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Sep 17 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260917 The September 17, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report covers commodity trade updates, energy pressures, agricultural policy, farmland economics, and global weather patterns affecting harvest and planting. Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net assesses early East Central Illinois harvest yields, noting relatively solid soybean returns compared to mixed corn results, while advising producers on risk management amid tight global grain stocks, Black Sea logistical bottlenecks, and US-Canada trade tensions. GasBuddy's Patrick DeHaan examines surging diesel prices driven by drone strikes on Russian refining infrastructure, Middle East supply threats, and constrained domestic refining capacity, alongside news of proposed diesel export bans, steady ethanol production, the Senate Farm Bill advancing out of committee, and House passage of the AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act. Juo-Han Tsay of the University of Illinois evaluates projected 2027 Illinois cash rents, forecasting stable to slightly softening rates due to high input costs offsetting recent commodity price support. Finally, Mike Tannura of Tstorm Weather outlines near-term Corn Belt rainfall distributions, beneficial upcoming moisture across the Southern Plains winter wheat belt, and precipitation trends impacting South American wheat quality and Brazilian soybean planting conditions. 01:19 Ag Markets with Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net 08:32 Diesel Fuel Market with Patrick DeHaan, GasBuddy.com 14:06 2027 Illinois Cash Rents with Juo-Han Tsay, University of Illinois 18:13 Ag Weather with Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 17th day of September 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett from AgMarket.net. We’ll hear from GasBuddy economist Patrick DeHaan about the price of diesel fuel here and across the planet. We’ll turn our attention to cash rents and what 2027 might look like for the state of Illinois. Juo-Han Tsay will join us from the University of Illinois. As we wrap up our time together, we’ll talk about the weather forecast with Mike Tannura at Tstorm Weather in Naperville, Illinois. All on this Thursday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at willag.org. announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: December corn finished at $5.30 and a half today, down three and three quarters. The March at $5.44 and a half, four and a quarter lower. November beans, three quarters of a cent lower at $13.19 and three quarters a bushel. January at $13.37, down a quarter of a cent. Bean meal for the day up $7.80. The bean oil 51 cents lower. 01:19 Ag Markets with Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net Todd Gleason: Matt Bennett from AgMarket.net now joins us from the combine cab near Mattoon, Illinois. He’s in Windsor, actually. Hi, Matt. Thanks much for being with us. Busy day, I know, for you. First, tell me about your inroads. I believe you’re in soybeans today? Matt Bennett: We are cutting beans today. This is our second day cutting beans. They are testing, but there are a lot of leaves on some of these beans at the same time, so they are not the easiest cutting things. Yields are pretty good, testing 12 to 13. I couldn’t ask for something better. I didn’t want to wait too much longer. Once they are really easy to cut, they’re going to be 8%, so we are trying to get on them when we can. Todd Gleason: How do the soybeans compare to expectations? Matt Bennett: I feel in this area here, there is some awfully good corn, and there are some good beans. Relatively speaking, guys are happier with their bean yields versus expectations than they are with corn. I don’t want to shift to corn too quick, but essentially, a lot of folks that had fall anhydrous feel that was a big culprit, that some of their end was lost. I think some of the corn yields I’ve heard between Windsor and Charleston and east haven’t necessarily been what guys were looking for. I haven’t heard too many people upset about bean yields yet, though. Todd Gleason: Anything you’ve been hearing from the rest of the corn belt as it relates to harvest? Matt Bennett: Those guys and gals in Iowa, I feel bad for them. There is no doubt. Several of them reach out and tell me what their totals are for the week. I had a guy in western Iowa say they were saturated and expectations are for rain the next four days. They are pretty aggravated with that. As far as harvest activity, here and east is where I’m hearing the bulk of the activity. We’ve heard some folks in Kansas harvesting as well. If it’s dryland, in some cases unfortunately it’s not worth harvesting, whereas some of the irrigated stuff is coming out pretty good, which is what they would expect there. I’ve heard a little bit of everything, but again, there are areas having to sit and wait right now. Todd Gleason: Last week when we talked, we discussed a change in your attitude as it relates to what producers ought to be thinking about going forward, particularly for grain that needs to go across the scale, maybe even for something that’s happening in the bin. What are you talking to them about this week? Matt Bennett: I’m still a fan of locking in a worst-case scenario either on cash or stuff coming out of the bin. I’ve got no issue with that. I’d like to have some participation in the market if possible. There is no doubt in my mind this market could get awfully interesting if we see El Nino affect other areas of the world. It’s not just South America; whether it’s wheat production in Australia, or in Indonesia, there are a lot of question marks on whether they’re going to get any sort of a monsoon season because historically they stay awfully dry. It’s going to be interesting. A person needs to at least have their toe dipped in the water to participate if we do see further issues around the globe, because we are running awfully tight on corn, and on oilseeds as well. Todd Gleason: Let’s take up oilseeds for a second. Corn as well, and logistics. Palm oil out of Indonesia, very dry there. That has been a problem, and soybean oil has reflected that in part. But that dryness extends all the way from Indonesia through France and parts of Europe. They have had some real issues there with their summer crops, corn in particular. Logistically, between the two of them, Ukraine, the Black Sea, Russia, and the Danube and the Rhine. The Ukrainians need to use those to move grain, and it sounds as if barge traffic might be an issue there. I’m thinking about the logistical issues related to both wheat and corn coming out of that region and what that might mean for the marketplace. Matt Bennett: We’ve got to understand the USDA needs to adjust how much Ukraine is going to get on the global export market when it comes to corn. Overall, I don’t feel that situation is going to abate itself anytime soon. A lot of logistical issues to worry about. That is only going to be positive for us when we look at what our corn export situation is going to be moving forward. A lot of different things can play into this from a geopolitical standpoint and a weather standpoint as well. That’s part of the reason I still feel there’s potential upside in this market. With that being said, do you want to snub your nose at the best prices we’ve seen in the last three years? I don’t know that that’s a great idea. Todd Gleason: On that note, geopolitical, I’m wondering how concerned producers should be about the Canadian-US trade issues and tariffs. The possibility that could continue to erode, particularly as Canada looks to think about becoming part of the European Union as an associate member, the President not happy about that. Ethanol is exported there, actually the number one export destination for US corn ethanol. Matt Bennett: There’s no doubt the US-Canadian issues are concerning. When you look at the ethanol deal, it would be very tough for them financially to find someone better suited to partner with than us. When people get their noses out of joint, it changes everyone’s mindset on what they’re willing to do to prove their point. The bottom line is you have to hope we get this whole thing straightened out, but it’s concerning to say the least. Moving forward, the impacts we could see are the same things we’ve talked about in the past: potash and ethanol. Those are the two biggest ones that come to mind agriculturally. There are some dairy concerns as well, but in our part of the world, those two would hit the hardest. Todd Gleason: Thanks much. I appreciate it. Good luck in the field. Matt Bennett: Absolutely. Thanks for having me. Todd Gleason: That’s Matt Bennett. He is with AgMarket.net. 08:32 Diesel Fuel Market with Patrick DeHaan, GasBuddy.com Todd Gleason: You’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media on this Thursday afternoon. Our theme music for the program is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. Diesel fuel, is it at an all-time high of more than $6 a gallon as farmers begin a very busy harvest season? Patrick DeHaan, the senior petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.com, says the price for fuel in the United States is pretty tough. Patrick DeHaan: It’s not getting any better. New escalations, two new refinery attacks in Russia, have been the reason diesel has nearly completely disconnected from the broader market. These very effective Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have been so impactful they’ve pushed up global diesel prices. It’s causing headaches in Russia; gas lines and rationing are happening. As a result, there’s not enough diesel supply globally. That’s why we are feeling the pain at the pump, especially because these drone attacks are knocking offline refining capacity. Todd Gleason: The petroleum specialist says the US and Iran war isn’t helping either. Patrick DeHaan: There are plenty of other escalations in the Middle East as well: the US and Iran, the Houthis trying to shut down the Red Sea, and a new attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline. This vital oil pipeline that the Saudis have been using to avoid the Strait of Hormuz could now be shut down for several months. None of this is good news, but that’s about the worst possible news, and all of it is fueling what we pay at the pump, especially for diesel. Diesel is very much beholden to Russian refineries. Traditionally, Russia produces one out of every nine barrels of diesel globally, and now that number is zero. That is why diesel is ripping in the market. Todd Gleason: We’re paying more for gas and diesel because both are a global marketplace. Patrick DeHaan: This is a global issue right now. That is what we are paying more for. US refineries have no slack right now. They have been operating at 98% of available capacity. In the Midwest, they’ve been operating at over 100%. If you’re skeptical of how they can do over 100%, it’s something called process gain, meaning there is no margin for error. Todd Gleason: Recent refinery issues, says DeHaan, means fuel prices likely will continue higher. Patrick DeHaan: A couple of refinery issues did develop. Other refineries are doing maintenance. Just about everything is going wrong that could potentially happen. The prognosis is not good. Gasoline and diesel prices are going to continue to advance. Diesel could hit $6.50 or $7 a gallon. I don’t have a crystal ball, so I don’t know how much worse it’s going to get or what new escalations could look like, but there is nothing that looks good in the market right now. Todd Gleason: Again, that was Patrick DeHaan. He is with GasBuddy.com. Now let’s turn our attention to some of the agricultural news for the day. Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he is open to considering a ban on US diesel exports as prices reach those high levels. A proposal that could draw attention from farmers facing higher fuel costs. Thune told reporters that restricting exports could be one way to ease pressure on diesel prices if supply is available. The average reached $6.27 a gallon Tuesday, up 80 cents from a month ago. Diesel prices have been pushed higher by tight global supplies tied to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, along with refinery disruptions. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum Monday said an oil or fuel export ban would be unlikely to lower energy prices. Thune says he’s willing to explore the idea as officials look for ways to address higher costs. Forbes magazine said Thune noted that if the United States is exporting domestic supply, it’s worth considering a halt to those shipments to help lower domestic prices. Let’s stay with energy for a moment. US ethanol production held steady last week while remaining well above year-ago levels and the five-year average, according to Energy Information Administration or EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, or RFA. For the week ending September 11, ethanol output remained at 1.1 million barrels per day, or about 46.16 million gallons daily. Production was 4.2% higher than the same week last year and 11.9% above the five-year average. From energy, let’s go to the farm bill where Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, back from a three-month health absence, cast the winning Ag Committee vote to send the Senate farm bill that Democrats blocked in August to the full chamber. McConnell cast the 12th GOP vote needed to advance the Senate farm bill. The final vote reversed an August defeat when Ag panel Democrats all voted no, with McConnell sidelined and Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville not in the room. Committee approval was a victory for Chair John Boozman, despite a last-minute fight over GOP amendments to reform livestock production standards to deal with California’s Prop 12. The question now is when Majority Leader John Thune will put the farm bill on the Senate floor, given the body is in for just two more weeks before the November elections. And finally today, the House has passed a bill that would require AM radio access in new vehicles, sending the legislation to the Senate. The House approved the AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act by voice vote Tuesday. That’s a look at today’s agricultural news. 14:06 2027 Illinois Cash Rents with Juo-Han Tsay, University of Illinois Todd Gleason: We’re now joined by Juo-Han Tsay. She is the assistant director of the TIAA Center for Farmland Research. Thank you, Juo-Han, for being with us this morning. You and Gary Schnitkey made a presentation, a webinar that folks can go back and find on the Farmdoc Daily website under the webinars and events section archive, or go to youtube.com/@farmdoc. This was about cash rents, what the NASS, or National Agricultural Statistics Service, numbers were in the month of August when they surveyed producers and others around the nation to see what cash rents look like by county. And then some thoughts about going forward, as producers will be needing to set cash rents by the end of October. Let’s start with the background. You used not only the NASS numbers for today’s presentation but numbers from other places. Juo-Han Tsay: Today in our presentation, we talked about the NASS number, which came out several weeks ago. We also talked about our Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers group numbers from our mid-year surveys. Todd Gleason: When you look at those and you see what happened last year, are there trends across the state? Juo-Han Tsay: Our USDA number shows that this year Illinois is about $261 per acre, which is lower, coming down from our peak in 2024. Our Illinois Society survey shows the expectation for 2027 cash rents will be decreasing about $3 to $5 per acre from 2026. However, it is based on the expectation during the summer when we did the surveys. Right now, crop prices can be a little bit higher than what we expected. My expectation is that we may see an even smaller decrease, smaller than $3 to $5 for 2027. Todd Gleason: So $5 corn and $12 soybeans has made a difference in what you believe producers will need to pay for cash rent next year? That’s not offset apparently by the idea that the price of diesel fuel and other input prices are going to be going higher. Juo-Han Tsay: We still have the input price on the other side. Even though we have higher prices, we still have higher input costs. We will not see cash rent totally increasing on the other side, but it probably will hold similar levels to 2026 or decrease just a little bit. Todd Gleason: How does this compare to average over time? Juo-Han Tsay: On average right now, even though we have a slightly better margin, it is still lower than the long-run average of our margin over the past decades. Our cash rent compared to the average is softening but stable. Todd Gleason: Anything else about the presentation today or farmland values, cash rents that we should be talking about? Juo-Han Tsay: Even though we’re looking at next year’s farmland value, I don’t believe people usually hold farmland for one or two years. We’re looking at longer-term decades. We probably see a softening market right now in the farmland market, but when held longer term, the expectation is still going up. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Juo-Han. Juo-Han Tsay: Thank you. Todd Gleason: Juo-Han Tsay is the assistant director at the TIAA Center for Farmland Research here on campus. You can see the webinar that she and Gary Schnitkey put forth from earlier today online this afternoon at farmdocdaily.illinois.edu in the webinars archive section or go to youtube.com/@farmdoc. 18:13 Ag Weather with Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the global growing regions. Mike Tannura is here. He’s the president and CEO at Tstorm Weather in Naperville, Illinois at tstorm.net online. Hi, Mike, thanks for being with us. Mike Tannura: Hey Todd, thanks a lot for having me here. Todd Gleason: Tell me about the Corn Belt weather forecast. Mike Tannura: We have a lot of rain coming up for central and northern growing regions. We’ve already seen quite a bit of rain in and around Iowa in recent days, and we saw decent totals over the last 36 hours in parts of Illinois and Indiana. As we move into the weekend, we’re going to see more. We have a cold front stalled across the Corn Belt and two waves of energy approaching. These are essentially going to converge over the next several days, leading to decent totals from Nebraska and South Dakota east through the northern half to two-thirds of the Corn Belt. We’re talking about areas around Interstate 80 and north, but some will extend south to Interstate 74 in Indiana and Illinois. Overall, we’re going to see one to two inches in a large swath as we move through the weekend, turning those northern areas wetter. The reason we’re not overly concerned for corn and soybeans is that most of the harvesting taking place now is in the southern parts of the Corn Belt, which is going to stay hot and dry all the way into next week. We don’t have concerns about this wetness getting into the area that wants to harvest. Todd Gleason: Speaking of next week, what do you see then? Mike Tannura: There’s a third system coming out, and this is the one that means a lot for wheat. The hard red winter wheat growing region has been really hot and dry. High temperatures have been in the 90s and 100s over much of the last month. Even though the wheat’s not in the ground, soil moisture is very low out there. That third system is going to move through next week and dump right on top of Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, turning that wheat growing region a lot wetter. Our proprietary calculations show that by October 1st, only 4% of expected US hard red winter wheat production should be drier than normal over the last 30 days. That gives you an indication this rain is significant and will help with planting and growth next month. Todd Gleason: Turn your attention to wheat in South America. Brazil has a wheat crop, not very big, and Argentina as well. I’m trying to get an idea of what the change of seasons means there. Mike Tannura: The wheat crop in Brazil is very wet. They’ve been getting hit by rains for quite a while, and the rains have continued over the last few weeks. Our bigger concern is that we have major rain coming up this weekend, another around Monday, and probably another next weekend. The wheat crop in Brazil is getting hammered with rains. That’s going to last for another 10 days and maybe into October. Typically, when you get a lot of rain on a wheat crop, you lose quality. We’re telling our customers to monitor that because you get a higher yield but lower quality. In Argentina, nothing unusual has happened to this point in time. It’s early in Argentina, and their wheat doesn’t turn sensitive until next month. At this point, we don’t have many concerns for it. Todd Gleason: Turn your attention to the center-west part of Brazil. Mato Grosso, some of the other states there that would be prime soybean producing regions. What do you see? Mike Tannura: They saw very early rains. Typically, it doesn’t rain much in September, if at all, and we’ve seen nice totals over the first half of the month. It looks a little dry over the next five to 10 days, but there are hints that the rains in the southern wheat belt of Brazil will shift north once we get to the end of the month. As long as that happens, that will continue to improve soil moisture across Brazil and lead to at least okay planting for soybeans in early October. A lot has to happen between now and then, but at this point in time, there are just not very many concerns. Todd Gleason: Okay, thank you much. I appreciate it. Mike Tannura: Yeah, thank you, Todd. Todd Gleason: That’s Mike Tannura. He is the president and CEO at Tstorm Weather in Naperville, Illinois, online at tstorm.net. Joined us here on the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at willag.org. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.