Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Return of the Ladies | MLB & WNBA | 7/28/26

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Tuesday BEST BETS | Return of the Ladies | MLB & WNBA | 7/28/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chicks, black coffee on the felt.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something ne somebody for show. Put
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Now, hold on, hold on nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Nice, now, hold on, hold on me for five. But
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: it don't get the crowd. Hold on, hold on, stay
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: with me, now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: What's up? Everybody is towed back with you.
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: With tostool Sports Tuesday, July twenty eighth, we went one
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: to oh and one on the show yesterday. Really felt
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: like it should have been a two and oh. I
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: mean the first five on the Mets and the fact
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: that they won the game in the full game fourteen
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: to three, and they weren't winning at the end of five.
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: It wound up being a push. It was three to three.
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to say about that. I mean,
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: the Mets are obviously the right side. I think they
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: should have been winning at the end of five as well.
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: They stranded a bay runner in the first inning. They
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: were losing one nothing, and they immediately tied it in
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: the first, but they also had a runner on third
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: with one out I'm pretty sure in the first and
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: didn't score that run. Then they took a three to
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: one lead in the third, So that's what they had
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: going into the fourth. They're up three to one. That's
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: looking pretty good for them to be winning at the
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: end of five. Nope, they give up two runs and
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: then that's three to three. And then the Mets had
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: a chance in the bottom of the fifth. They had
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: two hits in the bottom of the fifth, and they
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: couldn't score, stranded multiple base runners, and then they wound
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: up just completely unloading on the Atlanta bullpen. Atlanta had
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: one guy, I think Thomas or whatever was in there.
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: They just left him in there, and he gave up
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: eleven runs, which is I think the most in many
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: many decades given up by one single relief pitcher in
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: a game. Really, really ridiculous, Really felt wrong to not
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: gonna win on that. I mean, at least it wasn't
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: a loss, but still absolutely ridiculous. Almost went full game
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: on it, and that would have been an easy win.
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: We did win with Anaheim, which is one of those
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: ones that makes you feel like a genius because they
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: were immediately winning, and then they were winning four to
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: one at the end of the fifth.
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: It wasn't really much of a sweat at all.
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: So Anaheim won that bet in the first five and
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: then their bullpen totally imploded and.
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: They lost the game.
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: They gave up four runs in the ninth inning or
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: something and lost the game.
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: So that's one of those ones that makes you feel
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: really good, you exclude the terrible bullpen.
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: You get the first five right, and then the terrible
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: bullpen blows the game. So whatever we move on to today,
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: WNBA is back. I will give out one WNBA play
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: here on the show a Baseball. I have some opinions,
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: but I'm treading pretty lightly here, and my favorite play
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: is a first five total, So you know it's gonna
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: be an under and it's I think it's a pretty
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: under the radar one. And that's the only thing I
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: have in baseball today. And I mean, I don't know
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: the market. Reid has some indicators that are in agreement
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: made some indicators maybe not.
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: I don't love this board, Dirty sock, what's up? Thanks
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: for hanging out all right, and I know we've lost
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: over the last few weeks still, so trying to get back.
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: We're on a nice run here since last Wednesday ten
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: and two run, I think ten too and one whatever.
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: All right, we have a double header here, so we
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: have one afternoon game.
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: Cleveland and Cincinnati got rained out I presume yesterday, so
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: we have a doubleheader here. The first game looks like
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: it will be the same pitching matchup that was scheduled yesterday,
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: which I did break down, which is Chaconi against Burns.
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: When I talked about this game yesterday, basically what I
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: was talking about was, well, Cincinnati's returning on from a
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: road trip, so that's a negative spot.
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: So I was looking to maybe fade them.
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: They're coming back from a long road trip, and yeah,
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: they had an extra day off here, but I don't
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: think that helps like the road trip, which is what
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: it is, and when you have an extra day off,
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: I think it might actually be even more of a
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: negative because it gets you settled in at home. You
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: start getting distracted by the stuff you have to get
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: done at home. So I don't think that's good for Cincinnati.
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: So the situational spot favors Cleveland in my opinion, and
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: they're coming off a couple losses, actually five losses in
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: a row, getting swept by Tampa Bay. Start in the
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: middle of a road trip here extra day to maybe
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: get over that travel. So I think the spot definitely
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: favors Cleveland. But the problem is the pitching matchup does not.
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: Burns is obviously the better pitcher, but you're gonna have
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: to lay a huge price for Cincinnati if you want
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: to actually play Burns, which I would not do given
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: the situation here. Chacone or actually, I'll just go through
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: all the rest of these numbers here, which I did yesterday.
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: But you know, given that all the other teams that well,
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: not all the other teams, but whatever, it was like
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: twenty something other teams played yesterday.
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: So Cleveland has the better bullpen.
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: The ranked fifty teenth and whip Cincinnati twenty fifth. So
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: you got to give Cleveland a bullpen advantage here. Cincinnati
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: probably has a slightly better offense, but it's not good.
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: They're twenty third, Cleveland is dead last thirtieth Slate Jaconi
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: pitching for Cleveland.
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: He's not been that good.
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: Four point sixty ra one point four or five whip
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: is pretty bad.
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: He's a little bit worse on the road. Four point
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: eight to one.
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: Roady Ray hasn't been good recently, either a couple of
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: starts or he didn't go deep into these outings against
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: Minnesota and the White Sox, giving up some runs here
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: and not good. Some of the runs were unearned his
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: last time out against Minnesota. But he's not exactly in
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: good form right now. I would not say his overall numbers.
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is too high, so he's been too hittable.
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: His walk rate isn't too bad. Strake got rate is low.
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: He doesn't really fool anybody, so presumably he tries to
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: get some of his pitches past hitters, and he's not
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: able to do that, which is why they get hits
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: off him. However, the Reds specifically have not had much
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: success against him in forty three at bats, ten strikeouts,
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: one walk, two thirty three average six forty five ops.
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: So Chaconi at least might draw like a decent matchup here.
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: As I pointed out yesterday, that is not what I want.
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: No do I want to get tickets to this game. No.
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: Chase Burns was pitching for Cincinnati.
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: I mean he's been very very good two point four
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: to two ERA, one point one to one whip, really
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: good at home, two point three to two HOMYRA with
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: a sub two hundred batting average allot at home. He's
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: in good well, I'd say he's in pretty good.
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: Form right now.
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: Though he did have one really walk heavy outing recently
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: against Philadelphia, but the rest of his outings haven't really
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: been like that. The Reds have won seven straight starts
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: behind him, so yeah, he's obviously pitching well.
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: He's got a low.
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: Hit rate, pretty low walk rate here, high strikeout rate.
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: Any of these numbers you could really jab at.
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: I think I probably said yesterday the walks I guess
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: would beat but that's not even that bad. Only Bailey
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: in the Indians line has ever faced it before.
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: There he's zero for two with a strikeout.
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean, Burns has the unfamiliarity edge here,
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: so he should pitch well here. So it's one of
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: those things where it's the situation and the matchup are
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: kind of in conflict with each other. However, given the
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: situation and the fact they have to lay minus one
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: sixty something for Cincinnati, I mean it's not out of
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: the question that maybe you can make the argument to
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: play Cleveland full game and take advantage of the bullpens
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: as well, and maybe if Chaconi can somehow hang in
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: this game and then you get the bullpen advantage, maybe
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: they can come within that one run or whatever if
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: you're playing like a plus one run line on this thing.
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: But I believe my recommendation yesterday for that game was
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: the under in the first five innings, and I think,
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: I mean, I won't change my opinion on that. It
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: doesn't look like there's really much to read into the
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: ticket percentage, of market percentage or cash percentage on the
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: total looks like it's right around fifty to fifty on
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: both the full game totals nine. But first five under
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: makes some sense to me, as Chaconi looks like he
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: might actually be able to pitch okay against a lineup
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: that he specifically does well against him Burns, I don't
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: expect to be bad against this lineup, so first five
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: under makes some sense. I would avoid the Cincinnati bullpen there.
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: Game two, I actually think I like a little bit better.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: Cleveland has Gavin Williams pitching, and I think that he's
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: probably the way to look.
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: In this one, Williams.
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: Look, he's been good three point seven eighty Ray, one
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: point one whip. He's been worse on the road though,
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: four point five to five Roady Ray. However, it's kind
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: of been the home runs that have really given him
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: problems on the road. He does have a two to
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: twenty one opponent batting average there, so he's not really
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: that bad, and he's a good form right now. He's
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: had eleven strikeouts each and three straight starts, which is
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: not something you see much of in twenty twenty six.
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate has been insane recently, as a thirty
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: nine to three strikeout walk ratio in the month of July,
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: and he hasn't walked anybody in his last two outings either,
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: and he's got at least six innings and all three
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: of those last three outings. So yeah, he's obviously pitching
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: well right now. He did pitch against Cincinnati earlier this year,
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: and he pitched well in that outing. He's got a
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate. All
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: of his numbers are good here and as you could guess,
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: his numbers against well, actually they're not really as good
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: as you would think. In twenty five at bats. The
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: power numbers actually a little bit of a problem for him.
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: Against Cincinnati, He's held him to a two forty average,
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: but a seven to eighty five ohps is a little
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: bit high. Nine strikeouts, four walks. But I don't really
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: see why that ops is.
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: Really that high.
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: I mean, it is the math, but I mean they
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: only have a couple of extra base hits off him.
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: It's mostly dal La Cruz with a double and a
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: home run off him. I think Williams I would lean
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: towards him pitching well here and Cincinnati on the board
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: it looked like they were undecided on their pitcher for
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: this game too, But it looks like it is probably
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: going to be Brady's singer.
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: I would assume it will be because he was scheduled
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: to pitch. I mean, unless he's hurt.
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: I don't really see what else Cincinnati is gonna do
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: here in Game two, and why wouldn't you when you're
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: at home. Singer is better at home at least, so
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: I assume it will be him. He's got a four
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: point five to three ERA, one point three to eight whip,
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: not great, but he's been good at home at least
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: two point nine to eight home he ra way lower
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: upon a batting average at home. He's been significantly better
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: at home, even though it is a hit or friendly ballpark,
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: and Singer has actually been good for like the entire
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: month of July. He actually has been pitching well. He's
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: been in good form except for a walk heavy outing
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: in early July. Last three outings have all been quite good.
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: He's gone sixty two thirds innings or more in all
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: of them, three or few earned runs all out in
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: all of them.
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: Got the walk rate way down.
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: His overall numbers not great, though his hit rate's a
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: little bit high. His walk rate is okay, his strike
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: cut rate is kind of low. But he's not really
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: a strike up pitcher. But at least for him, he
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: is in good form right now. His numbers gets clear
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: are pretty rough, though Cleveland is pretty familiar with him
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: because he used to be on Kansas City until two
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: seasons ago. He's got one hundred and seven at bats
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: against them, three eighty three batting average, one thousand seventy
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: seven ops, seventeen to eleven strikeout walk ratio. None of
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: these numbers are good, and Jose Ramirez does a ton
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: of damage against him, so the fact that he's back
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: in that lineup might help Cleveland a bit there. So
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: I would lean Cleveland in that one, assuming that Singer
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: is actually gonna go. We don't know what the bullpen
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: situation is gonna look like, although I would still give
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: Cleveland a bullpen edge there even though we don't know
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: what the usage is gonna look like in Game one.
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I think Cleveland money line is probably the
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: right way to play that game. Looks like the money
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: is already kind of coming in that way. Seventy three
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the cash, they're
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: about minus one thirty. It's gone up a little bit
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: from like minus one twenty five. Totals kind of high
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: at nine with the money coming in on the over there.
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: I don't have as great of a feel for the
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: total there because I think that Williams is gonna have
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: the upper hand in that pitching matchup if it's against Singer,
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: or really if it's against anybody else, because you know,
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: it's not gonna be Burns.
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: Unless unless Cincinnati decides.
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: To switch pitchers really late or something, which I don't
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: think they're gonna do, so yeah, I mean you could
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: play that one. Williams must start and pick action on Cincinnati.
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: I think it will probably be Singer all right. Arizona
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: and Pittsburgh. This game was a lot lower scoring than
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: I thought it would be yesterday. Three to two win
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: for Pittsburgh yesterday in what looked like it wasn't really
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: a very good pitching matchup. The MK is pitching yesterday.
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh is still the less sort of.
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: The two bullpens here. That's not gonna change.
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: They use four guys yesterday, Arizona only used three. Arizona
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: is ranked fifth in bullpenal, though I still don't think
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: they're really that good because the era is still above four,
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: but they're decent bullpen. Pittsburgh is in the bottom ten.
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: They're twenty fourth, so yeah, they're not very good. Pittsburgh
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: is the better offense, especially at home. They're third overall,
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: but they're really good. They're number one at home. They're
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: in the number one home offense. Arizona is twentieth tie
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: with the Red Sox, so Pittsburgh has an offensive edge.
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: Pitching matchup in this one is kind of interesting.
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: They're positives and negatives for both Brandon fott Is pitching
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: for the Diamondbacks here, not having the greatest season here
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: four point four to three RA one point three.
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: To two WHIP.
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: However, he's gotten better recently and he does have a
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: better ERA, at least on the road three point eight
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: to two roadi ARA, though his opponent batting average is
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: higher on the road. But they sent him to the miners,
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: and he's made five starts since coming back, and he's
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: given up two or fewer earned runs in all of them.
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: He's got at least five innings in all of them,
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: and Arizona's won all five games. So fat he seems
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: to have turned something around being sent to the miners.
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: Maybe he's more focused. Maybe he worked with some coaches
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: and fixed something. I don't know, because he used to
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: be an okay pitcher and he's not really old now.
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: I guess.
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: The caveat to this is that he faced almost entirely
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: weak offenses since coming back, although he did do pretty
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: well against the Dodgers, but other than that, he faced
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: Giants San Diego and Saint Louis twice, and those are
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: not good offenses. Pittsburgh is a much better offense than
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: all of those teams except.
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: For the Dodgers.
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: Fott has not done well against Pittsburgh in the past.
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: They have thirty two at bats against some three twelve average,
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: nine to zero three zerops, four to three strike out
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. So his run might kind of come to
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: an end here and he might have a more difficult
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: start here.
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: I'm kind of leaning that way, even.
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: Though he's been good since coming back from the Miners,
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: but this is not an ideal matchup for him. Bubba
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: Chandler is pitching on the other side though for the Pirates,
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: he's just had way.
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: Too many walks.
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: Man, He's a young guy that has talent, he has
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: strikeout ability, but his walk rate has been really a problem.
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: Four point four to seven e RA, one point three
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: to nine WHIP. He's been worse at home as well,
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: four point six to two homey RA and as you
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: can see, his opponent batting average allowed his low, which
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: tells you that if his numbers look like this, that
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: means that it's the walks that are the problem. He
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: was good last time out against the Yankees, though he
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: got his walks way down through six and a third
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: shutout innings against him, and they still lost the game
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: was not his fault whatsoever, though he was.
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: Really good there.
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: Prior to that, he was kind of struggling. He wasn't
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: pitching that well. His wildness was kind of an issue.
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: He had a run in June where he wasn't really
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: that bad. Overall, he's got a pretty low hit rate,
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: which is good. His strike out rate is okay, but
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: his walk rate is terrible.
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: Like that's his one again.
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: That's the one huge problem that he has is he
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: walks more than one guy every two winnings. You cannot
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: do that. He's been good against Arizona in the past.
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: They only have whatever this is, seven guys to face him,
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: only thirteen at bats one fifty four average, seven thirty
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: eight ohps three four strikeout walk ratio ratio not good,
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: but the rest of these numbers.
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: Are pretty decent.
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: So if you're looking at just the matchup numbers, Chandler
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: would be the way that he want to look in
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: this game, And maybe I agree with that, although I
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: don't really necessarily want to go against Fotuh given that
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: he has pitched better since his minor league stint.
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: But it does look like the money kind of agrees
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: with Pittsburgh here.
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: Even though you'd think Pittsburgh would be the more public team,
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: but it seems like that hype has kind of gone away.
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh has been about minus one sixteen in the money line,
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: like basically the whole time here hasn't really moved. Fifty
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: four percent of tickets on Arizona, fifty percent of the
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: cash on Arizona total at nine with money coming in
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: on the over as well.
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: I could see the argument for the over.
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, both these pitchers, they're pretty you know, both
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: these pitchers definitely have question marks, and I don't love
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: either bullpen. So the over, if you're gonna play the total,
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: probably the lean would be over. But I think probably
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: the lean for me, like the best lean in that
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: game is probably Pittsburgh in the first five innings. To
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: just play that starting pitching matchup there. I don't think
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: I would trust Chandler enough though, and I don't really
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: necessarily want to fade fot either. All right, Baltimore and Detroit.
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: Detroit lost yesterday. They've lost three games in a row.
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: I mean Detroit. We're getting to the point where it
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: looks like Detroit is probably going to sell at the
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: trade deadline, and they're gonna trade school ball, which is
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: gonna be ridiculous, and just for my sake, I just
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: hope anybody besides the Yankees get them. That's all I
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: care about. Baltimore has been playing a little bit better recently.
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: Their bullpen especially has been better recently. Their numbers overall,
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: they have a worse RA than Detroit, but they're ranked
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: as a better bullpen. Baltimore is eighth right now in bullpen.
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: Their whip has gone way down. Their eras below four now,
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: so they've been a good bullpen recently.
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: Detroit is seventeenth.
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: I don't think they're really that bad either, but I
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: would give Baltimore a little bit of a bullpen edge
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: just current form has been significantly better for them, and
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: otherwise it's kind of close between the two. Offensively, these
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: teams are pretty close. Baltimore's seventeenth Detroit nineteen. Dean Kreamer
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: is getting the start for Baltimore here. I don't really
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: think he's that good, even though his whip would tell
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: you that. His ray is misleadingly high right now, though,
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: but he doesn't really have that many starts this year
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: because he was injured. He's got a five point oh
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: six era, but at one point one to nine whip,
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: so his whip tells you that his ray really should
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: probably be more like in the high threes right now.
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: So he's pitched pretty well, but if you look at
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: his career, he's been really kind of a mediocre pitcher.
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: He's got a six point one nine Roady ray here
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: as well, which isn't good obviously, but it's a small
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: sample size and the opponent batting average is still not
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: really that bad.
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: Creamer gave up.
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: A lot of runs last time out against the Red Sox,
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: but he still had his command to strike out walk
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: ratio is still good, so you could make the argument
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: he got a little bit unlucky in that start, although
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: his last three starts really have not been that impressive,
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: so I am not really gonna say that. I think
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: he's really in good form right now. His overall numbers
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: look pretty good, though his hit rates reasonably low, his
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: walk rate is definitely low, strike got rate is somewhat high,
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: so those numbers look pretty good. Against Detroit, he's been
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: very mediocre though in sixty eight at bats fourteen to six,
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: strike a walk ratio two sixty five average seven fifty
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: one ohps. So those numbers are right around that average
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: threshold that I look for, so he doesn't really have
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: the advantage over them, but they don't have the advantage
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: over him really either. He's gonna have to go up
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: against Troy Melton though for Detroit, who's been pitching really
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: well since they brought him up last year.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: He's looked like he could definitely do this.
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: Even though I think his numbers are unsustainable here, but
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: he's pretty good. He's got a one point nine to
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: five ERA, point nine to five whip.
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: I expect those numbers to go up, but.
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: I think he's still solid. He's got a two point
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: sixty three homy RA. He's actually worse at home, even
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: though he still has a blow two hundred opponent batting
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: average here at home. The walks have kind of been
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: an issue for him recently. He's had four walks in
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: each of his last two starts, but he's held his
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: opponents off the board still. He's allowed two or fewer
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: earned runs in all but one start this season, pitching
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: sixty innings so far. He's got a really low hit rate,
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: his walk rates, fairly low, strikeout rate is okay, So yeah,
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: he's I think he's pretty legitimate, even though he's not
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: a huge strikeout pitcher, and Detroit's won all four of
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: his starts in June, He's faced a couple of difficult
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: offenses to face in there. Numbers against Baltimore are very good.
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: Of the Baltimore only as six hitters to face him,
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: only eighteen at bats. They only have one hitoff him though,
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: a single from Alonzo. Six strikeouts, one walk, that's an
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: fifty six average and one sixty one ops against him.
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: I think I got a lean to Detroit, man, even
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: though I don't know what their mindset is gonna be
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: on this three game losing streak here, but I think
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: I would just take Detroit. I don't know if I
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: would go full game on it. I don't really know
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: which bullpen I would say really necessarily has the advantage here.
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: Detroit first five maybe could be a look here.
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: You might have to lay a half run though to
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: get the price down because on the full game they're
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: like minus one forty something, and that numbers actually dropped
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: a little bit from the opener. But Detroit has sixty
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: five percent of tickets eighty two percent of the.
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: Cash on them.
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: I think that's probably the way to look is to
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: look towards Detroit first five.
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: I think they have the better of the matchup.
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: I don't know if it's that significant though, And yeah,
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: you have to lay a half run probably with Detroit
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: if you do it that way. Money's also backing the
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: under nine in this game. I could see the argument
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: for it. I mean, you have two capable bullpens at least,
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: and both starters have been pretty good so far, so
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: they're probably there's probably a better argument for the under
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: than the over in that game.
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: That is what I will say about it.
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia at Miami and that game yesterday was crazy. Miami
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: ended their twelve game losing streak beating Zach Wheeler. And
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: what I told you about that game was Philadelphia was
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: in a terrible spot. Philadelphia had to play the Sunday
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: night game and they beat the Yankees handily, so they
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: were in what I thought was a letdown spot. Plus
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: the quick turnaround time off the night game not a
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: good spot. But my problem with it was I really
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: did not want to fade Zach Wheeler and that one
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: Wheeler was not good in the game. The Marlins jumped
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: on him and the Marlins had a pretty big leader
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: early and then the Marlins actually blew the lead and
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: I think they were up five to two, and then
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: they were down seven to five, and then the Marlins
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: won on a walk off. I think at the ends
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: of the Marlins, I could see this going both ways here.
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: Man Like, that was a huge win for the Marlins.
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: You could argue they could.
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: Be in a letdown spot after that a huge divisional
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: win against one of those cy young contenders in Wheeler.
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: But you could argue that it's positive for the Marlins
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: too because they finally ended a losing streak of twelve
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: games or whatever.
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: So when a team breaks a losing streak.
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: Sometimes that gives them new positive momentum moving forward. So
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: I could see both arguments for Miami here. I could
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: see the argument that Philly should bounce back off of
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: that loss. The problem with that thinking is that you're
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: not backing one of Philly's better pitchers here. If you're
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: going to try to back Philly here Miami, me let
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: me see bullpen usage kind.
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: Of heavy yesterday. They used four guys.
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: There were a lot of runs coming home kind of
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: late in that game, but most of them against Phillies
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: bullpen if Philly used five relief pitchers, so Philly's bullpen
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: is not really in good shape here. Miami has the
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: bullpen edge. I would say the rank sixth right now.
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: I don't think they're that good, but they're better than Philly,
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: who's at twentieth.
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: Right now.
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: Miami has the better era and whatever. Miami's had the
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: better offense as well.
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: They ranked eighth.
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: Philadelphia has struggled and they've definitely struggled on the road.
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: As I said, they're twenty or I don't know if
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: I mentioned it. They're twentieth, tied with the Red Sox.
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: I mentioned it because well, I mentioned the Diamondbacks, but
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: Philly's tied with both of them. Aaron Nola is pitching
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: for Philly. I don't think he's backable right now, man.
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's a veteran. He used to be good,
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: so that's why he's sticking in the rotation. The thought is, well,
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: maybe at some point he's gonna bounce back from all
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: these injuries he's had, but I don't know about it.
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: He's still not really that old thirty three. He's got
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: some capability in there, but he's been bad a five
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: point eight two Era one point four or five whip.
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: He's been better on the road though, five point zero
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: six Roadie Ray, so he might actually pitch a little
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: bit better.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: Given that this is on the road.
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: But Philly's lost five starts in a row for him.
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: He's not really in good form right now, although his
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: command numbers have actually been all right this month in July,
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: they've actually been pretty good, so you could argue he's
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: getting a little bit unlucky via the home run ball here,
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: so maybe he is actually pitching a little bit better
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: than it looks. His hit rate has been way too
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: high though, and he's a lot of way too many
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: home runs, so it has become a pattern.
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: His walk rate isn't that bad.
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is actually kind of high, so that
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: does kind of indicate that his stup is like still
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: there somewhere. Like usually if a guy's going to be
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: that affected by having Tommy John surgery and whatever injuries,
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: you usually see a huge drop off of the strikeout rate,
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: but that hasn't happened with him, but it's been he's
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: been way too hittable, so it does look like that
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: is still kind of ant that his fastball has just
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: become too hittable though, and he's allowed way too many
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: home runs, So yeah, I don't think he's trustworthy here.
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: His numbers against Miami are also not good. In forty
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: at bats three hundred average, seven fifty ops, not as
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: much as you would think because they haven't really hit
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: him for power, but that's still not very good. Ten strikeouts,
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: no walks though, so that's good, but Miami has been
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: able to hit him a little bit. Miami's going with
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: Sandy al contre here, who's having a pretty good season,
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: given that he's also a guy that has had his
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: career trajectory pretty much thrown off by all the injuries
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: that he's had, and his velocity has definitely gone way down,
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: but he's finding a way to pitch given all that.
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: Four point one ERA, one point two to three whip,
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: not too bad. He's been good at home this year
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: three point twenty six homy ra two thirteen opponent a
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: batting average at home, so he's been significantly better at home.
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: Wasn't great last time out against Houston, but his command
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: was kind of still there, although his strikeout rate dipped
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: a bit in that game. His strike out rate overall
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: hasn't really been that good. I mean, it's just not
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: there anymore. But he hasn't really allowed that many hits
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: or really that many walks, and he's pitched a lot
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: of innings this year, so he's going out there and grinding,
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: which is at least a decent sign. Although Miami's lost
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: three starts in a row of his but really only
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: one of them he actually kind of gave it up,
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: which was Houston. The other two games wasn't It wasn't
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: really his fault. Alcontra has not been good against Philly,
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: though they have two hundred and eighty five at bats
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: against them, so they're really familiar with him. They have
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: a three ZHO nine average, eight to twenty ops, fifty
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: six to twenty three strike out walk ratio, and this
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: includes way back in the day when Alcondra was better
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: as well, so that's not a good sign. He basically
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: looks like he's never been good against Philly. So I
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: think the way to look at this game is probably
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: to just take the game over the total rather than
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: try to figure out the side here. I mean, there
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: are probably some arguments from Miami here, and the money
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: seems to agree with that seventy five percent of tickets
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: fifty six percent of the cash on Philly. So the
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: public is kind of expecting Philly to mounts back, like,
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: oh my god, Miami sucks. They've lost so many games
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: in a row, and Philly has the better record. Here's
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: the public coming in on Philly. But as I pointed
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: out repeatedly on the show, Philadelphia still has a negative
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: run differential on the season, so they're not as good
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: as their record looks like. Their run differential tells you
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: they should be a losing team, and Miami did just
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: break that losing streak, so they may have that new
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: found momentum here. And just on the surface, it looks
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: like you'd rather vack al Contra than Nola because he's
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: been the better pitcher this year. Miami is a slight
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: favorite here. It's gone up a little bit. They're about
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: minus one fifteen, seventy five percent tickets, fifty six percent
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: of cash on Philly. I think I already said that,
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: but I think I like the over better the totals
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: at eight, which is quite reasonable.
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: I know this is a pitcher friendly park, and whatever the.
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: Money seems to not agree with me on that eighty
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: three percent of ticket sixty one percent of the cash
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: on the over. But I think that would be my
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: preference in the game, given what we see with the
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: pitching matchup numbers there and whatever and the bullpen and
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: don't really to me look like they're in great shape either,
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: So that's what I would do in that game. Texas
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: and Tampa Bay, these teams. Tampa Bay has a rest
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: edge because Tampa Bay was off yesterday and Texas was not.
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is also staying at home, although maybe they're
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: a momentum from sweeping Cleveland, maybe that'll be a little
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: bit disrupted by having yesterday off. But Texas did not
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: have yesterday off, and in fact, Texas was involved in
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: a really big divisional battle and they beat Seattle yesterday,
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: which I was not really expecting.
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: So they're coming in from that.
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: They're starting a road trip, which usually is a focused spot,
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: but they could be in a letdown spot because they
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: just gave.
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: Themselves a two game lead in the Al West.
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: And maybe you don't overlook Tampa though, becus Tampa's a
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: pretty good team as well, but Texas probably feeling pretty
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: good about themselves and they had to play yesterday and
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: have to travel and Tampa Bay doesn't have to do
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: either of those things. Tampa has the travel edge and
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: the rest edge here. As far as the whoops, I
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: meant to go to Texas here, Texas used three guys yesterday.
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: They use some of their better relievers yesterday as well.
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: Texas has really fallen off in the bullpen department.
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: Tampa's ranked fourth.
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: Texas, who I expected to be good, and they were
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: good up until recently.
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: They're sixteenth right now.
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: They're probably at a bullpen disadvantage here, given that they
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: don't have rest right now like Tampa Bay does, and
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: they've been worse than Tampa Bay for a while now,
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: so Tampa's got to have the bullpen edge here. Tampa's
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: sixth in offense, tied with Milwaukee, and they're also Tampa's
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: very good at home, just generally. Texas is twelfth, tied
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: with Minnesota on offense. Texas is better offensively on the road,
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: but yeah, Tampa Bay is a very very difficult team
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: to beat at home. I think they have the best
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: home record in baseball. Still, they're very, very difficult to
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: beat at home. Texas is listed as having an undecided
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: starter here. I believe they will be using cal Qwantra,
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: but they might put an opener in front of them,
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: so just be aware of that. If you're gonna play
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: this game, you might just want to play Action on
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: this game, or at least pick Texas Action here, because
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: I think it will be Quantrell pitching here, but they
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: might put an opener in front of him and then
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: have Quantrell come in in the second inning. Quantrell, I mean,
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: he's not a good pitcher, but he's been serviceable of
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: four point zero five ERA one point three to one whip.
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: He's been a little bit better on the road ERA
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: wise three point nine to six, but his batting average
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: is way worse on the road at two seventy four
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: batting average allowed. He was not good in his last
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: two outings though, so he's not really in good form
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: right now. He wasn't striking anybody out really prior to
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: that either. I don't think he's very trustworthy. Allows about
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: one hit per inning. His walk rate is okay. Strike
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: out rate is very low though, so he doesn't fool anybody,
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: doesn't strike guys out. He pretty much just tries to
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: get guys to hit into outs. His numbers against Tampa
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: Bay are actually not bad though. In thirty one at
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: bats two twenty six average seven to one OPS allowed,
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: six to four strike out walk ratio. So maybe Quandrill
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: can come in and give you a decent performance here
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: and keep Tampa's run production down a little bit. I
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: think Tampa still has the better pitching setup here with
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: Griffin Jacks, even though he's not really special I mean, sorry,
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: he's a converter reliever, but he's had a decent season
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: here three three point eight to ninety arra one point
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: two to whip. I don't know if Tampa Bay is
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: going to try to use an opener in front of
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: him or not.
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: I think typically they haven't been. I don't know.
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: He's made sixteen starts out of his twenty seven appearances.
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: So far, so I don't know, but he's pitching pretty well. Recently.
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: He had one start where who else the Red Sox
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: put up a bunch of runs against him, But he
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: wasn't even that bad in that start. Like I think
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: he got a bit unlucky there. He had good command numbers.
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: I feel like I just said that with Dean Kreamer.
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: I think it was so very similar performance to that
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: Jacks has had pretty good command numbers, though recently so
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: he's not actually pitching that poorly, and he's allowed very
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: few runs really since the beginning of or since his
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: second start in June. I should say he's a lot
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: more than three earned runs only once, and yeah, more
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: than two urn runs only three times.
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: All Right, he's got a.
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: Reasonably low hit rate here is walk rate's pretty low.
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: Strikeout rate is actually more than one per inning, believe
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: it or not, so he actually does have decent strikeout
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: ability against who we're talking about here. I already forgot Texas. Yeah,
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: he's been good against Texas and twenty three at bats
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: one thirty average allowed four to ninety two ops, four
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: to three strikeout walk ratiom So I still think Tampa
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: is probably the way to play this game. That one
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: hasn't made the cut for me, but they got the
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: rest advantage. I think they have the better pitching set
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: up here as well, and as of right now, they
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: got the better bultpen as well. The problem is you
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: got to lay a big price with Tampa if you
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: want them. The odds makers know that they're really good
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: at home. They're the better team according to the oddsmakers here,
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: and they have the rest edge, which is definitely being
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: factored into that line. I think without the rest edge,
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: they'd probably be like minus one sixty incent of minus
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: one eighty. The line hasn't really moved much, but they're
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: minus one eighty. However, the fact that the line hasn't
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: moved should worry you if you want to play Tampa here,
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: because ninety one percent of the tickets are on Tampa
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: eighty four percent of the cash. So if the public
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: is coming in on Tampa and the line's not moving,
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: that kind of indicates although the public doesn't really they're
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: not really going to sway like public doesn't move lines,
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: except for in like the NFL, when there's so much
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: public action that it can actually have an effect.
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: Line moves are typically just.
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: Happening from professional money in sports like this in baseball,
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: especially like midweek.
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: You know whatever.
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: But ninety one percent of tickets, eighty four percent of
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: the cash on Tampa Bay and the line just hasn't
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: really moved, So that kind of just tells you the
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers seem like they're just fine with taking all this
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay money here, So that would worry me a
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: little bit about it. I would still lean that way,
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: but obviously I'm not gonna put that on my hard
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: or anything. But you'd have to make a minus one
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: run line or something with Tampa Bay probably if you're
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: gonna try to do that. I do think they should
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: have enough edges in that game to win, but I
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: would not want to have my money on it. The
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: next game will be my only play in baseball today.
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: We're gonna take Toronto and Washington under four and a
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: half in the first five. I saw five out there too,
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: but I didn't want to pay minus one thirty four it.
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: But you can get the four and a half.
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: At plus money. Hopefully that fifth run doesn't matter here.
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: But I think this total is high given what the
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: starting pitching matchup is. Bieber is still getting the disrespect, man.
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: I backed him last time. I'm just gonna do it again.
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: While it looks like he's kind of coming back into
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: form here. I think we have a good starting pitching
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: matchup here.
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: I know Washington they play a lot of high scoring
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: games at home, but yesterday was not high scoring, and
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: that was I thought the over was gonna hit in
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: that way.
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: That was Scherzer against Alvarez, who might have had an
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: opener in front of him and that game only resulted
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: in five runs.
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: If that game is gonna be a five run game,
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: you gotta think that this game is gonna be.
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: Low scoring with these pitchers starting, because this is a
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: way better pitching matchup than yesterday. Though of course I
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: know it's baseball, maybe it won't happen, but this is
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: also an under the radar pitching matchup where I don't
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: think the public is gonna want to come in and
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: play the over or play the under here at all.
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: Washington did use three relief pitchers yesterday. Toronto used a bunch.
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: I don't think Surez was in the game very long.
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: If he did, he even pitch, I don't know. Toronto
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: unloaded their entire bullpen. Basically, they use six guys out
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen, including Ireland, who was twenty two for
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: twenty two and save opportunities by the way, So I
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: don't want to deal with these bullpens here. Toronto is
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: a decent bullpen, they are ranked thirteenth, but given that
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: they use everybody yesterday, I don't want to deal with that,
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: and I never want to deal with Washington's bullpen unless
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna fade them. They're twenty six, so I'm gonna
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: avoid the bullpens here. Washington is the number one offense,
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: so I know we're taking an under with a really
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: good offense here, but Toronto is twenty ninth, so we're
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: also taking the under with one of the worst offenses
• 37:09
  Speaker 4: in baseball, and we're gonna we're looking at the pitching here.
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: Man Shane Bieber.
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: I know his numbers still don't look good four point
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: seventy RA, one point four to three WHIP, but I'm
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: gonna say it again, He's only thirty one years old.
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: I don't think he's done yet. I think the tales
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: of his career demise have been greatly exaggerated. I mean,
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: he's just trying to stay healthy do like he's been.
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: Whenever he's actually pitched throughout his career and been actually healthy,
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: he's been good, okay, like including last year when he
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: had a very injury plague season. He was still good
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: when he pitched last year, and I understand that when
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: he came back this year he wasn't pitching well for
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: a bit, but that's turned around completely.
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: He's been excellent in his last two starts.
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: Toronto has won his last three, by the way, but
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: his last two he's gone six plus innings in both
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: of them against some offense that aren't that weak either,
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: White Socks in Tampa Bay, and he only allowed one
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: run across thirteen innings, only six hits, had nine strikeouts
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: and two walks. He dude, he's pitching well right now.
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: He's pitching somewhat efficiently too. Like they took him out
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: around the eighty eighty five pitch mark in those last
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: two games, and he was able to go deep into
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: those games.
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: I think that's a good sign he's out there. He's
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: pitching pretty well. Again. I know, his overall numbers still
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: don't look that great.
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: His hit rate's still high, his walk rate is just
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: kind of okay, and his strike out rate still looks low.
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: But again, yeah, even.
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: Though his strike out rate hasn't really returned, he is
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: still pitching better right now. And Washington has basically never
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: seen him. They only have three guys to have faced
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: him before. They only have one hit off him, which
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: is Abrams, who is being talked about as a trade
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: a potential trade target here for other teams.
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: So that's the other thing.
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: Washington might be selling at the trade deadline, so that
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: might be in the head of some of these hitters
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: here thinking, oh my god, I don't even know if
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna get traded or not.
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: So we'll see.
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: But Abrams has the only hit they have off of Bieber,
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: which is a single. They only have nine at bats
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: off him. They have a one to eleven average, two
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: twenty two o ps, one strikeout in no walks. I
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: think Bieber should be able to pitch well here. Again,
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: he looks like he's in good form right now. He's
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: found something, he's figured something out again, he's been really
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: good throughout his career, and he's facing a Washington lineup
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: that really has.
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: They're not familiar with them.
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: sEH me an extra edge. And we're also back in
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: Kid Cavali here, who he looks like. He's like a
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: pretty legit pitcher.
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: Dude. He's got a three point five eighty ray.
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: He's got his whip down at this point to one
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: point twenty nine, which is not too bad. He's a
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: little bit worse at home three point nine home hee array.
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: And by the way, I should mention, yes, I know
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: Bieber has been bad on the road.
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: I get it.
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: He's let me see, he's got a nine point three
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: to five roadier ray, I understand that, and his both
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: of his good starts have been at home.
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: I get that.
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: But I'm still gonna do this here, kid, Cavali. I know, yeah,
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: the home road splits don't really favor him either, But
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: just look at the current form.
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: He's got a twenty five to five strike out walk ratio.
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: In the month of July, he's allowed three or fewer
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: earned runs, and all but one start going all the
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: way back through the beginning of June three point one
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: era in the month of July. He's pitching well man,
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: and he's facing some pretty good Look at his run
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: in July here, Man, he had kind of a bad
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: start against Pittsburgh, but they were a good offense. Then
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: he had to face the Yankees and then on the
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: road in the two most hitter friendly parks in baseball,
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: the A's in Colorado, and he pitched well in both
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: of those games. So yeah, Cavali, he's pitching well man.
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: He's got a high strikeout rate. His walk rate is
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: his hit rate, excusing his gone below one per inning. Finally,
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: his walk rate is not really that high either. He
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: looks good to me, and he's facing a weak offense
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: in Toronto that has never seen him before, so he
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: has unfamiliarity here as well. I think he should have
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: the advantage as well in this pitching matchup. So yeah,
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: this is my own only baseball play.
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: I like it.
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: When I went through the car this morning, I was like, yeah,
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: I definitely like this one under in the first five
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: innings here, and the money seems like it is agreeing
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: with me based on what we see here. Sixty four
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: the under here for the full game, which is at
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: nine or eight and a half. But we get a
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: pretty nice number on this in the first five, So
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: that's what we're gonna do. If you want to pay
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: to get up to a five, I mean, I'm not
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: gonna tell you not to do that. So whatever you're
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: more comfortable with four and a half at plus money
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: looks pretty good to me as well. So we're getting
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: a fairly high number here. The high number is really
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: what kind of worries me. The oddsmakers are telling you
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: that they think it's gonna be a somewhat higher scoring
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: game with a total of nine, but for Washington home games,
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: that's not really that high of a total, and some
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: of it has to do with the bullpen situation here,
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: especially Washington's not being good. So we're only focusing on
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching here, all right. Next game is Braves
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: and Mets. The Mets won four teen to three yesterday
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: and we didn't even get a win with the first five.
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: At least it was a push, but.
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: I think there were many opportunities to get that win. Man,
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: the Mets only trailed in the first inning and they
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: never trailed again for the rest of the game, so
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: they really should have had that for us in the
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: first five. When do you see a team win by
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: eleven runs of fourteen to three and not be ahead
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: at the end of five as well.
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: It's ridiculous. But anyway, this is a different game.
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: Maybe Atlanta's gonna bounce back here after a really really
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: ugly loss to the Mets yesterday. They have the guy
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: on the mount who could do it with Chris Sale.
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: But I'm gonna dig into these matchup numbers here, and
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: things don't really look as good as you would think
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: for Chris Sale coming into this, Like my first reaction
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: to this was, it's the CS battle, not computer science.
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: It's not my not my academic, not the academic.
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: What's the world I'm looking for the academics that I
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: went through with CS. But no, it's Chris Sale against
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: Christian Scott, And I was thinking, this looks like it's
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: gonna be an under. The Osbeakers have put up a
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: really low total because they pretty much know these are
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: two good starting pitchers here, but you start digging into this,
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: I would not really want to play an under here. Now.
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: Atlanta's bullpen is in good shape again because they.
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: Only used Thomas yesterday and they just let them get
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: wrecked for eleven runs, so they saved the rest of
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: their bullpen, so they probably have a bullpen advantage here.
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: The Mets only used.
• 43:23
  Speaker 4: Two though because it was a blowout, so both teams
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: their bullpen's in decent shape here.
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: Atlanta's number two.
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: They've fallen behind the Red Sox in Whip and they're
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: still behind the Red Sox and Yankees and Era by
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: a bit now, especially because yesterday definitely hurt their bullpen numbers.
• 43:40
  Speaker 4: The Mets are ninth. They've been a decent bullpen still.
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: Braves have the better offense.
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: Obviously. The Braves are ninth, tied with the Yankees.
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: The Mets are twenty sixth and now without Wan Soto,
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: but they put up fourteen runs yesterday.
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: Chris Sale, though, is pitching for Atlanta.
• 43:58
  Speaker 4: I mean, I know, I'm gonna show you that his
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: numbers are not good against the Mets, but the Mets
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: are not gonna score fourteen runs in this game. Chris
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: Sale has a two point one to ninety ray one
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: point zero five whip. Obviously, he's been pretty much elite
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: this season, though he's not quite as good on the
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: road two point seventy nine roady Ray, which is still good.
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: He's in good form right now.
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: He's looked really good, good command numbers over the really
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: over the entire season, pretty much like he really hasn't
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: even fallen out a form.
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: He's had like a like one or.
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: Two blips on the season, but he's been really good otherwise.
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: Low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate. Nothing
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: else to really talk about there, however, like I said,
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: against the Mets, he actually has some issues.
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: One hundred and seven at bats.
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: This is without Jon Soto as well, by the way,
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: three twenty seven average nine to twenty oh ps twenty
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: three to six strike out walk ratio, So the ratio
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: is good, but the rest of those numbers are not good.
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: So the Mets actually have been able to hit Chrissale
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: and in fact, one of his actually I was gonna
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: say I thought one of his worst outings was against
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: the Mets. Well, he pitched against the Mets at home
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: on July fourth, and yeah, yeah, he wasn't good in
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: that outing. It wasn't one of his worst outings, but
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: he kind of struggled through that one.
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: So I don't know, he's not that good against the Mets. Dude,
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: Christian Scott is pitching for the Mets. He looks like
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: he's pretty good.
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: I mean I backed him a couple of times this
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: year on the show, a three point one to three
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: Ray one point.
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: Twenty six whip.
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: He's a bit worse at home, though three point six
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: homeie Ray is still not bad, but he is worse
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: at home.
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: His last start wasn't.
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: Very good against Milwaukee, and he did face the Braves
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: back on July third in that same series and didn't
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: do well in that start.
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: So I don't know if I'm.
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: Really gonna trust him. Here because those two starts, his
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: walk number wasn't really as good. We did get a
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: win with him against Philadelphia recently, but he might be
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: kind of falling out a form again. It looks like
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: when he kind of does that, he has a couple
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: of bad starts in a row typically, so I don't
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: really love that.
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: He does have a low hit rate on the season.
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is too high though, so the walks
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: of the one issue with him. His strike got raided
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: is high though, so he does have the ability to
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: strike guys out.
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: But he struggles against Atlanta.
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: But although actually his numbers against Atlanta aren't that bad,
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: he struggled against them last time, but he tell them
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: to a one fifty six average and six fourteen ohbs
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: over all the times they've seen him, thirty two at bats, fifteen.
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: To five strike out walk ratio.
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: So yeah, he wasn't good last time against Atlanta, but
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: he might have the ability to actually pitch alright here,
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: I think if we're gonna look at this game, you know,
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: an under still maybe a consideration here, but I think
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: Mets in the first five might make some sense here.
• 46:35
  Speaker 4: I know it should be a bounce back for the Braves.
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: Whatever.
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: You saw the matchup numbers there. The matchup numbers favor
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: Scott here, and if the total is low at seven
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: and a half, the oddsmakers are kind of telling you
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: runs are going to be at a premium here, and
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: that should help an underdog of a big size like
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: the Mets are here. Like, you know, you're not gonna
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: get value if you're playing Atlanta here with sale on
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: the mound, you know you have to pay for that
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: eighty nine percent of tickets ninety one percent of the
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: cash on it. I think really that just tells you
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: Atlanta is a public side there at minus one sixty
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: something here, the line's gone up a little bit on them.
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: You're gonna be able to get the Mets plus a
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: half run in the first five or whatever at a
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: pretty decent price, I would imagine. So I think that
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: might be the way I would play this game. The
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: money is still back in the under seven and a
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: half here, which the line's teetering on seven sixty percent
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: of tickets on the over ninety five percent of the
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: cash on the under.
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: So the market is saying under.
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: It looked like an under when I first saw the
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: pitching matchup here, But digging into the matchup numbers worries.
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: Me a bit about the under.
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: I think Atlanta does have a bullpen advantage, is why
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: I said Mets first five, and I think that might
• 47:38
  Speaker 4: be the better way to play that game is to
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: take the Mets in the first five, all right, plus
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: the half run Kansas City Minnesota.
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: This one's kind of interesting. These teams were both off yesterday.
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure in Minnesota's staying at home after beating
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: the A's. They had yesterday off. Kansas City also was
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: off yesterday. They're coming in from beating Detroit the last
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: two games, so Kansas City kind.
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: Of riding a high right now.
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: Maybe could be a little bit of a letdown for
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: them coming off of those big wins against Detroit, but
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: this is still a divisional series and maybe they will
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: still be.
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: Focused against Minnesota.
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: But then I look at the starting pitching and I
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: think the starting pitching does favor in Minnesota here. And
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: if you want Minnesota, you're gonna have to pay a
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: price for it, because the oddsmakers basically consider Kansas City
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: to be the worst team in the American League.
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: The bullpen's arrested, but I would not trust either. We're
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: looking at Minnesota twenty ninth, Kansas City dead last thirtieth.
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: You're looking at the two worst bullpen whips. And the
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: only array that's worse than these two teams is the A's.
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: So yeah, these are bad bullpens here. Minnesota has been
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: the better offense. They're twelfth, Kansas City eighteenth. Kansas City
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: doesn't hit as well on the road, and Kansas City
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: is going with Seth Lugo, who has had a bit
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: of regression here. As the advanced analytics guys predicted, He's
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: not terrible, but he's been very mediocre. A four point
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: three six ERA one point three to seven whip. He's
• 49:04
  Speaker 4: getting worse on the road five point four road ray.
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: Even though Kansas City's home stadium is more hitter friendly,
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: he still pitches better there now. Lugo has been good
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: in his last couple of outings though, so he's found
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: kind of a rhythm again. He's in better form right now.
• 49:19
  Speaker 4: Went deeper into his last two outings. It was against
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: San Diego and San Francisco, though, and those are not
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: good offenses, and those are both home games as well,
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: home starts for him.
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: His overall numbers here.
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is too high, so he's been too hittable.
• 49:31
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is not terrible. His strikeout rate is low,
• 49:35
  Speaker 4: but he doesn't strike guys out really anyway. Numbers against
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: Minnesota for him, Minnesota's had the upper hand against him
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: in ninety two at bats two eighty three average, seven
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: to ninety four oh ps, fifteen to six strikeout walk ratio,
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: So I would lean towards fading logo in this game.
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: However you want to play this game. Taj Bradley is
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: pitching for Minnesota. He's having a surprisingly good season three
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: point six ninet one point two to WHIP. He's been
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: good at home three point one to four HOMEIRA, and
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: if he fixes his walk issues, he'd be really good
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: because he's been a good strikeout pitcher.
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: He's really been good this month.
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: High strikeout rate, low hit rate, low e ray. Minnesota's
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: won a lot of his recent starts. They've won seven
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: of his last eight starts, so they're winning behind Bradley.
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: But his walk rate is still too high.
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: But he's definitely striking guys out, which is a good
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: sign as the Ray has been low recently.
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: His overall numbers here, he has been pretty difficult to hit.
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: Low hit rate.
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is too high, though, and that's again
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: his one issue is the walks. His strikeout rate is
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: also high, which is a good thing. Numbers against Kansas City.
• 50:43
  Speaker 4: I hate having to bring it up when these new
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: series start. Yeah, he's got good numbers here forty four
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: at bets one eighty two average, four to twenty two
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: oh ps. Really good numbers against Kansas City, nine to
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: two strike a walk ratio. So yeah, I think Minnesota
• 50:57
  Speaker 4: first five is the right way to play this. Just
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: focus on the starting pitching. Both pictures have been a
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: good form over the last couple of starts. But Bradley
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: he's got the He's got way more upside here. He's
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: the younger pitcher, the more talented pitcher, the better strike
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: up pitcher, and he's got the better matchup numbers. I
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: would not want to deal with either bullpen here. So yeah,
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: I would say first five Minnesota makes some sense. And
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: maybe there is a little bit of a letdown component
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: for Kansas City or Minnesota's public eighty five percent of tickets,
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: ninety percent of the cash on them, and you gotta
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: lay minus one sixty with them here. The line hasn't
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: really moved in the first five. You probably have to
• 51:32
  Speaker 4: lay even more than that, so it would be a
• 51:34
  Speaker 4: run line play. You're gonna have to lay a half
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: run with Minnesota in the first five.
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna do it.
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: Bradley has screwed me a couple of times because unfortunately
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: I tried to back him in, like in his one
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: bad stretch that he's had this season. I tried to
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: back him I think twice, which is pretty lame, but whatever,
• 51:51
  Speaker 4: And the money is also backing the over in this game,
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: the over nine or whatever. I mean, there are probably
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: more arguments for an over than an under here. I mean,
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: you have one starting pitcher who I don't really trust
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: here with Lugo, and then both bullpens are extremely untrustworthy,
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: so there are more indicators.
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: For an over than an under in that one.
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: All right, Yankees at White Sox. I'm not happy about
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: that game, yes Sex. The White Sox had a three
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: nothing or four nothing lead in that game. They were
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: able to get to Freed yesterday, and then the White
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: Sox bullpen totally lost the game, or actually I think
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: it was Schultz kind of imploding and then the bullpen
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: wasn't good behind him, so the Yankees wound up winning,
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: which I did say on my show. I thought the
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: Yankees were going to win that game, which they did,
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: although they didn't do it in the way that I
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: thought they would. A lot of bullpen usage in yesterday's game.
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: Freed must have exited the game earlier or something because
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: he wasn't pitching well. The Yankees used seven relief pitchers yesterday,
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: including their better relief pitchers, so their bullpen, even though
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: it's good, they're not in the best rest shape here.
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: The White Sox aren't either.
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: Though the White Sox use five guys, so I would
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: probably actually avoid both bullpens here, though the Yankees have
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: the number three bullpen in their number two in era.
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: White Socks are not really that bad either.
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: At eighteenth, but yeah, in this particular game, given the
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: lack of rest I don't really want to deal with
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: the bullpens here.
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: Yankees are ninth and hitting tied with Atlanta.
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: Like I said, the White Socks are not far behind
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: that at eleventh White Sox. I believe the White Socks
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: have been pretty good at home as well, and the
• 53:21
  Speaker 4: Yankees don't hit as well on the road, but this
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: starting pitching matchup on the surface, it looks like it
• 53:26
  Speaker 4: heavily favors the Yankees here with Garrett Cole on the mound,
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: he's pitching well three point nine two ERA, one point
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: one WHIP and I know he's like an old man
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: at this point, but he's still a pretty effective pitcher.
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: He's not as good on the road, though, four point
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: seven to three road ERA with a two to eighty
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: eight opponent batting everge. So his ERA is a run
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: and a half higher on the road, and his opponent
• 53:46
  Speaker 4: batting average is one hundred points higher on the road,
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: so he is definitely worse on the road.
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: He's in good form recently, though.
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: He's been really good in the month of July here
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: with a ridiculous thirty two to two strikeout walk ratio
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: this month. He's not walking anybody, although three of the
• 54:03
  Speaker 4: four starts this month were at home, and the worst
• 54:07
  Speaker 4: of them was debatably this one on the road against Tampa,
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: but he was still good in that start. However, the
• 54:13
  Speaker 4: Yanks have been losing his games though. The Yanks have
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: lost five of his last six games, but that wasn't
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: his fault. The Yankees have been giving him no run support,
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: and they might be able to give him some run
• 54:23
  Speaker 4: support in this game here.
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: His numbers overall are good.
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: He's got a pretty low hit rate, low walk rate,
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: high strike up rate, So yeah, Cole, he's still a
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: good pitcher at this point, and his numbers against the
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: White Sox are good, although granted some of these numbers
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: were in the past when Cole was a bit better
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: than he is now. Sixty one at bats won, sixty
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: four average, allowed four to seventy eight oh ps, twenty
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: one to four strike out walk ratio against him. I
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: don't really want to fully trust Cole on the road,
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: but this looks like it's a decent matchup for him here,
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: and he's going up against Anthony k who is not
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: that good for the White Sox. Here, he's at least
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: been serviceable, and he has at least actually been good
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: at home though four point two one one point three
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: to seven whip overall, but he's got a three point
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: oh six homey RA although his opponent batting average is
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: actually higher at home, but his ERA at home is
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: two and a half runs better at home, so the
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: home roads it's actually a favorite. K over Freed here,
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: and he actually has a better home the Ray than
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: Freed's Roady Rau. But I obviously I still think or sorry,
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: not Freed, Cole. Sorry, I still think Cole is the
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: better pitcher here, though, I mean, I don't think anybody's
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: gonna disagree with that.
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: And Kay, I mean his recent form.
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: Yeah, he's not aligning that many runs recently, but his
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: strike gout walk rates just pretty bad recently. Like he's
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: he's kind of getting away with putting guys on base.
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: He's not a good picture, dude. His hit rate is okay,
• 55:46
  Speaker 4: it's below one per inning at least, his walk rate
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: is kind of high. His strike gout rate is fairly low.
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: I don't think there's a whole lot to like about
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: k here. Cole obviously is the way better like command
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: pitcher here. Kay against the Yank has been okay in
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: twenty at bats two fifty average, seven to sixty eight
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: ops allowed two to one strike out walk ratiom.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: I'd still have to lean to the Yankees here.
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: I'm assuming they're gonna be public, though you probably have
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: to pay way too much of a price for them.
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: Yet pretty much they're minus one thirty something on the road.
• 56:17
  Speaker 4: The line has actually dropped for minus one forty four,
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: So there is reverse line movement here, which means that
• 56:23
  Speaker 4: the line is moving against where the public ticket percentages.
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: So that tells you the actual money is actually playing
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: the White Sox here seventy eight percent of tickets and
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: seventy seven percent of the cash on the Yankees. With
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: the line dropping towards the White Sox here, I can't
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: do it, though, I know the home road splits at
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: least are an argument for the White Sox here, And
• 56:42
  Speaker 4: if you're gonna play the White Sox, I would say
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: play them in the first five innings.
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: Still, I would still lean Yankees on the money line.
• 56:50
  Speaker 4: Maybe make it a first five as well, just because
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: everybody came out of the bullpen yesterday for them. I
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: guess you could isolate the starting pitching here where it
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: should be an edge for the Yankees and Cole against
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: k So maybe laying the half run with the Yankees
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: in the first five or something makes some sense there.
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: But given that market read, it's not something I'm interested
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: in so far.
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think my second strongest lean out of
• 57:15
  Speaker 4: all the games I've given you so far is probably
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: the Minnesota Twins first five lean.
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: That I gave out. I really don't love much.
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: Else that I've talked about today, So yeah, man, and
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: I do like Game two Cleveland Indians Game two with
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: Williams on the Mount. I like that one as well.
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: That one's one of the stronger opinions I have. But
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: you do have to pay a price for that one,
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: all right. Cubs and Saint Louis Cubs Cardinals on TBS.
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: It's like the old days Man Sosa Maguire home run race,
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: except not really, because Saint Louis doesn't have They do
• 57:48
  Speaker 4: have Jordan Walker, but Saint Louis does not have an
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: offense like that. The Cubs offense has been good, though
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis did lose seven to three yesterday. Of the Cubs.
• 57:56
  Speaker 4: The Cubs are the better team here. But Saint Louis
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: actually saved their bullpen, at least according to rodal Wire,
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: than it used anybody that's listed as being in their
• 58:05
  Speaker 4: relief staff right now. So they must have used maybe
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: they use a starter in relief or they just let
• 58:10
  Speaker 4: whoever their starter was just a go. I don't know
• 58:13
  Speaker 4: what they did, yes say, but the Cubs use four
• 58:15
  Speaker 4: guys out of the bullpen, Cubs generally have the better
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: bullpen here are the ranked fourteenth. They got their ear
• 58:21
  Speaker 4: array back below four. Cardinals are twenty second. But the
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: Cardinals have more rest here, so that's gonna close the
• 58:28
  Speaker 4: gap between these two bullpens a bit here. So I
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: don't really think there's much of an advantage for the
• 58:33
  Speaker 4: Cubs out of the bullpen in this set up. Here,
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: Cubs have an offensive atage. They're ranked fourth, as I
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: was already alluding to Saint Louis's twenty fifth, so the
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: Cubs have the better offense here, Cubs. On the surface,
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: it looks like the Cubs have a pitching disadvantage here.
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: With Colin Ray on the mound, he's not that good
• 58:50
  Speaker 4: A four point eighty five Ray, one point four to whip.
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: He's been pretty bad on the road, six point four
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: or five Roady Ray giving up an opponent batting average
• 58:58
  Speaker 4: of close to three hundred on the road.
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's not good obviously. Ray.
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: I mean he's been somewhat okay recently. I mean he's
• 59:07
  Speaker 4: kind of a serviceable pitcher, like he's not gonna really
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: put you out of too many games. Recently, he's been
• 59:14
  Speaker 4: that's been what he's been doing. He's been keeping them
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: in games. But you look at his overall numbers, I
• 59:18
  Speaker 4: don't know. His hit rate is two highs, walk rate
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: is okay, strake got rate is low. I don't really
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: trust Ray except he draws a good match up here
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: because this is a pitcher friendly park in Saint Louis.
• 59:30
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis's offense isn't that good, and Ray has had
• 59:33
  Speaker 4: success against them in his career. In fifty nine at
• 59:35
  Speaker 4: bats one nineteen average that's pretty good. Three point fifty
• 59:38
  Speaker 4: three oh ps seventeen to six strikeout walk ratio. That
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: ratio is not excellent, but the rest of these numbers
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: that he has here, he's been pretty good against Saint Louis.
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: He is going up against Michael McGreevy, who does have
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: good numbers three point oh seventy RA one point one
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: to three whip. McGreevy has been better at home two
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: point three homey RA.
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: He's in d right now. He's continuing to pitch well.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 4: He wasn't great last time out against Arizona, but had
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: to face them twice in a row. Wasn't really the
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 4: easiest assignment for him. The advanced analytics guys keeps saying
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 4: mcgreevy's gonna like fall off because he's a contact pitcher.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 4: He has a pretty low hit rate here though, as
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: walk rate is low. He doesn't walk guys, but he
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: doesn't strike guys out. Like I said, he pitches to contact,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 4: gets a lot of ground ball contact, though, And I mean,
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 4: if he's able to sustain this throughout more than half
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 4: the season, I don't really think it's.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: Like a total mirage, you know what I mean. I
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: mean it could be.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: I mean some pitchers have done that because it's still over,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: you know whatever, fifteen starts or whatever, but still or
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: actually in his case is twenty.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: We're deeper into the season than I thought.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 4: But all that being said, even though yeah, I think
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: McGreevy is a decent pitcher, the Cubs have hit him
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: pretty well in fifty five at bats three twenty seven average,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 4: eight eighty two OPS allowed five to four strike out
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: walk ratio, So the matchup numbers point towards backing the
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: Cubs in this one. With Ray on the mound, even
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 4: though on the surface doesn't look like you should be
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: doing that, I guess that probably would be my lean here.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 4: Cubs that amount minus one fourteen or so the line
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: hasn't really moved, although the public is coming in on
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 4: the Cubs eighty four percent of tickets ninety five percent
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 4: of the cash on them, but that is a significant
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 4: cash percentage difference there, so it kind of makes it
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 4: look like it's public and professionals are all on the
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: Cubs here. So if the books lose that one, if
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 4: the Cubs win, the books are going to lose money
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 4: on that game, which I mean it sometimes happens. The
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 4: books don't win money on every game, especially like on
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: the specifically in the side market, but they win more
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 4: often than they don't obviously, which is how they stay
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: in operation and make money. But yes, probably just Cubs
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: money line makes the most sense to me, and that
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 4: on Saint Louis is listed is undecided though, so keep
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: that in mind that maybe it won't be maggrieving and
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 4: if they change pitching, maybe you do have to re
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: handicap that one. So yeah, it's not really a game
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: I want to do anything with, though I don't really
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: want to lay a favorite price with the Cubs on
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: the road either, And you just have to worry a
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: little bit about bullpen usage, but in this case, I
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: still need The Cubs are probably the better bullpen, so
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 4: I'd probably keep them in the equation.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: All right, I'm gonna be right back.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: I'll talk about the rest of these games, and I'm
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 4: gonna give up one w NBA play.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: Give me a second. Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: We're on OWN seven. Run over the last two days
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 3: after tonight it was just complete bullshit.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 4: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 4: Sunday one and five.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what to tell you above that.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: never seen anything like this.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: Man, with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 4: good day at all.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: OWN four, I have not had a good season.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: Man, with bookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: slump continues.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 3: I've reached into peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: browins hat man, I don't know what is going on
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: with the Bruins. Arch epe is that what it is?
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day it
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: is anymore, But I don't even know what day it
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: is anymore. Man's back with you after the worst day
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 3: that I could.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 4: Possibly have, back with you, as I always am until
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 4: I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 4: it did not go well for me. Own five the
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 4: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: doing this.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: To the slump is, the slump discontinues, the slump continues.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: point other than potentially.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: Ends it all all right.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 4: Next game is ESPN Unlimited Houston, and to him, we
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: got Anaheim first five correct yesterday and the bullpen imploded
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 4: and Houston won the game.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: Six to four.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 4: But our play on the show won with the first five,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 4: so again makes me feel like a genius getting that
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 4: one right, specifically in the first five. Will it be
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 4: a bounce back here?
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: It could be.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 4: I mean that was technically a return home spot for
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 4: Anaheim yesterday that I didn't think it was that bad
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 4: of a spot for them because they had only been
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: in San Francisco, so they were in they were staying
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 4: on the Pacific coast, which I thought would be an
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 4: advantage for them, and they fell apart late though, so Houston,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 4: having to travel out west, didn't tire out late in
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 4: that game. This game, on the surface, my first reaction
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: of the starting pitching matchup here was first five under, which,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 4: of course that's like always in my reaction when I
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 4: see Debt mers and he screwed me a couple of
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 4: times trying to take him first five under. Now, Anaheim's
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 4: bullpen is bad.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: They were bad.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: Yesterday, these four guys out of the bullpen. I would
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 4: not trust their bullpen in this game, Houston, but they
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 4: used Javier who's a spot starter, so they didn't really
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 4: use their better relievers for the most part, except they
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 4: did use their closer.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: I guess hater. I think it is their closer.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 4: He's a hater man. But no, I think Houston has
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 4: the bullpen advantage here.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 3: They're nineteenth. They're better than they were at.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: The beginning of the season at least, Angels twenty first,
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: but Houston probably has the bullpen edge here. Houston also
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: probably has the offensive edge here.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: They're fourteenth.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 4: The Angels not good at home, and they're twenty fourth overall,
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 4: so not good, and the Angels are gonna have a
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 4: tougher time I think hitting in this game because they
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: have to go up against Peter Lambert, who is having
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 4: his best season by far. Definitely a good change of
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 4: scenery for him going to a different team here. Three
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 4: point h three RA, one point one two whip good
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 4: stuff here. He's been good on the road two point
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 4: seven to eight roady RA, holding opponents to basically a
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 4: two hundred batting average across the board.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: All that's good.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 4: He's been good in the month of July with a
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 4: one point five two ERA along two or fewer runs
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 4: across all four in all four starts.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: I should say, going six innings.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 4: In each of his last three. Yeah, he's pitching well
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 4: right now. Houston's won three of his last four starts,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 4: the one five of his last seven or whatever.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: That is, Yeah, pretty good.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate here, his walk rate
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 4: is good enough, I would say, and his strikeout rate
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: is okay as well.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 4: Lambert's a pretty decent pitcher here, and he's been fairly
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 4: good against Anaheim. When he's facing him in twenty nine
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 4: at bats, he sell him to a very low one
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 4: seventy two average. The power hitting has gotten to him
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: a little bit. They have three home runs off him,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 4: so they have a seven h nine OPS, but that
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 4: could be a little bit fluky. Ten strikeouts, two walks,
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 4: So yeah, Lambert, I mean, I think he should match
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 4: up pretty well here, And as I said, the Angels
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 4: are going with Reed Detmers here, who I still think
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: is a good pitcher four point oh five RRA, but
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: his whip at one point one indicates that his ERA
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 4: should be lower than it is. He's been I would
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 4: say slightly better at home four point zero nine era,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: very similar to what his era is on the road,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 4: but his opponent of batting average is a low two
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 4: to h three at home, so he's good at home.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: He doesn't allow many hits, and he looks like he's
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 4: back in for him after he screwed me with a
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 4: couple of bad starts in a row where I tried
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: to go under in the first five innings with a
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: couple of his starts. Then I think I lay it
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 4: off him, and he pitched really well in his last
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: two outings against Detroit and Saint Louis, so he seems
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 4: like he's kind of back in form.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: Here. Last two starts have been quite good. His hit
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: rate is low.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: Like I said, he allows a very low opponent batting average.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 4: He's gone a lot of innings so far. His walk
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: rate is not too high, and his strikeout rate is
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 4: pretty high as well, so his numbers across the border good.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: He's got good strikeout stuff. I guess one concern with
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: debtmers might be that he is still a bit young,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: and you got to watch his innings count. Like I say,
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 4: with these young guys, once they get up to an
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: innings count that they have not seen before.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 3: That could be a little bit of an issue.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: But he did throw one hundred almost hundred and fifty
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: innings back in twenty twenty three, so he's not totally
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: unused to that.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: Although it's been a while since he's done it.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 4: So at some point maybe he's gonna run out of
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 4: steam a little bit. But I don't think it's gonna
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 4: happen yet. He's still at where's he at here. He's
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: at one hundred and twenty innings right now, I believe
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: is what that is against Houston, though his numbers are
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 4: pretty mediocre here in one hundred and eleven at bats
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 4: to seventy average, seven point thirty two ops twenty seven
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 4: to ten at strikeout walk ratio. So I'd like to
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 4: see his numbers be a little bit better than that
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: against Houston to really want to do this year. Maybe
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 4: I'm being too picky today, and of course that means
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 4: the one play I'm gonna give out is going to
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 4: be wrong. I mean, nothing's guaranteed here.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 4: In this game, you're trying to go like fifty four
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 4: fifty five percent, you know what I mean, to overcome
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 4: the vague. So you're gonna take a lot of losses.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: But this game, I would still play first five under.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 4: I think would probably still be the best approach in
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 4: this game. I'd avoid the bullpens, especially Anaheims, but eighty
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 4: three percent to take his ninety percent of the cash
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 4: on the I think the over is just probably public here.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: These are not name pitchers, so I think the under
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: in the first five makes some sense. And of course
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 4: with it not being on my card, you know that
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 4: means it's actually gonna hit det Murselle will continue to
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 4: pitch well. As long as I don't have a play
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 4: on him. He pitched as well, You're probably gonna be
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 4: looking at a four and a half in that one,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 4: I would guess, so that's a pretty decent number there.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 3: The money's also indicating towards Anaheim.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 4: I don't think I would agree with that eighty three
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 4: percent to take a seventy two percent of the cash
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 4: on Houston's the money coming in towards Anaheim, Yeah, I
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 4: don't see it.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think Houston is the better team probably
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 3: across the board.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 4: I think you could give him a starting pitching edge
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: here based on the matchup numbers we saw. I think
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 4: they have a bullpen advantage and a hitting advantage, and
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 4: you're only paying.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 3: About minus one ten. It's like a pick them price.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 4: So I would lean Houston, but I think first five
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 4: under makes the most sense, and obviously the market read
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 4: is against Houston. There my bust in Red Sox at
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 4: the A's yesterday's game. The Red Sox could not hit
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: Jack Perkins like basically at all, which I said, Perkins
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 4: is better than people think he is totally was pretty
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: good in the game as well, although I think he
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 4: gave up two home runs. But other than that, the
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: A's didn't really do I mean, it's a bandbox stadium,
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 4: you know what. I mean, it's a really small stadium,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 4: so like fly balls that wouldn't be home runs anywhere
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 4: else wound up going out of the yard there, but
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 4: totally still pitched pretty well. Red Sox hung around, and
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 4: they got a grand Slam from Rafaela like right after
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: Perkins got taken out of the game after I think
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 4: he put a couple of those guys on and that
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 4: was enough for the Red Sox bullpen to come in
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 4: and finish the job, and they won four to two
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 4: yesterday with all four runs coming on that grand slam.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: The A's have lost.
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 4: Three in a row now, but remember that was a
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 4: return home spot for the A's, though Red Sox were
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 4: having to travel out to the Pacific Coast as well,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: but the spot was a little bit better for the
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 4: Red Sox because it was still a start of a
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: road trip versus a road trip return. So I think
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: the advantage stilled still was with the Red Sox a
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 4: little bit yesterday. But a lot of times the team
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 4: that loses that game and the return home spot bounces
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: back and they play better in the next game. And
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 4: maybe the A's will do that here. Certainly, I'm not
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 4: gonna have my money on it or anything like that,
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 4: and there's no way out back the A's bullpen. The
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 4: Red Sox have a huge bullpen advantage in this matchup.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: The A's used four guys out of the bullpen. The
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 4: Red Sox did use Chapman yesterday. They actually used four
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: guys as well, but we'll see.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: What they did.
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox do a decent job staggering their bullpen
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: arms though, and the Red Sox, of course, they're number
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: one in bullpen now in both WHIP and ERA, and
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: the A's are dead last in ERA, so debatably, this
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 4: is the best bullpen.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: Versus the worst. The A's are fifteenth in offense.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox are twentieth, tie with Arizona and Philly,
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 4: so the A's do have a somewhat better offense here,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 4: but dealing with some injuries long the Layers is out
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 4: now though. Speaking of injuries, the Red Sox, they just
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 4: traded for Curtis Mean and what happens to him Game
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 4: one with the Red Sox. He was in the lineup,
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 4: he got hit by pitt on his hand and he
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 4: I don't know if it's a break or what it is,
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: but he's already injured because he got hit by a
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: pitch in the hand. It's so ridiculous, dude, completely ridiculous. Anyway,
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 4: looking at this match up here, though, Red Sox is
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 4: going with Jake Bennett.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 3: Bennett he's been good, man.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 4: I mean, the Red Sox basically chose to keep him
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 4: instead of Connolly early.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: And maybe Bennett is the better of the two.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox like these giant left handers, and Bennett
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 4: is the bigger of the two pitchers, although he's not
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: really a strike up pitcher, but he's been good. Two
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 4: point five eighty ra point nine to four whip is
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 4: really good. He's been better on the road to two
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 4: point one roadyral though of course this is not like
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 4: most road stadiums. This is this horrible Sacramento stadium. Here,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: Ken Bennett actually pitched well here.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: I think he can. I mean, if you look at
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 3: what's he's been really good recently.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox have won five starts in a row
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 4: of his he's allowed two or fewer runs, and all
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 4: but one of them he's allowed three or fewer in
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: all of them. Although his last start was that one
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 4: where he allowed three against Baltimore. It was a little
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 4: bit shaky but his command's been really good. He's had
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 4: a very very low walk rate here. He's got a
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 4: low hit rate as well. His strike out rate is low,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: so he doesn't really strike guys out. But what do
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 4: you want to know in this stadium is how heavy
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 4: of a fly ball pitcher is seen. He's not very heavy.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 4: He induces a lot of ground balls, so that style
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: of pitching should be okay for the stadium. So he
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 4: should at least avoid getting like totally destroyed in this game.
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 4: And one other good sign is he pitched in a
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 4: similar stadium to this, at least when he pitched in Colorado,
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: which I know Colorado is not like a short like
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 4: they don't have a short outfield there, but they have
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 4: high elevations so balls just sail out of that park.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: And he had a six inning shutout in that game
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: against Colorado, So that's a decent sign. They should be
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 4: able to handle a hit or friendly ballpark like this.
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 4: And Bennett, of course has never been seen before by
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 4: the AS, so I don't really expect Bennett to pitch
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 4: poorly here. And yesterday I think I did call out
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 4: that I thought yesterday's game might be lower scoring than
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: people expected. And I was correct about that yesterday. So
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: just keeping that in mind, the A's are going with
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: Gauge Jump in this game.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: Jump.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: I think he's good. I think he's talented. I think
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 4: he's better than his numbers look. So we have a
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 4: battle of young lefties here, Jump though four point four
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: to two ERA one point four to two whip. But
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 4: a lot of that is because he's struggling to pitch
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 4: here in the stadium six point three to five home array.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 3: But that's real, that's a problem.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 4: Like it looks like Bennett has a better ability to
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 4: pitch in these home Run could do some ballparks than
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 4: Jump us because Jump is more of a fly ball pitcher.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 4: Jump is also allowed a very high three twenty eight
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 4: upon a batting average at home, so he's definitely.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: Been worse at home.
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 4: He's clearly in the worst form of these pitchers. The
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 4: A's have lost six starts in a row of his
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: and he's allowed five or more runs in three of those,
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 4: in three of his last five, so he's fallen out
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 4: of form. He's not pitching well here, and it's even
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 4: worse than that in his last two starts. I know
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 4: some of this was the horrible A's bullpen getting involved.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 4: But the last two times he's taken the mound, the
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 4: A's have allowed fifteen or more runs in both of them.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 3: So yeah, that's not good.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 4: Although do I think the Red Sox are gonna score
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 4: fifteen or more here? No, obviously I don't. Can they
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 4: hit Jump?
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 3: They can?
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's got a hit rate that's kind of
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: high at this point. He's making me look bad man
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 4: for saying that he was good early in the season.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: But we got some winners backing him early in the season,
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 4: So there you go. I jumped. I jumped off the
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 4: jump train at the right time. Jump does have kind
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: of a high walk rate at this point. His strikeout
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 4: rate is still good though, so he does have the
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 4: ability to strike guys out. And like I said, he
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 4: is a fly ball pitcher, so he's more susceptible to
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 4: the home run than Bennett is here.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: Red Sox Curtis Mead has seen.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: It because he was in the National League and Mead
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 4: is won for two, often with a two run double
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 4: and a strike up. But Mead's probably not gonna be
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 4: in the lineup tonight, and he's the one guy he'd
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 4: probably want in the lineup to because Mead, he crushes
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 4: left handers. Dude, he's the only guy that has experienced
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 4: against Jump, So I don't know. I don't know what
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 4: his status is if like, he'd be the one guy
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: you want in the lineup tonight if you're the Red
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 4: Sox against Jump, but whatever.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 3: I don't have a great readin on the scam.
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 4: And I think I probably would slightly lean towards the
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 4: Red Sox here, but the money is definitely not agreeing
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 4: with it. The Red Sox are minus one fifty or so,
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 4: the line hasn't really moved, ninety four percent of tickets
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 4: eighty seven percent of the cash on them, so they're
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 4: extremely public without hot they've been. The Red Sox already
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 4: have clinched the best record in Major League Baseball in July.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 4: They're eighteen and three now, I think in the month
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 4: of July, and no team is close enough to overcome
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 4: them in the remaining days here. But I think the
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 4: Red Sox have the better starting pitcher here, plus the
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 4: better bullpen. Uh. The A's obviously have a better offense,
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 4: but I like pitching over offense, so it's interesting, and
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 4: the money's also backing the under as well. So I
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 4: think probably my leans in this game would be I
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 4: guess Red Sox full game, but you might have to
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: make like a minus one run line. I'm really not interested.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: I'm not interested in going with the public where it
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 4: looks like there's a fade of the public going on
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 4: here too, I'm not interested in that. It is interesting
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 4: the money's back in the under here. The totals nine
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 4: and a half of the full game, which similar to yesterday.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 4: The total was around the same yesterday, and like I said, yesterday,
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 4: that's a low total for an A's game, so the
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers kind of think this won't be as high scoring.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 4: I think the under makes some sense if you keep
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 4: it to the first five. You got two young pitchers
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: that are talented that both might be able to keep
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 4: the opposing offenses a bit off the board here, so
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 4: I could see the argument for the first five under.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 4: Obviously I would not go full game whether you cannot
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 4: back the A's bullpens. So that's what I'll say about that.
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox are your American League team just because
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 3: of their mine. I mean there are reasons for it.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 4: I mean the Red Sox they've always kind of been
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 4: the I mean just kind of the Boston vibes that
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: these teams are like the blue collar, like underdog type
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 4: of team. That's always what the Red Sox have been
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 4: against the Yankees, at least for the eighty six years
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 4: that the Red Sox couldn't win anything. The Red Sox
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 4: were the team that was slathering pine tar all over
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: their helmets and growing huge beards and being the idiots
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: right in two thousand and four, coined by Kevin Malar,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: you know, and the Yankees of the uptight We don't
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 4: allow facial hair pin stripes. You have to have clean jerseys.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 4: You have to be professional about this. I'm like, no,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 4: this is fucking baseball, dude. You want to be like
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 4: be like Wade Bogs former Red Sox player, swill beer,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: you know, chug seventy beers on a cross country flight
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 4: and then that was going to Oakland, by the way,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 4: when the A's were in Oakland, Land in Oakland and
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 4: then go three for five with two RBIs or whatever.
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 4: That that's what Boggs did while still drunk from the flight.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: You know, stuff like that.
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 4: You do that, you chew tobacco, eat fried chicken, you
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 4: know whatever, that's what you gotta do, man.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 3: So, yeah, your wife went to be U.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 4: My parents went to be you and my sister. Also,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 4: I'm the I'm the black sheep. I'm the only one
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 4: in my immediate family who didn't go to Bee. Yeah,
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 4: Sonny in Philadelphia with Wade Bogs making an appearance on
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 4: that episode, Yes, yeah, I like that episode. Still a
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 4: good show, by the way, Sonny in Philadelphia. Some of
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 4: the new episodes are still pretty hilarious. So it hasn't
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 4: really that show hasn't really taken a complete nose dive,
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 4: all right, Colorado Speaking of them at San Diego, I
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 4: think both teams are off yesterday. I believe San Diego
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 4: is returning home from a road trip, a long road
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 4: trip where they went to Kansas City, Atlanta, Miami. So
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 4: they're gonna have to travel all the way back to
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 4: the Pacific coast. They're gonna have to adjust three time
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 4: zones later, play a late game here after SWI keeping
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 4: Miami and play against this Colorado team that's in the
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 4: pits here, last place in the NL West. Negative spot
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 4: for San Diego. Not a good spot, you know.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 3: I like to fade.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 4: Teams are turning on from road trips playing against a
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 4: team they might overlook. Having to readjust the specific time
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: zone not gonna be great. Should be a bit easier
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 4: for Colorado. They're coming in from the Central time zone
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 4: though after losing to Milwaukee, so still they are having
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 4: to travel across multiple time zones here, which still not
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 4: really that easy to do. But yeah, I think it's
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 4: a bigger negative for San Diego. Colorado is at least
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 4: in the middle of a road trip. Problem is if
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 4: you want to back Colorado, do you really want to
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 4: back Michael Lorenzen to try to get you a win here?
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 4: I know, I mean sometimes in baseball you do want
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 4: to back these really ugly pitchers a lot. I don't
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 4: really do that. It's not really my style. San Diego
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 4: obviously has the better bullpen here. They're ranked eleventh. Colorado
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 4: not good at twenty seventh with an ERA above five.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 4: San Diego is the worst offense though they're twenty seventh.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 4: They've really struggled offensively and at home. They definitely have
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 4: Colorado's fifth in offense. But both offenses might take take
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 4: a hit here. They might drop a little bit because
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 4: this is a pitcher friendly ballpark here. Maybe Lorenzen will
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 4: pitch a little bit better here, but he's been overall
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 4: pretty bad six point five to three ray, one point
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 4: seven to nine whip, really really bad, although he is
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 4: definitely worse in course field, though his numbers are at
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 4: least better on the road five point oh four roadra
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 4: which is still not good though, and he wasn't good
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 4: in his last outing against Washington.
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 3: Though it was at home.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 4: He actually was okay a couple in the couple starts
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 4: leading into that start, so he was pitching alright. I
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 4: guess that's kind of the best you could say about him.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 4: He has a really high hit rate. Still, his walk
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 4: rate is okay, he doesn't really walk guys that much,
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 4: but actually even that's not really that great. And then
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 4: his strike out rate is low, so he's pretty hittable
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 4: and he doesn't strike out a lot of guys.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 3: That's not good. Obviously.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 4: Maybe this will be a better matchup for him because
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 4: it's in a pitcher frond the park against a pretty
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 4: weak offense. But San Diego has hit him in the
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 4: past sixty nine at bats three nineteen average, eight ninety
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 4: five oh ps, eleven to six strikeout walk ratio. Yeah,
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 4: even though the situation kind of indicates you want to
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 4: fade San Diego here.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 3: I can't back Lorenz and he's going.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 4: Up against San Diego's best pitcher, Michael King, which maybe
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 4: doesn't say that much about their starting pitching rotation. But
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 4: he is pretty good three point two four ERA, one
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 4: point one seven whip. He's a little bit better at
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 4: home three point one to one home ERA. His walks
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 4: have been an issue recently, though he's pitched well.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 3: He's not allowed many.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 4: Runs in his recent starts, and his team just hasn't
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: backed him with run support for the most part, although
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 4: actually they kind of have actually, but the bullpen, believe
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 4: it or not, has actually kind of thrown away some
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: of his good starts here. But it hasn't really been
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 4: his fault except his walk rate has.
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 3: Been a little bit iffy recently.
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 4: But you look at his numbers overall, his hit rates
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 4: low and his walk grade is actually a little bit high,
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 4: which isn't really that great.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 3: His strike up rate is mediocre. He's not a huge
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 3: strike up pitcher.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: King against Colorado, he's held them in check in twenty
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: nine at bats one thirty eight average, three ninety one
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 4: ohps six to two strikeout walk ratio. I can't do
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 4: anything with this game. And again it's a situation where
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 4: I can't come in and back San Diego, and especially
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 4: I can't do it at the price that you have
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 4: to lay here. Whatever they're at, they're at where are
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 4: we looking here? They're minus one eighty nine. Actually they're
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 4: up to minus two hundred at some spots they open
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 4: at minus one eighty nine.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not willing to do that.
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 4: You have to lay a run line with San Diego
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 4: where they might not bad in the ninth inning, and
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 4: they're not a good offense, and it's a picture friendly
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 4: ballpark totals fairly low at eight. Yeah, I'm not going
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 4: to be doing that. I don't really want to back
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 4: lorenz In either, I mean situationally, I mean, I guess
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 4: San Diego is definitely a public side. Eighty six percent
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 4: of tickets, eighty six percent of the cash. I mean,
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 4: I guess if you really have to look at the
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 4: side here, I mean, I guess you could take Colorado
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 4: in the first five or something. There's no way that
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 4: I would want to deal with their bullpen. But they
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 4: don't even have an advantage, and the starting pitching matchups,
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 4: So like, why would I want to do that at all?
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 4: I mean, I know some of the professionals did, like
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 4: Miami yesterday despite being at a pitching disadvantage, and they
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 4: were correct in that game. But you know, I just
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: stayed off of it because it's too many conflicting factors.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 4: The money is backing the over in this game as well.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 4: I mean I would say that maybe what you could
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 4: do is you could play San Diego to go over
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 4: their team total, but I don't love that because their
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 4: office just isn't really that good and we're turning home
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 4: from a road trip a lot of times, could throw
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 4: off the offensive timing, especially across time zones.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 3: I don't really want to do that either. I mean,
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 3: if you want to, I mean, I.
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 4: Guess you could go Colorado under their team total, but
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 4: you're really kind of pushing it there, like they're really
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 4: gonna have to probably not score more than like two
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 4: maybe three runs max here.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 3: I don't like it. That's a game.
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 4: I just don't really see a great way of playing
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 4: that game. Milwaukee at San Francisco. San Francisco won yesterday
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 4: three to nothing. Milwaukee is the better team, so maybe
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee's gonna be in a bounced back spot here after
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 4: getting shut out by an inferior San Francisco team.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 3: Here, I think.
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee has the edge across the board. In this game,
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 4: San Francisco used three relief pitchers, yes to name. Milwaukee
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: only used one and it wasn't any of their better relievers.
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 4: So Milwaukee definitely has a bullpen advantage here. They're one
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 4: of the best bullpens there. Ain't tenth, but they're fourth
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 4: in era, actually third in era. Now they're ahead of
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 4: the Braves. Now, they're a good bullpen. San Francisco is not.
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 4: They're twenty third, So yeah, Milwaukee has a bullpen advantage here.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee is also the better offense, tied in six with
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay. San Francisco's fifteenth tied with the A's, But
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 4: I don't think they're as good as the A's. I
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 4: don't really think they're that good. And I think Milwaukee
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 4: has the better starting pitcher as well. With Logan Henderson
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 4: on them. We backed him on the show a couple
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 4: times this year. He's good three point zero five Vra
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 4: point nine to four whip really good.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 3: He is a bit worse on the road.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 4: Three point nine to three Roadyerra, but still allowing a
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 4: very low two seventeen opponent batting average on the road.
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 4: It's a small sample size, but Henderson, I mean, he
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: looked good when he pitched last year. He came up
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 4: to the majors last year. He was very effective last year.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 4: He's been as good this year as well. So yeah,
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 4: he's a good pitcher dude. As far as I could tell,
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 4: they're kind of capping him though, at about five innings.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 3: And each of his starts because they don't want to
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 3: overwork him.
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 4: But Milwaukee's won his last six starts, so they're winning
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 4: behind him for sure. He's got a low hit rate,
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 4: very low walk rate. His strike got rate is high
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 4: as well. He's a good pitcher man, and he's currently
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 4: a good form as well.
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 3: I believe we won on the under.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 4: In the last game that he pitched, even though Scott
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 4: wasn't really that good in that game, Henderson definitely had
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 4: goddess there and that one.
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 3: And Henderson is unfamiliar to.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: San Francisco and this is a pitcher friendly ballpark, so
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 4: he's got extra advantage this year against San Francisco, so
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 4: I think he should pitch well in this one. The
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 4: hitters are gonna have to try to figure him out.
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 4: San Francisco is going with the landing route here. He's
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 4: a decent pitcher, a three point nine to three r
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 4: one point two to four WHIP, three point eight homiere
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 4: with a below two hundred opponent of batting average at home.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 4: So he's been good at home and he's in good
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 4: form again right now. He's pitched pretty well in his
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 4: three starts this month. He's only had three total runs
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 4: in twenty one innings for a one point two to
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 4: ninety array. This month, San Francisco won two of the
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 4: three games, only one of them was at home. Nine
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 4: hits all out over that span, five walks and fourteen
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 4: strike outs. His strike out rate kind of went down here,
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 4: but he's kind of got his walk rate a little
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 4: bit in check, and his walk rate has been the
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 4: main issue with him.
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 3: Like he's not easy to hit. He's got a low
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 3: hit rate.
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 4: His strike out rate is reasonably high even though he
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 4: doesn't really throw that hard. He gets guys to strike
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 4: out on these like crazy breaking pitches that he throws.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 4: He's got a high high walk rate though, so he
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: has some some difficulty with his command still, which is
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 4: his one main issue against the Brewers.
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 3: He has not been good though.
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 4: In forty seven at bats two ninety eight to average
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 4: eight to thirty five ops eleven eleven strike out walk ratio.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 4: That's really not good. So I think he's at a
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 4: disadvantage here. I like Milwaukee in this game. The problem
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 4: is you gotta lay a price with it like this is.
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 4: This was on my short list for sure. So my
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 4: short list was Cleveland in game two full game money line.
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 4: What was the other one, Oh, Minnesota first five run line,
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 4: I guess was on there, and then this one definitely
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 4: was there as well, which would be Milwaukee in the
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 4: full game in some capacity here they moved up from
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 4: minus one forty four to a minus one fifty or
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: so here eighty five percent of tickets, ninety percent of
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 4: the cash on their public side. But I think it's
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 4: a bounce back spot. I think Milwaukee has the edge
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 4: everywhere in this game. So I would play Milwaukee if
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 4: I was gonna play this. But you're gonna be laying
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 4: probably like a minus one run line on this with
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 4: the way this price is going, and it's a low
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 4: total at seven and a half, So I don't love
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 4: laying a pro that's that high with a game it's
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: expected to be kind of low scoring with the road team,
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 4: even though I think everything kind of lines up for
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee here, though I'm very tempted to do it. And then,
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 4: I mean, the other way you could look at this
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 4: is maybe to go Milwaukee over their team total. But
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 4: if you do that, it's supposed to be a low
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 4: scoring game. For one thing, the money's coming in on
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 4: the under, and you're taking away one of your biggest
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 4: advantages you have here, which is Henderson. So I don't
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 4: really love that idea either. Seventy one percent of tickets
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 4: are on the over, fifty two percent of the cash
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 4: on the under, so the money's playing the under here
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 4: at seven and a half, the line is flipped to
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 4: seven and a half juice to the under, so there
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 4: is money coming in on the under. And I don't
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 4: disagree with the under mine. I think generally both pitchers
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 4: are good here. I mean maybe a first five or something,
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 4: but you're really pushing it with the first five at
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 4: like three and a half.
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't know.
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 4: I still think the better way to play that game
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 4: is just playing Milwaukee it's just.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 3: I don't really love the price there.
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 4: So I know I'm being very, very picky today, but
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 4: that's just the way that it is. And then we
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 4: have Seattle at the Dodgers in the late late game.
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 3: Here. These teams were both off yesterday.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 4: The Dodgers are returning home from a long road trip,
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 4: but they were in New York Philly and New York
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 4: played both New York teams and now they're returning across
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 4: country to play a late game. And you know, I
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 4: talk about this not a good spot. They're returning home
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 4: from the road, which is just a bad spot on
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 4: its surface. They lost a four game win streak in
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 4: their last game against the Mets. But yeah, it could
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 4: be a distracted spot. They're playing an American League team
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 4: that they might not really have that much focus on.
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 3: Seattle's been struggling.
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 4: Seattle's coming in from Texas, so they're coming in from
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 4: the Central times So both teams are gonna have to
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 4: adjust to the later time zone.
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 3: But it should be easier for Seattle to do this.
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 4: Plus they're in the middle of a road trip and
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 4: possibly in a bounced back spot because of all these
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 4: losses they've been taking recently lost five of their last
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 4: six or whatever. But I don't think Seattle's as bad
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 4: as the record looks. Man, I just don't look at
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 4: their run what's the run differential?
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 3: Hold on? Yeah, they're plus.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 4: Eight, so they're the only team in their division with
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 4: a positive run differential. So that kind of indicates that
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 4: they're a better team than everybody else in the AL West.
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 4: So I think it is misleading, like there are only
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 4: six teams in the American League with a positive run differential,
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 4: and it's Tampa, the Yankees, and the Red Sox, which
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 4: I know that's not surprising.
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 3: The White Sox also not surprising.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: Detroit, who I keep saying is better than the record looks,
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 4: and then Seattle, and that's it so kind of interesting there.
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 4: So yeah, Seattle's a little bit of an underrated team here.
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 4: Seattle has a pretty good bullpen. Both bullpen's arrested. I
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 4: think Seattle might debatably have the better bullpen than the Dodgers. Here.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 3: Seattle's twelfth, the Dodgers are seventh.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 4: But Seattle's got a much better era out of the bullpen,
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 4: like almost half a run better. So you could definitely
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 4: make the argument Seattle has the better bullpen here, Dodgers
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 4: have the better offense, There's no question about that.
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 3: Their number two. Seattle's really struggled.
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 4: In that department at twenty eighth, although they're probably they're
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 4: gonna be a little bit better on the road than
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 4: they are at home, though, because their home stadium is
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 4: very pitcher friendly. Seattle's gonna go with Luis Castillo in
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 4: this game, and he's finally kind of turning it around. Man,
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 4: he hasn't had a good season four point eight five
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 4: ERA one point three to three whip. But again I
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 4: keep pointing out that he's not that old. He's thirty three.
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 4: He hasn't really had any serious injury here that we
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 4: lead you to believe that he should have fallen completely
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 4: off a cliff here. And you look at his numbers
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 4: in the past. He basically pitched the full season last year.
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 4: His numbers have been way better than they are this
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 4: year in recent years. So I said he was going
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 4: to get better, and that is happening. He's been pitching
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 4: better recently. He's allowed at least four or fewer on
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 4: runs in every out and going all the way back
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 4: into late May. So he's definitely turning this thing around.
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is still a little bit high, though
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 4: his walk grade is actually okay. His strike out rate
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 4: is mediocre, but he's never really been a huge strike
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 4: up pitcher, but he is starting to pitch a bit better,
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 4: although really kind of more mediocre though his numbers against
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers, so it's not going to be easy to
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 4: go up against the Dodgers obviously. He's actually been okay
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 4: against them though, in one hundred and one at bats,
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 4: two fifty seven average, seven thirty four ohps, twenty seven
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 4: to nine strike out walk ratio, so he's not too
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 4: bad against them, and a lot of the damage comes
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 4: from Edmund, believe it or not, so if he pitches
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 4: around him a bit, he might be able to do
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 4: fine here against the Dodgers. Dodgers are going with Justin
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 4: Robleski here, although when I looked, they hadn't announced a
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 4: starting pitcher here though, so I don't know if it's
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 4: gonna be him or not. Let me see, Yeah, right now,
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 4: it's undecided for the Dodgers here, but they're favored like
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 4: minus two hundred. I mean, that is a very high
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 4: price for the Dodgers, especially giving their in a return
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 4: home spot. If it is Robleski, he does have good
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 4: numbers two point six two ERA, one point h one WHIP.
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 4: Although the advanced analytics guys hate him because he doesn't
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 4: strike anybody out and he pitches to contact. But like
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 4: I said, if he's continuing to do this, there's obviously
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 4: something to this, like he's not putting guys on base.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 3: He's been good at home two point three.
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 4: One R and he's allowed one sixty five batting average
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 4: at home, so he's been very, very good at home.
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 4: He's still in good form right now. The pitching in
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 4: the All Star Game didn't throw him off. He pitched
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 4: well coming out of that against Philly. He's been actually
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 4: really good recently. So Yeah, his last like handful of starts,
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 4: six starts, five starts, whatever this is, have all been good,
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 4: three or four earned runs in all of them. He's
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 4: faced some decent lineups in there. He's got a low
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 4: hit rate, low walk rate. His strike up rate is
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 4: also low though, like I said, which is why advanced
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 4: analytics don't like him, because he bitches to contact against Seattle.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 4: He's actually kind of struggled against Seattle, but they only
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 4: have eight at bats against some of the most of
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 4: their hitters have faced him three seventy five average, seven
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 4: fifth the ops three zero strike out walk ratio. It's
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 4: such a small sample size, there's not a lot to
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 4: take away from that.
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 3: But I told you it's a bad spot for the Dodgers.
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 4: Ninety four percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash,
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 4: and then they're laying a ridiculous price minus one ninety
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 4: something like should really against Seattle with a decent pitcher
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 4: on the mount for Seattle against you know, Robleski, Like,
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 4: should they really be laying that much of a price, Like, yeah,
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers have to be favored here, but still that's
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 4: kind of ridiculous. So I think there probably is some
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 4: value looking towards Seattle, and that is probably the way
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: I would play this is to probably grab Seattle on
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 4: the run line, like plus one and a half or whatever,
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 4: get that price down. You'll probably find it minus one
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 4: twenty on it or so maybe better. I don't know,
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 4: but I think you could debate that maybe Seattle has
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 4: a slight pitching edge and the starting pitching maybe just
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 4: based on the matchup numbers and then bullpen, I think
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 4: they should have a bit of an edge and situation,
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 4: they have an edge. That's probably what I would do there.
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 4: The money's also back in the under nine.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 3: And a half there.
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 4: I don't really have a feel for the total there,
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 4: but yeah, I would say Seattle might be the way
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 4: to lean in that one. And again, we don't know
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 4: who LA is gonna pitch here though. That might mean
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 4: that LA might be bringing somebody back from like the
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 4: disabled list or something.
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 3: So if you play.
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 4: Seattle and you're gonna play it now with LA having
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 4: action on their side, you might get screwed because it
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 4: might all of a sudden be like Snell or Glasno
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 4: or something coming back in a surprise I returned, So
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 4: that would be a worry, like why did they take
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 4: Rableski off the board when he's not hurt? Like that
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 4: would be my worry here that they're looking to shake
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 4: things up, but they're starting pitching rotation.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 3: All right, WNBA.
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 4: Before I get out of here, the first game up,
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 4: the seven to third game is gonna be my one
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 4: play here.
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 3: And this is ugly, I know, and you know what
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 3: I do with the WNBA.
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 4: We're gonna take Connecticut plus six and a half here
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 4: against Washington. I mean, first of all, this is gonna
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 4: be a game with a low total. It's in the
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 4: one fifties. Washington plays all these low scoring games, and
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 4: you know, in games that were supposed to be low scoring,
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 4: I like to look for underdogs because the points are
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 4: worth more. Each point is worth more when you get
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 4: to a lower scoring game. Washington, they're really good as
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 4: an underdog because they're a good defensive team, but they're
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 4: not as good as a favorite like this having to
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 4: lay points because again, they played deep and they get
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 4: into these low scoring games. So the type of team
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 4: you want to play as an underdog and fade as
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 4: a favorite. But we're also talking about teams coming out
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 4: of the All Star breaks. So you know what I say,
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 4: coming out of the All Star break or coming out
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 4: of a buy in football or anything like that, I
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 4: consider it to be a momentum stopper. So whatever your
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 4: momentum was going into the break, I think it ends
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 4: with that break. So Washington was on a good run
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 4: leaning into the All Star break. They played some pretty
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 4: big games. They played at Golden State twice and played
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 4: them tough both times and won the second game, so
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 4: they played well there and then they beat Vegas the
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 4: returning champs before going into the All Star breaks. So
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 4: just even without the All Star break, I would be
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 4: looking at this as a letdown spot after that huge
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 4: win over Vegas. And I think it's kind of a
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 4: sandwich spot because Washington plays Dallas after this, and Dallas.
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 3: They're a very hype team right now.
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 4: Becker's she's already back from injury, I'm pretty sure, because
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 4: she played in the All Star Game. Dallas has the
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 4: last two number one draft picks. You're not gonna pay
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 4: that much attention to Connecticut, man, That's just the way
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 4: it is.
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 3: Even though Washington did actually.
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 4: Lose in Connecticut, they beat them in Connecticut as well,
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 4: so they're one and one against Connecticut this year with
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 4: both games being in Connecticut. But I want to put
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 4: that much weight into that. What I'm thinking is Washington
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 4: is going to be in a letdown spot if they
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 4: played two huge games against Golden State and Vegas going
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 4: into the break. I think that break can hurt their
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 4: winning momentum and disrupt it. And they have a bigger
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 4: game on deck on Friday, So I think this is
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 4: a bad spot. And meanwhile, I think the break can
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 4: help Connecticut because they went into the break on a
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 4: bad note. They lost their last two games, and they
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 4: got annihilated by Indiana. In their last game, Caitlyn Clark
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 4: et cetera put up one hundred and twenty three points
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 4: against Connecticut. That's an embarrassing loss for Connecticut, Like when
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 4: you put when you give up that many points. Connecticut
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 4: hadn't given up any more than one oh six in
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 4: any game this year, and one of those was an
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 4: overtime game.
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 3: So yeah, Connecticut usually gives.
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 4: Up way fewer points than that, and that, yeah, everything
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 4: about that was just totally embarrassing, losing by almost forty points.
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 4: I think they're gonna use this break to fix so
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 4: munch of shit. And now it's like they're starting a
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 4: new road trip here.
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 3: So I like it.
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 4: I think it's gonna be a better spot for Connecticut,
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 4: a more focused spot. The momentum angle coming out of
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 4: the break helps them.
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 3: We're gonna take six.
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 4: You can get six and a half with them on
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 4: this right now. The line did go up from five
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 4: and a half from five.
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 3: To six and a half.
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 4: I don't really know why. I don't know what spurred
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 4: that move. Fifty tickets on and cash on Washington, so
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 4: I don't really see a good market read on this,
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 4: but I like Connecticut here man, So that's what we're
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 4: gonna do. Hopefully the WNBA for me stays hot again
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 4: because we were really good going into the break. Britney
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 4: Griner looks like he slash she is out for Connecticut.
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 4: I just don't give a shit. I mean, Grinder, I know,
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 4: Grinder's a big name, Grinder has to put up a
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 4: decent amount of points this year.
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 3: But Grinder's still old, you know what I mean.
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 4: I mean, this is like whatever Grinder missed that Indiana game,
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 4: which I know, usually I would say that's an injured
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 4: player theory spot, but I just don't know how to
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 4: magnificant it really is for Grinder to be out, you
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 4: know what I mean? So whatever, you're gonna give me
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 4: a couple of extra points in a spot like this, Okay,
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 4: I'll take Connecticut U plus the points.
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 3: They're hindy and what's up?
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 4: We're not gonna call it and we're not calling it
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 4: Toad's loads, no way. I already changed the branding to
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 4: toad Stool Sports from Jeffrey, who might come back to
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 4: the chat again at some point, which is it's also
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 4: a jab at Dave portnoy So Toronto at Minnesota. Now,
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 4: Minnesota went into the break. You can make arguments for
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 4: them going into the break on a good note or
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 4: a bad note because they won seven games in a
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 4: row going into the break, which looks like, yeah, that
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 4: break is gonna slow their momentum.
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 3: Here.
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 4: I don't know though, because their last game, their last
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 4: two games, really they didn't play well. They had a
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 4: close game twice in a row against Seattle, who's not
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 4: a good team. In Minnesota. They almost lost that last game.
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 4: I know they won, I know they won by ten,
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 4: but they were only winning that game by one in
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 4: the final two minutes of that game.
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 3: So it was a scare from Minnesota.
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 4: So you could make the argument that after that game,
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 4: they're gonna be shocked back into focus. However, I don't
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 4: like the fact that they went into this break on
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 4: a seven game win streak still because their momentum still
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 4: could get hurt by that. Now, one thing I didn't
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 4: know is Callier actually came back. That was a big
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 4: deal for Minnesota. She came back in their last game
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 4: they played, which if I had known that, I would
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 4: have been talking about the reverse injured player theory of course,
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 4: because when you're star player like that comes back. Collier
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 4: is one of the best players in the league. She
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 4: had literally been injured since the playoffs last year and
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 4: hadn't played since then, so that was a big deal.
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 4: I was talking about how when that happens, when your
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 4: best players coming back, you're gonna see the line get
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 4: skewed towards that team, So you're gonna get value fading.
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 3: Them and playing the other team.
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 4: But also the team with the star player coming back,
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 4: they have to readjust you know what I mean, They
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 4: have to It's like a big chemistry thing. So I
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 4: think Seattle covered, and if they didn't, they showed of
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 4: because they were probably at least ten and a half
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 4: point underdogs. I think in that game with Collier playing,
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 4: it was probably more than that, and they were losing
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 4: by one with two minutes to go, so obviously Seattle
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 4: didn't enough to cover. Yeah it was ten and a half,
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 4: so they did actually still cover barely, but.
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 3: Collier came back.
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 4: But now what I will say is that now the
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 4: Collier has a game under her belt, and she was good.
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 4: She put up a double double in that one. This
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 4: Minnesota line, this is the best team in the league, dude,
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 4: Like they were already the best team in the league
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 4: without Collier playing, Like this is crazy McBride. And then
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 4: their draft pick Miles has been really really good and
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 4: Howard as well. This team is stacked, and with Collier
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 4: having a game under her belt, you know, I think
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 4: they'll be better in the next game. So I could
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 4: see arguments going both ways here against Toronto. Here, I
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 4: don't really love this game. Obviously, Toronto did go into
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 4: the break on a three game losing streak, though they
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 4: got blown out in the last couple of games against
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 4: pretty good teams in Atlanta and Vegas. So you know,
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 4: if you just want to kind of simplify this and
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 4: just be like, well, one team is gonna have their
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 4: momentum stopped by the All Star Break and the other
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 4: team is gonna have some new positive momentum coming, then yeah,
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 4: it looks like the leam would be Toronto.
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 3: Are you're getting fifteen or fifteen and.
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 4: A half on this if you want to play Toronto
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 4: here and the money is actually disagreeing with it. Eighty
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 4: three percent of the tickets and fifty six percent of
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 4: the cash on Toronto. It looks like some of the
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 4: cash is coming in a Washington by the way, which
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 4: I don't I don't love seeing that, but yeah, I mean,
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 4: I don't know why the money is indicating that you
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 4: should lay the points in Minnesota here. I mean, obviously
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 4: I don't want to play this game, but I would
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 4: slightly lean towards taking the points with Toronto there. ESPN
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 4: has a game, probably just because it's Indiana and it's
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 4: Kaitlyn Clark, they get the ESPN billing, although the league
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 4: doesn't like Caitlyn Clark, so I don't know, even though
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 4: she gives them like the most publicity.
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 3: And now Sophie Cunningham, you know who's.
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 4: Sophie Cunningham is out there getting the ire of all
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 4: the leftists right now because she said that trans people
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 4: shouldn't play in She said that men shouldn't play in
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 4: women's sports, is what she said, which obviously she's correct
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 4: about that, and she's getting a ton of heat from
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 4: the moron left for that, so whatever. But yeah, Indiana
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 4: is playing at Seattle here. Seattle is a significantly worse
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 4: team than Indiana, but Indiana went into the break on
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 4: a very good note, including beating Seattle by the way,
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 4: at home. However, they only beat Seattle by three, so
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 4: Seattle did give Indiana scare there, so maybe Indiana will
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 4: take Seattle more seriously after that. But after that, Indiana
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 4: beat the Liberty and a blowout. That was a great
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 4: win for Indiana against a good Liberty team.
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 3: And then they finished.
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 4: By blowing out Connecticut going into the break, which I
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 4: already mentioned, which is a whatever type of game, and
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 4: you blow out the worst.
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 3: Team in the league.
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 4: Okay, but you know, even though they're starting a road
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 4: trip here Indiana, it is against a team that gave
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 4: them problems last time. I don't know how focused they're
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 4: really gonna be here, because they could lose their momentum
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 4: going into that break with the way they played. However, Seattle,
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 4: even though they went into the break on a on
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 4: a bad note. Basically they lost six games in a row.
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 4: They played Minnesota, they played Indiana tough, and then they
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 4: played Minnesota's up twice. They played three really difficult games
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 4: in a row. So if this was if they didn't
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 4: have a break here, I'd probably be looking to fade
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 4: Seattle coming into this. But because they had the break
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 4: and it might break, they're losing momentum, whereas Indiana's momentum
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 4: that was positive might get stopped. I think I would
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 4: simplify this one too, and probably lean towards Seattle plus
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 4: the points. But it looks like the money doesn't agree
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 4: with me here, fifty percent of tickets, eighty five percent
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 4: of the cash, laying the nine and a half with
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 4: Indiana on the road not something I'm gonna be doing.
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 4: Unless there's a really good reason of lay points like
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 4: that on the road, I'm not gonna do it.
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 3: I would lean towards taking it with Seattle. But also
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 3: those two.
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 4: Games both have a really high total, like almost thirty
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 4: points higher than the one in the game that I
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 4: gave out with the underdog play there.
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 3: The rest of the games all have high totals. They're
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 3: all one seventy eight or higher.
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 4: Portland at Vegas. I mean this is a mismatch as well.
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 4: We have a few big mismatches year pretty much, especially
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 4: the Minnesota and the Vegas games. These are probably the
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 4: two best teams in the league. Vegas actually lost to Washington,
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 4: like I mentioned earlier, going into the break, so they
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 4: did not go into the break on the best note,
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 4: losing two of three, so they and one of them
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 4: was a blowout loss to Indiana at home, so they
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 4: might actually show up for this. However, there's a big
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 4: look ahead here. They have a big Amazon Prime game
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 4: on Thursday against one of their rivals, New York and
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 4: their rival because they seem to always play each other
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 4: in the playoffs. A couple of years ago. I think
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 4: Vegas lost to New York and kind of got screwed
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 4: against them, so or maybe it was Minnesota that did.
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 4: I forget, but yeah, Vegas and New York don't like
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 4: each other, and Vegas I think has extra motivation to
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 4: want that New York game because they lost to New
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 4: York in the regular season I believe twice, if I'm
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 4: not mistaken or no, it was only once. But then
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 4: they of course they lost the Commissioners Cup to New
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 4: York as well, so I think Vegas is gonna be
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 4: eyeing that game against New York.
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 3: So I worry that.
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 4: Even though this should be a positive spot coming out
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 4: of the break here, after losing two of their last three,
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 4: they might have their eye looking ahead to New York
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 4: could be a look ahead spot. I don't really know
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 4: they're gonna pay that much attention to Portland when the
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 4: last time they played them, they went into Portland and
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 4: beat them by eight in Portland. And you know, Portland
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 4: likely is gonna get up for this because it's a
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 4: game against Vegas, and Portland went into the break.
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 3: With two straight losses.
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 4: Though they actually played pretty well against Minnesota and Dallas,
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 4: two good teams played competitively against both them, And if
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 4: they didn't have a break again, I might be saying
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 4: it might be kind of a hangover spot for them.
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 4: But because the break is going to allow them to
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 4: rest and they might be able to recover from that,
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 4: have some new momentum now now they're going to start
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 4: a road trip, I think I would lean to Portland
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 4: plus the points in this one.
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 3: The money again doesn't agree. The money looks like it's
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 3: strongly laying the eleven and a.
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 4: Half with Vegas, fifty three percent of tickets on Portland,
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 4: eighty nine percent of the cash on Vegacy Again, I'm
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 4: staying away these last three games. I disagree with all
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 4: three of those market reads, and I disagree with the
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 4: Washington Connecticut one too, But at least that one, the
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 4: market read is not really fleshed out yet on that game.
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 4: These other ones have strong market reads and I'm disagreeing
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 4: with all of them. And then we have New York
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 4: in LA to finish it off. And this game New
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 4: York having to go to the Pacific Coast could be
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 4: bad from them. You know, the biological clock scenario here,
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 4: We're gonna have to go out to the Pacific Coast,
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 4: play the late game, adjust to the time zone. And
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 4: New York did win their last two games going into
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 4: the break, although they barely got by Chicago in their
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 4: last game, which is not a great game where you know,
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 4: maybe just if they're continuing in the regular season, they
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 4: might bounce back from that or be shocked into focus.
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 4: And this is the start of a road trip, so
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 4: maybe it would generally be.
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 3: A focused spot.
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 4: But for a couple of reasons, I don't really think so.
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 4: One is that again they're winning momentum, I get stalled
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 4: out by the All Star Break. But also I think
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 4: they might look ahead. Well, the Pacific Coast time zone
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 4: adjustment is also gonna be bad, having to adjust to
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 4: that late night times on mess with their biological clock.
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 4: But the other thing is they might be looking ahead
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 4: to Vegas, even though they beat Vegas twice those two
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 4: teams do not like each other, Vegas of the returning champs,
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 4: so the Liberty might consider that to be a bigger game.
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 4: So that kind of has to be looking towards LA
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 4: and this one. LA went into the break on a
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 4: bad note. They lost five games in a row, and
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 4: I gave you guys a winner. I think the last
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 4: WNBA play gave out was a winner where I think
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 4: we're on like a four and one run in the
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 4: WNBA right now. That was one of the winners against Phoenix.
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 4: So we're definitely up on the WNBA season again. So
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 4: I like that I've turned it around. But still a
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 4: couple of our losses and there were bullshit as well,
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 4: but yeah, we got to win with Phoenix there against LA.
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 4: I thought it was a bad spot. LA was returning
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 4: on from a road trip and they lost. Now, technically
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 4: this is the second game back home, but not really
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 4: because they did go into the All Star break, so
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 4: it's not really that. But at least for LA they're
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 4: pretty much they're staying in the Pacific time zone though,
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 4: you know, even though some of their players probably played
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 4: in the All Star Game.
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 3: Whatever.
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 4: One question I would have is after that whole All
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 4: star break and whatever are they getting Plumb back And
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 4: it looks like the answer is no, she's still not
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 4: back yet, So that would be one thing you'd want
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 4: to get answered because she's like the best player on
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 4: LA and she's still out.
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 3: But I would take LA plus.
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 4: The points here. I think the spot is better for them.
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 4: I think it's my second strongest opinion here. And again
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 4: the money doesn't agree. Fifty eight percent of tickets eighty
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 4: nine percent of the cash on the liberty here at
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 4: five and a half. Basically, now, yeah, I would lean
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 4: towards taking it with LA. But yeah, that's what I
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 4: got here. Again, my only play is going to be
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 4: on the game that has the really low total one.
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 3: I think it's also the best situation. So you got
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 3: my plays.
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 4: I only have two plays today, I mean very selective
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 4: run Blue Jays Nationals first five under the four and
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 4: a half. In baseball, I think it's an under the
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 4: radar pitching matchup and I like it.
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 3: So that's my only MLB play.
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 4: And I did say that I had opinions on I
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 4: think the stronger opinions that I had in baseball otherwise
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 4: were Minnesota first five, Cleveland again on the money Line,
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee on the money Line or make your own minus
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 4: one run line?
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 3: And what was the other one I had? I forget.
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 4: I had one other one that I kind of liked
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 4: above the rest, but I can't remember what it was.
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 3: Let me look real quick before I get out of here.
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 3: Learn a tone on Twitter, by the way, learn a
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 3: tone on Instagram.
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 4: You know you can follow me there while I'm trying
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 4: to bring the tab back up that I had that
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 4: I took off.
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 3: It was I don't even see it now. I don't
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 3: even remember what it was. Maybe there wasn't another one,
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 3: but yeah, whatever, Yeah, I think it was those other three,
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 3: all right?
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Like, subscribe to the channel here and get notified
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 4: when I go live whatever. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify,
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 4: Spreaker covered in You because my yuke channel on YouTube
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 4: you covers. Maybe my voice seems a little better right now.
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 3: But I don't know.
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 4: I don't know if it's good enough to do the
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 4: Queen cover that I has been requested that I still
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 4: haven't gotten to loser casts every Tuesday night Patreon, dot com,
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 4: slash and learned to totally want to support me that way.
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 4: Loser Cast will be back tonight yes, so check that
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 4: out at ten pm on YouTube. But we're gonna get
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 4: banned from YouTube on that show, So we got to
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 4: find another way to do it. You know, if you
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 4: want to support me, if you want to, you know,
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 4: find a way to help me out. If you saw
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 4: my tweet, I got completely screwed. My Steam account got hacked,
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 4: and I hadn't been active really because I had stopped
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 4: playing video games. I had a lot of very valuable
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 4: merchandise from playing counter Strike back in the day and whatever.
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 4: Probably at least literally thirty thousand dollars worth of merchandise
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 4: is there that I had just hung on to. Hackers
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 4: targeted my account and I was not even aware of
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 4: it because I never even got any notification that had happened.
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 4: They found some way to gain access to my account
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 4: through whatever loophole's Steam has with their security lost all
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 4: that stuff.
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 3: They stole all that.
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 4: Shit from me, and Steam is blaming me for it,
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 4: and they won't help me because that's their policy. So
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 4: if people know, you know, I don't know if I
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 4: should go like a.
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 3: Legal route here.
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 4: I mean, I dude, I mean, I've had like a
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 4: serious amount of money stolen from me, So how can
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 4: they not be a legal approach to that, you know
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 4: what I mean? So if anybody knows anything that might
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 4: help me there, I'm all ears, Or maybe I should
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 4: do a new fundraiser for it, cause it's fucking bullshit, dude.
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 4: The people who did that should be in fucking jail.
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 4: I'm so like, I don't know what else to say
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 4: about it. And just because it's digital means fucking nothing.
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 4: Like everything is digital, now, you know what I mean,
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 4: Like your bank account is digital, Like.
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 3: Those numbers are just pixels on a screen.
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 4: Like is it okay to just steal somebody's US dollars
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 4: out of their bank account or steal somebody's crypto?
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 3: No, it's not.
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 4: It's there's no difference. It's items that are actually legitimately
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 4: worth money. And it's not IP either because these items
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 4: are unique, Like you're the only one that owns it,
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 4: so if somebody you like, you trade them and shit,
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 4: so some if somebody else owns it, or you know,
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 4: you could sell it and somebody else could buy it
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 4: from you. It's exclusive, you know what I mean. That's
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 4: the difference between IP. It's not an idea. Like an idea,
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 4: multiple people can all have it at the same time,
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 4: and it's.
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 3: Not exclusive exclusive.
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 4: These items are only one person can be the owner
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 4: of that item.
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm fucking pissed.
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 4: Also, the New York Giants Gee Spot podcast will be
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 4: back at some point.
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 3: That's gonna do it.
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 4: Rockies, Yeah, I mean there are situational angles for the Rockies.
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 4: I mean, if you're gonna play the Rockies, make it
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 4: a run line play probably in.
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 3: The first five.
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 4: If you do that, I would say prop because they're
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 4: an underdog. I probably put some on the money line.
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 4: But yeah, whatever, I am not really I'm not recommending it.
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 4: Fuck all that shit.
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 3: Attorneys are probably.
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 4: Gonna laugh me out of the room, like.
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 3: We we need to have some sort of recourse here. It's
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 3: fucking ridiculous. So that's gonna do it. I gotta get
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 3: out of here.
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna have to have lunch soon too. I need
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 4: to cool off here.
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 3: Let's get some wins today.
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 4: Man, We've been on a good run here, so you know,
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 4: if we go one on one today, I won't be
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 4: too unhappy about it. If Connecticut wins out right, it's
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 4: gonna help because remember, if you're taking an underdog like that,
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 4: I always recommend putting an amount on the money line,
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 4: and with a small underdog like that, put ten percent
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 4: of it on the money line, and then you get
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 4: a little bit more if they you'll still win money
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 4: if they cover and don't win, you know what I mean,
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 4: But you'll just it feels good when you get that.
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 3: It's worth it. If you think they have a good
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 3: chance to cover.
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 4: There's a better chance they're gonna win what the osmagers
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 4: are giving you. Usually that's what you're saying, so you
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 4: know what I mean.
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 3: So I think it makes sense in the long run.
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 4: You're gonna win more money if you put some on
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 4: the on the money line there, and it feels bad
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 4: if you don't have any on the money line, and
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 4: then win out right because you made that call.
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 3: So that's gonna do it.
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 4: Peace.
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 1: If the dogs starts talking, hand me the phone, let
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 1: somebody answer.
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 2: Let somebody know.
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 3: You do not have to.
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 2: Lose this round a lone. Hold on, hold on nothing nice,
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 2: not now, hold on, hold on, let me fall. You
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 2: are that bad luck by time, but it don't get
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 2: the crown. Hold on, hold on, stay with me, nice,
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 2: hold on, hold on, You're still here.