Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA Round 3 Showdown - Arnold Palmer Invitational | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process | 03/07/26

Transcript

PGA Round 3 Showdown - Arnold Palmer Invitational | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process | 03/07/26 · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:04
Speaker 1: All system's gone clear, you're lifting.
0:35
Speaker 2: Welcome to another Friday night, Friday Night with ship a Nation.
0:40
Speaker 2: Round three now, Round three showdown Bayhill. I am. I'm
0:44
Speaker 2: very happy to be talking some golf on Friday afternoon,
0:47
Speaker 2: Friday evening. It is what five point fifteen Eastern time.
0:50
Speaker 2: I know the cut is not set in stone just yet,
0:53
Speaker 2: but we have a good, uh, a good idea of
0:55
Speaker 2: where we were looking at. Obviously, things may change. So
0:58
Speaker 2: if I'm talking about some guys on the cut line,
1:00
Speaker 2: if I like him and they're not on the cut line,
1:02
Speaker 2: that means I don't like them because they're not gonna
1:03
Speaker 2: be playing tomorrow and you can't play them. So if
1:06
Speaker 2: you do, I'm sorry, but just don't play the guys
1:09
Speaker 2: who are around the cut line without checking if they
1:11
Speaker 2: make made the cut first or not. Because got some
1:14
Speaker 2: stuff going on, had to get the show done a
1:15
Speaker 2: little bit early tonight. So we're back. Let's talk about
1:20
Speaker 2: round two. Who did what, how it went down. I'll
1:23
Speaker 2: bring up my screen right now. We see Ox Shay
1:25
Speaker 2: still on the golf course, Sahith Daniel Berger again, Rory
1:30
Speaker 2: all rounds with four under or better. And this is
1:31
Speaker 2: a really unique kind of round two scoring, Like usually
1:36
Speaker 2: with every single round there's just like one set in
1:38
Speaker 2: stone way that people do it. It's like, all right,
1:41
Speaker 2: driving accuracy prevailed today, all right, bombers prevailed today, all
1:44
Speaker 2: Right X prevail today. This week was like it was
1:48
Speaker 2: it was so weird. It was like there's no distance bias,
1:51
Speaker 2: there was no accuracy bias. Guys did it in multiple ways,
1:55
Speaker 2: and the only constant was just like stern ball striking,
1:58
Speaker 2: Like you had to hit the ball well and then
2:00
Speaker 2: their pop in one of the two short game categories,
2:02
Speaker 2: whether that's putting or around the green. So that kind
2:04
Speaker 2: of checks out with Bayhil, like you have to just
2:07
Speaker 2: be a stern, solid ball striker no matter how you're doing. Obviously,
2:11
Speaker 2: long and straight will work anywhere, but this is a
2:13
Speaker 2: week where you're able to do it in multiple ways.
2:17
Speaker 2: And I kind of talked about that on the Monday
2:18
Speaker 2: the Monday First Look show, like there's multiple styles where
2:21
Speaker 2: guys have won this event, and that's kind of prevailing
2:24
Speaker 2: right now, and even with the rounds of the day,
2:26
Speaker 2: like there's no set in stone way that guys are
2:28
Speaker 2: getting it done, which I guess makes Showdown more difficult
2:32
Speaker 2: for the next two days like there's not one set
2:33
Speaker 2: in stone thing that I want to lay into. I
2:37
Speaker 2: like when that's the case, because I just go all
2:39
Speaker 2: my eggs in that basket and if it works, usually
2:41
Speaker 2: I have a high end finish. I'm all about having
2:43
Speaker 2: a tight core and just like going into one like
2:46
Speaker 2: massive bullet. All right, Scotty's putting for Eagle. Announced it
2:49
Speaker 2: for me, Sam, is it close? Scotty's putting for Eagle.
2:52
Speaker 2: This is important stuff, rolling real close right? All right?
2:58
Speaker 2: Scotty to four hunderd I' sweating Scotty. You guys know Scotti.
3:00
Speaker 2: I think a big rounds coming from Scoty tomorrow. By
3:02
Speaker 2: the way, big rounds coming from Scotty. He gets to
3:04
Speaker 2: four under, he's played horrendously today and he's two under
3:08
Speaker 2: on the day with what now two holes to go.
3:11
Speaker 2: Hopefully we get some some some more love for Scotty,
3:13
Speaker 2: but I'll get into him a little bit later. Back
3:15
Speaker 2: to the key stats. Just like, nothing nothing set in stone,
3:20
Speaker 2: and like I, like I said, I like to dive
3:21
Speaker 2: into one real stat to really just like give myself
3:25
Speaker 2: an edge and if if that stat pans out, bang
3:27
Speaker 2: we're cashing or bang we're not cashing. At all. I
3:30
Speaker 2: like to be all the way in or all the
3:31
Speaker 2: way out. I don't like those like I don't like
3:33
Speaker 2: those min cashes at least that's put on. I'm not
3:35
Speaker 2: good at those. I'm not good at a more balanced
3:36
Speaker 2: type build. I like to be very low owned, tried
3:40
Speaker 2: and true, go for it all mentality. So we will
3:43
Speaker 2: get to the wave split. We'll get to the wind
3:47
Speaker 2: and weather for tomorrow. Uh so, let's let's bring that up.
3:49
Speaker 2: I update the page a little bit, looking like the
3:51
Speaker 2: cut is one hundred percent to so I trust data
3:54
Speaker 2: golf one hundred percent too. Uh, hold by whole course
3:57
Speaker 2: stats round two waves split, So there was not really
4:01
Speaker 2: any waysplit. Today the morning played a tad easier, and
4:04
Speaker 2: honestly this oh sorry, I am messed up the There
4:08
Speaker 2: we go. The morning played a tad easier, but it
4:10
Speaker 2: was nothing like true to really make it a splait.
4:14
Speaker 2: I thought it would play easier than it did. But
4:17
Speaker 2: tomorrow I think it could be different because when I
4:19
Speaker 2: bring up the weather, I see a world where they
4:22
Speaker 2: could move these tea times up, like we have thunderstorms
4:25
Speaker 2: coming in at one pm and at four pm. I
4:28
Speaker 2: would see a potential world where they moved the tea
4:30
Speaker 2: they started at seven forty today, they started what seven fifteen,
4:34
Speaker 2: seven twenty tomorrow, with less guys in the field, they'll
4:36
Speaker 2: easily be able to finish in time if they go
4:40
Speaker 2: off ahead of time. So I think, no matter what,
4:44
Speaker 2: earlier is better. But if they moved the tea times up,
4:47
Speaker 2: that just like amplifies it even more so earlier is
4:50
Speaker 2: better no matter what for tomorrow. So what we're looking
4:55
Speaker 2: for for tomorrow stat wise is just why do I
4:58
Speaker 2: keep doing? That? Is just solid ball shriking, just tried
5:01
Speaker 2: and true solid ball striking, and finding that those guys
5:06
Speaker 2: who can mix in the short game, finding those guys
5:08
Speaker 2: who have a little bit of short game, like even
5:10
Speaker 2: short game with the ability to pop from good ball striking.
5:14
Speaker 2: So I think that is the solid way to do it.
5:18
Speaker 2: Let me try to fix my screen work, quik, Why
5:19
Speaker 2: does that happen? There? We go much better? All right,
5:21
Speaker 2: let's go to the DraftKings, bring up the contest. Always
5:25
Speaker 2: talk some contest selection as we go. So Saturday, March seventh,
5:29
Speaker 2: what a day is? March seventh will be It's one
5:31
Speaker 2: of my favorite days of the year. Truly. Let's zoom
5:34
Speaker 2: in a little bit, what do we got here? I
5:37
Speaker 2: haven't looked at any of the contexts yet. This is
5:38
Speaker 2: three dollars twenty max. Ten dollars twenty max. Okay, this
5:43
Speaker 2: is a I don't really usually see this one unless
5:46
Speaker 2: I'm totally missing it. Two K up top and then
5:49
Speaker 2: tenth place sixty. I don't think this is the greatest
5:52
Speaker 2: payout structure in the world. But only three and fifty
5:54
Speaker 2: two people in there, and you're getting twenty lineups to
5:56
Speaker 2: possibly win two K, So what this is interesting? Now?
6:00
Speaker 2: I'm kind of intrigued by this one. So three point
6:03
Speaker 2: fifty two divided by twenty if you max enter that,
6:06
Speaker 2: the if you max under that and everyone max enters that,
6:09
Speaker 2: that means you only have to be eighteen people. I
6:13
Speaker 2: don't think this is the worst contest based on just
6:16
Speaker 2: like pure size alone, and not everyone's going to max
6:19
Speaker 2: enter it. So if you max under that, I think
6:20
Speaker 2: that is a real like a real uh potential edge.
6:25
Speaker 2: Oh that's a weekend. That's why that's weekend. Sorry, here
6:29
Speaker 2: we go. Either way, that's a really good contest in
6:31
Speaker 2: my opinion. That's why I haven't seen it. Here we
6:34
Speaker 2: go a ten dollars eighteen max. The fifty five dollars
6:37
Speaker 2: was a great contest yesterday and I think is another
6:40
Speaker 2: great contest today, the fifty five dollars twelve max. Does
6:43
Speaker 2: anyone play weekend contest like just weekend alone, because I
6:46
Speaker 2: really like that payout structure fifty five dollars again, obviously
6:50
Speaker 2: ten dollars, which we talked about the twelve dollars yesterday.
6:53
Speaker 2: We have the three K twelve dollars. We'll see if
6:56
Speaker 2: we're got a six K twelve dollars most likely not.
6:59
Speaker 2: But this payout structure is not the best. I think
7:02
Speaker 2: it was better in the six k. And what else
7:05
Speaker 2: do I want to touch on? I'm not going to
7:07
Speaker 2: touch on the satellite the twenty dollars five max house
7:10
Speaker 2: this payout structure five hundred up top tenth, get seventy
7:15
Speaker 2: five and only one hundred sixty one undred seventy six contests.
7:18
Speaker 2: If you do one hundred and seventy six divided by five,
7:22
Speaker 2: I means you only have to be thirty five point
7:24
Speaker 2: two people if they all max enter. Not everyone will
7:26
Speaker 2: max entering. So if you want to put a one
7:28
Speaker 2: hundred dollars, you'll have an edge for sure in terms
7:31
Speaker 2: of overlay. So I do like these contests. Before we
7:34
Speaker 2: get into the players with the glaring weaknesses, I want
7:37
Speaker 2: to show you some tools, some stuff, and I need
7:40
Speaker 2: you guys to use the code because, like I said,
7:42
Speaker 2: I don't know how much longer it's going to be there.
7:44
Speaker 2: But if you use this code, you get this stone.
7:46
Speaker 2: The stone is a great tool to look and see
7:50
Speaker 2: whether it's pivot sleepers, true approach delta. So many different
7:54
Speaker 2: tools on the stone that you can only get with
7:55
Speaker 2: us at trip it nation dot com. As well. You
7:59
Speaker 2: get the projections rejections will be up in the next
8:01
Speaker 2: three hours, I would say, because I'm doing the show
8:03
Speaker 2: early and as always, join the Nation. You can get
8:06
Speaker 2: a ton of great stuff, including the Slate Plan, which
8:08
Speaker 2: I will show after this all access you get all
8:11
Speaker 2: every single sport plus the optimizer. If you just want
8:14
Speaker 2: the golf hit single sport PGA and get any of
8:17
Speaker 2: these three, I would suggest this middle one right here
8:19
Speaker 2: the best price in my opinion. You get PGA plus
8:22
Speaker 2: the optimizer, you get boots on the ground, you get
8:24
Speaker 2: the slate plans. I'll always be honest with the slate plans.
8:27
Speaker 2: We've had great ones, we've had some bad ones. Yes,
8:30
Speaker 2: today was not the best slate plan, not that anyone
8:32
Speaker 2: scored like crazy anyway, but we've had better slate plans
8:36
Speaker 2: than we've had today, so hopefully we could bounce back tomorrow.
8:41
Speaker 2: This will be up in the next hour or so.
8:44
Speaker 2: So you use this, you use the projections, you use
8:47
Speaker 2: the stone, you go right here to Sabersim, and then
8:50
Speaker 2: you check the stone. All those tools, projections and the
8:54
Speaker 2: slate plan are to build a player pool. And once
8:57
Speaker 2: you have your player pool, you go get your slate.
8:59
Speaker 2: You hit bang, hit your slate, and then you go
9:03
Speaker 2: up here, pick your slate, pick your guys, and you build.
9:06
Speaker 2: So that's what I'm looking for in terms of contest selection,
9:11
Speaker 2: in terms of content on the site coming soon. For now,
9:16
Speaker 2: we will look at some tournament stats, see who's doing what,
9:19
Speaker 2: how they did it, and who can improve. In tomorrow
9:22
Speaker 2: and in the weekend, let me know if Scotty does
9:25
Speaker 2: anything cool over there, Sam, I need to I obviously
9:28
Speaker 2: need to have the Scotti Scheffler update. While I'm I
9:32
Speaker 2: got a a wall blocking off the back on seventeen
9:38
Speaker 2: and the deep rough first cut, all right, we need
9:43
Speaker 2: to know what Scotty is going on, and like I mean,
9:44
Speaker 2: don't feel free to drop a comment like let me
9:46
Speaker 2: know if this is easy up and down, because this
9:48
Speaker 2: is big time stuff right now. Sweating and Scotti Scheffler
9:50
Speaker 2: three to one ticket. I'm just kidding. No, I'm actually
9:54
Speaker 2: not kidding. I'm sweating it. That's what we're here for it.
9:56
Speaker 2: We're here to sweat together a little cut sweat action.
9:58
Speaker 2: But there's not really cut sweat. It's just that plus.
10:00
Speaker 2: I guess they can look at the cut sweat before
10:01
Speaker 2: I get into it. Who's on the cut line? I
10:03
Speaker 2: believe it, Shane Lowry. Let's see, let's see, let's see,
10:08
Speaker 2: all right, total, who is on this cut line of
10:13
Speaker 2: minus two? This is just I feel like I'm looking
10:18
Speaker 2: at the wrong thing right now. Oh plus two, I'm
10:23
Speaker 2: so dumb. All right, this cut line is locked in
10:25
Speaker 2: at plus two. It says there's no one at three over.
10:30
Speaker 2: Shane Lowry is waiting to the moment of truth for
10:34
Speaker 2: Shane Lowry on eighteen right now. As you guys know,
10:38
Speaker 2: eighteen not an easy hole. Let me know what Shane
10:42
Speaker 2: does in on this eighteenth hole, because I know he
10:44
Speaker 2: was an interesting, interesting bullet this week, and I bess
10:47
Speaker 2: everyone else is kind of not really in target with
10:50
Speaker 2: the cut line. All right, so let's get into the
10:53
Speaker 2: glamor Reeka says, see who did what? See who can
10:56
Speaker 2: improve tomorrow? So Daniel Berger leads the way. Having these
11:00
Speaker 2: are all multiplied by two because these have the way
11:02
Speaker 2: data golf sorts it out as one one round aggregate.
11:06
Speaker 2: So gaining a two strokes off the tee, getting five
11:09
Speaker 2: strokes on approach, like five point two strokes on approach
11:11
Speaker 2: another four and a half strokes putting. That is one
11:13
Speaker 2: of the most elite two round UH stat lines that
11:17
Speaker 2: maybe ever And it checks out. He's got a five
11:19
Speaker 2: stroke lead on ox Shore Batia and a six stroke
11:22
Speaker 2: lead on the rest of the field. Do I expect
11:25
Speaker 2: Daniel Berger to go out and shoot another round of
11:27
Speaker 2: four under? No, we know what he's done, like I
11:30
Speaker 2: guess under the under the pressure in his career, but
11:34
Speaker 2: I wouldn't expect him to just necessarily shoot for over.
11:37
Speaker 2: So I would say Daniel Berger just to stay away
11:39
Speaker 2: guy from me unless he's super super low owned, which
11:42
Speaker 2: he could be. Then I could get to get to
11:44
Speaker 2: some Burger. Lud is really interesting. He's gaining about three
11:49
Speaker 2: strokes on approach just getting a half a stroke off
11:51
Speaker 2: the T and gaining two point six strokes putting. That's
11:55
Speaker 2: a really really good stat line for Ludwig because we
11:57
Speaker 2: know his best skill set is the driver and he
12:00
Speaker 2: hasn't even driven it that well so far. If he
12:02
Speaker 2: could find the driver, give himself even more looks he
12:04
Speaker 2: can have another round of three under. Round will go
12:08
Speaker 2: so far tomorrow in the conditions. So if Ludgig just
12:11
Speaker 2: drives a tad better, he should have three under at
12:13
Speaker 2: the minimum. Colin on seventeen right now, he might be done.
12:16
Speaker 2: But Colin is one under on the day with another
12:20
Speaker 2: like kind of similar stat line of Ludvig, like he's
12:23
Speaker 2: not driving it that well at all, and he's probably
12:25
Speaker 2: driving an accurate. But that's really let's look at these
12:28
Speaker 2: player types. Colin should an a next to it. Yeah,
12:30
Speaker 2: he's driving an accurate not long, so I wouldn't necessarily
12:32
Speaker 2: think Colin's gonna just pop Let's find guys down here
12:35
Speaker 2: who actually have some weaknesses that we can potentially pop
12:38
Speaker 2: in onto. Cameron Young. Cameron Young, he's gaining He's gaining
12:42
Speaker 2: nearly seven strokes off the T in two rounds. That
12:45
Speaker 2: is comedy stuck from Cameron Young, and I expect nothing
12:48
Speaker 2: less because Cameron Young probably is winning four majors this year.
12:51
Speaker 2: So he's getting seven off the t another stroke on approach,
12:56
Speaker 2: losing one around the green, gaining half a stroke on
13:01
Speaker 2: the show game. This is a perfect profile I'm looking
13:03
Speaker 2: for for tomorrow. So what I said earlier, solid ball striking,
13:07
Speaker 2: good ball striking average around the green. If one of
13:09
Speaker 2: those around the greens pop and pairs with that solid
13:11
Speaker 2: ball striking bang, you're getting that elite, elite stuff from
13:15
Speaker 2: Cameron Young. So I really do like that camer Young
13:19
Speaker 2: profile for tomorrow. Now, this is a profile that I
13:21
Speaker 2: think a lot of people will want to go to.
13:23
Speaker 2: Seawoo Kim gaining two strokes off the tee, getting another
13:27
Speaker 2: seven strokes on approach, and he's losing six strokes putting
13:30
Speaker 2: less than six strokes putting. Everyone's gonna be like, oh,
13:33
Speaker 2: Seawou can just find the flat stick, He's gonna have
13:35
Speaker 2: a good round. Guys. You know it's not that easy.
13:37
Speaker 2: Guys don't always just find the flat stick in one
13:40
Speaker 2: one off round. If you play golf, you know you don't.
13:42
Speaker 2: You're not owed anything on the greens, and Seawoo knows
13:44
Speaker 2: he's not owed anything. On the greens. It could just
13:46
Speaker 2: be a bad putting week for Seawoo. I don't want
13:48
Speaker 2: to chase a bad putter. I'd rather ride a lucky
13:50
Speaker 2: good putter because we see it. We see guys have
13:53
Speaker 2: luck putters for two three rounds. So I'd rather ride
13:57
Speaker 2: a lucky one then try to chase the flip because
13:59
Speaker 2: the flips don't come as often as we'd like them too,
14:02
Speaker 2: So I'm probably out on Seawoo here this one. Matt Fitzpatrick,
14:06
Speaker 2: Matt fitz Patrick, he is gaining three strokes off the
14:09
Speaker 2: t losing is this issually ten strokes on approach? There's
14:12
Speaker 2: no way that's a real number. I need to I
14:14
Speaker 2: need to go look at Mat fitz Patrick right now.
14:17
Speaker 2: Is this is quite concerning. Okay, he's losing five point six,
14:21
Speaker 2: so those data golf numbers aren't necessarily fully caught up yet. Still, nonetheless,
14:27
Speaker 2: Matt Fitzpatrick losing five point six strokes on approach, driving
14:31
Speaker 2: the piss out of it. That's kind of what I
14:33
Speaker 2: saw from him this week. And I know that this
14:35
Speaker 2: this approach number is not that bad. He is not
14:38
Speaker 2: nearly that far off with the irons. So if Matt
14:42
Speaker 2: can just have a. I'm sure his approach to true
14:44
Speaker 2: approach delta will be solid tomorrow. So go look at
14:47
Speaker 2: Fitz's true approach delta when the stone comes out. If
14:51
Speaker 2: it's anything near zero, anything near like two minus two,
14:55
Speaker 2: I'm in on on a on Matt Fitzpatrick in that
14:59
Speaker 2: regard to who else, who else is doing things okay
15:03
Speaker 2: and not popping where they could pop. Wow, what a
15:07
Speaker 2: stat line for Max Grazerman, And that kind of pads
15:10
Speaker 2: with his scorecard today. Who's this right here? Andrew Putnam?
15:14
Speaker 2: So I don't mind this profile from Andrew Putnam. He's
15:17
Speaker 2: gaining about two strokes on approach. I would assume minus
15:21
Speaker 2: two to four off the tee. A good short game,
15:24
Speaker 2: not the best putting. Andrew Putnam is a really good putter.
15:26
Speaker 2: He's never going to gain off the tee, but he'll
15:28
Speaker 2: gain in terms of accuracy, and the short game is
15:31
Speaker 2: fine with room to pop, and he's hitting his iron
15:33
Speaker 2: as well. So Andrew Putnam is a really good golfer
15:36
Speaker 2: to potentially pop at super lower ownership, to pair with
15:40
Speaker 2: Scott in the six k range. I definitely like him,
15:43
Speaker 2: like him a ton. So those are some guys, some
15:46
Speaker 2: guys that I think could pop some glaring weaknesses. That
15:49
Speaker 2: leads us to the one golfer that I am on
15:51
Speaker 2: for tomorrow, and it is guy by the name of
15:54
Speaker 2: Tommy Fleetwood. Tommy Fleetwood shot a thirty three on the
15:57
Speaker 2: back nine to make the cut finish one over for
15:59
Speaker 2: the torn thus far, and look at this that line.
16:02
Speaker 2: He's not doing anything great. He's not this bad at putting.
16:05
Speaker 2: This is a putter who will flip and more than anything,
16:08
Speaker 2: I just like Tommy Fleetwood in backdoor scenarios. I do
16:12
Speaker 2: think he's gonna he's gonna like mix at a harder
16:15
Speaker 2: rate this year and have less backdoors than he usually does.
16:18
Speaker 2: But nonetheless, we know Tommy Fleetwood is a perennial backdoor player.
16:21
Speaker 2: So whether it's tomorrow, whether it's Sunday, I expect that
16:24
Speaker 2: five under round from Tommy to come in difficult conditions
16:27
Speaker 2: because we know he does that. He does that better
16:30
Speaker 2: than a lot of people just bucks up on Saturday
16:32
Speaker 2: and Sunday when he's out of the tournament and posts
16:33
Speaker 2: like a nice top five finish. So Tommy Fleetwood is
16:36
Speaker 2: the one golfer I am on for tomorrow. As always,
16:40
Speaker 2: the song of the day for this this stream is
16:44
Speaker 2: going to be paradox by the pretty wild. Check it out.
16:48
Speaker 2: The playlist is already up to date. As you guys know,
16:51
Speaker 2: you guys are asking the discord, so that leaves us.
16:54
Speaker 2: That's the show. Hope you guys enjoyed. I will be
16:56
Speaker 2: back tomorrow, March seventh for Round four showdown and as always,
17:01
Speaker 2: ship it. Peace out,