35:46
Speaker 2: Their art collection.
35:48
Speaker 3: Like, those are both technically private credit, and you will
35:50
Speaker 3: see both of those in different private credit vehicles. So
35:54
Speaker 3: a like just being like, oh, I got some of
35:56
Speaker 3: my money in private credit is no different from being like, well,
35:58
Speaker 3: I've got some of my money in stock, Well, what
36:01
Speaker 3: is it?
36:01
Speaker 2: Is it? Campbell?
36:02
Speaker 3: Super is in Nvidia? You know, because those are kind
36:04
Speaker 3: of different things. So that bothers me a little bit
36:07
Speaker 3: to begin with. This is before we even get to
36:09
Speaker 3: that whole idea of democratization, which anytime that I hear
36:13
Speaker 3: that again, I think, okay, what are you trying to
36:15
Speaker 3: unload on someone? Because hey, private credit companies, private equity companies,
36:19
Speaker 3: they've made a lot of money working with you know,
36:21
Speaker 3: high net worth people, very small numbers of them, for
36:24
Speaker 3: a long period of time. Why are they all of
36:26
Speaker 3: a sudden trying to work with the person with five
36:28
Speaker 3: hundred dollars. It's not out of the kindness of their heart.
36:33
Speaker 3: It's not because they're like, well, we want to give
36:35
Speaker 3: you the great returns. Well, no, there's only so many
36:37
Speaker 3: great returns to go around. Not everyone can get the
36:41
Speaker 3: same payout. It doesn't work like that. There's a distribution
36:45
Speaker 3: of you know, companies that are good at it, companies
36:47
Speaker 3: that are bad at it. And if you're the small guy,
36:50
Speaker 3: where do you typically end up Not usually with like
36:53
Speaker 3: the best ones, because someone else can pay more for
36:56
Speaker 3: that kind of quality. It's no different from any other product,
37:00
Speaker 3: quite honestly. So whenever I hear the word democratize, immediately
37:05
Speaker 3: I start going, Okay, like, what bags are they trying
37:09
Speaker 3: to unload?
37:10
Speaker 2: Yeah?
37:10
Speaker 4: Absolutely, your antenna should go up. Very different than public markets.
37:13
Speaker 4: We can all participate in those. The other one very
37:16
Speaker 4: very different.
37:16
Speaker 3: The other thing to be careful of though, and this
37:19
Speaker 3: is something that you're starting to see more of as well,
37:21
Speaker 3: because I think there were a couple ETF approvals on
37:23
Speaker 3: This is publicly available securities that hold private ones. So
37:29
Speaker 3: think an ETF that holds you know, private credit instruments.
37:32
Speaker 3: And the problem here is not the liquidity of the
37:35
Speaker 3: public market instrument, but the underlying So if you're like,
37:39
Speaker 3: what do you actually own and when can you actually
37:41
Speaker 3: sell it? These are things that like you need to
37:44
Speaker 3: be aware of because yes, you might be able to
37:46
Speaker 3: sell the ETF, but depending on the liquidity of the
37:48
Speaker 3: underlying what kind of pricing do you actually get if you're,
37:52
Speaker 3: you know, trying to liquidate. You don't know until these
37:56
Speaker 3: things go through different stressful situations in markets, it can
37:59
Speaker 3: get really complicated. So all I would say on any
38:02
Speaker 3: of this be really really, really really careful when you
38:07
Speaker 3: start talking about private instruments. It's not a never touch them,
38:10
Speaker 3: but it's a know what you're doing and why you're
38:13
Speaker 3: doing it. Markets remain mostly flat thus far. We are
38:17
Speaker 3: done for the day, but the good news we'll be
38:20
Speaker 3: back on tomorrow and hopefully our show will be a
38:22
Speaker 3: little bit better than today.
38:23
Speaker 2: We'll see you then,