Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 3619 You Won’t BELIEVE the Latest BOMBSHELL POLL in New Jersey!!!

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Ep. 3619 You Won’t BELIEVE the Latest BOMBSHELL POLL in New Jersey!!! · Turley Talks

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: Dr. Steve Turley joined me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is Turley Talks.
• 0:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's here today's election day in three major blue states with one in particular on the verge of flipping red.
• 0:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: So can you do it?
• 0:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: Can Jack should really flip new jersey for the GOP?
• 0:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: I've got all the early voting data and we just had a pull drop as good to absolutely blow you away.
• 0:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: Hey gang, it's me, Dr. Steve Oore, Patre professor, and join yet another day in the glorious golden age that you made happen back on November the 5th.
• 0:47
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• 2:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: Election Day has arrived and the race that all Republicans are on is happening.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: In the otherwise Democrat stronghold of New Jersey.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: Now the very fact,
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  [SPEAKER_01]: that were even considering Jersey flipping red is itself indicative of a massive political realignment.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: That's happening in our nation.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: Don't forget, Joe Biden won Jersey by 16 points, just a few short years ago.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: Jersey is basically the Democratic equivalent of Tennessee for the Republicans.
• 3:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: So we were talking today about a Democrat gubernatorial candidate, possibly flipping Tennessee blue.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: That would certainly be a very real cause for concern if you're Republican.
• 3:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: Conversely, if you're a Democrat, and you have what was once when you're most reliably blues states on the verge of flipping red, even with the Republicans in power and D.C. because Jersey tends to vote the opposite of whichever parties in the White House, that is not a good sign.
• 3:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, of course,
• 3:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: And they're going to do everything they possibly can to convince you that Democrat-eeking outwins in otherwise deep blue states is somehow a massive victory for progressives and a reputation of Trump and an ominous bell weather for the midterms.
• 4:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, blah, blah, blah, don't buy it.
• 4:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: don't make no mistake behind all their famed bravado, Democrat insiders are panning.
• 4:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: They know their party brand is in the toilet, they know they but lighted themselves and they're in big trouble.
• 4:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: If an otherwise reliably blue state like New Jersey is in play for the Republicans, all the while a Republican is in the White House.
• 4:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so I want this video to encourage you
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  [SPEAKER_01]: Speaking of encouragement to put all of this in perspective, yesterday, Jack Chudorelli, while on the Cam Pain Trail, got a very special surprise.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: You know why Jack come over here a second.
• 4:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm just happy to hear why.
• 4:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Because this is an honor for what I'm going to say right now that you don't know what I'm going to say right now.
• 4:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: But your biggest supporter that serves this country just came over overnight to serve you.
• 5:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Jake, your father, your son.
• 5:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: Jack's son and army officer station in Kuwait flew all the way back to Jersey to be with his dad on election day and that's what it's all about.
• 5:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's what we're ultimately fighting for faith, family, and freedom.
• 5:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: And to that end, Jack got some pretty astonishing news.
• 5:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is from Kalshi, that's the bedding site, and it's fascinating because bedding sites like Kalshi and Polymarket actually tend to have astonishing predictive accuracy.
• 5:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, they pulled traders who actually live in Jersey, and they found that 86% believe Jack is going to win.
• 5:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's huge.
• 5:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: Again, betting sites historically have been amazingly accurate in their predictive significance.
• 6:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the guys who are betting on there seem to have down the whole science's statistical probability.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: And while polymarkid is giving Mikey Cheryl,
• 6:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Democrat, an 80% chance of winning, Calshy New Jerseyans are giving Jack in 90% chance of winning.
• 6:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that's in line with the anecdotal evidence, and I'm getting here being in the greater filly area, where I'm hearing from lots of people that they're seeing Jack should really signs everywhere.
• 6:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of enthusiasm for him.
• 6:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: In contrast to the rather noticeable absence of such support,
• 6:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: for the Democrat Mikey Cheryl, and that's important because, and I want to make sure you have the most accurate assessment of what's happening today, what's transpiring.
• 6:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's important because Jack, unfortunately, has not led in a single poll.
• 6:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: So here's the RCP polling average.
• 6:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: And as you can see, Jack is not up in the single pull.
• 7:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now again, we saw that in 2016, right?
• 7:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: We're Trump shocked the world as it were because he was so far behind, Hillary and the Poles.
• 7:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's always going to be a polling bias skewed towards the left, precisely because the polling industry is overwhelmingly leftist.
• 7:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's one of the reasons why they're always so bad.
• 7:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: But even the ones we trust, okay, that we're extremely accurate in 2024.
• 7:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: So we're talking.
• 7:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: Atlas Intel, Quantic Insights, Trafogger, they do have this race statistically tied.
• 7:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: They have it within one to three points, but nevertheless the edge always belongs to the Democrat and that's the reality going into this election that I want to make sure you all have and you hold.
• 7:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: We have to underscore just how astonishing it is.
• 7:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: That is state that voted for the Democrat presidential candidate by 16 points just a few short years ago could possibly even be this close, this neck and neck with the Republican candidate.
• 8:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: But that said, Jersey in the end is still a Democrat state.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: It's Democrat voter registrations far outnumber Republicans.
• 8:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: We're talking by hundreds of thousands.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: And that's just, that's a very tall mountain for Jack to climb because in the end there's just more Democrats than Republicans.
• 8:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: So no way around that.
• 8:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: On the other hand, that said, the reality is that Jack has indeed been searching in the polls.
• 8:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: So Mikey Cheryl's once commanding lead.
• 8:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: has basically evaporated.
• 8:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: Back in August, again, just a few weeks ago, she had a very comfortable double-digit lead, a 10-point lead, fast forward to today, and that margin has been slashed dramatically.
• 8:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: And it make matters even worse.
• 8:55
  [SPEAKER_01]: She can't seem to get above 48-49 percent support.
• 9:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's very concerning for her.
• 9:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: She's stuck below the crucial 50% threshold and that's a warning sign in a state where undecided voters historically break Republican.
• 9:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: Moreover, circling back Sochi to the polls here if we go back to 2021.
• 9:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: The RCP pulling average was actually off by five.
• 9:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: It gave Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy a 7.8 point lead.
• 9:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: How do I say that?
• 9:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, 7.8 point lead, right?
• 9:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: But he only won by 2.8 points.
• 9:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: So if that's the case today, if the RCP pulling average is as off as it was in 2021, Mikey Cheryl is up by three.
• 9:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: If that's the case, Jack wins by two, right?
• 9:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: If the past is preceded, if the past is predictive of what the polling error will be for today.
• 9:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: So there's multiple factors to consider here.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: Another very, very good sign.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: is how Jack has been doing in the early voting.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: So we've had weeks now of mail-in ballots and in person early voting and we'd see that Jack has dramatically improved his position as compared to his 2021 gubernatorial run when he lost by just under three points.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: Democrats currently hold a 266,000 vote firewall with a 22% margin going into the final stretch.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: So 22%
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  [SPEAKER_01]: Republicans, but at the same time back in 2021, they had a near 40% advantage, 37% to be exact.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: So, Jack is slashed that Democrat advantage by 15 percentage points.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: very significant improvement that suggests real momentum on the ground.
• 10:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: So Democrats have cast 51% of early ballots, Republicans have cast 29%.
• 10:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: Whereas in 2021, Democrats ran away with it.
• 11:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: They had cast 59% of ballots, Republicans trail by just 22%.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: So while the Democrats have seen an increase in the actual real amount of early votes cast,
• 11:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: Republicans have searched their early vote cast by a 133% so Republican early vote growth is running 50% higher than Democrat growth signaling again genuine grassroots energy that what just wasn't there for years ago or at least a very very effective get out the vote campaign that wasn't there four years ago more over
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  [SPEAKER_01]: Democrats appear to be depleting more of their high propensity voter pool in the early voting that Republicans are okay.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: So what's that about?
• 11:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, high propensity voters,
• 11:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: are voters that have come out and voted in every election, and at least four of the last four elections.
• 11:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: But ideally, you want your early voters to be low propensities.
• 12:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: Those who've only come out say in one or maybe even none of the last four elections.
• 12:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: Because voters who rarely vote cannot be counted on to come out on election day, right today.
• 12:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: So Democrats have already used up a much higher proportion of their high propensity voters in their early voting, whereas Republicans were quite effective in getting their low propensity voters to vote early, which means that today, all the high propensity Republicans are going to turn out a mass.
• 12:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: And that's what we're going to be looking for today.
• 12:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: that's what's so key.
• 12:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: If we can see a 60 40 Republican voter turnout today on election day.
• 12:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: Jack has a very real chance of pulling this off.
• 12:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: Again, the difficulty here is that because the Democrats have increased their number of early votes, when you bring in the finals,
• 13:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're going to have more or less the same firewall that they had back in 2021.
• 13:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: When all is said and done, the key is whether the Republicans were able to minimize that early vote firewall within an ordent number of low propensity voters, freeing up a massive surge of high propensity voters for today who were definitely going to show up for election day.
• 13:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: So bottom line, these are very strong early voting numbers for Jack.
• 13:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: an excellent sign to momentum for his campaign.
• 13:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: This race is very much in play today.
• 13:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: Regardless of what happens, this is not the position the Democrats wanted to be in.
• 13:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Not in a state that Biden won by 16 points.
• 13:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: Democrats should be winning by double digits.
• 13:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: They were back in August.
• 13:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: They were, that's what they thought they were going to be looking at.
• 13:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: Instead, they've had to pour millions upon millions of dollars in one after porn.
• 14:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: They had to drag out the old corpse Obama to go and campaign for Mikey.
• 14:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: Cheryl, I mean, we are instead of a runaway race, we're looking at what is essentially a toss up.
• 14:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: So New Jersey voters, gang,
• 14:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: The race isn't designed to all votes are counted, get to the polls, bring everyone you know, make your voice heard, jack left, everything on the field in this campaign.
• 14:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: And now it's up to voters to determine whether that effort translates into a stunning upset or a near-miss that sets the stage for future competitive races in the garden state.
• 14:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: Regardless of what happens, one thing is certain.
• 14:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: New Jersey is no longer the safe Democrat stronghold it once was.
• 14:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: Jersey will one day flip red.
• 14:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: Let's make that day today.
• 15:03
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• 15:07
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• 15:19
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