Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Wild Card Weekend with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter

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Wild Card Weekend with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: It's New Year's Eve Day Later onto the show, Simon
0:19
Speaker 1: Hunter Professional Better and Darren Revel Professional Non Better. It's
0:24
Speaker 1: gonna be on the show. They're gonna be on the show.
0:25
Speaker 1: We're gonna review our year for the Westgate Las Vegas
0:28
Speaker 1: Super Contest. We did not win one point five million dollars.
0:32
Speaker 1: We did not win any money, but we came oh
0:35
Speaker 1: so freaking close. We were four and one in the
0:38
Speaker 1: final weekend of the year. We finished one and a
0:41
Speaker 1: half games out of the money, which is just crushing.
0:46
Speaker 1: But Darren and Simon are gonna come on and we're
0:48
Speaker 1: gonna talk about what we've learned and reviewed the season
0:51
Speaker 1: for a few minutes. We're gonna congratulate Simon on getting
0:54
Speaker 1: us to Yahoo's as close as he did, because it
0:56
Speaker 1: was not easy. I can tell you that right now.
0:59
Speaker 1: But for first joining me for the last podcast of
1:04
Speaker 1: the decade, two thousand nine from New Orleans representing all
1:10
Speaker 1: of the BOYD Gaming books throughout the country. Bob Scucci,
1:32
Speaker 1: Mr Scucci, how are you Chad? What's going on? Dude?
1:37
Speaker 1: We made it through another season. I of course was
1:41
Speaker 1: brilliant in case you need a reminder, I win your
1:45
Speaker 1: final tally. Let me give you my final tally, Bob.
1:48
Speaker 1: It was one, one, one, twelve and three. Fifty five
1:57
Speaker 1: point seven was my winning percentage against the spread. What
2:04
Speaker 1: do you think of that? That's pretty strong, I mean
2:08
Speaker 1: approach and fifty is really good. I don't think people
2:11
Speaker 1: realize how hard how hard that is to do. I mean,
2:16
Speaker 1: you know, you hear people saying that they hit sixty.
2:20
Speaker 1: That's over a short, short sample of games, I'm sure,
2:24
Speaker 1: But to do two fifty six games throughout the entire
2:27
Speaker 1: football season, every NFL game, that's pretty good. How hard
2:32
Speaker 1: is it, Bob? How hard is it to do that?
2:34
Speaker 1: What would you say you would have expected me to
2:37
Speaker 1: do betting every game? I would have expected right around
2:43
Speaker 1: fifty four fifty three, and that would have been very
2:48
Speaker 1: good as well. You know, every year for the last
2:52
Speaker 1: fifteen twenty years, one of the local papers here in
2:55
Speaker 1: Las Vegas, they have all the bookmakers at kind of
2:59
Speaker 1: all the the major casinos, UH do kind of something
3:03
Speaker 1: similar to pick every game throughout all the uh the
3:08
Speaker 1: NFL season, and remarkably almost all of them are right
3:12
Speaker 1: at So these are all these are all the sports
3:15
Speaker 1: book directors. You know some some of them are well
3:18
Speaker 1: below fift, some of them are a little higher than
3:22
Speaker 1: but very rarely do you see anyone approaching uh, you know,
3:25
Speaker 1: anything close to. So here's what's interesting to me is
3:32
Speaker 1: I never expected to not make money on this. So
3:37
Speaker 1: as you know, like I was doing this with a
3:39
Speaker 1: friend and we put in money at the beginning of
3:42
Speaker 1: the year. We never had to put money back in.
3:45
Speaker 1: We went eleven and five the first weekend, and for
3:48
Speaker 1: the rest of the year we were playing basically with
3:52
Speaker 1: the initial investment, so we never had to put money
3:54
Speaker 1: back in order to beat all two D and fifty
3:56
Speaker 1: six games, which was a thrill because I was actually
3:59
Speaker 1: nervous ab that. Um. But for some reason, I never
4:03
Speaker 1: expected to do anything less than the r O I
4:07
Speaker 1: positive inness. Yeah, that's pretty uh pretty positive thinking. They're
4:14
Speaker 1: pretty confident. Yeah, well, listen, I am a confident confident man.
4:22
Speaker 1: I mean the point spreads, I mean the points spreads
4:24
Speaker 1: are specifically designed so that everyone goes fifty fifty. That's
4:28
Speaker 1: what makes it so difficult, and picking picking winners is
4:32
Speaker 1: kind of knowing or or seeming to know what is
4:36
Speaker 1: not built into the point spread. That's kind of the
4:38
Speaker 1: trick of handicapping is finding some kind of angle or
4:43
Speaker 1: metric that's not built into the point spread, because that's
4:47
Speaker 1: what they're designed for, so that everyone goes fifty. So
4:50
Speaker 1: what I think is not built into the point spread
4:53
Speaker 1: is usually public perception. And what I mean by that
4:58
Speaker 1: is the public perception that comes from having watched the
5:03
Speaker 1: games and then try to into it what you think
5:08
Speaker 1: the public is going to believe and then betting against that.
5:12
Speaker 1: And we've talked a lot about the Dolphins, we talked
5:16
Speaker 1: a lot about the Cults earlier in the year. We
5:19
Speaker 1: talked a lot about the Jets in very specific spots
5:23
Speaker 1: and sort of the public knowing when it last saw
5:28
Speaker 1: and then automatically deciding that's how a team was going
5:30
Speaker 1: to perform the following week, and knowing that you, as
5:33
Speaker 1: the bookmaker, we're going to shade the team that they
5:36
Speaker 1: were playing, or shade the team that they were playing.
5:40
Speaker 1: When do you, as the bookmaker, structure we consider your
5:42
Speaker 1: position or anything. The public is so smart that there
5:46
Speaker 1: is no value in sort of overshading based on what
5:49
Speaker 1: you think the public is going to believe. Yeah, I
5:52
Speaker 1: mean it's different. I can't generalize and say when I
5:57
Speaker 1: mean it's it's it's kind of a feel and when
6:00
Speaker 1: you're saying, I think you have an advantage when you're
6:02
Speaker 1: able to see thousands and thousands of bets coming across
6:06
Speaker 1: every day and you kind of you're you're almost getting
6:09
Speaker 1: inside the mind of the casual better, which is scary
6:12
Speaker 1: actually when you think about that. But but you start
6:16
Speaker 1: to see their patterns and you can almost predict what
6:19
Speaker 1: they're gonna do and when they're going to jump off
6:21
Speaker 1: a team and when they're going to keep riding a team. Um,
6:24
Speaker 1: And that's kind of what we try to do, is
6:26
Speaker 1: get in get into their into their heads to kind
6:29
Speaker 1: of predict what they're going to do, so we can
6:31
Speaker 1: kind of head them off at the past and then
6:33
Speaker 1: kind of at the same time, you've got the opposite
6:35
Speaker 1: thing working where you're going up against the sharp professional
6:38
Speaker 1: betters and in many cases they're on opposite sides of
6:42
Speaker 1: the casual fans. So it's, uh, it's just one of
6:45
Speaker 1: those dynamics that keeps going back and forth. I have
6:48
Speaker 1: always believed that bookmakers are probably the best psychologists in
6:55
Speaker 1: the country. They know more about what the public is
6:59
Speaker 1: thinking and what people are thinking then they do when
7:02
Speaker 1: they're actually doing it. Like you guys know what people
7:05
Speaker 1: are going to do before they do it, and you
7:07
Speaker 1: know why they're gonna do it. Yeah. It's funny because
7:10
Speaker 1: like I'll like on Mondays or Tuesdays each week and
7:14
Speaker 1: I run into people and they tell me, uh, yeah,
7:16
Speaker 1: I had seven out of eight teams and uh And
7:20
Speaker 1: I could always tell them what their eight team was
7:22
Speaker 1: that the losing team, And then they're always amazed, and
7:24
Speaker 1: I'm like, let me guess you're lost on this game.
7:27
Speaker 1: They're like, how did you know that? Well? I just
7:30
Speaker 1: picked all the most popular teams and saw which one
7:33
Speaker 1: was the biggest surprise, and that was that was the
7:37
Speaker 1: one that you you had that cost you your eight
7:39
Speaker 1: team parlay. You're like, because it's my job to know,
7:43
Speaker 1: because without you, I don't make any money. Exactly, that's
7:49
Speaker 1: what you want to say. We got a bunch of
7:53
Speaker 1: playoff games this weekend, so we gotta dig in. You
7:56
Speaker 1: know what I'm saying. Are you ready to see that
7:58
Speaker 1: I do? Here we go Saturday, Buffalo at Houston. Houston
8:06
Speaker 1: is a two and a half point favorite. As you know,
8:11
Speaker 1: I am also in a very high stakes super Bowl pool.
8:15
Speaker 1: The beginning of the year. Uh, it's a two thousand
8:18
Speaker 1: dollar buy in. There's four, there's three four people total.
8:22
Speaker 1: Winner wins eight thousand dollars or six thousand dollars including
8:26
Speaker 1: not including the money that they put in themselves. And uh,
8:31
Speaker 1: you pick eight teams at the beginning of the year,
8:34
Speaker 1: and hopefully you win the Super Bowl with one of
8:35
Speaker 1: those teams. I picked eight teams, including I have five
8:40
Speaker 1: teams that made the playoffs. No one else had five
8:43
Speaker 1: teams make the plaoffs. I have the Chiefs, I have
8:46
Speaker 1: the Niners, I have the Bills, Texans, and Titans. What
8:51
Speaker 1: do you think of that? That's pretty strong, my man?
8:54
Speaker 1: That is is it possible? And just really good at
8:57
Speaker 1: this It's possible. All those years, all those years around
9:03
Speaker 1: the sports books, they're paying off, finally paying us. So
9:06
Speaker 1: I got Buffalo visiting Houston two and a half way
9:09
Speaker 1: favorites of the Houston Texans. I guess at two and
9:11
Speaker 1: a half, I lean towards the Texans just because they're
9:15
Speaker 1: a short home favorite. But I don't love this game.
9:18
Speaker 1: I don't see a huge advantage here. That was kind
9:21
Speaker 1: of what we were thinking. We hung three on this game,
9:24
Speaker 1: and we've taken more money on the Bills than any
9:27
Speaker 1: other game on the board. Part of that is the
9:31
Speaker 1: initial uh just opinion of the sharp guys on the Bills,
9:36
Speaker 1: but now recently it's because we're the only three left
9:39
Speaker 1: out there. Like you mentioned, most everyone is at two
9:42
Speaker 1: and a half. Um, I just want to avoid the
9:45
Speaker 1: situation where I'm bouncing back and forth between two and
9:48
Speaker 1: a half and three. I don't want to do that.
9:51
Speaker 1: So I really if I'm going to get off the three,
9:53
Speaker 1: it's because it's going to be because of a lot
9:55
Speaker 1: of money on the Bills. I did favorite the Texans, uh,
9:59
Speaker 1: like you said the earlier, given all things being equal,
10:03
Speaker 1: I would probably uh take the home team here lay
10:06
Speaker 1: in a field goal. Uh. The one kind of drawback
10:11
Speaker 1: is that Houston is really banged up. So they have
10:14
Speaker 1: got a lot of question marks going into this game
10:18
Speaker 1: at the wide receivers spot, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills. On
10:22
Speaker 1: the defensive side, I mean, they've got cornerbacks, linebackers all
10:25
Speaker 1: listened as questionable. Uh that's gonna be. I mean, you
10:29
Speaker 1: can fade one or two injuries, but when you're talking
10:33
Speaker 1: about five or six going into a playoffs game, it
10:36
Speaker 1: could it could have an impact, and I think that's
10:39
Speaker 1: part of the reason, uh that we're seeing such a
10:44
Speaker 1: uh an amount being a bet on the bills from
10:46
Speaker 1: from some of the sharper guys. The ticket account on
10:49
Speaker 1: this one is almost identical, so the that the casual
10:53
Speaker 1: fans are just it's a coin toss to them. But honestly,
10:57
Speaker 1: I feel like, if you're gonna bet on the bills
10:59
Speaker 1: at my at plus two and a half, you almost
11:01
Speaker 1: might as well bet him on the money line, because
11:04
Speaker 1: to me, this is a field goal game. Yeah, and
11:07
Speaker 1: we did. We've got way more money on the bills
11:10
Speaker 1: money line at plus one. Now we were at we
11:13
Speaker 1: opened up the dollar fifty on the Texans money line,
11:16
Speaker 1: which meant you could have gotten plus a dollar thirty
11:18
Speaker 1: on the bills. Were down to plus a dollar and
11:22
Speaker 1: almost no money on the Texans money line. Ironically, it's
11:25
Speaker 1: just you know, just all bills money line. And uh
11:30
Speaker 1: we got a little bit more, even split bets on
11:34
Speaker 1: the point line on the game, but still just a
11:36
Speaker 1: lot a lot of money on the bills. And impressed
11:38
Speaker 1: that I transitioned it to money line at that numbers.
11:42
Speaker 1: It's impressive to I never never ceased to be amazed
11:45
Speaker 1: and impressed by myself and my ability to think about
11:49
Speaker 1: the logic and strategy in sports betting after all these years. Scooch, Uh,
11:53
Speaker 1: you are your fan? Yeah, exactly. New England, someone's got
11:58
Speaker 1: to be New England is a four and a half
11:59
Speaker 1: point favorite over the Tennessee Titans. I love Tennessee in
12:02
Speaker 1: the spot. I'm not saying that I think they're gonna
12:04
Speaker 1: win the game, but I do think that that line
12:06
Speaker 1: seems awfully inflated. Tell me why you got to that line. Well,
12:10
Speaker 1: we opened six, so it was really inflated, and it
12:13
Speaker 1: got bet down four and a half. So yeah, we
12:16
Speaker 1: took it. We took a lot of money on the Titans.
12:18
Speaker 1: I will say that I moved it pretty quickly. Um So,
12:22
Speaker 1: considering a point and a half line change from six
12:25
Speaker 1: down to four and a half. There's still a lot
12:27
Speaker 1: of places out there that are at five and a
12:29
Speaker 1: half and five. So we did move pretty quickly. And
12:32
Speaker 1: I agree with you, there seems to be more value
12:35
Speaker 1: on the Titans. It's kind of it's ironic that after
12:39
Speaker 1: all these years of needing whoever the Patriots faced, Uh,
12:44
Speaker 1: and all the public money and public support on the Patriots,
12:47
Speaker 1: I think most of the casual fans realized that the
12:50
Speaker 1: Patriots had really easy schedule this year. Uh. And outside
12:54
Speaker 1: of you know, the two wins against the Bills, which
12:57
Speaker 1: is probably they're kind of defining wins this year. You
13:01
Speaker 1: look back, they beat the Cowboys, but in retrospect, uh,
13:05
Speaker 1: that that really didn't carry as much weight as it
13:07
Speaker 1: did at the time. Um. The rest of their schedule
13:10
Speaker 1: was filled up with like the NFC East, They played
13:12
Speaker 1: the Giants, they played the Redskins. Uh, they beat the Eagles,
13:16
Speaker 1: but a lot of their wins were against teams like
13:18
Speaker 1: the Jets, and uh, you know, Jets, Giants and Redskins
13:22
Speaker 1: and Brown's not a whole lot of impressive wins. So
13:25
Speaker 1: they do look beatable. And then of course that last
13:28
Speaker 1: weekend against the Dolphins as a huge seventeen point favorites, Uh,
13:33
Speaker 1: that didn't bode well for that neither going into the playoffs. Now,
13:36
Speaker 1: having said all that, you just you always have to
13:40
Speaker 1: kind of be be careful anytime you're betting against the
13:42
Speaker 1: Patriots in the playoffs situation. I agree, I do think
13:47
Speaker 1: there's value in this number, but I'm not going to
13:49
Speaker 1: be one of those people who like this is exactly
13:52
Speaker 1: what I'm talking about at the beginning of the podcast, Like,
13:55
Speaker 1: look at what the public is saying, look at what
13:58
Speaker 1: you just saw from this team. Do you truly believe
14:02
Speaker 1: that the Patriots are as bad as the team that
14:06
Speaker 1: lost to the Dolphins and the Titans are really the
14:11
Speaker 1: team that beat up on the Texans team that wasn't
14:14
Speaker 1: playing any of its starters. Like, that's what you've got
14:16
Speaker 1: to be considering. Like, I think there's value at four
14:19
Speaker 1: and a half because I think the Titan, the Texans,
14:22
Speaker 1: the Patriots are probably not better than a field goal
14:24
Speaker 1: against anybody in the playoffs. But if it got to
14:27
Speaker 1: a field goal, man, I'd be all over the Patriots. Yeah,
14:31
Speaker 1: the numbers critical here, and uh, like I said, we're
14:34
Speaker 1: probably opened a little too high at that number six
14:37
Speaker 1: um that the wives guys, sure they let us know
14:40
Speaker 1: that we were a little high on that um. You know,
14:43
Speaker 1: but you know, you look at what this line would
14:46
Speaker 1: have been at the beginning of the season and what
14:48
Speaker 1: it is now. I think it says a lot about
14:50
Speaker 1: how hot the Titans were the last half of the year.
14:52
Speaker 1: I think I've said it every week, is that it's
14:54
Speaker 1: one of the teams that the Sharp guys had really
14:57
Speaker 1: been riding high on they absolutely love this play his
15:00
Speaker 1: team the last five six weeks of the regular season.
15:03
Speaker 1: And uh, and like I said, the Patriots have looked
15:05
Speaker 1: beat a bold in every single game. So uh, you know,
15:09
Speaker 1: outside of maybe at forty three to nothing win against
15:11
Speaker 1: the Dolphins early in the year, or maybe that first
15:14
Speaker 1: game against the Steelers when when Ben Roethlisberger was still
15:17
Speaker 1: in the game. Um, but outside of that, they've looked beatable,
15:20
Speaker 1: even even in games that they won. So, um, it's
15:25
Speaker 1: gonna be It's gonna be a good one. I think
15:28
Speaker 1: there's one of my games I'm most looking forward to,
15:31
Speaker 1: me to New Orleans at Minnesota. Uh, New Orleans, I'm
15:35
Speaker 1: sorry Minnesota. New Orleans. New Orleans is an eight point favorite.
15:39
Speaker 1: I think I lean Minnesota here, but I don't know
15:41
Speaker 1: a strong attended the Sharp. This is the game with
15:45
Speaker 1: the biggest um split between Sharp guys in the public.
15:49
Speaker 1: The public. It is all over the Saints. I mean
15:52
Speaker 1: the ticket account on this one is about twelve to
15:54
Speaker 1: one right now. Absolutely everybody that's just the casual fans
15:58
Speaker 1: just walking in and just bet Saints. But the Sharp
16:01
Speaker 1: guys have taken the plus eight I just noticed this
16:04
Speaker 1: morning a lot of places went down to seven and
16:06
Speaker 1: a half, which indicates they're getting the vikings of money
16:09
Speaker 1: as well. So our bigger bets are on the Vikings
16:12
Speaker 1: at plus eight and all the little guys are on
16:14
Speaker 1: the Saints at minus eight. So um, I think it's
16:17
Speaker 1: just indicates what you just said. They've got a lean
16:20
Speaker 1: towards the vikings. It's not real strong, but I think
16:23
Speaker 1: the value is probably a little bit more on the
16:25
Speaker 1: plus eight here. Yeah, I think so too. But it's
16:29
Speaker 1: my least favorite. It's my least favorite of all the
16:31
Speaker 1: games on the board. Uh. The other game, the last game.
16:36
Speaker 1: I love this Seattle minus one and a half at Philly.
16:40
Speaker 1: Do you know what I love about this? What I
16:44
Speaker 1: love getting a home dog in the playoffs, a team
16:47
Speaker 1: that nobody is thinking should win anything. Yeah, yeah, that's
16:53
Speaker 1: what I left. Um yeah, this is this is gonna
16:55
Speaker 1: be our biggest game on the board for several reasons. Uh.
17:00
Speaker 1: Number one, everybody sees the Seahawks as a much better team.
17:04
Speaker 1: The casual fan they just see that. You know. The
17:06
Speaker 1: Seahawks had a couple of real close games against the Fortys,
17:11
Speaker 1: winning one losing one. Both games pretty close. Um. Eagles
17:16
Speaker 1: really hadn't. They've been kind of battling injuries all year,
17:19
Speaker 1: They've been up and down. They kind of backed their
17:22
Speaker 1: way into the UH into the playoffs, non impressed of
17:26
Speaker 1: the entire season at all. So there's absolutely no reason
17:29
Speaker 1: for just the general public to like this Eagles team.
17:32
Speaker 1: So it's a big game for that reason. And second,
17:34
Speaker 1: it's the last game of of of the four, which
17:38
Speaker 1: means that all of the liability going from all the
17:41
Speaker 1: other three games, the parley's, the teasers, everything just go
17:45
Speaker 1: into this game, which is just gonna make this game
17:48
Speaker 1: so much bigger than what it is right now, UH
17:50
Speaker 1: and by far will be the biggest of the four games.
17:53
Speaker 1: So we're gonna be huge, huge Eagles fan fans. I
17:56
Speaker 1: just went to to probably about an hour ago. Actually
18:00
Speaker 1: we were at one and a half as well, But
18:02
Speaker 1: for the reason I just indicated, I said, let maybe
18:04
Speaker 1: on the high side, I could actually see this line
18:06
Speaker 1: going to two and a half UM pretty pretty soon
18:10
Speaker 1: during the week. I don't know if it will get
18:11
Speaker 1: up to three, but you could probably grab a three somewhere.
18:15
Speaker 1: If you are an Eagles fan, you want to wait
18:17
Speaker 1: until until Sunday to get that three. Oh my god,
18:21
Speaker 1: are you kidding me? I am so freaking waiting, you
18:25
Speaker 1: know what. I know what's interesting. I started the year
18:28
Speaker 1: with this project to going eleven five. I ended the
18:32
Speaker 1: year going in going eleven and five. And what I
18:34
Speaker 1: did at the end of the year that was the
18:35
Speaker 1: smartest thing I could have done. I waited. I waited
18:39
Speaker 1: as long as I possibly could until Sunday morning to
18:43
Speaker 1: make some of my bets because I felt so good
18:45
Speaker 1: about some lines going in different directions, and it totally
18:48
Speaker 1: made sense. It totally matters. Get honestly, get the best
18:53
Speaker 1: of the number. Scoots. You've been saying it for years.
18:56
Speaker 1: I believe it. I'm gonna wait on the Eagles game.
18:58
Speaker 1: A bet that game plus the I like it all right, Scoos,
19:05
Speaker 1: guess what it is? Time? It is time to play
19:09
Speaker 1: a little scooch roulette. Last week? Uh, I believe I
19:21
Speaker 1: had the Dolphins last week? Or did you have the Dolphins?
19:23
Speaker 1: I had the Dolphins. I forgot who I had. Patrick,
19:28
Speaker 1: you were going back and forth. I forgot who you
19:30
Speaker 1: had to Patrick, yet I had Houston. That was terrible.
19:36
Speaker 1: That was terrible. After your talent yourself, after that huge
19:42
Speaker 1: build up, that's who you had last week? All right, scoog,
19:45
Speaker 1: guess what you get to go first? You weren't last week.
19:48
Speaker 1: I get to go first. I'm going to take the
19:50
Speaker 1: Vikings plus that eight point good. You know what. That's
19:54
Speaker 1: the game that I was least interested in forw me once,
20:00
Speaker 1: shame on me, through me twice, Shame on you. I
20:04
Speaker 1: have been fooled by the Texans eight thousand times. Yet
20:09
Speaker 1: I can't quit Texas. I'm going with Houston minus two
20:13
Speaker 1: and a half in Scuci who let round one of
20:15
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Okay, Bob Scucci. I want to wish you
20:21
Speaker 1: and yours whom I adore, a very happy new year.
20:26
Speaker 1: Thanks again for a wonderful, thoughtful, and exciting NFL season
20:31
Speaker 1: of handicapping and podcasting. I had fun. Happy new Year
20:35
Speaker 1: to you and yours and everyone out there. All right,
20:39
Speaker 1: all right? Coming up right next after this, we are
20:42
Speaker 1: going to bring in Simon Hunter, Darn Revel. We're going
20:44
Speaker 1: to review our attempt to win two hunt to win
20:48
Speaker 1: one point five million dollars in the west Gate last
20:50
Speaker 1: Vegas Super Contest, as promised, bringing back Simon Hunter professional
20:55
Speaker 1: better Darren Revel, my colleague, friend and sometimes a nemesis
21:00
Speaker 1: at the Action Network. All season long, Simon was on.
21:03
Speaker 1: One of my favorite stories of my career is the
21:06
Speaker 1: fact that Simon Hunter just tweeted at me and said, Hey,
21:10
Speaker 1: I think I can help you in your super contest.
21:12
Speaker 1: I called him up. He has a great story. I'm
21:15
Speaker 1: a sucker for stories. I like the guy. We had
21:18
Speaker 1: a great conversation. I said, come on the podcast every week.
21:21
Speaker 1: Simon took time out of as busy schedule as a
21:23
Speaker 1: professional better to come on the podcast and give Darren
21:26
Speaker 1: and I expert advice. I got so much positive reaction
21:30
Speaker 1: from people about Simon, like becoming more and more valuable
21:34
Speaker 1: week to week on the podcast. It was fantastic. Um.
21:38
Speaker 1: We were trying to win one point five million dollars
21:41
Speaker 1: in the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest. It didn't happen.
21:44
Speaker 1: We tried to cash, just win a little bit of money.
21:47
Speaker 1: Winner to the final weekend, probably needed to go for
21:49
Speaker 1: one of five and oh we went for in one.
21:53
Speaker 1: We finished one and a half games out of the money.
21:57
Speaker 1: Still a value and effort. We finished forty something like, Um, Simon, listen,
22:06
Speaker 1: I like, we owe you so Darren and I owe
22:08
Speaker 1: you so much. Gratitude, thank you for doing this all year.
22:15
Speaker 1: And now a word from a wise guy with Simon Hunter. Yeah, man,
22:22
Speaker 1: it was really fun and uh, it was funny that
22:25
Speaker 1: like I I do it with other pros, like we
22:27
Speaker 1: do a super contest together, so like we do a
22:30
Speaker 1: rotation where like you know, two guys picked two, two
22:32
Speaker 1: guys picked one, then one guy picked one and we
22:34
Speaker 1: actually finished above us. So it's just funny, like a
22:37
Speaker 1: group of pros, like the one guy's pro in college,
22:39
Speaker 1: other guys does pro baseball. Um, we actually beat my group. Um.
22:45
Speaker 1: And then in Gold we finished like two back, like
22:49
Speaker 1: one back of the leader who the guy just had
22:53
Speaker 1: a great final week just like us, like he went
22:55
Speaker 1: four and one. So I unfortune just like you guys,
22:59
Speaker 1: I got bust. I got busted this year for super
23:02
Speaker 1: contests no money. But that's why we play the game, buddy.
23:05
Speaker 1: It's super fun. Now Gold is sort of the elevator,
23:09
Speaker 1: so people understand Gold is like the next level super contest. Um,
23:14
Speaker 1: what's the buy in for that? Right? Where gold is
23:19
Speaker 1: it's winner take all, so it's it's a big, big
23:24
Speaker 1: money pot where I think it was five thousand this year,
23:27
Speaker 1: and basically there's like Adeen of Us. So I would
23:33
Speaker 1: say like twenty to thirty guys in it or just
23:35
Speaker 1: you know Joe Joe, public guys who got money and
23:38
Speaker 1: they're just trying to have fun with it. And then
23:40
Speaker 1: the rest are just really good pro groups, Like the
23:43
Speaker 1: group that won this year was a pro group. And
23:46
Speaker 1: then with the Super Contest, I think the guys that
23:48
Speaker 1: won were two buddies from Nebraska. Um. So that's what's
23:51
Speaker 1: so great about the Super Contests is that you just
23:54
Speaker 1: got to get on a hot run. And just like
23:57
Speaker 1: that's where we're done this year, and I'm going through
23:59
Speaker 1: all our picks. There's just so many games. You go
24:01
Speaker 1: back to, wow, we just have gotten two different games, right,
24:04
Speaker 1: we would have been in the money. So it's it's
24:06
Speaker 1: tough when you're that close you don't get anything. It
24:08
Speaker 1: is so crushing. And I can think of the two games, Darren,
24:10
Speaker 1: I want to bring you in for a second. I
24:12
Speaker 1: know you're family. I could think of the week, Chad,
24:16
Speaker 1: all right, let's talk about it, go ahead and say it,
24:18
Speaker 1: go ahead and do it. There was one week I
24:21
Speaker 1: think it was probably Week fourteen, uh, three weeks ago. Yeah,
24:28
Speaker 1: and I gave my five picks and you decided you
24:32
Speaker 1: were going to say that they were terrible, and you
24:36
Speaker 1: didn't horrible or terrible, I'm not sure the exact word.
24:40
Speaker 1: And they went and they went four and one. So
24:44
Speaker 1: you're saying, if I hadn't have judged you that week,
24:48
Speaker 1: we would have won. Well, I don't know, because because
24:52
Speaker 1: because for most for most of you know, this has
24:55
Speaker 1: been a great experience for me. I mean, this is
24:57
Speaker 1: really my first season of betting football like this, both
25:02
Speaker 1: on the side and through the Super Contest. And I
25:05
Speaker 1: was really skeptical of of as a square myself. I
25:09
Speaker 1: was really skeptical of sharps. And I was like, oh,
25:12
Speaker 1: come on, they just they just take the other side
25:14
Speaker 1: of the publish just to say they're cool and they're pro.
25:18
Speaker 1: And and what I learned through Simon and you is
25:22
Speaker 1: that the reason why sharps are sharps is not necessarily
25:26
Speaker 1: because they know more. It's that when the public is
25:30
Speaker 1: on one side, obviously, especially recency bias, there is value
25:37
Speaker 1: in the other side, which is often where the sharps are.
25:41
Speaker 1: And so I understood. I played myself, I was fifty seven,
25:48
Speaker 1: you know, on my own, and I really learned about
25:52
Speaker 1: playing against recency bias that you know, kind of just
25:57
Speaker 1: makes the public do what they do. So I learned
26:00
Speaker 1: a lot too. So I want to thank you guys.
26:02
Speaker 1: You know what I want to say. You want to say, Darren,
26:04
Speaker 1: how many games did I save you from this year
26:07
Speaker 1: where we would have been so much worse off? Correct?
26:10
Speaker 1: Let's talk about it that four one week where I
26:13
Speaker 1: said they were horrible. Let's talk about all the games.
26:15
Speaker 1: You're like, oh, I gotta go with this one. I'm like, Darren,
26:18
Speaker 1: that is that is true? That is true. That is true.
26:20
Speaker 1: That is true. You guys want to get through the
26:23
Speaker 1: list of our best and worst calls? Yes, go all right,
26:28
Speaker 1: so we'll just start with the worst. We get that
26:29
Speaker 1: out of the way. So it is hilarious going through
26:33
Speaker 1: these picks now that the season is over. I loved
26:36
Speaker 1: the Bengals Week two plus one against San France at home.
26:41
Speaker 1: Think about that. I thought I thought there was value
26:44
Speaker 1: on the Bengals plus one against San France. You know what, though,
26:48
Speaker 1: I like looking back looking back, it's not it wasn't
26:52
Speaker 1: a bad pick. Like the Bengals showed up and week
26:55
Speaker 1: you liked them in Week one, right right? And you
26:59
Speaker 1: guys wouldn't take it right, and like they actually didn't
27:03
Speaker 1: play horribly in that game, and like Week one is
27:07
Speaker 1: always tricky, but I don't think that was a horrible pick.
27:09
Speaker 1: Like looking back, of course, the Bengals literally the worst
27:11
Speaker 1: thing in the NFL, the Niners one of the two
27:14
Speaker 1: best teams, and so of course it's horrible you're taking
27:17
Speaker 1: them at plus one, But looking back, I don't think
27:19
Speaker 1: that was a bad pick at all. Right, Right, but
27:22
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, you just love looking back where oh
27:24
Speaker 1: my god, i'd same frame minus one against the Bengals,
27:27
Speaker 1: Like that's that's like a layoff. So it's just point.
27:30
Speaker 1: And then for Darren, Darren had a couple bad plays,
27:34
Speaker 1: but for the biggest one, we're gonna go with. We
27:36
Speaker 1: had one week we were five and oh that was
27:38
Speaker 1: when Darren wasn't on the show, and I like, I love,
27:44
Speaker 1: I love the Chargers and they were playing the Green
27:48
Speaker 1: Bay Packers. At them, I think they're plus three and
27:50
Speaker 1: a half, and Darren wouldn't wouldn't have it. He said, no, no, no,
27:54
Speaker 1: we're not taking the charges here. That's a dumb pick.
27:56
Speaker 1: Let's put the Bucks in and the Bucks end up
27:59
Speaker 1: pushing overtime. So that was instead of having our only
28:02
Speaker 1: five and oh, we grew up four oh and one.
28:06
Speaker 1: All right, So that was the game right there. No,
28:10
Speaker 1: don't seem here with the same friend. Chad's were sick
28:13
Speaker 1: of the year by four. It was he loved the
28:15
Speaker 1: Panthers plus five and a half versu San France, where
28:19
Speaker 1: I think they end up. I did. That was the guy.
28:24
Speaker 1: This is funny. That was the Panthers coming out of
28:26
Speaker 1: a bye and Kyle Allen had been playing really well
28:31
Speaker 1: and the Niners were entering into the back half of
28:33
Speaker 1: the year where they looked a little bit vulnerable, and
28:37
Speaker 1: I thought the Panther's defense was better than it was.
28:40
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey was sort of in the middle of his streak,
28:44
Speaker 1: and my logic was, if any team was going to
28:48
Speaker 1: beat the Niners, because they were undefeated at that point,
28:52
Speaker 1: it was going to be this Panthers team, which people
28:54
Speaker 1: were underestimating. And I believe instead of the Panthers coming
28:58
Speaker 1: out of that bye and like go out a tear,
29:01
Speaker 1: they came out of that by and turned into one
29:02
Speaker 1: of the worst teams in the NFL. Well, it's actually funny.
29:06
Speaker 1: We actually didn't give up on them, So I'll go
29:07
Speaker 1: to our best calls. Literally, I think it's two weeks later,
29:10
Speaker 1: which is even now the season is over. You look
29:12
Speaker 1: back and it's just crazy. But we we found a
29:15
Speaker 1: little spot where this this Titans. The Titans have had
29:17
Speaker 1: a crazy run here, I think they've won um seven
29:21
Speaker 1: of nine in the year, and we picked the Panthers
29:25
Speaker 1: minus three and a half verst of Titans. That was
29:27
Speaker 1: your that was your best call where it was a
29:29
Speaker 1: great spot where the Titans had just beaten I think
29:31
Speaker 1: the Chiefs they're coming in and the Panthers, who were
29:34
Speaker 1: looking terrible, that's the last one they've had the whole year.
29:38
Speaker 1: So we got we had a good spot there. The
29:39
Speaker 1: Pants clearly have a genius. So Panthers taken out the Titans.
29:45
Speaker 1: Who would have thought that? And then for Darren's best call,
29:49
Speaker 1: Darren loved, he loved the Jets plus seven versus the
29:53
Speaker 1: Cowboys and they end up winning outright. What about Wait,
29:57
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not sure here to shoot my horn,
29:59
Speaker 1: but what if out my identification on the fact that
30:02
Speaker 1: the Dolphins were two separate teams and that oddsmakers were
30:07
Speaker 1: really like not treating them like the second team that
30:10
Speaker 1: they became under Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'd be like, I got
30:14
Speaker 1: like four or five weeks on on the Dolphins being
30:18
Speaker 1: the New Age Dolphins. Well, Darren jumped the gun there.
30:21
Speaker 1: I haven't written down our best teams for us individually
30:24
Speaker 1: and super contests, so darn picking four picking the Dolphins
30:30
Speaker 1: and picking against them won seven and one, which is
30:34
Speaker 1: really really good. In the super contests. My best was
30:38
Speaker 1: Verson against picking four, and then picking against was the Titans.
30:43
Speaker 1: I went six and two, and then Chad was really
30:47
Speaker 1: good at knowing when to take the Rams and when
30:48
Speaker 1: to fade the Rams. You went eight and three with
30:52
Speaker 1: the Rams this year in our super contests, so we
30:55
Speaker 1: were really good. We did really good and when picking
30:58
Speaker 1: the Rams, and then it's kind of looking at our
31:00
Speaker 1: worst teams. Um, we could not get right with the Saints.
31:06
Speaker 1: We we won three straight with Teddy Bridgewaters, and then
31:09
Speaker 1: every other time of the Saints we went oh five.
31:12
Speaker 1: So we went We ended the year three and five
31:14
Speaker 1: with the Saints, and I think it's kind of funny
31:18
Speaker 1: that you look back, I thought we had done horrible
31:20
Speaker 1: with the Bucks. We actually finished with a ringing winning record.
31:23
Speaker 1: Picking with and against the Bucks. We went six and two,
31:27
Speaker 1: four and against the Bucks. So it's it's one of
31:30
Speaker 1: the things where people always saying, why do you guys
31:33
Speaker 1: take these ugly, ugly teams all this other stuff, But
31:36
Speaker 1: like when I went through our numbers, our most profitable
31:38
Speaker 1: quarterbacks were Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Listen,
31:45
Speaker 1: if you're gonna bet the NFL, you're gonna bet bad
31:47
Speaker 1: teams and sketchy quarterbacks. You're not gonna win bet. And
31:51
Speaker 1: Tom Brady and Drew Brees and sort of the guy
31:55
Speaker 1: and Patrick Mahomes, you're just not. I learned that. Yeah,
31:59
Speaker 1: I learned that for sure. There's no such thing as
32:02
Speaker 1: a bad game. That those are opportunities, right, And that's
32:05
Speaker 1: one of those where early in the season, early in
32:08
Speaker 1: the season, it's good to do that. We're back you
32:10
Speaker 1: you always want to back usually the better team, Like
32:12
Speaker 1: I think we had a really bad one. Was like,
32:14
Speaker 1: oh yeah, the week one we took the Jaguars against
32:17
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and everything went wrong that the Chiefs destroyed
32:21
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. So early in the year you can get
32:24
Speaker 1: away with taking the good teams. But like like Darren
32:26
Speaker 1: was saying, when you start seeing the value, like we're
32:29
Speaker 1: not always gonna take downder dog like we took stand
32:31
Speaker 1: friend this week. They were a big public favorite, but
32:34
Speaker 1: that's just because that number was good. But there's other
32:37
Speaker 1: times where there's just so much value, Like just this
32:40
Speaker 1: past weekend, we were joking about the Dolphins. Why were
32:43
Speaker 1: the Dolphins fifteen a half point underdog to the Patriots.
32:46
Speaker 1: So that's one of those where he's right. You can
32:48
Speaker 1: spot these values as the year goes along with these
32:50
Speaker 1: bad teams, well even with the even with the teams
32:55
Speaker 1: like the Chiefs, I think they opened at seven signing
32:58
Speaker 1: you and I talked about in the Castle last a week.
33:00
Speaker 1: I got them at seven and a half. They raced
33:03
Speaker 1: up like I don't remember where they closed, but I
33:05
Speaker 1: know they were closing above nine. Um, not the Titan
33:09
Speaker 1: I'm talking about. I'm talking about the Chiefs alright, again
33:13
Speaker 1: the best of the number that last week. But you're
33:15
Speaker 1: right about the Titans too, Like the Titans opened at
33:17
Speaker 1: three and a half, like by Sunday that game was
33:20
Speaker 1: at seven and a half and like yeah, and we
33:24
Speaker 1: joked about that that like we were unsure to take
33:27
Speaker 1: him or not because we didn't know Bill O'Brien was
33:28
Speaker 1: going to do and they said, what are we thinking? Here?
33:30
Speaker 1: Are the Chiefs really gonna lose to the Chargers? So
33:32
Speaker 1: thank god we put the Titans in the contest, because
33:34
Speaker 1: I think that line closed at ten minus ten and
33:37
Speaker 1: a half before kickoff. You know what I also learned
33:40
Speaker 1: from you guys. I the way I used to bet
33:43
Speaker 1: would be I like this team, and now I know
33:46
Speaker 1: and this this could be just obvious, but now I know,
33:50
Speaker 1: and I'm good at staying away if the if the
33:53
Speaker 1: number you know, moves too much or is not right.
33:56
Speaker 1: I think before I said I want to watch this game,
34:00
Speaker 1: it's gonna make it more exciting, and so I'm gonna
34:02
Speaker 1: bet on them. I pay much more attention to movement.
34:05
Speaker 1: Now look what we did, and that's what things to where. Um,
34:14
Speaker 1: you can trust line movement, but sometimes sharps will do
34:18
Speaker 1: line movement just a third off steam. Like I might
34:20
Speaker 1: be going in early this week. I might have been
34:22
Speaker 1: betting the Bills, but I love the Texas, so I
34:25
Speaker 1: bet I might just like these other sharps, We're betting
34:27
Speaker 1: the Bills down to get the Texans up the number
34:29
Speaker 1: we want. Yeah, I get I get that. Yeah, you
34:31
Speaker 1: can't always trust the Steam, but I do I do
34:34
Speaker 1: think that is a huge part of to like know
34:36
Speaker 1: what you're looking at. Just was watching that. Boys. Listen, Simon,
34:42
Speaker 1: I feel like you and I together we raised a
34:44
Speaker 1: fine young better in Darren Revel who really came around
34:50
Speaker 1: and learned a lot. Simon. Like I said, we are
34:54
Speaker 1: forever in your debt. We are all the three of us.
34:56
Speaker 1: Are gonna go celebrate in a couple of weeks. Um,
34:58
Speaker 1: We're gonna go to dinner. We'll report back. I'm sure
35:00
Speaker 1: Darren will both instagram it and it um. I want
35:06
Speaker 1: you boys to have a great new year. It was
35:08
Speaker 1: a fantastic season. I enjoyed doing it with both of you.
35:10
Speaker 1: This has been The Favorites from the Action Network. Another
35:14
Speaker 1: season in the books. I want to thank my season
35:17
Speaker 1: long guests, Bob Scucci, Simon Hunter, Darren Revel. You can
35:21
Speaker 1: download the podcast from Apple podcasts from Radio dot Com
35:26
Speaker 1: search the Favorites wherever you get your podcasts. Until next time,
35:31
Speaker 1: I love you.