Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 3/16/26: US Allies Reject Helping Trump, Oil Execs Dire Warning, Missiles Hit Israel

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3/16/26: US Allies Reject Helping Trump, Oil Execs Dire Warning, Missiles Hit Israel · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. We have an
0:36
Speaker 3: amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal,
0:39
Speaker 3: indeed we do.
0:40
Speaker 2: Trump really scrambling making a ton of comments yesterday evening.
0:43
Speaker 2: He's begging other countries to help secure the street up
0:45
Speaker 2: four moves. He's saying, maybe we shouldn't even be in
0:48
Speaker 2: or on. Perhaps that's something he should have thought of
0:49
Speaker 2: before he launched this illegal war of choice.
0:52
Speaker 4: It's a lot to get to there.
0:53
Speaker 2: We're also keeping the eye on the markets as they
0:56
Speaker 2: open this morning. Oil prices obviously have been spiking, hovering
0:59
Speaker 2: right now around one hundred dollars a barrel and huge
1:02
Speaker 2: potential economic of fallout looming. Israel is reportedly running low
1:07
Speaker 2: on interceptors. Martaza Hussein is going to join us to
1:09
Speaker 2: break down the damage to that country. Trump and his
1:13
Speaker 2: FCC are threatening broadcasters who tell the truth about his
1:16
Speaker 2: war there, demanding patriotic news coverage.
1:19
Speaker 4: Very dystopian thing there.
1:21
Speaker 2: Tucker Carlson is claiming he's being spied on and may
1:24
Speaker 2: be charged by the Trump administration, and Trump official David
1:28
Speaker 2: Sachs says that he fears Israel may actually use a nuke,
1:32
Speaker 2: which is the first time the US administration has actually
1:35
Speaker 2: acknowledged that Israel is a nuclear power, and obviously the
1:38
Speaker 2: dire warning ceas sounding is pretty remarkable coming from someone
1:41
Speaker 2: who is inside of this administration.
1:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, Tom, for the first US official ever,
1:46
Speaker 3: I think, to acknowledge Israel's nuclear program. So we do
1:49
Speaker 3: want to thank you David Sachs for finally acknowledging it
1:52
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Speaker 3: people find the show. Also bear with us. Crystal is home.
2:29
Speaker 3: We have an insane tornado warning here, so who the
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Speaker 3: hell knows what's going to happen here in the DMV area.
2:34
Speaker 3: If anything happens tomorrow, there you go. That's the reason why.
2:38
Speaker 3: But yeah, why don't we go ahead and start with
2:39
Speaker 3: the straits of horror moves and the crisis there?
2:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Trump making all kinds of wild comments posting
2:45
Speaker 2: on truth social clearly scrambling, and increasingly one of the
2:49
Speaker 2: goals of the war is clearly to reopen the straight
2:52
Speaker 2: of horror moves, which of course was open before we
2:55
Speaker 2: started this war, so really sort of backsliding here. In
2:58
Speaker 2: any case, have some remarkable comments from Trump on Air
3:01
Speaker 2: Force One yesterday evening, where he is not only begging
3:04
Speaker 2: other countries to help us out, threatening them on saying,
3:07
Speaker 2: you know, maybe he'll blow up NATO effectively if they
3:10
Speaker 2: don't join in, and helping to solve the problem that
3:13
Speaker 2: he himself created, but also saying I don't I'm not
3:16
Speaker 2: sure we should be there in the first place, which
3:18
Speaker 2: is just like, oh my god, like what is going
3:21
Speaker 2: on here. Let's take a listen to what he had
3:22
Speaker 2: to say.
3:23
Speaker 5: Some of the countries would be it will help. Remember,
3:27
Speaker 5: it only takes a couple of people to screw up
3:30
Speaker 5: the straight a couple of turkeys.
3:31
Speaker 6: You don't need.
3:32
Speaker 5: Their military is compete it. What all you need is
3:35
Speaker 5: a few people dropping minds here and there, and you
3:38
Speaker 5: know he allows.
3:39
Speaker 7: It up, so we need I were really I'm.
3:44
Speaker 5: Demanding that these countries come in and protect their own
3:47
Speaker 5: territory because it is their territory. It's the place from
3:51
Speaker 5: which they get their energy, and they should come and
3:55
Speaker 5: they should help us protecting. You could make the case
3:59
Speaker 5: that maybe we shouldn't even be there at all because
4:02
Speaker 5: we don't need it. We have a lot of oil
4:03
Speaker 5: being with the number one producer anywhere in the world
4:06
Speaker 5: times soon my double at least, So now.
4:09
Speaker 8: I think it's much higher than that.
4:11
Speaker 5: But we do it. It's almost like we do it
4:14
Speaker 5: for having but we also do it for some very
4:17
Speaker 5: good allies that.
4:18
Speaker 9: We have in the Middle East.
4:21
Speaker 2: So Sagar, we broke it, and now he wants the
4:23
Speaker 2: rest of the world to come in and fix it
4:25
Speaker 2: and say, and maybe we shouldn't even be there at all. Yeah,
4:28
Speaker 2: you think, you think maybe, so, maybe we should have
4:31
Speaker 2: thought of that before you launched this war on palth
4:34
Speaker 2: of Israel.
4:35
Speaker 3: This is just the clearest evidence that we have that
4:38
Speaker 3: not only was there no plan, but they really just
4:40
Speaker 3: didn't believe that the streets of Hormuz would be closed.
4:43
Speaker 1: And I've seen a lot of talk about this.
4:45
Speaker 3: Of course they knew it was probable or possible, but
4:48
Speaker 3: the point is that they didn't think it was probable.
4:50
Speaker 3: Remember that during the Gulf War, President hw Bush, on
4:53
Speaker 3: the very first day of the Golf War announced the
4:55
Speaker 3: Strategic Petroleum Reserve release that was to calm the markets
4:58
Speaker 3: and to make sure that any sort of just option
5:00
Speaker 3: would have flow as the war continued. They didn't do
5:03
Speaker 3: it until about ten days or so. And remember many
5:06
Speaker 3: much of that oil is still yet to come online.
5:09
Speaker 3: It's going to take months for actually to dribble out Japan,
5:12
Speaker 3: many others are actually doing releases outside of the United States.
5:15
Speaker 3: The entire global economy is scrambling, and nothing says I
5:18
Speaker 3: had a plan that having to beg other countries to
5:21
Speaker 3: have to come in and to bolster the US Navy.
5:24
Speaker 3: I also think that what that does highlight is a
5:27
Speaker 3: massive humiliation for the United States at a big global
5:30
Speaker 3: strategic level.
5:31
Speaker 1: This is the United States Navy, Bluewater Navy.
5:34
Speaker 3: Entire purpose of a navy is to ensure commerce and
5:37
Speaker 3: trade on the high seas, and this is effectively a
5:40
Speaker 3: declaration we are not able to accomplish this mission without
5:43
Speaker 3: multiple other countries. It also is straining US allies to
5:48
Speaker 3: the point where we're having to pit against each other
5:51
Speaker 3: in a way where the top allies of the United
5:54
Speaker 3: States in a matter of what twenty four hours are
5:56
Speaker 3: all coming out and be like, yeah, I think you're
5:58
Speaker 3: on your own man. And what this demonstrates is the
6:01
Speaker 3: chaotic nature not only have Trump and so called like
6:03
Speaker 3: management of alliances, but it actually really calls into question
6:07
Speaker 3: the entire point of the global Empire. And you know,
6:10
Speaker 3: you really don't want to use these things until not
6:12
Speaker 3: only can they do it, but then if you're going
6:14
Speaker 3: to use it, it better damn work. And so for Iran,
6:17
Speaker 3: this tiny country which they claim not tiny but you know,
6:21
Speaker 3: in terms of their military force compared to the United States,
6:24
Speaker 3: to be able to have this threat, which just so
6:27
Speaker 3: emasculates the global empire, what does that tell you about
6:30
Speaker 3: the emperor and about the empire itself.
6:33
Speaker 1: It's an absolute humiliation on the world stage.
6:36
Speaker 2: And that's before you even have the Hoofies joining in.
6:39
Speaker 2: And I mean that's what's crazy to me too, is
6:41
Speaker 2: like we had a trial run of all this stuff
6:44
Speaker 2: with the Red Sea and the hoo Thies. Ultimately, you know,
6:47
Speaker 2: Biden infamously said, well, we're going to continue striking them.
6:50
Speaker 2: Do I think it's going to work. No, but we're
6:51
Speaker 2: going to continue doing it. Trump actually, you know, did
6:54
Speaker 2: the same thing for a while. Blue a bunch of
6:56
Speaker 2: people up realized it wasn't going to work and just
6:58
Speaker 2: sort of quietly walked away. So he should have known
7:01
Speaker 2: because we had a trial run of this, I mean
7:03
Speaker 2: same thing with the idea of regime change just coming
7:06
Speaker 2: from strategic bombing. We had a trial run of that
7:09
Speaker 2: in Gaza where we in Israel committed to genocide, blew
7:12
Speaker 2: the whole area to Smitherians and guess what Hamas didn't fall,
7:15
Speaker 2: which was a much weaker and less well entrenched organization
7:19
Speaker 2: than ultimately the Iranian regime is But I think what
7:23
Speaker 2: happened here is Trump really convinced himself and probably had
7:26
Speaker 2: people like natmia Ow and Lindsay Graham whoever in his ear,
7:29
Speaker 2: that this was going to be quick and glorious, that
7:31
Speaker 2: they could take out the Ayahtola, they had this opportunity
7:33
Speaker 2: to do it, that the whole thing. He was reportedly
7:36
Speaker 2: Cornelius Trat a Parsi telling Gulf Arab allies the whole
7:39
Speaker 2: thing would be over in four days and they would
7:41
Speaker 2: completely capitulate. So even though obviously military planners knew that
7:45
Speaker 2: there was a possibility that the straight offormance would be
7:48
Speaker 2: impacted because the Iranian's been threatening this for years and
7:50
Speaker 2: years and years, he never thought it would get to
7:53
Speaker 2: that point.
7:54
Speaker 4: And now that we are at that point.
7:55
Speaker 2: The realization has set in that actually, I mean I can't.
7:59
Speaker 2: I won't say we can't reopen it ourselves, but it
8:02
Speaker 2: would require a ground invasion, seizing the shoreline, right, you
8:07
Speaker 2: would have you know, the mountainous terrain there makes it
8:10
Speaker 2: very easy for Iranian forces to come in, you know,
8:13
Speaker 2: guerrilla warfare style, kill a bunch of our troops, take
8:16
Speaker 2: down a bunch of our equipment, and then you know,
8:18
Speaker 2: and then retreat and hide and come back and do
8:20
Speaker 2: the same thing over and over again. If we and
8:23
Speaker 2: our allies do start escorting ships through the straight off
8:26
Speaker 2: woe moves, it makes everybody involved, including these you know
8:29
Speaker 2: cargo ships, that these are just civilian you know, sailors
8:32
Speaker 2: trying to earn a living that have nothing to do
8:34
Speaker 2: with this conflict, makes them sitting ducks.
8:36
Speaker 4: So it really is an impossible situation.
8:39
Speaker 2: The only way to solve this is through some sort
8:42
Speaker 2: of negotiated end to this conflict. And you know, at
8:46
Speaker 2: this point, Iran is not going to just back away
8:48
Speaker 2: without getting something in return to ensure that they're not
8:52
Speaker 2: going to end up in this place again. So here's
8:54
Speaker 2: the latest Trump move. You know, the Wall Street Journal reporting,
8:57
Speaker 2: and this is incredible the Trump administration as soon as
8:59
Speaker 2: this week plans to announce that multiple countries have agreed
9:03
Speaker 2: to form a coalition might call it a coalition of
9:05
Speaker 2: the willing, that will escort ships through this qurridor, which
9:08
Speaker 2: runs along the Iranian coast. US officials said, listen to
9:11
Speaker 2: this last sentence. So they're still discussing whether those operations
9:15
Speaker 2: will begin before or after hostilities. Ent kind of a
9:19
Speaker 2: key point there, and to your point, you know, we've
9:21
Speaker 2: got Germany already taken a pass. Next element they're saying, yeah,
9:26
Speaker 2: we're good here.
9:27
Speaker 4: Oh thanks.
9:28
Speaker 2: We have the French similarly saying no thanks, we're going
9:31
Speaker 2: to pass. We have the Canadians saying we're good here.
9:34
Speaker 2: We had Japan come out and say no, we're not
9:36
Speaker 2: getting involved. So I don't know at this point there
9:39
Speaker 2: is no country that has raised their hand and said, yes,
9:42
Speaker 2: please allow our ships to also be sitting ducks in
9:46
Speaker 2: this preposterous quagmire disaster that you've created for yourselves and
9:50
Speaker 2: ultimately for the world.
9:52
Speaker 1: Yes, especially the Anglo sphere.
9:53
Speaker 3: So you know, there's NATO countries, but then there's who
9:56
Speaker 3: are the top US allies.
9:57
Speaker 1: It's going to be Australia, It's gonna be the UK.
9:59
Speaker 1: It's going to be can Well.
10:00
Speaker 3: Canada come out and said no UK Keir Starmer, the
10:03
Speaker 3: Prime Minister, just this morning, no, we will not be
10:06
Speaker 3: joining into a war with Iran and Australia also coming out.
10:09
Speaker 3: I mean, these are beyond even our closest allies, so
10:12
Speaker 3: called part of the Five Eyes and etc. But what
10:15
Speaker 3: that tells you is that when even those people are
10:19
Speaker 3: saying no, we're not going to be joining you, it
10:21
Speaker 3: leaves you completely out on a limb and makes it
10:24
Speaker 3: so they only have two options, some sort of escalation,
10:26
Speaker 3: a ground troop option. Currently, the internal reporting is they
10:30
Speaker 3: believe they want to try and cripple the regime by
10:32
Speaker 3: taking over carg Island, which is a possibility. Some ninety
10:35
Speaker 3: percent of Iranian oil is exported via carg Island. The other,
10:39
Speaker 3: of course, is a negotiated settlement. But to have a
10:41
Speaker 3: negotiated settlement would be of course a humiliation also on
10:45
Speaker 3: the world stage, which is why, asked Professor Robert Pape
10:47
Speaker 3: always says the natural way that this goes about is escalations.
10:51
Speaker 3: Why Trump is already inside of the escalation trap. Why
10:55
Speaker 3: don't we play a three then of Trump now threatening
10:58
Speaker 3: NATO countries. If they do don't join in this mission,
11:01
Speaker 3: let's take a lesson.
11:02
Speaker 9: I want to negotiate badly, as they should, but I
11:07
Speaker 9: don't think they're ready to do what they have to do.
11:10
Speaker 9: But I think they will be ready at some point.
11:13
Speaker 9: But we're doing very well respect to that whole situation
11:17
Speaker 9: in Iran.
11:18
Speaker 5: We are talking to other countries about working with us
11:22
Speaker 5: or the policing of being straight, and I think we
11:26
Speaker 5: get a good response and we do. That's great, and
11:29
Speaker 5: we don't that's right too. But remember as an example
11:33
Speaker 5: in many cases that NATO countries, we're always there for NATO.
11:37
Speaker 5: We're helping them with Ukraine and many it's got a
11:42
Speaker 5: notion in between us doesn't affect us, but we've helped them,
11:46
Speaker 5: and be interesting to see what country wouldn't help us
11:49
Speaker 5: with a very small endeavor, which is just keeping the
11:53
Speaker 5: straight open that my comparison is. It's small because Iran
11:58
Speaker 5: has very.
11:58
Speaker 3: Little firepower left, very small endeavor, very little firepower, so
12:03
Speaker 3: little firepower in fact, that the US Navy needs to
12:05
Speaker 3: beg NATO and all the other world powers to come
12:08
Speaker 3: in and to join us. I have been thinking though,
12:10
Speaker 3: if this war is the downfall of NATO, maybe it'd
12:13
Speaker 3: be all be worth it, But that's like a big,
12:15
Speaker 3: a bigger picture thing.
12:17
Speaker 1: It is just insane and ironic.
12:19
Speaker 3: Also, it demonstrates how unilateral action it will always come
12:23
Speaker 3: back to bite you because when you get into that
12:25
Speaker 3: escalation and now you don't have other countries who are
12:28
Speaker 3: bought into the message. It's not just our popular If
12:31
Speaker 3: you think America's population, which is ten times more brainwashed
12:34
Speaker 3: and more raw, raw and jingoistic for pro war propaganda,
12:38
Speaker 3: isn't on board with this war according to every poll
12:40
Speaker 3: that we have out there, what do you think that
12:42
Speaker 3: the European population is going to be thinking about this?
12:46
Speaker 3: And don't forget is that while our gas prices are
12:48
Speaker 3: already high. I think it's like three seventy or something
12:50
Speaker 3: right now per gallon. Go take a look at European
12:53
Speaker 3: and natural gas and petrol prices out on the continent.
12:56
Speaker 1: It's not great.
12:57
Speaker 3: There are also many of the European countries, Crystal, especially
13:00
Speaker 3: in NATO, are furious because the United States is currently
13:04
Speaker 3: issuing sanctioned waivers to Indian to any other country that
13:07
Speaker 3: wants to purchase Russian oil which is already at sea.
13:10
Speaker 3: So they are massively enriching the Kremlin at this very time.
13:13
Speaker 3: The rest of NATO only really cares about Russia and Ukraine. Okay, well,
13:17
Speaker 3: guess what this is enriching that country to a huge degree.
13:21
Speaker 3: I mean, we are pumping money into the Russian war machine.
13:24
Speaker 3: Oil is currently trading around ninety eight ninety seven dollars
13:27
Speaker 3: a barrel, the highest level in years.
13:30
Speaker 1: The Kremlin is doing backflips.
13:32
Speaker 3: They want the price to go to some one hundred
13:34
Speaker 3: and forty one sixty per barrel, which would be around
13:37
Speaker 3: five something dollars a gallon here in the United States.
13:41
Speaker 3: That is the best case scenario for them, which is
13:44
Speaker 3: why they're also giving all this intelligence to the Iranians,
13:46
Speaker 3: which we're going to spend a lot of time here
13:48
Speaker 3: talking about some of the strikes and some of the
13:51
Speaker 3: pinpoint Mortaza is going to break some of that down.
13:53
Speaker 3: There is absolutely no way that's just Iran on its own.
13:56
Speaker 3: And how can you even be mad at Russia? As
13:58
Speaker 3: Trump even said, He's like, well, it is hard to
14:01
Speaker 3: be upset because it's not like we don't give all
14:02
Speaker 3: this money to Ukraine. The one thing you say about
14:04
Speaker 3: Trump is at least he does occasionally tell the truth.
14:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean Trump is right that the Europeans
14:10
Speaker 2: are more screwed out of this than we are. Because
14:13
Speaker 2: we are a net energy exporterer. We have more tools
14:15
Speaker 2: at our disposal. You know, if he wanted to, he
14:18
Speaker 2: could say, Okay, we're not exporting any more of our oil,
14:20
Speaker 2: we're keeping it here domestically. That would cause an entire
14:24
Speaker 2: global shit show. I mean, if you think about it.
14:26
Speaker 2: For the Europeans, they were very reliant on Russian gas.
14:30
Speaker 2: Obviously they've largely cut that off. Now you've got the
14:33
Speaker 2: other primary source of their energy, which obviously the Middle
14:36
Speaker 2: East now is imperiled at best. So they are kind
14:41
Speaker 2: of screwed. And you know, I did see a report
14:44
Speaker 2: this morning Scott Bessett, Treasury Secretary, saying like, well, actually
14:47
Speaker 2: we're letting Iranian oil tankers, We're letting them, okay, transit
14:52
Speaker 2: the Straight of Hord moves to continue to supply the
14:54
Speaker 2: global oil markets, and that seems to have led to
14:57
Speaker 2: somewhat of a tick down in terms of the oil futures.
14:59
Speaker 2: And I'm talking take down to ninety six instead of
15:02
Speaker 2: ninety eight, you know, effectively. But Trump and his regime
15:07
Speaker 2: are thinking that they can effectively bully our allies in
15:10
Speaker 2: the Europeans in particular into taking on this task after
15:14
Speaker 2: we created this whole entire mess. And they may be right,
15:18
Speaker 2: because the Europeans are sort of embarrassingly, you know, embarrassing
15:22
Speaker 2: at this point and weak, and they're kind of screwed,
15:24
Speaker 2: et cetera.
15:25
Speaker 4: But thus far.
15:27
Speaker 2: They don't seem too willing to want to join in
15:30
Speaker 2: this one. You've got you and Ambassador Mike Waltz, who
15:33
Speaker 2: was saying that not only do we request that our
15:36
Speaker 2: allies get involved here, we demand it.
15:38
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to that.
15:40
Speaker 7: Is he hoping that those countries are going to send
15:42
Speaker 7: ships or have they committed to sending ships?
15:44
Speaker 1: And how soon will those naval escorts be ready?
15:48
Speaker 10: Well, I'll leave those, you know, those conversations to him.
15:51
Speaker 10: The conversations are ongoing. I think there's an important point
15:54
Speaker 10: that's getting you know, kind of missed in the conversation,
15:57
Speaker 10: and that eighty percent of the oil coming out of
16:00
Speaker 10: the golf heads to Asia, only about seven to eight
16:04
Speaker 10: percent heads to the Western Hemisphere. And to your point
16:08
Speaker 10: on escorts, look back in the eighties under the tanker wars.
16:13
Speaker 10: Then the last time Iran tried to constrain global energy supplies.
16:18
Speaker 10: You had French, United Kingdom, even Soviet Union forces in
16:23
Speaker 10: their escorting their tankers out that were heading to their markets.
16:27
Speaker 10: And I think that's what President Trump is calling upon
16:30
Speaker 10: the world, saying, the entire world is affected. Iran can't
16:33
Speaker 10: hold your economy's hostage. And we certainly welcome, encourage and
16:38
Speaker 10: even demand their participation.
16:41
Speaker 4: Welcome and courage and even demand.
16:44
Speaker 2: And you know, when you put out some rhetoric like
16:46
Speaker 2: that to your point about the weakness, and then after
16:50
Speaker 2: those comments are made, the UK comes out and says, sorry,
16:54
Speaker 2: you're on your own for this one.
16:55
Speaker 4: Again the level of weakness.
16:56
Speaker 2: And this is really everything for a global empire, you know,
16:59
Speaker 2: dec finding global empire like the US, everything is about
17:03
Speaker 2: maintaining the facade. Everything is about saving face. And once
17:07
Speaker 2: that image is punctured, and once you're proven to be
17:10
Speaker 2: a paper tiger, and once the rest of the world says,
17:13
Speaker 2: you know, we've got our own ideas about things, that
17:15
Speaker 2: is the beginning of the end.
17:17
Speaker 8: Yeah.
17:18
Speaker 3: I think it's really I mean, yeah, I didn't want
17:20
Speaker 3: to see it. Unfortunately, it's highly predictable. This is like
17:23
Speaker 3: classic empire behavior. Let's put the German one up there
17:26
Speaker 3: on the screen. For example, here was Chancellor merce reacting
17:31
Speaker 3: skeptical about expanding any EU operation in the Straits of Hormuz.
17:37
Speaker 3: What they talked about specifically, sorry, this was the Foreign minister.
17:40
Speaker 3: He said he was skeptical about potential widening of the
17:42
Speaker 3: mission in the Straits of Hormuz.
17:44
Speaker 1: We should be clear.
17:45
Speaker 3: I mean, they might make some token sort of announcement
17:48
Speaker 3: that they will help ensure navigation in the Strait of
17:51
Speaker 3: Hormuz after a cessation of hostilities, or Trump might take
17:56
Speaker 3: it as a victory that they'll say that they'll put
17:58
Speaker 3: their ships. You know, some were near the Straits of Hormuz.
18:01
Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, if they're not
18:03
Speaker 3: sailing through, if they're not joining some sort of military
18:07
Speaker 3: action that's happening in the Straits of Hormoves in the
18:09
Speaker 3: way the United States Navy is currently being floated, that
18:12
Speaker 3: is a real screw you. And remember, as Crystal said,
18:15
Speaker 3: I mean these countries are massively they have massive more
18:18
Speaker 3: at stake here than just the United States. Yes, in
18:20
Speaker 3: a drastic situation, we could just do an export ban.
18:24
Speaker 1: Ninety percent of.
18:25
Speaker 3: Japan's oil comes from the Straits of hormoves comes or sorry,
18:28
Speaker 3: it comes from the Middle East. Forty percent of China's
18:31
Speaker 3: oil comes from the Middle East. The Europeans, it's not
18:34
Speaker 3: just an oil problem they have. It's really natural gas.
18:36
Speaker 3: Because of Katar So Katar's natural gas. Their LNG has
18:40
Speaker 3: been massively important to their ability to try and wean
18:43
Speaker 3: somewhat off of Russian gas since the twenty twenty two
18:46
Speaker 3: Russian invasion of Ukraine. But you put all this together
18:50
Speaker 3: and the bottleneck of everything that's currently happening, and you
18:52
Speaker 3: are already seeing. Remember it's not just oil, it's not
18:55
Speaker 3: even just gas. We're also talking about helium. We're talking
18:59
Speaker 3: about fertile we're talking about uia. We talked a little
19:02
Speaker 3: bit about that earlier. I was just looking this morning.
19:04
Speaker 3: China has already released a strategic fertilizer reserve. I didn't
19:08
Speaker 3: even know they had such a thing. Smart behavior, by
19:11
Speaker 3: the way, real country behavior. Guess which country major economy
19:14
Speaker 3: doesn't have a strategic fertilizer reserve or any reserve of
19:18
Speaker 3: any kind. The United States, which means our farmers are
19:21
Speaker 3: going to be massively massively at stake of the global market.
19:25
Speaker 3: And also China and the US have an upcoming Trump
19:29
Speaker 3: and China have an upcoming summit which is supposed to
19:31
Speaker 3: take place at the end of the month, and the
19:33
Speaker 3: President is even saying that he may delay to any
19:36
Speaker 3: sort of that summit or demand Chinese participation in some
19:39
Speaker 3: sort of horror moves clearing operation if that summit were
19:42
Speaker 3: to continue to go forward.
19:43
Speaker 1: They don't care at all.
19:44
Speaker 3: This is good for them, you know, there's nothing that
19:47
Speaker 3: they would love more than to have the United States
19:49
Speaker 3: embroiled in a week's or a year's long war in Iran,
19:52
Speaker 3: which is they get all their interceptor they can.
19:55
Speaker 1: They're watched in those satellites.
19:57
Speaker 3: I saw pictures come out of the PLA, the People's
19:59
Speaker 3: Little Army headquarters where they're just monitoring the situation with
20:03
Speaker 3: these giant monitors and maps. And they're just sitting there
20:06
Speaker 3: watching these missiles go up, calculating trajectories, looking at what's working,
20:11
Speaker 3: what's not working. Who, by the way, controls the global
20:14
Speaker 3: drone supply parts? Where do you think it all comes from?
20:16
Speaker 3: Comes from China? All of these electronics. They're just sitting
20:20
Speaker 3: there quietly and preparing. Meanwhile, there's increased military activity in
20:24
Speaker 3: the Taiwan Strait just to show you that. You know,
20:27
Speaker 3: they're pushing their proxies as well. Their main proxy is
20:30
Speaker 3: North Korea. North Korea just launched a blistic missile two
20:32
Speaker 3: days ago over Japan. They're freaking out in East Asia.
20:36
Speaker 3: South Korean press is all over this. President Trump apparently
20:39
Speaker 3: had to hold some therapy session phone call with the
20:42
Speaker 3: President of South Korea, who is furious obviously about the
20:45
Speaker 3: removal of that batteries. Like, the global order itself is
20:49
Speaker 3: very very shaky already as a result of this war.
20:51
Speaker 1: Should we get to Kevin hassit or do it?
20:53
Speaker 4: Yea, So let's go, No, let's go.
20:55
Speaker 2: Well, just one quick thing on that, you know, to
20:57
Speaker 2: your point about sort of like the global order is
20:59
Speaker 2: shake and in a lot of ways, the global order
21:02
Speaker 2: is being determined as we speak, you know, depending on
21:05
Speaker 2: how this war shakes out, how long it goes, how
21:07
Speaker 2: damaging it is to the US, how damaging is to
21:09
Speaker 2: the world, how damaging it is to the Empire, what
21:11
Speaker 2: the golf countries do after this, And in that way,
21:14
Speaker 2: it truly is a world war.
21:15
Speaker 8: You know.
21:15
Speaker 2: World war is not necessarily about like the number of
21:18
Speaker 2: people killed or exactly the number of countries that are
21:20
Speaker 2: involved in hot military action right now, if you look
21:24
Speaker 2: around the world, you have a whole lot of countries
21:26
Speaker 2: in these interrelated hot war conflicts. But in any case,
21:31
Speaker 2: what a world war really is about is about what
21:33
Speaker 2: the world order is going to look like coming out
21:36
Speaker 2: of that. And I think from that definition we are
21:38
Speaker 2: already in one. Let's go ahead and take a listen
21:40
Speaker 2: to Kevin Hassett here. Very noteworthy someone else made this
21:45
Speaker 2: point on Twitter that the administry, you know, this wasn't
21:47
Speaker 2: Marco Rubio coming out. You didn't have the you know,
21:50
Speaker 2: the military brass. It was largely like the economic guys
21:54
Speaker 2: who were sent down on the Sunday shows to make
21:56
Speaker 2: the case, which tells you a few things. I mean,
21:58
Speaker 2: it tells you maybe the number one thing that they're
22:01
Speaker 2: concerned about is really the markets, and that is an
22:04
Speaker 2: intentional Iranian plan. This is as much about the Iranians
22:08
Speaker 2: waging economic warfare as it is about the military conflict.
22:13
Speaker 2: They see that dimension as being the most crucial because
22:16
Speaker 2: they need to exact that pain on America to force
22:21
Speaker 2: them to accept their terms and make sure that they
22:23
Speaker 2: don't end up in this situation again. So Kevin Hassett,
22:26
Speaker 2: who's the chief Economic advisor for Trump gets asked about so, hey,
22:30
Speaker 2: if this goes on for months, like, what is this
22:32
Speaker 2: going to mean for the economy? Let's go and take
22:34
Speaker 2: a listen to how he responds.
22:36
Speaker 3: If this disruption lasts for months, can the US economy
22:40
Speaker 3: absorb the shock without a recession?
22:44
Speaker 11: First of all, it's not going to last for months.
22:47
Speaker 11: President Trump's team has brief dou that it's going to
22:49
Speaker 11: be four to six weeks beginning two weeks ago, and
22:52
Speaker 11: that we're ahead of schedule.
22:54
Speaker 8: And so second, if it did.
22:56
Speaker 11: Last for a long time, it wouldn't really do a
22:58
Speaker 11: lot of harm to the USA economy. Now, certainly there'd
23:01
Speaker 11: be pocket book issues that we'd have to address, but
23:05
Speaker 11: the bottom line is that the US produces so much
23:07
Speaker 11: oil that you can't really get GDP to go negative
23:11
Speaker 11: with an oil shock the way you could in the seventies.
23:13
Speaker 11: So we're in a very strong position. But it's really
23:16
Speaker 11: heightened the strength by the fact that we've got a
23:18
Speaker 11: productivity boom from artificial intelligence, we've got a capital spending
23:22
Speaker 11: boom because of the Big Beautiful Bill, and we've got
23:25
Speaker 11: incomes growing the fastest we've seen since back around twenty
23:28
Speaker 11: eighteen and so all the fundamentals of our economy are
23:31
Speaker 11: really really strong. If a rand thinks that they're going
23:34
Speaker 11: to get President Trump to back down because they're going
23:36
Speaker 11: to make our economy week, then they just don't understand economics.
23:40
Speaker 2: So Zary basically just dodges there like, well, it's not
23:43
Speaker 2: going to last that long.
23:44
Speaker 4: They promise this is not going to last. Oh really,
23:45
Speaker 4: so how's it going to end?
23:46
Speaker 3: Because that it's worth even grappling with what he said.
23:49
Speaker 3: He said our GDP won't be affected, and he's not wrong. Yes,
23:53
Speaker 3: Exxon is going to do great. Okay of Midland, my
23:56
Speaker 3: home state of Texas, Houston, it's going to be a
23:59
Speaker 3: fun time, all right to be a club owner in
24:01
Speaker 3: the city of Houston. It's going to be super fun
24:04
Speaker 3: to own a Ford dealer out in West Texas or
24:07
Speaker 3: in the Panhandle or in Tech you know, in Lubbock
24:10
Speaker 3: or any of these places. That doesn't mean that it's
24:12
Speaker 3: going to be good for the rest of us. Already,
24:15
Speaker 3: gas is three seventy about a gallon nationally. Let's think
24:18
Speaker 3: about the scenarios where it's like four fifty five dollars
24:22
Speaker 3: a gallon. Let's say even average, that's I would say,
24:24
Speaker 3: one of the worst case scenarios is around five dollars
24:26
Speaker 3: a gallon average, that would be probably six fifty seven
24:29
Speaker 3: dollars a gallon in California. That is a disaster. I
24:33
Speaker 3: think for the more normal American pocketbooks. That also translates
24:37
Speaker 3: into demand destruction. That's what our friend Rory has talked about,
24:40
Speaker 3: where when gas starts to tick up that high, people
24:42
Speaker 3: are like, all right, I'm just not going anywhere, you know,
24:44
Speaker 3: I'm not driving to my uncle's house or something like that.
24:48
Speaker 1: Don't forget we.
24:48
Speaker 3: Got the July fourth holiday in a few months. Are
24:50
Speaker 3: people going to be driving?
24:51
Speaker 1: Right?
24:51
Speaker 3: So these are times usually when people are always traveling
24:54
Speaker 3: who are either driving. Not to mention jet fuel, jet
24:57
Speaker 3: fuel prices in Asia, I think in Singapore jet fuel
25:00
Speaker 3: going for two hundred dollars per barrel right now, because
25:02
Speaker 3: it's something about the specific refine. I'm not an expert,
25:04
Speaker 3: but the experts that I have been reading, I've been
25:07
Speaker 3: warning that this is going to directly translate into air traffic. Also,
25:11
Speaker 3: there's been just the war, the actual disruption. So while
25:14
Speaker 3: we were all sleeping last night, a bunch of flights
25:17
Speaker 3: which were on route to Dubai had to turn around
25:20
Speaker 3: in the middle of the air and actually go back
25:22
Speaker 3: to where they came from because of a huge fire
25:25
Speaker 3: that broke out.
25:26
Speaker 1: Remember, Dubai is one of.
25:26
Speaker 3: The busiest airport, maybe the busiest airport in the entire world.
25:30
Speaker 3: They handled tens of thousands of passengers per day even
25:33
Speaker 3: on a limited schedule, so already they had to cancel
25:36
Speaker 3: flights for a prolonged period. They're warning people do not
25:39
Speaker 3: come to the airport. They have immense censorship in the UAE,
25:41
Speaker 3: so I haven't even seen any real videos that have
25:44
Speaker 3: been coming out as a result. But just think about,
25:46
Speaker 3: you know, the danger to air traffic and one of
25:48
Speaker 3: the more busiest parts of the entire region, guitar airways.
25:51
Speaker 1: Many of these play these.
25:52
Speaker 3: Are gateways to Asia, so this will have demand destruction
25:54
Speaker 3: at every level from the war and to oil. So
25:57
Speaker 3: I think last thing, sorry, go ahead, I.
26:00
Speaker 2: Was just going to standing that airport is also just
26:01
Speaker 2: like very crucial to the economy of the UAE. You know,
26:05
Speaker 2: it's billions of dollars every day in revenue that comes
26:09
Speaker 2: through there. And I did see images that purported to
26:12
Speaker 2: be of fuel depot near the airport on fire. After
26:15
Speaker 2: you know, presumably in Irani and drone strike. So yeah,
26:19
Speaker 2: their economies are still you know, being messed with in
26:21
Speaker 2: a way that is probably going to be very difficult
26:24
Speaker 2: for them to recover because their brand is being destroyed.
26:27
Speaker 2: The Iranian Foreign Minister went into a couple of interviews
26:30
Speaker 2: yesterday as well, and he said, hey, the straight ofform moves, it's.
26:34
Speaker 4: Open for anyone.
26:36
Speaker 2: We want it to be open for It's not open
26:38
Speaker 2: for the US and their allies, but you know for
26:41
Speaker 2: other countries. Sure, straightform moves is open. So let's take
26:44
Speaker 2: a listen to that.
26:45
Speaker 5: Well.
26:45
Speaker 12: As a matter of fact, this straight up hormones is open.
26:48
Speaker 12: It is only closed to the tankers and ships belong
26:54
Speaker 12: to the to our enemies, to those who are attacking
26:57
Speaker 12: US and their allies. Others are free to pass. Of course,
27:02
Speaker 12: many of them prefer not because of their security concerns.
27:07
Speaker 8: This this has nothing to do with us.
27:09
Speaker 12: And at the same time, there are many tankers and
27:12
Speaker 12: ships who are passing through the state of homost and
27:17
Speaker 12: I can say that the strait is not closed, but
27:21
Speaker 12: it is only closed to American is really you know,
27:25
Speaker 12: ships and tankers and not to others.
27:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, we do know though that Obviously, traffic through
27:34
Speaker 2: the Straight of Homos is greatly, greatly, greatly diminished because
27:38
Speaker 2: you know, even if you are not US is really
27:40
Speaker 2: a flag tanker owned tanker, You're probably not feeling real
27:44
Speaker 2: safe going through there at this point. And the insurance
27:48
Speaker 2: rates have just astronomically skyrocketed. I mean, a bunch of
27:52
Speaker 2: insurers are just like, yeah, we're not we're not ensuring
27:54
Speaker 2: Actually your voyage through this area.
27:59
Speaker 1: Now turn just to oil.
28:01
Speaker 3: A lot of discussion around what the price of gas
28:03
Speaker 3: is going to look like. Whose fault it is? The
28:05
Speaker 3: Vice President has an idea, it's Joe Biden. Let's take
28:08
Speaker 3: a listen.
28:09
Speaker 7: All this conversation happens where Joe Biden left us in
28:14
Speaker 7: a terrible situation. And the reason why gas prices are
28:19
Speaker 7: where they are today is because of Donald Trump's work
28:23
Speaker 7: to get them lower, because then the Biden administration they
28:26
Speaker 7: were crazy high.
28:27
Speaker 8: The gas prices.
28:28
Speaker 7: We're seeing today are nothing like what we saw at
28:31
Speaker 7: the peak of the Biden administration because the President has
28:33
Speaker 7: set us up for energy dominance. And one of the
28:36
Speaker 7: lessons we all have to take away, frankly, every time
28:39
Speaker 7: we get involved in anything overseas, whether it's in the
28:43
Speaker 7: Middle East or anywhere else. The thing we got to
28:45
Speaker 7: take away from it is energy dominance and energy independence.
28:49
Speaker 7: Rely on our own people, rely on our own energy.
28:52
Speaker 3: Biden's price hike, remember Putin's pice price hike. Let's go
28:55
Speaker 3: with Biden god hike. I forgot about that.
28:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's that's buried in the PTSD files. Let's
29:01
Speaker 1: see how that works out.
29:02
Speaker 3: I think for the administration, they're going to blame Joe
29:05
Speaker 3: Biden after a war that they literally chose to enter.
29:08
Speaker 1: Should definitely work.
29:09
Speaker 3: But if you want to know the real disaster scenario,
29:11
Speaker 3: it's this interview with Secretary of Energy Christopher Wright where
29:15
Speaker 3: he was on television yesterday and they said, should Americans
29:18
Speaker 3: prepare for two hundred dollars per barrel, which would be
29:21
Speaker 3: around seven dollars a gallon at gas.
29:24
Speaker 1: Here's what he had to say.
29:25
Speaker 4: The price of a barrel of oil closed above.
29:29
Speaker 13: One hundred and three dollars on Friday, and the Iranians
29:33
Speaker 13: are warning of prices hitting two one hundred dollars a barrel.
29:37
Speaker 13: Mister Secretary, should Americans be bracing for should they be
29:42
Speaker 13: worried that this war will actually drive the price of
29:44
Speaker 13: oil above two hundred dollars a barrel.
29:49
Speaker 14: So Iran for forty seven years has called the United
29:52
Speaker 14: States the Great Satan. So because they call us the
29:55
Speaker 14: Great Satan, I don't think we are the Great Satan.
29:58
Speaker 8: In fact, clearly we're not.
30:00
Speaker 14: I don't listen much to Iranian projections of what's going
30:02
Speaker 14: to happen, but there is disruptions of very important waterway.
30:08
Speaker 14: It's I would pay no attention to what Iran says,
30:11
Speaker 14: but there is a lot of energy that flows through
30:14
Speaker 14: the straits of poor Moves, and depending upon the timing
30:17
Speaker 14: and the manner in which this conflict comes to an end,
30:20
Speaker 14: we're going to see some elevated pricing until we get
30:23
Speaker 14: there where it's going to go. We have done many,
30:26
Speaker 14: many actions to mitigate that price rise.
30:29
Speaker 3: YEP. So the energy sector is not runing out two
30:31
Speaker 3: hundred dollars a barrel, which, as I just said, roughly
30:33
Speaker 3: around like six something maybe seven dollars per gallon. I
30:36
Speaker 3: don't even know what they'd be paying in California already.
30:38
Speaker 3: California this morning is at five point fifty eight gallons.
30:41
Speaker 3: So I mean, if the national average it's three seventy,
30:43
Speaker 3: it's five to fifty out in California. If the national
30:46
Speaker 3: average is like six to fifty, I don't even know
30:47
Speaker 3: what that would mean. That would be completely insane for
30:50
Speaker 3: the entire country. Let's go and put b three up
30:52
Speaker 3: here on the screen. The current price of oil. This
30:55
Speaker 3: is right when we are filming the show. It's right
30:57
Speaker 3: around the ninety seven dollars a barrel. Things are moving
31:00
Speaker 3: a little bit as of this morning, just making sure
31:03
Speaker 3: to make it totally up to date. A few drops,
31:06
Speaker 3: maybe ninety five, but roughly in that range. I think
31:09
Speaker 3: Brent remains around two one hundred dollars per barrel. Some
31:13
Speaker 3: of this is movement on the statements that were made
31:15
Speaker 3: by the Energy Secretary, or sorry by the Treasury Secretary Crystal,
31:19
Speaker 3: as you said, who this morning was saying that they
31:21
Speaker 3: would allow the transit of Iranian oil to continue through
31:24
Speaker 3: the Straits of horm moves. But it just demonstrates how
31:27
Speaker 3: they're really caught in a complete bind. If they want
31:29
Speaker 3: to choke the enemy off completely with Iran, they could
31:32
Speaker 3: invade carg Island, they could take over their oil refineries,
31:35
Speaker 3: they could block all Iranian oil shipments.
31:38
Speaker 1: But what would that do.
31:38
Speaker 3: It would dramatically continue to restrict the amount of supply
31:42
Speaker 3: that is happening. And at the same time, the Iranians,
31:44
Speaker 3: while yes, they had their carg Island facility hit, they
31:47
Speaker 3: then are reaching out and hitting UAA facilities, UAE facilities
31:50
Speaker 3: for their ways that they try to export oil that's
31:53
Speaker 3: outside of the straits of horror moves. So everybody is
31:56
Speaker 3: locked in a place where the US and the global
32:00
Speaker 3: the allies, coalition of the willing you might even call it,
32:03
Speaker 3: or maybe the non willing in this case, the coalition
32:05
Speaker 3: of the non willing.
32:06
Speaker 1: Well, they don't want the price of oil to continue
32:08
Speaker 1: to go up.
32:09
Speaker 3: The Iranians do so they'll take the money that the
32:11
Speaker 3: US will allow them to have, but at the same
32:13
Speaker 3: time they want the price to continue to spiral. So
32:16
Speaker 3: we are in very very opposed interest in both of
32:19
Speaker 3: these respects. And it's also demonstrating every time the US
32:23
Speaker 3: basically allows Iranian oil to go through or is panicking
32:27
Speaker 3: about the price of oil, it actually illustrates that the
32:29
Speaker 3: Iranian strategy of weaponizing oil price is working. And of
32:33
Speaker 3: course it has to work because the global population is
32:36
Speaker 3: not built into this, it is not bought into this,
32:38
Speaker 3: while the Iranian population, at least from what we've seen
32:41
Speaker 3: so far, they're not rising up.
32:42
Speaker 1: They're fine with the war.
32:43
Speaker 3: In fact, they probably support it, or at least some
32:45
Speaker 3: of them do in the streets of Tehran and others
32:48
Speaker 3: not ai as the President said, which we'll get to
32:50
Speaker 3: in a little bit. And that's the problem that we
32:53
Speaker 3: have right now. It's why they're in a better strategic
32:55
Speaker 3: position even though they have taken such a beating so far.
32:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love how Treasury Secretary's got vestent frames. It
33:02
Speaker 2: is like we're allowing the Iranian tankers to go through.
33:05
Speaker 2: It's like they're calling the shots here, buddy. Now, of
33:07
Speaker 2: course we could blow them up if we wanted to,
33:09
Speaker 2: but yeah, that would just harm us and our allies
33:12
Speaker 2: even more so. The you know, these strategic thinking are
33:15
Speaker 2: around the straight of hoom moves is sort of based
33:17
Speaker 2: on this outdated idea that Iran, if it was going
33:21
Speaker 2: to close it down, would have to close it down
33:23
Speaker 2: for everyone, and that that would harm Iran as well.
33:26
Speaker 2: You know, as long as their tankers are going and
33:28
Speaker 2: largely by the way to China, they're still able to
33:32
Speaker 2: earn the revenue that they need to you know, continue
33:34
Speaker 2: to produce drones and do what they need to do,
33:37
Speaker 2: and things could get much worse. I mean, they could
33:39
Speaker 2: escalate the two more attacks on oil infrastructure. They could
33:44
Speaker 2: escalate to more attacks on desalination plants. This is a
33:48
Speaker 2: region that is not self sufficient and self sustaining in
33:50
Speaker 2: any way. I mean, they require those desalination plants, They
33:54
Speaker 2: require mass imports of food. They are not self sustaining
33:57
Speaker 2: in terms of their you know, agriculture. So there are
34:00
Speaker 2: a lot of vulnerable, vulnerable choke points here. And this
34:03
Speaker 2: is how bad things are. Even the oil executives are like, yo,
34:08
Speaker 2: this is not this is not going to be a
34:10
Speaker 2: good thing. Put this Wall Street Journal report up on
34:12
Speaker 2: the screen. Oil industry warns Trump administration that fuel crunch
34:17
Speaker 2: will likely worsen. American oil executives delivered a bleak message
34:22
Speaker 2: to Trump officials in recent days. The energy crisis the
34:25
Speaker 2: IRN war has leashed, unleashed, is likely to get worse.
34:28
Speaker 2: In a series of White House meetings Wednesday and recent
34:31
Speaker 2: conversations with Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Bergram,
34:36
Speaker 2: the CEOs of Exonmobile, Chevron and Conco Phillips warned that
34:41
Speaker 2: the disruption of energy flows out of the vital straight
34:43
Speaker 2: ofform miswaterway would continue to create volatility in global energy markets,
34:47
Speaker 2: according to people familiar with the matter. In response to
34:50
Speaker 2: questions from the officials, they said oil prices could rise
34:52
Speaker 2: past current elevated levels if speculators unexpectedly build bid up prices,
34:57
Speaker 2: and that markets could see a supply crunch of refined products.
35:00
Speaker 2: Chevron CEO Mike Worth and Konico Philips CEO Ryan Lance
35:03
Speaker 2: also conveyed their concerns about the scale of the disruption
35:07
Speaker 2: because here's the thing. Well, yes, it's great for the
35:09
Speaker 2: prices go up, blah blah blah. Then they get worried
35:12
Speaker 2: about well, wait a second, what if people start buying evs.
35:17
Speaker 2: What if people start changing their habits and it lessens
35:20
Speaker 2: the global demand for fossil fuel products like permanently, then
35:26
Speaker 2: that creates a problem for them. So that's why they
35:28
Speaker 2: get uncomfortable even when the price of oil goes too high,
35:32
Speaker 2: because then you can get these permanent ships and consumer behavior.
35:36
Speaker 2: And as a side note, you know outside of the
35:38
Speaker 2: US where we're effectively banned from being able to buy
35:41
Speaker 2: Chinese EV's, which are superior in every way to the
35:44
Speaker 2: domestic evs that are produced here, which I think we
35:46
Speaker 2: can both attest to being happy EV owners, but the
35:50
Speaker 2: rest of the world they're going to buy Chinese evs.
35:53
Speaker 2: So this idea that oh, this is brilliant forty chess,
35:57
Speaker 2: and what this Iran war is really aiming at is
35:59
Speaker 2: hobbling China, perhaps hobbling China and Russia. Nothing could be
36:03
Speaker 2: further from the truth, because these countries, first of all,
36:07
Speaker 2: have been thinking more long term and strategically, China in particular,
36:12
Speaker 2: you know, for Russia, obviously, we talked about how the
36:14
Speaker 2: waivers are now being granted for Russia to solve their
36:17
Speaker 2: oil to India and other places at an elevated premium price.
36:22
Speaker 2: Not to mention, guess what, We're not going to be
36:25
Speaker 2: able to send much of to Ukraine, much of anything,
36:28
Speaker 2: because our munitions and our intercept all that stuff is
36:30
Speaker 2: being shipped over to the Middle East, and our stockpiles
36:33
Speaker 2: are running low. So we're not going to have much
36:35
Speaker 2: to be able to contribute to the Ukraine war. And China,
36:38
Speaker 2: of course, they love to see us just you know,
36:40
Speaker 2: bogged down, and they're able to see all of our
36:42
Speaker 2: weak points and where the vulnerabilities are, and they can
36:45
Speaker 2: provide their intel or whatever resources they're providing to run
36:48
Speaker 2: and just sit back and watch this all play out.
36:53
Speaker 3: This is why the five D chest narrative around China
36:56
Speaker 3: is preposterous. They are doing very well already outside of
37:01
Speaker 3: this crisis. They get to learn and so first they
37:03
Speaker 3: got to study all of our financial sanctions against Russia,
37:06
Speaker 3: which of course they were a huge beneficiary of. Now
37:09
Speaker 3: they get to study militarily, how the United States is
37:11
Speaker 3: even capable in the year twenty twenty six. Look at
37:14
Speaker 3: all the interceptors, look at the radars, look at the
37:16
Speaker 3: drone techs. See exactly where it's all vulnerable, how exactly
37:20
Speaker 3: they would want to pilot it.
37:21
Speaker 1: And of course they have what two.
37:22
Speaker 3: Hundred and fifty three one hundred times the production base
37:25
Speaker 3: and military capacity of the country of Iran. And so
37:28
Speaker 3: they're just sitting there biding their time this entire time. Now,
37:32
Speaker 3: let's go to B five please and put this up
37:34
Speaker 3: here on the screen. This was a recent interview that
37:37
Speaker 3: Trump gave to NBC News. He says that the US
37:40
Speaker 3: may hit Iran's carg Island again just for fun. Trump
37:44
Speaker 3: told the NBC News broadcaster on Saturday, US strikes totally
37:48
Speaker 3: demolished much of the oil export hub not true, and
37:51
Speaker 3: warned of more attacks on the island. What they did
37:53
Speaker 3: demolish were Iranian military sites on card Island. He says,
37:57
Speaker 3: we may hit it a few more times just for fun.
38:00
Speaker 3: The remarks with American escalation for Trump, who previously said
38:02
Speaker 3: they are targeting only military sites on Carg Island, as
38:06
Speaker 3: they say now.
38:07
Speaker 1: The way that I had.
38:07
Speaker 3: This explains to men, was on the phone with somebody
38:09
Speaker 3: recently who has a little bit of an idea about
38:11
Speaker 3: what's going on. And this falls exactly into Robert Pape's
38:16
Speaker 3: entire escalation trap theory. What they need to do is
38:20
Speaker 3: to change the status quo. Right, the status quo was bad,
38:24
Speaker 3: So how do you change the status quo? You only
38:26
Speaker 3: have two options. One is to have a negotiated solution.
38:29
Speaker 3: The other is to come up with all sorts of
38:31
Speaker 3: kakamami schemes about how maybe this one, the big one,
38:34
Speaker 3: will change the calculus of the enemy. So that's why
38:37
Speaker 3: they hit the military sites on Carg Island. They were like, Hey,
38:40
Speaker 3: we're going to hit this so that we can come
38:41
Speaker 3: in and we can get it if we want to.
38:43
Speaker 3: They say, okay, well, if you do, come and get it.
38:45
Speaker 3: We're going to turn it into a death trap for
38:47
Speaker 3: all of the people who are there. So, yeah, we're
38:48
Speaker 3: going to pay. Our economy will seriously pay, but you're
38:51
Speaker 3: going to pay.
38:51
Speaker 8: Two.
38:52
Speaker 3: Now, which one of us do you think is going
38:53
Speaker 3: to hold out longer? Because they're already going to be
38:55
Speaker 3: transforming their entire nation into a total war economy, one
38:59
Speaker 3: where everything go down, things get nationalized, sees, you knows,
39:02
Speaker 3: the concept of even like money becomes basically, you know, irrelevant.
39:06
Speaker 3: In his total war scenario, they're just going to go
39:08
Speaker 3: and seize whatever they want. Obviously they would still just
39:11
Speaker 3: have to outlast the United States. But the problem is
39:14
Speaker 3: this magical thinking scenario is that the military is currently
39:17
Speaker 3: selling to Donald Trump. That's where the carg Island stuff
39:19
Speaker 3: comes from. They're like, oh, well, we hit all their
39:21
Speaker 3: missile sites, but now we have to go and hit
39:23
Speaker 3: this particular one, and then what's next. Oh, well, we
39:26
Speaker 3: need to go in. We need to seize the island.
39:28
Speaker 3: Because if we seize the island, it'll cut them off,
39:30
Speaker 3: but of course they'll be able to respond to us.
39:32
Speaker 3: It's the same thing with the nuclear sites. The nuclear
39:34
Speaker 3: sites I actually think are the real problem in this
39:37
Speaker 3: entire in this entire war, because the easiest way for
39:41
Speaker 3: Trump to say, to declare victory would just be to
39:44
Speaker 3: have some crazy raid that goes in and sees it.
39:47
Speaker 3: He can just pull out and say, Okay, we're done,
39:49
Speaker 3: We've neutralized them forever. The issue is is that because
39:52
Speaker 3: we bomb those nuclear sites and it's under several hundred
39:55
Speaker 3: feet of rubble and it's in a tunnel, is to
39:56
Speaker 3: go and get it. They know exactly where you're coming.
39:59
Speaker 3: You can't just se small team in the dead of
40:01
Speaker 3: night because they know you're gonna be there, and they're
40:02
Speaker 3: going to arm the entire area. So then you have
40:05
Speaker 3: to send in a bunch of people to secure the area.
40:06
Speaker 3: It might even take weeks or months to excavate the rubble,
40:09
Speaker 3: which means an occupation. Of course, they're gonna be sitting
40:11
Speaker 3: ducks for anybody who wants to attack them, which means
40:13
Speaker 3: you've got to have a big perimeter. And so there's
40:15
Speaker 3: all these magical thinking scenarios. Each one of them means
40:19
Speaker 3: that each one of them is about changing the status quo.
40:22
Speaker 3: But we've already shown our hand, right, We've bombed, we
40:24
Speaker 3: killed the Ayatola, We've bombed all these missile sites, they
40:27
Speaker 3: still are able to launch drones, and so the you know,
40:30
Speaker 3: the final option is just continue to keep doing what
40:33
Speaker 3: we're doing. But that's a nightmare for all of us
40:35
Speaker 3: at one hundred dollars a barrow for oil and high
40:37
Speaker 3: gas prices and economic contraction, maybe even a global depression,
40:40
Speaker 3: and of course the destruction of US credibility. So we
40:43
Speaker 3: only have bad options that are in front of us
40:45
Speaker 3: right now. And Trump his information environment, I mean, we'll
40:48
Speaker 3: talk about this later.
40:49
Speaker 1: He's like praising Mark Levin.
40:50
Speaker 3: It's not good, right, and all he wants to hear
40:53
Speaker 3: are all these magical thinking scenarios where this time we
40:56
Speaker 3: can do it right. Just if we bomb this, it'll
40:59
Speaker 3: change things on the ground. That's exactly what happened in Vietnam.
41:02
Speaker 3: That's the problem.
41:03
Speaker 4: Yeah.
41:03
Speaker 2: Well, the Carck Island thing you Atrita is that's something
41:05
Speaker 2: really interesting to me. When I talked to him on Saturday,
41:08
Speaker 2: A great interview, you guys should I'll go and check
41:10
Speaker 2: that out if you haven't already. He was like, what
41:13
Speaker 2: the Iranians are going to take note of is that
41:15
Speaker 2: Trump did not bomb the oil infrastructure on carg Island.
41:20
Speaker 2: He made a lot of noise and a lot of
41:22
Speaker 2: bluster about, you know, how hard he was going to
41:24
Speaker 2: hit the island, and then he just targets the military installations.
41:28
Speaker 2: They will read weakness into that because it shows that
41:32
Speaker 2: he is unwilling to damage the oil infrastructure that's going
41:36
Speaker 2: to cause more economic problems for him, and that is
41:38
Speaker 2: the area of the war that they are laser focused on,
41:41
Speaker 2: how do we cause economic problems? So it showed to
41:44
Speaker 2: them that the strategy was effectively working that Trump was
41:48
Speaker 2: unwilling to go that far and damage those oil facilities
41:54
Speaker 2: because of what the reverberations would be. He is afraid
41:57
Speaker 2: of that market turmoil.
41:58
Speaker 4: Again.
41:59
Speaker 2: That's why all of the economic advisors were sent out
42:01
Speaker 2: to the Sunday shows. That's why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen
42:04
Speaker 2: is out trying to say whatever he's saying this morning.
42:06
Speaker 2: That's why they announced their coalition of the unwilling to
42:10
Speaker 2: open the Street of the Horror moves at some point,
42:12
Speaker 2: potentially theoretically in the future, because he hates to see
42:17
Speaker 2: the market chaos and he knows that it will be
42:19
Speaker 2: devastating to his presidency, especially given the fact that the
42:23
Speaker 2: American people are buy and large not on board with
42:25
Speaker 2: this conflict, we're not bought into it already. We can
42:28
Speaker 2: put the gas prices up on the screen. They've gone
42:30
Speaker 2: up significantly. Now the national average is actually looking at
42:34
Speaker 2: it live this morning, it's three dollars and seventy two cents,
42:37
Speaker 2: So it's ticked up even a little bit from when
42:39
Speaker 2: we made this graphic yesterday evening. There is no state
42:43
Speaker 2: in the country where gas remains under two dollars. I
42:45
Speaker 2: can tell you, you know, two weeks ago when I went
42:48
Speaker 2: to my local gas station, it was under two dollars
42:51
Speaker 2: in state of Virginia. And Virginia's kind of like the
42:53
Speaker 2: midpoint of where all of these you know, all of
42:56
Speaker 2: these states are and what they're experiencing. You look out
42:58
Speaker 2: on the West coast, those red states read in terms
43:01
Speaker 2: of the color on this picture, not in terms of
43:04
Speaker 2: their political leanings. California five dollars and fifty three cents,
43:08
Speaker 2: Oregon four dollars and forty nine cents. You know, all
43:12
Speaker 2: of these are basically over four dollars, with the exception
43:15
Speaker 2: of New Mexico and Colorado. So already you know there's
43:20
Speaker 2: a real toll being taken at the gas pump that
43:23
Speaker 2: you know filters through all kinds of economic choices that
43:26
Speaker 2: people make, and that is felt immediately by the American people.
43:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, five fifty eight.
43:30
Speaker 3: Gallon is so crazy. I mean, it's always so high
43:34
Speaker 3: in California. I don't know what you people are doing
43:36
Speaker 3: out there. I know the weather's nice, but at a
43:37
Speaker 3: certain point, I just don't get it unless you're filthy rich,
43:41
Speaker 3: which I know most of the Walmark I've seen the
43:43
Speaker 3: average income of statements whenever it comes to California. On
43:46
Speaker 3: top of all the tacks. Wow, anyway, let's go to
43:49
Speaker 3: B seven. Let's put this one up here on the screen.
43:52
Speaker 3: You flag this one. The hoop Thies are now threatening
43:55
Speaker 3: to actually enter the war, they say, regarding the decision
43:58
Speaker 3: to stand alongside EA. This decision has been made. We
44:01
Speaker 3: are monitoring the situation with our finger on the trigger. Therefore,
44:04
Speaker 3: Yemen's participation is a matter of time. I think what
44:07
Speaker 3: this demonstrates because remember what they would be able to
44:10
Speaker 3: try and shut down as the Red Sea. And if
44:12
Speaker 3: you take a look at a map right now with
44:14
Speaker 3: disclosure of the straits of our moves, there's the Saudi
44:17
Speaker 3: Arabian Pipeline, the East West Pipeline, which is trying to
44:19
Speaker 3: export about seventy percent of their current oil capacity from
44:22
Speaker 3: the pipeline around the Straits of Hormoves.
44:24
Speaker 2: Now.
44:24
Speaker 3: The issue though, is that if the who these were
44:27
Speaker 3: to enter, I think that would be like a dead
44:28
Speaker 3: man switch on the entire region. You close the Straits
44:31
Speaker 3: of Hormus and you close the Red Sea. What that
44:33
Speaker 3: means in both the scenarios is that you actually shut
44:35
Speaker 3: down oil export completely in the region. I think maybe
44:40
Speaker 3: others can agree, is that this is something being held
44:43
Speaker 3: in reserve for future escalation, even though it does feel
44:46
Speaker 3: like it's been forever. It's only the third week of
44:48
Speaker 3: the war, right, and they have to last potentially for
44:51
Speaker 3: a long time in this confrontation with the US and
44:54
Speaker 3: with Israel. And I actually think if you look at
44:57
Speaker 3: the current Iranian strategy, what they want is to wide
45:00
Speaker 3: in the war, to spread both of these nations thin,
45:03
Speaker 3: and to punish them as much as they can. So
45:06
Speaker 3: with Israel, we're going to talk about that here in
45:08
Speaker 3: a second. Already they're invading Lebanon. They have called up
45:11
Speaker 3: several hundred thousand reservists, or at least they're ready to go.
45:15
Speaker 3: If they need to, they might have to do a
45:16
Speaker 3: literal ground invasion, an occupation of southern Lebanon with Hasbulah,
45:21
Speaker 3: they could get into some sort of ground war there.
45:23
Speaker 3: We know that they're running low on interceptors, so they're
45:25
Speaker 3: trying to bleed them through Hasbulah. At the same time,
45:28
Speaker 3: with the United States, they have the current economic conflict
45:31
Speaker 3: that's happening. They're just you know, shooting all these places
45:34
Speaker 3: in the Gulf. But what they could do is if
45:36
Speaker 3: things ratchet up, let's say, with an occupation of carg
45:39
Speaker 3: Island and we cut off total Iranian output, they'll get okay,
45:42
Speaker 3: We're going to cut off all oil export in the
45:44
Speaker 3: entire region and just ramp up all strikes on critical
45:48
Speaker 3: oil infrastructure. So that's where I would kind of see
45:50
Speaker 3: the who these as of right now. And then finally
45:53
Speaker 3: we wanted to put this video B eight please just
45:56
Speaker 3: to show everybody this happened a couple of days ago,
46:00
Speaker 3: actually just happened again this morning. Is these Fujaira oil
46:04
Speaker 3: terminals in the UAE, which is a huge export hub,
46:07
Speaker 3: were actually struck by Iranian drones now multiple times. In
46:10
Speaker 3: addition to Dubai International Airport. This is just in the
46:13
Speaker 3: last forty eight seventy two hours. So to show you
46:16
Speaker 3: that after those strikes on carg Island, this is immediately
46:19
Speaker 3: what the Iranians decided to do, and they remain able
46:22
Speaker 3: to escalate in that way because of their drone technology.
46:25
Speaker 3: And I think you know, just when you put it
46:27
Speaker 3: all together, you are watching the golf economies truly on
46:31
Speaker 3: the brink B ten if we can, just to show
46:33
Speaker 3: all of you, Bloomberg News writing this up, that the
46:36
Speaker 3: golf economies are currently at risk of the worst slump
46:39
Speaker 3: since the nineteen nineties on the Iran War, there has
46:43
Speaker 3: been a massive contraction. Let's say in Dubai real estate,
46:47
Speaker 3: let's put B eleven up there on the screen. This
46:49
Speaker 3: is currently like a third of its value in just
46:52
Speaker 3: nine days if you look at the publicly traded real
46:56
Speaker 3: estate companies of the developers and the landlords in the area.
46:59
Speaker 3: So the entire architecture of Dubai, which is basically banking
47:05
Speaker 3: for the global super elite. No matter who you are,
47:08
Speaker 3: we welcome you into Dubai, all these influencers and all
47:12
Speaker 3: these other people, it really is going to challenge their standing.
47:16
Speaker 3: And while that's really painful for them, remember they have billions,
47:20
Speaker 3: hundreds of billions of dollars invested in our companies too,
47:22
Speaker 3: And if they're upset, they can pull a lot of
47:25
Speaker 3: that investment and they can go looking elsewhere.
47:27
Speaker 1: Because they have no morals and no scruples, they'll go.
47:29
Speaker 3: To anybody who is going to protect them and or
47:32
Speaker 3: backstop their economy. So it's already, like you said, it's
47:34
Speaker 3: a world war. We are in a world war. It
47:36
Speaker 3: doesn't have to look like the old world wars. That's
47:38
Speaker 3: one of the common fallacies that people always think is
47:41
Speaker 3: that they're like, oh, the new war is going to
47:42
Speaker 3: look exactly like the old one, and then within about
47:44
Speaker 3: a month people are like, oh, this one's actually totally different.
47:46
Speaker 1: And here we are.
47:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Epstein class fleeing Dubai is the TLDR there.
47:52
Speaker 2: And last note that I'll put out here. I'm just
47:56
Speaker 2: seeing this online Axios reporting that Trump is considering putting
47:59
Speaker 2: boots on then to seize Iran's carg Island. Appears to
48:03
Speaker 2: be contingent on if tankers remain bottled up in the
48:06
Speaker 2: Persian Gulf. And you know that would be no small
48:10
Speaker 2: task because again, you're on this island. Sure could you
48:14
Speaker 2: take it? Can you bomb the hell out of it.
48:15
Speaker 2: Can you, you know, land your marines there or whatever
48:17
Speaker 2: you're going to do. I'm sure you can. Then you're
48:19
Speaker 2: on this island very close to Iran, where you know
48:23
Speaker 2: they're going to be in position to cause some problems
48:25
Speaker 2: for you and create a lot more casualties than we've
48:28
Speaker 2: already had. And so it's you know, it's that would
48:31
Speaker 2: be boots on the ground would be a dramatic escalation.
48:34
Speaker 2: I think it's something Frankly, the Iranians are waiting for.
48:37
Speaker 2: I mean that's what they've said publicly, and I don't
48:39
Speaker 2: think it's just a bluff because they know that they
48:42
Speaker 2: have a lot of strategic advantages if you actually have
48:45
Speaker 2: boots on the ground in the country. And the other
48:47
Speaker 2: thing I'll say about it is, you know, carg Island
48:50
Speaker 2: obviously very important. As you said, ninety percent of their
48:53
Speaker 2: oil exports flow through carg Island. They do have other options,
48:57
Speaker 2: there are other contingencies, so it's not like they would
49:00
Speaker 2: be totally completely screwed in towards in terms of oil
49:03
Speaker 2: exports if we were to Seizekarg Island. I believe it
49:06
Speaker 2: was attacked in the Irana Rock War and they were
49:08
Speaker 2: able to to go in other directions, and so they
49:11
Speaker 2: do have some backup facilities and mechanisms, but you know,
49:15
Speaker 2: we'll have to keep an eye on that. Thing is
49:17
Speaker 2: just continues going up the escalation chain, as you said,
49:20
Speaker 2: just like Robert Pape predicts.
49:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, we have about two thousand, five hundred marines that
49:25
Speaker 3: are on their way to the Persian Gulf.
49:28
Speaker 1: They were diverted from.
49:30
Speaker 3: An exercise in the Indo Pacific Marine Expeditionary Force. There
49:34
Speaker 3: are already about fifty thousand marines that are in the region.
49:38
Speaker 3: So it is a big question why do you need
49:40
Speaker 3: this Marine Expeditionary Force. I did speak with an expert.
49:44
Speaker 3: He said that they may be able to bolster, let's say,
49:46
Speaker 3: some of the security if there is some sort of deployment.
49:49
Speaker 3: But I mean, anytime you're calling in more troops, it's
49:52
Speaker 3: not good. It's usually not good. All right, let's get
49:54
Speaker 3: to Mortaza Husseani standing by joining us now is Mortaza
49:59
Speaker 3: Hussein of drop Side News. Great friend of the show.
50:01
Speaker 3: It's good to see you man, Thanks for joining us,
50:03
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. All right, so let's break down
50:05
Speaker 3: some of the military interceptor problem that we're already beginning
50:08
Speaker 3: to see in Israel. First, we're going to start with
50:10
Speaker 3: C one. We have a video here from NBC News
50:13
Speaker 3: been verified, but we're all going to watch. I mean,
50:16
Speaker 3: this is the problem in a nutshell. You are watching
50:20
Speaker 3: two Israeli interceptors try to shoot down this incoming Iranian missile.
50:26
Speaker 3: They both miss, and you watch as it strikes deep
50:29
Speaker 3: in the heart of Tel Aviv, in the middle of
50:32
Speaker 3: a city. This comes on the heel mas of this
50:35
Speaker 3: new report from my friend Shelby Talcott over at Semaphore.
50:39
Speaker 3: Let's put that one up there on the news. Israel
50:41
Speaker 3: is running critically low on interceptors. Reportedly enter the current
50:46
Speaker 3: We're already low and have now informed the United States,
50:49
Speaker 3: so they need to be topped up. Obviously, we have
50:52
Speaker 3: ourselves a very finite supply. So what do you make
50:56
Speaker 3: of the ongoing munitions and interceptor problem after only two
51:00
Speaker 3: weeks of war.
51:01
Speaker 6: Well, you know, the crazy thing is that before the
51:03
Speaker 6: war started, this was seen as maybe the pre eminent
51:06
Speaker 6: reason not to have the war. But there are many
51:08
Speaker 6: other reasons we're seeing now with the straight up four
51:10
Speaker 6: moves and so forth, very die reasons, but arguably the
51:12
Speaker 6: number one reason was the lack of the interceptors. These
51:15
Speaker 6: interceptors are trimly expensive. They're very time consuming to produce.
51:19
Speaker 6: I believe in the previous years US sometimes going to
51:22
Speaker 6: produce a dozen in a year or something like that.
51:24
Speaker 6: They're very, very finite, both for the US and US allies,
51:27
Speaker 6: and as you showed that video, oftentimes you have to
51:30
Speaker 6: fire several interceptors to try to defeat a single Iranian missile,
51:35
Speaker 6: and maybe it won't even be successful. So the math
51:37
Speaker 6: kind of favors the Iranians here. Really, the US Israeli
51:41
Speaker 6: goal would have to be to suppress Iranian fire before
51:44
Speaker 6: the interceptors run out. There's no indication that Iranian missiles
51:48
Speaker 6: have run out right now. They're inspiring at a slower pace,
51:50
Speaker 6: but they've also said that they're planning for a war
51:52
Speaker 6: which can go on for months or even years potentially,
51:55
Speaker 6: so it could be the tempo of their operations. We
51:57
Speaker 6: don't really know a lot of this stuff is classified,
51:59
Speaker 6: but we do on now that the interceptor fears that
52:02
Speaker 6: were racing before the war and now being leaked out,
52:05
Speaker 6: And if we're in a situation where the Iranians is
52:07
Speaker 6: so firing and the interceptors are out, that's very disastrous
52:10
Speaker 6: for the Israelis sided in this case. And one last thing,
52:14
Speaker 6: these interceptors aren't tended to defend the whole world, so
52:16
Speaker 6: they're tend to defend the US positions in Asia. They're
52:19
Speaker 6: needed in Ukraine as well too, So if you're draining
52:22
Speaker 6: down the global supply in one theater, there's going to be.
52:24
Speaker 8: Tremendous knock on effects.
52:26
Speaker 6: And you can actually incentifize escalation in Asia because you're
52:29
Speaker 6: making it easy for the Chinese North Koreans because they
52:32
Speaker 6: don't have the same defense munitions to face that they
52:35
Speaker 6: are which tribute used now in Iran.
52:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, and what about I feel like we're being gas
52:40
Speaker 2: lit about the amount of Iranian capacity that has been
52:44
Speaker 2: taken out by the Israelis and the Americans. You know,
52:47
Speaker 2: the sort of race is between the US and Israel
52:50
Speaker 2: trying to destroy not just the missiles but the missile launchers,
52:53
Speaker 2: and you know, their stockpiles of interceptors running out as
52:57
Speaker 2: Irn continues to be able to fire missiles and then
52:59
Speaker 2: also use drones to menace the region. So what do
53:02
Speaker 2: we know about how much the Iranian capacity to fire
53:05
Speaker 2: missiles has been degraded and what their stockpile of these
53:08
Speaker 2: shot head drones is as well.
53:10
Speaker 8: Well.
53:11
Speaker 6: You know, almost from the beginning of the war, the
53:13
Speaker 6: US and Israel said that they've eliminated Iran's ability more
53:16
Speaker 6: or less to fire missiles, using figures like sixty ninety
53:21
Speaker 6: percent in terms of destruction of launchers and so forth.
53:24
Speaker 8: There's missed some contributing evidence about that.
53:26
Speaker 6: It's hard to say exactly what we can say for
53:29
Speaker 6: sure that the Irans are so firing more than two
53:31
Speaker 6: weeks into the war, which is something I don't than
53:33
Speaker 6: people expected. Secondly, pre war, they had very significant capacity
53:37
Speaker 6: for manufacturing missiles, but also these shot head drones. You
53:40
Speaker 6: mentioned the drones. Some estimates say they can cost less
53:43
Speaker 6: than ten thousand dollars each. Iran entered serial production of
53:47
Speaker 6: the drones many years ago, so they were mass producing
53:49
Speaker 6: them for a very long period. And it's sort of
53:52
Speaker 6: a variable that surprisingly the US and Israel didn't account
53:56
Speaker 6: for before, which is that these cheap drones give Iran
53:59
Speaker 6: precision strike capacity far beyond at a greater scale than
54:03
Speaker 6: people would have undersaid before. I think it'd be very
54:05
Speaker 6: hard to shut down the straight up form moose, for instance,
54:08
Speaker 6: before without these drones.
54:09
Speaker 8: You need to have actual ships go out there. You
54:10
Speaker 8: need to mine it.
54:11
Speaker 6: I need maybe artillery launchers at the shore and so forth.
54:15
Speaker 6: But now that these drills are very accurate, you can
54:17
Speaker 6: fly them into ships and some that's gonna say the
54:20
Speaker 6: minds of tens of thousands. It could be fighting them
54:22
Speaker 6: for you know, many many years.
54:24
Speaker 8: Even then.
54:24
Speaker 6: They're still producing them now, even perhaps in facilities embedded
54:28
Speaker 6: in the mountains underground, the Elbowars mountains. So I think
54:31
Speaker 6: that the whole mythos that Iran had no production capacity,
54:35
Speaker 6: had no ability to resist, but sort of giving the Trump,
54:38
Speaker 6: probably with the israelis more to make it seem like
54:40
Speaker 6: a cake walk to get in this situation which he
54:42
Speaker 6: has now.
54:43
Speaker 3: Mind, one of the things, Miles, that we've been looking
54:45
Speaker 3: at in particular, are some of these new cluster minitions.
54:48
Speaker 3: Let's put see four up there on the screen, just
54:51
Speaker 3: to give everybody an example. This is from CNN, but
54:53
Speaker 3: there are multiple other reports out here how the use
54:56
Speaker 3: of cluster munitions is actually challenging is really air defense.
55:00
Speaker 3: See there is actually say an unnerving spectacle that has
55:02
Speaker 3: become a feature of the war in Israel, outfitting some
55:05
Speaker 3: of the ballistic missiles with cluster munitions that pierce through
55:08
Speaker 3: Israel's sophisticated air defense systems carry up to eleven pounds
55:12
Speaker 3: of explosives. They cluster and explode over so that way
55:16
Speaker 3: they can't be intercepted and that they can hit over
55:19
Speaker 3: a multiple mile radius.
55:21
Speaker 1: So the fact that they are still able.
55:23
Speaker 3: To launch ballistic missiles and even drones, I think does
55:27
Speaker 3: fundamentally challenge the US narrative. The US narrative is, what
55:30
Speaker 3: is it ninety five percent of production, and then they'll
55:33
Speaker 3: say that launches are down. What I've noticed, though, is
55:36
Speaker 3: that our strikes are also down. So in terms of
55:38
Speaker 3: the number of initial strikes that happened in the first
55:40
Speaker 3: couple days of the war, our strikes seem to be
55:43
Speaker 3: also significantly down, so called precision strikes, not counting the Israelis,
55:47
Speaker 3: of course, who are just bombing whatever they desire. But
55:50
Speaker 3: what we continue to see is that after a couple
55:52
Speaker 3: of weeks, they're still able to launch missiles, They're still
55:54
Speaker 3: able to hit drone not launch drones. They're able to
55:57
Speaker 3: launch and hit critical infrastructure. And even if we do
56:01
Speaker 3: hit all the production facilities that we know about, there
56:03
Speaker 3: could be many others that we don't know about. So
56:06
Speaker 3: this seems to spell a country able to resist for
56:09
Speaker 3: the medium to long term or do you see it differently?
56:12
Speaker 6: No, I totally agree with you. And you know, one
56:14
Speaker 6: thing is very important in the war. As much as
56:16
Speaker 6: devastations happened in Iran so far, it's mostly been in
56:19
Speaker 6: the western and central parts of the country. There's a
56:21
Speaker 6: huge eastern part of the country which is kind of
56:23
Speaker 6: out of the range of these air strikes, and it
56:25
Speaker 6: has not really been affected. It wasn't affected in the
56:27
Speaker 6: last war either, just because it's much more difficult to strike.
56:29
Speaker 6: So you know, they've been preparing for this conflict for
56:33
Speaker 6: literally generations. They've dispersed the product facilities around the country,
56:37
Speaker 6: underground and so forth, so it's very, very difficult to
56:39
Speaker 6: completely destroy it. Although they arguing gremendous damage to Iran's
56:42
Speaker 6: industrial base. I think that you know, you know, if
56:45
Speaker 6: you look at the Iranian statements and take them for
56:47
Speaker 6: what they will, but they claim that they haven't even
56:49
Speaker 6: fired the missiles that produce in the last decade. They
56:51
Speaker 6: say they fire the older missiles and they're saving them
56:53
Speaker 6: more advanced ones for later in the conflict when they
56:56
Speaker 6: expect that the Israeli defenses will be down further. These
56:59
Speaker 6: acts that have been taking place on the missile defenses Israel,
57:03
Speaker 6: for instance, they're all basically down payments on future attacks
57:07
Speaker 6: because if you can use your less advanced missiles upfront,
57:10
Speaker 6: you drain down the defense batteries on those, and they
57:14
Speaker 6: can use the more advanced once later on for more
57:16
Speaker 6: and more devastating attacks. And that seems that what they're
57:18
Speaker 6: doing here specifically, and you know, to your other point,
57:22
Speaker 6: the way that these air campaigns operate is that they're
57:24
Speaker 6: more intense at the beginning. You have all your assets
57:27
Speaker 6: and there the shot can happens upfront. And the US
57:30
Speaker 6: strategy was that in the SHOTG and NAW should collapse
57:32
Speaker 6: the Iranian government, they shouldn't be in the position to
57:34
Speaker 6: continue firing because, as you said, the patent intensity, if
57:38
Speaker 6: the US operations decreases over time for logistical reasons, and
57:42
Speaker 6: even Israeli operations will decrease over time.
57:44
Speaker 8: So I think that now the great situation where the US.
57:47
Speaker 6: Ability to course by the air is actually decreasing, because
57:50
Speaker 6: the sortie rate is decreasing, logistics are becoming a factor.
57:54
Speaker 6: I Meanwhile, the Iranian fire rate is staying relatively stable now,
57:58
Speaker 6: and that's not an advantageous position. Iranians designed this war
58:01
Speaker 6: to be a marathon, whereas the Israeli US preference as
58:04
Speaker 6: a sprint, and now it seems like we're entering the marathon.
58:07
Speaker 4: Yeah, very interesting.
58:09
Speaker 2: You know, what do we know about the actual damage
58:11
Speaker 2: inside of Israel and the GCC member states. These are
58:14
Speaker 2: all authoritarian countries. We've been talking here about the level
58:18
Speaker 2: of censorship, the threats against anyone posting any of the
58:21
Speaker 2: images of destruction. We also have these private satellite companies
58:25
Speaker 2: that have decided to do the bidding of the US
58:27
Speaker 2: and Israel and take down their satellite images so that
58:29
Speaker 2: they are no longer accessible, so we can't see the
58:32
Speaker 2: extent of the damage here.
58:33
Speaker 8: Well, you know, it was very notable.
58:35
Speaker 6: Up to about March seventh, we were seeing satellite images
58:38
Speaker 6: of very serious destruction at the US military bases in
58:41
Speaker 6: the region. Advanced radars, including for the SAD radar system,
58:45
Speaker 6: one of which are being moved from South Korea now
58:47
Speaker 6: to replenation in the Middle East. So the Iranians had
58:51
Speaker 6: pretty accurate precision strike capacities against US military assets throughout
58:56
Speaker 6: the Gulf and also targets in the Gulf and we've
58:59
Speaker 6: seen the non reports of people being arrested in very
59:02
Speaker 6: large numbers in the UI and elsewhere for taking photos
59:04
Speaker 6: of the aftermath of these strikes.
59:06
Speaker 8: Israeliz similar censorship in place.
59:09
Speaker 6: I'm not sure the level of extent of total damage
59:12
Speaker 6: per se at the moment, because I don't think the
59:14
Speaker 6: Iranians are actually trying to inflict physical damage or even
59:17
Speaker 6: kill people specifically that then be a byproduct of the operations.
59:21
Speaker 6: But the one thing that aiming to do is to
59:24
Speaker 6: increase economic pain globally. Say that if you're taking us
59:28
Speaker 6: down and take everyone down with you, specifically in the
59:30
Speaker 6: Gulf States, and also to unnerve the Israelis and keep
59:33
Speaker 6: them in a position of long term war that can
59:36
Speaker 6: also manifest and greater distraction down the road if the
59:38
Speaker 6: interceptors run out. So right now, the Iranian position is
59:42
Speaker 6: not actually to create mass havoc. They're trying more to
59:46
Speaker 6: keep the temperature at a level that they can maintain
59:49
Speaker 6: and that they prefer.
59:50
Speaker 8: So I think the question now is what would your
59:52
Speaker 8: response be?
59:53
Speaker 6: And you know, like I said, and Sager who says,
59:55
Speaker 6: what to these strike rates are going down?
59:57
Speaker 8: So can the US escalate? Blue?
59:59
Speaker 6: The US has to in they eight parts of Iran
1:00:01
Speaker 6: or launching ground operation. It's actually headed in that direction,
1:00:05
Speaker 6: either as a capitulation or escalation, and neither is a
1:00:07
Speaker 6: very enviable prospect. And I will say one thing I
1:00:11
Speaker 6: think this morning, I was actually looking at Iranian news.
1:00:13
Speaker 6: There was a airstrike against a very strange target. It
1:00:17
Speaker 6: was the civilian headquarters for an electricity company, and many
1:00:22
Speaker 6: several engineers and employees were killed at the company. I
1:00:24
Speaker 6: don't think they're expecting to be struck. It wasn't the
1:00:26
Speaker 6: military target. So I think what the is really a
1:00:29
Speaker 6: US strategy now, and this is probably is really strike,
1:00:31
Speaker 6: to be honest, is more to if you can't course
1:00:34
Speaker 6: them militarily, see if you can inflict so much civilian
1:00:37
Speaker 6: pain to the infrastructure and so forth. Did they just
1:00:39
Speaker 6: capitulate for that reason, Yeah, but I think that that
1:00:41
Speaker 6: also will not be the case.
1:00:42
Speaker 8: I don't think they're capitulate now. Everything it's that happened
1:00:45
Speaker 8: at this point.
1:00:46
Speaker 1: Oh of course.
1:00:47
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, even trying to do that with
1:00:48
Speaker 3: ground troops is itself a nightmare.
1:00:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's just let's kill all the electricians.
1:00:52
Speaker 3: It'll surely work out, just like it did in Iraq, right,
1:00:55
Speaker 3: you know, take out the civil servants, make sure that
1:00:57
Speaker 3: you collapse the country into civil war, and of course
1:01:00
Speaker 3: nothing will blow back on all of us. We did
1:01:02
Speaker 3: want to get your reaction. Could put C five up
1:01:04
Speaker 3: here on the screen. The Iranians are warning. The Iranian
1:01:08
Speaker 3: Secretary of the Supreme National Council is warning that remaining
1:01:11
Speaker 3: members of Epstein's network have devised a conspiracy for false
1:01:15
Speaker 3: flag attacks similar to nine to eleven that will be
1:01:17
Speaker 3: blamed on Iran. Let's put all of his you know,
1:01:20
Speaker 3: propaganda and rhetoric and all that aside, even though some
1:01:23
Speaker 3: of it might even be true. What should we make
1:01:26
Speaker 3: then of this warning? Obviously the Trump allies are going
1:01:30
Speaker 3: to say, well, that means he's planning something. And then
1:01:32
Speaker 3: of course others, many of us were very skeptical about
1:01:35
Speaker 3: any potential major terrorist attack here on US soil, or
1:01:39
Speaker 3: some sort of precipitating event which would a Gulf of Tonkin,
1:01:42
Speaker 3: let's say something like that, for example, which would require
1:01:45
Speaker 3: you know, some sort of escalation.
1:01:47
Speaker 1: It is clear are they trying to you?
1:01:49
Speaker 3: What do you make of their statement then, of why
1:01:50
Speaker 3: they're putting it out?
1:01:52
Speaker 8: Well, I think the number of things.
1:01:53
Speaker 6: First of all, the invocation of Epstein is quite common
1:01:56
Speaker 6: in the Iranian communications about the war, partly because they
1:02:01
Speaker 6: want to highlight the corruption of the ruling class of
1:02:04
Speaker 6: the US, that this situation going on literally right before
1:02:07
Speaker 6: the war, So that's something that become a common part
1:02:11
Speaker 6: of their public communications. Secondly, I do think they're trying
1:02:14
Speaker 6: to emphasize and they don't have a conflict with the
1:02:16
Speaker 6: American public. It's a kind of a very consistent messaging
1:02:20
Speaker 6: in the Iranian politics. Even during Ali comedy, you have
1:02:23
Speaker 6: this notorious and denunciations of the US, but he would
1:02:25
Speaker 6: often differentiate that from the American people and say it's
1:02:28
Speaker 6: a conflict with the American ruling class. So this is
1:02:30
Speaker 6: kind of consistent with that. And finally, you know, I
1:02:33
Speaker 6: do think that there is a possibility that the US
1:02:35
Speaker 6: government or is Israeli government especially could engineer a circumstance
1:02:40
Speaker 6: that creates a casses belly for escalation or try to
1:02:43
Speaker 6: create greater public support for escalation, because right now this
1:02:46
Speaker 6: war is very unpopular with the US, especially the most
1:02:49
Speaker 6: unpopular war perhaps started by polls at as outset we've
1:02:53
Speaker 6: ever seen, at least in our lifetimes certainly, and as
1:02:56
Speaker 6: time goes on. Wars don't become more popular, it become
1:02:59
Speaker 6: less popular, especially when casualties start mounting. And we're going
1:03:03
Speaker 6: to see very soon when inflation starts going crazy in
1:03:05
Speaker 6: the United States because of oil prices and woop prices,
1:03:08
Speaker 6: and then many many things that are going to be
1:03:09
Speaker 6: affected by the blocking and the straight ed form moves.
1:03:12
Speaker 8: People are gonna be very upset working at them.
1:03:14
Speaker 6: Back on board is some sort of incidents that causes
1:03:17
Speaker 6: you know, alarm or fear and results in people's rallying
1:03:21
Speaker 6: to the war itself. That could be an attack like
1:03:24
Speaker 6: the was alluded to that statement. But I also think
1:03:27
Speaker 6: that these push to seize Carved Island in Iran by
1:03:31
Speaker 6: Lindsay Graham and others, that is something which is almost
1:03:34
Speaker 6: certainly going to generate US casualties. It could generate catastrophic
1:03:37
Speaker 6: US casualties if you look at the actual geography of
1:03:40
Speaker 6: the island and what.
1:03:41
Speaker 8: Could that Michigan could entail.
1:03:42
Speaker 6: So I think it's actually a trap to try to
1:03:44
Speaker 6: get more Americans killed in some way in order to
1:03:47
Speaker 6: make the war popular, which is not popular when started.
1:03:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, wow, can we put C six up on the scrays?
1:03:54
Speaker 2: You know, I'm sure Ma's there are all kinds of
1:03:56
Speaker 2: rumors online that Netnahu has been killed by the Iranians.
1:04:01
Speaker 2: He waited a few days and then he put out
1:04:03
Speaker 2: this video of him in a coffee shop. Now the
1:04:06
Speaker 2: sluicer saying this one may be Ai too, in an
1:04:09
Speaker 2: attempt to turn this into an intelligent question. I was
1:04:12
Speaker 2: taking a look at some of the new polling that
1:04:16
Speaker 2: has come out about Americans views of Israel, and I mean,
1:04:20
Speaker 2: compared to where the country has been historically. The negativity
1:04:25
Speaker 2: that Americans feel towards this country is truly shocking, and
1:04:28
Speaker 2: I think is evidenced by the amount of excitement over
1:04:30
Speaker 2: the idea that met Yau may have been killed. Here
1:04:33
Speaker 2: You've got overall, only thirty two percent of Americans, according
1:04:37
Speaker 2: to this NBC News poll, who have a positive view
1:04:40
Speaker 2: of Israel, thirty nine percent having negative view. If you
1:04:44
Speaker 2: look at the Independent and the Democratic numbers in particular,
1:04:48
Speaker 2: I mean, it is stunning. Only thirteen percent of Democrats
1:04:53
Speaker 2: have a positive view of Israel. I think most of
1:04:56
Speaker 2: them are in DC or like Joshapiro, planning on running
1:04:59
Speaker 2: for president. So how much of Israel's calculation is the
1:05:04
Speaker 2: fact that they know the political landscape in the US
1:05:07
Speaker 2: is changing incredibly rapidly. They know that this current president,
1:05:11
Speaker 2: who they can, you know, apparently get whatever they want from,
1:05:14
Speaker 2: and who you know, they funded his campaign overwhelmingly, that
1:05:18
Speaker 2: he is, his party is very unpopular.
1:05:20
Speaker 4: He's very unpopular.
1:05:21
Speaker 2: Democrats are very likely to retake the White House, and
1:05:24
Speaker 2: then they have a very different situation potentially all on
1:05:28
Speaker 2: their hands with regard to support from the American superpower.
1:05:31
Speaker 2: So how much of that logic plays into, you know,
1:05:35
Speaker 2: their sense like it's now or never. We got to
1:05:37
Speaker 2: do this thing, we got to do it all the way,
1:05:39
Speaker 2: come what may.
1:05:41
Speaker 6: Well, you know it's funny too we you look at
1:05:42
Speaker 6: those stats, they're very stark. As he pointed out, I
1:05:45
Speaker 6: think that even more starck. We segment them out for
1:05:48
Speaker 6: age too, because even on the Republican size, more the
1:05:51
Speaker 6: Mark Levin generation, which is a very dug go about Israel,
1:05:54
Speaker 6: even younger conservatives are much more divided at least about
1:05:57
Speaker 6: the subject. So I do think that in a sense
1:06:00
Speaker 6: in public support, the clock is ticking. But you know,
1:06:02
Speaker 6: despite that, it's kind of in cities. I think that
1:06:04
Speaker 6: they're still planning to hold on to American support, even
1:06:06
Speaker 6: if there's very low popular support for Israel because if
1:06:09
Speaker 6: you look at the moves that the Israeli government's making
1:06:12
Speaker 6: with this administration, they're trying to embed many more years
1:06:15
Speaker 6: of cooperation and you know, US support security wise and
1:06:19
Speaker 6: others for a very very long time for Israel, making
1:06:22
Speaker 6: these memorandums of understanding for maybe ten fifteen years to
1:06:25
Speaker 6: continue not funding Israel quote unquote, but basically you know,
1:06:30
Speaker 6: doing defense cooperation, which winds up being the same thing.
1:06:33
Speaker 6: And likewise, they're built the maintaining ties with the American elites,
1:06:37
Speaker 6: so they would like to have a situation where they
1:06:39
Speaker 6: have very good relationship with American elites. They can sort
1:06:41
Speaker 6: of change the legal landscape even in the United States
1:06:44
Speaker 6: to insulate themselves from criticism as much as possible from
1:06:47
Speaker 6: the public. It's sort of exploit the corruption of the
1:06:51
Speaker 6: American political system to keep getting what they want.
1:06:53
Speaker 8: And I think that they actually aren't committed to giving
1:06:55
Speaker 8: this up.
1:06:56
Speaker 6: Maybe I'll have to tone it down a little bit
1:06:57
Speaker 6: or be a little bit more behind the scenes, but
1:07:00
Speaker 6: I think they would like to maintain a relationship with
1:07:03
Speaker 6: American elites that survives American public hostility and that we
1:07:07
Speaker 6: have presence for that the US cooperates very close to
1:07:10
Speaker 6: Satura Arabia for a very long time. Sarriga's not very
1:07:13
Speaker 6: popular in United States, but they still get quite a
1:07:14
Speaker 6: bit out of the American elites, and I think he
1:07:17
Speaker 6: Israelis like to move towards that. But two point, Crystal,
1:07:19
Speaker 6: I do think that Netna, who right now is trying
1:07:22
Speaker 6: to do a bank run on the United States, get
1:07:24
Speaker 6: as much out of it as he can at the moment,
1:07:26
Speaker 6: because he mentioned he does have a very plied US president.
1:07:28
Speaker 6: But also he's thinking of his own end of his
1:07:31
Speaker 6: life and his legacy.
1:07:32
Speaker 8: He wants to be known as the.
1:07:33
Speaker 6: Guy who destroyed Iran, who you know, destroyed Gaza, did
1:07:38
Speaker 6: all these different things, and he knows that he has
1:07:42
Speaker 6: a great opportunity to do that right now. So I
1:07:44
Speaker 6: think that it's a confluence of the trends you pointed out,
1:07:47
Speaker 6: but also Netnaho's own political calculations.
1:07:49
Speaker 8: Yeah.
1:07:49
Speaker 3: Literally, while you and I are talking, just came across
1:07:52
Speaker 3: hundreds of the thousands of Lebanese civilians being told they
1:07:54
Speaker 3: will not return to their homes. Israel completely invading southern Lebanon.
1:07:59
Speaker 3: In a different world, that's a huge headline. What isn't
1:08:01
Speaker 3: this the first invasion since two thousand and six, which
1:08:04
Speaker 3: at the time was a huge war.
1:08:05
Speaker 1: Everybody covered it.
1:08:06
Speaker 3: Now I mean effectively being told you can never come
1:08:09
Speaker 3: back until quote the safety is of Israelis living near
1:08:12
Speaker 3: the border has ensured. Who wants to guess that it
1:08:14
Speaker 3: will never be insured the safety of Israelis and that
1:08:17
Speaker 3: we just saw another expansion of the Israeli state with
1:08:20
Speaker 3: its borders.
1:08:21
Speaker 6: Absolutely, this is the many precedence for the past, and
1:08:24
Speaker 6: according to the Israeli state ideology, the more hardcore versions
1:08:28
Speaker 6: of it, south of Lebanhar is part of Israelis. They
1:08:30
Speaker 6: have been the territorially irridentist due towards this, regardless of
1:08:34
Speaker 6: any security concern they wanted for other reasons.
1:08:37
Speaker 8: So I think this is this is just one of
1:08:38
Speaker 8: like seven wars.
1:08:39
Speaker 6: It's really a fighting at the moment, and it's very
1:08:41
Speaker 6: uncommon in history for a country to be like that.
1:08:44
Speaker 6: And the level of death has happened in Lebanon basically
1:08:47
Speaker 6: not reported so much because of all the other wars.
1:08:49
Speaker 6: Maybe eight hundred people who have been killed in just
1:08:51
Speaker 6: the four or five days, rapidly expanding every single day.
1:08:54
Speaker 6: The displacing that you mentioned. This is really a situation
1:08:57
Speaker 6: I don't think we've seen since like Imperial Japan, the
1:08:59
Speaker 6: country which is so brutal and so un multidirectionally violent
1:09:05
Speaker 6: that it's almost become part of the national character. And
1:09:08
Speaker 6: there's also a lot of violence happening in the West
1:09:10
Speaker 6: End as well too at the moment, very escalated violence cleansing.
1:09:13
Speaker 6: So you know, that's not very popular most people in
1:09:15
Speaker 6: the world, and people are just recoil against that, even
1:09:18
Speaker 6: countries in Europe which officially.
1:09:20
Speaker 8: Support is real very strong.
1:09:22
Speaker 6: In Germany, if you look at public opinions, it's soured
1:09:25
Speaker 6: quite a bit and very rapidly.
1:09:27
Speaker 8: So you know, one.
1:09:28
Speaker 6: Wonder is if a country can survive a situation where
1:09:31
Speaker 6: it's unpopularity is growing so much more.
1:09:34
Speaker 8: I do think that they're planning for that, but you know,
1:09:38
Speaker 8: you know, there's no endgame.
1:09:39
Speaker 5: Really.
1:09:39
Speaker 6: It seems like they would have wars that are going
1:09:42
Speaker 6: to be going on for many, many years, and I
1:09:44
Speaker 6: do think at some point there are questions that have
1:09:46
Speaker 6: that can be sustained absence you know, ongoing high levels
1:09:50
Speaker 6: of political support abroad.
1:09:52
Speaker 1: Wow, thank you so much for go ahead.
1:09:54
Speaker 2: One last worry list of seven up on the screen
1:09:57
Speaker 2: I mean, this footage is just unbelievable of a drone
1:10:01
Speaker 2: that has a pierced to a US base and you
1:10:03
Speaker 2: can see it, you know, just flying around, will going
1:10:06
Speaker 2: wherever it wants to go, and ultimately we can continue
1:10:10
Speaker 2: keeping this up on the screen. Ultimately it hones in
1:10:12
Speaker 2: on a target and goes in here and causes some
1:10:15
Speaker 2: level of damage. And we know that US bases around
1:10:17
Speaker 2: the region have been damage. I mean, there's a good
1:10:20
Speaker 2: chance that this effectively ends the US as the global superpower,
1:10:26
Speaker 2: as the you know, invincible hedgemon of the world. How
1:10:32
Speaker 2: does Israel view that possibility? You know, is that a
1:10:35
Speaker 2: problem for them because US is such a benefactor for them?
1:10:38
Speaker 2: Is that a plus for them because WE are one
1:10:40
Speaker 2: of their rivals for influence throughout the region. How do
1:10:43
Speaker 2: you think that they view that possibility?
1:10:48
Speaker 6: You know, I'll say two things, and I want to
1:10:49
Speaker 6: comment very quickly in that video too. I was very
1:10:51
Speaker 6: frightened when I saw that video because that video reminded
1:10:53
Speaker 6: me of many many videos that seen like this from
1:10:55
Speaker 6: you put in Russia War.
1:10:57
Speaker 8: That's a fiber optic.
1:10:59
Speaker 6: Drone, so drone that it's very difficult to jam and
1:11:01
Speaker 6: so forth, and you know, we've seen so many videos
1:11:04
Speaker 6: of Russian soldiers running for their lives and being killed
1:11:07
Speaker 6: by these drones the last moments of their life.
1:11:09
Speaker 8: And now the drones are disseminating around the world, and the.
1:11:12
Speaker 6: US is in this war now in Iraq and Iran,
1:11:15
Speaker 6: all these places because of the attack on Iran that
1:11:18
Speaker 6: you know, I don't want to see images of American
1:11:20
Speaker 6: soldiers running from these drones.
1:11:21
Speaker 8: It's horrifying. Those those videos are very, very devastating.
1:11:23
Speaker 6: So I think that that expanded that what I showed
1:11:26
Speaker 6: that video is a very very chilling sort of escalation
1:11:29
Speaker 6: of the conflict in terms of the way the technology
1:11:31
Speaker 6: is diffusing the second wing.
1:11:33
Speaker 8: You it's your point there, Crystal.
1:11:35
Speaker 6: What's happening right now is completely anatoma to conventional views
1:11:40
Speaker 6: of maintaining American interests abroad. That there's a theory in
1:11:43
Speaker 6: foreign relations that the ideal view for America abroad is
1:11:47
Speaker 6: to engage in the strategy of offshore balancing, and offshore
1:11:51
Speaker 6: balancing means that you know, you don't let any other
1:11:53
Speaker 6: country become the hedge of mind in its region. You
1:11:56
Speaker 6: keep a balance between them, because if they're a hedgemond,
1:11:58
Speaker 6: then they could start undermining our entry. What we're doing
1:12:00
Speaker 6: in Israel is something totally different from that. We're creating
1:12:03
Speaker 6: an Israeli hegemon. We are destroying all their enemies over years,
1:12:07
Speaker 6: and if you look at the last several decades, pretty
1:12:10
Speaker 6: much all of them have even been heavily suppressed or
1:12:12
Speaker 6: totally destroyed, and Roan is really the last one. So
1:12:15
Speaker 6: if you destroy Iran, you've created it is really superpower. Basically,
1:12:19
Speaker 6: Israel is the military superpowered the Region's a tremendous shift
1:12:22
Speaker 6: in what was maybe when they started as a very small,
1:12:25
Speaker 6: kind nacent country with US support, to become a superpower.
1:12:28
Speaker 6: So you've created a potential competitory to America in the future.
1:12:31
Speaker 6: Someone could stop American interests, someone who a country which
1:12:35
Speaker 6: is not very popular with Americans as well too that
1:12:38
Speaker 6: you're creating a potential enemy, someone's also embedded in your
1:12:40
Speaker 6: own systems and surveillance in a very strong way.
1:12:43
Speaker 8: This is completely against American interests.
1:12:45
Speaker 6: Leave aside all the moral judgments and so forth about it.
1:12:49
Speaker 6: Creating another rival or potential rival, superpower or regional power
1:12:53
Speaker 6: has never been an American policy before the right thing
1:12:56
Speaker 6: to do is the balance is reel against his other
1:12:58
Speaker 6: neighbors and create a sort of astasis that Americans can
1:13:00
Speaker 6: be at top of and be the interlockerator for and
1:13:03
Speaker 6: so forth. Toping right now is very injurious. And if
1:13:07
Speaker 6: you have a situation maybe twenty years down the road,
1:13:09
Speaker 6: thirty years down the road, where American views in Israel
1:13:12
Speaker 6: have soured a lot. But because all Israel's enemies have
1:13:15
Speaker 6: been destroyed by America's extremely powerful they can do that
1:13:19
Speaker 6: to stop our own interests in the region and abroad.
1:13:21
Speaker 6: They can use it to threaten people in America. It's
1:13:23
Speaker 6: not an Outlanta scenario. And Israel, despite everything, is not
1:13:26
Speaker 6: a treaty ally of the United States. And the reason
1:13:28
Speaker 6: you're not a treaty allies, if they're an ally, they'd
1:13:30
Speaker 6: have to support us if we had a problem. They
1:13:32
Speaker 6: didn't want to have them reciprocal relationship. It's a very
1:13:35
Speaker 6: one way sponsorship relationship. So I think that you know,
1:13:37
Speaker 6: this destruction of Iran, potentially the degradation of Iran and
1:13:41
Speaker 6: everything that may happen going forward, this is something which
1:13:44
Speaker 6: is tremendously injurious to American interests, and you know, it's
1:13:48
Speaker 6: against the basic philosophy of American form policy.
1:13:51
Speaker 8: Has been constructed for a century.
1:13:52
Speaker 4: Yes, you're right, very interesting.
1:13:54
Speaker 1: Thank you very much, sir, appreciate you guys.
1:14:01
Speaker 8: Att