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Ukrainian Independence Day mired with Russian airborne barrage · Kvetch & Release

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Ukraine's president, Vladimir Zelinsky, condemned Russia's overnight and early morning
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: barrage on Ukraine. Said it was vile, said it involved
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: over one hundred missiles of various types and about one
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  Speaker 1: hundred of those Shahad drones. Those are manufactured by Iran.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Ukraine's leader said there were deaths, dozens of injuries and
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: the attack caused a lot of damage to the energy
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  Speaker 1: sector in Ukraine. And this is an ongoing war that
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Russia has launched. And to give us an update as
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  Speaker 1: to where things stand. Joining me right now is the
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  Speaker 1: chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa, Dominique
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  Speaker 1: Rrel joins me right now. How are you doing?
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  Speaker 2: Okay?
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  Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you for joining. So I guess if
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  Speaker 1: you could just give us a rundown, I suppose as
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  Speaker 1: to where things stand right now in this war as
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  Speaker 1: it's been going on now, you know, for as long
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: as it has been it's.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: Actually two and a half years. Ukraine has celebrated, not
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  Speaker 2: if it's celebrated is the right word, but commemorated it's
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  Speaker 2: independence yesterday August twenty four, independence acquired in nineteen ninety one.
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  Speaker 2: So I guess we're at what thirty three years of independence,
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  Speaker 2: But it also coincided literally with the two two and
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  Speaker 2: a half point a year's point in the war twenty
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  Speaker 2: four February twenty two, twenty four August twenty four to
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  Speaker 2: two and a half years. There's actually a lot going
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  Speaker 2: on right now in the war, and it's going in
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  Speaker 2: all directions. Catastrophic missile attack today was one of the worst,
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  Speaker 2: if not the worst, of the entire war throughout Ukraine,
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  Speaker 2: including in Kiev. So the reports we have is that
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  Speaker 2: people had to stay in shelters for almost eight hours,
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  Speaker 2: like in we have images in the subway stations in Kiev.
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  Speaker 2: We don't have the full scope of damages in terms
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  Speaker 2: of civilian casualties and all the infrastructure, particularly energy infrastructure
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  Speaker 2: points that were hit. We know that the dam was
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  Speaker 2: hit in the around Kiev, and that's that could be
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  Speaker 2: very dangerous actually if if, if that dam were to
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  Speaker 2: be even more seriously damaged in future attacks. So the
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  Speaker 2: aim of these attacks remained the same for the past years,
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  Speaker 2: to disable the ability for Ukraine to produce energy and electricity.
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  Speaker 2: So it's affecting of course power, it's affecting even access
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  Speaker 2: to water and the upcoming winter will be very, very
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  Speaker 2: difficult when the heating season starts. So that hasn't changed
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  Speaker 2: from the Russian perspective is to try to break the
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  Speaker 2: will of Ukraine by going after infrastructure. It's not working.
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  Speaker 2: That is, Ukrainian resolve is not broken.
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  Speaker 1: So what is it? I mean, how does the Ukrainian
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  Speaker 1: spirit stay strong amidst these attacks? Two and a half
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  Speaker 1: years into this war. One would think that it would
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  Speaker 1: become overwhelming and eventually you would succumb to it.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, it's quite extraordinary, but what we've seen in the
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  Speaker 2: past weeks is an attempt by ukraineically basically to break
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  Speaker 2: from the gloom and doom, even though they're being again attacked,
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  Speaker 2: also losing grounds on the Eastern front in Dunbas. There
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  Speaker 2: is a strategically important town in Pakrovsk that maybe on
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  Speaker 2: the verge of falling the next days, weeks, months, and
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  Speaker 2: that could that could be quite problematic for the army
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  Speaker 2: to hold on to that front. And we kept hearing
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  Speaker 2: the reality the Russia has more soldiers, is willing to
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  Speaker 2: have more of it, So many hundreds of you know,
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  Speaker 2: tens of dozens of soldiers being killed at the front
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  Speaker 2: doesn't appear to be a factor for the Russian political regimes,
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  Speaker 2: and they have more ammunitions. But what Ukraine has done
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  Speaker 2: in the past weeks just to change the narrative. So
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  Speaker 2: the vaded Russia. So that's this totally unexpected incursion into
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  Speaker 2: a province in northern north of Ukraine called Kursk. Now,
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine is occupying a fairly large territory and it's the
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  Speaker 2: first incursion into Russian soul since World War Two, basically
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  Speaker 2: challenging the United States in particular to finally give them
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  Speaker 2: permission to hit Russia at the source. What do I
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  Speaker 2: mean by that? We have the devastating bombing all over
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine today, but these bombings originate from fighter jets that
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  Speaker 2: are taking off from military airports across Russia. Ukraine does
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  Speaker 2: not have the permission to use long range Western missiles,
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  Speaker 2: particularly American ones, but so European ones that had American components.
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  Speaker 2: So the Americans have to give permission to hit these
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  Speaker 2: military airports so to prevent basically to prevent Russia or
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  Speaker 2: to deter Russia from engaging in the kind of bonding
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  Speaker 2: that they've done today. But the US has been resisting
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  Speaker 2: for fear of escalation. Now you kindly telling the US
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  Speaker 2: listen were evading Russia. That was supposed to be the
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  Speaker 2: ultimate red line. It is not. So far. The Russian
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  Speaker 2: reaction has been very muted, and therefore, giving us the
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  Speaker 2: permission to actually hit these military airports may not lead
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  Speaker 2: to World War three after all. That's you know, the
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  Speaker 2: fear of escalation. So that's where we are.
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  Speaker 1: So it's a very real fear of escalation. But it
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  Speaker 1: doesn't seem as if Putin is willing to respond in
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  Speaker 1: the way that so many in the West thought. Was
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  Speaker 1: it a bold gambit for President Zelensky to order that
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  Speaker 1: invasion or does it? I mean, it seems like it's
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  Speaker 1: played out.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, it is a gambit, of course, it's and it's
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  Speaker 2: it's it's a big risk because the next question is
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  Speaker 2: how far can Ukraine go in Russia? And then how
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  Speaker 2: much will they be able to hold their positions and
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  Speaker 2: what exactly do they want to achieve strategically in doing this,
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  Speaker 2: because they had to move some of their best units
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  Speaker 2: from the Eastern Front to Kursk in order to do that,
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  Speaker 2: and so the counter argument is that you know, you
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  Speaker 2: weakening one front to go after another. But I think
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  Speaker 2: the clearly the intent is political is it's basically, as
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  Speaker 2: I said.
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  Speaker 1: To.
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  Speaker 2: Show that the Russian red lines are a bluff, and
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  Speaker 2: so far they seemed to be a bluff in terms of,
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  Speaker 2: you know, you go across an international border and the
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  Speaker 2: Russia is pretending and it's not happening. Now Putsin has
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  Speaker 2: not deterred yet, but he's been deterred on other fronts.
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  Speaker 2: We don't talk much about what happened in the Crimea region,
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  Speaker 2: but basically, the much vaulted and very strategically important Black
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  Speaker 2: Sea fleet of Russia and Crimea, Crimea that has been
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  Speaker 2: kind of an extent the last ten years ago has
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  Speaker 2: been completely removed because Ukraine removed and moved to Russian port.
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  Speaker 2: Because Ukraine has been able systematically to bomb that part
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  Speaker 2: of Crimea with the blessing of the Americans and the Europeans,
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  Speaker 2: because Crimea is not considered Russian territory, so the terrance
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  Speaker 2: works in important aspects. The questions can it work now
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  Speaker 2: with the bombing if the situation is to change thanks
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  Speaker 2: to the Ukrainian initial That's something to follow closely.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Last question, I know that I don't have much more
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  Speaker 1: time with you, but we do have a approaching US election,
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  Speaker 1: and we're looking now at whether it be Vice President
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  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris who becomes president, or former President Trump getting
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  Speaker 1: back into the role. Who do you think would be
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: the best president to bring about peace? But also no,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: you know, not capitulation to President Putin.
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  Speaker 2: Well, that's kind of an obvious answer that we already
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: know that what Donald Trump's position is on the Ukraine War.
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  Speaker 2: Just last year when he kind of asserted himself as
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  Speaker 2: once again the leader of the Republican Party and the
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  Speaker 2: most likely candidate for election, which he became this summer
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  Speaker 2: for the presidential election, he single handedly, if you wish,
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: managed to block American military aid to Ukraine for six
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  Speaker 2: months because the Republicans controlled barely but they controlled the
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  Speaker 2: House of Representatives, and that lasted for six months until
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: the Republicans were divided and finally they changed the position.
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  Speaker 2: But Trump already demonstrated that he is not invested into
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: supporting Ukraine. So if you were to become president, then
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  Speaker 2: the American position and policy would become highly unpredictable and
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  Speaker 2: that could only benefit Russia.
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  Speaker 1: Well, it's something to keep an eye on, and I'm
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: sure that you and I will get another chance to
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  Speaker 1: speak again at some point in the future. I want
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  Speaker 1: to thank you so much for your time today. Just
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  Speaker 1: an awful, awful situation with that attack that occurred, and
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  Speaker 1: we can only hope that things resolve soon. Thank you
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: so much for your time, Dominique, Thank you, Dominique, thank you.
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  Speaker 1: Dominique Aral is the Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the
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  Speaker 1: University of Ottawa.