Latest / Beliefs, Ballots, And BullDawgs / CFB Preseason Picks
Transcript
- Greg: Hey, what's up everybody? Welcome to the very first episode of Whiskey and Winners. Concept here is pretty damn simple. A few buddies, a couple of drinks, and a whole lot of sports talk. Hopefully a few winners along the way. Single be one of those shows where we sit and pretend like we're some sort of professional analyst, all dressed up in nice fancy suits, discussing the third down EPA for 45 minutes. We're just sports fans who like to gamble on sports, like to argue about sports and Every now and then one of us is gonna be right about something. Every week we're gonna sit down, we're gonna pour something we probably don't need, look at the games and the numbers and try to figure out where the hell the winners are. And we're gonna figure out where we're wrong. Hey, we're not gonna delete the tweets when we make a bad pick. We're not gonna pretend like it didn't happen. We're gonna keep score. But before we get to the first card, I wanna introduce you guys to the two guys who ⁓ decided to be degenerates and do this show with me. So chadwick: Yeah. Greg: Chad, let me ⁓ let me start with you. Tell everybody who you are, who you pull for, and ⁓ most importantly, what you drinking tonight. chadwick: So ⁓ first gonna start with a drink. It's a Bud Light. My name's Chad. Yeah, Shocker. ⁓ same drink for the last 20-something years. ⁓ name's Chad from Macon, Georgia. Currently reside ⁓ on St. Simon's Island, right outside of Brunswick on the East Coast. And ⁓ as you can see behind me, ⁓ I'm a Bama fan. ⁓ so all the hate that comes with that, whatever ⁓ we get in the chat, go for it. Greg: No way, soccer. I can't lie, dude. Even as a Georgia fan, I spent about a decade and a half pretty jealous of U Tide fans. That was a pretty damn strong run. chadwick: It r it really was and I've had conversations at bars and people get really mad that I come in with something in Alabama and I always ask ⁓ Who is your who is your rival? Isn't it Florida? And they always give me this crazy look and I'm like, So why are you mad because I'm wearing Alabama? Greg: it I Georgia's a unique foot. We we we could have a whole different you you gotta pay attention to my other show, Beliefs, Ballots and Bulldogs and get into the Georgia rivals and stuff like that. But we'll ⁓ we'll we'll get into all that. All right, Brian. Brian, tell us a little bit about who you are. Brian: Brian Nobles, I'm ⁓ from Columbus, Georgia, firefighter for about twenty years, into college football, love spet, love betting on sports, love watching sports and sipping on some ⁓ old Forester nineteen ten tonight. Greg: That is ⁓ that is a damn fine whiskey, my friend. Good selection. And ⁓ as as unshocking as it is for Chad to be drinking a Bud Light and Brian to be drinking straight whiskey, the the fact that I don't have a drink at all might be more shocking than anything. ⁓ but I am Bri Brian was there for the last drink I've had. I don't know when the next one will come. I don't think I'm done for life. ⁓ but right now I just I just don't have an interest in it. But I'm Greg. I'm gonna I'm gonna host this train wreck. I'm ⁓ chadwick: Well really weird, honestly. Yeah. Greg: I'm a UGA grad, I'm a die hard Georgia guy, lifelong dog, and it means I have absolutely no way of being objective on Georgia games, but I still try to pick every damn one of ⁓ But I I'll admit all that up front. I have ⁓ I have followed sports and gambling for what seems like the entirety of my adult career. I I think I've been gambling on sports before I was legally able to. So ⁓ that's that's where we are. And ⁓ you know, it this is this is about our our interest and hanging out and and just trying to pick a few winners and and have some fun. So let's ⁓ let's let's forget about all the introductions. Nobody really cares who we are. This is all gonna come down to whether or not we can ⁓ we can beat the number or not. So let's start let's start putting some picks on the paper. Brian's gonna be our record keeper. ⁓ the first show we're we're gonna do all of our preseason stuff. The ⁓ the segment we're gonna start with here is gonna pick in our conference winners. ⁓ we're gonna do the SEC, the ACC, the Big Ten, the Big Twelve. ⁓ the we're not gonna get into anything outside of the four big conferences. So Brian, we'll ⁓ we'll start with you. Who you who you got winning the SEC? Brian: SEC, I got Georgia at plus two eighty. Over I'm gonna give you who I think they're gonna be playing in the championship game, and it may shock some of you. But I'm high on this team this year, and that's gonna be the Oklahoma Sooners. I think they beat Oklahoma going off Kirby Smart. I gotta back Kirby Smart and then the sixteen returning starters that are returning players that had at least a hundred and fifty snaps on defense that Georgia's bringing back. I'm gonna have to back the dogs. Greg: All right. chadwick: Mm. Greg: I ⁓ Brian: For the SEC championship. Greg: Well, I let me go ahead and say this, that you and I did not coordinate any of this stuff, but just based on that first pick, you and I are already seeing some things the same way. Chad, who you got winning the SEC? Brian: Mm-hmm. chadwick: Yeah, right. ⁓ I'm taking Texas at plus three twenty-six. I love getting Arch Manning back. ⁓ returning ⁓ quarterback plus massive talent. Brutal though SEC schedule this year for Texas. ⁓ I got my long shot at Tennessee at plus nineteen. Greg: All right. I I like I I I gotta agree with Brian and and I'm not trying to say this because I'm a homer. I I think Georgia at plus two eighty is the best value on the board to win the SEC. I do think we're the best team. ⁓ I it it's just a question of whether or not we can have some guys that can step up at wide receiver or not. ⁓ we we you know, Texas is right there. Ole Miss is dangerous, Oklahoma, Alabama always, LSU with Kiffin now. ⁓ but I I gotta I gotta roll with Kirby and the boys. I think I I think getting plus two eighty with with Georgia is is a pretty strong bet if I'm ⁓ if I'm leaning that way. So all right, we'll move on. Who ⁓ Brian, who you got in the ACC? Brian: Phew, this one ⁓ is the easiest one of all to pick and it pains me to say it. As big a Florida State fan as I am. But I'm gonna have to take the Miami Hurricanes at minus one sixty. I don't believe there's anybody close to their talent in the ACC. I think they're gonna play SMU and I don't think it's gonna be close. I think there's a chance Miami goes undefeated this year. chadwick: Yeah. Me too. Yeah. Greg: All right. Chad, who you got in the ACC? chadwick: I'm on the other side. I do agree with you. I think Miami is strong as all get out. ⁓ I don't love the number minus 165 as what I got it at or see it at. ⁓ I'm going to find a little value in Louisville, plus 785. ⁓ Just Carson Beck being gone, things concern me there. ⁓ And then I got Florida State at a long shot, 40 to 1. Brian: I like it. Greg: All right, well I h I I I I'll I'll I'll chime in on both of you. Brian, I can get you minus one forty on the Miami pick for for our record sake. That was the best number I saw when I was looking today. So minus one forty can can go with your Miami. Chad, I can get you plus eight fifty on Louisville because I saw that number today. And that's that's where I saw the value to. I Brian, I'm with you. I think I think Miami is hands down the most talented team and and probably the safest bet in the ACC. But at plus eight fifty, that that Louisville ⁓ that's a sneaky good football team, I think. The schedule sets up well for them. ⁓ I I I'd take a shot at Louisville plus eight fifty. I I'm I'm with Chad on that one. chadwick: And I think for me guys, it's more of a I'm not looking for a straight up winner, like a favorite winner. I'm looking where is my value. If I can be anywhere from four to seven and it's value there with a good team, that's my pick. So I'm not gonna be the the best one out of this group, but that's what I'm looking at. Greg: Yeah. Brian: I was leaning on SMU. I feel SMU's got a shot, but Miami's just gonna be too tough in that conference. chadwick: You're strong. Greg: Yeah, I mean chad and you hit the nail on the head, Chad. It's it's a gambling themed show, so everything's about the value. I'm with you. If if if gun to my head, who do I think wins the ACC, I would have picked Miami. But as a as a gambler, I I'm gonna put I I'd sprinkle a little money on the Louisville plus eight fifty with you. chadwick: Absolutely. Mm-hmm. Greg: All right, let's let's move on. Let's hit into ⁓ my least favorite conference out there. What's ⁓ Brian, who you got to ⁓ to win the big ten? What would be your pick from a from a gambling perspective? chadwick: Ha ha ha. Brian: Big Ten, tough one. ⁓ I got Oregon Ducks winning the Big Ten at plus two sixty. I got ⁓ beating Ohio State. I feel the returning players they got coming back and who they were able to come back. I guess it's nice to have good money in your boosters to bring some players back that probably should be playing on Sunday this year. And their quarterback Dante Moore is one of ⁓ for sure. So I think that Oregon at plus two sixty was the way to go. For the big ten. Greg: All right. C L what you ⁓ what's your thoughts on the Big Ten? Where do you see the value on the board? chadwick: Two thoughts. If I was putting a thousand dollars on a play, I would take Ohio State all day long. I mean, you got Saiyan returning, Jeremiah Smith returns, undefeated conference record, number one preseason. ⁓ that's just such a strong number, plus one eighty nine, but Actually guys, I'm I'm looking for value. I'm on the back of the the middle of the line. I'm on Penn State plus 18th. Greg: I think Penn State is a the i is a sneaky good football team, but beyond that, I I think their schedule sets up well to where if they can show up for a couple of big moment games, I think they avoid a lot of landmines. And and I'm with I I I looked at that one. I I I I think there might be some value on Penn State. ⁓ i when I was trying to make my pick though, I I'm I'm with Brian. I Oregon at plus two sixty, I think, is the best value as far as picking a winner for the Big Ten. ⁓ again, I I think Ohio State is pretty probably the best the best team. I I think that's why there are slightly ⁓ better odds than Oregon. But I'm with you. Give me give me Dante Moore. I think that kid is special. I think he could he could make things difficult for for some ⁓ some defenses in the Big Ten. And you know that home field advantage in Eugene ain't nothing to play with. That's that's a long way for some of these Big Ten schools to be going. So I I I like Oregon plus two sixty, but that is that's an intriguing look, Chad. I like the I like the Penn State look as well. There's There's some value there and then with a pick like that you might have a good heads ch chance down the road as well. chadwick: I I already logged it in. Brian: What was what was the what was the odds on that one again, Chad? I missed you and then ⁓ I mean it's hard bet against Matt Campbell. chadwick: I got pinnacle plus ⁓ Head Coach Matt Campbell, ⁓ for the line I picked it at plus eighteen. Like dead even. Brian: Nice. Greg: All right, let's roll on, let's move forward to chadwick: Well actually it was 1867, my bad. That says if Campbell ⁓ immediately fixes the program was my model based on a Campbell. Greg: Well, ⁓ with the tradition and the resources at Penn State, I like Matt Campbell as a head coach. I'm with you. That's that's one where for for a value pick, that's a big juicy number that you can get a decent return or at least have a good opportunity to hedge down the road, I think. chadwick: Yeah, like I you guys will win more picking the plus one eighty nines and the two forty ones. I'm in the middle of the road. You know me, ⁓ Greg. I'm a parlay gambler type dude. Greg: You have always ⁓ you've always liked to swing for the fences, that's for sure. All right, let's move on to ⁓ to the Big Twelve. The ⁓ the the conference that has almost been forgotten about, but not quite yet. It's still hanging on there. B Nobles, who ⁓ who where's your value for the Big Twelve winner? Brian: I think the winner of the conference is going to be Texas Tech, but that ain't where I'm going with that. I'm going to go with Kansas State plus 1200. They have five of their first six games at home. They don't play Texas Tech, BYU, or Utah in conference. This is Avery Johnson's third year as a starter, so is he going to finally do what they've been saying he was going to do? So I'm going to back Colin Klein and Kansas State. Greg: I like it. I like I actually saw ⁓ at plus fourteen hundred. Brian: Like that better. Greg: Patrick, who you got in the Big Twelve? chadwick: I am gonna roll with Utah at plus 800. Kyle Whittingham, 11 win team, 8-1. My big concern right now, and the model like gave me tons of like exclamation points, Texas Tech. Greg: All right, I like it. I like it. This is gonna be the first time we've ⁓ we've got a a one conference where none of us have the same pick. I'm I'm I I'm I'm throwing my coins on on BYU plus six hundred. I I I look I'm I'm with you guys. I think Texas Tech is there's a reason why they're the favorite. Texas Tech is likely to win this conference. ⁓ but i from a gambling perspective, I th I'm not laying the even money on anybody for the Big Twelve right now. You they're Texas Tech's one injury away from being irrelevant. chadwick: Yeah. That's not bad. Greg: ⁓ so I I wouldn't there's just no value of that number, but I I like BYU plus six hundred. That would kind of caught my eye as something maybe worth a little. chadwick: Well, actually might sprinkle some on BYU. I I missed that. I overlooked it completely. Mm. Greg: I think ⁓ I I I'm not entirely sure BYU's not a playoff team when all said and done. chadwick: Yeah, let's get ⁓ through halfway through the season, see how the quarterback looks. Greg: All right, so let's ⁓ let's talk about your ⁓ let's move on to individual players award. If you gotta we'll start with a Heisman winner and then anything else beyond that. If you want talk about some ⁓ some individual players you're on the lookout for, possible award winners or just a name to throw out there. ⁓ and again, this is just where you maybe not who you think is the best player, but ⁓ of of the existing Heisman candidates right now, if you could pick one to throw some money on, who who you got. ⁓ we'll we'll switch up the order. Chad, we'll let you ⁓ we'll let you pick the first Heisman candidate. chadwick: Is it okay if I throw like at least two or three out? We good with that? Greg: Like do wherever you see some value, man, if you want to sprinkle and spray the board, I know how you like to do it. chadwick: I I mean I think CJ Carr is a lock to win it. ⁓ but I I'm not there's there's not enough value there for a Heisman trophy. Anybody can have a great ⁓ great year. I am at the bottom of the list. ⁓ Lenora Sellers, thirty nine to one. That's my ⁓ big bet. And ⁓ I've taken Bryce Underwood at forty three to one. ⁓ I just Michigan Wolverine right now, I'm high on. ⁓ they've got a Steady and stellar backfield. They just got two more ⁓ running backs, ⁓ sededron in the portal. So that's where I'm going. Norris Sellers and Bryce Underwood. Those are my two, but if I had to do just a I think a guaranteed pick, I would probably roll CJ Carr. Greg: I gotcha. I like it. I I I I never thought I'd be hosting a college football podcast to start with, much less one where somebody throw up there a South Carolina quarterback as a Heisman winner. Holy shit. All right, Brian, you you I'm gonna I'm gonna throw that grenade in your lap. George Rogers is still around. But Brian, who who who you got for a Heisman? ⁓ Brian: Really? chadwick: Yeah. Brian: He threw five good players out there, and the two that I have, but I'm only going to lock up one of them, are different than them five. So I came down to Dante Moore of Oregon and Darien Minsa of Miami. I feel like the one I'm going to take is Darien Minsa at plus 1,000, as much as it pains me again to pick a Miami player. Like I said, they're loading offensive line. He's got Malachi Tony plus his top receiver from Duke. He won the ACC last year at Duke with over 4,000 yards, six. Greg: Right. ⁓ Brian: ⁓ thirty four touchdowns, only six picks, and he's playing in Shannon Dawson's offense that produced Cam Ward and I think he's better than Cam Ward. So I'm gonna go with Darien Minsa at plus one thousand. chadwick: Yeah. Greg: Y y'all y'all threw out all the names that I was looking at and and and kind of rattling around and my noggin. ⁓ I I I I looked at Dante. Look, it's as much as we l ⁓ hate to admit it, it's a quarterback award most most most years these days. So it's you know, between Arch Manning, Dante Moore and things like that, I I I I think it's gonna be a quarterback again, as much as I hate to admit it. I I'm with Chad. I I think from a betting standpoint, if you give me one pick, I'm going with CJ Carr. It it every every Notre Dame game is on TV. Their schedule is an absolute joke. They're gonna win 10 or 11 games for sure. They they play teams where they can name their score. We know that Notre Dame gets extra votes on anything vote related. ⁓ Look, plus 700, a Notre Dame quarterback. Give me CJ Carr. I think there's some value there. I I didn't have enough time to really dig into the rest of the board, but I'm gonna throw out there. The only other thing. chadwick: Yeah. Greg: ⁓ Bolitnikov Award or just another player to watch ⁓ Jeremiah Smith is other whirly. If he can get his head screwed on straight, that guy is virtually uncoverable at wide receiver. He is he is about two two and a half inches from being Randy Moss. Brian: He's the best player in the country to me, but it's a it's a quarterback award, like we said. chadwick: Yeah, no. Greg: Did y'all have a chance? Did y'all go through were there any other awards you looked at, anything else, like the Bolitnikov, David O'Brien, anything else y'all saw any value on? chadwick: ⁓ I didn't find one particular award, but there was one running back that I really liked and I I I've looked at him for the last two days and that was Yeah, just give me just a moment. Was it Bryce Underwood? No, that was this Heisman. ⁓ come back to me. Let me get back. I'll find in just a second. Greg: All right. Brian, did you see any other individual player awards that you were looking at? Brian: I thought of some players but I couldn't find the odds on some of these individual awards, so but I did pick Dope Walker Award. I feel like the player to beat on that's gonna be Keywine Lacey. That old miss. Fifteen hundred and something yards last year. So we're on the same page with that. Belindakoff, yeah, Balindakoff award it I don't see how you go against Jeremiah Smith. I think they might as well just hand that to him now. Yeah, I mean Malachi Tony may give him a run, but chadwick: That's it, that's who I got. That's exactly who I'm looking at. Yeah. We're on the same page. Brian: Jeremiah Smith's going to be tough. The Ben Derrick Award, I got Colin Simmons out of Texas. He led the SEC in sacks last year. He's only going to get bigger and stronger. And then the Derrick, Davy O'Brien usually goes with the Heisman Trophy winner, so I'm going to have to go with Darien Minson. chadwick: I wanna I wanna touch on ⁓ Lacey. ⁓ total touches, ⁓ led the entire FBS with three hundred and six rushing attempts, amassed over fifteen hundred rushing yards, locked twenty-four rushing touchdowns, forced eighty-four missed tackles. Greg: Well well, I could tell you ⁓ as a team that had to play them some of bitches twice to try to tackle and keywon lacey didn't look like any damn fun. And between him being a absolute bulldozer running the football and Trinidad Chamblers turning into Superman in the freaking championship game, ⁓ old miss is a scary offense with those two guys. Brian: Yeah. Mm-hmm. chadwick: I agree. And ⁓ Lacey's got a different gear. If he cat if he gets open, he can hit six gear. Greg: He is he is one of those that a and you know, there's a lot of really good college football backs. He's that one that I think kind of like Jeremiah Love last year, where he's one that NFL people are already looking at as going, that might be a first round NFL type pick, because I'm with you. He's got the body style, he's got the physique, the toughness, the physicality, and that top end gear that most running backs these days don't have. Brian: You can get him Heisman odds at plus ten thousand. chadwick: Woof. I didn't look at the odds, but Greg: It's a quarterback award. Brian: Right. That's the only thing about it. chadwick: Uh-huh. Greg: All right. Well we we obviously because of the the nature of those we were gonna we were gonna cross fire a little bit and have some overlap with picks and stuff like that. But hopefully as we as we get into the over under win totals and we were all kind of looking at the the entire board on our own independently, hopefully we'll have some different ⁓ different perspectives and offer some different information for for anybody that might stumble across this show and end up listening to us. ⁓ let's let's start. Brian, give me ⁓ give me an over under win total for the year that you caught. Brian: I know it don't sound like I'm a FSU fan after this, but Miami over ten and a half at minus one fifteen. There's only one losable game on their schedule, and that's Notre Dame. So I can't see them going any worse than eleven and one. I feel like they're probably gonna go twelve and ⁓ The only thing that scares me about Miami is Mario Kirk Crystal Ball coaching Miami. Because he if he get if he gets in a close game, he is known to lose one. Greg: Ask for I ⁓ Brian: We can think about Louisville from last year, SMU from last year, Georgia Tech trying to run the ball for no reason two or three years ago and then lose that game at the end. That's the only thing that scares me about them. Other than that, I feel they're eleven and one or twelve and Greg: If if as a head coach on your resume you have a loss where all you had to do was assume the victory position and you still manage to lose, man, I'm telling you, that's a hard team to put my money on for a season long. He will he Mario will find a way to screw it up somewhere. They are the most talented team of the ACC. The schedule's an absolute joke. I would take the under if you forced me to play that. I just Brian: Mm-hmm. Greg: I I think Miami caught lightning in a bottle last year with Carson transferring in. I don't Miami may win the ACC, but I I don't think they I I think they lose more than one game. Chad, you got any thoughts on that pick? chadwick: Not on that pick and I couldn't find the over or under on the number I wanted, but it's a small, it's a thin line, but I like James Madison. Greg: All right, and what the what was their season win total? chadwick: I couldn't find it. I look I looked through different places and I got three different numbers and ⁓ I was just kinda like where am I at in the middle? So I don't wanna be incorrect ⁓ live. Greg: Yeah, I my first one I'm gonna throw out there and look, I I apologize. It is absolutely juicy. ⁓ and it's it's an ugly schedule, but ⁓ what do y'all touched on? Y'all y'all think Oklahoma makes the SEC title game. I I got Oklahoma on over seven and a half. ⁓ it was at minus one forty-eight, which I hate play laying that kind of juice on anything. But I mean, a season long total, I don't mind tying other funds. And ⁓ even with that brutal schedule. I think Oklahoma can get to eight wins. I I just I feel like they do. I th I honestly I I've got ⁓ going nine and three on my model. ⁓ but I'm we I I wouldn't be surprised if they don't sneak up on some people and and and possibly have a chance to to get in there and and be in the SEC title game. Brian: Yeah, I ⁓ I was looking at that one strong too. chadwick: I don't I I don't know, that's great. I mean, it's hard to bet against like teams like Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas. I mean, those are the ones that you always see middle of the year and you're like, Are could they be the next one? Greg: Well, and I and I and I'm not gonna lie, when I when I first looked at that Oklahoma at seven and a half number, it jumped off the screen at me and I'm going, Holy cow, that can't be right. It seemed like an easy one. And then I looked at the schedule. They have got an absolute brutal schedule. ⁓ so it's not it's not hard to see how you could schedule or see them losing five games. ⁓ but I I I went through my model several times. I think Oklahoma wins eight at eight at least, maybe nine games. And That that's my of the season win totals, I think Oklahoma would probably be my strongest play. Chad you got a Brian: You what odds you find it at? chadwick: Okay, that's Greg: I had it I don't I can't remember which book I saw, but I got it over seven and a half at minus one forty eight. Brian: Mm-hmm. Minus one forty eight. I found James Madison at minus one thirty. At Caesar's chadwick: I don't love it. Could you buy the hook on that seven and a half or no? Brian: Yeah, you can bust it. Greg: They won't let you do that on season win totals. Brian: Mm-mm. Greg: All right, Chad, ⁓ other than James Madison, who else you got? chadwick: you guys are gonna laugh. New Mexico. I don't have the number on it. ⁓ why I have nine it's nine wins, six and two in the conference at nearly three and one. The only concern I really have right now is they have three ⁓ coaches in transition. So I mean I'm not looking big like SCC. I'm looking I find easier money in some of these teams a lot of people don't look at. And Mexico. Greg: You and I you and I have been talking gambling for twenty years and and i I've always thought, especially at the college level, that some of these lower level matchups are where you can find some value because there's just not as many eyeballs on them. There's not as much information out there. I kid you not, the absolute best follow I ever had on anybody online gambling was a guy who only bet on East Carolina football and basketball. And he was absolutely ridiculous picking East Carolina games because he knew that team inside and out. chadwick: He cut the over. For the last three years, if you're bet East Carolina and the over, ⁓ the over is probably like a shoe in. ⁓ what was it s seven or eight years ago when Oregon every game they were putting up fifty, sixty points by themselves. I mean, you can find these teams, especially with New Mexico and UNLV, they throw the ball a lot. Greg: Yeah, yeah, no doubt. All right, Brian, give us another ⁓ give us another season win total. Brian: All right. With my trends, you're gonna notice they're all juicy, but to me, you gotta lock your money up for fourteen weeks. I might as well take something that I feel is gonna hit. So next one I got ⁓ winning or have a chance to win the big twelve, so I had to go with them over seven and a half, and that's Kansas State at minus one eighty five. And I already spoke about why I thought they would be competing in the Big Twelve, so that's the reason I feel eight and four I feel is their floor. Nine and three, somewhere around in there, so s over seven and a half I feel like is gonna hit. Greg: I like it. I like that one a lot. I I I looked at that one as well. My ⁓ my second one, and actually I I love the number on this one. ⁓ Chad, you said you you were gonna sprinkle a little on Lenora Sellers to win the Heisman. I if he does, this one's gonna look good 'cause I I I'm taking South Carolina over six and a half wins at plus one fifteen. ⁓ just I mean the SEC's brutal, but I'm with you. That South Carolina's a gritty team. I like Shane Beamer. chadwick: That's Yeah. Thank you. Greg: You got an experienced quarterback. And look, I I'm not I don't think Lenora Sellers wins the Heisman, but I do know that that guy's a difficult matchup. He's the kind of guy that will single handedly win two or three games. South Carolina plus one fifteen. Give me give me South Carolina over six and a half season wins. chadwick: The only one thing I'd probably push back on, 'cause it it's so juicy, maybe look at the over and under or total passing yards for the year for him and see what that number is. And probably whatever it is right now, I'd probably go I'd lay over. You might get more value for your money. Greg: Yeah, well and and the defense is gonna make him throw the ball. They're not gonna let they're not gonna let South Carolina run or let him beat them with their le his legs. chadwick: Right. So what what's the what is the over and under for total passing yards for the year? Greg: I have no idea. chadwick: ⁓ my bad. Brian: Yeah. Greg: I got the numbers that I did the research on. That's what I brought to the table. chadwick: I'll look it up. I'll have it ready for the next Brian: Ha ha Greg: I w I would say you could just follow up with all this on all your social media accounts and let people know where you're ⁓ when you find other plays, but you don't do social media. chadwick: I have no social media, brother. Only them Facebook and I don't even use that really. Greg: All right, you got the ⁓ you got the other season win totals you looked at? chadwick: I don't. Not for this record, nope. Greg: Brian, you got anything else you were looking at? Brian: I got three more. They're all like I said juicy, but I feel like they'll hit. So Greg: I got I think I got two or three more as well. Go ahead, we'll ⁓ we'll go back and forth. Who's ⁓ who's your next one? Brian: Chad, I like this one. I got ⁓ except for the line, but I got UNL V over seven and a half. I think they have a shot to get into the college football playoff as a group of five team. That's at minus seven. Seventy. I mean, that's a Dan Mullen coach team. Twenty twenty three, nine wins, twenty twenty four eleven wins, twenty twenty five, ten wins. Boise State is no longer in the Mountain West. They're in the pack twelve. So I can't see them going any less than nine and three. So chadwick: ⁓ Yeah, and looks like they were sixty two. Brian: The only thing that scares me about that is their front seven and Jackson Arnold at quarterback. chadwick: And you also got huge offensive upside. You didn't really lose many. But you got a new coach coming in. Greg: All right, I'm ⁓ I'm gonna move on. My ⁓ my third ⁓ season win total, and back in a ⁓ in a previous lifetime of gambling expertise, I ⁓ I had a rule against betting against Bill Belichick. ⁓ but that was the NFL, that was with Tom Brady and the Patriots. Give me under for the North Carolina Tar Hills, under four and a half. That is a brutal bad football team. They didn't do crap through the portal. I don't see like I I'm sorry. I think Bill Belichick may be the greatest football coach of all time. They have zero talent on that roster. It is a train wreck in Chapel Hill. Give me the under four and a half for UNC. chadwick: That would be a sweat. That's a sweat for sure. ⁓ Greg: I know dude. I I know it is. I mean, I hate betting unders. I hate betting unders for even short events. I certainly hate betting a season long under. But I I mean, I ran the numbers. I I just don't think they get to five wins. I look at that schedule. Tell me where you find five teams, find five teams they're beaten. chadwick: I can't. I'm not. Yeah. Brian: Yeah. I I I definitely looked at that one also. Greg: ⁓ Brian Brian, give me your next one. Brian: ⁓ Michigan under eight and a half minus one eighty. Their schedule's brutal. They gotta play Oregon and Ohio State on the road. They gotta play Penn State, Iowa and Oklahoma. Greg: I like it. Brian: I mean it's eight and four, I feel is like where they're gonna land at, which is under the eight and a half. The only thing that scares me about them is you don't know like Chad picked as a ⁓ Heisman contender, you don't know what you're gonna get out of Bryce Underwood. That kid's got plenty of talent. He could go over that number. And you got Kyle Whittenham now as your head football coach, so there's a good chance that that doesn't hit, but I I'd I had to take it. Greg: with you I I'm obviously an SEC homer but but the Big Ten is is legit these days and Michigan's schedule is brutal. it's a schedule that when you go down there you you go okay there's there's for sure the there's two or three slip ups along the way and then you you got another two or three where it's coin flip games and and I'm with you. I I I I I I looked at that one as well. Chad you got any thoughts on the Michigan team total? chadwick: ⁓ I don't on the total, but I read in three different places today that they have probably the second to third hardest schedule out of the whole league this year. Greg: Yeah. That's it's a brutal schedule. ⁓ I I I think again I I'm I'm a fan of the coach. I I I I'm I'm excited to see Underwood at quarterback, but I I'm with you, Brian. I I like that. It wasn't it didn't make the cut for my sheet, but I I I didn't look at that one as well. The the next one, Chad, this is ⁓ this one's right up your alley, brother. Give me the Georgia Southern Eagles over four and a half wins. chadwick: Which is yeah. You would pick the place I graduated from. What's the line? Greg: It was minus one twenty. Georgia So Georgia Southern over four and a half. Look, I I love Clay Hilton. Clay Hilton wins football game. All he needs five. Look at the Charleston Southern, Jacksonville State, Coastal Carolina, Ap State, Marshall, Georgia State, Louisiana Tech. I I only but look, I only need five wins. Georgia Southern, Clay Hilton. I I think they I think they get six or seven, but chadwick: It'd never be that state. I wouldn't I would have Greg: Georgia Southern always that's a winning football program. They're gonna go over five hundred. Give me give me Georgia Southern over four and a half wins. chadwick: I would pass and I would say, please tell me the last time they've been a winning team. Besides when Paul Johnson and Erk ⁓ Russell were there. Brian: Yeah. Greg: ⁓ I mean it ain't been that long. chadwick: Yeah, it has. Paul Johnson. Brian: I think they had a winning season the first season they were in the FBS, but it's been a while. chadwick: It's been like fifteen, sixteen years. Greg: Georgia Southern over four and a half. Book it. Brian: Got it. Greg: Ryan, you got anybody left on your seat? chadwick: You're saying over, I'm gonna take under. So that'll be my pick for it. Brian: Yeah, I'm hard. Greg: All right. chadwick: No. Brian: I I d I'll go back and get that line here in a minute and find out what it is. All right, my last one I got I gotta take a drink for this one 'cause you know where it's going. Greg: All right, let's go. ⁓ you got one more? All right, what you got? chadwick: Why have we not talked about Ohio State? I mean, twelve and two and they were nine and ⁓ at home. Greg: You could talk about anybody you want, brother. You're you're on this show. chadwick: I know. What what is the line on that right now? Greg: Well you gonna have to you're not gonna be on this show if you keep coming on here asking for the lines, do your own work. chadwick: I can't d I I'm on a MacBook. Brian: Well I was stayed at over nine and a half ⁓ minus one eighty. chadwick: No, they would put that hook on nine, wouldn't they? Greg: Well they always do on season win totals. Brian: Georgia Southern at under four and a half was plus one thirty five. chadwick: Yeah. Greg: And and you're laying nine and a half and you're laying two to one, that's a terrible investment. They'll probably get there, but that's a terrible investment. chadwick: At pass. Brian: All right, the last last you already know where where it's going and that's why I had to take a drink of of liquor. But ⁓ it's gonna be Florida State under six and a half at minus one hundred eighty. This schedule's tough by the AC stand A C C standard, even though it's A C C schedule. I don't see where they got any better from last year. I mean Greg: All right, Brian, who who was your last season win total? Ha ha ha. Brian: Me and you've talked about it before. I feel like that they wanted to make a coaching change last year. They knew what kind of schedule they had coming up. So instead of making a change, they're going to let Mike Norvell wear those losses this year. They got to play Louisville and Pitt on Friday night row games. I can see them going three and nine. I can see them going eight and four. So I'm going to stay with the under six and a half. I feel like that if they lose the SMU game on Labor Day night, they get throttled by Alabama and Tuscaloosa. Then they're going to play Virginia. Good chance they lose that game, and I think Mike Norvell's fired before Halloween. So I would project it as a five point seven. The only thing that scares me is they play in an ACC. Greg: Well I I will tell you, Brian. I will tell you that you know, I know you pretty well, and I knew you'd find a way to to get the emotional hedge bet. Like I I always I do it every Saturday betting against Georgia. I knew you'd come in on the Florida State season total under. I ran my model so many times to try to find a way to get on the other side just to make it interesting. I just could I I mean, look, I could see some fluky things happening for the Knowles. I can't get them over six wins. I'm with you. I think I think at six and a half. That number I would have to go under I wouldn't play it just 'cause the juice, but I I think under six and a half is a pretty safe bet. chadwick: I found one, Gregory, that I had written down. It was TCU over six and a half wins. Greg: Well, I'm glad you decided to participate. chadwick: Shut up. It's minus one seventy six OS Juicy. Greg: It is. I do like it though. I think TCU gets to seven or eight pretty easy. Alright, Brian, you got a you got an ability to kinda give us a quick recap. Brian: On what everybody pick, I got Greg: Yeah, well ⁓ well hey here's here's what I want to do. I want to ⁓ for this episode we're gonna mix it up a little bit, but I wanna I wanna do a quick recap before we close out, and then we're gonna do we're gonna create a whiskey and winners three-way parlay to close out every show. That's gonna be one money line piece. You're just responsible to give me one winner, no spread, just a winner. ⁓ don't be an asshole. Don't pick a four touchdown favorite that adds no value. Let's let's try to put together a three team parlay at the end of everything. that'll have a little bit of value. But since we're not doing that for this week, this week we're just going to go with out of everything you threw out there today, for anybody who stumbles across this and ends up listening to this show, if you could tell them to follow one pick you gave out tonight, I want you to be thinking about which pick that one is. So Brian, give us a quick recap and then we'll ⁓ we'll close it with the the one bet to leave with. Brian: Alright, quick recap. Chad's picks, I got James Madison over eight and a half, New Mexico over seven and a half, Georgia Southern under four and a half, and TCU over six and a half. ACC champion is going to be Louisville Cardinals, Big 12 Utah, Big Ten Penn State, SEC Texas, and the Heisman winner is CJ Carr. chadwick: Yeah. Brian: For Greg's picks, got Oklahoma over seven and a half, South Carolina over six and a half, North Carolina under four and a half, Georgia Southern over four and a half, Louisville as well to win the ACC, BYU to win the Big 12, Oregon to win the Big Ten, Georgia to win the SEC, and CJ Carr again to win the Heisman. My picks are Greg: I had one ⁓ I I I missed one ⁓ one season win total I forgot to give out. I liked ⁓ BYU over eight and a half. That was at minus one twenty. Brian: Got it. All right, my picks to close that part out is Miami over ten and a half, Kansas State over seven and a half, UNLV over seven and a half, Michigan under eight and a half, Florida State under six and a half, Miami to win the ACC, Kansas State to win the Big 12, Oregon to win the Big Ten, Georgia to win the SEC. chadwick: ⁓ yeah. Brian: I'm gonna give you my national champion because I get on my spreadsheet. Oregon's gonna win the national championship at plus seven fifty. And Darren Mensah to win the Heisman Trophy at plus one thousand. Greg: All right. All right, Brian, you're on a roll. Give us ⁓ give us your one pick to leave with. Of all the picks you had on tonight's show, give me the one pick you would ⁓ you feel the best about. Brian: Darren Mensa winning the Heisman Trophy at plus one thousand. Greg: Beautiful. All right, Chad. Your ⁓ your closing arguments, anything you want to throw out there and then your one pick you ⁓ off the show that you like the best. chadwick: Mm. You know, CJ Carr still stands out to me, man. Greg: And we ⁓ plus seven hundred's a good number too. chadwick: It's a good number. He completed sixty-six point seven percent of passes. He averaged close to ten yards, I think, per reception in his first twelve starts. And ⁓ preseason odds listed near the very top of the futures market on the platform, just like FanDuel and across everywhere else. So everyone's kind of seeing the same thing we're seeing, and they've got Arch Manning right below him. It's hard to everyone. Greg: Yeah, arts just seem like too obvious. chadwick: We you and I have been doing this for twenty years in a gym. We were looking at base at football bets at nine o'clock in the morning, saying, ⁓ it's too obvious and we picked the other way and the obvious one. I don't know. Greg: All right, well I'm ⁓ I I'm gonna leave you with this. My ⁓ I and I I like the the national title Oregon pick for some value. I I I think out of everything I threw out there tonight, I I like Oregon winning the Big Ten at plus two sixty. I think there's some value there. Everybody loves Ohio State. Dante Moore, Dan Lanning, the Oregon Ducks, I think are the class of the Big Ten. I think the experience is there, and I just I like the fact that they're kind of coming in a little bit under the radar with all the Ohio State love. Oregon Ducks to win the Big Ten plus two sixty would be my ⁓ my kind of my play of the night. Anybody got anything before I close this out of here? chadwick: No, I wish everybody luck this year and I hope we ⁓ are able to bring some value to some people and ⁓ put some money in everybody's pockets. Greg: Hey, that's that's the name of the game. Brian, did you finish your whiskey? chadwick: Absolutely. Brian: I agree. ⁓ this is number three, but yes, it's about finished. I just had to pick I just had to pick Florida State to lose seven to eight ball games. I had to drink more than one glass. Greg: Huh? Ha have one more for me. chadwick: Yeah. Greg: All right, well that's it for tonight, guys. We are we're officially on record, which means hey, a few months from now we're either gonna look like geniuses or hey, we're gonna have audio video evidence of just how stupid we all are. But either way, we had fun and hopefully this continues to be entertaining. And that's episode one of Whiskey and Winners. If ⁓ if you're listening, ⁓ tell us what you think. Tell us which picks you like, what you agree with, what you think we're absolute fools for. ⁓ and and and tell us ⁓ tell us tell us who your favorite handicapper on the show is. I'd be curious to find that out. chadwick: ⁓ you hear you go. Greg: But more important than that, hey, ⁓ save the receipts cause we damn sure are we keeping records here. Pour something good, bet something smart, and we'll see ya on the next episode of Whiskey and Winners. Night guys. chadwick: Good night guys. How are you going? Brian: Night.