Latest / Beyond the Summit with Amir Golshani / Iran’s Next Move: Dirty Bomb, Ceasefire… or War Again? | Farzin Nadimi
Transcript
- Amir Golshani: Welcome back. We are living through what may be the most volatile two weeks in modern history. After 40 days of unprecedented conflict between the United States and Israel on one side regime of Iran the other side, a fragile ceasefire stands. But beneath the surface, the gears of war and high stakes diplomacy are still turning. To understand the why behind the missiles, the secret negotiations in Islamabad, and the survival tactics of the Islamic regime, we are joined by one of the world's preeminent security and defense analysts. He's a senior fellow at Washington Institute for Near East Policy and veteran historian of the Iran-Iraq War, and the man who has spent decades mapping the technical and psychological architecture of the IRGC. Dr. Farzin Nadeemi, it's a real honor to have you here. F Nadimi: The honor is all mine. Thank you for having me. Amir Golshani: Fantastic. Before we dive into the current battlefield, I want to understand the lens through which you see the world. You grew up during the 1979 revolution and the Iran-Iraq war. Many people look at war as a tragedy to escape. You chose to make war studies your life's work at King's College. What a specific moment in your youth convinced you that you needed to master the mechanics of military power to Iran's future. F Nadimi: I'm from a generation that grew up in the revolution and war and to a large degree that was inevitable. I ⁓ had opportunity to choose to study, King's College. I studied the theories war, especially when was to write a dissertation. I chose the topic Khark Island ⁓ I had co-authored a book. on the Iran-Iraq air war and realized that Kharq Island was a very unique part of the psyche of Iran during that war and one of the front lines. And I studied and wrote my dissertation on Kharq Island, which was the start of getting even more submerged in the history of Iran's oil industry and the Sikhanovic Warfare when I was later, I did my PhD. Amir Golshani: All right. ⁓ It is amazing at the same time, fascinating how you found your true calling at early ages. Thank you for sharing that. So ⁓ let's talk about the last 40 days. The U.S. has shown overwhelming force, but the regime is still standing. By all open source accounts, the Iranian Navy and defense system have been decimated. Yet they managed to strike Diego Garcia and you know, so they downed F-15 and the rescue mission afterward. In your professional evaluation, did the IRGC perform better or worse than Western intelligence anticipated in a high intensity conflict? F Nadimi: Well, think for years the IRGC planned to operate as it did. IRGC, the regime, at war with Israel, the United States for decades. they have been for ⁓ exactly this kind of war for long time, probably under different circumstances, yes. It was the sacred defense or sacred war ⁓ against imperialistic regimes the so-called imperialistic regimes of the Persian Gulf, the monarchies, U.S. imperialists, quote unquote, and ⁓ the Zionist entity, quote unquote. Amir Golshani: So called, yeah. F Nadimi: altogether. It has just the perfect war, but they planned it under circumstances. They hoped that they would do it with better economies, under effective air defense umbrella, and with a ⁓ cohesive society. They wanted the ultimate war to be much better coordinated, with much more powerful proxies, the Hezbollah, the Iraqi Shiites, and the Hamas in But didn't pan out that way. Their relations the people ⁓ was probably one its worst times, especially after massacre of Iranians in January. of this year. The proxies after years of Israeli intensive war with Hezbollah, with Hamas, they weren't in a good shape, so to say. And Iran's economy was much worse than they hoped for when they were planning such a war of... final war, let's say, with the imperialists. So this wasn't a perfect time or perfect conditions, but again, the planning was there. The IRGC missile force had been making for years. It started during the Iran-IRAQ, I argue that started during the offensive phase, after they liberated. Iranian lands from the Iraqis and started seriously think about dismantling the regime and Saddam Hussein. and ⁓ foremost obtaining missiles from Libya and North Korea. And a later stage, after the war ended, ⁓ they— this ballistic missile ⁓ with the help of North Korea. And then they ⁓ help from, ⁓ the collapse of the Soviet Union, ⁓ Russian ⁓ and Ukrainian scientists helped them. But again, a large degree, was a locally developed industry with the help ⁓ of ⁓ foreigners, technologies, but mostly local industries. built all those missile bases on their ground, highly hardened missile bases that we know how they are in terms of resistance to ⁓ And developed asymmetric naval tactics with all those small speedboats exactly to avoid a to conventional Navy in terms. ⁓ they built large number of ⁓ smaller boats with heavily armed ⁓ rocket later anti-ship missiles. ⁓ And they up this array of hardened ⁓ coastal defensive hardened facilities, ⁓ fortifications, defensive fortifications. offensive capability ⁓ ⁓ now cruise missiles and anti-ship ballistic missiles. So they have these multi-layered offensive defensive naval capabilities. They have long range short, and long range ballistic missile capabilities. we did, sorry, we've... ⁓ Amir Golshani: So what is the... F Nadimi: specifically with the objective of reaching Israel ⁓ a sacred war ⁓ ⁓ they decide to ⁓ Israel as a country the Middle East, but also to put pressure ⁓ on United States and United States bases in the region, exactly because United States ⁓ would be to support Israel ⁓ in this war. Also, they developed this mosaic defense for their ground forces, the IRGC, the besiege, and later they developed the besiege to become an integral part of the IRGC in the past 12 years or so. Amir Golshani: So obviously, as you mentioned, they have been prepared for these four years, what is the real estimation is hard, hard to do that. But maybe there are some open source intelligence or some sources that you have access to, there are some estimation thousands, 2000, 3000, 10,000, you know, so half of this is gone, you know, 70 % is. blown up and then you read into this are kind of estimations. F Nadimi: Well, we don't access to secret intelligence. These are all estimates, open source estimates. We cannot be sure. Even if we hear estimates from governments, from intelligence communities, again, they are declassified. Amir Golshani: Obviously, F Nadimi: But this has been, June war, this latest war, these have been the first cases of true ⁓ long-range fires between two states. And ⁓ these are very because there is no exchange of lands, there is no food soldiers, ⁓ mostly ⁓ long-range exchanges. And the effects of long-range fires is the determining factor. Although there are other factors like narrative war is very important in the long richwaters war because you how you define victory and how you project victory and success is very important. We are seeing these days these narratives that the Iranian regime and the US administration and Israeli government are putting out about ⁓ how they achieved historic victory. this war with an arsenal of thousands of ballistic missiles. Well, there have been various estimates of between 2,000 and 3,000 missiles that have a range sufficient to reach Israel, which is over 1,200 kilometers. up to a range of 2,000 kilometers, which is the maximum range of Khurram Shar for missile. And they about twice that size of probabilistic missiles with ranges sufficient to reach Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, ⁓ Bahrain. they have a large number of missiles. And we can assume even though there have reports of large... ⁓ stockpiles of missiles have been destroyed and we have been seeing videos of these missile stockpiles and bases continuously by air power, by standoff and standing ⁓ bombing ⁓ Again, can safely ⁓ assume at least half of that missile stockpile the bombings, ⁓ specifically because have been stored in ⁓ the heavily reinforced, protected sites. Amir Golshani: Protected, Perfect. this is a great point. ⁓ have analyzed the Fatah and Iran's underground missile cities for years. Based your research, what is the ⁓ ace haven't played yet? Is there a capability perhaps in the realm of EMP technology or advanced Russian-supplied electronic warfare that Washington should be genuinely worried about during the truce? F Nadimi: Well, ⁓ Russia has provided Iran with some capabilities to jam satellite communications, to jam drone communications, Iran has been using ⁓ those There were videos by the Israeli Defense Forces, by the ⁓ CENTCOM that showed some of those stations targeted and destroyed, but we can assume that Iran has retained capabilities to jam GPS signals and we see that these capabilities exist and also satellite communications. Whether they will expand, we can assume that with the ceasefire and cessation of hostilities, Iran will try to buy more electronic warfare equipment from Russia and probably from China as well in order to better defend against GPS-guided weapons, precision-guided weapons, also GPS-guided loitering drones and one-way attack drones like Lucas, which is guided by the Starlink system. Amir Golshani: Right okay so nothing you know really horrific to be worried about at least something which is known. F Nadimi: Well, Iran has very advanced ballistic missile technology with regard to precision and... warhead survivability, we can assume. Well, they have used their KHoramshahr missile with that. Cluster warheads have constantly been using them Israeli cities. Because their survivability, they are more likely survive Israeli anti-missile interceptors because they open up ⁓ at high and they Amir Golshani: that they haven't used it yet. F Nadimi: They release those subunitions and some versions have released 80 subunitions, some about 35 depending on the type of the missile and ⁓ ⁓ Amir Golshani: The reason that I'm asking this because there has been a constant rhetoric about, haven't seen what we still have, what we haven't used yet. I don't know, it's pure 100 % rhetoric or there might be something. F Nadimi: Well, there have been probably a couple of missile types that we know ⁓ unveiled and are shown. ⁓ don't know if they've entered any serious production or operational status. ⁓ is a version, ⁓ electro-optical guided version of the ⁓ ⁓ missile, is named Qasem Basir, or a similar version of Imad ballistic Amir Golshani: Qasem-e Basir, I suppose. F Nadimi: which we haven't seen them operationally used. There's also the second generation of FATAH ballistic missile, the FATAH-2, which has on its nose, it has a hypersonic cruise missile, HCM warhead. ⁓ HCM can very deadly if ⁓ used, it precision capability and it can be used against maritime targets, for example aircraft carriers. ⁓ at some point, if they develop an anti-ship version of these ⁓ missiles, they can ⁓ serious threats against ⁓ carrier groups. ⁓ heard that during ⁓ 37-day operation, they launched at least 100 cruise missiles and ballistic missiles against Abraham Lincoln carrier star group alone, ⁓ none of them very successful. They shut them down. But they use a very sophisticated anti-ship, ⁓ hypersonic missiles ⁓ against targets, we can that they might have better chances in the future. Amir Golshani: Right. the next question is about possibilities and probabilities. There are whispers that the regime has used the fog of war to move 60 % enriched uranium to Black site for final weaponization. Realistically, do you think they are close to a dirty bomb or ICBM capability today compared to 40 days ago? F Nadimi: I think Iran has the capability for developing fairly quickly in ICBM. Because IRGC and the Ministry of Defense, they have had separate programs to develop SLVs, satellite launch vehicles. I think Iran has the capability for developing fairly quickly in ICBM. Because IRGC and the Ministry of Defense, they have had separate programs to develop SLVs, satellite launch vehicles. We know that there are technological overlaps between ICBMs and SLVs, especially the solid propellant versions, the Gaim Gasset. ⁓ SLVs that IRGC has been developing. They look very much like military ballistic missiles and they are highly mobile. They seem to be technologically matured. Therefore, I don't think that they will have any problem further developing those rockets into ICBMs. And the capability is there. I think it's only a matter of funding and a safe place to do that. probably underground. We can assume that in the future they will move a of their missile developments and production underground in order to survive future air strikes. But the of ⁓ the Degarcia missile that showed that there have been work in progress with regard to ⁓ developing missiles with ranges that reach 4000 kilometers. ⁓ spoke to people who said the of the missile actually, the proof that those missiles had the sufficient range. Fortunately, they were down or they had ⁓ developed technical problems, couldn't their targets, but the trajectory was there. What type of missiles they I'm not sure. They could be further developed Khurramshahr missiles or... or developed Ghased I'm sure about any of those. either way, we chose as suspected. ⁓ I suspected this many years, that they were developing ⁓ IRBMs they were having C on their sides as potential target. Amir Golshani: So how about the weaponization of enriched uranium? F Nadimi: We can almost be sure that with this regime in place, and it's still the same regime, no matter how politicians are trying to portray that as a completely new regime, I think it's still same regime, probably even more vengeful and hard-line and very much determined to become even more powerful. Amir Golshani: Heartline, yeah, exactly. F Nadimi: Therefore, achieving the nuclear weapon status, think that's where this regime will go. And with that 60 % in uranium, I think they can start with dirty bomb. Yes, that's the quickest way of the possibility. But I think they also will consider types of... that 60 % in uranium, I think they can start with dirty bomb. Amir Golshani: Possibility. Yeah F Nadimi: nuclear weapons that ⁓ easier to ⁓ and field, like the gun type, the Hiroshima-style nuclear bomb, are much easier to develop and ⁓ produce compared the implosion ⁓ device. They more sophisticated because of the explosive mechanism. ⁓ more But gun side bomb is much easier. And I think that could be they want to initially go and then they will develop further and produce several designs of their atomic bombs. Looking back ⁓ their missile I tried to learn about how they about developing ⁓ complex projects. If look at how they, when they decided to develop a precision guided ballistic missile, They commissioned scientific from Russia, from Ukraine, and from Iran separately without any of knowing about the other. ⁓ And developed the technologies, very precision guidance technologies for their ballistic missiles. ⁓ any of achieved results and they were fielded. we can assume that for the... ⁓ Amir Golshani: Great. F Nadimi: future nuclear weapons, will do the same. Developing dirty bombs, developing gun type bombs, and developing implosion devices. I think they will try to go down ⁓ those avenues. Amir Golshani: It's not hard to imagine specifically after this war that if they survive, which I believe, you know, it's not over yet. They definitely, you know, we look for something, ⁓ some of ultimate deterrence, which is obviously a nuclear bomb. we have seen reports UAE involvement. in the strikes as recently as this morning. So how fragile is this ceasefire when regional players like UAE and Israel seem to have different red lines than the Trump administration? F Nadimi: Yes, I think it's a very fragile ceasefire. And even if it holds, I think it will be only a matter of time before the guns start again. The IRGC should be expected to immediately start rebuilding its missile bases. The ⁓ military will start to rebuild, as they did after the 12-day war. it's a very fragile ceasefire. And even if it holds, I think it will be only a matter of time before the guns start again. The IRGC should be expected to immediately start rebuilding its missile bases. The ⁓ military industry will start rebuild, as they did after the 12-day war. Amir Golshani: Right. Right. F Nadimi: pressure from the now very militarized political establishment. And I think that will very quickly show the Western countries, United States, Israel, that they probably would need to go back in pretty soon. But because of the level of damage that they inflicted... during this 37-day war, it probably might be a little longer compared to the 12-day war. But within a year, think, if this ceasefire holds for a few ⁓ or for a two-week period that it was designed for, I within a year we will see another round of ⁓ very high intensity fighting Iran and the United States and Israel. Amir Golshani: realistically, who does this two week pause benefit more? Is it the US allowing them to reposition because they are deploying more assets and drop oil prices, which already happened? Or is it the IRGC giving them time dig in and hide their remaining mobile launchers among civilian infrastructures? or resupplying from China and Russia. What do you think? Who's the winner of these two week pause F Nadimi: I think all sides will benefit from this pause all sides are tired. All sides have empty magazines and I think... pause will give them time to fill their stocks. And Israel will have more time to ⁓ look at and try to deal with the Hezbollah ⁓ in southern Lebanon, least the pressures ⁓ from the States is a degree that they will have to stop as well. for we see that Israel ⁓ probably ⁓ a light from the US administration to go ahead and try to address this Bolot problem. But yes, I think sides will try ⁓ reposition. United States definitely try to replenish the Obama stocks and try to in some assets. We know that aircraft carrier is on its way. The USS Boxer ⁓ group, George W. Bush probably will ⁓ ⁓ Ford, ⁓ maybe another carrier group be in the region ⁓ in the months as well. For Iran, Iran watched very closely, definitely. And I think both Israeli and US satellites and even drones ⁓ will... ⁓ will watch Iran Iranian movements, IRGC's missiles, arsenal ⁓ their launchers, ⁓ they will try to do as much as possible under concealed conditions. But again, they watched closely, but it will not prevent them from trying to rebuild and move assets around as did after the 12th. Amir Golshani: Right. You mentioned Hezbollah as the most powerful or the most important proxy for the Islamic regime. And we know that Pakistan mediated this deal and Iran claims Lebanon is included. But Israel is intensifying the strikes on Beirut as we speak. If Lebanon is excluded, does the Axis effectively collapse, leaving the IRGC alone in the next round of fighting? F Nadimi: Yes, I think if the RGC does not intervene in support of Hezbollah, I think that that will seriously the level of trust between the two. But am also suspect that probably ⁓ at point the US administration will put enough pressure on Israeli government to stop the heavy bombing, least the heavy bombing that they are... they are subjecting Hezbollah to. However, there is also another issue and that's the presence of Israeli forces south of the Litani River. And not sure that Israel is in a position to leave Lebanon now. Therefore, there is going to be frictions there and how... I think IRGC will to stay, Iran will try to stay away from ⁓ a localized friction Israel and Hezbollah ⁓ until... ⁓ at some point maybe if there's a ⁓ exchange of ⁓ and missiles in future, will ⁓ either receive ill pressure, the regime to intervene in some way. So far, nothing from Iranian side and we have to see whether ⁓ that will continue. Amir Golshani: Is it fair to say as long as it's not existential to Hezbollah, so Iran rather not to intervene? Okay. F Nadimi: Yes, I think that's a fair conclusion. Amir Golshani: Good. So another issue is the name Mohammed Baghir Ghalibov is being floated as a top negotiator. You have followed his career from the IRGC to the parliament given his history in the suppression apparatus, can the West actually negotiating a lasting peace? with a man who is essentially the personification of the IRGC interests. F Nadimi: Well, call me very skeptical. very skeptical about the whole negotiating thing the United States and the new, so the quote unquote new regime in Iran. ⁓ think whoever that now is responsible for these negotiations do not have any ⁓ different agenda, mandate to negotiate with. administration and I'm very skeptical about you're willing or prepared to relent in very important aspects of the missile program and nuclear and proxy relations, you name it. I don't think probably the ⁓ is is trying to play with the minds of the Iranian regime or certain factions within regime or there are political reasons, domestic political reasons, there are market reasons, the of oil you mentioned. ⁓ But I'm skeptical that any negotiations will reach any real conclusions will result in lasting peace in region. Amir Golshani: So before our conversation, was a news breaking news that Vice President Vance and US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner is heading toward Islamabad. there is. a deep fear among Iranians that the US is looking for Delci Rodriguez model like Venezuela, a regime insider who can keep the oil flowing while the system remains intact. Why is this model a mirage when it comes to the ideological structure of the Islamic Republic? I believe it's an illusion. F Nadimi: Well, I... Yeah, I agree with you. don't think, I think there are a lot of differences between Venezuela and Iran. Foremost, I think the most obvious difference is the Venezuelan military ⁓ The military is very pro-Western, ⁓ though they try to look anti-Bolivarian, but the Venezuelan is pro-Western and ⁓ they pose serious ⁓ problem. regarding the removal the Madura With regard to Iran, think, the predominant military force in is IRGC, Stillery Anti-Western. ⁓ I ⁓ don't believe that we count in Artesh very much. Artesh showed that they are very much neutralized and even should not very much ⁓ on Artesh for supporting role in any future revolutions. I doubt ⁓ Venezuelan model will Even Galibov, I can't see real moderate the security establishment in Iran that could such a model, then Ghalibov is, I don't think it's in that position to do much help. therefore, ⁓ to large think that's mostly wishful thinking. Amir Golshani: Yeah, some analysts believe, you know, so having a new Kim Jong-un, you know, the Iranian version would be more probable than Delci Rodriguez. is that personally makes me really sad, and that's what media is not paying enough attention or they're not talking enough about its Iranian people. having a new Kim Jong-un, you know, Iranian version would be more probable than Delci Rodriguez. There is something that personally makes me sad, and that's what media is not paying enough attention or they're not talking enough about its people. While the missiles fly, the Iranian people are in total darkness. Internet blackout, economic collapse, and even 100 times, even not more, worse reality than before the war. While the missiles fly, the Iranian people are in total darkness. Internet blackout, economic collapse, and even 100 times, even not more, worse reality than before the war. This regime right now claims victory because they survived the 40 days. But with the infrastructure crumbling, what are they actually surviving for? F Nadimi: think that they are designed to survive. I think they have a ⁓ survival instinct because ⁓ though great majority the regime figures are very corrupt, but I think their ideology is still very powerful. ⁓ Iran is a renter economy. have oil, and they can export oil products, better chemicals. They hope that ⁓ will be sanction waivers, they will be able to export more oil. this corrupt regime, every security group will have their own share of the oil and ⁓ they think they ⁓ survive, that they will even thrive. use a lot of those funding to rebuild their military industrial complex, their missile bases, their security, most importantly probably, their security infrastructure, the police stations, their prisons, ⁓ and they probably build better ones, I'm afraid. I think they will build better missile bases, they will ⁓ develop better ⁓ better drones. they will probably build better ones, I'm afraid. I they will build better missile bases, they will ⁓ develop better missiles, ⁓ better drones. don't care about people, they don't care about infrastructure. don't care about people, they don't care about infrastructure. ⁓ they will do some superficial projects, but most will go to the security ⁓ and and everything that works well, ballistic missiles, drones, also ⁓ those communications and oppressive systems. that need to be rebuilt, police stations, bASIJ station stations, they will try to ⁓ them again more So I'm that we will soon, within a few or a year, we ⁓ will see a more effective and more military security establishment within Iran, if they're allowed to survive. ⁓ Amir Golshani: I hope this is not the scenario because as usual the main victim, they will be people. F Nadimi: Well, yes. Unfortunately, the main victim will be the people. They will see. They will see how these new oil revenues will be allocated. I think they will make the right decision on how to rise up, how to protest, how to... raise their voice and I think will see how is going, this will go. ⁓ And we know what happened Khurramshahr after the Iran-Iraq war. Khurramshahr is an underdeveloped, ⁓ many parts the city hasn't been rebuilt after so many decades after the Iran-Rakhwar. think the larger scheme of things ⁓ is going to be the with Iran. we will see Ports, infrastructure, damage to many of those ⁓ will be left in ⁓ for to come unless they want or they need to rebuild them for their purposes. if they think that they need to move ⁓ assets around quickly, security forces around, they will rebuild ⁓ definitely the ⁓ heliports. They will buy more helicopters for their police force from Russia and China in order to be able to move assets ⁓ security forces around because of the survival instinct that they have. They need to ⁓ because ideologically want to attach ⁓ the to the ⁓ 12th Imam. That's one the reasons ⁓ that they to survive and also they need to survive because they need to survive and also they need to because they have nowhere to go. have, have a, they're control of the oil revenue and they have pockets. have nowhere to go. in control of the oil and they have deep pockets. Amir Golshani: Right, you're right. Absolutely. These are the worst case scenarios that we are talking about. They're probable, possible, yes, in my opinion, but the war is not over yet everything is changing round the clock. Dr. for the audience watching or listening, who wants free and secular Iran, if the 10 point and 15 point demands are irreconcilable, for the audience watching or listening, who wants a free and secular Iran, if the 10 point and 15 point demands are irreconcilable, What is the most likely military end game? What is the most likely military end game? Do you see a transition or are we simply waiting for the timer on these two victory to hit zero? F Nadimi: we can assume that this will hold for a while. I'm not sure if ⁓ we will resumption of hostilities right the two week. If it's going to happen, it will happen much quicker ⁓ and ⁓ well before the two week ⁓ I think that ⁓ this will for some Amir Golshani: before. Okay. F Nadimi: the Israeli and the US will realize that this regime hasn't changed. ⁓ regime has the same instincts, the survival instincts. they are spending in ⁓ the missile program, ⁓ their drone their stockpiling ⁓ they plan for another ⁓ campaign. But how that military campaign will be from this last one, I'm ⁓ not sure. President ⁓ Trump will have the same ⁓ and determination to this military strike with dimensions, with the help Israel, ⁓ and with Netanyahu is still in charge, he's still prime minister of Israel. A ⁓ of things came ⁓ to give ⁓ dissent company, military, this opportunity to ⁓ go ahead their plannings and all those plans that they had to dismantle Iran's capabilities. Islamic regime and its oppressive system and whether all these elements will come back together to create a similar situation. I don't know. It depends on lot on politics and domestic politics in Israel, in the United States, and also in Iran. Amir Golshani: That being said, there is a serious and maybe concerning question. there is tactical and operational achievements, which we can see they have targeted thousands and thousands of targets, inflicted serious damage. But this war mission, enriched uranium, so control over Strait of Hormuz. there is a serious and maybe concerning question. there is tactical and operational achievements, missile and drone capabilities, as you mentioned, they're damaged severely, but still standing. None those objectives of the whole operation has been achieved. So then the question is that what was this war for? Yes, it is weakened. We know that 100 percent, but mission is not accomplished yet. mission is not accomplished yet. F Nadimi: Yes, mission not accomplished. think one of the objectives was downgrade, to dismantle Iran's missile industries, their capabilities to produce offensive weapons, ⁓ including and I think ⁓ they were successful inflicting serious damage on Iran's military-industrial complex. They tried very hard to degrade the IRGC's missile bases and prevent them from launching large numbers, at least large numbers of missiles on daily basis, which to a degree, they were successful. But still, the IRGC manages to fire between 10 and 20 missiles per day. And some of them pass through defensive shields and still inflict damage, especially in Israel, probably to a lesser degree in the Persian Gulf region. For some very good reason that Iran's medium-range ballistic missiles are more effective ⁓ ⁓ advanced. They have been using ⁓ effective ⁓ against Israelis, therefore have a better chance of penetrating Israeli But yes, think, yeah, exactly. think whether Iran, the current regime, will agree to hand over the enriched uranium or not, I think if they don't. The Secretary of of the United said the U.S. military would go back in to recover those 460 kilograms of Amir Golshani: No regime change, no uranium enrichment. F Nadimi: in rich uranium and there's about 189 kilograms of 20 percent in rich uranium which we don't know where exactly they are too. I think it's Given the experience of recovering those downed crew ⁓ of F-15E that shot on Saturday, it will be very, it be an ⁓ easy undertaking. ⁓ And it require ⁓ ground to occupy the area ⁓ and ⁓ put up defenses and not to neutralize. the locals, create a safe landing area, they'll have to be prepared to defend against their enablers, missiles and drones for and prolonged operation to recover those erishuriums. It will take ⁓ days not weeks and that take ⁓ a lot ⁓ ground forces guess. And they also upset the dismantling of Iran's navy as a military objective. They keep talking about that. Yes, they destroyed Iran's navy, but Iran's navy was never a real threat. speaking, Iran's was ⁓ a real The threat was the IRGC's navy. The Revolutionary Navy was the real threat. And according to Joint Chief of Staff today in the Pentagon briefing, only about 50 % of the IRGC's Navy has been destroyed. And I'm a little skeptical about that. I think probably smaller. can put it at about 30 to 40 % of the IRGC Navy's capabilities have been destroyed. the threatening nature and asymmetric ⁓ nature of the IRGC Navy, think that's a far more serious threat to the freedom of navigation in the region than Iran's Navy. Yes, it has ⁓ destroyed sink, underwater, but I think again not correct objective. And they talked about Iranian air force, we know that Iranian air was hardly flyable. Iran's base is very spectacular. On the paper on destroying all those ⁓ disused F-14s, but again, a serious threat. Amir Golshani: is there that I haven't asked you about, but that you believe it's critical for the world to understand right now? F Nadimi: Well, I the world needs to know that ⁓ regime is the same regime. They are with the difference that they are now more vengeful. The new rulers, leaders, they are more To harm the United States' interests and to push the United States out of the region, we can safely ⁓ that. ⁓ In fact, ⁓ has been part of their 10-point plan that they won't use ⁓ or combat-capable military forces out of ⁓ the And unless we adhere that demand, I think that is, again, the ⁓ major point contention between... Iran and the United States. I think we have to understand that this regime is going to be even a more hostile regime toward the US interests and it will be more hostile to its own people as well. And we know that the very good majority of Iranian people are very pro-Western, pro-United States and they at least... So far they have had a good view of the ⁓ administration, ⁓ that could change. ⁓ could change if they feel betrayed, if they feel left behind. And if in case will lose a very good friend in terms of an entity, ⁓ general, the Iranian people in region. I think that will be a major loss. Amir Golshani: Yeah, I appreciate that. like to close on a personal note. After that you have seen and done, what does word freedom mean to you today? F Nadimi: we freedom now for granted, ⁓ but it is that is ⁓ worth fighting for. it is worth fighting for, is standing for. ⁓ it is very personal, but exactly because it's we expand our definition of freedom to anybody and we respect... individual freedom is as as the definition for ⁓ Amir Golshani: Dr. Nademi, thank you for taking us beyond the headlines. F Nadimi: Thank you for having me.