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The Favorites - March Madness Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
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• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I'm Shad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: It's the Tuesday before March Madness begins. It's the most
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: wonderful time of the year. I am joined as I
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: am for every episode by my co host, my bff,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: my companion, Mike and Padre Professional Better Simon Hunter. Aloha
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: swim in Aloha Chat. What a weekend we had? Rather
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Duke won the ACC tournament unc isn't in March Madness
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: and the Bears traded the number one pick Chat. What
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: a weekend we listen, We're gonna get to March Madness
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: because I am so stoked about it. And our guest
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: today is Action Network Og, the first person I had
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: dinner with when I joined Action Network, which wasn't even
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Action Network yet. We're talking September of twenty seventeen, a
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: leve ESPN on a Friday. That Monday, I'm in the
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: City Tuesday night, I go to dinner with the one
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: named Wonder Stucky, host of our BBOC podcasts covering college
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: football and college basketball, host of our BBOC Live show.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: The guy has gone from you know, financy year to
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: full time media professional who can handle it all. He
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: was also host to Me and You, Simon and Matt Mitchell.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: We had a great weekend in Lexington in the fall
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: for the Breeders Cup. We're gonna bring him on in
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: one second. Um, We're gonna talk all things March Madness
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: because he's brilliant at it. Named himself after his favorite
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: college basketball player. That's how much he loves and knows
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: college basketball. These fucking Bears, man, these fucking Bears. They
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: signed t J. Edwards from the Philadelphia Eagles. They're leading tackler.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: They signed Tremaine Edmonds from the Buffalo Bills. Me, you
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: and Mitchell have been talking about that the last couple
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: of days, and you've kind of both been bringing me
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: down about the signing. They've they've traded the number one pick,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: put ourselves in a position to get what we need.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: In DJ Moore, I contend that Josh Allen did not
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: become Josh Allen until he had Stefan Diggs. Justin Fields
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: cannot be Justin Fields to his full potential until I
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: have someone like DJ Moore. We're building something special. No,
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: we love it. And it's as people were giving him shit.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: They're like, oh, you're just making a pick on the Bear,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: just as you do this show with Chad. I don't
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: care who Chad likes. That's irrelevant to me. Betting a
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl future, So feeling pretty good. If you got
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: the Bears at one hundred to one or eighty to one,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: now they're down to fifty to one. This is a
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  Speaker 1: scenario we dreamed of. They have the weapons, are slowly
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: adding the weapons the defensive side and the offensive side
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: of the ball. And if they keep adding guys at
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: offensive line again, I think you guys still have about
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: forty million left the spender or maybe forty five million
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: left to me, there's still room doing proof for this
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Bears team and we're still just waiting just like everyone else.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: If it Rogers leaves that division, chat I can easily
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: see the Bears going from plus three hundred to maybe
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: plus two fifty plus two hundred to win that division.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: So it's really exciting if you're a Bears fan or
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: a Bears backer, just because they made the moves we're
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: hoping for. So yeah, it's never a dull nummon with
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the NFL chat. I love it. I love it. There's
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: been so much exciting stuff going on, and we're going
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: to get to all of it before we bring in Stucky, who,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: as I mentioned, hosts the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Go check it out. To me, the Big Bets on
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Campus Podcast. No disrespect to any podcasts, including ours. I
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: think it's probably the best representative of the confluence of
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  Speaker 1: what I love about action. It's personality, it's connected to
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  Speaker 1: the audience, it's research based, it's professional betting feel, it's glorious.
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  Speaker 1: I freaking love it. Before we get to stuck you,
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  Speaker 1: use it all the time. And if you're looking to
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  Speaker 1: even a concert, game Time has amazing last minute deals
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  Speaker 1: on tickets to all of these. I'm opening the game
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  Speaker 1: Time app right now from my house here in Connecticut,
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  Speaker 1: I'm in the app, I'm checking out events. I'm looking
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  Speaker 1: at New York City York Rangers. Everyone thinks the Rangers
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  Speaker 1: got a shot to win the Stanley Cup. I can
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  Speaker 1: get in tonight less than one hundred and fifty bucks
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• 6:33
  Speaker 1: the og stucky. Let's going on, guys, Yeah, chat, It's
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: amazing how far we've come as a company when we've
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: When I first was brought on, we were Sports Action
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: webisode of Sports Action dot Io and Mead reached out
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: to me. It was like, we need we're you know,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: we have this app and we're want to start a
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: company to eat someone with you content. Originally, for the
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: first three months back in twenty I was the only
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: I was the entire content team. I was. I was
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: the writer and the editor editing the editing team. So
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: I would write so I think like Daniel Scottie who
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: now does other stuff for us. And then I got Colin.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Eventually I just write a couple articles. But I was
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: writing like NFL college basketball, tennis, and then I would
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: edit it myself and then put it out on this
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: like Jankie h Sports Action dot Io website, and uh,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: look how far we've come now, it's pretty well. Those
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: were the freaking days. Um. It was so early that
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: you had a private Twitter account and I had to
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: ask you to approve me so I could follow you. Yeah. Yeah,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: I mean I was working in in corporate America and
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: finance for a huge company that was pretty conservative, and
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: like I couldn't have them know well, I was spending
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: most of my time doing and it was funny that
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: at the that fall my boss, you know, and I
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: was kind of plateaued. I was a senior analyst, and
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: I was fine with where I was. I was spending
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: most of my time betting, and I didn't want to
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: badage people or anything, so but I was spending so
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: much time trying to put out content. We had told
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: started a podcast that my work was slacking. I had.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: I had plans to leave on the first of the year.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: But my boss, who was like some kid out of
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: like an NBA rotational program. He and I was still
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: getting everything I had done, but I just wasn't showing
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: up any meetings or anything. It couldn't show up in
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: any today. I would just go in the middle of
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: the night and do everything I had to do. And
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: he pulls me into his office. He's like, we had
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: to have a talk and you come into meet and
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: I was like, I know what he's so I just
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: stopped him before we started. It's like I'm gonna leave now.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: And then he's like I'm I was like, I'm leaving now.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: So I figured, like, you take two weeks. I was
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: like the only one in knew how to price some
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: of the rivers we were doing. But now that company
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: policies like you leave them like because you could take
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: didn't know if you're going to a competitor. So I
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: got like walked out and I was like, oh my god,
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: I'm really doing this. See I left left my entire career,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: had my Masters in Finance CFA, and you know, sometimes
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: you got to take big risks, and that was my
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: ultimate gamble, and fortunately it paid off, and here we
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: are today, worked out for all of us, and now
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: we get to talk about betting and March Madness. You.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Mike Calabreeze was going to be on the show on Thursday.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Anthony Debundo Maria Marino had an amazing show on Sunday
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: night after the brackets were revealed, Road to the Final Score.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Everyone can go check it out on YouTube. I felt
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: fully prepped after watching that show about Who was Underseated Night?
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Nick Giffin was on that show too, Who the Cinderellas Are?
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: I unloaded about ten to fifteen bets after that show.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: So before we get to it, let's just talk about
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Thursday for a second, because people are going to be
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: listening to this show over the next forty eight hours
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: as you look at the Thursday matchups. We're gonna talk
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: about Cinderella's, we're gonna talk about Final four, we're gonna
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: talk about dark Horses and all that. But Thursday's games,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: So we're looking at the brackets. Starts at the West Virginia,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Maryland at twelve fifteen on Thursday. The last game of
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: the day is UCLA, UNC Asheville. Who were your picks
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: for that day? Who are your best bets for Thursday?
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: I don't want to make people wait. Yeah, well, it
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: started off the first games of twelve fifteen Eastern on
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: CBS between West Virginia and Maryland. Fun regional matchup. I
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: did play some under first half under sixty five. You
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: go back in the past, over the past twenty five years,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: first half unders of seventy or lower have hit at
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: sixty six percent for these noon tips and in the
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: NCAA tournament, And it makes some sense like there's some jitters,
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  Speaker 1: especially if like this first game, and I think that
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: that's the case for a lot of the games on
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: the first two days. As these teams come out and
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: your nerve, there's a lot of nervous energy. You kind
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: of feel each other out, and there's new rims so
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: and Marian plays really slow. I like the matchup for
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: both defenses. Marion doesn't really turn it over, which is
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: where West Virginia really thrives, and they can compete on
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: the glass against West Virginia. So I like both matchups
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: for the defenses. And I think that each team will
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: come out a little jittery and this will play a
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: little slower, So historically that's been a very good bet.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Twelve forty. I do like Ferment against Virginia gives me
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: similar vibes to Ohio as in another thirteen four match
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  Speaker 1: of two years ago, who I loved against Virginia. It's
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: probably my favorite bet over the past couple of years
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: in the tournament and ended up out right. That game
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: is five and a half. By the way, Furman is
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: plus five and a half. Do you when you say
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: you like Furman, are you saying you like Furman outright? Yeah?
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  Speaker 1: I mean in my bracket, I'll probably pick them. I
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: think it'll it's a game that'll come down to the wire.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Furman has a an excellent offense. They play. You know,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: they've led by two fifth year seniors in Mikey Bothwell
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: and Jaalen Slawson, and they play a five out offense,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: so they're playing at all times pretty much with five
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: guys who can shoot, and you know they're not going
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: to try and go into the post, which is good
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: against Virginia. Virginia plays a pack line defense. You need
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: to shoot over the top of them, and I'm just
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: really down on the acc in general, and Virginia recently
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: lost one of its shooters in Ben vander Blass, who
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: I think they miss offensively. Their ceiling is just really
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: limited and they play really really slow, so it's hard
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: for them to blow out teams. There's just gonna be
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: a limited number of possessions in this game, which favors
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: the underdog. And that's kind of the theme, you know,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: and Furman takes a ton of threes. They can make them,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: they're experienced, and this game will have a limited number
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: of possessions. And that's kind of the formula with you know,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: a good formula to look for if you're trying to
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: pick either underdogs in your bracket or upsets, I should say,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: or betting some underdogs of these twelve thirteen, fourteen, fifteen seeds,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: is you want to increase the variance of the game,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: especially if you're looking the pulling out right upset, so
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: slower paced games. Teams that don't turn it over and
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: that can shoot that shoot a lot of threes and
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: can make a lot of threes, right, that's going to
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: increase the variants. Fewer possessions and then you know, teams
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: that can make a lot of threes and don't turn
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: the ball over that are just going to give away
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: possessions and let you know, most likely superior athletic teams
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: get out and transition and get easy buckets and put
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: big runs on them. That's the case here with Furman,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: who can definitely shoot others. There's gonna be three point variants,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: but they're missing all the threes. They'll you know, they're
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: gonna lose and they probably wouldn't cover. But I think
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be very comfortable in this matchup. I like
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: them an interesting Yeah, sure, hold on, because I do
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: feel like these first five six games on the board,
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: from what I saw of your show, you guys all
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: had almost consensus like your Cinderella parts were fermin Utash State,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: which wasn't really a Cinderella, but compared to the SEC,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: which is Missouri's coming out of that, you loved Utah State. Simon.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Every time I say a name, you oral Roberts against Duke,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Louisiana against Tennessee. Simon, every time I say a name,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: you're shaking your head. Just if we've seen now basketball
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: college battle has changed so much with these last couple
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: of years, I mean, especially the last ten years where
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: you're looking at these twelve and five seeds, he's thirteen
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: and four seeds. I mean he spreads only five and
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: a half stuck six? Is are we better off? I
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: know I haven't put all the stat about if you
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: just take the money line of these five I mean,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: of these thirteen and twelve seeds, you're better off than
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: just taking the spread, like it's more profitable over time.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Are you looking the same thing this year where because
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: these aren't spreads of eight or nine anymore, they're down
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: to five five and a half? Are we better off?
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Like say I want to fade sant Ago State University?
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Should I just take Charleston and just take the money line?
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: Or or are you still taking spread in a lot
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: of these games? Yeah, I'm still taking the spread, but
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: it's always I think prudent to sprinkle a little bit
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: on the money line as well. Over the past ten years,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: eleven seeds actually have a winning record overall against six seeds.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: I think they went three and one last year. Well, yeah,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: you mentioned some of these shorter spreads. It's you know,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: I'll bet the tournament til the day I die. It's
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: like a betting dances. This is the first college best
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: was the first sport I felt in love. Was first
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: sport I sort of betting in high school back in
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: you know, the early two thousands. I've built a following
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: on like the betting forms. Ah I was betting was
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: college basketball, And I can think back to like two
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: thousand and seven, two thousand and eight, and then even
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: you know, eight to ten years ago. The especially the
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: opening lines, but in general, the market was so inefficient,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: and these openers on Sunday night after the bracket came out,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: they would move so much. You would have these underdogs
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: that open way too high, and then they would just
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: get humbled and they would still probably open all the
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: tid Now and markets are getting more efficient with each
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: passing day. You have, you know a lot of analytical
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: sites out there. Just betting market in general is more intelligent.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: So the market is just so much more efficient. You
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: see these underdogs open a lot shorter than they used to,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: and you don't see as much moving in the market
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: from the opening spreads to you know, throughout the week
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: up until tip. And that's because the market is much
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: more efficient and much more keen to some of these
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: potential underdogs from mid major conferences. So yeah, it's it's
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: a wise observation on how much more efficient the market
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: has gotten and it's definitely not as easy to beat
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: as it used to be. Now do you see it?
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, you see like a George Mason type or
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: a Butler type. That could be some underdog that make
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: some crazy run about. You know, some team that has
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: four seniors that no one's talking about that are eleven
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: seed or a ten seed that can make a run.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: That's that's my fair thing of college basketball. You get
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: these guys who they stay together for all these years
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: and eventually they clicks. I mean that which are Tall
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: State run? I remember they had all these crazy good
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: seniors and they made it tel Final four. Are there
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: any teams that pop out to you like that run
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: into this year stuck? Yeah? I mean, you just saw
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: a team in Penn State make a run. They're a
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: ten seed, you know they're they just made a run
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: as a ten seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Oddly enough,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: they are the most experienced as far as just do
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: you want to experience the most experienced team in the country.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: They can shoot, They attempt threes at a top ten rate.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: They make threes at a top ten rate. They don't
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: turn it over, they don't foul, and it's just a
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: super experienced team with a great garden jay and picket
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: and they're kind of peeking at the right time. They
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: also have an excellent coach, one of the best schemers
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: and all of college basketball. That's really important something I value,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: especially on these quick turnarounds. So the second days of
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: the weekend, so your second round and then in the
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Elite eight. By the way, we'll be in Hoboken a
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: Mad Hatter for our watch party. To make sure check
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: that out attrawk dot com and RCP if you haven't.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: But that's that's really important. That's where coaching can really
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: have an edge is when you have those quick turnarounds,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: you have to prep for a team that you're not
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: familiar with on a day or two. So Penn State,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: I think they match up well tex SA and M
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: because look, Texas A and M thrived during SEC play.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: They give up a ton of three. Is one of
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: the highest three point attempt rates allowed in the country.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: They go under screens that really aggressive. That works in
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: the SEC. Nobody can shoot in the SEC. Was the
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: worst three point shooting conference in the country, and there's
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: some bad conferences out there. But now they're gonna go
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: up again. The team that can really shoot Texas and
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: M also thris in the offensive glass, getting to the
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: line and turning teams over. Penn State doesn't foul, is
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: great on the defensive glass, and they don't turn it over.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: So it's a team with good guards and shooting in
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: a great coach, and it's very experienced. They're a team that, look,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: they get by Texas, A and M, it's gonna be
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: a tough game, but I like the match up face
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: Texas in the second round. It's certainly a winnable game
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: if those threes are falling. So that's a team that,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: you know, it's a power conference team, but it's a
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: ten seed that I think to make a run. As
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: far as a shocker shock, I mean, look, two years
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: ago we had a fifteen seed in Oral Roberts make
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: the Sweet Sixteen's only second second fifteen seed ever to
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: make the Sweet sixteen. Last year, Saint Peter's Trump Them
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: became the thirteen to make the Sweet six team and
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: the first fifteen seed to make the Lead eight. Can
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: I predict a fifteen you know, if you could predict
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: that you should be playing powerball, I don't know. I
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: mean I don't say it, but whoever does You never
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: really see it with a fifteen seed, I mean maybe
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: a team like Vermont Vermont profiles. You know that in
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: the East regional there's a lot of teams that are
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: that I think are overseeded, and there's a lot of
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: teams in the West that are underseated. I mean in
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: the West there's the top five teams are all on
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: the top eleven on Ken Palm. That's crazy. And then
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: if you have TCUs number six dealt with injuries all
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: year at full strength, there are arguably a top ten team.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: So you can make a case you have six top
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: fifteen teams in the West, which is crazy. And then
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: in the East, you know produce of vulnerable one. Tennessee
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: is a vulnerable four. They lost one of their best
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: guards for the season. You know, you have a three
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: seed in Kansas State, who I have is like power
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: rated as like number twenty eight in the country, so
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: they should be like a six seed, you know. And
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: then Marquette maybe a run last weekend, very good team,
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: but they probably would have been a three if they
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: didn't win the Big East last week, So it's a
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: lot of overseated teams. Vermont profiles as a underdog that
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: can pull off an upset because they play slow, they
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: have tons of ball handlers and shooters so they don't
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: turn it over, and they're very well coached. So that's
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: a very dangerous team if the threes are falling. And
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: Shaka Smart, you know, take it back to the NFL
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: reminds me a lot of Mike Tomlin. He is a
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: uber motivator. Let the greatest of all time, look at
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: your word, so you know, his team's in the underdog role.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: Only Tim Floyd over the past thirty years, is better
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: against the spread be than Shaka Smart is an underdog,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: He's unbelievable. When his teams are in the underdog role,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: it's us against the world. They come out and they
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: just thrive and they play with so much more energy,
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: and that's you know, they kind of play above their
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: talent level. But when they're a favorite, they don't really
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: bring in as much. And over the past thirty years,
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Shaka Smutch the fourth least profitable coach as a double
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: digit favorite. He's forty and sixty three against the spread.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: That's among eight hundred and fifty coaches. So the Marquette
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: has struggled in this role before. I don't know if
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: ver Mind is enough talent to get it done. But
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: they can shoot, they don't turn it over, they're not
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: going to beat themselves, and they're well coached. So if
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: I had to pick one, I would go with for
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: a Mond, A lot of people are gonna say Coolgate,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: but Colgate plays no defense. They're gonna be at such
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: an athletic disadvantage against a team like Texas. So yeah,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: but those if you can predict the fifteen seat that's
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: gonna make a run, you're probably gonna win your bracket.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Ra Ra Shaka, Yeah, Hey column, Ra Ra Shaka. I
• 22:10
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• 24:20
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. We didn't finish your favorite bets for Thursday.
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: Simon immediately jumped into Cinderella's I know, we wanted to
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: talk about it's not a like I said, it's not
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: a it's not a Cinderella. But Utah State, Missouri. That
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: was one that immediately came up on Sunday night. The
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: line is bounced around. Utah State was a two and
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: a half. Now it's down to one and a half,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: so it's moved in Missouri's direction. Actually one point favorite
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: at one point, so yeah, that line is moving over them.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: It's a very It's a game that is the prototypical
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: analytics versus athletes games. So Utah State profiles very well analytically.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: They're like a top twenty team. Missouri does not. Analytics
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: hate this Missouri team, but they have really good athletes
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: and they're gonna have a big athletic of them's against
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: Utah State. And the other thing working in Missouri's favor
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: is the Mountain West has been absolutely horrifying in the
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: term to ever won of games since twenty eighteen. I
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: think they're o and nine against the spread in their
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: past nine tournament games, and over their past fifty, I
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: think they're fourteen thirty five and one. So it has
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: not been smart to back the Mountain West. I'm gonna
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: go against the Grain here and I did play Utah State.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: I like the matchup for them. These are two teams
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: that are super three point relying. There's gonna be a
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: ton of threes in this game, a ton of points.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: But Utah State does a better job of defending the three.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: And again, like I said, Missouri gets up a ton
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: of threes, and like I said before the SEC, that's
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: okay because no one can shoot in the SEC. Utah
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: State one of the best three point shooty teams in
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: the country. Missouri also will throw out a bunch of zone,
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: they'll press you a bunch, so they mix up your defenses.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: But Utah State raids out elite against the zone and
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: against the press, so I like them here. Well, I
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: keep in mind the totals one fifty five. I would
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: look at the overto I think both teams are going
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: to score. It will keep it. Keep this in mind
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: when you're betting the tournament. These games with higher totals,
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: with you know, implied offense all over the place, you
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: can live bet too, so you don't have to bet
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: ahead of time. And you know, I think there's gonna
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: be a lot of swings in this game. So you know,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: I bet Utah State, and I'm going to look to
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: bet Utah State some more. If Missouri goes on a run,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: I expect this. The game maybe back and forth, but
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: I have a ton of respect for both coaches. But
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: I just think the Utah State offense will get better
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: looks from three and they can make them. But but
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: we had an athletic this event, and so it's definitely
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: an intriguing matchup. All Right, I want you to because
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: there's other stuff I want to get to. Just give
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: me a name of your favorite bets. I don't need
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: an explanation, just the name of your favorite bet for
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Thursday that we haven't discussed so far, we've gotten West
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Virginia conversation Furman Uva Utah, Stay Missouri. Over the remaining games.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: What are your favorite bets? Because I do have to
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: ask you about a specific game. So just give me
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: the team of your favorite bet. Oral Roberts is the
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: one that we didn't mention. I would look to see
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: if you can get a seven. It's down to six
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: and a half. Now you might get some late Duke money,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I make that game three and a half,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: and I Duke has improved significantly, a lot of talent,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: but I think a lot of it's smoke in mirrors.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: They run through the acc which is so down. You know,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: you play on Miami team who lost one of their
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: best players in the first minute, a Virginia team that
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: lost one of their key players recently. So, yeah, Duke,
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: after winning the conference tournament, everyone saw this run. It's Duke.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: I think they're a little overvalued here. And well Roberts
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: is great. I mean, the going seventeen to run and
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: they have Max Asmith, one of the best guards in
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: the country. They've done this before. Their defense even better
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: than the team that made a run. Or Roberts is scary.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: If Duke wins that came, they can make a deep,
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: deep run and they're the rightful favor. But Ora Roberts
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: can put a scare in them if faces is going
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: off and Duke struggles defending the pick and roll, and
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: that's what Ora Roberts is going to do all game.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: That is one of the games I'm looking forward to
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: the most of the entire first round. Well, that's the game, Salmon.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: I want you to ask about Duke because I know
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: how much you love the Dukies. Yeah, I love. I mean,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: it's it's lazy, cap, you know, I'll admit to that.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: But it's the rule of thumb I live by, which
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: is you bet a team that wears blue to win
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: the national championship. It sounds lame, but it's been good
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: to me, and last year I had Kansas that hit
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: from me. I think I gave him out eleven to
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: one or ten to one. This year, it feels like
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Duke's that team of like you just talked about, if
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: they can get through this first round, it seems set
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: up really nice for them, and you know, they're in
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: a conference where, like you talked about, there's some conference
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: that are overloaded with weird seating or Duke doesn't really
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: have that. I kind of kind of can see their
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: clear path to that final four. My only hesitation is
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: I don't want to put it on but the head coach, right,
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: coach k had been there so many times before. That
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: is such a huge deal. I mean, even we can
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: say we want about Syracuse when they were in the tournament,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: they were just different, right because it felt like because
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: the coach had been there before and everything gets a
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: little tighter in the tournament. Do you think it's going
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: to play out bad for Duke because of the head
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: coach stuck or do you think that doesn't matter for them,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: that it really is about the players? But am I
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: were thinking this too much that I'm a little worried
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: about that coach even though I'm with Chad, I bet
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: Duke to win it all. My only hesitation is the
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: head coach. Yeah, I mean, there's the head coach mounters,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: like I said, on those quick turnarounds, especially when you
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: have to prep quick. But I've been pretty impressed with Shire.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: Duke does have some maybe similar vibes to North Carolina
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: last year struggled a bit during the season, you know,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: turned it on late with a first year head coach.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: Talented team, and they get in and you know, and
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: they knocked off Carolina a few times, just like Carolina
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: knocked them off. And they get in and they make
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: a deep run, and you're right that they They're in
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: that East regional as the five seed, and I think
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: that the you know, there's a bunch of teams that
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: are overseated in that region. I'm hoping, just from a
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: selfish perspective here in lex than we get a Duke
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Duke Kentucky a leading which would be awesome. But yeah,
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, Sarah, there's a quick plug and a couple
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: of things all about I have. I have a piece
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: that's out that'll be out today ranking the the chances
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: of the thirteen through fifteen seeds, and they're best, the
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: best chance of pulling off an upset. And it's not
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: just spread based, but that would be easy to do
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: you just look at the spreads. It's more which games
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: have the highest variants and like so like which games
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: are gonna be slow? Are there gonna be a lot
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: of threes? Like which the team's profile as an underdog
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: that could pull off a stunner And then so make
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: sure you check out I think a lot of the
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: teams on Friday, and then you know, you guys, gonna
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: be another episode. Mike Calvary's some of the you know, UCSB,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: Montana State, Vermont, those are the teams that profile is
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: you know, your thirteen fourteen, fifteen seats that could potentially
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: off an upset. But you mentioned, yeah, the coaching with Syracuse.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: A lot of why they were always so successful in
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: a tournament format as they played a zone defense, and
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: not a lot of teams play his own or see
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: a zone and they get out of conference and you're
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: playing a team in a scheme that's unfamiliar to you,
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: and you don't have that much time to prepare for it.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: You don't even know your opponent. A lot of times,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: you know, especially in the second day of the weekend
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: and all of another piece outgoing through who are his
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: own teams to press teams and looking for those outliers
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: of different unique styles and schemes. But yeah, I mean
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: the experience of Shire on those quick turnarounds. It could
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: prove to be Duke's fatal flaw. But I've been pretty
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: impressed with what he's done this year, and I think
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: that he was doing a lot towards the end of
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Coach K's tenure. You don't have that steadying force there.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: But Duke, if they can get buy all Roberts so
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: thinks could be a really good game. Yeah, they certainly
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: can make a run. They're in the right bracket to
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: do so. The East is wide open, a lot of
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: overseated teams as opposed to the West, where everybody is underseated.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: Breaking news, Um, the Bears have resigned long snapper Patrick Scales.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: Surprise those I'm surprised. I'm surprise those odds aren't already
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: dropping by the way, stuck. Surprise you guys didn't sign
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: another linebacker. They listen, the monsters are back. That's all
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: I gotta say. Yeah, earlier in the show, you started
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: talking about our March Madness watch party, which anyone can
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: go to for free. It's a Mad Hatter in Hoboken,
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, on March twenty fifth at six pm. I'm
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: gonna be there. You're gonna be there. Rayburn's gonna be there,
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Maria Marino's gonna be there. Matt Mitchell's gonna be there. Michell. Yeah.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: Three quarters seventy five of the wolf Pack. That's this
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: group right here there, and so I'm super excited about that.
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: If I were you, you want to, we want you
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: to RSVP. Just go type in Action Network and Mad
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: with two d's Hatter m A D D Hatter into
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: Google and you're gonna get the link to go RSVP.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: Go RSVP, hang out with us. There's a ton of
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: sports that night. True story three years ago this week.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: Basically we had a deposit at Mad Hatter for a
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: watch party for March Madness. Obviously we're delayed three years,
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: but we're glad to be going back there to do it.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: Um So I've been there. Report's a really good spot
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: for to watch the tournament. It's a stock. Last time
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: you and I watched a big event in New Jersey
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: was the Super Bowl when ut yeah, Patrick, Patrick Mahomes
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: dropped back eighteen times to lose twenty seven yards and
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: go under his rushing total. Thank God for all of us.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: All Right, we've talked about some picks. We've talked about
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: Duke specifically. We've given a little bit of conversation around
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: dark Horse in Vermont. Here's what I want to know.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: Tell me about your final four. Well, we will have
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: a I feel like this is a show of plugs,
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: but we have such so much contact. I'm like, we
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: have a bracket reveal show, right, are we going to
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: reveal our brackets? I think tomorrow. I think tomorrow, me, you,
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: Raybon and Maria Marino have a little bit of a
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: bracket reveal show. But I'm okay with you telling people
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: right now. So yeah, but I'm just all I'm gonna
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: say is on that show. Make sure we'll tweet it
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: out and stuff. Will be my final final, final four,
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: so like I'm still working through the games and so
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: this is subject to change, but I'll be locking in
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: my final four. Then I only enter like big pools,
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: And it's important to keep in mind, by the way,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: like if you enter like a really big pool, you
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: want to take some shots and you want to be risking,
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: then take a look at like, you know, well, we'll
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: have percentages on the brackets and you can find them
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: out there, and you know, every if everyone has this
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: one team winning, it are gone to the final four, Like,
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: don't pick them. If you want to win a big pool,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have to stand out. So I do take
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: a little riskier route up. So we'll start in. They
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: eat in the West, which is loaded, and I think
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: it's a good bracket to take a chance on with
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: you know, arguably six top fifteen teams because there could
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: just be carnage all over and even Kansas, Arkansas's three
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: potential first round draft picks, Illinois super talented. They could lose.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: I could. I think they're Them and Perdue are very
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: vulnerable in the second round. They're the ones season could
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: go down in the second round. So that's wide open.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: And my preseason, my only preseason future was TCU. I'm
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: gonna I love the matchup for TCU against Gonzaga because
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: TCU was great when they run, and then UCLA is
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: dealing with some injuries, so I'm going TCU out of
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: the West. I'm gonna be stubborn. They have you know,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: they can defend very experienced, good coach NBA guards like
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: guards play in March, and TCU is one of the
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: best in Mike Miles going to the Midwest, I think
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: the Midwest is gonna play out fairly, Chalky. That's where
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: I'm taking Houston to get through. I think that they
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: have a potential injury to Marcus Saster. I think it's
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: gonna be fine. He hurt his groin. But I don't
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: see anyone that's gonna take them. I mean maybe Indiana,
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: but Indiana has a brutal, brutal pod. I mean Kent
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: State in the first round could beat them, Drake could
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: beat them in the second round, or Miami if they're healthy.
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: So I think we're gonna get like Texas Houston to
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: be a fun lead eight. I'm gonna take Houston there
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: to get to the final four. I'm going back and forth.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: I might end up taking Texas, but for now we'll
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: go Houston. TCU gotta get stop with these Texas teams.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: And then in the South, I think the South will
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: also play out fairly. Chalky. Can't see anyone given Alabama game,
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: maybe San Diego State in the Sweet sixteen, if they
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: can just slow that game to a halt and get
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Alabama uncomfortable. But I think Alabama has too much talent.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: They're gonna get to the lead eight and and it's
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: you know, Arizona Creighton. I think Baylor has too many
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: defensive issues. So I think it's gonna be chalky there
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: in the South too, with a one or two seat,
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Alabama for now. Kurk Creasa, Arizona's guard
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: very erratic. He's dealing with injury, but there's shoulder. It's
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: really detrimental to his shooting right now. So let's go Arizona.
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, Alabama Houston TCU. So we got a one
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: to one to six seat. And in the East, that's
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: the other region where I think it's gonna be Carnage
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: take a shot. All these teams that are overseated Perdue
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: could easily lose in the second round to Memphis or FAU.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know who's gonna win that game though, but
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: if Memphis does, I think they can go to the
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: Final four. So yeah, why not go out on a limb.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be maybe Marquette Memphis, but Marquette
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: is a tough first round. So let's go Memphis in
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: the final four. Memphis, Alabama, TCU, and Houston. You got
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: a one, A one, a six, and an eight. You
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: know why I'm excited about this. I know significantly less
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: about college basketball than you do. And I was doing
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: my brackets. As I said, we're gonna do a bracket reveal,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: show me you Maria and Raybone tomorrow. It's Wednesday. Mariah
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: and I were reviewing our brackets last night, and we
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: ended up in a relatively similar place with the one
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: seeds you suggested and some wild cards coming out of
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: the West and the East. So I'm excited for us
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: to continue talking about that because that's it feels like
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: we're inning up in the same place. Yeah, but if
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: you're just I will say, if you're in a smaller pool,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: like this is my final four, and I'm in like
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: really really big pools which are hard to win, but
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: you're in a smaller pool, an office pool, you probably
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: don't want to take Memphis to go to the final four.
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: There are two point favorite in the first round, so like,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: the FA is a really good team to Shane, they
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: got massed up the good But if Memphis goes down
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: on the first day and you're like a smaller pool,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: You're you're done, and you don't want that to happen
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: if you're in a smaller pool. But if you're in
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: a really big pool and you're trying to win it,
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: you gotta take some shots and take some chances, and
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: you know, so maybe that's when you do have a
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: Memphis getting to the final four. That's when you take
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: a TCU. Also, a lot of people I think are
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: gonna go chalky in those two top regions. So if
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: you're trying to win a bigger pool, maybe you do
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: have Alabama going down to San Diego State and your
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: root for that. If Alabama goes down along the way,
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: then you're sitting pretty in your bracket. So there's a
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: lot of game theory. And then depending on the size
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: of your pool, especially bigger pools, you want to be
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: a lot riskier and take some chances. But yeah, and
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: Memphis certainly is because they're playing basically a coin foot
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: game in the first round and you're gonna have a
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: lot of trouble winning your bracket. If your final four
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: teams album one of the first two days. Simon, do
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: you have a final four set. No, I was gonna,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: I was gonna listen to these guys before I do anything,
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: because I just I know, I don't know anything, Like
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: I'm just very it's how you win it. That's the
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: people that win it. We don't know anything. It's true.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: So it's true. But like last year, you know, you
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: guys really helped me big time. So that's why I'm
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: just gonna be patient and try to hear everyone's opinions
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: before I make anything done, because I I kind of
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: do what stuck you talking about where I'll do one
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: of my brackets just not thinking just do it in
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: a smaller group. But with these my bigger money ones,
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: I try to take it more serious. So I try
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: to get all the info before I do anything. I
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: but speaking of brackets, I used to Now I only
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: do one bracket, like that's what I've done. Now, if
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: I enter a smaller pool, maybe I'll do something different.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: But I used to, like going back fifteen plus years,
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: cha when you were at ESPN the ESPN Tournament Challenge
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: where if you won the bracket, and in two thousand
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: and four, I was in first place and I had
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: of like, I don't know, there was hundreds of thousands
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: of people in that I was in first place in
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: the Elite eight going into the Elite eight, and I
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: had Arizona beating Illinois, and they were up by like
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: twenty with eight to go, and I had Arizona winning
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: at all. So leem staldemyer that team and Illinois had
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: one of the Luther head and that John Willing, that
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: they had one of the craziest comebacks that I'll never forget, yes,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: and that that cost me potential of winning it. I
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: don't know how it would have played out. I was
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: going through all the hundreds of people in the leaderboards
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: that are like but I used to fill out for that.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: You could fill out up to ten brackets, so and
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: then you had to put in like your information to win.
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: I used to put in my my information, my mom's,
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: my dad's, my brothers, my sisters, and I would have
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: fifty brackets in that ESPN challenge and then I would
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: print them all out and then have them all and
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: spread out in front of me all weekend. But now
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: now I'm a one bracket guy. But that was I'll
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: never forget that game. Almost almost it was nineteen almost twenty,
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: about twenty years ago when Illinois. Do you haven't watch
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: that game, go just YouTube it and watch the final
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: ten minutes. It was horrendous, a horrendous meltdown by Arizona,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: great comeback by Illinois. It's a It's a fucking insane game.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: I remember exact you where I was when I was
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: watching it. And because I'm from Chicago and always liked
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Illinois basketball going back to the early eighties. Because remember,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: I'm older than all of you, that comeback was insane Adams,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: but three, he's got a hurry, finally forced to shoot
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: over time, truly truly insane, stuck. Before we let you go,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: I've got your final four picks. From those final four,
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: can you give me a national champion? Well, I should
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: be stubborn and say TCU, but they lost. They lost.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: Eddie Lampkin is really important to them. He left the
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: team recently. Um So I'm gonna go with as of now,
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: the safest pick I think, which is Houston. I think
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: that they're the given their region and their experience coaching.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: I think that they are pretty upset proof. Now They're
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: gonna lose to the eight seen in the second round,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: but I think that they have a really easy path
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: of the lead eight, and I trust their defense and experience.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go narrative Houston. What
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: I can hear Jim Nance now saying what he said, Houston,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: you have a champion or something or Houston US you
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: don't have any problems. Yeah, something like that. Houston, there
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: are no problems tonight. There's something that is narrative. By
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: the way, because this is Jim Nance's last Final four,
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: right and Jim Nance famously went to the University of Houston. Yeah,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: time to do something for the fixed season. There are produced, Yes,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: So I'm going full on narrative Houston in Houston with
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: a super experience scene that I think as a really
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: favorable path um. And I think Marcus Sass will be healthy.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: He's important. But thee is potentially gonna suit up on Sunday.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: They already had one seat, so they held him out
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: precautionary for Precautionariason, I think we'll play. They called Sampson's
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: one of the best coaches in the country and this
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: team is very very good. So yeah, I'll go. I'll
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: go Chalky Narrative at Houston as my national title winner
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: all right. Uh, last thing before we get out of here.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: Another breaking news, Uh, the eight Bears have signed four
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: more linebackers. The Bears resigned their top fullback, but also
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: the considerance college basketball, The AP just released it's uh
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: first team Hits All American Team. Zach Eatie from Purdue,
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Trace Jackson Davis from Indiana University. UM, let's see Jalen
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: Wilson also made the team, and let's see Marcus Sasser.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: As you just mentioned in Brandon Newer, those are the
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: five AP All Americans. We will be seeing them all
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: in the tournament. Multiple players from I got one player
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: from each of the top four seeds plus Trace Jackson Davis.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: Stucky every wait wait, wait, wait chat before we run,
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: we might not see Stuck again before this happens. Stuck
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: you what do you want, Lamar or the picks? Picks? Wow? Wow? Shocker? Yeah?
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: All right, listen, I gotta remind everybody. Also, we've been
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: talking about all this college basketball betting. The playing games
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: are tonight, It's Tuesday and tomorrow Wednesday. So if you're
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: looking to bet the first four games to start off
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: March Madness, you must, must, must check out our first
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: four betting preview episode from the Action Network podcast. It's
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: over at the Action Network podcast feed. Check it out Stucky.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: As I mentioned the Action Network og, the host of
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Big Bets on campus college basketball Expert, thanks for coming
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: on the podcast. You'll be around all week on all
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Action Network programming, whether it's written word, podcasts, video, Find
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: it all in the app, find it in the podcast places.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: You're the best man's good luck in the tournament everyone.
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: Thanks for having me, and good luck to your blue team.
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Simon and I'll see you in a book and job.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: See in Hoboken Stock for Simon Hunter for Matt Mitchell.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman. This has been the favorites from
• 46:41
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• 46:44
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