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Best 2026 Win Totals: Locks, Sleeper & Traps · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All right, tonight, it is time to stop projecting and
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: start actually betting. Right. I spent the off season going
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: conference by conference schedules, returning production, portal editions, coaching changes,
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: quarterback rere all that stuff. That work is done. Today,
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I go over my favorite win total bets, and I
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: go over the whole board. I've got six overs, five unders,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: one sleeper that I don't feel like anybody outside of
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: their own conference is talking about. And then two public
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: trap bets where it's teams where in jerseys of teams
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: you probably already love or at least respect. Now here's
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the only rule that matters before we start. We are
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: not betting who is good. We are betting a number.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Make sure that we iterate that going forward. A team
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: can go five and seven, disappoint everybody in its own
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: fan base, and still cashing over at four and a half. Right,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Another team can win eight games, finish ranked, get to
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: a nice bowl, and still lose an over eight and
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: a half ticket. We ain't great in talent. We're grading
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: a line. So go ahead, separate the four buckets in
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: your head right now, because we're gonna treat them all differently. Right,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: overs are teams that the market is underpricing. Unders teams
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: the market's overpricing, usually because a brand or logo or
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: a memory of last year. The sleeper is one team
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: that almost nobody's talking about that I think could quietly
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: outperform their number. And then the traps teams that are
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: genuinely good that you're gonna want to bet anyway, and
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: that I'm gonna try and convince you not to. So
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: four segments. Let's get to work, all right. Let's get
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: to my six favorite win total overs. And these are
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: not all the same type of bet. Two are locks,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: like my strongest positions on the board. Three are leans
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: where I trust that I trust the football, but the
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: price or the roster keeps me from going all in.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: One is a flyer where the team doesn't need to
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: be good, it just needs it just needs to be eyed.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: So let's go ahead and start this thing up, all right.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Number one, Akron, I've got them over four and a half.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Now let me explain it to you. This is a
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: lock for me. The best odds right now four and
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: a half plus one oh two. The market wants five
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: wins from Akron. My combined projection says five point eighty
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: five wins for this team. So if I put real
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: money on one over from the entire list, it's going
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: to be this one. I'm not telling you Akron is
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: going to win the MAC. I'm telling you that five
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: wins is a very reasonable ask for a program that's
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: been climbing, not rebuilding under Joe Morehead. Right, this is
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: moreheads fifth season in Akron. There's been no real coaching James.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: This offseason matters a lot for continuity bets like this one.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: The market still sees the version of Akron that was
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: basically an automatic win for everybody on the schedule. I
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: think that version's gone. Last year, the Zips walked right
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: up to the edge of all eligibility. They've got three
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: safe wins projected right now, Robert Morris at Kent State
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: at UMass. I understand at Kent State may be difficult.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: At UMSS might be different. They're both on the road,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: But you win those three. Akron only needs two more
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: from their remaining nine games. They've got Eastern Michigan, Buffalo
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Central Michigan all right there, with home dates against Ohio
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: and Western Michigan in November, and who knows what to
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: expect from the back Offensively, This team has six starters back,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: three offensive linemen. They got the running back Jordan Gant,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: the receiver Marcel Williams sixty four of the snaps. It's
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: not a continuity bet, or it is a continuity bet.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: It's not a portal bet. Right like Morehead is not
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: starting this thing over. I understand that they have got
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: three losses built into that schedule, Wake Forest, Minnesota, and UNLV.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: They're probably gonna lose all of them. That did. For
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: whatever reason, I have Akron favored over you and ILB.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I think I just did the graphic wrong. Either way.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Either way, it doesn't matter. We're not asking Akron to
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: beat any of those teams. You look at Phil steele
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six schedule Strink model has got Akron at
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: one hundred and third out of one hundred and thirty
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: eight nationally. It's bottom third of the country. It's not
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: a knock, it's it's the case here. This is one
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: of the softer overall draws in the sport, on top
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: of a program that's already turning up. I think Vegas
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: is still pricing old Akron my numbers see a team
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: that is closer to six wins than four. So I'm
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: gonna go with this. Give me Akron over four and
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: a half at plus one oh two number two Washington State.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: I am going over four and a half wins best
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: odds right now. So when I did the graphic, it
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: was minus one sixty six the best odds right now
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: or minus one sixty now before we fully get into it.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Coaching James here right, Jimmy Rodgers left pullman for Iowa
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: State right after last season. Kirby Moore comes in. This
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: is the third head coach in three years. He was
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: previously Missouri's offensive coordinator. He is the new head coach.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: And then Trent Bray, the former Oregon State head coach.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: He's gonna be running the defense. Keep that in mind
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: as you bet this. This ain't the same staff that
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: built last year's number. My combined projection on this team
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: is six point five to one wins. The market won't
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: six in this case. The one that we're betting it
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: only wants five. This is my second lock here. So
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: one thing that you do need to make sure and
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: pay attention to with these PAC twelve teams is are
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: they grading it based on the first eleven games of
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: the schedule or on the twelve game schedule. For me,
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: the four and a half is based on the eleven
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: game schedule. There are some five and a half's out there,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: and that's based on the twelve game So the four
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: and a half works for me. All right. Washington State
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: opens at Washington at Kansas State. Probably gonna go oh
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: one two, and you're gonna hear people call the ticket
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: dead by mid September. Probably ignore them. This is a
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: season total bet. It's not a September record bet. The
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: three safest projected wins to Caine, Colorado State, and Oregon State.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: But there's a lot of toss ups here. You add
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: home games against Arizona, Fresno State, and Boise State and Pullman.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Cougars aren't being forced to travel the whole league to
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: find their number. The way that the schedule sets up,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: I think they can get to five wins. Like at
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: five starters return, you got fifty four percent of the
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: snaps back on offense. This one leans more on the
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: transfer portal than Akron does, but I trust their quarterback
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Cayden Pinnock is like the ceiling right, real production, real mobility,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: a legit shot at creating explosive plays in a rebuilt
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: PAC twelve and now playing for a new staff that
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: inherited him rather than recruited him. I guess you could say, well,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: that's not really accurate, because Kirby Moore is the one
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: that really got this thing done. Steele's schedule strength model
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: puts Washington State at seventy second nationally. That's comfortably middle
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: of the pack. It's not the top heavy pack twelve
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: chaos gauntlet that a narrative might suggest the market priced
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: the collapse of the old Washington State brand. It didn't
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: fully price send this new quarterback the home slate or
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: how many toss ups this roster can win, because there's
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: a lot, I mean, just a ton of toss up
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: games that I think they can hang in. So I'm
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Washington State over four and a half.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: And I know it's juiced a little bit minus one sixty.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Still feel good about that. Gimme Washington State. I think
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: this team could potentially get to a Bowl game. Number three,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: We're going Bowling Green over four and a half. Now,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: this one's a lean. It's the biggest raw projection gap
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: on the entire overboard. My number has six point two
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: nine wins, the market has four and a half. That's
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: a gap of one point seven to nine wins. That
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: should make this the strongest bet on the board. It's
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: not because the roster is kind of scary. Bowling Green
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: returns only two established offensive starters and about thirty seven
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: percent of their offensive steps full stop. That's ugly, it
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: makes you not want to trust it. But the total
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: is the total is only four and a half. The
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: path is sitting right in front of them. You got
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: five home games against Charlton State, Sacramento State, Ball State,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Kent State, and UMass. You beat the first two, win
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: three the last three. You're in there without needing the
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: offense to be anything more than average. The portal move
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: that matters here. Quarterback Austin Novasad from Oregon, who is
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: a high recruited arm didn't have a path to the
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: field in Eugene. He now becomes the centerpiece of Eddie
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: George's offense. And this is Eddie George's second year in
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Bowling Green. There's no coaching change to speak of. He
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: got in late last year and Bowling Green was not
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: terrible last year. Unproven over a full season, that's why
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: this is a lean and not a lock. Right, Steel
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: has uh Phil Steel has Bowling Green at one twenty
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: second nationally strength of schedule. It's one of the soft
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: schedules in the entire country. The model gap is enormous, right.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: The roster risk is what keeps the state kind of
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: in check. Don't pay attention to what is it this
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: USF number, That one's off, that one's off. But there
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: are a lot of winnable games on here. You win
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: the home game against Sacramento State, you win a home
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: game against Ball State, you beat Tarleton State, Western, Michigan State, Ledos,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: winnable U masses. I mean, this is what you're looking for.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: So I think Bowling Green is going to get over
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: four and a half wins. My number four here you
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: see f over five and a half wins. Best odds
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: right now are minus one forty. The football case here
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: is stronger than the betting price. Right. My projection is
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: six point three seven wins. That's about point eighty seven
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: above the number. That minus one forty is better than
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: what some books were showing earlier in the summer. You
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: still need this to hit north of fifty eight percent
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: of the time. Just to break even, you reduce the
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: stake or shop the price before you fire. Here three
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: safest projected wins looks like Bethune, Cookman, Georgia State, and
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: probably Iowa State. I guess that's the Yeah, that's probably
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: the safest. But you basically have a toss up in
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: every other game. You got several middle and lower tier
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Big twelve games at home. You see f returns roughly
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: seventy two percent of its offensive snaps. Strong continue even
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: though the roster is how about the rows starter count's
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: pretty thin? Right? Scott Frost's second season back in Orlando.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: The notable roster storyline is the quarterback Elonza Barnett, the third.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: He is the James Madison transfer, sat out all fifteen
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: spring practices before rejoining the team for the start of
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: fall camp. He is now the confirmed starter. He brings experience,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: he brings a legit rushing element six defensive starters return
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: with real continuity in the secondary. And y'all tell me
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: in the comments if that standoff thing was accurate or not.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he actually sat out the spring,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: but I read in a couple of different places that
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: he was going to I was not paying attention. But
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: either way, I still like the kid. Phil Steeles model
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: has UCF with the sixty ninth nationally strength to schedule right,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: kind of the true midpoint of the sport. It's not
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: a gauntlet. The over is to me the right side.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: The price is the only thing to manage here. But
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: you look at this. You got two guaranteed wins, no
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: real guaranteed losses here, and I've got ten toss ups,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: ten toss ups like I think they can get to
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: a bowl game. So two guaranteed wins you gotta get.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: You gotta win four of the next ten. You're a
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: game against pitt home against TCU at Houston, at Oklahoma
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: State home against BYU after a bye, the week after
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: BYU host Notre Dame like Baylor. You can beat Kansas.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: You can beat Arizona State, you can beat Iowa State,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: you can beat Colorado, you can beat I think they're
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: going over. So give me UCF minus one forty, all right,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: number five here the Syracuse Orange. I'm going over four
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: and a half at minus one oh five here, Syracuse
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: ain't gotta be good. It's just gotta find five wins. Right.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: My projection is four point nine to one. It's only
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: about four tenths of a win above the market. This
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: is a one unit flyer for me, not a model
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: edge play. Really, your three safest wins on here are
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire, Yukon and Boston College. Boston College and Yukon
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: both on the road. Okay, Cale's got a travel cross
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: country in week two. But if you get those three
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: at Yukon and at Boston College and against New Hampshire,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: then you only needed two more. You got Cal Virginia
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: and North Carolina all reachable in the middle of the ACC. Yes,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: you've only got two established offensive starters returning, You've got
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: about sixty percent of snaps that are returning. The roster
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: was rebuilt through the portal to raise the floor, not
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: the ceiling, and coach Fran Brown, of course, entering year three,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: he did make a pretty significant staff move. He hired
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: in Vince Carris, Toledo's defensive coordinator off one of the
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: best defenses in the country last season, to fix the
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: Syracuse defense. I trust that guy. And at quarterback you
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: got noted transfer Steve Aangeli back who was three and
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: one as a starter and just demolished Clemson last year
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: before an Achilles' injury cut a season short. You got
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Malachi Nelson, you know, and there's a backup, and Jelly's
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: the presumptive starter entering the opener. I think he's gonna
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: be awesome. This is more of a hunch, right. Steel's
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: schedule model has Syracuse at forty second nationally. I've got
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: him at fortieth nationally. Genuinely tougher than most of the
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: others on this list, which is exactly why this stays
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: more of a flyer and not a lock, because we're
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: not betting for like an eight win surprise here, like
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: we're betting that a below average ACC team can can
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: find five wins against a pretty real schedule. And you
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: start looking at this and yeah, you get Virginia and
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Louisville and North Carolina and SMU and Clemson and NC
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: State and Dada. I understand all that. Fran Brown does it.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Every year. They beat a couple of teams that they
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: shouldn't every year. I think they're gonna get there again.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: So over four and a half minus one oh five
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: for me, number six for me, this one's a lean.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go SMU to go over the eight and
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: a half best odds right now or minus one thirty five.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: It's the rare over where the quarterback and the coaching
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: staff and the schedule are all pulling in the same direction.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: My projection is eight point nine to one wins, three
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: safest wins on the schedule. You see Davis, Missouri State,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: and I'm gonna say Stanford. That's just based on and
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: maybe maybe we should probably say Boston College. That one's
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: gonna be at home. I feel good about that. So
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: but even still, you've got Stanford at the end of
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the season. Both of those games are on the road.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: I know what happened last year. But you've also got
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Syracuse at home. You've got cal I think you should
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: be able to beat Virginia at home. Bank those three
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: wins that I mentioned before, SMU needs six from the
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: remaining nine. It's difficult, but it's reasonable given the continuity here. Right,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Kevin Jennings returns to a quarterback. He's got six other
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: offensive starters back. That includes two receivers, three linemen. Exactly
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: kind of returning production that I want backing a higher
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: win total. And it's the same coach steering the ship.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: Right rhtt Lashley just signed a six year extension. It's
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: going through twenty thirty. There's zero coaching turnover to worry
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: about here Steele's model. I say zero, But so they
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: lost their offensive and defensive coordinators, but the guys that
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: they kept on staff, that they moved up to those
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: it's a lot of continuity. I'm going to assume that
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: this is Rhet Lashley's offense. I think it'll be the
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: same that it always has been. Defense. We'll see, We'll
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: see what happens there. Phil Steele has SMU at sixty
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: seventh nationally in strength of schedule. I've got him at
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: sixty fourth, middle of the pack, notably lighter than a
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: typical ACC contender. Draw you look at this, SMU does
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: not need to beat Notre Dame. It doesn't need to
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: win the conference. It needs to take care of the
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: bottom of the schedule and protect home field. So the
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: price is the only real objection at minus one thirty five.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: But I mean this is one of the easier schedules
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: in the entire ACC. They should be favored over everybody,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: but to do maybe at Louisville and at Notre Dame.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: Aside from that, they should win pretty much every other
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: game on the schedule. You lose to Florida State in
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: week one, I'm gonna start questioning things, But I feel
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: good about this team. I think they will get two,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: nine and three at least. All right, So let's recap
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: our overs. Akron in Washington State are my locks here?
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: I feel the best about those. Bowling Green, UCF and
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: SMU are the Leans series the flyer? Uh, go ahead
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: and write these down. We're gonna check receipts in November.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: I feel good about that. But now let's go ahead
• 18:10
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• 18:40
  Speaker 1: The public bets overs right overs are fun. You gotta
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: you get to root for the breakout quarterback and the
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: the undefeated stretch like nobody wants to picture their team
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: at seven and five in August. But the Sharps understand
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: that unders are where the market pads its own hold
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: because high profile teams get inflated numbers every single summer.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: The logo creates it excitement, right, last year's record creates excitement.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Excitement ain't a number under Betting takes patience. A team
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: can start four to oh and get every talking head
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: in the country calling your ticket dead, and then the
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: schedule turns, the close game stop bouncing your ways. Suddenly
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: that same team is sitting at seven wins with three
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: brutal games left. We let the season play out, right,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: So let's start this thing off. Under number one is
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Houston under eight and a half? Right, current best odds
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: are minus one forty four on this. This is the
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: biggest gap on the entire underboard. For me. My combined
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: projection for Houston is six point four to two wins.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: The market wants nine at that number. There's some places
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: that it's already moved down to seven and a half.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: I've got more than two full wins of daylight here.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: Houston is easy to love without the number in front
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: of you. I mean, they had ten wins last year.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Connor Wigman's back at quarterback. They got what sixty eight
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: percent offensive snaps returning. And I mean it's Willy Fritz
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: with his third season in Houston. He's got the program
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: turned in the right way. That's exactly what makes this dangerous.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Houston won six one score games last season. Like, that's
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: not fraud. Necessarily, quarterback playing coaching matter in close games,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: but it's an enormous regression flag. You flip two of
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: those results, ten wins becomes eight, Flip three, and all
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, it's seven wins last year. Now you
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: stack the schedule on top five conference road games that
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: include strips to Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Houston, that's
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: three of the toughest environments in the league. Even several
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: of the manageable games project as one score affairs. And
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: that means that you know, the same variance that build
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Houston out last year has to cooperate again. Phil Steele's
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six model has Houston at sixtieth nationally for
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: schedule strength. I've got him at fifty eighth. It's not brutal,
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: but it is real, and it's paired with that road slate.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: It's enough to make you not fully believe in the Cougars,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Like this isn't a bet that Houston collapses. They could
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: absolutely finish eight and four, they could be ranked in October.
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: But the ticket it's still cash because the ask at
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: this number is nine regular season wins against the schedule
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: that says otherwise you start to look at this, Yeah,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: they'll probably start three and one, lose that game at
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech, but then you gotta worry about UCF, Kansas State,
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, Utah before you're by and then once you
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: get into week ten, you got Sincy at home at Colorado,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: at West Virginia, and then home against Baylor. All of
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: these are losable games. They're all winnable. But this is
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: a tough, tough slate. So I'm gonna go under eight
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: and a half on Houston. Under number two for me
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: is the Texas Longhorns under nine and a half. Current
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: odds are minus one thirty five on that. And let
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: me be clear before I say anything else, I do
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: believe Texas can be one of the best teams in
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: the country. I believe Texas can make the playoff. I
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: believe Texas can win a playoff game, and I still
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: like the under. That's the whole point of betting the
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: number instead of the name on the jersey. You guys
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: understand this. My combined projection here is eight point seven
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: wins market needs ten. A nine to three Texas team
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: excellent by any measure, still loses, is over right. The
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: offensive continuity is pretty absurd. Roughly ninety eight percent of
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: the offensive snaps return. And when I say that, by
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: the way, that is bringing in starters from other teams
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: as well. Right, It just we're looking at experience snaps.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: You got arch Manning back, the roster is loaded with
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: future NFL players. Nobody questions the talent. But sark is
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: back for year six and Will must Champi is the
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: new defensive coordinator. He takes over for Pete Kwakowski. It's
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: the schedule that's the real story for me, not necessarily
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: the sideline, although I'm curious about the defense, Like, do
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: I trust Will must CHAMPI? Yeah? Absolutely? However, is he
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: going to be able to gel with this team right
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: off the bat? Questionable? Must shamp hadn't been in DC
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: in a little while. He was DC at Georgia, but
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: he was a co DC with Glenn Shuman that we'll see.
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: We'll see what happens. Phil Steele has Texas with the
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: single toughest schedule in all the college football. I've got
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: him with the toughest schedule in all the college football.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: I've got number one out of one hundred and thirty
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: eight six preseason ESPN Top twenty five opponents among ten
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: Power Conference games. Ohio State's on the schedule Tennessee at Tennessee.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, Oklahoma, that one's in Dallas, of course, Ole
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: miss at LSU, at A and M. To close it out,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, you got three straight true road games at
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: the back half of the year at Missouri, at LSU,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: at Texas, A and M. It's about as hard a
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: closing stretch as exists in the sport. And I mean
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: the math trap here is pretty simple. The public looks
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: at every single game individually, decides Texas is going to
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: be favored in nearly all of them, stacks that into
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: like an eleven win expectation. Probability works differently across twelve
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: games against the toughest schedule in the country. Even a
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: team with a sixty five percent win probability in most
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: of his games is likely to drop one or two
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: when you running back that many times, right, arch Maning
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: could be the best quarterback in the country, This would
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: still be the right side to me. The brand says
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: National Championship. The schedule objectively the hardest one that there
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: is in the country. Says that three losses is completely reasonable.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Three losses cash is the under for me. I'm gonna
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: take Texas under nine and a half. Number three unders
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: the Arizona Wildcats. We're going under seven and a half here.
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Best number right now is minus one twenty five on
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: this My projection is six point four to six wins.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: That's more than a full win under the market. And
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: I like some real things about this roster. Right, You've
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: got the experienced quarterback in Noah Fafida. You got a
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: defense that should sit in the top half of the
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Big twelve. Brennan, of course, entering year three. He just
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: got a contracts extension right after nine to three regular season.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: He promoted Danny Gonzalez to defensive coordinator. The problem is
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: to me, well and Phil Steele, He's got Arizona's twenty
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: twenty six schedule at fifty ninth nationally. I've got him
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: at thirty third in the shape of its kind of
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: brutal at BYU, at Washington State, home for Iowa State,
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: at Texas Tech, home for tc you home for Utah,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: at Kansas State, closing at Arizona State. You look at
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: that back half that's there is not a single breather
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: in there. And and the teams, even the teams that
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: are not in conference title contention, are dangerous here. You know.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: Do I think they're gonna beat IV of State, Yeah? Absolutely.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: Do I think they're probably gonna beat Cincinnati at home? Yeah? Probably?
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: But some of your games that should be easier to
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: win are gonna be on the road, at Washington State,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: at West Virginia. I mean, this is this is kind
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: of tough. I've only got three wins where I feel
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: like the team is going to be where they're going
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: to be favored by more than one score, where I
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: project them to win by more than one score, And
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: then of course you've got the loss at Texas Tech.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: So three and one right there. Can they get six
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: more wins? I don't feel good about it. They returned
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent of offensive snaps. That's enough to avoid
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: a collapse, not enough to override a schedule that's disloaded,
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: like you get one bad weekend here at Washington State
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: or an injury before whoever trap loss to a mac
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: tee or more than Illinois, not a MAC team, Mountain
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: West team. Right, the whole over is going to be
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: in danger at that point. Fafiita does give Arizona a
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: chance in every close game, but he can't play every
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: position on both sides of the ball. Right, This roster
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: can play quality football all season. Still land at seven
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: to five. That's still going to catch the under for me.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: Number four for me is the Kennesau State owls. I'm
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: going under six and a half wins. The best current
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: odds are minus one eight on this one. My combined
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: projection is five point eight three wins. That's about two
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: thirds of a win under the market. The real story
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: for me is not the model gap. It's the gap
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: between last year's identity in this year's roster. Kennesaw State
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: is the reigning Conference USA champion, and that memory, to
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: me is doing a lot of work in the public's
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: head right now. I don't think it should be Dowbel's return.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: Only two established offensive starters, both of them are linemen,
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: and then blending forty seven newcomers with forty seven returning players.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: That's essentially half of a new team, not even essentially,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: that's half of a new team. Coach Jerry mackis back
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: for year or two. He got his own extension after
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: the CUSA titles, So no coaching change. But there is
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: a quarterback change, right. Last year's starter, Mario Odom transferred
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: out to Syracuse this offseason. The new starter is going
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: to be Ricky Collins. The schedule doesn't do him any
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: favors either. Home dates with West Georgia and Georgia State,
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: both of those that project as wins got lost to
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: Tennessee on there, and then after that Arkansas State is
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: non conference. Then you got your conference late. That includes
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville State Liberty season ending trip to Western Kentucky, all
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: legitimately tough outs. Steele's model has Kinnessas State at one
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: hundred fourteenth nationally, which sounds soft. But a soft schedule
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: and an easy path to seven wins with the rebuilt
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: offense are two completely different things. Right, The championship banner
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: does not protect the new starters. It doesn't make Jacksonville
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: State or Western Kentucky on the road any easier In
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: kinnessas State can remain one of the better run programs
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: in the COSA and still finished six and six, which
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: is going to cash the under, and I feel good
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: about that. I don't expect this team to be nearly
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: as good as they were last year in the way
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: that the schedule sets up at Arkansas State. So say
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: you go two and one to start off with, well,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: then I think you lose at Arkansas State. That's two
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: and two home game against Jacksonville State. I still think
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: you probably lose that one at Missouri State. Maybe you
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: win Liberty. I think you lose at Middle Tennessee, who knows,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: Maybe win that one home against Delaware. I feel good
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: about stillaware team. I think you probably beat Sam Houston
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: if I use another toss up, and I think you
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: lose that Western Kentucky. I mean it. I am expecting
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: five and seven to six and six. We'll see what
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: it looks like. Number five. When I first talked about
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: IOWA earlier in the offseason, I said I was gonna
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: go over because Kirk Faren's team's always hit eight wins, right,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: That's just always that's how it goes. It's always been
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: that way. I have since changed my tune when I
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: did the conference overview, Iowa under seven and a half
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: is one of my bets, and the current best odds
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: on this are Iowa under seven and a half at
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: plus one point twenty. It has changed a little bit.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: My combined projection here is seven point ninety four wins.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: The model technically leans over. I'm gonna take the under
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: it plus money. I see the coaching floor, I see
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: the defensive identity the same as everybody else, Kurt Farrance
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: and Phil Parker. They've built a career on winning games
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: that look impossible and went on paper. This is Farence's program.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: It's not going anywhere. You never treat in Iowa under casually.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: This programs they will turn a block punt in two
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: field goals into an eight win season more often than
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: they should. But they got fifty six percent of their
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: offensive snaps returning. Only three offensive line starters are back,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: and the quarterback competition was unresolved deep into camp, specifically
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: Frank Brown and Jeremy hickling Ski, with Farrens himself saying
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: the summer it could run through most of August before
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: it settled. Steele's model has Iowa at fifty seventh nationally.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: As far as strength of schedule, I've got it at
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: thirty six. I think the sequencing is the issue. Iowa
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: could open three and oh right, you got Northern Illinois,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Iowa State, Northern Iowa. But then you hit Michigan on
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: the road, Ohio State at home, Washington on the road.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: That is a brutal three games stretched, and then from
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: there you've got your buy you play at Minnesota. Like,
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: if you lose those three, then you're three and three
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: before you get to the back half, and you got
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: to go four and two to be able to get
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: to eight wins. I don't know, you got to go
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: five and one. If you lose to Michigan, Ohio State,
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: and Washington, you have to go five and one against
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: Minnesota on the road, Wisconsin at home, Northwestern on the road,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Purdue at home, Illinois on the road, and nebrask get home.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: You're telling me they could only lose one of those games.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: I don't feel great about that. Like if you're three
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: and three before Halloween and you got to go five
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: and one against the rest of those just to reach eight,
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Like it's it's not impossible, but I I feel better
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: about taking an under here. It's it's a lean say
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: it's an override because my model disagrees with me. But
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: it's also one of my favorite football rates because the
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: quarterback uncertainty, the offensive limitations. This is a genuinely narrow
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: path to eight wins, and we're getting plus money to
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: bet the under. So I'm going with that all right now.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: To recap the unders, Houston is my biggest model edge
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: and the strongest regression play Texas brand name schedule fades
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: not close. Texas has the hardest schedule in the country,
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: per well a lot of people. Arizona is the quarterback
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: team that might get buried by its own draw. Kennesaw
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: State is the defending champ that's in a roster transition.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: In Iowa is my plus money overright, Like some of
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: these teams are gonna look fantastic in September. Let the
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: schedules do the work. The total gets graded after twelve games,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: not four unless you're a pack twelve team, in which
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: gives good good graded after eleven. We'll see shirts, hoodies, hats,
• 33:56
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• 34:00
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• 34:14
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  Speaker 1: an episode. Of course, make sure that you leave a
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• 34:33
  Speaker 1: give a podcasts. All right, let's talk about my sleeper team.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: And this is the team that nobody is talking about,
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: and that would be the Ohio Bobcats. Current best odds
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: over six and a half at minus one eighteen the
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: under at plus one twenty three. Ohio lost almost everything
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: the market knows about it, but it looking at the
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: transfer bortal, et cetera. I think it replaced everything it
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: actually needs. Right the number sis, it's six and a half.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: My combined projection is seven point eighty three wins. You
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: got a gaff or a gap of one point three
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: to three against the market. If the transition hits, this
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: team can win eight or nine games and be a
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: factor in the MAC in November. Right, it's not a
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: returning production sleeper. Ohio brings back only thirty three percent
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: of their offensive snaps, one of the lowest figures in
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: the country. And there's it's a new coach in Athens,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: which is worth naming. Right. Brian Smith was fired back
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: in December after just one season. John Howser, who has
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: been Ohio's defensive coordinator, took over as the interim for
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: the Bowl win, and then he had the interim tag
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: removed days later, so he's the full time coach. Now
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: you're one. I think that coaching turnover and the roster
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: transition is the entire reason that the number is only
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: six and a half. The market sees that and just
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: kind of assumes collapse, But I think that's too simple.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Ohio has been one of the most stable programs in
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: the MAC for years. The roster was rebuilt with some
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: experienced players, not just unproved freshman. The quarterback Matt Visa,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: he arrives from New Hampshire, completed about sixty one percent
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: of his passes. He rushed for over six hundred yards
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: last year, and that's mobility that can hide some offensive
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: line issues. Maybe steal some third downs. In a transition year,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: the running back Victor Rosa comes over from Yukon. He
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: had over thirteen hundred career rushing yards. The offense has
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: an experienced backfield, pairing the raw snap count number like,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: it's not going to reflect that. That's the marketing efficiency
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: in just like one sentence right, returning production metrics only
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: measure who came back from last year's roster really or
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: who was starting that are going to be on your
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: roster now. They say nothing about who walked in the door.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: That's got some real proven experience somewhere else. Steel's schedule
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: model has Ohio at one hundred and thirtieth nationally. That's
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: pretty good. I feel good about that. It's near the
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: bottom of the country. It's one of the easiest schedules
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: in the it A transition offense doesn't need to face
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: Murder's Row every week to find seven wins. And this
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: one isn't going to stone Hill likely win. Akron winnable.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: The Bobcats avoid the kind of week after week gauntlet
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: that would just sink a brand new offense before it
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: finds its footing. You got Akron, you got Kent State,
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: and you got stone Hill all at home. You got
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire at home, which that's going to be a win. Yeah.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: I feel pretty good about this. Transfer production doesn't always
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: translate up a level. You have visa played at the
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: FCS and installing a new system with almost no returning
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: production can get kind of ugly in September. But that's
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: why I call this a sleeper picking, not a lot. Right,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: the ceiling is real, but variances as well. Vegas sees
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: things differently because I see an experience transfer quarterback and
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: experience transfer running back, a stable staff in the conference,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: even though they switched the head guys and it's one
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: of the softest schedules in the country. If the transfers
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: hit Ohio doesn't just catch the over, I think it
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: stays in the mac race deep in November. Hit that
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: subscribe button and make sure to like the video. And
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: if you're listening to the podcast, of course, make sure
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: and visit Winning Cures Everything on YouTube at YouTube dot
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: com slash Winning Cures Everything, so you don't miss any
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: of our college football coverage this season. All right, let's
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: talk about some some big time brands that I'm gonna
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: fade because the trap bet does not look attractive because
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: the team is bad. It looks attractive because the team
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: is actually good. The mistake is assuming that a good
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: team automatically means a good bet. Like both of these
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: teams could be excellent, and I still want no part
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: of the over trap. Bet number one for me Indiana
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: over ten and a half. The current best odds to
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: go over is plus one oh five, to go under
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: is minus one fifteen. And this might be the hardest
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: trap for the public to walk away from. Right now,
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: Indiana is the defending national champion. Everybody has anointed Kurt
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Signetti as the guru, the man, and like they did
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: win the national championship, they went sixteen to oero. Like
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: it's not a figure of speech. They won everything. Signetti
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: has proven that his system works. The roster is loaded.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Josh Hoover was added at quarterback. The coaching staff didn't
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: just mostly stay intact. It is a complete holdover. Offensive
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: coordinator Mike Shanahan and the defensive coordinator Brian Haynes are
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: both back. The only real staff turnover you got is
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: the strength and conditioning guy went over to Tennessee how
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: big is that? Like, we can we can infer a
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: few things maybe, but we'll see. We'll see. Indiana can
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: absolutely compete for another title. I still don't want this over.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: The number is ten and a half. To cash it,
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: Indiana has to go eleven to one or better in
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: the regular season. You get a ten and two season,
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: which would still be one of the the best years
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: in program history, and you're gonna lose this bet outright.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: My combined projection for Indiana's nine point eight three wins,
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: that's excellent. It is also below the total. Indiana returns
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: forty nine percent of their offensive snaps, and they're replacing
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: a championship winning quarterback. Hoover is talented, with more production
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: than Mendoza came in with, but replacing Mendoza off of
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: a title season is still a transition, and the market
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: is pricing that transition as if it's just automatic, simply
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: because Signetty made everything looks so easy a year ago.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: Steele's model actually has Indiana's twenty twenty six schedule at
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: twenty fourth nationally. I've got him thirty fourth. That's a
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: jump from a year ago. It's tougher than the public
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: narrative suggests, like the season does open soft right, North Texas, Howard, Western,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: Kentucky all at home, Northwestern and Bloomington like that, that's
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: an easy four to zero. But that's why this is
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: a trap. By the time the hard part of rives,
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: the public is already going to be convinced that, well,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: they've just got another undefeated run going. And especially I
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: mean you start with Rutgers at Nebraska, Ohio State comes
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: to Bloomington, that you start to get a little difficult there.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: Ohio State at Michigan. It only takes two losses to
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: kill this number, and you got a top twenty five
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: schedule and a new starting quarterback. Two losses is a
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: very live outcome. Like you listen at this Ohio State
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: at home, at Michigan, Minnesota at home, you get a
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: bye week, then you get USC at home, then you
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: have to play at Washington. Indiana may be the best,
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: one of the best five teams in America, eleven regular
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: season wins can still be too high of a bar
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: to me. That is what makes this a trap bet.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: Trap bet number two. The Michigan Wolverines odds on this
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: right now over eight and a half is plus one
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: forty six. The under eight and a half is minus
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: one seventy. Now this one pulls in a different type
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: of better than Indiana. This is not a trust the
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: recent results crowd, but it's more trust the logo, trust
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: the talent, trust the coaching, higher kind of crowd, and
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: I mean it is a new staff that's worth explaining,
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: right Like Michigan Fire shown more this past December. They
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: brought in Kyle Whittingham after twenty plus years at Utah
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: and winning Ham gives Michigan one of the highest coaching
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: floors in the country. Brought in j Hill, his defensive
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: coordinator didn't follow him from there, follow him from BYU,
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: but brings a proven defensive identity. Jason Beck, his offensive coordinator,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: comes over with him. Bryce Underwood has some real superstar upside.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: Michigan returns about seventy percent of their offensive snaps, and
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: the over is sitting at plus money and boy over
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: eight and a half wins. Assuredly, this team can win
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: nine games, Right, Well, there's a reason why the under
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: is juiced as heavily as it is. The combination is
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: gonna look irresistible in pretty much every bar in an
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: arbor and pretty much across the country. But there's a
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: schedule that comes with this, Steel has Michigan with the
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: second toughest schedule in the entire country for twenty twenty six,
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: trailing only Texas. I've got him at number seven. Even still,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: it's a top ten strength to schedule based on projections.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: Right now, we're not going to get into a discussion
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: about htt Lashley and what he thinks about preseason strength
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: to schedule. But ten Power Conference opponents six preseason top
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: twenty five teams, Three of them are top six teams.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: You got Oklahoma at home, Iowa at home, Penn State
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: at home, Indiana at home, and you got at Oregon
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: and at Ohio State. To close the year. To cash
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: the over, Michigan needs nine wins against that. My combined
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: projection for this team is seven point seven to seven.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: That means my number sits much closer to eight and
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: four than it does to nine and three. Now, this
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: is not me saying that Michigan is a disaster. Winningham
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: and Hill should make this team physical and hard to
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: play against almost immediately, and Michigan could easily finish inside
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: the top twenty and still lose this specific bet. The
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: plus money price is that second trap layered on top
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: of the first Right, a bigger payout only means something
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: if the actual probability beats what the price implies, and
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: the book is offering plus money here because eight and
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: four is a completely live outcome against what is the
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: second hardest schedule in the country. Michigan can be significantly
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: better coached, significantly more talented, and still finish eight and
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: four right if you want to. If you want exposure
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: to the roster, like look for an alternate line or
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: a different market. The over at eight and a half
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: is the trap here right recap in the trap bets,
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: Indiana over ten and a half. That's a brand tax fade,
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: not a team fade. I still think that's a top
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: five team, but that's a pretty impossible bar to climb.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Michigan over eight and a half is a genuine schedule trap,
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: second hardest late in the country. To me this it
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: so top ten schedule in the country, and it's a
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: tempting plus money price. Both of these teams can be
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: really good. Both of the bets can still lose. All right,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: let's close this thing out. Let's go over all of
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: the bets so far. I've got Akron over four and
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: a half Washington State over five and a half, those
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: are locks, Bowling Green over four and a half, u
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: CF over five and a half, SMU over eight and
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: a half are leans, and then Syracuse over four and
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: a half is a flyer as far as unders. Houston
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: under eight and a half, Texas under nine and a
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: half are my locks, Arizona under seven and a half,
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: Kinnesas State under six and a half are strong Lians,
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: and Iowa under seven and a half is a plus
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: money model override for me. Sleeper team Ohio over six
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: and a half. Pay attention to that, and then, of
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: course my trap bets Indiana over ten and a half
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: Michigan over eight and a half. I would fade both
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: of those. Season totals require patients. Washington State might start
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: zero to two, Akron may get blown out by a
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: Power four team and so September indianime book, they may
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: look unbeatable through October. None of that invalidates anything that
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: you just heard. We're not betting only one Saturday with these,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: We're betting the whole schedule. So let's check the board
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: back in November. You know what, Just for giggles, trying
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: to keep this a family friendly show just for giggles,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: let's do a bonus under my bonus under that we're
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: going to toss on here, Cincinnati under five and a half.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: Current best odds for this is minus one forty four. UH.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: The case on this is more about roster uh than
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: necessarily schedule. But I think the number might be too
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: good to leave off the show, so we'll let's toss
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: it on here. My combined projection for Cincinnati is five
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: point three one wins. The market is asking for six.
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: On paper, five point three to one against five and
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: a half looks like a coin flip until you look
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: at who is actually coming back. Cincinnati returns only three offensives,
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: all three year offensive linemen. The Bearcats have to replace
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: the quarterback and nearly every established skill position piece. Coach
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: Gott Saderfield is back for year four, but he didn't
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: retain his offensive coordinator. He instead promoted position coaches Pete
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: Thomas and Nick Cardwell to co oc Roles. The new
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: starring quarterback is J. C. French, who takes over for
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: Brendan swersby who left for day we all know what
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: happened to swersby right, I don't necessarily trust J. C. French.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: I was not a huge fan of him at Georgia Southern.
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: But the offensive snapback number I guess is around sixty
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: one percent, which looks fine, but it isn't concentrated at quarterback,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: running back, or receiver, which is where continuity matters a
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: lot in year one of a new coordinator staff and
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: in a new passing offense. Steele's model has Cincinnati at
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: thirty eighth nationally four strength of schedule, I've got him
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: at thirty seventh, tougher than every other under on this list.
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: Six up Texas and Houston. You add a real big
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: twelve schedule on top of a rebuilt skill position group.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: Six wins is a genuine ask, not a formality. The
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: safest projected wins for this team are Western Carolina, Miami
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: and Boston College first three games of the year, but
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: that's the whole safe list. Like after that, Kansas State
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: at Arizona at West Virginia, Texas Tech, Utah at Houston
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: at Iowa State, like and like, the counter to this
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: is fair. Like a veteran offensive line can ease a
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: new quarterbacks transition, it just doesn't erase the need to
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: replace the guy actually throwing the ball or the receivers
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: catching it. So Cincinnati under five and a half. This
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: is a lean, but it's a real one that I
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: feel good enough about the number to give it out
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: on here, and that is going to wrap things up.
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: I feel good about it. I feel good about these numbers.
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: Let me know which ones you are taking in the
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: chat I wanted to, or I guess the comments, whatever
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: it is. If you haven't already, of course, make sure
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: you are subscribed to the channel because we've got a
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: lot more coming up as we head into the season.
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: I am stoked the twenty twenty six college football season.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: It's closer and closer. So with that said, jump in
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: the comments, subscribe to the channel, subscribe to the podcast,
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: and if you want to be a member, of course,
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: you can join buy me at coffee dot com at
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: slash Winning Cures. We're gonna have some numbers going up
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: over there this month, probably this week, as a matter
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: of fact, We're gonna go on and get all of
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: this stuff out there. But I am pumped. I'm excited.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: Hopefully you are as well. With that said, take care
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: of yourself, take care of each other. God bless college football,
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: and hopefully hopefully all of your tickets cash this season.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything, Subscribe, leave a
• 49:58
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• 50:02
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