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The Favorites - Todd McShay Talks NFL Draft · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
0:14
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. Today I'm
0:18
Speaker 1: joined as always by my co host, my companion, my Campadre,
0:23
Speaker 1: my BFF professional better Simon Hunter.
0:28
Speaker 2: Eto. So I am it.
0:30
Speaker 3: Hello chat.
0:31
Speaker 4: I think I have a fun fact for you today
0:33
Speaker 4: that you're gonna love. A couple of episodes ago, you
0:37
Speaker 4: called me out for my Irish goodbye at our party
0:40
Speaker 4: and if people have ever wondered, what do they call
0:42
Speaker 4: it in England, because they don't call an Irish goodbye
0:45
Speaker 4: obviously in England they call it a backdoor boogie. Really,
0:50
Speaker 4: just love the idea of someone turned into their mate
0:52
Speaker 4: saying yeah, I'm about the back door boogie and then
0:55
Speaker 4: just leave no such thing as an Irish goodbye.
0:57
Speaker 1: Did you get that from your mommy?
1:00
Speaker 4: No, just some British listeners, a diehard fan of ours,
1:03
Speaker 4: my cousin, No way.
1:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, So I thought that was really clever.
1:08
Speaker 1: Here's what I loved about that event. By the way,
1:11
Speaker 1: So we were there and I think I told this story.
1:13
Speaker 1: Did I tell the story about the kid I met
1:15
Speaker 1: from Indiana who had played soccer there, but he grew
1:18
Speaker 1: up in Liverpool and I told him that you were
1:22
Speaker 1: from northern England as well. And when I told him
1:25
Speaker 1: where you were from, he looked at me as like, man,
1:29
Speaker 1: that is hardcore. It's rough, old school England right there.
1:36
Speaker 5: Yeah, I told you.
1:37
Speaker 4: Anytime I do go, especially because I'm a big guy,
1:39
Speaker 4: like I'm tall and overweight, which is very American, I
1:43
Speaker 4: stick out like you wouldn't believe it. Like everyone could
1:45
Speaker 4: just tell I'm American immediately.
1:47
Speaker 5: When I'm walking around down there.
1:48
Speaker 3: So yeah, always fun going back home.
1:50
Speaker 1: Here's a fun fact if we're going to go into
1:54
Speaker 1: fun facts. So you know, I'm working on this book
1:57
Speaker 1: and so a lot of my days right now are
1:59
Speaker 1: spent and doing so much research. Like if you could
2:04
Speaker 1: see outside the camera frame, my desk is piled piled
2:11
Speaker 1: with books about gambling history, including David Schwartz Roll the
2:16
Speaker 1: Bones that we had on earlier in the year, and
2:21
Speaker 1: as well as newspaper articles, old photos. I told you
2:25
Speaker 1: I met with the grandson of the guy who invented
2:28
Speaker 1: the point spread, another very famous old school bookie who
2:33
Speaker 1: was a bookmaker with the Mob in the nineteen thirties
2:38
Speaker 1: and forties. His son sent me piles of newspapers and
2:42
Speaker 1: of clippings and piles of old photos, and like this morning,
2:46
Speaker 1: I was looking at a.
2:46
Speaker 2: Photo of this dude with three.
2:50
Speaker 1: World famous jockeys from the nineteen thirties and forties at
2:53
Speaker 1: a club in Havana, Cuba.
2:55
Speaker 2: Like real old school stuff, right.
2:59
Speaker 1: But one of the facts I read the other day,
3:02
Speaker 1: do you know why it's called handicapping? Do you know
3:05
Speaker 1: why everything we do is called handicapping?
3:09
Speaker 3: I always figured it was if you were wrong, they
3:11
Speaker 3: take your knee. No, the handicap, Yeah, no.
3:15
Speaker 2: It's not, it's not.
3:17
Speaker 1: It's in the eighteen seventies, the guy who ran like
3:24
Speaker 1: the Jockey Club of England, who was a royal admiral
3:29
Speaker 1: who probably had a name of Sir something or other.
3:34
Speaker 1: Everyone who loved horse racing in England, as you know,
3:37
Speaker 1: as we all know, and they were trying to find
3:40
Speaker 1: ways to make the races more even because there would
3:44
Speaker 1: be horses who were really fast and horses that were
3:46
Speaker 1: really slow, and they didn't have odds yet, and so
3:49
Speaker 1: they were trying to figure out how to make it
3:51
Speaker 1: better for betters. So they would add weights to the
3:54
Speaker 1: fast horses to give them a handicap, and that is
4:00
Speaker 1: how it's called handicapping.
4:01
Speaker 5: That's insane, isn't that great?
4:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that's funny. And then that and then golf
4:07
Speaker 3: took it. That's interesting.
4:08
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly right.
4:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, Betty has added to the vernacular of sports in
4:17
Speaker 1: so many freaking ways that I am I've always known,
4:21
Speaker 1: but I'm like unpacking and so many other facets as
4:26
Speaker 1: I go through this research. It's it's super fun. I
4:29
Speaker 1: can't wait to come to South Jersey and sit with
4:32
Speaker 1: you for the day and tell you everything, and tell
4:34
Speaker 1: you everything.
4:35
Speaker 2: I've learned so far.
4:36
Speaker 5: Looking forward to it.
4:37
Speaker 2: Brother, about this history.
4:38
Speaker 1: You know what else I'm looking forward to. We got
4:41
Speaker 1: a big, big guest coming on. This guy is so
4:48
Speaker 1: super famous in the world of draft. Draft coverage revolutionized
4:55
Speaker 1: the game. It can only be one of two people. Okay,
4:59
Speaker 1: I think you know who I'm talking about. I think
5:02
Speaker 1: the guests or the listeners know who I'm talking about.
5:05
Speaker 1: We're going to bring them on in a second. As
5:08
Speaker 1: a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by BET three
5:11
Speaker 1: sixty five and new BET three six five. Customers get
5:13
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. When you
5:15
Speaker 1: bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
5:19
Speaker 1: ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to get
5:20
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
5:23
Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
5:25
Speaker 1: and more, whatever the moment.
5:27
Speaker 2: It's never ordinary.
5:28
Speaker 1: A bet three sixty five must be twenty one or
5:30
Speaker 1: older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Illinois,
5:35
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
5:38
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
5:42
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Condition
5:44
Speaker 1: in restrictions apply all right, as promised, we're welcoming one
5:49
Speaker 1: of the most prominent media figures when it comes to
5:55
Speaker 1: the NFL Draft universe. You can argue that there's only
6:00
Speaker 1: two people that matter in this universe.
6:03
Speaker 2: And he is one of them. One of the longest
6:05
Speaker 2: running and.
6:06
Speaker 1: Most respected mock drafters anywhere. You can catch his NFL
6:12
Speaker 1: Draft live stream on the mcshae Show, on Spotify and
6:16
Speaker 1: YouTube you can subscribe to is very excellent draft newsletter,
6:20
Speaker 1: the mcshae Report.
6:22
Speaker 2: Welcome to the show, Todd McShay.
6:29
Speaker 5: It was a hell of an intro. I appreciate it, Chad.
6:32
Speaker 2: We like to shine on the show. You know why.
6:35
Speaker 1: We only get like supreme superior premium guests, so we
6:40
Speaker 1: go big.
6:41
Speaker 5: I appreciate it.
6:42
Speaker 6: So thanks for having me, Thanks for putting me in
6:45
Speaker 6: that shortlist.
6:46
Speaker 5: What's going on.
6:47
Speaker 1: Congrats on all the success, Congrats on the launch of
6:50
Speaker 1: the show. Congrats on the newsletter.
6:52
Speaker 5: Thank you.
6:52
Speaker 1: I know you've thought a lot about it. I know
6:53
Speaker 1: you worked hard on it. I'm super psyched for you.
6:56
Speaker 1: I'm glad it's working out. I don't want to waste
6:58
Speaker 1: your time. You got like a week before the draft.
7:00
Speaker 1: Every second is precious. You put out a new mock draft,
7:04
Speaker 1: very bold move, predicting a trade involving the Browns. You
7:12
Speaker 1: mocked the brown selecting Travis Hunter at number two and
7:16
Speaker 1: trading up with Atlanta to take Shador Sanders. Do you
7:20
Speaker 1: feel more or less confident about this prediction today? Do
7:25
Speaker 1: you feel confident about getting Sanders landing position correct? Being
7:29
Speaker 1: the pivot point of this year's mock process.
7:34
Speaker 6: I would say I feel as are more confident that
7:38
Speaker 6: Shador Sanders is not going to go in the first
7:41
Speaker 6: nine picks, which is saying a lot because I think
7:43
Speaker 6: a lot of people, including myself early on, thought that
7:47
Speaker 6: the Giants that was a possibility at three, right, I
7:51
Speaker 6: got off of that pretty quickly, and that I think
7:55
Speaker 6: everyone still to this day is saying, well, the Saints
7:57
Speaker 6: make a lot of sense.
7:58
Speaker 5: He doesn't have the big arm.
7:59
Speaker 6: You can play a dome, that division is good weather.
8:03
Speaker 6: Kellen Moore, I look at it this way, and I've
8:07
Speaker 6: got sources as well, but my initial reaction to that
8:10
Speaker 6: was Kellen. Quarterback coaches and offensive coordinators and offensive minded
8:15
Speaker 6: coaches they get used to and they kind of structure
8:20
Speaker 6: what they want to do around what they've worked with
8:21
Speaker 6: and what's been successful. He's been successful as an offensive
8:24
Speaker 6: coordinator in three different places, right. It's been with Dak
8:27
Speaker 6: Prescott in Dallas, It's been with Justin Herbert Los Angeles,
8:31
Speaker 6: and it's been with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia.
8:34
Speaker 5: That's not Shador man, That's just you.
8:37
Speaker 6: Know, Shador would fit with Cleveland and the reason why
8:40
Speaker 6: I had Cleveland trading up. And we'll get to that
8:41
Speaker 6: in a second. Like Kevin Stefanski is one with that
8:44
Speaker 6: kind of guy. He won like ten eleven games with
8:47
Speaker 6: guys who didn't have big time arms, including most recently
8:50
Speaker 6: Kirk Cousins. You know, not the biggest, not the strongest arm,
8:54
Speaker 6: not the most mobile. But so what makes them successful.
8:57
Speaker 6: It's fast processing, very you're throwing the ball around the field.
9:01
Speaker 5: So I like.
9:04
Speaker 6: Cleveland and Shadoor as a marriage in terms of what
9:07
Speaker 6: the coach is used to and what the coach has
9:09
Speaker 6: had success with at the quarterback position. But as we
9:12
Speaker 6: get closer to the draft, I think Jackson Dart is
9:15
Speaker 6: the Saints, the guy the Saints want, and it's because
9:19
Speaker 6: of those things I just mentioned. Jackson Dart is a sturdy, mobile,
9:22
Speaker 6: stronger arm quarterback. Right, I don't think a quarterback's going
9:25
Speaker 6: to go in the top nine. Now, the Derek Carr
9:28
Speaker 6: situation with the shoulder curious timing.
9:32
Speaker 5: That may speed up the process for the Saints.
9:35
Speaker 6: But Mickey loomis the GM there has a track record
9:38
Speaker 6: of targeting a player he wants and giving up whatever he.
9:40
Speaker 5: Has to get give up to go get him.
9:43
Speaker 6: So I envision a scenario in which we're looking at
9:46
Speaker 6: this and now all of a sudden Shador Sanders and
9:49
Speaker 6: Jackson Dart are still available at ten, and now the
9:52
Speaker 6: clock is ticking, and I think everyone in the league
9:55
Speaker 6: is well aware of Mike Tomlin and his affection for
9:58
Speaker 6: Shador Sanders and would like to get a at twenty one,
10:00
Speaker 6: but they don't have a second round pick, and I
10:02
Speaker 6: don't know they're willing to give up more draft capital
10:04
Speaker 6: to go up and get Shador. And we'll find out
10:06
Speaker 6: what happens with Aaron Rodgers. So I think everyone in
10:10
Speaker 6: the league that has interested in those two quarterbacks is
10:12
Speaker 6: looking in saying A twenty one. We've got to get
10:14
Speaker 6: ahead of that, but we can wait it out, and
10:17
Speaker 6: we don't want to move in the top ten and
10:18
Speaker 6: give away next year's first round pick.
10:20
Speaker 5: So if it's the Giants or the Browns.
10:23
Speaker 6: I think I think somewhere in that ten to twenty
10:25
Speaker 6: range would be the area they would move up. And
10:27
Speaker 6: I went with Atlanta because Atlanta has the second fewest
10:29
Speaker 6: picks in the.
10:30
Speaker 5: Entire draft with five. But we'll see how it all
10:33
Speaker 5: plays out.
10:33
Speaker 6: I could see Shador going somewhere in that ten to
10:36
Speaker 6: twenty range.
10:37
Speaker 5: Team moving up.
10:39
Speaker 6: Starting to feel like it might be the Giants more
10:41
Speaker 6: so but we'll see how that plays out. And then
10:43
Speaker 6: I could see Jackson Dart a team trading up with
10:45
Speaker 6: Minnesota Minnesota only has four picks in the entire draft
10:48
Speaker 6: and trying to get up ahead of Cleveland or the Giants,
10:51
Speaker 6: who ever sitting there thirty three, thirty four, and I
10:54
Speaker 6: think New Orleans could be that team to do it.
10:56
Speaker 2: A So I have two quick file ups.
10:58
Speaker 1: I know Simon wants to jump in with a very
11:00
Speaker 1: important quarterback question Number one. I just want to clarify
11:04
Speaker 1: either I misheard you or you just said you don't
11:06
Speaker 1: think any quarterbacks will go in the top nine.
11:10
Speaker 5: No, no, no, no, no, okay, I mispoke.
11:13
Speaker 6: If I said that camboard's going number one, you can
11:15
Speaker 6: you can write that down.
11:16
Speaker 5: Got its sharpie? Yes, So I've meant the other any
11:19
Speaker 5: of the other quarterbacks, got it? Yeah?
11:21
Speaker 2: Number two?
11:22
Speaker 1: If you're the Browns and you've got the second pick.
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Speaker 1: We had this conversation Simon and I the other day
11:27
Speaker 1: with one of our.
11:28
Speaker 2: Guests, why wouldn't.
11:30
Speaker 1: You go for Shador Sanders there? If what you need
11:34
Speaker 1: the most is a quarterback and Travis Hunter, you could
11:38
Speaker 1: be reaching for a cornerback at number two or reaching
11:43
Speaker 1: for a guy who is a dynamic athlete but maybe
11:46
Speaker 1: not a brilliant receiver. Yet at number two.
11:51
Speaker 6: Travis Hunter is brilliant Okay, at wide receiver and at cornerback.
11:55
Speaker 5: You can't pass on that. I actually I looked this
11:57
Speaker 5: up this Morning'm pulling up my phone.
12:00
Speaker 6: I've heard a lot of people say with the Giants
12:02
Speaker 6: and the Browns, you know the possibility of like the
12:05
Speaker 6: cake and eat it too scenario like Nick Cassario did
12:08
Speaker 6: recently where he took CJ at two and moved up
12:12
Speaker 6: to get Will Anderson. Different circumstances. In my opinion, I
12:17
Speaker 6: think this scenario could play out more like we've seen
12:20
Speaker 6: in the past. Lamar Jackson would be like the glass
12:23
Speaker 6: half full scenario where the Browns took their tight end
12:27
Speaker 6: early in the first round, thought the night was over.
12:29
Speaker 5: All of a sudden, Lamar is sitting there.
12:30
Speaker 6: They get an opportunity, they traded into thirty two, and
12:32
Speaker 6: they take Lamar Jackson there. But I want to remind people,
12:35
Speaker 6: and this is what I looked up. This is why
12:37
Speaker 6: I'm looking down at my phone here.
12:38
Speaker 2: Okay, good research.
12:40
Speaker 6: Johnny Manzell Browns took him at twenty At twenty two,
12:44
Speaker 6: overall in twenty fourteen after they took Justin Gilbert at eight.
12:49
Speaker 6: Brandon Weedon the Browns are three.
12:51
Speaker 5: The four examples here.
12:52
Speaker 6: Brandon Weedon also at twenty two in twenty twelve after
12:55
Speaker 6: they took Trent Richardson at number three, Brady Quinn also
12:59
Speaker 6: at number twenty two, two for the Browns in two
13:01
Speaker 6: thousand and seven after they took Joe Thomas at three,
13:04
Speaker 6: the Ravens Kyle Boehler at nineteen in two thousand and
13:08
Speaker 6: three after they took Terrell Suggs. So I say all that,
13:12
Speaker 6: if you don't have a grade that's equivalent to one
13:14
Speaker 6: of those picks you have to take, you have to take.
13:18
Speaker 5: A These are premium positions.
13:20
Speaker 6: Corner wide receiver. He could solve problems on both sides
13:23
Speaker 6: of the ball and be an instant impact player on
13:25
Speaker 6: the offensive side. Travis Hunter could be for the Browns.
13:27
Speaker 6: That's what they expect. Abdul Carter best pass rusher, premium position,
13:31
Speaker 6: premium pick at number three. And then yeah, you try
13:35
Speaker 6: to move back up and go get your guy, but
13:37
Speaker 6: history tells us more often than not when you don't
13:40
Speaker 6: have the grade where you're like, absolutely, we're picking I
13:43
Speaker 6: mean they have massive needs for the future of these organizations.
13:45
Speaker 6: If they loved Shador Sanders enough, this would.
13:49
Speaker 5: Be a moot point. The information would be leaking out everywhere.
13:53
Speaker 5: They don't.
13:54
Speaker 6: So you don't reach for a quarterback and pass up
13:58
Speaker 6: on a future Joe Thomas or Terrell sucks.
14:02
Speaker 2: You've sufficiently put me in my place. Go ahead, some.
14:06
Speaker 3: Just really quick.
14:07
Speaker 4: I would love to know the view though on Travis
14:09
Speaker 4: Hunter of what is what is his ceiling? So like
14:13
Speaker 4: in your mind you're taking him here at number two,
14:15
Speaker 4: you need him to be what a top twenty five receiver,
14:18
Speaker 4: a top twenty five corner because people like me, who
14:21
Speaker 4: are just huge NFL fans, I just don't.
14:23
Speaker 5: Know how it works.
14:24
Speaker 4: Like I'm trying to wrap my head around him going
14:26
Speaker 4: up against Kyle Hamilton, getting knocked out, getting back up,
14:30
Speaker 4: and then going out there and trying to.
14:31
Speaker 3: Cover receiver in a couple of plays where it's just.
14:33
Speaker 4: Like if he goes to the AFC North, he doesn't
14:37
Speaker 4: survive a season where to me, they have Miles Garrett
14:41
Speaker 4: and they could get Carter.
14:42
Speaker 5: Why'd you just do it?
14:43
Speaker 4: You're in a division Joe Burrow, This feels like such
14:46
Speaker 4: a Browns pick taking Travis Hunter here, and it's like,
14:50
Speaker 4: you know, we all get sucked into the moment.
14:52
Speaker 5: I get it.
14:53
Speaker 4: But he's a big twelve player, wide receiver and cornerback,
14:55
Speaker 4: and now he's gonna be the number two pick. I
14:57
Speaker 4: would love to hear your view, one of the Browns.
14:59
Speaker 4: Why not just take car order, play it safe. They're
15:01
Speaker 4: going for a really like we say, a unicorn. What
15:05
Speaker 4: is what? What do you think he needs to do
15:07
Speaker 4: to prove to be a number two pick? What is
15:08
Speaker 4: his upside? Wide receiver and cornerback?
15:11
Speaker 5: What if I told.
15:12
Speaker 6: You you're you're gonna be able and the number two
15:14
Speaker 6: pick in this draft to draft show Hey Atani?
15:19
Speaker 5: Okay, but my point is.
15:21
Speaker 4: This, like show Hey is a freak genetically, This kid
15:23
Speaker 4: is a freak. I have seen the date, but a
15:25
Speaker 4: freak genetically too.
15:26
Speaker 5: Yeah, I agree, I listen.
15:29
Speaker 6: I only say that for Devil's advocate, right, because because
15:32
Speaker 6: these are the conversations that are going on, it's not
15:34
Speaker 6: a stamina thing like we can erase that. Because the
15:37
Speaker 6: two questions of playing both sides in the NFL, which
15:40
Speaker 6: has never been done before. I don't want to hear
15:41
Speaker 6: their Champ Bailey stuff. I don't want to hear the
15:43
Speaker 6: Charles Woods and stuff. They had like a combined six
15:45
Speaker 6: or seven catches in there.
15:47
Speaker 3: Howard's been thrown out.
15:48
Speaker 5: There doesn't work.
15:51
Speaker 6: Dion Prime coach Prime was was the closest thing too,
15:54
Speaker 6: and he still only had like sixty career catches in
15:57
Speaker 6: that long NFL career. Yes, the return game, No one's
16:00
Speaker 6: done this. The durability part, I'm with you. It becomes
16:05
Speaker 6: a load management thing now talking to coaches and talking
16:07
Speaker 6: to people in the league. Early on in the process,
16:10
Speaker 6: the simple thinking was, like, there's ten other guys on
16:12
Speaker 6: the defensive side you got to communicate with, like if
16:15
Speaker 6: we're playing Cover one or Cover two, or Cover three
16:17
Speaker 6: or quarters or Cover six, Like, we can't have this
16:21
Speaker 6: guy only come into like half the meetings and not
16:23
Speaker 6: understanding what we're trying to do conceptually.
16:25
Speaker 5: And I get that part.
16:27
Speaker 6: But then as we've gotten closer to the draft, and
16:30
Speaker 6: I think as general managers have gotten involved in offensive
16:32
Speaker 6: coaches have gotten involved, like, ye, what are you gonna do.
16:34
Speaker 6: You're gonna draft this guy and you're not gonna give
16:36
Speaker 6: give him to me as a full time offensive player.
16:39
Speaker 6: You're not gonna allow him to be a weapon he's
16:40
Speaker 6: got the best ball skills of a receiver I I
16:42
Speaker 6: can think of in the last decade. And that's when
16:45
Speaker 6: no one talks about like it. It starts with he's
16:47
Speaker 6: gonna catch everything in his area, and then the after
16:50
Speaker 6: the catch stuff and the explosiveness.
16:52
Speaker 3: So people up into Chad Johnson. Do you like that
16:55
Speaker 3: comp I see Garrett.
16:57
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't mind it. Garrett Wilson, I see a
16:59
Speaker 5: lot of too. You think about Garrett.
17:01
Speaker 6: I don't want to say it just prop but like
17:02
Speaker 6: when things were going well just just two years ago,
17:05
Speaker 6: like Garrett Wilson was one of the stars in the NFL.
17:07
Speaker 5: I think that's what he can be on offense.
17:10
Speaker 6: Now, how do you how do you then overcome the
17:13
Speaker 6: Maybe he's not in every meeting, but maybe we just
17:15
Speaker 6: do things differently in the league. Maybe he can be
17:17
Speaker 6: in both meetings. Maybe we figure out the schedule where
17:19
Speaker 6: he can do both. Maybe we figure out how to
17:21
Speaker 6: not flood him and we can use him in sub
17:23
Speaker 6: packages and red zone and and yes, he's.
17:26
Speaker 5: Not gonna be your every downlead.
17:27
Speaker 6: He's not gonna be like Christian Gonzalez was with the Patriots,
17:29
Speaker 6: step in shut down quarterall. But maybe he can provide that, Like,
17:34
Speaker 6: it took the Jets two picks to get Garrett Wilson
17:38
Speaker 6: and saw Yeah Nanke, So it took two picks, you're
17:43
Speaker 6: not gonna get quite that, But could you imagine with
17:45
Speaker 6: one pick to get somewhere close to that kind of
17:47
Speaker 6: impact that they had for the first year rookies for
17:50
Speaker 6: the Jets.
17:50
Speaker 3: You're in the No, it's a done deal. Travis Hunter
17:52
Speaker 3: at too.
17:53
Speaker 5: I don't want to say it's a done deal because in.
17:55
Speaker 3: The oldest show, people can bet on this. So either right,
17:57
Speaker 3: I understand that it's a good number.
18:01
Speaker 6: Yeah, I get that, but I would I wouldn't do
18:03
Speaker 6: anything but bet on Travis Hunter the Okay, the only
18:07
Speaker 6: reason for reservation is the Browns, like Andrew Berry's notorious
18:11
Speaker 6: in circles for misleading people.
18:13
Speaker 5: So like, there's plenty of other bets.
18:16
Speaker 6: I've looked, I've been on fan duel, I've been running,
18:18
Speaker 6: you know, I'm looking around. My friends are calling and texting,
18:20
Speaker 6: and there's plenty of other bets where the odds are better.
18:23
Speaker 6: But if you're just looking like you feel really good
18:26
Speaker 6: about getting the money, I would take that. I would
18:27
Speaker 6: take Carter at what's Carter like minus three hundred now.
18:31
Speaker 5: I said last week, I was like taking it.
18:32
Speaker 6: It's not gonna get better than minus two hundred for
18:34
Speaker 6: number three with the Giants.
18:36
Speaker 5: I still would take that there.
18:37
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm just hoping the owner of Cleveland talks to
18:39
Speaker 4: another homeless guy in the way of the stadium before
18:42
Speaker 4: the draft and make some draft pick that way. This
18:44
Speaker 4: draft is really fun because of the quarterback position, like
18:47
Speaker 4: as this is a betting show right now. The over
18:50
Speaker 4: two and a half quarterbacks in the first round. It's
18:51
Speaker 4: up to minus you know, four fifty, right, so people
18:54
Speaker 4: are hammering that because you know, mil Row now getting
18:57
Speaker 4: a ton of steam.
18:58
Speaker 3: People are really talking about him.
18:59
Speaker 4: That team, you know, the Browns, if they do take
19:02
Speaker 4: like you said, Travis Hunter, they're a team that picked
19:04
Speaker 4: thirty three then moving back in the first round.
19:06
Speaker 3: Taking this kid makes sense. You know we've all heard
19:08
Speaker 3: Dart with the Saints.
19:10
Speaker 5: I can't imagine.
19:10
Speaker 6: I'm gonna cut you off. I'm sorry, but I love
19:12
Speaker 6: this stuff. Let's just bounce back. I've got a bunch
19:14
Speaker 6: of things on my mind because I was looking through
19:16
Speaker 6: FanDuel yesterday, so I get it.
19:19
Speaker 5: It's now.
19:19
Speaker 6: It was like minus three something yesterday, so you're saying
19:21
Speaker 6: it's mine four fifty.
19:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's moving.
19:23
Speaker 6: So if you have the money in the bank, just
19:26
Speaker 6: go put it down, because I can't see a scenario
19:29
Speaker 6: in which three don't come off the board. Now, if
19:31
Speaker 6: you told me it was the over under was three
19:33
Speaker 6: and a half, I'd lean under.
19:37
Speaker 5: Uh.
19:37
Speaker 6: But I think the Saints sitting there at forty, even
19:41
Speaker 6: if even if you get to pick like twenty three,
19:43
Speaker 6: twenty four, twenty five, and all of a sudden there's
19:46
Speaker 6: only two quarterbacks off of the Bots, say shau d
19:48
Speaker 6: Door fell to twenty one or team moved up to
19:50
Speaker 6: get because of the concept that the Browns are at
19:54
Speaker 6: thirty three. And this is why I've never seen I've
19:57
Speaker 6: been doing this twenty five years. I have never seen
20:00
Speaker 6: four quarterbacks travel the country or organizations fire up their
20:03
Speaker 6: private jet and travel all around the country to work
20:06
Speaker 6: out like the are the arms are tired of Jackson Dart,
20:10
Speaker 6: Shador Sanders, Jalen Milroe, and Tyler Schuck so and the
20:14
Speaker 6: reason they're tired is these teams are trying to figure
20:17
Speaker 6: out picking it thirty three, thirty four, the Saints at forty.
20:21
Speaker 5: Then you got to remember, too, there's the Raiders sitting
20:23
Speaker 5: there early in the.
20:24
Speaker 6: Second round, the Jets may have their eye on a
20:26
Speaker 6: Jackson Dart, So like there's enough concern that, Okay, we
20:31
Speaker 6: just flew all around the country. We just worked out
20:33
Speaker 6: these guys. The last thing we did in the scouting
20:35
Speaker 6: process is with these quarterbacks. I love this guy. So
20:38
Speaker 6: you're gonna just sit there and hope that that guy's
20:41
Speaker 6: waiting for you overnight coming into Friday. I just don't
20:45
Speaker 6: see it happening. So yeah, it's gonna cost you a
20:47
Speaker 6: lot of money, but I can't imagine a scenario in
20:49
Speaker 6: which we don't have three quarterbacks in the first round.
20:52
Speaker 1: How often do you, as an expert who goes to
20:56
Speaker 1: a lot of the events where there are private workouts
20:58
Speaker 1: and group workouts and you know, senior days, et cetera,
21:01
Speaker 1: et cetera, but also watch it as any imenordtant amount
21:05
Speaker 1: of film on all these guys, do you change your
21:09
Speaker 1: mind after the season, after having seen all this tape
21:13
Speaker 1: and all this development, Because my feeling is that there
21:18
Speaker 1: is a little bit of forgetting what people have seen
21:23
Speaker 1: on tape and falling in love with what they see
21:26
Speaker 1: in real life in these private workouts that are not
21:28
Speaker 1: the same as a game, and it becomes a little
21:30
Speaker 1: bit of recency bias.
21:32
Speaker 5: Yeah, there's just so much nuance with the quarterback position.
21:35
Speaker 6: I think people have gotten to see the combine workouts
21:38
Speaker 6: and the pro day workouts, and they're staged for them.
21:43
Speaker 5: I mean, the combine isn't stage, but it's the same throws.
21:46
Speaker 6: It's you know, trying to time it out with these
21:48
Speaker 6: receivers so you're not trying to throw anticipation.
21:51
Speaker 5: The difference with this is you bring.
21:54
Speaker 6: Your offensive coordinator, you bring your quarterback coach.
21:57
Speaker 5: You also bring your owner.
21:58
Speaker 6: You have dinner within the night for And yes, there's
22:01
Speaker 6: part of it where sometimes too much emphasis can go.
22:04
Speaker 5: Like I just love this guy, I want to work
22:07
Speaker 5: with him the human being.
22:09
Speaker 6: I get that part, But there's also like the install
22:12
Speaker 6: process and testing their mind and how like. So much
22:15
Speaker 6: of this position, which is different than most than all
22:18
Speaker 6: the other positions in terms of the level that you
22:20
Speaker 6: need to have, is the recall thinking on the fly,
22:23
Speaker 6: how quickly you process. And it's not perfect, you know,
22:26
Speaker 6: it's not apples to apples to a game situation, but
22:29
Speaker 6: you can test them and I think that's that's the part.
22:31
Speaker 6: When you're doing these private workouts, it's just as much
22:34
Speaker 6: about the brain and the timing of the operation as
22:37
Speaker 6: it is He's got a strong arm, stronger than I
22:40
Speaker 6: thought on tape. You know, like that part gets overrated
22:43
Speaker 6: because it's what the public gets to see versus what
22:45
Speaker 6: the public does. I've never been to a private workout,
22:48
Speaker 6: you know, like scouts haven't been to the private workouts.
22:51
Speaker 6: It's the it's the GM, the head coach, the offensive coordinator,
22:55
Speaker 6: and they're very very very much tailored to what they're
22:57
Speaker 6: looking for.
23:00
Speaker 1: In your opinion right now, who is the safest draft
23:05
Speaker 1: prospect this year?
23:09
Speaker 5: That word is tough.
23:11
Speaker 2: I mean highest floor. How about highest floor, highest.
23:14
Speaker 5: Floors, Tyler Warren. There's there's no real durability concern.
23:20
Speaker 6: You can say, here's the thing, if you can wash
23:22
Speaker 6: out if he stays healthy, because you can say that
23:25
Speaker 6: for every prospect, but there's greater.
23:26
Speaker 5: Risk with certain ones than we all know.
23:30
Speaker 6: I don't know that his ceiling is necessarily as high
23:32
Speaker 6: as some of the other guys that will get drafted
23:34
Speaker 6: right near him or after him. I think Colston Lovelin
23:37
Speaker 6: has a chance to maybe have a bigger yards per catch,
23:40
Speaker 6: and and I don't want to say, catch more passes,
23:43
Speaker 6: but but yeah, but more explosive and and create bigger
23:47
Speaker 6: opportunities in the past game because he's a little bit
23:51
Speaker 6: more sudden, twitchy, best route runner of the tight ends.
23:54
Speaker 6: But I just don't see a scenario in which Warren,
23:57
Speaker 6: a healthy Warren, fails like I like for downs. Man,
24:01
Speaker 6: this guy's a first down machine, whether it's you know,
24:04
Speaker 6: eight nine yards and just turn around and grind out
24:07
Speaker 6: the last two or three, or if it's a three
24:10
Speaker 6: yard little screen to him or just a quick, you know,
24:13
Speaker 6: quick hook.
24:14
Speaker 5: To him and then he just he's able to run
24:16
Speaker 5: after the catch.
24:17
Speaker 6: I'm not saying he's Gronk, but he's like the closest
24:19
Speaker 6: thing we've seen in a while since Gronk.
24:21
Speaker 5: I think he's gonna be that kind of player.
24:23
Speaker 4: Now, someone that's followed you from a long time, just
24:26
Speaker 4: because like I bet big money in the draft. Always
24:28
Speaker 4: have always like to find edges, and you do move
24:31
Speaker 4: markets because people trust your opinion. I mean, you know,
24:35
Speaker 4: you know you've been around a long time. You did
24:38
Speaker 4: say today briefly, GENTI Patriots. I would love to know
24:43
Speaker 4: more about that, because that moved the market, like you
24:46
Speaker 4: don't even realize that it moved the market, that people
24:48
Speaker 4: are like, oh my god, judge me and top five pick,
24:51
Speaker 4: and if that does happen, that's crazy about Again, you know,
24:54
Speaker 4: it's probably not gonna happen. It's more likely they're gonna
24:56
Speaker 4: go Will Campbell or who knows the draft falls. But
24:58
Speaker 4: I just thought that was interesting that. But you know,
25:00
Speaker 4: this is a guy that started out at outside top ten.
25:04
Speaker 4: Now everyone's getting in love to the Raiders. Now you
25:06
Speaker 4: mentioned the Patriots. Is that is that something that's like
25:09
Speaker 4: real or is that just they're enamored with the athlete
25:11
Speaker 4: that he is.
25:13
Speaker 6: Here's the interesting part of the conversations I have. I'm
25:16
Speaker 6: never calling Mike Vrabel and like, Michael, you're taking right.
25:20
Speaker 6: So it's always another GM or a personnel director who
25:25
Speaker 6: I talked because everyone's talking to everyone now in league circles,
25:30
Speaker 6: and the conversation is never, never with anyone, even like
25:34
Speaker 6: Joe Douglas I played college football with, We've family friends,
25:37
Speaker 6: all that, Like never once one time ever, never would
25:41
Speaker 6: It's like absurd, be like Joe, who are you taking
25:44
Speaker 6: with that pick?
25:44
Speaker 5: You know, like it's just not how this thing goes.
25:46
Speaker 6: So it's a lot of information, like hey, someone who's
25:51
Speaker 6: a little lower ranking maybe say like, hey, there is
25:53
Speaker 6: there is discussion in the building, like gent than genty
25:57
Speaker 6: still on and sometimes those people aren't in that final
26:00
Speaker 6: like two or three human beings that are in the room.
26:02
Speaker 6: There's a board that's set for the whole staff, right,
26:05
Speaker 6: and then there's the real board, and that's most organizations.
26:09
Speaker 6: So it's sometimes a little leak will come out like
26:14
Speaker 6: don't close the book, Like I get the call it
26:16
Speaker 6: don't close the book on Shador. I'm not sure what's
26:18
Speaker 6: going on, but they're still having discussions and Giants' facilities
26:22
Speaker 6: something about Shador. Don't know if that means later or
26:25
Speaker 6: so that's what's going on now. The Jind thing's interesting
26:31
Speaker 6: because I haven't talked to a person in the league
26:34
Speaker 6: that doesn't have him in the top five in terms
26:37
Speaker 6: of grades, and the vast majority of people I talk
26:39
Speaker 6: to have him at three. They think he's the third
26:42
Speaker 6: best player in this draft, just behind Hunter and Carter okay,
26:47
Speaker 6: but ahead of Mason Graham and Tyler Warren and Jalen
26:51
Speaker 6: Walker and those guys.
26:52
Speaker 5: Okay. So I can see how as.
26:55
Speaker 6: You get closer you're like, I don't know, he's so special,
26:59
Speaker 6: he's got a chance to be diff But then I
27:00
Speaker 6: look at the Patriots situation.
27:01
Speaker 5: I'm like, yes, Saquon is awesome with the Eagles, but
27:05
Speaker 5: what was he with the Giants when they couldn't you
27:07
Speaker 5: know what I mean.
27:08
Speaker 6: So I think that's a lot of the discussion going on.
27:11
Speaker 6: I've just heard a couple nuggets that make me I'm
27:14
Speaker 6: not to the point, Like I got Felika calling me
27:16
Speaker 6: the bear all the time and we're going back and forth,
27:18
Speaker 6: and Stanford Steve, my longtime buddy, all by degenerate friends
27:22
Speaker 6: up here in Boston, Like I spend more time on
27:25
Speaker 6: this stuff than I should, but I love it because
27:27
Speaker 6: it's fun and like trying to figure out all the
27:29
Speaker 6: maize and the puzzle.
27:31
Speaker 5: But it's one of those like if the line's ridiculous.
27:35
Speaker 6: Maybe you put a dollar on it, Like maybe you
27:38
Speaker 6: put a couple dollars versus putting one hundred dollars or
27:41
Speaker 6: a thousand, you know, but it's worth like who knows.
27:43
Speaker 6: Maybe I just am getting the sense whether it's New
27:47
Speaker 6: England at four, Jaguars at five, there's a little bit
27:50
Speaker 6: more buzz than I expected to hear at this point
27:52
Speaker 6: in time.
27:53
Speaker 5: I'll say this.
27:54
Speaker 6: I wish I'm totally changing course here, but I was
27:58
Speaker 6: shocked yesterday when I looked. And again I'm not saying
28:00
Speaker 6: it's like a guarantee or I have solid information and
28:04
Speaker 6: go with this race in now before the line changes,
28:07
Speaker 6: but I was.
28:08
Speaker 5: Really interested to see Warren is plus seven hundred to
28:11
Speaker 5: the Jets, like you might wanna yeah, right there, I
28:16
Speaker 5: see you at the pen.
28:18
Speaker 2: You might want to write that one, by the way,
28:20
Speaker 2: not a pen. He's betting it at yeah.
28:23
Speaker 3: Down a plus three hundred.
28:25
Speaker 4: I tweeted that out yet last night and the gent
28:28
Speaker 4: d I bet it when you when you talked about
28:30
Speaker 4: he was twenty to one. It's down to sixteen to
28:31
Speaker 4: one him to go to the Patriots. So sometimes I'm
28:34
Speaker 4: telling you move markets.
28:35
Speaker 3: It's crazy.
28:36
Speaker 6: It's the only thing in the It's the only time
28:38
Speaker 6: in anything in my entire life, including like day to
28:40
Speaker 6: day chores, that anyone listens to me.
28:42
Speaker 5: So we'll go with it.
28:45
Speaker 2: It's so funny, Todd.
28:46
Speaker 1: We had Felikhan a few weeks ago, we had Stanford
28:49
Speaker 1: on a few weeks before that. Everybody's talking to the
28:53
Speaker 1: same fucking people. We're all talking and texting with each other,
28:56
Speaker 1: it's it's freaking hilarious.
28:58
Speaker 6: I do want owes me, Felika owes me like a
29:02
Speaker 6: vacation at some point after the last three years.
29:04
Speaker 5: I'm just going to say that.
29:06
Speaker 1: Well, I'll let him know. I'm going to text him
29:07
Speaker 1: at his clip right now. Yeah, please he can, you know,
29:10
Speaker 1: put it in his todd makeshae fund.
29:11
Speaker 5: How do you think he's the best? I mean I
29:13
Speaker 5: owe him more than he owes me, let's put it
29:15
Speaker 5: that way.
29:15
Speaker 1: But yeah, how do you figure out all these smoke
29:19
Speaker 1: signals from all these gms? And they know not only
29:21
Speaker 1: that you're calling and getting information from them, but they
29:24
Speaker 1: will potentially be trying to use you as a conduit
29:28
Speaker 1: to get information, but also they might say something to
29:32
Speaker 1: you that you could be sharing with somebody else in
29:34
Speaker 1: a sort of informal way. How do you know what
29:39
Speaker 1: to use for real in a mock versus what's someone
29:43
Speaker 1: trying to.
29:43
Speaker 5: Throw you off?
29:44
Speaker 2: The scent.
29:46
Speaker 6: You get to I've been burned before, but I haven't
29:48
Speaker 6: been totally burned in a while. And I was burned
29:53
Speaker 6: before because I was young and still developing relationships. And
29:56
Speaker 6: it's like any business, you learn who you can trust,
29:59
Speaker 6: and you learn who you and you develop relationships, and again,
30:02
Speaker 6: no one say we're definitely even if even when I've
30:05
Speaker 6: had conversations when it's kind of narrowed down and it's
30:09
Speaker 6: never directly.
30:10
Speaker 5: Said, we're either gonna take this guy or this guy.
30:12
Speaker 6: But you when you get down with forty five minutes
30:15
Speaker 6: on the phone with the decision maker of an organization,
30:19
Speaker 6: you get a sense just as you're going through boards
30:21
Speaker 6: and having discussions. And honestly, it's never it's rarely the answer.
30:26
Speaker 6: It's usually the question that's asked of me that tips
30:30
Speaker 6: me off. Oh they're they're thinking this there. Why is
30:33
Speaker 6: he asking me about this player? Why is he asking
30:35
Speaker 6: me about this team that picks three spots ahead?
30:37
Speaker 5: You know what I mean.
30:38
Speaker 6: That's where you just get a sense, and it's like
30:40
Speaker 6: this little dance that goes on.
30:43
Speaker 5: But here's the other part too.
30:47
Speaker 6: Gms don't know they know who they want, they know
30:50
Speaker 6: how their board is, but they don't know what's coming
30:52
Speaker 6: to them, you know. So there's no I won one time.
30:55
Speaker 6: I think with Barstool, I went on right and I'll
30:59
Speaker 6: never forget I did this. We're going back and forth
31:01
Speaker 6: and then they were talking, they were just you know,
31:03
Speaker 6: being it was a parton might take us and and
31:06
Speaker 6: they're like, let's do a contest where if anyone could
31:09
Speaker 6: ever what would you put up if someone could get
31:11
Speaker 6: a perfect mock draft. I said, I'll put up a
31:13
Speaker 6: million dollars right now, I'll put up a million dollars
31:15
Speaker 6: right like, it is literally impossible that if you if
31:19
Speaker 6: you got all thirty two gms in a room and
31:21
Speaker 6: they did a mock draft and they shared information, it
31:23
Speaker 6: still would be different. And so then the next day
31:27
Speaker 6: I go into a production meeting before the draft and
31:29
Speaker 6: I've got one of my one of the executives the ESPN.
31:32
Speaker 6: You're always causing problems like now we've got now we've
31:36
Speaker 6: got we've got legal contacting me, like do we need
31:39
Speaker 6: to get to take out insurans.
31:41
Speaker 5: I'm like no, stop stop.
31:43
Speaker 6: It was a joke, But my point was there's no
31:45
Speaker 6: way to know definitively because one trade, one team picks
31:49
Speaker 6: something that you don't expect, and it throws everything off.
31:52
Speaker 1: Uh.
31:52
Speaker 6: But I do like the numbers where it's like how
31:54
Speaker 6: many of these position in the first round, or if
31:58
Speaker 6: you're looking at a team and the numbers ridiculous, like
32:00
Speaker 6: even the Bears, I think it was like plus three
32:03
Speaker 6: thirty yesterday for a tight end. I think those two
32:06
Speaker 6: tight ends could go Jets, Bears, Warren Lovelin in that order.
32:11
Speaker 5: I really do. And I think you could get pretty
32:13
Speaker 5: good money on that.
32:14
Speaker 2: All right, before we let you get out of here, Simon,
32:16
Speaker 2: what's the last question?
32:17
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I gotta get my bias, and as an
32:20
Speaker 4: Eagles fan locally, I'm hearing from guys I respect that
32:23
Speaker 4: Eagles are basically dead set on a tight end and
32:27
Speaker 4: the fact of Dallas got her, you know, last year
32:29
Speaker 4: of his deal.
32:30
Speaker 3: He's above the age of thirty. Guy has hard tough
32:33
Speaker 3: time stay in the field.
32:34
Speaker 4: Is it a guarantee that they trade down and take
32:36
Speaker 4: one or trade up again these tight ends? Do you
32:38
Speaker 4: think that this is a deep enough class that.
32:40
Speaker 3: You wouldn't touch that market?
32:42
Speaker 4: Just you don't know what how he was going to
32:43
Speaker 4: do at that end of the pick, So it's not
32:45
Speaker 4: worth betting on them taking a tight end there.
32:47
Speaker 6: Yeah, I said Mason Taylor to them a few weeks ago,
32:51
Speaker 6: and it's just kind of like a keep an eye
32:53
Speaker 6: on this, and I feel like that's starting to grow,
32:58
Speaker 6: that that concept, and I do think it's something.
33:00
Speaker 5: How we would do.
33:01
Speaker 6: I don't see him moving up for Mason Taylor. If
33:05
Speaker 6: one of these defensive linemen start to fall, and I
33:08
Speaker 6: mean you've got seven.
33:09
Speaker 5: Guys at the edge position.
33:11
Speaker 6: If one of them starts to fall, you've got like
33:12
Speaker 6: five guys at the interior defensive line. I could see
33:16
Speaker 6: maybe up two three spots something like that. I think
33:19
Speaker 6: he's more likely to move back out of that spot
33:22
Speaker 6: if he's looking at it, he's like, wait, there's there's
33:24
Speaker 6: still a quarterback or two. I've got the I've got
33:27
Speaker 6: the Browns, the Giants sitting there. There's there's two interior
33:33
Speaker 6: defensive linemen and Mason Taylor. I can probably move back three, four,
33:37
Speaker 6: five spots and still get that same player and pick
33:40
Speaker 6: up a third round or what a third fourth rounder.
33:43
Speaker 6: So I can envision that I do like Mason Taylor there.
33:47
Speaker 6: It makes a lot of sense. It's a highw wee guy.
33:50
Speaker 6: But they also you know, you got Malachi Starks and
33:54
Speaker 6: nick Emon Worrie. Safety is a position they could address
33:57
Speaker 6: interior and the addresser we know, no, even if they
33:59
Speaker 6: don't have a need, they could go there.
34:01
Speaker 5: And this class is loaded.
34:02
Speaker 6: So once again, even if you just stay home at
34:05
Speaker 6: thirty two, which how he's pretty.
34:07
Speaker 5: Incapable of doing if anyone who knows him.
34:10
Speaker 6: But if they stay home at that spot, someone's going
34:12
Speaker 6: to fall to them there, and so that'll.
34:14
Speaker 5: Be interesting to say.
34:16
Speaker 2: All right, Tom mcshaye.
34:17
Speaker 1: If there were a Hall of Fame for NFL Draft analysts,
34:22
Speaker 1: Tom McShay would be in the inaugural class.
34:26
Speaker 2: That is why you're too much.
34:27
Speaker 1: We must subscribe to his newsletter, The micshaye Report. Catch
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Speaker 1: the NFL Draft YouTube live stream on Thursday next Thursday
34:36
Speaker 1: on The McShay Show. Todd, excellent work as always, Good.
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Speaker 5: Luck, This is fun guys.
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Speaker 6: We'll have to revisit and hopefully hopefully we made some
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Speaker 6: money and didn't lose anyone money today.
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Speaker 1: Well listen, Felika's got to buy a new house, so
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Speaker 1: let's hope it works out for it.
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Speaker 5: Take care, guys, Thank you, all right, thanks Todd.
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Speaker 1: with our next episode of The Favorites on the Action Network.
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Speaker 1: You two page Thursday, one thirty pm Eastern talking NFL
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