Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | The 8 Seed Games | NBA Play-Ins & MLB | 4/17/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | The 8 Seed Games | NBA Play-Ins & MLB | 4/17/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: next have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: hack Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is? I
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slumpy, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: should do at this point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up? Her? Buddy's towed back with you? Toadschool sports?
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: It is Friday, April seventeenth. Finally we had a losing
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: day yesterday. That was a slight loss, although unfortunately the
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: loser was a favorite, so it was not great. Obviously,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: we won the first game pretty easily with the under
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: in Giants Reds. I think that was no score at
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: all until like the sixth inning, so thing, maybe we
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: should have made it a five inning bet. First five
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: innings didn't really matter though the game wound up three
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: and to not think so easy under there, I was
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: just like, yeah, just don't go into extra innings. Please
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: don't give me like a two to two game going
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: into extra innings. That did not happen, though, so good Seattle.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: They did not get there. I don't know what to
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: tell you, man. They were losing the whole game. They
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: were out to a four to nothing deficit. They could
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: not hit Walker Bueller well enough, they tried. They cut
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: it to four to two, but they lost five to two.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Nothing you could do about that. Moving on to today,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: I don't have a whole lot else to say about that.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out two baseball players, they're both totals,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: and I'm gonna have a play in the NBA games
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: as well, So we'll talk about the the eight seed
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: playing games that are happening tonight as well. Yeah, let's
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: do it. Let's jump right in man, Major League Baseball.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: It's Friday, but we do have an afternoon and of
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: course it's in Wrigley Field, which I think they're just
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: doing it just because of nostalgia or something like you
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: used to have all afternoon games in Wrigley Field because
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: they didn't have lights, Like I think they didn't add
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: lights in that stadium until like the nineteen eighties or
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: something like that. So I don't know. I think it's
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: just a I think this is why they do it.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: It's just to to keep that going. Or maybe it's
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: like an early season thing, like when it's still not
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: that warm in Chicago. Maybe they do it so that
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: you don't have to play in the cool of night.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I actually I'm not even sure which one it is.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's both. Anyway, Mets are at Chicago here. The
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Cubs are coming in from playing in Philadelphia. They won
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: that series, so you could argue there maybe in a
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: little bit of a letdown spot, it is a return
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: home spot. But that was the only series they played
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: on the road, so it's not like this long road
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: trip return. But you know, when a team returns home
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, I do talk about how a
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: lot of times they will be distracted, have to get
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: back to home life. But in this case, they weren't
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: away for that long. But they are coming off a
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: couple of big wins over Philadelphia, or I think they
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: blew them out, so that probably is pretty satisfying. They
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: put up double digits in both of those games, gave
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: up double digits in the first game, and the Mets
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: are basically ice cold here. Let me put my ticker up.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Speaking of being ice cold, I had to take my
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I had to take the fire off of this thing. Man,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: I'm not hot anymore, but there you go. Anyway, Yeah,
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: the Mets have lost eight games in a row. I
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: think is what this is. They got swept by the
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Dodgers on the road. I mean that's acceptable. A couple
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: of the games are pretty close there. At some point
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: the Mets are going to break out of this, but
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: they've had some injuries on their offense whatever. Of course,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: their offense has not been hitting well though, so I
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: think you do have to give the Cubs an offense
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: of offensive edge here. The Cubs, with that breakout against
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: the Phillies, they're up to the tenth best offense in OPS.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: The Mets are the second, or so I will give
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: the Cubs an offensive edge here. Bullpen wise, the Mets
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: haven't been too bad. The Cubs have been improving as well.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Both of these bullpens are fine, and they're both rested,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: so the bullpen situation is probably okay for both teams.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: But the situation does have me looking at the Mets
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: to start off, because they are looking to bounce back here. Basically,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: nobody's gonna want to play a team that's this cold.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Code I Senga is pitching for the Mets, though I
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: don't consider him to be very trustworthy. His numbers are
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: awful right now, seven point ZHO seven e RA one
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: point seven to one. Obviously, that's not going to continue,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: and it is being skewed by getting wrecked by the A's,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: although that was not at the A's stadium, that was
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: in New York, but that was his most recent start.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: He's still having walk issues, which is really his main problem.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: His nineteen strike cuts in fourteen innings. That's good, very
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: high strike gout rate, but seven walks too many. Seventeen
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: hits allout is too many. He needs to he needs
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: to fix some things. Although I always thought he was
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: a bit overrated, but he's not as bad as these
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: numbers look, so at least I will give him that
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: a one really bad start of skewing those numbers against
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. He actually is pretty good in twenty eight
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: at bats, not a huge sample, but eleven to four
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio, two to fourteen batting average allowed, six
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: thirty four ohps. He might be trustworthy in this game.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Chicago's going with Edward Cabrera. He is pretty good. He's
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: off to a pretty good start to this season, one
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: point six to two ERA, one point one for a whip.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: His issue is also the walks. He's actually been pretty unhittable.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: He has two one hit performances until he finally gave
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: up some hits in his last outing against Pittsburgh. But
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: ten hits in sixteen to two thirds innings, that's good.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Thirteen strikeouts is a little bit lower than you'd expect
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: to see because he is kind of a strikeout guy.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: But nine walks He's always had some wild there, but
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: that is just too many walks, Like, you've got to
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: get that under control. Man. But because he's allowed so
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: few hits, he hasn't put that many guys on base. Overall,
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: he is pretty good against the Mets. Let's look, he's
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of two sixty seven batting average, eight hundred ops.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: That's not exactly great. Forty five at bats, fourteen to
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: eight strike out walk ratio. That's too many walks yet again,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: so Cabrera might not be totally trustworthy here either. Let
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: me just make sure I looked at the right numbers
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: here for seng guy. I think I did. Uh, Yes,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: I did. Yeah. So I think Senga, based on the
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers, maybe is in a bigger bounce back than
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Cabrera is, although they might be both in bounce back spots.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Kind of I kind of lean to the Mets here,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: but the money is coming in on the Cubs, or
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: it might just won forty one seventy five percent of
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: the tickets ninety three percent of the cash on the Cubs.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: You know, like I said, I might take the shot
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: with the Mets money line here. Uh, the money's also
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: coming in in the over and the totals at ten
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: and a half, just so you know, So that does
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: mean the wind is blowing out in Wrigley. That's why
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: the total is that high because the total will differ
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: by like three runs entirely based on the wind in
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: that stadium. So because it's right on the lake on
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: the north side. So but yeah, I would have a
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: slight lean to the Mets there. I know. I feel
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: like I always say that, but I'm not. I've not
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: given out an actual play on the Mets. So do
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: with that information what you want. Kyle, what's up? Tyson?
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: What's up? Thanks for hanging out? Are you are you?
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Are you? Mister mister Hanky now hot? Who? All right?
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Baltimore at Cleveland? Uh? These teams are continuing a series
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: I think, which is interesting. Oh, the series started yesterday,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: that's right. Yeah, that was the only series that started yesterday.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Parker Messek, by the way, for Cleveland yesterday, took a
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: no hitter into the ninth inning and immediately gave up
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: a single on the first pitch in the ninth inning,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: and I think they left him in for a little
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: while longer. I was, dude, I wanted to see it. Man.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I got this notification on my phone Parker Messik three
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: outs away from no hitter. I'm like, all right, I'm
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: putting the game on. First thing I see single, I'm like,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: that was great. That was anti climac deck. Fuck you, Yeah,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: that was great. But they also, yeah, Cleveland, I don't know, man,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: they let Messick throw a lot of pitches, so I
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: think he's gonna be a fade He's gonna be in
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: a fade spot in his next game. But that doesn't
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: impact this game. Really. Cleveland did win the game. Baltimore
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: put up two runs in the ninth inning, but Cleveland
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: won four to two. That means you know that Cleveland's
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: bullpen wasn't really too used, though they did use Smith,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: who might be their closer right now. I don't know
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: they used him last night, so there is that. Baltimore
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: used I think two relief pitchers, so their bullpen is
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: fairly intact as well. Baltimore actually has had a good
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: bullpen so far this year, the third in WHIP. I'm
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: not sure that they're that good, but they've been solid. Cleveland,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: I think has a decent bullpen, but it hasn't been
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: very good this year. They're eighteenth and whip. Their era
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: is a lot worse than that too, So I think
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: you do have to give Baltimore a bullpen advantage, even
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: though they or the use one more relief pitcher yesterday.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: The hitting Cleveland is fifteenth right now. Baltimore is somewhere
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: above that. Yeah, thirteenth probably. Yeah, Baltimore does have the
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: better offense here. I think they have more talent on
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: that offense. Chris Bass at his pitching for Baltimore, though
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm not a fan of his, and last
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: year he was not particularly good on the road. He
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: was better at home, which has been the case throughout
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: his career. He hasn't been good anywhere this year though,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: nine er two point three six whip. Obviously he can't
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: continue to be this bad, but he's been bad. He
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: has not made it five innings in any start so far.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: He has seven walks and five strikeouts. That's really horrendous
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: and nineteen hits allowed eleven innings. Nothing to really like
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: about Bassett here. His numbers against Cleveland are also not
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: good and forty one of bats eight to five strike
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: out walk race year two ninety three batting average allowed
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: eight eighty two ops, so he looks like he is fadable.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Here he's going up against Tanner Biby, who has not
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: been good this season either, six point three eighty RA
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: one point six to four whip for Cleveland, but he's
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: the much younger pitcher. We've seen enough of both these
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: pictures that we know who they are. I think Biby,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: at this point in their careers especially, is pretty clearly
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: the better of these two starters. Here. Biby eighteen to
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: six strike out walk ratio, and that's not too bad.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: It is a few too many walks, I guess, but
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: he's His problem has really been the hits. He's allowed
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: twenty four hits in eighteen a third innings and he
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: hasn't made it five innings since his first start, so
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: he's really got to start turning it around. He got
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: lit up by the Braves in his last outing. On
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: the road, had good command basically in the game, four strikeouts,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: one walk, but eleven hits allowed. Yeah, I mean something
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: went way wrong in that start. But other than that,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: he's actually been okay. I would prefer Biby in this one. Man,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: I would lean Cleveland in this game. Maybe Baltimore is
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: a slight bullpen edge. You might want to keep it
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: to the first five innings Biby over Bassett. I might
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: lean to Cleveland anyway, though, because I don't think they
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: have a massive bullpend disadvantage really there at minus one
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: thirty five seventy four percent of tickets ninety seven percent
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Cleveland. I do agree with Cleveland
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: in that one, even though having a guy almost thrown
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: no hitter for you could kind of hang the team
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: over into the next game a little bit because it
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: was such a climactic event. And maybe Baltimore will show
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: up with some better offense here. So there is that,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: And yeah, you know, maybe the more that I think
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: about it, first five inning probably is the most advantageous
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: approach there with Cleveland. You might have to pay a
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: little bit more for it, But I think isolating Biby
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: versus Bassett is probably the best advantage you can get
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: with Cleveland. There's that is actually probably what I would
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: do Cleveland first five. Maybe run line it so you
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: don't have to pay You might have to pay like
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: minus one fifty for a money line on it, but
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: if you run line it, you can get the price
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: way down. But then, of course they need to be
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: winning after five innings to hit that bet, but that
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: might be the better way to do it. Rio, what's
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: up man, Yes, Magic, it's entirely because of the number.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Like I'm gonna talk about those games at the end
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: of the show. But yeah, the number is like pretty
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: obviously just too high on the Hornets, Like, yeah, the
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Hornets are the better team, but it's I think it's
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: just getting out of control. There's like a lot of
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: recency bias in that line. I think it's purely a
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: numbers play, Like that line is obviously too high on Charlotte.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: All right, Atlanta at Philadelphia this game. I almost added
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: this one to my card, So do with that information
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: what you want. But I think if I was gonna
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: add any additional play, I think it would be this
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: maybe the Minnesota game, which I'm going to talk about too.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: These are the two that I like that I did
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: not put on my card. This one is definitely close Philadelphia.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: These teams did not play yesterday. Philadelphia is staying at
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: home and Lanta is coming in from home, so Atlanta
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: is starting a road trip, which I talk about usually
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: that is a focused spot. Atlanta's coming off of beating
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Miami in a series I think in Philadelphia and could
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: be in a bounced back spot because they're staying at
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: home off of losing two blowout games basically to the Cubs,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: so Philly could definitely be in bounced back mode here.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: As far as the hitting is concerned, both these offenses
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: do have the ability to hit. Atlanta has been doing
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: that this year, the second best offense in OPS, which
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: I think there is some regression there in store for
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Atlanta though. Phillies I think are going to move up
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: a bit. They're nineteenth right now, but we know they
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: can hit, so I think both offenses are definitely capable here,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: which is as kind of an indicator of what my
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: opinion is in this game. Phillies, their bullpen is tenth
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: in whip. I think they're probably not that good though,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: based on last year, they weren't really that good. Their
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: era is pretty bad though. If you look at all
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: the surrounding teams here, you can see these bullpens that
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: have good whips, but their eras suck like. I think
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: those bullpens are probably not as good as their whip
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: might tell you they are, which is Arizona and Philadelphia,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: and based on last year, I don't think those bullpens
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: are that good, So Philadelphia you might have to give
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: them a bit of a bullpend disadvantage. Atlanta's had the
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: best bullpen in baseball based on whip, which I don't
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: think they're that good, but they're good, So I like
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the over in this game. But one issue might be
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: that the bullpens, especially Atlanta's. Atlanta's bullpen is good. Both
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: bullpens are rested, and both bullpens have been capable this year,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: so that's one issue with trying to go over here.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: But you know what, I always say that when starting
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: pitching doesn't do well, it can cascade into the bullpens.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: Bullpens have to come in early, so I usually I'll
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: just go over in the full game. If I'm gonna
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: go over, I do like the over here. Martin Perez,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: though he might be the other reason to maybe not
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: do that because he has had a good season so
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: far three point one four ERA point nine to one whip.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: Like I always talk about, he's an aging veteran, but
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: he knows how to locate his pitches. He's smart. He
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: doesn't strike guys out. He only has six strike cuts
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: in fourteen to third, but he's only allowed nine hits
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: four walks. I mean, it's a bad ratio, but it's
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: just because his bad strike out walk ratio. I mean,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: it's just because his strike gout rate is really low.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Though he did walk three guys in his last outing,
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: but that seems like a bit more of a blip
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: to me there. But I believe we did have a
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: win on Cleveland in that game that was against Messic.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: Now Perez, this says that he got sent down to
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: the miners. I don't know what was going on with that.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: He hasn't. I mean, it looks like he's basically pitching
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: on schedule right now, So I don't know why it
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: says that he was in the minors, but he is
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: pitching today as far as with the starting, like the
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: start pictures that are listed, it has him listed as
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: a starter today going up against Philadelphia here. I think
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: he actually has bad numbers against them. Yeah, in ninety
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: nine at bats, nineteen to thirteen strike out walk ratio.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: It's a big sample size too, three zero three batting
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: average allowed seven ninety eight ohps. Not good stuff there.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: So Perez does not match up well. And if he
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: was indeed sent to the miners, that might mess with
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: his schedule a little bit. But again, I don't know
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: if that actually happened. Like, I don't see any news here,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: like all the news on him is from last year,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: last year when he was on the White Sox, so
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on there. Taiwan Walker's picture
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: for Philadelphia, he's not good. Uh seven point three six ERA,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: one point nine to one whip really bad numbers for
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: him there, twelve seven strike out walk ratio is atrocious,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: twenty one hits allowed in fourteen to two thirds innings.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: That's not good. You can make the argument he's getting better, though,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: because each start has been better than the previous one.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: His last start was actually a decent start, a quality
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: start against Arizona. Went five innings allowed to hour and runs.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: I think that is considered quality. Six strikeouts, two walks. Still,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's particularly good though, going up against
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: whatever we talk who's oh Atlanta, am I always forget? Yeah,
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: he does not have good numbers against Atlanta eighty nine
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: at bat so we have a big sample here. Eighteen
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: to fourteen strike a walk ratio is really bad. Granted
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: five of those walks or Matt Olsen, so he kind
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: of pitches around some of these guys three zero three
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed eight to ninety two ops. So yeah,
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: the starting pitchers look like they could definitely both struggle
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: in this one. I like the over. The money's coming
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: in on the under, though it's hit the nine and
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: a half down to nine and a half juice to
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: the under, it might hit a nine. I would wait
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: probably on this if you want the over, because I
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: think you might be able to go over nine on
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: this and nine is a key number. So you'd rather
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: do that than have to go over the hook, you know,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: because breaking a four to four tie automatically is going
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: to get you to nine. So fifty five percent of
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: tickets are on the over, ninety four percent of the
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: cash on the under. But yeah, I would Yeah, I
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: like the over in that game, though, as I was saying, like,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: both starting pitchers don't match up well here. I think
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: they're both at best questionable, uh seventy six percent of tickets,
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: ninety four percent of the cash on Atlanta. They're down
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: to minus one twelve on the money line, but the
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: money is saying Atlanta. I I would agree from a
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: matchup perspective, I think Perez is more trustworthy than Walker.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Atlanta's bullpen is the better bullpen as well, so I
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: don't disagree with Atlanta from a matchup perspective. Getting Philadelphia
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: is a home underdog, though in a bounce back spot
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: does kind of look enticing like from a value perspective, though,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: it seems like situationally kind of indicates on Philadelphia, so
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: you can kind of see why I don't want to
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: play this game. But I would play the over, but
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: the money line is I mean, excuse the market read
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: is not agreeing with me on that, So that one
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: is close though, over would be my strongest opinion on
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: that game. But yeah, trying to figure out the side.
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: They are just things that are in conflict there. But
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: I would just I'm probably never gonna have money on
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: Taiwan Walker. Man, that's just I'm just not gonna do it,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: like I would need some ridiculous circumstances to have me
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: playing Philadelphia behind Walker. Even getting them as a home
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: underdog here in this spot isn't good enough for me.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh on Apple TV. Pittsburgh just lost
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: to Washington yesterday. Tampa Bay they're staying at home though, Pittsburgh.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, Tampa Bay is coming in from the White Sox,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: so not a huge travel spot for Tampa Bay here
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: coming in from Chicago. Both teams played yesterday. Tampa Bay
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: used three relief pitchers yesterday Pittsburgh used five, so Pittsburgh
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: is in a little bit of a bullpen rest disadvantage here.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay's bullpen has been really bad this season, though
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: they're twenty third in whip, although based on last year
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: you'd think that they would not be this bad. They
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: were actually pretty good last year, so there might be
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: some improvement on the way for Tampa Bay. But Pittsburgh
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: has had the better bullpend this season, although they haven't
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: been great. Their seventeenth and they're an arrest disadvantage, so
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I think that kind of cancels out Pittsburgh's bullpen advantage
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit here, So that's kind of a problem.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: That's a concern for Pittsburgh offensively. Tampa Bay has actually
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: been good. Where's the offense here, Yeah, Tampa Bay is sixth. Oh, actually,
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay are both tied in sixth in
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: overall ops, so both offenses have been clicking so far.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: I don't think both these I don't think either of
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: these offenses is as good as people think they are
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: right now. Though, just based on who's in the lineups
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: and whatever, I expect a little bit of regression offensively
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: from these teams. Nick Martinez is pitching for Tampa Bay.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: He's off to a good start first season with Tampa
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: two point one six, ERA point nine to six whip.
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: He's been good. Last start, he did not make it
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: five innings, walk three guys, so it was his worst
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: outing so far. But he's still only allowed one run
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: and it was against the Yankees, so maybe you give
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: him a pass for that. He's been fine. He isn't
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: along a lot of hits, fewer than one hit per inning.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: The problem is Pittsburgh is very familiar with him because
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: he was in their division. He was on the Reds
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: so Pittsburgh has a decent amount of a history against him,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh has hitting pretty well in sixty four at
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: bats nineteen to five strike a walk ratio, that's a
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: good ratio for him. But Pittsburgh has a three twelve
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: average off him in nine to twenty five ops, so
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has hit Martine as well. So this might not
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: be the best matchup for him here. And of course
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: they're familiar with him, Bubba schandl or our Pal pitching
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: for the Pirates here. His three point eight six ERA
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: looks good and if you look at what he's done,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: you know, over the past in and a half basically,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: or whatever, however long he's been in the league, he
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: definitely has a high upside. Dude, like he has some
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: really good stuff. He could definitely be a really good
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: pitcher in this rotation. But he's been walking everybody this
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: season one point five to seven whip. That is the concern.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: His era is good, He's somehow limiting the damage here,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: but his walk number is a major concern. Twelve walks
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: and fourteen innings. You can't do that multiple walks in
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: every outing. Although his amount of walks has gone down
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: in every outing and his last outing against the Cubs
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: that was the first one where he went five innings
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: this year, So he is improving slowly and last year,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: like I said, he had some really good starts at
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: the end of last season, which is why I gave
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: out a play on his first start this season and
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: we got the win because he had a no hitter
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: through four to third, but he walked six guys the
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: aj Burnett line there anyway, if you remember aj Burnett
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: had that no hitter on the Marlins where he walked
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: nine guys or something. Anyway, Yeah, fourteen to twelve strike
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio, that's not gonna cut it. Ten hits
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: all out of fourteen innings is good. The walk number
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: has to go down, man that he's got to work
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: on his control issues. That's the problem here. Tampa Bay
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: has never faced him before though, and he has a
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: lot of upsides. So I do like Pittsburgh in this game.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Probably I would limit it to first five innings though,
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: because their bullpen is just so overworked right now after yesterday.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to include Pittsburgh's bullpen in whatever
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: I would do here. I'm gonna lean Pittsburgh first five
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: would be my lean here, just take advantage of the
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: unknown factor with Chandler and the fact that his ceiling
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: is very high, whereas Martinez, we know exactly what he
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: is and Pittsburgh is very familiar with him. So I
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: do think Chandler has an advantage here despite all of
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: his control issues. Minus one twenty six is the price
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: right now. It's gone up for minus one to sixteen,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: cash on Pittsburgh. That's for the full game though, Yeah,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: first five you might have to pay a little bit extra. Again,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: you could look towards a run line in that case,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: but then you need Pittsburgh to be winning after five
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: innings to get that bet, to get the wins. So
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: your decision, obviously, But you know, I'm just I'm giving
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: you what my opinions are. Here. San Francisco at Washington,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: I believe both teams are off. Oh no, Washington was
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: off yesterday. San Francisco played yesterday, yes, correct, So San
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Francisco is coming in from Cincinnati. San Francisco had a
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: rest disadvantage because they played yesterday, but Washington is returning
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: on from a road trip. They went to Milwaukee and Pittsburgh.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: So teams on road trip returns like that, multiple series
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: road trips. You know, my instinct is to fade those
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: teams or well, I don't know if I want to
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: call it instinct, but I know that you're supposed to
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: fade those teams because when they return home a lot
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: of times they get distracted, have to return to home life,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: there's stuff to do at home whatever. So Washington is
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: in that spot, although they do have a rest advantage
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: because they did not play yesterday, which is gonna help
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: because Washington's bullpen is Oh no, wait, wait what Washington
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: did play yesterday? What am I doing here? Wait? Who
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: did Washington play yesterday? Oh no, I'm wrong. Yeah, Washington
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: was at Pittsburgh yesterday. I'm an idiot, my mistake. There
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: is no rest disadvantage here. I'm an idiot. Washington played
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: yesterday and they use a lot of relief pitchers. They
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: use six relief pitchers, So scratch that Washington. Yeah, they're
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: at a major disadvantage of the bullpen man. San Francisco
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: WI on the use three. San Francisco definitely has the
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: better bullpen, and they're on the rise. They're at fifteenth now.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: They were one of the best bullpens in baseball last year,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: so I expect them to continue improving. Washington's bullpen is
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: really bad. They're one of the worst, and they're at
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: a major rest disadvantage in the bullpen. So San Francisco
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: has a huge bullpen advantage in this game. Hitting not
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: so much. Sar Francisco is a bottom four offense so
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: far this year, and last year they weren't good either.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Washington one of the surprises. This year. They're fourth on
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: in offensive ops. I don't know if that's going to continue.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: I don't really think they're that good, but they've been
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: the better offense, so all things to consider here. You
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: know me, though, I like pitching, and Logan Webb is
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: pitching for San Francisco here. His numbers don't look good
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: so far five point two five v one point three
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: to eight whip. He's had a couple of starts where
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: he struggled, one against the Yankees and the other one
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: on the road against Baltimore in his most recent start.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: But we know who web is, dude. He's been around
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: for forever. He's the best starter in the Giants' rotation.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: You know, he's he's a veteran pitcher, like he's not
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: like elite, but he's like an all star caliber pitcher.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: You know, he gives you a lot of innings, usually
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: goes out there. Usually he's good more often than not.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: He is better at home though, and it's a more
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park is San Francisco. Going to Washington here,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: his numbers against them are fine. In thirty seven at
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: bat it's two forty three. Batting average allowed, seven to
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: twelve OPS, seven to five strike out walk ratio is
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: not good, but three walks to Ruiz for some reason. Overall,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: you know, the OPS is a little bit higher than
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: you want to see. But still his numbers are fine
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: against Washington. I think he's clearly the better pitcher of
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: Tho over Zach Lateel. The Latel's numbers not horrible this
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: year four point two ERA one point four whip is
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: pretty bad, though indicates that he should be He should
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: be sitting on a worse ra than what he has here.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Ten to five strike out walk ratio for him, that's
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: not very good. In fifteen innings he has not had
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: a lot of strikeouts. The one thing about Latel is
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: that usually he's like way too hittable, but he usually
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: doesn't walk that many guys and he usually gets a
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: decent amount of strikeouts, but this year the walk number
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: is high. This is in fifteen innings and then sixteen
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: hits allowed. He hasn't been great, but he hasn't been
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: totally blown up in any of his starts either. He's
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: allowed three or fewer earned runs and all three of
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: his starts and gone exactly five innings and all of
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: them it looks like he's kind of on a pitch
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: count here where they're keeping him to five innings and
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: around seventy pitches in every start. So he's been efficient
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: at the very least against San Francisco. His numbers are alright.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: In thirty four at bats, ten to three strike a
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is not bad. Two thirty five batting average
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: allowed not bad. Seven thirty eight ops is a little
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: bit high because he's allowed home runs to Chapman Endeavors. Now,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: I like the Giants in this game generally. I think
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Web has an advantage. Think there's a big bullpen advantage here,
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: and I think the situation is an advantage because Washington's
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: are turning on from a road trip, so I like
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: the Giants in this one, but the money is completely
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: disagreeing with me. And you know, as I just showed you,
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: there are a few concerns there with web maybe and
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: maybe some reasons to not hate Lattel here, But sixty
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets are on San Francisco, fifty nine
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Washington. The money is completely
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: disagreeing with me on this game. I again, I disagree
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: with the market more often in baseball than probably anything else.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: And I try to make my plays be ones that
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: are in line with the market so that they could
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: be the best possible plays, because the market reading is
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: definitely part of this whole thing. But yeah, I mean,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: I don't really have anything else on this. I'm just
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: double checking my plays that I do actually have here. Yeah,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: so the market is in alignment with both of my
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: plays that I do have. But anyway, yeah, I leed
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: San Francisco in that game, but market totally disagreeing. The
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: next game up is one of my plays. In fact,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: this one is going to be first five inning total
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go under in Royals Yankees. You can find
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: a pretty decent number on this out there at the
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: book that is named after a Roman emperor. I found
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: this at under four and a half. Its one fifteen.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: I think that's a solid price, dude. I mean, you
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: could go under four if you find a better price
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: that way, I would you know, under four and a half,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: you could probably maybe even go up to minus one
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: twenty to get it at four. Four and a half
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: is a decent number on this total, dude, especially because
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: the full game total is like eight and a half.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: And I think the the advantage here obviously, I'm saying
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: that the advantage here is in the first five innings.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: With the starting pitching matchup here, I don't want to
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: deal with these bullpens, so I'm taking the bullpens out
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: of the equation. Both these teams played yesterday. Kansas City
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: was in Detroit and they're coming in from Detroit. Kansas
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: City used a ton of their bullpen. They used five
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers, and their bullpen hasn't been good. Yankees bullpen
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: is mediocre this year and they use three, so I'm
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: leaving the bullpens out. Kansas City's had the second worst
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: bullpen based on WHIP even though I think their bullpens
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: should improve. They have some of the same guys from
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: last year. Yankees bullpen is twenty first right now. They
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: were not a good bullpen last year. I think they
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: are better this year, but they haven't been very good
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: recently either. Now the Yankees. From a side perspective, I
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: think the Yankees might be the right side here because
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: Kim's City is coming in from a tough series against Detroit. Man.
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: Even though, yeah, you're gonna get up to play the Yankees,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: but Kansas City's having to travel. They just had three
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: straight one run losses to Detroit in the divisional series.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: That's difficult to overcome. Meanwhile, the Yankees got embarrassed in
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: that series against the Angels. They could have lost all
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: four games against the Angels man and they did lose
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: yesterday in a blowout. So Yankees staying at home. Off
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: of that, Yankees are probably the right side here. I
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: think they do have a bullpen advantage here. Clearly they
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: have a better offense Kim's City. I think their offense
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: has also struggled this year. Yeah, they're twenty sixth in offense,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: and the Yankees haven't really gotten going yet. But they
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: are middle of the pack and we know they're a
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: good offense. Anyway pitching. As far as looking at the
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: under in the first five Michael Waka is pitching for
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: the Royals. He's off to a really good start point
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: four to three ERA, point seven to one WHIP. Obviously,
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: I expect those numbers to go wop. I mean, that's
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: totally unsustainable. But he's in really good form right now. Man.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: He's allowed one run on the season so far. He's
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: gone six or more innings in every one of his starts,
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: only ten minutes, allowed a twenty one innings, seventeen to
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: five strike up walk ratio. He's a veteran, he's had
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: a good career. He knows what he's doing. He's not
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: like an elite strikeout pitcher or anything like that. But yeah,
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: I mean he will come in and get the job
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: done more often than not, and that's what you want.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: That's what we're gonna want here. Man. We're gonna mostly
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: be relying on the Yankees pitcher in this game anyway,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: but we need Waka to just help us out here,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: and I think he could do that because he's in
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: good form. He's pretty good, and he's been good against
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: the Yankees in the past, even though they have one
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: hundred and thirty at bats against him, but it's a
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: big sample size that we can gauge from. Even though
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: they're familiar with them, he's done pretty well against them.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Forty one to thirteen strike at walk ratio, one fifty
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: four batting average allowed in five hundred ops. That's really
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: impressive against these really good hitters here, man. So yeah,
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Aaron Judge has really struggled against him, three for twenty
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: four with twelve strikeouts and four walks. So yeah, I
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: think Walka can help us out here with this under.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: And then Cam Schlittler on the other side, he's been
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: really good this year two point four to nine ERA
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: point seven to four whip. I call him the Trader
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: because he's from Weymouth, mass you know, and he had
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: those spats with the Red Sox fans during the wild
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: Card games last year. He's been really good this season though. Man.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: He's gone twenty one to two thirds innings, fifteen hits allowed,
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: thirty strikeouts and one walk. His command has been excellent
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: this season, yeah, I mean, he did give up three
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: runs a piece in his last two outings against the
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: A's and Tampa Bay, but one strike at walk ratio
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: over that span he got he kind of got unlucky
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: in those games where it's like a lot of the
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: guys that reach base wound up coming around to score.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: He's good and I believe the Royals have never faced
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: him before. Yeah, so he has that advantage to Again.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: I always say when you have these young, really talented pitchers,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: especially against kind of a weak offense like the Royals,
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: they tend to have a pretty big advantage when they
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: haven't been seen before by those hitters. The hitters have
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: to figure them out. So yeah, I like this. I
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: think the starting pitching matchup looks really good in this
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: one will take the bullpens out. We have a sixty
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: five percent of tickets and eighty eight percent of the
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: cash on the under for the full game. The full
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: game is sitting at eight, but we're gonna go first
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: five under on this again, I would just say find
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: the best number that you can. I thought this number
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: was really really good. Actually at the good Old Roman
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: Emperor that starts with a sea giving us the under
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: four and a half at minus one fifteen, I saw
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: it at minus won twenty at. Some other books also
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: saw under four at like even money, which I wouldn't
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: disagree if that was the play you wanted to make.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: But these first five innings, every half run does matter
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: a bit, so that's what we're doing. And of course
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: because it could be tied at the end of five
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: innings as well, so there's no real key number there,
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: like every number is kind of worth something there. All right,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee at Miami, Let me see because I'm gonna probably
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: take a quick break at some point here. Where's my
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: other play? Is one of the later well not one
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: of the later games, but like in one of the
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: evening later Well, yeah, I don't know, we'll call it later.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Apple TV has Detroit at my Boston Red Sox here.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Oh no, wait, my Milwaukee at Miami. Sorry, this game
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: is hard to gauge because Milwaukee is not listed a
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: starter yet here, so pretty difficult to figure out what
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: we want to do with this game. Milwaukee, they played
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: yesterday against Toronto, so they do have a rest disadvantage here,
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: but they're on role in starting a road trip. They
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: just beat Toronto two games in a row. Maybe it
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: could be a little bit of a letdown here, but
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: Miami has been playing decent this season as well. A
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: lot of times when the team starts a road trip,
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: they will be focused to get the road trip off
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: on the right foot. Miami did not play yesterday. They're
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: returning home though, from going to Detroit in Atlanta, but
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: Atlanta back to Miami is not a horrible road trip
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: leg there, staying in the division and whatever. It's a
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: trip that they're used to, but technically, yes, it is
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: still a road trip. Returns. A lot of times the
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: team returning home from a road trip will be a
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: bit unfocused and have to get back to home life
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: and whatever. Don't know they're gonna overlook the Brewers, though.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: The Brewers are off to a good start. Man definitely
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: in contention for their division there, so I don't know
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: that they're a team that Miami's really gonna overlook. The
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: Brewers have the eleventh best offense right now with ops
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: Miami actually ninth, but I think the Brewers do have
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: the more talented offense, although I think the Brewers. I
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: think they the Brewers did just have some injury, not
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: that long agoing offense. I don't know if he's back
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: or not. Hold on, it was wow, they got a
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: lot of guys on the injury report here Churio, I
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: think already was. Yeah, Yellick just went on the injured list,
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: so they do have some hitters who are injured right now,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: Man and Vaughn, I guess, and then Kane Nigg and
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: their bullpen is injured as well, So Brewers dealing with
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: some injuries there going up against Miami. We do know
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: that Jansen Junk is pitching from Miami. Although hold on,
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: I got to talk about the bullpens here, I'm all
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: over the place. I apologize Milwaukee. Their bullpen is kind
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: of falling off. They were good to start the season,
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: but now they're twentieth in whips, so they're not a
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: great bullpen. I don't think they're mediocre, and Miami's bullpen
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: has actually been pretty good. There's still ninth in a
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: bullpen whip, so I think Miami probably does have a
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: little bit of a bullpen edge here. And like I said,
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: they're actually rested. Milwaukee played yesterday. Milwaukee used three relievers
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: yesterday while Miami was off, So I do think Miami
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: does have a a pretty decent bullpen hedge here. Junk
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: making the start for them, he's okay. I think four
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: point three to two ERA one point two to six
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: whip this year. Those are fine numbers, you know, not egregious.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: Nothing to really love, nothing to really hate here either.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: He's given up seventeen hits his sixteen to two thirds innings.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: Not a strikeout guy really, with twelve four walks, I mean,
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: there's nothing again, nothing to really despise about that, nothing,
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: nothing to jump out of your seat over either. Against
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: some Milwaukee again they are a pretty potent offense, although
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: again they do have some injuries going on there. They
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: have thirteen at bats against some two strikeouts, no walks,
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: but they have a three to zero eight average off him,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: but only a six ninety two OPS, so the ops
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: isn't that high. Only one extra base hit a double
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: from Terrang So yeah, this game, again, we don't know
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: who's starting from Milwaukee, which makes it kind of difficult
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: to gauge Miami is returning over from a road trip.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Total has dropped from eight and a half to eight.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Don't know if that really even signals anything, because of
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: course it could be just a fake move. It really
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: wasn't even that significant of a move. And then Miami
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: dropped for minus one fifteen to minus one oh nine here,
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: so still those are not significant moves. It's really difficult
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: to figure out what's even going on in the market
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: right now. And the number, of course could move depending
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: on who Milwaukee decides to start here. So yeah, I
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: don't like the game really at all. Like from a
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: side perspective, Miami has the disadvantage of returning home, Milwaukee
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: has the disadvantage of being unrested after playing yesterday. So
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with the game at all.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: Hard to figure it out. I don't have an opinion
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: on it really at all. All Right, and then we
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: have a Detroit at my Boston Red Sox, which I
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: almost jumped ahead to Josh, what's up man? The Marlins?
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: What did they do? Did you? Did you play the
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Marlins or something? In their last game? They didn't play
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: yes today though, right? Or you just hate the Marlins.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Marlins are a pretty difficult team to
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: hate because they're never They're never good, except when they
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: won the World Series against the Yankees, which I think
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: the world was rooting from Miami in that World Series there.
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: That was a crazy season. That was my freshman year
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: in college. I was, you know, it was the Aaron
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: Boone home run against Tim Wakefield season in the ALCS
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: to eliminate the Red Sox. I was very unhappy about that.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox were that close. And then Miami got
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: into the World Series because of Steve Bartman. That happened
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: that year as well, in that Cubs game. Yeah, I
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't have a whole lot else to say,
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: so yeah, but yeah, Miami wound up winning that World Series.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: Josh Beckett, I believe part of that Miami team there
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: before he wound up going to the Red Sox and
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: then winning World Series of the Red Sox as well.
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: Miami didn't play yesterday, sir, What are we talking about?
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: The Marlins did not play yesterday? All right? Detroit at
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: Boston on Apple TV. Detroit played yesterday and the Red
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: Sox didn't. So Detroit does have a little bit of
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: a rest disadvantage here. They're starting a road trip, though,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: so when teams start road trips, a lot of times
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: they will be focused. You're probably gonna be focused when
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: you're going to play Boston. The Red Sox are returning
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip. They went to Saint Louis
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: and Minnesota. So even though they do have arrest advantage
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: because they didn't play yesterday. I think that kind of
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: gets negated by the return home spot. You know, I
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: don't like this return home spot where I think teams
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: get distracted, they have to get back to home life,
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: et cetera. So I don't love that. Red Sox bullpen
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: has been good. There's sixth right now in Whip. Their
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: bullpen's doing well. Detroit's has been mediocre. They're pretty good.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: It's sixteenth, so both bullpen's are all right. But Red
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: Sox do have a bullpen age. They've been the better bullpen,
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: and Detroit did use four relief pitchers yesterday, Nott Jansen,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: former Red Sox player, and their closer the closer for Detroit.
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: But yeah, bullpenavitage does go to the Red Sox. Red
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: Sox offense has not been good so far, though obviously
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: they have a lot of talent on this offense. I
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: think they should be able to hit better, and they
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: did hit well at home last year, so I think
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: at some point they're gonna turn that around. They're at
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: twenty third right now. Detroit's offense has been the better one.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: They're at twelfth. I suppose you could, yeah, just yeah,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: I mean you could settle on. Yeah, Detroit is the
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: better offense here. Casey Maiz is pitching for Detroit. He's
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: been fine this year. Three point nine to four ERA,
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: one point four to four whip is too high, obviously.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: His overall numbers are not bad, though he had one
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: bad start at Minnesota bounced back nicely with a start
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: against Miami in his last out. He's got an eighteen
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: to six strikeout walk ratio, which is not bad. U
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: seventeen hits at sixteen in a few too many. He's
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: put too many guys on base generally, but overall his
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: numbers are just not really that bad. So there is
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: all that. But he's a fly ball pitcher, which does
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: not necessarily play well in Fenway Park, because of course,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: it's easy to hit home runs at Fenway Park down
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: the right field line, around Pesky Pole and then obviously
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: over the Monster. Against the Red Sox, Mize has not
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: been good. In forty four at bats eight to two
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: strike at walk ratio. His numbers are very miserly against
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox a three forty one batting average allowed
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: nine to fifty three ohps, so they have hit him
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: pretty well matchup looks like it does. Favorite Ron Your
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: Suarez for the Red Sox, who seems like he's finally
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: getting on track, because I thought this was a good
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: offseason move to pick him up. Five point zero two ERA,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: one point four to seven whip Those are not good numbers, obviously,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: eleven of five strike at walk ratio is not good.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: In fourteen to third inning, sixteen hits allout. I know
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: none of these numbers are good, but each one of
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: his starts has gotten a little bit better pretty much,
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: and well maybe not. Yeah, I think, yeah, I think
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: that it is the case. But his most recent start
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: was clearly the best one. He had a six inning,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: three hit shutout against Saint Louis and had six strikeouts,
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: two walks. I mean, there's not a lot to dislike
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: about that. And the other thing to like about Suarez
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: is he does get a lot of ground balls. I
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: know he's had a few more fly ball outs this year,
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: but he does keep the ball low in the zone
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: a lot, which I thought made him a better pickup
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: for a guy that's gonna pitch in Fenway, and he
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: pitched in Philadelphia that's also a pretty hitter friendly ballpark there,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: So I did not mind that pick up. I think
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: he is starting to come around against Detroit. He does
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: have pretty good numbers in thirty five at bats six
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: to one strike out walk ratio to twenty nine batting
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: average allowed six to twenty one ops. So Red Sox
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: seem to have the pitching edge throughout this game. But
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on Detroit. Red Sox down
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: to minus won twenty three, fifty six percent of tickets
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: on them, sixty nine percent of the cash on Detroit.
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: So the money very clearly indicating on Detroit. Now the
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: Red Sox, like I said, yeah, the situation is not
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: great for the Red Sox because they're returning over from
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: a road trip, but they have a rest edge because
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: Detroit played yesterday. I think the Red Sox have the
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup edge throughout this entire game started pitching and bullpen.
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: So it's one of those games where those things just
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: don't align with each other. I almost want to slightly
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: lean to the Red Sox here, man. I think that
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: the rest plus the matchup like supersedes the return home
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: even though I know the return home spot is bad.
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: For sure, it is, but I don't know, man, I
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: don't really totally agree with the market action in that
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: one do with that information what you want, though, because
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: I really don't like disagreeing with the market. Like those
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: market signals are pretty strong. But again it's a seven
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: to fifteen PM game, so again you gotta take these
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: numbers with a grain of salt too, So you have
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: to kind of rely on you're handicapping as well, like
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: when you do this in the morning, because these numbers
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: might move throughout the day, which is why I'm you know,
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: at some points in the past, I was like waiting
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: to you know, bet and stuff until like I got
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: more information during the day and stuff where you know,
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: sometimes you want to bet in the morning, try to
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: beat the line moves and rely on your handicapping, but
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: in other ways you just want to wait and see
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: where the market moves a little bit, you know what
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: I mean. So it's pretty difficult. Yeah, the mariners, I'm
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: not happy about that. Yeah, the mariners catch the marlins. Actually,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: I believe although there are no marlins up in the
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: Pacific Northwest, the mariners are more They're they're catching salmon
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: out there and stuff like that. But yeah, all right,
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be back in a second. Because we don't
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: have any NHL. NHL is off, and then I'm gonna
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: talk about what I want to do with my bracket
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: specials and I'm gonna put out and you know, all
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: that stuff that I'm doing. I'll be back. We'll talk
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: about the remaining seven baseball games here, and then we
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: talk about NBA as well. All right, let me uh,
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: I'll zoom out on this a little bit, try to
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: get all I don't think I can get all the
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: baseball games on on the screen at once. You won't
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: be able to see it all. Maybe you can, I
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: don't know. Yeah, it's probably I don't know whatever. I'll
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: be back that might be. Yeah, I don't know. That's
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: probably not all of them, but it's the most. All Right,
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: all right, I'm gonna zoom back in here. Let's finish
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: this off. We have one more play here somewhere, not
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: the next game. Although this game I mentioned I do
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: have a stronger opinion than this one, but I did
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: not put it on my card. Cincinnati at Minnesota. Cincinnati
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, so I think there were a rest disadvantage
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: because Minnesota did not play yesterday. Minnesota is staying at home,
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: but they did just lose a win streak. Sometimes losing
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: a win streak will hang you over. But it was
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: only a four game win streak. But yeah, they lost
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: the final game of the Red Sox, but they are
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: staying at home here, so Minnesota they have the rest
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: advantage a though. How much will that help them, I
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: don't know, because Minnesota's bullpen is terrible. Cincinnati's bullpen is better,
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: but they use four relief pitchers yesterday, so Cincinnati's bullpen
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: is at a rest disadvantage. So like, how do you
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: gauge this? You know what I mean? Cincinnati's bullpen fourteenth
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: right now in whips, so middle of the pack. Minnesota
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: has been terrible twenty eighth, but you know, the rest
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: advantage seems to kind of negate that to the point
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: where maybe the bullpens are almost even coming into this game.
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: Minnesota has the eighth best ops on offense, but I
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: don't really expect that to continue. I don't think they're
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: this good. I think there is regression coming there. Red's
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: offense has been really bad though at twenty eighth, so
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: I do think Minnesota does have an offensive edge here,
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: and I think they have a big starting pitching Edgelough.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: Of course, that is going to be factored into the
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: line here. Brandon Williamson is pitching for the Reds. He
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: has not been very good. Five point two eighty R
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: and one point three to seven whip. He's a guy.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: He's only been in the leagust Is twenty twenty three.
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: I think he must have been dealing with some injuries
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: or something. I mean, he was okay back then, but
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: then he hadn't pitched for more than a season. Basically
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: came back this season. He's been mediocre so far at Bess.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: Although his last outing or excuse he two outings ago,
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: was a good outing against Miami. His last outing was
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: bad with six walks. So overall he has a ten
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: to nine strike a walk ratio in fifteen to third inning's.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: That's not good. He's only allowed twelve hits, so he
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed that many hits. We did fade him in
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: his first start because I thought, just after that long layoff,
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: I thought he was not gonna be in game shape
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: particularly and we did get that win with Pittsburgh in
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: that one. I think that was the Bubba Chandler six
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: walk game. But still, actually maybe I'm wrong about that
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: I forget, but we got that win there by the way.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: I apologize after Pittsburgh, I said Merril Kelly on yesterday's
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: show when I met Mitch Keller, Dude, I get those
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: two guys confused all the time. They have basically the
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: same name and they're both okay pitchers. Anyway, Williamson, Yeah,
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: I don't trust him, man. I mean, six walks and
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: his last outing not good stuff there going up against Minnesota.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: They actually, oh I was gonna say, I thought they
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: had seen him before. They haven't really though. They only
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: have two guys who have seen him before. Josh Bell
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: does have a single off him, but overall they're one
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: for six off him, no strikeouts and no walks, so
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: Williamson is pretty unfamiliar to them. That could be an advantage.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: Then Minnesota's hitters haven't seen him. But I don't see
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: how you could trust Williamson right now, and he's going
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: up against Minnesota's ace Joe Ryan, who's off to another
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: good start here three point eight e r point nine
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: to eight whip. He said, one bad start in here
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: against Kansas City, and other than that he's been good
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: twenty two to six, strikeout, walk, ratio with fifteen hits
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: a lout in twenty one and a third innings. That's
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: all good. Few hits allowed, high strikeout rate, not a
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: lot of walks against Cincinnati, he has good numbers against
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: him in thirty six at bat thirty six at bats, yeah,
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: sixteen to three strike a walk ratio one ninety four
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed, six ninety four ops. So I do
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: like Ryan in this one. I like Minnesota in this one. Man.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: They have a rest advantage here. Their bullpend is definitely questionable, though,
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: so if you wanted to go first five innings here
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: you could do that. It's gonna have to be a
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: run line play, though, you'd have to go run line
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: either way. I don't know what the price is right
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: now on it, but if you want to go full game,
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: I would find like a minus one run line or
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: split the bet, make your own minus one run line
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: to try to get the price a little bit better.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is public eighty four percent of the tickets, because
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: everybody pretty much knows Ryan is good. Ninety percent of
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: the cash on them as well. They are up to
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy one. They do look a bit public, though,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: and the total is not high it's seven and a half,
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: So the oddsmakers are kind of respecting Williamson with that number,
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: and I guess that's kind of the concern that I
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: would have. Maybe Williamson with his unfamiliarity, maybe he does
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: okay here, but still, yeah, I think Minnesota is the
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: right side. That would be my lean there. If you
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: want to play on the rest disadvantage that Cincinnati has,
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: you can go full game with Minnesota, like I said,
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: And if you go full game, you get more chances
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: for them to score those runs, you know what I mean,
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: to get you over that hump there. So they are
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: able to win by multiple runs potentially there, because even
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: even if you go with the minus one, you need
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: him to win by multiple runs, although if they win
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: by one, you'll push the bet, which is not that bad.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: I know there are a lot of guys out there
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: that will never do the minus one and a half
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: run line at home, but you don't have to in
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: this game. You know, the minus one run line I
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: think would be the approach there, or like I said,
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: first five innings minus a half run. You might have
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: to pay quite a bit for that though. So those
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: are my thoughts on that game. The next game up
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: is my other play. Yeah, it's get to it. I
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: told you these are both totals. This one is an
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: over in Saint Louis and Houston. We're gonna go over
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: the eight and a half here. The eight and a half,
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: like seems shockingly low to me in this game. I
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: don't know if it's because Saint Louis's offense is bad.
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know what we're looking at here, because this
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup is ridiculous, Like it's so bad we have
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the over. By the way,
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: it is up to eight and a half juice at
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty. Now, so if you are gonna get this,
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: I would. I would get on it man before, like
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: before it really hits the nine, because they think eight
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: and a half at minus one twenty probably I would
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: pay about minus one twenty to get that eight and
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: a half there. But I found at minus one ten, yeah,
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: I would still probably go over the nine on this.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: I think eight and a half is low. But of
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: course again nine is a key number, man, because it
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: breaks the four to four tie. But looking at this game,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: I believe, well, yeah, Houston played yesterday Saint Louis did not,
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: but Houston is staying at home. So even though Saint
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: Louis has a rest advantage, if you want to call
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: it that, they're bullpen stinks. Both of these bullpens are terrible,
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: so we're factoring that in as well. Houston has the
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: worst bullpen in baseball in WHIP and I no not era,
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: excuse me, their third worst in ERA, but still they're terrible,
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: horrible Houston bullpen. And they did use some relief pitchers
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: yesterday as well. Yeah, they used three. So this bullpen
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: yeah bad and not in good shape. Saint Louis's bullpen
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: is not much better. They're twenty second and they have
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: like a bottom three or four bullpen ERA as well.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: These are bad bullpens, dude, So we're definitely gonna that
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: helps the over We're gonna fade these bullpens. Houston has
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: had one of the best offenses so far. They're third
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: in offense right now, so I think they should have
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: the ability to keep hitting here and we're gonna look
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: at the starting pitch matchup in a minute. Saint Louis
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: has been okay on offense, even though I don't think
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: their offense is that good, but they're sixteenth right now
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: in ops by the way, you want to see a
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: bad Chicago's offenses, they're batting one ninety five as a team,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: the White Sox. I mean that is insane. Uh dude,
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: I'm like, I'm a steroid era kids, so I'm like,
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: these averages are insane, Like they're all so bad. Like
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: the best batting average is the Dodgers at two eighty three.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: Like what, it's insane to me that every other team
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: is like two seventy two, sixteen below. Like I used
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: to remember, like you'd have like most of a lineup
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: hitting like close to three hundred. You know, I don't
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: know what's going on here. And I thought the whole
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: push was to get more offense to make the game
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: more exciting. No, you want more offense allows steroids, man,
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: that's when the game was exciting. Get rid of all
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: these new rules, get rid of the pitch clock, get
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: rid of the ghost runners, which are the worst thing
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: that they ever did. Horrible, just horrible, Stop ruining ruining
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: America's past time. Man. Anyway, I'm going on a rant here,
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: but yeah, Saint Louis, I think their offense is capable
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: and going up against this pitching where we already said
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: the bullpens are terrible. Both teams should be able to
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: put up runs here. The trailer park guy, Kyle lay
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: he is pitching for Saint Louis. He's not pitching well.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: Five point one for one point seven to one whip.
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: He has more walks than strikeouts eight walks, seven strikeouts,
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: and sixteen hits a lot of fourteen innings. None of
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: that is any good, you know. I mean he's been
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: he hasn't had any start where he's been like totally
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: lit up or anything like that. But none of this
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: is good. And he might be out of the game early,
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: and he's walked three guys in each of his last
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: couple of outings. Not Connolly early. Who I think he
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: might have matched up against in one of those games,
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure. Actually, No, I think lay he matched
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: up against Suarez. Actually, I think in that game against
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox. Anyway, Layy against Houston, they have seen
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit of him eleven at bats. There's nothing
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: to really gauge here. Two strikeouts, no walks, two seventy
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: three average a lot in nine oh nine ops. Because
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: Alvarez does have a home run off him. I don't
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: think you can really put much weight into any of this,
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: but lay he is just not that good of a
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: pitcher man, and Peter Lambert is getting the start for Houston.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: Who the fuck is this guy? He has? He hasn't
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: pitched since twenty twenty four. Apparently he was on the
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: Colorado Rockies for his entire careers so far, which I
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: know that's gonna skew his numbers in a bad direction.
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: But even so, his career are A is six point
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: two eight and his whip is one point six' one.
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, is there anything like to you know, like,
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: is there anything in that that inspires confidence? I don't
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: think so. I don't know what we're doing here, man,
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: I really don't. His career strikeout walk ratio is also bad.
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: One hundred and eighty one strike got ninety five walks
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: and two hundred two hundred and forty three and two
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: thirds innings. None of that is good. It's too many walks,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: it's not high strikeout rate. Yeah, this guy's not good.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know what. I don't know what else to
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: say about this Lambert. Lambert's, by the way, is a
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: h a chain of like market slash grocery stores here
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: in this uh, in this area, I don't know. I
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: don't know if they're anywhere else, but Lambert's is like
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: a market that we have here. Anyway. They have some
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: good sandwiches. By the way, who are we talking about here?
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: We're going up against Saint Louis. They've never seen Lambert before.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: But honestly, I don't think that's really an advantage here, man.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: I think we're looking at bad starting pitchers, We're looking
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: at bad bullpens. I think this game should have a
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: lot of runs. Houston has had a lot of games
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: go over. Uh, I mean that's just what they are.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: In their last two games actually have gone way under.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: So I think maybe that's given us a little bit
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: of value in the market, maybe because the last two
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: games have gone under in this stadium at Houston. But
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: it's not a particularly pitcher friendly park or anything like that.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: So I think Houston, Yeah, they're an over team, dude.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: Their office has been good and they're pitching is bad.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: So that's what we're going with over in that game?
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: Is my play there? All right? The rest of these games,
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: we have Dodgers at Colorado. Yeah, that's great. Dodgers had
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: yesterday off, I believe, because of course they have an
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: advantage here. They are coming off sweeping the Mets, so
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: I guess maybe there will be a little bit of
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: a letdown component to this, But they do have rest
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: because they didn't play yesterday Colorado did, I believe, Yeah,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: Colorado was in Houston, So of course the schedule makers
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: are gonna give the Dodgers a huge advantage, which, of
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: course they really need a huge advantage against Colorado. Right
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: Colorado's returning over from a road trip, but they went
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: to San Diego and Houston and and have no days
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: off with the Dodgers having resty, Come on, man, why
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: the schedule makers? Yeah, they just give the Dodgers every
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: advantage here. Now, Colorado did end a losing streak yesterday.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: They beat Houston. It was a nice upset, But I
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: don't think there's gonna be a letdown here, Like obviously
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: they're gonna try to show up against the Dodgers. Breaking
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: a six game losing streak maybe gives you some new
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: momentum here, but there are so many negatives to this
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: situation here. I don't really want any part of Colorado
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: here as far as the hitting. We know the Dodgers
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: have the best offensive baseball. Colorado started out hot, but
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: they've been bad for a while. Now they're at twenty first.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: But again, Colorado just hit significantly better in course field though,
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: and their numbers have dropped off because they've been playing
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: road games, including in San Diego, which is very pitcher friendly.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: So Colorado, yeah, I think they're not a good offense,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: but they are better at home now. As far as
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: the bullpen usage, Colorado used four relief pitchers yesterday, so
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: their bullpen is it a pretty major disadvantage here. Dodgers
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: bullpen has actually been improved this year. They've been pretty solid.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: They're at fifth right now and whip and their ERA
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: is not bad either. Maybe the Dodgers bullpen is actually
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: that much improved because last year it was their main weakness.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: Colorado's eighth right now in bullpen whip, so their bullpen
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: has actually been good. I don't think they're really that
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: good though. I think the Dodgers do have the better
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: bullpen here. Tyler Glas knows pitching for the Dodgers. His
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: four ERA doesn't look good, but his whip point nine
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: to four, that's really good. He had one bad outing
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: basically against Texas. It wasn't even really that bad. He
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: got unlucky. He gave up two of them runs in
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: that game. He only gave up five hits in one
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: walk at six innings, and most of those guys came
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: around to score. Still had a seven to one strike
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio, so I don't even think that was
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: a bad start. We know he's good man. He has
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: a twenty two to four strike out walk ratio, only
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: thirteen hits allout in eighteen innings. All of that is good.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: Up against Colorado, I'm assuming he has good numbers against them. Yeah,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: his numbers are elite against Colorado and thirty nine at bats.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: I looked at these before I did the show. I
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: just never remember, but yeah, Colorado's three for thirty nine
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: off him, no extra base hits, twenty strikeouts, so he
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: has more more than half of the at bats against
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: him have resulted in strikeouts if you don't include the walks.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: Two walks by the way, oh, seventy seven batting average
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: in one ninety nine ops. These are elite numbers here.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: Klasnow completely dominates Colorado, and I think Glasnow has pitched
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: in this stadium before as well, and I'm assuming he'll
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: be fine even in course field. He's going up against
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: tomo Yuki Sugano, who I thought was gonna pitch yesterday
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: after the opener because he was the listed starter, but
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: they actually used Chase Dollander and Donander actually pitched well,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: Like I think Donander should join the starting rotation man,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: although whatever, they're gonna use them after an opener whatever.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: Sugano actually has a mid too bad for the Rockies.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: Two point one six cra zero point seven to eight
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: whip in his second major league season here, twelve three
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio, only ten hits allowed, sixteen to
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings, induces a pretty good amount of ground balls,
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: which does help in a stadium like this. Yeah, he's
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: been pretty good. He's gone six innings in each of
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: his last two outings against Philly and at San Diego.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: I know that's a picture friendly park, but Philly pretty
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: good offense there. Yeah, I mean he's pitching all right.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: Up against the Dodgers. They've seen a bit of him, though,
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: and they have hit him well. Only in thirteen at
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: bats though, but two zero strike out walk ratio. Otani
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: has two of them runs off him though with the
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: that's that's Japanese on Japanese crime man. It's a it's
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: a it's a Yaku's war there or something. I don't
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what else, it's a civil war. Three
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: eighty five batting average allowed though Sugano allowing that average
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: to the Dodgers twelve thirty one. None of that is good.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: You know, the Dodgers just have so many advantages here, Like,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: they just have every advantage. They have the rest advantage,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: they have a travel advantage here, they have yeah, you know,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: situational advantage. They have the better starter, they have the
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: better pullpen, they have the better offense. But you gotta
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: lay minus too eighty five, dude, I mean, this is insane.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: Minus to eighty five for a road team in Major
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: League Baseball. That's just unbelievable. Like, there's no value in
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: that number. There's no way you could lay a money
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: line like that, uh, eighty six percent of tickets, ninety
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on the Dodgers. I mean,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: if even if you're gonna lay a run line, you're
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: gonna probably need the Dodgers to win by three runs here.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: I don't like any of that, man, I really don't.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: I Actually I kind of like under first five innings
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: in this game I think would be the best way
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: to look at this game. Uh, sixty five percent of
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: tickets on the over, eighty two percent of the cash
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: on the under total is hitting the under here, it's
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: driving it off of that nine and a half down
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: to nine. And like I just showed you, even though
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: Sugano's matchup numbers aren't that good, I could see him
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: potentially doing okay here in Glasnow probably just lights out here,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: although maybe if you want to take Sugano out of
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: the equation, Actually what you could do is you could
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: go Colorado under their team total or go Colorado under
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: their team total in the first five innings. That might help,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: because you know that return home spot. A lot of
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: times the offenses like they succumb to that distraction, and
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: the offenses are just off and their timing is off
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: and whatever. So I don't hate that if you want
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: to go Colorado under their team total or first five
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: inning Colorado under their team total. I don't even know
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: how many books offer that because it's so granular, but
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: you can find tons and tons of waste to bet
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: now so probably something like that would be the best
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: approach in this game. Carrot, what's up man under a
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: course field? Yeah, but you got glas no pitching man.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: He absolutely destroys the Rockies. Yeah, I mean yeah, like Colorado,
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: but that's factored into the number, like you're always gonna
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: get a total that's skewed high at course field. You
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: got a game with a guy that's as good as
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: glasnow on the mount and the totals nine and a half,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: and he's going up against a pitcher that's not really
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: that bad Sugano. So yeah, that pitching matchup is not
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: that bad. But yeah, I'm again I might limit it
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: to Colorado though, to go under their team total. San
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: Diego and Anaheim. Man, this is taken forever to just
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: get through all this baseball. Uh, San Diego at Anaheim,
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: I mean the Battle of California. San Diego just swept Seattle.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: San Diego looks way too good right now. But again,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: remember most of these recent wins, like four of them
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: were against the Rockies at home, and then they had
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: a couple of games. You know, one of those games
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: they should have lost against Seattle too. Games ago. They
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: are starting a road trip with momentum though, so you
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: gotta give them that that it is a good spot. Usually,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: just start a road trip, you usually are focused to
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: start the road trip. Anaheim just beat the Yankees and
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: the returning home from the East Coast, so of course
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: San Diego gets a huge situational advantage like that Anaheim
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trouble, though, at least unlike
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: with the Dodgers, both of these teams did play yesterday.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: But Anaheim, this is a really bad spot though, returning
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip like this. They went to
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati and to the Bronx and they beat the Yankees
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: eleven to four yesterday, split that series, and now they're
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: having to come back home across three time zones and
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: play again, whereas San Diego staying in California, that is
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: a huge edge for San Diego. So yeah, situationally, it's
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: a really bad spot for the Angels. The Angels don't
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: have a good bullpen either, and they use a lot
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: of it yesterday to get through that. I don't know why.
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: Like they had a massive lead in that game against
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. I don't know, maybe it wasn't that massive
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: until later, but they use five relief pitchers in that game.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: That's not good. Very heavy usage from an already bad bullpen.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: San Diego did use a bunch of theirs, including their closer.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: Yesterday they used four relief pitchers. But San Diego does
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen. They're second in whip. I think
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: they're definitely arguments to me made that they are the
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: best bullpen. They have the best closer, although he might
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: not be available tonight. Angels bullpen is twenty third, though
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: they're a bad bullpen, and they're a little bit still
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: less rested than San Diego is, so San Diego clearly
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: has a bullpen edge here. Offensively, the Angels have actually
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: been the better offense this year, but I don't know
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: how real that is. They're at fifth right now, but
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: they're batting average is bad. Like I think maybe they're
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: just kind of fluking because they've had a lot of
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: home runs. This is kind of what they did last
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: year though. The Angels, they hit a ton of home runs,
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: but they don't hit well otherwise. Like they're second in
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: home runs this season to the Dodgers, but their batting
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: average is terrible to twenty five. They have like one
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: of the lowest batting averages, So like, how do you
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: gauge how good this offense is? Ops Wise, their fifth
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: which is insane. San Diego is a more balanced offense
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: at least, but not great. They're at fourteenth right now.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: They're a decent offense though, But I don't know, you
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: could make the argument that San Diego is a slightly
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: better offense than Anaheim. I don't know. I mean, the
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: home runs are just skewing those numbers to starting pitching
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: is interesting here. Matt Waldron is making his return for
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: San Diego. He has not pitched since last year, where
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: he only made one start, so he's been injured pretty
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: much since twenty twenty four. He pretty much hasn't pitched
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: since then. And he's not a great pitcher, but he's okay.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: And the interesting thing about him is he's a knuckleball pitcher.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: I think he might be the only one in the
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: majors right now. He throws the knuckleball, which you know,
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, he does kind of have those numbers that
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: look like what you would get out of a knuckleballer.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: His command is actually not that bad though his walk
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: number really isn't that bad. He doesn't strike out a
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: lot of guys. But the knuckleball, you know what the
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: knuckleball does, like you're trying to get guys to hit
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: soft contact, you know what I mean, And that's what
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: he does. He's not walking a lot of guys. Usually
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: you see like a lot of wildness sometimes from knuckleballers,
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: not really with him. His numbers overall in his career
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: are okay, four point eighty six ERA, one point two
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: nine whip. But when guys like haven't seen him or whatever,
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: he could definitely fool some hitters. But I don't know
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: how is he gonna respond to not having pitched in
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: the majors basically since twenty twenty four. I don't know.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: I haven't looked at what he did in the miners
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: this year. I guess maybe I should do that. I'm
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: gonna do it right now. Matt waldron in the miners.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: Let me see here, he was pitching in Triple A.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna look right now. He made three starts at
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: Triple A this year. He had his zero ERA in
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: Triple A this year. That's pretty good. Only in twelve innings,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: but still, that's pretty good. Yeah, he really didn't allow
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: a lot of anything, so they determined he was ready
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: to go. Man, his whip was point sixty seven. He
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: had seven hits allowed and one walk. It looks like so,
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: I know it's a small sample size, but yeah, he
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: pitched pretty well in Triple A this season. But yeah,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: so they determined he was ready. Whatever, We'll see what
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: he can do. Man. I mean, I don't know if
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: we consider him a veteran at this point, but he
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: has made a couple of you know, he has a
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: couple of major league seasons under his belt. He'll probably
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: at least be excited to get back out there, at
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: the very least. Going up against Anaheim, They're only one
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: for fourteen lifetime off him with no extra base hits.
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: He only hits a darna RBI single. It looks like
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: four strikeouts no walks against them. So the Angels have
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: not done well against him when they have seen him
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: in the past. He's going up against Jose Soriano, who
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: has been really good this season. And Soriano's got a
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: point three to three ERA and point six to seven
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: WHIP and has a win in every start so far.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: He's allowed one run on the entire season and only
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: nine hits in twenty seven innings. He's allowing one run
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: one hit every three innings right now. It's pretty unbelievable actually,
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: and he's you know, he's a guy that definitely has
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: shown that he has talent. He has strikeout stuff. He's
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: got thirty one strikeouts and nine walks so far. Probably
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: it's a few too many walks, but the strikeout rate
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: is really high and he's allowing very few hits. But
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: the thing about him is just looking at his recent seasons,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: he's been bad at home. Like last year, he was
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: way better on the road than he was at home.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: And I know we took advantage of how good he
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: was on the road. We had an under. I think
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: in one of these games, I forget which one it was.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: It might have been the Cubs game, maybe it was
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: the Houston game. I don't know, I forget one of
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: those early games. We did get a win on the under.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: Now he's only made one home start this year, though,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: so we do have to keep it in mind that
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: last year he was really bad at home and he
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: was really good on the road. But his one home
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: start was really good. It was an eight inning, three
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: hit shutout or no, sorry, eight innings, three hits one run.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: The only run he allowed was a home run in
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: that start against Atlanta, but he didn't walk anybody and
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: he had ten strikeouts. Yeah, I mean he's a good
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: for him, man, I mean he might be taking the
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: next step here. I know he's twenty seven, so he's
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: not at the beginning of his career or anything. But
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: he looks really good this year. Obviously, the numbers are
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: so good that they're unsustainable. Though. Against San Diego his
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: numbers are pretty good and forty six at bats two
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: sixty one average A lot isn't great, but six seventy
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: six oh ps is good. Hasn't really allowed much power
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: to them a home run from Machado, but other than that,
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: not a whole lot going on. Only four strikeouts though
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: in three walks. That's not great. But yeah, Soriano looks
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: pretty good right now, though, Man, what do we want
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: to do with this game? It's difficult to figure out.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is in a terrible spot though. Man. They're down
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: to minus one thirty one, sixty eight percent of tickets
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the cash on them though, so
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: the money's coming in on Anaheim. But as far as
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: the side, you know, I kind of lean towards San
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: Diego here as long as Waldron can kind of battle
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: Soriano here, and then you get the San Diego bullpen advantage.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: The rest advantage kicks in, you know what I mean,
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: the fact that they're staying on the Pacific times, and
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: I think there's some huge advantages to San Diego here.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: It's just do we dare fade Anaheim here and the
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: money's coming in on Anaheim? I don't know, man, do
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: you trust Waldron in his first game after like almost
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: missing Yeah, like basically an entire season. I don't know.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: You could potentially maybe consider an under. I mean, this
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: game is at eight and a half right now, eighty
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, seventy eight percent of the cash on
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: the under. If I was gonna go under, I would
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: not include the bullpens though. I mean, this Anaheim bullpen
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: is way too bad to want to do anything with them.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: So I would go first under if you wanted to
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: do it that way. But then again, we have you know,
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: Soriano wasn't as good at home last year. We don't
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: know what we're gonna gonna get out of Waldron here.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: It's a really interesting game though, Yeah, really interesting pitching matchup.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: It's crazy you have like this, you know, high velocity
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: strikeout guy going up against a knuckleballer. It's gonna be interesting.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: We'll see what happens in that game, all right. White
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: Sox are having to go out to the West coast
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: here to the A's, so a lot of times when
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: these seems have to travel out west for kind of
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: a late night game, it can mess with their biological clock,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: so I will point that out. The White Sox did
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: just get swept at home against Tampa Bay though, so
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: in a way, it might be good to just go
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: out on the road because usually you will be focused
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: to start the road trip. But again, playing later in
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: a different time zone is not exactly helpful. And the
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: A's are staying at home, so the A's do have
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: that advantage where they're just staying in their ballpark. But
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: it's not their ballpark. It's a Triple A ballpark and
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: it is terrible. And the A's also used a bunch
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: of relief pitchers and their bullpend is also not good.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: They used four relief pitchers yesterday. The White Sox used
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: what is that seven? Six? The White Sox basically used
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: their entire bullpend yesterday, so that's not good. And these
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: are two bad bullpends as well. The A's are twenty
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: fifth in bullpen whip and the White Sox are twenty seventh,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: so we have two bad bullpends that are both pretty
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: used up after yesterday. These are bullpends that you definitely
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: want to fade. I would say here. As far as
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: the hitting is concerned, the A's are the better offense.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: They do have a lot of talent on this offense,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: but it just hasn't really come around yet. But they
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: they really started hitting well in the second half last year,
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: so I kind of think they're gonna do that again.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: But they're at twenty fourth right now. The White Sox
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: are just putrid though thirtieth in offense, They're just miserable
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: on offense. Just they're the worst ops I think, and
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: the worst batting averag and it's not even really even
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: that close, although hilariously the Mets are the second worst.
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, So what do we do? Like, Can
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: the White Sox actually hit? I think maybe they can
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: in this game, possibly because they're gonna be facing some
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: pitching that's not that good. They're gonna be in a
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly ballpark for the A's or excuse me for the wait,
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: what the hell was I just thinking? I was thinking, Yeah,
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: I thought it was the A's. Maybe it was two
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: days ago, because I remember the A's had like some
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: crazy walk off win. I think it was two games
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: ago though, because they lost last night to Texas. Two
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: games ago they had a really dramatic walk off win
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: on a Nick Kurtz just kind of blooped the ball
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: down the left field line and drove in three runs
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: with it. There was just nothing anybody could do about it.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: It was, you know, kind of bullshit, but you know,
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: you just hit it in an area with it where
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: no fielder can get to it. You know. Kurts is
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: good though, And plus Nick Kurtz announcers have to pronounce
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: his name is always fun. Uh, they're gonna sound like
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: the old timey radio announcers with him out there, all right.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: Davis Martin is pitching for the White Sox here. He's
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: actually been good this season. Two point five yr, one
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: point one to one whip, fifteen to four strikeout walk ratios,
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: sixteen hits, a lout in eighteen innings. Can't complain a
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: whole lot about this. He's gone at least five innings
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: in every outing. Surprisingly not bad from Martin so far,
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: but he is having to go to this A's stadium now,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: where I don't know if he's pitched there before, but
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: it might not be good. But he has been good
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: against the A's generally. In thirty two at bats, six strikeouts,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: no walks, one eighty eight batting average allowed, five thirty
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: one ops. He's actually pitched well against the A's, believe
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: it or not. Let me see if he pitched in
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: this stadium last year. He did. Actually he had a
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: six inning shutout and they lost the game in extra innings.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: But he did have a six inning shutout in this
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: ballpark in April, so he's gonna cooler a cooler time
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: of year. But it's April now, so what are we
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: saying here? So Martin might actually be able to pitch well.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: They're His worst start against the A's was actually at
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: home against them, so that's interesting, and he kind of
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: bounced back in the next game. Where a lot of
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: times when a lineup has just seen a pitcher, they'll
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: tee off on him the next time. But a lot
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: of times if the pitcher did bad the first time.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: They'll make those adjustments and it'll be kind of like
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: a zigzag. You know. We haven't really gotten into any
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: of that yet this season, but Aaron Savale is making
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: the start for the A's here. They picked him up,
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: I guess over the offseason. He's been good to start
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: the season as well. One point seven two, ERA, point
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: nine to six whip Now. I don't think either of
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: these starters are as good as their numbers would suggest,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: but their numbers have been fine this year. Is not
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: quite as good a twelve to five strike up walk Razio.
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: He's allowed too many fly balls to really want to
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: deal with him in this ballpark, which, by the way,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: he hasn't pitched in this stadium yet this season. He's
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: made all road starts, although they were against the Braves,
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: the Yankees, and the Mets, so you do have to
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: give him credit for that. I mean, the Mets. I
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: know their offense has been terrible this season, but these
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: are offenses with a lot of talent, and two of
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: the three, well, actually maybe not the Yankees. The Yankees
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: haven't been hitting that well, but even so, I still
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: think that's pretty impressive that he did that against those
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: lineups fifteen to two thirds innings pitch, ten hits allowed,
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: that's pretty good. That's not a lot of hits. So
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: he's pitched well, but he's not pitched in this horrible
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: stadium yet, even though pitching against this White Sox pathetic
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: offense is gonna be a step down from all the
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: offenses he's seen so far. But the White Sox they
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: have twenty four at bats off him. It's only four
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: hitters we've seen him before, but they have a three
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: seventy five average off him in twelve ninety eight ops,
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: six strikeouts, and four walks, so they've really teed off
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: on him. But maybe you shouldn't put that much weight
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: into it because it's mostly been and ten dy five
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: for thirteen with two of them runs off him in
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: three walks, So maybe you have to temper that a
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: little bit. And as far as Savali, he was on
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: the White Sox last year, by the way, so this
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: is probably gonna be the first time that he's pitching
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: against the White Sox since they got rid of them,
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: which is another interesting scenario here. Uh yeah, correct, he
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: went to the Cubs after he was on the White
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: Sox and he did not face the White Sox after that,
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: So yeah, so he might actually step up his game
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit to play against a White Sox team
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: that got rid of him. Sometimes the pitcher will want
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: to do better in a case like that, I feel
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: like I'm over analyzing this game and I don't even
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: have a play on this game. The A's are up
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: to minus one fifty five. Like I said, they have
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: some advantages here the situation, the fact that they're staying
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: in the Pacific time zone helps them. But maybe the
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: White Sox will be focused to start the road trip here,
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: and Martin does have the better matchup numbers, so there
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: are some indicators to maybe look towards the White Sox here.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: Eighty seven percent of tickets ninety six percent of the
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: cash on the A's here though, so the money kind
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: of indicating on the A's and very strongly on the under,
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: although the total initially flipped to nine juice to the over.
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: We have fifty five percent of tickets on the over,
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: ninety six percent of the cash on the under. Money
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: indicating on the under right now, but I kind of
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: lean over. I mean, you have two pitchers that I
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: think are overperforming right now and then the bullpens are
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: just absolutely miserable. So I think if you can get
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: to those bullpens early enough in this game, you're gonna
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: see some runs in this game. So I would probably
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: lean over, and you know, it's a very hit or
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: friendly ballpark, but you gotta get You gotta at least
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: get something against these starting pitchers though, if you do that,
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if I necessarily want to do that.
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: If you were gonna go under in this game and
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: go with the market, you have to do it first
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: five inning. There's no way you want these bullpens involved
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: in that play there. So those are my thoughts on that.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: Oh man, this is gonna be a long episode. We
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: still have two more games, Texas and Seattle, and then
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: the NBA's turning over from a road trip. But they
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: only went to San Diego, and you know, I think
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: that they can maybe bounce back. I mean, that was
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: a bad series. They just got swept by San Diego,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: even though they were returning home. They weren't away for
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: that long, and a lot of times the team will
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: bounce back from getting swept like that unless they're returning
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: home from a really long road trip. They're staying in
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: the Pacific times and we know Seattle does do well
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: in this stadium, like their pitchers seem to all be
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: better at home. Texas is coming in from the A's
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: so they are staying on the Pacific time zone as well.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: Nearing the end of a road trip. But I think
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: they're gonna get up for this game against Seattle. But
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: maybe Seattle's a little under the radar right now, man,
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: because Seattle, you know, the public might not want them
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: right now. They're gonna be a favorite in this game,
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: but they're a bit under the radar, I think right
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: now because they've just been bad over the last three
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: or four games. Texas is ahead of them in the standings,
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: but I think Seattle is actually the better team here.
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: Pitching wise, both bullpens pretty good. Seattle's is seventh right
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: now in Whip. Texas is a little bit worse at twelfth. Yeah,
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: I think Seattle probably does have a slightly better bullpen,
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: but they're both pretty good. Seattle's offense has not been
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: good to start the season at twenty fifth, but they
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: have enough talent in that offense that I expect them
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: to rise a little bit. Texas is at eighteenth, right now,
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: they've started to drop a bit. I think Seattle's offense
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: may actually be the better offense here over Texas like
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: they were last year. Kind Of hard to gauge right now,
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: but they're pretty close right now. Texas used a lot
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: of relief pitchers yesterday they used five. Seattle used two.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: So Seattle has a bullpen that year with the rest
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: as well. So Seattle does have some advantages here, maybe
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: not in the starting pitching. Jacob deGrom is pitching for
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: the Rangers. He's really really good. He's still pitching well
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: related to his career two point eight seventy r point
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: nine to six whip. We got a win with him.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: We played him against the Dodgers. He's coming off that game.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: He beat the Dodgers in his most recent outing. But
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: I don't really expect him to have a letdown in
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: another big game here. He's a veteran, you know. But
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: one issue is he did actually just pitch against Seattle.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: So as I was just referencing, when you have pitchers
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: that just saw a team, that offense is now recently
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: familiar with that team with that picture, I mean, so
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: that offense might actually do better against that picture. The
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: next time out, So Seattle might actually hit to Grom
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit better this time because they just saw him,
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: but maybe not because I mean, he's a picture they've
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: seen a lot like. I think that works a little
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: bit better when it's like a picture. Like if a
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: pitcher did well when a lineup was unfamiliar with them,
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: now they're familiar with them, and now they face them again,
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: I think that's a stronger angle, whereas in this case,
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: obviously they've seen de Gram a lot like he's been
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: around for a long time, so I don't think there's
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: as much weight to be put into something like that
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: in a situation like this against Seattle. He has good
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: numbers in his career seven seven at bats, twenty six
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: to eleven strikeout walk ratio, though that is a lot
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: of walks. That is a little bit of a concern.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: The five home runs, I guess, is a little bit concerning,
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: but this is not a home run conduce a ballpark.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: Neither of these teams playing home run conduce of ballpark,
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: so they're both pitching friendly. One to eighty two batting
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: average allowed six to seventy four OPS allowed, So yeah,
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: that OPS is a little bit higher than you'd think
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: with that really low batting average, but it's still a
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: pretty good number, so I think he'll still do well here.
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: Logan Gilbert is pitching for Seattle. Four point one ad
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: R doesn't look that good. One point one whip is good.
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: Gilbert is a pretty good pitcher, and he is better
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: at home than on the road, and he started a
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: bitch better. He's been improving this month. Two starts in April,
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: he has a twelve to one strikeout walk ratio and
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: two point zero eighty R, so he's in better recent
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: form right now. One of his worst start was against
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: the Yankees, and we know they can hit, so even
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: though it was in this stadium, but he's facing a
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: weaker offense here. He does tend to pitch better at home. Now.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: Of course, he did just face Texas, so that same
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: advantage works both ways. If the hitters have any extra
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: advantage because they just saw the pitcher, that works both ways.
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: But these offenses are already familiar with these two pitchers anyway,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: because this is a divisional matchup, so I don't think
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: that matters. But yes, he did just go six innings
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: at Texas, held them to tour and runs five strikeouts,
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: no walk so he pitched well there against Texas in
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: his career. Good numbers one hundred and forty seven at
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: bats so, like I said, they have a ton of
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: history against him. Forty two to ten strike out walk
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: race is quite good, one ninety seven batting average allowed
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: five to eighty nine ops, so his numbers are really
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: good there. I do like Seattle in this game again
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: there at minus won twenty five. The money's agreeing with that. Again,
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: I think it could be bounced back time, although I
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: do worry that they are returning home from a road
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: trip technically, although it was only to San Diego, fifty
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: two percent of tickets eighty one percent of the cash
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: on Seattle here. You know, again, I'm not gonna disagree
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: with Seattle. I would lean to the Seattle side. I
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: think Gilbert, you know, de Grom like just has so
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: much weight, you know, behind his name and whatever. Gilbert
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: does have slightly better matchup numbers, and he is better
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: at home, so I think he might be a little
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: bit under the radar, and I think at worst he
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: can definitely duel against Degram in this one. But I
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: also think it's gonna be a pitching duel here. So
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: my instinct was to go under here because you have
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: two good bullpens as well. But looking at the game,
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: the totals at six and a half, I mean, the
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers know that we have two pretty good starting pitchers here.
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: The bullpens are pretty good, even though they're a little
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: bit unrested, not too bad. And this is a very
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly ballpark. And the money is actually hitting the
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: over a little bit eighty two percent of tickets, ninety
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on the over. You know me,
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: I pretty much just never A'm gonna go under six
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: and a half. I want to get that key number
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: of seven, even though there are a lot of professionals
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: that will tell you that the six and a half
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: half is meant like the oddsmakers want you to not
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: play the under when they put up a six and
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: a half because it's so low that they want you
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: to just not play, or they really I think they
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: are trying to goad you into playing the over. But
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it. Man. The last time I
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: said this, we did have a four to three result
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: in a game that had a six and a half total.
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: It could definitely go under. I mean, if you wanted
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: to force my hand on this and give you an
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: opinion on the total, I would say under in this game. Still,
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: maybe first five inning under you can get a better
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: value on this, because that's probably the biggest advantage that
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: you have with going under, is that both starting pitchers
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: should do well. Here. First five inning under you're probably
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: gonna be looking at a three, But I'm maybe a
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: two and a half would be insane. I don't know
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: if you'd get a two and a half, probably a three,
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: maybe that is the better way to go. First five
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: inning under three gets a little bit risky with totals
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: that low. I'm staying away from it, but I do
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be a low scoring game, and I
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: do lean to Seattle again. I just think the fact
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: that Seattle has the worst record and they're favored yet again, Yeah,
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think they'll win the game. Toronto at
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: Arizona is the last game here. Arizona's returning home from
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: a long road trip. They're in the worst road trip
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: return spot of any of these teams here. They just
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: went to the East Coast. They played pretty well on
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: the road trip, winning the series against the Mets, winning
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: the series against the Phillies, winning the series against Baltimore,
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: and now they're returning home from all that. I think
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: Arizona looks a little bit too good right now. Probably
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: a negative spot. Man again, when you return home from
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: a long road trip like that across multiple time zones, Yeah,
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: it's bad. It's gonna mess with your biological clock. You
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: could be in a letdown mode, could be in a
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: distracted mode having to get back to home life. Toronto
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: played yesterday though, and I believe Arizona did not, so that,
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe cuts into that advantage a little bit.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: Because Toronto was in Milwaukee yesterday. Zona didn't play yesterday,
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: So Arizona has a little bit of a rest advantage.
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: But that return home spot is a big time negative
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: though Toronto coming in from losing to Milwaukee. Those are
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: some tough games, you know. Maybe they still have a
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: little bit of an advantage here though, again against that
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: really really bad road trip spot for Arizona. As far
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: as the bullpens forst Arizona was off yesterday, both these
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: bullpens are actually I don't think that good. Toronto used
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: three relief pitchers yesterday. Now Arizona's bullpen is ranked fourth
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: in WHIP, and I don't get it, man, because their
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: era is way worse than that, even though I know
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: whip is a better indicator, but I still don't buy
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: that Arizona's bullpen is good. They have no lefties in
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: the bullpen. Their bullpen looks like it's pretty much as
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: bad as last year's with the personnel they have, I
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: have no clue. Even though they got rid of my man,
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: Jalen Beaks. I don't think Arizona's the fourth best bullpen.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: I really don't. But the Blue Jays bullpen has not
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: been good. They're at nineteenth, so I guess you do
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: have to give Arizona bullpen and their bullpen is more rested,
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: so that we'll be an advantage for Arizona a little
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: bit here. As far as the hitting is concerned, Arizona
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: has not hit well this year, even though their hitting
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: looks like it should be fairly good. They're at twentieth
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: right now, the Blue Jays at twenty second. Blue Jay's
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: have been dealing with some injuries. I don't know if
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: those guys are back or not. I do kind of
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: think that both offenses will improve, though we got two
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 1: pitchers that I don't know what to do with. In
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: this game, Eric Lauer is pitching for the Blue Jays.
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: He had a really, really good season last year. This
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: season has been awful so far. Seven point eight two ERA,
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: one point five to eight whip. I think clearly he's
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: not as bad as this, but maybe he's not what
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: we saw last year. Maybe last year was a fluke.
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, some of these numbers this year are just
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: really bad, like not something I would want to get
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: involved with. Twelve to nine strike at walk ratio in
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: twelve to two thirds innings. That walk number, really, that's
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 1: the bad number. The walk number is terrible, and eleven
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: hits isn't really that bad. But yeah, he's been all
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: over the place and he just got wrecked by Minnesota
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: as his last game, and he's given up eight walks
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: in his last couple of outings across seven and the
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: third innings, including a game against the White Sox. He's
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: not in good form right now. That's not good. Against Arizona,
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: his numbers are kind of all over the place. It's
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: sixty nine at bats, fourteen to seven strike out walk ratio.
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: That's bad. Five of those walks are aeronauto though Aronado
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: kills him well kind of seven to twenty four with
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: a double in, three home runs and the five walks,
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: two forty six batting average allowed overall to them and
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: eight forty eight ohps is definitely high, so I don't
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: trust lower in that matchup or in the current form
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: that he's in. He's going up against Michael Saraka, who
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: is new to the Diamondbacks this year, and he is
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: actually pitching well. Two point eight seven ERA, one point
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: two to one WHIP. Pretty solid numbers so far this year,
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: really nice looking twenty three to six strikeout walk ratio
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: along with thirteen hits a lot of fifteen and two
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: thirds innings. That is too many walks, but the strikeout
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: rate is really high. He's not been very hittable, so overall, yeah,
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: he's been good. He did take a little bit of
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: a step back in his most recent game, his first
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: road start against Philadelphia, but he is back at home here,
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: although Arizona is a hitter friendly park, but he's been
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: good in this stadium this year, so maybe he will
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: continue to do so. He's going up against the Blue
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: Jays offense that does hit him fairly well though twenty
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: six at bats seven to four strikeout walk ratio, and
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: this of course does not include the injured guys Kirk
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: and Springer two sixty nine batting average allowed, oneenty twenty one. Ohps,
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: that's not good. He Menez, his two of them runs
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: off him and Sanchez has won, so he's given up
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 1: some power to them. And like I said, seven to
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: four strike out walk ratio is not good. You might
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 1: want to take a stab with an over in this one.
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 1: That's probably what I would do. Total did drop from
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: nine all the way down to eight and a half here,
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: but we see money coming back in on the over,
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: and now it's below that key number of nine. You
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: know it's a hitter friendly park. The bullpens are untrustworthy.
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: Both starters look like they don't particularly match up well here,
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: sixty four percent of tickets, ninety six percent of the
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: cash on the over. I'm not gonna disagree with an
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: over here. I'm probably gonna slightly lean to Toronto as well,
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: because the spot is so bad for Arizona. They dropped
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: for minus one fifty four to minus one thirty one,
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: but seventy four percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 1: the cash on Arizona. You know, I don't love that really,
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: And you could make the argument Arizona as a bullpen
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: advantage here, especially with the rest. So if you wanted
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: to do that, maybe you go first five innings. But
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: the money is indicating on Arizona now, and Eric Lawer
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: has been in such bad form that how can you
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: really make a bet on him? Right, So I think
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: that's kind of out of the question. Even though the
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: situation looks really bad for Arizona. I think my preference
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: would be to go over the total in that game.
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: And that's it for baseball finally, But NBA, we only
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: got two games here, Hornets and Magic. These are both
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: gonna be for the eight seed here, So whoever wins
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: this game is gonna play the Detroit Pistons. The Hornets
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: are three and a three point favorite. They were a
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: four point favorite at one point. All the money's coming
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: in on Orlando here, sixty three percent of the tickets
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: on the Hornets. The Hornets are a hype side, man,
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: They're a public side. And yes, the oswigers are telling
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: you they're better than Orlando. I don't disagree that they're
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: better than Orlando, but is it really justified that they
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 1: should be laying three points on the road in this
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: spot against a Magic team that does have more experience
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 1: than they do in games like this. I don't know
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: that it's justified. Sixty three percent of tickets on the
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: Hornets seventy four percent of the cash on the Magic.
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean towards taking the points of the Magic here, man,
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: nobody's gonna want them. I really did think that they
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: would do better against Philadelphia. I don't know what they
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: were doing in that game, Like with mbid out for Philadelphia,
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 1: the Magic should have been attacking the rim, you know
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: what I mean, drive to the basket, and they weren't
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 1: doing that. I don't know what is going on with
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: this Magic team. Looks like their coach might get fired.
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: I know there were all those rumors around that the
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: players don't want to play for him anymore, but come on, man,
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 1: this is your last shot. You can still make the
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: playoffs here. Playoffs. Yeah, so, I don't know. So the Hornets,
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: they do have a rest edge, which usually does not happen.
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: Usually the seventh seed usually gets the rest advantage here,
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: so both teams have at least one day off, but
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: the Hornets have two days off, but usually it's the
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: team that played in the seven to eight game, the
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: Magic of the eight seed actually, as far as going
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 1: into the play and I mean, but the seven to
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 1: eight matchup usually gets played first to give that the
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: loser of that team a rest advantage. But because the
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: fl Liars were playing and they played in the same
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: arena as the Sixers, they couldn't do that, So the
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: Magic and Sixers had to play after the Hornets game
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: against the Heat. So yeah, the Hornets have a little
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: bit of a rest advantage here, but I still don't
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: think this is justified. The Magic still didn't play yesterday. Again,
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: nobody wants the Magic. The Hornets look good, but remember
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 1: they were losing pretty much that whole game to Miami,
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: remember at home, So the Hornets didn't exactly do well
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: in that game. Although then again, maybe you know a
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: favorite that doesn't do that well. The argument could be
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: made that they're gonna do better the next game. But
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: then again, the Magic looks so bad in their game
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 1: that the public doesn't want anything to do with them,
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: And yeah, maybe you do have to worry about there
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 1: being that turmoil there in the locker room or whatever.
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 1: But again the like this is their last chance, they're
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 1: at home. The Magic have been here, you know, they've
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: done it before. Both teams are having to travel, Hornets
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: having to go down from Charlotte, Magic coming in from Philadelphia. Again,
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: the Magic or the team that's been here though, and
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: they've done it before, Like they've been in the playoffs
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 1: every year recently, so they have the experience. I think
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: giving them this many points is kind of ridiculous, so
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: I would lean to the Magic plus the points there.
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: The total is down to two eighteen and a half,
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: down from two twenty, so the money is indicating on
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: the under. I don't disagree with it, but it has
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: dropped a bit there now. I think the Magic are
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: correlated with the under here though, sixty ten percent of
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: tickets and only sixty two percent of the cash on
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: the over. The Hornets are going to want to try
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 1: to speed the game up and score and jack up
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 1: a bunch of three pointers, but the Magic they can
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: actually defend against that. The Magic are okay. I think
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 1: at defending the three. They do have a lot of
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: pretty physical, kind of big guards on their team that
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: defend pretty well, so the Magic might be able to
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: counter what the Hornets are going to try to do.
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: And even though the Magic I think have been trying
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 1: to go up tempo at some points this year, I
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: think they're going to intentionally want to try to slow
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: this game down. Like I kind of said with the
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: Heat the other day, I think the Magic might be
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: able to do that. Uh. So I'm gonna lean Magic
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 1: plus the points and under uh the totals a little
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: bit iffy now that it's dropped a little bit. I
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: think my preference would be Magic plus the points in
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: that game, dirty sock, I forget if I said high
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: or not. What's up? Man? All right? And then my
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: play is in the other game. I told you I
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: have a play, and we're also agreeing with the market
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: in this other game. Uh, we're gonna go with the
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: Phoenix Suns minus three. Here. It looks like you can
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 1: find the three out there right now. I know it's
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: gone up a little bit from two to three. I
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 1: saw threes and three and a half's out there. I
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: think the Suns are gonna get this thing done. Man,
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not buying into this. You know, last ride for
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: Steph Curry where they're gonna the Warriors are gonna make
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 1: a run all the way to the finals. Yeah, no,
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's gonna happen. Sixty two tickets on
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: the Warriors, seventy of the cash coming in the Sun
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: money is agreeing on the Suns. First of all, the
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: Suns do have the rest advantage here because they did
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: actually play the typical seven to eight game. They have
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: an extra day of rest, and they lost to Portland
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: at home, so the Sons are staying at home. They're
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: the only one of these teams is not traveling. The
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: Sons are staying at home, and they're coming off losing
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: as a favorite, and it was a game they should
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 1: have won. They were winning the game by like eleven
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: or thirteen points with four minutes to go or something.
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know how they lost that game. They missed
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 1: like a bunch of field goals in a row. They
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 1: missed some crucial free throws. I'm sorry, but yeah, when
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 1: a team does that, like the Suns clearly should have
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 1: won that game and we're the better team, so I
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: think the result was misleading, and the Warriors result was
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 1: misleading in the other direction because they were involved in
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: that game where the Clippers had like a double digit
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 1: lead late in that game and completely imploded, and the
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: Warriors had like a miracle comeback and winning that game,
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 1: coming back from double digits at the end of that
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: game to somehow win that game. I think they were
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: still down eight with like a couple of minutes left,
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: you know, they hit a couple of crazy threes. Al
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 1: Horford hitting threes like that Steph Curry. I don't know
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: if that's gonna happen again, man. I think that was
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: kind of like a last gas type of effort there. Yes,
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: the Warriors do have a ton of experience. I get it.
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: They got Curry. Of course, you never want to count
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 1: him out. Horford. You know, Porzingis actually did some stuff
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 1: in that game. You know, Kerr obviously very experienced coach. Yes,
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: the Warriors do have an experience edge, which I did
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: say against the Clippers, even though I still thought the
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 1: Warriors weren't even gonna beat the Clippers, and they probably
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: shouldn't have. But yeah, I just I don't think it's
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: gonna happen again. Man. I think that was kind of
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 1: a flash in the pan. Warriors had to make a
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: miracle comeback in that game. It took a miracle comeback
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 1: for the Suns to lose that game. There are just
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: too many advantages here. I know the Warriors did play
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 1: well against the Suns this year. I think the Suns
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: only beat them once and it was at home by
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: one point. So I understand that that the Sons have
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: not come this number against the Warriors all season, but
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: I think a couple of those games were earlier when
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 1: the Warriors had Buttler and whatever. I think the Suns
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: did actually lose to a currylous Warriors, but even so, Yeah,
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna kind of throw that out. Man, when it
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: comes to playoff time. You don't want to put too
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: much weight into those season numbers there. And for the
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 1: Magic and Hornets, by the way, I forgot to even
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: kind of look at what those teams did against each other.
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: I usually kind of just call attention to it though,
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: just to you know, just to not call attention to it,
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 1: but just pointed out, just to point out everything that
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: went on. I can look real quick here if I
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: look at the actual regular season. I hate how they
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 1: switch it like that. Yeah, so the Magic one at
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: Charlotte in October, remember that was before Charlotte was this good.
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 1: Charlotte beat them in December at home around Christmas time,
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: and then Charlotte killed the Magic and Charlotte in January
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 1: and then killed them again. Oh no, this is the
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: Magic killed them in Orlando. Sorry, So Orlando lost both
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: games to Charlotte on this floor and then lost again
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 1: at Charlotte in March in a blowout. But remember that
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: was like without like some of their best players here.
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: I think Orlando had a bunch of injuries going on
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 1: in that game, Like Wagner definitely didn't play in that game. Actually,
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: yeah it was. I think Wagner and maybe Suggs might
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 1: have missed that game. I'm not sure, but those guys
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: are back for Orlando now, and maybe, you know, the
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: Hornets might take them a little bit less seriously because
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 1: the Hornets beat them three times in a row. So yeah,
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 1: I know I'm jumping all over the place here, but yeah,
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 1: and then Phoenix at Golden State. You know, I'll just
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: show it real quick, just so that we have the
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 1: posterity here. Phoenix lost at Golden State in November by eleven,
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 1: beat them at home by one, like I said, although
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: I think that was against a that might have been
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: before the Butler injury. I forget, and then they turned
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: around and lost. But it was a zigzag when they
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: lost at Golden State literally the next game, and then
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: they lost again on this floor by four points most
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: recently of February. But again I think they might zigzag
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 1: from that, you know what I mean, because they know
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: they lost to this Golden State team without Curry. I'm
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: pretty sure by the way on this floor they might
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 1: have you know, they might have taken them lightly coming
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 1: into that game. I don't know what that was. But
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: now that they know Curry's back, they know what Golden
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: State just did. They know everything is on the line here.
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 1: Both these games are on Prime. By the way, yeah,
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 1: we're still gonna do it. We're gonna lay the points
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: with Phoenix. And by the way, the history is on
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 1: Phoenix's side because I believe only one ten seed has
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 1: ever actually made it through the play in, which I
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: think was the Miami Heat some years ago. Like I
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: mentioned it, I might even be wrong about that. The
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: Heat might have actually even been a nine there. So
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it's possible that no ten seed has
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: ever made it. I'm not sure, but every seventh seed
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: has made the playoffs, and Phoenix is a seventh seed.
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 1: Like I said, the ten years of the play in
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: so far, this is the eleventh year. In the previous ten,
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: eight seven seeds won their first game and took the
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 1: seventh seed, and the other two that lost won this
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 1: game and got in. So the history is on Phoenix's
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: side at least to win. I think if they win,
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 1: it's pretty likely they're gonna cover. So yes, we're gonna
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 1: go with Phoenix the Suns minus the points. There, man,
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it. Finally, the players today, one more
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 1: time are a first five inning under in Royals Yankees
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: are based on that pitching matchup. I think we're really
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 1: getting a nice price on that. Again. I found that
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: at the Roman Emperor's house there, the Roman Emperor's Palace,
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: that book had that number. Again, if you find even
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: a minus one twenty or if you want to go
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: under four at a better price, I think any of
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: those are options there. We're going over in Saint Louis Houston,
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: which I think is just an absolute disaster of a
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup in that game. So over in that one,
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 1: and then we got the Phoenix Suns minus the points.
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: Those are my plays today. Let's take get back on
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: track with a winning day. Man, a one on one
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: is not terrible, but you know, I'm not happy about
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: a slight loss. Like, let's hope the hot streak is
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 1: not totally over a lot of dude. Maybe I'm gonna
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: hangover spot here because we just had a huge losing
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: streak busted. We had won eleven game eleven days in
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: a row where I'd actually made plays or whatever. We're
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 1: all wins. So yeah, maybe I will be in a
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: hangover spot today, but hopefully not. Hopefully I'm not on
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 1: tilt here. Let's get it done. I appreciate it everybody,
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 1: And oh yeah, I gotta plug everything of course. Learn
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: a tone on Twitter, Learn a tone on Instagram. You
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: can subscribe to me on Twitter as well. Obviously boost
• 1:49:42
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• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: will want because I'm gonna have some upcoming stuff tonight
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 1: and tomorrow, maybe all of it tonight, the other stuff.
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 1: This show's on audio that helps me out listening over
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 1: there to Spotify, Apple Spreaker. We have covered in yuca
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 1: is my yuke channel on YouTube. I did just have
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: another yuke cover I did. I might put it up
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 1: on YouTube. I don't know. I'm not in the greatest
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 1: vocal state right now, so I don't know. We got
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com slash Learn it's over some bonus yuke
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 1: stuff that I don't pay attention to at all, and
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 1: Loser cast every Tuesday night, so you could check that
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: out as well. But subscribe to this channel here because
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 1: you will get notifications when I go live. I'm going
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: to have multiple things going on. I'm going to fill
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 1: out my NHL Playoff bracket, I'm going to fill out
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 1: my NBA Playoff bracket, and maybe I'll decide to do
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 1: both of those in one special tonight. I think maybe
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 1: I did that last year too, so maybe I'll do that,
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 1: but I will also, I believe before that, at some point,
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 1: even though we won't know who one of the eight
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 1: seeds is yet, before that, I think I am going
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 1: to have clint On. Although whoever wins this Phoenix game,
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 1: if that's the game, it's still undecided. I think there's
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: more it's more relevant who wins the Charlotte Orlando game,
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 1: because I think Charlotte actually is an interesting matchup to
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 1: give to Detroit, even though I think Detroit still will
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 1: beat them. But that makes it a little bit more interesting.
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 1: I think whoever comes out of Phoenix Golden State, they're
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 1: not beating the thunder, so I don't think that's gonna
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 1: affect what we're gonna talk about too much with Clint.
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 1: But I believe I will have Clint on at some
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: point tonight. I don't know exactly what time it's gonna be.
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: I'll announce that one. It will be an episode of
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 1: Bald Clint from Liberty Lockdown. Two bald guys talking about
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 1: ball and balls. So yes, I'm gonna talk to him.
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 1: I've talked to him already, but i'm gonna solidify that,
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 1: So that'll be some point tonight as well. So subscribe
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 1: and you'll get all this stuff. Man, that's gonna do
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: it for now. Peace,