Transcript

5.21.26 · Science Show KY

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Radio Wized Diary of Science and Nature. Your
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reader's Kelly Taylor, and I'll have articles on the topics
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of science and nature. But first a reminder that RADIOI
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is a reading service intended for people who are blind
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or have other disabilities that make it difficult to reprinted material.
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We'll start off today. An article comes from USA Today
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and is headlined something weird and worrying is happening with rain.
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This is from May fourteenth, another one for the Weird
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Science File. New research shows that although the world is
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seeing more rain overall, it's also getting drier at the
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same time. How can that be? In simple terms, the
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world's rainfall is increasingly packed into bigger storms, with longer
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dry spells in between, and a lot of rain all
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at once causes problems for overwhelmed soil, the findings say.
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The study is the first to demonstrate that a year's
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worth of rainfall packed into bigger and wetter storms means
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less water for aquifers and ecosystems, even if total precipitation increases.
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Because soil can absorb only so much water at once,
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what is not soaked up collects on the surface, where
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it's more readily evaporated. Study lead author Corey Lesk, who
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led the study while a fellow at Dartmouth College, explained
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it in an email to USA Today. Quote, regardless of
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how much precipitation falls, when rain and snow come in
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stronger bursts separated by longer dry spells, less water tends
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to remain on the land for use by people. In nature,
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researchers analyze global precipitation records from nineteen eighty to twenty
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twenty two and determine that annual rainfall has become more concentrated,
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regardless of whether the local climate is wet or dry.
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According to the new study, published May thirteenth in the
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peer reviewed journal Nature, we discovered that it's not just
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supplied accounts, but also how it's delivered, says Justin Mankin,
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the studies senior author and associate professor of geography at Dartmouth. Quote,
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rainfall concentration is essentially asking the land to drink from
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a fire hose. When rainfall is intent should get more
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consecutive dry days. But more important is that heavier rains
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lead to surface ponding that is more easily evaporated by
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the atmosphere, he added. Quote it doesn't matter where you are.
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More consolidated rainfall means less water is available for the land.
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It's climate change to blame. Researchers say, it's a likely cause.
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We did not specifically test to what extent recent trends
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towards more concentrated precipitation are caused by climate change, Less
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told USA Today, But they are consistent with what we
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would expect from the theory of how warming shapes how
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rainfall is distributed in time. We show that warming weighs
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the dice for drying regardless of whether total precipitation increases
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or decreases in the future. Looking ahead, the study projects
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that rainfall will grow more consolidated as global temperatures rise
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because of climate change. An increase of three point six
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fahrenheit could lead to abnormally dry land conditions for twenty
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seven percent of the world's population, off setting any rise
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in total rainfall. Quote. This is not a good effect
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we've uncovered, says Lesk. It really exposes the mechanics of
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how climate change will affect water resources for everyone in quote.
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Consolidation of rainfall under global warming will lead to a
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drier land surface. Mangan said, what is unresolved is whether
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future total precipitation changes can keep pace. And now a
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turn to live science. Can people catch infections from plants?
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This is from May the sixteenth. It's a plot line
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that has haunted science fiction for decades. Humans become infected
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by plant pathogens, causing illness, death, or zombie like state.
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But is there any truth to this idea? Can plant
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germs really cross over to people? The short, disturbing answer
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is yes, experts totaled live science, but it's incredibly rare.
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Plant pathogens are viruses, bacteria, fungi, or other microorganisms that
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cause disease in plants, usually by infecting cells, reproducing and
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spreading within, and feeding on plant tissues. This can cause
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cell death, wilting, peculiar growths in discoloration, interrupt plant's ability
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to photosynthesize, stunt their growth, and ultimately kill them. Fungi
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cause an estimated eighty five percent of plant diseases overall.
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Much of what we know about how the human body
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functions makes it seem unlikely that these pathogens could invade
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our bodies. Quote, it is extremely rare for a pathogen
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to jump from a plant to a human or vice versa.
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Because our biological architectures are fundamentally different, says doctor Soma Duta,
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a physician and medical microbiologist at Apollo Multi Specialty Hospitals
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in Quolcata, India. Plant pathogens have evolved to breach the thick,
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rigid walls of cellulose or hemicellulose inside plants. By contrast,
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human cells are protected by lipid membranes, which are lined
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with receptor proteins that can initiate and immune response. Plant
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pathogens generally don't have the tools to break through these
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membranes due to explained Besides, for most plant specific fungi
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and bacteria, which typically survive in temperatures of up to
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seventy seven degrees fahrenheit, our much higher bodily average temperature
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is uncomfortably hot. Quote. The human body is essentially a
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furnace due to sid the heat denatures their proteins and
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prevents them from causing infection, but there are exceptions. In
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twenty twenty three, due to in colleague U Hoojiwini Array,
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a consultant microbiologist and Apollo Multi Specially Hospitals in Kolkata,
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published a case report about a patient who had developed
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a persistent cough and sore throat, was struggling to swallow
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and was not eating with seemingly no cause. When doctors
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examined him, they found a pus filled abscess developing beside
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his windpipe. An exam revealed spores from Chondrosterium purpureum, a
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fungus that causes silver leaf disease and plants. The researchers
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discovered that the sixty one year old was a plant mycologist,
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someone who studies the relationship between fungi and plants. For years,
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his professional work involved direct intense contact with decaying wood,
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mushrooms and various plant fungi. This provided a clear pathway
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for inhalation of spores, says Duta. She and her colleague
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hypothesized that the spores had somehow managed to hide from
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or resist phagiocytosis, a crucial phase of the human immune response,
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allowing them to establish a colony and spread. But to Dutah,
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the fungal infection remains a puzzle because despite being a
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cool weather fungus, it had managed to survive the higher
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temperature of the human body. When a course of anti
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fungal tablets, that person recovered fully that's not always a case.
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In the rare situations where plant pathogens cross over into humans,
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they typically affect those with weakened immune systems, which can
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result in death. Many of these pathogens thrive in warm,
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moist stable environments, and they've been detected in catheters and
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breathing equipment in hospitals, which is how vulnerable patients can
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become exposed. For example, the bacterium Pantoia aglomrands causes disease
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in a range of food crops like rice, maize, and sorghum,
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and if it gets into the human bloodstream, it can
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be deadly. Another type of bacteria causes rot in onions
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and rice, and research has documented cases where this germ
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has infected cystic fibrosis patients, causing pneumonia, blood poisoning, and death.
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An investigation into several strains of b sep sepasica found
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that the microorganisms could surpass the defensive silii and yucous
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lining in the airways and get into and spread within
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the lungs. Another bacterium causes soft rot in plants like
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lettuce and potatoes, but it has also been found in
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hospitals where it has passed to immunocompromise patients with severe burn,
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wounds or cancer or aids, causing infections in their urinary tracts, blood,
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and lungs. Plant viruses are generally believed not to pose
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a risk to humans because of the unique mechanisms that
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they use to infect plants, but scientists have unearthed some
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compelling clues that we might be vulnerable to the diseases
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they can trigger. In twenty fourteen, Philippe Colson, a professor
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of medical virology at a university in France, dealved into
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the strange case of pepper mild model virus, a highly
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contagious plant pathogen that causes pepper plants to shrivel up.
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Peppers are widely consumed, so Colson and his colleagues studied
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the stool scent of over four hundred people and found
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the RNA of the virus. Individuals who had the virus
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in their stools were significantly more likely to have symptoms
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of the disease. We were able to find a correlation
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between the presence of this virus in human stools and
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the symptoms of fever and pruritis or itchy skin, although
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they didn't show a definite causal link. The symptoms may
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have been triggered by something else in the food. Quote.
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It made us question whether there could be an infection
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within our body and whether or not it could be
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pathogenic in some cases, he said. The study also showed
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that the affected patient's stools contained antibodies specific to the
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pepper virus. The virus's ability to withstand the human gut
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suggests it is highly resilient. In fact, pepper mild model
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virus is so robust that it's been considered for use
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as an indicator of human fecal pollution in waterways. Colson
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is also triggered or in treat by tobacco mosaic virus,
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which leaves a distinctive pattern on tobacco leaves. It causes shriveling,
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affects their ability to photosynthesize, and stunts their growth. Strikingly.
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Previous research into this virus had looked at people that
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had lung cancer, and they found the virus in their biopsies,
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Colson said. Colson's own research has detected tobacco mosaic virus
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in several cigarette brands and in the saliva of people
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who smoke them. This raises tentative questions about whether the
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virus can travel into human bodies through cigarettes and possibly
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play a role in smoking related cancers. Colson said, for now,
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research on viral plant pathogen crossover into humans is limited,
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with the central puzzle being how they might infect humans
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if they do. Plant viruses typically enter plant cells through
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a hole in the cellulose wall, whereas viruses and humans
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have to interact with a series of receptors around the
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cell before they can break in. Yet, the important implications
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of potential plant virus infection in humans makes Colson quite
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confident that this is a field that will expand in
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the near future. The research so far shows that it's
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highly unusual for any plant diseases to seriously or fatally
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develop in people who don't already have severely compromised immune systems.
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Crossovers are extremely rare due to noted but she believes
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that our changing planet means plant pathogens deserve continued attention
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and research. Quote. The most significant barrier of the human
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body is temperature, which is being eroded by climate change
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and global warming due to sid as global temperatures rise,
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plant pathogens may be finding ways to adapt to these
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warmer conditions equipping them to survive in our bodies. Quote.
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The final message regarding plant to human crossovers is one
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of evolving vigilance due to sid While the biological barriers
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between plant and animals seen remain very strong and not
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easily breakable. The case of the Chondrastrium purpurium infection serves
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as a vital reminder that rare does not mean impossible.
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Staying with Live science now the biggest El Nino event
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since the eighteen seventies superrell Nino, it's is now the
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most likely scenario by the end of this year. This
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is dated May the fifteenth. A super all Nino is
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now the most likely scenario from October twenty twenty six
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to February twenty twenty seven. According to a new forecast
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from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center,
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El Nino is the warmer phase of the natural al
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Nino Southern oscillation climate cycle, a periodic shift in the
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waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean that supercharges global temperatures,
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in turn impacting weather, pass and crops worldwide. Now, in
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a new in SO forecast published May fourteenth, NOAH estimates
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that there's a sixty five percent chance that the upcoming
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al nino will be classified as strong or very strong
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starting in October, potentially placing it among the strongest in
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recorded history. A very strong al nino, meaning a three
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point six degree fahrenheit rise in sea surface temperatures and
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unofficially called a quote super alnino, is now the most
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most probable scenario for the October to February period. There
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is also now an eighty two percent chance that Alninho
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will arrive between now in July, with the phase looking
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highly likely to continue until February twenty twenty seven. This
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is a roughly twenty percentage point increase in certainty from
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Noah's April forecast. Alnino events occur every two to seven
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years when shifts in wind and current patterns in the
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tropical Pacific caused sea surface temperatures to riseero point nine
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degrees fahrenheit above historical averages, resulting in profound knock on
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effects on the global climate. The world is rapidly exiting
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the neutral phase. The world's most recent al nino spanned
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from May twenty twenty three to March twenty twenty four
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and was partially responsible for twenty twenty four being the
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hottest year on record. If the upcoming al nino is
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strong or very strong, twenty twenty seven could surpass the
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previous record. In fact, the impending al nino may itself
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break records. Quote confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially
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the weirdest alnino event since the eighteen seventies, says Paul Rounde,
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professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the Universal Albity.
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If a super al Nino does occur, it could rival
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the strongest strong record, a catastrophic eighteen seventy seven event
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that spurred the eighteen seventy six to eighteen s seventy
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eight Global Famine. The famine killed over fifty million people,
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or three percent of the world's population at the time.
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Although the social, political, and economic landscapes have changed since
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the eighteen seventy seven seventy eight El Nino, the upcoming
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event could still seriously threaten food, water, and economic security
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around the world. Quote. What is different now is that
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our atmosphere and oceans are substantially warmer than they were
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in the eighteen seventies, which means the associated extremes could
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be more extremes, says deep De Singh, head of Climate
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Extremes and Impacts Lab at Washington State University. More recent
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examples demonstrate the threat of strong and very strong Alninho phases.
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For example, in al Nino in nineteen seventy seven in
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nineteen sorry nineteen ninety seven to nineteen ninety eight led
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to an estimated global economic loss of thirty two bills
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to ninety six billion dollars noah in so Forecaster Nathaniel
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Johnson recently told Live Science that a very strong al
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Ninia would impact fisheries and crops, as well as heightened
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the risk of wildfires and hurricanes in parts of the world.
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Quote You've got more people that are living in poverty already,
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and if you get in a reduction of crop yields
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because of drought or flooding, then that drives prices even higher,
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says Liz Stevens, professor of Climate Risk and Resilience at
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the University, reading in the UK. Quote, so we're looking
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at potentially quite huge humanitarian impacts this year, especially if
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the crisis in the Middle East continues. In quote and
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now we have an article from the Wall Street Journal.
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The Colorado River is in crisis, and this is dated
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May the fifteenth. The Colorado River is running dangerously low,
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and the seven Western states they rely on it can't
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agree on how to share what's left. A deal deadline
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came and went in February, leading the federal government to
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threaten its own solution, one that would keep the dams
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generating power but likely bring painful cuts to water use.
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Quote we're positive about one thing. No one will be satisfied,
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says Interior Secretary Doug Burgham. The river provides water for
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forty million people and more than five million acres of farmland.
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Its dams produce electricity for millions of people. The current
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crisis is rooted in a compact. In a compact that
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Western states made in nineteen twenty two, officials overestimated how
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much water the river would provide by the twenty first century.
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As drought gripped the region, it became harder to meet
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the deal's water allocation obligations. They diminished water supply, coupled
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with a growing population, has led to years of short falls.
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To make up for short falls, states pull water from
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the reservoirs, which serve as storage banks for the system,
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drawing down reserves has taken a toll. Lakes Mead and Powell,
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the biggest reservoirs in the basin, have fallen about seventy
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five percent from peak volumes. The water shortages have inflamed
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tensions between the upper basin states Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and
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New Mexico, and the lower basin states Arizona, California, and Nevada.
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The nineteen twenty two agreement granted roughly equal allotments from
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the river, but the lower basin routinely uses more. The
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upper and lower basins are jockeying to shape a new
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long term solution as several water sharing pacts expire this year.
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The unusually warm winter led to this being the worst
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year for snow pack in Colorado and Utah on record.
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Officials estimate Lake Powell will receive the least amount of
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water this year since the reservoir began to fill in
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nineteen sixty three. Quote, so really just no good news,
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said hydrologist Cody Moser of Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.
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For now, authorities are sending water from an upstream reservoir
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to replenish Lake Powell, but it is a short term fix.
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Quote there's not enough water to fill the hole, said
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Brian Richter, president of Sustainable Waters, a global water education organization.
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Now we'll turn to Scientific American. This articles dated May twentieth.
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Extreme heat is breaking records in the East. Here's why.
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For those in the eastern half of the country, mid
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May is feeling a lot more like Midsummer with an
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early heat wave brings record breaking temperatures. Boston hit ninety
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six degrees fahrenheit on Tuesday, breaking the record for the
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date of ninety degrees set back in nineteen forty nine.
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Dulles Airport near Washington hit ninety four degrees, surpassing the
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previous record of ninety two. The city reached ninety seven
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degrees fahrenheit, surpassing the previous record by one degree, and
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Philadelphia reached ninety eight degrees on Tuesday, besting the previous
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record of ninety six set in nineteen sixty two. The
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cause of the roasting heat is a weather system that
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always accompanies a big spike in temperatures, a high pressure ridge.
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In this specific case, the system is called the Bermuda
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High a semi permanent area of high pressure hanging out
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over the Atlantic Ocean to the east of North America.
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That is also one of the atmospheric features that steers
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summer hurricanes. The clockwise flow of air around the Bermuda
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High pulls up one arm humid air from the south.
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This heat wave is not as intense as the one
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that sent temperatures soaring well into the triple digits in
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the Southwest in March, but it's still bringing temperatures into
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the nineties from the mid Atlantic to the Northeast, well
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ahead of average. Humidity is also rising, with view points
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in the sixties. That sixties fahrenheit. That's not as sweltering
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as they can be in the dog days of summer,
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but it's the highest they have been so far this year.
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Though this week's temperatures won't challenge any all time record highs,
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they still pose or health risk because people are less
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acclimated to the heat this early in the year. The
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National Weather Service's Heat Risk map tool shows major heat
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risk the second highest category, from Washington, d c Up
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to Boston. Relatively high overnight temperatures are a particular concern
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because they mean people's body doesn't have a chance to
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cool down and recover. Climate change is driving this event too. Overall,
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summer heat waves are becoming more intense, longer lasting, and
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more frequent. The high heat season is also bleeding into
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spring and fall. For this particular heat wave, a tool
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from the non private research group Climate Central shows that
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this heat event is two to five times more likely
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because of climate change. The heat wave will be short
23:24
lived for northern areas because a backdoor cold front will
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roll through later on Wednesday. First, a mere a more
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traditional cold front with winds from the northwest will move
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into the area, and then winds will switch to become northeasterly.
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That shift will reinforce the coolness and keep the heat
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from reasserting itself over the mid Atlantic and Northeast. The southeast, though,
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will continue to feel sultry temperatures amid a widespread drought
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that is raising wildfire risks. Now will turn to The
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Washington Post. The headline for this article is scientists now
24:04
say this worst case climate scenario is quote implausible. Here's
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what it means. This is dated May nineteenth. For more
24:14
than a decade, as scientists tried to evaluate just how
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much the planet might warm by the end of the century,
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the most extreme scenario they considered in models was one
24:24
in which humanity doubled down on burning of fossil fuels,
24:28
took no action to limit emissions, and suffered profound consequences
24:33
as the world grew hotter. Now, as time has passed
24:37
and the world has changed, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on
24:41
Climate Change seems poised to retire its most extreme future
24:45
emission scenario, commonly known as RCP eight point five, after
24:52
scientists found that those projections have become implausible. Some on
24:56
the right, including President Donald Trump, are now suggesting the
24:59
move shows that global warming does not pose a significant threat.
25:04
Many climate scientists, however, say the reality is more nuanced.
25:09
They note that the deployment of renewable energy and other
25:12
factors has helped avert the kind of runaway warming that
25:17
once seemed more conceivable, even as climate change still poses
25:21
serious risks around the globe. Good riddance, President Trump wrote
25:27
on truth Social this past weekend, in a post amplified
25:31
Saturday by the White House quote after fifteen years of
25:35
Democrats promising that climate change is going to destroy the planet,
25:39
the United Nations top Climate committee just admitted that its
25:42
own projections were wrong. Wrong, wrong, Trump, who has withdrawn
25:49
the nation from international Climate agreements and called global warming
25:52
a hoax, appeared to relish the notion that scientists had
25:56
finally abandoned their most alarmist doomsday projection for the end
26:00
of this century. But scientists have been debating for years
26:04
how to decipher the complex factors behind the world's climate trajectory,
26:09
publishing a range of potential scenarios to capture the future
26:13
shift in greenhouse gas emissions and the devastating impacts that
26:17
could result. On one end of the spectrum. If the
26:21
world clings to fossil fuels and does little to address
26:25
the warming atmosphere, humanity can expect more suffering in the
26:29
form of stronger storms, deeper droughts, and other catastrophes. If
26:34
nations quickly transition to clean energy and sharply cut emissions,
26:38
they have repeatedly written, the impacts will likely be far milder.
26:45
The RCP eight point five scenario that Trump referenced has
26:48
long been used by IPCC scientists as a shorthand for
26:53
a worst case scenario, a world in which countries continue
26:57
to burn oil, gas, and coal unabated. The little thought
27:00
toward the atmospheric consequences scientists have pointed out for nearly
27:05
a decade that the worst case path was becoming less
27:09
and less likely. In twenty seventeen, scientists Justin Ritchie and
27:15
Haddie Daal Lattabadi published a paper arguing that the assumption
27:20
of the vast continued use of coal into the future
27:24
were not realistic and that RCP eight point five in
27:27
scenarios like it are exceptionally unlikely. And that was nine
27:33
years ago. In a commentary published in the journal Nature
27:36
in twenty twenty, scientists Zeke Housefather and Glenn Peters argued
27:42
the scenario ought to be discarded happily, and that's a
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word we climatologists rarely get to use. The world imagined
27:50
in the RCP eight point five is one that, in
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our view, becomes increasingly implausible with every passing year, they wrote.
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Even so, the US use of RCP eight point five
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inn climate modeling has remained in part as a way
28:06
to study what might happen under a baseline scenario in
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which the world does nothing to tackle climate change. Well
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that's all for today's Diary of Science and Nature. Your
28:18
reader was Kelly Taylor. Now stay tuned for further programming
28:21
on RADIOI