Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 10/1/26: Bond Yields Hit 24 Year High, Bibi Exploits Plane Hijacking, Paxton Says Trump Hurting Texas GOP

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10/1/26: Bond Yields Hit 24 Year High, Bibi Exploits Plane Hijacking, Paxton Says Trump Hurting Texas GOP · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

0:00
Speaker 1: Hey guys, Ready or Not 2024 is here and we
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Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody.
0:26
Speaker 3: Happy Thursday.
0:28
Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today. Good to
0:31
Speaker 2: see you, Ryan. People live for the pound. Where are
0:35
Speaker 2: we going to go this way? I'm going to put
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Speaker 2: both my fists. I hope you guys like my new
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Speaker 2: remote digs. But we do have an amazing show for
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Speaker 2: everybody today. Bro show. Wow, this is actually easier remote
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Speaker 2: because I can see this beautiful little bar that we have.
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Speaker 3: Down there.
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Speaker 2: We're going to start off with the situation with Iran. Ryan,
0:56
Speaker 2: we believe Goloboff might be a free month trial subscriber
0:59
Speaker 2: because he is regurgitating. Ryan Grim, exactly, and we're talking
1:05
Speaker 2: explicitly about the 10-year bond situation. We're going to give
1:09
Speaker 2: everybody an update as well on these terror attacks, both
1:13
Speaker 2: the UK, who is now claiming that there are strong
1:16
Speaker 2: indications that Iran is tied to to the so-called explosives attack,
1:22
Speaker 2: even though no explosives were found, against that air base,
1:25
Speaker 2: in addition to some new details that we're learning about
1:27
Speaker 2: that alleged hijacking, which a potential hijack situation, suicide attack,
1:34
Speaker 2: very strange kind of situation happened on that fly Dubai
1:37
Speaker 2: flight from Israel to Dubai. We're also going to talk
1:41
Speaker 2: about the midterms. There's some new leaked data, or sorry,
1:45
Speaker 2: leaked audio from Ken Paxton in which he admits that
1:48
Speaker 2: the GOP midterm convention in Texas actually hurt his numbers.
1:53
Speaker 2: That's with some additional reporting that's coming out about Hispanics
1:57
Speaker 2: in South Texas flipping against the Republican party. Ro Khanna
2:01
Speaker 2: is actually going to stop by. He's going to join
2:03
Speaker 2: us and talk a little bit about AI. He has
2:06
Speaker 2: a new bill that he has released, which is banning
2:09
Speaker 2: super intelligence. Bill Gates, in addition, has joined the Ezra
2:13
Speaker 2: Klein podcast, uh, Some interesting stuff there from Bill. I
2:16
Speaker 2: don't fully trust everything the guy has to say, but
2:19
Speaker 2: Ryan and I are going to break that down. And
2:21
Speaker 2: then Christopher Leonard, who is one of my favorite authors,
2:24
Speaker 2: has a new Atlantic story about the fad delusion. Chris
2:28
Speaker 2: is just one of the best people whenever it comes
2:30
Speaker 2: to anti-monopoly, corruption. He's written phenomenal books. Ryan, I think
2:35
Speaker 2: you guys are friends, and thank you for booking him in.
2:38
Speaker 2: I'm really excited to talk to.
2:39
Speaker 3: Him about that.
2:40
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a really essential story because he's looking at
2:42
Speaker 4: the complete collapse of our missile defense system while we're
2:46
Speaker 4: still pretending like we're going to continue operating in the
2:51
Speaker 4: Middle East as if that wasn't a physical constraint on
2:55
Speaker 4: our ability.
2:56
Speaker 3: To do so. That's right. All right, Ryan, take us away, pitchmaster.
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Speaker 4: Well, we actually do have a very significant new pitch
3:03
Speaker 4: now because.
3:04
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3:40
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3:42
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4:01
Speaker 4: subs here for Sagar.
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Speaker 3: No, no, no. I've given up, Ryan. It's all yours, dog.
4:06
Speaker 2: By the way, people did sign up for my baklava pitch.
4:09
Speaker 2: I don't know if you know about this. I said
4:10
Speaker 2: that if 50 people... signed up on our Tuesday show,
4:14
Speaker 2: I would buy baklava for our entire staff because I
4:17
Speaker 2: mistakenly said baklava instead of balaclava. And so I am
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Speaker 2: now on the hook, baklava and apple tea for the
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Speaker 2: entire crew. I will have it for all of you
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Speaker 2: whenever you come into the studio. So thank you to everybody.
4:30
Speaker 2: It's going to cost me a fortune, but it is
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Speaker 2: what it is. There's actually a Michelin star Turkish restaurant
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4:38
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4:41
Speaker 4: Enough people will forget to cancel that you'll be able
4:44
Speaker 4: to afford the baklava.
4:46
Speaker 3: I'll be able to afford the baklava. That's exactly correct.
4:49
Speaker 2: Okay, let's go ahead and start with this Iran situation.
4:51
Speaker 2: Let's put it up here on the screen. I'm going
4:53
Speaker 2: to set it up, but Ryan, I'm going to let
4:55
Speaker 2: you explain why exactly this is so significant. So the
4:59
Speaker 2: yield on the 10-year treasury has now surged to a
5:02
Speaker 2: 24-year high. Quote, relentless selling pressure has driven the yield.
5:08
Speaker 2: On the 10-year U.S. Treasury note to a 24-year high,
5:11
Speaker 2: a new marker that provides further evidence that the economy
5:13
Speaker 2: has entered a new chapter of higher borrowing costs that
5:17
Speaker 2: is a key benchmark for interest rates on all types
5:19
Speaker 2: of debt. The big yield on the 10-year note has
5:22
Speaker 2: climbed to 5.3% in recent trading, pushing past its 2007
5:27
Speaker 2: intraday peak of 5.3% in May of 2002. So in
5:31
Speaker 2: the wake of the dot-com boom. Ryan, can you put
5:35
Speaker 2: this in context for us? Because I know you've been
5:37
Speaker 2: following the Iranian communications on bonds and yields, and you're
5:42
Speaker 2: putting it together really with Golobov's intended strategy.
5:45
Speaker 4: Yeah, and whenever you start seeing time horizons that blow
5:49
Speaker 4: past the great financial crisis. In other words, none of
5:54
Speaker 4: this was as bad as during that period in time.
5:57
Speaker 4: Now you have to go back to 2002. This is
5:59
Speaker 4: a real danger zone. Because when you see this velocity
6:03
Speaker 4: of movement, that is the real concern. Because I've seen
6:06
Speaker 4: people say, oh, well, the moving average over the last
6:09
Speaker 4: 50 years is more like 6%. So it's not even
6:13
Speaker 4: that big of a deal. It's like, yeah, bro, because
6:14
Speaker 4: you're factoring in like 20 plus percent at some point's
6:19
Speaker 4: in the 1980s and like surging interest rates in the
6:21
Speaker 4: late 1970s. What we're talking about is that the entire
6:25
Speaker 4: system that we have developed over the last quarter century
6:29
Speaker 4: has relied on stable, low interest rates. And when you
6:31
Speaker 4: start moving with this amount of speed, it's going to
6:34
Speaker 4: start breaking things. What things it breaks, we don't exactly know.
6:37
Speaker 4: And it was very funny. Yesterday on the show, we
6:39
Speaker 4: talked about how this kind of affirmed one of the
6:42
Speaker 4: kind of finance bro posts that Mohammad Ghalibaf had made
6:47
Speaker 4: several months ago. And a couple hours later, he put
6:50
Speaker 4: out an even crazier one, crazier in the sense of, whoa,
6:52
Speaker 4: this kind of punches you in the face. But it's
6:55
Speaker 4: actually kind of useful to walk through it. So let's
6:58
Speaker 4: put up A2. This is the post that Goliboff put
7:01
Speaker 4: up yesterday. And you look at it and you're like, oh,
7:04
Speaker 4: my God, what are we doing here? But if you
7:07
Speaker 4: break it down, it actually is fairly straightforward. And so
7:12
Speaker 4: his formula here, Omega T. So basically means this is
7:18
Speaker 4: the stress on the house. And the house is a
7:22
Speaker 4: reference to when Scott Besson said, I'm the house now.
7:25
Speaker 4: He's a big trader. He used to trade against the house.
7:28
Speaker 4: He's saying, I'm the house. I can basically set the terms.
7:33
Speaker 4: And so I'm going to beat all of the traders.
7:36
Speaker 4: Since he said that, he is getting absolutely smashed by
7:40
Speaker 4: everybody who's trading against the house. Anyway, so what Goliboff
7:43
Speaker 4: is saying here So the ability of Iran to put
7:47
Speaker 4: stress on the house, he's arguing it's weight over capacity.
7:51
Speaker 4: Weight is basically the debt weight, like how much debt
7:55
Speaker 4: the United States is carrying over its capacity to hold
7:59
Speaker 4: that debt, plus Iran levers. In other words, plus what
8:03
Speaker 4: Iran is able to do. What he's saying here, because
8:06
Speaker 4: there's a division there, if the debt goes up, And
8:10
Speaker 4: our capacity to pay it goes down. It has kind
8:12
Speaker 4: of an exponential, amplified effect on us. So he's saying
8:18
Speaker 4: our debt weight, so the next formula here, our debt
8:20
Speaker 4: weight is going up because we're running into a maturity wall.
8:24
Speaker 4: We have a whole bunch of maturity wall means we've
8:26
Speaker 4: got all these two-year treasury bonds and others that are
8:29
Speaker 4: coming due that we're going to have to refinance at
8:32
Speaker 4: much higher rates.
8:32
Speaker 3: So that's going up.
8:34
Speaker 4: Pile of debt. That just means that our debt is
8:37
Speaker 4: gradually growing as well. Yields are going up. Yield velocity
8:40
Speaker 4: is growing up. That's all obvious. Now, the capacity of
8:44
Speaker 4: the US government to respond to it, he's saying, is
8:47
Speaker 4: going way down because there's less room for the Federal
8:51
Speaker 4: Reserve to mess around. Fed parking lot, he's talking about
8:54
Speaker 4: the way that the kind of repo market has collapsed.
8:56
Speaker 4: It used to be a lot of money market stuff.
8:58
Speaker 4: I mean, it used to be a lot of treasury bonds.
9:00
Speaker 4: There's not as much treasuries in there. There's no growth,
9:04
Speaker 4: he's saying. Our economy is kind of slumping along. Not
9:07
Speaker 4: exactly true.
9:08
Speaker 3: We're still growing a little bit, but not keeping up
9:11
Speaker 3: with inflation.
9:12
Speaker 4: Foreign buyers are way down. We've talked about that on
9:15
Speaker 4: the program. The Japanese, across the board. And then dealer capacity,
9:22
Speaker 4: that's basically big banks. That big banks don't have the
9:26
Speaker 4: capacity to buy treasuries like they did anymore because they
9:29
Speaker 4: are struggling as well because.
9:33
Speaker 4: As yields go up, the value of the treasuries that
9:37
Speaker 4: they hold goes down. And so they have then less,
9:40
Speaker 4: you know, basically capital that they can then dispense and
9:43
Speaker 4: then use. So his overall formula at the bottom there,
9:48
Speaker 4: Iran levers are going up, energy prices are going up,
9:53
Speaker 4: bonds are going up, and federal interest rates are going up.
9:57
Speaker 4: And his final formula at the bottom, he's saying that
10:01
Speaker 4: you're going to see the stress on the House rise
10:05
Speaker 4: from now until November, Election Day, and then rise through 2027.
10:10
Speaker 4: What's important about this is that he has his eye
10:14
Speaker 4: on the prize, which is what he's calling stress on
10:18
Speaker 4: the house, which is stress on you, stress on the
10:22
Speaker 4: American public. Whereas the US is focused on tactical things.
10:28
Speaker 4: So he's, in other words, Iran is focused on everything, omega.
10:32
Speaker 4: And we are looking at how many barrels of oil
10:35
Speaker 4: or how many tankers did we get through the Strait
10:38
Speaker 4: of Hormuz today? Disconnecting that from, well, what's the price
10:43
Speaker 4: of oil? And more importantly, what is the price of
10:46
Speaker 4: oil doing to the price of diesel? And what is
10:48
Speaker 4: the price of diesel doing to inflation that is driving
10:51
Speaker 4: up interest rates? Like we are so many layers away
10:56
Speaker 4: from fighting about what matters. It's almost comical. Like it, great,
11:00
Speaker 4: good for us that we're getting more oil through the
11:02
Speaker 4: Strait of Hormuz. Like that's an impressive operational feat on
11:06
Speaker 4: the part of the U.S.
11:07
Speaker 3: Navy. And we should acknowledge that.
11:10
Speaker 4: But if Iran is still able to keep oil prices
11:14
Speaker 4: over 100, diesel prices sky high, and interest rates threatening
11:18
Speaker 4: a global financial crisis, then what.
11:22
Speaker 3: We're able to accomplish is impressive and A for effort.
11:26
Speaker 3: And you showed up, you get a trophy. But like
11:29
Speaker 3: trying to win.
11:30
Speaker 4: And there's no evidence that we're winning here is what
11:33
Speaker 4: Ghalibaf is saying.
11:34
Speaker 2: That was a Ryan GPT analysis. Much better and more
11:38
Speaker 2: full than whenever I asked Claude, please translate this into
11:41
Speaker 2: plain English. But genuinely very helpful. Let's put A3 up
11:45
Speaker 2: there on the screen. There's been a lot of talk
11:48
Speaker 2: from the United States about how much control it has
11:51
Speaker 2: of the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, Tradewinds, which is a
11:55
Speaker 2: freight trade journal, said that several ships were attacked in
11:59
Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz as Iran had launched fresh strikes.
12:02
Speaker 2: Three tankers were impacted by, quote, unknown projectiles. So that
12:07
Speaker 2: really does kind of, you know, it really crystallizes, I think,
12:10
Speaker 2: Ryan's entire point, which is, look, we are spending inordinate
12:16
Speaker 2: amounts of money to get Hormuz traffic to around pre-war levels.
12:22
Speaker 2: It is vulnerable at all times to people with surface-to-air missiles,
12:27
Speaker 2: with sea mines, IRGC. They could keep that up for years.
12:32
Speaker 2: At the same time, it requires, as we remember, Marines
12:36
Speaker 2: who are boarding armed merchantships that are frequently being able
12:41
Speaker 2: to be targeted by cruise missiles, Black Hawk helicopters hovering
12:46
Speaker 2: as the cover of night as a convoy makes its
12:49
Speaker 2: way through. I mean, this is, you know, Sal- from
12:51
Speaker 2: what's going on with shipping, contextualize it, effectively is like
12:54
Speaker 2: a light World War II-esque strategy from the Atlantic Convoy.
12:59
Speaker 2: And that really hit home for me because that was
13:01
Speaker 2: at a time of existential crisis for the United Kingdom
13:05
Speaker 2: and for our millions of troops that were stationed in
13:08
Speaker 2: the UK and eventually who, you know, were landed on
13:11
Speaker 2: the European continent. This is not that, right? Like this
13:15
Speaker 2: is just to reopen this waterway. And there's no end
13:19
Speaker 2: strategic end in sight where Iran just goes, OK, we're
13:22
Speaker 2: done like the Nazis did whenever Berlin fell.
13:25
Speaker 5: Right.
13:25
Speaker 2: So let's put a four up here on the screen
13:28
Speaker 2: to show how they're still grappling with all of the
13:30
Speaker 2: immediate crises. This exactly gets to Ryan's point around diesel, where,
13:35
Speaker 2: by the way, you know, we just hit a new
13:36
Speaker 2: fresh all time high just yesterday. White House is holding
13:40
Speaker 2: crunch talks on diesel export ban as the midterms near.
13:44
Speaker 2: So even though Trump has waffled on diesel export bans,
13:48
Speaker 2: they say aides have presented the president with options including
13:50
Speaker 2: curbs on international diesel sales. So it might be kind
13:54
Speaker 2: of a light diesel ban as in like curbs or
13:58
Speaker 2: quotas as opposed to an all-out ban. Evaluating all options
14:01
Speaker 2: on the table, everything is geared towards lower domestic fuel
14:05
Speaker 2: prices And no decision has yet been made. Remember that
14:09
Speaker 2: even the Republican Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, basically said, guys,
14:13
Speaker 2: this would be an incredibly stupid idea and very counterproductive,
14:16
Speaker 2: something our friend Rory has been making the point of.
14:19
Speaker 2: And by the way, to his point, let's go to
14:21
Speaker 2: the next part. Just yesterday, U.S. diesel prices are now
14:26
Speaker 2: at a fresh all-time high above $ 224 a barrel. And
14:32
Speaker 2: it has something to do with the end of the month.
14:34
Speaker 2: When contracts expire, there's like a cycling element that happens
14:39
Speaker 2: for everything. A diesel nationally today is about a couple,
14:44
Speaker 2: like 10 cents, almost off of the real all-time retail
14:48
Speaker 2: high of 651. But you will soon find that barrel
14:52
Speaker 2: price reflected in what you are paying at the pump.
14:57
Speaker 2: And I just think, you know, generally I saw the
14:58
Speaker 2: White House kind of celebrating, or at least some Republican
15:02
Speaker 2: supporters of the war celebrating the fact you had a
15:05
Speaker 2: 10 cent reduction i'm like okay well it's more than
15:08
Speaker 2: double the entire price so you know we're going to
15:11
Speaker 2: see you see a few more 10 cent increments ryan
15:14
Speaker 2: before we start declaring victory over any of this and
15:18
Speaker 2: until you know eventually i was it was interesting ryan
15:21
Speaker 2: we weren't able to get it into our show but
15:23
Speaker 2: did you see yesterday was the first time in probably
15:27
Speaker 2: modern u.s history in the lifetime of many of our viewers,
15:30
Speaker 2: that there is not an American force, at least acknowledged,
15:34
Speaker 2: on the ground in Afghanistan or in Iraq. And that
15:37
Speaker 2: should have been something for celebration, except for the fact
15:42
Speaker 2: that we are currently at war with Iraq's neighbor, Iran,
15:45
Speaker 2: and that there are tens of thousands of troops that
15:48
Speaker 2: remain in the region actively engaged in combat for another
15:53
Speaker 2: stupid Middle Eastern war. So a cause that should have
15:56
Speaker 2: been for celebration. has instead just highlighted the idiocy of
16:00
Speaker 2: our establishment.
16:01
Speaker 4: And the timing is kind of ironic because, you know,
16:04
Speaker 4: the troops are there to protect oil supplies effectively and
16:06
Speaker 4: to guard the House of Saud. And right after Iraqi militias,
16:12
Speaker 4: apparently it was them who blew up Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline.
16:16
Speaker 3: It wasn't the Houthis. Apparently it came from the Iraqi side.
16:21
Speaker 3: We leave.
16:22
Speaker 4: It's like, well, when we were there, we weren't able
16:24
Speaker 4: to stop it anyway. So I guess I guess we
16:27
Speaker 4: might might as well move out. I kind of think
16:29
Speaker 4: there's a decent chance. I'm curious for your take that
16:32
Speaker 4: Trump actually does enact this at some point. It's October
16:35
Speaker 4: 1st today. You know, we're just under a month away.
16:38
Speaker 4: Mail in ballots are out in some places. They're going
16:41
Speaker 4: out across the country fairly soon. The election is basically
16:44
Speaker 4: coming upon us. And all the analysis is that you
16:48
Speaker 4: would get in most parts of the country a tick
16:51
Speaker 4: down in diesel prices today. in the immediate few weeks
16:55
Speaker 4: after the announcement, and then all hell breaks loose, you know,
16:59
Speaker 4: right after that. And Trump is, you know, he's a very,
17:02
Speaker 4: very much a live to fight another day kind of person.
17:04
Speaker 4: So if he can get a two week kind of reprieve, not,
17:09
Speaker 4: not total reprieve, but at least, you know, some breathing
17:12
Speaker 4: room and his advisors tell him, yeah, but then, you know,
17:16
Speaker 4: right after that, it's going to cause enormous problems. He's like, well,
17:20
Speaker 4: after that, what, like who, Trump does not care about
17:23
Speaker 4: down the road, whether you believe Tucker or not. And
17:26
Speaker 4: he's like, well, I'm going to die anyway. That's kind
17:29
Speaker 4: of his entire attitude towards life. Like, don't tell me
17:34
Speaker 4: about what's going to happen Friday. Just I'm fighting on Thursday.
17:40
Speaker 2: The other thing is, what do we know about this
17:42
Speaker 2: current administration? Trump is obsessed with what rich people say.
17:45
Speaker 2: And every rich person in America who's involved in the
17:48
Speaker 2: oil business is like, please don't do this. You will
17:50
Speaker 2: irreparably damage our business. And you also look, I mean,
17:55
Speaker 2: I don't think it cares entirely what foreign leaders say. But,
17:58
Speaker 2: you know, the Japanese and the South Koreans and all
18:01
Speaker 2: of these other countries are putting on a full court
18:04
Speaker 2: press behind the scenes, from what I understand. basically saying, sir,
18:08
Speaker 2: do not do this. You will destroy our modern economy.
18:13
Speaker 2: And you will basically have to send us out on
18:15
Speaker 2: the black market or to have to try and buy
18:18
Speaker 2: diesel from Russia or from any of these other countries.
18:22
Speaker 2: If you're going to do this to us, it will
18:23
Speaker 2: severely damage our relationships. Not to mention Europe. I believe
18:28
Speaker 2: it's like 41% or something. I just saw a number
18:31
Speaker 2: in which they're heavily reliant on on imports. Europe right now,
18:35
Speaker 2: so the United States is the diesel refiner of last
18:37
Speaker 2: resort because Russia was taken offline and Ukraine has even
18:41
Speaker 2: more taken their diesel exports offline. There's a few other markets,
18:45
Speaker 2: but right now it's a very easy place to do
18:47
Speaker 2: business with the petrodollar, with existing business relationships. And as
18:51
Speaker 2: I've always said here, we're going to talk about Texas.
18:54
Speaker 2: One of the reasons why I don't think that the
18:56
Speaker 2: economy is as much of a drag is that there
18:58
Speaker 2: is a significant part of the state, I'm from there,
19:01
Speaker 2: who are actually making more money than they ever have
19:04
Speaker 2: in their entire life. They're making generational wealth in the
19:07
Speaker 2: city of Houston. And at the port of Houston, these guys,
19:10
Speaker 2: I mean, they will retire in the next couple of
19:13
Speaker 2: years only because of what's happened here with the Iran war.
19:16
Speaker 2: I mean, when you are a ship freight and you
19:19
Speaker 2: can charge an oil freighter, you're charging a million dollars
19:23
Speaker 2: a day. You can pay off your entire ship according
19:27
Speaker 2: to Sal, in a few runs, and you're in the
19:30
Speaker 2: black for the rest of your life when you previously
19:33
Speaker 2: had thought this is like a 30-year fixed rate type
19:36
Speaker 2: mortgage situation. So that is a fundamental difference, I think,
19:40
Speaker 2: just regionally in our economy. But it does highlight the
19:44
Speaker 2: squeezing of what's happening. Put A6 on the screen because
19:47
Speaker 2: this shows what's happened in the European market. markets, where
19:51
Speaker 2: Russia just yesterday extended the diesel export ban until the
19:55
Speaker 2: end of October. There's a couple of ways that you
19:57
Speaker 2: could read this. Number one, Russia's obviously pissed at Trump. Russia,
20:02
Speaker 2: they don't mind high diesel prices right now, as much
20:05
Speaker 2: as it's also hurting their economy and the Ukrainian drone attacks,
20:08
Speaker 2: which continued as of yesterday. But overall, this is putting
20:11
Speaker 2: tremendous pressure on the diesel market. The other is that
20:15
Speaker 2: the Ukrainians have just done so much damage, they may
20:17
Speaker 2: not be able to export, period. And already, we're actually
20:21
Speaker 2: seeing some of the consequences of this in our own economy.
20:24
Speaker 2: Let's put A5B, guys, I sent this this morning, about
20:28
Speaker 2: how American truckers, we actually have 16 trucking companies now
20:31
Speaker 2: so far, which have filed for bankruptcy as diesel costs soar.
20:36
Speaker 2: And everybody is is going to start seeing this. You
20:39
Speaker 2: will see diesel surcharges. I don't know, like if lawn companies,
20:44
Speaker 2: I heard a story of lawnmowers, people who are hiring
20:48
Speaker 2: out for yard service just being like, oh, wow, our
20:51
Speaker 2: bill went up. And the company's like, yeah, man, we
20:53
Speaker 2: have diesel costs. We have trucks and things that we
20:56
Speaker 2: have to do. And this will obviously show up in
20:59
Speaker 2: overall inflation. And so tying it back to that Goluboff
21:02
Speaker 2: tweet where he put out his complicated formula The general
21:06
Speaker 2: TLDR was is he's like, look, the yields are going up.
21:09
Speaker 2: And according to his formula and also according to a
21:13
Speaker 2: lot of the current analysis is that the bond market
21:16
Speaker 2: is not going to recover just because oil comes down.
21:21
Speaker 2: Now that we kind of are in this runaway government
21:24
Speaker 2: spending cycle, in addition to the loss of U.S. prestige,
21:29
Speaker 2: in addition to the massive boom in artificial intelligence spending,
21:33
Speaker 2: you have created this kind of runaway bond problem where
21:39
Speaker 2: even the diesel industry, I was just reading yesterday, they
21:42
Speaker 2: told the White House, they're like, this entire thing could
21:46
Speaker 2: end literally today. And for a full year, diesel will
21:51
Speaker 2: not return to where it was just because of the
21:53
Speaker 2: damage that's now been done to the market.
21:56
Speaker 3: And that's without China.
21:57
Speaker 2: So if China reenters, we're going even more sky high
22:00
Speaker 2: than $ 224 a barrel.
22:02
Speaker 3: And quick side question, why is.
22:05
Speaker 4: Why are Democrats doing so well in Texas, despite the
22:08
Speaker 4: fact that parts of it are absolutely booming?
22:11
Speaker 2: Well, first of all, candidate quality.
22:14
Speaker 3: Great question. We'll talk about this in our midterm block.
22:16
Speaker 2: But I mean, something that we have highlighted here on
22:18
Speaker 2: the show is you could make an argument polling wise
22:21
Speaker 2: that the state of Iowa is more in play than
22:23
Speaker 2: the state of Texas.
22:24
Speaker 3: Yeah. And I think that's true.
22:25
Speaker 2: What's happening in I think that diesel is the story where.
22:29
Speaker 2: People in Texas, there's a lot of money down there.
22:31
Speaker 2: There's AI capex spend boom. I mean, there's a lot
22:33
Speaker 2: of rich people that are down in Texas. Whereas in Iowa,
22:37
Speaker 2: you have a farming-reliant economy, and you've been doubly screwed
22:41
Speaker 2: by tariffs and your high diesel prices. You don't produce
22:45
Speaker 2: diesel in Iowa. You are a consumer, largely, of diesel.
22:48
Speaker 2: And so that kind of highlights. That's why I think
22:50
Speaker 2: there will be a limited amount of regional disparity. And
22:55
Speaker 2: it's kind of like the bell curve, where you know,
22:57
Speaker 2: where you fall on that really matters. And I feel
23:00
Speaker 2: like Iowa is on the tail end of a state
23:03
Speaker 2: most to be negatively affected by two concrete policies of
23:08
Speaker 2: choice by the Trump administration. Last thing, A7, Ryan, I
23:13
Speaker 2: think you wanted to hit this, where, I mean, this
23:15
Speaker 2: is just kind of like weird behavior from the United States. Apparently,
23:18
Speaker 2: Marco Rubio ordered the Iranian delegation to leave the country.
23:22
Speaker 2: after the United Nations. Do you know anything about this?
23:25
Speaker 3: It's very odd.
23:26
Speaker 4: Yeah, because I can tell you for a fact that
23:28
Speaker 4: they were planning on staying for, I don't know how long,
23:32
Speaker 4: but well into this week because I was in talks
23:35
Speaker 4: with interviewing Arakshi while he was in New York. And
23:40
Speaker 4: there was no plan that he was leaving on Monday.
23:43
Speaker 4: And so according to this reporting, which I understand to
23:47
Speaker 4: be true, after they hit some impasse in negotiations, Rubio
23:51
Speaker 4: was like, just, all right, everybody out.
23:53
Speaker 3: Like, just go. And this was after.
23:57
Speaker 4: They had already denied visas last minute to a whole
24:01
Speaker 4: bunch of kind of high level, not just support staff,
24:05
Speaker 4: but very high level members of the Iranian delegation. And
24:08
Speaker 4: I know that they were scrambling because like the people
24:11
Speaker 4: that had all the different contact lists and everything, they
24:14
Speaker 4: were blocked from coming. And so the entire delegation was
24:19
Speaker 4: kind of a mess. And then they put on all
24:21
Speaker 4: these bizarre restrictions about what they're allowed to do while
24:25
Speaker 4: they're here. Just a lot of kind of petty humiliation,
24:29
Speaker 4: which the U.S. had kind of, at least in spirit,
24:33
Speaker 4: committed not to do when the U.S.
24:35
Speaker 3: Agreed to host the United Nations.
24:37
Speaker 4: To say, like, this is not your pet that you're
24:41
Speaker 4: allowed to use for your own purposes. It was supposed
24:43
Speaker 4: to be, this is for the entire world. And we're
24:47
Speaker 4: going to base it in New York, but you're going
24:49
Speaker 4: to allow people to come there who you're in a
24:51
Speaker 4: cold war with, you're in a hot war with, and
24:54
Speaker 4: you're going to be cool about it.
24:56
Speaker 3: And we're not being very cool about it.
24:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, Ryan, I'm trying to do a history. When is
25:02
Speaker 2: the last time that the U.S. was at war with
25:05
Speaker 2: a sovereign nation recognized by the United Nations, where basically
25:12
Speaker 2: the counterparty lasted long enough to be able to have
25:15
Speaker 2: a diplomatic presence in the United States. I just asked Claude. Apparently,
25:21
Speaker 2: North Vietnam was never in the UN.
25:23
Speaker 3: Maybe Libya?
25:25
Speaker 2: I'd have to go back and check.
25:27
Speaker 3: Maybe Gaddafi had somebody at the UN. Yeah, he probably
25:31
Speaker 3: missed that. Right, exactly. They certainly must have had somebody
25:33
Speaker 3: at the UN. Iraq. Right. Iraq, right.
25:36
Speaker 2: But then that collapsed in three weeks. So I'm like,
25:39
Speaker 2: this kind of is an unprecedented situation. It By the way,
25:43
Speaker 2: actually was, as you know, Ryan, a lot of people
25:45
Speaker 2: warned about this whenever they put the United Nations in
25:48
Speaker 2: New York. They were like, why would we put it here?
25:50
Speaker 2: What if we have problems with the United States? So
25:54
Speaker 2: maybe they were right, and especially when you're not a
25:56
Speaker 2: nuclear-armed power like the Soviet Union.
25:58
Speaker 3: Okay, let's get to terror.
26:02
Speaker 2: Turning now to two of these alleged terror incidents, we
26:05
Speaker 2: want to give everybody an update on that Israeli hijack situation.
26:08
Speaker 2: Let's put this video up. Up on the screen, multiple
26:12
Speaker 2: video released from many of the passengers who were on
26:16
Speaker 2: this fly Dubai flight, where the details officially that have
26:20
Speaker 2: come out describe two pilots in the cockpit. The co-pilot
26:25
Speaker 2: allegedly tried to put the plane into a dive while
26:29
Speaker 2: stabbing the main pilot. According to the Israeli officials, the
26:34
Speaker 2: pilot who was stabbed was able to fight off his co-pilot,
26:38
Speaker 2: and actually opened the cockpit door, which enabled both two
26:43
Speaker 2: reserve pilots who were on the plane to come in
26:46
Speaker 2: and safely land it, in addition to some of the
26:49
Speaker 2: passengers to actually secure the co-pilot who had been trying
26:55
Speaker 2: to crash the plane. Apparently they did it with a
26:57
Speaker 2: wired headphone, so a lot of the wired headphone community
27:00
Speaker 2: is speaking up on that one. One of the survivors
27:04
Speaker 2: of that attack met with Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday, immediately
27:08
Speaker 2: after returning to Israel. Guys, I could put that video
27:12
Speaker 2: on the screen. He described it saying, quote, I pulled
27:15
Speaker 2: the yoke up and I stopped the plane's dive. It's
27:17
Speaker 2: lucky I had from aviation experience from the Mayday air
27:22
Speaker 2: crash series, which is, I believe, on YouTube or in
27:26
Speaker 2: some video format. And so, Ryan, I know you and
27:30
Speaker 2: Emily covered a lot of this yesterday. Of course, you
27:34
Speaker 2: also have good sources and others. I don't blame people.
27:37
Speaker 2: There's a lot of skepticism around this. I don't, I mean,
27:41
Speaker 2: I certainly do as well whenever it comes to at least,
27:44
Speaker 2: you know, obviously any precipitating attack which could cause a
27:48
Speaker 2: major international incident. I don't just say that because it's Israel.
27:50
Speaker 2: We're literally about to talk about this with Iran and
27:53
Speaker 2: the UK as well. I'm curious where your head is
27:55
Speaker 2: at and any reporting or any other details that you
27:58
Speaker 2: think are relevant.
27:59
Speaker 4: What's so interesting is that if you I haven't seen
28:05
Speaker 4: a poll of the American public. The sense that I
28:07
Speaker 4: get is so many people are expressing so much skepticism. Obviously,
28:11
Speaker 4: there was a knife fight, or at least there was
28:14
Speaker 4: some kind of fight with sharp objects that led to
28:16
Speaker 4: an enormous set of injuries to the other pilot.
28:22
Speaker 3: Clearly, the plane plummeted.
28:26
Speaker 4: All of these things happen, but people are very much
28:29
Speaker 4: questioning the timing of this, how did this come about?
28:38
Speaker 4: We've kind of entered this period where whatever news event
28:43
Speaker 4: comes about, you're going to get a huge number of
28:46
Speaker 4: people who are like, at minimum, waiting to see, waiting
28:50
Speaker 4: to hear more information about this before jumping to any
28:55
Speaker 4: conclusions on it.
28:56
Speaker 3: I don't know. What are you hearing?
28:58
Speaker 2: Well, you know, I haven't heard anything specific. Obviously, the
29:01
Speaker 2: Mayday crash one was highlighted to me by a lot
29:03
Speaker 2: of people. I read it just because, I mean, it
29:05
Speaker 2: is plausible. Of course, it happened, as you said, the
29:08
Speaker 2: passenger is literally covered in blood and immediately met with Netanyahu.
29:13
Speaker 2: Kind of where I fall on this is that I
29:15
Speaker 2: do think all of the details described did happen just
29:19
Speaker 2: in terms of the way that it's come out. And
29:21
Speaker 2: I think that Netanyahu is exploiting it for domestic political
29:24
Speaker 2: purposes because he is the head in or because he's
29:27
Speaker 2: going into knife fight election. And this is kind of
29:30
Speaker 2: the whole reason and pitch that he's making to.
29:33
Speaker 3: The Israeli people.
29:34
Speaker 2: So it's a lot like October 7th, where you know,
29:37
Speaker 2: you have a horrific situation, which then, you know, kind
29:41
Speaker 2: of morphs and turns into something for bigger domestic political purposes.
29:45
Speaker 2: For example, Bibi had actually previously even said in his
29:50
Speaker 2: campaign speech, we can put the next one up here
29:53
Speaker 2: on the screen, we have indications that ahead of the elections,
29:56
Speaker 2: our enemies will try to attack us. So Look, I mean,
30:00
Speaker 2: these people, again, are trying to portray this as a
30:03
Speaker 2: false flag and all of that. And I am I
30:06
Speaker 2: remain deeply skeptical of many international terror incidents whenever they're
30:10
Speaker 2: immediately described. Just because you and I have done this
30:13
Speaker 2: for long enough where we know that the details all
30:15
Speaker 2: dramatically change in a matter of 24 to 48 hours.
30:19
Speaker 2: But generally where I land is I do think, you know,
30:22
Speaker 2: mostly what's described has happened. Just there were children on board.
30:25
Speaker 2: You know, they're screaming. Obviously, it's a horrific situation.
30:27
Speaker 3: There's damage.
30:28
Speaker 2: To the plane, the landing in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Saudi,
30:32
Speaker 2: who also, I mean, I don't think they have a
30:33
Speaker 2: ton of incentive to comply, all basically confirming many of
30:37
Speaker 2: the details. But largely, I think, of course, in many ways,
30:40
Speaker 2: like United States politicians, any politicians, a security incident like
30:44
Speaker 2: this can be a rallying cry. And of course, hijacking
30:47
Speaker 2: airplanes is something that kind of harkens back to a
30:50
Speaker 2: long period of Israeli history, both in terms of El
30:54
Speaker 2: Al flights and other incidents that have happened many times
30:58
Speaker 2: over the last 50 or 60 years, in particular why
31:01
Speaker 2: it's actually hitting home quite hard in Israel. But anyway,
31:05
Speaker 2: we wanted to make sure that we showed everybody all
31:07
Speaker 2: of that. Let's also then get to this UK Fairford situation,
31:12
Speaker 2: where frankly, I think there's a hell of a lot
31:13
Speaker 2: more questions as of right now, with the Prime Minister,
31:17
Speaker 2: Andy Burnham, now saying that they have strong indications that
31:22
Speaker 2: Iran was connected to this plot.
31:24
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
31:25
Speaker 5: Strong indications that Iran played a part in what happened
31:29
Speaker 5: over the weekend at RAF Fairford. But of course, it
31:33
Speaker 5: remains an ongoing, complex and serious police investigation. And of course,
31:38
Speaker 5: we are working closely with our colleagues in the United
31:41
Speaker 5: States of America. So it's ongoing. I have held a
31:46
Speaker 5: COBRA meeting as I've been here at the conference in Liverpool.
31:49
Speaker 5: We are on top of it in every possible way imaginable.
31:53
Speaker 5: Police in Gloucestershire, our counter-terrorism police have done an outstanding job.
31:59
Speaker 5: I thank them for that. We will say more in
32:02
Speaker 5: due course, but we can confirm our belief that we
32:06
Speaker 5: believe Iran to have played a part.
32:09
Speaker 3: All right.
32:09
Speaker 2: So strong indications. And yet again, here are the details.
32:13
Speaker 2: You're like, hold on a second. Let's put the next
32:15
Speaker 2: one up here on the screen. Apparently, one of the
32:19
Speaker 2: guys in this so-called plot actually called 999, which is
32:25
Speaker 2: their emergency line, before the arrests were made at the base. Now,
32:30
Speaker 2: here's the problem, Ryan, is that the current narrative from
32:33
Speaker 2: a lot of the press is is that that's why
32:36
Speaker 2: these suspects were apprehended. But you and I know that
32:40
Speaker 2: actually what happened is that this farming woman was driving
32:45
Speaker 2: down the road in the middle of the night and
32:47
Speaker 2: that she's the one who called the police. And so
32:51
Speaker 2: what they're trying to spin it as is that this
32:54
Speaker 2: guy had called the police.
32:55
Speaker 3: He got cold feet.
32:57
Speaker 2: And had called them and alerted them and maybe they
33:00
Speaker 2: were watching. But it kind of obfuscates the exact details
33:04
Speaker 2: through which the arrest went down in the first place
33:08
Speaker 2: by this woman driving down the road in midnight who
33:10
Speaker 2: saw these sketchy vans. We also know for a fact
33:14
Speaker 2: that there have been no explosives found, that it's all
33:17
Speaker 2: just been petrol, as they call it. We don't know
33:19
Speaker 2: if it was diesel or whether it was gasoline, which
33:23
Speaker 2: would validate a lot of the speculation in the U.K.,
33:26
Speaker 2: that actually it was just a bunch of general thugs
33:29
Speaker 2: trying to steal diesel while the diesel price is so high.
33:32
Speaker 2: So look, the UK prime minister saying this obviously is
33:35
Speaker 2: a big deal, but a lot of the details still
33:37
Speaker 2: remain very strange.
33:39
Speaker 1: Yeah.
33:39
Speaker 4: And if you listen to Burnham and you read all
33:42
Speaker 4: the news reports in Europe about it, they keep saying,
33:45
Speaker 4: now we have suspicions that Iran and Marco Rubio said
33:49
Speaker 4: that foreign powers would be involved with it, quote it,
33:52
Speaker 4: or what happened at the.
33:54
Speaker 3: It's like, What? What happened? Like, what's the it here?
33:59
Speaker 4: The it, three, five lads in like three vans were
34:04
Speaker 4: outside this base and this lady called the cops on them.
34:09
Speaker 3: They got arrested.
34:11
Speaker 4: They found that they had petrol in their vans and
34:15
Speaker 4: then nothing else. Like, so what's the it that Iran
34:19
Speaker 4: was like, take a bunch of petrol and pour it
34:22
Speaker 4: on the chain link fence outside the base and then
34:26
Speaker 4: light it up?
34:29
Speaker 3: You've looked into this more than I have, I think.
34:31
Speaker 4: What is the it that Iran is allegedly supposed to
34:34
Speaker 4: have been involved with here? If there's no explosives, there's
34:41
Speaker 4: nothing that ties them to any break-in effort.
34:43
Speaker 3: What's the it?
34:45
Speaker 2: Let's put the next one up there, guys, which really
34:47
Speaker 2: highlights Ryan's questions here. So the mystery over the base
34:50
Speaker 2: as police find petrol, but no exclusive mired in confusion.
34:54
Speaker 2: A quantity of petrol was found in the vehicles acting
34:58
Speaker 2: suspiciously in a major incident. And again, you know, you
35:02
Speaker 2: have this guy who apparently called the police on himself,
35:07
Speaker 2: or at least again, that's what the Wall Street Journal
35:09
Speaker 2: and some of the other Western media reported. are reporting,
35:12
Speaker 2: but it doesn't comport with the fact that the whole
35:14
Speaker 2: thing was busted because this woman was driving down the
35:18
Speaker 2: road in the middle of the night. By the way,
35:21
Speaker 2: Iran has responded. B8, we can put their statement up
35:24
Speaker 2: here on the screen. They say, this is from their
35:27
Speaker 2: foreign minister, Arachi, Prime Minister Burnham says the UK government
35:31
Speaker 2: can confirm our belief that we believe Iran to have
35:34
Speaker 2: played a part in the Fairford incident. I can confirm
35:37
Speaker 2: Iran's belief that releasing supposed terror suspects working for foreign
35:41
Speaker 2: states really says it all.
35:43
Speaker 3: You are barking up the wrong tree.
35:45
Speaker 2: So a denial, or I guess of denial in part,
35:48
Speaker 2: that this was in any way an Iranian sort of
35:51
Speaker 2: alleged attack.
35:52
Speaker 6: I don't know.
35:52
Speaker 2: I mean, you can't really trust either of the figures
35:55
Speaker 2: that were involved here. I will say, you know, there's
35:58
Speaker 2: been a lot of skepticism and I remain firmly in it.
36:00
Speaker 2: But I do want to give, you know, I want
36:02
Speaker 2: to give credit to Trita Parsi, who immediately in the
36:05
Speaker 2: aftermath did say, he's like, look, the IRGC did say
36:10
Speaker 2: that many of these foreign bases, which give, you know,
36:14
Speaker 2: basing rights or, you know, or allow the United States
36:19
Speaker 2: to take off from there to bomb Iran, are now
36:22
Speaker 2: vulnerable to attack. In the immediate aftermath, I immediately said
36:27
Speaker 2: I didn't think it would make a lot of sense.
36:29
Speaker 3: I thought it would be absolutely.
36:30
Speaker 2: Shocking because to attack an airbase in the middle of
36:34
Speaker 2: the U.K., would almost certainly bring the UK more into
36:38
Speaker 2: the war, which is not in Iran's direct interest. And
36:41
Speaker 2: it would also, you know, rally around the flag. And
36:44
Speaker 2: I can only guess if the Iran war is double digit,
36:47
Speaker 2: you know, or like, you know, triple digit, whatever popular,
36:50
Speaker 2: unpopular in the United States, I can only imagine what
36:53
Speaker 2: it is in the UK, especially with the labor government
36:56
Speaker 2: that barely wants to be involved in this in the
36:58
Speaker 2: first place. And this would only give them the security
37:01
Speaker 2: reason to do so. So that's just my general thinking, Ryan.
37:05
Speaker 6: Right.
37:05
Speaker 4: And they bailed these five men out. Um, and we
37:08
Speaker 4: don't know yet like what the guy told the police. It's,
37:11
Speaker 4: there's some extraordinary gaps in, in what they're telling the
37:15
Speaker 4: public because that's rather essential. Like what did he say
37:20
Speaker 4: when he called? Uh, and, and your point.
37:22
Speaker 3: Is a good one.
37:22
Speaker 4: Iran has very deliberately and conspicuously not attacked Israel because
37:27
Speaker 4: they liked the fact that Israel is currently not attacking them.
37:31
Speaker 4: They can just go one-on-one with the U S here. Uh,
37:35
Speaker 4: launching a terror attack inside the UK with gasoline or
37:40
Speaker 4: diesel or whatever, it's not going to have any effect.
37:44
Speaker 4: It's not actually going to shut the base down. A
37:46
Speaker 4: couple of guys with vans. All it's going to do, yeah,
37:49
Speaker 4: is heighten the UK's willingness to participate in the war
37:53
Speaker 4: against Iran.
37:54
Speaker 3: So yeah, it doesn't make sense. Who knows?
37:57
Speaker 4: But so far, the quote-unquote major incident that keeps getting
38:02
Speaker 4: described has not actually been described, like what we're talking
38:06
Speaker 4: about here.
38:08
Speaker 3: Totally agree. All right, let's get to midterms.
38:13
Speaker 2: Turning now to the midterms, some crazy leaked audio from
38:17
Speaker 2: Ken Paxton, the Senate candidate in Texas, where he says
38:21
Speaker 2: that Trump's midterm convention in Texas actually dragged his numbers down.
38:26
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
38:28
Speaker 6: But do you feel like he's a little.
38:29
Speaker 1: Bit of a drag?
38:31
Speaker 6: So to be honest with you, the numbers, when we
38:34
Speaker 6: did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody said we dropped.
38:38
Speaker 4: By now, yeah, not good.
38:43
Speaker 6: I wish there was something to turn that around.
38:45
Speaker 5: It obviously happened.
38:47
Speaker 3: It's a little muffled there.
38:48
Speaker 2: To be honest with you, when we did that with
38:50
Speaker 2: the midterm convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody's numbers dropped. Yeah,
38:53
Speaker 2: not good, as Ken says in the most eloquent language
38:56
Speaker 2: that he possibly can, as usual, that we can expect.
38:59
Speaker 3: From him.
39:00
Speaker 2: Trump was even asked about this in the Oval Office.
39:02
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
39:04
Speaker 2: President, there was a report that Ken Paxton was complaining
39:07
Speaker 2: about your midterm convention and he felt like it hurt him.
39:10
Speaker 3: What's your reaction to that?
39:12
Speaker 6: Well, I haven't heard that, but I can tell you
39:14
Speaker 6: that the convention was amazing. As you probably know, we
39:17
Speaker 6: had 107 million views.
39:18
Speaker 1: Think of that. We had over 100 million views, I
39:20
Speaker 1: think 107. The NFL had 25 million views. So we
39:28
Speaker 1: had four times what the NFL did.
39:30
Speaker 6: And, you know, it's possible that could be true. I
39:33
Speaker 6: don't know if it's possible, but other people were helped greatly.
39:36
Speaker 6: This was a national convention, midterm convention, never been done before.
39:42
Speaker 6: And we went directly against the NFL. It was just
39:45
Speaker 6: the timing worked out that way. And we had 107
39:49
Speaker 6: million versus 25 million views, which was a big story
39:54
Speaker 6: in the entertainment world and sports world.
39:57
Speaker 2: It would have been a big story if literally any
39:59
Speaker 2: of it was true. It appears that the real number, Ryan,
40:02
Speaker 2: is roughly 3 million. And I actually even called that
40:05
Speaker 2: at the time. I'm like, you guys are really going
40:06
Speaker 2: head to head against the NFL opening weekend. I'm like,
40:10
Speaker 2: I don't know. Not really in the advisory category. If
40:14
Speaker 2: you actually want to get anybody.
40:15
Speaker 3: To watch it.
40:16
Speaker 2: My guess is they probably went on Twitter and counted
40:19
Speaker 2: all of those Twitter and all that and tick tock
40:22
Speaker 2: and all of that together, which I'm sure the NFL
40:25
Speaker 2: could probably do that too. And that would put that
40:27
Speaker 2: around a billion.
40:31
Speaker 3: Um, yeah, right. Uh, crazy stuff, man.
40:34
Speaker 2: Uh, you know, generally, I mean, have you done, I
40:36
Speaker 2: know you've, you've looked a little bit, uh, into the
40:39
Speaker 2: Texas race with Paxson and with Tallarico, uh, What does
40:44
Speaker 2: Tallarico world generally feel right now going into the last
40:49
Speaker 2: stretch of the election?
40:50
Speaker 4: That everything is coming together in all of the ways
40:55
Speaker 4: that they needed to come together. Like this was always
40:58
Speaker 4: going to be and still is a huge uphill climb.
41:03
Speaker 4: Texas is just so structurally difficult for Democrats to win in.
41:08
Speaker 4: But they needed Paxton to win first off. They needed
41:14
Speaker 4: they needed Tallarico to win. So they, you know, they
41:17
Speaker 4: got the matchup that they wanted. And even then, if
41:20
Speaker 4: if Trump had stuck with the MOU and we were
41:24
Speaker 4: looking at mortgage rates at six percent and gas prices
41:28
Speaker 4: at three dollars and diesel a little bit more affordable
41:31
Speaker 4: and the oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz without
41:34
Speaker 4: the necessity of, you know, SEAL Team six, you know,
41:37
Speaker 4: dragging every every tanker through.
41:40
Speaker 3: Then he probably gets close. But. but not all the
41:45
Speaker 3: way there.
41:46
Speaker 4: But with this complete collapse, it's adding to all of
41:52
Speaker 4: the rest of the anger at him. We can put
41:54
Speaker 4: up this next element here, the New York Times one, C4.
41:58
Speaker 4: New York Times sent people down to the border and
42:01
Speaker 4: got some of these classic interviews that people just love
42:06
Speaker 4: of talking to a woman who cast her first ballot ever,
42:13
Speaker 4: in 2024 for Donald Trump, but two years later, after
42:16
Speaker 4: her brother was deported, she feels angry and betrayed. Also
42:20
Speaker 4: then talks to a guy who runs a construction company
42:24
Speaker 4: who can't find workers, a pastor who led his congregation
42:30
Speaker 4: to the polls for Republicans, who is now just trying
42:35
Speaker 4: to get them to even continue participating in politics because
42:38
Speaker 4: they're so livid about.
42:43
Speaker 3: Things that Trump did.
42:45
Speaker 4: A lot of these voters along the West Texas border
42:49
Speaker 4: thought that the border was out of control.
42:52
Speaker 3: They agreed with Trump on that.
42:55
Speaker 4: They're not necessarily hostile to the whole build the wall
42:58
Speaker 4: argument that he was making. They did not think that
43:01
Speaker 4: that also meant that he was going to send ice
43:04
Speaker 4: throughout all of the communities and kind of sow the
43:08
Speaker 4: amount of terror that And when it comes to the,
43:11
Speaker 4: you know, construction companies, you, they, you know, I don't
43:14
Speaker 4: know what, I don't know how they thought this was
43:17
Speaker 4: going to go for them, but however they thought it
43:19
Speaker 4: was going to go, uh, it, it went differently and they,
43:24
Speaker 4: you know, Trump shocked the world by winning a majority
43:27
Speaker 4: of Hispanic voters along the border.
43:29
Speaker 3: It reshaped his entire coalition.
43:32
Speaker 4: It changed the game when it came to the demographic
43:35
Speaker 4: destiny of the Democrats. And, and what Republicans believed was possible,
43:41
Speaker 4: opened up this possibility of permanent majority coalition around kind
43:46
Speaker 4: of law and order. And in a year and a half,
43:51
Speaker 4: he squandered the entire thing. And if he loses Hispanic
43:55
Speaker 4: voters along the border by 30 points, then Tallarico is
43:59
Speaker 4: in play. Now, you're the local correspondent down there.
44:02
Speaker 3: What's your sense?
44:05
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I haven't been I actually haven't been down
44:07
Speaker 2: to South Texas in quite some time, but it is
44:10
Speaker 2: a fascinating place. I will say in this particular case,
44:14
Speaker 2: you know, to the extent, let's say I'm angry with
44:16
Speaker 2: Trump or a lot of people around Trump. It's for
44:18
Speaker 2: not for doing things that, you know, they said that
44:20
Speaker 2: they weren't going to do. I do find it really
44:23
Speaker 2: difficult to square voting for Donald Trump when your brother
44:26
Speaker 2: is an illegal, illegal alien present in the nation and
44:31
Speaker 2: then to be upset whenever said person gets deported. I will, look,
44:36
Speaker 2: I'll give her her due. She says, quote, I knew
44:38
Speaker 2: he was going to start deporting people. He was going
44:40
Speaker 2: to go after bad criminals, true hardcore criminals, rapists and killers.
44:44
Speaker 2: She thought of her six children, but when her brother
44:46
Speaker 2: was taken into immigration detention after a schedule check and
44:49
Speaker 2: she felt like it was a punch in the gut,
44:51
Speaker 2: I didn't think it would target people who were here.
44:54
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm sorry.
44:55
Speaker 2: Like that's just, and she even says, I saw the
44:58
Speaker 2: sign mass deportation and I didn't believe that it would apply.
45:03
Speaker 2: I mean, in this particular case, man, I'm like you
45:06
Speaker 2: got to learn how to read. I mean, I don't
45:08
Speaker 2: think that it was all that difficult to understand what
45:11
Speaker 2: the sign said or exactly what was explicitly laid out
45:16
Speaker 2: in the speeches and others.
45:17
Speaker 3: You can dunk on me, you know, all you want.
45:19
Speaker 2: And I think that's fair, uh, in some cases, but
45:22
Speaker 2: like in this, in this particular case, like, you know,
45:25
Speaker 2: same with the construction people who are like, Oh, well,
45:28
Speaker 2: it's going to be harder for me to hire illegal
45:30
Speaker 2: aliens to work for my construction company, I'm like, that
45:32
Speaker 2: was one of the explicit goals of the deportation and
45:36
Speaker 2: administration strategy in order to force you to raise wages
45:42
Speaker 2: and actually hire people who are here present in the
45:45
Speaker 2: country legally. So all of that said, I guess it
45:48
Speaker 2: just confirms my theory that the median voter basically hears
45:52
Speaker 2: whatever they want to hear in terms of how it
45:55
Speaker 2: will affect them. Because she does say, like you said,
45:58
Speaker 2: that they were worried about this string of people who
46:00
Speaker 2: were coming across the border and they were upset about that.
46:04
Speaker 2: But what they also say really is beyond that, it's
46:07
Speaker 2: the economic situation. Quote, the economic struggles seem to have
46:11
Speaker 2: only gotten worse, shaped by the same forces at play
46:13
Speaker 2: in the rest of the economy.
46:14
Speaker 3: Construction has slowed.
46:15
Speaker 2: Small business owners say they lost customers and restaurants and
46:19
Speaker 2: construction sites, church lobbies. Optimism about the second Trump administration
46:22
Speaker 2: has curdled into a deep sense of abandonment.
46:25
Speaker 3: Not all of it, again, related to ICE.
46:27
Speaker 2: A lot of it still related to diesel, and to gas,
46:30
Speaker 2: which while I said previously in our show that gas
46:33
Speaker 2: prices were not as high in Texas, I think they're
46:37
Speaker 2: barely around $ 4 a gallon compared to the rest of
46:40
Speaker 2: the nation around $ 4. 40 or $ 4. 50. $ 4 a gallon is
46:43
Speaker 2: still very, very high. And so, look, I mean, I
46:47
Speaker 2: think you just have a community of people who have
46:50
Speaker 2: swung so wildly in the last 10 years that they
46:54
Speaker 2: are always up for grabs. And that's why any idea
46:56
Speaker 2: of a permanent... Majority is foolish. One of my books,
47:00
Speaker 2: which is over there right now, not behind me, but
47:02
Speaker 2: I should put it up, is the Carville book. And
47:04
Speaker 2: I look at it all the time of 40 more
47:06
Speaker 2: years after 2008. And it should really be enshrined in
47:09
Speaker 2: a museum because it was about the permanent Democratic majority
47:13
Speaker 2: and how Democrats would rule the nation. for the next
47:15
Speaker 2: 40 years. And literally eight years later, Donald Trump wins
47:19
Speaker 2: the presidency. And then 16 years later, he wins the
47:23
Speaker 2: national popular vote. So one of the most debunked and
47:26
Speaker 2: discredited theories in modern politics. And I feel like a
47:30
Speaker 2: lot of the Hispanic celebration among a lot of Republicans
47:36
Speaker 2: after 2024 was the same.
47:38
Speaker 3: I will note, I literally talked about this.
47:40
Speaker 2: I said, look, One of the problems with elections is
47:44
Speaker 2: thermostatic public opinion, where people shift wildly all over the place,
47:49
Speaker 2: depending on who is in power. And so unless you
47:52
Speaker 2: actually deliver something for them, then you're really not going
47:56
Speaker 2: to have any sort of permanent electoral coalition, which is
48:01
Speaker 2: what everybody keeps trying to do.
48:02
Speaker 4: I got an even more fun one for you. In 2004,
48:05
Speaker 4: if you remember, Karl Rove said there was going to
48:07
Speaker 4: be a 50-year permanent Republican majority. 22 years later, Karl
48:12
Speaker 4: Rove himself is voting for Democrats.
48:15
Speaker 3: You're so right. Good point.
48:18
Speaker 2: Karl Rove just took to the stage at the Texas
48:21
Speaker 2: Tribune Fest and he's going to be voting Democrat for
48:23
Speaker 2: the rest of, or for the first time in his
48:26
Speaker 2: entire life.
48:27
Speaker 4: He's halfway through his permanent Republican majority and lost himself.
48:33
Speaker 3: You know, Libs, you can have Karl Rove. I've I've
48:36
Speaker 3: been around just old enough to remember.
48:41
Speaker 2: When he was the Stephen Miller and one of the
48:43
Speaker 2: most vilified aides literally in the entire nation.
48:46
Speaker 3: And I preferred it that way, personally. All right.
48:49
Speaker 2: I think we have Ro Khanna standing by.
48:51
Speaker 3: Let's get to it.