Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - This is the Best Investing Opportunity of Your Life + Stock Market News 01 December 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - This is the Best Investing Opportunity of Your Life + Stock Market News 01 December 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here, welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: We're going to walk through today how we're going to make the most money in the coming week.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: If you're interested in that, well, you're in the right place.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: So, in short, if you're ready to make some money, put I am in the chat here and we're going to get cracking.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: We're going to make some real, real money.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Now, michael, my friend, I just saw your little comment there in the live chat and I thought I had to take a screenshot of this, because this is exactly why I show up here every day, because it gives me a tremendous pleasure to see people like Michael say I made 350, 350 percent this year because of your genius content, and I'm not saying that because I want to take credit for it, and I don't, michael.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: But if I encouraged you just a little bit to take some action that maybe you wouldn't have otherwise taken, maybe you learned some things you would have otherwise learned, maybe applied some risk management that you didn't know existed, then you make me very, very happy.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: So everyone who's saying I am, I love you for being here, patricio and Jip, the entire US Army is here, williams here, aruna, joan and everybody else Too many I ams that I can read out.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: So let's get cracking.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: There is a crucial reason why I continue to be ecstatically bullish and if you've watched me for some time, I'm not always ecstatically bullish.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: I have entire months where I just go off and just do nothing at all because I tell you it isn't worth it.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: My friends Headed there to Mexico City JJ.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: That's a place I've not been to yet.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Now there is one thing that's crucial to understand.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: There's a couple of things, but this is one of the key things here, and I'll also tell you why.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: The S&P has a seasonal move to it for all sorts of reasons, from tax to how funds money flows to.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: You know just the sort of seasons when people are not skiing and not in the Bahamas, and where we are, where are we right now?
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: We're basically here, right, that's where we are, and from there, typically to the end of the year, you know, we add about 2% or so, and you might say 2% isn't really all that much, but it's quite a lot, because if the S&P goes up by 2% and think about the S&P, there are 500 stocks in the S&P.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: We usually probably talk about the top 7, top 10, that kind of thing, and then there are maybe 470 stocks at least that are just really, really boring and really don't do very much and are just fairly average businesses that generate some return.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: So if you're in the right stocks, a 2% return could be a 20% return.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: So it really matters.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Seasonally it helps.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: If everybody is basically pushing in the right direction.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: It's much, much easier to go with the flow and generally in life you don't want to go with the flow.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Do something different to everybody else, because everybody has a pretty average life.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: If you want extraordinary, you're going to do something against the trend, but in the stock market you love the trend.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: You can see the trend and I'll show you how you see it in a second and you follow it, because it is much, much easier to make money with all the billions and trillions of Wall Street pouring in than to try and find the thing that maybe will turn around at some point.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Like somebody mentioned Nike earlier, We'll touch upon on that.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: When you know when's Nike going to turn around, well, you can think, oh, it must turn around, but it might not turn around for a year or two.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: It might get Starbucks or some other disasters out there, right?
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: But apart from the seasonality and again, this is crucial to understand.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: We've had a lot of reasons for Wall Street to go.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: I'm feeling confident.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Nvidia earnings were solid, walmart earnings were solid, so the US consumer is alive and I'll show you some more data on that in a second.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Trump's picking people that the market likes, like Besant, the market goes woohoo one of us, essentially.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: So that gives confidence, and the more we get details of what Trump's going to do and who's going to do it with, the more confident the market gets and the less.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: What's the word?
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: I was going to say insecurity, which is sort of the outcome, but the market just hates the unknown.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: The market needs certainty, so less uncertainty is probably actually the best way to put that.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Less uncertainty means stocks go up.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Okay, now who wants to understand what's really really ultimately driving this rally and where all the money is coming from?
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Say, I do.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat my friends.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Jmj, you were applying the four pointers.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, love that.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about that in a second as well.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Okay, what do you think about Archer Aviation?
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Anybody want to know why the rally is doing what it's doing?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Noise says I meow.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Okay, the I do's are coming in with a slight time lag here Scott and Royston and William and Ian and Big Harry Chin, which is interesting A big I do.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: I love that.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: So let me show you.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Let me show you, okay, the crazy thing is that Wall Street is borrowing more money than it's ever borrowed before to panic, buy stocks because they don't want to get left behind, they don't want to finish the year with less of a return than you know, some of you, some of me, and you know retail out there because they might actually get fired for once.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So what are we seeing?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: And this is I thought hard about whether I should show you this, because people always say to me you've got to keep it simple.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Felix, funding spreads.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: We don't need to go into the detail of this, but essentially, what this is showing you is that in blue you have the s&p 500 and then in red you have an indicator for how much money they're borrowing and you can see they're going up together, right, and they are at unprecedented levels.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: So what are they doing?
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: They're borrowing money and then they are essentially leveraging their bullish positions into the S&P or into individual stocks.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: And why is that important?
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Isn't that very risky?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there's some risk in that, but, as I say, you go with the flow of the market.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: You go with wherever the money is going and you participate, you set stop losses, you have risk management in place and then, when it does eventually drop and it will eventually drop it did that here in August, for example we get out.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: A few days later, we get back in as the whole thing turns around, the money keeps pouring in.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: So, really important to understand Wall Street institutions are putting as much money as they possibly can into the market right now and that's what's driving this, that's what's driving the rally, that's where all the money is coming from.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Now, some of you mentioned that, just.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Some of you mentioned just that you were applying a four-step thingy.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Right, you were like a four-step thingy.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: What's a four-step thingy?
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Well, if you absorb the information that I'm about to give you and apply it, I promise you it'll change your life, and I really really mean that Grand promise because it actually delivers.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: If you watch this free masterclass that I recorded for you and I'm not going to run you through the whole thing, because it would take 30 minutes of my life every single day, not particularly useful so you can watch it at any time.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: It's completely free of charge.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Just write down phoenixfriendsorg slash, get free, and after the stream you just sit down for half an hour with a notebook and you watch it.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: You can take screenshots whatever you like and you will genuinely learn how we pick those winners.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Because it works.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: It's actually very, very simple.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Not all of us have phones to look at all day.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Phone computers, slew Trade Vision phone app.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Are you asking about an app coming for Trade Vision?
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's coming.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: It's coming.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: The guys are in the midst of working on it, so it'll come out.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: I haven't got a date on it, but there will be apps for Trade Vision in a little bit.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Now here is another thing that's insanely important, and this is something that has never, ever happened in the history of the stock market, as far as I can tell.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: And what is it?
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Us consumer is expecting that the stock market will be higher in a year's time, and normally it's sort of 35% or so of the US consumer who thinks that Right now it's 58%.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: And why is that important?
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Well, most people don't think about the stock market right At all, but at the moment we have the highest level of confidence in the stock market We've seen since well, certainly since 1987, perhaps have the highest level of confidence in the stock market we've seen since.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Well, certainly since 1987, perhaps the data?
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: I think you could probably go back a lot of time, a few more decades back, and you wouldn't see that kind of number.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: This could be the golden era of the US stock market, seriously, 2025.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: And I wasn't that bullish a year ago.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: No, I wasn't at all.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: But the stars are aligning and it's crucial to understand all the bits and the components and it's crucial to position yourself on the right things and hopefully we can do something here to do something about that.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: And yes, mark, if you copy and paste the same thing again and again and again, I will wield my massive power and put you in a timeout for five minutes.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Yes, you see, I'm German.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: We all have a little bit of a Napoleon complex built in.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: You see, we want power.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Just kidding, but yeah, yeah, here is one other thing that is going to really matter Santa is coming.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: I saw Santa the other day at a lovely hotel here.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: He was sitting on a sofa.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: He gave me a candle.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Actually, it's here.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: See, you, don't believe me, santa is real.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: He gave me a candle.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Does it smell good?
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Actually, it does smell good.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: It smells very Christmassy.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Maybe actually have that out here.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's very Christmassy.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: It's got a train on it too.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: He obviously thought I was six, or at least half the mental age of a six-year-old, which is probably true.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: So what about the Santa thing?
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Well, in December, in December of every year, the S&P is up with a 75% probability, which is the highest probability we have for the entire year.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: December is the best month of the year because Santa is coming.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Now you have a slightly orange Santa on top of that, which is Donald J Trump, who's going to give you tax cuts and less regulation and all those other wonderful things that Wall Street loves, and new SEC people and everything else.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Santa is coming to town.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Indeed, we should all break out into song, shouldn't we?
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Well, after more than 300 of you have smashed the like button I mean 1,600 people watching, 300 likes Harsh crowd I'd say that's all right, I can handle it.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: I can handle it.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: I've got Winston.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: He always smiles at me.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: You see, that's the wonderful thing with dogs they have unconditional love.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Well, unless someone else has some food, in which case he's, of course, off.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: But you see, there is something else that I find rather intriguing.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: It is Bitcoin, the whole crypto world and you might think I don't care about crypto.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: I do, it doesn't really matter.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: But what happens when this is ibit, which is the biggest etf?
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: At the beginning of the year it was trading at 20 bucks.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Right now it's trading at 54 bucks.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: So that is what is that?
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: 150 percent up.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: You know what that means.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Lots of people are 150% richer.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: What are they going to do with that money?
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: They're going to go out and they're probably going to buy Lambos and black t-shirts.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: That's generally the people that I see who enter crypto.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: But no, no, seriously, they're going to spend more money.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: They're going to feel better, right?
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: They're going to buy houses, they're going to buy cars.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: So the Bitcoin rally is stimulus to the economy and therefore to the stock market.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Thank you for the 130 extra likes.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: I appreciate you, but there is more.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: There are also people who are in on this XRP.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: And you know what?
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: If you watch my masterclass link is down below and you would have actually come to the conclusion that that would have been the breakout, and that breakout was at I don't know some silly level, but anyway, it's gone up 333 percent since that breakout, which was predictable.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Now, actually, I didn't look at xrp then.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: It's not not part of my screeners.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Probably should be, because we'd be at 333% right now.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: But again, this creates wealth real, tangible wealth and people feel wealthier.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: They're going to go out and they're going to spend more, and that is what you need to create.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: If you want to create economic growth, you need to make everyone believe that everything is wonderful, everything is going to get better, and Donald J Trump seems to have managed to do that without actually being in power.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: So you've got the highest confidence in the stock market, you've got crypto going nuts, you've got the biggest kind of panic buying of stocks by institutional investors, and all of this comes together and what happens?
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: It just becomes a snowball and it gets bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger and more wonderful.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Where's Joe going?
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: I think he's going to pardon some more criminals.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Isn't he Maybe a little harsh?
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is his son.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: I get that.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: If you have just the power to pardon your son, you probably would do the same thing, wouldn't you, probably?
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: I can see why it's.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: He said a thousand times he wouldn't.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: That's probably what makes him look bad, but people have pardoned all sorts of nutters.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Why not your son right Now?
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: We also had Black Friday, if you hadn't noticed, and, by the way, there is a Black Friday offer for a trade vision out, which I'll mention in a short moment and it was good.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Black Friday was very good.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: So in-store traffic was bad, by the way, so your Macy's and so on.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: I'd still stay the heck away from your Foot Lockers and all these guys who are selling offline mostly.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: But e-commerce is up 14.6% from last year, which is brilliant.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: In-store sales up 0.7%.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Who do you think is winning?
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Amazon or Macy's?
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Where are you going to put your money right?
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: So, fundamentally, online is just going to take over and offline is sort of going to die a slow death, perhaps, with the exception of some luxury stuff or something that you want to smell.