Latest / Financial Survival Network / 2024 Markets Forecast with Michael Moor #5956

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2024 Markets Forecast with Michael Moor #5956 · Financial Survival Network

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Basically back in here in January of twenty twenty two, we've broken below this
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bullish trend here, not the entire bullish tread, just this upper leg of
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it. We entered into this full bear structure here, and then we have
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been in a new bullish structure since then. I think this has one more
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leg to go to take out these highs up here at forty six, thirty
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three fifty and then we all have to look at different exhaustion levels up above.
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And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm
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here hoes Carrie Lotz since the last day of November. Figured we touch with
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Michael Moore More Analytics. You find them at moreo R Analytics dot com.
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Questions, comments, whatever, send me an email kl at carrielots dot com
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and Mike, it's great to have you back. On the show, so
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we've had quite a run up in the S and P and in the indexes.
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Avan. Wait, yes, thank you very much for having me on
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Kerry. I appreciate so. Sure, So what's doing in the market here?
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We got some charts to look at, a sure, So I'm a
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technical analyst, so my analysis of the markets is strictly from price action or
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any of your followers that normally look at fundamentals. So my charts may look
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like hieroglyphics with all of these lines all over them, but these charts are
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not really designed for presentations to audiences. There really my charts that I use
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for determining price movement. But right here in the SP's this this insert right
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here. This is the the SMP analysis that I send to my clients every
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morning. So I send this out in the mornings, and then in the
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afternoons I send a video podcast everybody. So we'll just take into what I
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actually sent to traders this morning. This seems like a lot of writing,
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but most of the upside is on hold because these are higher time frame calls.
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I warn't holding possible macro exhaustion at thirty five thirty one, which we
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had the potential to trigger at bullish correction to training with the minimum target of
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thirty seven ninety three and a higher time frame target of forty one ninety We
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held that with thirty five h two though, and bounced eleven thirty two,
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taking out both targets. So this says a bunch of other the higher timeframe
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calls in here. Then we had a lower time frame call. We held
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exhaustion above at forty six eighteen fifty, but the forty six thirty five I
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rolled over five hundred and twelve point twenty five. Now that's I hold now
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on a lower time frame. This is the This is the part of the
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paragraph that traders would look at in the morning, and so each of these
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sentences has been updated every day since they've been written. The first one being
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that we held exhaustion below at forty one fifteen with the forty one twenty two
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and a quarter low at abouts four hundred and seventy four point seventy five.
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That was holding this exhaustion level right here with this red rectangle, So we'd
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bounced. Then the next fullish call was the break above this formation right in
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here. Actually, no, that was left. The next call the next
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call was we left this. This is a daily chart. We left the
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bullsh reversal right here. That was on eleven one, and we rallied three
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seventy five from that forty two to twenty one fifty over. Then we traded
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above the forty two seventy seven seventy five line that's brought in three hundred and
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nineteen point five. That was the break above this line. I'm not going
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to go through all of them, but a more significant one here. As
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I said, solid penetration above forty three sixteen ninety three to twenty eight seventy
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four put this back above a substantial formation that warned of higher trade for days
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slash weeks. We've seen two hundred and sixty eight point twenty five of that
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so far. That was the break above these two lines right here, and
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you can see we've broke above those are on November three, so we've been
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up above there almost a month fulfilling what we said here about weeks, and
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then we broke above another significant formation at forty four seventeen fifty that projects us
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upward two hundred and ninety five points. We've only seen one hundred and seventy
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nine point five of that so far, so that still has more to go.
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And then on a very short term, we broke above a minor formation
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to forty five sixty three seventy five, which brought in thirty three point twenty
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five of strength. And I'll show you that right here. That is this
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little little formation right here. We broke above. It came all the way
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down here within point twenty five seventy five of the stop, and then rallied
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up to here. If we break below here decently, that's going to warn
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a renewed pressure down line's going to command that at forty five fifty four seventy
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one minus light team per hour starting at two o'clock PM. Let me just
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talk about a little bit of a higher time frame outlook, because we haven't
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been on for a little while. But this is a daily chart again,
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forgive all the hieroglyphics on here, but not a problem basically back in here.
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In January of twenty twenty two, we've broken below this bullish trend here,
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not the entire bullish trend, just this upper leg of it. We
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entered into this full barrow structure here, and then we have been in a
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new bullish structure since then I think this has one more leg to go to
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take out these highs up here at forty six thirty three fifty, and then
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we all have to look at different exhaustion levels up above. We hold one
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of those exhaustional levels, we could see a bear's correction larger than one of
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these correctionals. But currently right now, we're still bullish in general to the
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upside. Okay, they're still bullets to the upsides. And how much further
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can it go? Well, I think we'll probably take out forty six thirty
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three fifty give me a second here, and then, well, I said
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that that what projection right here, right, this is the trade above forty
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four to seventeen to fifty project you upward two hundred and ninety five plus.
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You've only seen one hundred and seventy nine of that so far, so we
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could see another one hundred and fifteen above that. You know. Short term
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we can still see you know, we can see some consolidative pullbacks in here
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or whatever, but in general, it's just we're still above those lines.
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This is still projected higher. Okay, all right, So higher we go,
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We've got to see a crash once it hits its peak. What's you're
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feeling, I do. I think we're going to We're going to see a
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correction from up there. I wouldn't say a full crash necessarily, but we
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have exhaustion levels up above to be aware of, at forty seven to seventy
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one and a half to forty eight twenty one and a half, and then
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higher levels above that. Also, if we were to break above forty six
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thirty three point fifty and then settle below it for a couple of days,
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that could also trigger in early termination of that move up and roll over.
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And you can see yes year on the charts of ser these are pretty major
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areas right here. Forty six thirty one the forty six thirty three p.
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Fifty is a major area. So if we broke above that and really settled
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below it, then this thing can really start to come off, all right.
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So I realized, you're a technical guy. You don't really go into
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the fundamentals, But do you have any explanations or theories about the market's behavior,
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why it's gone up, why it's climbed on a wall over worry?
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What a great question for a technician. So this is really more of an
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answer on a technical level. The straight answer to that is no, because
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I don't really look into the fundamentals that much. The reason why I look
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at things from a price actual perspective is the theory behind technical analysis and looking
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at those prices is the current market pricing is a reflection of the sum total
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of all the people treating that market at that time. And what I have
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found over the years is that a technical analysis will get you into rooms earlier
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than the fundamental picture paints that picture eighty five to nine, eighty five to
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ninety percent of the time, and we'll get you out of at eighty five
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to ninety five percent of the time earlier than the fundamentals will show you when
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you get out of it. So the fundamentals are what drives the market.
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Okay, that's the underpinning of the market, but the technicals reveal which way
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that those are going to turn much earlier than to fundamentals present themselves like that,
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If that makes any sense, Okay, I don't know if that was
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very clear of an answer. If that was clear, it clear as we're
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going to get and we're grateful for it. Really well, I'll give you
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a quick example in the in the crude oil. You know, I was
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getting barrassed at different exhaustion levels up above here. Then we broke above a
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major top and patter right here on the sixth and no ever, you know,
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who would call who would call that? Who would call the crude oil
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to be bearish when there's a war break, when there's a war going on
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in Israel? And right? Counterintuitive for certain right right exactly? So?
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Uh. And the other thing is is I started this analysis at the request
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of a natural gas futures trader on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange,
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and a natural gas and crude oil options trigger and the options pit down
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there into this analysis. You know, traders and the pits on the trading
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floors are looking for something that's immediate and very tangible and ciffik. And that's
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what the technicals provide. Right, Okay, I like it. I like
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it onto other markets. Why don't we first look at what Let's look at
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energy crude oil and get it as long as you've as long as you're the
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one who raised it after all. Right, all right, okay, let's
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see what we got there. Well, we can look at crude oil.
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Crude oil is a sale right here. As a matter of fact, we
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had just broken above. Let me pull this over here, crude all down
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below. We had held exhaustion down below at seventy two even with the seventy
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two to thirty seven low, and bounced up to seventy eight twenty six or
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seventy nine to sixty. And we had broken above two different bullish formations.
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One right here we saw a nice run up from. Another one right here
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we saw a run up from. But then we held exhaustion right up here
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at seventy seventy nine seventy two with the seven nine sixty high, and we
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rolled over and we failed below this formation right here. And that's really key
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because now that projects us lower and another three dollars and fifty cents to the
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downside. That line right now comes in at seventy six seventeen and increases one
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point seven ticks per hour. To those of you that don't know that ticks
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nomenclature, a tick is an exchange term for the lowest increment that a commodity
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moves or trades it. So for crude oil, a tick would be a
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cent on a on a barrow, and your stock would currently be one hundred
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and one ticks or a dollar one above seventy six seventeen. We still do
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the tren in the tron too, or is that like totally antiquated? The
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trend in the tron. The trend in the tron, right, the trend
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I mean we used to term trend analogy tren, t R I n trin.
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No, And I don't really used that. Did they use that on
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the in the you know, I'm old. There used to be the trin
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right, and there used to be the tron right. Oh, I haven't
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heard that. I've always been down on commodities excuse that may have been more
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of a stocked Is that more of a stock exchance? Then? Yeah?
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Uh, you know it's a they were like measurements and directions of the heading.
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Trin is a short term treating tool that measures volatility in the stock market.
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Trend represents the relationship between advancing and declining issues by measuring their volume flow.
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Right, really interesting pron you know, nobody uses it anymore. I
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think the computers figure all that stuff out, so they don't really care anymore.
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Right, but you know, uh, the tron, God, I
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gotta find it now. But there's the trend in the tron stock term.
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Yeah, tron. I don't know that. It's like we're getting old here,
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but you know, tron meant something else. If anybody else out there
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knows or remembers what the heck tron was, please tell me, uh email
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address kl at Kerrie LUTs dot com. I will send you a pre nineteen
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sixty five dime for the first five people who can figure out de fine a
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tron okay. And I don't stocktron, I mean what is tron okay?
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So anyways, and I'm not talking about the cryptocurrency tron either. Yeah.
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I think some of the nomenclature I still have is probably antiqueted too. You
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know, if I say that, you know this is going to come off
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five dollars before coming off the board and rolling into the next contract. I
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guess coming off the board is when they used to actually write it on more.
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Yeah, and things like the ticker right yeah, nah, we date
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ourselves now, right, but you know we still use that terminology even on
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the trading flow board. We didn't even have a boarder. It's just a
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terminology that just kept the flow over. So and you don't really have a
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trading floor either. So another thing, you know, the Wall Street,
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the New York Stock Exchange is just a gigantic backdrop where that really happens.
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I think the I don't even think that people work on the floor anymore.
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I think they're hired actors. They just have virtual back Yeah, it doesn't
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exist. It's just a backdrop. It's just a big zoom call. You
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don't know this, but the stock market has been replaced by one giant zoom
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call and a little magician behind it. All right, and at the big
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board there'll be selling condos at the end of the month. They're going to
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come hurk. I always predicted that, Mike always Hey, I'll tell you,
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well, Street doesn't really exist anymore. It's a it's a mean,
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it's a it's a state of mind. It's not really a place anymore.
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I mean, yeah, Broaden Wall exists, but nothing's happening there. People
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lived there. I think the only thing happening there is the brass bullet's still
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down there, pically data next to this bull's hindquarters. For certain reason,
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that'll get it and the streets are blocked off, but for what purpose I
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don't quite know. The residual effect of nine to eleven. Yeah, I
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remember on nine to eleven. After that, I was our building. We
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were the only people allowed below Chamber Street and west of Broadway for three months
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after nine to eleven. Yeah. Spent a lot of my life down there,
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Matt. Oh yeah, well down there at Pace University had a number
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of offices down there, and it was really happy when I didn't have to
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go there anymore. Yeah. I remember the first day going after nine eleven.
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It was like all you did, all you smelled, was all this
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acred smoke, and you couldn't got it further into subway because horrible Gobody's further
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gone, absolutely horrible. All right. We had to march to work our
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first day and in three single files with people with machine guns martshoots to work.
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That's reassuring. Yeah, all right, so what do we got here?
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Okay, so the crude on the very short term, this is basically
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made a bullish a classic bearish structure, right, classic bullish correction against getting
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higher lows. Now we see that and higher highs. Right, but now
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we're breaking down. So we held this exhaustion level right here, we've taken
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out this bearish formation. Now this is projected lower at least three and a
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half dollars. We're probably going to come down and take out these lows down
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here at seventy two thirty six, and then we're going to have to look
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at a higher time frame exhaustion from this higher time frame move up here at
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ninety twenty seven, and those exhaustion levels will come in around seventy forty two
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to sixty nine to ninety one, and then lower levels down here at sixty
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eight fifty four or sixty seven ninety Okay, all right, and just one
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other thing. Just you can see here this whole formation up here is a
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significant topping formation. So we broke below that, we sawnce move down here.
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We've corrected a bit, so this could be way more than the three
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and a half. Also, this could be a whole bearra structure that could
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dig even deep, so we'll have to see. One last thing to say
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is if we were to come back up and take this line out here,
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this higher line which is going to move up, and just say we show
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it stay where it is right now, that higher line comes in at eighty
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one ninety tomorrow, will come in around eighty one ninety six. It moves
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up about six cents a day. If we were to break back above that
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line decently, then that would want a run for the Highes again, all
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little bit back up at ninety twenty seven. So that is definitely the level
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I would be paying attention to when I use the term decent. That's not
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some kind of weird phrase. Decent is my terminology for a very specific volatility
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adjusted stop. Today it just happens to be one hundred and one ticks or
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a dollar in one set, but that changes from day to day. Okay,
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all right, you want to look at that, you asked, do
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you have any questions on that? No? I think we're good on that.
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So we can look for lower prices there, and you know you think
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at some point it's going higher here or what you out? Well, there's
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glue all that line. I'll just give you the short term line right here.
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Let me just h that's one more point I should make the short term
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line that I talked about right here. Yeah, well, let me pull
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it back up here. This line comes in at seventy six seventeen from two
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o'clock to three o'clock Eastern Standard time today, it increases by one point seven
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ticks per hour, or you could just say two ticks or two cents or
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whatever you want. If we were to break back above that decently, that
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would warned a run right back up to seventy nine sixty right. If we
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take out this upper level up there, that warns much more substantial back up
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to the ninety two to sixty nine level. That would be about twelve dollars.
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But right now we're bearish right here. You could be short with the
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very tight risk of about a dollar fifty and you'd be looking for at least
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three dollars to the down side and a good deal more probably. Okay,
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all right onwards an up words here. That's good. So natural gas,
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the winter building being down to a lower timeframe again, you have you been
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doing too good lately? Huh? We've been waiting for a breakout and nada.
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Well, I've been barishing the natural gas for quite a bit. Let
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me pull that up here real quick. So in the natural I said the
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trade below eighty eight twenty eighty, I've bembarised since eight twenty eighty, and
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we're trading two eighty right now, so I've be embarrassed from eight twenty eighty.
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I wanted pressure we've seen six dollars and twenty six cents to the downside,
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and there and then the tree below seven eighteen eighty also brought in five
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dollars and twenty four cents. We left the bearish formation above again and here
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and then the tree below five thirteen to four ninety nine to thirty projected this
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downward two dollars and twenty seven minimum three seven plus maximum. We've seen three
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dollars of that so far, so some major projections to the downside. More
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recently, the break below three forty six ninety is brought in seven hundred and
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nine ticks pressure. And as we came down here we broken below a major
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formation up here. We've really been coming off from there. We held exhaustion
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levels here, bounced a bit, another one here bounced a bit, but
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couldn't generate a bullish correction, and we're still heading lower. The next exhaustion
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level below is two fifty seventy. If we were to break above this formation
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coming in right at above, which comes in at two eighty five fifty minus
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two per hour starting at two o'clock PM, a decent break above there would
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project this upward just you know, one hundred and fifty ticks minimum. It's
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not a very major formation, but it could generate into a higher timeframe bullish
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correction which could be substantial. We have to see if we were to get
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back above these levels up in here around the three forty five to three fifty
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area, then that would probably bring in straight up to the three eighty six
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levels. And let me just zoom out for a second here on a daily
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chart. This is the sixty minute try. I'm going to go to daily
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chart right here and just zoom out with you for a minute. Here.
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This is Each one of these bars represents the day's trading activity. So you
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can see here we came up and we started this whole new bear trend in
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here. So we've been in the sparas slide for quite a while. We
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had a long sideways period and here that it looked like this might be a
22:10
base, but then we just cracked down below it and really came down in
22:14
here. So it's not the best thing for natural gas because for a trader's
22:18
perspective anyway, because usually when you get down on these levels, your volatility
22:22
becomes a lot lower. Unless we were to see some big new spike to
22:26
the upside. We'd have to see do you have any questions? Done that
22:30
before I move? Yeah? Keep going. Okay, you want to take
22:36
a look at the s and P five hundred next? Okay, no,
22:38
good, Okay, wait, we did the SMB first. I'm sorry,
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excuse me? Yeah, yeah, let's do Gold all right? Gold?
22:48
All right, So Gold, I'm gonna really come out at a really high
22:51
time frame for everybody watching. This is a weekly time frome. Sorry,
22:59
that's not the right chart. Bear with me a moment. Okay, So
23:02
this is a more significant chart. I want to give you some perspective.
23:06
You're in a much higher level because there are you know where, really at
23:11
some critical levels in the ear you some of this stuff here, right,
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So Gold, I caught you at eight sixteen eighteen at the break above eleven
23:19
seventy nine, warned of renewed strength. We've seen nine hundred and five and
23:23
outs through that, and then the break above thirteen forty seven projected this separate
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eighty minimum three hundred and twenty plus maximum. We saw seven hundred and forty
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four of that. Now, this sentence has literally been updated every day since
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August sixteenth, twenty eighteen. Why am I bringing it up because that's when
23:41
I first kept bullush right in here, and then the brook of this basing
23:45
formation, which basically substantiated that this part of it was the beginning of a
23:51
bull trend. Right So we've seen one, two, three, four,
23:56
and now five the likely last stretch in this bull trend up into here.
24:02
So up in here we have to look at the possibilities of exhaustion levels.
24:07
I don't have them drawn on here right now. If we'll hold an exhaustion
24:11
level up there and really fail back down through all these areas, we could
24:15
see a much larger bearish projection of correction than these currently right now, though
24:22
we have broken back above this major to line. Sorry I'm moving this around
24:26
a little bit, and that comes in at two O five seventy three to
24:30
two O five excuse me, twenty fifty seven thirty to twenty fifty seven to
24:34
ten. So that warns a higher trade right now. If we fail back
24:40
down through that solidly, that will negate the bullishness above it. Solid today
24:45
happens to be eight dollars and ten cents, I mean lower time. I
24:48
just wanted to show you that all because that's just a higher tire frame perspective
24:52
where we are structurally in OK. Now, you know, two things could
24:57
happen. We can since this is con realidated here for quite a while after
25:02
a big road up right, we could see another significant run up into the
25:06
last stretch. That's a possibility. But if we break above all this stuff,
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it really make some damage back down into it. We could see a
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drop right back down to these lower levels here. And so I'm not trying
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to talk duplicitly out of my mouth, but either sides, I'm just trying
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to say the datst level, these general levels right here are very important to
25:23
understand and watch what the market does around them, because that will dictate what
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the market does for the next you know, significant amount. This is the
25:36
longest gold has stayed over two thousand, isn't it Yep? For quite a
25:41
while yep. So that in itself is potential bullish indicator. Yeah, but
25:47
like I said, I think we're in the last stretch. If this moved
25:48
up so that that can mean do a couple of quick calculations right here,
25:56
and that would leave the first exhaustion level would be up two and twenty two
26:03
to two thousand and two hundred and sixty three it ounce, and then the
26:07
next level up above that will be around two thousand and three hundred and eighty
26:11
seven ounce. And then to go down to some lower time frame. Little
26:18
the lower timeframe picture, excuse me, okay, So in a lower time
26:22
frame, I warned down ten six of strainths and we left a moderate polish
26:26
reversal below. I update these, like I said every day from inception that
26:33
was holding these lows back down. And here we have the major exhaustion level
26:37
right here. We've got the bullish reversal. Then we broke above. A
26:41
macro formation right here, which I'll talk about in a minute, came up
26:44
and here I got bearish here, bearish here, bearish here. That all
26:48
turned around in here, and then bullish above this and pullish above here,
26:52
and now we're running to the upside. I'm just fitting recapped that a little
26:56
bit. So I said, a ten to sixty water strain, we've seen
26:59
two hundred twenty seven higher from the eighteen forty five to twenty ten six close.
27:04
Then I said, the trade above nineteen forty ninety projects us up for
27:07
twenty two minimum one hundred and four plus maximum. We've attained one hundred and
27:12
thirty one point eight of that so far attaining that. By the way,
27:15
when I say one hundred and four plus maximum, people say, well,
27:19
what does that mean? One hundred and four plus maxim some formations of a
27:22
minimum projection and a quote maximum projection. But if the market is trending in
27:29
that direction, obviously you can see far more than the maxiwem the market is
27:33
currently trending in this direction. That is why we've seen more than the maximum,
27:37
and that's why I say one hundred and four plus maximum if that makes
27:41
sense. Yeah, total total, I get it. So, yeah,
27:44
we're right up near these really ikey levels. If we fell back down through
27:48
that level I was talking about earlier solidly, that'll warrant a pressure again.
27:52
Let me just take another look at this and then very short term, we
27:56
got some tech little formations right here here. This formation right above comes in
28:00
at two six fifty two gives me twenty Look me, I'm sorry, We'll
28:06
were around too many more. Gets here. The problem I gotta get by
28:08
ready dobcat twenty sixty five even minus two per hour starting at one thirty PM,
28:18
So now two thirty so that's going to come down two points, but
28:22
decent break above there, I'll just project this up. We're you know,
28:25
ten dollars fifteen dollars. If we break below this formation down below, that's
28:30
a more substantial formation, and this could really have some uh some down not
28:36
very substantial, but to the tune of stee here got it. So you
28:44
can see forty two dollars to the down side below there that comes in at
28:49
well, this redrow this at two thirty, that's going to come in at
28:53
twenty forty to forty plus two point seven per hour. A decent break below
28:59
there, decent break is going to be around seven dollars. You get a
29:03
risk seven dollars back above it. A decent break below they're probably project this
29:07
doat what about forty two dollars minimum. If we were to break below that
29:11
decently and back up through it decently, that would be an excellent opportunity to
29:14
get long, and then I would look for the market to run right back
29:15
up, take these highs out and keep on going. All right, all
29:18
right, all right, I like it. All right On to bitcoin.
29:22
That was good. The moment you've all been waiting for. You get a
29:26
lot of bitcoin years. It just oh yeah, oh really that's interesting okay,
29:30
so we bitcoins. Well then all right, so then I'm just going
29:34
to go to a higher time train for well your bitcoin advocates out there.
29:40
This is my This is a chart that basically has all the calls, a
29:45
lot of the lines that made calls on over the past couple of years.
29:48
I started analyzing the big quarterback, I guess back in December of two thousand
29:52
and twenty. But we've made a lot. Forget, don't worry about all
29:59
these lines. I know they look ridiculous. This is just biol analysis,
30:02
so that these are just saved. We just had this long bear structure now
30:04
in here, we started a new bull structure up. We had a bearish
30:08
correction against it, and we're in the midst of the new bull structure to
30:11
the outside. So let me get rid of this so it doesn't give you
30:15
any headaches, and we'll drill down to the lower time frame. This is
30:18
now a sixty minute chart. Again, all these lines are from pass calls
30:25
that I've laid right, let me give you a little bit of higher timeframe.
30:30
So again, this looks like a lot of writing, right, but
30:33
you'll notice that this part of the paragraph is all on hold. You'll notice
30:37
that this part of this paragraph is all on hold, and only this part
30:42
of the paragraph is live. Why are the hold That's because I do.
30:48
Each of the markets that I analyze, I analyzed from a hedge a hedge
30:52
fund perspective, so I analyze from higher time frame down to medium time frame,
30:57
down to lower time frame. So, for example, I said here
31:02
the rollover on eleven ten twenty one put this in a bearish trend. I
31:07
warned the sell off should see thirteen thousand dollars per corning from the high of
31:11
sixty nine to three fifty five. We saw fifty four thousand, and four
31:15
hundred and thirty of this, So that means that this sentence has been updated
31:19
every day since November tenth of twenty twenty one. And then they had various
31:26
other bearish projections to the donata side. Then those were all put on hold,
31:30
and I said, the break back above sixteen thousand, two hundred and
31:33
seventy five was bullish. That brought in twenty three thousand and eighty five a
31:38
strength. Then we rolled into a lower time frame bearish correction, which i'd
31:45
no lower talk about in here because it was all accomplished in whatever And then
31:48
I said that the trade back above twenty five thousand, three undred thirty five
31:52
to five eighty five signaled we put in put in a low and are in
31:56
a bullish trend. So we've seen thirteen thousand, seven, one hundred and
32:00
seventy five of that so far. And you'll notice I had a couple other
32:04
a number of other bullsh projections in here, and I said that these are
32:07
off hold. Okay, So these lines all represented different formations that we've broken
32:14
above and had different projections upward here and here and here right now, we're
32:19
in this consolidation phase right now. So down to the very nitty gritty as
32:24
of two o'clock from two o'clock to four o'clock or two o'clock to three o'clock,
32:30
we have a couple of different formations. This formation right above comes in
32:34
at thirty eight nine thirty four ve spot per hour starting at two o'clock PM
32:38
Eastern Standard time. Decent break above there will warn of decent strength, not
32:45
very significant to kind of a small formation decent today with six hundred and twenty
32:49
five. This formation above is a more significant formation that comes in at twenty
32:54
nine to two thirty three thirty nine two thirty three plus two per hour starting
33:00
at two o'clock PM Eastern state of time. And if we fail back below
33:04
this lower formation that's going to commit at thirty eight one eighty five plus fourteen
33:10
per hour, that's going to want a pressure for maybe one thousand dollars According
33:15
twelve hundred dollars A Corp. These aren't like big formations right there. I'm
33:17
just talking very short term. If we break down below this formation right here,
33:22
though, that is a little bit more substantial, that's going to commit
33:24
at thirty six six nine plus five hour starting at two o'clock PM, that
33:31
would project this downward thirty two hundred coring plus. If we were to break
33:37
below there decently and back up through it decently, that would be an excellent
33:39
opportunity to get long because at that point you will have broken below at Barris
33:44
formation, failed to break down and broke the back above it. That should
33:47
propel us right back up towards these highs and beyond. That could also be
33:52
an opportunity to broke below there and came back above. You can get in
33:54
there. Then when we broke back above these other lines, you can move
33:59
your stop up where he stops up and then this thing can really take off.
34:02
And just backing up, sorry me, we get a cleaner chart here
34:07
for you to look at for a second. Just a reminder. This was
34:10
a full structure right here, followed by a bear structure that was completed,
34:15
and this I believe is a we're in the midst of the new bowl structure.
34:19
So I still think in general this has a lot of potential to the
34:22
upside, regardless of whether we pull back and consolidate or do what that do
34:25
whatever. Also, just you know, I said when we came down through
34:30
all this stuff back in May at twenty twenty two, especially when we failed
34:37
back back below all these levels, that was pretty bearish. We came down,
34:39
we dribbled all the way down into here, and then I said,
34:43
if we got back above these levels, that was a sign of strength.
34:45
And we've held above there and then these next levels right up in here,
34:49
we've taken all this stuff out. So these are structural things that show strength
34:53
in the market, a good potential in general to the upside. You got
34:58
any questions on that? So if we go high or how high do you
35:02
think it can go? Well, I don't have a specific projection right here.
35:07
Usually I go off of what are quote projections, which are also different
35:12
measured formations in general. Since a second here, let's just say that this
35:17
formation right here, this structure right was eighty six two hundred from there see
35:23
that to the upside minimum up in here to forty one nine fifty. But
35:30
I don't really have any specific projections. We could talk about that on the
35:32
next show and whatever come back on if I see other things I can tell
35:37
you about. But one things I would just lead with maybe some of your
35:43
viewers is probably one of the most classic mistakes that I see of quote investors
35:52
is let's say they have a run up here and then it starts going against
35:55
them. They'll hold on to it. They'll hold on to it, They'll
35:59
hold that it's going to turn back to the upside, and it keeps on
36:01
going down. And the worst thing that can happen to then is that actually
36:05
does go in their faith, because essentially what they're doing is they're averaging down
36:08
against themselves. Because you have no idea how low a market can go,
36:13
which if better or off getting out of the market when it breaks below a
36:17
formation that an analyst can give you at least a competent analyst and then take
36:22
shots on getting along again and paying for the trades, and taking a number
36:25
of shots all the way down trying to catch your bounce. That will cost
36:29
you far less on the way down. And you can even make money on
36:31
the way down. That'll cost you far less than just holding a position and
36:37
hoping as it goes all the way against you. And I just want to
36:38
give you one classic example of what I'm talking about, so this can be
36:44
seared into everybody's heads, is if you remember this example that I'm about to
36:47
give you and remember it, it can save you catastrophic losses in the future.
36:54
One of the things about being an analyst for thirty years is I've seen
36:58
pretty much anything in the mark you could throw you that that's been throw to
37:01
you over these fast years. And this is the crude oil. And when
37:07
I was analyzing this, this is the adjusted daily continuation truck. Let me
37:12
let me take it off of that for a second, just to make a
37:14
quick point. So when I was analyzing this, I have big embarrassed projections
37:17
in here and calling the market for about forty dollars to the damn side.
37:22
Now I want to tell you that when it got down into here, it
37:24
got really ugly, okay. And never at any point did I say this
37:30
market is quote over sold. The reason why I'd never say that something is
37:35
over sold or overbought, Okay, I mean, I know that we need
37:39
to use that terminology in certain situations, in a certain perspective. But never
37:45
at one time on the way down here, did I say this is just
37:47
too cheap, you got to buy it. Okay. Now, what I
37:51
mean by that is, nobody ever thought that crude oil see this warzonal line
37:55
I have here, that's zero. Nobody ever thought the crude oil could go
37:59
to negative per barro, of course, but the valuation of this in one
38:04
day went from zero dollars a barrow down to negative forty dollars a borrow.
38:09
That's forty thousand dollars per contract. Let alone, if you bought it at
38:14
ten dollars above there and thought it was a great deal, that'd be fifty
38:16
grand a contract. Anybody, unless you had a very small position that could
38:21
have gotten blown out of their entire portfolio on a situation like this, Okay.
38:28
And I could show you other examples in natural gas in the past where
38:32
we've had insane moves, and nobody ever thought was a was quote possible,
38:37
right, these kind of moves that you've seen here where I came in and
38:42
the market was double limit up overnight. For those of you that don't know
38:45
what live it up means in natural gas, at the time, it was
38:47
seven hundred ticks or seven thousand dollars of contract. They for the people running
38:52
the overnight forgot to trip the trigger that stops the market. So the exchange's
39:00
decided to double the limit up, and it opened double limit up overnight fourteen
39:05
hundred ticks. That's fourteen thousand dollars per contract, and a number of traders
39:09
just blew out that day, and one guy knew lost four and a half
39:13
million dollars that day and by afternoon if you just held, if you would
39:15
have been able to hang on to his position, would have made half of
39:17
it back. But that's just the point. Wasn't able to get out of
39:21
it and didn't have any protection against it. So I'll make this point to
39:25
say that in big moves, if we're going back to the bitcoin, let
39:30
me just pull that beck Ou real quick. Get back to her what we
39:34
were talking about. So I hope I didn't in bitcoin on the way down
39:37
here, if you were a long bitcoin you could have called a nice ride.
39:42
And then if you have somebody, whether it's me or somebody else,
39:45
whatever, somebody who's competing in the market, understands what they're doing it having
39:49
bearished calls. You don't have to just hold the bitcoin and wait till it
39:52
goes up. You can make money on the way down and then get long
39:55
at it, get long at different levels on you know, down lower to
39:59
ride it back up. Sure, What job job want to do is just
40:01
buy something and hold on to it so it goes way against you, and
40:06
then be telling all your friends when it goes back into your favor how smart
40:08
you will. Okay, because that is a recipe for disaster, because just
40:13
like I showed you in the crude, you never know how far this market
40:17
is going to go against you. You know, though, there's a lot
40:20
of market sayings out there that I think are nonsense. One market saying that
40:24
I think is true is the markets can stay irrational. The markets can stay
40:30
irrational far longer, right, all right? I think that. Just tell
40:38
us again where we find your work, how we connect with you on the
40:42
web, your Mike, Okay, just put it right up there. More
40:45
Analytics go to more analytics dot com. If you are interested in getting a
40:51
free trial of any of the markets that I treat, just give me a
40:54
call on my phone right there and I'll set you up with a free trial.
40:58
It's not listed on the website because of issues. Were website all right?
41:04
Excellent? You'll find the link in the show notes to this interview on
41:07
Financial Survival Network dot com. Got a question for Mike or myself, shoot
41:12
me an email kl atcarrielots dot com. And while you're at the site to
41:17
just go sign up for your free newsletter. Mike. We'll talk to you
41:21
again real soon. Thanks for stopping by, Harry. It was a great
41:23
honor. Thank you very much, sir, I appreciate it. Thanks for
41:27
listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times.
41:32
For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now
41:39
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