Javier Blas on Lessons from Closing Hormuz (So Far)

Columbia Energy Exchange · Aug 4, 2026 · 1m

Over the past five months, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for extended stretches of time, disrupting roughly 10 to 15 million barrels of oil supply each day. It is the biggest energy supply shock in history, but global energy markets are defying historical expectations. Despite lost production and heightened geopolitical instability, crude oil prices are far below the catastrophic levels many analysts predicted early on. But beneath the headline numbers, the broader energy system tells a far more complicated story. Refining margins have spiked to unprecedented levels, global coal…