Latest / Simply Bitcoin / BILLIONS Are Flowing Into Bitcoin… So Why Is the Price Stuck? | EP 1283
Transcript
- 0:00Billions of dollars is flowing into Bitcoin, but why is the
- 0:03price not rallying? Bitcoin looks stuck at $110,000.
- 0:10We've got billionaires, bankers and Bitcoin treasury companies
- 0:15accumulating more than 500,000 Bitcoin in the past 12 months.
- 0:20And everybody's kind of sitting back and scratching their head a
- 0:23little bit and asking themselves the question, why is the price
- 0:26of Bitcoin not rallying? What we know for sure is that
- 0:32hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin is leaving the exchanges.
- 0:35We can see that very clearly. The supply suffocation, it's
- 0:40accelerating. We're seeing more and more
- 0:42Bitcoin leave the exchanges. We're seeing more and more
- 0:45billionaires adopt Bitcoin, but nobody knows what's happening.
- 0:49Everybody's saying, is it paper Bitcoin?
- 0:52Are exchanges suppressing the price of Bitcoin?
- 0:56Or is maybe something funky happening in the options market
- 1:00and the derivatives market that is affecting the price?
- 1:04There's a lot of questions, there's a lot of theories, but
- 1:07today I want to explore what exactly is affecting the price
- 1:11of Bitcoin with my always optimistic Co host Opti.
- 1:16And we've got, is it two time or three time bookseller Brian
- 1:21Demint. Gentlemen, what are your
- 1:23thoughts on this whole idea of paper Bitcoin?
- 1:27Let's pass it to Brian. Brian, you hit this one.
- 1:29Yeah. Well, yes.
- 1:30So Luke's spilling the beans here.
- 1:32But yeah, we got we got the third book on the way.
- 1:34So yes, it is three time author, but that's that's going to be in
- 1:37a couple months here. Children's book, actually not a
- 1:40not a Bitcoin related book. It has some scarcity things, but
- 1:43we'll we'll get into that another time.
- 1:45But as far as what's going on, there's, there's a term in
- 1:48physics called potential energy when a rubber band is stretched
- 1:53or a balloon. You, you blow up a balloon
- 1:55there. There's this point at which
- 1:57you're, you're wondering why is the balloon not bursting?
- 2:00My kids hate when I blow up balloons because they know I
- 2:03like to pop them in their face 'cause it's hilarious as a
- 2:05father to see your kids just just grimacing at what's about
- 2:09to happen. The balloon always takes way
- 2:12longer for it to burst. Elasticity means that not every
- 2:16balloon bursts at the exact same point.
- 2:18So we think about Bitcoin in that regard.
- 2:21We remember back to past cycles. We remember 2021 or 2017 and we
- 2:25say, you know what, when, when the news was hitting like this
- 2:28or, or much smaller news, you know, we in, in 2017, it was the
- 2:32Chicago Merchantile Exchange was going to have Futures Trading or
- 2:36whatever it was. I, I forget that what that
- 2:38popped off on, on the, the CME back in 2017, but that was what
- 2:42prompted the bull run was like, wow, you know, regulatory
- 2:46clarity is coming around some of these instruments and that was
- 2:50enough for things to pop off. We're in a completely different
- 2:53thing. The elasticity of this balloon
- 2:55is just different. We have, we have different pools
- 2:58of capital. We have, we have, we have a
- 2:59higher supply of Bitcoin than we did a few years ago.
- 3:02And there's, there's a, a meaningful amount of Bitcoin
- 3:06that is probably being sold by whales because now whales can,
- 3:10can offload a little bit of their Bitcoin.
- 3:12It doesn't necessarily mean that they're, they're forgoing their
- 3:15entire stack, But a whale who has 1000 Bitcoin can sell 50
- 3:20Bitcoin or 20 Bitcoin. And that's a meaningful amount
- 3:22of buying power for them in the economy.
- 3:24So we have to keep in mind that one of these things happen.
- 3:27Will a whale that has 1000 Bitcoin sell more than you know
- 3:32his fifty Bitcoin or 100 Bitcoin?
- 3:34No, that, that actually stops at some point those OG whales will
- 3:37stop being providing liquidity for the over the counter market.
- 3:43And, and the, the thing that really makes the, the balloon
- 3:46pop and, and by the balloon popping or the rubber band
- 3:49stretching and and cracking, what, what, what I mean by that
- 3:52is not that the market breaks. I mean that that price explosion
- 3:55happens. The, the, the thing that causes
- 3:58that to happen is when real retail buyers like you and I are
- 4:01we, we, we FOMO so hard or not even you and I, but it's, it's
- 4:05our friends. It's that second layer of, of
- 4:07retail adoption. It's when they hit the exchanges
- 4:11because they're not, they're not timing their buys.
- 4:14They're not trying to buy a ton of Bitcoin and do it in a way
- 4:18that doesn't affect the price. When your friends come on board,
- 4:21they just want to smash buy Bitcoin.
- 4:23And that on the exchanges is what prompts these really high
- 4:27escalations in price. So the balloon is filling up.
- 4:30We're all standing around waiting for it to pop in our
- 4:32face. Don't worry, it's going to
- 4:34happen. We we have this timidity about
- 4:36it, but the potential energy that's building up in Bitcoin is
- 4:39very, very real and we're going to reach a critical mass.
- 4:42It just takes a bit of time for that to happen.
- 4:47I love that idea of elasticity. I hope I said that word
- 4:51correctly, but that's exactly what it's like.
- 4:53You're pulling back that rubber band, and most people only start
- 4:57paying attention to Bitcoin when that thing pops or when the
- 5:00beach ball under the water comes back above the water.
- 5:02We're all seeing it right now. We're seeing all of the
- 5:05fundamentals get more and more bullish every single day.
- 5:08We're watching bitcoins leave the OTC desks, billionaires
- 5:11buying Bitcoin, a surge of public companies sticking
- 5:14Bitcoin on the balance sheet, and the bitcoiners who are
- 5:17paying attention to all of these fundamentals and news headlines.
- 5:21We're just waiting for the inevitable.
- 5:23And I think it's really interesting.
- 5:25Today we've got what? Bitcoin $110,000 and retail
- 5:28isn't even here. Retail search for Bitcoin on
- 5:31Google Trends is at like bear market Lowe's, which is pretty
- 5:34crazy. You mentioned something really
- 5:36else, something else that was really interesting there, Brian,
- 5:39and that was Bitcoin on OTC desks and we pulled that thing
- 5:43up. We've seen about 80% of all the
- 5:45available Bitcoin on OTC desks disappear over the past five
- 5:49years. And again, I'm really you make
- 5:52it again. And something else you said that
- 5:53was really interesting was that the big money buys on these OTC
- 5:57desks. So I'm not surprised that the
- 6:00price hasn't surprised us yet and that beach ball hasn't quite
- 6:05popped out of that water yet and really started surprising
- 6:08everyone yet because there's still about 150,000 Bitcoin left
- 6:13on these OTC desks. And I think when this hits zero,
- 6:17I think that's when things get really interesting again.
- 6:20Who knows when that is going to happen again.
- 6:23We have seen that in 2022 there was about 500,000 Bitcoin on OTC
- 6:28desks. Now there's about 150,000 Opti.
- 6:33What do you think's going to happen when that beach ball pops
- 6:36its head above water? Yeah, I mean this chart right
- 6:38here is pretty crazy. Like I think I've pushed back a
- 6:42little bit on this narrative, Luke.
- 6:44I know we like to say there's price suppression.
- 6:47You know, someones got to be clamping down on the price of
- 6:49Bitcoin right now because it should have been popping right
- 6:52now. I know Niko has even been on
- 6:53here and I was trolling him before the show with Brian like
- 6:55he's he goes through the cycle of like being bullish and then
- 7:00being a perma bear. And I just keep saying like,
- 7:02dude, just wait, like just give it some time.
- 7:05It's gonna RIP by the end of the year.
- 7:07It like it almost has to RIP, right?
- 7:09But when you see this OTC desk chart, one that's been
- 7:12circulating recently, of course, we've all seen the amount of
- 7:15Bitcoin on exchanges that seems to be dwindling, but this OTC
- 7:19desk chart is really interesting.
- 7:21I mean, what is this going back to 2018?
- 7:24It's at the lowest it's ever been, or not ever, but it's at
- 7:27the lowest amount of Bitcoin on an OTC desk since 2018.
- 7:32That's what, 7 years? Like all this is basically
- 7:36saying to me that a certain point, this price has to RIP it
- 7:40like that. No other conclusion comes to my
- 7:42mind than the fact that it has to RIP.
- 7:44Now, I'm not really that big on the idea of Bitcoin prices being
- 7:49manipulated, being suppressed. From all the data that I've been
- 7:53seeing, it just seems like there's more sellers.
- 7:55I know we've brought up the metrics here.
- 7:57A lot of the whales, as Brian was saying, you know, they are
- 8:00kind of, you know, distributing some coins out there.
- 8:02We've seen nation states dump 50,000 plus coins.
- 8:05We still don't know what's going on with the US and China's
- 8:09Bitcoin reserves. They could also be selling
- 8:11Bitcoin. So as much as I like to have a
- 8:16knee jerk reaction and say like, oh, someone's suppressing the
- 8:18price, you know, Larry Fink's here and of course he's going to
- 8:21suppress the price on that same kind of tidbit.
- 8:26It's like that's good for all of us here.
- 8:28We all want cheaper Bitcoin. We all want to get a bigger
- 8:31piece of the pie. So I'm not really too convinced
- 8:34that there is quote, UN quote price suppression of Bitcoin.
- 8:37Yes, we've heard kind of the mechanics of how short markets
- 8:40and futures markets have been working and that can potentially
- 8:43cause some price suppression in the short term, but in the long
- 8:46term, it's bullish. I'm still kind of open to the
- 8:49idea that maybe there's some paper Bitcoin that we aren't
- 8:51aware of. I don't think it's anything on
- 8:54the scale of what happened with FTX where they literally had no
- 8:57Bitcoin and they were selling fake Bitcoin basically to
- 9:01people. So I really just think it's it's
- 9:05more of a timing thing. I think the market just still
- 9:07needs to kind of figure out that, yeah, there isn't that
- 9:10much Bitcoin. The amount of buys.
- 9:12I don't know if you have a chart here, Luke, of the amount of
- 9:15liquidity coming in. But yeah, we do have a lot of
- 9:18these stories of, you know, billion dollar buys for these
- 9:21Bitcoin treasury companies, but we really haven't seen the FOMO
- 9:26craves that we've seen in the past when it comes to people
- 9:29buying Bitcoin just on the open market.
- 9:31So I think I think it's really like a timing thing.
- 9:34I think it it it's kind of what Brian was saying.
- 9:36It's an elastic thing. It's like right now the balloon
- 9:40is filling up, you know, the the supply of Bitcoin is dwindling,
- 9:44but it's just not enough to really push up the price yet.
- 9:47And we will get to a point, I think probably pretty soon.
- 9:50I'm I'm kind of I'm kind of leaning towards, you know, it
- 9:53might be a slow summer. Again, I've been saying this,
- 9:55it's probably going to be a slow summer guys.
- 9:57You have a chance to stack some Bitcoin and then going into
- 10:00September and October, November is when we're really going to
- 10:03see this price start ripping. But what else do you have here,
- 10:06Luke? So I got some numbers here on
- 10:10just how much Bitcoin's being bought by the public companies.
- 10:13So as you can see, we've got around right now at the time
- 10:16recording this is more like 900,000 Bitcoin that's being
- 10:20bought by these Bitcoin treasury companies.
- 10:23I think that's interesting. I'm more interested in the ramp
- 10:26up recently and how this is beginning to.
- 10:29I want to be careful with my words.
- 10:31It is going parabolic, but the number of Bitcoin treasury
- 10:35companies is the number that I'm watching really closely.
- 10:38We can see here there's 258 entities right now.
- 10:41So these are public companies, private companies, governments
- 10:45and ETFs that hold Bitcoin. And that little tiny green
- 10:49number here in the top right hand corner of that little,
- 10:52we'll call it a toggle, a little square, we've seen 22 of these
- 10:57new entities put Bitcoin on the balance sheet in the past 30
- 11:01days. That's kind of crazy when you
- 11:03start looking at what is the average amount of Bitcoin on the
- 11:07balance sheet from these entities.
- 11:10I ran the numbers last week and there's about 6000 Bitcoin is
- 11:14the average amount of Bitcoin sat on the balance sheet for
- 11:17these publicly traded companies. So if you start crunching the
- 11:20numbers and you say hang on a minute, we've got 22 new
- 11:24treasury companies coming online every month.
- 11:28It's what, about four and a half a week?
- 11:33If they're putting 6000 Bitcoin on the balance sheet each again
- 11:37over some time, we're not saying they're launching with 6000
- 11:41Bitcoin, but if they aspire to acquire, that's a little bit of
- 11:45a rhyme. 6000 Bitcoin on the balance sheet, All of a sudden
- 11:49you start running the numbers and you're like, hang on a
- 11:51minute, 450 bitcoins mined every day.
- 11:55These guys alone are buying like 15 days worth of supply each and
- 12:01we're nearly seeing 4 1/2 of these guys added every single
- 12:07week. So I think it's the trend, Opti
- 12:09that has me most concerns. Yes, we're seeing a lot of
- 12:13Bitcoin on the balance sheet by these treasury companies, but
- 12:16it's kind of like it's the trend and it's how fast it's
- 12:20accelerating that has me interested.
- 12:22I, I think this bull run, a lot of people have been looking
- 12:25around saying why aren't altcoins outperforming Bitcoin,
- 12:29right in 2017? It was the ICO mania that led to
- 12:33this big wave of crypto outperforming Bitcoin in 2020
- 12:37and 2021. I think that bull run was cut
- 12:39short, but we saw a little bit of this NFT hype and this NFT
- 12:43mania and this cycle. All of the altcoiners who are in
- 12:47my DM saying, Luke, what's happening?
- 12:49My bags aren't pumping like yours.
- 12:51What's going on here? I, I think what they're missing
- 12:54this cycle could be the fact that maybe because the buyer is
- 12:59different this cycle, maybe the kind of things that outperform
- 13:03Bitcoin could be different. So again, this cycle, I think is
- 13:07being dominated by the big money billionaires, sovereign wealth
- 13:10funds, public companies, literal nation states are putting
- 13:14Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Do we really think these guys
- 13:17are going to be setting up a meta mask wallet and aping into
- 13:21poo coins on sushi swap? I don't think so.
- 13:24I think these guys, if they want to try to outperform Bitcoin, I
- 13:28think they're going to try to do it in the public markets and buy
- 13:31trusted companies, publicly traded companies that have 510
- 13:36or even 20 years of a track record of being a publicly
- 13:40traded company like MicroStrategy.
- 13:42People forget this company is like 2530 years old now.
- 13:45It's not like this flash in the pan cryptocurrency that just
- 13:49popped up on sushi swap last week.
- 13:51We're not seeing that this cycle.
- 13:53So again, that's just kind of my thoughts on this 2025 cycle.
- 13:56Brian Opte, I'd love your thoughts on, you know, is this
- 14:00cycle going to be different? I know a lot of people are
- 14:02saying, Oh, you the four most unpopular words are in investing
- 14:06what this time is different, But I don't know, I I kind of feel
- 14:09like it is. I love your thoughts I think.
- 14:11You're absolutely right, and I'll say why I think you're
- 14:13right on that for two reasons. Luke 1, like Michael Saylor has
- 14:18famously said, Bitcoin's either going to a million or zero.
- 14:20So I'm, I'm not regurgitating that.
- 14:22I'm saying that for the public. You, you noted that plus 22
- 14:26publicly traded entities have have added to a added a Bitcoin
- 14:31treasury. I'll say instead of the one or
- 14:35the 1,000,000 or 0 on Bitcoin, I'll say either all publicly
- 14:38traded companies will have Bitcoin on their balance sheet
- 14:40or eventually none will have it. There's there's no reason with
- 14:45what we know about Bitcoin, what it is as good sound money,
- 14:48scarce pristine collateral. If somebody needs to borrow
- 14:52against it, any of those qualities that Bitcoin has, it
- 14:56does not make sense for Bitcoin just to be like 15% of publicly
- 15:01traded entities would have it on their balance sheet.
- 15:04It's either good enough for all of them to have it and they will
- 15:06all chase it or eventually the people who do hold it will
- 15:09realize that this wasn't worth their time and they will get rid
- 15:12of it. It's either 0 or all.
- 15:14And so which way do you think this is going?
- 15:16Well, the numbers seem to indicate that this is going
- 15:19towards all of them eventually having it.
- 15:21And why would all of them want to have it?
- 15:23I mean, Metaplanet is showing this in Japan.
- 15:26We're we're seeing, if you're familiar with the dollar
- 15:28milkshake theory, we understand that the this is going to be the
- 15:30last one to have this problem of, of credit.
- 15:33The biggest credit bubble in history is happening around the
- 15:37world simultaneously all at once.
- 15:40If you're a publicly traded company, one of the things you
- 15:43need to do, the reason why you're publicly traded in the
- 15:451st place is so that you have access to capital from
- 15:48investors. One of the benefits of Bitcoin
- 15:51on your balance sheets is you it gives you another tool to access
- 15:55capital if you ever need it because again, Bitcoin, whether
- 15:58you and I would do this borrow against your Bitcoin, I actually
- 16:01have no problem with it. I think it's a it's, it's a
- 16:03great, great way to go. It's better than selling your
- 16:05Bitcoin. If a publicly traded company
- 16:07holds Bitcoin on their balance sheet, they now have an
- 16:10instrument by which they can borrow against and overtime
- 16:14their company's going to have access to more and more capital.
- 16:16When credit is bursting around the world, when Fiat currencies
- 16:20are bursting around the world, this the lifeline, the life raft
- 16:24for your publicly traded company will be Bitcoin.
- 16:26So again, are all of the publicly traded companies going
- 16:29to have Bitcoin on their treasury or none of them?
- 16:32I think it's going to be all of them.
- 16:36I think that's such a good point.
- 16:38Again, CK from the Human Rights Foundation eventually kind of
- 16:42drilled something into my head back in like 2020, he said.
- 16:46Like the most unlikely outcome for Bitcoin is it's just another
- 16:50asset. It kind of just sits at about
- 16:52500,000 or $1,000,000 a coin like most people think it will.
- 16:57So many people in Bitcoin think, OK, Bitcoin will be this $20
- 17:01trillion market cap asset, It'll be worth a million, big ones
- 17:04$1,000,000, and it'll just be like a version of digital gold.
- 17:08And we'll still have $100 trillion equity market.
- 17:12We'll still have a $350 trillion real estate market.
- 17:16We'll still have a $300 trillion debt market.
- 17:19And then there'll just be little old Bitcoin.
- 17:21It'll be worth $20 trillion and nobody will care about it.
- 17:23It'll be a pet rock as Warren Buffett calls gold.
- 17:26And I think that is the most unlikely outcome.
- 17:30If you look at 3 scenarios, I think Bitcoin either dies and
- 17:33it's worth 0 or it is worth 10s of millions if not hundreds of
- 17:39millions of dollars a coin. And it represents at least 50%
- 17:44of the global wealth in the world today.
- 17:46We got $900 trillion of capital. Everything is grossly mispriced
- 17:52because it's looking for money. It's looking for a safe place to
- 17:56sit. So either Bitcoin is what we
- 17:59think it is, it is the best savings vehicle in human history
- 18:04forever. And if it is that, then the
- 18:09majority of the world's wealth that is looking for a safe place
- 18:12to go will want to flow into Bitcoin.
- 18:15Again, I'm not saying Bitcoin will ease all of the $900
- 18:19trillion in the world, not saying that.
- 18:22I'm saying that at least half of the money in the world that's
- 18:24looking for a safe place, it will move to Bitcoin.
- 18:28Again, I'm not saying real estate's going to 0.
- 18:30Real estate's going to have value, but it's going to
- 18:33eventually shrink to its utility value.
- 18:36And if you look at real estate pre 1970, before we blew up this
- 18:40massive debt bubble and we left the gold standard real estate
- 18:43was priced at I think the average home cost something like
- 18:472 to three times the average person's income.
- 18:51If you look in my neck of the woods, Australia, the average
- 18:54home in Sydney, Australia is like 22 times the average
- 18:58person's income. In Toronto, it's like 15.
- 19:01LA, it might be a little bit lower, but it's still like 7 to
- 19:0410, which is still grossly higher than the long term
- 19:08utility value of real estate. So again, to your point, Brian,
- 19:11I think it's a great one. I personally believe Bitcoin is
- 19:14all or nothing. Bitcoin is worth 10s of millions
- 19:17or hundreds of millions of dollars a coin or it's worth 0.
- 19:20I, I genuinely just think these, these models predicting Bitcoin
- 19:25to be worth $1,000,000 or $2,000,000 in 2040.
- 19:29I, I think they're extrapolating false data.
- 19:31I, I, I don't think we should be trusting fancy drawn lines on
- 19:35charts because they're not actually able to encapsulate the
- 19:397000 year history of money that we've got.
- 19:42Because every single monetary transition we've seen, it's all
- 19:45or nothing. Like again, how many people are
- 19:48storing value in silver today? 0.01% nobody.
- 19:54Why is that? That's because when better money
- 19:56comes along, it completely obsoletes prior money and it's
- 20:00all or nothing. It's the same with gold today.
- 20:02Well, gold was money in the 1800s.
- 20:04How many people store money in gold?
- 20:07OK, we got $900 trillion of wealth.
- 20:10Gold's $21 trillion. Zero .02% of the world still
- 20:15uses gold as money. It's been completely obsoleted.
- 20:19So again, if we think Bitcoin's better money, it's gonna take
- 20:22the majority of the world's wealth.
- 20:24So the idea it being $1,000,000, I, I personally think that's
- 20:28ludicrous. But again, Opti, feel free to
- 20:30just rein in the chat's saying you're being.
- 20:33Bearish today. So I don't know make of that as
- 20:36you will and and Brian there. I I don't know if I need to
- 20:39bring it up here, but the chat remembers Luke came on last week
- 20:42and was saying like the most ridiculous price prediction for
- 20:45where Bitcoin was going. So he's not living up to his
- 20:48bull tardedness here, here on today's show.
- 20:52But I think I think Brian made a really good point and you guys
- 20:55are both basically summing up how I believe it.
- 20:57It's like Bitcoin is either going to 0, it's going to
- 21:00something crazy. And I really don't believe it's
- 21:03going to 0 at this point. Anyone that's saying it's even
- 21:05going down to like 1520 K, I'm still like, I don't know what
- 21:09you're looking at with everything we're seeing.
- 21:12I don't think that's even a possibility here.
- 21:15You know, there's still people saying it's going to 8K or
- 21:17whatever the memes were last cycle.
- 21:19But I think what Brian was saying is really kind of one of
- 21:25the main points and, and whether you like Bitcoin treasuries or
- 21:28not, I think every company, if they are a well run, functional
- 21:33company will have Bitcoin on their balance sheet.
- 21:35Now, does that mean that they're all going to be these, you know,
- 21:38strategy at the market, preferred stock, you know,
- 21:43convertible notes type company? I don't think so.
- 21:46I think those are going to be far and few in between.
- 21:48But every country like we say or sorry, yeah, every country,
- 21:51every company and every individual will have Bitcoin in
- 21:55some form in their portfolio or rather as their savings.
- 21:59And I think that's the future we're heading at.
- 22:01As we've been saying, it is kind of a 0 sum game.
- 22:03It's like do people still use salt?
- 22:05Do people still use rocks, you know, whether it's a gold rock
- 22:08or a huge, you know, shaped rock out there?
- 22:12Do we still use seashells? It's like, no, we have a better
- 22:14money technology and it's only a matter of time until the world
- 22:18kind of wakes up to this. And we're still early.
- 22:19And I think the main point here that Brian said that I think a
- 22:24lot of us forget. And we have been saying this for
- 22:26a while on the show. Like again, I don't want to be
- 22:29the this time is different guy, but this time is definitely
- 22:32different. And the reason I'm saying that
- 22:34not so much in the sense of this market structure, the price
- 22:38structure of Bitcoin, the four year cycle is different.
- 22:41But what we do know to be different is the person that
- 22:44that is interested in Bitcoin like the the investor is
- 22:47different. Now in Bitcoin, it's not just
- 22:50retail that's driving the price. Now we have literally the
- 22:53biggest institutions and potentially nation states that
- 22:56are fundamentally driving this price.
- 22:57So whether this means that the Bitcoin cycle is different,
- 23:01whether that means the Bitcoin cycle is over, etc, I don't
- 23:05necessarily know or think that that is the case.
- 23:08But we do know one thing. The narrative around Bitcoin is
- 23:11different. The investor that is interested
- 23:13in Bitcoin is different. And I think whether that happens
- 23:16this year or whether that happens the next five years, one
- 23:19thing is for sure, like things are fundamentally changing and
- 23:22the Bitcoin market is maturing in real time.
- 23:26And that comes with a lot of things that maybe don't align
- 23:28perfectly with the, you know, initial libertarian type
- 23:32Bitcoiner. But I think we all, if you
- 23:35looked at this, even even how Finney was saying this in the
- 23:37beginning, you know, if you understand the game theory of
- 23:41Bitcoin and how it plays out, the financialization of Bitcoin
- 23:44and how it plays out, this was all going to happen and it is
- 23:47happening according to plan. So I don't know if this cycle is
- 23:51necessarily different. I I'm still convinced, you know,
- 23:54end of year it's going to be bullish.
- 23:56You guys are probably going to have a good summer of stacking.
- 23:59Hopefully you don't take your foot off the gas here, But I I
- 24:02still think end of the year we're going to, we're going to
- 24:05get some, some crazy price movement.
- 24:07It's just it's going to be a slow summer.
- 24:09And what's what's crazy is we view this as a great time to
- 24:13stack. We're having all time high
- 24:15weekly closes, all time high monthly closes and the
- 24:19perception is this is a good time to stack.
- 24:22To your point, Opti, is this time different?
- 24:24Yes, this time is different. When Bitcoin was at 69,000,
- 24:27nobody saw that as a good time to stack.
- 24:30It was it was frothy. I mean, new guys saw it as a
- 24:33good time to get in, but they didn't.
- 24:34They weren't, they weren't dollar cost averaging.
- 24:36They were taking every dollar they had and buying Bitcoin for
- 24:39the first time. This time is different.
- 24:41We can see it. It's not theory that it's
- 24:42different. It actually is different.
- 24:44Bitcoin's 109,000 and we're like, yes, thank God that it's
- 24:48staying this low the price. Think about how, what, what
- 24:53mechanisms move the price. Again, coming back to the
- 24:56basics, it's at the margin. The only people that think
- 25:00Bitcoin is worth $109,000 are those very few people that are
- 25:04selling it right now. What do 99.99% of Bitcoin?
- 25:09People that hold Bitcoin think the prices, they think it's
- 25:11something higher than this. That's why the price isn't going
- 25:14lower than it is right now. They think it's going higher.
- 25:17So what is the the democracy of Bitcoin holders telling us?
- 25:21It's telling us that the price is higher.
- 25:23You and I think this is a good time to buy.
- 25:25Every indication shows that that balloon is stretched very, very
- 25:29big, but it's it's not bursting yet.
- 25:32Patience, my friend. Hey, Luke, we have a good
- 25:35question here and I'm going to pose it to you guys.
- 25:38This is Muddy Oaks Homestead. He says, OK, say what we're
- 25:42saying is correct. So what do you think the what do
- 25:45you believe the catalyst will be to pump towards the year end?
- 25:48Like what is our thinking here? What is going to pop this
- 25:51balloon? I'm going to pose it to you
- 25:52first, Luke. Yes.
- 25:56So for me, it's just eventually the supply shock that we've seen
- 26:00in Bitcoin will be manifested in the market.
- 26:03Brian again has not only made a great analogy, I love that with
- 26:07the the hot air and the balloon as well.
- 26:09I like that one. It's a different perspective I
- 26:11haven't thought about. But eventually like this idea of
- 26:14the supply shock will hit the market.
- 26:17So again, people know what's triggered Bitcoin bull runs to
- 26:22happen every four years. Again, there's still a debate on
- 26:24this topic. Is it macro or is it the
- 26:27halving? But if I look at both of those
- 26:29things, both of them are set up to be incredibly bullish over
- 26:32the next, you know, 12 months. So the four year liquidity cycle
- 26:37looks as if we are just due now for a large amount of money to
- 26:41be printed and interest rates are still very high.
- 26:44This is what a lot of people miss Bitcoin the first time
- 26:47around, back in 2021 when it ran up to $65,000 a coin.
- 26:53What brought Bitcoin down? Bitcoin was brought down by the
- 26:57fastest, the fastest interest rate hiking schedule in history.
- 27:01And a lot of these macro tech Bros were said, oh, the only
- 27:06reason that Bitcoin rallied from 4K to 65K in 2020 to 2021 was
- 27:12because we're in this 0% interest rate environment.
- 27:16Bitcoin's just a speculative high beta tech stock.
- 27:20It's like beta on the NASDAQ. This is the understanding of
- 27:24your typical macro bro back in 2020 and 2021 who was caught on
- 27:29the sidelines again, scratching the head saying, why is Bitcoin
- 27:33outperforming my bags and everything else?
- 27:35Well, that was the explanation they put on Bitcoin.
- 27:39And when interest rates were raised at the fastest pace in
- 27:41history back in 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin crashed and these guys
- 27:47were proven right for them. But now bitcoins kind of come
- 27:51back from the dead, and right now it's at $110,000, but
- 27:56interest rates are still pretty high.
- 27:58So all of a sudden that narrative of Bitcoin just
- 28:02pumping in a low interest rate environment has been absolutely
- 28:06swept under the rug. It's gone.
- 28:08It doesn't exist anymore. So I I think interest rates are
- 28:11still high. So if they are lowered, this
- 28:14could be huge moon juice for Bitcoin.
- 28:19We could be putting moon juice into our into our rockets.
- 28:21OK, this could be incredibly bullish for Bitcoin.
- 28:25We have global money supply. Has it even started expanding
- 28:29yet? So we always walk through these
- 28:31numbers here on the channel. Each four years we see global
- 28:35money supply expand aggressively and it correlates with Bitcoin
- 28:38bull runs. So in 2012 and 2013, global
- 28:41money supply increased by like 22%.
- 28:43Bitcoin rallied by 100 X 2016, 2017.
- 28:46We saw this four year wave of global liquidity happen again.
- 28:50Liquidity expanded in 20/16/2017 by like 26% globally.
- 28:55Bitcoin pump 20X same thing in 2020.
- 28:58Global M2 rose by about 50%. Bitcoin rallied by 5X.
- 29:03And now over the past two years the global money supply has only
- 29:07expanded by like 4%. So again, if you look at
- 29:10previous bull runs and these waves of four year global
- 29:14liquidity, we haven't even seen it start to actually like
- 29:18increase yet, although it is increasing now at the fastest
- 29:22pace in about 3 to 4 years, showing us that we're in the
- 29:25early stages of liquidity expanding over the next 6 to 12
- 29:29months. So I think that's catalyst #1
- 29:32it's a long way to explain it, but global liquidity I think, is
- 29:35about to expand. And we've got data showing that
- 29:38Bitcoin reacts positively when this happens.
- 29:41And then of course, we've got the halving.
- 29:43So we all know the halving typically triggers Bitcoin price
- 29:47booms. Bitcoin typically peaks in these
- 29:50bull runs about 12 to 18 months after the halving.
- 29:53Historically, we had the halving back in 2024.
- 29:57It's now mid 2025. People are kind of looking
- 29:59around once again asking themselves the question, what's
- 30:02happening? So I think when we've got the
- 30:05halving, we've got global liquidity and then we've got a
- 30:09third catalyst that Bush people aren't even talking about.
- 30:13And that is I think the double harm in that's being created in
- 30:17Bitcoin, that's just kind of taken effect.
- 30:20And the double harm in he's looking at the Bitcoin and the
- 30:23supply that's being ripped off the exchanges from these new
- 30:26entities who we continue to talk about billionaires, nation
- 30:29states, public companies. Again, let's not forget the
- 30:33there's about what 164,000 Bitcoin mined a year and these
- 30:38entities have just bought like 5 to 600,000 over the past 12
- 30:42months. So I think they are creating a
- 30:45little bit of a halving in and of itself just by the amount of
- 30:49Bitcoin that they're pulling off the exchanges that I don't think
- 30:52is going to return to the exchanges.
- 30:54So again, I think we've got 3 catalysts that make me super
- 30:57bullish in the short or the medium term.
- 30:59Again, I always tell you guys, who knows where the price of
- 31:01Bitcoin is going in the short or the medium term.
- 31:03I have no idea. And you certainly shouldn't
- 31:05trust a kid with this haircut on the Internet to tell you where
- 31:07the the price of Bitcoins going in the short or the medium term.
- 31:10But I think in the long term, I think the fundamentals that we
- 31:14continue to kind of go back to here on simply, I think that's
- 31:18what makes me super bullish. But Brian, I'd love your take.
- 31:21Yeah. I mean, beautifully said, and I
- 31:23don't think I've I've necessarily thought about it
- 31:24like that, that that Bitcoin has gone to a new all time highs in
- 31:30loose credit under a loose credit policy.
- 31:32It's gone under tight credit policy.
- 31:34Like it shows that bitcoins eating whatever type of monetary
- 31:37policy is on the table. That brilliant.
- 31:41I mean, I got it got me extra, extra pumped here.
- 31:42I don't know what I'm more bullish on though, is what you
- 31:44just said or the the Luke's hair comments.
- 31:48If you if guys go to YouTube and go through the comments it these
- 31:52are freaking hilarious. What I appreciate about the
- 31:57Trump administration is we as as conservatives or libertarians
- 32:02over the last few years, we've gotten used to Nancy Pelosi and
- 32:07her husband making the most brilliant stock picks ever,
- 32:10right? They outperform every hedge fund
- 32:12because they've called it right every single time.
- 32:14But we always found out afterwards, right?
- 32:17It was it was in there reporting as public officials where they
- 32:20had to kind of report these things after the fact.
- 32:23What is the the Trump administration and the people,
- 32:25the people in it like Howard Lutnick, who's the the Secretary
- 32:29of Commerce, which means he's in charge of the entire economy of
- 32:32the United States, like the domestic economy in the United
- 32:34States and all business in there.
- 32:36He's that the secretary that reports to President Trump.
- 32:39What is he doing? What is Don Junior doing?
- 32:42What is Eric Trump doing? These guys that know and then
- 32:46that are on the inside, they know what policy not Howard
- 32:49Lutnick is not just he doesn't. He doesn't just know what
- 32:52policy's about to come. He's helping formulate the
- 32:55policies that are about to come. He started his or his company,
- 33:00Cantor Fitzgerald, started a Bitcoin acquisition company, Don
- 33:05Junior, Eric Trump. These guys are either doing
- 33:08mining companies or Bitcoin acquisition companies.
- 33:10They're just, they're telling the public I'm doing whatever I
- 33:13can under any financial instrument I possibly can or any
- 33:17type of entity I can create right now.
- 33:19I'm going to buy and hold Bitcoin and they're going to
- 33:21conferences and telling people that that's what they're doing
- 33:24it. It'd be like if Nancy Pelosi
- 33:26told you 10 years ago she was going to be buying NVIDIA or
- 33:29anything that she was doing public policy around, we would
- 33:32say, you know what, at least, yes, she's going to benefit from
- 33:35that. She's using her knowledge to
- 33:37enrich herself. But at the same time, at least
- 33:39she's going to conferences and telling people ahead of time,
- 33:41this is what she's doing before any kind of legislation or
- 33:45bureaucratic, you know, protocols are or are put around
- 33:50these types of things. And So what what's happening?
- 33:54Why am I bullish? The writing is on the wall.
- 33:56The people who hold the power to say like we know what's right
- 34:01around the corner in terms of United States, the most
- 34:04powerful, richest country in human history.
- 34:08We know what they're about to do.
- 34:10And what we're doing personally and in our personal and in our
- 34:13businesses is we're buying as much of this particular asset as
- 34:17we possibly can. If that was beans or if that was
- 34:20corn and they and they were buying up as much as they can, I
- 34:23would be buying beans or corn as well.
- 34:25Because I'd say, you know what, these guys that know what
- 34:27policies coming up, they're buying a lot of beans and corn.
- 34:30What are they buying? They're buying Bitcoin and they
- 34:33have no intention of selling it. The writing's on the wall and
- 34:36there's a lot of transparency in this.
- 34:38So whether you think that these guys are good or bad, that
- 34:40that's not what matters. They're telling you what's
- 34:42happening. There's no reasonable way to
- 34:46think that Howard Lutnick is buying as much Bitcoin and
- 34:50holding as much Bitcoin as he possibly can because negative
- 34:53Bitcoin legislation or negative Bitcoin policy is going to
- 34:57happen in September. So why do we keep saying
- 34:59September is this date? It's because the cryptozar David
- 35:02Sachs says that that's when these things are going to start
- 35:04to roll out. This is when Trump right now is
- 35:06talking about tariffs. He's talking about the war in
- 35:09Iran and and Israel. He does these things in stages.
- 35:12And so better believe it. Trump has an agenda, like
- 35:16literally a calendar agenda. And I think what everybody's
- 35:19telling us is in September, Trump is going to be turning his
- 35:22focus, his rhetoric, his bully pulpit towards Bitcoin and what
- 35:27they want to do from a pro Bitcoin position.
- 35:30Every time Trump gets on the mic about a particular issue,
- 35:32everybody starts talking about it and that's what's coming.
- 35:36That's in part why I'm bullish. Love it, love it.
- 35:40Yeah, I mean mine. I'm a, you know, you guys got
- 35:42into a lot more intricate takes than I would have.
- 35:45I'm a simple, you know, 40. I think my IQ is dropping.
- 35:48I think now it's like 43. I think I'm at 43 IQ now.
- 35:53My catalyst is simple, just more people buying, which means the
- 35:57price goes up and as the price goes up, more people start
- 36:01buying. Like it's as simple as that.
- 36:03It's a it's a self fulfilling feedback loop.
- 36:06What we all know, whether you, you know, like who said this
- 36:10here? Someone just said it in the chat
- 36:14Sat wise Jinx. He goes, you know, I've been in
- 36:17Bitcoin for so long, like at this point, I don't even look at
- 36:20the Bitcoin price and I I have always been joking forever like
- 36:24that is true Bitcoin Zen there. We're like, yes, you look at the
- 36:28price, yes, it's like, you know, you get a good dopamine rush,
- 36:32but you really kind of don't care.
- 36:34All you really care about is are you coining more sets?
- 36:37Well, that's like when you're at the very bottom of the rabbit
- 36:40hole. For most people, they care about
- 36:43the price. When they see the price start
- 36:44ripping, that's when they want to buy it.
- 36:47I don't know why humans are like this, but as the price goes up
- 36:50more, that's when they really want to buy Bitcoin.
- 36:52It really does remind me of the meme going around for a while.
- 36:54Bitcoin has a Veblen good. The more expensive it gets, the
- 36:58more expensive it gets, the more people want to buy it.
- 37:00And then like, if you like Bitcoin at 100K, you probably
- 37:05like it at 58 K, like it's just on discount.
- 37:09It makes no sense to me how people can look at Bitcoin hit
- 37:12all time highs. It pulls back and they're like,
- 37:14yeah, you know what, actually, I want it to go lower because, you
- 37:17know, I, I want to buy more of it.
- 37:19And then it goes lower and then they don't buy it.
- 37:21But then Bitcoin starts ripping and they're like, actually I
- 37:24need to buy this now because it might never come down to these
- 37:28prices again. So I really think it's just a
- 37:30feedback loop as we've been seeing, we're seeing all kinds
- 37:33of institutional demand for Bitcoin.
- 37:35The ETFs have literally just scooped up, I think it was 1.24
- 37:39million overall. The the Black Rock ETF in
- 37:43itself, I think it's at like 600 or 700,000 coins right now.
- 37:47Corporate treasuries, as Luke was explaining earlier, buying a
- 37:50shit ton of Bitcoin. It's like as these companies,
- 37:54institutions, nation States and individuals, you know, some of
- 37:58the wealthiest people in the world start to buy Bitcoin.
- 38:00It just starts becoming a no brainer for people and then once
- 38:03enough people get there, then everyone wants to buy it.
- 38:06But it really does revolve around the price of Bitcoin.
- 38:10As it goes up, people want to buy it.
- 38:12I don't know why humans are like this, but it's as simple as
- 38:15that. As more people buy, the price
- 38:16goes up. As the price goes up, more
- 38:18people buy. And then maybe we hit a a
- 38:21critical point and we see a correction.
- 38:24But I think the catalyst is just simply the price starting to
- 38:27move with more people coming in. Like it's as simple as that to
- 38:29me. Yeah, you mentioned Veblen good.
- 38:33I know we have a jam packed show, but remind me after the
- 38:37break to ask me about a Veblen threshold because I think Samson
- 38:43Mail has a really good thesis on what is a Veblen threshold and
- 38:47what happens when Bitcoin reaches that.
- 38:50I think we should dive into that, but yeah.
- 38:51Actually, we'll scrap the numbers.
- 38:53We'll do Veblen threshold in the numbers today.
- 38:55Yeah guys, we're we're running way late.
- 38:57I just looked at it up. We're running super late on
- 38:59today's show. But hey, you guys like more
- 39:01shows. So if you like this content, of
- 39:03course smash the like button comment on the show.
- 39:06What is going to be the catalyst to make the Bitcoin price go up
- 39:09and of course, hit the subscriber button.
- 39:11Guys, we're dropping the best content, period.
- 39:14We drop the most content and the best content.
- 39:16And on that note guys, I do want to give a shout out to our
- 39:19partners of, of course, Bitcoin. Well, if you want to buy
- 39:21Bitcoin, go to bitcoinwell.com. They have never lost the SAT.
- 39:25They will never lose the SAT because when you buy Bitcoin
- 39:28from them, they send it directly to you in your Bitcoin wallet.
- 39:33This is the best way. We talk about this constantly.
- 39:36We think self custody is the revolution.
- 39:38It's not just enough to buy Bitcoin and leave it on an
- 39:41exchange. You need to buy Bitcoin and
- 39:44secure that Bitcoin. Hold the keys for yourself.
- 39:47Do not get caught up buying fake Bitcoin.
- 39:49You want to buy the real thing and Bitcoin, well, make sure
- 39:53that you receive every SAT you bought from them.
- 39:56Of course guys, when you sign up and you go to
- 39:58bitcoinwell.com/simply BTC, scan the QR code, you get three
- 40:03chances to win a million SAT. So they are giving you guys free
- 40:06Bitcoin. This is the way.
- 40:08All right, guys, we got, I'm running late, so I got to keep
- 40:10going. I want to tell you guys about
- 40:19our sponsor stamp seed. Is your Bitcoin and cold storage
- 40:23really secure? Are your seed words really
- 40:26secure? Stamp Seeds Do it
- 40:42You want to literally stamp your seed into this plate of
- 40:46titanium. Your words are actually stamped
- 40:48into the metal plate with this hammer.
- 40:51So once your words are in, they aren't going anywhere.
- 40:55No risk of the plate breaking apart and your pieces falling
- 40:59everywhere. Titanium stamp seeds will
- 41:01survive nearly triple the heat produced by a house fire.
- 41:05They are also crush proof, waterproof, non corrosive and
- 41:09most importantly, because this is generational wealth time
- 41:13proof, all things that paper is not allowing you to huddle your
- 41:19Bitcoin for the long haul. I mean, here is the plate that
- 41:23they crushed, they put in water, they put a blowtorch to it.
- 41:27And as you can see, the words have survived.
- 41:30Stamp your seed on stamp seed and you can use promo code
- 41:35simply to get 15% off anything on their store.
- 41:39Head over to stampse-ed.com today.
- 41:45All right, guys, let's just go over some quick numbers while we
- 41:49continue this conversation. So of course, the Bitcoin price
- 41:52today is currently at $108,900 per Bitcoin.
- 41:55It's a decline of -2.8% from all time high.
- 42:00We're currently sitting around a $2.17 trillion market cap.
- 42:04And then of course, the current block height is 904,624.
- 42:09So I am pivoting right now because Luke brought up
- 42:12something good. So let's talk about you said
- 42:15Beblin threshold. So as I explained, A Beblin
- 42:18good, it's a simple idea. Don't let the big word kind of
- 42:22confuse you here. It's just basically, you know, a
- 42:26good something that you buy that as it gets more expensive, it
- 42:29kind of makes people want to buy more of it.
- 42:31Think of it like a, you know, a car or like a a painting or like
- 42:36a Rolex watch something that kind of gives you status.
- 42:39It's luxury. But as it gets more expensive,
- 42:42instead of kind of persuading people not to buy it, it makes
- 42:46them want to buy it more. That's like a layman's term of
- 42:49what a Veblen good is. But Luke introduced this new
- 42:52idea of a Veblen threshold. I feel like I'm familiar with
- 42:57this. I've definitely heard this.
- 42:58But Luke, the floor is yours. What is the Veblen threshold?
- 43:04You're muted. I think you're muted.
- 43:05Oh, there you go. Yeah, You're delayed.
- 43:07Your thing's delayed. Yeah.
- 43:08All right. There you go.
- 43:10So I was interviewing Samsung one day and he, he was talking
- 43:13about a Veblen good. And then he threw back at me,
- 43:16oh, Bitcoin's actually going to hit a Veblen threshold.
- 43:20I was like, what? What is that?
- 43:21My mind was broken on the interview.
- 43:23I couldn't think. And I've been thinking about it
- 43:25a lot and it kind of makes a lot of sense.
- 43:27Like most people are used to Bitcoin kind of going parabolic
- 43:30in bull runs, and then you see a big capitulation afterwards.
- 43:35But there could be a world in the future where Bitcoin's going
- 43:37on a bull run and there's some sort of a threshold that he's
- 43:40reached and all of a sudden there's no capitulation
- 43:43afterwards. It literally is going up
- 43:46forever, Laura. So that is kind of the idea of a
- 43:49Veblen threshold. Bitcoin hits some sort of a
- 43:51critical mass or a critical tipping point where I think the
- 43:56volatility actually explodes. A lot of people sharing the
- 43:59chart of Bitcoin doing diminishing returns.
- 44:03Again, each bull run it's getting smaller and smaller.
- 44:062013 we got 100 X 2017 we got a 20X2020, we got a 5X.
- 44:11Everybody's saying, oh, we're going to get a 3X this bull run
- 44:14because diminishing returns. Again, I see the data.
- 44:17I just don't think that's going to be how Bitcoin is monetized.
- 44:22I think we are going to be in a bull run one day and there's
- 44:25some sort of a critical tipping point.
- 44:29I don't know what the price tag is going to look like.
- 44:32I don't know when it is going to come.
- 44:34But the thesis is how I think Bitcoin's going to get adopted.
- 44:39And it is my base case that Bitcoin gets adopted in some
- 44:42really strange exponential curves because it's just what
- 44:46happens. Eventually there's going to get
- 44:48to a point where there's no Bitcoin on the exchanges,
- 44:52there's no Bitcoin on the OTC disks, and all of a sudden there
- 44:56could be trillions of dollars in the fixed income market or the
- 45:01debt market that wants to get out and wants to buy Bitcoin.
- 45:06And you've got to think about this.
- 45:07Yes, I agree with everybody who says, but Luke, there will
- 45:11always be sellers of Bitcoin. They will 100%.
- 45:14There's going to be people selling Bitcoin, there's going
- 45:16to be OG holders selling Bitcoin.
- 45:19But at that Veblen threshold where there's no Bitcoin on the
- 45:22exchanges and there's no Bitcoin on the OTC desks, your hodlers
- 45:26could be selling 1,000,000 coins like they did in 2024 and 2025.
- 45:31OG Bitcoin Hodlers sold a million Bitcoin.
- 45:34That is true, that's a fact. But they could put a million
- 45:38Bitcoin on the exchanges in the future.
- 45:40But if you've got just $5 trillion from the $315 trillion
- 45:45fixed income market that is trying to come into Bitcoin, the
- 45:50corrections are going to be very shallow.
- 45:52They're not going to be these 80% corrections like we used to
- 45:56it I, I, I expect volatility is going to actually explode when
- 46:00we hit this Veblen threshold. And the spikes and the
- 46:03volatility we see on the chart are going to be much more like
- 46:07the volatility that we saw during the German hyperinflation
- 46:11way back in the 1920s. Most people would have seen the
- 46:14chart and it has overlaid on the chart of gold pricing, German
- 46:19marks. It has the volatility overlaid
- 46:23on it and we saw like 880% corrections in five years.
- 46:29That's just how steep the volatility was.
- 46:31And the closer we got to the German mark hyperinflating, the
- 46:35more the volatility got. So again, I'm not saying the US
- 46:39dollar is going to hyperinflate tomorrow, I'm not saying that.
- 46:41But what I am saying is that Bitcoins adoption is going to
- 46:44look more like that. The volatility is going to
- 46:48continue to get bigger and bigger the closer we get to its
- 46:51saturating its total addressable market cap.
- 46:54So a way that I think about this is I think the volatility is
- 46:57going to increase until we get to about $100 trillion market
- 47:01cap. When we get there, that's when
- 47:03we start talking about diminishing returns.
- 47:06I, I don't think we should be talking about diminishing
- 47:08returns and bitcoins volatility decreasing when it's 0.2% of the
- 47:14world's capital. It is the best savings vehicle
- 47:19in the world. It has a total addressable
- 47:23market cap of $900 trillion and people are talking about
- 47:26diminishing returns. It's zero point.
- 47:30It's ridiculous. And that's kind of do you let me
- 47:33know if you guys have any questions about this idea of a
- 47:36Veblen threshold. But it's a little bit of a
- 47:38difficult concept to wrap your mind around.
- 47:41And I had to think about it for weeks before I understood it.
- 47:44But I I think it's a really interesting thought experiment.
- 47:47Yeah, no, it's great. We did get AII like this.
- 47:50Comment here in the chat Winsome when some hacks it goes that's
- 47:53not the case with Bitcoin. As Bitcoin gets more expensive,
- 47:56it de risks weirdly, as the price goes up, it becomes more
- 48:00acceptable to conservative investors.
- 48:02And I I think we're kind of saying the same thing.
- 48:04It's just like, you know, what's all parables or whatever like
- 48:08it, it really doesn't necessarily relate to reality,
- 48:12but it just gives you a good map of what's going on.
- 48:15Or rather, you know, the map and the terrain are completely
- 48:18different. But since we are dealing with
- 48:20something that is so completely alien, you know, alien
- 48:24technology, something that we're haven't really seen ever in any
- 48:28one of our lifetimes, You do kind of use these different
- 48:31examples to kind of grasp just the basic ideas of what's going
- 48:34on. But I, I do, I do agree with
- 48:36what Winsome is saying. Like as the price gets more, as
- 48:40it becomes more saturated in the culture, it completely gets de
- 48:43risked. Like right now, I think it's the
- 48:44least risky time to be buying Bitcoin.
- 48:47And I think all of us feel this way, even though there's still
- 48:50people that are like, it's 100K, it might dump and you're like,
- 48:53it doesn't really matter at this point.
- 48:54This is the least risky time to be buying it.
- 48:56But back to your point, Luke, I do kind of agree with you at a
- 49:02certain point that and I don't know what, we obviously don't
- 49:06know where that is, but there will be a point where the
- 49:10diminishing returns beam just like isn't viable anymore.
- 49:15I believe in the S curve adoption of Bitcoin.
- 49:17It's a new technology. I don't even think we've seen
- 49:20the S curve yet. Like we haven't seen the
- 49:21parabolic move of the S curve. We're still kind of in the early
- 49:25innings of Bitcoin adoption. If again, if you know the S
- 49:28curve, it's like like can I do it on here?
- 49:30Wait, no, how do I do it? All right, it goes wait like
- 49:34that and then it goes up. I'm sorry, it's it's hard to do
- 49:37it backwards. This is just the beginning of it
- 49:41and there will be that point where as the price goes up,
- 49:45there will be AI guess a escape velocity and it just starts
- 49:49ripping and then eventually it'll taper off.
- 49:53I don't think it's there like it, just the sheer number and
- 49:57size of the available capital that can come into Bitcoin.
- 50:00It doesn't make sense to me in regards to just a personal
- 50:04heuristic of all the people you talk about.
- 50:05Most people still think you're an idiot if you if you buy a
- 50:07Bitcoin. Most people aren't comfortable
- 50:09with, with their life savings going into Bitcoin.
- 50:13Only us, you know, psycho. What do they call it?
- 50:16Shadowy super coders, illiterate economists or whatever they used
- 50:20to call us are like, hey, we have literally nothing to lose
- 50:23here. Let's just go all in on this
- 50:25thing. It's going to take over.
- 50:27And people that have wealth are obviously more risk averse and
- 50:31they don't want to lose their wealth.
- 50:32Whereas if you're, you know, a young kid, you probably got a
- 50:36couple $1000. Like I, I literally had like
- 50:38$200 when I first started with Bitcoin.
- 50:40I was like, you know, what's the problem with me losing this
- 50:43$200? Like I'm broke anyways.
- 50:45I'm going to spend it on freaking lunch tomorrow.
- 50:48Like I really have nothing to lose.
- 50:50They're like there's levels to this here.
- 50:52And I, I just, I don't think we've gotten to a point yet
- 50:55where it's completely de risked and people are, are that
- 50:59comfortable with going all in on Bitcoin, even like the sailors
- 51:02out there like, yeah, sailor now he's going all in.
- 51:06But when he started, he, you know, he just bought like a
- 51:08little 10,000, you know, Bitcoin at a time, you know, like we
- 51:12don't even have the financial advisors out there saying, yeah,
- 51:16you should probably go 50%. We've seen it kind of inch up.
- 51:19It's like 1 to 2%. Then it went to five, then it
- 51:22went to 10 and now we're going to like 40%.
- 51:25It this is just beginning. Anyways, Brian, I I think I kind
- 51:29of rambled there a little bit. No, it's great.
- 51:32I, I think that that Veblen threshold, I, I hadn't heard
- 51:36that term threshold. So I'm sitting here thinking
- 51:38about what is that threshold that it, it aligns, I think with
- 51:41my thesis on the, the parallel economy and when the, when the
- 51:44Bitcoin parallel economy is going to kind of manifest it,
- 51:48it, it exists out there, right? People buy and, and, and, you
- 51:51know, sell goods in Bitcoin or buy and sell services in
- 51:54Bitcoin. That happens, but it doesn't
- 51:56necessarily happen at scale. Shout out.
- 51:59That's one of the the great things about Orangeville app is
- 52:01it's a great way to find those people if you are trying to
- 52:04participate in that economy. But all I have to say is that
- 52:09most of us are familiar with the the four step cycle of monetary
- 52:14adoption. So money historically, if it, if
- 52:18it gets widely adopted, its first phase is it starts out as
- 52:22a novelty or a collectible. The second phase is when it gets
- 52:25into the store of value phase. So people go beyond like, oh,
- 52:28this, this, this shiny gold rock is neat and I like to put it on
- 52:31my shelf. Oh, well, the store value phase
- 52:34is when you realize that other people put it on their shelves
- 52:37as a collectible and therefore you can capitalize on it as a
- 52:40store of value. The third phase is the medium,
- 52:43medium of exchange phase where people started to buy and sell
- 52:45things in gold. And then the fourth phase was
- 52:47the unit of account when people actually kept their books in
- 52:51gold. That was kind of like the final
- 52:52boss of money is if you can get to the unit of account phase.
- 52:55Well, we're clearly in the store value phase.
- 52:57We've passed the collectibles phase.
- 52:58The collectibles phase was when you can get 22 pizzas for 10,000
- 53:02Bitcoin. People didn't know how to to
- 53:03correctly price Bitcoin of course, or that's what its
- 53:06market value was at the at the time.
- 53:08And so it was clearly a collectible back then.
- 53:10Or when you could go to a website and click a button and
- 53:12get 5 Bitcoin every day for free.
- 53:15That was the Bitcoin collectible phase.
- 53:17Well, we're clearly in the store value phase.
- 53:20The next phase that is going to come if Bitcoin, if we, we all
- 53:23say it's good sound money. We all say that it's the best
- 53:27form of money ever. So to me, it seems abundantly
- 53:32clear that the next phase is the medium of exchange phase.
- 53:36Whether you want to spend your Bitcoin or not.
- 53:38I believe that's where this is going.
- 53:40I believe that's the inevitable nature.
- 53:42And why is that phase so powerful for the buying power of
- 53:46Bitcoin? Or you want to call it the price
- 53:47of Bitcoin? Because when when Bitcoin gets
- 53:49used as money, it is never hitting the exchange.
- 53:53The exchange is where the price of Bitcoin gets suppressed.
- 53:57So when you if if I have a Bitcoin right now and I want to
- 54:00go buy a car, if I need to sell that Bitcoin, turn it into cash
- 54:04to go get the car, well, guess what?
- 54:07I'm suppressing the price of Bitcoin 'cause I'm going to the
- 54:09exchange. But when enough people use it as
- 54:12a medium of exchange, it never has to touch the exchange.
- 54:16And who do I report to when somebody comes into one of my
- 54:19Wellness studios and wants to buy, you know, a cold plunge in,
- 54:21in sauna session and, and they pay me in Bitcoin.
- 54:25Am I ever reporting that somewhere that oh, some Bitcoin
- 54:27got exchange And so the price of Bitcoin?
- 54:29No, no, no, that that is secret exchange of money that never
- 54:34suppresses the price of Bitcoin. So not only is what Luke talking
- 54:38about is going to happen at these pools of capital that are
- 54:40coming from all corners of the world, but we're talking about
- 54:43pools of capital from people who actually don't have a lot of
- 54:46investable assets, but they do have money in their checking and
- 54:50savings account. They and when, when the majority
- 54:53or all of the money in their checking and savings account
- 54:55turns into Bitcoin, cause Bitcoin is the best medium of
- 54:58exchange, we see a sticky price of Bitcoin again that, that,
- 55:04that Beblin effect or that Beblin threshold where Bitcoin
- 55:07is going up forever. Well, why would the price of
- 55:09Bitcoin ever come down when people are now holding Bitcoin
- 55:12not in their savings account, but in their checking account?
- 55:15That is a different paradigm for Bitcoin, and I believe that's
- 55:18where we're headed. Bars.
- 55:21Absolute bars. I love that.
- 55:23Brian, the chat agrees with you on that.
- 55:25All right, guys, again, I am running late on today, so I'm
- 55:28going to RIP through this news story and I really want to chat
- 55:30about what Brian is doing with Orange Pelop.
- 55:33So again, I'm going to RIP through the news story.
- 55:36We'll chat about a little bit, but I'm really trying to get to
- 55:39what Brian's doing. I really think it's a noble
- 55:41thing here, so let's just get through the show.
- 55:44I want to give a shout out to our partner Ledin, the leader in
- 55:48Bitcoin backed loans. Unlock the liquidity in your
- 55:51Bitcoin without having to sell your Bitcoin.
- 55:53They've issued $9 billion in loans to over 10,000 customers
- 55:58since 2018. I absolutely love these guys.
- 56:01Not only do I have an account with them, but I also have a
- 56:04loan. And what I love about them is
- 56:05that there are no monthly payments and you could pay back
- 56:08the loan at any time. As soon as you send your Bitcoin
- 56:11as collateral, you'll have cash in your account within 20 24
- 56:15hours. Over 1005 star customer reviews
- 56:18and they've never lost a single dollar or sat of customer money.
- 56:22Go to learn dot leaden dot IO simply today and you'll get .25%
- 56:29off your first loan. I want to give a shout out to
- 56:32our partnersat123.com. Sovereignty isn't just about
- 56:36your money, it's about your communications too.
- 56:38When the grid goes down, most people go dark.
- 56:41Cell towers fail in hurricanes, cyber attacks and blackouts.
- 56:44But satellite phones, they don't rely on local infrastructure.
- 56:47Iridium has 77 satellites in orbit, giving you a Direct Line
- 56:52anywhere in the US, even offshore.
- 56:54If you hold your own Bitcoin keys, you should hold your own
- 56:57comstoosat123.com also has everything you need need to
- 57:01start building your Bitcoin. Citadel, Starling, battery
- 57:04backups, Faraday Backs to protect your hardware wallets,
- 57:08and much much more. It's a one stop shop for anyone
- 57:11serious about resilience and off grid independence.
- 57:14Stay connected, stay independent, stay sovereign.
- 57:17Go to sat123.com/simply today and use promo code simply to get
- 57:2215% off anything on the store. I want to give a shout out to
- 57:31our partner Cold Card. If you're serious about self
- 57:34custody, Cold Card is the best Bitcoin Harbor wallet.
- 57:37There is no second best. The Cold Card Q is the ultimate
- 57:41air gap Bitcoin signing device, complete with a full keyboard,
- 57:45large screen camera, NFC support and much more.
- 57:49Do you prefer something sleeker? The MK4 is trusted by hardcore
- 57:53bitcoiners around the world. Both are built by Bitcoiners or
- 57:58Bitcoiners secure and open source.
- 58:01Simply Bitcoin viewers get 5% off with promo code Simply take
- 58:05self custody of your Bitcoin today with Cold Card.
- 58:13All right, guys, let's RIP through this real quick.
- 58:15So Frank Korba, if you don't know who he is, political
- 58:17correspondent at the Bitcoin magazine, he's literally has a a
- 58:22pass to be at the White House as one of the journalists he
- 58:26tweeted this. AUS court has dropped Coin
- 58:27Center's appeal to OFAC regarding Tornado Cash, but the
- 58:31developers behind the tech are still facing criminal charges.
- 58:34So looking at this guys, and we've been talking about this
- 58:36going on for a long time. You know, historically or rather
- 58:40very infamously on the show, there was 1 defining moment
- 58:44where Nico fully crashed out and that's when the Samurai wallet
- 58:48guys got arrested. But before that, when this case
- 58:51happened, we were seeing the writing on the wall and this is
- 58:54when we came out very vocal in the November elections last
- 58:59year. So here we go, headline U.S.
- 59:02court brings Coin Center's Tornado Cash appeal to a close.
- 59:06So Coin Center's appeal to the US Treasury Department's Office
- 59:08of Foreign Asset Control, AKA O FAC regarding Tornado Cash is
- 59:12now over. So one good thing out of this,
- 59:15but there's still a lot to go on.
- 59:17And before everyone's like, OK, this Tornado Cash, what's this
- 59:20have to do with Bitcoin, guys? Again, we said when this
- 59:23initially happened that this was a precedent being set to clamp
- 59:27down on privacy tools, not only in Bitcoin, but in the whole
- 59:31space. And that's exactly what happened
- 59:33here. So on July 3rd, 2025, the US
- 59:35Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit agreed to end an appeal
- 59:39that crypto advocacy group Coin Center, excuse me Coin Center,
- 59:43made to OLFAC regarding the etherium based mixing service
- 59:46Tornado Cash. This decision by the court
- 59:49occurred approximately 2 1/2 months after the US Treasury
- 59:52Department removed Tornado Cash from its OFAC sanctions list
- 59:55after having kept it on the list for over three years.
- 59:57The dismissal of this case officially ends Coin Center's
- 1:00:00challenging Ofac's decision to include Tornado Cash on its
- 1:00:04sanctions list. And then you can see here.
- 1:00:06Peter Van Valkenburg, executive Director at Coin Center,
- 1:00:09commented on X earlier today that the government did not want
- 1:00:12to continue to defend an interpretation of sanctions law
- 1:00:15that seemed too broad. So here it cuts off and.
- 1:00:18To go here to the tweet and it goes.
- 1:00:20This is the official end to our court battle over at the
- 1:00:23statutory authority behind the tornado catch sanctions.
- 1:00:27The government was not interested in moving forward and
- 1:00:29defending their dangerously over broad interpretation of
- 1:00:32sanctions laws. Thank you again to our Co
- 1:00:34plaintiffs trustless state who got dusted and said bring it on.
- 1:00:38Developer Patrick O'Sullivan, who simply hoped to get paid a
- 1:00:41salary with privacy and our John Doe, who supported the defense
- 1:00:44of Ukraine on chain while dodging Gru countermeasures.
- 1:00:48Now going back to the article to really clear up clear up some of
- 1:00:51the stuff here. This appeal being dropped comes
- 1:00:54in the wake of a memo from the US deputy attorney general Todd
- 1:00:57Blanche, in which he stated the US Department of Justice will no
- 1:01:00longer target crypto technology like mixers.
- 1:01:03So again, on the one hand, a huge win, I would say, and
- 1:01:06hopefully we see something of the sort play out for samurai.
- 1:01:10Of course, they're still on trial.
- 1:01:12But despite this fact, this appeal has been dropped and
- 1:01:14Tornado Cash is no longer in the OFAC sanctions list.
- 1:01:17The creator of this technology are still facing criminal
- 1:01:20charges. Tornado Cash Co founder
- 1:01:23developer Roman Storm is scheduled to appear in federal
- 1:01:26court in the Southern District of New York on Monday, July
- 1:01:2914th, so of next week. And then of course, you can see
- 1:01:33later, Alexi Pertsev, forgive me, he was found guilty of money
- 1:01:39laundering in May in the Netherlands and was sentenced to
- 1:01:42five years in prison. And the other guy, they don't
- 1:01:44know where he is. So on the one hand, I think this
- 1:01:48is a good step towards what we would like to see here at Simply
- 1:01:52Bitcoin. Of course, famously ever since
- 1:01:55the samurai wallet arrest is when we kind of crashed out on
- 1:01:59the show and we took a very, very strong line in the sand
- 1:02:04here. So it looks like what we've been
- 1:02:06seeing around from the Trump administration and all the other
- 1:02:10institutions associated, they are seemingly going to kind of
- 1:02:13walk back a lot of the attacks that we've been feeling as an
- 1:02:17industry, whether you're in shit coins or not.
- 1:02:20On the other side, let's hope for the best for these
- 1:02:23developers because again, I think that's going to be
- 1:02:25precedent moving forward and really in hopes that this gets
- 1:02:29cleared out so that the Samurai wallet guys also get cleared of
- 1:02:34something very similar. So, you know, I don't know if
- 1:02:36you guys want to touch on that real quick.
- 1:02:38I think it's a good thing to see kind of that they are pulling
- 1:02:42back a little bit. We'll still have to wait and see
- 1:02:45what happens next week. You know, who knows what really
- 1:02:49happens when it, when it comes to the courts here.
- 1:02:51But I'm, I'm feeling optimistic here.
- 1:02:54It does seem like with Trump coming in, they are actually
- 1:02:57doing a good thing for the Bitcoin industry or even the
- 1:03:00shit coin industry at large. And hopefully we can minimize
- 1:03:03these attacks for the next three years and further.
- 1:03:06So tentatively bullish on this. You guys want to do a quick take
- 1:03:11and then let's let's RIP it over so that we can chat about what
- 1:03:14Brian is doing over there at Orange Pearl app.
- 1:03:17Luke, I know you've been on the beat for a while.
- 1:03:19So what's your thoughts on this? And then we'll pass it to Brian
- 1:03:21and keep it moving. I think you're muted or yeah,
- 1:03:29you're muted or there's a delay or something here.
- 1:03:34Yeah, I'll, I'll go. I think your mic fell.
- 1:03:36I used to have a mic down, but I, I think, OK, so one of the
- 1:03:41things and, and whether you want to call these guys martyrs or
- 1:03:44whatever one, just from a security standpoint, I think the
- 1:03:49altcoin industry acts as a Moat for Bitcoin.
- 1:03:52It's a weaker target. It's a softer target for, for
- 1:03:55attackers, for for politicians, for whoever it is, is coming
- 1:03:59after Bitcoin. So you can look at it that way
- 1:04:01is that they're still kind of a Moat around Bitcoin, whether you
- 1:04:03like that industry or not. But two, and if you don't want
- 1:04:07to call them martyrs for Bitcoin, that's fine.
- 1:04:10Maybe it's not the best analogy, but if you look at movements of
- 1:04:14history that permeate the entire world, that spread around the
- 1:04:18entire world, look at what happens to their martyrs.
- 1:04:22Like, for example, Ross Albrecht was, was a martyr of Bitcoin.
- 1:04:26He's been freed, he's been pardoned.
- 1:04:29The, the, the martyrs of Bitcoin are actually gaining, they're,
- 1:04:33they're propelling the movement forward.
- 1:04:36Movements that get snuffed out that don't, that aren't
- 1:04:38impactful to history. We, we don't really know many of
- 1:04:41those stories off the top of our head because those stories are
- 1:04:45kind of irrelevant. But there's plenty of movements
- 1:04:47in history that tried to build steam and tried to change the
- 1:04:49world. But as soon as they're their
- 1:04:51leaders or the people that were kind of making the movement
- 1:04:55happen, as soon as they get imprisonment or fines or they
- 1:04:58got any kind of oppression, the movement gets shut down.
- 1:05:02And so like, look at Christianity, for example, the,
- 1:05:06the early Christians were fed to lions.
- 1:05:08They were put in prison, they were stoned to death.
- 1:05:10And then you go a couple generations later and now
- 1:05:12they're, they're, yes, they're still being oppressed, but
- 1:05:14they're at least getting to get a voice before Caesar.
- 1:05:17They can go make their case before Caesar, even if they're
- 1:05:20still being oppressed. And then you go a couple
- 1:05:21generations after that and now all of a sudden they're advisors
- 1:05:25to Caesar. That right.
- 1:05:26The the the path of the martyrs is one of the biggest indicators
- 1:05:30as far as the health of the future of your movement.
- 1:05:34If your martyrs go from being oppressed to being influential,
- 1:05:38or being oppressed to the release of oppression, then
- 1:05:42that's actually a very good sign that your that your movement has
- 1:05:47power in those upper echelons and at least has a voice in
- 1:05:50those upper echelons. Yeah, 100%.
- 1:05:52Couldn't agree more with that, Brian.
- 1:05:54OK, Luke, are you back? I'm back, I have a little
- 1:06:00magnetic clip on my microphone and got stuck to my girlfriends
- 1:06:03neck face so I was trying to stay what was.
- 1:06:06Going on over. There.
- 1:06:11What are you doing? I'll keep a PG right on the
- 1:06:12show. So what I was going to say
- 1:06:14before I had to go and retrieve my microphone was I'm not
- 1:06:18bullish on Freedom go up in the short term.
- 1:06:21In the long term, I am because of things like what Brian is
- 1:06:25building with the Orange Pool app.
- 1:06:27But I think in the short term, I'm seeing some, let's call it
- 1:06:31precedent set in America that I think is very optimistic.
- 1:06:34Like with Trump releasing Ross Ulbricht, maybe this sets a
- 1:06:38little bit of a precedent around the world or especially in
- 1:06:41America by saying, hey, you can build technology and put it out
- 1:06:46there in the world and we're not going to come and arrest you
- 1:06:49just because we don't like the technology or building.
- 1:06:52Again, think about that for a minute.
- 1:06:53Ross didn't commit a crime and the guys at Samurai didn't
- 1:06:56commit a crime. I need to be careful what I say
- 1:06:59so we don't get us in trouble, but I think people should be
- 1:07:02able to build technology. I don't think people should get
- 1:07:05in trouble for building or developing a technology that
- 1:07:09gets used by people we don't like.
- 1:07:12Again, I think that's kind of my just first principles view of
- 1:07:16the world. So I think I'm optimistic that
- 1:07:19in the short term in America, there's some sort of protection.
- 1:07:22But again, the reason why I said I'm only long term bullish is
- 1:07:27because if you're in the UK or in my former home country, if
- 1:07:31you share a meme on Facebook, you could have police knocking
- 1:07:35at your door the next day. So again, I think we've got a
- 1:07:37little bit of a battle to go through over the next decade,
- 1:07:42especially Europe and a lot of the other Western countries that
- 1:07:45have lost their mind, like Canada on New Zealand and
- 1:07:48Australia. I think it's going to be a
- 1:07:50little bit more of a longer battle for those guys, which is
- 1:07:53again, why I'm so bullish on technologies that enable us to
- 1:07:58opt out. Again, there is what, 10s of
- 1:08:01millions of Bitcoiners around the world?
- 1:08:02But it kind of sucks that we're all living in different
- 1:08:04countries. So again, I'm super bullish on
- 1:08:07encrypted technology that allows us to actually chat all around
- 1:08:11the world. They can't turn the Internet off
- 1:08:13despite some countries trying to buy a wallet like China.
- 1:08:16They can't stop communications. Super bullish on Nosta, super
- 1:08:21bullish on Bitcoin. Super bullish on what you know,
- 1:08:24things like Brian is building with orange peel app.
- 1:08:27So again, I think sovereignty is spreading around the world.
- 1:08:31The rise of the digital nomad is right now absolutely
- 1:08:34unstoppable. Again, just think about this for
- 1:08:36a minute. The Internet kind of really
- 1:08:39started hitting its straps in the year 2000.
- 1:08:41We saw the tech bubble boom. Most people started to become
- 1:08:45familiar with the idea of a computer.
- 1:08:48Laptops were soon then invented. But in the year 2000, how many
- 1:08:53people were working remotely around the world?
- 1:08:55Let's say it was zero. OK.
- 1:08:57And between the years 2000 and 2018, there were 6,000,000
- 1:09:02digital nomads. So it took about what, 18 years
- 1:09:05plus 6,000,000 digital nomads to emerge and say, you know what,
- 1:09:09adios Chao, I'm out of my home country.
- 1:09:12I'm going to go and work remotely from a different
- 1:09:15country that actually treats me better and doesn't try to attack
- 1:09:19and milk and tax and trace my capital.
- 1:09:22But again, think about 2018. We talk about inflection points
- 1:09:25a lot. And I think 2020 was an
- 1:09:27inflection point for Bitcoin. But then in 2018, there was a
- 1:09:30massive inflection point of people leaving the West and
- 1:09:34going and moving their business and their jobs online and
- 1:09:37working remotely. And since 2018, we've seen
- 1:09:406,000,000 digital nomads leave their home countries every
- 1:09:43single year. And today there's 35,000,000
- 1:09:47digital nomads. So again, we're talking about S
- 1:09:49curves and S curve adoptions. And just think about how many
- 1:09:53sovereign individuals are now escaping their Western countries
- 1:09:57and going and working remotely. Again, This is why I'm not only
- 1:10:02bullish on Bitcoin, but I'm also bullish on the overall digital
- 1:10:05nomad movement. Like we are the fastest growing
- 1:10:09trend behind Bitcoin adoption. So again, a lot of people are
- 1:10:12like they're looking at AI and it's like, I don't want to get
- 1:10:16too far off track, but so many people are saying, oh, AI is
- 1:10:19this technological revolution. It's the thing of the the 21st
- 1:10:22century. No, it's not.
- 1:10:24It's it's Bitcoin and it's working remote.
- 1:10:26Like those are the big exponential trends actually
- 1:10:30making really big impacts on government.
- 1:10:33So without getting too lost, then going down too, too many
- 1:10:36different tangents. That's kind of my thoughts on on
- 1:10:38the recent developments there with the love it.
- 1:10:40Luke love it. I'm sure we could go down that
- 1:10:42rabbit hole. Maybe next time you're on we'll
- 1:10:44go down that rabbit hole, but we have a new rabbit hole to go
- 1:10:47down and it is what Brian is working on over at Orange pill
- 1:10:52app. And you know, it might it might
- 1:10:53sound a little doomer ish here, but I actually think it's kind
- 1:10:57of hopeful here and it really kind of is a good piggyback off
- 1:11:00what Luke just said about bitcoiners building community,
- 1:11:03sovereign individuals. So let's get into this last
- 1:11:06segment and let's chat about what the orange pill app is
- 1:11:09talking about and rather not talk about doing.
- 1:11:12They're an app of action here, so let's get into it.
- 1:11:17I want to give a shout out to our partner Hive Digital
- 1:11:20Technology. Why Hive in 2025, unstoppable
- 1:11:24growth as the first ever public miner.
- 1:11:27Hive's position to quadruple their global footprint, making
- 1:11:31them one of the world's fastest growing miners in 2025.
- 1:11:35And with elite operations that consistently topped the industry
- 1:11:39in Bitcoin mined, per Exahash, Hive's now headquartered in the
- 1:11:42USA. Clean and mean, They're green
- 1:11:45and clean, and they're rewriting the playbook on sustainable
- 1:11:49Bitcoin mining. You can catch the latest buzz at
- 1:11:52Hive Digital Tech or at Hive digitaltech.com.
- 1:12:02I want to give a shout out to our sponsor Casa.
- 1:12:05Casa makes self custody easy and secure.
- 1:12:08As a bitcoiner I care about holding my own private keys, but
- 1:12:12multi sig can sometimes get tricky.
- 1:12:15Casa nails it with a multi key security so even if one key gets
- 1:12:19lost or stolen, your Bitcoin stays safe and you don't give up
- 1:12:23custody. Meaning no one could access your
- 1:12:26Bitcoin but you. No seed phrase anxiety, no
- 1:12:29singer point of failure. I've been telling my friends and
- 1:12:32family about Casa for years. Their UX and UI on their app is
- 1:12:37by far the best in the industry. Inheritance planning is built
- 1:12:41in, and they even offer Casa for business.
- 1:12:44If you're thinking about a Bitcoin treasury, hit up Casa
- 1:12:47dot IO today and use promo code simply to get 10% off Casa
- 1:12:52Standard or Casa Premium. Head over to Casa dot IO.
- 1:12:59All right, Brian, let's start with what is orange pill app and
- 1:13:04then of course, talk about your your new Geo zapping feature,
- 1:13:09but how you guys are relating this to real world, you know,
- 1:13:14environmental effects, like real world things happening in the
- 1:13:18news right now. So quick, quick pitch, you know,
- 1:13:21what is orange pill app for the new people that aren't familiar
- 1:13:23with it? And then let's talk about what
- 1:13:25you guys just did. Yeah.
- 1:13:28Thank you. Well, it, it, it definitely
- 1:13:30relates to the story. We, we just did because there's
- 1:13:32features and functions like I'm going to talk about today is the
- 1:13:34the new orange pull up wallet that we, we did not want to
- 1:13:40build until the regulatory shift from this administration.
- 1:13:43Like building a wallet and seeing what happened to the
- 1:13:46samurai guys or the tornado cash like like seeing what happens to
- 1:13:50these people. It is actually prohibitive.
- 1:13:51And there's countries that like if you, if you build an app that
- 1:13:55has a Bitcoin wallet in it, like there's countries that I don't
- 1:13:58want to travel to right now because it's probably like
- 1:14:01unfriendly territory of like you built an app that has this
- 1:14:04wallet. So that's the beautiful thing
- 1:14:05about the regulatory clarity, the the, the, the release of
- 1:14:09tension around building wallets like this.
- 1:14:11But in a nutshell, Orange bull app is just a social network to
- 1:14:15connect bitcoiners. You don't need another social
- 1:14:17media. You have X, you have noster you
- 1:14:19you have YouTube and rumble what you can communicate to people
- 1:14:23through. If you want to meet bitcoiners
- 1:14:25in real life, whether that's meeting up at events, whether
- 1:14:29that's finding the Bitcoin that lives in your neighborhood.
- 1:14:32Do you want to go and grab coffee with That's why orange
- 1:14:34pull app exists. It's the in real life component
- 1:14:37of Bitcoin as things go to AI and like Luke said, AI, whatever
- 1:14:40it's, it's, I don't think it's the big it's, it's going to
- 1:14:43impact the world, no doubt, but I don't think it's the biggest
- 1:14:46thing happening in the world because what's going to happen
- 1:14:48is AI is going to do a lot of stuff for us.
- 1:14:50It's also going to just produce so much noise on the Internet
- 1:14:53that the Internet, I think in the not too distant future is
- 1:14:56going to be unbearable. You're going to have a few
- 1:14:58spots. You're going to land, you're
- 1:15:00going to land on Luke's show. You're going to land on simply
- 1:15:01Bitcoin. You're going to go to a few
- 1:15:03brands that you know and trust. You're going to see what they
- 1:15:05have to say. And then you're going to want to
- 1:15:06get the heck out of the Internet because it's going to be filled
- 1:15:08with so much noise. The last island of of signal is
- 1:15:13going to be your in real life community.
- 1:15:15And so I think that's where you can find the alpha in Bitcoin is
- 1:15:18by finding the real bitcoiners that are around you.
- 1:15:21Like when I went to the the Las Vegas conference last month, we
- 1:15:25we organized an event for after one of the nights where all the
- 1:15:29Orangeville app people came and we had a party.
- 1:15:31We got to hang out in real life with these people that it takes
- 1:15:35you from the abstract in the Internet phase to the in real
- 1:15:38life and actual like a handshake and a hug and eye contact and
- 1:15:42the special video sequences that that make a real connection even
- 1:15:47that much more valuable. I'm so while what we do here on
- 1:15:50the Internet is important and it's part of the digital or it's
- 1:15:54a part of the future, the digital side, the physical
- 1:15:56connection. I think a lot of people are
- 1:15:58sleeping on how big the physical is going to be and so we build
- 1:16:02tools for that. We earlier this year, our
- 1:16:05developers are freaking amazing. They built the coolest Bitcoin
- 1:16:09wallet Lightning wallet out on the market right now, and why
- 1:16:12it's so cool is because it has functions that no other wallet
- 1:16:15can even can even possibly have because of the nature of orange
- 1:16:18pull app. We have wallets that are
- 1:16:21approximate Geo located, so you can turn on your location
- 1:16:25services and then find wallets that are in your proximity.
- 1:16:28Why would you want to do that? Well, if you want to spend
- 1:16:30Bitcoin with a Bitcoin business that accepts sats, I found my
- 1:16:35Barber through there. I found my plumber through
- 1:16:36there. I found people in my community
- 1:16:38who I can who I can exchange sats with for various goods and
- 1:16:41services. There's ranchers on there.
- 1:16:43Texas Slim, the big beef guy. You can buy beef from him that's
- 1:16:48clean grass fed from a regenerative farm.
- 1:16:50You can exchange sats with him because of of the nature of in
- 1:16:55real life connections on orange pull up and the really cool
- 1:16:58thing that is happening with this Geo zapping.
- 1:17:00And so when I say Geo zapping, I'm talking about being able to
- 1:17:03send SAT because they're in a specific location.
- 1:17:07Think about the humanitarian efforts that are coming along
- 1:17:10with this. So you can go into Orange Peel
- 1:17:11app right now, you can type in Hunt, TX, or you can type in
- 1:17:14Texas, and you can send SAT to every single person in Texas.
- 1:17:19Well, why would you want to do that?
- 1:17:20Well, if you've been reading the headlines, you're also aware
- 1:17:23that there's a catastrophe going on.
- 1:17:25People are losing their lives that that there's flooding in
- 1:17:28Texas and and when natural disaster occurs or when man made
- 1:17:33disaster occurs. The orange flap wallet is one of
- 1:17:36the most beautiful solutions for sending SAT so that the Bitcoin
- 1:17:40social layer, So you and I, the Bitcoiners of today, can send
- 1:17:45resources, can send sats permissionlessly across
- 1:17:50cyberspace to other Bitcoiners who need it.
- 1:17:53Because think about it, in these flooded areas, yes, FEMA's going
- 1:17:56to come in and they're going to eventually set up tents and
- 1:17:59they're going to eventually give these people a check for $700.00
- 1:18:02to maybe give, you know, buy them a few meals.
- 1:18:04That's going to happen in like 2 weeks by the time that money
- 1:18:07hits their account in seconds, Bitcoiners from around the world
- 1:18:11can send SAT to bitcoiners who are in that area.
- 1:18:15And it's it's a revolution unlike ever before.
- 1:18:18We have over 17,000 bitcoiners on the app.
- 1:18:21That number just continues to grow everyday.
- 1:18:23So when we get to 1,000,000 Bitcoiners that are on this app,
- 1:18:26the social dynamic in the amount of social resource that we're
- 1:18:30going to be able to send to people around the world when
- 1:18:33catastrophe happens, it's going to be quite possibly Bitcoin is
- 1:18:37going to be the biggest humanitarian group in world
- 1:18:40history because we have tools like the orange for lap
- 1:18:43lightning wallet and the functionality of Bitcoin across
- 1:18:46time and space. What's what's being built here
- 1:18:49is, is game changing world building.
- 1:18:51And I, I hope that people in the audience today want to be a part
- 1:18:54of that because it's, it's something truly special and
- 1:18:56we're really excited about it. Yeah, no, it's honestly honest.
- 1:19:01It's it's incredible. And this isn't wouldn't be the
- 1:19:03first time that you guys have literally helped areas in need.
- 1:19:09I'm thinking of the LA fires as well.
- 1:19:11You guys were a huge part of that.
- 1:19:13I know a lot of bitcoiners were finding places to sleep at, you
- 1:19:18know, getting people to reach out and be like, hey, man, I
- 1:19:21know you're in the area. Do you need somewhere to stay?
- 1:19:24Do you need some help? So it wouldn't be the first time
- 1:19:27that you guys have actually helped the real world events.
- 1:19:30And it's it's it's honestly kind of incredible when you just like
- 1:19:34we created a social app and then you realize, wait, the community
- 1:19:38aspect of this and helping people that might be the real
- 1:19:42mission of orange pill app here is just helping people around
- 1:19:45the world in need. And now with the Geo zapping,
- 1:19:48it's like it's it's almost like when you create, when Zuck
- 1:19:51created Facebook, whatever you think is intentions where it
- 1:19:54grew into something bigger than what it is.
- 1:19:56And this seems like one of those moments over here at Orange Full
- 1:19:59App. Yeah.
- 1:20:00It it, it begs the question, yes, Bitcoiners are going to be
- 1:20:04the the people of the future that who are the the richest
- 1:20:09people because they have the best money and the best buying
- 1:20:11power. What happens when you connect
- 1:20:14these well informed, conscious people who ask questions about
- 1:20:20power structures, but they also have a heart for other people?
- 1:20:24What happens when you bring those people together?
- 1:20:26Well, that's the experiment that we're running with orange pill
- 1:20:28app is what what is this going to fundamentally do to the
- 1:20:32future of humanity when the good people have power and social
- 1:20:39connectedness? I'm I'm very bullish.
- 1:20:42People ask me all the time, what are you bullish about?
- 1:20:44I'm bullish about the, the Bitcoin price or the Bitcoin
- 1:20:47buying power because what it, of what it's going to do for
- 1:20:49Bitcoiners and what we're doing with connecting bitcoiners on
- 1:20:53the other side. Because it's, it's one thing to
- 1:20:54have a bunch of, if you have a million bitcoiners that are all
- 1:20:57rich, that's great because you have them circling around,
- 1:21:00cycling around in the world, hopefully doing good things.
- 1:21:02But when you take those million people and you put them
- 1:21:05together, I think that the network effect of that has
- 1:21:08vastly more impact on the world. And it, like you said, the LA
- 1:21:13fires was another good example of that.
- 1:21:15We had a ton of activity through Bitcoin of people sleeping on
- 1:21:18people's couches or giving them their guest room for days or
- 1:21:21weeks at a time simply because they reached out.
- 1:21:25Like Bitcoiners were doing that. Hey, I know I I live, I live 3
- 1:21:29hours away from the fire. They were DM ING other people
- 1:21:32that they knew lived in LA and said, Hey, do you want to come
- 1:21:35stay at my house or hey, I have an Airbnb down by the beach.
- 1:21:39So people were getting like vacation rentals for free while
- 1:21:42their while their neighborhoods were tragically burning down.
- 1:21:45And so, yeah, what what are the impacts going to be of this as
- 1:21:48continue, whether it's man made disasters or natural disasters
- 1:21:51of the future, Bitcoiners get to be part of that solution.
- 1:21:55Yeah, I know it's awesome, Brian.
- 1:21:56And, and one thing I do want to echo, and I, I'm sure Luke feels
- 1:22:00something similar, but ever since I got into the big coin
- 1:22:04space, obviously you have these connections online and usually
- 1:22:09like these really cool people, like minded individuals, but
- 1:22:12everyone's on the Internet. And then ever since I joined
- 1:22:15simply, I basically moved and lived around Bitcoiners with
- 1:22:19Bitcoiners and not like my whole life is just like all my closest
- 1:22:23friends are Bitcoiners. And so I know what the power is
- 1:22:28of building a network around you of like minded individuals.
- 1:22:31And if you are out there and you're the sole crazy person
- 1:22:35that you know, I highly recommend getting on orange peel
- 1:22:39apps so that you can build a local community of like minded
- 1:22:42individuals that are also, you know, on the same plane as you.
- 1:22:44Like I, it's really invaluable that idea here.
- 1:22:48It's not just about your personal wealth going up, but it
- 1:22:51is about building a community around you of people that you
- 1:22:54can trust that, you know, have the same ideas as you, that have
- 1:22:57the same ethos as you. And it is very lonesome when
- 1:23:01you're the sole crazy person. And by crazy, I mean lovingly
- 1:23:05and endearing. Like when you're the sole
- 1:23:06bitcoiner, everyone thinks you're crazy, But when you get
- 1:23:09other around other bitcoiners, you realize like you're not the
- 1:23:12crazy 1. And I think that power, it's
- 1:23:16really underrated of just building like minded individuals
- 1:23:20around you. And again, if you don't have
- 1:23:22that right now, like I highly recommend getting on orange pill
- 1:23:25app and starting to create that. It's it's really an invaluable
- 1:23:28tool in your life. I'm by default Opti's friend.
- 1:23:33Yes, you are, yes, you are. Luke, you want to chime in here?
- 1:23:36I, I know you have something similar.
- 1:23:38You only hang out with Bitcoiners, you travel with
- 1:23:40them. That's all you know.
- 1:23:42So thoughts on this? I have no normally friends.
- 1:23:47I cut them all out of my life. I actually, I haven't talked to
- 1:23:51or seen any of my like high school friends in many, many
- 1:23:54years. And again, nothing against them.
- 1:23:57I wish them happy birthday, but that's about it.
- 1:23:59So for me, I only really, again, I haven't gone back to Australia
- 1:24:03in five years. I've been traveling remotely for
- 1:24:05the past, you know, four to five years now.
- 1:24:07I've just been a professional homeless bum, so to say.
- 1:24:11And again, I just travel from conference to conference.
- 1:24:14I've actually used Brian's app multiple times.
- 1:24:16I love the orange peel app. I use it at whatever conference
- 1:24:18I go to. So again, it gets the ticket
- 1:24:21approval from me. And again, I just, yeah, I mean,
- 1:24:24I'm super bullish on meeting other Bitcoiners.
- 1:24:26I think in the Bitcoin space in particular, there's this
- 1:24:30obsession is the wrong word, but let's call it hyper focus on
- 1:24:34financial sovereignty. And again, I can say this
- 1:24:37because this was something that I learned about myself in 2020.
- 1:24:41I thought I was the most sovereign kids going around,
- 1:24:44right? I, you know, I've got my Bitcoin
- 1:24:46in self custody, multi sig, all this, all that I'm, I'm hyper
- 1:24:51sovereign, right? This is how I thought of myself
- 1:24:52in 2020, but nothing could stop me.
- 1:24:55Then the whole lockdown shenanigan happened in Australia
- 1:24:59and I was like, oh shit, hang on a minute.
- 1:25:02Yeah, I've got financial sovereignty, but that doesn't
- 1:25:04mean squat if I don't have geographical sovereignty or if I
- 1:25:08don't have sovereignty over my own income.
- 1:25:11Again, I had a gym business at the time that I had to ask my
- 1:25:14government's permission to use, and I had friends around the
- 1:25:18world who I had to ask my government's permission if I
- 1:25:21could go and see them, and I wasn't allowed to do that for
- 1:25:24two years. I was locked in my prison cell
- 1:25:26in Australia. So again, financial sovereignty
- 1:25:29is great and that's what Bitcoin's for.
- 1:25:31But again, I just remind people, think about your geographical
- 1:25:34sovereignty and think about taking sovereignty over your own
- 1:25:38revenue streams. So yeah, I love traveling, go to
- 1:25:41every Bitcoin conference as many as I can.
- 1:25:43And I do use apps like the Orange People app to connect
- 1:25:46with other like minded individuals because like you
- 1:25:48said earlier, Opti, we are a little bit, let's call it
- 1:25:50different I. Mean, to be fair, Luke, I've
- 1:25:53never seen anyone with that haircut so.
- 1:25:59One-of-a-kind. one-of-a-kind. That's what I like to think.
- 1:26:04I'll tell you what, you don't see many of these Bitcoin
- 1:26:06conferences anyway. I'm certainly one of the
- 1:26:08weirdest chaps going around with this haircut.
- 1:26:10But I will say, yeah, I think I'm bullish on Bitcoiners and we
- 1:26:16are growing each conference I go to, there's more people each and
- 1:26:20every time. So yeah, I think go and shake
- 1:26:23some Bitcoiners hands in person. Every time I go to a conference.
- 1:26:28I feel dead during those conference days, like just
- 1:26:31exhausted. But the weeks following that
- 1:26:33conference, I feel recharged, reinvigorated.
- 1:26:37It's nice to have those connections and like, in person
- 1:26:42Bitcoin conversations, but more broadly, like, just
- 1:26:44conversations about, you know, how we see the world and how
- 1:26:47that's evolving. So yeah, Super Bowl, I love it.
- 1:26:49All right, Brian, I'm gonna give you the final, final message
- 1:26:53here for the audience called the action.
- 1:26:55Whatever you want, last plug around Orange Palapa or life in
- 1:26:59general. You do have some good life
- 1:27:01advice here. So, last plug, what do you want
- 1:27:03to tell the audience before we wrap up?
- 1:27:05Never pissed into the wind. No, I'm scared.
- 1:27:08No. Yeah.
- 1:27:10It it, it it's pretty, pretty basic, man.
- 1:27:13The life advice is the best things you do in life always
- 1:27:17involve other people in real life.
- 1:27:19The best moments of your life, the most magic moments, the
- 1:27:22things you look back on fondly, they involve other people.
- 1:27:25And so Bitcoin all time high days are coming.
- 1:27:29These days are going to be magic.
- 1:27:30You're going to be euphoric. But I, I tell you what, there's
- 1:27:32so much more euphoric when you have other bitcoiners that you
- 1:27:35get to sit around with and chat about it.
- 1:27:37Like your, your desire to find other Bitcoiners and go grab a
- 1:27:42beer or grab a coffee is going to be at an all time high when
- 1:27:45Bitcoin is at an all time high. So make those connections.
- 1:27:48Now that's, I know as bitcoiners, sometimes we feel
- 1:27:51like, OK, I've stacked every sat I possibly can and on Friday I'm
- 1:27:55going to stack some more SAT because that's when my that's
- 1:27:57when my buy goes through. What else can I be doing?
- 1:28:00Well, interacting with bitcoiners is is critical.
- 1:28:04I'm a big proponent of the Bitcoin parallel economy.
- 1:28:08A lot of Bitcoiners don't want to spend their stats.
- 1:28:10I understand that. So the next best thing you can
- 1:28:12do is hang out with other Bitcoiners.
- 1:28:14How tragic would it be if Bitcoin goes to 100 million per
- 1:28:18coin, like Luke said? What was his bullish prediction?
- 1:28:20It was like, I don't I. Don't.
- 1:28:22It was 7 billion. 7 billion per coin if Bitcoin goes to 7
- 1:28:27billion per coin and and governments at some point they
- 1:28:31say they they get just super tyrannical with the exchanges
- 1:28:35because they know that they can control the off ramps and you
- 1:28:37don't want to feed your family bug protein.
- 1:28:39You want to feed them good clean beef, but yet you don't know
- 1:28:43somebody with whom you can spend your Bitcoin.
- 1:28:46Like it doesn't matter how much value your Bitcoin has if you
- 1:28:49don't have an off ramp for it. If your only off ramp is the
- 1:28:52exchanges, the government sanctioned exchanges, then
- 1:28:56you've limited your scope of how you can use Bitcoin.
- 1:28:59So the best thing you can do is build those connections right
- 1:29:02now. You don't have to go out and
- 1:29:03spend your stats, just find and no other bitcoiners.
- 1:29:07It's an insurance policy for the future.
- 1:29:09And I tell you what, it's just freaking fun.
- 1:29:11It's a good time along the way. And so, yeah, you want to be
- 1:29:14more proactive in Bitcoin, Meet other Bitcoiners. 100% perfect
- 1:29:19way to send this off guys. Bitcoin is not just about a
- 1:29:22technology Ledger, it's not just about the price.
- 1:29:26It's about the people and your sovereignty and your freedom.
- 1:29:29And part of that is building a resilient community around you.
- 1:29:34One day we'll get to the citadels.
- 1:29:36Until then, you got to have you know, you got to have your
- 1:29:39troops and the people behind you.
- 1:29:41So Congrats on that Brian. It.
- 1:29:43It really is incredible just to see how big orange pill app has
- 1:29:48grown and and the real life impact that you guys have had in
- 1:29:52the community. So shouts out to you and Mateo
- 1:29:54and everyone over there working shouts out to all the debs man.
- 1:29:57You guys are absolutely killing it.
- 1:29:59All right guys, on that note, this has been simply Bitcoin.
- 1:30:02Thank you for Luke for filling in last minute.
- 1:30:05Thank you, Brian for coming on again.
- 1:30:06Always love having Brian on here, guys, We will see you
- 1:30:09tomorrow. Same time as always, a little
- 1:30:11after 12:15 PM Eastern Time when we go live and of course, hit
- 1:30:16the subscribe button because we are dropping all kinds of fire
- 1:30:19content for you guys from Ruston, Dante, and Oceans.
- 1:30:22Literally no one else is doing what we're doing.
- 1:30:25We'll see you tomorrow, man Peace out.
- 1:30:27This has been your boy Opti. We'll see you tomorrow.
- 1:30:30Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
- 1:30:34Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
- 1:30:37independence.