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Navigating High Stakes: AI Growth Meets Oil Inflation · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello everyone , and welcome back to another episode of the Spy Trader !
• 0:04
  I am your host , Penny Pincher , and it is currently 2:30 pm on Monday , May 4th , 2026 , here in the Pacific time zone .
• 0:14
  We have a lot to unpack today as the market navigates some pretty high stakes .
• 0:19
  Even though we are coming off a massive April with major indices near alltime highs , today is definitely a waitandsee kind of session .
• 0:28
  The S&P 500 , which we track through the SPY ETF , is currently trading around 7,200 , which is down about zero point four percent from its recent peak .
• 0:40
  The Dow Jones is taking an even bigger hit , dropping nearly one percent to approximately 49,000 as cyclical stocks feel the heat , while the Nasdaq100 , or QQQ , is holding steady and is basically flat for the day .
• 0:56
  The big story right now is the geopolitical tension in the Middle East , specifically the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz .
• 1:04
  This has pushed Brent Crude oil prices up to a staggering 114 dollars per barrel .
• 1:10
  This surge is great news for energy producers like Occidental Petroleum , ticker OXY , and Diamondback Energy , ticker FANG , making the XLE Energy ETF our standout performer today .
• 1:23
  However , these high oil prices are sparking inflation fears , which might mean the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates between 3.5 and 3.75 percent for longer than we would like .
• 1:35
  Speaking of the Fed , Chair Jerome Powell is stepping down on May 15th , and the market is already looking toward Kevin Warsh as his likely successor .
• 1:45
  In the tech world , it is all about the giants .
• 1:49
  Apple , or AAPL , recently crushed expectations with 111.2 billion dollars in revenue and a massive 100 billion dollar share buyback authorization that is keeping the stock floor solid .
• 2:03
  Microsoft is seeing incredible 40 percent growth in its Azure cloud business , but investors are a bit nervous about the 190 billion dollars they are planning to spend on AI infrastructure this year .
• 2:18
  Meanwhile , Nvidia remains the AI bellwether at near 200 dollars a share , even with some export restrictions to China remaining a risk .
• 2:27
  And big news for Palantir , ticker PLTR — they reported earnings today and beat both revenue and earnings per share estimates , proving their software is in high demand for the Department of Defense .
• 2:39
  So , what is the move for your portfolio ?
• 2:42
  For the broad market SPY , we are recommending a Hold .
• 2:47
  Do not chase these record highs ; instead , wait for a three to five percent consolidation before adding new capital .
• 2:55
  If you want tech exposure , look to buy Apple on the dips because that massive buyback makes it a safe haven within the sector .
• 3:02
  For a hedge against the ongoing Middle East conflict , we recommend a tactical buy of the XLE energy ETF .
• 3:11
  Also , consider accumulating international stocks through the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF , ticker VXUS , as they are actually outperforming the U.S.
• 3:22
  markets so far in 2026 .
• 3:25
  Finally , keep an eye on gold through the GLD ETF , but maybe avoid it for now as it is losing its safehaven battle to assets with higher yields .
• 3:36
  The market is currently in a tugofwar between AIdriven earnings growth and energydriven inflation , so stay invested but focus on quality and smart hedges to weather the storm .
• 3:48
  That is all for this update on the Spy Trader !