2026-07-30 · A Relief Rally, But Flow Disagreed
A sharp relief rally on blowout Microsoft cloud guidance masked a bearish divergence count that actually widened, with the cleanest rotation signature of the week: distribution in financials and real estate against accumulation almost entirely in tech.
The Signal
A relief rebound stacked on a hawkish Fed: the S&P jumped over one and a half percent and the Nasdaq surged more than three, reversing most of yesterday's selloff. Microsoft carried the tape, its biggest one-day jump since 2008 on cloud guidance; Meta fell hard the other way on a cash-flow plunge.
The Noise
The tape looked bid…
The skinny
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