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Is this humiliation for Hezbollah? · The Front

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  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, November twenty seventh. Don't let Donald Trump mess
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  Speaker 1: it up. That's the message from Australia's Ambassador to Australia.
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  Speaker 1: about five point five million dollars after receiving fresh legal
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  Speaker 1: advice that the penalties weren't valid. Those stories alive right
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  Speaker 1: now at the Australian dot Com dot a U. A
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  Speaker 1: truce between Israel and Hezbollah. What does that mean for
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  Speaker 1: the Middle East and the world Today? I speak to
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  Speaker 1: our chief international correspondent, Cameron Stewart for the new lay
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  Speaker 1: of the land. Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent.
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  Speaker 1: I'm curious to know what we think this truth or
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  Speaker 1: ceasefire might look like. And what's the difference between a
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  Speaker 1: truce and just a defeat.
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  Speaker 2: Well, that's a good question because at the moment it
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  Speaker 2: looks like the very last details are being nutted out,
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  Speaker 2: so we don't know all the details of this imminent agreement.
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  Speaker 2: It does look like it will go through, but it's
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  Speaker 2: the Middle East who knows. What the agreement will basically
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  Speaker 2: do is it will be an agreement for Hesbala to
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  Speaker 2: move all of its forces north of a place called
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  Speaker 2: the Latani River, which goes through the middle of Lebanon,
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  Speaker 2: in other words, out of southern Lebanon and away from Israel.
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  Speaker 2: And conversely, Israel will move its troops slowly out of
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  Speaker 2: southern Lebanon. Of course, they invaded southern Lebanon in September,
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  Speaker 2: and obviously both sides will stop lobbing missiles at each other.
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  Speaker 2: So that is the bare bones of the agreement that
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  Speaker 2: they're looking at. But your first question there, Claire, is
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  Speaker 2: very relevant, what is the difference, because honestly, this is
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  Speaker 2: a defeat for Hesbela no matter how they want to
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  Speaker 2: paint it. This is a deal they never wanted to do,
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  Speaker 2: and it's one that they're forced upon themselves by misjudging
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  Speaker 2: Israel's intens and capability to hit back at them hard.
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  Speaker 1: Hesbela started firing rockets into Israel very shortly after the
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  Speaker 1: Hamas October seven attacks in southern Israel. So it looked
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  Speaker 1: for a long time as though Israel was going to
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  Speaker 1: be fighting a war on two fronts. It never really
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  Speaker 1: turned into a real war, though. Did it came between
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  Speaker 1: Israel and Hesbelah on the northern border.
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  Speaker 2: No, that's right. Hesbela started what you call a low
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  Speaker 2: level war. I think Claire lobbing missiles and rockets almost
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  Speaker 2: every day, but often they fell fairly harmlessly into northern Israel.
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  Speaker 2: But mind you, they were dangerous enough to occasionally hurt
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  Speaker 2: and kill people, and they were dangerous enough to force
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  Speaker 2: sixty thousand Israelis out of their homes in northern Israel.
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  Speaker 2: But Israel was basically busy in trying to get rid
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  Speaker 2: of Hamas in Gaza. That was the main focus. And
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  Speaker 2: so what Israel did was effectively tolerate around about twelve
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  Speaker 2: months of this low level conflict with Hesbela in the
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  Speaker 2: north because they wanted to get rid of Gaza. They
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  Speaker 2: didn't have the troops to do both, and once the
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  Speaker 2: fighting wound down in Gaza, Hesbelah made a great miscalculation
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  Speaker 2: of continuing their low level war and Israel came back,
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  Speaker 2: of course, with unbelievable force in mid September when the
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  Speaker 2: Mossad sabotaged their walkie talkies in their pages and killed
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  Speaker 2: or maimed thousands of their troops and their commanders. And
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  Speaker 2: that was followed almost immediately by the assassination of the
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  Speaker 2: long time Hesbelo leader Hassan Israela in Beirut and also
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  Speaker 2: some of his successes.
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  Speaker 3: Hamajam around Supreme leader Ayatala Ali Haraminei called on Muslims
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  Speaker 3: on Saturday to stand by the people of Lebanon and
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  Speaker 3: his Lah in confronting quote, the wicked regime of Israel, and.
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  Speaker 2: Then Israel did even more. They piled on with a
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  Speaker 2: very broad based bombing of Hesbella military positions, and then
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  Speaker 2: the troops, Israeli troops when it's a southern lebent on.
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  Speaker 2: So Hezebalah honestly did not know what hit them. And
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  Speaker 2: from this ceasefire deal, it's quite clear that they never
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  Speaker 2: recover from those initial hits, and so they would be
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  Speaker 2: signing this deal absolutely from extreme weakness, not from any
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  Speaker 2: position of strength.
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  Speaker 1: What now for Iran? Cam Iran is a sponsor of Hamas,
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  Speaker 1: it's also a sponsor of Hesbellah, with different goals for
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  Speaker 1: both of those groups, but united in their desire to
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  Speaker 1: wipe Israel off the map? Where does this leave Iran?
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  Speaker 2: This is also a black eye for Iran because Hesbela
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  Speaker 2: is its beloved terror proxy. It adores Hesbela because it
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  Speaker 2: keeps Israel very nervous, and of course Iran wants to
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  Speaker 2: get rid of Israel basically, but Iran as given a
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  Speaker 2: black eye itself with two military exchanges directly involving Israel
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  Speaker 2: this year.
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  Speaker 1: Israel has launched multiple air strikes on Iran in response
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  Speaker 1: to what the Israeli Ministure called months of continuous attacks
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  Speaker 1: from Tehran and its proxies.
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  Speaker 2: And it's quite clear that Iran doesn't have the stomach
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  Speaker 2: at this minute to take on Israel, either directly or indirectly.
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  Speaker 2: And I think the fact that Iran has backed this
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  Speaker 2: cease fire, It's told Hesbela to try and enter a
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  Speaker 2: cease fire, means that it doesn't want to see Hesbela
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  Speaker 2: totally destroyed. It wants to have enough of Hesbela left
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  Speaker 2: in Lebanon so that with a ceasefi I deal they
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  Speaker 2: can slowly rebuild Hesbela to be some sort of force.
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  Speaker 2: So it's, honestly, from Iran's point of view, also a
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  Speaker 2: sign of weakness and a fear that they will lose
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  Speaker 2: their most favored terror proxy in Lebanon.
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  Speaker 1: And what about Lebanon? Can this beautiful country snowy mountains
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  Speaker 1: on one side, beautiful hostline on the other, very similar
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  Speaker 1: in topography to Israel, and has been very similar in
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  Speaker 1: the sense that it's been, at least in part, a
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  Speaker 1: functional democracy in the Middle East, where girls could walk
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  Speaker 1: down the street in bikinis or in burkers, depending on
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  Speaker 1: what they chose, a multi faith society. Now it seems
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  Speaker 1: to be a sort of shattered shell of itself. What
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  Speaker 1: now for Lebanon, Yes.
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  Speaker 2: Your heart just breaks for Lebanon. They used to be
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  Speaker 2: called the Paris of the East. It was a thriving,
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  Speaker 2: wonderful country. It has really really struggled economically through corrupt
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  Speaker 2: governments quite apart from the terror aspect, and of course,
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  Speaker 2: tragically Iran effectively infiltrated it by creating Hazebala, which is
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  Speaker 2: also a political force in the country as well as
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  Speaker 2: a militant force, and so they've got a terror group
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  Speaker 2: there that has brought this misery upon the population. Because
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  Speaker 2: of course a lot of these Israeli attacks on Hesbalo
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  Speaker 2: military sites have knocked down built, have claimed innocent civilians,
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  Speaker 2: innocent Lebanese. So it's a tragedy on multiple fronts for Lebanon.
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  Speaker 2: So I think the piece deal, if it comes through,
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  Speaker 2: is absolutely the best thing for the people.
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  Speaker 1: What about the decision making in Israel about signing this truce,
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  Speaker 1: cam You've written in The Australian that there was pressure
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  Speaker 1: on Benjamin netna Who from some of the right wing
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  Speaker 1: elements of his governing coalition not to do this, to
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  Speaker 1: push for the full elimination of Hesbola. That has been
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  Speaker 1: the strategy in Gaza, the full elimination of Maas. What's
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  Speaker 1: the calculus there for Benjamin nettanie Who.
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  Speaker 2: Well, there's been a debate within the government. Within net
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  Speaker 2: Who's coalition. The government has formally stated the only reason
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  Speaker 2: that wentz and launched the offensive against Hesbola was to
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  Speaker 2: create the safe conditions for the return of the sixty
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  Speaker 2: thousand Israelis who've been displaced from their homes, not to
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  Speaker 2: completely destroy Hesbella as a terrorist outfit. However, the more
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  Speaker 2: right wing elements of Netniaho's cabinet think this is the
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  Speaker 2: perfect moment historically for Israel to do that, to keep
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  Speaker 2: going and going and going after hesbler and effectively destroyed
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  Speaker 2: as a force for the future. It looks as if
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  Speaker 2: Neaho has not taken that advice. He is keener for
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  Speaker 2: at least a sixty day cease far rather than no
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  Speaker 2: cease far at all. I mean, you could argue that
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  Speaker 2: Hesbala has already been crippled for perhaps a decade because
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  Speaker 2: of the leadership losses that they've lost. A lot of
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  Speaker 2: their military arsenal has been smashed by Israel, so I
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  Speaker 2: think you could argue that Hesbala actually has been rendered
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  Speaker 2: impotent for a very long time.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up, the United Nations International Criminal Court issued arrest
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  Speaker 1: warrants for Israeli leadership. So where does that leave Australia.
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  Speaker 1: Like everything else in the Middle East, this story is
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  Speaker 1: moving fast. You can check out all the latest right
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  Speaker 1: now at the Australian dot Com dot a yu and
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  Speaker 1: we'll be back after this break. The International Criminal Court
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  Speaker 1: has issued arrest warrants for Benjamin Nettinier who and for
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  Speaker 1: Israel's former defense minister you are of Galant. Where does
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  Speaker 1: that put Israel's nominal allies can be other Western democracies
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  Speaker 1: of the world, who, to greater or lesser extents, have
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  Speaker 1: stood by Israel since October seven, twenty twenty three.
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  Speaker 2: It puts them in a terribly difficult position because their
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  Speaker 2: court between their stated support for the defense, for Israel's
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  Speaker 2: right to defend itself, and of course the fact that
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  Speaker 2: they're signed up to the International Criminal Court and not
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  Speaker 2: expecting it, I think, to make a judgment like this
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  Speaker 2: against the leader of a democracy, and so their court
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  Speaker 2: between hell and high water in a way, and so
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  Speaker 2: a lot some of them have argued that legally they're
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  Speaker 2: obliged to follow the International Criminal Court's ruling, which is true,
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  Speaker 2: but not all countries have actually done that. Some countries
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  Speaker 2: have actually ignored that ruling when variously to such a
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  Speaker 2: Putin or whoever visit. So it's not an ironclad rule,
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  Speaker 2: but certainly it's put almost all of the Western nations
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  Speaker 2: in a real biden. It's clearly put Australia in a
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  Speaker 2: buying because Penny Wong has only said that we respect
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  Speaker 2: the courts, we aim to follow the court's rulings, et cetera.
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  Speaker 2: But she hasn't clarified whether that would actually mean would
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  Speaker 2: Benjamin data Who be arrested on Australian soil or would
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  Speaker 2: he not? What does that actually mean? So the government
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  Speaker 2: I think is giving noises that suggest they are not
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  Speaker 2: on Israel's side in this discussion, but they're not making
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  Speaker 2: it crystal clear about where they stand.
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  Speaker 1: Does it effectively leave Benjamin Natanya who to remain in
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  Speaker 1: Israel for the rest of his life and not travel
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  Speaker 1: overseas well, it'll.
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  Speaker 2: Be making lots of trips to America Claire because they
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  Speaker 2: don't sign the ICC. It's one of the few places
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  Speaker 2: he can go safely. But yes, you're right, I'm sure
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  Speaker 2: Netna who would not travel anywhere unless he've got a
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  Speaker 2: previous agreement from that government that they wouldn't actually arrest him.
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  Speaker 2: So the places he can't go now includes Britain and
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  Speaker 2: all of Europe, Australia, Canada, I mean, most of the
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  Speaker 2: Western world. So it's a massive blow as far as him,
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  Speaker 2: especially if he remains as Prime Minister to actually conduct
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  Speaker 2: his Prime Ministerial duties abroad.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent. Thanks for
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  Speaker 1: joining us on the front and don't forget to check
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: out all the latest reporting of the conflict in the
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Middle East and the rest of the world news you
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  Speaker 1: need to know right now at the Australian dot com
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  Speaker 1: dot au