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2026 KENTUCKY DERBY BEST BETS | I'm an Amateur · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chase. Black coffee on the felt man, you look
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: like a mess. Three teen Parlette turned the dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head. Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this man. But don't you go quiet? Don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor. Your name steal means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: on somebody for show.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me?
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice.
• 0:56
  Speaker 4: Now hold on, hold on and me for you.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 5: Now, what's up everybody? It's towed back with you Toadstool Sports.
• 1:31
  Speaker 5: This is gonna be the Kentucky Derby edition of the show.
• 1:36
  Speaker 5: We did pretty well with the Kentucky Derby last year,
• 1:38
  Speaker 5: even though I admit I do not know that much
• 1:40
  Speaker 5: about horse racing. I pretty much only follow it during
• 1:44
  Speaker 5: the Triple Crown races. Whatsoever, I'm gonna try to explain it.
• 1:49
  Speaker 5: You know, I'm not really gonna give like actual specific
• 1:52
  Speaker 5: bets because it happens the day of. I'm gonna talk
• 1:54
  Speaker 5: about the different ways that you can bet it and
• 1:58
  Speaker 5: the ways that maybe make more sense, and what the
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: betting actually means, and hopefully I'm gonna get all this
• 2:03
  Speaker 5: information right because I'm trying to remember like, uh, like
• 2:07
  Speaker 5: jockeys of like switch horses and stuff like that. So
• 2:10
  Speaker 5: I'm trying to remember like what's going on as far
• 2:12
  Speaker 5: as that's concerned. First of all, horse betting is not
• 2:18
  Speaker 5: like regular betting where you're just betting against the house.
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: That's not what you're doing in horse betting. So it's
• 2:23
  Speaker 5: actually easier to win money because you're it's more like
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: when you're doing like fantasy, like daily fantasy stuff. It's
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: paramutual betting, which daily fantasy is kind of similar in
• 2:37
  Speaker 5: that what happens is all the money gets pooled and
• 2:40
  Speaker 5: the house takes a break, but then all the rest
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: of it is payout money and if you do better
• 2:47
  Speaker 5: then the other people and there's a lot of dead
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: money in that pool, you know what I mean. So
• 2:51
  Speaker 5: if you know what you're doing, you can clean up
• 2:54
  Speaker 5: and you get more money still, like based on the
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: odds that you're playing, Like if you play horses with
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: like longer odds and whatever, that will mean that you'll
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: get more money out of the pot if they win.
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: Hopefully I explained that right. Hopefully that makes sense. And
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: then like the different bets that you can make on
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: the race, I mean there are like the simple ones.
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: You can just bet a horse to win the race. Obviously,
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: you can bet a horse to win or place. I'm
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: pretty sure to come in either of the top two.
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: You can do win place or show, and that that
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: horse will come you know, has to come in any
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: of the top three. But of course the odds are
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: gonna differ. Obviously you'll get weaker odds on that because
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: there's more of a chance your horse is gonna come
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: in the top three than actually win. And then there
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: are exact as to try. Efect Us is where I
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: think you really want to take advantage of the market
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: because what those do, like the exact you put it's
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: it's basically a two horse bet and triffectas three, but
• 3:54
  Speaker 5: they're basically the same thing, just with a different amount
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: of horses. And you can do like so with just
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: a straight exact or trifecta. You need to get the
• 4:04
  Speaker 5: order right. So if I pick like one horse to
• 4:07
  Speaker 5: come in first, one horse to come in second, I
• 4:09
  Speaker 5: have to get that order exactly right. To win that
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: exact or trifecta, you have to get all three of
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: them in the right order. But the beauty of it
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: is that when you make a trifecta or exact a wager,
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: you can make the bet with all different like combinations
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: essentially like whichever ones you kind of want, like you
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: kind of mix and match a little bit, And of
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: course the ones that don't hit are gonna lose, but
• 4:33
  Speaker 5: the ones that do hit are gonna win, and you
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: have a chance to hit like enough of those different
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: bets that you can make money on it, right, Like
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: you're if you do it that way and you put
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: a bunch of those in, you're gonna lose a bunch
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: of them, but as long as you win more money
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: on the ones on the parts that you win. I
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: don't know if I'm explaining that right. But then you
• 4:52
  Speaker 5: also have a box exact or trifecta option, which is
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: similar to that, except they can come in in any order,
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: so it doesn't return as much. But you pick, like
• 5:03
  Speaker 5: box tri factor, you pick these three horses to come
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  Speaker 5: in in the top three, and if they come in
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: in the top three in any order, that leg of
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: your box trifecta will pay out, if that makes sense.
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: But what you do is you do like all different combinations.
• 5:20
  Speaker 5: Like say there's a horse that I think has the
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: best chance to win. I like this horse the best.
• 5:25
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna put that horse at the top of my
• 5:29
  Speaker 5: exact or trifecta or whatever. I'm gonna have one with
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: just him at the top, and then I'm gonna have
• 5:33
  Speaker 5: different combinations below him, you know what I mean. But
• 5:37
  Speaker 5: then I'm gonna do other things because if he doesn't win,
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: you still want to be able to win some bets.
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: So I'm gonna take those horses, probably the ones that
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: I put in like second and third, I'm gonna have
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: some other exact as a trifecta's where I put those
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: horses at the top instead, you know what I mean.
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: And then the way that it works out, you can
• 5:54
  Speaker 5: actually win money that way. So hopefully that makes sense.
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna get into the horses. I'm not gonna talk
• 5:59
  Speaker 5: about every horse in the field, because they are about
• 6:01
  Speaker 5: twenty different horses. When I'm not talking about the different
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: styles of horses, and try to talk about like the
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: horses that are the ones that have like the best
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: odds to win and whatever, and maybe like a couple
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: of ones that are long shots. I really don't know
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: that much, so bear with me, Charles. What's up, dirty sock?
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: What's up anime horse girl? I have no idea. What
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: is the Kentucky Derby becoming gay or something? I have
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: no idea. Well, thank you, I appreciate. Don't call any
• 6:34
  Speaker 5: lawyers on me for the intro. UNLV, what's up? Thanks
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: for hanging out. Yes, I don't really pay attention to
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: the pedigree that much either. Although basically every horse, every
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: horse in this Kentucky Derby except for Emerging Market, is
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: a descendant of Secretariat. Secretariat is the Genghis Khan of horses.
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: People don't really realize this, but we're like ten generations
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: removed from Secretariat now, so that family has branched out
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: so much. Literally every horse in this field, besides Emerging
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: Market is a descendantive Secretariat. Of course, my fucking camera
• 7:14
  Speaker 5: is not focusing. Come on, dude, there we always because
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: of my TV. I got the hockey game on right now.
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: Don't even want to talk about what's going on today,
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: but let's take a look at the field. So the
• 7:27
  Speaker 5: field has changed a little bit because a couple of
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: horses got scratched. So the first scratch was silent tactic,
• 7:34
  Speaker 5: so silent Tactic will not run in the race. And
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: what happens with a scratch, So silent Tactic was gonna
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: be coming out of gate thirteen. So they pick all
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: the pole positions the Saturday before, and I believe it's random.
• 7:48
  Speaker 5: And it used to be a smaller race than Kentucky Derbys.
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: You'll hear things about like the history of the race. Oh,
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: like you know, horses that are above ten whatever, like
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: double digit gate numbers, like they don't win as much.
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: But yeah, that's because in the really old races they
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: didn't even have those gate numbers. So I don't put
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: that much weight into that. But I will say that
• 8:08
  Speaker 5: I don't like like being right on the rail, which
• 8:12
  Speaker 5: unfortunately is what's happening to Renegade here was one of
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: the favorites. And I don't like horses that are way
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: away on the outside either, because those horses are gonna
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: have to get over you know what I mean. In
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: a race that's gonna have a lot of horses in it,
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  Speaker 5: a lot of traffic, Like obviously the shortest path is
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: to be on the inside, but the problem with that
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: is all the traffic is moving over to the inside. Now,
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: when the horses get scratched, like Silent Tactic did, and
• 8:37
  Speaker 5: then a couple other ones did as well, Full Effort
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: actually got scratched, and one of the other ones did
• 8:43
  Speaker 5: Right to Party. I guess when that happens, all the
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: horses that are next in line move into the field,
• 8:51
  Speaker 5: and all the horses behind those move up a gate,
• 8:54
  Speaker 5: if that makes sense. So you know, for instance, right
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: to Party is scratched's actually gonna run out of the
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: five gate now, I believe, instead of the six. So
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: you know, keep that in mind, I suppose. But then
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: you know, people will talk about, like the horse running
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: out of the seventeen never wins, and that's further Ado
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: got moved into that spot. But now I think with
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: another scratch, I think further Ado is gonna be sixteen. Now, Like,
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: I don't really put that much weight into any of that,
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: Like the horse out of seventeen is never won. I
• 9:27
  Speaker 5: don't really care that much about that. But generally, yes,
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: like I think being in some of these middle gate
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: numbers is probably beneficial, and being a little bit closer
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: to the to the rail also it's probably more beneficial.
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: But not right on the rail. No, we're definitely not
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: going Emerging Market. That is not what I said. Emerging
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: Market is the only horse not descended from Secretariat, although
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: Emerging Market I believe is a descendant of American Pharaoh
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: something like that. I don't know. I don't know all
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: the pedigree here, but basically, you have different styles of horses.
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: You have horses that are basically the pace setters, and
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: this site here has a list of basically the horses
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: that kind of, you know, just matter more in the race.
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: The pace setters are also called early because basically they
• 10:21
  Speaker 5: just get out of the gate early and they run
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: really fast. I don't like those horses to win a
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: longer race like the Kentucky Derby because a lot of
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: times they will just gas themselves out, if that makes sense,
• 10:33
  Speaker 5: and maybe they won't run as fast. But if you
• 10:35
  Speaker 5: get like a faster horse in the race and they're
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: gonna be running that fast, some of those other speed
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: horses are gonna start running faster, and that actually sets
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: up better for closers because those horses that are you know,
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: they're called early here, I just call them the speed horses. Basically,
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: they could tire themselves out and then they're gonna be
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: running slower towards the end of the race, and that
• 10:58
  Speaker 5: gives more of a chance for the horses that are
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: way behind, like the horses that make their jump later
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: in the race, it gives them more of a chance
• 11:07
  Speaker 5: to win. The Kentucky Derby, I believe, is like a
• 11:11
  Speaker 5: mile and a quarter I believe is the length the
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: distance on it, so it is of It is not
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: the longest race, so it is one of the longer
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: Ish races. So it does set up better for closers,
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: depending well depending I think closers which are the horses
• 11:28
  Speaker 5: that are gonna run near the back, and those are
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: listed as sustained here, I guess I think these are
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: the closers here, although some of them, a couple of
• 11:36
  Speaker 5: them got all of them got scratched, actually full efforts
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: while attacked right to party. All the closers got scratched
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: pretty much. So there you go. But those horses will
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: be near the back, and then they'll try to make
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: a huge jump late, And if the race is run
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: too fast early, it benefits the closers more because those
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: horses in front will get more tired later. But I
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: think then in the Kentucky Derby, unless it's gonna be
• 12:04
  Speaker 5: a super fast race early on. I think you want
• 12:06
  Speaker 5: to look at these press or horses, either early slash
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: press or presser, which those horses are usually I would
• 12:13
  Speaker 5: call them the stalkers. That's what you want, because what
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: those horses do is they stay basically right off the
• 12:19
  Speaker 5: lead by like a few horses. So you'll see them
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: kind of in the middle towards maybe the front ish,
• 12:25
  Speaker 5: but behind like the horses that are the ones that
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: get out the gate the fastest, and then those horses
• 12:31
  Speaker 5: will get into a good position and then make their
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: final move. I like that in the Kentucky Derby, and
• 12:37
  Speaker 5: a lot of the horses that have the best odds
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: are in that grouping, and that's for a reason, so
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: I do like that. Now this because of the scratches,
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: one of the speed horses, Great White, got moved in.
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: Great White not really a threat to win the race
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: at fifty to one, but Great White is going to
• 12:56
  Speaker 5: probably make the pace faster early on in this race
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: because Great White is a is a shark. No, Great
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: White is a faster horse, is a speed horse. So
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: that might actually increase the tempo a little bit. And
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: if that happens, that actually might help renegade actually a
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: little bit, because that might mean that if the speed
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: is like faster early, it might mean that there's not
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: gonna be as much traffic. They're like closer to the rail.
• 13:23
  Speaker 5: That's just kind of how it works. I don't know
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: if that totally makes sense in your mind, but you know,
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: I think it's gonna be a slightly faster race, but
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: not like so fast that like the closers are gonna
• 13:35
  Speaker 5: be in position to win this thing, but also the
• 13:38
  Speaker 5: closers that really had any chance to win, like full Effort,
• 13:41
  Speaker 5: and really I think it was maybe full Effort might
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: have been the best one, although I think Full Effort
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: is a turf horse and hasn't run on a dirt before,
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: so that's probably not a good thing either. So I
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: don't know. I might be getting these things wrong because
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: I'm an idiot when it comes to this. I don't know.
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: But yeah, so I don't really see closers, you know,
• 14:03
  Speaker 5: making noise in this race. Really. You also have a
• 14:06
  Speaker 5: six speed I believe is another one of the speed
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: horses at fifty to one and has an Indian trainer,
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: So I guess that's interesting. I don't know, but the
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: trainers that mostly make noise in this thing. Or Todd
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: Pletcher who you'll see you know his name on some
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: of the best horses here, Brad Cox, you know sort
• 14:28
  Speaker 5: of them, and then I guess the Motts and then
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: you know those are kind of the guys that are known,
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: uh like they're pretty much always gonna enter, like multiple horses,
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: and Bob Balford, I guess, and Chad Brown as the
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: trainer of Emerging Market. I don't really know that much
• 14:42
  Speaker 5: about Emerging Market, but Emerging Market hasn't really been really
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: totally on my list. Now, if we run down the
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: horses that do have legitimate chances to win this race,
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: although really it is the Katucky Derby, I mean, something
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: crazy could happen, but I don't like see any of
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: these fifty to one, thirty to one, like those are
• 15:01
  Speaker 5: probably not gonna win. You might be able to identify
• 15:04
  Speaker 5: some potential long shots here to maybe get you know,
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: into the top spots in the race. But you know, crashes, no,
• 15:17
  Speaker 5: I mean, horses will like bump into each other like
• 15:20
  Speaker 5: that's pretty normal in these races, but it doesn't like
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: totally knock the horse out, but it will like it
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: will slow the horse down if that happens though, and
• 15:28
  Speaker 5: it might give the horse a bad trip. Yeah, yeah, right,
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: So Renegade has the best odds to win at four
• 15:38
  Speaker 5: to one. There are reasons for this, uh Todd Pletcher horse. Now,
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: the thing about Renegade is erod Or Tees has chosen
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: to ride Renegade and Ortez is one of the best
• 15:49
  Speaker 5: jockeys in the race. And it's an interesting scenario because
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: Orties I believe, has ridden Renegade and further Ado and
• 15:57
  Speaker 5: I I'm not sure about maybe I think Commandment as well.
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: And Ortiz has never won the Kentucky Derby before. Now
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: you could take that two ways. Like, for one, thing,
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: that means he's he wants to win this race because
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: he's never won one. He's one of the best jockey's
• 16:16
  Speaker 5: out there. But it could mean that maybe he's just
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: not a good jockey the Kentucky Derby if he still
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: hasn't gotten it, you know. But I think it means
• 16:23
  Speaker 5: something that he had his choice basically between Renegade, further
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: Ado and Commitment, and he chose Renegade for this, even
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: though I do think he has like a relationship with
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: Todd Pletcher and whatever. But still the trainer of Renegade,
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: but still that means something. That means that he thinks
• 16:40
  Speaker 5: Renegade gave him the best chance to win this race,
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: but then unfortunately for him, Renegade drew the one post,
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: which is again not good because Renegade is right on
• 16:49
  Speaker 5: the rail. So I don't think I would have Renegade
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: as like my top horse in this race, like I'm
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: gonna have Renegade, like I'm probably gonna make bets on this,
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: and I will have exotics. I will put Renegade in
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: like the exact as, the trifectas and stuff, because Renegade
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: definitely should have a chance to be in one of
• 17:08
  Speaker 5: those top spots. Renegade, you know, you can look at
• 17:12
  Speaker 5: the horses history and whatever, which I think I went
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: to the wrong page here for that. Hang on, what
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: did I want to do here? I don't know. I
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: think that opened a new tab. Hold on a minute,
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: I have Renegade open right now here. Actually, so Renegade
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: has two wins in the last two races at the
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Downs, the Downs and Oakland Park,
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: which is Arkansas Derby now the Arkansas Derby and the
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: Florida Derby. I think those two races basically generate like
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: the most out of all these earlier races, those ones
• 17:48
  Speaker 5: generate the most Derby winners like those are considered the
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: best stepping stones, So Renegade does have that an Arkansas
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: Derby win. My worry about Renegade though, like you'll, I'll
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: get some of the other horses in these races. The
• 18:03
  Speaker 5: competition wasn't really that great. I don't know, like he
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: beats Silent Tactic in the Arkansas Derby, the Puma, who
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: is one of the better horses in this race. In
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: the Kentucky Derby did come in third in the Tampa
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: Bay race there, which is I guess the Sam F. Davis.
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: But I don't know man Renegade. I mean, I'm concerned
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: about the one post and the competition a little bit,
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: so I don't actually think I'm gonna have Renegade as
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: like my top horse here. The other horses that have
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: decent shots to win here, Commandment is six to one.
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: I don't like Commandment though, Like I think you might
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: have to put Commandment in the exotics, like in the
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: Trivectas and exact is just because Commandment is a good
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: enough horse that if you don't put him in there,
• 18:48
  Speaker 5: and there's a decent enough chance he's gonna get into
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: the top three that you don't want him to just
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: ruin all your bets, you know what I mean. So
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: I think you have to have him in there, but
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: he's not really my choice. Like you look at Commandment.
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: Let me go back here, let me see if you
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: can find Commandment here. And actually, who's riding Commandment? I
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: don't even remember, uh Commandments of brad Cox horse. Louis
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: Saiez is running Commandment. Uh Saya's is a good jockey,
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: very experienced jockey. So that's not a bad thing. Uh,
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: But I think Commandment is overrated, and it's mostly because
• 19:23
  Speaker 5: uh oh, here's Commandment. Commandment has won five races or
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: four races in a row, but a couple of them
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: were some of those early races that or whatever. Now,
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: Commandment did run on this track in the Churchill Churchill
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: Downs in an earlier race, so that was last year,
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: and that is not really considered to be a stepping
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: stone to the Kazaki Derby, even though it does mean
• 19:48
  Speaker 5: the horse is familiar with this track, but that's not
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: really considered to be that big of a deal. Then
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: Commandment won the Mucho Macho Man, the Fountain of Youth,
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: and the the Florida Derby, And that's why Commandment has
• 20:02
  Speaker 5: these good odds here. To win the Florida Derby considered
• 20:07
  Speaker 5: to be a stepping stone, and Commandment did beat some
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: good competition here. Chief Wallaby was in Founded of Youth
• 20:13
  Speaker 5: and Florida Derby. The Puma was in those as well,
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: but Commandment barely won both those races, and some of
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: it kind of had to do with Chief Wallaby kind
• 20:23
  Speaker 5: of was like an inexperienced horse and got kind of
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: a bad trip in those. So I think Commandment might
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: be a little bit overrated because the horse won those
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: races by such a small amount, like Commandment won those
• 20:39
  Speaker 5: two races by a combined less than a like less
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: than half a horse length probably, so those races were
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: extremely close. So I think Commandment maybe is a little
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: bit overrated here, but still obviously still a very good
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: chance to win the race here. The Puma is in
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: here at ten to one. Gustavo don't go. I don't
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: know much about him as a trainer. Javier Costellano is
• 21:03
  Speaker 5: gonna be the jockey. They're all Hispanic because they're smaller.
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: I don't know. The Puma definitely does have a chance
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: in this race. Now, Like I said, the Puma did
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: make a good run in the Florida Derby there and
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: won the Tampa Bay Derby prior to that over further Ado,
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: so that's good. And came in third and whatever. This
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: other Tampa Bay Downs race was here the Sam F.
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: Davis that Renegade won, so that's not bad. And you know,
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: when you're looking at this, you also have to take
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: into account. You know, there were like Buyer speed figures,
• 21:38
  Speaker 5: Buyer the name B E y E R, which tells
• 21:41
  Speaker 5: you how fast the horse was, and if you look
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: at how many races the horse has run like during
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: that cycle, a lot of times you want the horse
• 21:49
  Speaker 5: to be like in their I believe in their third
• 21:53
  Speaker 5: or fourth race off the layoff tends to be like
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: their best trips. So that's kind of something you want
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: to keep in mind as well. The Puma, hear, by
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: the way, has run four races already this year, so
• 22:05
  Speaker 5: that is a lot. But definitely an experienced horse. You know,
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: I don't know that much about the Puma, but I
• 22:10
  Speaker 5: think the Puma does have a chance to win By
• 22:13
  Speaker 5: the way, all these horses I'm talking about classify as stalkers,
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: so they all are the right style for this race.
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: All the ones I've talked about, all the ones I'm
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: gonna put near the top, are that style of horse.
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure. So yeah, the Puma, you know, not,
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: I'm not gonna consider the puma to be like in
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: my top three, I don't think. But the Puma, you
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: know might be up there, I guess I would say,
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: do you know again, I don't know too much about
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: some of these horses though. Then we have let me say,
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: so the Puma's running out of the nine gait by
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: the way, well there was a scratch, so he's gonna
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: get moved down to eight. Commandment's gonna get moved down
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: to the five. And then we have Chief Walla be
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: running out of the twelve gate, which will will be
• 23:00
  Speaker 5: the eleven I believe I'm skipping over. I don't know
• 23:04
  Speaker 5: that much about Incredible Dude. Wonder Dean is one of
• 23:08
  Speaker 5: these Japanese horses. I don't like the Japanese horses in
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: the Kentucky Derby really. They tend to not really make
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: a whole lot of noise, and they have to come
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: over from another country, which is usually not that great.
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: I don't know a ton about incredible that just haven't
• 23:20
  Speaker 5: heard that much about him. But Chief Wallaby. I like
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: this this horse, man Chief Wallaby. Now Chief Wallaby, I
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: told you has run. Chief Wallaby is inexperience. It will
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: only be the horse's fourth race. But that inexperience is
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: really what caused Chief Walla Wallaby to lose these other
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: two races against Commandment and the Puma that I talked
• 23:45
  Speaker 5: about there. But Chief Wallaby could have won both of
• 23:48
  Speaker 5: those races. And that's why I like this horse. I
• 23:50
  Speaker 5: think this horse is undervalued here and did win a
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: race on another dirt track at Gulf Stream in the
• 23:58
  Speaker 5: horse's first race. Now the horse is also gonna be
• 24:01
  Speaker 5: in his fourth race this year in this form cycle,
• 24:06
  Speaker 5: I guess if you want to call it that. So
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: that's usually considered to be a race where that horse
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: might have like one of their best trips. So I
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: like that. And I think Wallaby might be a little
• 24:15
  Speaker 5: bit underrated here just because of not winning you know,
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. But I
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: believe that Chief Wallaby got into traffic and had to
• 24:24
  Speaker 5: try to go like between a couple of horses, and
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: at least one of those races, I think that was
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: in the Florida Derby, and had to try to split
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: Puma and Commandment and couldn't do it and just kind
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: of got locked out. But the problem is Chief Wallaby
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: is gonna be wearing blinkers in this race now, which
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: is like a mask they put on the horse so
• 24:43
  Speaker 5: it restricts the horse's peripheral vision. And usually you only
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: do that with an inexperienced horse because you don't want
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: them to pay attention to the horses that are beside them,
• 24:52
  Speaker 5: and it's usually considered to be a bad thing, like
• 24:55
  Speaker 5: horses with blinkers can't win the Kentucky Derby or whatever.
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: But I kind of like this horse. Man. I don't know.
• 25:03
  Speaker 5: I know there's this whole thing with the blinkers and whatever,
• 25:07
  Speaker 5: but ah, Man Alvarado is gonna be riding Chief Wallaby.
• 25:13
  Speaker 5: Here is the jockey. I don't know that much about Alvarado.
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: I think he is a pretty experienced jockey, though, yeah,
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man, I mean, maybe the blinkers won't
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: be that bad of a thing because he wants the
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: horse to just focus on the trip and not get
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: scared of you know, splitting the splitting the other like,
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: you know, splitting the other horses getting through traffic. And
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: I believe Chief Wallaby was barely off the win in
• 25:40
  Speaker 5: both of those races, coming in second in the Fountain
• 25:43
  Speaker 5: of Youth there and the third in the Florida Derby.
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: I believe Chief Wallaby lost both those races by like
• 25:50
  Speaker 5: maybe less than a length combined. So I think Chief
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: Wallaby is an underrated horse here. Man. Then you know
• 25:59
  Speaker 5: I have some love for Potent Day at twenty to
• 26:03
  Speaker 5: one of Bob Bafford horse. I don't really know much
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: about Potent Day. Juan Hernandez is gonna be riding Potent Day.
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: You know, I wish I knew more about some of
• 26:15
  Speaker 5: these horses. Man, Let me see, can I search here?
• 26:18
  Speaker 5: I guess I can. Looking at let's see Potent Day,
• 26:25
  Speaker 5: and you get a lot of like job. You know,
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: these jockeys have ridden a lot of different horses too,
• 26:30
  Speaker 5: so you know it might be better if you get
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: a jockey that has ridden, you know, like on that
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: same horse repeatedly. So like Wallaby, Alvarado ran with Chief
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: ran as the jockey for Chief Wallaby in all three
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: of those races, you know what I mean. So that's
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: at least consistency. So that's a good thing for Chief
• 26:50
  Speaker 5: Wallaby as well. You know, for Renegade, let me see,
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: I wish we could see who the jockey was on
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: Renegade there, because I believe the jockey for Renegade has
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: been different in multiple races, which I kind of wanted
• 27:05
  Speaker 5: to see that here, but I guess we cannot. Yeah,
• 27:11
  Speaker 5: that's weird.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: I guess. I guess we can't really quite see it here.
• 27:15
  Speaker 5: I don't know, but that's the thing though, you like,
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: some of these horses have had multiple different jockeys ride them,
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: so that could be a little bit of a concern.
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: But as far as I was gonna talk about Potente,
• 27:29
  Speaker 5: hang on, I'll search again. Whatever. So yeah, for potentde
• 27:39
  Speaker 5: Potente has two first place finishes at Santa Anita. I
• 27:43
  Speaker 5: guess in California. I don't know if Santa need is
• 27:46
  Speaker 5: really considered to be that great of a stepping stone
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: to this race having to travel from California, so this
• 27:51
  Speaker 5: horse has not run outside of California yet. Potente has
• 27:56
  Speaker 5: run all of his races. I think they're all male
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: pretty much has run, they're stronger and faster, has run
• 28:01
  Speaker 5: all of his races in in Santa Anida so far,
• 28:07
  Speaker 5: so I don't know if that's a good thing or not.
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: And lost to so Happy in the last one, but
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: that might overrate so Happy a little bit. I'm not sure.
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: So Happy also actually lost to Potent Day in the
• 28:17
  Speaker 5: previous race in Santa Anida as well, in a different
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: race there. Kind of interesting, but I don't know, man,
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: I mean those horses. I think if you want Potent Day,
• 28:30
  Speaker 5: you know, to be like your last horse in some
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: of your exotics. I guess you're one long shot that's
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: in there. I think that's fine. Then you know Emerging
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: Market is going to be ridden by Flavian Pratt, who
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: is a very experienced jockey. I don't know too much
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: about Emerging Market either, but you know, Emerging Market fifteen
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: to one odds, by the way, Potent Day twenty to one.
• 28:54
  Speaker 5: You know, as far as this horse, the one horse
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: not related to secretary of Emerging Market's very experience though
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: is only ridden twice. It looks like and ran in uh.
• 29:07
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what this race is here? Fg
• 29:09
  Speaker 5: which one is this the fair grounds. I'm not sure.
• 29:13
  Speaker 5: I'm not really sure that that's a great Yes, stepping
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: stone there, I don't know man emerging market, yeah, inexperienced
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: horse there. Then you know, further Ado was the one
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: that everybody's talking about. Further Ado has the fastest buyer
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: speed figure in the race. Further Ado is at six
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: to one, and for good reason, brad Cox horse here.
• 29:34
  Speaker 5: The thing about further Ado, though, John Valaskz is going
• 29:37
  Speaker 5: to be the jockey on further Ado. The thing about
• 29:41
  Speaker 5: further Ado, though, is further Ado has had like three
• 29:43
  Speaker 5: or four different jockeys on him, and it's listed I
• 29:46
  Speaker 5: guess as Ortiz riding him, but Ortiz, I think Ortiz
• 29:51
  Speaker 5: and I think another jockey have both ridden further Ado,
• 29:53
  Speaker 5: and Ortiz, I told you, decided to run Renegade in
• 29:56
  Speaker 5: this race instead of further Ado and had the pick
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: of both. So he feels that Renegade has a better
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: chance to win this race than further Ado. So that's
• 30:06
  Speaker 5: kind of a concern. But further Ado, there's a lot
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: to like here. Further Ado, like I said, has the
• 30:11
  Speaker 5: fastest buyer speed figures in this race and has a
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: one oh six, which is the fastest out of any
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: of the horses in this race. I think in his
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: most recent race, I believe further Ado also put up
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: another one hundred plus buyer figure I think in the
• 30:27
  Speaker 5: previous race. And further Ado won multiple of these races
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: by huge amounts. I believe in the Kentucky Jockey Club
• 30:38
  Speaker 5: race maybe it was, and then the Bluegrass, but some
• 30:41
  Speaker 5: of these were last year. He didn't run between November
• 30:43
  Speaker 5: and March, so he's run a lot of races, six races,
• 30:45
  Speaker 5: but this is gonna be his fourth race in this
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: current form cycle, which, like I said, is good. The
• 30:51
  Speaker 5: fourth race off of layoff is good. Just ran in
• 30:55
  Speaker 5: the Bluegrass, which I believe is in this I believe
• 30:59
  Speaker 5: it's at Churchill, but that race is not considered to
• 31:02
  Speaker 5: be a stepping so under this and the problem with
• 31:04
  Speaker 5: this is these races. So further Ado won that race
• 31:09
  Speaker 5: and one I believe the race two races prior to that,
• 31:14
  Speaker 5: by massive amounts. I think further Ado one of those
• 31:17
  Speaker 5: two races by a combined almost thirty lengths, like absolutely
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: dominated the field. So everybody loves this horse. The horses
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: like you know, really really fast dominated those races. But
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: did I actually come in second to the Puma in whatever?
• 31:33
  Speaker 5: This Tampa Bay race was Tampa Bay Derby, which is
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: a little bit interesting, but you know, I think it
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: is a little bit telling that Raretis did not want
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: to ride further Ado in this race and further Ado.
• 31:44
  Speaker 5: The other problem is that the competition just wasn't that good,
• 31:47
  Speaker 5: like in that dominant win in the Bluegrass, no competition,
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: and there are I think some horses scratch and whatever,
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: And besides the Puma, I think in the Tampa Bay
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: race there there wasn't really that much. There weren't really
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: that many good horse in that race either, so I
• 32:03
  Speaker 5: don't know, man. And then as far as the and
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: further Ado is gonna be running out of the sixteen
• 32:09
  Speaker 5: gate now I think instead of eighteen, and it gets
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: to skip over the seventeen, where no horse has ever
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: won out of the seventeen. But I don't put that
• 32:16
  Speaker 5: much weight into that. So that's basically it. Like those
• 32:20
  Speaker 5: are all the horses. I think. What I'm gonna do
• 32:23
  Speaker 5: is I'm gonna list these horses in order of what
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: I would do, like as far as you know, like
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: how I would order them in my tickets. Here you know,
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: like mostly gonna be doing exotics. I would put cheap
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: Wallaby at the top, man, I think Chief Wallaby is
• 32:40
  Speaker 5: my favorite horse here. Then I would go, man, it's
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: it's tough to go below that. Ooh man, Chief Wallaby.
• 32:50
  Speaker 5: Then I would probably go I might want to say Renegade,
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: you know, just because Ortiz did pick Renegane. I'm more
• 33:00
  Speaker 5: about the number one draw there though, But yeah, I
• 33:04
  Speaker 5: think I would go Chief Wallaby, then Renegade, then further Ado.
• 33:09
  Speaker 5: Then I really don't like Commandment that much, dude, I don't.
• 33:16
  Speaker 5: Maybe I would still put Commandment fourth though, did I
• 33:21
  Speaker 5: skip up? Who else do we have here? Then I
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: would go the Puma and then I don't know, obviously
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: I haven't thought this through enough, and then probably Potente
• 33:37
  Speaker 5: I guess maybe fifth. So yeah, I think that's what
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: I would do. So I would go, yeah, Chief Wallaby, Renegade,
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: further Ado, Commandment, the Puma, and then Potent Day. So
• 33:51
  Speaker 5: that's six. That's how I would order my top six,
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: if that makes sense. Like those are I think my
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: top horses. I know it's not that crazy because a
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: lot of them have good odds to win this thing,
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: but they have those odds for a reason. And hey,
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: my my favorite is an eight to one shot at
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: Chief wall On Chief Wallaby, So there you go. Renegade
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: is then four to one, and then you know, command
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: I didn't like Commandment as much, like I said, but
• 34:15
  Speaker 5: I'd put Commandment fourth probably. But again, when you're doing
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: exactly as the drive factors, you're doing a mix of
• 34:23
  Speaker 5: you know, you probably want about six or seven of
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: the horses in the field in those tickets, in different combinations.
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: You know what it means that you don't totally miss.
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: And then the pumas ten to one and I have
• 34:34
  Speaker 5: him fifth and then sixth. I had a potent day
• 34:38
  Speaker 5: at twenty to one. Further Ado was also six to one,
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: by the way, and I had him third. So there
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: you go. That's probably what I would do. And I
• 34:48
  Speaker 5: think that's gonna do it. Man, No, the combination of
• 34:55
  Speaker 5: the jockey and the horse is what matters. You want
• 34:57
  Speaker 5: a jockey who's experienced with rye that particular horse. Yeah,
• 35:03
  Speaker 5: that's gonna do it, though, Man, Learn a tone on Twitter,
• 35:06
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• 35:09
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• 35:13
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• 35:19
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• 35:30
  Speaker 5: the Giants Podcast, which we'll be back for more episodes there,
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: and then I will have an NFL Season win total
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: show coming out at some point. And then obviously I'm
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: gonna have to be back in the morning for the
• 35:41
  Speaker 5: Saturday show and we need to start doing fucking better here.
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: I'm really, really fucking pissed right now. I'm not happy,
• 35:49
  Speaker 5: but that's gonna do it. Peace, But don't you go quiet.
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: Don't you play it from the flow? Your name still miss?
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: Then do somebody for show to put the glass down?
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: Baby? Look at me, nic.
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on nothing nice now.
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, Let me for you. That bad
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: bites hard.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: But it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: and stay with me now