Latest / North Side Territory: A Chicago Cubs Podcast / Cubs mailbag, Part 1: Would a Justin Steele extension make sense? Plus trade ideas, payroll expectations and more
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: I think the easiest way to do this is you
- 0:02Speaker 1: just build a good offensive team that hits the ball
- 0:04Speaker 1: hard and on a line and doesn't rely on the
- 0:07Speaker 1: home run. Welcome into north Side Territory, Foul Territory Networks
- 0:17Speaker 1: Cubs Podcast. I'm Sahade Sharma with my partner Patrick Mooney,
- 0:21Speaker 1: where your Cubs beat writers over at the Athletic Patrick.
- 0:25Speaker 1: Today we're doing an always fun mail bag episode. The
- 0:29Speaker 1: readers came out in force, the listeners came out in
- 0:31Speaker 1: force on Twitter and gave us plenty of things to address.
- 0:37Speaker 1: I always enjoy these because fans have plenty to complain
- 0:41Speaker 1: about or like, well, just questions the answered, but a
- 0:45Speaker 1: lot of it. You know, after another eighty three and
- 0:48Speaker 1: seventy nine season, they're gonna that it's not always the
- 0:51Speaker 1: most positive way of looking at things, And that's perfectly fine.
- 0:56Speaker 1: Why don't we just get right to it. What do
- 0:57Speaker 1: we got to kick it off?
- 1:00Speaker 2: Well?
- 1:00Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean you said, we love the mailbag because
- 1:04Speaker 3: our readers and listeners. It helps us like know what
- 1:07Speaker 3: people are talking about, what they're thinking about, helps us
- 1:10Speaker 3: like formulate ideas and articulate kind of what we're seeing
- 1:14Speaker 3: in this account aptly named Cubs account must know, Sahadi
- 1:19Speaker 3: that you are the resident Wriggly weather conspiracy theorist, And
- 1:26Speaker 3: so we've got question. Jed pointed to the variability of
- 1:32Speaker 3: the wind at Wrigley for this year's downturn and offensive performance.
- 1:36Speaker 3: Does he have explicit plans to address that? How would
- 1:40Speaker 3: you address it? Morell and Wisdom weren't able to beat
- 1:43Speaker 3: the wind any better than the lesser exit philosophy guys.
- 1:50Speaker 1: Yeah, So, I mean, I think weather it is fascinating
- 1:53Speaker 1: at wrily because it has changed over the years and
- 1:57Speaker 1: the wind doesn't seem to blow out as much. I
- 2:00Speaker 1: also think, like we need to be careful about like
- 2:03Speaker 1: parsing what Jed said, Like we need to really listen
- 2:07Speaker 1: to what Jed saying. I think Jed was explaining individual
- 2:10Speaker 1: performances more than making excuses for the team or talking
- 2:14Speaker 1: about future team building like it was it definitely impacted
- 2:20Speaker 1: the individual, but the teams like as a whole, like
- 2:24Speaker 1: both teams played in it, right, So like you can't
- 2:28Speaker 1: use that as an excuse now, I think, you know,
- 2:34Speaker 1: it's interesting. There are different ways to look at this,
- 2:39Speaker 1: someone suggested. Brusce Ll Vine suggested, like you need to
- 2:41Speaker 1: get guys that hit the ball even further right, and
- 2:48Speaker 1: that's how you address it. And I'm not sure if
- 2:51Speaker 1: that's the case. Remember when the Yankees came to town and
- 2:55Speaker 1: someone knockdown Juan Soto, someone knockdown I mean, I don't
- 3:00Speaker 1: know if there's like that, Like you always are going
- 3:03Speaker 1: to go back to that Patrick Wisdom one that he
- 3:05Speaker 1: did whatever one hundred and twelve miles per hour that
- 3:07Speaker 1: should have been out on the street and somehow it
- 3:10Speaker 1: got knocked down. And then one that Pedro Pages hit
- 3:13Speaker 1: like ends up in the basket because he just hit it,
- 3:16Speaker 1: you know, thirty feet uh and you know, to the right,
- 3:20Speaker 1: and that changes everything about it. I don't think. I
- 3:24Speaker 1: don't think you can go about building a team based
- 3:28Speaker 1: on the weather because you don't know what the weather
- 3:30Speaker 1: is going to be. There was something that Jed said
- 3:33Speaker 1: that I think got completely overlooked and I need to
- 3:35Speaker 1: do research on it, but he said, it's like all
- 3:39Speaker 1: the times it was blowing out was when they were
- 3:41Speaker 1: on the road, and and that that that, to me,
- 3:46Speaker 1: is the thing. It was just randomness that they were
- 3:49Speaker 1: on the road, that they were at home when it
- 3:51Speaker 1: was all the times that was blowing in so you
- 3:53Speaker 1: can't build a team based on the wind blowing in.
- 3:57Speaker 1: I think the easiest way to do this is you
- 3:59Speaker 1: just build build it. You know, build a good offensive
- 4:01Speaker 1: team that hits the ball hard and on a line
- 4:04Speaker 1: it doesn't rely on the home run. So you know
- 4:08Speaker 1: that that's that's the simple answer, you know, Like, yes,
- 4:12Speaker 1: exit velocity. Guys like Patrick Wisdom and Christopher Morrell were
- 4:15Speaker 1: dinged by this in a certain way because they had
- 4:18Speaker 1: balls knocked down. But Cody Bellinger certainly was impacted by this,
- 4:22Speaker 1: as we saw with his home road splits that were insane.
- 4:26Speaker 1: Like uh, Saya Suzuki had better road numbers than home numbers,
- 4:30Speaker 1: but he was really good at home still, he was
- 4:32Speaker 1: basically like his season at home was basically the season
- 4:37Speaker 1: Ian Half had overall. Uh, that's really good, Like ye,
- 4:42Speaker 1: happ had a really good season offensively. So you know,
- 4:46Speaker 1: I don't think this is something that you would dress
- 4:50Speaker 1: as like. I don't. I don't think the Cubs should
- 4:53Speaker 1: have the wind in mind when looking at the future.
- 4:57Speaker 1: I think analyzing what happened in the past, it's important
- 5:01Speaker 1: to understand that the wind blew in a lot at Wrigley.
- 5:05Speaker 1: So if you're looking at Cody Bellinger's overall numbers and
- 5:10Speaker 1: saying one o nine way to runs grade plus wasn't
- 5:12Speaker 1: good enough. Okay, what what happened this season? Why was
- 5:17Speaker 1: it a one o nine? It's the same way you
- 5:19Speaker 1: should have analyzes twenty twenty three that whatever it was,
- 5:22Speaker 1: one thirty way to run screader plus. That's awesome, that's
- 5:25Speaker 1: a you know, a borderline star uh production. Uh, but
- 5:30Speaker 1: what happened? How did he get there? Right? I think
- 5:32Speaker 1: he's somewhere in between that one o nine and that
- 5:34Speaker 1: whatever one thirty four that he had in twenty twenty three,
- 5:37Speaker 1: because the wind did play a factor at Wrigley. So
- 5:41Speaker 1: I think it's more about analyzing what happened than trying
- 5:45Speaker 1: to build a team for the future and understanding the
- 5:48Speaker 1: value of the players that play at Wrigley and how
- 5:51Speaker 1: that dinged them. And also I think you have to
- 5:55Speaker 1: also look at the positives, Like we talked about shows
- 5:59Speaker 1: the showdos season and you know, jameson tyone doesn't strike
- 6:03Speaker 1: out a lot of guys and doesn't put a lot
- 6:05Speaker 1: of balls on the ground, like you have to factor
- 6:07Speaker 1: that in. So, like these these types of things, it
- 6:12Speaker 1: goes both ways. Like the offense could get better next
- 6:14Speaker 1: year if the winds blowing out. But now you have
- 6:16Speaker 1: to account for pitchers and how much they miss bats
- 6:19Speaker 1: showed I think will be okay because he misses so
- 6:21Speaker 1: many bats and he doesn't walk guys. You have to
- 6:25Speaker 1: wonder about jameson Tyne regressing a little bit at Wrigley.
- 6:29Speaker 1: I haven't looked at his home road splits that maybe
- 6:31Speaker 1: that's maybe that's something interesting to look at. I just
- 6:36Speaker 1: wouldn't overreact to this.
- 6:38Speaker 3: I mean, Council is on the record towards the end
- 6:40Speaker 3: of the season being like, no, you don't change anything
- 6:44Speaker 3: in terms of roster construction, right, just saying like, we
- 6:47Speaker 3: don't know what the weather's going to be next year.
- 6:49Speaker 3: Do you know what the weather's going to be next year?
- 6:51Speaker 3: Like he was acknowledged it was different, I think, but
- 6:56Speaker 3: was not saying the Cubs should go about things any
- 6:59Speaker 3: different because of that. So that that seems pretty He's
- 7:04Speaker 3: he's had a pretty definitive when he was dissuh that,
- 7:10Speaker 3: which is a conversation that went all the way back
- 7:12Speaker 3: to Opening Day.
- 7:12Speaker 1: With you and him right right, Yes, oddly enough, I
- 7:16Speaker 1: brought it up in Texas, how Wrigley doesn't play like
- 7:20Speaker 1: like one like people assume it does and and the
- 7:23Speaker 1: wind is really hard to predict now and it's just
- 7:26Speaker 1: not what it used to be. Uh and and and
- 7:29Speaker 1: I immediately got labeled the weather guy. Uh uh So,
- 7:35Speaker 1: so yeah, you're apparently I did not expect it to
- 7:40Speaker 1: become such a big topic for the Cubs. In reality,
- 7:45Speaker 1: I just I've always found it fascinating that it's kind
- 7:48Speaker 1: of changed. And I think a lot of it, and
- 7:49Speaker 1: we've talked about this on the podcast, a lot of
- 7:52Speaker 1: it has to do with I mean, climate change is
- 7:54Speaker 1: certainly an aspect here, but like the video boards and
- 7:57Speaker 1: and the and the below us the club that they
- 8:02Speaker 1: have below the press, the Catalina Club, that has changed
- 8:06Speaker 1: the wind patterns because that used to be open there,
- 8:09Speaker 1: so that means the wind could come through, meaning like
- 8:12Speaker 1: if it was blowing out, that wind was coming through there.
- 8:15Speaker 1: Now that they don't have that big open space to
- 8:18Speaker 1: have the wind come through, I think that impacts it.
- 8:20Speaker 1: It certainly is something that they talk about at Fenway,
- 8:23Speaker 1: where like the upper deck or like a hind home
- 8:27Speaker 1: plate wasn't there. I guess the press bots and other
- 8:29Speaker 1: things weren't there back in the day, and the ball
- 8:32Speaker 1: used to go farther at Fenway Park. I mean, it's
- 8:35Speaker 1: certainly it's real, right, Like you build something to block
- 8:38Speaker 1: the wind, it's going to impact how the ball carries.
- 8:41Speaker 1: So it's interesting. I you know, I don't know enough
- 8:45Speaker 1: about whether to really like put me science behind it,
- 8:48Speaker 1: but I find it fascinating and just observationally, it's it's
- 8:53Speaker 1: it's harder to predict. I used to feel like it
- 8:56Speaker 1: is eighty five degrees and sunny and it is blowing
- 8:59Speaker 1: out out. I don't need to look at the flags,
- 9:02Speaker 1: and then you get to the ballpark and it's like,
- 9:04Speaker 1: why is it blowing in? That used to not happen.
- 9:07Speaker 1: So it's just a little weird. And I'm sure there's
- 9:11Speaker 1: some science behind it, and someone smarter than us could
- 9:15Speaker 1: quit explain it. But yeah, I don't think I think
- 9:19Speaker 1: Counsel's answer is the right answer. You don't. You just
- 9:21Speaker 1: build a good team, Just find good players, you know,
- 9:24Speaker 1: and you'll you're both playing under the same condition. So
- 9:30Speaker 1: beat the other team, just be better than them. I
- 9:31Speaker 1: think it's the bottom line.
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- 10:35Speaker 1: Patrick. We got a question from Aaron Wilder, and it's
- 10:38Speaker 1: something that we you know, we you and I have
- 10:40Speaker 1: bandied about, yeah, and we have touch talked about this
- 10:43Speaker 1: a little bit. You're definitely in tune with this. Should
- 10:47Speaker 1: this be the off season that Jed and company try
- 10:50Speaker 1: to work out an extension with Justin Steele. He's still
- 10:52Speaker 1: only twenty nine, three really good seasons behind him, and
- 10:55Speaker 1: I think we all know he loves it in Chicago,
- 10:57Speaker 1: so there should be common ground to find a beneficial
- 11:00Speaker 1: extension for both sides.
- 11:03Speaker 3: Definitely anticipate this being a thing this offseason. I don't
- 11:08Speaker 3: know where it goes, but Steel's camp and the Cups
- 11:13Speaker 3: front office would not be doing their respective jobs if
- 11:16Speaker 3: they did not at least explore this idea. And you know,
- 11:21Speaker 3: these conversations typically happen kind of in that arbitration window
- 11:28Speaker 3: and then sometimes it picks back up in spring training
- 11:35Speaker 3: heavy and I would say a Steels agency Wasserman does
- 11:38Speaker 3: have a pretty good track record here of like they're
- 11:43Speaker 3: very aggressive and effective. But you know they did that
- 11:47Speaker 3: deal for Tyler Glass. Now you Darvish has gotten an
- 11:53Speaker 3: extension in San Diego. I feel like they are not
- 11:56Speaker 3: quite as adamant as Scott Bord when it comes to
- 12:01Speaker 3: kind of testing free agency. Now, having said all that,
- 12:05Speaker 3: I don't know if there is that fit. I mean,
- 12:07Speaker 3: there is an idea from Steel's side, which would you know,
- 12:12Speaker 3: would look at probably like a five year term. Right,
- 12:14Speaker 3: He's got three more arbitration cases and you'd want to
- 12:17Speaker 3: get a little more security on the back end. That
- 12:23Speaker 3: is where that is kind of the roadmap. I would
- 12:26Speaker 3: say there are some comps out there if you look
- 12:28Speaker 3: at five year deals. But at the same time, like
- 12:33Speaker 3: this front office is a little different.
- 12:36Speaker 1: You know, it.
- 12:37Speaker 3: Continues to evolve. Jed's been here a long time, but
- 12:41Speaker 3: you have Carter Hawkins running things now. There's been some
- 12:45Speaker 3: changes restructurings around the front office. So I'm not sure
- 12:49Speaker 3: if there's like great historical comps from the Cup side
- 12:52Speaker 3: in terms of like pushing in for something like this.
- 12:55Speaker 3: I also don't think, well, their books are not in
- 12:58Speaker 3: bad shape. It's not the blank slate that it was
- 13:02Speaker 3: a couple of years ago when they were signing Nico
- 13:04Speaker 3: and Hap to those sorts of deals. And on the
- 13:07Speaker 3: pitching side, they aren't kind of as desperate as they
- 13:10Speaker 3: were after trading away all those position players at the
- 13:15Speaker 3: twenty one deadline. So I think it was important that
- 13:18Speaker 3: Steele pitched at the end of last year just to
- 13:20Speaker 3: give everyone sort of another snapshot. I think they wanted
- 13:26Speaker 3: to see him do it this year and kind of
- 13:30Speaker 3: prove that he could build off that All Star season.
- 13:32Speaker 3: And he did that in large part, but there was
- 13:38Speaker 3: a freak injury at the beginning and arm injury towards
- 13:40Speaker 3: the end, and you know, he winds up with twenty
- 13:42Speaker 3: four starts and a tick under one hundred and thirty
- 13:46Speaker 3: five innings of you know, real almost excellence when when
- 13:52Speaker 3: he's healthy but still not quite there as that like
- 13:57Speaker 3: thirty starts every year. Guy, I feel like I realized
- 14:02Speaker 3: I'm talking in circles here, But that's that's kind of
- 14:05Speaker 3: what the conversation is gonna be, right, of like, of
- 14:07Speaker 3: course you love Chicago. Of course the Cubs want Justin
- 14:14Speaker 3: Steel around, but they already have him around and under
- 14:17Speaker 3: club control. And Steel's gonna get paid very well through
- 14:19Speaker 3: arbitration because he does put up some of those numbers.
- 14:23Speaker 3: So I'm he's almost thirty as well, right, and like,
- 14:28Speaker 3: how many were you an attack on to the end
- 14:31Speaker 3: of that, knowing that pitchers get hurt and he's been well,
- 14:35Speaker 3: I'm not fully healthy, hasn't had that like major injury
- 14:40Speaker 3: that wipes out a euch chunk of his career major
- 14:43Speaker 3: league career. So I don't know what's your kind of
- 14:47Speaker 3: reside of like what would you do if you?
- 14:49Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm looking at this in like a
- 14:52Speaker 1: Jed Carter point of view, and I and I start
- 14:56Speaker 1: to wonder, like why why why are you extending a
- 14:59Speaker 1: guy that? Okay, so this was his age twenty eighth season,
- 15:03Speaker 1: But the way this works with age X season is
- 15:07Speaker 1: is it cuts off at June thirtieth. He's a July
- 15:09Speaker 1: eleventh birthday, so it's almost his you know, if he
- 15:12Speaker 1: was born two weeks earlier, we'd be talking about his
- 15:14Speaker 1: age twenty nine season, right. He turned twenty nine in July.
- 15:18Speaker 1: So let's say next season he turns thirty, the season
- 15:21Speaker 1: after that he turns thirty one, and the season after
- 15:24Speaker 1: that he turns thirty two. Right, So like we're talking
- 15:28Speaker 1: about three more seasons that he's under control in his
- 15:32Speaker 1: early thirties essentially, and then the extension would be like
- 15:36Speaker 1: mid thirties, right, Like if he gets added what let's
- 15:39Speaker 1: say a realistic extension adds two or three years, right,
- 15:44Speaker 1: that's what you try to do. If those are guaranteed,
- 15:48Speaker 1: that is just not happening. That's not how Jen and
- 15:51Speaker 1: Carter are going to do business. I don't believe that.
- 15:53Speaker 1: I don't believe that they would do that. Give him
- 15:56Speaker 1: three more guaranteed years. He has been relatively healthy since
- 16:01Speaker 1: he's been up in the big leagues. There's been like
- 16:03Speaker 1: random injuries, the elbow stuff pops up every now and then,
- 16:07Speaker 1: but he was like the big reason why he pitched
- 16:11Speaker 1: at the end is because he was healthy. He was
- 16:13Speaker 1: cleared to go. He had nothing wrong with him, Like
- 16:16Speaker 1: the scans came back clean. It was nothing wrong. So
- 16:18Speaker 1: I know people didn't fully agree with that. Fans didn't.
- 16:21Speaker 1: But he was fine, Like it was emphasized to us
- 16:24Speaker 1: over and over again, how he was fine. And neither
- 16:27Speaker 1: the Cubs nor Justin Steel had any desire to jeopardize
- 16:30Speaker 1: his future, right, so they so that that should be
- 16:35Speaker 1: a non issue. It's going to be an issue with fans,
- 16:37Speaker 1: I understand, but I don't think it is. But he
- 16:40Speaker 1: does have Tommy John in his history. Like the reason
- 16:43Speaker 1: he's an older guy right now going through ARB is
- 16:46Speaker 1: because his development got stunted by Tommy John right, and
- 16:51Speaker 1: and he was, and that's why it took him so
- 16:53Speaker 1: long to get to the big leagues. I just, you know,
- 16:56Speaker 1: I just don't think it's the way they're going to
- 16:58Speaker 1: do things like San Diego and aj S Feller, they'd
- 17:00Speaker 1: be like, we need this guy. He's guaranteed one hundred
- 17:04Speaker 1: and forty innings at least, which in today's game is
- 17:06Speaker 1: a lot, right, And that's I mean, I think that's
- 17:09Speaker 1: kind of how you feel, like he's going to give
- 17:11Speaker 1: you one hundred and thirty hundred and forty innings and
- 17:13Speaker 1: if not, and if he's healthy, then he can give
- 17:15Speaker 1: you one hundred and seventy five and that in today's game,
- 17:18Speaker 1: that's just a lot, like I know, yeah, yeah, like
- 17:22Speaker 1: a high level like he was according to fangrafs, he
- 17:26Speaker 1: was four point eight war last year. He was three
- 17:28Speaker 1: war this year. That's a very good pitcher for only
- 17:30Speaker 1: twenty four starts. He's he's great, Like I I'm he's
- 17:35Speaker 1: convinced me that he's a legit, you know to note
- 17:38Speaker 1: right on a good team. Uh. And and I have
- 17:42Speaker 1: not like I don't like I'm not concerned about his production.
- 17:47Speaker 1: It's like and I and I do wonder about the
- 17:50Speaker 1: agent curve with him if you want, like the very
- 17:53Speaker 1: simple easy comp to go is with Lester, right, And
- 17:56Speaker 1: the reason the Cubs felt comfortable giving Lester all that
- 17:59Speaker 1: money is because they thought he'd age well. Right, They
- 18:03Speaker 1: compared him to Andy Pettitt and his aging curve. So yeah,
- 18:08Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think it's what the Cubs would
- 18:13Speaker 1: do this front office. I just don't see them doing it.
- 18:17Speaker 1: Me personally, I under I can understand that because of
- 18:21Speaker 1: his age, and you brought it up. They're in a
- 18:23Speaker 1: better spot with their pitching development. You know, five years ago,
- 18:27Speaker 1: seven years ago, whatever, they couldn't develop pitching. They had
- 18:31Speaker 1: to like get it wherever they could, and they would
- 18:33Speaker 1: have to pay for it. So I think this is
- 18:35Speaker 1: a different situation. And I don't I don't know if
- 18:41Speaker 1: this is the off season where the Cubs are going
- 18:44Speaker 1: to be aggressive with it. I think they they can.
- 18:47Speaker 1: They can be patient and if he and if they
- 18:50Speaker 1: need to pay a little bit more because he throws
- 18:52Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty innings and that puts up a
- 18:53Speaker 1: three e r A again, I think they'd be willing
- 18:56Speaker 1: to do that happily. And they'll also have more information
- 19:02Speaker 1: on Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, javisad Who, Kate Horton, all
- 19:07Speaker 1: those Rightiznsky, they'll have more information on those guys if
- 19:11Speaker 1: three of them emerge and throw one hundred and twenty
- 19:13Speaker 1: innings this year or something like that. Right then they're like,
- 19:16Speaker 1: why are we paying this guy twenty five million a year?
- 19:19Speaker 1: Why would we pay this guy twenty five million a year?
- 19:21Speaker 1: Right then they start talking about and again I'm just thinking,
- 19:25Speaker 1: like they do. They start talking thinking about trading him
- 19:28Speaker 1: or something like that for process, right, Like, I'm not
- 19:32Speaker 1: saying they should. I'm trying to think like this mindset
- 19:36Speaker 1: of like.
- 19:36Speaker 3: That's a while to think that a steel extension question
- 19:40Speaker 3: leads to them possibly, But I get what you're saying.
- 19:43Speaker 1: I say, I'm not saying. I'm just saying, that's the
- 19:47Speaker 1: thought process that you have to inter because it is
- 19:49Speaker 1: like a big I remember Jed saying this soon after
- 19:55Speaker 1: I don't know, it was probably in the middle of
- 19:57Speaker 1: the non rebuild rebuild uh where where they're really struggling,
- 20:02Speaker 1: and he was asked like, what what have you what
- 20:04Speaker 1: did you learn from the first you know that that
- 20:08Speaker 1: last group that you want with And basically he said
- 20:11Speaker 1: you gotta I'd rather trade someone a year early than
- 20:14Speaker 1: a year late. So, like, I think that's kind of
- 20:19Speaker 1: their mindset now, like that that's part of you have
- 20:22Speaker 1: to be willing to move these guys. There's no such
- 20:25Speaker 1: thing as like, you know, forever Cubs or whatever. I
- 20:30Speaker 1: don't I don't think they're going to look at it
- 20:33Speaker 1: that way. I'm just again, I'm not reporting that that
- 20:36Speaker 1: Justin Steele would be traded a year from now or
- 20:38Speaker 1: anything like that. I'm saying you have to think like
- 20:42Speaker 1: they do, and I think that's that that's something that
- 20:46Speaker 1: a year from now, if enough pictures have developed and
- 20:49Speaker 1: they feel good about where they are, then it's something
- 20:52Speaker 1: that they may think about. I don't know. I'm just saying, like,
- 20:56Speaker 1: do not assume extension with this group, especially with pitching.
- 21:00Speaker 1: Pitching can get hurt at any moment, so and they
- 21:03Speaker 1: understand that. And at his age, I just think it
- 21:06Speaker 1: it may not make the most sense, like get it
- 21:11Speaker 1: may just make the most sense to keep them and
- 21:12Speaker 1: let them walk. But yeah, yeah, I think that may
- 21:15Speaker 1: be the best thing. If he's pitching as well as
- 21:17Speaker 1: it looks like he's going to.
- 21:19Speaker 3: Well that was that's actually a good segue here. We
- 21:21Speaker 3: had two questions that we wanted to kind of lump
- 21:25Speaker 3: together because we're already conjuring trade scenarios. Kyle Welch asked,
- 21:30Speaker 3: what's your best guess on a Michael Bush style trade
- 21:33Speaker 3: for twenty twenty five, you know that type of move
- 21:36Speaker 3: that comes totally out of nowhere? And Paul Casco asks,
- 21:42Speaker 3: is Nico Horner going to be traded so that Matt
- 21:45Speaker 3: Shaw can take over second base? The floor is yours sided? Yeah,
- 21:50Speaker 3: I mean is Nico going to be traded? I'm not
- 21:53Speaker 3: saying one hundred percent yet, Like I think these kind
- 21:57Speaker 3: of tie in together because Nico is maybe.
- 21:59Speaker 1: That that Michael Bush style trade. I think Nico they're
- 22:04Speaker 1: going to explore that I and I think, understanding this
- 22:09Speaker 1: front office, they're going to explore almost anything. Like I
- 22:13Speaker 1: don't think there is someone on this roster that you
- 22:17Speaker 1: could say like Nope, they're not moving him, Like I
- 22:21Speaker 1: guess not maybe Petek Armstrong, but.
- 22:25Speaker 3: The trade guys and p Yeah, probably right.
- 22:30Speaker 1: It's like, so it's your outfield, right, which you're kind
- 22:32Speaker 1: of locked into, then.
- 22:35Speaker 3: Probably keep but yes.
- 22:38Speaker 1: Yes, probably keeping Shoda. But yeah, like there's just not
- 22:42Speaker 1: much that you'd say, like even like if they find
- 22:45Speaker 1: the right deal, like if Peritis, like if they decide
- 22:48Speaker 1: like they want to shift in that direction. Obviously, Dancy
- 22:51Speaker 1: Swanson's contract makes him hard to move, but like, I
- 22:55Speaker 1: just don't think there's anyone you can look at and say, like, Nope,
- 22:59Speaker 1: they're not moving him. And when you say, what's your
- 23:02Speaker 1: best guess on a Michael Busch style trade, so that
- 23:04Speaker 1: that doesn't mean like a that was essentially a challenge
- 23:07Speaker 1: trade right prospects for prospect a move that totally comes
- 23:12Speaker 1: out of nowhere. What if they trade Michael Bush? What
- 23:16Speaker 1: if what if they think they can upgrade first base
- 23:19Speaker 1: and go from a one twenty way to run strade
- 23:21Speaker 1: A plus to one forty five and that that would
- 23:24Speaker 1: be like getting Blad Junior. Right, I don't think that
- 23:28Speaker 1: blue Jays are moving him, Like there's there's rumors now
- 23:31Speaker 1: that the blue Jays are are like going all in
- 23:33Speaker 1: in free agency and going to make like a Godfather
- 23:35Speaker 1: offered to Jan Soto or something, right, Like, I I
- 23:40Speaker 1: think the blue Jays are more and like we're saving
- 23:42Speaker 1: our jobs phase than then let's trade our superstar first
- 23:48Speaker 1: baseman whose father you know who grew up in Canada
- 23:52Speaker 1: and whose father played for mon Yeah, yeah, I don't
- 23:56Speaker 1: think I don't think you can do that. But that's
- 23:59Speaker 1: that's an out side the box way, right. So what
- 24:02Speaker 1: I'm saying here is this front office looks at everything
- 24:08Speaker 1: value based assessments. Right, what is what is Michael Bush's war? Okay,
- 24:15Speaker 1: it's X right, it's let's say I don't have it
- 24:18Speaker 1: up right now, but let's say it's three. Right. Can
- 24:20Speaker 1: we get a four and a half win player? Can
- 24:23Speaker 1: we upgrade to a four and a half win player?
- 24:26Speaker 1: Can we upgrade to a six win player? Right? That?
- 24:29Speaker 4: Like?
- 24:30Speaker 1: And what if that player is you know it? So
- 24:33Speaker 1: his value according to fangrabs is two point three? What
- 24:35Speaker 1: if you can get a five win player? Double that? Right?
- 24:38Speaker 1: And the cost? Like, and then you look at the
- 24:40Speaker 1: cost for that and and that's how they're doing it.
- 24:42Speaker 1: That's how they're going to do it. Can you upgrade
- 24:45Speaker 1: at second base? What if you trade Nico? Okay? What
- 24:48Speaker 1: are you getting for Nico? And who are you replacing
- 24:50Speaker 1: it with? That's how they're looking at it, value based, Like,
- 24:53Speaker 1: so is what you're getting plus who you're replacing him
- 24:57Speaker 1: more valuable? Or does it help your team in a
- 25:00Speaker 1: different way that that's how they're going to look at it.
- 25:03Speaker 1: So they'll look at any area and say, can we
- 25:05Speaker 1: upgrade this spot? Is it more like and even like
- 25:09Speaker 1: they're not going to trade Pete or Armstorm, but even him,
- 25:12Speaker 1: they'll look at it in that way. If they get
- 25:14Speaker 1: some crazy offer for him, they'll look at it in
- 25:18Speaker 1: that way. Because it's very much like, this isn't gut Field,
- 25:22Speaker 1: This isn't a J. Preller style Dave Dombrowski's style. This
- 25:25Speaker 1: is very much like what what are the value? What's
- 25:28Speaker 1: the value here? Like what can we get? What? What
- 25:31Speaker 1: are we losing? And what are we gaining? And are
- 25:34Speaker 1: we a better team because of that? That's how they're
- 25:36Speaker 1: going to look at it. So who could be moved?
- 25:40Speaker 1: I just wouldn't rule out very many people other than
- 25:43Speaker 1: the guys that they can't move. And yes, I agree
- 25:45Speaker 1: with you showed a You just put show down that
- 25:47Speaker 1: list because it's like it's really hard to find a
- 25:50Speaker 1: picture at that cost, Like that value is going to
- 25:53Speaker 1: be really hard. So it's dollar per war right essentially,
- 25:57Speaker 1: And that's kind of like what they're going to look at.
- 26:00Speaker 3: I read this as I thought of your piece after
- 26:03Speaker 3: the trade deadline of how the Cubs went after Logan
- 26:07Speaker 3: o'happy that a Bush style trade or moving Nico, Like,
- 26:12Speaker 3: do they do that type of deal to upgrade a
- 26:15Speaker 3: catching situation that is kind of a glaring need. There
- 26:20Speaker 3: isn't a great obvious like free agent option that's a
- 26:25Speaker 3: clear upgrade that that's kind of where I went immediately,
- 26:29Speaker 3: not saying that's what's going to happen, but like you said,
- 26:32Speaker 3: they'll exhaust every trade possibility this winter.
- 26:36Speaker 1: Yeah, catcher's going to be a priority, right, but I
- 26:40Speaker 1: don't know if it's easily done. I think that's that
- 26:44Speaker 1: you know, we've talked about this and we'll continue to
- 26:46Speaker 1: talk about it. I just don't know. You know, they're
- 26:49Speaker 1: not going to be able to pry O Hoppy away.
- 26:50Speaker 1: There's there's got to be other guys, and I don't
- 26:52Speaker 1: know how easy it'll be to to get any of
- 26:56Speaker 1: those catchers. But they'll certainly explore it. And I appreciate
- 27:00Speaker 1: that they did that, Like you know, they tried to
- 27:02Speaker 1: get creative at the deadline, and we'll see what happens.
- 27:06Speaker 1: We have time for one more you think, Patrick, And
- 27:11Speaker 1: I'm not sure if I said this, but we'll do
- 27:13Speaker 1: a second mail bag piece this week because we got
- 27:15Speaker 1: so many good questions from you guys, so there's gonna
- 27:18Speaker 1: be plenty of Don't don't think we didn't. We're skipping
- 27:21Speaker 1: your question. You have a chance to be in the
- 27:23Speaker 1: next episode as well. Aaron Becker or maybe Baker has
- 27:30Speaker 1: has a two part question. He says, with the number
- 27:34Speaker 1: of position players already under contract, we've kind of touched
- 27:36Speaker 1: on this, but how do you how do the Cubs
- 27:38Speaker 1: reshape this roster enough that it's not just a case
- 27:41Speaker 1: of running it back and hoping for improvement. I think
- 27:45Speaker 1: we we answered that to a degree. I'm not sure
- 27:49Speaker 1: if you have a specific idea there, Patrick that goes
- 27:53Speaker 1: beyond this. I you know, my my other like, I
- 27:59Speaker 1: don't love this idea because you know, I mean, maybe
- 28:04Speaker 1: you see if I and Half's willing to be moved, right, Like,
- 28:08Speaker 1: is he willing to do that? I don't think he's.
- 28:11Speaker 3: That seems like a waste of time.
- 28:14Speaker 1: Right, And it could's that one, right, I agree, But
- 28:18Speaker 1: other than that, like we've we've touched on everything, right,
- 28:22Speaker 1: Like what it is? I the more I think about it,
- 28:25Speaker 1: the more I do think it's hard. How do you
- 28:27Speaker 1: like I like Kevin el Contra. I want to see
- 28:29Speaker 1: what Kevin ol Contra can do. I don't know if
- 28:31Speaker 1: he's has a shot to do it with the Cubs. Like, so,
- 28:34Speaker 1: you've got to get creative there unless they're you know,
- 28:37Speaker 1: you got to think about what you're doing there. Why
- 28:39Speaker 1: don't like unless you have more to add to that.
- 28:42Speaker 1: Let me get to this second, the second question, how
- 28:45Speaker 1: does ownership view the payroll this year versus the performance achieved?
- 28:49Speaker 1: Does the amount spent to underperform expectations this year make
- 28:53Speaker 1: ownership less likely to spend it in future seasons even
- 28:56Speaker 1: though the fan base already seems to regard them as.
- 29:03Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is kind of the awkward part
- 29:05Speaker 3: for Jed Hoyer's front office when they have to meet
- 29:07Speaker 3: with the Ricketts family the board however they worked there.
- 29:11Speaker 3: I don't know quarterly meetings, however, it's structured of like
- 29:18Speaker 3: this ownership group looked at the Red Sox a couple
- 29:21Speaker 3: of years ago, when I want to say they kind
- 29:25Speaker 3: of did a half measure at the trade deadline. I
- 29:30Speaker 3: think they still finished in last place and they tripped
- 29:35Speaker 3: over the tax. It was just like that to them
- 29:39Speaker 3: is like the worst case scenario and I think that
- 29:46Speaker 3: on the one hand, you do have We've talked abou
- 29:48Speaker 3: this before. Jed is managing the payroll the way they
- 29:53Speaker 3: want it to be managed, right of like focusing on
- 29:56Speaker 3: the farm system, getting that steady supply of cheaper, younger talent,
- 30:02Speaker 3: being quote rational in the free agent market, not doing
- 30:08Speaker 3: those thirteen year deals, not going all the way top
- 30:11Speaker 3: of the market. Obviously, as fans you may hate that.
- 30:16Speaker 3: As media we can question that philosophy, but there there's
- 30:20Speaker 3: a lot of alignment there in terms of like how
- 30:24Speaker 3: Tom Rickets use the game, how Jed Hoyer and Carl
- 30:26Speaker 3: Hawkins do the games, and honestly, Craig counsel of a
- 30:30Speaker 3: very rational human being as well. He may have some
- 30:34Speaker 3: different thoughts, but he is not like a careless off
- 30:40Speaker 3: the cuff person by any means. And so I think
- 30:46Speaker 3: what you're looking at here is this family have run
- 30:52Speaker 3: the business sort of the same way almost continuously since
- 30:57Speaker 3: they bought the team from Tribune Company. They view it
- 31:01Speaker 3: as a quote closed loop. Now we can question a
- 31:09Speaker 3: lot of things because we don't get to see their books,
- 31:11Speaker 3: but essentially what that means is they say whatever revenues
- 31:15Speaker 3: they get, they pay the expenses, and leftover stuff goes
- 31:20Speaker 3: to base of operations. Now there's lots of different ways
- 31:23Speaker 3: for them to build their wealth and make others, et cetera.
- 31:27Speaker 1: So conveniently all that the land and all the property
- 31:30Speaker 1: they own around the ballpark doesn't count. But that's a
- 31:33Speaker 1: different understanding.
- 31:36Speaker 3: Is that it's just simply not definite spending. It's not
- 31:43Speaker 3: like reacting to public outcries or certain you know, internal pressures.
- 31:51Speaker 3: It's just like, this is their system, this is how
- 31:53Speaker 3: it's set up, so more revenue comes in whatever they
- 31:59Speaker 3: they don't necessarily spend beyond whatever their projections are. Like
- 32:04Speaker 3: clearly in San Diego, Peter Silent before he died, made
- 32:08Speaker 3: some sort of kind of speculative calculation right of like
- 32:11Speaker 3: I think he thought with the Chargers leaving town with
- 32:14Speaker 3: this great ballpark, kind of wild man executive, you know,
- 32:20Speaker 3: wheeling and dealing some some great talent on hand, and
- 32:26Speaker 3: just saw a moment to like kind of kind of
- 32:30Speaker 3: bust up the model that had been in place in
- 32:32Speaker 3: San Diego. Cubs do not.
- 32:36Speaker 1: Do that.
- 32:36Speaker 3: They have their kind of steady operation. And I think
- 32:41Speaker 3: without nineteen oh eight, there is less curgaency. Without someone
- 32:47Speaker 3: like THEO Epstein kind of agitating. I think it is
- 32:51Speaker 3: a different dynamic in Ragley Bill. But at the same time,
- 32:56Speaker 3: there are you know, I go back to after the
- 32:59Speaker 3: twenty fifth NLCS when they get swept and like that
- 33:02Speaker 3: was a moment where business and baseball operations work together
- 33:07Speaker 3: and said, all right, let's kind of do two off
- 33:08Speaker 3: seasons in one. They see this core, they see this opportunity,
- 33:15Speaker 3: and they went a lot bigger than they thought kind
- 33:20Speaker 3: of heading into the GM meetings, Like they had amazing
- 33:24Speaker 3: winter meetings and that was not what they envisioned kind
- 33:26Speaker 3: of at the GM meetings that it took some work,
- 33:29Speaker 3: some planning, some creativity, and so I would take Tom
- 33:35Speaker 3: Ricketts at his word on this. He's been pretty consistent
- 33:38Speaker 3: of that. They view the luxury tax threshold that's sort
- 33:43Speaker 3: of a general range of where they want to end
- 33:47Speaker 3: up each year. They may go over, they may stay under.
- 33:51Speaker 3: They're aware of the penalties and various calculations, and from
- 33:57Speaker 3: there they kind of want to respond to the moment.
- 34:00Speaker 3: It's with someone who kind of pushed the nic Cassiano
- 34:04Speaker 3: steel over the line, just like this team needs something,
- 34:09Speaker 3: I'm going to pay for it, get it done. That
- 34:14Speaker 3: is obviously not the prevailing narrative around Tom Ricketts at
- 34:18Speaker 3: this time. I mean, there's a letter that came out
- 34:20Speaker 3: and our colleague John Greenbrigg at The Athletic wrote that up.
- 34:23Speaker 3: But like this is like it or not, This is
- 34:28Speaker 3: sort of the Cubs plan is to have like that
- 34:33Speaker 3: stable kind of flow of resources where it's not having
- 34:37Speaker 3: to do what they did in COVID, which was kind
- 34:40Speaker 3: of just splash, but that each year, Jed Hoyer running
- 34:47Speaker 3: baseball operations has a pretty good idea of what's coming,
- 34:50Speaker 3: what the limitations are, what the advantages are, what the
- 34:56Speaker 3: landscape is, and then it's totally up to him and
- 35:00Speaker 3: his staff to use it however they see fit. I
- 35:03Speaker 3: think it's clearly not satisfying. It has not been good enough.
- 35:09Speaker 3: I think you could also see like how that could work,
- 35:12Speaker 3: right if the Cubs the prior one to one more game,
- 35:16Speaker 3: if certain things fell a different way this year, it's
- 35:21Speaker 3: like not out of the realm of possibility that we've
- 35:23Speaker 3: been talking about, like a pretty good operation, right, and
- 35:26Speaker 3: not having a lot of these not overly positive questions
- 35:32Speaker 3: in this off season mail bag that will be a
- 35:35Speaker 3: regular feature for us, right, I just.
- 35:38Speaker 1: Have a couple of quick things to add, Like I
- 35:41Speaker 1: always dislike when it's like black or white, right, and
- 35:44Speaker 1: like sort of call them cheap bothers me a little
- 35:48Speaker 1: because it's not study's cheap, right, there's nuance here. But
- 35:52Speaker 1: they're like ninth or tenth in payroll depending on how
- 35:55Speaker 1: you want to look at it, and in like the
- 35:58Speaker 1: landscape has changed, why are they not their tenth They
- 36:00Speaker 1: should always be, in my opinion, in the top five
- 36:04Speaker 1: or hovering around there. This is they're too low. Teams
- 36:07Speaker 1: have passed them up, and I think that that doesn't
- 36:10Speaker 1: make them cheap. It just I think they should be
- 36:13Speaker 1: more aggressive with their payroll. I also think there's an
- 36:17Speaker 1: argument to be made of you are far and away
- 36:20Speaker 1: the biggest payroll in the NL central, why are you not?
- 36:25Speaker 1: Why are you not doing better? And then the central right,
- 36:28Speaker 1: So this comes back to the dollar per more or
- 36:31Speaker 1: whatever I was discussing before. I don't love analyzing it
- 36:35Speaker 1: in that way. But are they getting the most bang
- 36:38Speaker 1: for their buck? Right? Obviously not. There are teams in
- 36:41Speaker 1: the playoffs that have significantly unless they're payroll in them,
- 36:45Speaker 1: including like Detroit was like nothing right of their active payroll.
- 36:49Speaker 1: It was like so like twenty something or something. We're insane, Right,
- 36:53Speaker 1: that's not their actual payroll because of guys that were hurt,
- 36:56Speaker 1: like Hoavier Bias. But like the Cubs are not efficient passion,
- 37:01Speaker 1: not like Milwaukee, not like Cleveland, not like Campa Bay.
- 37:04Speaker 1: And that's really what they're trying to get to. Right.
- 37:07Speaker 1: If you're efficient like that and you have the highest
- 37:10Speaker 1: payroll in NL Central, nobody's complaining about you not being
- 37:14Speaker 1: in the top five, right, and then Tom Ricketts looks
- 37:16Speaker 1: like a genius and gets what he wants. That is
- 37:19Speaker 1: what Tom Ricketts wants. He wants he wants to be
- 37:22Speaker 1: able to spend like like the tenth the eighth highest
- 37:27Speaker 1: payroll in the current landscape how things are. He doesn't
- 37:30Speaker 1: want to spend like San Diego. He doesn't want to
- 37:32Speaker 1: spend like that's Philly. That's that's the other team I
- 37:36Speaker 1: was thinking of, like Philly and San Diego when they
- 37:38Speaker 1: pass you up. In my opinion, that that shouldn't happen, right,
- 37:42Speaker 1: I get like I fans want them to spend like
- 37:45Speaker 1: LA and the New York teams. I understand that's not
- 37:48Speaker 1: going to happen, but it would be nice to see
- 37:50Speaker 1: them right behind them, uh, and we're not We're not
- 37:54Speaker 1: seeing that. So I get the frustration from fans, But
- 37:58Speaker 1: essentially what needs to happen if that it's not going
- 38:00Speaker 1: to happen, you just need if you can accept that
- 38:02Speaker 1: that's not happening. Now, it's up to Jed and Carter
- 38:06Speaker 1: and everyone to be more efficient with the payroll that
- 38:08Speaker 1: you do have. And that's the bottom line. Like so,
- 38:11Speaker 1: and I my assumption is not after this season, this
- 38:16Speaker 1: past season, but one more year of this. And that's
- 38:19Speaker 1: when Tom starts to say, like, come on, like other
- 38:23Speaker 1: teams are more efficient with their payroll, like you need
- 38:25Speaker 1: to be better with it, Like you need to find
- 38:27Speaker 1: the right players. I'm giving you enough money to win
- 38:30Speaker 1: because look at all these teams Arizona and Milwaukee. Because
- 38:33Speaker 1: he's not he's not going to point to what the
- 38:35Speaker 1: World Series is, you know, maybe Yankees, Dodgers or whatever.
- 38:38Speaker 1: It's either going to be like one of the teams
- 38:41Speaker 1: is going to be a top three payroll right in
- 38:43Speaker 1: the World Series. Right, So he's not going to point
- 38:48Speaker 1: to that. He's going to point to Cleveland, you like
- 38:51Speaker 1: you pointed to Arizona last year. So that's and and
- 38:56Speaker 1: it's a fair point in the sense like you have
- 38:59Speaker 1: to be efficient the money that you spend and put
- 39:02Speaker 1: to get put out a better roster, put out a
- 39:04Speaker 1: better team, and that's the better bottom line, Like they
- 39:06Speaker 1: need to be better, and we're always going to come
- 39:08Speaker 1: back to that be better, because when you don't make
- 39:10Speaker 1: the playoffs, you're not good enough and that should be
- 39:13Speaker 1: the minimum expectation. All right, Yeah, we will be back
- 39:17Speaker 1: later this week with more of your questions. I always
- 39:20Speaker 1: enjoy answering all of the questions and going through these things.
- 39:24Speaker 1: It helps us to think through things as well. Thanks
- 39:26Speaker 1: so much for listening. This is Northside Territory. Make sure
- 39:29Speaker 1: to subscribe, rate and review a subscribe on YouTube. Subscribe
- 39:33Speaker 1: to The Athletic where Patrick and I are on top
- 39:35Speaker 1: of the Cubs offseason. Thanks so much for listening and reading.
- 39:38Speaker 1: We really appreciate all of you. Take care