Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 143 - 10/17/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 143 - 10/17/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 143 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Thirsty Thursday. We got a lot going on in the
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sports betting world. Of course, our work week is
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winding down. We got a big Friday tomorrow,
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which hopefully we'll have a biting UFC play for you as we
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like to unveil every Friday for the Friday pod.
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But before we get to Friday, before we get to the weekend,
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another big slate of college football and NFL on tap.
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We got a big Thursday hopefully take to take advantage of for
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tonight. I got a 5 pack of sweats that
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I'm excited to share with you, including two NFL bets for
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tonight. We got a big Thursday Night
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Football game, Broncos and New Orleans Saints.
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I got to play on the side as well as a player prop that I'll
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be playing for tonight. And then college football, I
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noticed a very good contrarian play tonight with a little bit
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of movement lines kind of come back a little bit, but overall
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kind of a sharp line freeze. So I'll be taking the points
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with this team. And then also the NHL, see if we
1:26
can continue our our NHL hot streak as we've won three
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straight. And then I do have a play for
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you in Major League Baseball. Big, big doubleheader tonight,
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Yankees and Guardians, Dodgers and Mets.
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I'm looking at one team to hopefully get a win here for
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tonight for us. So overall, 5 pack.
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And as you guys know, realistic expectations are important when
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you're betting on sports. I always see like you know on
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Twitter and stuff it's like let's go 5 and O no let we know
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betting's hard. Let's try to go three and two
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eke out a profit in a winning day.
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Now, looking back toward last night before we dive into our
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sweats for today, another winning day.
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Second straight here 2 and 1 + 0.48 units.
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So 1/2 unit. We'll grab it, we'll put it in
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our pocket and we'll reinvest it today.
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But a couple big wins, including my favorite game of the night,
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Western Kentucky baby and a lot of people tell me Sam Houston
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State was there was the best bets.
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Yeah, Sam Houston said don't crush what Doug Western
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Kentucky, the Hilltoppers, but no go tops got it done.
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And why did they get it done? Well, they played great, but
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also they had a great sharp line move.
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Remember public was all over Sam Houston.
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But Sam Houston was -3 go all the way down to 1 1/2 or even
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one that road reverse line movement on that short Rd. dog
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system match. Western Kentucky rolls wins 31
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to 14. Big hit for us with the
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Hilltoppers. Then the Maple Leafs again, I
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mentioned hockey being glad it's back.
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Well, we won three straight. Let's see if we can keep it
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going. The Leafs big steam -160 I think
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got them closer to like -176 I think close as high as like -190
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so good move there. 162. And we're looking at possibly a
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three and O night. Unfortunately, Sabrina Ionescu
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or UNESCU, who if you remember during the NBA All Star game had
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a a battle of the the the sexes there male female 3 point
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shooting contest, which is pretty cool.
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But she had played Steph Curry in a three-point contest.
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Well, she hit a huge 3 to end the game last night and win the
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game with basically no time left 80 to 77 win.
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Now why was that frustrating? Because the game was tied 7777.
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If she misses that shot, it goes to overtime.
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We cash our over 161. What happens she she nails it
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good for her bad for us. It lands 157.
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So I was really hoping she'd miss it, but swish dagger killed
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us, which again, I was hoping for overtime and catch the over.
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But either way guys, I'll take a two in 1/2 unit night every day
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of the week. So let's see if we can continue
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our hot streak. Let's try to get a third
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straight winning day for today. So I want to start off with most
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heavily back game of the night. You guys know what it is
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Thursday Night Football. We have the New Orleans Saints
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hosting the Denver Broncos and this is an interesting match up
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for a couple reasons. A lot of injuries, a lot of line
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movement. So setting the stage here we
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have the Broncos three and three.
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They just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end.
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They lost to the Chargers 2316 last week in the epic week of
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just favorites and chalk favorites rolling Chargers
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covered that number as a three-point Rd. favorite.
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You know the Saints two and four actually started 2 and O they've
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now lost four straight. Just got rolled by the Bucks 51
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to 27. Did not cover as a 3 1/2 point
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home dog. So what do we see across the
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market here? Big movement toward the Broncos.
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This game open with a very early Saints opener of Saints -2 1/2
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at home. But then we found out Derek Carr
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will probably miss this game. Saints have a ton of injuries.
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This line immediately, quickly and really no buyback move
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toward Denver. So Denver went from a very, very
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early plus 2 1/2 Rd. dog now all the way to -2 1/2 or -3 on the
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road. So big dog to fave line move.
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Obviously injuries have played a role in this line move.
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We'll get to that in a second. It's not just car, it's a bunch
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of other important players for the Saints that will likely miss
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this game. But I do like the bet split here
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for the Broncos. It's not like Denver's getting
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7080% of bets. Public is relatively split right
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now. Broncos are only getting 51% of
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spread bets, but 72% of spread dollars.
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So a good low bets, higher dollars bet split along with
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that line move in their favor. The pros also seem to be
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targeting Denver on the money line.
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That's where I'm going to go, guys.
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Now you're hovering around -2 1/2 or three, Broncos win by one
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or two, you lose, Broncos win by three, you push.
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This is one of those games where I'm just going to pay a little
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bit more of a premium to know that, hey, I just got to win the
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game. Like again, you'd hate to see
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them win by one or two and you lose a three.
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That happened to me when I was early in my sports betting
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career. I would just see, oh, money
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lines -150 -3 is only -110 I want to, I want to get more on
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the back end. So let me take the -110 which
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again is great if it cashes, but if it doesn't, you would have
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won with the money line, lose with a spread.
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So it's a money line play for me.
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I'm going with the move with Denver with a good bet split.
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I got the Broncos on the money line.
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I found a book at -145 earlier this morning also wrote about
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this game for visen.com. So you can check out the sharp
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report that I wrote. I always tweeted out from my
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Twitter account or X account as it's now called at Josh under
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score Insights. But a big dog to fave line move
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toward Denver. We have a great bet split in
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terms of the money line only. Let me double check this for
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you. Only 42% of money line bets are
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on Denver, but 74% of money line dollars.
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So similar to that spread split, a great money line split for
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Denver just to win the game. Then you get to Thursday Night
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Football favorites again. Thursday football is weird.
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It's a short week, it's a quick turn around for both teams.
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But if you just go chalk the favorite on Thursday night, they
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do very well. Straight up, Thursday Night
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Football favorites are 277. That's a 72% win rate, 6% ROI.
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Since 2004, they're five and one chalk on Thursday night so far
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this year and since 2021 they're 46 and 1674%.
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So home Rd. you, you see a little bit better home versus
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Rd. but overall both winning system matches to go chalk on
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Thursday night. Now dig a little deeper.
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Rd. favorites have been very, very good this year.
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Public likes favorites, but they're also wary of playing a
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road team because they really overvalue home field advantage.
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But if you look at Rd. favorites like the Broncos here, they're
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20 and 9 against the spread, 69% this year.
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On the money line, they're 24 and 777% in Denver.
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I'm going to give a big edge on defense as well.
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It's going to play a role in my player prop here in a second.
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But Denver's only giving up sixteen points per game.
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Defensively, New Orleans is giving up 24 1/2 points per
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game. Saints are also giving up 396
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yards per game of total offense. That's the most in the NFL.
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Cherry on top, land Clark. Who's the lead ref.
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He is a good Rd. ref historically 55% against the
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spread. The Broncos additional value as
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a non conference favorite. So Denver AFC, New Orleans NFC
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non conference matchup take the favorite.
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That lack of familiarity typically benefits the better
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team. Now we get to the injuries.
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Big reason for the move toward Denver is no Derek Card tonight,
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but also Crystal Lavey is out. Their number one wide receiver,
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Rasheed Shaheed, their number two wide receiver Taysom Hill is
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out. Pete Werner is out a line
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starting linebacker. Cesar Ruiz, one of their
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starting lineman is out. You're going to get Spencer
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Rattler. Remember he was on Oklahoma and
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South Carolina, a fifth round pick rookie tonight.
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And then also, I'm going to give a little bit of a motivational
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edge toward Denver because Sean Payton member had all the
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success with Drew Brees and the Saints for many years.
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He's going back to New Orleans for the first time as an
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opposing head coach. So maybe, maybe he has a lot of
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Intel on New Orleans, Intel on Dennis Allen, the opposing
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coach, but really wants to win this game and say you never
9:02
should have fired me. In terms of the total, we have
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seen it remain relatively stagnant, open around 37 and a
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half, 37. It's pretty much stayed there.
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I would lean under a little bit. You're only getting 35% bets,
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45% dollars on the under. And again, a lot of these, if
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you're going to play the under 37 1/2 under -115 try to get the
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hook. 37 is a relative key number, a 20 to 17 game.
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Again, you want to cash with the hook, but also prime time
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unders. They're 11 and 10 this year, but
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they're 59% since 2019, when the total's less than 40, a low
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total. The under is 6 and five this
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year, 56% the last two years. So I'll lean under my official
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bet here, guys. I'm going Denver to win the damn
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game -150 basically on the money line and for a player prop, I'm
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going to go Bo Nicks over passing yards over 194 1/2
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passing yards. Can Bo Nicks in the Dome get us
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195 yards? I'm hoping so #1 Bo Nicks has
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gone over this number in four of his last five games.
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It's not a play just on Knicks. It's a play against New Orleans.
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The Saints are giving up 262 passing yards per game.
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That's 29th in the NFL, one of the worst passing defenses.
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Only the Vikings, Ravens and Jags have given up more yardage
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in the air. Now we dig a little deeper.
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The Saints have given up more than 194 1/2 passing yards in
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every game this year. Last year they gave up 325 to
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Baker Mayfield. A week before that, 331 to
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Mahomes, 238 to Cousins, 311 to Jalen Hurts, 293 to DAC.
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And as bad as Bryce Young was, he threw for 200 against New
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Orleans. So literally every quarterback
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has gone over this number against the Saints.
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Bow Knicks is again gotten better each week as he's
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developing with Denver. He's gone over in four of his
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last five. And then cherry on top, it's
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that's the Superdome, you know, there's no weather, there's no
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wind. It's a controlled environment.
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Should bode well for the passing game.
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And a fast track, hopefully 4 yards after the catch.
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So I'm going to go Denver to win the game -150 and Bonex to go
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over 194 1/2 passing yards. By the way, Rhythm, our friends
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at Rhythm are predicting Bonex with two O 7.7 passing yards.
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So a nice little cushion there toward Bonex.
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So Knicks over 194 1/2 Denver to win the damn game.
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Now let's go over to some college football, see if we can
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keep it rolling here in college. 1 matchup I found for tonight
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that caught my eye. It is a 7:00 game Georgia State
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against Marshall. Now this one jumped out to me
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for a couple reasons. Number one, this is a really
11:46
lopsided play. So if you look at the current
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breakdown here, let me give you some background first.
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The Georgia State comes into this one with a two and three
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record. They're coming off a 2114 lost
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Old Dominion, Marshall's three and three.
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They had a big lead against Georgia Southern and and lost
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that 124 to 23. So what are we seeing across the
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market here? Well, this game opened Marshall
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around a nine point home favorite and early in the week.
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Basically, some of the early move was toward Marshall, like
12:17
Marshall got up to -9 1/2. And that's made sense to me
12:21
because Marshall is a big public play tonight.
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Marshall is getting 68% of spread bets.
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So public is just saying Marshall's going to roll win by
12:30
double digits or more. However they open -9 they get up
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to -9 1/2, even though they're getting two out of three bets,
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nearly three out of four bets. We actually saw this line get
12:42
all the way down to Marshall -8 even earlier today or, or, or
12:47
last night basically. So I think even one book might
12:50
have even gotten down to 7 1/2. So all that movement, 9 1/2,
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Marshall all the way down to seven and a half, eight.
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Now we did see some buy back today.
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This line is now back to Marshall -9.
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Some books are now Marshall -9 1/2.
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So if you think about it this way, basically off the opener,
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you open around 9, you get up to 9 1/2, you're getting a huge
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majority of bets. So this is the public play in
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this game tonight will be on ESPN 2.
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So heavily bet matchup. We're basically looking at a
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line freeze, everyone playing Marshall.
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But we're pretty much back to where we opened.
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It's not like Marshall, you know, open -9 and now they're
13:24
-10 -, 11 -, 12. It's pretty much stayed where
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it's at. And if you look at all the moves
13:28
in between, they've actually been moving toward the Georgia
13:31
State side. So in terms of this line freeze
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in a shop for the best line opportunity, the key to me is
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find the hook on the 9 1/2. Again, you lose by 9 cover with
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the 9 1/2. This reminds me of Kennesaw
13:42
State the other night, who again we got the 9 1/2.
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They lose by 9. You cover the number, but that
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is available right now at both FanDuel and ESPN bet, so I
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jumped on the 9 1/2. You can pick whichever book you
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want there, but aside from Georgia State being contrarian,
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only getting 32% of spread bets, they're getting 53% of spread
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dollars. So that kind of speaks to that.
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That line freeze opportunity here.
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Again, why isn't the the line steamed higher to Marshall if
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they're the big popular bet tonight?
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There's also a conference game in the Sunbelt and if you look
14:15
at the Sunbelt fun belt taking the dog since 2020 is 55%
14:20
against the spread. So hopefully a dog for us barks
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tonight with Georgia State, some correlative betting value here.
14:25
This is a relatively low total 51 1/2 and we're getting
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hopefully with the hook Georgia State plus 9 1/2.
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So you're getting a near double digit dog and a relatively low
14:35
total game 51 1/2. So basically with that lower and
14:38
total, I say it all the time, but like 51 1/2, that's a high
14:41
NFL total college, not very high.
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You routinely see college totals as you guys know, 60s, even a
14:47
size like 70. So for your motto, expected
14:50
points scored harder for Marshall as a big favorite to
14:53
cover the number. Then you dig a little bit
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deeper. I got some conflicting info.
14:57
I was reached researching the quarterbacks.
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It sounds like we don't really know who's going to start at
15:01
quarterback for either team like Georgia State.
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I thought it was going to be this, this kid, Christian Value,
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who I don't know why they might sit him, but he's thrown for 256
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passing yards per game. Zach Gibson might start instead.
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He's a senior. He used to start at Akron.
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He came in for Value last week and he went six of six.
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So I was reading that maybe he gets to start tonight.
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But if you look at Marshall, their starting quarterback was
15:26
Cole Pennington. That sounds familiar.
15:28
Marshall and a Pennington, Chad Pennington's kid, he's out for
15:32
the year. So you're already on your second
15:33
quarterback Stone Earl was only thrown for 126 passing yards per
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game. And I was reading reports that
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maybe this other kid, Braylon Braxton might be the starting
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quarterback. So whole point being, even
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though we don't really know who the quarterbacks are, to me, if
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you don't know who the QBs are and you're already on your
15:50
second or third string quarterback as the favorite with
15:53
Marshall, you know, are you going to be able to put up
15:55
enough offense to cover that number?
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I'm I'm I'm questioning that, but you add it all up here,
16:00
guys. I did notice a rhythm model here
16:03
had the spread at Marshall minus 8.9.
16:07
So pretty much right on the number here, which again, that
16:10
hook could be critical. Again, it's available at FanDuel
16:13
and ESPN. Bet jumping on the hook.
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This is your number one contrarian play of the night.
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Little bit of a line freeze. I'm going JA State, Georgia
16:20
State plus 9 1/2. Keep on cruising.
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Next bet for you. Let's see if we can keep it
16:25
rolling here with the NHL as we started O and two.
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Now we've won three straight. Let's see if we can make it four
16:31
straight. So I picked one game here
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tonight that caught my eye from a data-driven and betting system
16:36
perspective and it is a 7:00 game New Jersey Devils at the
16:41
Ottawa Senators. I'm going with the devils.
16:44
Let's go devils here guys. Devils open this game as low as
16:47
a -, 115 -, 120 Rd. favorite. Devils are now up to -140.
16:53
So right off the bat, you know, basically a 2025 cent steam move
16:58
in favor of the Devils. Now New Jersey comes in four and
17:01
two, two and one on the road. Otto was two and one.
17:04
They are two and O at home. But goalie changes here.
17:08
I think you're going to benefit the Devils or hopefully they
17:10
will. But anyway, big move toward the
17:12
devils -115 -, 120 now up to -140 at DraftKings.
17:16
They're getting 74% of bets, but 86% of dollars.
17:20
So low bets, higher dollars bets split, but a really couple of
17:23
really good systems here on the Devils.
17:25
The one that I really like is that road favored off a loss
17:28
versus opponent off a win. And if you guys remember, this
17:31
was system match the other day on the Pittsburgh Penguins when
17:34
they played the Canadians. We talked about how it was fishy
17:37
how again Penguins were off a loss, Montreal was off a win,
17:42
yet the line went to Penguins. Same sort of thing here, Devils
17:45
are coming off a loss against Carolina, four to two.
17:48
Senators had a crazy win. Eight to seven get to that in a
17:51
second high scoring game the other night.
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So that would match with Devils Rd. fave off a loss versus
17:57
opponent off a win. That system is 3 and O this year
18:00
and it is 67 and 3069 percent, 16% ROI over the last two
18:05
seasons. I have another system here, Rd.
18:08
favorite with steam versus an opponent who missed the playoffs
18:11
the previous year. If you are getting $0.10 of
18:15
steam or more, Rd. favorite, the opponent missed the playoffs and
18:18
the closing money line and it gets a little wonky.
18:21
But is -190 or less. I just wanted to kind of not
18:24
apply like the big favorites like -200 -, 250 but that system
18:29
is 266 and one 6861 percent, 5% ROI since 2019 / a pretty good
18:36
sample size here. Then you get to the goalies,
18:39
hopefully an advantage for the Devils.
18:40
They're going with Jacob Markstrom, who they picked up in
18:43
the offseason. 2 and two 2.79 goals against nine O 4 save
18:47
percentage so far this year. He'll be opposed by Anton
18:50
Forsberg, who's O&O 6.86 goals against, 667 save percentage.
18:57
He came up and actually I believe got the win or maybe he
19:00
didn't get the win, but I want to say he gave up three goals.
19:02
I guess maybe he's he sat and who was it came?
19:06
Let me double check because that Kings game they won 8, two,
19:10
yeah, I guess Sogard started or maybe Forsberg started.
19:13
Anyway, hard to read that box for.
19:15
I know that he either started and got pulled or didn't start
19:19
and came in. But either way, Forsberg has not
19:22
been good this year. He doesn't have a good track
19:24
record. And if this was Linus Olmark
19:27
starting for Ottawa, it's probably a much tighter number
19:30
here. I want to bet against Forsberg.
19:32
I want to bet against the defense of Ottawa.
19:34
Yes, they're coming off a win, but they give up seven goals.
19:38
That's like a baseball score, eight to seven.
19:40
They're giving up four goals a game this year.
19:43
The Devils are giving up 2.17. So Devils have a much better
19:46
defense, much better goal tending.
19:48
They're on their starting goalie.
19:50
Ottawa is on their backup goalie.
19:52
Also, if you look at special teams, Devils are really good
19:56
with the penalty kill, 94% penalty kill.
19:59
You look at Ottawa, they're only killing 64%.
20:03
Of their penalties here so hopefully an advantage in favor
20:06
of the devil so I'm going to go devils here guys shop around
20:09
good system match good steam I'm going devils on the money line
20:13
at -140 now to finish up the pod with our big 5 pack let's go to
20:19
some Major League Baseball 2 huge games here tonight 2
20:22
desperate teams you have Cleveland at home against the
20:25
Yankees down O2. You have the Mets at home
20:28
against the Dodgers down to to 1.
20:30
So obviously both teams got to win tonight or else they're in
20:33
even deeper trouble. But I'm going to focus on the
20:36
early game five O 8:00 PM Eastern Time, the ALCS, the
20:39
Yankees at the Cleveland guardians.
20:41
Now you have the Yankees leading 2O.
20:44
You have the Yankees win the opener 5 to 2.
20:46
They won again in game 26 to 3:00.
20:49
But those are in the Bronx now we're shifting and going to it's
20:53
not Jacobs Field anymore. When the when they had those
20:55
killer line UPS when I was younger with Jim, Tommy and
21:00
Kenny Lofton leading off and you know, a young Manny Ramirez,
21:03
Juan Gonzalez, I could I used to be able to get tell you the
21:05
whole lineup, David Justice at one point they were stacked.
21:09
But anyway, Progressive Field. So the series now shifts to
21:13
Cleveland guys. I'm going to bet on Cleveland to
21:16
win tonight to get this not evened up, but down O2.
21:20
Let's make it 2:00 to 1:00. So the first thing that jumped
21:23
out to me is that the public thinks this is the easiest game
21:26
in the world. They're going Yankees, the
21:28
Yankees. Yankees are getting 70% of money
21:31
line bets. What's important to me is that
21:34
not just Cleveland being a straight up contrarian play, but
21:37
the Lions going to Cleveland. You had the majority of numbers
21:41
open here. Yankees has like a -, 115 road
21:44
favorite, basically a -, 1 O 5 or a + 100 or even like a plus
21:48
one O 5 dog with Cleveland. And even though 70% of bets are
21:52
going Yankees, Lions going to Cleveland again, plus one O 5 to
21:56
-1 O 5, you know, even money to minus one O 5.
21:58
Basically this line, you would think if you open Yankees -115
22:03
even saw one opener of Yankees like -120 they're getting 70%.
22:07
Shouldn't Yankees be up to -130 you know, shouldn't this line be
22:10
moving toward the very popular side?
22:12
That's not happening. Basically, this line is now
22:15
becoming a pick em game minus one O 5 - 110 both sides.
22:19
So why is the line becoming a pick em if everyone's playing
22:22
Yankees? That tells me we got some smart
22:24
money here on the guards. I failed to mention the pitching
22:28
matchup could be hopefully will be important in favor of
22:31
Cleveland. But you have Clark Schmidt going
22:33
for the Yankees. He's O&O with a 3.86 Yara.
22:37
This postseason he had one postseason start.
22:40
It was a three two win over the Royals.
22:42
He went 4.2 innings, gave up two runs, and the regular season he
22:45
was five and five with a 2.85 Yara.
22:49
He'll be opposed by Matthew Boyd, the lefty who's O&O with a
22:53
0.00 ERA this postseason. He made two appearances versus
22:57
Detroit. He pitched a combined 6.2
23:00
innings, gave up no runs, and both of those games were at home
23:04
in Cleveland. So he's got some good mojo at
23:06
home. He was coming off Tommy John.
23:09
He had an abbreviated regular season.
23:11
He was two and two, 2.72 ERA. But the other angle here for me
23:15
is that aside from the contrarian opportunity here to
23:20
back the Guardians, only getting 32% or 30% bets, but 42%
23:25
dollars, low bets, higher dollars.
23:28
Obviously banking on Boyd, but also the Yankees.
23:31
As great as their lineup is, they don't hit very well against
23:34
lefties. Hope that continues.
23:35
They're only hitting 235 or hit 235 in the regular season
23:39
against southpaws. That's 24th in baseball.
23:42
I was surprised by that. I wouldn't have expected that.
23:45
By the way, Guardians have been really good at home, 50 and 30
23:48
at home this year. Down O2 in a desperation spot.
23:52
It just seems like, you know, the books are begging the public
23:56
to take the Yankees. Like you're getting Yankees at a
23:58
pick and price. How do you not play them yet?
24:00
They're popular and lines going to Cleveland.
24:02
So reading between the lines here, pun intended, seems to me
24:05
Cleveland's pretty sharp tonight.
24:07
So I'm going to back Cleveland with this contrarian sharp line
24:09
freeze or some reverse line movement in a desperation spot.
24:12
They played well at home. This is an early 5:08 PM Eastern
24:15
Time game on TBS. Give me the Guardians.
24:18
I got the Guardians at -105 at Bet MGM.
24:22
So that about does it for episode 143 of the All Systems
24:26
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
24:29
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
24:31
start off by asking you a favor. Could you do me a solid?
24:34
Could you please give this podcast a five star review?
24:37
It'll only take you a couple seconds, but it would mean a lot
24:40
to me to help us grow the pod and rise up even higher the
24:43
charts and the rankings for Spotify and iTunes.
24:46
But if you enjoy the pod, you enjoy the breakdowns.
24:49
Again, all you got to do is click on the Spotify or Twitter
24:53
account page, go to rate or review.
24:55
Boom, five stars. It would make my day.
24:57
I'd very much appreciate that. If you also want to click the
24:59
follow button, that way you get alerted as soon as it does the
25:02
pod drops each day. That would be great.
25:04
If you want to recommend it to a friend or leave a nice review,
25:07
that would be great as well. But please give this pod a five
25:11
star review if you enjoy it. Secondly, if you enjoy the style
25:15
of breakdown, you've now become a believer in the data-driven
25:18
model. When a play like Last Night with
25:21
Western Kentucky comes through, when you probably knew nothing
25:23
about Western Kentucky or their opponent, but you did notice
25:26
everyone was on Sam Houston, the line went to WKY and you're able
25:30
to cash that bet. If this style of betting now
25:33
appeals to you, you've been provided a blueprint.
25:35
I didn't. I didn't come up with this on my
25:37
own, but it's what I've learned and kind of refined over the
25:40
years. And hopefully now you're using
25:43
or finding the fruits of this system match or a way to
25:46
approach the betting market, the data-driven model.
25:48
But if this style of betting appeals to you and you want to
25:50
learn more about data-driven betting or you just want to make
25:52
my day, let me know. You appreciate the hard work
25:54
that I put in hosting this pod each day.
25:57
Then guess what? There's a book out there that
25:59
you can go by and you don't even have to go anywhere.
26:01
You just open your phone, go to Amazon.com and type in the
26:04
everything guide to sports betting.
26:07
That's my baby. I wrote that thing a few years
26:09
ago. It's got everything I've learned
26:10
in the industry. How lines are set.
26:12
How and why they move. How to read line movement.
26:14
How to locate sharp action. How to go contrarian.
26:17
How to place a bet in person or online.
26:19
How to shop for the best line. How to set up a bankroll
26:21
management plan. All included in the Everything
26:23
Guide to Sports Betting. So pick up a copy for you, or a
26:26
buddy or that friend of yours that loves betting on sports but
26:30
never wins and has no bankroll management.
26:32
And just as always with the public, get them this this book
26:36
and hopefully, hopefully they're they'll increase their wins.
26:40
But seriously, guys, if you want to pick it up, it'll mean a lot
26:42
to me. So thank you so much.
26:44
If you already have or if you're thinking about it, great
26:46
stocking stuffer. Just saying, holidays are not
26:49
that far off. But anyway, guys, if you bring
26:52
that book to the sports book, I'll sign it for you.
26:55
I'll buy a beer or ginger ale next.
26:57
Have you taken advantage of your 7 day free trial?
27:00
Have you tried out Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
27:03
Well, if you haven't yet, I want you to do that today.
27:05
I want you to do that right now. All you got to do is click the
27:08
custom links that are located in the bio description of this
27:10
podcast on Spotify or iTunes. So each bio will tell you what
27:16
the episode is about. Scroll down a little bit, it'll
27:19
give you links to Juice Reel and Rhythm.
27:20
Click those links. It's very important you click
27:22
those custom links. That way Juice Reel and Rhythm
27:25
know that I sent you their way because I want to do my part to
27:27
help them grow. But also there are great sports
27:31
betting apps that hopefully they help me win.
27:33
Hopefully they'll help you win. So Rhythm, we talked about
27:36
rhythm quite a bit. They do a great job of powering
27:37
the pod. But Rhythm, which by the way, is
27:41
now close to cracking the top 50 for most downloaded sports
27:45
sports betting apps, which is pretty cool.
27:47
So shout out to the team, James and Megan and Brian.
27:50
But anyway, Rhythm is great for their AI backed models and
27:54
betting predictions for both game bets and player props.
27:58
And then you look at Juice Reel. They give you a ton of different
28:00
great features, including if you just want to tail the AI
28:03
selected best bet picks each day from Robo Jackson.
28:06
Or look at the arbitrage opportunities where you follow
28:09
the risk ratios and guarantee yourself a profit by betting
28:12
opposite sides at opposing books.
28:14
Or of course, all the detailed game, game bets and dollars
28:19
breakdowns, sharp mush opportunities for each game,
28:22
syncing up your sports books. You got to sync up your books
28:24
when you have juice Reel so that once you bet it in your book, it
28:27
goes right to juice reel and you get a running report card of
28:29
your action. I don't mention this a ton, but
28:31
there's a feature to where you can actually sell your plays if
28:34
you want. Like you can put up, you know,
28:36
for a dollar a week, 100 a week, whatever you want to do, access
28:39
to your place so you can believe in yourself, put your plays up
28:42
there. But both apps are great.
28:44
They help me win. I'm confident they'll help you
28:46
win. Go sign up using those custom
28:48
links for both Juice Reel and Rhythm.
28:51
Of course, finishing up the pod here, my last two comments.
28:54
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
28:58
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
29:00
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
29:03
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
29:06
neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
29:08
They're out in the desert where the true grinder grinders get
29:10
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the
29:13
lowest true as possible is found at the South Point or sweat and
29:16
sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool
29:18
when he cashed a big ticket at Circa.
29:20
Wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
29:22
You're going to show me chef's kiss.
29:25
Beautiful reverse line move play on Western Kentucky last night.
29:29
The Maple Leafs just don't show me that Liberty Links ticket had
29:32
to make that shot. Sabrina, come on, good for you.
29:35
But you know you could have hit a couple threes in overtime and
29:38
still won the game and given us our over.
29:39
But anyway, guys, first one's on me, next one's on you.
29:42
Then we're going to post about the book.
29:44
Sweat sharp contrarian plays all night long.
29:47
So that being said, everyone parting words as always, stay
29:50
sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the public, place
29:53
yourself on the side of the house.
29:54
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
29:56
Will smart money win every time? Of course not Nothing's a lock,
30:00
nothing's a guarantee. But here's the thing.
30:02
Anything can happen in a one off, so you could, you know, dog
30:05
could win favorite could win over under.
30:08
Anything can happen in a one off.
30:09
But remember, we're always playing a long game.
30:11
Don't focus on the one bet tonight.
30:13
Focus on the 1000 plus bets that you're going to make over the
30:16
course of the year. And if we can stay consistent
30:19
betting games with our head and not our heart against the
30:21
public, with the house, with the pros flat bet, avoid parlays and
30:25
get that closing line value. If we can do that long term,
30:27
we're going to be successful sports vetters.
30:29
So have a great Thirsty Thursday everyone.
30:33
As you may or may not know, Thursday night is my beer league
30:35
softball night. So I will be hopefully going
30:39
over 6 1/2 total bases tonight in our in our game.
30:43
It's a late game too, 9:00, so under the lights in Cambridge.
30:46
Very much looking forward to it. But that means also I'll be in
30:49
the dark hoping that all these plays you mentioned are winning.
30:52
But hey, you got you. Got to get out there and relive
30:55
the dream and the beer league softball.
30:57
But anyway, guys, have a great thirsty Thursday night.
30:59
We'll be back at it tomorrow for a big Friday.
31:02
Episode 144 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
31:06
powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody.
31:09
Have a great Thursday night.