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People don't trust traditional currency anymore · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: Chuck Zada, and Mike Armstrong, Chuck.
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Speaker 2: Uh.
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Speaker 3: Six two thirteen eighty five is the text line for
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Speaker 3: the show. And always love those questions coming in.
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Speaker 2: But you can't talk to us between breaks if you're
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Speaker 2: not here. So just a reminder there are some perks
1:57
Speaker 2: to showing up in person if you If you want
2:00
Speaker 2: to add our next one that we'll be doing. Taking
2:03
Speaker 2: a look around markets, We've got the S and P
2:07
Speaker 2: five hundred up a third of a percent, about twenty
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Speaker 2: two points, the Dow Jones Industrial average up seventy nine points.
2:14
Speaker 2: The Nasdaq composite is up one hundred and forty seven points,
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Speaker 2: about two thirds of a percent, so all in disease
2:21
Speaker 2: in the green today, aside from that silly Russell two
2:26
Speaker 2: thousand that just doesn't know what to do. Quite honestly,
2:29
Speaker 2: it's been getting bid up on the really interesting thing
2:32
Speaker 2: about the Russell. So we have to have just a
2:34
Speaker 2: quick little digression here. Indeed, generally with small cap stocks,
2:38
Speaker 2: the ones that perform best over extended periods of time
2:41
Speaker 2: are the ones that are profitable, and the most profitable.
2:44
Speaker 2: As you know, one would expect the small caps that
2:47
Speaker 2: have been performing best over the last month have been
2:51
Speaker 2: the most unprofitable stocks in the index, which tells you
2:55
Speaker 2: that retail is just kind of fishing for all the
2:57
Speaker 2: memi hot names and everything. And so it's just kind
3:01
Speaker 2: of interesting when you see that kind of behavior. It's
3:04
Speaker 2: not normally what you expect from the rustle, and it's
3:06
Speaker 2: not something that usually ends well when everyone's buying all
3:09
Speaker 2: the crap that no one else normally wants, because once
3:12
Speaker 2: once the buyers of the crap stop, then the sellers start,
3:16
Speaker 2: and that's when you know, things get that get dodgy. Well,
3:19
Speaker 2: put the buyers of the crap. We should have T
3:22
Speaker 2: shirts made of that. We need financial exchange t shirts
3:25
Speaker 2: with that now in the back, it says the buyers
3:27
Speaker 2: of the crap, we could do that. I think that
3:29
Speaker 2: would be really really good. Taking a look at other markets.
3:33
Speaker 2: US ten year treasury kind of boring today, down seven
3:39
Speaker 2: tenths of a basis point to four point three eight percent.
3:41
Speaker 2: We've been to pretty tight range for the last five
3:43
Speaker 2: six days on this one. No further movement today, Well.
3:46
Speaker 3: Then you want some excitement, chuck, Yeah, what do you got?
3:48
Speaker 3: Gold's up another two percent today. Yeah.
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Speaker 2: We're gonna have to have a discussion about gold at
3:52
Speaker 2: some point, just because we're now reaching the point where,
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Speaker 2: you know, people who aren't in the no start you know,
3:58
Speaker 2: to tweet out things like, oh, like gold only goes up,
4:01
Speaker 2: and you know, things like that, and listen, I'm not
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Speaker 2: saying it can or can't go in any particular direction,
4:07
Speaker 2: but gosh, when you've seen gold run thirty percent in
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Speaker 2: two months, that's a pretty monster move. Gold has a
4:15
Speaker 2: history of monster moves like this. Can compress time frames,
4:19
Speaker 2: but even there you tend to see some sideways consolidation
4:22
Speaker 2: like we did this summer as an example, where remember
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Speaker 2: start of the year you saw about a thirty percent
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Speaker 2: run up in gold through mid April, and then it
4:32
Speaker 2: was completely sideways through mid August. It took a four
4:35
Speaker 2: month break. It didn't really go anywhere. It just kind
4:37
Speaker 2: of sat there and was like, yep, I'm hanging out
4:38
Speaker 2: at the beach. I'm not doing anything. And then it
4:41
Speaker 2: got moving again. So again, this is what you tend
4:44
Speaker 2: to see with gold, very long periods of boredom and
4:47
Speaker 2: short periods of either crazy excitement or pure terror.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, the gold obsession out there is starting to get
4:55
Speaker 3: intriguing to me.
4:56
Speaker 2: It's all over Reddit right now.
4:57
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's overredd at social media. I keep seeing posts
5:00
Speaker 3: of things like, oh, stocks are really expensive, but when
5:03
Speaker 3: you price them in gold, take a look at this
5:05
Speaker 3: chart instead. I'm like, no one has ever done that
5:08
Speaker 3: until the LA.
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Speaker 2: That's not true, So I disagree. Yeah, I have actually
5:12
Speaker 2: looked at S and P you know, charts priced in gold,
5:15
Speaker 2: like Yeah, I don't do it with individual stocks, it's done,
5:17
Speaker 2: but yeah, like looking at the whole market like in
5:19
Speaker 2: gold terms, it's no different from looking at like the
5:22
Speaker 2: market in yen terms or something like that. And that's
5:25
Speaker 2: also something that I do occasionally because it can tell
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Speaker 2: you some things sometimes what is.
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Speaker 3: The market being priced in gold.
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Speaker 2: Tell you, now, Jack, let me actually do it now,
5:35
Speaker 2: because I haven't done it recently. So if we want
5:38
Speaker 2: to look at it looks.
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Speaker 3: A lot less expensive when you price it in gold
5:42
Speaker 3: rather than dollars. Obviously it does so.
5:45
Speaker 2: Again, like if you look at this and kind of
5:48
Speaker 2: look at you know, the longer term trends are really
5:51
Speaker 2: what matters. And here here's what's interesting. It basically tells
5:55
Speaker 2: you a story about inflation in my opinion, in that
6:00
Speaker 2: when you have the S and P rising against gold
6:05
Speaker 2: tends to be in pretty deflationary environments. I mean, look
6:07
Speaker 2: at the twenty tens just as an example, and by
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Speaker 2: and large the S ANDP was chugging along and gold
6:14
Speaker 2: couldn't get off the mat for most of that decade.
6:16
Speaker 2: It just it went absolutely nowhere. Now you can have
6:20
Speaker 2: two different reasons why it moves in the opposite direction.
6:23
Speaker 2: The first is stocks collapse, which is what we saw
6:25
Speaker 2: in March of twenty stocks collapse, but gold didn't. And
6:29
Speaker 2: so that was the reversal there. It didn't mean that
6:31
Speaker 2: you suddenly had inflation breakout in March of twenty twenty.
6:34
Speaker 2: That happened later. In fact, and if you look at
6:36
Speaker 2: this over the course of twenty two, the ratio between
6:39
Speaker 2: gold and the S and P moved in gold's favor
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Speaker 2: simply because the S and P fell about twenty five
6:44
Speaker 2: percent over the course of the first ten months of
6:46
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two and gold didn't because it was that
6:50
Speaker 2: you know, inflationary hedge. There. Well, if you take a
6:52
Speaker 2: look at you know, what we're seeing over the last
6:55
Speaker 2: month or so, now you've got a case where and
6:58
Speaker 2: here this is one point where I think it's important
7:00
Speaker 2: to make a clear distinction. This is not just happening
7:04
Speaker 2: in US markets right now. This is not just a
7:07
Speaker 2: dollar phenomenon. The price of gold is appreciating versus every
7:13
Speaker 2: other major currency in the world right now. So this
7:15
Speaker 2: is not something that is betting against the US dollar.
7:17
Speaker 2: I hear it phrase that you know really often in
7:19
Speaker 2: the last like month or two. Oh well, this is
7:21
Speaker 2: because no one trusts the dollar anymore.
7:23
Speaker 3: Because nobody trusts any currency.
7:25
Speaker 2: No. Like you look across the board and you've got
7:28
Speaker 2: China saying, hey, we might you know, print the equivalent
7:31
Speaker 2: of a trillion dollars in Yuwan in order to shore
7:34
Speaker 2: up the financial system because there's too much debt in
7:36
Speaker 2: other places. And things are going, you know, not great.
7:39
Speaker 2: You've got Europe saying, hey, here's five hundred billion dollars
7:42
Speaker 2: in additional defense spending in the next five to six years.
7:45
Speaker 2: How are we going to deal with it? And we'll
7:47
Speaker 2: print it. You've got Japan putting in place new leadership
7:51
Speaker 2: of the country that if you remember shinzo Abe and
7:54
Speaker 2: Abbe Nomis, which was basically print the currency in order
7:57
Speaker 2: to try to get the economy going. New people in
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Speaker 2: charge are basically yeah, let's do more of that and
8:03
Speaker 2: more extreme. In the United States, we passed a bill
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Speaker 2: earlier this year that basically said, yeah, we're not really
8:10
Speaker 2: gonna deal with the deficit. We have some fiscal measures
8:12
Speaker 2: that we like to put in place, no tax on tips,
8:15
Speaker 2: you know, additional deductions for people who are retired, additional
8:19
Speaker 2: business deductions, this, that, and whatever, and yeah, we're probably
8:22
Speaker 2: gonna have six to eight percent annual deficits for the
8:25
Speaker 2: foreseeable future. So gold is is really I think starting
8:28
Speaker 2: to sniff this out and saying, hey, none of y'all
8:31
Speaker 2: are credible when it comes to you know, fiat currency
8:35
Speaker 2: or anything like that. Gold is Southern too, believe it
8:37
Speaker 2: or not. It's it's not just I I use y'all
8:43
Speaker 2: on a pretty regular face.
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Speaker 3: It it's like.
8:46
Speaker 2: A lot for one show.
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Speaker 4: I don't know where this is coming from.
8:53
Speaker 2: We're broadcasting live at the Showcase Super We're a little
8:57
Speaker 2: south of our regular location.
8:59
Speaker 3: Direct directly northeast.
9:02
Speaker 2: That depends on which way you're holding the globe in
9:05
Speaker 2: any case, Let's take a quick break right now, and
9:08
Speaker 2: when we come back, we're gonna be joined by Sarah
9:10
Speaker 2: Foster from Bank Rates. She's gonna be talking about their
9:12
Speaker 2: workers survey on pay not keeping up with inflation. We'll
9:16
Speaker 2: talk to her when we return.
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10:35
Speaker 3: Joining US now is Bank rate Sarah Foster on their
10:39
Speaker 3: worker survey and specifically pay compared to inflation. Sarah, thanks
10:43
Speaker 3: so much for joining us. Appreciate it.
10:45
Speaker 5: Thanks for having me. Always great to be here.
10:47
Speaker 3: So I want to start off with the actual data
10:51
Speaker 3: that we have on inflation and wages, and granted where
10:53
Speaker 3: you haven't been getting it the last couple of weeks,
10:55
Speaker 3: but most data that's out there from the DOL or
10:59
Speaker 3: the blast seems to indicate that compared to this time
11:02
Speaker 3: last year, average wages are actually up more than inflation.
11:07
Speaker 3: Is that the case? I know, it's not what you
11:10
Speaker 3: found in your survey. But is that seemingly the case
11:12
Speaker 3: that wages when measured by government statistics, are actually higher
11:16
Speaker 3: than inflation.
11:18
Speaker 5: That's right, So the data that we have so far
11:20
Speaker 5: through the shutdown shows that really, actually, since about the
11:23
Speaker 5: middle of twenty twenty three, wages have been rising faster
11:27
Speaker 5: than inflation. But when you look at kind of we
11:31
Speaker 5: have a separate research report that kind of attracts purchasing power,
11:35
Speaker 5: which is a different way of maybe looking at this question,
11:38
Speaker 5: that's when you find that since the beginning of twenty
11:40
Speaker 5: twenty one, prices have risen much faster than paychecks. So
11:44
Speaker 5: there's a gap there, meaning Americans can't buy the same
11:47
Speaker 5: amount of stuff that they used to be able to
11:49
Speaker 5: buy at the beginning of twenty twenty one. So even
11:52
Speaker 5: though wages are rising faster than inflation, right.
11:54
Speaker 3: Now, Sarah is still there. We may have just lost Sarah.
12:03
Speaker 3: We'll work on getting Sarah back. But let's chuck, let's
12:07
Speaker 3: move on for just a moment here, because we have
12:09
Speaker 3: a related story of Americans and their their jobs in
12:14
Speaker 3: this workforce.
12:15
Speaker 2: You know why Jeff Bezo saying that millions of people
12:17
Speaker 2: are going to be living in space by twenty forty five.
12:20
Speaker 3: I mean, if that's where you need to go at
12:22
Speaker 3: this early in the show, then we can go there.
12:24
Speaker 3: Let's talk about let's talk about the American workforce instead.
12:29
Speaker 3: What does Barons mean when they say that Americans don't
12:33
Speaker 3: have good jobs? Because these types of stories, I don't
12:39
Speaker 3: I don't debate that a lot of Americans have jobs
12:41
Speaker 3: that they might not like very much, But I don't
12:43
Speaker 3: like trying to categorize good versus bad jobs.
12:46
Speaker 2: Well, this tries to okay, And this is a study
12:50
Speaker 2: that was done by Gallup, and I'll just quote from
12:55
Speaker 2: Barons here. A quality job is defined in the joint
12:59
Speaker 2: study as one that has fair pay, sustainable schedules and workloads,
13:04
Speaker 2: and provides a safe and respectful workplace, allowing opportunities for
13:08
Speaker 2: advancement and a voice in decisions. So, yeah, I gotta
13:16
Speaker 2: be completely honest. I think the numbers might be wrong
13:20
Speaker 2: on this actually, and the pictures bleaker than it even
13:24
Speaker 2: is painted here, Like this is sixty percent of Americans
13:27
Speaker 2: lack quality jobs. If you're looking for all of that
13:30
Speaker 2: in a job, I bet it's probably close to eighty
13:33
Speaker 2: or ninety percent of Americans lack quality jobs.
13:36
Speaker 3: Then do you really need to have your voice heard
13:40
Speaker 3: in decisions, so to have a quality job.
13:43
Speaker 2: No, but okay, so this I agree, Like, let me
13:48
Speaker 2: like this is a separate tangent, but one that's related.
13:51
Speaker 2: I think that one of the main reasons that people
13:54
Speaker 2: become disillusioned is in anything is not because their voice
13:58
Speaker 2: needs to be heard in making the decision. But their
14:01
Speaker 2: voice does need to be heard. Sure, Like if you
14:05
Speaker 2: look at just in terms of you know, any kind
14:10
Speaker 2: of discontent that shows up, whether it's in a job,
14:13
Speaker 2: whether it is in a family, whether it's in a community,
14:17
Speaker 2: whether it's in a political party.
14:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, they feel ignored.
14:19
Speaker 2: It's generally just like, hey, you're ignoring me. Someone doesn't
14:22
Speaker 2: always have to choose what you want to do. But yes,
14:26
Speaker 2: I do think that at least, like even if you
14:28
Speaker 2: just have like a suggestion box or something and you
14:31
Speaker 2: actually read the suggestions or something like that, something where
14:35
Speaker 2: you can have a voice in your company. Yeah, Like,
14:39
Speaker 2: little stuff like that matters. People just want to be heard.
14:41
Speaker 3: Mike, Yeah, yeah, I understand that. And to that point,
14:47
Speaker 3: if those are the criteria you're looking for, I would
14:49
Speaker 3: estimate that closer to ninety percent of the workforce is
14:52
Speaker 3: not in that quote quality job. But Yeah, I keep
14:57
Speaker 3: going back on this, which is we are pretty certain,
15:02
Speaker 3: like I am fairly certain that let me let.
15:04
Speaker 2: Me, let me tell you what a quality job actually is.
15:06
Speaker 3: Okay, a job.
15:07
Speaker 2: That pays enough for you to do what you want
15:09
Speaker 2: to do. There's nothing else. Okay, it's about the money.
15:17
Speaker 2: Everything else is kind of secondary. We can talk more
15:21
Speaker 2: about that. I think we got Sarah back on the line.
15:23
Speaker 3: Sarah, sorry about that. Thanks for thanks for sticking with
15:25
Speaker 3: us here and back to the survey. Tell us exactly
15:29
Speaker 3: about what you found, because the most workers in four
15:32
Speaker 3: years of doing this survey are telling you that their
15:34
Speaker 3: pay is and keeping up with inflation. So what specifically
15:37
Speaker 3: are they citing and did you find it varying between
15:39
Speaker 3: age demographics.
15:41
Speaker 6: Yeah, so great to be back here. Thanks for having
15:44
Speaker 6: me back. I'd say that, you know, the purchasing power
15:47
Speaker 6: that Americans feel like they have is you know, is
15:49
Speaker 6: worse since it was before the pandemic. So Americans are
15:53
Speaker 6: really feeling like they can't buy the same amount of
15:55
Speaker 6: stuff with the wages that they have. And you know,
15:58
Speaker 6: I think the kind that the bad thing that's happening
16:01
Speaker 6: right now is as inflation is accelerating again, the labor
16:04
Speaker 6: market is also slowing, and it's a lot it's a
16:07
Speaker 6: phrase that a lot of economists referred to as sagflation,
16:11
Speaker 6: So they're finding it a lot harder to have the
16:13
Speaker 6: negotiating power to really ask for raises or to find
16:16
Speaker 6: better paying jobs.
16:19
Speaker 3: When you take a look at all of this data
16:21
Speaker 3: as well, I think of the other things that are
16:23
Speaker 3: impacting people's wallets. We've got student loans that just restarted
16:26
Speaker 3: over the course of the last couple of years, and
16:29
Speaker 3: inflation in the aggregate if you look back five years now,
16:32
Speaker 3: I would guess that piece certainly has outpaced wage growth.
16:36
Speaker 3: So what are people trying to do to keep pace
16:39
Speaker 3: in today's economy if they are just in the workforce
16:43
Speaker 3: and don't have other ways to supplement their income. Yeah, well,
16:46
Speaker 3: we know.
16:46
Speaker 6: That a lot of workers do have an interest in
16:48
Speaker 6: searching for a new job. You know, we've run a
16:51
Speaker 6: separate survey that really finds that even though the labor
16:54
Speaker 6: market has flowed, maybe people are still looking at what's
16:56
Speaker 6: out there. Some are still interested in asking for high pay,
17:00
Speaker 6: asking for more flexibility. So I think, you know, the
17:04
Speaker 6: interest is there, it's just whether the appetite is on
17:07
Speaker 6: behalf of the employers. And what we found is that
17:10
Speaker 6: over the past couple of years, workers are really not
17:13
Speaker 6: in the driver's seat anymore. It's really companies here, you know,
17:16
Speaker 6: they have the leverage because there's just more job seekers
17:19
Speaker 6: now than job opening hiring plans that flowed so much,
17:22
Speaker 6: and so it's probably why you've seen just a rising
17:25
Speaker 6: share of workers too. In our survey, forty three percent
17:28
Speaker 6: say they didn't receive a pay increase at all.
17:32
Speaker 3: What portion of people you talk to are legitimately concerned
17:34
Speaker 3: about losing their job? In twenty twenty five, we found.
17:38
Speaker 6: That there is a rising amount of people who aren't
17:41
Speaker 6: confident that they'll find a better paying job or get
17:43
Speaker 6: a raise over the next twelve months. And some of
17:46
Speaker 6: the people who you know across generations who are feeling,
17:51
Speaker 6: you know, worried about that lack of bargaining power, it's
17:54
Speaker 6: it's really gen zers, it's baby boomers, it's millennials, and
17:58
Speaker 6: I think it's it's difficult because you know gen zers
18:02
Speaker 6: in particular, they're the ones kind of feeling this slowdown
18:06
Speaker 6: in the job market even more. You know, this is
18:09
Speaker 6: the time in their careers when they'd be job hopping,
18:12
Speaker 6: when they'd be asking for higher pay, knowing that the
18:14
Speaker 6: salary that they make early in their lives really fetched
18:17
Speaker 6: the stage for what they make throughout the rest of
18:20
Speaker 6: their careers. We saw a huge drop in the amount
18:23
Speaker 6: of people who felt confident that they'll get a pay
18:26
Speaker 6: increase in gen Z and that's also probably because just
18:30
Speaker 6: seventeen percent of them found a better paying job over
18:32
Speaker 6: the past twelve months. You know, the year before that,
18:36
Speaker 6: about a third of them did so, a pretty big decline.
18:39
Speaker 3: Sarah Foster from Bank Great Joints. They talk about their
18:42
Speaker 3: worker survey specifically on pay not keeping pace with prices. Sarah,
18:47
Speaker 3: thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate it and we'll
18:48
Speaker 3: talk to you again soon.
18:50
Speaker 6: Thanks for having me.
18:53
Speaker 2: Taking a look at markets. As we head towards the
18:56
Speaker 2: bottom of the hour, the S and P five hundred
18:58
Speaker 2: is up eleven points, a little less than two tenths
19:00
Speaker 2: of a percent, Dow Jones up seventy one points, about
19:03
Speaker 2: zero point one five percent, and then as that can
19:05
Speaker 2: posit now about seventy eight points, or a third of
19:08
Speaker 2: a percent. As marks are trying to hold onto their games.
19:10
Speaker 2: As I was speaking, the SMP just fell another five
19:12
Speaker 2: points and is now up six points, so you're getting
19:15
Speaker 2: a little bit of choppiness still in markets. And by
19:18
Speaker 2: the way, something that you're still seeing the VIX, the
19:21
Speaker 2: volatility index continuing to rise on days when the market
19:25
Speaker 2: is rising. Someone is trying to sniff something out in
19:29
Speaker 2: this market right now, and it feels a little sniffy.
19:35
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we
19:37
Speaker 2: got trivia. We got Wall Street Watch right after this.
19:40
Speaker 7: Financial news straight to your radio. Every day. It's the
19:44
Speaker 7: Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Time now
19:50
Speaker 7: for Wall Street Watch.
19:52
Speaker 1: A complete look at what's moving markets so far today
19:55
Speaker 1: right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:58
Speaker 4: Markets are rolling back slightly from their earlier gains, but
20:02
Speaker 4: remain in positive territory as traders sift through a new
20:07
Speaker 4: batch of third quarter earnings. Right now, the Dow is
20:12
Speaker 4: up modestly, only thirty three points higher, SMP five hundred
20:16
Speaker 4: is up a tenth of a percent or ten points higher,
20:18
Speaker 4: Nasdaq up four tenths of one percent, or about one
20:22
Speaker 4: hundred and seven points, Russell two thousands down a third
20:24
Speaker 4: of a percent. Ten year Treasure You yield down two
20:27
Speaker 4: basis points at four point zero two four percent, and
20:31
Speaker 4: crude oil up about a third of a percent, rating
20:34
Speaker 4: at fifty eight dollars and forty seven cents a barrel.
20:38
Speaker 4: Shares in Taiwan Semiconductor now down one percent after the
20:41
Speaker 4: chip maker reported another record profit in the previous quarter,
20:45
Speaker 4: jumping thirty nine percent, well above street expectations. Meanwhile, shares
20:50
Speaker 4: in Salesforce jumping about four percent after the CRM vendors
20:53
Speaker 4: said it expects revenue above sixty billion dollars in twenty thirty. Elsewhere,
20:58
Speaker 4: JB Hunt Transports Server posted solid third quarter results, beating
21:02
Speaker 4: on earning zan revenue. Shares in the trucking and logistics
21:05
Speaker 4: company or surging nineteen percent on those results. Micron Technology
21:10
Speaker 4: up about seven percent after UBS increase its price target
21:14
Speaker 4: of the chip maker stock, noting Micron will get a
21:17
Speaker 4: boost from a memory chip shortage. T Mobile upgraded by
21:20
Speaker 4: Wills Fargo two overweight from equal weight, citing an attractive
21:24
Speaker 4: valuation relative to rival at and T and tomorrow morning,
21:28
Speaker 4: ahead of the opening bill, we'll see more financial earnings
21:30
Speaker 4: from Amex. I'm Tucker Silva, and that is Wall Street Watch,
21:34
Speaker 4: and we'll do trivia quick here Today is actor Tim
21:37
Speaker 4: Robbins sixty seventh birthday. Robins most famous for starring in
21:41
Speaker 4: The Shawshank Redemption back in nineteen ninety four. Robbins didn't
21:45
Speaker 4: win an award for his performance in that movie, but
21:48
Speaker 4: he did win Best Supporting Actor ten years later. So
21:52
Speaker 4: our trivia question today, which movie did Tim Robbins win
21:55
Speaker 4: Best Supporting Actor for?
21:57
Speaker 2: Once again?
21:58
Speaker 4: Which movie did Tim Robbins win Best Awarding Actor four?
22:01
Speaker 4: Uh be the fifth person today to text us at
22:04
Speaker 4: six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five with
22:06
Speaker 4: correct answer and win a Financial Exchange Show T shirt
22:09
Speaker 4: once again. The fifth correct response to text us to
22:12
Speaker 4: the number six one seven three six two thirteen eighty
22:15
Speaker 4: five will win that T shirt. See complete contest rules
22:18
Speaker 4: at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
22:20
Speaker 2: Mike, I want to go back to the quality jobs
22:23
Speaker 2: piece just quickly. I made the point. Look, the only
22:26
Speaker 2: thing that like, if we're talking like quality job, like,
22:29
Speaker 2: the money is what makes it sure. And here's where
22:32
Speaker 2: I get to this. Is there any job in the
22:35
Speaker 2: world that has any kind of real promise of job
22:38
Speaker 2: security at this point?
22:46
Speaker 3: I mean five years ago, I would have told you,
22:47
Speaker 3: like a good old government job, like.
22:52
Speaker 2: I can't conclusively say there's job security in any one
22:55
Speaker 2: particular spot, sustainable schedules and workloads. Mike, if some one
23:00
Speaker 2: paid you eighty dollars an hour to work at Amazon,
23:04
Speaker 2: you could probably deal with it. You'd be like, Yep,
23:06
Speaker 2: sign me up. I'm good with it. The work fine,
23:10
Speaker 2: Like whatever you want to do, safe and respectful workplace, Yes,
23:13
Speaker 2: I'll put that on there, Like you don't want to
23:15
Speaker 2: be being like squashed by you know, forklifts.
23:17
Speaker 3: And things like or yelled that out. Yeah, okay, you
23:20
Speaker 3: like I could understand that again, like pay in the
23:23
Speaker 3: right pay people climb you know, cell phone towers and
23:28
Speaker 3: do all sorts of dangerous jobs for the right pay.
23:30
Speaker 3: People go on to oil rigs in the middle of
23:32
Speaker 3: the ocean. So yeah, it's about pay.
23:35
Speaker 2: Pay in safety like if you have again, like even
23:39
Speaker 2: like there's a lot of safety regulations that are in
23:42
Speaker 2: those industries now. I mean there's a reason why, like
23:45
Speaker 2: you know, we we do some things certain ways. So
23:47
Speaker 2: that that's kind of where I wanted to get back to.
23:50
Speaker 2: But but that was kind of my last point on that.
23:53
Speaker 2: AI data centers desperate for electricity are building their own
23:56
Speaker 2: power plants. How many guinea pigs do they have fueling
24:00
Speaker 2: these things, Michael.
24:02
Speaker 3: So here is where I went with this. There's been
24:06
Speaker 3: a lot of talk about how utility companies are going
24:08
Speaker 3: to benefit so much from the AI data center build out.
24:12
Speaker 3: If these AI companies are coming to the conclusion that
24:16
Speaker 3: utilities are going to be too slow or too costly
24:19
Speaker 3: to produce the energy that they need and instead they're
24:22
Speaker 3: just going to build the generation themselves, does that trade
24:25
Speaker 3: still work? I mean, seemingly the answer is yes, because
24:29
Speaker 3: there's gonna be so much power demand that you know,
24:31
Speaker 3: there's plenty of profit to go around. But that's what
24:34
Speaker 3: came to mind for me. Anyways, You've had all these
24:36
Speaker 3: traditional utilities trading through the roof on you know, presumed
24:41
Speaker 3: electricity demand, and at the same time you now have
24:45
Speaker 3: Tesla and Oracle and a bunch of other companies saying, yeah,
24:49
Speaker 3: we'll just build our own gas you know, gas powered
24:52
Speaker 3: electricity plant that will not distribute to your community. It's
24:56
Speaker 3: just going to be here to power this AI data center.
24:59
Speaker 2: So couple things. The first is yes, like, look, listen,
25:03
Speaker 2: if you don't have to deal with all the interconnection
25:05
Speaker 2: stuff and this and that, you can build power plants
25:09
Speaker 2: more quickly. In theory, I say in theory, because there
25:12
Speaker 2: still is one limiting factor when it comes to building
25:16
Speaker 2: power supply, and that is the companies that actually make
25:20
Speaker 2: the equipment that goes into power plants. They're not built
25:24
Speaker 2: for a rapid you know, acceleration, just because like, here's
25:28
Speaker 2: the thing about building power plants. If if you're like
25:30
Speaker 2: Eating Corporation, just as an example, and they're one of
25:32
Speaker 2: the companies that makes like big turbines for gas plants
25:35
Speaker 2: and stuff like that. If you're Eating Corporation, Mike, how
25:38
Speaker 2: often do you get like an unscheduled customer that just
25:42
Speaker 2: walks into your business and is like, gee, I like
25:44
Speaker 2: a undred million dollars, I like one of those turbines today.
25:47
Speaker 2: Please think you no, Like this isn't like buying French fries.
25:50
Speaker 2: This is you know, this is you're buying it a
25:51
Speaker 2: natural gas turbine. And so they typically know years in advance. Okay,
25:57
Speaker 2: we made eight last year, we made four. Team the
26:00
Speaker 2: year before, we made twelve the year before. Yeah, we
26:03
Speaker 2: can budget for eleven, and we can have an overflow
26:07
Speaker 2: capacity of one or two. Eating corporations not suddenly going
26:11
Speaker 2: to be like, hey, let's double our head count because
26:14
Speaker 2: we can sell twice as many next year because they know,
26:19
Speaker 2: guess what, you're probably not going to be on a
26:20
Speaker 2: permanent schedule of needing you twice as many of these yep.
26:24
Speaker 2: And so the interesting thing I forget where it was.
26:27
Speaker 2: It was a month or two ago, but it was
26:29
Speaker 2: someone at one of the big AI companies. It was
26:31
Speaker 2: either Open Ai or Google or Meta whoever, and they
26:34
Speaker 2: were talking about, Look, the problem that we have is
26:37
Speaker 2: chips on one level, but the real bottleneck is you
26:43
Speaker 2: can't get the power equipment next year because it's already
26:45
Speaker 2: booked out to twenty twenty eight from the companies that
26:48
Speaker 2: make this stuff.
26:49
Speaker 3: It all leads me to one conclusion, Chuck, which is
26:51
Speaker 3: all of us are going to be paying a lot
26:53
Speaker 3: more for electricity over the course of the next decade.
26:56
Speaker 3: Whether you are an AI data center or whether you
26:58
Speaker 3: are you know, per in your home, the electricity costs
27:02
Speaker 3: themselves will be going up dramatically. We may get to
27:05
Speaker 3: a place a decade from now where the market has
27:08
Speaker 3: now over supplied power generation and we're in a much
27:10
Speaker 3: better spot and those costs start to moderate. But I
27:13
Speaker 3: hesitate to see a scenario where electricity costs for everyday
27:17
Speaker 3: consumers are not heading north and north pretty quickly over
27:20
Speaker 3: the course of the next decade.
27:21
Speaker 2: Do you want an off the wall prediction? As a
27:25
Speaker 2: result of this, always the US is going to see
27:30
Speaker 2: a huge resurgence in expansion for solar and wind power
27:35
Speaker 2: over the next couple of years because conventional sources will
27:38
Speaker 2: not be able to ramp up quickly enough. And despite
27:43
Speaker 2: the lack of the lack of subsidies and the Trump
27:46
Speaker 2: administration not wanting to invest in these areas, I think
27:49
Speaker 2: they're almost going to end up being forced to because
27:52
Speaker 2: the market is going to dictate that you need to
27:54
Speaker 2: get any power deployed that you.
27:55
Speaker 3: Can, and you can do that faster than nuke.
27:58
Speaker 2: It's kind of like how you remember during Biden administration.
28:01
Speaker 2: At first people were like, oh, this is gonna be
28:04
Speaker 2: terrible for energy companies, and then it turned out to
28:06
Speaker 2: be great for energy companies because the Biden administration was
28:10
Speaker 2: so tight on new production that prices went through the rum.
28:13
Speaker 2: It's almost like, don't you feel that setting up for
28:16
Speaker 2: renewables could be that It's kind of like, Hey, nobody
28:21
Speaker 2: wants to subsidize you, which is why everyone's gonna end
28:23
Speaker 2: up paying more for you, folks.
28:26
Speaker 3: Brand new guide from the Armstrong Advisory Group for the
28:28
Speaker 3: month of October. Required minimum Distributions, how to understand them.
28:32
Speaker 3: I was in an interesting meeting just a couple of
28:35
Speaker 3: weeks ago with my ninety year old client and her
28:37
Speaker 3: sixty five year old daughter, and we were talking about
28:40
Speaker 3: the subject of required minimum distributions, and the nine year
28:44
Speaker 3: old mother had her own set of rm ds. The
28:46
Speaker 3: daughter had lost her husband two years prior, and so
28:51
Speaker 3: we were talking about the rules regarding his old IRA.
28:54
Speaker 3: We then talked about what would happen if mom passed
28:57
Speaker 3: away and left the IRA to the daughter, and the
29:00
Speaker 3: different set of rules that apply under that scenario. And
29:02
Speaker 3: then I threw out a fourth one of my own
29:04
Speaker 3: mother in law who lost her longtime unmarried partner who
29:07
Speaker 3: passed away left her the IRA and a complete different
29:10
Speaker 3: set of rules for her and that IRA. The rules
29:14
Speaker 3: around required minimum distributions are immensely complex. I constantly joke
29:19
Speaker 3: that Congress is making sure that the folks at are
29:22
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29:25
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29:30
Speaker 3: let's call it a decade of retirement, now is the
29:33
Speaker 3: time to start thinking about how these rules are going
29:36
Speaker 3: to affect you and how to best prepare for them.
29:40
Speaker 3: There's a lot of things that look like a gift,
29:42
Speaker 3: like the IRS pushing back that RMD age from seventy
29:45
Speaker 3: and a half to now seventy five. Whenever the IRS
29:49
Speaker 3: gives you a gift, there's usually some caveat to it,
29:52
Speaker 3: and we're here to help explain what that actually means
29:55
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29:59
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30:02
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30:04
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30:20
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
30:23
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
30:25
Speaker 1: Armstrong Guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
30:28
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30:37
Speaker 3: What story do you want to do next? I kind
30:38
Speaker 3: of destroyed my stack hidden costs of downsizing, Chuck. We
30:42
Speaker 3: talk about this one all the time with clients of Hey,
30:45
Speaker 3: you know, I raised my family in this four bedroom
30:47
Speaker 3: home and now it's just me or just you know,
30:51
Speaker 3: me and my wife and would love to find something smaller,
30:54
Speaker 3: but smaller homes don't really exist. This piece explores from
30:58
Speaker 3: the New York Times some of the those costs of
31:00
Speaker 3: actually downsizing and making this transaction, because I think, as
31:04
Speaker 3: many people probably out there listening have come to find out,
31:09
Speaker 3: downsizing is not that convenient or easy, and finding a
31:14
Speaker 3: new home that is smaller in many cases does not
31:16
Speaker 3: save much money.
31:17
Speaker 2: No, And the other thing that I will advise people
31:21
Speaker 2: to be very careful of in this situation is if
31:25
Speaker 2: you're downsizing happens to be moving into a condo community,
31:29
Speaker 2: whether it's single family homes, town homes, apartments, whatever it
31:33
Speaker 2: might be, you really got to do some due diligence
31:36
Speaker 2: on the financials of it these days, because, especially if
31:40
Speaker 2: you happen to be living in Florida, Texas, California, areas
31:45
Speaker 2: that are getting hit by you know, more and more
31:47
Speaker 2: natural disasters. Some of the assessments that I am seeing
31:51
Speaker 2: on a per unit basis for these condo associations are
31:55
Speaker 2: significant to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars. Yeah,
31:58
Speaker 2: and you really have to do the due diligence on Hey,
32:02
Speaker 2: how well funded is the association, what contingencies is it
32:05
Speaker 2: prepared for? You know how the master insurance policies for
32:10
Speaker 2: the association, How are those covered? How have they evolved
32:13
Speaker 2: in the last few years. There's a lot of work
32:16
Speaker 2: you need to do because I've seen people go in
32:18
Speaker 2: being like, oh, yeah, this is fine. Then the condo
32:21
Speaker 2: fees two hundred a month and blah blah blah, and
32:23
Speaker 2: then first year they're like, by the way, here's a
32:25
Speaker 2: forty thousand dollars assessment that we're hitting every unit for
32:28
Speaker 2: because of X, Y and Z.
32:30
Speaker 3: I will also say, though, that people dramatically underestimate how
32:33
Speaker 3: much it's going to cost to upkeep their larger home
32:36
Speaker 3: that they don't need as they age. Nobody ever factors
32:40
Speaker 3: in the cost that they're gonna have to hire somebody
32:42
Speaker 3: to snowblow the driveway or to mow the lawn, or
32:45
Speaker 3: to you know, do those projects that one used to
32:47
Speaker 3: be able to do in their fifties and now are
32:49
Speaker 3: in their late seventies and are not comfortable.
32:52
Speaker 2: Doing my general rule of thumb during kind of your
32:55
Speaker 2: working years, assume that upkeep and maintenance and everything will
32:58
Speaker 2: cost one percent of the homes value each year. Once
33:01
Speaker 2: you can't do it all, it's gonna be double that
33:04
Speaker 2: quick break, We got stack Roulette.
33:06
Speaker 3: Next.
33:08
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33:49
Speaker 3: All right.
33:49
Speaker 4: The prior segment, we asked you the triviute question, which
33:52
Speaker 4: movie did Tim Robbins win Best Supporting Actor?
33:55
Speaker 3: Four?
33:56
Speaker 4: I'll be Mystic River. That's right, Adam from Orleans, mass
34:00
Speaker 4: This is our winner today taking on my Financial Shane
34:02
Speaker 4: Show t shirt. Congrats to Adam and we played trivia
34:05
Speaker 4: every day here on the Financial Look Shane. See complete
34:08
Speaker 4: contest rules at Financial Look shaneeshow dot com.
34:11
Speaker 2: All right, I gotta cover Jeff Bezos saying that millions
34:14
Speaker 2: of people are gonna be living in space twenty years
34:16
Speaker 2: from now. So here here's the thing. So I admire
34:20
Speaker 2: Jeff Bezos. How now, Michael, let me just let me
34:23
Speaker 2: let me do.
34:24
Speaker 3: I got a lot of questions for you, Chuck, go ahead, I'd.
34:30
Speaker 2: Like to talk about this. So here's the thing. Any
34:33
Speaker 2: anyone who's a visionary by their nature is going to
34:36
Speaker 2: say things that sound absolutely crazy and insane. So I
34:41
Speaker 2: think it's important to note that, Like if twenty years
34:44
Speaker 2: ago you had told people, hey, in the palm of
34:48
Speaker 2: your hand, you're going to have you know, the entire
34:52
Speaker 2: you know, computing power of the entire world in nineteen
34:56
Speaker 2: sixty seven, we had been like, no, like, that's that's crazy.
34:59
Speaker 2: But we sit here today and I can make memes
35:02
Speaker 2: on my phone using AI as much as I want to,
35:05
Speaker 2: like it's it's great. This, on the other hand, is
35:09
Speaker 2: what I do think is that the not real kind
35:12
Speaker 2: of visionary stuff. And if I'm wrong, then shoot me
35:17
Speaker 2: into space is one of those millions of people because
35:19
Speaker 2: I love to go. But Michael, do you know how
35:21
Speaker 2: many people in the world have ever been to space?
35:24
Speaker 2: I don't know six hundred plus the numbers are between
35:28
Speaker 2: six fifty and six seventy depending on how you define space.
35:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, trying to hit the millions twenty, but it's it's.
35:33
Speaker 2: Over six hundred and six hundred and below seven hundred.
35:37
Speaker 2: So the idea that we're gonna have millions of people
35:39
Speaker 2: in space within you know, twenty years, millions of people
35:44
Speaker 2: living which means that you have to like start getting
35:47
Speaker 2: them up there soon because you're not gonna suddenly just
35:50
Speaker 2: be like, hey, we're gonna get a million people up
35:52
Speaker 2: in twenty forty five. You gotta be starting with like
35:55
Speaker 2: ten this year and twenty next year and four. You know,
35:58
Speaker 2: like you gotta have some kind of growth rate to
35:59
Speaker 2: get there. It's not just it's not just gonna happen.
36:02
Speaker 2: So I'm going to take the under on millions of
36:07
Speaker 2: people living in space in twenty forty five. Tucker, can
36:11
Speaker 2: you put that on the board that I would under
36:13
Speaker 2: I'll put right up there twenty four five.
36:15
Speaker 3: We'll keep that track of that shock.
36:16
Speaker 2: So I got the under and we'll check in in
36:20
Speaker 2: twenty years.
36:21
Speaker 3: Sam Altman being once again forced into the public on
36:25
Speaker 3: issues with open AI and and what he's calling the
36:28
Speaker 3: moral police.
36:29
Speaker 2: Oh because he decided to open a porn shop.
36:32
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah, effectively, Yeah, And he's basically come out
36:36
Speaker 3: and said, with very few exceptions, we're not going to
36:39
Speaker 3: be the moral police to decide what chat GPT can
36:43
Speaker 3: or cannot be used for. In this case, it was
36:45
Speaker 3: discussing discussing erotica, and he basically said that they're going
36:49
Speaker 3: to chop out Yeah.
36:51
Speaker 2: Like imagine like Walmart being like, well, you know, we're
36:54
Speaker 2: not gonna police what's in our stores, like anyone who
36:57
Speaker 2: wants to can sell whatever they want. Like, no, that
37:00
Speaker 2: you make decisions as to this is the kind of
37:02
Speaker 2: business we are, and this is who we want to serve,
37:05
Speaker 2: and then you serve those people.
37:07
Speaker 3: Well, no, they are making a decision. They're saying they're
37:09
Speaker 3: perfectly comfortable with it.
37:10
Speaker 2: Which the interesting thing that I pointed out yesterday, not
37:13
Speaker 2: even three months ago, Altman came out and said, hey,
37:16
Speaker 2: we're not going to try to juice our revenue and
37:18
Speaker 2: profits by putting AI sex spots on our website. And
37:22
Speaker 2: that's exactly what they're doing now, which makes me personally
37:24
Speaker 2: be like, oh, gee, you're super smart. AI doesn't seem
37:27
Speaker 2: to be so super smart if you just have to
37:29
Speaker 2: have it talk dirty to you, doesn't.
37:32
Speaker 3: The only thing that they seem willing to do is
37:35
Speaker 3: crack down on age verification in order to determine what
37:39
Speaker 3: can be used and what cannot.
37:40
Speaker 2: And look this is going on, which they say they're
37:42
Speaker 2: also going to verify using AI. I'm sure that's gonna
37:45
Speaker 2: work great.
37:45
Speaker 3: Yeah, they are not the only company that is struggling
37:48
Speaker 3: with this issue, and it will not be the last.
37:50
Speaker 3: But whether it's Facebook, Pair and Company Meta, whether it's
37:54
Speaker 3: Open AI, there are going to be some morally ambiguous
37:59
Speaker 3: use of AI that they're going to be continued pressure
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Speaker 3: to create.
38:03
Speaker 2: As we had to the top of the hour, the
38:05
Speaker 2: S and P and down now slightly negative, the Nasdaq
38:08
Speaker 2: holding on to quarter percent gains. So we got some
38:10
Speaker 2: inter day volatility, just like the last few days here,
38:14
Speaker 2: a lot of choppiness and markets a lot of sorting
38:16
Speaker 2: out going on. We'll be back tomorrow to finish up
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Speaker 2: the week. On the Financial Exchange