Latest / The Morning Edition / Now, it’s Putin’s turn. Will Xi Jinping encourage Russia to end the Ukraine war?
Transcript
- 0:07S1: Russian President Vladimir Putin has landed in China to meet
- 0:10S1: with XI Jinping, only days after the Chinese leader hosted
- 0:14S1: American President Donald Trump. But will Putin swoon like a
- 0:19S1: teenager on a date in a nice restaurant when he's
- 0:21S1: with XI Jinping, as Trump reportedly did? I'm Samantha Salinger Morris,
- 0:27S1: and you're listening to The Morning Edition from The Age
- 0:29S1: and The Sydney Morning Herald. Today, international and political editor
- 0:34S1: Peter Hartcher on the historic concessions that Trump has made
- 0:37S1: to China and what Putin is hoping to get out
- 0:41S1: of XI Jinping. It's May the 21st. Welcome back, Peter.
- 0:51S2: Pleasure to be with you, Samantha.
- 0:53S1: Okay, Peter, I'm hoping you can walk us through the
- 0:55S1: most consequential results of the summit that Donald Trump had
- 0:59S1: with XI Jinping last week. Some moments seemed even surprising
- 1:03S1: to me, even for Trump, so I can't wait to
- 1:05S1: hear what you think. So let's start with what Trump
- 1:08S1: told a reporter on Air Force One after the summit,
- 1:11S1: when the American president was asked if he raised the
- 1:15S1: issue of China's cyber security campaign against the U.S. with
- 1:19S1: XI Jinping.
- 1:21S2: Well, he said he did. But this is Trump. So
- 1:26S2: it's in an unconventional way. He said that he had
- 1:30S2: discussed it and that he said, you're talking about spying.
- 1:33S2: He said, we spy on them like hell.
- 1:37S3: The question was asked to me yesterday, I guess, what
- 1:41S3: about the fact that China's spying in the United States?
- 1:43S3: I said, well, it's one of those things because we
- 1:46S3: spy like hell on them, too.
- 1:48S2: So he said that he'd said to XI Jinping, we're
- 1:52S2: doing stuff to you that you probably don't know about,
- 1:54S2: and you're doing stuff to us that we probably do
- 1:56S2: know about. He said. You know, we're all he said
- 1:59S2: to the reporters, you know, we're all we're doing stuff
- 2:02S2: to them. They're doing stuff to us now as a
- 2:05S2: statement of fact, it's hard to fault it because that's
- 2:08S2: exactly what goes on and has been going on for
- 2:11S2: for decades. But as a political and national position for
- 2:16S2: a US president, it's a remarkable thing to say because
- 2:20S2: of the equivalence it grants the two countries. The two
- 2:22S2: efforts are. And it's like very early on, Trump was
- 2:28S2: asked a question in his last term, asked a question
- 2:30S2: about Vladimir Putin, about how he was going to treat Putin.
- 2:35S2: And somebody said to him, Putin is a killer. And
- 2:39S2: Trump's response was, well, do you think we're so pure?
- 2:43S2: So once again, it's Trump putting the US putting himself
- 2:47S2: on the same footing as the dictator of Russia and
- 2:51S2: the dictator of China and the two countries national purposes
- 2:55S2: and efforts on the same footing a complete equivalence. This
- 3:00S2: is a break with all us practice. Does it? Does
- 3:06S2: it advance the US national position to effectively be excusing
- 3:11S2: aggressive moves by the Russians, the Chinese against the US?
- 3:16S2: I don't think so. And you know, Trump openly says, oh,
- 3:21S2: maybe they're doing nasty stuff to us and we're doing
- 3:23S2: it to them. A few years ago, I asked Mike Rogers.
- 3:26S2: Mike Rogers was the American admiral who headed the National
- 3:30S2: Security Agency and was simultaneously head of their cyber war
- 3:34S2: and cyber defense institutions. I said, is it true that
- 3:40S2: the Chinese and the Russians are burying malware deep inside
- 3:46S2: the controlling infrastructure for your critical, critical systems in the US?
- 3:52S2: You know, everything from.
- 3:55S1: Transport.
- 3:56S2: Aerospace. Transport. Water supply. Satellite controls. And do you know.
- 4:03S2: Do you know what he said to me? Mike Rogers said,
- 4:06S2: we'll only know when they push the button.
- 4:11S1: Wow.
- 4:11S2: He said, we have no idea how. We said, we
- 4:13S2: know they do it. We don't know how extensive it
- 4:15S2: is or where it is. So this is how deep,
- 4:18S2: how deeply they've been infiltrated to the point where they
- 4:21S2: lost track. Wow. And they allowed their defenses to be
- 4:25S2: overcome in the cyber realm. And now Trump seems incapable
- 4:29S2: of doing anything to defend or advance the American interests
- 4:33S2: and simply makes excuses for it. And we even saw
- 4:38S2: reporting from the summit that Donald Trump had with XI Jinping. Apparently,
- 4:43S2: Donald Trump said to XI Jinping that he the three
- 4:47S2: the two of them should get together with Vladimir Putin
- 4:50S2: to work against the International Criminal Court Uh, that they
- 4:55S2: all hate it and they should work to try and
- 4:57S2: defeat it. Uh, go to war against it was the
- 5:00S2: expression I think he was reported to have used. So
- 5:04S2: Vladimir Putin already has an arrest warrant issued against him
- 5:07S2: by the International Criminal Court. Um, the other two don't.
- 5:10S2: But it tells you not only that, um, Trump might
- 5:14S2: be worried about his his future, but that and not
- 5:19S2: that the US has ever recognized the jurisdiction of the
- 5:21S2: International Criminal Court. But it also tells you that at
- 5:24S2: some personal and political level, he identifies with these guys
- 5:28S2: more than he does with Democratic leaders.
- 5:31S1: Which brings us to the news today as we're recording
- 5:33S1: on Wednesday, because, of course, President Vladimir Putin has landed
- 5:37S1: in Beijing to meet with XI Jinping. So do we
- 5:39S1: know what they're planning on discussing? And should we read
- 5:41S1: anything into the timing of this visit? I understand that
- 5:44S1: it's been long in the works, this meeting, but that
- 5:46S1: it was only confirmed hours after Trump wrapped up his
- 5:50S1: visit to Beijing. So tell us what to make of this.
- 5:53S2: Well, he's looking for a big deal. There's already a
- 5:57S2: big gas pipeline that runs from Russia into China. It's
- 6:01S2: been running for about 6 or 7 years now. It's
- 6:03S2: called the power of Siberia. One. Putin is now pushing
- 6:07S2: hard to get a second massive gas pipeline. The first
- 6:11S2: one supplies around 10% of China's total natural gas needs,
- 6:16S2: and another, another one. Power of Siberia, two imaginatively named,
- 6:20S2: would deliver about the same or a bit more gas
- 6:23S2: from Russia. Putin is sweating on this deal. He needs
- 6:27S2: this deal. Beijing has signed on to a memorandum of understanding.
- 6:32S2: Let's go ahead. But has yet to commit because there
- 6:37S2: the Chinese haven't agreed to the price. So a trip
- 6:41S2: by Putin to China in the first half of the
- 6:44S2: year was on the books. That was going to happen
- 6:46S2: at some point, but this date was only fixed recently
- 6:50S2: and it is no coincidence that Putin wants to talk
- 6:54S2: to XI Jinping shortly after the Trump visit. Uh, mainly
- 6:59S2: to find out what's going on, what what XI Jinping
- 7:04S2: might have learned, and specifically whether XI Jinping had given
- 7:07S2: any encouragement or succor or discouragement to Donald Trump. We
- 7:13S2: know from the Financial Times reporting that XI Jinping had
- 7:18S2: said to Donald Trump, it may be that Putin comes
- 7:22S2: to regret his invasion of Ukraine. Now, that's a pretty
- 7:26S2: powerful statement from a country. Beijing has said that Putin
- 7:30S2: must not be allowed to lose the war against Ukraine,
- 7:34S2: so that a few years ago. And now here's XI
- 7:36S2: Jinping saying he might come to regret it. This is
- 7:39S2: hardly the staunch defense of an ally that Putin would expect.
- 7:42S2: And I'm imagining that that reporting would have made him
- 7:45S2: a bit anxious.
- 7:47S1: So tell us a bit a bit about that, because
- 7:48S1: we know that Western countries have been urging Beijing to
- 7:52S1: pressure Moscow into ending this war. And we also know
- 7:55S1: that Moscow is heavily dependent on Beijing economically. China is
- 7:58S1: the main buyer of sanctioned Russian oil. So do we anticipate. Again,
- 8:02S1: I'm asking you to pull out your crystal ball here, Peter,
- 8:05S1: which is horrible. But I'm going to press ahead. I mean,
- 8:07S1: could XI Jinping be pressuring Putin to end this war?
- 8:13S2: It's we don't know. Yeah. My crystal ball gets cloudy
- 8:18S2: at that at that moment. But we do know that
- 8:23S2: Vladimir Putin fears that he probably doesn't have a lot
- 8:27S2: to fear on that score. But in a video that
- 8:31S2: he prerecorded and published while he was en route to Beijing,
- 8:36S2: he did say he talked up the relationship at an
- 8:39S2: unprecedented level. The usual, usual guff. But there was a
- 8:43S2: specific phrase where he said that this relationship is based
- 8:47S2: on each of us supporting the core interests, core interests
- 8:52S2: of the other.
- 8:55S4: Russia and China are actively expanding their contacts in politics,
- 8:58S4: the economy, and defense, while broadening humanitarian exchanges and encouraging
- 9:03S4: person to person interaction. It means that together, we are
- 9:06S4: doing everything that can further deepen bilateral collaboration and advance
- 9:10S4: the comprehensive development of our countries.
- 9:13S2: If you decode that, it has a very specific meaning
- 9:15S2: for China. Core interest applies to Taiwan and the future
- 9:19S2: of Taiwan and China's plans eventually to annex it, whether
- 9:24S2: peacefully or forcibly. They've kept all the options open and
- 9:27S2: core business for Russia is the Ukraine war. So that's
- 9:32S2: a statement of his expectation that he will offer support
- 9:37S2: to China over XI Jinping's plans for Taiwan, and he
- 9:42S2: expects China to continue supporting and cooperating with him in
- 9:46S2: the war against Ukraine, because so far China has been
- 9:50S2: absolutely essential to that war, not only in the dual
- 9:53S2: use technology, the electronics technology that they've been supplying, but
- 9:59S2: the sheer volume of cash that China spends buying Russian oil,
- 10:04S2: which is the single biggest factor allowing Russia to remain
- 10:09S2: solvent as a nation state and to continue fighting the war.
- 10:12S1: Okay, so tell us what's happening with Taiwan then, because
- 10:15S1: we spoke about this last week when, you know, obviously
- 10:18S1: it's a hugely contentious issue. So what happened when Trump
- 10:21S1: and XI Jinping discussed Taiwan and whether the United States
- 10:25S1: would continue its decades long tradition of supplying arms to
- 10:29S1: Taiwan to defend itself against any Chinese attack?
- 10:32S2: Yes. Going into that meeting, this was the single most
- 10:36S2: neuralgic question, really, or the single most potent question about
- 10:41S2: this relationship. And, Well, surprise, surprise, Donald Trump crashed through
- 10:49S2: the existing rules and protocols that had governed this. So
- 10:53S2: since 1979, when the US Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act,
- 10:58S2: the US has been permitted by law to supply arms
- 11:01S2: to Taiwan to defend itself against the mainland because of
- 11:05S2: an overhang of guilt and responsibility towards Taiwan. After switching
- 11:10S2: diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Beijing. And as part of
- 11:14S2: of that, Ronald Reagan in 1982 had issued what's known
- 11:18S2: as the six assurances to Taiwan, one of which was
- 11:22S2: to undertake that the US would undertake not to consult
- 11:26S2: with Beijing on arms sales to Taiwan. In other words,
- 11:30S2: we're not going to consult the Chinese. We're not going
- 11:31S2: to give them an opportunity to negotiate or get involved.
- 11:34S2: Our responsibility to you is to arm you so you
- 11:37S2: can defend yourselves. What Donald Trump did, a reporter asked him,
- 11:41S2: did you talk about arms sales? U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
- 11:46S2: And Trump said, no, that didn't come up. And then
- 11:48S2: a few seconds later, he said, we talked about it
- 11:50S2: in great detail.
- 11:51S3: No, I didn't say anything about it. But certainly, you know,
- 11:55S3: he brought that up. He talked about that to me, obviously.
- 11:58S3: So what am I going to do? I don't want
- 11:59S3: to talk to you about it because I have an
- 12:01S3: agreement that was signed in 1982. Uh, no, we discussed
- 12:05S3: arms sales to. And what's his request? We discussed the Taiwan.
- 12:10S3: You know, the whole thing with the arms sales was
- 12:13S3: in great detail, actually.
- 12:15S2: And so we now know that he broke the 1982
- 12:20S2: Reagan rule that has applied to every other president since.
- 12:24S2: There's a $14 billion US arms package that his white
- 12:27S2: House put together that is pending for white House approval now.
- 12:31S2: And Trump has said, I'm not sure what I'm going
- 12:33S2: to do about that. I might approve it, maybe I won't,
- 12:36S2: but XI Jinping is very concerned about it.
- 12:39S1: After the break.
- 12:41S2: The trade deal that Trump ended up doing with XI
- 12:43S2: Jinping was, by traditional standards and by Chinese US standards, trivial.
- 12:49S2: But in return for that, he was prepared to go
- 12:51S2: soft on all the other issues, including Taiwan.
- 12:58S1: You spoke with Kurt Campbell, who was in the Biden administration,
- 13:02S1: and he had some words to say about the fact
- 13:05S1: that Trump has broken this long standing tradition that, you know,
- 13:09S1: previous American presidents stood by, which was, of course, this
- 13:12S1: arming of Taiwan. So what did he have to say?
- 13:14S1: And and why does it matter? I guess because, you know,
- 13:17S1: this many years into Trump leading the country. He, you know,
- 13:20S1: the one through line, I guess that could be said
- 13:22S1: he has is that he breaks tradition. So why does
- 13:26S1: this one matter so much and is it consequential?
- 13:29S2: Well, in that it shifts the balance between of security
- 13:36S2: and degrades Taiwan's security. And XI Jinping will read into
- 13:41S2: that the same thing that everybody else is reading into that.
- 13:44S2: A preparedness to sell out Taiwan's interests to curry favor
- 13:50S2: with Beijing. Trump was in Beijing looking for a trade deal.
- 13:55S2: And it was he was making clear that he was
- 13:58S2: prepared to to trade Taiwan's interests. Now, later, he. In
- 14:01S2: a separate interview, he said, I know the policy hasn't changed,
- 14:04S2: but the fact is he changed it by having that conversation.
- 14:07S2: Kurt Campbell Kurt was the deputy secretary of state under
- 14:11S2: Joe Biden, but he's been a senior official, one of
- 14:15S2: the most experienced Asia officials in the entire US, been
- 14:19S2: in the Pentagon, the white House, State Department for senior
- 14:22S2: positions for over 30 years. He was the man who
- 14:26S2: the architect of the US pivot to Asia. He said
- 14:30S2: to me that it was a clear breach by Trump
- 14:33S2: of that protocol. And he said, I detect a distinct
- 14:36S2: waft of Russia, Ukraine in this China, Taiwan waiting that
- 14:44S2: Trump is applying. In other words, he's seeing the same thing,
- 14:48S2: the same pattern play out where Trump gives precedence to Russia,
- 14:53S2: a dictatorial traditional enemy of the US over Ukraine, a
- 14:57S2: smaller democratic state. And that's played out now as as
- 15:02S2: Kurt Campbell is observing in the way Trump gives priority
- 15:06S2: to the dictatorial, traditional enemy of the US over the
- 15:12S2: smaller democratic nation.
- 15:14S1: Okay, so he's he's breaking rules and traditions there that might,
- 15:18S1: of course, impact global security and the balance of power.
- 15:23S1: I wanted to ask whether he might be doing the
- 15:25S1: same thing on the trade front. I'm just wondering whether
- 15:29S1: Trump signaled during his summit with XI that the US
- 15:31S1: perhaps is past competing with China. And instead it's sort
- 15:34S1: of like in a let's cooperate acquiescing sort of mood,
- 15:39S1: because we know that China's foreign minister spoke during the
- 15:41S1: summit about the US and China, quote, respecting each other's
- 15:44S1: core interests and major concerns that would seem to suggest
- 15:47S1: he's saying, hey, America, you better put an end to
- 15:50S1: your competitive measures against us. So I'm just wondering if
- 15:53S1: Trump said anything that would suggest that, yeah, he's planning
- 15:56S1: on doing just that.
- 15:59S2: Well, he, uh, went to, to see XI Jinping in
- 16:04S2: a weakened condition because he's caught up in this war
- 16:07S2: in Iran, which he doesn't seem to be able to
- 16:09S2: win or to withdraw from. So he's stuck there. In fact,
- 16:13S2: there's a close parallel between these two leaders who've both
- 16:17S2: come to bend the knee to XI Jinping in Beijing
- 16:21S2: in this last week. Donald Trump, on the one hand,
- 16:24S2: caught up in this quagmire in Iran, and Vladimir Putin
- 16:28S2: caught up in his own quagmire in Ukraine. In both cases,
- 16:32S2: they don't seem to be able to win, but they
- 16:33S2: don't seem to be able to withdraw either, which just
- 16:36S2: highlights the strength of Beijing's position. And in fact, the
- 16:40S2: Beijing party owned media have been talking this up. They've
- 16:44S2: been talking up China's new centrality at the at the
- 16:48S2: center of global diplomacy. And it's true, both Putin and
- 16:53S2: Trump went as supplicants to see XI Jinping. They both
- 16:57S2: want support, and they both, above all, want trade deals
- 17:01S2: they need or think they need in Trump's case, think
- 17:04S2: they need the cash? Mhm. The trade deal that Trump
- 17:07S2: ended up doing with XI Jinping was, by traditional standards
- 17:11S2: and by Chinese U.S. standards, trivial. But in return for that,
- 17:16S2: he was prepared to go soft on all the other issues,
- 17:17S2: including Taiwan. Is this an end to, um, strategic competition
- 17:23S2: between the US and China? No, no, because other elements
- 17:27S2: of the US and the Trump administration are still imposing
- 17:32S2: tough measures on China.
- 17:34S1: Like what tariffs or.
- 17:36S2: So sanctions on. For example, a Chinese company provided targeting information,
- 17:43S2: access to one of their satellites to Iran to help
- 17:46S2: them bomb US planes and assets in the Middle East
- 17:49S2: during this war. So the Treasury Department is now applied
- 17:52S2: sanctions to the Chinese company and Chinese companies who were
- 17:55S2: involved in that effort. So that sort of stuff still occurs.
- 17:58S2: But at the top level, Trump has stopped the competition.
- 18:03S2: You'll remember last year he applied massive tariffs 145% plus
- 18:07S2: to China. China simply stepped stepped up and said and
- 18:11S2: punched him back and said, well, say goodbye to your
- 18:13S2: supply of rare earths and critical minerals. Yes, Trump dropped
- 18:16S2: his attempt at tariffs within two days. And and they've
- 18:20S2: now entered this sort of stasis or truce, really, where
- 18:23S2: neither is taking new trade measures against the other. So
- 18:27S2: at the top level, as far as so far as
- 18:29S2: Trump is concerned, he is he does seem to be
- 18:33S2: in some ways abandoning strategic competition with China. Yes. And
- 18:37S2: the other thing that he has done with this treatment
- 18:40S2: of Taiwan, and Kurt Campbell made this point to him
- 18:44S2: by demoting or degrading a US commitment to the defense
- 18:51S2: of Taiwan. He has made all US allies in the
- 18:55S2: region anxious, including Australia, including Japan, South Korea, the Philippines.
- 19:01S2: Because if he if he's prepared to trade off Taiwan
- 19:04S2: and I should point out, the Taiwanese president issued a
- 19:07S2: statement immediately saying, we refuse to be traded or bargained off.
- 19:11S2: But if he's prepared to trade the security of Taiwan
- 19:15S2: for other equities with the Chinese, then all allies in
- 19:20S2: the region think two things. One, if he's prepared to
- 19:23S2: do it with them, he might do it with us.
- 19:26S2: And second, in the event that China, one way or another,
- 19:30S2: does Establish effective control over Taiwan. It allows. That then
- 19:36S2: allows the People's Liberation Army Navy to push further and
- 19:41S2: beyond into the Western Pacific and simply making it much
- 19:45S2: more difficult for the US Navy to operate in the
- 19:48S2: Western Pacific. That would be an historic loss of space
- 19:53S2: control and hegemony for the US.
- 19:57S1: And it's got to be noted that, um, that she
- 20:00S1: is scheduled to visit the US on September 24th and
- 20:02S1: that Donald Trump and XI Jinping may meet again at
- 20:04S1: conferences scheduled for November and December.
- 20:07S2: That's an interesting point. Nobody in in this line of
- 20:11S2: work in the US that I talked to, ah, can
- 20:14S2: remember the last time a Chinese president committed specifically to
- 20:18S2: a particular visit on a date known well in advance
- 20:22S2: like this. Normally it's reserved as a bit of a negotiating.
- 20:25S1: So what does that suggest?
- 20:26S2: Well, Kurt Campbell's summary to me was this shows a
- 20:30S2: level of confidence that Beijing has got Trump under control.
- 20:35S1: Where he.
- 20:35S2: Wants it, that we've never seen before. XI Jinping's thinking
- 20:39S2: I've got absolutely nothing to lose dealing with Donald Trump
- 20:42S2: because I know how to deal with this guy.
- 20:44S1: Well, I might wrap up, Peter, but just kidding you
- 20:47S1: to comment on something I read. Like, is there bromance
- 20:49S1: at a high, much to the detriment, I would imagine,
- 20:52S1: for Americans because I read one journalist put it like
- 20:54S1: this in China, she took him meaning Trump on a
- 20:58S1: tour of a private garden and like a swooning teenager
- 21:01S1: on a date in a nice restaurant, Trump asked whether
- 21:03S1: the Chinese leader ever took other foreign guests to the
- 21:06S1: same place. I was just like, oh no.
- 21:11S2: It's pretty embarrassing. In fact, Trump was lavishing flattery upon
- 21:16S2: XI Jinping, and XI Jinping stood back and he said
- 21:20S2: it was a historic visit, and it was an important
- 21:23S2: moment and all of that stuff. But he did not
- 21:25S2: lavish personal praise on Donald Trump. Not one bit. Trump
- 21:29S2: was all over him.
- 21:30S1: It's like an Archie comic, but but geopolitical power and
- 21:33S1: economic security. Yeah.
- 21:36S2: And I'm not, I hasten to add. Yes. I would
- 21:39S2: feel embarrassed. Yeah. To see my president behaving like that
- 21:44S2: with the dictator of China. Absolutely.
- 21:47S1: So you and I should be on the lookout for
- 21:49S1: for swooning. Coming over. Global videotape. September, November and December.
- 21:54S2: Cover your eyes.
- 21:55S1: Okay. Thanks, Peter. As always.
- 21:57S2: Pleasure, Samantha.
- 22:09S1: In other news, today, Australia's health practitioner watchdog is investigating
- 22:13S1: four dentists at one of the country's largest cosmetic dental chains,
- 22:18S1: following allegations that they use predatory practices to encourage patients
- 22:23S1: to access their superannuation early to fund veneers. according to
- 22:28S1: the executors of Graham Richardson's estate. The former labor senator,
- 22:32S1: lobbyist and master of stealth enrichment died penniless, and the
- 22:38S1: enhanced games will kick off in Las Vegas on Monday.
- 22:41S1: Australian time and feature Olympic medallists using performance enhancing drugs
- 22:46S1: under medical supervision. We have everything you need to know
- 22:49S1: about this competition that's been likened to a steroid fuelled circus.
- 22:54S1: You can read more at the age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's
- 23:01S1: episode was produced by Kai Wong. Our executive producer is
- 23:05S1: Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy
- 23:09S1: and Tom McKendrick. If you like our show, follow The
- 23:12S1: Morning Edition and leave a review for us on Apple
- 23:15S1: or Spotify. Thanks for listening.