Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Imminent Squeeze?🚨Crypto Market Update

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Imminent Squeeze?🚨Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: An imminent squeeze could be underway. And the real question is,
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: how do the midterms play into it? We're going to
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: dive into all of that stuff today. Before we do that,
• 0:08
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• 0:10
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• 0:26
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• 0:29
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• 0:34
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• 0:35
  Speaker 2: Reward to get started.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: And you're going to have to start tax planning soon.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: And IRAs are one of the diversification things that you
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: should be doing to set yourself up for success. Let's
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: get into it. Let's go to the first clip here.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: And this one gets into where we are in this
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: current cycle, because many people think this is the final
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: innings of this correction.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
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  Speaker 3: Would you call it a sell-off, I guess, some rotation
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: or weakness in the overall averages?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: You think that's over and we're going to start having
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: better market performance at this point?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think the average stock is done. I mean,
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: it's been a really nasty correction. It started in June, right?
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is sort of the rotation from early
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: to mid-cycle. You had the momentum unwind. You've had this
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: now concern around the sustainability of the AI capbacks. You
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: have a Couple wars going on. You have the midterm
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: election anxiety. So, yeah, there's a lot that's been digested
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: by the markets. If you look at the breadth of
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: the market, it's been terrible. So I think we're in
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  Speaker 3: the final innings of this, but we still got to
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  Speaker 3: get to the next probably two to three weeks. And
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  Speaker 3: I think we can still finish the year pretty strongly
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  Speaker 3: and definitely into next year.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: All right.
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  Speaker 1: So two to three weeks. He's pointing toward midterms. That's
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: where we are right now. You're recording October 20th. Basically,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: you've got about 13 days in. So the real question is,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: is how does that play into the markets? Post-midterms, do
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: we see a major move into that? If you look
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: at what Scott Besson is stating, he's saying that America.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: Is and must grow our way out of debt.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: And what he references here is economic growth, tighter government spending,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: all essential to addressing America's debt burden. A couple of
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  Speaker 1: points he hits here. Iran, he claims Iran's currency has collapsed.
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  Speaker 1: Panic is setting in and its economy could deteriorate sharply. This,
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  Speaker 1: of course, somehow is going to benefit the American economy.
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  Speaker 1: And then Besson also maintains a positive outlook on the U.S. economy,
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  Speaker 1: despite these energy price pressures that we're continuing to see.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: And that's the big critical component that is going to
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  Speaker 1: continue to push against inflation. It's going to continue to
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  Speaker 1: push into the decisions around the Fed and what that
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  Speaker 1: looks like.
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  Speaker 2: All of this still up.
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  Speaker 1: In the air, I think, until after midterms. And I'll
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  Speaker 1: explain a little bit why that's important here in a second. Remember, though,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: this was on another note. France just put out something
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: that was brand new, and this is in reference to
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  Speaker 1: an approved crypto. This actually got approved around crypto to
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: stablecoin conversions. So you're selling your Bitcoin or your ETH
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: to USDC. You're going to get charged 30% now for
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: a crypto tax. One of the countries that have started
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: to go in this direction, we're probably going to see
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: a lot more tax proposals out there around the world.
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  Speaker 2: Be watching those really quickly.
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  Speaker 1: Let's jump back to the economy here, because there are
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  Speaker 1: some things here that could indicate more pressure on the market,
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  Speaker 1: and especially to what that previous analyst was talking about is,
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  Speaker 1: are we through kind of the thick part right now?
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  Speaker 1: Let me go and take a look at this clip.
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  Speaker 2: So do we need a print before? You just said 7%.
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  Speaker 3: So what do you think? Subtract core or headline inflation? Well,
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  Speaker 3: it's basically half real, half inflation. So this is the
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  Speaker 3: whole thesis of letting the economy run hot to try
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  Speaker 3: and grow out of your debt problem.
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  Speaker 1: So you think GDP is running hot right now?
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  Speaker 2: Oh, absolutely.
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  Speaker 3: That's why rates are up so much.
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  Speaker 2: And that's why rates are up.
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  Speaker 3: And that's why stocks are OK, generally. I mean, they've
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  Speaker 3: been OK this year.
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  Speaker 2: We're up 10%, 12%.
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  Speaker 3: A lot of stocks have corrected now in the last
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  Speaker 3: two or three months because we're adjusting to a Fed
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  Speaker 3: that's now responding. We've always said, right? Stocks are fine, okay,
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  Speaker 3: with rates going up as long as growth is good
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  Speaker 3: and the Fed's not killing the cycle. And that's what
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  Speaker 3: the market is questioning. Is the Fed going to pull
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  Speaker 3: away the punch bowl too quickly here and not allow
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  Speaker 3: the economy to run? We don't know the answer. So
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  Speaker 3: I think Kevin Warsh has the right philosophy here, which
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  Speaker 3: is like, look, I can't control the oil market, right,
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  Speaker 3: as the Fed chair. I can't really control the speed
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  Speaker 3: of the economy. He knows rates are going up. He's
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  Speaker 3: allowing rates to go up, and he knows oil prices
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  Speaker 3: are up. That's your natural governor. 7%, probably 7%, 8%
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  Speaker 3: is probably too hot. So let the market do the
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  Speaker 3: tightening for him, whether it be oil and or rates.
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  Speaker 2: All right, so some things to consider there.
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  Speaker 1: That strategy, of course, could boost wages, get into a
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  Speaker 1: position of lower unemployment. But in many cases, that would
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  Speaker 1: be a little bit of a triggering moment because you
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: could get up with higher inflation. If that happens, obviously,
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  Speaker 1: we could see an economic scenario that plays out in
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  Speaker 1: the market as well. Higher inflation if we get into it.
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  Speaker 1: So it's kind of a tightrope that is being walked
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  Speaker 1: right now. And all of this is really centered around
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  Speaker 1: the midterm election. Even Iran has been, and we've talked
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  Speaker 1: about this on the show before, is they are deliberately
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  Speaker 1: prolonging any engagement or negotiation with the U.S., mainly to
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  Speaker 1: deny Trump a political victory ahead of the November midterms.
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  Speaker 2: Now, many people will.
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  Speaker 1: Say, all right, well, let's say that after that occurs,
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  Speaker 1: the issue is dealing with the Senate and, of course,
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  Speaker 1: the House now being flipped, if in fact it does
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: get flipped, into a Democratic control.
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  Speaker 2: What actually gets done? Because most likely there's going to.
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  Speaker 1: Be a lot of turn toward Trump And almost every
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: entity related to Trump in terms of congressional hearings, impeachments,
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  Speaker 1: you name it. I wonder if they're going to have
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  Speaker 1: time to even negotiate with Iran because they're dealing with
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: what's coming out of these houses. Other things that play
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: into this is, of course, oil prices. Oil prices have
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: been a big signal on how inflation is being translated.
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  Speaker 2: Here's what happened.
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  Speaker 1: Oil prices this morning come down 3 percent last two hours.
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  Speaker 1: Reports this was in reference to another preliminary approval.
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  Speaker 2: Not going to happen.
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  Speaker 1: In fact, this is what happened. You get a rebound
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  Speaker 1: after we see the situation where there is no deal.
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  Speaker 1: And here's what I don't understand, guys, is why is
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  Speaker 1: everybody buying this and continuing to see these whipsaw type approaches?
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Because this is exactly what's happened over the last 18
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  Speaker 1: months in different market scenarios, especially in the last year
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  Speaker 1: with oil. So I just don't understand unless the market is,
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  Speaker 1: of course, has the other side of it, which is
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  Speaker 1: the manipulation of what's happening.
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  Speaker 2: With oil prices.
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  Speaker 1: So I don't know if you guys are investing in energy,
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  Speaker 1: but at least not maybe long term is fine, but
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  Speaker 1: definitely not on a trade. I want to go to
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  Speaker 1: a clip real quick because we're going to get into
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  Speaker 1: where midterms will clarify everything.
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  Speaker 2: Take a look.
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  Speaker 4: Is the market in the midst of a reset? I
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  Speaker 4: think this is a very interesting point in the market
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  Speaker 4: where we're noticing a very large differentiation between the institutional
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  Speaker 4: investor and the retail investor. So on the institutional side,
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  Speaker 4: there's rules-based unwinding based on either price or volatility level,
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  Speaker 4: but our retail clients continue to buy the dip pretty aggressively.
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  Speaker 4: In fact, retail last week bought semiconductors, neoclouds, memory stocks
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  Speaker 4: at the largest rate in 16 weeks. At the same time,
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  Speaker 4: institutional clients continue to de-lever. Is the earnings all clear
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  Speaker 4: to get back in, or is it the midterm election?
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  Speaker 4: Everyone is using the midterm elections as a level that
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  Speaker 4: is a clearing event for risk. And specifically, I think
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  Speaker 4: that's the period when AI can outperform again. So the
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: feedback that we're getting from our clients is happy to
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  Speaker 4: buy higher, but not buy now into a major price.
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: political event and on the geopolitical side, continue to be
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  Speaker 4: dominated by the macro tape.
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  Speaker 2: All right.
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  Speaker 1: That was Scott Rubner, who comes in from Citadel. And
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  Speaker 1: what he's talking about is what we are really facing
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  Speaker 1: right now. And that is, do we get a tech unwind?
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  Speaker 1: If a tech unwind does occur, what is that going
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  Speaker 1: to look like in terms of entering risk assets, which
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  Speaker 1: is what we're talking about today?
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  Speaker 2: You look at.
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  Speaker 1: Bitcoin right now, it seems to be that retail is
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  Speaker 1: starting to lead in, at least in the interim.
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  Speaker 2: And this is going into a midterm. So again, many
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  Speaker 2: things can happen.
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  Speaker 1: This is going to be a very volatile two weeks
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  Speaker 1: going into the midterms. The real question is on the
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  Speaker 1: other side, is there going to be something that starts
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  Speaker 1: to loosen up here? Citadel seems to think that might
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  Speaker 1: be the case as a clearing event.
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  Speaker 2: For risk assets.
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  Speaker 1: Other things, you have ETFs happening out there with BlackRock
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: just had its biggest inflow since the start of 2026.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: The only recent I bet net inflow this large was
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  Speaker 1: a few months ago in August. So you can kind
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  Speaker 1: of see it. I'll zoom in on that right there
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  Speaker 1: so you can see the chart. Pretty crazy. $ 665 million
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  Speaker 1: on October 19th. So nice little move. The other thing
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: they launched was this right here, which was PBIT. Many
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: people will call it something else. You guys will know
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  Speaker 1: what I'm talking about in the comments. But BlackRock is
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: now filing a limit to a Bitcoin's fund loss per tranche.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: This means It kind of holds you down to about
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: a 10% position in terms of a loss. But in exchange,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: you only get a cap number of gains. So it's
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: kind of a little bit more of a safe play.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: I don't know if people are going to be going
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: with this, but maybe there will be. Traditional finance, you know,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: might actually go into that if they're brand new to
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: crypto and thinking, hey, this is the way.
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  Speaker 2: I can go.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: I can only lose 10%. even though my max is
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: only set at this. So if you look at what
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  Speaker 1: BlackRock is doing on the security there of saying, hey,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I can only lose 10%. Now you have JP Morgan
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: coming in and saying, hey, we think this is going
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: to happen, meaning Bitcoin is going to outperform every major
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: asset class over the next 10 years. And they're setting
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: at a compound return of around 10%. It's interesting because
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: I think you're going to see a situation where you
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: have investors simply saying, hey, I'll go this route, which
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: is kind of the safe route. Granted, I may not
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: get the upside, but look at what I'm getting here
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: compared to what is maybe a slower growth for Bitcoin
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: over the next decade. If you guys agree with that
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: or not, let me know in the comments. I think
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin ends up outgrowing this And BlackRock wins both ways.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So big deals coming out there for sure. Institutional capital
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: coming in hot. Let's jump over to the Bitwise staking report.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: This is the Q4 report. A couple of points I
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: want to highlight. Ethereum staking hit an all-time high.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: 43.8 million ETH.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Guys, that's 35.9% of the supply. You also have a
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: stake rising while yields fail. And this, of course, is
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: with things like Solana, Near Protocol. and a handful of others,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: including Hype. So one thing to look at there is
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: that you've got institutions here that are committed, simply meaning
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: that they're locking this up. They're holding 35.9, 36% of
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: ETH supply. And they're not worried about the situation where
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: a stake rises while yields are falling. So they're just
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: holding right through this. So again, that kind of points
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: to institutions playing in this game much, much more. Speaking
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: of that, you've got a major institution in Hong Kong
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: that have now listed a licensed digital asset, stablecoin, that's
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: going to be traded over on Jupiter. This simply means
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: is China starting its entry into DeFi and is it
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: coming through Jupiter? We've talked about Jupiter many times here
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: on the show. You guys know you can follow the token.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: Look at the app, though.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: I would invite you to go out and take a
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: look at the app because it's a pretty interesting app
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: of what you can do in terms of DeFi. One
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: of the best out there, I think, right now. Other
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: things that are happening, of course, we have to reveal
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: what's happening with Ethereum and Sharplink.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: This was the latest news.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Sharplink deployed $ 400 million in ETH to earn yield. At
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: the same time, the company was increasingly exploring restaking in
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: DeFi to make their ETH treasuries more productive. While that
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: was happening, you had Joe Lubin and ConsenSys selling $ 48
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: million worth of Sharplink.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: This is a point that has kind of been hit on.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Now, many people would look at the two telling stories
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: here and say, oh, this might look bad for Ethereum,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: but in reality, the Ethereum is.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: Not being sold.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: And in fact, it may be setting up for one
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: winner in the long term when it comes to ETH DATS.
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: And we all know who that most likely will be.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: It looks like it would probably be a BM & R.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: Lubin and holders linked him.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: To hold, told regulators the sales was to liquidate their position.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: One video that we just did here, guys, I'm not
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: sure if this was going to land first or second.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: But make sure and check out the SEC findings.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: We revealed a lot of that.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: And it also gets into an interview that is a
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: good one to watch around tokenized securities. If you're into
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: stocks and what it's going to look like in DeFi,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: that's the one for you. We'll be covering more, so
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: stay tuned. If you like this video, hit like and subscribe,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: drop a comment down below, and also join our free
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: private member group.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: The link is in the description.