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Transcript

Gold’s $5,000 Milestone and the AI Reality Check · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , traders !
• 0:02
  It is 5 am on Thursday , February 19th , 2026 , out here on the Pacific coast .
• 0:09
  You are listening to Spy Trader , and I am your host , Penny Pumpernickel .
• 0:14
  I have got my coffee in hand and my charts pulled up , ready to help you navigate another day in these fastmoving markets .
• 0:22
  We have a lot to talk about today , from the shifting chairs at the Federal Reserve to a massive milestone for gold , and of course , some big retail news hitting the wires as we speak .
• 0:33
  Let us dive right into the numbers .
• 0:36
  Yesterday , we saw the S&P 500 , which you can track through the SPY ETF , close at 6,881 .
• 0:45
  That is a nice little gain of over half a percent , leaving us just a stone's throw away from that alltime high of 7,002 we saw back in January .
• 0:55
  The Dow Jones also finished in the green at 49,662 .
• 1:00
  However , it is not all sunshine in techland .
• 1:04
  The Nasdaq , or the QQQ , finished at 22,753 , but it has been a rocky start to the year for Big Tech .
• 1:13
  Believe it or not , the giants of the industry have shed about 1.3 trillion dollars in combined market value since the calendar flipped to 2026 .
• 1:23
  Why ?
• 1:24
  Well , investors are now in a showmethemoney phase regarding Artificial Intelligence .
• 1:30
  They want to see those massive investments turn into real profits .
• 1:34
  In the technology sector , we are seeing some real separation .
• 1:39
  NVIDIA , ticker NVDA , is still the star of the show , jumping one point six percent yesterday after announcing a huge datacenter partnership with Meta Platforms , ticker META .
• 1:51
  But on the flip side , software companies like Workday and Palo Alto Networks have seen sharp selloffs because their earnings just did not live up to the high AI expectations .
• 2:03
  It is a picky market out there !
• 2:05
  Meanwhile , the energy sector is on fire this February , up about twentysix percent on average .
• 2:11
  Crude oil is pushing toward 66 dollars a barrel following some hawkish comments about Iran from Vice President JD Vance .
• 2:19
  This tension , combined with some tariff talk involving Canada and Europe , has investors looking for safety .
• 2:26
  That is likely why gold , tracked by the GLD ETF , just surged past 5,000 dollars an ounce for the first time ever .
• 2:35
  People are riding the stock rally but keeping some gold in the vault just in case things get bumpy .
• 2:41
  On the economic front , we are all talking about the Warsh Effect .
• 2:46
  Kevin Warsh has been nominated to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair , and the market is trying to figure out if he will be a hawk or a dove .
• 2:55
  Right now , rates are steady between 3.5 and 3.75 percent , but with the labor market looking a bit more fragile than we thought — only 181,000 jobs were actually added in all of 2025 after revisions — the Fed has a tough job ahead .
• 3:12
  So , how should we trade this ?
• 3:14
  Here are my recommendations for this Thursday morning .
• 3:17
  First , for your core growth , I like the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF , ticker MGK .
• 3:25
  It gives you heavy exposure to the big names like Microsoft , Apple , and NVIDIA .
• 3:30
  Specifically , Microsoft has been lagging the broader S&P 500 lately , which actually makes it a more attractive entry point if you want to bet on the longterm AI infrastructure .
• 3:40
  Second , you have to have a hedge .
• 3:42
  With those geopolitical tensions rising , I recommend holding some SPDR Gold Shares , ticker GLD , and the iShares U.S.
• 3:51
  Energy ETF , ticker IYE .
• 3:55
  If you want specific energy stocks with momentum , keep an eye on Kosmos Energy and Delek US .
• 4:01
  They are moving fast with the price of oil .
• 4:04
  Third , for some stability and income , look at the iShares Core U.S.
• 4:07
  Aggregate Bond ETF , ticker AGG .
• 4:10
  With the 10year Treasury yield near 4.1 percent , it is a great time to lock in some yield , especially if tomorrow’s inflation data comes in soft .
• 4:20
  Finally , keep your eyes on the big story of the morning : Walmart , ticker WMT .
• 4:26
  They report earnings today .
• 4:28
  Walmart is a trilliondollar company now and is acting more like a tech hybrid .
• 4:33
  If the stock dips after the news , I think it is a great buy .
• 4:37
  In a slowing economy , everyone trades down to Walmart , which gives them a very solid floor .
• 4:43
  That is it for this edition of Spy Trader .
• 4:45
  Stay disciplined , keep your eyes on the data , and I will see you back here in a few hours .
• 4:51
  Happy trading !