Latest / The Smart Cookies podcast / AI empires are here - what are they after? With Nick Srnicek
Transcript
- 0:04Nick Srnicek is Senior Lecturer in Digital Economy
- 0:06at King's College London. He's also the author
- 0:09of Platform Capitalism, After Work, A History
- 0:12of the Home, and The Fight for Free Time. And
- 0:15the most recent book, Silicon Empires, The Fight
- 0:18for the Future, not out just yet, I believe,
- 0:21but soon, definitely soon enough to hopefully
- 0:24warrant this conversation. Nick, welcome to the
- 0:27show. Thank you very much for having me. So this
- 0:31isn't going to be a conversation about the technological
- 0:33aspect of AI and its progress. However, for the
- 0:36sake of discussion, I do have to ask you whether
- 0:40you believe that current AI is groundbreakingly
- 0:44transformative or not, because there seems to
- 0:46be like two camps and they both seem to have
- 0:49pretty convincing arguments. So in one corner,
- 0:51you have folks saying AI is literally five seconds
- 0:54away from becoming Skynet and murdering us all.
- 0:57And then on the other. There's other people saying
- 1:01it's a massively overhyped guessing machine,
- 1:04nothing more than a glorified autocorrect. So
- 1:08I was wondering, which camp do you fall into?
- 1:12Yeah, neither is the short answer. So let me
- 1:17set it up. I think that there's a variety of
- 1:19different camps, and you set it up quite nicely
- 1:20there. The one side says... These large language
- 1:24models, generative AI, chat GPT, they're what
- 1:27are called stochastic parrots, which I think
- 1:29is a beautiful term. And the idea is that they
- 1:32are effectively machines which are sophisticated
- 1:36text prediction machines. They predict, you know,
- 1:39you type in something and they'll predict what
- 1:41comes after that. And they're very, very good
- 1:43at it. but they're no better than a parrot at
- 1:47sort of repeating what humans can do. So they're
- 1:50stochastic parrots, and they're sort of based
- 1:51on this probability distribution of how language
- 1:54works. In that case, you know, these machines
- 1:57are fancy. They can do some interesting seeming
- 2:02things, but there's no real intelligence there,
- 2:04and there's nothing beyond some sophisticated
- 2:06pattern matching. On the other hand, you have
- 2:09people, and there's a lot of people within the
- 2:11sort of advanced AI labs who will say, This is
- 2:14the foundation for artificial general intelligence
- 2:17and then something like artificial super intelligence
- 2:20and AI, which is better than humans at every
- 2:25conceivable sort of task that we could imagine.
- 2:28And neither of these, I think, really get at
- 2:31what they actually do, these machines. I don't
- 2:34think that these large language models are the
- 2:36foundation for artificial super intelligence.
- 2:39They might be part of something like that. And
- 2:41I think. Something like artificial superintelligence
- 2:44is at least theoretically possible, but these
- 2:47are not sufficient to get us there. On the other
- 2:50hand, the stochastic para -critique, I think,
- 2:52misses that things are evolving. These machines
- 2:56are getting better and better at the sort of
- 2:59tasks that we want them to do. And I think it
- 3:02underplays the significant elements of what they
- 3:05actually can do already. So my sort of path is
- 3:08in between, and there's a recent paper that came
- 3:11out. I forget the two authors' names offhand,
- 3:14but it's called AI as a Normal Technology. And
- 3:18here, AI is a sort of transformative technology.
- 3:21akin to something like the steam engine or electricity
- 3:24or general purpose computing, but it's not something
- 3:28which is going to completely revolutionize the
- 3:31world. It's not artificial general intelligence,
- 3:33but it will have significant economic, political,
- 3:36and social impacts that will crucially take time
- 3:40to unfold. So it's not something which is going
- 3:43to happen, as you might hear from AI research
- 3:46labs, it's not going to happen over the next
- 3:48year. or two, it might take a decade or two decades
- 3:51for this stuff to unpack. I just have to ask
- 3:53this. Have you seen the infamous recent interview
- 3:55with Peter Thiel, Palantir's founder that he
- 3:59gave to New York Times? I mean, it's hard to
- 4:01watch it because the guy just sucks any sort
- 4:03of charisma out of the room instantly. I couldn't
- 4:06watch the whole thing. It was provoking my acid
- 4:08reflux. But I definitely saw the part where he
- 4:11was asked, this is all over TikTok now, where
- 4:14he was asked by the journalist whether he thinks
- 4:16the human race should survive. And Peter Thiel
- 4:19totally did not say. Yes, before he proceeded
- 4:23to babble on about the Antichrist and God knows
- 4:25what else. It was really odd. So I'm very confused.
- 4:29But I thought this might be a good starting point
- 4:32to ask, what's actually making these sweaty,
- 4:36awkward big tech or AI CEOs tick? What are they
- 4:39thinking? I think it's worth saying that there's
- 4:44not one unified sort of vision behind a lot of
- 4:47these leading AI people. And I think... oftentimes
- 4:50the criticisms of them sort of take the eccentricities
- 4:54of Peter Thiel and say, well, this is all Silicon
- 4:56Valley. I think Peter Thiel's approach is quite
- 5:00unique. I think somebody like Elon Musk has a
- 5:03different vision. And I think somebody like,
- 5:06you know, the CEOs of Microsoft and Google and
- 5:10Amazon have a completely different vision of
- 5:12what's going on here. So in my book, Silicon
- 5:16Empires, I try and distinguish between all of
- 5:18these different groups. And I think there's two
- 5:19core groups to think about. One is what we might
- 5:23call a sort of classic neoliberal focused on
- 5:26a global digital market sort of institution.
- 5:30And this is the big tech companies that we normally
- 5:32associate things like Apple and Amazon and Microsoft
- 5:36and Meta and Google. These companies have built
- 5:40their empires off of a global neoliberalized
- 5:43world, and they want to see that continue. On
- 5:47the other hand, you have groups which are much
- 5:50more prone to a sort of clash of civilizations
- 5:53or sort of geopolitical or sort of patriotic
- 5:57vision of what AI is supposed to be about. And
- 5:59they will talk your ear off about. AI, US versus
- 6:04China sort of AI race. I think Peter Thiel falls
- 6:07into that and Palantir is a major example of
- 6:09it. But you also have people like Palmer Luckey
- 6:12from Enduro. You have people like Alexander Wang
- 6:15from Scale AI, which is he's now a part of Meta.
- 6:19These people will vociferously argue that this
- 6:23is a race to AGI that the US needs to win as
- 6:28a sort of ostensibly democratic country but that's
- 6:31increasingly a sort of crazy claim to make and
- 6:35for them it is an existential sort of issue about
- 6:37who is going to win this race so for them it's
- 6:40not about a global neoliberalized world it is
- 6:43much more about american supremacy first and
- 6:47foremost over other countries so different camps
- 6:52but is there so i'm guessing the answer is no
- 6:54but i want to ask anyway There isn't a coherent
- 6:57set of ideas that are maybe a bit deeper than
- 7:00just the US supremacy over China animating these
- 7:04guys. It seems like it's a much more banal quest
- 7:07for power than occasionally, in Peter Thiel's
- 7:10case, dressed up in some nonsense about the Antichrist
- 7:13and Elon's case about colonizing Mars or whatever.
- 7:17Yeah, I think there is some genuine beliefs on
- 7:21their part that... They do see themselves as
- 7:24part of this larger, you know, almost cosmic
- 7:27scale sort of project, you know, interplanetary
- 7:30civilization and things like that. I think there
- 7:32is probably a general belief at some level that
- 7:36that is what they're aiming for. And this is
- 7:38also partly what motivates like the immense sacrifice
- 7:41of people and environments and communities today
- 7:44is because for them. this sort of virtuous future
- 7:48goal justifies any sort of sacrifices that are
- 7:52made today, particularly if it's not them. But
- 7:56at the same time, I do think that there is multiple
- 7:58different sort of ideologies at play. There's
- 8:00that sort of belief that AGI is the next stage
- 8:07of evolution, that, you know, humanity is a sort
- 8:12of passing phase and perhaps this is not a bad
- 8:14thing, at least in some of these ideologies.
- 8:17You have that interplanetary civilization idea
- 8:20that you sometimes hear Musk talking about. But
- 8:23I think first and foremost, it is a matter of
- 8:25power. And I think a lot of the behaviors that
- 8:28we see, we can understand by just saying who
- 8:32is benefiting from this in terms of power and
- 8:34profit. That to me fundamentally answers a lot
- 8:37of the questions about what is going on in the
- 8:39AI world today. Yeah, I mean, Elon Musk also
- 8:43keeps harping about the Roman Empire. And then
- 8:46there's also this, I don't know if you've heard
- 8:48of him, this Curtis Yarvin fella, apparently
- 8:51some sort of an American monarchist or something
- 8:54that's supposedly a bit of an ideological inspiration
- 8:57to a lot of these tech pros. I don't know if
- 8:59that's true and who's advocating for some sort
- 9:00of neo -feudalism or something. Have you heard
- 9:04of that about him? Yeah, I mean, Curtis Yarvin,
- 9:06he's a curious figure. I think in the most part,
- 9:09his influence is self -declared rather than actual.
- 9:14I don't think, you know, these sort of leading
- 9:19figures, Trump and... J .D. Vance. I mean, there's
- 9:24some connections there, but I don't think Yarvin
- 9:27has any sort of direct influence on what's going
- 9:29on in those cases. He's just a curious sort of
- 9:32side figure, which has presented himself as a
- 9:35much more influential character than he in fact
- 9:37is. Okay. That at least makes him a little bit
- 9:42more funny. Probably not intentionally. Okay,
- 9:46what about this transhumanism thing? a quest
- 9:50to extend life and possibly live forever. Is
- 9:55that a real kind of ideological tenet behind
- 9:59some of these companies? Yeah, I think absolutely.
- 10:01It's a part of Silicon Valley's sort of culture.
- 10:05You've got that crazy guy whose name I can't
- 10:08remember at the moment. Brian Johnson, I believe
- 10:10his name is. Yes, yes, exactly. Who's so obsessed
- 10:14with this, this longevity and, you know, I don't
- 10:17know, someday is probably going to get hit by
- 10:18a car. But there is, I think there is this longer,
- 10:23there's a longer history of this sort of thinking.
- 10:26And it's not just in Silicon Valley. You can
- 10:28go back and you can find it in the sort of Russian
- 10:30Cosmos movement and things like that. And, you
- 10:33know, trying to supersede death is a longstanding
- 10:37fascination of humanity. So I don't think it's.
- 10:41entirely unique to Silicon Valley or some sort
- 10:44of eccentricity of that particular culture. I
- 10:48think it's been there for a long time. But what
- 10:50you have in Silicon Valley is people with the
- 10:52power, the money, the time, and just the general
- 10:57resources, the technological resources to be
- 11:00able to follow this sort of goal in a way which
- 11:03is more advanced than. what other people have
- 11:07been able to do. So I think these people are
- 11:09following along a long sort of philosophical
- 11:12and ideological history of these things, but
- 11:16just taking it in a much more impactful way than
- 11:20what we've seen for most of history. But do you
- 11:24think these guys actually read like Mark Zuckerberg,
- 11:26Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, did they have some sort
- 11:29of like... education in humanities and they can
- 11:32track these ideas in their own mind or is this
- 11:36some sort of a patchwork and they're just taking
- 11:38what's useful you know at the moment as some
- 11:40sort of like window dressing when they have to
- 11:43say something but in reality it's more of a quest
- 11:46for power like you said i mean is elon musk like
- 11:49reading hegel in his spare time Or Sam Altman.
- 11:55I don't know. I have a hard time believing that.
- 11:57I think they've got some sort of half -baked
- 12:00ideas from when they were teenagers, and they've
- 12:02sort of drawn upon that as a foundation for their
- 12:05worldviews. I mean, certainly the sophistication
- 12:09of what they actually write and say doesn't seem
- 12:12to go beyond what a teenager could say. So their
- 12:17worldviews are not sophisticated in any significant
- 12:19way. But there are these, you know, Brian Johnson
- 12:22sort of characters, which are... perhaps more
- 12:25invested in it as an ideological project. And
- 12:28I think, you know, part of the risk of criticism
- 12:31is to pinpoint these very social media friendly
- 12:36characters and take them as representative of
- 12:39a much broader thing. I think it's really problematic
- 12:41to do that. They are curiosities and they're
- 12:45representative of something, but how representative
- 12:48are they of Silicon Valley in general or the
- 12:51tech world more broadly, I think is much more
- 12:54debatable. So I think some caution is needed
- 12:56there. I see. So you don't think that these guys
- 12:59that we've mentioned, for example, are not like
- 13:01the driving force behind this entire AI progression
- 13:05of movement that's happening right now. It's
- 13:07a much broader scope. It's more structural. In
- 13:11general, yes. In general, yes. I mean, I do think
- 13:14there is something like effective altruism's
- 13:18philosophical movement, which seems to have been
- 13:20quite pervasive amongst the tech scene. Sorry,
- 13:22what's that? I've never heard of that before.
- 13:25So effective altruism, it's stemmed from a variety
- 13:30of different websites sort of trying to think
- 13:33rationally about things, but thinking rationally
- 13:36in a very sort of... rudimentary sense of that.
- 13:41But the idea was that you could sort of calculate
- 13:45the best ways to act in the world to provide
- 13:49the most benefits for the most people. Very utilitarian
- 13:54in its sort of view, but also taking into account
- 13:57these sort of, for instance, very long perspectives.
- 14:01So like one of the famous sort of claims being
- 14:03made is that, well, If AGI, for instance, or
- 14:08ASI can resurrect all of humans in the future,
- 14:13we have to take into account the interests and
- 14:17the values of that sort of group of people in
- 14:19the future. And how does that weigh upon what
- 14:22sorts of decisions we should be making today?
- 14:25So there's this real sort of emphasis on calculating
- 14:29all these different things and thinking, what
- 14:31is the rationally best way to... uh to act in
- 14:34the world it's been really influential in the
- 14:37crypto movement so there's a variety of famous
- 14:40figures within the crypto movement to subscribe
- 14:42to this viewpoint at least sort of on a superficial
- 14:46level um perhaps as window dressing for just
- 14:50making loads of money and saying that they were
- 14:52doing good at the same time but it has been a
- 14:55sort of quite pervasive idea. And I do think
- 14:58a number of tech people have picked it up as
- 15:00a sincere belief of how to organize their worldview
- 15:03and how to justify their actions that they're
- 15:05making. So I think that sort of philosophical
- 15:09approach does have some impact in the world.
- 15:13What's that called again? What kind of altruism?
- 15:17Effective altruism. Effective altruism. I've
- 15:21never heard of it anyway. Maybe that's perhaps
- 15:23on me. Okay. I believe the premise of your new
- 15:26book silicon empire is that far from being an
- 15:29actually disruptive technology in any meaningful
- 15:31sense ai is in effect designed to consolidate
- 15:35the power of big tech can you give us like an
- 15:39example that's already perhaps manifesting that
- 15:41yeah so disruptive in the sense of does it disrupt
- 15:46the existing tech giants right so historically
- 15:49there has been You know, new sort of foundational
- 15:53technologies come along and they disrupt the
- 15:55existing giants. So personal computing is, you
- 16:00know, supporting Microsoft's monopoly within
- 16:03the 1990s and the 2000s. And then suddenly you
- 16:06get a shift to mobile computing and the form
- 16:09of smartphones and things like that. And that
- 16:12leads to a massive disruption for Microsoft.
- 16:14It leads to a massive disruption for Facebook
- 16:17because their advertising has been based upon,
- 16:19you know, ads served through a personal computer
- 16:23rather than through a mobile phone. So all of
- 16:26these businesses sort of have this moment where
- 16:28they're potentially going to collapse and there'll
- 16:31be sort of new upstarts emerging to take their
- 16:33place. Similar sort of arguments have been made
- 16:36about AI. The idea being that, again, AI is a
- 16:39new disruptive technology and that traditional
- 16:42business models, something like, for instance,
- 16:44Google and Search, which generates most of Google's
- 16:48money, that maybe AI is going to disrupt that.
- 16:51and that people will no longer use search engines
- 16:53instead they'll just go to chat gpt to find answers
- 16:56to information that they need and so therefore
- 16:58google's business will be disrupted and they'll
- 17:02collapse and some new upstart will come in like
- 17:04chat gpt or perplexity or something like that
- 17:08So that's the story that gets told a lot. And
- 17:10this is partly justification as well for saying,
- 17:13well, big tech is not a problem. We just need
- 17:16to allow technology to develop. And these companies
- 17:19will get disrupted as a sort of natural progression
- 17:22of technology. This isn't what we're seeing with
- 17:25AI, though. And the key reason why is because
- 17:28AI in its contemporary form, which is deep learning
- 17:32since 2012 and since about 2017, has been increasingly
- 17:36about what's called the transformer architecture,
- 17:39which is the sort of key technical advance behind
- 17:43chat GPT and all the generative AI that we see
- 17:46today. That stuff, though, requires a few things.
- 17:50It requires huge amounts of data, which... the
- 17:53big tech companies are well -placed to have.
- 17:55It requires vast amounts of computing power.
- 17:59So Mark Zuckerberg yesterday was saying he's
- 18:04going to spend hundreds of billions of dollars
- 18:06on data centers for AI computing. So huge amounts
- 18:12of money, which is only available to the big
- 18:13tech companies. And it also requires incredible
- 18:17amounts to be spent on the human labor behind
- 18:21it. Now, this ranges from paying data labelers
- 18:25and content moderators and paying people to provide
- 18:29feedback on AI, which is usually done very cheaply
- 18:33and spread around the world into really low wage
- 18:35countries. But it also requires, as we've seen
- 18:38in the past few weeks, huge amounts of money
- 18:40to be spent on AI engineers. So one of the big
- 18:43stories in the past few weeks in AI is that Mark
- 18:45Zuckerberg has been personally approaching people
- 18:48from OpenAI, people from Anthropic, people from
- 18:51Google DeepMind, and saying, I will give you
- 18:54a $100 million signing bonus. You know, just
- 18:58astonishing amounts of money. We're talking like
- 19:01sports superstars level of money in order to
- 19:05move them to meta, to Facebook. So all of this,
- 19:09again, requires... money that's only available
- 19:12to big tech companies. It's not even really available
- 19:15to open AI, to Anthropic, to all these sort of
- 19:19startup AI companies which have been so successful.
- 19:22They don't have that access to that much capital.
- 19:26They would love to have it, but they don't have
- 19:28hundreds of billions of dollars to be throwing
- 19:30around. They have to go and rely upon other companies
- 19:33in order to do that sort of thing for them. So
- 19:36this is why AI is dependent on big tech. It's
- 19:39not disrupting their position at all. It's consolidating
- 19:41their position of centrality within this ecosystem.
- 19:44So my book ends up talking about, well, they're
- 19:48consolidating this power. How are they then reaching
- 19:51out to expand their power as well? By the way,
- 19:57what is the AI -propelled future that these companies
- 20:00are advertising? I mean, what is AI going to
- 20:03help us do? Because it's hard to find that really
- 20:06clearly articulated anywhere. Yeah, it partly
- 20:10depends on who you end up talking to. So if you
- 20:13talk to a company like Facebook and based on
- 20:18social media, based on sort of personal connections,
- 20:22the answer for them is that. AI will provide
- 20:26people with companionship. Zuckerberg has said
- 20:29this, that there's a loneliness epidemic, which
- 20:32is true, partly fostered by social media, and
- 20:36that AI companions will be the answer to this
- 20:39loneliness epidemic. So it fits in with his business
- 20:42model. To investors, he'll also say, We'll provide
- 20:46better advertising tools and we'll provide more
- 20:48personalized advertising for people. And so therefore,
- 20:51investors are saying, yeah, Facebook's going
- 20:53to make more money. So it's great for us. So
- 20:56that's the sort of vision that they have. If
- 20:59you talk to somebody like Sam Altman from OpenAI,
- 21:02who is... You know, regardless of whether or
- 21:07not he believes it, the very function of seeking
- 21:11out venture capital requires that you hype up
- 21:13your business as much as possible. So for him,
- 21:16AI is all about the sort of utopian futures where
- 21:19we have massive abundance and we're simply distributing
- 21:23out this absolute abundance to everybody. It's
- 21:26the end of scarcity. The only questions then
- 21:29are questions of distribution and not questions
- 21:32of production or anything like that. So it is
- 21:36a completely fantastical vision, and it brings
- 21:39along a lot of people. And by all accounts, Sam
- 21:42Altman is a very charismatic and convincing person
- 21:44to investors, and therefore he can raise tens
- 21:47of billions of dollars quite easily. So the story
- 21:51depends on sort of the economic position of a
- 21:53company. If you're social media, it's one thing.
- 21:55If you're seeking after venture capital, it's
- 21:57another thing. If you're organizing the world's
- 21:59knowledge like Google, it's a completely different
- 22:01sort of thing. But again, the answer I think
- 22:04comes down a lot to what is the economic rationale?
- 22:07The ideology sort of springs from that rather
- 22:10than ideology determining the behaviors. Seems
- 22:15that the word charisma has lost all meaning because
- 22:18what I... watch sam altman i definitely do not
- 22:22see a charismatic man but to each to each their
- 22:24own by the way you mentioned that zuckerberg
- 22:26said that you know we're we're all gonna have
- 22:29five virtual ai friends and to me that just i
- 22:33mean my translation to that is that these guys
- 22:35are just trying to obliterate any sense of community
- 22:38probably because they never had one but uh so
- 22:41this is not something that should be said out
- 22:43loud and yet they are saying this stuff out loud
- 22:46and it's always something more horrifying than
- 22:50the last thing that they said. I think it really
- 22:53speaks to the sort of insularity of their position.
- 22:58The fact that they say this stuff and they think,
- 23:00oh, this will be great. And then everybody else
- 23:02sort of recoils in horror, like, no, that's not
- 23:04okay. Yeah, it shows a lot. It reveals a lot
- 23:09about them, I think. So I believe it's a well
- 23:12-established fact that the productivity of...
- 23:15Workers globally has increased exponentially
- 23:18over the last 50 years, and yet the wages have
- 23:20remained stagnant while the costs are obviously
- 23:23rising. Do you expect that AI will further deepen
- 23:28this divide? Most likely, yes. I would say productivity
- 23:32hasn't actually increased that much. And I think
- 23:35one of the core economic problems for the global
- 23:38economy... is precisely that, this sort of surge
- 23:42of productivity growth that we saw in the frontier
- 23:44countries from 1920s till about the 1970s, that
- 23:49productivity growth has been dwindling since
- 23:52then. So we still see productivity growth, but
- 23:55not anywhere near the extent that we saw for
- 23:58this brief period in the 20th century. That has
- 24:03major impacts because as productivity growth
- 24:05slows, It means the potential for an economic
- 24:10pie that grows for everyone increasingly becomes
- 24:13difficult. And you end up with a sort of economic
- 24:16system which becomes increasingly more zero sum.
- 24:19And so this is partly why I think geopolitical
- 24:25issues are on the rise recently, is because of
- 24:28a sort of general... either unconscious recognition,
- 24:32you know, you sort of recognize the symptoms
- 24:34of this increasing stagnation or an explicit
- 24:37recognition that this is just the future. But
- 24:40countries are increasingly focused on more economic
- 24:43nationalism rather than the sort of economic
- 24:46globalization, which we were told for 40, 50
- 24:49years was to the benefit of everybody. Increasingly,
- 24:52it is a much more economically nationalist world.
- 24:55And crucially, this isn't just the fault of Donald
- 24:58Trump. Which I think sometimes it gets chalked
- 25:00up to because Biden continued it. You know, it
- 25:03was a bipartisan American policy to continue
- 25:07export controls, to put more barriers on trade
- 25:10around the world. And this is just, I think,
- 25:13the new normal sort of post neoliberal period
- 25:17that we're entering into because of this sort
- 25:20of stagnation. Now, AI enters into the situation
- 25:23and. Again, the promise from these companies
- 25:27is that AI is going to massively increase productivity.
- 25:30And as a result, we'll have this massive abundance
- 25:33of goods. And therefore, everybody will be able
- 25:35to get whatever they've ever wanted, you know,
- 25:37perfect utopia. The reality is that productivity
- 25:41increases are incredibly difficult, even with
- 25:44massively transformative technologies, things
- 25:46like electricity, things like the steam engine.
- 25:49It takes decades. for these things to have their
- 25:53productivity, the sort of capability that they
- 25:57have to increase productivity. It takes decades
- 26:00to fulfill that. And simply because the general
- 26:05technology itself is one thing, but to actually
- 26:08adopt it into an actually existing business is
- 26:11a completely different thing. And one of the
- 26:13most famous stories from economic history is
- 26:15that factories, for instance, manufacturing productivity.
- 26:20It took decades for factories to reorganize around
- 26:23the steam engine because they were simply sort
- 26:27of plopped in as a new power source to replace
- 26:29the old power sources. But that didn't maximize
- 26:32the productivity enhancements that could be done.
- 26:35What had to be done was you had to reorganize
- 26:37the entire production workflow. You had to reorganize
- 26:41the actual physical spaces of these factories,
- 26:43which meant that The productivity enhancements
- 26:46didn't come from old factories, which had already
- 26:48been built. They came from new factories that
- 26:50were completely redesigned around what this new
- 26:53power source enabled. And all of this meant that
- 26:56there was a complete, you know, it didn't happen
- 26:59overnight. It took years and years and decades
- 27:01eventually for all of this stuff to happen. Same
- 27:04thing is going to happen with AI. You can see
- 27:07it right now. You know, people are still wondering,
- 27:09what is AI good for? How do we actually use it?
- 27:12This is... What happens with every massively
- 27:16transformative technology? Its real productive
- 27:19uses aren't immediately apparent and they take
- 27:21time for this stuff to be figured out and time
- 27:23for businesses and organizations and social institutions
- 27:27and laws and all of this stuff to be reconfigured
- 27:30in order to take advantage of these things. So,
- 27:33yeah. productivity may increase, but it's not
- 27:35going to be a sudden increase. It'll be something
- 27:37that takes years and decades to unfold. But what
- 27:41do you think that's going to do to the labor
- 27:42market and to jobs? Because some of these AICOs
- 27:47themselves... have said recently, hey, in two
- 27:50years, I think 30 % of the jobs are just going
- 27:53to be gone. And I was just watching an interview
- 27:55with Jeffrey Hinton, one of the godfathers of
- 27:58AI, and he said, yeah, you better become a plumber
- 28:00now because you're probably going to be unemployed
- 28:02in 18 months or something. So these are pretty
- 28:05startling predictions. I think there will be
- 28:10significant changes to the labor market. I think
- 28:13a number of jobs will massively change. But again,
- 28:16it's not going to happen that quickly unless
- 28:19there's some major technical advance that nobody
- 28:22really foresees at the present moment. I think
- 28:25specific areas of the labor market will be pretty
- 28:29significantly impacted. I mean, they keep mentioning
- 28:31like entry -level white -collar jobs. Yeah, this
- 28:36is a curious one because there is ways in which
- 28:40AI can sort of take some of this work and do
- 28:43some of this work. It requires more checking
- 28:47by senior people than it does to, you know, to
- 28:52oversee an entry level person. And it also completely
- 28:56disrupts this sort of progression that's built
- 28:59up in organizations that you come in in a junior
- 29:02role. You learn not just that particular, you
- 29:05know, the tasks involved in that job, but you
- 29:07learn how the entire organization works. And
- 29:10so you still need that sort of. that sort of
- 29:14pathway for people to come in. And it may not,
- 29:18that sort of entry -level position may not look
- 29:19the same in the future, but there still has to
- 29:22be a spot for that entry -level position because
- 29:24you need to introduce people to the organization.
- 29:26You need to have them have an understanding of
- 29:29the entire scope of the organization eventually
- 29:32as they move into a senior role. So organizations
- 29:36will have to work this out. And again, this is
- 29:38partly why these things take time to really get
- 29:40put into place. Because it can't just simply
- 29:44replace entry -level workers because in five
- 29:46years' time, you'll have no people to promote
- 29:48to senior roles. Exactly, yeah. It is, yeah,
- 29:52it's something which will require change. I don't
- 29:57see it leading to mass automation. I think in
- 29:59certain areas, it will lead to significant automation.
- 30:02Translation is a major one. Transcription is
- 30:05another one. Generic sort of content production
- 30:09of graphic design and things like that, I think
- 30:12is also. increasingly under a lot of threat from
- 30:15this sort of stuff. But yeah, as a sort of like,
- 30:20will it lead to mass unemployment? Will it lead
- 30:22to 30 % unemployment? No, no. We always create
- 30:26new jobs as well, which is another thing to think
- 30:28about. Yeah, some jobs will be taken away, but
- 30:31there will be new jobs created. We really need
- 30:34to be thinking about how do we support people
- 30:36through this. And this doesn't just mean job
- 30:38training, which is what every politician will
- 30:40tell you as like everybody can agree on that.
- 30:42It means proper welfare systems designed to support
- 30:45the fact that people are being tossed out of
- 30:48jobs at a high rate and they need time to be
- 30:51able to find new jobs and things like that. Yeah.
- 30:55So I just was thinking when you said like. politicians
- 30:58saying like job training and stuff, but there
- 31:00was some Congress hearing about AI. I don't know
- 31:02exactly what it was in the US. I've seen a video
- 31:05of it. And the Congresswoman that was talking
- 31:08about it kept referring to AI as A1. So she wasn't
- 31:13really even know what's happening in the room.
- 31:18So yeah, good luck there. But yeah, by the way,
- 31:22I talked to a lot of people in creative fields
- 31:25and they keep saying, The thing that you mentioned
- 31:28as well, that only the top level people, the
- 31:31most talented ones, are going to be able to keep
- 31:35their jobs. But if that's the case, how do you
- 31:37ever become a graphic designer in the first place
- 31:40or a photographer or whatever, you know, a top
- 31:42level one, if you're not able to go through any
- 31:46sort of like professional experience as one?
- 31:48I don't get it. Yeah, I mean, I don't have an
- 31:53easy answer to that either. I think... One thing
- 31:56to note is that people do a lot of this stuff
- 31:57as well just for hobbies, particularly something
- 32:00like photography. It's a hobbyist thing as well.
- 32:04So there is still scope for people to do this
- 32:06in their free time and to enjoy it just as a
- 32:08personal venture and also use AI tools to be
- 32:13able to sort of do more than they would be able
- 32:15to do by themselves. That doesn't answer the
- 32:18question of jobs. It doesn't answer the question
- 32:20of employment and income and things like that.
- 32:24people will continue to do the stuff as a hobby
- 32:26as well. I mean, if AI actually replaces 30 %
- 32:31of workers or 40 % or whatever it's going to
- 32:33be, how will these companies make any money if
- 32:35nobody has any? That's a bit of a pickle, isn't
- 32:38it? Yeah, yeah. I mean, you don't believe that's
- 32:41going to happen, but they keep coming out with
- 32:44these sort of dramatic predictions. I think it's
- 32:48why a lot of them end up pushing for something
- 32:49like a universal basic income as a response.
- 32:52So universal basic income, give everybody a certain
- 32:56amount of money every single month, no questions
- 32:58asked. And this then provides the sort of lubricant
- 33:03for the economy. People go out and they consume.
- 33:05They have enough money to survive. They keep
- 33:08the economy ticking over. It's a simple solution,
- 33:12at least sort of on a superficial level, but
- 33:15I think it's... It underestimates, I think, a
- 33:19lot of the power issues involved. And I think
- 33:21it underestimates sort of the different elements
- 33:25that are needed for, to keep people surviving,
- 33:28basically. Can you talk more about the, you said
- 33:32that they underestimate the power issues underneath.
- 33:35Can you talk more about that? Yeah. So the basic
- 33:38idea, if you believe that most of the labor force
- 33:42is going to be automated away. So let's say 30
- 33:46% to, you know, some predictions are up to like
- 33:48100 % eventually. What does this effectively
- 33:52mean? You've got a load of people who are living
- 33:55off a UBI, which is provided by a government.
- 33:58And you've got a handful of people who control
- 34:02these AI companies and are gaining all the resources
- 34:05and power and the wealth. And the redistribution
- 34:09of a UBI comes from those people in power. But
- 34:14those people in power ultimately don't need the
- 34:17rest of the world, and they certainly don't need
- 34:18six or seven or eight billion of us basically
- 34:22surviving off of their charity. So that's where
- 34:26the power issue sort of comes in. If you really
- 34:28believe these sort of mass unemployment hypotheses,
- 34:34it does become an issue of loads of people who
- 34:37are surplus to the economy surviving off of the
- 34:41charity of a handful of people. And that's not
- 34:44a sustainable situation. You might have, if you're
- 34:48lucky, some benevolent trillionaire who is deciding
- 34:53to do this. And then they pass away and it turns
- 34:56out their child is much worse and decides that,
- 34:58no, actually, I don't care about these people.
- 35:01It's not sustainable in the long term. So there's
- 35:04these sorts of power issues, even at a much sort
- 35:07of less radical level. So UBI, it's like pensions,
- 35:13for instance. So every single year in workplaces
- 35:16or at a national level, there's political debates
- 35:20about how much do we increase the pensions by
- 35:22at a nominal level because inflation has gone
- 35:26up. And if you don't change those pension levels,
- 35:28it means the real value of the pensions has gone
- 35:31down. So you have to increase it in line with
- 35:33inflation every year, at least, otherwise the
- 35:36value is going away. Same thing holds for UBI.
- 35:39You can imagine a situation where we get a UBI
- 35:41implemented. It's, I don't know, here in the
- 35:45UK, let's say 2 ,000 pounds a month or something
- 35:49like that. Great, wonderful for this year, but
- 35:52inflation will quickly eat that away. I mean,
- 35:54good luck with that in London. Yeah, very much
- 35:59so. But it means that you have to constantly
- 36:02fight for it every single year. And again, who
- 36:05has power there? Who is able to exert the force
- 36:08on, you know, what level is that UBI set year
- 36:12after year after year? How do you maintain the
- 36:14value of it? So this is where I think these issues
- 36:17of power really get, you know, they become important
- 36:21to think about. You can't just say UBI is the
- 36:23answer and that's it. There's power involved.
- 36:26Yeah, exactly. I mean, if that happens and I'm
- 36:30getting like 1 ,000 euros per month, but I know
- 36:34that I'm getting this from some... fucking trillion
- 36:36i'm sorry it's for some trip from some trillionaire
- 36:39and that i'm living off of his charity i'm not
- 36:42going to be very happy in fact i'm my blood is
- 36:44already boiling just talking about it right now
- 36:46so breathe your world well i mean The sort of
- 36:51hypothetical scenarios that have been set out
- 36:53as well is that, well, if you've got advanced
- 36:55general, advanced superintelligence, you know,
- 36:59you've also got control over massively advanced
- 37:02security systems, which means that the average,
- 37:04you know, the public, the average person stand
- 37:07no chance against overturning that sort of power.
- 37:10You know, they'll have drones surrounding their
- 37:12underground lair. Oh, fantastic. It's completely,
- 37:16you know, wild. But if you buy into the scenario
- 37:19of an artificial superintelligence, superintelligence,
- 37:21this sort of stuff does become seemingly more
- 37:24possible. In this sort of race that's happening
- 37:29right now, supposedly between China and the US,
- 37:32it's a useful excuse to not have any sort of
- 37:35controls and brakes on any of this, right? Because
- 37:39if we say, oh, let's implement some controls
- 37:42on the development of generative AI, these guys
- 37:44can immediately say, oh, what about China? We
- 37:46can't lose to China and vice versa, right? Yeah,
- 37:52exactly. And this is explicitly what the Trump
- 37:55administration has been saying. You know, there
- 37:58was an international summit in Paris a month
- 38:01or two ago, and the US didn't sign up to the
- 38:05international summit because they said it was
- 38:08going to slow down AI innovation. You know, it
- 38:11was an impediment within this AI race. As much
- 38:16as I do sort of think that there is something
- 38:18like an AI race going on, even sort of calling
- 38:23it a race risks bringing it into existence along
- 38:27with all of these dynamics of racing towards
- 38:29it. Now, I think China is somewhat interesting
- 38:31because China doesn't seem to be as much invested
- 38:38in the race. sort of idea, as the U .S. does,
- 38:43partly out of necessity. You know, they can't
- 38:47get the latest NVIDIA chips. They can't sort
- 38:49of meet the same sort of scale that the U .S.
- 38:51can do. So they can't compete at that sort of
- 38:53frontier level. Yet, they developed this sort
- 38:56of really impressive deep -seek model. Nevertheless,
- 38:59even though they can't have access to these NVIDIA
- 39:03chips and stuff. They did. They did. And this
- 39:06was sort of one of the... the shocks was that
- 39:09they did it so cheaply. The sort of headline
- 39:13figure was something like $5 million that they
- 39:15managed to produce this model. But it's worth
- 39:19noting that $5 million was the cost of one training
- 39:22run. But usually there's sort of multiple training
- 39:25runs. It doesn't account for the cost of the
- 39:27hardware, which nobody explicitly knows what
- 39:30they trained it on. But the estimates are anywhere
- 39:32from like 10 ,000 to 100 ,000 GPUs, which we're
- 39:36talking hundreds of millions of dollars for that
- 39:38sort of thing. Plus, you've got to pay for the
- 39:40AI people actually building it. And then this
- 39:43$5 million figure was for the... what's called
- 39:46a base model. It wasn't for the reasoning model,
- 39:49which gained all this attention as being really,
- 39:51really sophisticated. So again, it was cheap.
- 39:55We know that. And it was very, very good, better
- 39:59than a lot of people thought that China could
- 40:00do, but it wasn't that cheap. And they basically
- 40:05relied upon a lot of NVIDIA GPUs that they sort
- 40:09of got before all these export controls were
- 40:12put in place. Sorry, but I rudely interrupted
- 40:14you when you were in the middle of explaining
- 40:18how China is not as invested as the US. Please
- 40:21go on. Yeah, so it's hard to find all that many
- 40:28examples of sort of the AI race discourse in
- 40:32China. They're also not nearly as concerned about
- 40:35things like AGI, ASI. The rhetoric isn't about
- 40:41that sort of thing. Partly it is a cultural difference.
- 40:45I think Silicon Valley is very invested in this
- 40:48idea. And the number of sort of Chinese investors
- 40:52who are invested in the same idea just aren't
- 40:55as many. There are some, and DeepSeek is sort
- 40:58of part of that, but there's not nearly as many.
- 41:01The other side is that I think China is much
- 41:04more interested in... not in innovating at the
- 41:09very edges of AI, which is an extremely expensive
- 41:12and difficult thing to do. They're more interested
- 41:15in how do we actually take this AI and apply
- 41:17it to all these different industries. This is
- 41:20where I think China's doing really well and where
- 41:24they're explicitly turning their focus at not
- 41:26just the sort of national level government, but
- 41:29also at provincial levels and municipal levels
- 41:32as well. You see loads of projects to say, We
- 41:36want to support businesses adopting AI, experimenting
- 41:38with AI, learning how to adapt it. So that sort
- 41:42of diffusion process, which, again, normally
- 41:45takes years and decades to do, that they can
- 41:48sort of speed run through that and try and integrate
- 41:51AI into their economy as quickly as possible.
- 41:53So I think they are sort of running a race, but
- 41:56it's a very different race than what the US is
- 41:58going for. It's a race where they're running
- 42:00off in different directions effectively. Okay.
- 42:03So it's not like the Cold War and the space race
- 42:05and all that stuff. It's a bit different. I mean,
- 42:08on some sort of level, there's concerns about
- 42:11geopolitical power. There's concerns about military
- 42:13power and economic power. But the pathway to
- 42:16get there is quite different for both of these
- 42:18countries. By the way, you said it yourself that
- 42:22a lot of these AI companies are building loads
- 42:26of these data centers, you know, like it's nobody's
- 42:28business. And these have a massive environmental
- 42:31impact. Are these companies addressing any of
- 42:36this? So Elon Musk is probably the worst of this
- 42:41because he is, I mean, it's the worst of many
- 42:45things, but he's the worst of this as well. I
- 42:47was thinking the same thing. Yeah. Not the best
- 42:51fellow out there. Yeah, yeah. So in order for
- 42:56his company, XAI, to catch up to OpenAI and Google
- 43:01and Anthropic, basically rapidly rolled out a
- 43:04massive, massive data center. At the time, it
- 43:06was the biggest data center in the world. Rolled
- 43:09out this massive data center. But the issue was,
- 43:11of course, how do you get power that quickly?
- 43:15Because power takes time. These data centers
- 43:18can't rely on solar power because you need to
- 43:20be able to have it 24 -7. Oh, I didn't know that.
- 43:24That's interesting. Yeah, you can't have a training
- 43:26run that's interrupted constantly every night.
- 43:29So you need that sort of continuous power. You
- 43:31need massive amounts of power. So let me give
- 43:35an example. So Facebook, Zuckerberg yesterday
- 43:37said they're planning a five gigawatt power data
- 43:40center. The average nuclear power plant produces
- 43:43about one gigawatt. So we're talking five nuclear
- 43:46power plants worth of energy going towards one
- 43:49data center. It's insane. So you've got this.
- 43:53And Musk, what he effectively did was just rolled
- 43:56this thing out as quickly as possible. And in
- 43:57order to get sufficient energy, just rolled out
- 44:00a bunch of extremely polluting energy sources.
- 44:05It seems like probably broke a number of laws
- 44:08in the process. I don't know what's going to
- 44:10come of that. Probably nothing because it's Elon
- 44:13Musk. But yeah, so he just doesn't care at all
- 44:17about the environmental impact. He's rolling
- 44:19out AI models with absolutely zero apparent concerns
- 44:24about AI safety. So every other... organization
- 44:28will do some like they'll do some red teaming
- 44:31uh they'll do some you know trying to prevent
- 44:35these models from doing you know horrible things
- 44:37uh they'll at least do some efforts towards that
- 44:40whereas xai seems to not care at all which is
- 44:44how you end up with the mecca hitler situation
- 44:46and things like that um you know grok convinced
- 44:50that it's mecca hitler and turns massively anti
- 44:52-semite And curiously, it has also been shown
- 44:56to when you ask Grok about a controversial political
- 44:59topic, the first thing it will do is go and see
- 45:01what Elon Musk has said on Twitter about the
- 45:03topic. So it's using Elon Musk as a source of
- 45:06truth for all of these things. But this is what
- 45:09happens when you roll these things out incredibly
- 45:11quickly. And I think Musk is the purest example
- 45:15of that. Other companies are rolling out really,
- 45:18really quickly to the point where they've had
- 45:20to break their net zero targets. They said they
- 45:23were going to have net zero, I think, usually
- 45:24by 2030. And they basically said, we can't do
- 45:27that anymore. On the good side, they are largely
- 45:32looking at renewable energy sources in order
- 45:35to get their energy, or if not renewable. non
- 45:41-carbon intensive stuff, things like nuclear
- 45:44and stuff like that. So they are trying to roll
- 45:47out energy sources, which are much cleaner than
- 45:49what Elon Musk has done. And in China, there's
- 45:53a mandate that they have to be relying upon relatively
- 45:56green sources of energy, that you can't just
- 45:59rely upon coal or something like that. So on
- 46:04the plus side, the AI boom means that there is
- 46:09a wave of investment in clean energy that just
- 46:12wasn't going to happen otherwise and in my sort
- 46:16of like my sort of like biggest hopes for the
- 46:20future is that if we have a system where the
- 46:23ai bubble collapses the data centers go down
- 46:26but all those renewable energy sources that we've
- 46:29built up to power them continue on uh and actually
- 46:32we end up in a much better energy circle situation
- 46:35in five years time than we we ever thought was
- 46:37possible um you know capitalism rolling out green
- 46:41energy not to combat climate change but to build
- 46:43better ai but in the end maybe it'll help with
- 46:46climate change that's my that's my hope fingers
- 46:49crossed these companies are like they're trying
- 46:52to meet their climate goals i think there is
- 46:57From Google and Microsoft in particular, there
- 46:59is a real desire to meet those sorts of goals,
- 47:02whether that's because of corporate pressure,
- 47:05investor stakeholder pressure, or just a general
- 47:08recognition that climate change is a serious
- 47:11issue that needs to be tackled. But at the same
- 47:13time, they're also compelled by capitalist competition
- 47:17to roll out data centers as quickly as possible.
- 47:21Relying on the 10 -year timeline for a new nuclear
- 47:23energy source to come on board isn't possible.
- 47:27They can't rely upon wind power and solar power
- 47:30to do all this stuff either. It can be a part
- 47:32of the answer, but not the complete answer. So
- 47:35they will have to rely upon dirty energy, and
- 47:37they recognize that. So I think they are somewhat
- 47:40tied. But again, it's that competition aspect,
- 47:43that AI race aspect, which is really driving
- 47:46this. Yeah, ironic that Elon Musk is the worst
- 47:51when it comes to these sort of AI guardrails,
- 47:53when he was one of those 100 prominent people
- 47:56signing the letter to... stop the development
- 48:00of AI and he was like you know parading with
- 48:02this petition all over the place and but it's
- 48:05not surprising at all because he's just an insufferable
- 48:08I think that was more a matter of to give him
- 48:10six months to catch up yeah yeah of course yeah
- 48:12obviously you just said something that piqued
- 48:15my interest you said that you're hoping that
- 48:17the AI bubble will burst do you think that could
- 48:22potentially happen Is that a real possibility?
- 48:25As we say back home in Eastern Europe, from your
- 48:28mouth to God's ears. Let me distinguish because
- 48:35I think AI as we have it today, generative AI,
- 48:38transformer architecture, I think it is transformative.
- 48:41I think it will have massive economic impacts.
- 48:44It will transform many elements of society and
- 48:47the economy. But again, that will take decades.
- 48:49And investors don't like to wait decades for
- 48:52their... investments to make a return. They're
- 48:55more interested in quarterly profits. They're
- 48:57more interested in how do I hop on the biggest
- 49:01thing right now. So I think there will be somewhat
- 49:07of an investor reckoning at times. And I think
- 49:10you can see that if you read the sort of quarterly
- 49:13earnings calls from these companies, the questions
- 49:16are always about from the investors, when do
- 49:20we get our money back? What is the bottom line
- 49:23here? And there's a lot of defensive justification
- 49:26from the executives to say that this will pay
- 49:29off. This will pay off. It might not. It might.
- 49:34I'm not going to put that out of possibility.
- 49:35It might in the next five years actually lead
- 49:37to the hundreds of billions of dollars that are
- 49:40being spent. And Goldman Sachs said a trillion
- 49:44dollars is going to be spent. Maybe. It will
- 49:48make that back. I'm not going to put that out
- 49:50of the realm of possibility. But it's also somewhat
- 49:54unlikely, in which case investors may decide
- 49:57to turn against these companies and pull back
- 49:59some of that spending on these data centers and
- 50:03AI training runs and AI research and things like
- 50:06that. So in that case, there would be a sort
- 50:09of what's called an AI winter. which throughout
- 50:12the period of research into AI, there's been
- 50:15moments where everybody gets really hyped up.
- 50:17This new technology comes along. People are like,
- 50:19this will solve all these economic issues. And
- 50:22then it doesn't. And then the funding retreats
- 50:24and you lead to an AI winter where AI research
- 50:27sort of dwindles in academia for a while. That
- 50:30could happen again. But I don't think it's going
- 50:34to be a sort of permanent thing. I think the
- 50:36nature of AI as a general... So speaking of AI
- 50:42from early neural networks onwards, it continues
- 50:46to grow and develop. And eventually some sort
- 50:48of new technique will be created. Some new possibility
- 50:52will come about. And even if there's an AI winter,
- 50:56people will be like, okay, this is the new way.
- 50:58And you'll get tens, hundreds of billions of
- 51:00dollars pouring back into the field. So yeah,
- 51:03short term, there could be an AI winter. But
- 51:05long term, I think AI is still economically really
- 51:08impactful. Yeah. Bad news. I was kind of hoping
- 51:13that it would be like the smartphone, you know,
- 51:15that there was this huge boom, but like the last
- 51:18three iPhones or whatever, basically the same.
- 51:21The camera is a little bit better, but it's not
- 51:23a completely new transformative machine anymore.
- 51:26And nobody's expecting it to be anymore. So,
- 51:28I don't know. I guess we'll see. Yeah. By the
- 51:34way, I also wanted to ask the following. Every
- 51:38single person that I talk to kind of hates AI
- 51:42and wants this development to stop. And yet we're
- 51:45getting a new chat GPT update every couple of
- 51:48months, which in turn makes us feel even more
- 51:50powerless because we don't want this to happen,
- 51:52you know, to be completely at the mercy of these
- 51:55companies. What is to be done? Yeah, it's difficult.
- 52:01There's no real way to stop this constant pushing
- 52:05out of new products. You can not use it. You
- 52:12can feel free as an individual to not use it.
- 52:15But it's far too embedded in the economy already
- 52:18for that to make much of a difference. If you're
- 52:22not using it, your co -workers and friends and
- 52:24family are probably using it. So I don't think
- 52:32that sort of individual action is going to have
- 52:34much impact. on what these companies do. I think
- 52:40some of the best that we can hope for is strict
- 52:44regulations around the environmental impacts
- 52:47of these things. So mandate that it has to be
- 52:52clean energy that they're using, for instance.
- 52:54Don't do like what Elon Musk did and just fire
- 52:57up a bunch of gas generators to support your
- 52:59hobby. We need laws around, for instance, copyright
- 53:06that are protecting artists and giving them some
- 53:12sort of fair remuneration for these sorts of
- 53:15uses being made of their property. We also need
- 53:21rules around the low -wage workers who are involved
- 53:24in this stuff. So people typically in a place
- 53:27like Kenya who are doing a lot of the sort of
- 53:32background work to build these things by providing,
- 53:36for instance, judgments on what is a good AI
- 53:39response and what is a bad AI response, often
- 53:42getting paid very poorly for it, or who are having
- 53:45to do sort of content moderation for these things
- 53:48to make sure that they're not producing MechaHitler
- 53:50and all this nonsense. So those sorts of things,
- 53:54I think, are what we can sort of push for. But
- 53:58again, I don't think that's sort of, I'm not
- 54:00using... AI is sufficient and I don't think it's
- 54:04going to have much impact on what these companies
- 54:06are doing. That's like recycling to fight climate
- 54:09change, I suppose. Yeah, very much so. Coming
- 54:13back to the original villain of this story, Peter
- 54:16Thiel, what are some of the military applications
- 54:18of this stuff? I actually don't know what Palantir
- 54:22is doing because it always gets me depressed
- 54:24when I start watching these videos, but what
- 54:26are they doing? I do know that they signed some
- 54:29sort of massive contract with the Pentagon or
- 54:31something. Yeah. And a bunch of the AI companies
- 54:35just signed a Department of Defense contract
- 54:37yesterday for $800 million, I think, collectively.
- 54:40Yeah. Wonderful. So in my book, I recount this
- 54:45quite curious change. Because when 2024 started,
- 54:51every major AI company explicitly said, you cannot
- 54:56use our AI for military or harmful purposes.
- 54:59So it was written into their rules, their foundational
- 55:02principles that you couldn't use their AI for
- 55:04these sorts of purposes. Over the course of the
- 55:08next 12 months, every single one of those companies
- 55:10changed those rules around military use. And
- 55:14all of them started making contracts with the
- 55:17military. Now, I think for the startups, groups
- 55:20like OpenAI and Anthropic, The idea here is that
- 55:25you need money, and the military is a great source
- 55:28of money that is not going to ask a lot of questions
- 55:33about, is this profitable? They'll just ask whether
- 55:36or not it helps us in our killing people projects.
- 55:42As for what is actually being used, the actual
- 55:44use cases, I think, are somewhat obscure because
- 55:48it is top secret stuff. But we know, for instance,
- 55:53that they're used to analyze satellite imagery.
- 55:57So instead of having humans pour through this
- 55:59massive amount of data, you use AI to pour through
- 56:02all this imagery and try and figure out what
- 56:07is a target, what's not. That's been used already
- 56:10by Israel and Gaza and their genocide against
- 56:12Gazan people. We also know that they're using
- 56:18this AI stuff increasingly in... in drone technology,
- 56:23but also there's work on fighter jets that don't
- 56:29have any pilot inside of them. So I think Anduril
- 56:33is working on that sort of stuff and a couple
- 56:36of other companies. So increasingly, you know,
- 56:39military armaments of the future are not involving
- 56:44any humans, except at some sort of decision -making
- 56:49level, hopefully. But more and more of that decision
- 56:52-making will be offloaded to AI. And then I've
- 56:55seen as well, there's the intelligence community,
- 56:57for instance, trying to find like financial connections
- 57:02amongst terror groups and things like that. Using
- 57:06generative AI as a way to try and find subtle
- 57:09patterns that they wouldn't be able to do otherwise.
- 57:14So yeah, that's sort of the use is being made
- 57:17of it. And it's a bit terrifying. to be honest.
- 57:22Yeah, I was just about to ask. These are all
- 57:23great tools also for a totalitarian regime. Coupled
- 57:29with AI, it really does seem like nightmare fuel.
- 57:31Does it keep you awake at night sometimes? I
- 57:36mean, I do worry about the world that my kids
- 57:37are coming into. Politically, economically, socially.
- 57:45I mean, for me, one of the biggest worries. The
- 57:48recent Iran -Israel conflict was, I think, really
- 57:51illuminating for me because you've got this long
- 57:55range war going on, Iran shooting long range
- 57:58ballistic missiles, Israel firing back with its
- 58:01anti -missile systems. And ultimately what that
- 58:06battle was going to come down to was who runs
- 58:08out of weapons first, because there's only a
- 58:11certain amount of those missiles and they're
- 58:12costly and they take time to produce and things
- 58:14like that. So the battle was basically who has
- 58:17the most military resources and how long can
- 58:19that last? My real concern is that since World
- 58:23War II, Europe has not been all that invested
- 58:26in building up their militaries. Beyond basic
- 58:29sort of security, there's not been a huge reinvestment,
- 58:32particularly in Germany for obvious reasons.
- 58:36That's all changing now. We have every single
- 58:38European country deciding we are going to spend
- 58:41a lot more of our GDP on the military. So that
- 58:44situation that we saw in Israel and Iran, that
- 58:46maybe the battle can only last a couple of weeks.
- 58:50That's going to be changing as people build up
- 58:52these military resources. And again, for the
- 58:55military companies, battles are profitable. They
- 58:58need more missiles. They need more technology.
- 59:01They're immensely profitable. And I think there's
- 59:03a real powerful interest group growing in these
- 59:07sorts of hot conflicts. So it's really worrying,
- 59:12the sort of conditions that are being laid down
- 59:14right now. We can't do much on an individual
- 59:16level, but what about on a collective level?
- 59:18Yeah, on a collective level, I think there's
- 59:21the things I mentioned. So environmental laws,
- 59:23copyright laws, workers' rights. There's also
- 59:27at an individual level, I think in workplaces,
- 59:30you can collectively have some impact on. how,
- 59:35when, and what sort of AI is being implemented
- 59:38into your workplace. That's not going to solve
- 59:41these massive social problems, but it will have
- 59:43impacts in individual workplaces that I think
- 59:45could be very beneficial to workers. That sort
- 59:49of thing, I think, is quite important. And maybe
- 59:53as the sort of negative impacts of AI become
- 59:56more obvious, you might again see the sort of
- 1:00:00reaction against social media that we're seeing
- 1:00:03right now. So it's become increasingly obvious
- 1:00:07that social media has had a load of negative
- 1:00:09impacts on society, on individuals, on mental
- 1:00:12health, on physical health. And there's a real
- 1:00:14movement to sort of push people away from social
- 1:00:16media. We might see a similar sort of thing happen
- 1:00:19with AI as its impacts become more obvious to
- 1:00:22the public. But I don't think the conditions
- 1:00:26are there for that at the moment right now. Yeah,
- 1:00:29and even so, despite the fact that there's a
- 1:00:31push against using social media, people are still
- 1:00:33using social media all over the place. Nick,
- 1:00:38thank you so much for this conversation. Where
- 1:00:39and when can people get your book? I think it's
- 1:00:42available for pre -order right now. We're going
- 1:00:44to include the link. I think so as well, yeah.
- 1:00:48So Silicon Empire is the fight for the future
- 1:00:50of AI. It should be out in October of this year.
- 1:00:54It should be available via... all the usual places
- 1:00:57online, and hopefully in bookstores as well.
- 1:00:59All right. Thanks again. Thank you so much for
- 1:01:03listening. Please subscribe to the podcast on
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