Latest / Financial Survival Network / Stock Market Crash Coming? James Locke #5910

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Stock Market Crash Coming? James Locke #5910 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  You know, the Federal Reserve jamed interest rates up so fast. The economy
• 0:04
  is holding on, but we definitely have you know, labor concerns how which
• 0:10
  has got to drive inflation up, things of that nature. At the housing
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  concerns. You know, we're going to start seeing oil going up. They're
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  talking about one hundred dollars of barrel now. Maybe one hundred dollars of barrel
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  now isn't what one hundred dollars of barrel used to be ten years ago.
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  But that's still expensive for oil that's gonna show up in our pocket. So
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  I see meaningful downside in the market ahead. Now you are listening to Carrie
• 0:32
  Let's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere
• 0:38
  else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network now
• 0:44
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  newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever. And welcome.
• 1:00
  You are listening to watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carry
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  Lotts. Well markets, what are they going to do? Our rates still
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  going to go higher. The Fed has taken a pause, but how long
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  will that pause last four. That's the question. I'd like to know your
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  opinion. How high will rates go? In your opinion, will we hit
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  double digits? Unlikely, but you never know. Hey, send us an
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  email k l at Kerry Lutz dot com. Right now, we've got our
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  good friend James Locke from poollock dot com with us. Hey, James,
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  great to have you back. And so the rates, what do you think
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  is going to happen here? I mean today, Hey, it's September twenty
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  five. Up until about a half hour ago, when I looked at markets,
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  they were pretty much read across the board. Is this a portent of
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  things to come? Or is it all just temporary? Now? I would
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  I would think it's in the ocasions of things to come. You know,
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  the Fed is indicated that we're going to stay here for a while, and
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  that actually spooked the markets a little bit. You know when when they didn't
• 2:13
  raise rates the last at the last meeting, they basically came out and said,
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  hey, we didn't raise rates, but you guys are all off target,
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  right, We're not going to be lowering as soon as you thought,
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  right, And you know, when when do they think that, you know,
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  it's gonna come around. Probably we might start here in chatter in the
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  first quarter next year. But I don't know that they're going to be cutting
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  rates, you know, any time soon, but as far as the market
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  is concerned. And we'll come back to the rates in a second. But
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  when I was trading options, I was always you know, I'd love looking
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  at charts and graphs and then things like that. So this one popped up
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  on me. The the equal waiting. So if you think the SP five
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  hundred equal weigh everything, we're two percent lower than the two hundred day moving
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  average. And I know it's just numbers, right, and you got to
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  take things in big pictures. But you know, history maybe doesn't repeat itself,
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  but it's certainly shadows when it rhymes is and it twains Excuse to me,
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  that's right? Please say so the you know the number of times that
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  this has happened before August of ninety eight, January of two thousand, September
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  of oh seven, October of twenty eighteen, in March of twenty twenty,
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  right, those are all prominent dates in financial history, so to speak.
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  Right, So I don't know what the future has got to hold, you
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  know, no one, no one has that crystal wall. I can only
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  look backwards, just like everyone else. But I see, you know,
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  the Federal Reserve jammed interest rates up so fast. The economy is holding on,
• 3:50
  but we definitely have you know, labor concerns how which has got to
• 3:53
  drive inflation up, things of that nature, the housing concerns. You know,
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  we're going to start seeing oil going up. They're talking about one hundred
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  dollars a barrel now. Maybe one hundred dollars a barrel now isn't what one
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  hundred dollars a barrel used to be ten years ago. But that's still expensive
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  for oil, and that's gonna show up in our pocket. So I see
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  meaningful downside in the market ahead. Now does that mean there's gonna be a
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  crash? I don't think so. But I have no reason to sit here
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  and say that. You know, you should just be in there with both
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  fists trying to buy. But there's bargains. I mean, look, Baradzon
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  Wireless, I can get an eight percent to dividend. There is it worth
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  the risk for a Verizon? And I'm not asking you to recommend Verizon.
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  I'm just giving it as an example of a stock that that's really pumping out
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  the dividends or like a stock like Wanderines, right, yeah, really absolutely,
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  and and you know what our you know, our our our a we're
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  pumping out about four and a half four point six percent dividend portfolio on our
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  stocks. I'm not anti stock walktever. I'm a bowl just like just like
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  the next guy. Right. I want the market to go up, but
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  in this environment, I think what you're talking about when Morizon blaw brands is
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  you want to make sure you're getting paid, right. We want to make
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  sure we're we're getting paid the right amount to take that risk. So we're
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  taking risk for reward sake, not just risk for risk sake. Uh,
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  you know kind of you know Willy Nilly and and that sort of thing.
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  I mean, I have a client. I love him daily. He's awesome.
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  He's just in love with Apple stock. Now, I can't tell you,
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  like all Apple does is go up. I mean, Apple only goes
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  up, right, that's kind but you know at some point it might not.
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  Or you know the other thing is at some point, you know maybe
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  you need to diversify that a little bit. And that's where you're right.
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  There are lots of bargains out there. So you know, we could have
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  a trickle down in the SMP and all the way back down to you know,
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  four thousand or something like that, and you know, break the bank
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  anywhere. But there's certainly lots of stocks and dividend pat stocks out there that
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  you know, can provide opportunity that will hold their value and pay you a
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  good dividend along the way. So how much risk you think there is,
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  uh, you know, in these higher dividend paying stocks if the market,
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  the broader market takes a big dive. I think if you're in the right
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  ones, you should be able to break even. I don't I mean a
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  big dive, you know, when you say a big dive like twenty twenty
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  two we're talking about. Yeah, if you talk about you know, once
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  you start talking about over twenty percent, it's hard to get yourself to that
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  break even point. You know. We were able to in twenty twenty two,
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  you know, to come out in the black very by very little,
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  uh you know. And of course consequently those same dividend stocks aren't going to
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  be soaring as much as they were this year, right, So you know,
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  he didn't he didn't get hit on the way down, you're not going
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  to scoop. But on the way back. Uh, once you start talking
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  about thirty thirty five percent drop, now it's hard. You know, everything's
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  you know, when the tide goes that low, everything, all ships are
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  going to sink a little. But I mean, if you know, I
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  was even just talking about you're talking ten percent drop. There's you know,
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  there's no reason you shouldn't be able to maintain these higher dividend pieces. And
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  and like I said, and even find some nuggets in there that are moving
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  in the right direction. So I don't know that we're going to have a
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  thirty percent drop. Don't don't quote me on that one. Hey, nobody
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  knows the future, but we can kind of try to guess. We got
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  to guess, right, you don't know the future, You've got to guess,
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  So I guess, is there a defensive posture to take? So it's
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  dividends talks. Yeah, they'll oututions and you know what's what's crazy, and
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  it's it's even you know sometimes I even when I look at things, but
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  you know, I always like the real estate, you know world, and
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  this might you know, interest rates as high as they are, you know,
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  there's only there's only so much land out there. And you know,
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  we're seeing people with these very low mortgages holding on to their their properties now,
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  right, So for sure, So now there's like now there's you're reducing
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  inventory kind of naturally, or or the FED kind of reduced inventory naturally,
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  or that might have been an effect of what happened. And guess what.
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  Guess what that does. That's going to push you know, pressure on inflation,
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  which is what we're trying to fight and in the long you know,
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  in the long run. So you know, I do think there's value in
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  the in the real estate as well. What I would hope happens. And
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  you know, I know this is almost you know, and then we're gonna
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  happen. But we got this government shut down, you know, kind of
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  hanging over us on October one, and you know, that's that's a that's
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  a storm that's brewing. But if people can communicate and not get to a
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  shutdown, but figure out a way to balance the budget, right, that's
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  going to help curb inflation greater than any you know, any quarter point with
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  it. By the fact, that's never gonna happen, right, I mean,
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  you're ever going to balance the budget. I'm praying, hey, right,
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  happen back in the nineties with Clinton, right right, A lots of
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  fake balancing because they were stealing from the Social Security Trust Fund. And there's
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  no trust fund left so they don't have that little scam to pull anymore.
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  So how do they do it right? Well? And then listen, I'm
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  with you, I don't. I don't know that they're going to be able
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  to balance it. And I think shutting the government down that's a that's just
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  a political tactic move. It hurts more people than it helps. You know,
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  in the long run, you know, your social Security check is still
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  going to get paid if the government shuts down on the first, So there
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  isn't you know, that kind of concern. But any sort of movement to
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  you know better fiscal conservativist is going to, like I said, make a
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  much bigger effect on the American people and their pockets down the line. You
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  know, commerce always holds that card and they never play it because you know,
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  it doesn't doesn't get votes, right, and you know that's the that's
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  the problem. Yeah, So I'd like to I'd like to see them,
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  I'd like to see them do more to work together to avoid this government shutdown
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  on the first in such a way that's actually going to help UH. Perfect
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  relationship, you know, that would be that would be the ideal situation.
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  So where are we going to end up the year here, James, your
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  prediction, I don't I don't see us. I think to fed whenever they
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  have their meeting in November is they're going to keep beating the dram and they're
• 10:50
  going to push that, you know, whenever races, you are going to
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  be cut even further out. I'd be surprised if we heard any kind of
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  positive news out of them. So I think we end up, you know,
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  closer to four thousand on the SMP than we do. To God,
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  We're gonna be checking you up and we're gonna see how close your prediction comes
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  to reality. James. Appreciate your coming on. Hey, thank you.
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  A question for James or myself? Shoot me an email k l at Krylotts
• 11:22
  dot com. And if you got to if you want to find James's link,
• 11:28
  Poollock dot com, it's in the show notes to this interview on Financial
• 11:31
  Survival Network dot com. Just click it take you right there. While you're
• 11:35
  there, sign up for your free newsletter. James, appreciate your time coming
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  on with us, and we will talk to you again by the end of
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  the year and hold your feet to the fire. Yeah that's fine, I
• 11:46
  love it. Thanks Carry, Thanks for listening to Carry Letts's Financial Survival Network,
• 11:52
  your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial
• 11:58
  Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,