Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Did Blackrock Just OFFICIALLY END The Bitcoin Bull Run?! | EP 1380

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Did Blackrock Just OFFICIALLY END The Bitcoin Bull Run?! | EP 1380 · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
Just saw the largest daily outflow in history and Bitcoin
0:04
is plunging below $90,000 again. Is this the official end of the
0:10
Bitcoin bull run? Well, Michael Saylor was just on
0:13
the news again and had a lot of interesting things to say about
0:16
BlackRock and the institution's involvement in the space.
0:20
Let's check out the clip. Well, folks, we know Bitcoin has
0:25
has faced tough sledding in the past, but so certainly in recent
0:27
months. In fact, that chart is saying
0:30
that this the first time since 2023 that's negative on the
0:33
year. And that's worrisome for for
0:35
holders who may not have been in it long enough to know that
0:39
there are usually some booms and busts with this thing.
0:41
Now it's still it does have the meme riders working overtime.
0:45
I thought this is a fun one taking shots at the crypto Bros.
0:49
Of course, nobody takes more shots than Michael Saylor, who
0:52
posted just a few hours ago on X quote believe.
0:55
So let's bring him in now. Strategy founder executive
0:58
chairman Michael Saylor. Michael, some would say that
1:01
believe is like hope. It's not a strategy.
1:04
So what? What's change?
1:06
Has anything changed with the value proposition?
1:08
You know, bitcoins been around for 15 years, it's had 15 major
1:12
draw downs. They've it's always come back to
1:15
a new all time high. If you zoom out, this is just
1:18
par for the course. This is normal in the life cycle
1:22
of an of an emergent transformational asset class and
1:26
and it's a healthy thing. It clears out the tourists, the
1:29
leverage and and the weak holders and and sets the basis
1:33
for the next rally upward. A lot of folks are saying when
1:36
Wall Street was kicking the tires that when Wall Street got
1:38
involved, we'd have less volatility.
1:41
And, and is that, you know, do you feel it's, it's the Wall
1:44
Street connection? Has that helped or hurt?
1:46
You know, I think we are getting less volatility.
1:48
When I got into this space in 2020, Bitcoin was an 80 Vol
1:53
asset growing about 80% a year and it's ground down to 70706060
1:58
and now it's 50 Vol asset growing about 50% a year.
2:03
I think every few years you're going to get another five points
2:06
of all taken off it as it matures, and it's kind of
2:09
grinding toward being about 1 1/2 times as volatile as the S&P
2:15
index and 1 1/2 times better performing.
2:18
Could it be to a degree of victim of its own success in a
2:21
sense that it feels like other cryptos this year and other, you
2:24
know, other other stories in this in this sort of in this
2:29
area have gotten a lot of attention.
2:31
Also, of course, gold. Does gold take away some
2:34
potential Bitcoin buyers? Well, you know, there's a lot of
2:37
exciting things going on in the economy.
2:39
There's digital intelligence and AI.
2:40
There's digital assets, digital currency, digital finance and
2:45
you know, and you can't dismiss any of them, but Bitcoin still
2:48
remains the ultimate digital opportunity for a sound money
2:51
enthusiast. So if if you simply want to save
2:55
your money forever and avoid counterparty risk, Bitcoin is
2:58
stronger than ever. These other opportunities are
3:02
going to continue to be shiny things and and you can leave
3:05
them to the tech investors that are experts in those areas.
3:08
Well, there you hear it. Sailor doesn't seem concerned at
3:12
all. And I, I know that's a stark
3:14
contrast to most of the people on Twitter right now.
3:17
Everyone is freaking out. I, I, I'm actually going to
3:20
pivot here a little bit before I get into the rest of the show
3:23
because we were having these conversations last night.
3:26
Me, Nico, Sophie and, and actually this morning with Luke
3:30
and one thing seems very clear. No one has any clue on what's
3:35
going on in my my case was there's probably about four
3:38
people that really do know what's going on.
3:41
Saylor, I think being one of them, Larry Fink being the other
3:45
one, probably Donald Trump and then maybe Jamie Dimon or other
3:50
David Sacks, the whole crypto czar crew.
3:52
They probably know what's going on right now.
3:55
And our take away is there seems to be some shenanigans going on.
3:59
Everyone is looking at the price.
4:01
Everyone can't make sense of if there is so much institutional
4:04
demand, institutional accumulation, what is going on
4:07
with the price? And I mean, I, I wish Nico's on
4:11
today. He's not on today, but he,
4:12
Sophie maybe can tell retell the story.
4:15
But apparently he went on like a six hour rabbit hole, autistic
4:18
rabbit hole of all the Bitcoin influencers.
4:22
And he called me at like 11:00 last night and he's like, dude,
4:26
I don't think I've ever been more confused about what's going
4:28
on with the price. I don't, I don't understand
4:30
what's going on. Usually we know what's going to
4:33
happen. You know, if we hit a top, it's
4:35
like, OK, we're going into the bear market 2 years, we'll be
4:37
right back. Now, we haven't hit any kind of
4:40
blow off top. We haven't hit any euphoria
4:42
phases. But from Sailor's take here,
4:45
it's kind of what we've all been saying.
4:47
This is par for the course. Bitcoin bull runs do have
4:51
historically 25 to 30% the clawbacks and then it still
4:56
runs. And I know there's a lot of new
4:59
kind of memes revolving around the elongated cycle.
5:03
The four year cycle was over. Everyone is kind of looking at
5:07
the price action of 2025 and they can't make sense of it.
5:11
As we've been saying for a while, every single person has
5:14
been wrong. It really doesn't make too much
5:17
sense when you're seeing the biggest institutions get into
5:19
Bitcoin, what is going on with accumulations?
5:22
You know, who is actually in control of the price?
5:24
Who's actually in control over the Bitcoin momentum?
5:27
And I made one simple case. It's like if you had to wait 16
5:31
years to get into Bitcoin and now you can finally get into
5:35
Bitcoin, what would you want to do?
5:38
You would want to acquire Bitcoin on the low.
5:41
And as we see sentiment revolve around Bitcoin at the lowest
5:44
it's ever been, it's really the meme playing out.
5:47
You know, Bitcoin goes at all time high and it crashes the 90K
5:50
and everyone loses their mind. I'm kind of with sailor on this
5:55
one. The market seem to be healthier
5:58
than ever. Yes, the price action has been
6:00
stagnant. Yeah, we'll go to selfie's face
6:03
in the in the sense that the fundamentals haven't changed.
6:06
If if anything, the fundamentals have gotten stronger, but the
6:09
price has literally done nothing all year and it's really making
6:13
people lose their minds. One of the people that I've been
6:16
kind of watching lately is British Hondo and he's like
6:18
we're going to 87 K. We got to, we got to clear out
6:20
all the tourists, all the leverage, and then we can
6:23
finally make another the leg up. So on that note, before I get
6:26
into the Black Rock stuff and actually some interesting kind
6:28
of accumulation from other institutions, I'm gonna pass it
6:31
off to Sophie because Sophie's been crashing out on me all
6:34
morning about the Bitcoin price. So I'm gonna get a vibe check
6:37
here. So how are you doing?
6:39
I'm shocked Nico has let me on the show today because I really
6:44
am like 1, you know, more dip away from just fully crashing
6:50
out. I love sailors optimism and I
6:54
want to believe that everything is okay.
6:57
But when I start to look at the other sectors, like this morning
7:00
I was watching a podcast with Luke Roman and Preston Pish, and
7:05
one of the things that he mentioned, I mean, aside from
7:08
all the technical stuff that I don't really understand, is that
7:12
this same thing seems to be happening in real estate.
7:15
Real estate has this expectation that everything was going to go
7:21
super, super bullish for them, you know, after the rate cuts,
7:25
whatever. And actually the very opposite
7:27
happened. And I feel like the same thing
7:29
is happening in Bitcoin, right? If we just focus on the cycles,
7:34
we are so lost right now. And if we focus on everything
7:39
that we thought had affected Bitcoin in the past, we would
7:43
think that the price should be like at astronomical levels.
7:47
But the reality is that it's not.
7:49
And that signals to me that there are things happening at
7:53
the foundational level of the economy that are just not right
7:58
right now. It's signaling to me that we we
8:02
are in for a world of pain that we probably don't want to accept
8:07
because we're supposed to be thinking, hey, we're going to
8:10
print money. We're making rate cuts.
8:11
The economy supposed to be awesome right now.
8:13
What are you talking about? What's going on?
8:15
But tech is is is crashing. And when tech crashes,
8:21
apparently Bitcoin, you know, they, they correlate the two
8:24
because dumb people in, in who are trading the I almost said
8:30
the R word because dumb people who are trading in in the stock
8:34
market correlate the 2. They think, oh, Bitcoin, it's
8:38
tech. It's not the same thing.
8:40
But they, they somehow correlate the two and everything,
8:45
everything is, is pretty much going, going to going, going
8:49
down the drains. I'm trying really hard not to
8:51
curse. Yeah, no, that, that is kind of
8:54
the thing actually. My buddy who's in the chat, who,
8:57
who look, I, I, I think at this point I have to say it live on
9:01
air. I, I was saying this morning,
9:03
I'm not going to give him his, the satisfaction to say he was
9:06
right, but he did call most of these tops and bottoms recently.
9:11
And one thing he said that really did make sense to me is
9:14
like, you got to break out of the Bitcoin echo chamber.
9:17
And that really kind of connects to what Sophie just said.
9:20
All markets are struggling right now.
9:23
And of course Bitcoin usually reacts before everything else.
9:26
And I think this is what we're seeing right now.
9:28
There is a lot of, you know, macro uncertainties, there is a
9:32
lot of fear on in all markets right now.
9:36
And we're starting to see that, yes, Bitcoin is reacting before
9:40
that. Usually Bitcoin will react
9:43
before, you know, on the upside as well.
9:45
So it is an interesting time to be in Bitcoin.
9:49
And I think it kind of goes back to a simple kind of perspective,
9:53
like the only winning move right now.
9:55
And I, and I was saying this last night, it's like if you're
9:58
looking at the Bitcoin price, if you're trying to figure out
10:00
what's going on, where we are in the cycle where, where we are on
10:04
not just the adoption curve, but you know, where are we on
10:08
Bitcoin winning and succeeding. It's I think it's a very simple
10:13
idea. You have to watch what these
10:15
institutions are doing. And I again, I said a minute
10:18
ago, hold on choking on my saliva.
10:22
I said a minute ago, I think there's a handful of people that
10:25
really understand what's going on.
10:27
If you, if you look at all the Bitcoin kind of influencers, all
10:31
the, as my boys at the Bugle say, all the pleb slop out
10:33
there, every Bitcoin analyst has been wrong.
10:36
We've all been coping. We've all been trying to
10:38
understand where we are right now.
10:40
But I really do think there's a handful of people and they're
10:42
not necessarily Bitcoiners that know what's going on.
10:45
Again, the Larry Finks of the world, the Donald Trump's of the
10:48
world, David Sachs, probably Saylor, the people that are in
10:52
these private conversations that we aren't Privy to, I think they
10:56
know what's coming down the pipeline.
10:58
And, and to me, it just seems like the institutions are are
11:02
essentially preparing themselves and accumulating as much coin as
11:05
possible while retail sentiment is at the lowest it's ever been
11:09
now, but. They need retail to also hop on
11:13
the boat. Like that's the thing, this
11:14
doesn't work unless we are all on the boat.
11:18
This isn't like Fiat where they can control the, you know, the
11:21
majority of the supply. Retail still has the majority of
11:25
the supply in custody. So it's not going to be like
11:29
last time where they start accumulating a bunch of Fiat and
11:33
they distribute it how they see fit and print more of it.
11:36
This isn't the same thing. And that's what they or having a
11:41
hard time understanding, that's why they are shilling out paper
11:45
Bitcoin, right? And that's why Blackrock's
11:49
clients have the easiest time just selling it because they
11:53
don't actually understand what it is.
11:55
I think BlackRock understands what it is.
11:57
I think the governments understand what it is.
11:59
And they see the writing on the wall and they say, hey, I would
12:02
rather be on this lifeboat than go down with the ship that is
12:07
Fiat. And in a way that's bullish.
12:10
But it what, what worries me and what has me not bearish but
12:15
worried is, you know, the loss of time because and the
12:19
expectation, man, like everybody expected this to be the bull run
12:24
of bull runs. We thought that we were going to
12:28
have, you know, 100K in 2021 that got cut short.
12:31
And it pains me to feel like that is the same thing that's
12:35
going to happen this cycle. Even though the institutions
12:39
have hopped on, even though the governments have hopped on and
12:43
they're the ones that have the most to lose, at least the
12:45
government does. This administration, when it
12:47
comes to the midterms, they are going to be so absolutely cooked
12:52
if they don't turn this around. And I'm not talking about just
12:55
Bitcoin. I'm talking about the economy as
12:58
a whole and so on. On one hand, you're absolutely
13:01
right. Like there is no way but up for
13:05
this to go. But the problem is the to the
13:08
right part. How long is this going to take?
13:11
Because people are getting frantic, they're getting antsy.
13:15
And if other parts of the economy are also failing, then
13:21
that's good. Like Bitcoin is going to be the
13:23
first thing to go just because people are dumb and they don't
13:27
understand how it works and they see it as an ETF, they see it as
13:30
a traditional financial instrument and they just like
13:34
they're going to sell it because they, they just don't understand
13:37
it. It's the first thing that
13:38
they're going to go to because they want a house, because they
13:41
want a car, because they need to live.
13:43
And it's totally understandable, but also like, are you really
13:48
going to sell your Bitcoin to BlackRock?
13:51
Are you really going to sell your Bitcoin to all of the
13:54
institutions that screwed us all over in the 1st place?
13:58
I really hope not, but I have. I have very little hope in
14:01
humanity. You know what?
14:03
That's the quote. I'm bearish on humanity right
14:05
now. Love it Sophie, Sophie, we we
14:11
were having this comment and I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna give you
14:13
guys the the Black Rock stuff in a minute, but I, I love a
14:16
general just vibe check. We were talking last night.
14:19
It's like what could kill Bitcoin?
14:21
Obviously, I think the the network of Bitcoin is
14:25
unstoppable and I know a lot of people are talking about like
14:27
knots and core and stuff, but one of the things that that I
14:31
think most people don't see and me and Sophie and Nico were
14:35
talking about this last night. It's like one of the ways that
14:37
they could actually kill Bitcoin is if they are able to maintain
14:41
a form of price suppression. If number doesn't go up, this
14:45
Bitcoin thing is over. And this is kind of the general
14:48
sentiment that a lot of people are are feeling right now is
14:50
like, is it over? Is the cycles done?
14:53
Is Bitcoin completely Co opted? And hence why I was on the show
14:56
yesterday and saying, you know, control over Bitcoin, I think is
15:00
a good meme. Not necessarily who controls
15:02
Bitcoin, but are you controlling your Bitcoin?
15:05
Because if you're giving BlackRock your coin, then they
15:08
can continue to, you know, do all kinds of shenanigans on it.
15:12
But this is where we are. And and I'm, I'm still bullish.
15:14
I, I honestly think there's still time.
15:17
I am it might wait. Hold on.
15:18
Did I bring this up for? Oh no, I'm going to save that
15:20
for tomorrow because we we do have some interesting cultural
15:23
stuff happening today. But 2026 could be could be a
15:28
good year for us guys. We could be seeing some
15:29
tailwinds again. I know you guys in the chat are
15:32
like this is copium. You know, Opti's coping live on
15:35
the show. Could be right, could be right.
15:37
Anyways, let me let me pivot into the BlackRock news because
15:40
I've been telling you guys for a minute.
15:42
Ever since the ETF launch, if you are looking at what's going
15:45
on in the Bitcoin space, it does seem like the institutions are
15:49
in control. Again, retail never showed up.
15:52
Retail is broke. People are fighting inflation.
15:55
They have no savings. The only people that are
15:57
seemingly accumulating Bitcoin right now are these
16:00
institutions. And you could argue that maybe
16:02
it's paper Bitcoin, maybe they're not actually buying all
16:04
this Bitcoin, but all the headlines are coming from
16:07
institutions acquiring Bitcoin. And therefore, as I said
16:10
yesterday, we have to be watching the ETF inflows and
16:14
outflows whether we like it or not.
16:16
I think that is what's driving the price currently so here we
16:20
go to the BlackRock stuff. Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF post a
16:24
record setting outflows worth 523 million yes, you heard that
16:29
right. The ETFI bit had basically half
16:33
a billion outflows from their clients.
16:37
So maybe Larry Fink knows what he he's holding, but the clients
16:40
are sure as hell getting shaken out right now.
16:43
So Blackrock's. At what price did they buy this?
16:48
Well, I'm, I'm going to, yeah, yeah, I don't have that data on
16:51
hand. So that that would be
16:52
interesting. They're selling it at, you know,
16:54
this, this lower price and they they basically took a loss, you
16:59
know, but if BlackRock keeps that Bitcoin, then they're
17:04
setting themselves up for possibly, you know, future
17:09
gains. I don't know.
17:10
I just don't understand why people are doing this.
17:12
OK, sorry. Continue Opti.
17:14
Well, you know, as as the meme goes, you, you buy high and sell
17:18
low. So they're, the ETF holders are
17:21
learning, learning what they're holding.
17:23
Anyways, Blackrock's I bit records its largest ever net
17:26
outflows on Tuesday as institutions recalibrated their
17:29
portfolio. According to so so value data.
17:32
I bit saw $523.15 million leave the ETF yesterday, surpassing
17:38
the previous record of $463 million outflows set on November
17:43
14th. The ETF has now logged five
17:46
straight days of net outflows totaling $1.43 billion.
17:52
And of course, Eric Balkunas who is the head analyst, senior
17:57
analyst at Bloomberg, he goes I bet had worst day of outflows
18:01
ever yesterday, about half a billion ugly stretch.
18:04
Although year to day, year to date flows still at an
18:07
astronomical plus $25 billion six overall all told 3.3 billion
18:14
in total outflows past month from Bitcoin ETFs, which is 3
18:19
1/2% of assets under management. So if you flip this, the
18:23
BlackRock ETF is still holding, you know, 9796.5% of all the
18:28
Bitcoin that they have acquired. But as you can see, if we are
18:32
watching the outflows and the inflows and we can kind of
18:37
correlate this with these dumps, if you see mass amounts of
18:40
outflows from these ETFs, they are affecting the price.
18:43
Now the interesting tidbit that I have been kind of talking
18:46
about with you guys about the ETF is there is a delay.
18:50
Now we don't know how what clear like they say it's a plus one
18:53
delay, but it hasn't seemed that clear.
18:56
And here we got a response. I bet reports a day late, right
18:58
and Eric Balkunis goes yes, but it's not exact.
19:01
But yeah, probably yesterday rally not in there.
19:04
It's a rough stretch though, no matter how you cut it.
19:07
Although I like to provide all the all implication contacts
19:11
which shows how minimal it is versus the big picture.
19:14
So even though we're seeing what seems to be a record number
19:19
outflows half a billion dollars, it's still minimal compared to
19:23
how much assets they actually hold in or how much Bitcoin they
19:27
actually hold in these ETFs. Now another interesting tidbit
19:30
that came out yesterday is that Morgan Stanley has sold $104
19:35
million in these Bitcoin BlackRock ETFs tied to the spot
19:40
Bitcoin ETF. So even though we are seeing
19:43
there are some outflows in the ETFs, we are seeing a
19:47
significant amount of buy pressure coming from wealthy
19:51
clients from all of these banks, which really goes back to my, my
19:55
main point here is like if we are looking at the Bitcoin
19:59
price, if we are looking at where we are on the cycle, if
20:02
we're trying to understand what is going on right now, I think
20:06
the best place to look is. What are these institutions
20:10
doing? What are these really, I would
20:12
argue influential people doing right now?
20:14
And the main take away that I'm seeing is they're playing the
20:17
accumulation game now everyone this year, I think that the fall
20:22
into a few camps. There's been a lot of Bitcoiners
20:25
that bought a lot of Bitcoin treasuries that were doing good
20:28
at the beginning of the year. Now they're doing absolutely
20:31
wrecked. They're just, they're they've
20:33
lost like 96 plus percent on some of these bags.
20:36
I think it's like an average between 90 and like 90% losses
20:40
on these Bitcoin treasury plays. I know some people have gone
20:43
into the meme coin. They just they need the
20:45
degenerate gambling dopium and then everyone else is either
20:50
holding or accumulating. So what is the winning play
20:53
here? It is obviously accumulating
20:56
Bitcoin and taking it into self custody.
20:57
I think that's the it's literally the, you know, the
21:00
only move to to win right now is just continuing to stack
21:04
Bitcoin. Even in the face of all of this
21:06
craziness, even in the face of confusion and not understanding
21:09
what's going on and everyone being completely wrong about the
21:12
Bitcoin price, the winning move is stacking Bitcoin and taking
21:16
it into cold storage. I think that's it's the only
21:18
move to be doing right now. Whether we know what's going on
21:21
with the price or not, that's the only move because that's
21:24
what you're seeing the big players do.
21:26
So at the same time that a lot of people are panicking, same
21:29
time that people are talking about scaling out in the four
21:32
year cycle is in what are you seeing from billion dollar,
21:36
trillion dollar institutions They're.
21:39
Saying to buy. They're saying goodbye.
21:41
Morgan Morgan Stanley recently announced that they sold $100
21:45
million worth of Bitcoin to their ultra wealthy clients.
21:49
So definitely, you know, wealthy people are buying, they're
21:53
they're placing their bets and maybe they're placing them
21:56
because they saw that an all time high happened not too long
21:59
ago and that they're still, you know, according to the cycles,
22:04
we're supposed to have another all time high.
22:07
However, I like what this person on X is saying.
22:12
The more we pay attention to the ETF flow, they will control more
22:16
market activities. And I think that's the signal
22:18
here. That's totally the signal here.
22:20
I think like we have to stop making the conversation about
22:26
the ETFs and stop looking at that as a market signal.
22:29
And we have to do exactly what Opti just said, accumulate more
22:34
Bitcoin than you had yesterday and put it into self custody.
22:38
At some point, something's going to have to break.
22:41
And these people are are like, exactly just like like son of
22:47
SAT said, these people, these players are buying because their
22:50
time horizon is an 80 years. I'm dead.
22:55
It's true, though. It's true.
22:57
And so, yeah, I, I just. He followed it up my my pleb as
23:03
time horizon is next year. Same, same, same.
23:08
Yeah, they can afford to wait all of this time and shake wheat
23:11
cans out. But we had expectations.
23:14
We had different things on our minds.
23:16
And, you know, now the economy is is taking a turn.
23:20
And I think that it's saying with buying these ETFs for, you
23:25
know, for better or for worse, they're saying that they want
23:27
Bitcoin. When will they realize that
23:29
these ETFs are actually worthless and they're giving all
23:32
of their power to the institutions.
23:34
I'm not sure these institutions have a total spell on them.
23:38
They're hypnotized and they think, oh, they're going to make
23:41
me rich someday. Oh, my 20% returns.
23:44
Like, that's totally good enough for them, but it's not good
23:47
enough for us US. And it's not good enough for us
23:51
because it just enables the system that we are trying so
23:55
hard to get out of. It's not so much about the price
23:58
going down that bothers me, It's the loss of time.
24:02
It's that we're wasting time enabling these people who are
24:06
ruining us, who are ruining the country, not just financially,
24:10
but culturally. We are literal serfs.
24:12
People my age cannot afford a house because of the system that
24:17
they have built and I'm just sick of it.
24:20
I really thought that price go up would make regular people
24:24
understand why they needed Bitcoin.
24:27
Unfortunately, we're going to have to probably go through some
24:29
more pain before that happens. But I, you know, it's fine
24:35
because we have Bitcoin. It's in self custody.
24:37
We're just going to probably have to wait a little bit
24:39
longer. Well, Sophie Price did not go up
24:41
enough for normie retails to come into Bitcoin.
24:45
Yeah. Like obviously, obviously,
24:48
obviously 126 because that was like the bear Case, No or like.
24:55
Yeah. I mean, I think this is worse
24:57
than the bear case. We we were expecting a positive
25:01
year, not a negative slash flat year, so.
25:04
This is literally the bear case. 90K was the bear case, 150K was.
25:09
No, I don't even think. I don't even think the bear case
25:12
was negative like the bear case was at least a little positive.
25:15
Yeah, well, right now we're sitting at 89 K, So like, you
25:18
have a point there. But yeah, I just, everything is
25:22
wrecked. And I think it's ever since
25:23
these institutions came in, I think, you know, on one side,
25:27
great. Like the normies are adopting,
25:30
but what are they adopting? They're adopting trash.
25:33
They're literally adopting trash on the street.
25:36
And then they're giving it to these institutions and they're
25:39
saying thank you and they're putting Bitcoin in their pockets
25:43
in their self custody. So congratulations, you played
25:46
yourself. Yeah, it's really, be careful
25:50
what you wish for. Bitcoiners have been asking for
25:52
the institution for years now they're here and we literally
25:55
have, as that Fox News clip said in the video, a wasted year in
26:02
Bitcoin. Literally like the the worst,
26:07
the worst quote UN quote, parabolic year ever.
26:10
It's completely flat, actually. It's still negative.
26:12
So, but I, I really do think that this is what's going on.
26:17
Yeah, Yeah. Agreed.
26:18
To me, this is, this is my working case right here.
26:21
I think this is exactly what's going on.
26:22
The Comet shouts out to cruising, Arizona cruisinger,
26:27
Arizona cruising, Arizona cruising.
26:30
Yeah, whatever. Cruising Arizona.
26:32
Cruisinger, Arizona. All right.
26:33
And he goes. They're just trying to scare you
26:35
all. That's all they're trying to do.
26:37
Retail and liquidation shake out, then it's coming.
26:40
I'm I'm fully on board on this. After all the conversations I
26:44
had, the fact that no one knows what's going on, to me, this is
26:47
this. What makes the most sense is
26:49
this year is one of those years where it is a complete shake
26:52
out. We're seeing a transition from
26:55
essentially the old models, like all of the predictive kind of
26:59
indicators that we had for Bitcoin being completely broken.
27:02
All our models are broken. No one has any idea what's going
27:05
on. I'm sure there's a few people
27:07
that do, but to me, this is exactly what's going on.
27:10
This is the the year where your conviction is tested.
27:13
This is where you realize that all of the price action is
27:17
literally just trying to shake you out.
27:19
Because again, my basic premise is if you had to wait 16 years
27:23
to get into Bitcoin, and then finally, basically on the year
27:27
when you can actually go into Bitcoin, how do you acquire a
27:31
big chunk of Bitcoin? You have to get it out of the
27:33
hands of the hodlers. And the only way to really do
27:36
that is you shake them out of their position.
27:39
Well, there's actually two ways. And we've seen one work pretty
27:41
good. The, you know, Wall Street
27:43
products incentivize you via your own greed to give up your
27:47
your Bitcoin keys or second, just pure demoralization and
27:51
capitulation and essentially have you sell out.
27:54
So now's the time to again, just follow what they're doing and
27:58
that is accumulating more Bitcoin, making sure, I mean,
28:01
they're not taking into self custody, but this is how we win.
28:04
Accumulate more Bitcoin, take it into self custody.
28:07
Doesn't matter about the price. Yes, we like to watch the price
28:10
because it's fun. It does tell us a lot about
28:13
maybe the general sentiment of what's going on, but that is
28:18
what's happening. You are getting demoralized
28:20
right now. The shakeout is happening.
28:21
Liquidity has been dry across the board and I think, I think
28:27
we're all being tested right now.
28:28
It's been a long year, a long year of a I, I can't even call
28:32
it a stable coin anymore because we're down at least a stable
28:35
coin, you know, holds value and it's supposedly stable as of
28:38
now, we're losing value. It's lost value this year
28:42
anyways anyways. Again, it's the first time that
28:46
this has ever happened in the history of Bitcoin.
28:48
All your models are broken now, for real, because we had a
28:52
little bit of hope for November and December, but now even
28:55
December, they're saying, oh, you know what that thing that we
28:59
said about printing more money, we might be taking it back.
29:03
JK. And again, like people are
29:06
saying, oh, you hate your own subscribers, You like you guys
29:09
are being bearish. Whatever.
29:10
We're not being bearish. I'm just mad at the people who
29:15
don't get it yet. I'm frustrated.
29:17
I'm losing my patience with people who are just not
29:20
understanding. It's not clocking for these
29:23
people that they shouldn't be buying Bitcoin through BlackRock
29:28
or through Fidelity. They should be buying Bitcoin,
29:32
either mining it peer-to-peer or, you know, fine.
29:35
Like if you want to go on Coinbase or, or actually you
29:39
should go on bitcoinwell.com where it goes straight into self
29:42
custody. That would be the best way to
29:44
buy Bitcoin actually. But they just don't get it.
29:48
And that's what I'm frustrated with.
29:50
I'm frustrated with people. I want, I, I just want, I want
29:55
people to get it already without suffering as much.
29:59
I want minimal suffering. You cannot avoid the suffering.
30:03
I know. The suffering is how you earn
30:06
your stripes. I do know that I and I and I say
30:09
that a lot on this show, like things are going to get really
30:12
bad before we actually see people understand the
30:16
ramifications of Bitcoin and why Fiat is just not working
30:20
anymore. However, a girl can hope, right?
30:25
No, there's no hope, laughs Sophie.
30:28
No, no, I, I, I personally, I don't think you should be
30:33
selling out right now. Do not sell the bottom right
30:35
now. I don't.
30:37
I also don't think we are going into, you know an 80% bear
30:42
market. But again, at this point, no one
30:45
has any clue. So on that note, I will tell you
30:49
guys to smash the like button, comment on the show, let us know
30:51
what you think about where we are going.
30:53
Is there any hope left for December?
30:55
And of course, subscribe if you like.
30:57
Sophie over here, she's dropping content.
30:59
We got Oceans, we got Dante, we got Rustin, Of course, we got
31:04
the most content period on any YouTube channel.
31:08
And before I go out, I do want to plug our sponsor Bitcoin.
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32:04
OK, let's keep it moving. I want to give a shout out to
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stampseed.com store. Alrighty then guys, the current
33:27
Bitcoin price is wait, hold on, do I have a let me see if I have
33:31
the right I need some sound effects for this one.
33:35
Let me see. I don't.
33:37
Know. No.
33:38
Do I not have it in this one? Damn, I don't have it in here.
33:42
OK sorry guys, sorry for the delay I don't have it in here.
33:45
Anyways, the current Bitcoin price is $89,600 which is a -29%
33:52
decline from all time high. The current market cap is $1.79
33:56
trillion. Remember when we were at like
33:58
2.25 and that was like so fun. And here we can't hold on to $2
34:03
trillion market cap anyways. Remember when Bitcoin didn't
34:07
feel like a huge Black Friday sale all the time?
34:12
Those were good times. Yeah, that was fun.
34:14
OK. And the current block height is
34:16
924,321. All right, guys.
34:21
So as we are all in the face of seeing all of this craziness,
34:27
all of the institutions out there, all of the big banks are
34:30
all making, you know, Bitcoin signals we can go lower.
34:34
Let's trust. Yeah.
34:37
I I thought this was kind of interesting, this one, this
34:39
one's from Citibank. Again, what do they really know?
34:43
Maybe the institutions do have a better grasp of what's going on
34:46
in the space right now since everyone else is lost.
34:49
But this is their analysis that came out yesterday.
34:52
I thought it was pretty interesting.
34:54
In your note, Dirk, correct me if I have this wrong.
34:57
What you know, we're trying to find explanations for what's
34:59
going on with Bitcoin. Were you putting that on
35:01
tightening liquidity? That is one of the explanations.
35:05
So there are a couple of things going on in Bitcoin that are
35:08
interesting. First there was a flash crash in
35:10
early October and that you know, for Bitcoin itself it was a 14%
35:16
move down over 2 days. Maybe not that drastic, but some
35:19
of the old coins really got got sold much, much harder.
35:23
And after this flash crash, we saw that the flows into the
35:28
Bitcoin ETFs and so forth really changed.
35:31
So the flows really never recovered.
35:34
And so retail was apparently somewhat shocked by that day and
35:38
we saw outflows. The other thing that happened is
35:41
that I think a lot of the institutional investors trade
35:45
Bitcoin with a bit of a trend following mindset.
35:48
And so we broke some of the moving averages that they tend
35:50
to look at and that is also reducing the source of demand.
35:54
But the Third Point is what you're mentioning and that is
35:57
that the liquidity which we measure by bank reserves on the
36:01
Fed balance sheet dropped by a bit more than 500 billion.
36:04
And that happened because the Treasury increased the Treasury
36:08
general account at the Fed by sending a lot of T-bills.
36:12
And there were two reasons for that.
36:14
One is why this TJ account was so high. 1 is that that during
36:20
the government shutdown, the treasure didn't spend as much.
36:23
So so that account rose mechanically on the back of
36:25
that. But secondly, they did sell more
36:28
T-bills than is typical and and so we are thinking going forward
36:33
the liquidity squeeze. So that explanation for the
36:37
Bitcoin weakness should actually get much better because we
36:39
expect TGA to at the Bay least, flatten out and probably decline
36:44
being bank reserves and liquidity should improve between
36:47
now and the end, partly because of the reopening and partly
36:50
because the Treasury sold so many tables already.
36:54
Interesting take. I, I mean, like, who knows if
36:59
this guy's right, Everyone's like and this guy's a clown.
37:02
I would like to know who your connect at the Fed is, who's
37:06
your who's your inside source? Because yeah, that's the other
37:11
thing I'm tired of everyone just like saying that they know
37:14
what's going to happen. Like all of this speculation is
37:18
actually just absolute nonsense because everything we thought
37:23
was going to happen, the total opposite happened.
37:25
So should we just like play the opposite day game at?
37:30
This point in inverse the ultimate inverse Kramer I'm.
37:35
Dead. We yeah, so he said liquidity
37:40
scenario is going to improve. So it should pump, I guess at
37:44
this point, we all know it's going to just continue to dump,
37:47
I guess. But he he does have a point.
37:51
And Sophie's actually going to do a video on this one in
37:53
particular to what's going on in Japan.
37:56
But an interesting kind of metric that we're seeing around
38:00
the world is that the money printer is starting to turn on
38:03
whether that's in Japan. It looks like India's about to
38:06
do it looks like the UK is about to do it looks like the USQT is
38:10
about to end in about two weeks. It seems like the money printers
38:14
are about to turn on. So if that is the case and we do
38:18
see a boom in liquidity globally around the world, I mean,
38:23
usually that means that Bitcoin's going to do good.
38:25
Though we did see a general break from the global M2 supply
38:30
and Bitcoin. I know everyone was, you know,
38:32
touting that chart for for months that this was going to
38:35
make Bitcoin pump. It's completely broken at this
38:39
point. It's completely uncorrelated at
38:41
this point. But I have been seeing people in
38:43
the chat essentially say that once the government shutdown is
38:46
over, that that's when things should start pumping.
38:50
I'd I never found too much, too much weight in the in that take,
38:54
but here we are. Everyone is looking at something
38:58
very similar. We have been in a very tight
39:02
liquidity cycle and it seems like that is easing, pun
39:06
intended. It looks like quantitative
39:08
easing is back on the table. Obviously they're going to name
39:10
it something differently. They're not going to go out
39:12
there and say, you know, quantitative easing squared
39:15
because market knows what that means.
39:17
So they're going to try to cloak that conversation in something
39:20
else. But it all goes back to a very
39:23
simple idea. They cannot stop this train.
39:25
The big print is coming. They have to inject liquidity
39:29
into the system. And I mean, Sophie said in a
39:31
minute ago, you know, when you look at the Trump administration
39:34
and what's going on, like they have to figure out the economy
39:37
and this is going around globally.
39:39
All the kind of, I don't want to say like revolt, but all the
39:43
people upset around the world right now there there people are
39:47
usually kind of connecting it to a couple of ideas.
39:50
One the main one that we would probably kind of agree with is
39:54
that the economy is so bad for everyone.
39:56
Even though they're coming out here, even though Scott Besson
39:59
comes out every other week and he's like, the economy is great,
40:02
guys. Look at the numbers.
40:04
You know, just by your experience, yes.
40:06
So you know by just your experience that it's not doing
40:11
that good. And so they have to figure out
40:13
the economy or else. Not only is everyone going to
40:17
get poorer, but the people in power are going to have a big
40:20
headache on their hands. We already saw, we already saw
40:24
this happen earlier this month in New York.
40:28
That's all I'm going to say. Nothing beats the word free and
40:35
that and actually it gets stronger and stronger every time
40:38
the economy gets weaker and weaker.
40:41
So I don't know what they're going to do, but they're going
40:44
to have to do something. Also, I feel like my mic is
40:47
really, really low puts. Put a one in the chat if you
40:50
guys are hearing me. You seem you seem quiet to me
40:53
too. So at good volume levels.
40:55
I'll turn you up. 880 this much? Better, all right, all right,
41:00
we, we'll figure it out. But I, I was saying that before
41:02
anyways, anyways, I, I'm going to go and do the, the, the news
41:07
now, because there was something that we did miss coming out of
41:10
El Salvador, which is I think a greater trend we're seeing, one,
41:15
the nation state level adoption going on.
41:18
But two, we got to remember the saga that El Salvador's been in
41:23
with the IMF recently and a lot of the backlash they've been
41:26
getting. So they did a very interesting
41:28
move, I believe it was Monday. So we're going to, we're going
41:32
to speculate a little bit on this and one more commercial
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Love it. OK, as I was saying so obviously
44:48
for years now, El Salvador has been one of the headline stories
44:53
in Bitcoin. They were a tiny country.
44:57
They elected a president. He went full Bitcoin, and you
45:02
could arguably say that because he went full Bitcoin, he was
45:05
able to turn his country around. But you can definitively say
45:10
that because he adopted Bitcoin, he added a lot of scrutiny and
45:14
of course a lot of attention to his country.
45:17
Now earlier this year, towards the end of no, it was earlier
45:21
this year. Sorry guys, my time is just,
45:23
it's been so warped by no action in Bitcoin all year long.
45:28
Earlier this year, we did have a news story coming out where El
45:33
Salvador made a deal with the IMF for a loan.
45:36
And part of that deal was that they could not add more Bitcoin
45:41
to it, though at the very same time it did seem like they were
45:45
adding, you know, a couple of coins a day.
45:47
They they were doing the promo, hey, we're still buying Bitcoin
45:51
even though essentially the deal told them that they couldn't buy
45:55
Bitcoin. The IMF came out and said
45:56
they're actually not buying Bitcoin.
45:58
There was a whole kind of, I don't know, argument drama on
46:03
Twitter about where they actually buy more Bitcoin or was
46:06
the IMF rules and the what they were saying, the spokesperson
46:11
really what was going on that they're not buying any more
46:13
Bitcoin. A lot of Bitcoiners were saying
46:15
they were actually just transferring some Bitcoin from
46:18
other wallets into their main reserve.
46:20
Well, we saw this, which is very interesting, and it does one
46:25
lead to the greater idea that this year, even though the price
46:28
has been pretty stagnant, not only on institutions getting
46:32
into Bitcoin, but the nation states are also kind of buying
46:36
and positioning themselves to get into Bitcoin, Especially
46:39
after Trump came out and said the US is going to be the
46:41
Bitcoin superpower of the world. We've seen a lot of countries
46:44
come out and say either they're mining Bitcoin, they're trying
46:48
to do strategic Bitcoin reserves.
46:50
But I'm going to start here with El Salvador.
46:52
And I don't know if you guys saw this, but this is very
46:56
interesting. And here we have Naiba Kelly
46:58
just tweeting HOA and he is doing a screenshot of the
47:05
Bitcoin office, El Salvador Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
47:07
Now I don't think this would be news if it was just adding a
47:11
couple more coins. I think the reason that I want
47:14
to talk about this and I think this is news is they added $100
47:18
million worth of Bitcoin or rather more clearly 1900 or
47:24
1098.19 Bitcoin in one chunk. And if you look at this is
47:30
Bitcoin, Bitcoin balance is crazy and we haven't seen any
47:33
clarification on this whether this means that they just bought
47:37
100 mil of Bitcoin in direct defiance of the IMF kind of loan
47:42
obligations. But my view on this is that
47:47
seems to be exactly what they did.
47:49
If a like before we saw them essentially transfer, you know,
47:55
a couple coins here or there. I think the, the most we saw
47:58
throughout the year was maybe like 10 coins at a time.
48:01
And many people were saying that that was because they were
48:04
transferring from other wallets. Here we are.
48:07
They add 1000 plus coins at one single time, $100 million of
48:13
Bitcoin at one single time. Now we haven't seen much
48:16
clarification on what's going on with the IMF loan there.
48:20
There was a conversation that oh, we're finalizing this and
48:23
the money's coming through. But now I don't know this.
48:27
This does seem like a direct defiance from Naive Boo Kelly to
48:31
the IMFI could be speculating. I could be, you know, adding to
48:35
the rumor mill. But when I saw this, I'm like,
48:39
are they just, they just smashed bought $100 million in direct
48:43
defiance to this IMF loan because that we haven't seen
48:46
this amount. Even if you believe that they
48:48
are just transferring coins from one wallet to their main wallet,
48:53
it's hard to see how they could just have, you know, 1000 plus
48:56
coins just chilling, not doing anything and not on their
49:00
official balance sheet. Remember, this country has AGDP
49:03
of $32 billion, like $100 million is a significant amount
49:08
of their total GDP. So that's the first topic here.
49:11
I'll, I'll get your views on this self real quick.
49:14
What do you think is going on? I think this is like the Sydney
49:18
Sweeney interview where she's, like doing her death stare and
49:22
she's like, what are you going to do about it?
49:25
What are you going to do about it?
49:26
IMF. Yeah.
49:27
You told us to stop buying Bitcoin.
49:29
We bought more. A shit ton more now.
49:34
It was interesting because Matt Gaetz was tweeting about this
49:37
and he's like, are you paying attention to what is happening
49:41
in El Salvador yet? He should he.
49:43
He should have really been Pam Bondi's job for real though.
49:50
Don't even get me started. Don't even I Yeah, yeah.
49:56
Yeah, that should have been the one.
49:57
OK, Anyways, so like tell me in the chat what you think is going
50:01
on here, but kind of updating this, you know, the nation state
50:05
Bitcoin rush is on, of course, El Salvador just bought 100
50:08
million or 1098 coins. Also rumors this week that are
50:14
actually not rumors, sorry. Also Abu Dhabi funds now holds
50:17
900 million plus in Bitcoin. They are holding Bitcoin ETFSI
50:22
think they 3X their Bitcoin ETF buys that just came out.
50:26
Of course Luxembourg allocated 7 million to a BTCETF.
50:31
It wasn't that much but you know they're they're starting to play
50:34
the game. And of course, Czech Republic
50:36
also launched their $1,000,000 government test portfolio, which
50:41
is by any other name a strategic Bitcoin reserve here.
50:44
So things are picking up and it really kind of goes into the
50:48
greater conversation, you know, maybe of what is the US doing.
50:54
And also maybe maybe our mistake is that we are pricing Bitcoin
51:01
in Fiat, maybe that's. What else do we price it in?
51:05
Well, that's jars of Mayo. No, no, we have to to, I mean,
51:08
for now we have to price it in Bitcoin.
51:10
But I mean, sorry, in, in dollars.
51:12
But maybe that is kind of like the mistake, just how I said we
51:15
have to take our framing away from, you know, the value of
51:19
these ETFs and stop correlating it to the value of Bitcoin.
51:22
Maybe what's going to have to happen is that we stop
51:25
correlating the value of the dollar to the value of Bitcoin.
51:28
Because if all of these institutions are buying, if
51:31
governments are buying, if this is what's happening, then maybe
51:37
maybe that's the signal that we all keep missing.
51:41
We keep valuing it in dollars, but the dollar is actually just
51:45
losing value. So what are we doing?
51:50
What I look, I love this conversation, but I always go
51:54
back to then what do you value things in?
51:58
No one can ever answer that one, but my boys in the chat are
52:01
starting to catch on. When Mayo chart When can we see
52:05
a chart of Bitcoin priced in jars of Mayo because no one
52:09
likes the dollar? You know, maybe, maybe you price
52:11
it in, you know, GDP or you price it in the like.
52:15
Well, I do like Petrosat. When we when we do, you know,
52:19
Bitcoin priced in oil, that's when we really.
52:22
Went like, what's the next most valuable thing?
52:26
Food. I don't know.
52:29
Water. But then then it's like then
52:34
then we just admit we're bartering.
52:36
That's why I like the like dollar price is the best form of
52:38
value. It's so confusing.
52:40
Or best thing the price for value well.
52:41
Yeah, but, and it feels confusing and it feels like a
52:44
very meta kind of concept. But what if we really just have
52:52
to like take the dollar out of like the.
52:56
Frame we price in gold. We price it, we could price it
52:58
in gold, we could go back to that and then just like make
53:03
Bitcoin the new dollar here, even though you know, obviously
53:06
like that's going to break every normies brain.
53:09
It's breaking my brain right now, but I just I think that's
53:14
the mistake that we're making because it just doesn't make
53:16
sense. I'm sorry.
53:17
We're going to come back to this cycle in this feedback loop that
53:21
is going on in my mind, how is it possible that governments and
53:26
the richest institutions in the world and all of these people
53:29
are buying Bitcoin? It just feels like they are
53:32
hedging value into that lifeboat.
53:36
It feels like they no longer believe in the dollar.
53:40
And I think that what's happening in Japan is indicative
53:43
of that. It's a huge billboard saying,
53:46
hey, you are now entering the danger zone where Fiat no longer
53:51
exists because it's actually worthless.
53:54
It's happened to other countries before.
53:57
I'm Venezuelan. I've seen this movie play out
53:59
before. And I just, there has to be
54:04
something that we're not seeing, gang.
54:05
I'm just like. Ron, Ron P says price in
54:09
Restoration Hardware couches. Sophie Yes, yes, no, this this
54:15
comment here and and I'm not reading this just because you
54:17
gave us money, but I appreciate it.
54:19
Matthew 10 Canadian dollars he goes.
54:21
I've been watching Bitcoin price comparing it against a basket of
54:24
commodities, oil, beef, rice, etcetera.
54:28
I I usually like if I try to disconnect it from dollars, it's
54:32
usually priced in gold that that I look at.
54:35
But I'm really, I swear that once we get someone said Bitcoin
54:39
priced in energy and I I like that, but that's kind of like a
54:43
vague term. So that's why I usually go
54:45
Bitcoin priced in oil. Or Bitcoin priced in time.
54:50
How do you? How do you value your time right
54:53
now? Yeah, but that's suggests
54:54
subjective. How do we have a universal time
54:57
value for everyone that's 24 hours in a day.
55:00
Value your coin in 24 hours in a day.
55:04
I. In what you do with those 24
55:07
hours, Beyoncé's 24 hours aren't the same as my 20. 4 hours.
55:11
That's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying though,
55:13
it's subjective. It's well, but everything is
55:17
subjective. All value is.
55:18
Subjective, OK, subjective value of theory.
55:21
Here we go. Such a bitcoiner, such a
55:23
bitcoiner. Anyways, I'm going to wrap
55:26
today's show up in the culture with.
55:28
There is some interesting stuff that's going to happen a little
55:31
later on today that a lot of people are watching because I
55:36
think it's going to it's going to give us some some signals
55:38
about where the general economy is.
55:40
So we'll be right back and we'll talk about it.
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freedom. All right, guys, we are back.
57:47
So today we are going to see the Fed minutes in about 20 minutes.
57:56
And a lot of people are saying right now actually let me let me
57:59
pull up this this article here. I, I didn't actually save it for
58:03
you guys. I didn't really think I was
58:05
going to bring it up, but there was a CNN article this morning.
58:08
And of course, CNN, I know, I know, I already know what you're
58:12
saying, but it was talking about the current Bitcoin price action
58:18
and what they think is going on. And they're not the only person
58:21
to say this, but it's just, you know, it's it's an official
58:25
narrative here or or sorry, an official publication here.
58:29
And it goes by why crypto is melting down and stock stocks
58:34
keep falling. Now, I'm not going to read this
58:37
whole thing, but there is one little segment that I want to
58:41
bring up because it's going to kind of touch in on the greater
58:46
idea going on. Wait, was it this one?
58:50
Yeah. OK, here we go.
58:51
So, but we have Bitcoin has struggled as a result of selling
58:55
pressure from long term holders taking profits, but also
58:58
uncertainty around Fed policy, the liquidity environment and
59:02
other macro conditions, which is something we've been talking
59:05
about for a while. There's something I've been
59:07
saying for a for a long time. So what is happening later
59:11
today? One, of course, Fed minutes in
59:12
about 20 minutes and then two, the NVIDIA reporting call is
59:20
happening later today. And the reason that most people
59:23
are watching this one, of course the Fed is the general
59:26
uncertainty of what's going on. What's the Fed going to do?
59:28
Are they going to cut rates? What's the CPI numbers?
59:30
What the hell is going on right now?
59:32
That's that's essentially what everyone is waiting on No.
59:37
And the NVIDIA call earnings and the reason people are pointing
59:42
to these two things, one, of course the Fed, they're, they're
59:45
the ones out here that that make the call.
59:48
And these are the signals that people essentially trade off of.
59:52
And then the NVIDIA earnings call is the whole like AI bubble
59:56
that's going on right now, or I call it a kind of AI bubble.
59:59
It could go way higher. I'm not the biggest AI guy out
1:00:02
there. I, I understand that the stocks
1:00:04
are doing really well, but people are watching these two
1:00:07
things as a general view of what's going to happen in the
1:00:11
greater economy. Again, if you're looking at the
1:00:14
S&P 500, all of the gains and I forget the exact number, but.
1:00:18
Like all the gains on the S&P 500 come from about 5:00 to 7:00
1:00:22
stocks, and everyone else is just, you know, going along for
1:00:26
the ride. It's basically being driven by
1:00:28
tech and AI stocks. That's what's driving the S&P 5
1:00:31
hundreds. Put another way, there's about 5
1:00:34
stocks right now, five companies that are literally driving the
1:00:38
entire U.S. economy right now. And so depending on what's going
1:00:42
on with these NVIDIA earnings call, a lot of people are going
1:00:45
to have a general understanding of what's going on in the
1:00:48
economy now. We didn't cover it on the show,
1:00:52
but this last week we saw, you know, a very interesting move.
1:00:56
Michael Bury, of course, infamous for the big short
1:00:59
movie. He put on a billion dollar short
1:01:03
on NVIDIA and Palantir. Well, a couple days later, we
1:01:07
saw Peter Thiel fully divest from NVIDIA again in the AI
1:01:12
stock bubble. And now This is why everyone is
1:01:15
waiting on pins and needles for the Fed minutes.
1:01:18
That's about to happen. And of course, what happened
1:01:20
with Nvidia's earning calls. Now one of my friends, I think
1:01:25
he did a pretty good analysis of what's going on here.
1:01:28
Of course, shots at the CJ Constantinos and he goes pretty
1:01:32
good chance at today's release of Fed minutes will reveal
1:01:35
recognition of economic weakness.
1:01:38
CME Fed futures may flip flop again as a December rate cut
1:01:42
chance increases. Personally, I think Tradfi is
1:01:45
missing the market signal by focusing too much on the US
1:01:48
Treasury yield curve. If all the money that went into
1:01:51
gold and silver instead went out into the US Treasury yield
1:01:54
curve, then there would be a steep yield curve inversion.
1:01:58
That's the signal Tradfi is watching in order to quote react
1:02:01
to economic weakness and really lower rates.
1:02:04
Tradfi is ignoring the fact that the US dollar has was devalued
1:02:08
by 50% against gold in the last year.
1:02:12
Many bond vigilantes are no longer buying bonds to short
1:02:15
slash hedge stocks. Instead they are buying gold.
1:02:18
This lack of demand on U.S. Treasuries is keeping yield
1:02:21
curve relatively flat. Flat in fact.
1:02:24
It's steepening. QE coming.
1:02:26
It's only it's only a matter of time.
1:02:28
Once again, the Fed could be blindsided and have to react to
1:02:32
a crisis they created instead of proactively loosening with
1:02:35
liquidity. We are about to leave the bear
1:02:38
market macro and enter into the bull market macro.
1:02:42
Bitcoin was able to put in a new all time high in the tightest
1:02:45
conditions it's ever been through.
1:02:47
Some say it's underperforming, but with U.S.
1:02:50
Treasury yield at 4% plus, I'd say Bitcoin has overperformed.
1:02:55
Well, at this point, we, we literally haven't performed.
1:02:58
But you know, I see what you're saying, CJ And when monetary
1:03:01
conditions are soon loosened with lower rates and liquidity
1:03:05
injections, Bitcoin will go back to being the best performance
1:03:08
asset in the world. Prepare accordingly.
1:03:12
So while most people are looking at the Fed minutes later today
1:03:17
and NVIDIA call earnings, it's basically all saying the same
1:03:21
thing. Remember what Trump's been
1:03:22
saying about Jerome Powell? He's been calling them too late
1:03:25
Powell for weeks now. I think literally this morning,
1:03:29
was it this morning or last night?
1:03:31
This morning he came out and basically just trolled Jay
1:03:34
Powell more. He said, hey, being the the Fed
1:03:37
governor's the easiest job in the world.
1:03:39
All you got to do is play golf for 28 and 29 minutes and then
1:03:41
talk for an hour. He's just roasting Jay Powell
1:03:45
right now. So he's about to go out in about
1:03:47
15 minutes. I wouldn't be surprised if we
1:03:50
see some more general volatility in the markets.
1:03:53
And then later today we will be seeing the NVIDIA call earnings,
1:03:58
which I think as CJ said at the very top of this, he said will
1:04:04
reveal the recognition of economic weakness.
1:04:06
So if if you see the price around markets later today
1:04:12
become extremely volatile, then you know where the root cause of
1:04:17
all of this is, is of course Fed minutes and about 15 minutes.
1:04:21
And then later on today the NVIDIA call earnings or maybe I
1:04:24
I don't know exactly the time, but I'm sure later today is when
1:04:27
we will all know exactly what's going on.
1:04:30
So hey, look, the forest from the trees is we will finally see
1:04:37
some things happen. I think there will be, you know,
1:04:40
a general recognition of what's going on.
1:04:42
And again, while we don't care about these signals, the people
1:04:47
that are deploying capital do care about these signals.
1:04:51
And if they're waiting on the sidelines trying to find the
1:04:53
right position to allocate their capital, then we could be seeing
1:04:59
some interesting stuff play out later today.
1:05:02
So that's what I would be watching later on tonight or
1:05:05
rather basically right when the show is over.
1:05:08
And then later, I'm I'm sure tomorrow, well, maybe we like,
1:05:13
maybe the Bitcoin price is going to go down to British Huddle's
1:05:17
87K price point. Maybe not, maybe not.
1:05:22
So, so are we going down further?
1:05:26
I don't know bro. I think that's the general
1:05:29
conclusion probably going down hold on pull on the Bitcoin
1:05:34
minute chart when he goes on and we.
1:05:35
Can all be psyched. Up No, no, we, I'm, I'm gonna
1:05:41
I'm gonna wrap up a little early today, guys.
1:05:43
So no minute chart, guys, No, no minute chart for you guys.
1:05:48
But that's what I would be watching.
1:05:52
That's what I would be watching later on today Yeah, this one
1:05:58
all right last comment I, I I'm kind of on this boat right here.
1:06:02
So we have a JPJB supra he goes the insiders in the government
1:06:08
know the numbers are bad so we dumping into fed news then
1:06:12
market will correct to the upside.
1:06:15
That is also my general take. I mean, I don't know if you guys
1:06:19
heard one last note, but it was also said that we aren't going
1:06:24
to get any fed data because because of the government
1:06:27
shutdown, we're not going to get any of the numbers for October.
1:06:30
So I, I think this is, this is probably the clearest take here.
1:06:35
They know the numbers are bad. It's going to dump and then I'll
1:06:38
probably correct to the upside. So that would be kind of my, my
1:06:45
take. That would be that would be my
1:06:47
view on what's going on here. Foxy, just remember our tiers
1:06:52
sustain us. Yes, 100%.
1:06:55
All right, guys, are they going to stop printing money?
1:06:59
No. No, they are not.
1:07:01
They're not. Actually, The money printer is
1:07:03
probably turning on guys, so position yourself now.
1:07:10
Yeah, this is what happened. October numbers.
1:07:13
October numbers were lost to the abyss.
1:07:16
At least that's the narrative they're saying.
1:07:18
Anyways, guys, we love you. We appreciate you.
1:07:22
Buckle up. Stack some sats, probably go
1:07:25
out, touch some grass, eat some good food, call your loved ones,
1:07:27
all that good stuff. We will be here tomorrow, even
1:07:32
if we're crying on the show TM hustling here we go again yo
1:07:36
it's literally got all right last thing it's literally like
1:07:39
the the GTA, the GTA meme like aw shit here we go again.
1:07:44
That's where we are guys. That is where we are.
1:07:49
All right, peace out. It's your boy Opti.
1:07:52
I will see you guys tomorrow for another one.
1:07:55
We will recap all of the carnage.
1:07:57
If there is carnage tomorrow, on that note, have a good one.
1:08:01
Peace out. Today's episode was brought to
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you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
1:08:08
mission to enable financial independence.