Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 3/19/26: Joe Kent Sounds Off On Tucker, Professor Pape On Incoming Iran Invasion

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3/19/26: Joe Kent Sounds Off On Tucker, Professor Pape On Incoming Iran Invasion · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

0:00
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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Speaker 3: dot com. Turning now to Tucker Carlson's interview with Joe Kent.
0:37
Speaker 3: So first we're going to start here with some news
0:39
Speaker 3: at the top. Let's put it up here on the screen,
0:41
Speaker 3: breaking from Semaphore last night. Joe Kent is now under
0:45
Speaker 3: FBI investigation for allegedly leaking classified information. I'm told the
0:52
Speaker 3: investigation predates his departure.
0:54
Speaker 1: I'm sure it does. So, I'm sure, sure sure that
0:56
Speaker 1: it does.
0:57
Speaker 3: Call that one tweeted out a clip of our segment,
1:02
Speaker 3: and I checked the time. I think we recorded it
1:04
Speaker 3: eight minutes after he resigned, and I was like, they're
1:06
Speaker 3: gonna indet him, and I knew, I know the playbook.
1:08
Speaker 3: You know why because it happened to Dan Caldwell. And
1:10
Speaker 3: what happened with Dan Caldwell. They accused him of being
1:12
Speaker 3: a leaker, he was fired, they drug his name through
1:15
Speaker 3: the mud, And just yesterday it was announced that he's
1:18
Speaker 3: been completely cleared of all wrongdoing and that the Odie
1:21
Speaker 3: and I polygraphed and security has restated his security clearance.
1:25
Speaker 1: It'll be allowed back into the government. So just so
1:27
Speaker 1: you're all aware about the.
1:28
Speaker 3: Last time they said somebody with some anti war sympathies
1:31
Speaker 3: and accused him of being a leaker. This is obviously
1:35
Speaker 3: complete bullshit FBI, Keystone, Cash and all of these other
1:40
Speaker 3: people claiming that this is some you know, oh a leak. Listen,
1:44
Speaker 3: I knew it was coming. They cannot let this slide.
1:47
Speaker 3: Why because Joe is too important. He's too important, He's
1:50
Speaker 3: the biggest voice historically, no sub cabinet official, remember Senate
1:55
Speaker 3: confirmed has ever resigned in protests over a war like
1:59
Speaker 3: not in Vietnam, not Iraq. I mean, this is Daniel
2:02
Speaker 3: Ellsberg level of coming out and the courage to do so.
2:05
Speaker 3: I mean, look, no hate of de Ellsburg, who I love,
2:08
Speaker 3: but he waited until the nineteen seventies to come out
2:10
Speaker 3: we're talking about in the mix, Yeah said, this is
2:13
Speaker 3: a nightmare disaster and I cannot be in good conscience.
2:15
Speaker 2: It reminds me of some of like the Watergate resignations
2:18
Speaker 2: like that, that kind of parallel. I mean, they you know,
2:20
Speaker 2: I don't believe this administration, and I think you're probably
2:23
Speaker 2: right that the allegations are complete bullshit that he was
2:25
Speaker 2: a leaker. If he did league though, I wouldn't blame him.
2:27
Speaker 2: I mean, he was trying. He was banging's hat against
2:30
Speaker 2: the wall, watching the according to you know, what he
2:32
Speaker 2: said and what Marco Rubio and others have basically confirmed that,
2:36
Speaker 2: watching the Israelis come in and lie to the president
2:39
Speaker 2: about what an imminent threat Iron is blah blah blah
2:42
Speaker 2: there was, according to to Kent and will play these
2:44
Speaker 2: clips for you in a moment. You know, there was
2:47
Speaker 2: a lot of debate leading up to the Twelve Day War.
2:49
Speaker 2: Leading up to this one, anyone who would have been
2:51
Speaker 2: a dissenting voice was just completely and utterly shut out.
2:54
Speaker 2: So if he wanted to try to influence the president.
2:58
Speaker 2: His only path would have been to go to the press.
3:00
Speaker 2: So again I'm not saying he did that. I remained
3:03
Speaker 2: very skeptical of these claims, but if he did, I
3:06
Speaker 2: would see that as you know, a patriotic act of
3:08
Speaker 2: him trying to prevent what he knew to be a
3:11
Speaker 2: disastrous war, trying to get around, you know.
3:14
Speaker 4: This wall that had been built.
3:16
Speaker 2: And you know, I like Trump is responsible for the
3:18
Speaker 2: fact by the way that that wall is built, that
3:20
Speaker 2: he surrounded himself with complete sick efens who were just
3:22
Speaker 2: telling him what he wanted to hear about how great
3:24
Speaker 2: this war would be, and how easy it would be,
3:26
Speaker 2: and how the regime watappel immediately, et cetera, et cetera.
3:29
Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's get actually into some of the clips
3:31
Speaker 3: here from the interview E two. Let's start with this
3:34
Speaker 3: declarative statement from a man with the highest security clearance
3:37
Speaker 3: in the United States government, national counter Terrorism director, as
3:40
Speaker 3: of a couple of days ago, and Ron was not
3:43
Speaker 3: an imminent threat to the United States.
3:45
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
3:46
Speaker 5: Was Roan on the verge of getting a nuclear weapon?
3:51
Speaker 6: No, they weren't, you know, three weeks ago, and this started,
3:55
Speaker 6: and they weren't in June either. I mean, the Irions
3:58
Speaker 6: have had a religious ruling of fatua against actually developing
4:01
Speaker 6: a nuclear weapons since two thousand and four. That's been
4:03
Speaker 6: in place since two thousand and four. That's available in
4:06
Speaker 6: the public sphere. But then also we had no intelligence
4:08
Speaker 6: to indicate that that thought to what was being disobeyed
4:11
Speaker 6: or it was on the cusp of being lifted. The
4:14
Speaker 6: Iranian strategy, it's actually pretty pragmatic. The Iranians are obviously
4:18
Speaker 6: aware of what's taking place in their region, and their
4:21
Speaker 6: strategy was to not completely abandon their nuclear program because
4:25
Speaker 6: they saw what happened to market Offie and Libya when
4:28
Speaker 6: he said, hey, I've got no more nukes.
4:29
Speaker 7: I'll do what you say. I'll give up my nukes.
4:31
Speaker 1: And we gave them a vol peace price.
4:34
Speaker 6: We regime changed him and he was executed by his
4:37
Speaker 6: own people in the most horrific.
4:38
Speaker 8: Oh Sodom bayonet.
4:39
Speaker 6: Right, The Iranians position, when viewed from the lens of
4:43
Speaker 6: the region, was actually fairly pragmatic. They were preventing, you know,
4:47
Speaker 6: themselves from developing a bomb, but they still wanted the ability.
4:50
Speaker 6: They wanted the ability to enrich They wanted the ability
4:53
Speaker 6: to have some components so that they weren't completely stripped
4:56
Speaker 6: of it. And when we always assessed that they were
4:58
Speaker 6: either several months or a year, two years away from
5:01
Speaker 6: actually being able to develop a nuclear weapon.
5:03
Speaker 7: And that's not because the Iranians are stupid people.
5:05
Speaker 6: I think we can tell right now that the Iranians
5:08
Speaker 6: are anything but stupid. They had the ability, I think
5:11
Speaker 6: that the brain power to actually develop one, or they
5:14
Speaker 6: could have simply traded a ton of oil with Pakistan
5:17
Speaker 6: or someone else to actually get a nuclear weapon. They
5:20
Speaker 6: were not doing that. We had no indication, no intelligence
5:23
Speaker 6: to indicate that they were.
5:24
Speaker 3: Does that sound like a bunch of religious fanatics who
5:27
Speaker 3: don't think or what do they say? They're at theocracy,
5:30
Speaker 3: they want the end times, they hate us all very much.
5:32
Speaker 1: What do you hear from that? Highly highly pragmatic.
5:35
Speaker 3: You have people who respond to circumstances, thought very deeply
5:41
Speaker 3: about the types of decisions they were making. But most importantly,
5:44
Speaker 3: no imminent threat. No eminent threat. Okay, so what they
5:48
Speaker 3: said is bs completely and I know that might be
5:52
Speaker 3: obvious to the viewers of our show. In the hopes
5:55
Speaker 3: that this reaches many many people, remember that the Pentagon,
6:00
Speaker 3: the White House, White House pres Secretary, the President of
6:03
Speaker 3: the United States, the Secretary of State, all of them
6:05
Speaker 3: have said that this is an imminent threat. And as
6:08
Speaker 3: Kent explains very clearly, the only imminent threat was Israel's
6:13
Speaker 3: imminent threat to the country of Iran, who was then
6:16
Speaker 3: going to attack Israel. And yes, the United States of
6:19
Speaker 3: America bases which protects Israel, and as a result, we
6:23
Speaker 3: had to go in and preemptively strike Israel's preemption.
6:26
Speaker 1: When you put it that way, it's a real different
6:29
Speaker 1: imminent threat, isn't it.
6:30
Speaker 3: And I think that that, you know, coming out of
6:32
Speaker 3: the mouth of somebody who had access to the intelligence,
6:36
Speaker 3: who was in the room not for this one, but
6:38
Speaker 3: for the previous one on Midnight Hammer, and he went
6:41
Speaker 3: through some of that. I just have no other conclusion than, like,
6:46
Speaker 3: you have a president who is completely captured here by
6:50
Speaker 3: Israeli interests and logic, and for whatever reason, he refuses to,
6:56
Speaker 3: you know, to say no, as Kent says, is an option.
6:58
Speaker 1: And I'm not blaming his.
7:00
Speaker 3: Like yeah, it's their fault too, but I'm saying Trump
7:04
Speaker 3: is incapable of doing this.
7:06
Speaker 1: He is incapable, and he has now shown us that.
7:07
Speaker 3: And if you listen to this interview, and we're about
7:10
Speaker 3: to get to even some more shocking stuff around.
7:12
Speaker 1: Charlie Kirk and all of that.
7:13
Speaker 3: Like, I do not have another conclusion in that. That
7:16
Speaker 3: is the only conclusion I can draw. Well, he's terrified.
7:18
Speaker 3: He's either terrified or he agrees. I don't know what's worse.
7:22
Speaker 3: I prefer terrified. It was at least maybe we can
7:23
Speaker 3: get out of that.
7:24
Speaker 2: We still see Trump parenting these insane Israeli talking points.
7:28
Speaker 2: It was deeply disturbing to me when he said that
7:31
Speaker 2: the you know, the the celebrate the pro government demonstrations
7:35
Speaker 2: industreet that they were fake, that they were AI And look,
7:39
Speaker 2: I don't know what he believes in, what are lies
7:42
Speaker 2: or whatever, it seemed to me like he actually believed that,
7:44
Speaker 2: or at least he believed it had enough credibility to report,
7:47
Speaker 2: you know, repeat it to the American public.
7:49
Speaker 4: That comes directly from the Israelis.
7:52
Speaker 2: So there's no doubt, you know, the influence campaign that
7:55
Speaker 2: they successfully launched here. And I want to pair this
8:00
Speaker 2: Joe Kent's comments there about how no imminent threat. No,
8:03
Speaker 2: they were not developing a nuclear weapon. That is not
8:05
Speaker 2: what we assessed at all. With Tulci Gabbard's testimony yesterday,
8:09
Speaker 2: where she was asked about this as well, John Ossoff
8:13
Speaker 2: pressed her on you listen, you said last summer, this
8:16
Speaker 2: nuclear threat was obliterated, that their nuclear program was obliterated.
8:19
Speaker 4: So what's going on here?
8:21
Speaker 1: This is d one.
8:21
Speaker 4: Let's listen to that.
8:23
Speaker 9: That opening statement, as submitted to the committee in advance
8:26
Speaker 9: of this hearing, stated that as a result of last
8:28
Speaker 9: summer's airstrikes, quote, Iran's nuclear enrichment program was obliterated end
8:34
Speaker 9: quote correct. That's right, And is that, in fact the
8:37
Speaker 9: assessment of the intelligence community. Yes, So the assessment of
8:41
Speaker 9: the intelligence community is that Iran's nuclear enrichment program was
8:45
Speaker 9: obliterated by last summer's air strikes.
8:47
Speaker 1: Yes.
8:48
Speaker 9: And the opening statement you submitted to the committee last
8:50
Speaker 9: night also stated, quote there has been no efforts since
8:53
Speaker 9: then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability end quote.
8:57
Speaker 1: Correct.
8:58
Speaker 9: That's right, and that's the assessment of the intelligence community.
9:01
Speaker 10: Yes.
9:02
Speaker 9: The White House stated on March first of this year
9:04
Speaker 9: that this war was launched and was quote a military
9:08
Speaker 9: campaign to eliminate the imminent nuclear threat posed by the
9:12
Speaker 9: Iranian regime end quote, that's a statement from the White House,
9:16
Speaker 9: quote the imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime?
9:21
Speaker 9: Was it the assessment of the intelligence community that there
9:23
Speaker 9: was an imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime?
9:29
Speaker 10: The intelligence community assessed that Iran maintained the intention to
9:33
Speaker 10: rebuild and to continue to grow their nuclear enrichment.
9:37
Speaker 9: Was it the assessment of the intelligence community that there
9:39
Speaker 9: was a quote imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime?
9:43
Speaker 8: Yes?
9:43
Speaker 10: Or no, Senator, the only person who can determine and
9:46
Speaker 10: what is and is not an imminent threat is the president.
9:49
Speaker 2: False, So she won't say it, Well, that's not really
9:53
Speaker 2: my job.
9:53
Speaker 4: That's up to the president.
9:54
Speaker 3: The only passion who can determine an imminent threat is
9:57
Speaker 3: the pre No, No, not truely your job? Yes, what
10:00
Speaker 3: is your job is to determine which she knows. She knows,
10:04
Speaker 3: but she's unwilling to just outright lie, so she dodges
10:09
Speaker 3: by saying, well, the President and all his brilliance and
10:11
Speaker 3: glory and magnificence, he's the one that we have to
10:14
Speaker 3: defer to, and only he can really, with his magical abilities,
10:17
Speaker 3: can really determine whether this was a threat to the
10:20
Speaker 3: United States. And I want to emphasize one other aspect
10:22
Speaker 3: of the testimony there in the exchange with John Ossoff,
10:25
Speaker 3: he says, in your written testimony, you talked about how
10:29
Speaker 3: there had been no efforts since the nuclear ritrment was
10:33
Speaker 3: supposedly obliterated to try to rebuild their enrichment capability.
10:38
Speaker 2: That was in the written testimony. She chose not to
10:41
Speaker 2: say that when she actually gave her opening statement. That
10:45
Speaker 2: was omitted because again, that's very uncomfortable for this administration
10:50
Speaker 2: in all of their many layered lies and rationales for
10:53
Speaker 2: why we are now in this disaster.
10:54
Speaker 8: Yeah.
10:54
Speaker 3: Well, she's actually literally testifying as you and I are talking,
10:57
Speaker 3: and she just continues to say she will. She's like
11:00
Speaker 3: the ode and I is not my personal view.
11:02
Speaker 1: This is the view of.
11:03
Speaker 3: The intelligence community, and the president is the one who
11:06
Speaker 3: can make the imminent threat decision. Now to the point
11:09
Speaker 3: that I made earlier about Israeli capture, Joe went into
11:12
Speaker 3: great detail about what that looked like inside the information
11:16
Speaker 3: environment and the lead up to this war.
11:18
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
11:19
Speaker 7: But I know how this works.
11:20
Speaker 6: I know the Israeli officials, some in intelligence, some in government,
11:23
Speaker 6: will come to us government officials, and they will say
11:27
Speaker 6: all kinds of things that we know from our intelligence
11:31
Speaker 6: just simply isn't true.
11:33
Speaker 7: And they'll say, hey, I'm giving you a preview.
11:34
Speaker 6: It's not an intelligence channels yet, but here's what's going
11:36
Speaker 6: to happen, and that doesn't usually come back.
11:39
Speaker 5: Wait, wait a second. I mean I thought that US
11:42
Speaker 5: policymakers made their decisions on the basis of intelligence collected
11:47
Speaker 5: and or vetted by our intelligence. That's what we have
11:51
Speaker 5: intelligence agencies that soak up hundreds of billions a year.
11:54
Speaker 5: But you're saying that Israeli officials short circuited the entire
11:58
Speaker 5: US government to American policymakers and said, it doesn't matter
12:04
Speaker 5: what your country says, here's what we know.
12:06
Speaker 6: Usually they're pretty slack, and they'll say, hey, this isn't
12:10
Speaker 6: in the intelligence channels yet because it's it's going to
12:12
Speaker 6: take some time to get there. And here they're on
12:15
Speaker 6: the cusp of building a bomb. You know they're they're
12:17
Speaker 6: going to I don't know, you pick your topic. A
12:20
Speaker 6: lot of times they'll sample different things until they find
12:22
Speaker 6: what sticks.
12:23
Speaker 3: Sample different things until they find what sticks. So it's
12:25
Speaker 3: not intelligence propaganda. You also talked about how he would
12:28
Speaker 3: hear things from the Israelis, and then on the next
12:30
Speaker 3: day he would hear it on Mark Levin show, or
12:32
Speaker 3: in the Wall Street Journal or by Mark Dewitz, anybody
12:35
Speaker 3: from the Israel lobby. I mean literally out of the
12:37
Speaker 3: book from Professor John Meihersheimer who we just talked to.
12:40
Speaker 3: This is the Israel lobby, the most sophisticated lobby. And
12:43
Speaker 3: now I would say, the history of mankind the co
12:45
Speaker 3: option of a US superpower, and that does not in
12:47
Speaker 3: any way absolve Donald Trump from allowing himself to be
12:50
Speaker 3: lobby controlled or whatever here by the Israelis.
12:53
Speaker 1: I want to make that very clear.
12:54
Speaker 3: But I think whenever we play this next one, honestly,
12:58
Speaker 3: this was the most shocking part.
12:59
Speaker 1: I I plan on spending a decent amount of time
13:01
Speaker 1: on this.
13:02
Speaker 3: In our interview with Joe Kent, which is currently scheduled
13:04
Speaker 3: for tomorrow, is his discussion around the circumstances of Charlie
13:08
Speaker 3: Kirk's assassination and then connecting that to Butler, and then
13:11
Speaker 3: connecting that to potentially why this war is happening the
13:14
Speaker 3: way that it is.
13:15
Speaker 1: For let's take a listen.
13:16
Speaker 6: Charlie Kirk is killed publicly in a very horrific way,
13:20
Speaker 6: and we're not really even allowed to look into that
13:22
Speaker 6: at all. And Charlie Kirk was one of President Trump's
13:26
Speaker 6: closest advisors, and he also advocated heavily against.
13:29
Speaker 7: A war with Iran. He was in the Oval Office
13:32
Speaker 7: in the lead up to the Twelve Day War. I
13:35
Speaker 7: wasn't particularly close with Charlie. He was very gracious to
13:38
Speaker 7: me when I was running for Congress, very very supportive.
13:40
Speaker 6: So we knew each other. And the last time I
13:42
Speaker 6: saw Charlie Kirk on this earth was in June in
13:47
Speaker 6: the West Wing in the stairway, and I said hi
13:50
Speaker 6: to him, and he looked me in the eye and
13:51
Speaker 6: he said very loudly, and it's a small you've been
13:53
Speaker 6: in the West Wing. It's small, it's a tight space.
13:56
Speaker 6: And he said, Joe, stop us from getting into a
13:59
Speaker 6: war with.
13:59
Speaker 7: Iran, very loudly.
14:01
Speaker 5: He was single minded.
14:01
Speaker 7: And he walked off and he went, I believe, into
14:03
Speaker 7: the Oval.
14:05
Speaker 6: So when one of President Trump's closest advisors, who is
14:08
Speaker 6: vocally advocating for us to not go to war with
14:12
Speaker 6: Iran and for us to rethink at least our relationship
14:16
Speaker 6: with the Israelis, and then he suddenly publicly assassinated and
14:21
Speaker 6: we're not allowed to ask any questions about that.
14:24
Speaker 7: It's a data point. It's a data point that we
14:26
Speaker 7: need to look into.
14:27
Speaker 5: What do you mean when you say we're not allowed
14:30
Speaker 5: to ask any questions about that.
14:31
Speaker 6: We've been told that this individual, Robinson is a lone gunman,
14:37
Speaker 6: and maybe he is. But the investigation that I was
14:41
Speaker 6: a part of, the National Counterarism Center was a part of.
14:43
Speaker 6: We were stopped from continuing to investigate. And the FBI
14:46
Speaker 6: will say that they stopped that because they wanted to
14:50
Speaker 6: have every turn everything over to the Utah state authorities.
14:53
Speaker 6: Everything's going to trial. It's very very sensitive. But there
14:55
Speaker 6: are still a lot for us to look into that
14:57
Speaker 6: I can't really get into. But there was still linkage
15:01
Speaker 6: for us to investigate that we needed to run down.
15:03
Speaker 6: I'm not making any conclusions. I'm not saying I don't
15:06
Speaker 6: think because you know, because of this this happened. I'm
15:09
Speaker 6: not saying that at all. I'm just saying there's unanswered questions.
15:11
Speaker 6: We know the pressure because of the text message text
15:14
Speaker 6: messages that have been made public that Charlie was under
15:16
Speaker 6: a lot of pressure from a lot of pro Israel donors.
15:20
Speaker 6: And again we know Charlie was advocating to President Trump
15:22
Speaker 6: against this war with Iran.
15:25
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, that shocked me.
15:27
Speaker 3: That shocked me, as you and I know, we're not
15:28
Speaker 3: We're not Charlie Kirk conspirat. We're not Egyptian planes. People
15:31
Speaker 3: over here, we cover that story at the time the
15:34
Speaker 3: NCTC Joe kend himself was blocked by cash battal by
15:38
Speaker 3: the FBI. I don't know, man, you listen to that,
15:43
Speaker 3: what conclusion are you going to draw?
15:45
Speaker 1: Well, wait, what does he keep hinting at?
15:46
Speaker 2: You have to read, but I mean not read very
15:48
Speaker 2: much between the lines. But he's saying, look, this is
15:51
Speaker 2: what Charlie said to me. He said, keep us from
15:53
Speaker 2: going to war with Iran. We know that he was
15:56
Speaker 2: under all this pressure from pro Israel donors.
15:59
Speaker 4: There were some sorts of questions.
16:01
Speaker 2: That I had based on you know, tips or whatever,
16:03
Speaker 2: until he had access to of a potential FOREG nexus
16:07
Speaker 2: and I was blocked from being able to continue the
16:10
Speaker 2: investigation and they said no, no, it's going to be
16:12
Speaker 2: just handle at the state level. And any of the
16:14
Speaker 2: queries that he made were just completely stonewalled. So I mean,
16:18
Speaker 2: he's not just he's heavily hinting at the possibility that
16:22
Speaker 2: he thinks, which is I mean, this is truly truly
16:26
Speaker 2: shocking stuff. Shocking stuff, and look, it requires a lot
16:32
Speaker 2: of evidence.
16:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, let's be clear.
16:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, the current evidence says what Tyler Robinson Charlie Kirk okay,
16:38
Speaker 3: and that's probably the case. The case that he is
16:41
Speaker 3: alluding to is about some potential for innking it. And again,
16:44
Speaker 3: I want to be clear here, I would never make
16:46
Speaker 3: this statement without the evidence that we now have, which
16:49
Speaker 3: is an allegation made by the National counter Terrorism Director
16:54
Speaker 3: with the highest level of security clearance, who, as were
16:57
Speaker 3: reported at the time for by the New York Times,
16:59
Speaker 3: was blocked from any foreign connection investigation and is now
17:02
Speaker 3: bringing this up, not just I want to be clear too.
17:06
Speaker 3: In his Tucker interview, he brought this up organically. He
17:08
Speaker 3: did not bring it up as after Tucker pressed him
17:11
Speaker 3: on the question. It was brought up in context of
17:14
Speaker 3: the Butler assassination attempt and this one, and in both
17:17
Speaker 3: cases he said, we weren't allowed to fully investigate either
17:21
Speaker 3: of those connections. I mean, and then he said I
17:23
Speaker 3: think that President Trump could feel under threat. He is
17:26
Speaker 3: drawing a conclusion in his mind, he is drawing. Now,
17:30
Speaker 3: if I do that, I'm a crazy person because I
17:32
Speaker 3: don't have inside information. I'm not in the situation room.
17:34
Speaker 3: I haven't seen all this stuff he has, right, Yeah,
17:37
Speaker 3: and so based on that, I mean, man, like, what
17:41
Speaker 3: are we drawing conclusions here for?
17:43
Speaker 2: Like?
17:43
Speaker 3: And I'm trying so hard not to go over the
17:47
Speaker 3: brink here, but yeah, this is I mean, this is crazy. Yes,
17:50
Speaker 3: it's crazy.
17:50
Speaker 2: Well, and one of the things that has been speculated
17:53
Speaker 2: about how Trump, why Trump decided to get into this
17:58
Speaker 2: insane war, was that he believed that the Iranians had
18:02
Speaker 2: been trying to assassinate him, and he said something to
18:06
Speaker 2: the fact of I got the I Tola before he
18:08
Speaker 2: could get me. So it does seem like, you know,
18:10
Speaker 2: he had some thought in that direction, and that could
18:13
Speaker 2: be a potential motivation. This opens up another question if
18:16
Speaker 2: he felt under threat from the Israelis. I mean, that
18:19
Speaker 2: is what Joe Kent is hinting at here, very heavily
18:22
Speaker 2: hinting at here that the threat that Trump could have
18:24
Speaker 2: felt to himself and his family could have been that
18:28
Speaker 2: he was worried about what the Israelis would do. And again,
18:33
Speaker 2: it's wild to even say this stuff. But when you
18:36
Speaker 2: have someone who was at this high level of government,
18:38
Speaker 2: with access the information that he had, who is suggesting this,
18:43
Speaker 2: you have to take it seriously. There are a number
18:46
Speaker 2: of other things that he said that were extremely interesting.
18:49
Speaker 2: He talked a lot about how there were people who
18:52
Speaker 2: were posting things online who seemed to have fore knowledge
18:56
Speaker 2: of the plot against Charlie and the ultimate murder of Charlie,
19:00
Speaker 2: and that that was something he wanted to pursue that
19:02
Speaker 2: also was not allowed to be pursued, so that was
19:05
Speaker 2: very interesting. He also made this comment about how one
19:09
Speaker 2: tactic of the government is that they will they will
19:13
Speaker 2: stop providing any information to the public about something that
19:17
Speaker 2: the public is obviously very interested in and about which
19:19
Speaker 2: there should be more information, the Butler assassination being one example,
19:22
Speaker 2: Charlie Kirk's assassination being another example.
19:26
Speaker 4: And he said this will be done intentionally so.
19:28
Speaker 2: That you get a lot of really crazy conspiracy theories,
19:31
Speaker 2: you know, the Egyptian planes and the French foreignly whatever
19:34
Speaker 2: like all that stuff, and then it sort of discredits
19:37
Speaker 2: other avenues that you might pursue outside of the official narrative,
19:42
Speaker 2: because then you look like ah, I have the official
19:44
Speaker 2: narrative seems more credible than whatever these crazy people are
19:46
Speaker 2: on about over here. So he identifies that as a
19:51
Speaker 2: tactic in connection with these two events, in particular Butler
19:55
Speaker 2: and then Charlie Kirk's assassination. And yeah, I mean the
19:58
Speaker 2: Butler thing is legitimately wild because here you have, you know,
20:02
Speaker 2: the the guy who they tried was you know, almost
20:06
Speaker 2: killed in Butler, Pennsylvania. You would think that there would
20:09
Speaker 2: be a fullsome look, okay, who is this guy and
20:11
Speaker 2: where did he come from? What were his motivations? And
20:14
Speaker 2: that was also shut down, and they did very similar
20:16
Speaker 2: to that Epstein files, Like now we looked into it.
20:19
Speaker 4: Nothing to see here. We're all moving on exactly.
20:21
Speaker 3: And that's the point where look again, I would not
20:24
Speaker 3: say any of this if he hadn't said it.
20:25
Speaker 1: I really wouldn't. Yeah, we didn't do.
20:27
Speaker 2: A lot of it in any Butler, you know, speculation
20:30
Speaker 2: or whatever.
20:30
Speaker 3: Much seems believable. Crazy guy does research wants to shoot Trump.
20:34
Speaker 3: I mean, okay, you know it makes sense. It's John Hinckley, right,
20:37
Speaker 3: you've seen it before. Yeah, it's not a crazy situation.
20:39
Speaker 2: Country chock full of guns and mentally unstable people.
20:42
Speaker 4: Can get shot off.
20:43
Speaker 3: Well, I mean literally, look at the guy, right, he's
20:45
Speaker 3: a loser, and so all right, I believe it. But
20:47
Speaker 3: then the National counter Terrorism Director or NCTC director Odie
20:52
Speaker 3: and I high security clearance in the world, exits the
20:54
Speaker 3: government and starts talking about it in the context of
20:57
Speaker 3: Trump's behavior Visa VI Israel, and you're like, holy shit, man,
21:01
Speaker 3: I mean he is drawing in conclusion, which look, he
21:03
Speaker 3: could be.
21:03
Speaker 1: Wrong, but he's got a lot more information than I do.
21:06
Speaker 3: And then he draws the Charlie Kirk situation into that
21:08
Speaker 3: as well, and he's like, maybe he feels like he's
21:10
Speaker 3: at threat.
21:11
Speaker 1: You know.
21:11
Speaker 3: Another section I don't know if you noticed, was him
21:13
Speaker 3: and Tucker talking about breaches in Trump's security.
21:16
Speaker 1: So what you know, I hadn't thought about this.
21:18
Speaker 3: They talked about Code Pink, you know, being at a
21:21
Speaker 3: dinner and we should actually ask me.
21:23
Speaker 1: We should just call her an asker.
21:24
Speaker 3: Benjamin, because they were like, look to us, that seemed
21:28
Speaker 3: like a huge crack in the president's security.
21:31
Speaker 2: Just to remind people who may have forgotten, you know,
21:33
Speaker 2: Trump showed up to have dinner at a local restaurant
21:36
Speaker 2: and Code Pink activists that had gotten a heads up
21:39
Speaker 2: that he was going to be going there, and they were.
21:42
Speaker 4: They were inside of.
21:43
Speaker 1: The restaurant it was coming.
21:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, so this was you know, this was pre planned.
21:47
Speaker 2: This wasn't just like, oh my god, there's the motorcade,
21:49
Speaker 2: let's go. This was a pre planned protest, which is
21:52
Speaker 2: their right to do. But for the president's security, how
21:56
Speaker 2: that raises obviously raises crazy questions about how do they
22:00
Speaker 2: get access to this information? And then he mentioned another
22:03
Speaker 2: time when there was someone who was apparently just like
22:06
Speaker 2: a fan, but who wanted a handshake and was able
22:09
Speaker 2: to get like, you know, to anticipate where Trump was
22:12
Speaker 2: going to be and be able to get right at
22:13
Speaker 2: him to get this handshake. Well, you know it's a supporter.
22:16
Speaker 2: So no, there's no harm that was done. But again,
22:20
Speaker 2: this is a massive security breach. So he intentionally raises
22:23
Speaker 2: those two things as.
22:24
Speaker 3: Like, what is going I'm looking at this now. This
22:26
Speaker 3: is just from twenty fifteen. NYPD suspends detective who's snuck
22:29
Speaker 3: into the Ryder Cup pretending to be on Trump's security detail.
22:32
Speaker 3: I'll be honest, I mean both of these are crazy.
22:34
Speaker 3: I was part of the White House Press Corps and
22:36
Speaker 3: I had to go to restaurants when Trump would go dine,
22:38
Speaker 3: we didn't even know where he was going. They just said,
22:40
Speaker 3: Trump is on his way to a restaurant. Really, okay,
22:42
Speaker 3: you know, I mean we could assume we thought he
22:43
Speaker 3: usually it's the Trump's Steakhouse, so that's what we think,
22:46
Speaker 3: but we didn't know. So I was literally in the
22:48
Speaker 3: van behind the motorcate and I didn't know where I
22:51
Speaker 3: was going. For context, so how do other people know
22:54
Speaker 3: where he's going? Who tipped him off? What they're point
22:56
Speaker 3: I guess what they're saying is that in all of
22:58
Speaker 3: these they're pointing to various different like warnings and look,
23:02
Speaker 3: I get it. This sounds like something out of a novel,
23:05
Speaker 3: like some Tom Clancy level nonsense. But he seems to
23:09
Speaker 3: believe it's real. And if he does, then maybe I
23:12
Speaker 3: should and maybe all of you should. So yeah, wow,
23:15
Speaker 3: I just don't know. I mean, I will say for Joe,
23:18
Speaker 3: it's pretty clear he wants to He is desperate try
23:22
Speaker 3: and get a message to Trump the or being controlled
23:23
Speaker 3: by these reelies, and he's like begging him for framp
23:26
Speaker 3: and to try to get out of this. That seems
23:28
Speaker 3: to be his main goal in resigning. He said at
23:30
Speaker 3: the end, you hold the cards. But I do think
23:32
Speaker 3: it's like a desperate cry for help at the end
23:34
Speaker 3: that letter saying at the end you have the cards.
23:38
Speaker 3: He's trying to like shake, He's like, you have the cards,
23:40
Speaker 3: like you're in control.
23:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's scary. Yeah.
23:43
Speaker 2: Well, the last thing I'll say about it is, you know,
23:46
Speaker 2: I raised this immediately and I said something similar about Tucker,
23:50
Speaker 2: like I understand. First of all, I just want to
23:53
Speaker 2: say I really appreciate that. I think it takes a
23:55
Speaker 2: lot of courage to resign and to speak out in
23:58
Speaker 2: this way, and his life is about to be a
24:00
Speaker 2: bended if it's not already. Soger immediately called it, and
24:03
Speaker 2: sure enough, he's under investigation, you know, threatened with indictment.
24:07
Speaker 2: They're gonna do what they can to destroy this man.
24:08
Speaker 2: I don't think there's any doubt about that, And so
24:10
Speaker 2: we should all be grateful to him for coming forward
24:13
Speaker 2: and you know, making his concerns known.
24:15
Speaker 4: I think tactically he's decided.
24:17
Speaker 2: If you listen to this interview with Tucker, like he
24:20
Speaker 2: is very almost worshipful of Trump. Only Trump can give
24:23
Speaker 2: usend his negotiating skills, and he's the whole reason why
24:26
Speaker 2: we had her on at the table. And of course
24:27
Speaker 2: I'm listening to this and going like, this is the
24:29
Speaker 2: same man who tore up the nuclear deal to come
24:32
Speaker 2: in with so come on, right, But in any case,
24:34
Speaker 2: clearly this is his tactic. But he thinks if he's
24:38
Speaker 2: just sufficiently praise full of Trump and tries to you know,
24:42
Speaker 2: word things properly so that his fragile ego isn't hurt
24:45
Speaker 2: and he gets the message in that he's being controlled
24:47
Speaker 2: and it's really not his fault, and he could get
24:49
Speaker 2: that maybe that's the way to have influence. And I
24:52
Speaker 2: just I think that ship has sailed. I think at
24:54
Speaker 2: this point, you know, your best your best weapon right
24:59
Speaker 2: now in this fight is the full unvarnished truth. And
25:04
Speaker 2: because there continues to be very clearly a level of,
25:08
Speaker 2: you know, a layer here of I don't want to
25:11
Speaker 2: say deception because that's too strong of a word. But
25:14
Speaker 2: he's holding back that criticism of Trump because he's trying
25:18
Speaker 2: to play this game of persuading Trump and it's still
25:21
Speaker 2: sort of an inside game. It does take them away
25:24
Speaker 2: from the power of his testimony, because if he's sort
25:28
Speaker 2: of choosing his words and being you know, not fully
25:31
Speaker 2: forthcoming in that regard, then of course it naturally raises
25:35
Speaker 2: questions for people. Okay, well, if you're not being totally
25:37
Speaker 2: upfront about the guy who actually got us into this war,
25:40
Speaker 2: then how can we trust that you're being truly upfront
25:43
Speaker 2: about these other extraordinary claims that you're making in this interview.
25:47
Speaker 2: So that just would be that would be my view
25:50
Speaker 2: is you know, I understand you're trying to preserve Trump's
25:53
Speaker 2: ego so that maybe he'll hear this message. I understand,
25:56
Speaker 2: you know, potentially you want to run for or you
25:58
Speaker 2: want to you know, maintain support in credibility with the
26:01
Speaker 2: Trump base, and Trump is like a god, their cold
26:04
Speaker 2: leader or whatever. So that's tricky to walk walk that
26:07
Speaker 2: line as well. But I think the most powerful thing
26:10
Speaker 2: you can do right now is just be fully, fully truthful.
26:14
Speaker 2: And yes, the Israelis have wanted this war. They have
26:17
Speaker 2: wanted this war for a long time. They've tried to
26:19
Speaker 2: manipulate a lot of presidents into this war. But this
26:22
Speaker 2: president is the one who said yes. And this president
26:26
Speaker 2: is the one who shut you out after the Twelve
26:29
Speaker 2: Day War and did not want to hear the other
26:31
Speaker 2: side anymore. This president is the one who took one
26:34
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty million dollars from Miriam Mandelson. This president
26:39
Speaker 2: is the one who created a culture of sycophancy around
26:42
Speaker 2: him so that you know, reportedly, even you know General Kine,
26:46
Speaker 2: who he handpicked, et cetera, didn't feel comfortable enough really
26:50
Speaker 2: telling him and sort of use these proxies or hinted
26:53
Speaker 2: at what trouble could come with the Iran war. Trump
26:57
Speaker 2: is responsible here. He is not some victim of happenstance.
27:01
Speaker 2: He is not some poor baby lamb who had no
27:04
Speaker 2: idea and just got walked into this thing and there
27:07
Speaker 2: was nothing he could do. He is the most powerful
27:10
Speaker 2: man on the planet. He is the president of a
27:12
Speaker 2: nuclear armed superpower. And ultimately, yes, the Israelis were doing
27:17
Speaker 2: what the Israelis have.
27:18
Speaker 4: Long been doing.
27:19
Speaker 2: The responsibility lies with him, and I think that until
27:23
Speaker 2: there's full candor on that point, it will somewhat diminish
27:27
Speaker 2: the power of the rest of the testimony here, which
27:29
Speaker 2: is so vitally important as we face down what exactly
27:33
Speaker 2: this war.
27:33
Speaker 4: Is going on.
27:33
Speaker 3: That's fair, We'll see. I'll definitely ask him about some
27:36
Speaker 3: of this, as I said. Currently scheduled to interview him
27:39
Speaker 3: tomorrow and premium subscribers you can submit some questions and
27:43
Speaker 3: we'll maybe pick a few of them to ask Joe Kent. Again,
27:47
Speaker 3: it's tentative. Who knows he literally could be indicted by
27:50
Speaker 3: the Trump administration hit with a gag order. But for
27:52
Speaker 3: now that's your current plan. Okay, we've got Robert Pape
27:55
Speaker 3: standing by Professor Pape.
27:57
Speaker 1: Let's get to it.
28:00
Speaker 2: So for more on the escalation trap that Trump has
28:03
Speaker 2: gotten caught in in the Iran war, we are fortunate
28:06
Speaker 2: to be joined again by Professor Robert Pape, Professor political
28:09
Speaker 2: Science at University of Chicago.
28:11
Speaker 4: Great to see against ourct user.
28:13
Speaker 8: Thanks for having me.
28:14
Speaker 4: Yeah, of course.
28:14
Speaker 2: So before we jump in, I understand you're having a
28:17
Speaker 2: briefing on this phase of the escalation trap.
28:19
Speaker 4: Just give people the details so that they can learn
28:21
Speaker 4: as much as possible about your framework.
28:24
Speaker 8: Yes, my substack is called the Escalation Trap. I started
28:29
Speaker 8: it a week before the war to lay out all
28:31
Speaker 8: the stages of what was coming, and I'm sorry to
28:35
Speaker 8: say we are right on track. We're moving from stage one,
28:38
Speaker 8: we're now deep into stage two, and we'll be moving
28:42
Speaker 8: likely to stage three on Sunday. You can join my
28:46
Speaker 8: live briefing on substack. It will be it will start
28:50
Speaker 8: at four pm Central time five pm Eastern. This will
28:54
Speaker 8: be an hour. You'll be able to put questions in
28:57
Speaker 8: the chat. I will be able to respond, and then
29:00
Speaker 8: I will send answers to selective questions the next day
29:04
Speaker 8: to everybody who joined. So this is a very good
29:07
Speaker 8: way to stay ahead. This isn't just reacting.
29:10
Speaker 2: We're explaining what to expect, right, and we will make
29:13
Speaker 2: sure to put the link in our description here as
29:16
Speaker 2: well so people can easily locate that. So we've been
29:18
Speaker 2: talking in the show about you know, extraordinary level of
29:21
Speaker 2: escalation here with the Israeli seemingly with the US's ascent
29:24
Speaker 2: striking the South pars oil field in Iran, Iran predictably
29:29
Speaker 2: in response struck significant blows to oil infrastructure throughout the region.
29:34
Speaker 2: How do these actions fit into your Frameworkser?
29:38
Speaker 8: Well, they fit actually quite tightly. And our community, the
29:42
Speaker 8: listeners we had before I understand a million views, have
29:45
Speaker 8: been be able to follow things even before they happen.
29:49
Speaker 8: So the escalation trap starts with stage one, the smart
29:53
Speaker 8: bombs that hit targets, destroy targets, kill leaders, but don't
29:58
Speaker 8: achieve the strategic objectives. Number one, they did not weaken
30:04
Speaker 8: the regime topple the regime. They didn't even move the
30:08
Speaker 8: regime to aduvish position. The regime is more hawkish, more
30:12
Speaker 8: dangerous now than ever because the new leaders are just
30:16
Speaker 8: desperate to attack more. And also the power of Iran
30:21
Speaker 8: has grown. So Iran in the last nineteen days has
30:24
Speaker 8: grown from controlling four percent of the world's oil to
30:28
Speaker 8: now twenty percent of the world's oil. In fact, in
30:31
Speaker 8: the last nineteen days, Iran has been shipping its oil out.
30:35
Speaker 8: It's made somewhere around a billion and a half dollars.
30:39
Speaker 8: So think about that, all that money to rebuild everything,
30:42
Speaker 8: and it's in Chinese banks, so we can't get it out.
30:46
Speaker 8: And now we also have the physicle material, that nuclear material.
30:50
Speaker 8: Now we're in stage two, though they've lashed back. I
30:53
Speaker 8: call that horizontal escalation. And this is what's been going
30:57
Speaker 8: on now for weeks, and it's not spasmodic. They're not
31:00
Speaker 8: running out of AMMO. You see big block blasts yesterday
31:06
Speaker 8: by Iran, and now the price of oil here is soaring,
31:10
Speaker 8: So we're in stage two. Very deeply. I've been explaining
31:14
Speaker 8: all this ahead of the time all the way through,
31:17
Speaker 8: and we're in Iran that corizono escalation. It's economic warfare.
31:22
Speaker 8: It's going after the economic pillars of the Gulf States
31:27
Speaker 8: and the world, especially America of course, and also the
31:31
Speaker 8: political pillars. And this is a long war strategy and
31:36
Speaker 8: asymmetric strategy. They are not going toe to toe with
31:41
Speaker 8: us in conventional battles. That's why you can take the
31:44
Speaker 8: Iranian Navy off the table and it just doesn't matter. Okay,
31:48
Speaker 8: what's going on is they are not losing. They are
31:51
Speaker 8: gaining power in stage two, and that is sucking us
31:56
Speaker 8: toward stage three. We're not there yet. That's the ground
32:00
Speaker 8: forest options that the Marines are about seven ten days away,
32:05
Speaker 8: But middle of next week there's a good chance we'll
32:07
Speaker 8: be on the cusp of major decisions here to cross
32:10
Speaker 8: that rubicon of stage three. That's what I'm going to
32:13
Speaker 8: talk about layout in detail on Sunday. This has really
32:18
Speaker 8: become an escalation trap that's become a strategic disaster for
32:25
Speaker 8: the United States, for the administration for sure, but also
32:29
Speaker 8: now for the world.
32:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, professor, let's go ahead, and guys, let's put F
32:33
Speaker 3: five up there on the screen, just again, fitting into
32:37
Speaker 3: your framework. They say Trump has not made up his
32:40
Speaker 3: mind on sending Americans into Iran to seize nuclear material.
32:44
Speaker 3: This also apparently applies to any sort of operation to
32:48
Speaker 3: control the Straits of Hormuz. Again, as I understand that
32:51
Speaker 3: that is stage three in your framework, you seem to
32:54
Speaker 3: think it's inevitable that some sort of ground force operation happens.
32:57
Speaker 1: Give us your reasoning as to watch.
32:59
Speaker 8: Yeah me. Let me also be precise about estimates. So
33:03
Speaker 8: I don't have a crystal ball. I do risk assessment.
33:06
Speaker 8: I would say that when used, I would use the
33:09
Speaker 8: term inevitable. But what I mean is seventy five percent likely.
33:13
Speaker 8: So I don't think it's quite one hundred percent. Because
33:15
Speaker 8: we live in the real world. Something could change. But
33:18
Speaker 8: we are heading in this direction, and every step of
33:22
Speaker 8: the escalation trap has been seventy five percent likely, and
33:25
Speaker 8: it has come to be. So this is now these
33:29
Speaker 8: options here for President Trump. He needs time. The reason
33:33
Speaker 8: that he's talking well, I'm not quite sure here or
33:36
Speaker 8: not quite sure there, is because he needs time to
33:39
Speaker 8: get those marines there. He's basically killing time while he's
33:42
Speaker 8: waiting for the actual physical options to be available to him.
33:47
Speaker 8: There's probably also preparations happening, not just with the twenty
33:50
Speaker 8: five hundred marines that are moving from Japan. That takes
33:53
Speaker 8: about eighteen days three or so. That's why the timeframe
33:57
Speaker 8: we can be fairly precise. But also the eighty second
34:01
Speaker 8: Airborne is likely preparing as well, because they canceled some
34:06
Speaker 8: of their training about ten days ago, and that is
34:09
Speaker 8: likely because that's also an option. And what I'm going
34:12
Speaker 8: to be explaining with maps and all this and so
34:14
Speaker 8: forth on Sunday is what we're talking about, and I
34:17
Speaker 8: would describe this as limited territorial control options also to
34:22
Speaker 8: be precise. They're not probably going to be going to Tehran.
34:26
Speaker 8: That's probably not what we're talking about. And I've been
34:29
Speaker 8: saying even before the war started that Stage three would
34:34
Speaker 8: be limited territorial control cars, coastal areas, essefon. Well, we're
34:40
Speaker 8: going to go into all of that because we're now
34:43
Speaker 8: on the cusp of that, and by early next week
34:46
Speaker 8: this is going to be front and center in front
34:48
Speaker 8: of President Trump. And I've advised every White House from
34:52
Speaker 8: two thousand and one to twenty twenty four, I realize
34:55
Speaker 8: everybody is trying to read President Trump's mind. This is
35:00
Speaker 8: it's just simply a mistake, and I realized Trump is mercurial.
35:04
Speaker 8: But it's not just that presidents don't decide until they decide.
35:11
Speaker 8: They really need to understand this that we're in the
35:13
Speaker 8: middle of a real war here. This is not some
35:16
Speaker 8: technical military operation that they've pre planned and he's got
35:21
Speaker 8: pre set dates for go codes. These are really he's
35:24
Speaker 8: on the horns of some very very major dilemmas here.
35:28
Speaker 8: And if he crosses this rubicon, my goodness, we could
35:31
Speaker 8: be seeing when that this is where the Vietnam analogy
35:35
Speaker 8: will kick in big time. So so far it's been
35:38
Speaker 8: kas of a you hear my analogies, Well, they're going
35:42
Speaker 8: to start to change if we cross this rubicon, because
35:46
Speaker 8: we're going to be in a new set of escalation dynamics.
35:50
Speaker 8: And I'm also sorry to say, so far I've only
35:53
Speaker 8: told the world about stage one, two, and three. There
35:57
Speaker 8: is four and five if this keeps going, you see,
36:00
Speaker 8: so we're not just because we're at stage three, does
36:03
Speaker 8: that mean we've topped out of the risk.
36:06
Speaker 2: So let's talk a little bit more specifically about the
36:09
Speaker 2: straight of horn moves, which of course has become a
36:11
Speaker 2: central question and aim, frankly, of this war.
36:14
Speaker 4: We can put F one up on the screen.
36:16
Speaker 2: So reportedly the US use some of its new five
36:19
Speaker 2: thousand pounds bunker buster bombs to hit Iranian anti ship
36:23
Speaker 2: missile sites right along the coast there, so that was significant.
36:29
Speaker 2: I also just wanted to put F three if we
36:31
Speaker 2: can't up on the screen, here, guys, pictures of what
36:33
Speaker 2: this area looks like. I'm told that in the military
36:37
Speaker 2: the geography matters here a lot. So you can see
36:40
Speaker 2: these sort of sheer cliffs along the side of the
36:43
Speaker 2: Strait of horror moves, and so I was wondering if
36:45
Speaker 2: you could break down for us, you know, why is
36:47
Speaker 2: this such a difficult problem for the US to solve,
36:50
Speaker 2: and why is it that all of our allies effectively
36:53
Speaker 2: at this point said listen, you got yourself into this mess.
36:56
Speaker 2: Good luck getting out of it. You know, we wish
36:59
Speaker 2: you well, but we're not going to send our military
37:02
Speaker 2: assets into the region's directlessest.
37:04
Speaker 8: Yeah, that was fantastic those pictures. My goodness, I'm so
37:09
Speaker 8: glad to be on with you. A very few other
37:12
Speaker 8: people are are really taking this so seriously to explain
37:16
Speaker 8: to the world what's going on, and also just so
37:19
Speaker 8: people know, just a few days ago. On my sub stack,
37:21
Speaker 8: I put out the economic battlefield, and point one here
37:25
Speaker 8: is the straight of horn Moves is becoming the center
37:29
Speaker 8: of gravity. In stage two, it is now the center
37:33
Speaker 8: of gravity because of all the leverage that Iran is
37:37
Speaker 8: gaining from controlling the strait of horn Moves. And I've
37:41
Speaker 8: already explained that in detail. But the geography here, in
37:46
Speaker 8: order to take territory with ground forces, the offense has
37:52
Speaker 8: to reveal itself. The defense can stay behind cliffs and
37:57
Speaker 8: in nooks and crannies, but if the ground forces are
38:01
Speaker 8: going to take territory, they always have to reveal themselves
38:06
Speaker 8: and be exposed to enemy fire. And the more exposure,
38:11
Speaker 8: the more death essentially, And what you are seeing with
38:14
Speaker 8: those pictures here is tremendous exposure. Now, I am sure
38:19
Speaker 8: I have taught for the US Air Force here for years.
38:23
Speaker 8: Just talked to the US Army War College before the
38:26
Speaker 8: war kicked off a few days before. We have the
38:29
Speaker 8: best professionals in the world. They will do their best
38:32
Speaker 8: to find the best avenues of approach to minimize exposure.
38:37
Speaker 8: That's the issue here, exposure, and to rapidly try to
38:41
Speaker 8: get through the most exposed times. The bottom line though,
38:45
Speaker 8: is you just showed those images. My goodness, gracious, here,
38:49
Speaker 8: this is going to be a challenge, and this is
38:53
Speaker 8: like saving private Ryan territory, so they will try to
38:57
Speaker 8: minimize it. But the fact that the matter is the
39:01
Speaker 8: bad guys are gonna know what the best approaches are too.
39:04
Speaker 8: Remember this is their home turf, so this isn't just
39:07
Speaker 8: they have the home field advantage for three points in
39:10
Speaker 8: an NFL football game. They really know the best approaches,
39:14
Speaker 8: and they've known that for decades. So the odds are there,
39:18
Speaker 8: gonna be booby traps, Are there, gonna be land mines?
39:20
Speaker 8: Are there, gonna be X's and y's here, are there
39:23
Speaker 8: gonna be surprised? Now, we may have some surprises of
39:26
Speaker 8: our own. I'm not saying we don't have things in
39:28
Speaker 8: our toolkit. I'm just pointing out that once we cross
39:31
Speaker 8: into phase three, this is now at the tactical level.
39:35
Speaker 8: So we've had the tactical advance. I'll be explaining this,
39:38
Speaker 8: we've had the tactical advantage on our side. Once we
39:43
Speaker 8: go to stage three, the tactical advantage is likely to
39:47
Speaker 8: start shifting to the bag to Iran as well. And
39:51
Speaker 8: that is what we're talking about. With the exposure. And
39:55
Speaker 8: it's not because we're dumkoffs. That's not the issue. We've
39:58
Speaker 8: got the best in the rightist here, and nonetheless that's
40:04
Speaker 8: saving Private Ryan is a good movie to watch this weekend,
40:07
Speaker 8: just the opening ten.
40:08
Speaker 1: Minutes or Gallipoli right, or really.
40:12
Speaker 8: Exactly I was trying to save that. You guys are
40:15
Speaker 8: telling you, this is really unbelievable how well you have
40:19
Speaker 8: done this because you're getting to the depth. A lot
40:22
Speaker 8: of others want to just touch the concepts and others
40:25
Speaker 8: are using and the concepts are spreading like wildfire, by
40:28
Speaker 8: the way, but you're going and allowing the to understand.
40:33
Speaker 8: And I'm just so appreciative of this. This is what
40:36
Speaker 8: I started the substack to do. It's not just to
40:39
Speaker 8: have a word or viewers. It's to actually be able
40:42
Speaker 8: to educate because we're so hungry for understanding and we
40:47
Speaker 8: can actually do it well.
40:49
Speaker 1: It's because of people like you.
40:50
Speaker 3: We also wanted to put F one please up there
40:53
Speaker 3: on the screen, especially giving your air power expertise, so
40:56
Speaker 3: curious for your reaction here, the United States used it's
41:00
Speaker 3: new five thousand pound bunker buster bombs to hit these
41:05
Speaker 3: Iranian anti ship missile sites. This seems very consistent ser
41:09
Speaker 3: with your framework about the smart bomb trap and the
41:13
Speaker 3: I believe you know, the intelligence around this would be well,
41:16
Speaker 3: if we remove this, then we might have some sort
41:19
Speaker 3: of successful invasion, some sort of successful you know, ability
41:23
Speaker 3: to move ships through the straits of horn moves. But
41:26
Speaker 3: we've learned because of your work and your studying, that
41:29
Speaker 3: it's almost impossible to destroy all enemy capability.
41:32
Speaker 1: That's right.
41:32
Speaker 8: So what this tells me is several things. So number one,
41:36
Speaker 8: that five thousand pound is a bunker buster bomb. It's
41:39
Speaker 8: called it is designed to blow up underground bunkers that
41:44
Speaker 8: are about twenty thirty feet underground with concrete, and it
41:48
Speaker 8: very likely did that in this case. Number Two, though
41:52
Speaker 8: they're going after anti ship missiles now so far Iran
41:55
Speaker 8: is not fired as far as I know, a single
41:57
Speaker 8: anti ship missile here, and they have many hundreds of these.
42:03
Speaker 8: And these are our ships. When they come forward on
42:07
Speaker 8: open water, are essentially giant metal that absorb attack. Because
42:15
Speaker 8: they're out in the water, there's not much collater, there's
42:18
Speaker 8: not much to confuse the targeting mechanisms and so forth.
42:22
Speaker 8: So what this tells me is we are getting ready
42:24
Speaker 8: to move ships here and our amphibious ships through the
42:29
Speaker 8: straits of horror Mooves. Number three, however, is the Iranians
42:33
Speaker 8: likely have known that any fixed bunker is something that
42:38
Speaker 8: we can find and kill. So the question here is
42:42
Speaker 8: do we have any intel at all that there was
42:44
Speaker 8: any anti ship? The bunker was clearly there, but what
42:48
Speaker 8: about the actual anti ship missiles? This is And then
42:51
Speaker 8: the fourth thing is the mountains. So one of the
42:54
Speaker 8: things that you could show on the straight of hor
42:56
Speaker 8: Moos on the other side of Iran, on Iran side
42:59
Speaker 8: from Dubai is the large mountain range that's right across
43:05
Speaker 8: from Uae and Dubai that goes on for many many
43:09
Speaker 8: miles on the coast here, and what you will see
43:13
Speaker 8: is perfect terrain for crevices and so forth. So even
43:18
Speaker 8: if we know exactly where pinpointing it is, oh my goodness,
43:22
Speaker 8: knocking all of that out and they only need to
43:25
Speaker 8: score one hit on one of our ships. So just
43:30
Speaker 8: think about it for a moment. We're gonna have hundreds
43:32
Speaker 8: of folks, men and women on these ships, sitting ducks,
43:37
Speaker 8: and they're going through the gauntlet, and we may knock
43:41
Speaker 8: out ninety eight percent of what's coming at them. But
43:44
Speaker 8: they only need to have one, maybe two hits, and
43:46
Speaker 8: right away you've got dozens, if not hundreds dead, and
43:50
Speaker 8: they're dead in the water. You see what I mean.
43:53
Speaker 8: There could be more coming at them there, and then
43:55
Speaker 8: how do you rescue them? So this really is we
43:59
Speaker 8: may not have the tactical disaster. I can't predict that exactly,
44:02
Speaker 8: of course, but you're just up against the situation here
44:06
Speaker 8: where the other side only needs a handful of things
44:09
Speaker 8: to go right for them, they can have ninety five
44:12
Speaker 8: percent of everything go wrong. And this looks like you're
44:16
Speaker 8: talking right. This looks like this World War One disaster
44:19
Speaker 8: called Gallipoli, which just persuaded the world that there was anyway.
44:24
Speaker 8: So this that was excellent though, you really set it
44:26
Speaker 8: up well.
44:26
Speaker 1: Well, thank you very much, sir, We really appreciate you.
44:29
Speaker 2: Anything else first, well, I was just going to ask
44:31
Speaker 2: for a little bit of a preview you mentioned, you know,
44:34
Speaker 2: you go on to stage four and stage five, if
44:36
Speaker 2: you want to give us just a little bit of
44:37
Speaker 2: a glimpse.
44:38
Speaker 8: Of we're gonna wait on that. I'm sorry to say,
44:40
Speaker 8: I think I'm scared forgiven. I'm only doing it because
44:44
Speaker 8: I'm not doing it to just say, the sky is falling.
44:49
Speaker 8: I'm doing this in advance of time when the horizon
44:52
Speaker 8: is really there, so I really would would I there
44:56
Speaker 8: is more to say, but we will unfold it in
44:59
Speaker 8: advance a few weeks in advance. Here, we're going to
45:03
Speaker 8: keep up that that idea, but we're not going to
45:06
Speaker 8: keep them running it so that we have all these
45:08
Speaker 8: nightmare scenarios and so forth and so on, because again,
45:11
Speaker 8: I want to do it as risk assessment as we
45:14
Speaker 8: go forward. And I think that's really what I'm seeing
45:18
Speaker 8: the uh, the audience is really valuing. That's what I'm
45:21
Speaker 8: I'm getting in the feedback.
45:23
Speaker 2: And so yeah, well we hope that if unfortunately we
45:27
Speaker 2: end up in those phases, that you will rejoin and I'll.
45:29
Speaker 8: Oh, my goodness, gracious, I would be you invite me.
45:33
Speaker 8: We should do this once a week. I mean, my goodness,
45:35
Speaker 8: this is just absolutely Thursday this time. You got me.
45:39
Speaker 8: Just keep that in the invites.
45:41
Speaker 3: Okay, thank you, professor pay I so desperately wish I
45:44
Speaker 3: had a professor like you in college.
45:46
Speaker 8: Well that's really quite you haven't been graded by me.
45:51
Speaker 8: Wait till you get to the grading part of the
45:54
Speaker 8: not so easy to get the a's.
45:56
Speaker 1: Necessarily it would have been worth Thank you very much, sir.
45:59
Speaker 1: We appreciate Okay, bye bye, Thank you guys so much
46:03
Speaker 1: for watching. We appreciate you. As I said, we're gonna have.
46:06
Speaker 3: This one of those questions you guys can submit if
46:07
Speaker 3: you want, for the Joe Ken interview, which should be
46:09
Speaker 3: happening tomorrow. We'll see you all later, and there will
46:11
Speaker 3: still be a Friday show. Yeah, don't worry. Lots of
46:13
Speaker 3: content for everyone tomorrow.
46:14
Speaker 1: We'll see you later.